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Tsai J, Byrne T, Hill LL, Flatley B, Harelik N, Deal M. Identifying Graduation Rates and Practices in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development-Veterans Affairs Supportive Housing Program. Community Ment Health J 2022; 59:808-811. [PMID: 36417137 DOI: 10.1007/s10597-022-01057-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2022] [Revised: 11/11/2022] [Accepted: 11/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Graduation from permanent supported housing program (PSH) is an important part of individuals' recovery and rehabilitation, yet little research has examined this process. We examined graduation rates, practices and policies in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs-Housing and Urban Development Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) program, the largest PSH program in the United States. We used HUD-VASH administrative data from Fiscal Years 2016-2020 to summarize graduation rates from the program. Using a template analysis approach to open-ended online surveys from 65 HUD-VASH program managers, we identified key themes related to graduation practices. Graduations accounted for 21% of all HUD-VASH exits across all years. Graduation practices and policies varied across HUD-VASH programs, and staff expressed interest in having additional data to support graduation decisions. There may be value in developing standards for graduation criteria that is shared with clients and providers in supported housing programs in order to titrate care appropriately and support client independence.
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Hyde J, Byrne T, Petrakis BA, Yakovchenko V, Kim B, Fincke G, Bolton R, Visher C, Blue-Howells J, Drainoni ML, McInnes DK. Enhancing community integration after incarceration: findings from a prospective study of an intensive peer support intervention for veterans with an historical comparison group. HEALTH & JUSTICE 2022; 10:33. [PMID: 36348203 PMCID: PMC9644600 DOI: 10.1186/s40352-022-00195-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The transition to the community after incarceration presents challenges for returning citizens, including the immediate need to secure housing, employment, and income. Additionally, health care is essential for this population due to high rates of chronic physical health and mental health problems and substance use disorders. There is growing recognition of the need for interventions that support returning citizens as they navigate community reintegration while simultaneously tending to physical and behavioral health needs. We developed and pilot tested a peer support intervention designed to provide social, emotional, and logistic support and promote linkage and engagement in healthcare for returning citizens. We tested the intervention with US military veterans in Massachusetts who were being released from prison and jail. Outcomes related to linkage to and engagement in healthcare were evaluated using an historical comparison group. Engagement in peer support, housing status, and reincarceration rates were monitored for the intervention group. RESULTS There were 43 veterans in the intervention group, and 36 in the historical comparison group. For linkage to primary care within 90 days of release, there were no statistically significant differences between the intervention and comparison groups (58% versus 67%). Intervention participants were significantly more likely to receive substance use treatment than the comparison group (86% versus 19%, p < .0001) and the mean monthly substance use visits was greater in the intervention group (0.96 versus 0.34, p < .007). Engagement in mental health services was greater for the intervention group than the comparison group (93% versus 64%, p < .003). There were no significant differences between groups for emergency department use and hospitalization. At the end of the study period, the majority of intervention participants who had been released for over a year were living in permanent housing (84%). Recidivism among the was low, with 7% re-arrested during the study period. CONCLUSIONS Augmenting reentry support through intensive peer support appears to have substantial benefits for veterans in terms of engaging them in health care and contributing to their longer-term stability, including housing and recidivism. Flexible reentry support such as this intervention may be well suited to meet the widely varying needs of returning citizens.
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Flike K, Hayman LL, Byrne T, Song Q, Aronowitz T. The impact of patient-centred care on the relationship between access to care and subjective health outcomes amongst people experiencing homelessness: A mediation analysis. HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE IN THE COMMUNITY 2022; 30:e5755-e5764. [PMID: 36093584 DOI: 10.1111/hsc.14007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Revised: 08/10/2022] [Accepted: 08/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
People experiencing homelessness (PEH) have stated that impersonal care and feelings of discrimination are barriers to accessing healthcare which is associated with poor health outcomes amongst PEH. This study examined whether patient-centred care (PCC) mediates the relationship between access to care and subjective health outcomes. Using the 2014-15 Healthcare Center Patient Survey, we identified 1873 homeless and vulnerably housed adults. Items related to the delay or inability to receive primary or mental healthcare, PCC provided by healthcare providers, general health status, and the Kessler-6 psychological distress scale were selected. Ordinary least squares analyses were used to perform mediation analysis. We found that both access to primary care and access to mental healthcare were positively associated with physical health status (β = 0.492, p < 0.001; β = 0.311, p < 0.001) and negatively associated with psychological distress (β = -2.53, p < 0.001; β = -1.85, p < 0.001). PCC partially mediated all associations, but the mediation was stronger in the relationships between access to primary care and health outcomes (ab = 0.25, 95% CI [0.002, 0.052]; ab = -0.21, 95% CI [-0.37, -0.07]) compared to mental healthcare (ab = 0.02, 95% CI [0.01, 0.04]; ab = -0.14, 95% CI [-0.25, -0.06]). The results of this study indicated access to primary and mental healthcare is important in the patient-centred health outcomes of PEH. Additionally, the partial mediation of PCC in these relationships indicated that participants' perception of collaborative, trustworthy, respectful care from healthcare providers impacted the relationship between access to healthcare and health outcomes.
