Effectiveness of a 3 + 0 pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule against invasive pneumococcal disease among a birth cohort of 1.4 million children in Australia

BACKGROUND

Most studies use indirect cohort or case-control methods to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 7- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7 and PCV13) against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Neither method can measure the benefit vaccination programs afford the unvaccinated and many studies were unable to estimate dose-specific VE. We linked Australia's national immunisation register with health data from two states to calculate IPD incidence by vaccination status and VE for a 3 + 0 PCV schedule (doses at 2, 4, 6 months, no booster) among a cohort of 1.4 million births.

METHODS

Births records for 2001-2012 were probabilistically linked to IPD notifications, hospitalisations, deaths, and vaccination history (available until December 2013). IPD rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated children <2 years old were compared using Cox proportional hazards models (adjusting for potential confounders), with VE = (1 - adjusted hazard ratio) × 100. Separate models were performed for all-cause, PCV7, PCV13 and PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, and for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

RESULTS

Following introduction of universal PCV7 in 2005, rates of PCV7 serotype and all-cause IPD in unvaccinated children declined 89.5% and 61.4%, respectively, to be similar to rates in vaccinated children. Among non-Aboriginal children, VEs for 3 doses were 94.2% (95%CI: 81.9-98.1) for PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, 85.6% (95%CI: 60.5-94.8) for PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD and 80.1% (95%CI: 59.4-90.3) for all-cause IPD. There were no statistically significant differences between the VEs for 3 doses and for 1 or 2 doses against PCV13 and PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, or between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

CONCLUSION

Our population-based cohort study demonstrates that >90% coverage in the first year of a universal 3 + 0 PCV program provided high population-level protection, predominantly attributable to strong herd effects. The size of the cohort enabled calculation of robust dose-specific VE estimates for important population sub-groups relevant to vaccination policies internationally.

Declining measles antibodies in the era of elimination: Australia's experience

BACKGROUND

Australia is one of only a few countries with a long-standing and consistent serosurveillance program. We conducted a national serosurvey in 2012-2013 to estimate population seroprevalence of measles-specific IgG and the effective reproduction number, R, and compare the results with the three previous serosurveys (1996-1999, 2002 and 2007) to examine trends following a decade of sustained measles control.

METHODS

2729 residual sera from 1 to 49 year olds were tested using the Enzygnost anti-measles IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA). All sera in the equivocal range by EIA on re-testing and a random sample of low positive and negative sera were later tested by a microneutralisation assay. R was calculated from weighted estimates of the proportion seronegative by age using a previously developed contact matrix.

RESULTS

In the 2012-13 serosurvey, anti-measles IgG seropositivity for 1-49 year olds was 80.8% (95% CI: 79.4-82.3%) and 8.9% (95% CI: 7.8-10.0%) had equivocal antibody levels. The increasing proportion of seronegative and equivocal individuals in age groups 10-39 years continued a trend seen in previous serosurveys. There was also an increase in equivocal results among 2-4 and 5-9 year old children, >90% of whom were recently vaccinated. R increased from 0.57 in 1999 to above the epidemic threshold of 1 in 2012-13 (R = 1.7). All 20 EIA negative sera, 238/241 (98.8%) equivocal sera, and 89/92 (96.7%) low positive sera had a titre <10 (negative) in the measles microneutralisation assay.

CONCLUSIONS

A number of countries with sustained measles control have now demonstrated that measles-specific IgG antibodies decline with time since vaccination. As there is good epidemiologic evidence of population-level protection, the implications of declining measles-specific IgG antibody levels for maintaining measles elimination are unclear. Novel studies to determine correlates of protection against measles transmission and disease in the post-elimination era are needed to help answer this question.

Epidemiology of invasive meningococcal B disease in Australia, 1999-2015: priority populations for vaccination

OBJECTIVES

To describe trends in the age-specific incidence of serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Australia, 1999-2015.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Analysis in February 2017 of de-identified notification data from the Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System of all notifications of IMD in Australia with a recorded diagnosis date during 1999-2015.Major outcomes: IMD notification rates in Australia, 1999-2015, by age, serogroup, Indigenous status, and region.

RESULTS

The incidence of meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) disease declined progressively from 1.52 cases per 100 000 population in 2001 to 0.47 per 100 000 in 2015. During 2006-2015, MenB accounted for 81% of IMD cases with a known serogroup; its highest incidence was among infants under 12 months of age (11.1 [95% CI, 9.81-12.2] per 100 000), children aged 1-4 years (2.82 [95% CI, 2.52-3.15] per 100 000), and adolescents aged 15-19 years (2.40 [95% CI, 2.16-2.67] per 100 000). Among the 473 infants under 2 years of age with MenB, 43% were under 7 months and 69% under 12 months of age. The incidence of meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) disease prior to the introduction of the MenC vaccine in 2003 was much lower in infants than for MenB (2.60 cases per 100 000), the rate peaking in people aged 15-19 years (3.32 per 100 000); the overall case fatality rate was also higher (MenC, 8%; MenB, 4%). The incidence of MenB disease was significantly higher among Indigenous than non-Indigenous Australians during 2006-2015 (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 3.8; 95% CI, 3.3-4.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on disease incidence at its current low endemic levels, priority at risk age/population groups for MenB vaccination include all children between 2 months and 5 years of age, Indigenous children under 10 years of age, and all adolescents aged 15-19 years. Given marked variation in meningococcal disease trends over time, close scrutiny of current epidemiologic data is essential.

