The contribution of physical fitness to individual and ethnic differences in risk markers for type 2 diabetes in children: The Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE)

BACKGROUND

The relationship between physical fitness and risk markers for type 2 diabetes (T2D) in children and the contribution to ethnic differences in these risk markers have been little studied. We examined associations between physical fitness and early risk markers for T2D and cardiovascular disease in 9- to 10-year-old UK children.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of 1445 9- to 10-year-old UK children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin. A fasting blood sample was used for measurement of insulin, glucose (from which homeostasis model assessment [HOMA]-insulin resistance [IR] was derived), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), urate, C-reactive protein (CRP), and lipids. Measurements of blood pressure (BP) and fat mass index (FMI) were made; physical activity was measured by accelerometry. Estimated VO_{2 max} was derived from a submaximal fitness step test. Associations were estimated using multilevel linear regression.

RESULTS

Higher VO_{2 max} was associated with lower FMI, insulin, HOMA-IR, HbA1c, glucose, urate, CRP, triglycerides, LDL-cholesterol, BP and higher HDL-cholesterol. Associations were reduced by adjustment for FMI, but those for insulin, HOMA-IR, glucose, urate, CRP, triglycerides and BP remained statistically significant. Higher levels of insulin and HOMA-IR in South Asian children were partially explained by lower levels of VO_2max compared to white Europeans, accounting for 11% of the difference.

CONCLUSIONS

Physical fitness is associated with risk markers for T2D and CVD in children, which persist after adjustment for adiposity. Higher levels of IR in South Asians are partially explained by lower physical fitness levels compared to white Europeans. Improving physical fitness may provide scope for reducing risks of T2D.

The Effect of Longer-Term and Exclusive Breastfeeding Promotion on Visual Outcome in Adolescence

Purpose

Breastfeeding may influence early visual development. We examined whether an intervention to promote increased duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding improves visual outcomes at 16 years of age.

Methods

Follow-up of a cluster-randomized trial in 31 Belarusian maternity hospitals/polyclinics randomized to receive a breastfeeding promotion intervention, or usual care, where 46% vs. 3% were exclusively breastfed at 3 months respectively. Low vision in either eye was defined as unaided logMAR vision of ≥0.3 or worse (equivalent to Snellen 20/40) and was used as the primary outcome. Open-field autorefraction in a subset (n = 963) suggested that 84% of those with low vision were myopic. Primary analysis was based on modified intention-to-treat, accounting for clustering within hospitals/clinics. Observational analyses also examined the effect of breastfeeding duration and exclusivity, as well as other sociodemographic and environmental determinants of low vision.

Results

A total of 13,392 of 17,046 (79%) participants were followed up at 16 years. Low vision prevalence was 19.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.5, 22.0%) in the experimental group versus 21.6% (19.5, 23.8%) in the control group. Cluster-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of low vision associated with the intervention was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.16); 0.88 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.05) after adjustment for parental and early life factors. In observational analyses, breastfeeding duration and exclusivity had no significant effect on low vision. However, maternal age at birth (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.14/5-year increase) and urban versus rural residence were associated with increased risk of low vision. Lower parental education, number of older siblings was associated with a lower risk of low vision; boys had lower risk compared with girls (0.64, 95% CI: 0.59,0.70).

Conclusions

Exclusive breastfeeding promotion had no significant effect on visual outcomes in this study, but other environmental factors showed strong associations. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01561612.)

Takeaway meal consumption and risk markers for coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and obesity in children aged 9-10 years: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between takeaway meal consumption and risk markers for coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes and obesity risk markers in children.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional, school-based observational study.

SETTING

85 primary schools across London, Birmingham and Leicester.

PARTICIPANTS

1948 UK primary school children in year 5, aged 9-10 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Children reported their frequency of takeaway meal consumption, completed a 24-hour dietary recall, had physical measurements and provided a fasting blood sample.

RESULTS

Among 1948 participants with complete data, 499 (26%) never/hardly ever consumed a takeaway meal, 894 (46%) did so <1/week and 555 (28%) did ≥1/week. In models adjusted for age, sex, month, school, ethnicity and socioeconomic status, more frequent takeaway meal consumption was associated with higher dietary intakes of energy, fat % energy and saturated fat % energy and higher energy density (all P trend <0.001) and lower starch, protein and micronutrient intakes (all P trend <0.05). A higher frequency of takeaway meal consumption was associated with higher serum total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (P trend=0.04, 0.01, respectively); children eating a takeaway meal ≥1/week had total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol 0.09 mmol/L (95% CI 0.01 to 0.18) and 0.10 mmol/L (95% CI 0.02 to 0.18) higher respectively than children never/hardly ever eating a takeaway meal; their fat mass index was also higher.