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Cusack M, Montgomery AE, Harris T, Roncarati J, Brecht T, Antonellis C, Byrne T, Tsai J, True G. Providers' reflections on infrastructure and improvements to promote access to care for Veterans experiencing housing instability in rural areas of the United States: A qualitative study. HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE IN THE COMMUNITY 2022; 30:e6356-e6365. [PMID: 36250724 DOI: 10.1111/hsc.14077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Revised: 08/15/2022] [Accepted: 10/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Veterans in rural areas of the United States face barriers to accessing healthcare and other services, which are intensified for those experiencing housing instability. Recent legislative acts have the potential to address obstacles faced by rural patients in the U.S. This study explores how infrastructure-including features related to the physical and digital environment-impacts the ability of rural Veterans experiencing housing instability to access healthcare and related services from the perspective of homeless service providers within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews (n = 22) with providers in high/low performing and/or resourced communities across the U.S. in May and June 2021 and analysed transcripts using template analysis. Themes described by providers highlight how infrastructure limitations in rural areas can exacerbate health disparities for Veterans experiencing housing instability, the impact of COVID-19 on service access, and recommendations to enhance service delivery. Providers suggested that VHA reconfigure where and how staff work, identify additional resources for transportation and/or alternative transportation models, and increase Veterans' access to technology and broadband Internet. Federal infrastructure investments should address challenges faced by Veterans experiencing housing instability in rural areas and the concerns of providers connecting them with care.
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Nelson RE, Montgomery AE, Suo Y, Cook J, Pettey W, Evans W, Greene T, Gelberg L, Kertesz S, Tsai J, Byrne T. The Impact of Temporary Housing Assistance Expenditures on Subcategories of Health Care Cost for U.S. Veterans Facing Housing Instability. J Health Care Poor Underserved 2022; 33:1821-1843. [PMID: 36341665 DOI: 10.1353/hpu.2022.0140] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
We sought to estimate the impact of temporary financial assistance (TFA) for housing-related expenses from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs on costs for a variety of health care services. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Veterans who entered the Supportive Services for Veteran Families (SSVF) program between 10/2015 and 9/2018. We assessed the effect of TFA on health care costs using a multivariable difference-in-difference approach. Outcomes were direct medical costs of health care encounters (i.e., emergency department, outpatient mental health, inpatient mental health, outpatient substance use disorder treatment, and residential behavioral health) in the VA system. Temporary financial assistance was associated with a decrease in ED (-$11, p<.003), outpatient mental health (-$28, p<.001), outpatient substance use disorder treatment (-$25, p<.001), inpatient mental health (-$258, p<.001), and residential behavioral health (-$181, p<.001) costs per quarter for Veterans in the rapid re-housing component of SSVF. These results can inform policy debates regarding proper solutions to housing instability.
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Moloney K, Byrne T, Mathews S, Foran M, Conroy B, Molamphy A, Murphy N, Dillon A, Doyle K, Cunningham C, Romero-Ortuno R. 82 THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE ACTIVITY OF A RAPID-ACCESS GERIATRIC DAY HOSPITAL SERVICE. Age Ageing 2022. [PMCID: PMC9620317 DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afac218.067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In the 1970s, Jack Flanagan developed the first Geriatric Day Hospital (GDH) in Ireland. Since, the GDH model of care has evolved to accommodate for the growing demands of our ageing population. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the operational scope of our GDH was extended to allow for the rapid medical and multidisciplinary assessment and follow-up of older patients. During the pandemic, the GDH did not suspend operations and remained open as a COVID-negative ambulatory pathway. We evaluated the activity of this GDH service. Methods Retrospective Service Evaluation Approval was granted by our Research & Innovation Office (Reference: 7419). Pseudonymised data corresponding to all GDH attendances between January 2017 and December 2021 were retrieved from the hospital electronic records. Yearly trends in proportions were tested with the Chi-square for trend statistic. Trends in monthly attendances were assessed via Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts with three-sigma limits. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Results There were 27,278 attendances of patients aged 65 and over to the GDH over the 5-year period (6,362, 5,978, 6,115, 4,306, and 4,517, respectively). Mean age was 82 every year. Of the 7,813 new episodes, yearly proportions referred directly by primary care teams were 10.4%, 29.5%, 38.6%, 24.5%, and 16.3% (p<0.001). SPC charts showed that Apr-May 2020 and Jan-Feb 2021 had significantly lower numbers of review attendances (50-59 and 146-142, respectively, average 324 p/m). However, new appointments did not significantly decline (average 130 p/m). Of the 7,813 new episodes, 2,595 (33.2%) were seen by Physiotherapy, and 1,860 (23.8%) by Occupational Therapy. Conclusion Our GDH saw a sustained number of new attendances and demonstrated increased community availability during the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis, especially during the first wave of the pandemic when hospital access was most affected. A rapid access GDH model can facilitate integrated care at times of crisis to promote ageing in place.
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Kershaw K, Martelly L, Stevens C, McInnes DK, Silverman A, Byrne T, Aycinena D, Sabin LL, Garvin LA, Vimalananda VG, Hass R. Text messaging to increase patient engagement in a large health care for the homeless clinic: Results of a randomized pilot study. Digit Health 2022; 8:20552076221129729. [PMID: 36238754 PMCID: PMC9551340 DOI: 10.1177/20552076221129729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2022] [Accepted: 09/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives To assess the feasibility and effectiveness of text messaging to increase
outpatient care engagement and medication adherence in an urban homeless
population in Boston. Methods Between July 2017 and April 2018, 62 patients from a clinic serving a
homeless population were sent automated text messages for four months.
