Case study of semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes: An application of the Causal Roadmap to a hybrid design for augmenting an RCT control arm with real-world data

Introduction

Increasing interest in real-world evidence has fueled the development of study designs incorporating real-world data (RWD). Using the Causal Roadmap, we specify three designs to evaluate the difference in risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) with oral semaglutide versus standard-of-care: (1) the actual sequence of non-inferiority and superiority randomized controlled trials (RCTs), (2) a single RCT, and (3) a hybrid randomized-external data study.

Methods

The hybrid design considers integration of the PIONEER 6 RCT with RWD controls using the experiment-selector cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimator. We evaluate 95% confidence interval coverage, power, and average patient time during which participants would be precluded from receiving a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP1-RA) for each design using simulations. Finally, we estimate the effect of oral semaglutide on MACE for the hybrid PIONEER 6-RWD analysis.

Results

In simulations, Designs 1 and 2 performed similarly. The tradeoff between decreased coverage and patient time without the possibility of a GLP1-RA for Designs 1 and 3 depended on the simulated bias. In real data analysis using Design 3, external controls were integrated in 84% of cross-validation folds, resulting in an estimated risk difference of -1.53%-points (95% CI -2.75%-points to -0.30%-points).

Conclusions

The Causal Roadmap helps investigators to minimize potential bias in studies using RWD and to quantify tradeoffs between study designs. The simulation results help to interpret the level of evidence provided by the real data analysis in support of the superiority of oral semaglutide versus standard-of-care for cardiovascular risk reduction.

Use of comprehensive recruitment strategies in the glycemia reduction approaches in diabetes: A comparative effectiveness study (GRADE) multi-center clinical trial

BACKGROUND/AIMS

We present and describe recruitment strategies implemented from 2013 to 2017 across 45 clinical sites in the United States, participating in the Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study, an unmasked, randomized controlled trial evaluating four glucose-lowering medications added to metformin in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (duration of diabetes <10 years). We examined the yield of participants recruited through Electronic Health Records systems compared to traditional recruitment methods to leverage access to type 2 diabetes patients in primary care.

METHODS

Site selection criteria included availability of the study population, geographic representation, the ability to recruit and retain a diverse pool of participants including traditionally underrepresented groups, and prior site research experience in diabetes clinical trials. Recruitment initiatives were employed to support and monitor recruitment, such as creation of a Recruitment and Retention Committee, development of criteria for Electronic Health Record systems queries, conduct of remote site visits, development of a public screening website, and other central and local initiatives. Notably, the study supported a dedicated recruitment coordinator at each site to manage local recruitment and facilitate screening of potential participants identified by Electronic Health Record systems.

RESULTS

The study achieved the enrollment goal of 5000 participants, meeting its target with Black/African American (20%), Hispanic/Latino (18%), and age ≧60 years (42%) subgroups but not with women (36%). Recruitment required 1 year more than the 3 years originally planned. Sites included academic hospitals, integrated health systems, and Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. Participants were enrolled through Electronic Health Record queries (68%), physician referral (13%), traditional mail outreach (7%), TV, radio, flyers, and Internet (7%), and other strategies (5%). Early implementation of targeted Electronic Health Record queries yielded a greater number of eligible participants compared to other recruitment methods. Efforts over time increasingly emphasized engagement with primary care networks.

CONCLUSION

Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness successfully recruited a diverse study population with relatively new onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus, relying to a large extent on the use of Electronic Health Record to screen potential participants. A comprehensive approach to recruitment with frequent monitoring was critical to meet the recruitment goal.

Outpatient treatment of COVID-19 and incidence of post-COVID-19 condition over 10 months (COVID-OUT): a multicentre, randomised, quadruple-blind, parallel-group, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Post-COVID-19 condition (also known as long COVID) is an emerging chronic illness potentially affecting millions of people. We aimed to evaluate whether outpatient COVID-19 treatment with metformin, ivermectin, or fluvoxamine soon after SARS-CoV-2 infection could reduce the risk of long COVID.

