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Vos T, Allen C, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown A, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Dilegge T, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming T, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kawashima T, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Marczak L, Mensah GA, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Olsen H, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, Wagner JA, Wang H, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Afanvi KA, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Ajala ON, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brown J, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damtew SA, Dandona R, Daoud F, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endres M, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Estep K, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Fox J, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Grainger R, Greaves F, Guillemin F, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Huang H, Huang JJ, Huynh C, Iannarone M, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim P, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Larsson A, Lavados PM, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo WD, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Mackay MT, Magdy M, Razek AE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Massano J, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Mooney MD, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nunes BP, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, de Azeredo Passos VM, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pond CD, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rao P, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Blancas MJR, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, Sharma U, Shen J, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Sivonda A, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Sligar A, Sliwa K, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Steinke S, Stovner L, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Woodbrook R, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1545-1602. [PMID: 27733282 PMCID: PMC5055577 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31678-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4522] [Impact Index Per Article: 565.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. FINDINGS We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4-19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30-2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35-2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. INTERPRETATION Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Wolock TM, Carter A, Nguyen G, Kyu HH, Gakidou E, Hay SI, Mills EJ, Trickey A, Msemburi W, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Fraser MS, Sligar A, Salomon J, Larson HJ, Friedman J, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbas KM, Razek MMAE, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adelekan AL, Adofo K, Adou AK, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SFS, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Mohammad R, Al-Raddadi S, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Atkins LS, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Bacha U, Badawi A, Barac A, Bärnighausen T, Basu A, Bayou TA, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhatia E, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Birlik SM, Bisanzio D, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brown A, Burch M, Butt ZA, Campuzano JC, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chavan L, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cooper C, Dahiru T, Damtew SA, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, de Jager P, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Doshi PP, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Elshrek YM, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Faghmous IDA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Fullman N, Fürst T, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething PW, Ghiwot TT, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Glaser E, Goenka S, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes MDC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Haagsma J, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Harun KM, Havmoeller R, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Iyer VJ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karletsos D, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil I, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kinfu Y, Kivipelto M, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Lal DK, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Lim SS, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Razek HMAE, Mahdavi M, Mahesh PA, Majdan M, Majeed A, Makhlouf C, Malekzadeh R, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Mayosi BM, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Miller TR, Mikesell J, Mirarefin M, Mohammad KA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murimira B, Murthy GVS, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nawaz H, Nejjari C, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Ojelabi FA, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ota E, Park HY, Park JH, Patil ST, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pearson K, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Plass D, Polinder S, Pourmalek F, Prokop DM, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rana SM, Rao PV, Remuzzi G, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roy A, Ruhago GM, Saeedi MY, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Sawhney M, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soti DO, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Talongwa RT, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Tedla BA, Tekle T, Shifa GT, Temesgen AM, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thapa K, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimparis N, Tura AK, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, Venketasubramanian N, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wang L, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zhang H, Zhao Y, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Zuhlke LJ, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3:e361-e387. [PMID: 27470028 PMCID: PMC5056319 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(16)30087-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 405] [Impact Index Per Article: 50.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2016] [Revised: 06/09/2016] [Accepted: 06/17/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.
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Forouzanfar MH, Alexander L, Anderson HR, Bachman VF, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Burnett R, Casey D, Coates MM, Cohen A, Delwiche K, Estep K, Frostad JJ, Astha KC, Kyu HH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Ng M, Slepak EL, Thomas BA, Wagner J, Aasvang GM, Abbafati C, Abbasoglu Ozgoren A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham B, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburto TC, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Adofo K, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Al Khabouri MJ, Al Lami FH, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Ali MK, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen PJ, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Ameli O, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Argeseanu Cunningham S, Arnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Atkinson C, Avila MA, Awuah B, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Bakfalouni T, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Balu RK, Banerjee A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, Basto-Abreu AC, Basu A, Basu S, Basulaiman MO, Batis Ruvalcaba C, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Benzian H, Bernabé E, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bin Abdulhak AA, Blore JD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Bora Başara B, Borges G, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RR, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJ, Brenner H, Briggs ADM, Broday DM, Brooks PM, Bruce NG, Brugha TS, Brunekreef B, Buchbinder R, Bui LN, Bukhman G, Bulloch AG, Burch M, Burney