Messages were either appointment reminders and medication adherence
suggestions (intervention group) or general health promotion messages
(control group). Medical records were reviewed to evaluate appointment
keeping, emergency room (ER) use, and hospitalizations. Pre- and
post-surveys were administered to measure self-reported medication
adherence. Results No significant differences were found in inpatient or outpatient care between
the intervention and control groups, though differences in no-show rates and
medication adherence approached significance. Appointment no-show rates were
21.0% vs. 30.6% (p = 0.08) for intervention and control,
respectively, and rates of completed appointments were 65.8% vs. 56.7%
(p = 0.12). Mean ER visits were 3.86 vs 2.33
(p = 0.16) for intervention and control groups, and
mean inpatient admissions were 0.6 versus 1.24 (p = 0.42).
Self-reported medication adherence increased from 8.27 to 9.84 in
intervention participants, compared to an increase from 8.27 to 8.68 in
control participants (p = 0.07), on a 1–11 scale. Conclusions Text messaging showed the potential to improve patient engagement in care and
medication adherence in an urban homeless population (findings approaching
but not achieving statistical significance). Work is needed to enhance the
effectiveness of text-messaging interventions, which may involve increasing
ease of use for mobile phones and texting apps, and addressing high rates of
phone theft and loss.
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McGarry A, Ni Nualláin A, Byrne T, O'Brien J, Rice C, Breathnach O, Grogan W, McAleer C, McQuillan R, McNally, Cowie E. 1277P The role of palliative care in patients with glioblastoma multiforme: A single centre review. Ann Oncol 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.annonc.2022.07.1410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022] Open
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Aldridge RW, Yavlinsky A, Nguyen V, Eyre MT, Shrotri M, Navaratnam AMD, Beale S, Braithwaite I, Byrne T, Kovar J, Fragaszy E, Fong WLE, Geismar C, Patel P, Rodger A, Johnson AM, Hayward A. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and breakthrough infections in the Virus Watch cohort. Nat Commun 2022; 13:4869. [PMID: 35982056 PMCID: PMC9387883 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32265-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2021] [Accepted: 07/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
A range of studies globally demonstrate that the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines wane over time, but the total effect of anti-S antibody levels on risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and whether this varies by vaccine type is not well understood. Here we show that anti-S levels peak three to four weeks following the second dose of vaccine and the geometric mean of the samples is nine fold higher for BNT162b2 than ChAdOx1. Increasing anti-S levels are associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Hazard Ratio 0.85; 95%CIs: 0.79-0.92). We do not find evidence that this antibody relationship with risk of infection varies by second dose vaccine type (BNT162b2 vs. ChAdOx1). In keeping with our anti-S antibody data, we find that people vaccinated with ChAdOx1 had 1.64 times the odds (95% confidence interval 1.45-1.85) of a breakthrough infection compared to BNT162b2. We anticipate our findings to be useful in the estimation of the protective effect of anti-S levels on risk of infection due to Delta. Our findings provide evidence about the relationship between antibody levels and protection for different vaccines and will support decisions on optimising the timing of booster vaccinations and identifying individuals who should be prioritised for booster vaccination, including those who are older, clinically extremely vulnerable, or received ChAdOx1 as their primary course. Our finding that risk of infection by anti-S level does not interact with vaccine type, but that individuals vaccinated with ChAdOx1 were at higher risk of infection, provides additional support for the use of using anti-S levels for estimating vaccine efficacy.
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Hoskins S, Beale S, Nguyen V, Fragaszy E, Navaratnam AM, Smith C, French C, Kovar J, Byrne T, Fong WLE, Geismar C, Patel P, Yavlinksy A, Johnson AM, Aldridge RW, Hayward A. Settings for non-household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the second lockdown in England and Wales - analysis of the Virus Watch household community cohort study. Wellcome Open Res 2022; 7:199. [PMID: 36874571 PMCID: PMC9975411 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17981.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: "Lockdowns" to control serious respiratory virus pandemics were widely used during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there is limited information to understand the settings in which most transmission occurs during lockdowns, to support refinement of similar policies for future pandemics. Methods: Among Virus Watch household cohort participants we identified those infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outside the household. Using survey activity data, we undertook multivariable logistic regressions assessing the contribution of activities on non-household infection risk. We calculated adjusted population attributable fractions (APAF) to estimate which activity accounted for the greatest proportion of non-household infections during the pandemic's second wave. Results: Among 10,858 adults, 18% of cases were likely due to household transmission. Among 10,475 participants (household-acquired cases excluded), including 874 non-household-acquired infections, infection was associated with: leaving home for work or education (AOR 1.20 (1.02 - 1.42), APAF 6.9%); public transport (more than once per week AOR 1.82 (1.49 - 2.23), public transport APAF 12.42%); and shopping (more than once per week AOR 1.69 (1.29 - 2.21), shopping APAF 34.56%). Other non-household activities were rare and not significantly associated with infection. Conclusions: During lockdown, going to work and using public or shared transport independently increased infection risk, however only a minority did these activities. Most participants visited shops, accounting for one-third of non-household transmission. Transmission in restricted hospitality and leisure settings was minimal suggesting these restrictions were effective. If future respiratory infection pandemics emerge these findings highlight the value of working from home, using forms of transport that minimise exposure to others, minimising exposure to shops and restricting non-essential activities.