Probabilistic linkage of national immunisation and state-based health records for a cohort of 1.9 million births to evaluate Australia's childhood immunisation program

Introduction

Several countries have developed national immunisation registers, but only the Nordic countries have linked their registers to other health data in order to comprehensively evaluate the `real world' effectiveness of vaccines. Nordic countries can link datasets deterministically using the national person identifier, but most countries, including Australia, don't have such an identifier to enable this type of linkage.

Objectives

To describe the process for assembling a linked study cohort that will enable the conduct of population-based studies related to immunisation and immunisation policy.

Methods

National death and immunisation databases along with state health data (notifications of vaccine preventable diseases, perinatal data, hospital admissions and emergency department presentations) up until December 2013 were probabilistically linked (using demographic details) for children born between 1996 and 2012 in two states: Western Australia and New South Wales (42% of Australia's population, combined).

Results

After exclusions there were 1.95 million children in the study cohort (live born children with both a birth and perinatal record which represents 97.5% of all live births in the state perinatal data collections - our source population) and 18.0 million person years of follow up (mean: 9.2 years per child). The characteristics of children in the cohort were generally similar to those only included in state perinatal databases and outcome measures were in keeping with expected figures from unlinked data sources. However, the lack of a dynamic national population register meant immigrants could not be included.

Conclusions

We have been able to develop a similarly comprehensive system to the Nordic countries based on probabilistic linkage methods. Our experience should provide encouragement to other countries with national immunisation registers looking to establish similar systems.

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected.

A global database of nitrogen and phosphorus excretion rates of aquatic animals

Animals can be important in modulating ecosystem-level nutrient cycling, although their importance varies greatly among species and ecosystems. Nutrient cycling rates of individual animals represent valuable data for testing the predictions of important frameworks such as the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) and ecological stoichiometry (ES). They also represent an important set of functional traits that may reflect both environmental and phylogenetic influences. Over the past two decades, studies of animal-mediated nutrient cycling have increased dramatically, especially in aquatic ecosystems. Here we present a global compilation of aquatic animal nutrient excretion rates. The dataset includes 10,534 observations from freshwater and marine animals of N and/or P excretion rates. These observations represent 491 species, including most aquatic phyla. Coverage varies greatly among phyla and other taxonomic levels. The dataset includes information on animal body size, ambient temperature, taxonomic affiliations, and animal body N:P. This data set was used to test predictions of MTE and ES, as described in Vanni and McIntyre (2016; Ecology DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1582).

Reconstructing larval growth and habitat use in an amphidromous goby using otolith increments and microchemistry

High-resolution analysis of growth increments, trace element chemistry and oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸ O) in otoliths were combined to assess larval and post-larval habitat use and growth of Awaous stamineus, an amphidromous goby native to Hawai'i. Otolith increment widths indicate that all individuals experience a brief period of rapid growth during early life as larvae and that the duration of this growth anomaly is negatively correlated with larval duration. A protracted high-growth period early in larval life is associated with a lower ratio of Sr:Ca, which may reflect low salinity conditions in nearshore habitats. A distinct shift in δ¹⁸ O (range: 4-5‰) is closely associated with the metamorphic mark in otoliths, indicating that larval metamorphosis occurs promptly upon return to fresh water. Strontium and other trace elements are not as tightly coupled to the metamorphosis mark, but confirm the marine-to-freshwater transition. Integration of microstructural and microchemical approaches reveals that larvae vary substantially in growth rate, possibly in association with habitat differences. Although time and financial costs make it difficult to achieve large sample sizes, present results show that examining even a small number of individuals can lead to novel inferences about early life history in diadromous fishes and illustrates the value of integrating analyses.

Immunisation coverage annual report, 2014

This 8th annual immunisation coverage report shows data for 2014 derived from the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register and the National Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Program Register. This report includes coverage data for 'fully immunised' and by individual vaccines at standard age milestones and timeliness of receipt at earlier ages according to Indigenous status. Overall, 'fully immunised' coverage has been mostly stable at the 12- and 24-month age milestones since late 2003, but at 60 months of age, it has increased by more than 10 percentage points since 2009. As in previous years, coverage for 'fully immunised' at 12 months of age among Indigenous children was 3.7% lower than for non-Indigenous children overall, varying from 6.9 percentage points in Western Australia to 0.3 of a percentage point in the Australian Capital Territory. In 2014, 73.4% of Australian females aged 15 years had 3 documented doses of human papillomavirus vaccine (jurisdictional range 67.7% to 77.4%), and 82.7% had at least 1 dose, compared with 71.4% and 81.5%, respectively, in 2013. The disparity in on-time vaccination between Indigenous and non-Indigenous children in 2014 diminished progressively from 20.2% for vaccines due by 12 months to 11.5% for those due by 24 months and 3.0% at 60 months of age.