PGJ, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Cantoral AJ, Caravanos J, Cárdenas R, Cardis E, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Çavlin A, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chen W, Chen Z, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christophi CA, Chuang TW, Chugh SS, Cirillo M, Claßen TKD, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Contreras AG, Cooper C, Cooperrider K, Cooper LT, Coresh J, Courville KJ, Criqui MH, Cuevas-Nasu L, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Davis A, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, de Castro EF, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De Leo D, de Lima G, Degenhardt L, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, deVeber GA, Devries KM, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Durrani AM, Ebel BE, Ellenbogen RG, Elshrek YM, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Fay DFJ, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Ferrari AJ, Ferri CP, Flaxman AD, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Paleo UF, Franklin RC, Gabbe B, Gaffikin L, Gakidou E, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Gansevoort RT, García-Guerra FA, Gasana E, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething P, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goginashvili K, Gomez Dantes H, Gona P, Gonzalez de Cosio T, González-Castell D, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Guerrant RL, Gugnani HC, Guillemin F, Gunnell D, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Hagstromer M, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haregu TN, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez L, Heuton KR, Heydarpour P, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Hu H, Huang C, Huang JJ, Hubbell BJ, Huiart L, Husseini A, Iannarone ML, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Ikeda N, Innos K, Inoue M, Islami F, Ismayilova S, Jacobsen KH, Jansen HA, Jarvis DL, Jassal SK, Jauregui A, Jayaraman S, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang F, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Kany Roseline SS, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Karthikeyan G, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalifa SEAH, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khonelidze I, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kim Y, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kissela BM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kose MR, Kosen S, Kraemer A, Kravchenko M, Krishnaswami S, Kromhout H, Ku T, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lai T, Lakshmana Balaji A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AE, Leasher JL, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, London SJ, Lopez N, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma J, Ma S, Machado VMP, MacIntyre MF, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdi AA, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marape M, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Margono C, Marks GB, Martin RV, Marzan MB, Mashal MT, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, McKay AC, McKee M, McLain A, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Misganaw A, Mishra S, Mohamed Ibrahim N, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GL, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Moore AR, Morawska L, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Mullany EC, Murthy KS, Naghavi M, Nahas Z, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KMV, Nash D, Neal B, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ngalesoni FN, Ngirabega JDD, Nguyen G, Nguyen NT, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nisar MI, Nogueira JR, Nolla JM, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olusanya BO, Omer SB, Opio JN, Orozco R, Pagcatipunan RS, Pain AW, Pandian JD, Panelo CIA, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Paternina Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pedraza LS, Pedroza A, Pejin Stokic L, Pekericli A, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Perry SAL, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phua HP, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polanczyk GV, Polinder S, Pond CD, Pope CA, Pope D, Popova S, Pourmalek F, Powles J, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Qato DM, Quezada AD, Quistberg DAA, Racapé L, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Rao M, Razavi H, Reddy KS, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Remuzzi G, Ribeiro AL, Riccio PM, Richardson L, Riederer A, Robinson M, Roca A, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Romieu I, Ronfani L, Room R, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Rushton L, Sabin N, Sacco RL, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Sahraian MA, Salomon JA, Salvo D, Sampson UK, Sanabria JR, Sanchez LM, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sanchez-Riera L, Sandar L, Santos IS, Sapkota A, Satpathy M, Saunders JE, Sawhney M, Saylan MI, Scarborough P, Schmidt JC, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shahraz S, Levy TS, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soljak M, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stapelberg NJC, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stephens N, Stöckl H, Straif K, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Te Ao BJ, Teixeira CM, Téllez Rojo MM, Terkawi AS, Texcalac-Sangrador JL, Thackway SV, Thomson B, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobollik M, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trasande L, Trillini M, Trujillo U, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Uzun SB, van de Vijver S, Van Dingenen R, van Gool CH, van Os J, Varakin YY, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Vavilala MS, Veerman LJ, Velasquez-Melendez G, Venketasubramanian N, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wallin MT, Wan X, Wang H, Wang J, Wang L, Wang W, Wang Y, Warouw TS, Watts CH, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wessells KR, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Williams TN, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Wright JL, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yan LL, Yang G, Yano Y, Ye P, Yenesew M, Yentür GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Younoussi Z, Yu C, Zaki ME, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zhu S, Zou X, Zunt JR, Lopez AD, Vos T, Murray CJ. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2015; 386:2287-323. [PMID: 26364544 PMCID: PMC4685753 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)00128-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1730] [Impact Index Per Article: 192.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. METHODS Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. FINDINGS All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. INTERPRETATION Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Murray CJL, Barber RM, Foreman KJ, Abbasoglu Ozgoren A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abraham JP, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Alam SS, Alasfoor D, Albittar MI, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almazroa MA, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Anderson HR, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arnlöv J, Arsic Arsenijevic VS, Artaman A, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atkins LS, Avila MA, Awuah B, Bachman VF, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barker-Collo SL, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Basulaiman MO, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bekele T, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Bernabé E, Bertozzi-Villa A, Beyene TJ, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Blyth FM, Bohensky MA, Bolliger IW, Bora Başara B, Bornstein NM, Bose D, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Boyers LN, Brainin M, Brayne CE, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briggs AD, Brooks PM, Brown JC, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Budke CM, Bulchis A, Bulloch AG, Campos-Nonato IR, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Çavlin A, Chadha VK, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chen W, Chiang PP, Chimed-Ochir O, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christophi CA, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coffeng LE, Coggeshall MS, Colistro V, Colquhoun SM, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Coppola