CONCLUSIONS

More frequent takeaway meal consumption in children was associated with unhealthy dietary nutrient intake patterns and potentially with adverse longer term consequences for obesity and coronary heart disease risk.

An observational study to assess if automated diabetic retinopathy image assessment software can replace one or more steps of manual imaging grading and to determine their cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Diabetic retinopathy screening in England involves labour-intensive manual grading of retinal images. Automated retinal image analysis systems (ARIASs) may offer an alternative to manual grading.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the screening performance and cost-effectiveness of ARIASs to replace level 1 human graders or pre-screen with ARIASs in the NHS diabetic eye screening programme (DESP). To examine technical issues associated with implementation.

DESIGN

Observational retrospective measurement comparison study with a real-time evaluation of technical issues and a decision-analytic model to evaluate cost-effectiveness.

SETTING

A NHS DESP.

PARTICIPANTS

Consecutive diabetic patients who attended a routine annual NHS DESP visit.

INTERVENTIONS

Retinal images were manually graded and processed by three ARIASs: iGradingM (version 1.1; originally Medalytix Group Ltd, Manchester, UK, but purchased by Digital Healthcare, Cambridge, UK, at the initiation of the study, purchased in turn by EMIS Health, Leeds, UK, after conclusion of the study), Retmarker (version 0.8.2, Retmarker Ltd, Coimbra, Portugal) and EyeArt (Eyenuk Inc., Woodland Hills, CA, USA). The final manual grade was used as the reference standard. Arbitration on a subset of discrepancies between manual grading and the use of an ARIAS by a reading centre masked to all grading was used to create a reference standard manual grade modified by arbitration.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Screening performance (sensitivity, specificity, false-positive rate and likelihood ratios) and diagnostic accuracy [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] of ARIASs. A secondary analysis explored the influence of camera type and patients' ethnicity, age and sex on screening performance. Economic analysis estimated the cost per appropriate screening outcome identified.

RESULTS

A total of 20,258 patients with 102,856 images were entered into the study. The sensitivity point estimates of the ARIASs were as follows: EyeArt 94.7% (95% CI 94.2% to 95.2%) for any retinopathy, 93.8% (95% CI 92.9% to 94.6%) for referable retinopathy and 99.6% (95% CI 97.0% to 99.9%) for proliferative retinopathy; and Retmarker 73.0% (95% CI 72.0% to 74.0%) for any retinopathy, 85.0% (95% CI 83.6% to 86.2%) for referable retinopathy and 97.9% (95% CI 94.9 to 99.1%) for proliferative retinopathy. iGradingM classified all images as either 'disease' or 'ungradable', limiting further iGradingM analysis. The sensitivity and false-positive rates for EyeArt were not affected by ethnicity, sex or camera type but sensitivity declined marginally with increasing patient age. The screening performance of Retmarker appeared to vary with patient's age, ethnicity and camera type. Both EyeArt and Retmarker were cost saving relative to manual grading either as a replacement for level 1 human grading or used prior to level 1 human grading, although the latter was less cost-effective. A threshold analysis testing the highest ARIAS cost per patient before which ARIASs became more expensive per appropriate outcome than human grading, when used to replace level 1 grader, was Retmarker £3.82 and EyeArt £2.71 per patient.

LIMITATIONS

The non-randomised study design limited the health economic analysis but the same retinal images were processed by all ARIASs in this measurement comparison study.

CONCLUSIONS

Retmarker and EyeArt achieved acceptable sensitivity for referable retinopathy and false-positive rates (compared with human graders as reference standard) and appear to be cost-effective alternatives to a purely manual grading approach. Future work is required to develop technical specifications to optimise deployment and address potential governance issues.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme, a Fight for Sight Grant (Hirsch grant award) and the Department of Health's NIHR Biomedical Research Centre for Ophthalmology at Moorfields Eye Hospital and the University College London Institute of Ophthalmology.

Reassessing Ethnic Differences in Mean BMI and Changes Between 2007 and 2013 in English Children

OBJECTIVE

National body fatness (BF) data for English South Asian and Black children use BMI, which provides inaccurate ethnic comparisons. BF levels and time trends in the English National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) between 2007 and 2013 were assessed by using ethnic-specific adjusted BMI (aBMI) for South Asian and Black children.

METHODS

Analyses were based on 3,195,323 children aged 4 to 5 years and 2,962,673 children aged 10 to 11 years. aBMI values for South Asian and Black children (relating to BF as in White children) were derived independently. Mean aBMI levels and 5-year aBMI changes were obtained by using linear regression.