Tumours in white suckers from Lake Michigan tributaries: pathology and prevalence

The prevalence and histopathology of neoplastic lesions were assessed in white sucker Catostomus commersonii captured at two Lake Michigan Areas of Concern (AOCs), the Sheboygan River and Milwaukee Estuary. Findings were compared to those observed at two non-AOC sites, the Root and Kewaunee rivers. At each site, approximately 200 adult suckers were collected during their spawning migration. Raised skin lesions were observed at all sites and included discrete white spots, mucoid plaques on the body surface and fins and large papillomatous lesions on lips and body. Microscopically, hyperplasia, papilloma and squamous cell carcinoma were documented. Liver neoplasms were also observed at all sites and included both hepatocellular and biliary tumours. Based on land use, the Kewaunee River was the site least impacted by human activities previously associated with fish tumours and had significantly fewer liver neoplasms when compared to the other sites. The proportion of white suckers with liver tumours followed the same patterns as the proportion of urban land use in the watershed: the Milwaukee Estuary had the highest prevalence, followed by the Root, Sheboygan and Kewaunee rivers. The overall skin neoplasm (papilloma and carcinoma) prevalence did not follow the same pattern, although the percentage of white suckers with squamous cell carcinoma exhibited a similar relationship to land use. Testicular tumours (seminoma) were observed at both AOC sites but not at the non-AOC sites. Both skin and liver tumours were significantly and positively associated with age but not sex.

Stable Isotopes Reveal Nitrogen Loading to Lake Tanganyika from Remote Shoreline Villages

Access to safe water is an ongoing challenge in rural areas in Tanzania where communities often lack access to improved sanitation. Methods to detect contamination of surface water bodies, such as monitoring nutrient concentrations and bacterial counts, are time consuming and results can be highly variable in space and time. On the northeast shore of Lake Tanganyika, Tanzania, the low population density coupled with the high potential for dilution in the lake necessitates the development of a sensitive method for detecting contamination in order to avoid human health concerns. We investigated the potential use of nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes of snail tissues to detect anthropogenic nutrient loading along the northeast shore of Lake Tanganyika. δ¹⁵N of snails was positively related to human population size in the nearest village, but only for villages with >4000 inhabitants. The areal footprint of villages within their watershed was also significantly correlated with snail δ¹⁵N, while agricultural land use and natural vegetation were not. Dissolved nutrient concentrations were not significantly different between village and reference sites. Our results indicate that nitrogen isotopes provide a sensitive index of local nutrient loading that can be used to monitor contamination of oligotrophic aquatic environments with low surrounding population densities.

Australian vaccine preventable disease epidemiological review series: Influenza 2006 to 2015

INTRODUCTION

Influenza is a major contributor to the preventable health burden of Australians each year. The National Immunisation Program provides influenza vaccine for those at highest risk of severe disease. This review of influenza epidemiology examines current data on influenza disease burden in Australia, in the context of several comparable countries having programs with much broader eligibility for influenza vaccine in children.

METHODS

Influenza notifications (2006-2015), hospitalisations, and deaths (2006-2013) were sourced and age-specific rates calculated. Comparisons were made across age groups in the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods and by Indigenous and non-Indigenous status.

RESULTS

The 2009 pandemic year and the 2012 non-pandemic season resulted in the highest rates of notification, hospitalisation and death. Influenza notification rates were 4.0 times higher and hospitalisation rates 2.1 times higher during 2011-2013 compared with 2006-2008. Death rates varied widely, but peaks corresponded to high-activity seasons. Influenza hospitalisation rates were highest among those aged <5 and ≥65 years, but influenza-attributable deaths were identified primarily in those aged ≥75 years. Significantly higher notification and hospitalisation rates were seen for all Indigenous people, but higher death rates were largely restricted to the 2009 pandemic year.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on notifications, hospitalisations and deaths, burden of disease from influenza is highest at the extremes of life and is significantly higher among Indigenous people of all ages. This pattern of disease burden warrants consideration of widened eligibility for influenza vaccine under the National Immunisation Program to all Indigenous people and all children less than 5 years of age.

Pertussis: Biology, epidemiology and prevention

Despite long-standing vaccination programs, substantial increases in reported cases of pertussis have been described in several countries during the last 5years. Cases among very young infants who are at greatest risk of pertussis-related hospitalizations and mortality are the most alarming. Multiple hypotheses including but not limited to the availability of more sensitive diagnostic tests, greater awareness, and waning vaccine-induced immunity over time have been posited for the current challenges with pertussis. The conference "Pertussis: biology, epidemiology and prevention" held in Annecy-France (November 11-13, 2015) brought together experts and interested individuals to examine these issues and to formulate recommendations for optimal use of current vaccines, with a particular focus on strategies to minimize severe morbidity and mortality among infants during the first months of life. The expert panel concluded that improving vaccination strategies with current vaccines and development of new highly immunogenic and efficacious pertussis vaccines that have acceptable adverse event profiles are currently the two main areas of investigation for the control of pertussis. Some possible pathways forward to address these main challenges are discussed in this report.

Prioritizing ecological restoration among sites in multi-stressor landscapes

Most ecosystems are impacted by multiple local and long-distance stressors, many of which interact in complex ways. We present a framework for prioritizing ecological restoration efforts among sites in multi-stressor landscapes. Using a simple model, we show that both the economic and sociopolitical costs of restoration will typically be lower at sites with a relatively small number of severe problems than at sites with numerous lesser problems. Based on these results, we propose using cumulative stress and evenness of stressor impact as complementary indices that together reflect key challenges of restoring a site to improved condition. To illustrate this approach, we analyze stressor evenness across the world's rivers and the Laurentian Great Lakes. This exploration reveals that evenness and cumulative stress are decoupled, enabling selection of sites where remediating a modest number of high-intensity stressors could substantially reduce cumulative stress. Just as species richness and species evenness are fundamental axes of biological diversity, we argue that cumulative stress and stressor evenness constitute fundamental axes for identifying restoration opportunities in multi-stressor landscapes. Our results highlight opportunities to boost restoration efficiency through strategic use of multi-stressor datasets to identify sites that maximize ecological response per stressor remediated. This prioritization framework can also be expanded to account for the feasibility of remediation and the expected societal benefits of restoration projects.

