Identifying correlations driven by influential observations in large datasets

Although high-throughput data allow researchers to interrogate thousands of variables simultaneously, it can also introduce a significant number of spurious results. Here we demonstrate that correlation analysis of large datasets can yield numerous false positives due to the presence of outliers that canonical methods fail to identify. We present Correlations Under The InfluencE (CUTIE), an open-source jackknifing-based method to detect such cases with both parametric and non-parametric correlation measures, and which can also uniquely rescue correlations not originally deemed significant or with incorrect sign. Our approach can additionally be used to identify variables or samples that induce these false correlations in high proportion. A meta-analysis of various omics datasets using CUTIE reveals that this issue is pervasive across different domains, although microbiome data are particularly susceptible to it. Although the significance of a correlation eventually depends on the thresholds used, our approach provides an efficient way to automatically identify those that warrant closer examination in very large datasets.

Transcatheter mitral valve repair for functional mitral regurgitation: Evaluating the evidence

OBJECTIVES

Two trials (Cardiovascular Outcomes Assessment of the MitraClip Percutaneous Therapy for Heart Failure Patients with Functional Mitral Regurgitation Trial and Percutaneous Repair with the MitraClip Device for Severe Functional/Secondary Mitral Regurgitation Trial) were published in 2018 evaluating the effectiveness and safety of transcatheter repair for patients with heart failure with significant functional mitral regurgitation, which yielded different results. This article reviews the strength of the evidence, differences in trial designs, ethical and implementation implications, and delineates future research needs to help guide the appropriate dissemination of transcatheter repair for functional patients with mitral regurgitation.

METHODS

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened a workshop of interdisciplinary experts to address these objectives.

RESULTS

Transcatheter repair of functional mitral regurgitation can provide significant benefits in terms of heart failure hospitalizations, survival, and quality of life when appropriate heart failure candidates with moderate to severe or severe mitral regurgitation while on optimal guideline-directed medical therapy can be identified. Key ingredients for success are preoperative evaluation and management and postoperative care by an interdisciplinary heart team.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the discordance observed between trials, ongoing innovation in patient management, and potential expansion of indications for use, the evidence base must be expanded to optimize appropriate implementation of this complex therapy. This will require more complete capture of outcome data in real-world settings for all eligible candidates whether or not they receive this therapy. Inevitably, the indications for use of this therapy will expand, as will the devices and therapeutic approaches for this population, necessitating the study of comparative effectiveness through randomized trials or observational studies. Moreover, given the substantial variations in care delivery, conducting implementation research to delineate characteristics of the optimal care model would be of benefit.

High Levels of Psychological Resilience Are Associated With Decreased Anxiety in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

BACKGROUND

Anxiety and depression are comorbid disorders with IBD and are associated with poor outcomes. Resilience is an innate but modifiable trait that may improve the symptoms of psychological disorders. Increasing resilience may decrease the severity of these comorbid disorders, which may improve IBD outcomes. The aim of this study was to describe the association between resilience, anxiety, and depression in IBD patients.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study of IBD patients. Patients completed a questionnaire consisting of the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC), a measure of resilience, the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7 (GAD-7), and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. Primary outcome was severity of anxiety and depression in patients with high resilience. Multivariable linear regression analysis evaluated the association between severity of anxiety and depression and level of resilience.

RESULTS

A sample of 288 patients was analyzed. Bivariable linear regression analysis showed a negative association between resilience and anxiety (Pearson rho = -0.47; P < .0001) and between resilience and depression (Pearson rho = -0.53; P < .0001). Multivariable linear regression indicated that high resilience is independently associated with lower anxiety and that for every 1-unit increase in CD-RISC, the GAD-7 score decreased by 0.04 units (P = .0003). Unlike anxiety, the association between resilience and depression did not remain statistically significant on multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

High resilience is independently associated with lower anxiety in IBD patients, and we report a quantifiable decrease in anxiety score severity for every point of increase in resilience score. These findings suggest that IBD patients with higher resilience may have better coping mechanisms that buffer against the development of anxiety.