METHODS

We conducted a decentralised, randomised, quadruple-blind, parallel-group, phase 3 trial (COVID-OUT) at six sites in the USA. We included adults aged 30-85 years with overweight or obesity who had COVID-19 symptoms for fewer than 7 days and a documented SARS-CoV-2 positive PCR or antigen test within 3 days before enrolment. Participants were randomly assigned via 2 × 3 parallel factorial randomisation (1:1:1:1:1:1) to receive metformin plus ivermectin, metformin plus fluvoxamine, metformin plus placebo, ivermectin plus placebo, fluvoxamine plus placebo, or placebo plus placebo. Participants, investigators, care providers, and outcomes assessors were masked to study group assignment. The primary outcome was severe COVID-19 by day 14, and those data have been published previously. Because the trial was delivered remotely nationwide, the a priori primary sample was a modified intention-to-treat sample, meaning that participants who did not receive any dose of study treatment were excluded. Long COVID diagnosis by a medical provider was a prespecified, long-term secondary outcome. This trial is complete and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510194.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 30, 2020, and Jan 28, 2022, 6602 people were assessed for eligibility and 1431 were enrolled and randomly assigned. Of 1323 participants who received a dose of study treatment and were included in the modified intention-to-treat population, 1126 consented for long-term follow-up and completed at least one survey after the assessment for long COVID at day 180 (564 received metformin and 562 received matched placebo; a subset of participants in the metformin vs placebo trial were also randomly assigned to receive ivermectin or fluvoxamine). 1074 (95%) of 1126 participants completed at least 9 months of follow-up. 632 (56·1%) of 1126 participants were female and 494 (43·9%) were male; 44 (7·0%) of 632 women were pregnant. The median age was 45 years (IQR 37-54) and median BMI was 29·8 kg/m2 (IQR 27·0-34·2). Overall, 93 (8·3%) of 1126 participants reported receipt of a long COVID diagnosis by day 300. The cumulative incidence of long COVID by day 300 was 6·3% (95% CI 4·2-8·2) in participants who received metformin and 10·4% (7·8-12·9) in those who received identical metformin placebo (hazard ratio [HR] 0·59, 95% CI 0·39-0·89; p=0·012). The metformin beneficial effect was consistent across prespecified subgroups. When metformin was started within 3 days of symptom onset, the HR was 0·37 (95% CI 0·15-0·95). There was no effect on cumulative incidence of long COVID with ivermectin (HR 0·99, 95% CI 0·59-1·64) or fluvoxamine (1·36, 0·78-2·34) compared with placebo.

INTERPRETATION

Outpatient treatment with metformin reduced long COVID incidence by about 41%, with an absolute reduction of 4·1%, compared with placebo. Metformin has clinical benefits when used as outpatient treatment for COVID-19 and is globally available, low-cost, and safe.

FUNDING

Parsemus Foundation; Rainwater Charitable Foundation; Fast Grants; UnitedHealth Group Foundation; National Institute of Diabetes, Digestive and Kidney Diseases; National Institutes of Health; and National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences.

A causal roadmap for generating high-quality real-world evidence

Increasing emphasis on the use of real-world evidence (RWE) to support clinical policy and regulatory decision-making has led to a proliferation of guidance, advice, and frameworks from regulatory agencies, academia, professional societies, and industry. A broad spectrum of studies use real-world data (RWD) to produce RWE, ranging from randomized trials with outcomes assessed using RWD to fully observational studies. Yet, many proposals for generating RWE lack sufficient detail, and many analyses of RWD suffer from implausible assumptions, other methodological flaws, or inappropriate interpretations. The Causal Roadmap is an explicit, itemized, iterative process that guides investigators to prespecify study design and analysis plans; it addresses a wide range of guidance within a single framework. By supporting the transparent evaluation of causal assumptions and facilitating objective comparisons of design and analysis choices based on prespecified criteria, the Roadmap can help investigators to evaluate the quality of evidence that a given study is likely to produce, specify a study to generate high-quality RWE, and communicate effectively with regulatory agencies and other stakeholders. This paper aims to disseminate and extend the Causal Roadmap framework for use by clinical and translational researchers; three companion papers demonstrate applications of the Causal Roadmap for specific use cases.