LM, Cortinovis M, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dansereau E, Dargan PI, Davey G, Davis A, Davitoiu DV, Dayama A, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Dessalegn M, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Duber HC, Ebel BE, Edmond KM, Elshrek YM, Endres M, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Fay DF, Feigin VL, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Forouzanfar MH, Fowkes FGR, Paleo UF, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Gaffikin L, Gankpé FG, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething P, Gibney KB, Giroud M, Giussani G, Gomez Dantes H, Gona P, González-Medina D, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma J, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamavid H, Hammami M, Hancock J, Hankey GJ, Hansen GM, Hao Y, Harb HL, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heuton KR, Heydarpour P, Higashi H, Hijar M, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Hosgood HD, Hossain M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang C, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Huynh C, Iannarone ML, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jarvis DL, Jassal SK, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karthikeyan G, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalifa SEA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim S, Kim Y, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Krishnaswami S, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni C, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kyu HH, Lai T, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levitz CE, Li B, Li Y, Li Y, Lim SS, Lind M, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lofgren KT, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lortet-Tieulent J, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macintyre MF, Mackay MT, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Margono C, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Mashal MT, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, Mazorodze TT, Mcgill NW, Mcgrath JJ, Mckee M, Mclain A, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen W, Melaku YA, Meltzer M, Memish ZA, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohamed Ibrahim N, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Montine TJ, Mooney MD, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moran AE, Mori R, Moschandreas J, Moturi WN, Moyer ML, Mozaffarian D, Msemburi WT, Mueller UO, Mukaigawara M, Mullany EC, Murdoch ME, Murray J, Murthy KS, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nand D, Nangia V, Narayan KMV, Nejjari C, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen G, Nisar MI, Nolte S, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Ohno SL, Olusanya BO, Opio JN, Ortblad K, Ortiz A, Pain AW, Pandian JD, Panelo CIA, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pavlin BI, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Phillips BK, Phillips DE, Piel FB, Plass D, Poenaru D, Polinder S, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Pullan RL, Qato DM, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahman SU, Raju M, Rana SM, Razavi H, Reddy KS, Refaat A, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Richardson L, Richardus JH, Roberts DA, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rothstein DH, Rowley JT, Roy N, Ruhago GM, Saeedi MY, Saha S, Sahraian MA, Sampson UKA, Sanabria JR, Sandar L, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Scarborough P, Schneider IJ, Schöttker B, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serina PT, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shamah Levy T, Shangguan S, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh L, Skirbekk V, Slepak EL, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Stevens A, Stewart A, Stovner LJ, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tanner M, Tavakkoli M, Taylor HR, Te Ao BJ, Tediosi F, Temesgen AM, Templin T, Ten Have M, Tenkorang EY, Terkawi AS, Thomson B, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tonelli M, Topouzis F, Toyoshima H, Traebert J, Tran BX, Trillini M, Truelsen T, Tsilimbaris M, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uzun SB, Van Brakel WH, Van De Vijver S, van Gool CH, Van Os J, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wagner J, Waller SG, Wan X, Wang H, Wang J, Wang L, Warouw TS, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wenzhi W, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Williams TN, Wolfe CD, Wolock TM, Woolf AD, Wulf S, Wurtz B, Xu G, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki ME, Zhao Y, Zheng Y, Zonies D, Zou X, Salomon JA, Lopez AD, Vos T. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition. Lancet 2015; 386:2145-91. [PMID: 26321261 PMCID: PMC4673910 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)61340-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1298] [Impact Index Per Article: 144.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. METHODS We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. FINDINGS Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. INTERPRETATION Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Berber B, Sanabria JR, Braun K, Yao M, Ellis RJ, Kunos CA, Sohn J, Machtay M, Teh BS, Huang Z, Mayr NA, Lo SS. Emerging role of stereotactic body radiotherapy in the treatment of pancreatic cancer. Expert Rev Anticancer Ther 2013; 13:481-7. [PMID: 23560842 DOI: 10.1586/era.13.19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
The management of pancreatic cancer continues to be challenging. Despite surgical, genetic and molecular advances, its overall prognosis remains poor. Surgical resection is the only modality that offers a chance for a cure, with an overall survival rate of 10-20% at 5 years. However, only 20% of the patients are surgical candidates because of locally advanced disease or systemic stage at presentation. Conventional radiotherapy, with or without chemotherapy, has been used to treat patients with advanced-stage pancreatic cancer, an approach with high rates of local recurrence. Stereotactic body radiation therapy, also known as stereotactic ablative radiotherapy has emerged as a treatment modality that allows the precise delivery of a large ablative radiation dose to a tumor volume while sparing surrounding organs and tissues. Phase I and II studies have shown good rates of local control of the disease but rates of distant metastasis remain significant. Strategies to combine novel systemic therapy and stereotactic body radiation therapy are to be explored.
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Sourianarayanane A, El-Gazzaz G, Sanabria JR, Menon KVN, Quintini C, Hashimoto K, Kelly D, Eghtesad B, Miller C, Fung J, Aucejo F. Loco-regional therapy in patients with Milan Criteria-compliant hepatocellular carcinoma and short waitlist time to transplant: an outcome analysis. HPB (Oxford) 2012; 14:325-32. [PMID: 22487070 PMCID: PMC3384852 DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-2574.2012.00453.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Liver transplantation (LT) in Milan Criteria (MC) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has excellent outcomes. Pre-transplant loco-regional therapy (LRT) has been used to downstage HCC to meet the MC. However, its benefit in patients with a brief waiting time to transplant remains unclear. This study evaluated outcomes in patients with short waitlist times to LT for MC-compliant HCC. METHODS Patients undergoing LT for MC HCC at either of two transplant centres between 2002 and 2009 were retrospectively evaluated for outcome. Patients for whom post-transplant follow-up amounted to <12 months were excluded. RESULTS A total of 225 patients were included, 93 (41.3%) of whom received neoadjuvant LRT. The median waiting time to transplant was 48 days. Mean post-transplant follow-up was 32.2 months. Overall and disease-free survival at 1 year, 3 years and 5 years were 93.1%, 82.4% and 72.6%, and 91.3%, 79.3% and 70.6%, respectively. There was no difference in overall (P= 0.94) and disease-free survival (P= 0.94) between groups who received and did not receive pre-LT LRT. There were also no disparities in survival or tumour recurrence among categories of patients (with single tumours measuring <3 cm, with single tumours measuring 3-5 cm, with multiple tumours). CONCLUSIONS Loco-regional therapy followed by rapid transplantation in MC HCC appears not to have an impact on post-transplant outcome.