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Byrne T, Hoang M, Montgomery AE, Johns E, Shinn M, Mijanovich T, Culhane D, Doran KM. Performance of 2 Single-Item Screening Questions to Identify Future Homelessness Among Emergency Department Patients. JAMA Netw Open 2022; 5:e2226691. [PMID: 35969399 PMCID: PMC9379745 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.26691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Despite increasing interest in assessing patient social needs in health care settings, there has been little research examining the performance of housing-related screening questions. OBJECTIVE To examine the performance of 2 single-item screening questions assessing emergency department (ED) patients' self-perceived risk of future homelessness. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This prospective cohort study was conducted among a randomly selected sample of adult ED patients from 2016 to 2017 in a public hospital ED in New York City. Data were analyzed from September 2019 through October 2021. EXPOSURES Responses on patient surveys conducted at the baseline ED visit for 2 single-item screening questions on self-perceived risk for future housing instability and homelessness were collected. One question asked patients if they were worried about having stable housing in the next 2 months, and the other question asked them to rate the likelihood that they would enter a homeless shelter in the next 6 months. OUTCOMES Homeless shelter entry 2, 6, and 12 months after an ED visit, assessed using shelter administrative data in the study city, which was linked with participant baseline survey responses. RESULTS There were 1919 study participants (976 [51.0%] men and 931 [48.6%] women among 1915 individuals with gender data; 700 individuals aged 31-50 years [36.5%] among 1918 individuals with age data; 1126 Hispanic or Latinx individuals [59.0%], 368 non-Hispanic Black individuals [19.3%], and 225 non-Hispanic White individuals [11.8%] among 1908 individuals with race and ethnicity data). Within 2, 6, and 12 months of the ED visit, 45 patients (2.3%), 66 patients (3.4%), and 95 patients (5.0%) had entered shelter, respectively. For both single-item screening questions, participants who answered affirmatively had significantly higher likelihood of future shelter entry at each time point examined (eg, at 2 months: 31 participants responding yes [6.5%] vs 14 participants responding no [1.0%] to the question concerning being worried about having stable housing in the next 2 months). Sensitivity of the screening questions ranged from 0.27 to 0.69, specificity from 0.76 to 0.97, positive predictive value from 0.07 to 0.27, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.62 to 0.72. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study found that 2 single-item screening questions assessing ED patient self-perceived risk of future housing instability and homelessness had adequate to good performance in identifying risk for future shelter entry. Such single-item screening questions should be further tested before broad adoption.
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Yavlinsky A, Beale S, Nguyen V, Shrotri M, Byrne T, Geismar C, Fragaszy E, Hoskins S, Fong WLE, Navaratnam AMD, Braithwaite I, Patel P, Kovar J, Hayward A, Aldridge RW. Anti-spike antibody trajectories in individuals previously immunised with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 following a BNT162b2 booster dose. Wellcome Open Res 2022. [DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17914.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The two most common SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the UK, BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), employ different immunogenic mechanisms. Compared to BNT162b2, two-dose immunisation with ChAdOx1 induces substantially lower peak anti-spike antibody (anti-S) levels and is associated with a higher risk of breakthrough infections. To provide preliminary indication of how a third booster BNT162b2 dose impacts anti-S levels, we performed a cross-sectional analysis using capillary blood samples from vaccinated adults participating in Virus Watch, a prospective community cohort study in England and Wales. Methods: Blood samples were analysed using Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 S immunoassay. We analysed anti-S levels by week since the third dose for vaccines administered on or after 1 September 2021 and stratified the results by second-dose vaccine type (ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2), age, sex and clinical vulnerability. Results: Anti-S levels peaked at two weeks post-booster for BNT162b2 (22,185 U/mL; 95%CI: 21,406-22,990) and ChAdOx1 second-dose recipients (19,203 U/mL; 95%CI: 18,094-20,377). These were higher than the corresponding peak antibody levels post-second dose for BNT162b2 (12,386 U/mL; 95%CI: 9,801-15,653, week 2) and ChAdOx1 (1,192 U/mL; 95%CI: 818-1735, week 3). No differences emerged by second dose vaccine type, age, sex or clinical vulnerability. Anti-S levels declined post-booster for BNT162b2 (half-life=44 days) and ChAdOx1 second dose recipients (half-life=40 days). These rates of decline were steeper than those post-second dose for BNT162b2 (half-life=54 days) and ChAdOx1 (half-life=80 days). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that peak anti-S levels are higher post-booster than post-second dose, but levels are projected to be similar after six months for BNT162b2 recipients. Higher peak anti-S levels post-booster may partially explain the increased effectiveness of booster vaccination compared to two-dose vaccination against symptomatic infection with the Omicron variant. Faster waning trajectories post-third dose may have implications for the timing of future booster campaigns or four-dose vaccination regimens for the clinically vulnerable.