Mitochondrial metabolites predict adverse cardiovascular events in individuals with diabetes

Metabolic mechanisms underlying the heterogeneity of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) event (MACE) risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) remain unclear. We hypothesized that circulating metabolites reflecting mitochondrial dysfunction predict incident MACE in T2D. Targeted mass-spectrometry profiling of 60 metabolites was performed on baseline plasma samples from the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS; discovery cohort) and Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL; validation cohort) biomarker substudy cohorts. A principal components analysis metabolite factor comprising medium-chain acylcarnitines (MCACs) was associated with MACE in TECOS and validated in EXSCEL, with higher levels associated with higher MACE risk. Meta-analysis showed that long-chain acylcarnitines (LCACs) and dicarboxylacylcarnitines were also associated with MACE. Metabolites remained associated with MACE in multivariate models and favorably changed with exenatide therapy. A third cohort (Cardiac Catheterization Genetics [CATHGEN]) with T2D was assessed to determine whether these metabolites improved discriminative capability of multivariate models for MACE. Nine metabolites (MCACs and LCACs and 1 dicarboxylacylcarnitine) were associated with time to MACE in the CATHGEN cohort. Addition of these metabolites to clinical models minimally improved the discriminative capability for MACE but did significantly down reclassify risk. Thus, metabolites reporting on dysregulated mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation are present in higher levels in individuals with T2D who experience subsequent MACE. These biomarkers may improve CV risk prediction models, be therapy responsive, and highlight emerging risk mechanisms.

Efficacy and safety of once-daily oral semaglutide 25 mg and 50 mg compared with 14 mg in adults with type 2 diabetes (PIONEER PLUS): a multicentre, randomised, phase 3b trial

BACKGROUND

Once-daily oral semaglutide is an effective type 2 diabetes treatment. We aimed to investigate a new formulation of oral semaglutide at higher investigational doses versus the approved 14 mg dose in adults with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

This global, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, phase 3b trial, carried out at 177 sites in 14 countries, enrolled adults with type 2 diabetes, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) 8·0-10·5% (64-91 mmol/mol), a BMI of 25·0 kg/m2 or greater, receiving stable daily doses of one to three oral glucose-lowering drugs. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1), by means of an interactive web response system, to once-daily oral semaglutide 14 mg, 25 mg, or 50 mg for 68 weeks. Investigators, site personnel, trial participants, and trial sponsor staff were masked to dose assignment throughout the trial. The primary endpoint was change in HbA1c from baseline to week 52, evaluated with a treatment policy estimand in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of trial drug. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04707469, and the European Clinical Trials register, EudraCT 2020-000299-39, and is complete.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 15 and Sept 29, 2021, of 2294 people screened, 1606 (n=936 [58·3%] male; n=670 [41·7%] female; mean [SD] age 58·2 [10·8] years) received oral semaglutide 14 mg (n=536), 25 mg (n=535), or 50 mg (n=535). At baseline, mean (SD) HbA1c was 9·0% (0·8; 74·4 mmol/L [SD 8·3]) and mean bodyweight was 96·4 kg (21·6). Mean changes (SE) in HbA1c at week 52 were -1·5 percentage points (SE 0·05) with oral semaglutide 14 mg, -1·8 percentage points (0·06) with 25 mg (estimated treatment difference [ETD] -0·27, 95% CI -0·42 to -0·12; p=0·0006), and -2·0 percentage points (0·06) with 50 mg (ETD -0·53, -0·68 to -0·38; p<0·0001). Adverse events were reported by 404 (76%) participants in the oral semaglutide 14 mg group, 422 (79%) in the 25 mg group, and 428 (80%) in the 50 mg group. Gastrointestinal disorders, which were mostly mild to moderate, occurred more frequently with oral semaglutide 25 mg and 50 mg than with 14 mg. Ten deaths occurred during the trial; none were judged to be treatment related.