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Ibarra RA, Rojas D, Snyder L, Yao M, Fabien J, Milano M, Katz A, Goodman K, Stephans K, El-Gazzaz G, Aucejo F, Miller C, Fung J, Lo S, Machtay M, Sanabria JR. Multicenter results of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for non-resectable primary liver tumors. Acta Oncol 2012; 51:575-83. [PMID: 22263926 DOI: 10.3109/0284186x.2011.652736] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND An excess of 100 000 individuals are diagnosed with primary liver tumors every year in USA but less than 20% of those patients are amenable to definitive surgical management due to advanced local disease or comorbidities. Local therapies to arrest tumor growth have limited response and have shown no improvement on patient survival. Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) has emerged as an alternative local ablative therapy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the tumor response to SBRT in a combined multicenter database. STUDY DESIGN Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, n = 21) or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC, n = 11) treated with SBRT from four Academic Medical Centers were entered into a common database. Statistical analyses were performed for freedom from local progression (FFLP) and patient survival. RESULTS The overall FFLP for advanced HCC was 63% at a median follow-up of 12.9 months. Median tumor volume decreased from 334.2 to 135 cm(3) (p < 0.004). The median time to local progression was 6.3 months. The 1- and 2-years overall survival rates were 87% and 55%, respectively. Patients with ICC had an overall FFLP of 55.5% at a median follow-up of 7.8 months. The median time to local progression was 4.2 months and the six-month and one-year overall survival rates were 75% and 45%, respectively. The incidence of grade 1-2 toxicities, mostly nausea and fatigue, was 39.5%. Grade 3 and 4 toxicities were present in two and one patients, respectively. CONCLUSION Higher rates of FFLP were achieved by SBRT in the treatment of primary liver malignancies with low toxicity.
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Goyal K, Einstein D, Ibarra RA, Yao M, Kunos C, Ellis R, Brindle J, Singh D, Hardacre J, Zhang Y, Fabians J, Funkhouser G, Machtay M, Sanabria JR. Stereotactic body radiation therapy for nonresectable tumors of the pancreas. J Surg Res 2011; 174:319-25. [PMID: 21937061 DOI: 10.1016/j.jss.2011.07.044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2011] [Revised: 07/12/2011] [Accepted: 07/29/2011] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) has emerged as a potential treatment option for local tumor control of primary malignancies of the pancreas. We report on our experience with SBRT in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma who were found not to be candidates for surgical resection. METHODS The prospective database of the first 20 consecutive patients receiving SBRT for unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinomas and a neuroendocrine tumor under an IRB approved protocol was reviewed. Prior to SBRT, cylindrical solid gold fiducial markers were placed within or around the tumor endoscopically (n = 13), surgically (n = 4), or percutaneously under computerized tomography (CT)-guidance (n = 3) to allow for tracking of tumor during therapy. Mean radiation dose was 25 Gray (Gy) (range 22-30 Gy) delivered over 1-3 fractions. Chemotherapy was given to 68% of patients in various schedules/timing. RESULTS Patients had a mean gross tumor volume of 57.2 cm(3) (range 10.1-118 cm(3)) before SBRT. The mean total gross tumor volume reduction at 3 and 6 mo after SBRT were 21% and 38%, respectively (P < 0.05). Median follow-up was 14.57 mo (range 5-23 mo). The overall rate of freedom from local progression at 6 and 12 mo were 88% and 65%. The probability of overall survival at 6 and 12 mo were 89% and 56%. No patient had a complication related to fiducial markers placement regardless of modality. The rate of radiation-induced adverse events was: grade 1-2 (11%) and grade 3 (16%). There were no grade 4/5 adverse events seen. CONCLUSION Our preliminary results showed SBRT as a safe and likely effective local treatment modality for pancreatic primary malignancy with acceptable rate of adverse events.
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Kombu RS, Zhang GF, Abbas R, Mieyal JJ, Anderson VE, Kelleher JK, Sanabria JR, Brunengraber H. Dynamics of glutathione and ophthalmate traced with 2H-enriched body water in rats and humans. Am J Physiol Endocrinol Metab 2009; 297:E260-9. [PMID: 19401458 PMCID: PMC2711657 DOI: 10.1152/ajpendo.00080.2009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
We developed a LC-MS-MS assay of the (2)H labeling of free glutathione (GSH) and bound glutathione [GSSR; which includes all DTT-reducible forms, primarily glutathione disulfide (GSSG) and mixed disulfides with proteins] and ophthalmate (an index of GSH depletion) labeled from (2)H-enriched body water. In rats whose body water was 2.5% (2)H enriched for up to 31 days, GSH labeling follows a complex pattern because of different rates of labeling of its constitutive amino acids. In rats infused with [(13)C(2),(15)N-glycine]glutathione, the rate of appearance of plasma GSH was 2.1 micromol.min(-1).kg(-1), and the half-life of plasma GSH/GSSR was 6-8 min. In healthy humans whose body fluids were 0.5% (2)H enriched, the (2)H labeling of GSH/GSSR and ophthalmate can be precisely measured after 4 h, with GSH being more rapidly labeled than GSSR. Since plasma GSH/GSSR derives mostly from liver, this technique opens the way to 2) probe noninvasively the labeling pattern and redox status of the liver GSH system in humans and 2) assess the usefulness of ophthalmate as an index of GSH depletion.