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Rubenstein E, Bock E, Brochu P, Byrne T. Quantifying the intersection of disability and homelessness in Massachusetts public schools in 2018-2019. Child Care Health Dev 2022; 48:569-577. [PMID: 35018667 DOI: 10.1111/cch.12961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Revised: 11/08/2021] [Accepted: 01/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Homelessness has a major impact on the educational and health trajectories of children. Youth with disabilities may be especially vulnerable to experiencing homelessness, but little epidemiological work has been done to characterize dual disparity. Our goal was to describe the relationship between homelessness and disability among students (age 3-21) receiving public education in Massachusetts in 2018-2019. We evaluated the proportion of students with and without disabilities experiencing homelessness by county and school district. METHODS We used publicly available data from the United States and Massachusetts Department's of Education. These data used the McKinney Vento Homelessness Assistance Act definition of homelessness which is a lack of fixed, adequate, and regular housing, and disability was determined by the presence of an individualized education program or individualized family service plan. We calculated percentages of students with and without disabilities experiencing homelessness at the state, county, and district level and calculated and mapped risk of homelessness comparing students and without disability. We also determined the occurrence of disability among those experiencing homelessness. RESULTS In Massachusetts public schools, 3.5% of students with disabilities experienced homelessness compared with 2.4% of students without disabilities (relative risk 1.50, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.53). A greater proportion of students with disabilities experienced homelessness compared with students without disabilities in all counties. In sum, 24.8% of students experiencing homelessness had a reported disability. CONCLUSIONS In Massachusetts public schools, a greater proportion of students with disabilities experience homelessness compared with students without disabilities, and disability is common among students experiencing homelessness. We hypothesize potential mechanisms, such as the financial cost of disability, that may lead to this finding. Findings support the need for additional funding and interventions for school districts and communities to better serve vulnerable students with disabilities experiencing homelessness.
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Blonigen DM, Cucciare MA, Byrne T, Shaffer PM, Giordano B, Smith JS, Timko C, Rosenthal J, Smelson D. A randomized controlled trial of moral reconation therapy to reduce risk for criminal recidivism among justice-involved adults in mental health residential treatment. J Consult Clin Psychol 2022; 90:413-426. [PMID: 35404638 PMCID: PMC9426716 DOI: 10.1037/ccp0000721] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Moral reconation therapy (MRT) is a cognitive-behavioral intervention to reduce risk for criminal recidivism. Despite being implemented widely in correctional settings, there are no randomized controlled trials of MRT, and its effectiveness for reducing recidivism among justice-involved adults in noncorrectional settings is unknown. METHOD In a pragmatic trial, 341 justice-involved patients (95.3% male; 57.8% White/non-Hispanic) admitted to one of three mental health residential treatment programs were randomly assigned to usual care (UC) or UC plus two MRT groups per week for 12 weeks. Follow-ups were conducted at 6- and 12-month postbaseline (71.3% and 74.8% retention, respectively). Primary outcomes were criminal thinking and criminal associates. Secondary outcomes were legal problem severity, days incarcerated in the past 30, rearrested/charged (per official records), substance use, and employment and family/social problems. The study design, analysis, and outcomes were preregistered (ClinicalTrials.gov; ID: NCT02524171). RESULTS Patients in both conditions improved over time on most outcomes. In intent-to-treat analyses, the rate of change in outcomes over time did not differ by condition, nor did the prevalence of being rearrested and charged within 1 year of baseline (UC = 20.2%, MRT = 24.9%; OR = 1.14; 95% CI [0.67, 1.94], p = .63). MRT engagement was low; 37% of those randomized to MRT received a minimum dose-that is, completed at least Step 3. In per-protocol analyses, this subgroup, relative to UC, improved more on criminal associates, days incarcerated, legal problem severity, and alcohol use severity. CONCLUSIONS In this study, MRT was not more effective than UC at reducing recidivism risk for patients in mental health residential treatment. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).
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Beale S, Hoskins S, Byrne T, Fong WLE, Fragaszy E, Geismar C, Kovar J, Navaratnam AM, Nguyen V, Patel P, Yavlinsky A, Johnson AM, Van Tongeren M, Aldridge RW, Hayward A. Workplace contact patterns in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: Analysis of the Virus Watch prospective cohort study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2022; 16:100352. [PMID: 35475035 PMCID: PMC9023315 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Background Workplaces are an important potential source of SARS-CoV-2 exposure; however, investigation into workplace contact patterns is lacking. This study aimed to investigate how workplace attendance and features of contact varied between occupations across the COVID-19 pandemic in England. Methods Data were obtained from electronic contact diaries (November 2020-November 2021) submitted by employed/self-employed prospective cohort study participants (n=4,616). We used mixed models to investigate the effects of occupation and time for: workplace attendance, number of people sharing workspace, time spent sharing workspace, number of close contacts, and usage of face coverings. Findings Workplace attendance and contact patterns varied across occupations and time. The predicted probability of intense space sharing during the day was highest for healthcare (78% [95% CI: 75-81%]) and education workers (64% [59%-69%]), who also had the highest probabilities for larger numbers of close contacts (36% [32%-40%] and 38% [33%-43%] respectively). Education workers also demonstrated relatively low predicted probability (51% [44%-57%]) of wearing a face covering during close contact. Across all occupational groups, workspace sharing and close contact increased and usage of face coverings decreased during phases of less stringent restrictions. Interpretation Major variations in workplace contact patterns and mask use likely contribute to differential COVID-19 risk. Patterns of variation by occupation and restriction phase may inform interventions for future waves of COVID-19 or other respiratory epidemics. Across occupations, increasing workplace contact and reduced face covering usage is concerning given ongoing high levels of community transmission and emergence of variants. Funding Medical Research Council; HM Government; Wellcome Trust.