INTERPRETATION

Oral semaglutide 25 mg and 50 mg were superior to 14 mg in reducing HbA1c and bodyweight in adults with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes. No new safety concerns were identified.

FUNDING

Novo Nordisk.

Metformin for Treatment of Acute COVID-19: Systematic Review of Clinical Trial Data Against SARS-CoV-2

BACKGROUND

Observational and preclinical data suggest metformin may prevent severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes.

PURPOSE

We conducted a systematic review of randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials of metformin treatment for COVID-19 to determine whether metformin affects clinical or laboratory outcomes in individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and present a structured summary of preclinical data.

STUDY SELECTION

Two independent reviewers searched PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register, and ClinicalTrials.gov on 1 February 2023 with no date restrictions for trials where investigators randomized adults with COVID-19 to metformin versus control and assessed clinical and/or laboratory outcomes of interest. The Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 tool was used to assess bias.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers extracted data pertaining to prespecified outcomes of each interest from each included trial.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The synthesis plan was developed a priori and was guided by Synthesis Without Meta-analysis (SWiM) guidelines. Summary tables and narrative synthesis were used (PROSPERO, 2022, CRD42022349896). Three randomized trials met inclusion criteria. In two of the trials investigators found that metformin improved clinical outcomes (prevented need for oxygen and prevented need for acute health care use), and in the third trial a larger portion of adults with diabetes were enrolled but results did show a direction of benefit similar to that of the other trials in the per-protocol group. In the largest trial, subjects were enrolled during the delta and omicron waves and vaccinated individuals were included. The certainty of evidence that metformin prevents health care use due to COVID-19 was moderate per Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. Many preclinical studies have shown metformin to be effective against SARS-CoV-2.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations include inclusion of only three trials and heterogeneity between trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Future trials will help define the role of metformin in COVID-19 treatment guidelines.

Metformin reduces SARS-CoV-2 in a Phase 3 Randomized Placebo Controlled Clinical Trial

Current antiviral treatment options for SARS-CoV-2 infections are not available globally, cannot be used with many medications, and are limited to virus-specific targets.1-3 Biophysical modeling of SARS-CoV-2 replication predicted that protein translation is an especially attractive target for antiviral therapy.4 Literature review identified metformin, widely known as a treatment for diabetes, as a potential suppressor of protein translation via targeting of the host mTor pathway.5 In vitro, metformin has antiviral activity against RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2.6,7 In the COVID-OUT phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of outpatient treatment of COVID-19, metformin had a 42% reduction in ER visits/hospitalizations/death through 14 days; a 58% reduction in hospitalizations/death through 28 days, and a 42% reduction in Long COVID through 10 months.8,9 Here we show viral load analysis of specimens collected in the COVID-OUT trial that the mean SARS-CoV-2 viral load was reduced 3.6-fold with metformin relative to placebo (-0.56 log10 copies/mL; 95%CI, -1.05 to -0.06, p=0.027) while there was no virologic effect for ivermectin or fluvoxamine vs placebo. The metformin effect was consistent across subgroups and with emerging data.10,11 Our results demonstrate, consistent with model predictions, that a safe, widely available,12 well-tolerated, and inexpensive oral medication, metformin, can be repurposed to significantly reduce SARS-CoV-2 viral load.