RESULTS

In the 2007-2008 NCMP, mean aBMIs in 10- to 11-year-old children (boys, girls) were higher in South Asian children (20.1, 19.9 kg/m² ) and Black girls, but not in Black boys (18.4, 19.2 kg/m² ) when compared with White children (18.6, 19.0 kg/m² ; all P < 0.001). Mean 5-year changes (boys, girls) were higher in South Asian children (0.16, 0.32 kg/m² per 5 y; both P < 0.001) and Black boys but not girls (0.13, 0.15 kg/m² per 5 y; P = 0.01, P = 0.41) compared with White children (0.02, 0.11 kg/m² per 5 y). Ethnic differences at 4 to 5 years were similar. Unadjusted BMI showed similar 5-year changes but different mean BMI patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

BF levels were higher in South Asian children than in other groups in 2007 and diverged from those in White children until 2013, a pattern not apparent from unadjusted BMI data.

Comparisons of depression, anxiety, well-being, and perceptions of the built environment amongst adults seeking social, intermediate and market-rent accommodation in the former London Olympic Athletes' Village

The Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Living Environments in London (ENABLE London) study provides a unique opportunity to examine differences in mental health and well-being amongst adults seeking social, intermediate (affordable rent), and market-rent housing in a purpose built neighbourhood (East Village, the former London 2012 Olympic Athletes' Village), specifically designed to encourage positive health behaviours. Multi-level logistic regression models examined baseline differences in levels of depression, anxiety and well-being across the housing groups. Compared with the intermediate group, those seeking social housing were more likely to be depressed, anxious and had poorer well-being after adjustment for demographic and health status variables. Further adjustments for neighbourhood perceptions suggest that compared with the intermediate group, perceived neighbourhood characteristics may be an important determinant of depression amongst those seeking social housing, and lower levels of happiness the previous day amongst those seeking market-rent housing. These findings add to the extensive literature on inequalities in health, and provide a strong basis for future longitudinal work that will examine change in depression, anxiety and well-being after moving into East Village, where those seeking social housing potentially have the most to gain.

Automated arteriole and venule classification using deep learning for retinal images from the UK Biobank cohort

The morphometric characteristics of the retinal vasculature are associated with future risk of many systemic and vascular diseases. However, analysis of data from large population based studies is needed to help resolve uncertainties in some of these associations. This requires automated systems that extract quantitative measures of vessel morphology from large numbers of retinal images. Associations between retinal vessel morphology and disease precursors/outcomes may be similar or opposing for arterioles and venules. Therefore, the accurate detection of the vessel type is an important element in such automated systems. This paper presents a deep learning approach for the automatic classification of arterioles and venules across the entire retinal image, including vessels located at the optic disc. This comprises of a convolutional neural network whose architecture contains six learned layers: three convolutional and three fully-connected. Complex patterns are automatically learnt from the data, which avoids the use of hand crafted features. The method is developed and evaluated using 835,914 centreline pixels derived from 100 retinal images selected from the 135,867 retinal images obtained at the UK Biobank (large population-based cohort study of middle aged and older adults) baseline examination. This is a challenging dataset in respect to image quality and hence arteriole/venule classification is required to be highly robust. The method achieves a significant increase in accuracy of 8.1% when compared to the baseline method, resulting in an arteriole/venule classification accuracy of 86.97% (per pixel basis) over the entire retinal image.

Sleep Duration and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Associations between sleep duration and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk markers in childhood have been little studied. We examined associations between self-reported sleep duration and T2D risk markers in children.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of 4525 multiethnic UK children aged 9 to 10 years. Sleep time was calculated from self-reported usual time of going to bed and getting up on a school day, validated in a subset using accelerometers. Fasting blood samples provided levels of serum lipids and insulin, plasma glucose, and HbA1c. Physical measures included height, weight, bioimpedance, and blood pressure. Multilevel linear regression models of anthropometric, T2D, and cardiovascular risk markers with sleep duration were adjusted for sex, age, month, ethnicity, socioeconomic position, observer (physical measures only), and random effect of school.

RESULTS

On average, children slept 10.5 hours per night (95% range 8.0-12.0 hours). There were strong inverse graded relationships between sleep duration, adiposity, and diabetes risk markers. In adjusted models, a 1-hour-longer sleep duration was associated with 0.19 lower BMI (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.09 to 0.28), 0.03 kg/m⁵ lower fat mass index (95% CI 0.00 to 0.05 kg/m⁵), 2.9% lower homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (95% CI 1.2% to 4.4%), and 0.24% lower fasting glucose (95% CI 0.03% to 0.44%); there was no association with HbA1c or cardiovascular risk. Associations with insulin and glucose remained after an additional adjustment for adiposity markers.