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Beale S, Patel P, Rodger A, Braithwaite I, Byrne T, Fong WLE, Fragaszy E, Geismar C, Kovar J, Navaratnam A, Nguyen V, Shrotri M, Aryee A, Aldridge R, Hayward A. Occupation, work-related contact and SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid serological status: findings from the Virus Watch prospective cohort study. Occup Environ Med 2022; 79:oemed-2021-107920. [PMID: 35450951 PMCID: PMC9072780 DOI: 10.1136/oemed-2021-107920] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 03/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies across occupations; however, investigation into factors underlying differential risk is limited. We aimed to estimate the total effect of occupation on SARS-CoV-2 serological status, whether this is mediated by workplace close contact, and how exposure to poorly ventilated workplaces varied across occupations. METHODS We used data from a subcohort (n=3775) of adults in the UK-based Virus Watch cohort study who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid antibodies (indicating natural infection). We used logistic decomposition to investigate the relationship between occupation, contact and seropositivity, and logistic regression to investigate exposure to poorly ventilated workplaces. RESULTS Seropositivity was 17.1% among workers with daily close contact vs 10.0% for those with no work-related close contact. Compared with other professional occupations, healthcare, indoor trade/process/plant, leisure/personal service, and transport/mobile machine workers had elevated adjusted total odds of seropositivity (1.80 (1.03 to 3.14) - 2.46 (1.82 to 3.33)). Work-related contact accounted for a variable part of increased odds across occupations (1.04 (1.01 to 1.08) - 1.23 (1.09 to 1.40)). Occupations with raised odds of infection after accounting for work-related contact also had greater exposure to poorly ventilated workplaces. CONCLUSIONS Work-related close contact appears to contribute to occupational variation in seropositivity. Reducing contact in workplaces is an important COVID-19 control measure.
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McInnes DK, Troszak LK, Fincke BG, Shwartz M, Midboe AM, Gifford AL, Dunlap S, Byrne T. Is the Availability of Direct-Acting Antivirals Associated with Increased Access to Hepatitis C Treatment for Homeless and Unstably Housed Veterans? J Gen Intern Med 2022; 37:1038-1044. [PMID: 34173193 PMCID: PMC8971232 DOI: 10.1007/s11606-021-06933-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2021] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment has experienced a rapid transformation in the USA. New direct-acting antiviral (DAA) medications make treatment easier, less toxic, and more successful (90% or greater viral cure) than prior, interferon-based HCV medications. We sought to determine whether DAAs may have improved access to HCV treatment for hard-to-reach populations such as the homeless. METHODS In a retrospective study of VA electronic medical record data, a cohort was created of 63,586 veterans with a positive HCV RNA or genotype test taken at any point from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2016. Patient data were examined for up to 5 years using a discrete time survival model to assess the relationship between their housing status and receipt of HCV medications in 6-month time periods in both the interferon and DAA eras. RESULTS In the interferon era, the probability of HCV treatment in a given 6-month window among housed veterans, at 6.2% (95% CI: 5.3-7.1%) was significantly higher than among veterans who were homeless or unstably housed; for example, among currently homeless veterans, the probability of treatment initiation, in a given 6-month window, was 2.6% (95% CI: 1.9-3.3%). With the arrival of DAAs, each housing category had an increased probability of treatment initiation. For housed veterans, the probability was 8.6% (95% CI: 8.3-8.9%) while for currently homeless veterans, it was 6.3% (95% CI: 5.7-6.9%). CONCLUSIONS We found a clear indication that the likelihood of treatment initiation was greater for all veterans in the DAA era as compared to the interferon era. However, disparities in treatment initiation rates between housed and homeless veterans that were observed in the interferon era persisted in the DAA era.
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Byrne T, Cashy J, Metraux S, Blosnich JR, Cusack M, Culhane DP, McInnes DK, Culhane E, Montgomery AE. Association Between Registered Sex Offender Status and Risk of Housing Instability and Homelessness among Veterans. JOURNAL OF INTERPERSONAL VIOLENCE 2022; 37:NP5818-NP5829. [PMID: 32960141 DOI: 10.1177/0886260520959646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Research is limited about whether and to what extent registered sex offenders (RSOs) face an increased risk of housing instability. The intersection of RSO and housing instability is particularly salient for veterans as there are disproportionately higher rates of veterans among both RSOs and homeless populations. This study assessed the relationship between RSO status and risk of housing instability and homelessness among military veterans. We matched a list of 373,774 RSOs obtained from publicly available sex offender registries in 19 states with a cohort of 5.9 million veterans who responded to a brief screening for housing instability administered throughout the Veterans Health Administration between 2012 and 2016. Logistic regression estimated adjusted odds of any housing instability and homelessness among veterans identified as RSOs. Veterans identified as RSOs had 1.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46-2.25) and 2.97 (95% CI 1.67-5.17) times greater odds of reporting any housing instability and homelessness, respectively, than non-RSOs. Findings represent some of the strongest evidence to date for the high risk of housing instability and homelessness among RSOs, suggesting a clear gap in policy and programmatic responses to their unique housing needs. Evidence-based alternative approaches to residence restriction laws may reduce recidivism and protect public safety.