Increased Derived Time in Range Is Associated with Reduced Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events, Severe Hypoglycemia, and Microvascular Events in Type 2 Diabetes: A Post Hoc Analysis of DEVOTE

Time spent in glycemic target range (time in range [TIR]; plasma glucose 70-180 mg/dL [3.9-10.0 mmol/L]) as a surrogate endpoint for long-term diabetes-related outcomes requires validation. This post hoc analysis investigated the association between TIR, derived from 8-point glucose profiles (derived TIR [dTIR]) at 12 months, and time to cardiovascular or severe hypoglycemic episodes in people with type 2 diabetes in the DEVOTE trial. At 12 months, dTIR was significantly negatively associated with time to first major adverse cardiovascular event (P = 0.0087), severe hypoglycemic episode (P < 0.0001), or microvascular event (P = 0.024). A nonsignificant trend was seen toward association between 12-month hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and these outcomes, but this was no longer seen after addition of dTIR to the model. The results support targeting TIR >70% and suggest dTIR could be used in addition to, or in some instances in place of, HbA1c as a clinical biomarker. Trial registration details: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01959529.

A framework for assessing clinical trial site readiness

Clinical trial processes are unnecessarily inefficient and costly, slowing the translation of medical discoveries into treatments for people living with disease. To reduce redundancies and inefficiencies, a group of clinical trial experts developed a framework for clinical trial site readiness based on existing trial site qualifications from sponsors. The site readiness practices are encompassed within six domains: research team, infrastructure, study management, data collection and management, quality oversight, and ethics and safety. Implementation of this framework for clinical trial sites would reduce inefficiencies in trial conduct and help prepare new sites to enter the clinical trials enterprise, with the potential to improve the reach of clinical trials to underserved communities. Moreover, the framework holds benefits for trial sponsors, contract research organizations, trade associations, trial participants, and the public. For novice sites considering future trials, we provide a framework for site preparation and the engagement of stakeholders. For experienced sites, the framework can be used to assess current practices and inform and engage sponsors, staff, and participants. Details in the supplementary materials provide easy access to key regulatory documents and resources. Invited perspective articles provide greater depth from a systems, DEIA (diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility) and decentralized trials perspective.

Study design and baseline profile for adults with type 2 diabetes in the once-weekly subcutaneous SEmaglutide randomized PRAgmatic (SEPRA) trial

INTRODUCTION

Once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 analog, is approved in the USA as an adjunct to diet and exercise for adults with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes (T2D) to improve glycemic control and reduce the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in people with T2D and established cardiovascular disease. The Semaglutide Unabated Sustainability in Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes (SUSTAIN) phase III clinical trial program demonstrated the efficacy and safety of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide; however, determining its effectiveness in a real-world setting could support decision-making by clinicians, payers and policy makers in routine clinical practice.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

SEmaglutide PRAgmatic (SEPRA) is an ongoing open-label, randomized, pragmatic clinical trial designed to compare the effects of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide versus standard of care in US health-insured adults with T2D and physician-determined inadequate glycemic control. The primary end point is the proportion of participants achieving glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) <7.0% at year 1; other key outcomes include glycemic control, weight loss, healthcare utilization, and patient-reported outcomes. Individual-level data will be collected from routine clinical practice and health insurance claims. The last patient last visit is expected by June 2023.

RESULTS

Between July 2018 and March 2021, 1278 participants were enrolled from 138 study sites across the USA. At baseline, 54% were male with mean±SD age 57.4±11.1 years and body mass index 35.7±8.0 kg/m2. Mean diabetes duration was 7.4±6.0 years and mean HbA1c was 8.5±1.6%. At baseline, concomitant antidiabetes medications included metformin, sulfonylureas, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors, and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors. The majority of participants had hypertension and dyslipidemia. The trial design was self-assessed using the PRagmatic Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summary-2 tool by the study steering group and was scored 4-5 in all domains suggesting a highly pragmatic study.