Impact of the KCNQ2/3 Channel Opener Ezogabine on Reward Circuit Activity and Clinical Symptoms in Depression: Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVE

Preclinical studies point to the KCNQ2/3 potassium channel as a novel target for the treatment of depression and anhedonia, a reduced ability to experience pleasure. The authors conducted the first randomized placebo-controlled trial testing the effect of the KCNQ2/3 positive modulator ezogabine on reward circuit activity and clinical outcomes in patients with depression.

METHODS

Depressed individuals (N=45) with elevated levels of anhedonia were assigned to a 5-week treatment period with ezogabine (900 mg/day; N=21) or placebo (N=24). Participants underwent functional MRI during a reward flanker task at baseline and following treatment. Clinical measures of depression and anhedonia were collected at weekly visits. The primary endpoint was the change from baseline to week 5 in ventral striatum activation during reward anticipation. Secondary endpoints included depression and anhedonia severity as measured using the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) and the Snaith-Hamilton Pleasure Scale (SHAPS), respectively.

RESULTS

The study did not meet its primary neuroimaging endpoint. Participants in the ezogabine group showed a numerical increase in ventral striatum response to reward anticipation following treatment compared with participants in the placebo group from baseline to week 5. Compared with placebo, ezogabine was associated with a significantly larger improvement in MADRS and SHAPS scores and other clinical endpoints. Ezogabine was well tolerated, and no serious adverse events occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

The study did not meet its primary neuroimaging endpoint, although the effect of treatment was significant on several secondary clinical endpoints. In aggregate, the findings may suggest that future studies of the KCNQ2/3 channel as a novel treatment target for depression and anhedonia are warranted.

Identifying Behavioral Phenotypes in Chronic Illness: Self-Management of COPD and Comorbid Hypertension

OBJECTIVES

To identify and characterize the constellation, or clusters, of self-management behaviors in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and comorbid hypertension.

METHODS

Cluster analysis (n = 204) was performed with standardized scores for medication adherence to COPD and hypertension medications, inhaler technique, and diet as well as self-reported information on physical activity, appointment keeping, smoking status, and yearly influenza vaccination for a total of eight variables. Classification and regression tree analysis (CART) was performed to further characterize the resulting clusters.

RESULTS

Patients were divided into three clusters based on eight self-management behaviors, which included 95 patients in cluster 1, 42 in cluster 2, and 67 in cluster 3. All behaviors except for inhaler technique differed significantly among the three clusters (P's<0.005). CART indicated physical activity was the first differentiating variable.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with COPD and hypertensioncan be separated into those with adequate and inadequate adherence. The group with inadequate adherence can further be divided into those with poor adherence to medical behaviors compared to those with poor adherence to lifestyle behaviors.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Once validated in other populations, the identification of patient clusters using patient self-management behaviors could be used to inform interventions for patients with multimorbidity.

Progression of Tricuspid Regurgitation After Surgery for Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation

BACKGROUND

Whether to repair nonsevere tricuspid regurgitation (TR) during surgery for ischemic mitral valve regurgitation (IMR) remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to investigate the incidence, predictors, and clinical significance of TR progression and presence of ≥moderate TR after IMR surgery.

METHODS

Patients (n = 492) with untreated nonsevere TR within 2 prospectively randomized IMR trials were included. Key outcomes were TR progression (either progression by ≥2 grades, surgery for TR, or severe TR at 2 years) and presence of ≥moderate TR at 2 years.