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Inoue M, Kim M, Inoue T, Tait M, Byrne T, Nitschké M, Murer P, Cha H, Subramanian A, De Silva N, Chiaverotti T, McDonald DM. Oncolytic vaccinia virus injected intravenously sensitizes pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors and metastases to immune checkpoint blockade. Mol Ther Oncolytics 2022; 24:299-318. [PMID: 35118189 PMCID: PMC8783073 DOI: 10.1016/j.omto.2021.12.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2021] [Accepted: 12/17/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
This study determined the influence of intravenous (i.v.) oncolytic vaccinia virus mpJX-594 (mpJX) on antitumor activity of anti-programmed death receptor-1 antibody (aPD1) in functional and metastatic pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs). One i.v. dose of mpJX, engineered for mice with the same plasmid design as clinical virus Pexa-Vec, was administered alone or with repeated dosing of aPD1 (mpJX+aPD1) to two contrasting genetic models of PanNET: one developing benign insulin-secreting tumors (RIP1-Tag2;C57BL/6J mice) and the other developing liver metastases (RIP1-Tag2;AB6F1 mice). Experiments revealed that aPD1 had synergistic actions with mpJX on CD8+ T cell and natural killer (NK) cell influx, apoptosis, and suppression of proliferation in PanNETs. After mpJX+aPD1, the 53-fold increase in apoptosis (5 days) and 85% reduction in proliferation (20 days) exceeded the sum of mpJX and aPD1 given separately. mpJX+aPD1 also stabilized blood insulin and glucose in mice with functional PanNETs, regressed liver metastases in mice with aggressive PanNETs, and prolonged survival of both. The findings revealed that mpJX+aPD1 converted “cold” PanNETs into immunogenic tumors with widespread cytotoxic T cell influx, tumor cell killing, and suppression of proliferation. Reduction of tumor insulin secretion from functional PanNETs prolonged survival, and anti-metastatic actions on aggressive PanNETs reduced the metastatic burden to less than before treatment. The findings support the efficacy of the vaccinia virus with aPD1 for functional and metastatic PanNETs.
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Smelson DA, Yakovchenko V, Byrne T, McCullough MB, Smith JL, Bruzios KE, Gabrielian S. Testing implementation facilitation for uptake of an evidence-based psychosocial intervention in VA homeless programs: A hybrid type III trial. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0265396. [PMID: 35298514 PMCID: PMC8929696 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2021] [Accepted: 03/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Healthcare systems face difficulty implementing evidence-based practices, particularly multicomponent interventions. Additional challenges occur in settings serving vulnerable populations such as homeless Veterans, given the population’s acuity, multiple service needs, and organizational barriers. Implementation Facilitation (IF) is a strategy to support the uptake of evidence-based practices. This study’s aim was to simultaneously examine IF on the uptake of Maintaining Independence and Sobriety Through Systems Integration, Outreach and Networking-Veterans Edition (MISSION-Vet), an evidence-based multicomponent treatment engagement intervention for homeless Veterans with co-occurring mental health and substance abuse, and clinical outcomes among Veterans receiving MISSION-Vet. Methods This multi-site hybrid III modified stepped-wedge trial involved seven programs at two Veterans Affairs Medical Centers comparing Implementation as Usual (IU; training and educational materials) to IF (IU + internal and external facilitation). Results A total of 110 facilitation events averaging 27 minutes were conducted, of which 85% were virtual. Staff (case managers and peer specialists; n = 108) were trained in MISSION-Vet and completed organizational readiness assessments (n = 77). Although both sites reported being willing to innovate and a desire to improve outcomes, implementation climate significantly differed. Following IU, no staff at either site conducted MISSION-Vet. Following IF, there was a significant MISSION-Vet implementation difference between sites (53% vs. 14%, p = .002). Among the 93 Veterans that received any MISSION-Vet services, they received an average of six sessions. Significant positive associations were found between number of MISSION-Vet sessions and outpatient treatment engagement measured by the number of outpatient visits attended. Conclusions While staff were interested in improving patient outcomes, MISSION-Vet was not implemented with IU. IF supported MISSION-Vet uptake and increased outpatient service utilization, but MISSION-Vet still proved difficult to implement particularly in the larger healthcare system. Future studies might tailor implementation strategies to organizational readiness. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02942979.