CONCLUSIONS

SEPRA, a highly pragmatic ongoing study, will provide data on the effects of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide in a real-world setting when used during routine management of T2D.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03596450.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Effects of oral semaglutide on cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and/or chronic kidney disease: SOUL, a randomized trial, design and baseline characteristics

AIM

To describe the design of Semaglutide cardiOvascular oUtcomes triaL (SOUL) and baseline clinical data of its participants. In SOUL, the effects of oral semaglutide, the first oral glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, on the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in individuals with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD) and/or chronic kidney disease (CKD) will be assessed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

SOUL is a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled CV outcomes trial comparing oral semaglutide (14 mg once daily) with placebo, both in addition to standard of care, in individuals aged ≥50 years with type 2 diabetes with evidence of ASCVD (coronary artery disease [CAD], cerebrovascular disease, symptomatic peripheral arterial disease [PAD]) and/or CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73 m² ).

PRIMARY OUTCOME

time from randomization to first occurrence of a major adverse CV event (MACE; composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke). This event-driven trial will continue until 1225 first adjudication-confirmed MACEs have occurred. Enrollment has been completed.

RESULTS

Overall, 9650 participants were enrolled between 17 June 2019 and 24 March 2021 (male 71.1%, White 68.9%, mean age 66.1 years, diabetes duration 15.4 years, body mass index 31.1 kg/m² , glycated haemoglobin 63.5 mmol/mol [8.0%]). The most frequently used antihyperglycaemic medications at baseline were metformin (75.7%), insulin and insulin analogues (50.5%), sulphonylureas (29.1%), sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (26.7%) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (23.0%). At randomization, 70.7% of participants had CAD, 42.3% CKD, 21.1% cerebrovascular disease and 15.7% symptomatic PAD (categories not mutually exclusive). Prevalent heart failure was reported in 23.0% of participants.

CONCLUSIONS

SOUL will provide evidence regarding the CV effects of oral semaglutide in individuals with type 2 diabetes and established ASCVD and/or CKD. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Are fewer cases of diabetes mellitus diagnosed in the months after SARS-CoV-2 infection? A population-level view in the EHR-based RECOVER program

Long-term sequelae of severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection may include increased incidence of diabetes. Here we describe the temporal relationship between new type 2 diabetes and SARS-CoV-2 infection in a nationwide database. We found that while the proportion of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes increased during the acute period of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the mean proportion of new diabetes cases in the 6 months post-infection was about 83% lower than the 6 months preinfection. These results underscore the need for further investigation to understand the timing of new diabetes after COVID-19, etiology, screening, and treatment strategies.

Impact of Expanding Access to Continuous Glucose Monitoring Systems Among Insulin Users with Type 1 or Type 2 Diabetes

Background: Despite increased use of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, studies to quantify patterns of CGM use are limited. In December 2018, a policy change by a commercial insurer expanded coverage of CGM through the pharmacy benefit, creating an opportunity to evaluate the impact of this change on CGM utilization. Research Design and Methods: Pharmacy and medical claims from 2016 to 2020 were used to estimate the prevalence of CGM use among insulin users with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) before and after the policy change. Change in CGM use was assessed using an interrupted time series design. Results: At the beginning of the study period, 18.8% of T1DM patients and 1.2% of T2DM patients used CGM. Use rose to 30.5% and 6.6% in the quarter before the policy change. The policy resulted in an immediate 9.5% (P < 0.0001) and 2.8% (P < 0.0001) change in use and increased the rate of quarterly change by 0.5% (P = 0.002) and 0.8% (P < 0.0001). At the end of the study period, 58.2% and 14.9% of T1DM and T2DM patients used CGM. Conclusion: CGM use significantly increased after addition to the pharmacy benefit. Rate of change in CGM use was lower in T1DM compared to the T2DM population, but overall use remained higher among patients with T1DM. Increased CGM use in the population studied aligns with those whose clinical guidelines suggest would most likely benefit. Additional work is needed to evaluate the impact of this benefit change on health care spending and outcomes.