RESULTS

Patients' mean age was 66 ± 10 years (67% male), and TR distribution was 60% ≤trace, 31% mild, and 9% moderate. Among 2-year survivors, TR progression occurred in 20 (6%) of 325 patients. Baseline tricuspid annular diameter (TAD) was not predictive of TR progression. At 2 years, 37 (11%) of 323 patients had ≥moderate TR. Baseline TR grade, indexed TAD, and surgical ablation for atrial fibrillation were independent predictors of ≥moderate TR. However, TAD alone had poor discrimination (area under the curve, ≤0.65). Presence of ≥moderate TR at 2 years was higher in patients with MR recurrence (20% vs. 9%; p = 0.02) and a permanent pacemaker/defibrillator (19% vs. 9%; p = 0.01). Clinical event rates (composite of ≥1 New York Heart Association functional class increase, heart failure hospitalization, mitral valve surgery, and stroke) were higher in patients with TR progression (55% vs. 23%; p = 0.003) and ≥moderate TR at 2 years (38% vs. 22%; p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

After IMR surgery, progression of unrepaired nonsevere TR is uncommon. Baseline TAD is not predictive of TR progression and is poorly discriminative of ≥moderate TR at 2 years. TR progression and presence of ≥moderate TR are associated with clinical events. (Comparing the Effectiveness of a Mitral Valve Repair Procedure in Combination With Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting [CABG] Versus CABG Alone in People With Moderate Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation, NCT00806988; Comparing the Effectiveness of Repairing Versus Replacing the Heart's Mitral Valve in People With Severe Chronic Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation, NCT00807040).

Role of nitric oxide signaling in the antidepressant mechanism of action of ketamine: A randomized controlled trial

Ketamine is an N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist with rapid antidepressant effects. Studies suggest that inhibition of nitric oxide synthesis plays a role in the mechanism of action of ketamine. This randomized, placebo-controlled study investigated whether co-administration of sodium nitroprusside, a nitric oxide donor, compared to placebo, would attenuate the antidepressant and dissociative effects of ketamine. Sixteen ketamine responders were randomized to a double-blind infusion of ketamine co-administered with placebo or sodium nitroprusside. Our findings show no difference between the two conditions suggesting that the nitric oxide pathway may not play a primary role in ketamine's antidepressant or dissociative effects. The study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03102736).

Strategies of Wait-listing for Heart Transplant vs Durable Mechanical Circulatory Support Alone for Patients With Advanced Heart Failure

Importance

Given the shortage of donor hearts and improvement in outcomes with left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy, a relevant but, to date, unanswered question is whether select patients with advanced heart failure should receive LVAD destination therapy as an alternative to heart transplant.

Objective

To determine whether a strategy of LVAD destination therapy is associated with similar survival benefit as wait-listing for heart transplant with or without LVAD therapy among patients with advanced heart failure.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective propensity-matched cohort analysis used data on heart transplants from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry and LVAD implants from the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2014. The matched LVAD destination therapy cohort included 3411 patients. Data analysis for this study was conducted from December 22, 2017, to May 24, 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Survival at 5 years was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

In total, 8281 patients had albumin level, creatinine level, and BMI data recorded and were included in the analysis. Despite propensity score matching, the 3411 patients receiving LVAD destination therapy still tended to be slightly older than the 3411 patients wait-listed for heart transplant (64.0 years [interquartile range, 55.0-70.0 years] vs 60.0 [interquartile range, 54.0-65.0 years]; P < .001), but there was no significant difference in sex (2701 men [79.2%] vs 2648 men [77.6%]; P = .13). After propensity score matching for age, sex, body mass index, renal function, and albumin level, 3411 patients were wait-listed for heart transplant. This included 1607 patients with bridge to transplant LVAD therapy and 1804 patients without LVAD. The strategy of wait-listing for heart transplant was associated with better 5-year survival than LVAD destination therapy (risk ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.38-0.46) after matching and adjusting for key clinical factors. This survival advantage was associated with heart transplant (adjusted risk ratio for time-dependent transplant status, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.24-0.32).

Conclusions and Relevance

The present analysis suggests that heart transplant with or without bridge to transplant LVAD therapy was associated with superior 5-year survival compared with LVAD destination therapy among patients matched on several relevant clinical factors. Continued improvement in LVAD technology, along with prospective comparative research, appears to be needed to amend this strategy.