Summary of National Surveillance Data on Vaccine Preventable Diseases in Australia, 2008-2011

This summary report on vaccine preventable diseases in Australia brings together the 3 most important national sources of routinely collected data on vaccine preventable diseases (notifications, hospitalisations and deaths) for all age groups for the period January 2008 to December 2011. The general trend towards improved control of disease is evident, particularly in the childhood years. Detailed results are available in 16 individual chapters. Although these data have limitations, which are discussed in detail in the body of the report, some clear trends are evident. Compared with the previous review period (2005-2007), there are continuing declines in the overall disease burden, driven by improving control of mumps, rubella, hepatitis B and meningococcal disease. There is an ongoing absence of disease due to polio and a continuing low incidence of tetanus. There have been continuing declines in the incidence of hepatitis A and B. However, there were 4 notified cases of diphtheria in 2011; prior to these reports there had been no notified diphtheria cases since 2001. Influenza and pertussis notifications have increased, whereas notifications and hospitalisations for mumps have remained stable and for meningococcal disease have declined. Influenza, pertussis and pneumococcal disease continue to contribute the greatest burden of serious disease.

Risk factors and burden of acute Q fever in older adults in New South Wales: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To measure the acute burden of and to identify risk factors associated with notified Q fever in older adults in New South Wales.

DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

A prospective cohort of adults aged 45 years and over (the 45 and Up Study) recruited during 2006-2009 and followed using linked Q fever notifications, hospital records and death records during 2006-2012.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incident cases of Q fever, based on a linked Q fever notification; proportion of cases with a Q fever-coded hospitalisation.

RESULTS

A total of 266 906 participants were followed up for 1 254 650 person-years (mean, 4.7 ± 1.0 years per person). In our study population, the incidence of notified Q fever during follow-up was 3.6 (95% CI, 2.7-4.8) per 100 000 person-years. After adjustments, age (≥ 65 years v 45-54 years: hazard ratio [HR], 0.39; 95% CI, 0.16-0.96), sex (women v men: HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.26-0.88), and area and type of residence (P < 0.001 for trend) remained significantly associated with Q fever. Compared with those living in an inner regional area but not on a farm, the risk of notified Q fever was highest for those living on a farm in outer regional or remote areas (HR, 11.98; 95% CI, 5.47-26.21), followed by those living on a farm in inner regional areas (HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.79-13.65). Of notified Q fever cases, 15 of 39 (38%) had been hospitalised with a diagnosis consistent with Q fever.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults living on a farm in outer regional and remote areas are at a substantially greater risk of contracting Q fever. This suggests that, as well as targeting specific occupational groups for vaccination, there would be benefits in increasing public awareness of Q fever and vaccination among those living on and near farms in outer regional and remote areas of Australia.

Changing Patterns of Pertussis in a Children's Hospital in the Polymerase Chain Reaction Diagnostic Era

OBJECTIVE

To assess changes in diagnostic practice and vaccine schedules for pertussis, we used culture-confirmation and clinical severity to compare pertussis cases at a single Australian tertiary pediatric hospital during relevant periods.

STUDY DESIGN

We replicated the case ascertainment methods of a study reporting a 2-year epidemic period 1997-1999 (whole cell pertussis vaccine with 18-month booster, only culture available) to conduct a retrospective cross-sectional observational study over a 6-year period 2007-2012 (acellular pertussis vaccine, no 18-month booster, polymerase chain reaction and culture available). Cases were compared from case note review 2007-2012 (including prevalence of comorbidities) and published data 1997-1999.

RESULTS

During 2007-2012, average annual hospitalizations in those aged < 6 months increased 2.3-fold (32.0 vs 14.0) and in those aged > 6 months by 5.1-fold (17.7 vs 3.5). Limited to culture-positive hospitalizations, there was no increase in those aged < 6 months (14.0 vs 14.5) contrasted with a 4.6-fold increase in those aged > 6 months (2.3 vs 0.5), despite increased annual culture requests (488 vs 188). In 2007-2012, significant comorbidities were documented in 41/72 (57%) hospitalized children aged ≥ 12 months vs 38/225 (17%) <12 months (OR 6.5, 95% CI 3.7-11.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased cases of culture-positive hospitalized pertussis were limited to fully immunized children > 6 months of age, consistent with schedule changes. Significant comorbidities were common, making a booster dose at 12-18 months of age especially important.

Century-Long Warming Trends in the Upper Water Column of Lake Tanganyika

Lake Tanganyika, the deepest and most voluminous lake in Africa, has warmed over the last century in response to climate change. Separate analyses of surface warming rates estimated from in situ instruments, satellites, and a paleolimnological temperature proxy (TEX86) disagree, leaving uncertainty about the thermal sensitivity of Lake Tanganyika to climate change. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ temperature data from the top 100 meters of the water column that span the lake's seasonal range and lateral extent to demonstrate that long-term temperature trends in Lake Tanganyika depend strongly on depth, season, and latitude. The observed spatiotemporal variation in surface warming rates accounts for small differences between warming rate estimates from in situ instruments and satellite data. However, after accounting for spatiotemporal variation in temperature and warming rates, the TEX86 paleolimnological proxy yields lower surface temperatures (1.46 °C lower on average) and faster warming rates (by a factor of three) than in situ measurements. Based on the ecology of Thaumarchaeota (the microbes whose biomolecules are involved with generating the TEX86 proxy), we offer a reinterpretation of the TEX86 data from Lake Tanganyika as the temperature of the low-oxygen zone, rather than of the lake surface temperature as has been suggested previously. Our analyses provide a thorough accounting of spatiotemporal variation in warming rates, offering strong evidence that thermal and ecological shifts observed in this massive tropical lake over the last century are robust and in step with global climate change.