CONCLUSIONS

The finding of an inverse association between sleep duration and T2D risk markers in childhood is novel. Intervention studies are needed to establish the causality of these associations, which could provide a simple strategy for early T2D prevention.

Screen time is associated with adiposity and insulin resistance in children

BACKGROUND

Higher screen time is associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk in adults, but the association with T2D risk markers in children is unclear. We examined associations between self-reported screen time and T2D risk markers in children.

METHODS

Survey of 4495 children aged 9-10 years who had fasting cardiometabolic risk marker assessments, anthropometry measurements and reported daily screen time; objective physical activity was measured in a subset of 2031 children.

RESULTS

Compared with an hour or less screen time daily, those reporting screen time over 3 hours had higher ponderal index (1.9%, 95% CI 0.5% to 3.4%), skinfold thickness (4.5%, 0.2% to 8.8%), fat mass index (3.3%, 0.0% to 6.7%), leptin (9.2%, 1.1% to 18.0%) and insulin resistance (10.5%, 4.9% to 16.4%); associations with glucose, HbA1c, physical activity and cardiovascular risk markers were weak or absent. Associations with insulin resistance remained after adjustment for adiposity, socioeconomic markers and physical activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Strong graded associations between screen time, adiposity and insulin resistance suggest that reducing screen time could facilitate early T2D prevention. While these observations are of considerable public health interest, evidence from randomised controlled trials is needed to suggest causality.

Automated Diabetic Retinopathy Image Assessment Software: Diagnostic Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness Compared with Human Graders

OBJECTIVE

With the increasing prevalence of diabetes, annual screening for diabetic retinopathy (DR) by expert human grading of retinal images is challenging. Automated DR image assessment systems (ARIAS) may provide clinically effective and cost-effective detection of retinopathy. We aimed to determine whether ARIAS can be safely introduced into DR screening pathways to replace human graders.

DESIGN

Observational measurement comparison study of human graders following a national screening program for DR versus ARIAS.

PARTICIPANTS

Retinal images from 20 258 consecutive patients attending routine annual diabetic eye screening between June 1, 2012, and November 4, 2013.

METHODS

Retinal images were manually graded following a standard national protocol for DR screening and were processed by 3 ARIAS: iGradingM, Retmarker, and EyeArt. Discrepancies between manual grades and ARIAS results were sent to a reading center for arbitration.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Screening performance (sensitivity, false-positive rate) and diagnostic accuracy (95% confidence intervals of screening-performance measures) were determined. Economic analysis estimated the cost per appropriate screening outcome.

RESULTS

Sensitivity point estimates (95% confidence intervals) of the ARIAS were as follows: EyeArt 94.7% (94.2%-95.2%) for any retinopathy, 93.8% (92.9%-94.6%) for referable retinopathy (human graded as either ungradable, maculopathy, preproliferative, or proliferative), 99.6% (97.0%-99.9%) for proliferative retinopathy; Retmarker 73.0% (72.0 %-74.0%) for any retinopathy, 85.0% (83.6%-86.2%) for referable retinopathy, 97.9% (94.9%-99.1%) for proliferative retinopathy. iGradingM classified all images as either having disease or being ungradable. EyeArt and Retmarker saved costs compared with manual grading both as a replacement for initial human grading and as a filter prior to primary human grading, although the latter approach was less cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Retmarker and EyeArt systems achieved acceptable sensitivity for referable retinopathy when compared with that of human graders and had sufficient specificity to make them cost-effective alternatives to manual grading alone. ARIAS have the potential to reduce costs in developed-world health care economies and to aid delivery of DR screening in developing or remote health care settings.

Cohort profile: Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Living Environments in London: the ENABLE London-Olympic Park cohort

PURPOSE

The Examining Neighbourhood Activities in Built Living Environments in London (ENABLE London) project is a natural experiment which aims to establish whether physical activity and other health behaviours show sustained changes among individuals and families relocating to East Village (formerly the London 2012 Olympics Athletes' Village), when compared with a control population living outside East Village throughout.

PARTICIPANTS

Between January 2013 and December 2015, 1497 individuals from 1006 households were recruited and assessed (at baseline) (including 392 households seeking social housing, 421 seeking intermediate and 193 seeking market rent homes). The 2-year follow-up rate is 62% of households to date, of which 57% have moved to East Village.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Assessments of physical activity (measured objectively using accelerometers) combined with Global Positioning System technology and Geographic Information System mapping of the local area are being used to characterise physical activity patterns and location among study participants and assess the attributes of the environments to which they are exposed. Assessments of body composition, based on weight, height and bioelectrical impedance, have been made and detailed participant questionnaires provide information on socioeconomic position, general health/health status, well-being, anxiety, depression, attitudes to leisure time activities and other personal, social and environmental influences on physical activity, including the use of recreational space and facilities in their residential neighbourhood.