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Abbas R, Kombu RS, Dignam D, Gunning W, Stulberg JJ, Brunengraber H, Sanabria JR. Polyethylene glycol modified-albumin enhances the cold preservation properties of University of Wisconsin solution in rat liver and a hepatocyte cell line. J Surg Res 2009; 164:95-104. [PMID: 19577257 DOI: 10.1016/j.jss.2009.03.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2009] [Revised: 03/07/2009] [Accepted: 03/17/2009] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Liver grafts preserved in cold storage undergo changes mainly manifested by morphological modifications of the sinusoidal endothelium that result in poor graft function upon reperfusion. The present studies aimed to determine if the addition of polyethylene glycol-albumin to University of Wisconsin (Peg-AlbUW) solution ameliorates the cold preservation injuries of liver grafts. Rat livers were preserved cold with various preservation solutions and evaluated for weight changes and endothelial morphology. Solutions that preserved graft weight and endothelial morphology were tested in the isolated perfused rat liver model to assess graft function. A rat hepatocyte cell line was evaluated for both viability and glutathione concentrations emulating cold preservation and reperfusion conditions. Liver grafts preserved with Peg-AlbUW maintained their initial weight and showed a conserved endothelial morphology compared with liver grafts preserved in UW for 30 h (P<0.05). Liver grafts preserved with Peg-AlbUW had improved portal blood flow and bile secretion compared with liver grafts preserved in UW for 30 h (P<0.05). In vitro we noted comparable hepatocyte viability when cells were preserved in Peg-AlbUW versus UW under similar preservation conditions (P>0.05); glutathione concentrations (reduced and total) were significantly increased in hepatocytes preserved in 3% Peg-AlbUW compared with other preservation solutions (P<0.05). The addition of Peg-Alb to UW preservation solution ameliorated the cold preservation injuries of rat liver grafts as shown by stable liver graft weight, a better preservation of the endothelial morphology, improved portal vein blood flow, and increased bile secretion. Peg-Alb-UW solution improved the integrity of the glutathione redox buffer system of a hepatocyte cell line after cold storage and reperfusion.
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Messick C, Hardacre JM, McGee MF, Siegel CT, Stellato TA, Sanabria JR, Kinsella TJ, Schulak JA. Early experience with intraoperative radiotherapy in patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Am J Surg 2008; 195:308-11; discussion 312. [PMID: 18207129 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2007.12.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2007] [Revised: 12/13/2007] [Accepted: 12/13/2007] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The use of intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) in patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma has not been clearly defined. METHODS The medical records of our first 22 patients receiving IORT for resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (2001 to 2006) were reviewed and compared with the records of 27 consecutive patients not receiving IORT for resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (2004 to 2006). RESULTS There were no 30-day mortalities in either group, and complication rates were similar. Local recurrence occurred in 18% in the IORT group (median 14 months) and 12% in the no-IORT group (median 7 months). Distant recurrence occurred in 47% in the IORT group (median 11 months) and 32% in the no-IORT group (median 6.5 months). Median overall, stage-specific, and location-specific survival did not differ between the groups. CONCLUSIONS Although limited in size and follow-up, our experience showed that complications, recurrence, and survival were not affected by IORT, but time to recurrence may be longer with IORT.
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SUBRAMANIAN RAJANKOMBU, Abbas R, David F, Sanabria JR, Anderson VE, Brunengraber H. Measurement of glutathione turnover in human plasma by labeling from 2H‐enriched water and LC‐MS/MS. FASEB J 2008. [DOI: 10.1096/fasebj.22.1_supplement.1016.5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Brunengraber DZ, Sayre CS, Allen F, Cendrowski AV, Sanabria JR, Previs SF. Absence of intestinal gluconeogenesis in rats and dogs. FASEB J 2007. [DOI: 10.1096/fasebj.21.6.a1073-c] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Bigam DL, Hemming AW, Sanabria JR, Cattral MS. Innominate artery interposition graft simplifies the portal venous drainage method of pancreas transplantation. Transplantation 1999; 68:314-5. [PMID: 10440410 DOI: 10.1097/00007890-199907270-00029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Pancreas transplantation utilizing portal venous and enteric exocrine drainage has potential benefits over the standard systemic venous and bladder exocrine drainage method. Unfortunately, technical difficulties are often experienced with the arterial anastomosis after the portal venous anastomosis is completed. We have found that the addition of an innominate artery interposition graft has greatly simplified the procedure.