Pneumonia in Elderly Australians: Reduction in Presumptive Pneumococcal Hospitalizations but No Change in All-Cause Pneumonia Hospitalizations Following 7-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Studies evaluating long-term trends in hospitalizations coded as pneumonia following introduction of the 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) are sparse, especially in adults. We extended our previous analysis to 6.5 years after the "3 + 0" PCV7 schedule was introduced in Australia in 2005.

METHODS

We estimated vaccine impact on hospitalizations coded as pneumonia (pneumococcal/lobar, other specified, unspecified, and all-cause) using a multivariate negative binomial regression model of monthly hospitalization rates by age group for the pre-PCV7 (July 1998 to December 2004) and post-PCV7 (January 2005 to June 2011) periods, adjusting for vaccination coverage. Changes in pneumonia hospitalizations were measured as incidence rate ratios.

RESULTS

A total of 791 000 hospitalizations coded as pneumonia were identified; unspecified causes accounted for >85%. Reductions in pneumonia coded as pneumococcal/lobar were statistically significant in all age groups and greatest in children. Significant reductions in all-cause pneumonia were seen only in children aged <2 years (32%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 28%-37%) and 2-4 years (20%; 95% CI, 14%-27%), with no significant changes in other age groups, including adults aged 65-74 (4%; 95% CI, -3% to 10%), 75-84 (2%; 95% CI, -4% to 9%), and ≥85 years (3%; 95% CI, -3% to 10%).

CONCLUSIONS

We could not replicate reductions of 23% in all-cause pneumonia 7-9 years post-PCV7 introduction reported for adults aged ≥85 years in the United States. This could be attributable to vaccine program factors, differing proportions of pneumonia due to pneumococci, or data limitations. More data from countries with differing PCV schedules and from the PCV13 era are needed to inform vaccination strategies for elderly adults.

Long term population impact of seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine with a "3+0″ schedule-How do "2+1″ and "3+1″ schedules compare?

INTRODUCTION

Significant reductions in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) following 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV) are well documented, but population-level data comparing different schedules are sparse. We compared data from long-term stable surveillance in one Australian region (3 primary doses (3+0) schedule) with similar data from England and Wales (2+1 schedule) and the United States (3+1 schedule).

METHODS

Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for all, vaccine type, and non-vaccine type IPD were calculated by age-group, using comparable case definitions and time periods post 7vPCV introduction.

RESULTS

At baseline, the % of IPD due to 7vPCV serotypes (VT) disease in children <5 years was 88% in Greater Sydney (GS), 83% in the United States (US), and 74% in England and Wales (E&W). IRR for VT IPD <5 years in GS was 0.05 (0.02-0.09), for ≥65 years was 0.15 (0.12-0.19) and for all ages 0.12 (0.10-0.13). In the US, IRR for VT IPD was lower in each age group, and for all ages the 95% CI of the IRR (0.06 (0.05-0.07)), did not overlap with GS or E&W (0.14 (0.11-0.18)). In contrast, the IRR for IPD due to any serotype did not differ between sites for any age group or overall.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in direct and indirect reductions in VT IPD with a "3+0″ 7vPCV schedule versus "2+1″ or "3+1″ were small. All 3 countries moved to 13vPCV by 2011; data post 13vPCV will be important to assess IPD impact using more similar baseline incidence and comparison periods.

Australian vaccine preventable disease epidemiological review series: measles 2000-2011

BACKGROUND

Since the introduction of measles vaccine to the vaccination schedule, the burden of measles has substantially fallen in Australia. Despite this, a number of recent measles outbreaks have occurred. The aim of this study was to examine the burden of measles in Australia using notification, hospitalisation and mortality data with the objectives of setting a baseline for comparison prior to the introduction of the combined measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccine.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, the National Hospital Morbidity Database and the National Mortality Database to obtain notification, hospitalisation and death data, respectively from 2000 to 2011. Rates were calculated and compared over time by age group and jurisdiction.

RESULTS

Since 1993, measles notifications have fallen considerably in Australia. However, between 2000 and 2011, measles notification rates and hospitalisation rates fluctuated. Between 2000 and 2011, there were 990 measles notifications in Australia. The average annual notification rate was 0.4 per 100,000 population. Children aged 0-4 years were the most susceptible group, particularly infants less than 1 year of age (average annual rate, 1.6 per 100,000 population). High incidence was also observed in adolescents (average annual rate, 0.7 per 100,000 population) and young adults (average annual rate, 0.8 per 100,000 population). Jurisdictional variation occurred with differing patterns of notifications and hospitalisations.

CONCLUSIONS

Although a marked reduction in measles notifications and hospitalisations has occurred in the past decade, susceptible individuals should be vaccinated to prevent outbreaks and to maintain a low incidence of measles and Australia's elimination status.