Randomized Trials in Cardiac Surgery: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Compared with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in medical specialties, RCTs in cardiac surgery face specific issues. Individual and collective equipoise, rapid evolution of the surgical techniques, as well as difficulties in obtaining funding, and limited education in clinical epidemiology in the surgical community are among the most important challenges in the design phase of the trial. Use of complex interventions and learning curve effect, differences in individual operators' expertise, difficulties in blinding, and slow recruitment make the successful completion of cardiac surgery RCTs particularly challenging. In fact, over the course of the last 20 years, the number of cardiac surgery RCTs has declined significantly. In this review, a team of surgeons, trialists, and epidemiologists discusses the most important challenges faced by RCTs in cardiac surgery and provides a list of suggestions for the successful design and completion of cardiac surgery RCTs.

Plasminogenuria is associated with podocyte injury, edema, and kidney dysfunction in incident glomerular disease

Urinary plasminogen/plasmin, or plasmin (ogen) uria, has been demonstrated in proteinuric patients and exposure of cultured podocytes to plasminogen results in injury via oxidative stress pathways. A causative role for plasmin (ogen) as a "second hit" in kidney disease progression has yet to have been demonstrated in vivo. Additionally, association between plasmin (ogen) uria and kidney function in glomerular diseases remains unclear. We performed comparative studies in a puromycin aminonucleoside (PAN) nephropathy rat model treated with amiloride, an inhibitor of plasminogen activation, and measured changes in plasmin (ogen) uria. In a glomerular disease biorepository cohort (n = 128), we measured time-of-biopsy albuminuria, proteinuria, and plasmin (ogen) uria for correlations with kidney outcomes. In cultured human podocytes, plasminogen treatment was associated with decreased focal adhesion marker expression with rescue by amiloride. Increased glomerular plasmin (ogen) was found in PAN rats and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) patients. PAN nephropathy was associated with increases in plasmin (ogen) uria and proteinuria. Amiloride was protective against PAN-induced glomerular injury, reducing CD36 scavenger receptor expression and oxidative stress. In patients, we found associations between plasmin (ogen) uria and edema status as well as eGFR. Our study demonstrates a role for plasmin (ogen)-induced podocyte injury in the PAN nephropathy model, with amiloride having podocyte-protective properties. In one of the largest glomerular disease cohorts to study plasminogen, we validated previous findings while suggesting a potentially novel relationship between plasmin (ogen) uria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Together, these findings suggest a role for plasmin (ogen) in mediating glomerular injury and as a viable targetable biomarker for podocyte-sparing treatments.

Effect of Nurse-Based Management of Hypertension in Rural Western Kenya

Background

Elevated blood pressure is the leading cause of death worldwide; however, treatment and control rates remain very low. An expanding literature supports the strategy of task redistribution of hypertension care to nurses.

Objective

We aimed to evaluate the effect of a nurse-based hypertension management program in Kenya.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective data analysis of patients with hypertension who initiated nurse-based hypertension management care between January 1, 2011, and October 31, 2013. The primary outcome measure was change in systolic blood pressure (SBP) over one year, analyzed using piecewise linear mixed-effect models with a cut point at 3 months. The primary comparison of interest was care provided by nurses versus clinical officers. Secondary outcomes were change in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) over one year, and blood pressure control analyzed using a zero-inflated Poisson model.

Results

The cohort consisted of 1051 adult patients (mean age 61 years; 65% women). SBP decreased significantly from baseline to three months (nurse-managed patients: slope -4.95 mmHg/month; clinical officer-managed patients: slope -5.28), with no significant difference between groups. DBP also significantly decreased from baseline to three months with no difference between provider groups. Retention in care at 12 months was 42%.

Conclusions

Nurse-managed hypertension care can significantly improve blood pressure. However, retention in care remains a challenge. If these results are reproduced in prospective trial settings with improvements in retention in care, this could be an effective strategy for hypertension care worldwide.

Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Randomized Clinical Trials Comparing Percutaneous Interventions With Coronary Bypass Surgery: A Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Mortality is a common outcome in trials comparing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Controversy exists regarding whether all-cause mortality or cardiac mortality is preferred as a study end point, because noncardiac mortality should be unrelated to the treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the difference in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) comparing PCI with CABG for the treatment of patients with coronary artery disease.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (1946 to the present), Embase (1974 to the present), and the Cochrane Library (1992 to the present) databases were searched on November 24, 2019. Reference lists of included articles were also searched, and additional studies were included if appropriate.

STUDY SELECTION

Articles were considered for inclusion if they were in English, were RCTs comparing PCI with drug-eluting or bare-metal stents and CABG for the treatment of coronary artery disease, and reported mortality and/or cause-specific mortality. Trials of PCI involving angioplasty without stenting were excluded. For each included trial, the publication with the longest follow-up duration for each outcome was selected.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

For data extraction, all studies were reviewed by 2 independent investigators, and disagreements were resolved by a third investigator in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guideline. Data were pooled using fixed- and random-effects models.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific (cardiac vs noncardiac) mortality. Subgroup analyses were performed for PCI trials using drug-eluting vs bare-metal stents and for trials involving patients with left main disease.

RESULTS

Twenty-three unique trials were included involving 13 620 unique patients (6829 undergoing PCI and 6791 undergoing CABG; men, 39.9%-99.0% of study populations; mean age range, 60.0-71.0 years). The weighted mean (SD) follow-up was 5.3 (3.6) years. Compared with CABG, PCI was associated with a higher rate of all-cause (incidence rate ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29) and cardiac (incidence rate ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.45) mortality but also noncardiac mortality (incidence rate ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.00-1.41).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Percutaneous coronary intervention was associated with higher all-cause, cardiac, and noncardiac mortality compared with CABG at 5 years. The significantly higher noncardiac mortality associated with PCI suggests that even noncardiac deaths after PCI may be procedure related and supports the use of all-cause mortality as the end point for myocardial revascularization trials.

Retrospective cohort study of clinical characteristics of 2199 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in New York City

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health crisis, with over 33 million cases and 999 000 deaths worldwide. Data are needed regarding the clinical course of hospitalised patients, particularly in the USA. We aimed to compare clinical characteristic of patients with COVID-19 who had in-hospital mortality with those who were discharged alive.

DESIGN

Demographic, clinical and outcomes data for patients admitted to five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 between 27 February and 2 April 2020 were identified through institutional electronic health records. We performed a retrospective comparative analysis of patients who had in-hospital mortality or were discharged alive.

SETTING

All patients were admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System, a large quaternary care urban hospital system.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants over the age of 18 years were included.

PRIMARY OUTCOMES

We investigated in-hospital mortality during the study period.

RESULTS

A total of 2199 patients with COVID-19 were hospitalised during the study period. As of 2 April, 1121 (51%) patients remained hospitalised, and 1078 (49%) completed their hospital course. Of the latter, the overall mortality was 29%, and 36% required intensive care. The median age was 65 years overall and 75 years in those who died. Pre-existing conditions were present in 65% of those who died and 46% of those discharged. In those who died, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 11.7%, D-dimer was 2.4 μg/mL, C reactive protein was 162 mg/L and procalcitonin was 0.44 ng/mL. In those discharged, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 16.6%, D-dimer was 0.93 μg/mL, C reactive protein was 79 mg/L and procalcitonin was 0.09 ng/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

In our cohort of hospitalised patients, requirement of intensive care and mortality were high. Patients who died typically had more pre-existing conditions and greater perturbations in inflammatory markers as compared with those who were discharged.

Machine Learning to Predict Mortality and Critical Events in a Cohort of Patients With COVID-19 in New York City: Model Development and Validation

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.

METHODS

We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.

RESULTS

Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.