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Willsher PC, Sanabria JR, Gallinger S, Rossi L, Strasberg S, Litwin DE. Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis: a safe procedure. J Gastrointest Surg 1999; 3:50-3. [PMID: 10457324 DOI: 10.1016/s1091-255x(99)80008-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
Acute cholecystitis is increasingly managed by laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Some reports have shown conversion and complication rates that are increased in comparison to elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. This study reviews the combined experience of two hospitals where the intention was to perform early laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis. A total of 152 cases of laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis (evidence of acute inflammation clinically and pathologically) were identified. Conversion to open cholecystectomy was required in 14 cases (9%) in the total series. Laparoscopic cholecystectomy was performed within 2 days of admission in 76% (115 of 152) of patients. Conversion was significantly less likely in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy within 2 days of admission (4 of 115) compared to those undergoing surgery beyond 2 days (10 of 37; P<0.0001). Eleven patients (7%) had postoperative complications; however, there were no cases of injury to the biliary system and no perioperative deaths. This series shows that laparoscopic cholecystectomy can be performed safely in patients with acute cholecystitis and suggests that early laparoscopic cholecystectomy is preferable to delaying surgery. Although the conversion rate to open surgery is higher than for elective cholecystectomy, the majority of patients (91%) still derive the well-recognized benefits of laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy is an acceptable approach to acute cholecystitis for the experienced laparoscopic surgeon.
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Sanabria JR, Hiruki T, Szalay DA, Tandan V, Gallinger S. Superior mesenteric vein thrombosis after the Whipple procedure: an aggressive, combined treatment approach. Can J Surg 1997; 40:467-70. [PMID: 9416259 PMCID: PMC3950044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
It is now recognized that occlusion of the mesenteric veins not only may complicate a number of disease processes but may occur as a life-threatening complication after abdominal surgery. A 32-year-old woman had mesenteric venous thrombosis after resection of a duodenal inflammatory pseudotumour by pancreatoduodenectomy. She recovered fully after treatment, which consisted of thrombectomy, flushing with urokinase and intravenous administration of heparin. Papaverine infused for 4 days substantially improved bowel viability. Current concepts in mesenteric vein occlusion and the principles of clinical management are reviewed.
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Sanabria JR, Gordon ER, Harvey PR, Goresky CA, Strasberg SM. Accumulation of unconjugated bilirubin in cholesterol pellets implanted in swine gallbladders. Gastroenterology 1996; 110:607-13. [PMID: 8566610 DOI: 10.1053/gast.1996.v110.pm8566610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Most cholesterol gallstones have a pigmented center, but it is unclear whether its presence is primary or secondary. This study was performed to determine if bilirubin would accumulate in a gallstone model consisting of cholesterol pellets. METHODS Cholesterol was compressed into pellets at 2500 psi, producing a pellet that behaved like human cholesterol gallstones in regard to penetration of solutes into the stone. Pellets were implanted into gallbladders of pigs and harvested after 4 weeks. Bilirubin species were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography. RESULTS The proportions of bilirubin species in bile were not changed by the presence of pellets, i.e., diconjugates (mean +/- SD, 1.9% +/- 1.0% vs. 0.7% +/- 0.8%), monoconjugates (83.8% +/- 5.5% vs. 87.8% +/- 6.6%), and unconjugated bilirubin (14.2% +/- 5.3% vs. 11.5% +/- 5.6%) were similar at the time of implantation and removal. The cut surfaces of the pellets were pigmented. Pellets contained 5.46 +/- 1.38 micrograms bilirubin/g sample at harvesting, and 98.6% +/- 2.3% of bilirubin in pellets was unconjugated. In in vitro studies, there was a large increase in unconjugated bilirubin in the bile. Pellets also became pigmented in vitro, but there was considerable variability in the bilirubin species present in the pellets. CONCLUSIONS Unconjugated bilirubin accumulates in cholesterol pellets and pigments them. This provides a mechanism by which cholesterol gallstones could become secondarily pigmented.
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Sanabria JR, Croxford R, Berk TC, Cohen Z, Bapat BV, Gallinger S. Familial segregation in the occurrence and severity of periampullary neoplasms in familial adenomatous polyposis. Am J Surg 1996; 171:136-40; discussion 140-1. [PMID: 8554128 DOI: 10.1016/s0002-9610(99)80088-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) patients often develop periampullary adenomas that may progress to periampullary cancer, a common cause of death in this population. The risk of periampullary cancer in FAP is unclear, and variables that predict the occurrence and severity of periampullary tumors are not well understood. The specific aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of periampullary neoplasia segregates in specific FAP families. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 144 FAP patients from 74 families were either screened by gastroduodenoscopy (n = 132) or information was obtained from surgical or autopsy reports (n = 12). The severity of periampullary neoplasia was recorded for each patient and graded based on maximum polyp size and histology. Linear regression was used to determine the significance of a number of variables with respect to periampullary neoplasia. A blood sample was available from at least one member of 50 unrelated families and used to detect germline mutations in codons 686 through 1693 of the adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) gene. RESULTS Statistically significant familial segregation was found for the incidence and severity of periampullary neoplasia (P < 0.02). Age was also a statistically significant variable (P < 0.01). No correlation was observed between specific APC germline mutations and periampullary polyp frequency and severity. CONCLUSIONS The occurrence and severity of periampullary neoplasms in patients with FAP segregates in families. This familial association may be related to as yet unidentified modifier genes or perhaps common environmental factors. These results should prove useful in developing upper gastrointestinal screening protocols for FAP patients at risk for periampullary neoplasia.