A method for comparing multiple imputation techniques: A case study on the U.S. national COVID cohort collaborative

Healthcare datasets obtained from Electronic Health Records have proven to be extremely useful for assessing associations between patients' predictors and outcomes of interest. However, these datasets often suffer from missing values in a high proportion of cases, whose removal may introduce severe bias. Several multiple imputation algorithms have been proposed to attempt to recover the missing information under an assumed missingness mechanism. Each algorithm presents strengths and weaknesses, and there is currently no consensus on which multiple imputation algorithm works best in a given scenario. Furthermore, the selection of each algorithm's parameters and data-related modeling choices are also both crucial and challenging. In this paper we propose a novel framework to numerically evaluate strategies for handling missing data in the context of statistical analysis, with a particular focus on multiple imputation techniques. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach on a large cohort of type-2 diabetes patients provided by the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Enclave, where we explored the influence of various patient characteristics on outcomes related to COVID-19. Our analysis included classic multiple imputation techniques as well as simple complete-case Inverse Probability Weighted models. Extensive experiments show that our approach can effectively highlight the most promising and performant missing-data handling strategy for our case study. Moreover, our methodology allowed a better understanding of the behavior of the different models and of how it changed as we modified their parameters. Our method is general and can be applied to different research fields and on datasets containing heterogeneous types.

Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccination and Booster on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Symptom Severity Over Time in the COVID-OUT Trial

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination has decreasing protection from acquiring any infection with emergence of new variants; however, vaccination continues to protect against progression to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The impact of vaccination status on symptoms over time is less clear.

METHODS

Within a randomized trial on early outpatient COVID-19 therapy testing metformin, ivermectin, and/or fluvoxamine, participants recorded symptoms daily for 14 days. Participants were given a paper symptom diary allowing them to circle the severity of 14 symptoms as none (0), mild (1), moderate (2), or severe (3). This is a secondary analysis of clinical trial data on symptom severity over time using generalized estimating equations comparing those unvaccinated, SARS-CoV-2 vaccinated with primary vaccine series only, or vaccine-boosted.

RESULTS

The parent clinical trial prospectively enrolled 1323 participants, of whom 1062 (80%) prospectively recorded some daily symptom data. Of these, 480 (45%) were unvaccinated, 530 (50%) were vaccinated with primary series only, and 52 (5%) vaccine-boosted. Overall symptom severity was least for the vaccine-boosted group and most severe for unvaccinated at baseline and over the 14 days (P < .001). Individual symptoms were least severe in the vaccine-boosted group including cough, chills, fever, nausea, fatigue, myalgia, headache, and diarrhea, as well as smell and taste abnormalities. Results were consistent over Delta and Omicron variant time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-boosted participants had the least severe symptoms during COVID-19, which abated the quickest over time. Clinical Trial Registration. NCT04510194.

Enrollment of underrepresented racial and ethnic groups in the Rare and Atypical Diabetes Network (RADIANT)

Introduction

Diabetes mellitus in underrepresented racial and ethnic groups (URG) is rapidly increasing in incidence and has worse outcomes than diabetes in non-Hispanic White individuals. Rare and Atypical Diabetes Network (RADIANT) established recruitment targets based on the racial and ethnic distribution of the USA to enroll a diverse study population. We examined participation of URG across RADIANT study stages and described strategies to enhance recruitment and retention of URG.

Materials and Methods

RADIANT is a multicenter NIH-funded study of people with uncharacterized forms of atypical diabetes. RADIANT participants consent online and progress through three sequential study stages, as eligible.

Results

We enrolled 601 participants with mean age 44 ± 16.8 years, 64.4% female. At Stage 1, 80.6% were White, 7.2% African American (AA), 12.2% other/more than one race, and 8.4% Hispanic. Enrollment of URG was significantly below preset targets across most stages. Referral sources differed by race (p < 0.001) but not ethnicity (p = 0.15). Most AA participants were referred by RADIANT investigators (58.5% vs. 24.5% in Whites), whereas flyers, news, social media, and family or friends were more frequent referral sources for White individuals (26.4% vs. 12.2% in AA). Ongoing initiatives to increase enrollment of URG in RADIANT include engaging with clinics/hospitals serving URG, screening electronic medical records, and providing culturally competent study coordination and targeted advertisement.