Sex-Based Differences in Outcomes After Mitral Valve Surgery for Severe Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation: From the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated sex-based differences in outcomes after mitral valve (MV) surgery for severe ischemic mitral regurgitation (SIMR).

BACKGROUND

Whether differences in outcomes exist between men and women after surgery for SIMR remains unknown.

METHODS

Patients enrolled in a randomized trial comparing MV replacement versus MV repair for SIMR were included and followed for 2 years. Endpoints for this analysis included all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (defined as the composite of death, stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, worsening New York Heart Association functional class or MV re-operation), quality of life (QOL), functional status, and percentage of change in left ventricular end-systolic volume index (LVESVI) from baseline through 2 years.

RESULTS

Of 251 patients enrolled in the trial, 96 (38.2%) were women. Compared with men, women had smaller LV volumes and effective regurgitant orifice areas (EROA) but greater EROA/left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic volume ratios. At 2 years, women had higher rates of all-cause mortality (27.1% vs. 17.4%, respectively; adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR]: 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 3.26; p = 0.03) and of MACCE (49.0% vs. 38.1%, respectively; adjHR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.37; p = 0.02). Women also reported worse QOL and functional status at 2 years. There were no significant differences in the percentage of change over 2 years in LVESVI between women and men (adjβ: -10.4; 95% CI: -23.4 to 2.6; p = 0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

Women with SIMR displayed different echocardiographic features and experienced higher mortality and worse QOL after MV surgery than men. There were no significant differences in the degree of reverse LV remodeling between sexes. (Comparing the Effectiveness of Repairing Versus Replacing the Heart's Mitral Valve in People With Severe Chronic Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation [Severe Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation]; NCT00807040).

Anticoagulation, Bleeding, Mortality, and Pathology in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19

Background

Thromboembolic disease is common in coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). There is limited evidence on the association of in-hospital anticoagulation (AC) with outcomes and postmortem findings.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to examine association of AC with in-hospital outcomes and describe thromboembolic findings on autopsies.

Methods

This retrospective analysis examined the association of AC with mortality, intubation, and major bleeding. Subanalyses were also conducted on the association of therapeutic versus prophylactic AC initiated ≤48 h from admission. Thromboembolic disease was contextualized by premortem AC among consecutive autopsies.

Results

Among 4,389 patients, median age was 65 years with 44% women. Compared with no AC (n = 1,530; 34.9%), therapeutic AC (n = 900; 20.5%) and prophylactic AC (n = 1,959; 44.6%) were associated with lower in-hospital mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.45 to 0.62 and aHR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.57, respectively), and intubation (aHR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.94 and aHR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.89, respectively). When initiated ≤48 h from admission, there was no statistically significant difference between therapeutic (n = 766) versus prophylactic AC (n = 1,860) (aHR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.73 to 1.02; p = 0.08). Overall, 89 patients (2%) had major bleeding adjudicated by clinician review, with 27 of 900 (3.0%) on therapeutic, 33 of 1,959 (1.7%) on prophylactic, and 29 of 1,530 (1.9%) on no AC. Of 26 autopsies, 11 (42%) had thromboembolic disease not clinically suspected and 3 of 11 (27%) were on therapeutic AC.

Conclusions

AC was associated with lower mortality and intubation among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Compared with prophylactic AC, therapeutic AC was associated with lower mortality, although not statistically significant. Autopsies revealed frequent thromboembolic disease. These data may inform trials to determine optimal AC regimens.

Prevalence and Impact of Myocardial Injury in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 Infection

BACKGROUND

The degree of myocardial injury, as reflected by troponin elevation, and associated outcomes among U.S. hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to describe the degree of myocardial injury and associated outcomes in a large hospitalized cohort with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19.

METHODS

Patients with COVID-19 admitted to 1 of 5 Mount Sinai Health System hospitals in New York City between February 27, 2020, and April 12, 2020, with troponin-I (normal value <0.03 ng/ml) measured within 24 h of admission were included (n = 2,736). Demographics, medical histories, admission laboratory results, and outcomes were captured from the hospitals' electronic health records.