FUTURE PLANS

The main analyses will examine the changes in physical activity, health and well-being observed in the East Village group compared with controls and the influence of specific elements of the built environment on observed changes. The ENABLE London project exploits a unique opportunity to evaluate a 'natural experiment', provided by the building and rapid occupation of East Village. Findings from the study will be generalisable to other urban residential housing developments, and will help inform future evidence-based urban planning.

Cross-sectional study of ethnic differences in physical fitness among children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE)

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about levels of physical fitness in children from different ethnic groups in the UK. We therefore studied physical fitness in UK children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Primary schools in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

1625 children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin in the UK studied between 2006 and 2007.

OUTCOME MEASURES

A step test assessed submaximal physical fitness from which estimated VO2 max was derived. Ethnic differences in estimated VO2 max were estimated using multilevel linear regression allowing for clustering at school level and adjusting for age, sex and month as fixed effects.

RESULTS

The study response rate was 63%. In adjusted analyses, boys had higher levels of estimated VO2 max than girls (mean difference 3.06 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 2.66 to 3.47, p<0.0001). Levels of estimated VO2 max were lower in South Asians than those in white Europeans (mean difference -0.79 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI -1.41 to -0.18, p=0.01); levels of estimated VO2 max in black African-Caribbeans were higher than those in white Europeans (mean difference 0.60 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 0.02 to 1.17, p=0.04); these patterns were similar in boys and girls. The lower estimated VO2 max in South Asians, compared to white Europeans, was consistent among Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi children and was attenuated by 78% after adjustment for objectively measured physical activity (average daily steps).

CONCLUSIONS

South Asian children have lower levels of physical fitness than white Europeans and black African-Caribbeans in the UK. This ethnic difference in physical fitness is at least partly explained by ethnic differences in physical activity.

Fruit, vegetable and vitamin C intakes and plasma vitamin C: cross-sectional associations with insulin resistance and glycaemia in 9-10 year-old children

AIM

To examine whether low circulating vitamin C concentrations and low fruit and vegetable intakes were associated with insulin resistance and other Type 2 diabetes risk markers in childhood.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional, school-based study in 2025 UK children aged 9-10 years, predominantly of white European, South-Asian and black African origin. A 24-h dietary recall was used to assess fruit, vegetable and vitamin C intakes. Height, weight and fat mass were measured and a fasting blood sample collected to measure plasma vitamin C concentrations and Type 2 diabetes risk markers.

RESULTS

In analyses adjusting for confounding variables (including socio-economic status), a one interquartile range higher plasma vitamin C concentration (30.9 μmol/l) was associated with a 9.6% (95% CI 6.5, 12.6%) lower homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance value, 0.8% (95% CI 0.4, 1.2%) lower fasting glucose, 4.5% (95% CI 3.2, 5.9%) lower urate and 2.2% (95% CI 0.9, 3.4%) higher HDL cholesterol. HbA1c concentration was 0.6% (95% CI 0.2, 1.0%) higher. Dietary fruit, vegetable and total vitamin C intakes were not associated with any Type 2 diabetes risk markers. Lower plasma vitamin C concentrations in South-Asian and black African-Caribbean children could partly explain their higher insulin resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower plasma vitamin C concentrations are associated with insulin resistance and could partly explain ethnic differences in insulin resistance. Experimental studies are needed to establish whether increasing plasma vitamin C can help prevent Type 2 diabetes at an early stage.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of childhood myopia, a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis: implications for aetiology and early prevention

The aim of this review was to quantify the global variation in childhood myopia prevalence over time taking account of demographic and study design factors. A systematic review identified population-based surveys with estimates of childhood myopia prevalence published by February 2015. Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log odds of myopia was used to examine the association with age, gender, urban versus rural setting and survey year, among populations of different ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. 143 published articles (42 countries, 374 349 subjects aged 1–18 years, 74 847 myopia cases) were included. Increase in myopia prevalence with age varied by ethnicity. East Asians showed the highest prevalence, reaching 69% (95% credible intervals (CrI) 61% to 77%) at 15 years of age (86% among Singaporean-Chinese). Blacks in Africa had the lowest prevalence; 5.5% at 15 years (95% CrI 3% to 9%). Time trends in myopia prevalence over the last decade were small in whites, increased by 23% in East Asians, with a weaker increase among South Asians. Children from urban environments have 2.6 times the odds of myopia compared with those from rural environments. In whites and East Asians sex differences emerge at about 9 years of age; by late adolescence girls are twice as likely as boys to be myopic. Marked ethnic differences in age-specific prevalence of myopia exist. Rapid increases in myopia prevalence over time, particularly in East Asians, combined with a universally higher risk of myopia in urban settings, suggest that environmental factors play an important role in myopia development, which may offer scope for prevention.