Human papillomavirus prevalence to age 60 years among Australian women prevaccination

Background The prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) at the cervix varies with age, peaking following sexual debut and declining thereafter in most populations. In some populations, a second peak is observed. Here we describe the prevalence of HPV at the cervix among Australian women before the commencement of the HPV vaccination program.

METHODS

Women aged 15 to 60 years attending health services for cervical screening between 2005 and 2008 were invited to participate. Liquid based cervical specimens were tested for 37 types of HPV using linear array. The percentage and 95% confidence interval of women with any type of HPV, any of 13 high risk HPV types, and with vaccine-preventable HPV types (types 6, 11, 16 and 18) were estimated in 5-year age bands.

RESULTS

Among 1929 women aged 15-60 years, HPV prevalence peaked at 64% at age 15-20 years, then declined gradually to 12% at age 41-45 years, whereafter it rose to 19% in women 51-55 years then returned to 14% in 56-60 year olds. Prevalence curves were similar for high-risk HPV types and vaccine-targeted HPV types 6, 11, 16 and 18 and when results were restricted to women with only normal cytology.

CONCLUSIONS

The shape of the prevalence curve we observed is similar to those from other Western populations. Variation in prevalence curves is likely due to differences in sexual behaviour between populations and over time, reactivation of HPV during perimenopause, and possibly the presence of cervical screening programs. These data are the first such data from the Oceania region.

Predictors of Pneumococcal Vaccination Uptake in Hospitalized Patients Aged 65 Years and Over Shortly Following the Commencement of a Publicly Funded National Pneumococcal Vaccination Program in Australia

In January 2005, Australia became the first country to introduce a publicly funded pneumococcal vaccination program for persons 65 years and older which is free at point of service, although the vaccine cost had previously been partially subsidized. Hospitalization in this age group is an important indicator of risk of invasive pneumococcal disease but vaccine uptake has been suboptimal. To determine vaccination rates and predictors of vaccination in the elderly hospitalised patients before and after January 2005. We validated vaccination status against general practitioner (GP) records for patients aged > or = 65 years admitted to a large teaching hospital in Sydney between 16th of May 2005 and the 20th of February 2006 and examined predictors of vaccination. Commencement of the new program resulted in a significant increase in vaccination uptake from 39% of inpatients prior to the free program to 73% in the same cohort of inpatients post January 2005. We found that patient recall of vaccination status was not reliable. Self-report of pneumococcal vaccination had a sensitivity of 0.53 and a specificity of 0.55, highlighting that validation of vaccination status is required. Age over 80 years and dementia significantly predicted under-vaccination. This highlights the importance of integrating free vaccine supply and delivery in primary care to achieve high vaccination coverage. However, demented patients and the very elderly remain under-vaccinated, despite being admitted to hospital for active management of acute conditions.

Parental Tdap boosters and infant pertussis: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Although recommended for almost a decade, evidence for field effectiveness of vaccinating close adult contacts of newborn infants against pertussis ("cocooning") is lacking. We evaluated the impact of a government-funded cocoon program during a pertussis epidemic in New South Wales, Australia.

METHODS

We matched all New South Wales laboratory-confirmed pertussis cases aged <4 months with onset between April 1, 2009, to March 30, 2011 to controls from the state birth register by date of birth and area of residence. Parental vaccine receipt was by self-report, with a subset verified. Parents were considered "immunized" if vaccinated ≥4 weeks before case symptom onset. The effectiveness of parental immunization (versus neither vaccinated) was quantified as (1 - odds ratio) × 100%.

RESULTS

Case households had fewer immunized mothers (22% vs 32%) or fathers (20% vs 31%) but were more likely to include additional and older children. After adjustment, when both parents met our definition of immunized, risk of pertussis at<4 months of age was reduced by 51% (95% confidence interval 10% to 73%). Maternal vaccination prepregnancy and an immunized father reduced the risk by 51% (95% confidence interval 0% to 76%).

CONCLUSIONS

Timely parental pertussis boosters provided significant protection. Evidence of protection from maternal vaccination prepregnancy is biologically plausible, and more precise data on the magnitude and duration of this is important for future policy recommendations.

Australian vaccine preventable disease epidemiological review series: pertussis, 2006-2012

Despite pertussis vaccine being available since the 1940s and immunisation programs using combined diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine since the mid-1950s, pertussis has been the most commonly notified vaccine preventable disease in Australia over the past 20 years. Pertussis notification and hospitalisation data have been available nationally since 1993, and provide different perspectives for understanding epidemiological trends. This report follows on from a previous review of Australian pertussis epidemiology from 1995-2005 and summarises routinely collected notification, hospitalisation and mortality data for 2006-2012. During the latter 7-year period, which incorporated epidemics in all jurisdictions, and in which acellular vaccines (as opposed to whole cell vaccines) were used exclusively, the average annual notification rate was more than 2.8 times that of the previous decade. In contrast, hospitalisation and mortality rates remained similar. The pattern of age-specific notification rates changed substantially, with cases aged 15 years or over representing 93% of total cases in 2006, but only 58% by 2012; the steepest increases were seen in children 2-4 and 6-9 years of age. In South Australia, where acellular vaccines were introduced into the primary schedule 2 years earlier than in other jurisdictions except the Northern Territory, a peak in notifications among those aged 5-9 and 10-12 years was observed earlier. Likely contributors to both the overall increase in notifications and changes in age distribution include increased diagnostic testing and more rapid waning of effectiveness following vaccination with acellular compared with whole cell vaccines, exacerbated by cessation of the 18-month dose in the National Immunisation Program from 2003.