RESULTS

The median age was 66.4 years, with 59.6% men. Cardiovascular disease (CVD), including coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure, was more prevalent in patients with higher troponin concentrations, as were hypertension and diabetes. A total of 506 (18.5%) patients died during hospitalization. In all, 985 (36%) patients had elevated troponin concentrations. After adjusting for disease severity and relevant clinical factors, even small amounts of myocardial injury (e.g., troponin I >0.03 to 0.09 ng/ml; n = 455; 16.6%) were significantly associated with death (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.37 to 2.24; p < 0.001) while greater amounts (e.g., troponin I >0.09 ng/dl; n = 530; 19.4%) were significantly associated with higher risk (adjusted HR: 3.03; 95% CI: 2.42 to 3.80; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Myocardial injury is prevalent among patients hospitalized with COVID-19; however, troponin concentrations were generally present at low levels. Patients with CVD are more likely to have myocardial injury than patients without CVD. Troponin elevation among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 is associated with higher risk of mortality.

Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses in Cardiac Surgery: Rules of the Road - Part 1

The number of cardiac surgical meta-analyses and systematic reviews published in the last decades has constantly increased, paralleling the exponential growth observed in virtually all other medical fields. Meta-analyses are open to methodological flaws, however, if best practices are not strictly followed. Assessment of the appropriateness of the research question is a crucial first step. Once a protocol has been developed, this should be registered before the work is initiated. The cornerstone of any systematic review or meta-analysis is a rigorous, comprehensive, and most of all reproducible, search that follows a prespecified and clear strategy. Eligibility criteria must be discussed and agreed upon in advance to guide final study selection, which ultimately lays the foundation for subsequent data extraction. In case of missing or partially reported data, the authors of the original papers should be contacted. Adherence to rigorous methodological rules at each of these stages will warrant availability of good quality data for formal statistical analyses. The aim of the first part of this expert review is to discuss the limits and pitfalls of the meta-analytic approach and provide guidance on how to perform trial-level meta-analyses, with particular reference to the identification of an appropriate research question, the definition and registration of the protocol, the search strategy, the study selection, and the data abstraction.

Cost-effectiveness of coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair versus coronary artery bypass grafting alone for moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation

OBJECTIVE

The Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network reported that left ventricular reverse remodeling at 2 years did not differ between patients with moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation randomized to coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair (n = 150) or coronary artery bypass grafting alone (n = 151). To address health resource use implications, we compared costs and quality-adjusted survival.

METHODS

We used individual patient data from the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network trial on survival, hospitalizations, quality of life, and US hospitalization costs to estimate cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years. A microsimulation model was developed to extrapolate to 10 years. Bootstrap and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to address uncertainty.

RESULTS

In-hospital costs were $59,745 for coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair versus $51,326 for coronary artery bypass grafting alone (difference $8419; 95% uncertainty interval, 2259-18,757). Two-year costs were $81,263 versus $67,341 (difference 13,922 [2370 to 28,888]), and quality-adjusted life years were 1.35 versus 1.30 (difference 0.05; -0.04 to 0.14), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $308,343/quality-adjusted life year for coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair. At 10 years, its costs remained higher ($107,733 vs $88,583, difference 19,150 [-3866 to 56,826]) and quality-adjusted life years showed no difference (-0.92 to 0.87), with 5.08 versus 5.08. The likelihood that coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair would be considered cost-effective at 10 years based on a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100K/quality-adjusted life year did not exceed 37%. Only when this procedure reduces the death rate by a relative 5% will the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio fall below $100K/quality-adjusted life year.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of mitral valve repair to coronary artery bypass grafting for patients with moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation is unlikely to be cost-effective. Only if late mortality benefits can be demonstrated will it meet commonly used cost-effectiveness criteria.