Automated retinal vessel recognition and measurements on large datasets

The characteristics of the retinal vascular network have been prospectively associated with many systemic and vascular diseases. QUARTZ is a fully automated software that has been developed to localize and quantify the morphological characteristics of blood vessels in retinal images for use in epidemiological studies. This software was used to analyse a dataset containing 16,000 retinal images from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study. The objective of this paper is to both assess the suitability of this dataset for computational analysis and to further evaluate the QUARTZ software.

Inter-Relationship between Rhinitis and Conjunctivitis in Allergic Rhinoconjunctivitis and Associated Risk Factors in Rural UK Children

Objective

Allergic conjunctivitis (AC) is a common condition, especially in childhood. The extent to which it occurs concurrently with or independently from allergic rhinitis (AR) has not been well described.

Aim

To examine the inter-relationship between rhinitis and conjunctivitis and the epidemiological risk factors for these conditions in a rural UK population.

Methods

Cross-sectional study of rural school children (aged 5–11 years). Parental questionnaires were used to diagnose allergic outcomes (including conjunctivitis, rhinitis and rhinoconjunctivitis), and to collect data on atopic history, demographic and environmental exposures. Odds ratios of allergic outcome by exposure were examined adjusted for age, sex, breastfeeding, family history of allergy, number of older and younger siblings.

Results

Prevalence of conjunctivitis was 17.5%, rhinitis 15.1% and rhinoconjunctivitis 13.0%. Seasonality of symptoms varied by condition: 64.7% of those with conjunctivitis had seasonal symptoms (April-Sept only), 46.7% of those with rhinitis and 92.2% of those with rhinoconjunctivitis. Living on a farm consistently reduced the risk of conjunctivitis (odds ratio 0.47, 95%CI 0.29–0.79, p = 0.004), rhinitis (OR 0.57, 95%CI 0.33–1.01, p = 0.05) and rhinoconjunctivitis (OR 0.57, 95%CI 0.32–1.03, p = 0.06). Exposure to farm animals (particularly in early life), current consumption of unpasteurised milk and playing in a barn or stable significantly reduced the risk of all three conditions.

Conclusion

More children had parent-reported conjunctivitis than rhinitis. The majority of children with either condition also reported symptoms with the other condition. Farmers’ children have less eye and/or nasal symptoms. A number of farming variables linked with the farm microbial environment are likely to be mediating the protective effect.

Body mass index in early and middle adult life: prospective associations with myocardial infarction, stroke and diabetes over a 30-year period: the British Regional Heart Study

OBJECTIVES

Adiposity in middle age is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes; less is known about the impact of adiposity from early adult life. We examined the effects of high body mass index (BMI) in early and middle adulthood on myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and diabetes risks.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

7735 men with BMI measured in middle age (40-59 years) and BMI ascertained at 21 years from military records or participant recall.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

30-year follow-up data for type 2 diabetes, MI and stroke incidence; Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the effect of BMI at both ages on these outcomes, adjusted for age and smoking status.

RESULTS

Among 4846 (63%) men (with complete data), a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI at 21 years was associated with a 6% (95% CI 4% to 9%) higher type 2 diabetes risk, compared with a 21% (95% CI 18% to 24%) higher diabetes risk for a 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI in middle age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.24). Higher BMI in middle age was associated with a 6% (95% CI 4% to 8%) increase in MI and a 4% (95% CI 1% to 7%) increase in stroke; BMI at 21 years showed no associations with MI or stroke risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher BMI at 21 years of age is associated with later diabetes incidence but not MI or stroke, while higher BMI in middle age is strongly associated with all outcomes. Early obesity prevention may reduce later type 2 diabetes risk, more than MI and stroke.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG): a systematic review and meta-analysis