Immunisation coverage, 2012

This, the 6th annual immunisation coverage report, documents trends during 2012 for a range of standard measures derived from Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR) data, and National Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination Program Register data. These include coverage at standard age milestones and for individual vaccines included on the National Immunisation Program (NIP) and coverage in adolescents and adults. The proportion of Australian children 'fully vaccinated' at 12, 24 and 60 months of age was 91.7%, 92.5% and 91.2%, respectively. For vaccines available on the NIP but not assessed during 2012 for 'fully vaccinated' status or for eligibility for incentive payments (rotavirus and pneumococcal at 12 months and meningococcal C and varicella at 24 months) coverage varied. Although pneumococcal vaccine had similar coverage at 12 months to other vaccines, coverage was lower for rotavirus at 12 months (83.6%) and varicella at 24 months (84.4%). Although 'fully vaccinated' coverage at 12 months of age was lower among Indigenous children than non-Indigenous children in all jurisdictions, the extent of the difference varied, reaching a 15 percentage point differential in South Australia but only a 0.4 percentage point differential in the Northern Territory. Overall, Indigenous coverage at 24 months of age exceeded that at 12 months of age nationally and for all jurisdictions, but as receipt of varicella vaccine at 18 months is excluded from calculations, this represents delayed immunisation, with some contribution from immunisation incentives. The 'fully vaccinated' coverage estimates for vaccinations due by 60 months of age for Indigenous children exceeded 90% at 91% in 2012. Unlike in 2011, at 60 months of age, there was no dramatic variation in coverage between Indigenous and non-Indigenous children for individual jurisdictions. As previously documented, vaccines recommended for Indigenous children only, hepatitis A and pneumococcal vaccine, had suboptimal coverage at 60.1% and 73.1%, respectively, although there was a considerable improvement in coverage from 2011, 57.7% and 68.2% respectively. On-time receipt (before 49 months of age) of vaccines by Indigenous children at the 60-month milestone age improved substantially between 2011 (19%) and 2012 (38%) but the disparity in on-time vaccination between Indigenous and non-Indigenous children worsened at the 60-month age milestone from 2011 (from 1.8 to 5.4 percentage points) and remained the same for the 12 and 24-month age milestones. By late 2012, the percentage of children who received the 1st dose of DTPa vaccine dose at less than 8 weeks of age was greater than 50% in all but 1 jurisdiction and greater than 70% for New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania. Further, by late 2012, the percentage of children who received the 4th dose of DTPa vaccine dose at less than 4 years of age was greater than 30% in 3 jurisdictions. The percentage of children whose parents officially objected to vaccination in Australia was 1.7% and this figure varied by jurisdiction. However, there is a further 2.1% of children whose parents don't officially object but whose children have no vaccines recorded on the ACIR. Coverage data for the 3rd dose of HPV from the national HPV register in the school catch up program was similar to 2011 at 71% but was substantially lower for the catch up program for females outside school (44%-69%), although this was an improvement from 2011.

Intraspecific variability modulates interspecific variability in animal organismal stoichiometry

Interspecific differences in organismal stoichiometry (OS) have been documented in a wide range of animal taxa and are of significant interest for understanding evolutionary patterns in OS. In contrast, intraspecific variation in animal OS has generally been treated as analytical noise or random variation, even though available data suggest intraspecific variability in OS is widespread. Here, we assess how intraspecific variation in OS affects inferences about interspecific OS differences using two co-occurring Neotropical fishes: Poecilia reticulata and Rivulus hartii. A wide range of OS has been observed within both species and has been attributed to environmental differences among stream systems. We assess the contributions of species identity, stream system, and the interactions between stream and species to variability in N:P, C:P, and C:N. Because predation pressure can impact the foraging ecology and life-history traits of fishes, we compare predictors of OS between communities that include predators, and communities where predators are absent. We find that species identity is the strongest predictor of N:P, while stream or the interaction of stream and species contribute more to the overall variation in C:P and C:N. Interspecific differences in N:P, C:P, and C:N are therefore not consistent among streams. The relative contribution of stream or species to OS qualitatively changes between the two predation communities, but these differences do not have appreciable effects in interspecific patterns. We conclude that although species identity is a significant predictor of OS, intraspecific OS is sometimes sufficient to overwhelm or obfuscate interspecific differences in OS.

A randomized clinical trial of the immunogenicity of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine compared to 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine in frail, hospitalized elderly

BACKGROUND

Elderly people do not mount strong immune responses to vaccines. We compared 23-valent capsular polysaccharide (23vPPV) alone versus 7-valent conjugate (PCV7) vaccine followed by 23vPPV 6 months later in hospitalized elderly.

METHODS

Participants were randomized to receive 23vPPV or PCV7-23vPPV. Antibodies against serotypes 3, 4, 6A, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19A, 19F, 23F were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent (ELISA) and opsonophagocytic (OPA) assays at baseline, 6 months and 12 months.