Conclusions

There is low participation of URG in RADIANT, potentially limiting the generalizability of its discoveries. Investigations into barriers and facilitators for recruitment and retention of URG in RADIANT, with implications for other studies, are ongoing.

Medically tailored meals for food insecurity and type 2 diabetes: Protocol for the Food as Medicine for Diabetes (FAME-D) trial

BACKGROUND

Food insecurity is associated with worse glycemic management for individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but whether medically tailored meals (MTM), a food insecurity intervention, can improve glycemic management is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the protocol for a trial assessing whether an MTM plus lifestyle intervention improves hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and participant-reported outcomes, relative to a food subsidy (money that can be spent on foods participants choose), for adults with both T2DM and food insecurity.

METHODS

The Food as Medicine for Diabetes (FAME-D) randomized clinical trial (goal n = 200) is a pragmatic trial with an active comparator. Participants, who will have T2DM and report food insecurity, will be randomly assigned to a 6-month MTM plus telephone-delivered lifestyle change intervention, or a 6-month food subsidy ($40/month). The primary outcome is HbA1c at 6 months. Secondary outcomes include HbA1c at 12 months to assess whether the intervention effect (if any) is sustained, along with weight, food insecurity, diabetes distress, and health-related quality of life. Qualitative analyses of semi-structured interviews will help understand why, how, and under what circumstances the intervention achieved its observed results.

CONCLUSION

Results from FAME-D will help inform clinical management of food insecurity when it co-occurs with T2DM. Further, results may be useful as healthcare payors are considering coverage for MTM interventions.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov: NCT04828785.

Outpatient treatment of Covid-19 with metformin, ivermectin, and fluvoxamine and the development of Long Covid over 10-month follow-up

Background

Long Covid is an emerging chronic illness potentially affecting millions, sometimes preventing the ability to work or participate in normal daily activities. COVID-OUT was an investigator-initiated, multi-site, phase 3, randomized, quadruple-blinded placebo-controlled clinical trial (NCT04510194). The design simultaneously assessed three oral medications (metformin, ivermectin, fluvoxamine) using two by three parallel treatment factorial assignment to efficiently share placebo controls and assessed Long Covid outcomes for 10 months to understand whether early outpatient treatment of SARS-CoV-2 with metformin, ivermectin, or fluvoxamine prevents Long Covid.

Methods

This was a decentralized, remotely delivered trial in the US of 1,125 adults age 30 to 85 with overweight or obesity, fewer than 7 days of symptoms, and enrolled within three days of a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Immediate release metformin titrated over 6 days to 1,500mg per day 14 days total; ivermectin 430mcg/kg/day for 3 days; fluvoxamine, 50mg on day one then 50mg twice daily through 14 days. Medical-provider diagnosis of Long Covid, reported by participant by day 300 after randomization was a pre-specified secondary outcome; the primary outcome of the trial was severe Covid by day 14.

Result

The median age was 45 years (IQR 37 to 54), 56% female of whom 7% were pregnant. Two percent identified as Native American; 3.7% as Asian; 7.4% as Black/African American; 82.8% as white; and 12.7% as Hispanic/Latino. The median BMI was 29.8 kg/m2 (IQR 27 to 34); 51% had a BMI >30kg/m2. Overall, 8.4% reported having received a diagnosis of Long Covid from a medical provider: 6.3% in the metformin group and 10.6% in the metformin control; 8.0% in the ivermectin group and 8.1% in the ivermectin control; and 10.1% in the fluvoxamine group and 7.5% in the fluvoxamine control. The Hazard Ratio (HR) for Long Covid in the metformin group versus control was 0.58 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.88); 0.99 (95% CI 0.592 to 1.643) in the ivermectin group; and 1.36 in the fluvoxamine group (95% CI 0.785 to 2.385).

Conclusions

There was a 42% relative decrease in the incidence of Long Covid in the metformin group compared to its blinded control in a secondary outcome of this randomized phase 3 trial.