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Sanabria JR, Upadhya A, Mullen B, Harvey PR, Strasberg SM. Effect of deoxycholate on immunoglobulin G concentration in bile: studies in humans and pigs. Hepatology 1995; 21:215-22. [PMID: 7806157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/06/2022]
Abstract
Because an increase in biliary deoxycholate levels seems to be a risk factor for cholesterol gallstone formation, we determined the relationship between deoxycholate levels and levels of the pronucleating protein, immunoglobulin G (Ig) in human gallbladder bile. Patients with cholesterol gallstones had a higher concentration of biliary IgG compared with a pigmented stone group and control patients. This was associated with the simultaneous presence of two conditions in the cholesterol stone group, supersaturated bile and a high deoxycholate/cholate ratio. The other patient groups met only one of the two conditions. Next, animal studies were performed to determine if model biles mimicking the two conditions could affect IgG secretion by the gallbladder. Gallbladders were exposed in vivo and then in an Ussing chamber to model biles. The voltage clamp technique was used to monitor functional integrity of the preparation. Three different model biles were tested: (1) taurodeoxycholate (TDC), 80%; taurocholate (TC), 20%; and cholesterol saturation index (CSI), 1.2; (2) TDC, 20%; TC, 80%; and CSI, 1.2; and (3) TDC, 80%; TC, 20%; and CSI, 0.6. IgG concentrations became significantly higher in group 1 than in the other two groups. The concentration of mucous glycoprotein was also significantly greater in group 1 when compared with group 2. Plasma cells were increased in number in mucosal and submucosal layers in group 1. We conclude that cholesterol supersaturated model bile with high content of TDC induces gallbladder epithelial alterations, which increase the luminal concentration of IgG and mucous glycoprotein.
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Sanabria JR, Gallinger S, Croxford R, Strasberg SM. Risk factors in elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy for conversion to open cholecystectomy. J Am Coll Surg 1994; 179:696-704. [PMID: 7952482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most cholecystectomies can be performed using a laparoscopic approach. However, 3 to 10 percent of laparoscopic cholecystectomies (LC) must be converted to open cholecystectomies (OC) and preoperative factors that predict risk for conversion are still not defined. STUDY DESIGN Preoperative and intraoperative data were collected and analyzed from 628 patients who were scheduled for elective LC by two surgeons in an academic institution. Logistic regression was performed on data from two groups of patients: LC completed, 596 patients (95 percent) and LC converted, 32 patients (5 percent). RESULTS Elective LC was accomplished with no common bile duct injuries, low morbidity rate (7.3 percent), and zero mortality rate. Both patient and surgeon factors predicted conversion from LC to OC. Older patients (65 years of age or older, (p < 0.01), males (p < 0.01), and patients with multiple attacks (ten or more) of biliary colic (p < 0.01), or a documented history of acute cholecystitis (p < 0.01) had a greater risk for conversion. Both surgeons had higher rates of conversion (p < 0.05) during the learning phase (fewer than 50 LC) of their experience. CONCLUSIONS Risk factors for conversion may be predicted and awareness of these factors should help in the selection of the appropriate procedure for patients and in selection of cases for resident training.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS The possibility that substances penetrate gallstones and accumulate after stones have formed has not been examined. The specific aims of this study were to determine whether cholesterol gallstones are permeable and, if so, the effect of molecular weight on permeability. METHODS Cholesterol gallstones from patients with multiple stones were collected during surgery and incubated in fluorescein solution or in solutions of fluoresceinated albumin or immunoglobulin (Ig) G. To determine egress from the stones, some stones were removed from the fluoresceinated solution after incubation and placed in bicarbonate buffer. The total area of the stone and the area of dye that had diffused into the calculi were calculated. To determine mass of penetrating IgG, stones were powdered after incubation, and IgG was measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS All substances penetrated stones. Although all compounds tested diffused back out of the stones when they were replaced in buffer, proteins did so more slowly than fluorescein. CONCLUSIONS Substances of different molecular weights can diffuse into and out of cholesterol gallstones. These findings must be taken into account when considering the role of substances contained in stones on stone formation and growth.
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Cywes R, Packham MA, Tietze L, Sanabria JR, Harvey PR, Phillips MJ, Strasberg SM. Role of platelets in hepatic allograft preservation injury in the rat. Hepatology 1993. [PMID: 8359805 DOI: 10.1002/hep.1840180324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
Cold preservation of liver allografts injuries hepatic sinusoidal lining cells. This injury is exacerbated on reperfusion, in part because of adhesion of leukocytes. Platelets also adhere to activated endothelial surfaces. In this study we examined the role of platelets in preservation injury. Our specific aim was to determine whether the degree of platelet adhesion on reperfusion of preserved rat livers was related to duration of cold or warm ischemia and whether platelet adhesion resulted in injury to allografts. We also examined the effect of prior activation of platelets on adhesion and injury. Rat livers were preserved at 1 degree C for different time periods in University of Wisconsin solution and then reperfused for 3 hr on the isolated perfused rat liver system with Krebs-Henseleit solution to which unactivated isolated rat platelets were added. Other livers were rewarmed before reperfusion or reperfused with activated platelets. Platelets were lost from the circulation in all studies; the percentage reduction of circulating platelets was dependent on the length of preservation. The initial platelet concentration did not affect the rate of reduction of platelets in the circuit. Rewarming before reperfusion increased platelet adherence, and prior activation also increased adherence. With electron microscopy we determined that platelets adhered in small aggregates to endothelial cells or endothelial cell remnants. Adherent platelets appeared more activated and contained fewer granules than did unperfused platelets. Liver injury as measured by release of transaminases into perfusate was worsened by longer periods of cold preservation and by addition of rewarming to the protocol. The presence of platelets under these circumstances aggravated injury. Prior activation of platelets also increased the extent of injury. These studies show that platelets have an important role in cold preservation-reperfusion injury.