Systematic review of published population based surveys to examine the relationship between primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) prevalence and demographic factors. A literature search identified population-based studies with quantitative estimates of POAG prevalence (to October 2014). Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log-odds of POAG was used to examine the effect of age and gender among populations of different geographical and ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. Eighty-one studies were included (37 countries, 216 214 participants, 5266 POAG cases). Black populations showed highest POAG prevalence, with 5.2% (95% credible interval (CrI) 3.7%, 7.2%) at 60 years, rising to 12.2% (95% CrI 8.9% to 16.6%) at 80 years. Increase in POAG prevalence per decade of age was greatest among Hispanics (2.31, 95% CrI 2.12, 2.52) and White populations (1.99, 95% CrI 1.86, 2.12), and lowest in East and South Asians (1.48, 95% CrI 1.39, 1.57; 1.56, 95% CrI 1.31, 1.88, respectively). Men were more likely to have POAG than women (1.30, 95% CrI 1.22, 1.41). Older studies had lower POAG prevalence, which was related to the inclusion of intraocular pressure in the glaucoma definition. Studies with visual field data on all participants had a higher POAG prevalence than those with visual field data on a subset. Globally 57.5 million people (95% CI 46.4 to 73.1 million) were affected by POAG in 2015, rising to 65.5 million (95% CrI 52.8, 83.2 million) by 2020. This systematic review provides the most precise estimates of POAG prevalence and shows omitting routine visual field assessment in population surveys may have affected case ascertainment. Our findings will be useful to future studies and healthcare planning.

Incidence of Late-Stage Age-Related Macular Degeneration in American Whites: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PURPOSE

To estimate incidence of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) by subtype in American whites aged ≥50 years.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

SETTING

Prospective cohort studies of AMD incidence in populations of white European ancestry published in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science.

STUDY POPULATION

Fourteen publications in 10 populations that examined AMD incident cases were identified.

OBSERVATION PROCEDURE

Data on age-sex-specific incidence of late AMD, geographic atrophy (GA) and neovascular AMD (NVAMD), year of recruitment, AMD grading method, and continent were extracted.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Annual incidence of late AMD, GA, and NVAMD by age-sex in American whites aged ≥50 years from a Bayesian meta-analysis of incidence studies was compared with incidence extrapolated from published prevalence estimates.

RESULTS

Incidence rates from the review agreed with those derived from prevalence, but the latter were based on more data, especially at older ages and by AMD subtypes. Annual incidence (estimated from prevalence) of late AMD in American whites was 3.5 per 1000 aged ≥50 years (95% credible interval 2.5, 4.7 per 1000), equivalent to 293 000 new cases in American whites per year (95% credible interval 207 000, 400 000). Incidence rates approximately quadrupled per decade in age. Annual incidence GA rates were 1.9 per 1000 aged ≥50 years, NVAMD rates were 1.8 per 1000. Late AMD incidence was 38% higher in women vs men (95% credible interval 6%, 82%).

CONCLUSIONS

Estimating AMD incidence from prevalence allows better characterization at older ages and by AMD subtype where longitudinal data from incidence studies are limited.

A study of whether automated Diabetic Retinopathy Image Assessment could replace manual grading steps in the English National Screening Programme

OBJECTIVES

Diabetic retinopathy screening in England involves labour intensive manual grading of digital retinal images. We present the plan for an observational retrospective study of whether automated systems could replace one or more steps of human grading.

METHODS

Patients aged 12 or older who attended the Diabetes Eye Screening programme, Homerton University Hospital (London) between 1 June 2012 and 4 November 2013 had macular and disc-centred retinal images taken. All screening episodes were manually graded and will additionally be graded by three automated systems. Each system will process all screening episodes, and screening performance (sensitivity, false positive rate, likelihood ratios) and diagnostic accuracy (95% confidence intervals of screening performance measures) will be quantified. A sub-set of gradings will be validated by an approved Reading Centre. Additional analyses will explore the effect of altering thresholds for disease detection within each automated system on screening performance.

RESULTS

2,782/20,258 diabetes patients were referred to ophthalmologists for further examination. Prevalence of maculopathy (M1), pre-proliferative retinopathy (R2), and proliferative retinopathy (R3) were 7.9%, 3.1% and 1.2%, respectively; 4749 (23%) patients were diagnosed with background retinopathy (R1); 1.5% were considered ungradable by human graders.

CONCLUSIONS

Retinopathy prevalence was similar to other English diabetic screening programmes, so findings should be generalizable. The study population size will allow the detection of differences in screening performance between the human and automated grading systems as small as 2%. The project will compare performance and economic costs of manual versus automated systems.

Birthweight and risk markers for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in childhood: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Lower birthweight (a marker of fetal undernutrition) is associated with higher risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and could explain ethnic differences in these diseases. We examined associations between birthweight and risk markers for diabetes and CVD in UK-resident white European, South Asian and black African-Caribbean children.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study of risk markers for diabetes and CVD in 9- to 10-year-old children of different ethnic origins, birthweight was obtained from health records and/or parental recall. Associations between birthweight and risk markers were estimated using multilevel linear regression to account for clustering in children from the same school.