RESULTS

Of 312 recruited, between 40% and 72% of subjects had undetectable OPA titres at baseline. After one dose, PCV7 recipients had significantly higher responses to serotypes 9V (both assays) and 23F (OPA only), and 23vPPV recipients had significantly higher responses to serotype 3 (ELISA), 19F and 19A (OPA only). In subjects with undetectable OPA titres at baseline, a proportionately greater rise in OPA titre (P<0.01) was seen for all serotypes after both vaccines. The GMT ratio of OPA was significantly higher at 12 months in the PCV7-23vPPV group for serotypes 6A, 9V, 18C and 23F. OPA titre levels for these serotypes increased moderately after 6 months, whereas immunity waned in the 23vPPV only arm.

CONCLUSION

We did not show overwhelming benefit of one vaccine over the other. Low baseline immunity does not preclude a robust immune response, reiterating the importance of vaccinating the frail elderly. A schedule of PCV7-23vPPV prevents waning of antibody, suggesting that both vaccines could be useful in the elderly. Follow up studies are needed to determine persistence of immunity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The Australian Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12607000387426.

Impact of pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine in people aged 65 years or older

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact and effectiveness of the 23-valent polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine (23vPPV) in ≥ 65-year-old Australians in the context of concurrent 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV) use in infants.

DESIGN, PATIENTS AND SETTING

Ecological analysis of trends in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) notification rates and vaccine effectiveness estimation using the screening method, using data on Australians aged ≥ 65 years (23vPPV funded) and 50-64 years (23vPPV not funded).

INTERVENTION

National 23vPPV program for people aged ≥ 65 years and national 7vPCV program for infants, both commencing in 2005.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

IPD incidence rate ratios, 2002-2004 to 2010-2011, and 23vPPV effectiveness against 23vPPV-type IPD.

RESULTS

The proportion of people aged ≥ 65 years who were vaccinated within the previous 5 years in jurisdictions excluding Victoria ranged from 41% to 64% over the study period, with no clear trend over time. Incidence rate ratios in the ≥ 65-year age group were 0.11 (95% CI, 0.09-0.14) for 7vPCV serotypes, 1.64 (95% CI, 1.41-1.91) for 23vPPV-non-7vPCV serotypes and 2.07 (95% CI, 1.67-2.57) for non-23vPPV serotypes. The incidence rate ratio for total IPD was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.59-0.71) for people aged ≥ 65 years, and 0.80 (0.71-0.90) for people aged 50-64 years. The estimate of 23vPPV effectiveness was 61.1% (95% CI, 55.1%-66.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The greater reduction in IPD among ≥ 65-year-olds compared with 50-64-year-olds did not reach statistical significance. However, vaccine effectiveness was significant. Greater reductions in IPD in ≥ 65-year-olds would be expected from the indirect effects of using 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in infants (introduced for Australian infants in 2011) and an increase in 23vPPV coverage.

Duration of protection after first dose of acellular pertussis vaccine in infants

OBJECTIVE

Data on the effectiveness of the diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine in the first 4 years of life are sparse. We evaluated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 1 and 2 doses of DTaP before 6 months of age and of 3 doses from 6 months of age in Australia, where, since 2003, a fourth dose is not given until 4 years.

METHODS

We matched reported pertussis cases aged 2 to 47 months between January 2005 and December 2009 to controls from a population-based immunization register by date of birth and region of residence. VE by number of doses and age group was calculated as (1 - odds ratio) × 100%.

RESULTS

VE against hospitalization increased from 55.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.7%-65.1%) for 1 dose before 4 months of age to 83.0% (95% CI, 70.2%-90.3%) for 2 doses before 6 months. The VE of 3 doses of DTaP against all reported pertussis was 83.5% (95% CI, 79.1%-87.8%) between 6 and 11 months, declining to 70.7% (95% CI, 64.5%-75.8%) between 2 and 3 years of age and 59.2% (95% CI, 51.0%-66.0%) between 3 and 4 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

DTaP provided good protection against pertussis in the first year of life from the first dose. Without a booster dose, the effectiveness of 3 doses waned more rapidly from 2 to 4 years of age than previously documented for children >6 years of age who had received 5 doses.

When are fish sources vs. sinks of nutrients in lake ecosystems?

Animals can be important in nutrient cycling through a variety of direct and indirect pathways. A high biomass of animals often represents a large pool of nutrients, leading some ecologists to argue that animal assemblages can represent nutrient sinks within ecosystems. The role of animals as sources vs. sinks of nutrients has been debated particularly extensively for freshwater fishes. We argue that a large pool size does not equate to a nutrient sink; rather, animals can be nutrient sinks when their biomass increases, when emigration rates are high, and/or when nutrients in animal carcasses are not remineralized. To further explore these ideas, we use a simple model to evaluate the conditions under which fish are phosphorus (P) sources or sinks at the ecosystem (lake) level, and at the habitat level (benthic and water column habitats). Our simulations suggest that, under most conditions, fish are sinks for benthic P but are net P sources to the water column. However, P source and sink strengths depend on fish feeding habits (proportion of P consumed from the benthos and water column), migration patterns, and especially the fate of carcass P. Of particular importance is the rate at which carcasses are mineralized and the relative importance of benthic vs. pelagic primary producers in taking up mineralized P (and excreted P). Higher proportional uptake of P by benthic primary producers increases the likelihood that fish are sinks for water column P. Carcass bones and scales are relatively recalcitrant and can represent a P sink even if fish biomass does not change over time. Thus, there is a need for better documentation of the fraction of carcass P that is remineralized, and the fate of this P, under natural conditions. We urge a more holistic perspective regarding the role of animals in nutrient cycling, with a focus on quantifying the rates at which animals consume, store, release, and transport nutrients under various conditions.