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Sanabria JR, Clavien PA, Cywes R, Strasberg SM. Laparoscopic versus open cholecystectomy: a matched study. Can J Surg 1993; 36:330-6. [PMID: 8103704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
To determine the efficacy of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) in the treatment of gallstone disease, all patients who underwent elective surgery for cholelithiasis during three consecutive periods (1989, 1990 and 1991) were studied. There were 121 patients in each period. All patients in the first period underwent open cholecystectomy (OC), whereas 70 (58%) patients underwent laparoscopic procedures in the second period (OC-LC). LC was the treatment of choice in the third period. Multiple factors, including sex, age, clinical and biochemical presentation of the disease and modified Apache II score were comparable among the three groups. The authors found significant differences in length of hospitalization (6.4 +/- 4.2 days in the OC group, 3.6 +/- 2.4 days in the OC-LC group and 2.4 +/- 1.7 days in the LC group, p < 0.01 when compared with the OC group) and return to work after surgery (5.8 +/- 2.8 weeks, 2.8 +/- 1.2 weeks and 1.3 +/- 1.8 weeks respectively, p < 0.01 when compared with the OC group). There was no significant difference in postoperative complications among the groups, but complications in the OC patients were more severe. Although operative time increased significantly after the introduction of LC, it returned to the range of OC after 36 procedures. Nine patients (5%) with LC required conversion to OC. Benefits of LC include a shorter hospital stay and a shorter recovery period. There were no deaths, very low morbidity, a substantial decrease in overall cost and a high degree of patient satisfaction with LC.
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Clavien PA, Sanabria JR, Upadhaya A, Harvey PR, Strasberg SM. Evidence of the existence of a soluble mediator of cold preservation injury. Transplantation 1993; 56:44-53. [PMID: 8333066 DOI: 10.1097/00007890-199307000-00008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023]
Abstract
A study was designed to determine whether soluble mediators of injury are released during cold preservation. A first set of livers consisting of three groups was stored in cold Euro-Collins solution. These were a control group stored for 10 min (group 1), an experimental group stored for 16 hr (group 2), and an "antiprotease" group to which a cocktail of antiproteases had been added, which was also stored for 16 hr (group 3). The preservation solution in these livers was washed out at the end of preservation, and this effluent was concentrated and infused into a second set of livers that were all cold-stored for 4 hr. Then, the second-set livers were either perfused-fixed at 4 degrees C with universal fixative or reperfused at 37 degrees C for 180 min in the isolated perfused rat liver (IPRL). Morphometric assessment of sinusoidal lining cells (SLC) on light and electron microscopy showed an increased degree of microcirculatory injury in livers preserved with concentrates from livers of the experimental group. On light microscopy, only 2.2 +/- 0.4% (mean +/- SD) of the SLC had a normal flattened morphology compared with 11.9 +/- 2.0% in the control group, and 10.7 +/- 2.3% of the SLC appeared completely detached from the underlying hepatocytes compared with 2.6 +/- 0.8% in the control group, the differences being statistically significant (P < 0.05). This injury was prevented by the addition of antiproteases to EC solution. Similar results were obtained in the IPRL model, in which a number of typical changes related to cold preservation injury were noted in livers preserved with concentrates from the experimental group. Compared with controls, livers preserved with concentrates from the experimental group had early and significant alterations in markers of microcirculatory injury, including a reduction in portal flow and an increase in creatinine kinase-BB isoenzyme release, followed by an increase in perfusate transaminases, LDH, and a decrease in bile production. Again the injuries were largely prevented by the addition of antiproteases. There were no differences among groups in the degree of white cell and platelet adherence during reperfusion. Experiments using UW solution showed similar results, indicating that the soluble mediator(s) is not specific for a particular preservation solution. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that soluble mediators are produced during the hypothermic period, and are responsible for a significant part of cold preservation injury, and that proteolytic reactions are involved in this type of injury.
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Sanabria JR, Clavien PA, Cywes R, Strasberg SM. Multiple intrahepatic cholesterol stones. Can J Surg 1993; 36:255-60. [PMID: 8324673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The authors report a case of multiple intrahepatic cholesterol stones found in an asymptomatic patient who had undergone cholecystectomy 12 years before. Biochemical abnormalities and radiologic and pathologic findings are noted. The patient underwent liver resection with Roux-en-Y choledochojejunostomy and received ursodeoxycholic acid postoperatively. Recovery was uncomplicated, and the patient was well at 1-year follow-up. Intrahepatic cholesterol lithiasis is rare but can be diagnosed preoperatively. Treatment depends on the presence of complications and the distribution of the stones.
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