RESULTS

Key data were available for 3,744 (66%) singleton study participants. In analyses adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity, birthweight was inversely associated with serum urate and positively associated with systolic BP. After additional height adjustment, lower birthweight (per 100 g) was associated with higher serum urate (0.52%; 95% CI 0.38, 0.66), fasting serum insulin (0.41%; 95% CI 0.08, 0.74), HbA1c (0.04%; 95% CI 0.00, 0.08), plasma glucose (0.06%; 95% CI 0.02, 0.10) and serum triacylglycerol (0.30%; 95% CI 0.09, 0.51) but not with BP or blood cholesterol. Birthweight was lower among children of South Asian (231 g lower; 95% CI 183, 280) and black African-Caribbean origin (81 g lower; 95% CI 30, 132). However, adjustment for birthweight had no effect on ethnic differences in risk markers.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Birthweight was inversely associated with urate and with insulin and glycaemia after adjustment for current height. Lower birthweight does not appear to explain emerging ethnic difference in risk markers for diabetes.

No evidence for genome-wide interactions on plasma fibrinogen by smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index: results from meta-analyses of 80,607 subjects

Plasma fibrinogen is an acute phase protein playing an important role in the blood coagulation cascade having strong associations with smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI). Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a variety of gene regions associated with elevated plasma fibrinogen concentrations. However, little is yet known about how associations between environmental factors and fibrinogen might be modified by genetic variation. Therefore, we conducted large-scale meta-analyses of genome-wide interaction studies to identify possible interactions of genetic variants and smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI on fibrinogen concentration. The present study included 80,607 subjects of European ancestry from 22 studies. Genome-wide interaction analyses were performed separately in each study for about 2.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the 22 autosomal chromosomes. For each SNP and risk factor, we performed a linear regression under an additive genetic model including an interaction term between SNP and risk factor. Interaction estimates were meta-analysed using a fixed-effects model. No genome-wide significant interaction with smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI was observed in the meta-analyses. The most suggestive interaction was found for smoking and rs10519203, located in the LOC123688 region on chromosome 15, with a p value of 6.2×10⁻⁸. This large genome-wide interaction study including 80,607 participants found no strong evidence of interaction between genetic variants and smoking status, alcohol consumption or BMI on fibrinogen concentrations. Further studies are needed to yield deeper insight in the interplay between environmental factors and gene variants on the regulation of fibrinogen concentrations.

Regular breakfast consumption and type 2 diabetes risk markers in 9- to 10-year-old children in the child heart and health study in England (CHASE): a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

Regular breakfast consumption may protect against type 2 diabetes risk in adults but little is known about its influence on type 2 diabetes risk markers in children. We investigated the associations between breakfast consumption (frequency and content) and risk markers for type 2 diabetes (particularly insulin resistance and glycaemia) and cardiovascular disease in children.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a cross-sectional study of 4,116 UK primary school children aged 9-10 years. Participants provided information on breakfast frequency, had measurements of body composition, and gave fasting blood samples for measurements of blood lipids, insulin, glucose, and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). A subgroup of 2,004 children also completed a 24-hour dietary recall. Among 4,116 children studied, 3,056 (74%) ate breakfast daily, 450 (11%) most days, 372 (9%) some days, and 238 (6%) not usually. Graded associations between breakfast frequency and risk markers were observed; children who reported not usually having breakfast had higher fasting insulin (percent difference 26.4%, 95% CI 16.6%-37.0%), insulin resistance (percent difference 26.7%, 95% CI 17.0%-37.2%), HbA1c (percent difference 1.2%, 95% CI 0.4%-2.0%), glucose (percent difference 1.0%, 95% CI 0.0%-2.0%), and urate (percent difference 6%, 95% CI 3%-10%) than those who reported having breakfast daily; these differences were little affected by adjustment for adiposity, socioeconomic status, and physical activity levels. When the higher levels of triglyceride, systolic blood pressure, and C-reactive protein for those who usually did not eat breakfast relative to those who ate breakfast daily were adjusted for adiposity, the differences were no longer significant. Children eating a high fibre cereal breakfast had lower insulin resistance than those eating other breakfast types (p for heterogeneity <0.01). Differences in nutrient intakes between breakfast frequency groups did not account for the differences in type 2 diabetes markers.

CONCLUSIONS

Children who ate breakfast daily, particularly a high fibre cereal breakfast, had a more favourable type 2 diabetes risk profile. Trials are needed to quantify the protective effect of breakfast on emerging type 2 diabetes risk. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.