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Fragaszy E, Shrotri M, Geismar C, Aryee A, Beale S, Braithwaite I, Byrne T, Eyre MT, Fong WLE, Gibbs J, Hardelid P, Kovar J, Lampos V, Nastouli E, Navaratnam AM, Nguyen V, Patel P, Aldridge RW, Hayward A. Symptom profiles and accuracy of clinical case definitions for COVID-19 in a community cohort: results from the Virus Watch study. Wellcome Open Res 2022; 7:84. [PMID: 37745779 PMCID: PMC10514573 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17479.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/31/2022] [Indexed: 09/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Understanding symptomatology and accuracy of clinical case definitions for community COVID-19 cases is important for Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) and future targeting of early antiviral treatment. Methods: Community cohort participants prospectively recorded daily symptoms and swab results (mainly undertaken through the UK TTI system). We compared symptom frequency, severity, timing, and duration in test positive and negative illnesses. We compared the test performance of the current UK TTI case definition (cough, high temperature, or loss of or altered sense of smell or taste) with a wider definition adding muscle aches, chills, headache, or loss of appetite. Results: Among 9706 swabbed illnesses, including 973 SARS-CoV-2 positives, symptoms were more common, severe and longer lasting in swab positive than negative illnesses. Cough, headache, fatigue, and muscle aches were the most common symptoms in positive illnesses but also common in negative illnesses. Conversely, high temperature, loss or altered sense of smell or taste and loss of appetite were less frequent in positive illnesses, but comparatively even less frequent in negative illnesses. The current UK definition had 81% sensitivity and 47% specificity versus 93% and 27% respectively for the broader definition. 1.7-fold more illnesses met the broader case definition than the current definition. Conclusions: Symptoms alone cannot reliably distinguish COVID-19 from other respiratory illnesses. Adding additional symptoms to case definitions could identify more infections, but with a large increase in the number needing testing and the number of unwell individuals and contacts self-isolating whilst awaiting results.
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Anzinger JJ, Mears CD, Ades AE, Francis K, Phillips Y, Leys YE, Spyer MJ, Brown D, de Filippis AMB, Nastouli E, Byrne T, Bailey H, Palmer P, Bryan L, Webster-Kerr K, Giaquinto C, Thorne C, Christie CDC. Antenatal Seroprevalence of Zika and Chikungunya Viruses, Kingston Metropolitan Area, Jamaica, 2017–2019. Emerg Infect Dis 2022; 28:473-475. [PMID: 35076369 PMCID: PMC8798668 DOI: 10.3201/eid2802.211849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
To determine the extent of exposure to Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Jamaica, we collected serum from 584 pregnant women during 2017–2019. We found that 15.6% had antibodies against ZIKV and 83.6% against CHIKV. These results indicate potential recirculation of ZIKV but not CHIKV in the near future.
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Geismar C, Fragaszy E, Nguyen V, Fong WLE, Shrotri M, Beale S, Rodger A, Lampos V, Byrne T, Kovar J, Navaratnam AMD, Patel P, Aldridge RW, Hayward A. Household serial interval of COVID-19 and the effect of Variant B.1.1.7: analyses from prospective community cohort study (Virus Watch). Wellcome Open Res 2022; 6:224. [PMID: 34796276 PMCID: PMC8564743 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16974.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/01/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Increased transmissibility of B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) in the UK may explain its rapid emergence and global spread. We analysed data from putative household infector - infectee pairs in the Virus Watch Community cohort study to assess the serial interval of COVID-19 and whether this was affected by emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant. Methods: The Virus Watch study is an online, prospective, community cohort study following up entire households in England and Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic. Putative household infector-infectee pairs were identified where more than one person in the household had a positive swab matched to an illness episode. Data on whether or not individual infections were caused by the B.1.1.7 variant were not available. We therefore developed a classification system based on the percentage of cases estimated to be due to B.1.1.7 in national surveillance data for different English regions and study weeks. Results: Out of 24,887 illnesses reported, 915 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 186 likely ‘infector-infectee’ pairs in 186 households amongst 372 individuals were identified. The mean COVID-19 serial interval was 3.18 (95%CI: 2.55-3.81, sd=4.36) days. There was no significant difference (p=0.267) between the mean serial interval for VOC hotspots (mean = 3.64 days, (95%CI: 2.55 – 4.73)) days and non-VOC hotspots, (mean = 2.72 days, (95%CI: 1.48 – 3.96)). Conclusions: Our estimates of the average serial interval of COVID-19 are broadly similar to estimates from previous studies and we find no evidence that B.1.1.7 is associated with a change in serial intervals. Alternative explanations such as increased viral load, longer period of viral shedding or improved receptor binding may instead explain the increased transmissibility and rapid spread and should undergo further investigation.
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Byrne T, Tsai J. Actuarial prediction versus clinical prediction of exits from a national supported housing program. THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ORTHOPSYCHIATRY 2022; 92:217-223. [PMID: 35025573 PMCID: PMC10687831 DOI: 10.1037/ort0000603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The accurate identification of persons at risk of exiting permanent supportive housing could help maximize client success and minimize attrition and premature exits from such housing. Thus, in the present study, we developed and tested multivariable prediction models of negative and positive exits from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development-Veterans Affairs Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) program using logistic regression and random forests. We compared the performance of these models with clinical predictions made by HUD-VASH program case managers. We selected a cohort of all 92,196 Veterans who entered HUD-VASH nationwide between October 1, 2014 and September 30, 2019, 70% of whom were randomly selected to serve as the development cohort and the remaining 30% of whom served as the validation cohort. Negative and positive exits were measured until September 30, 2019. A subset of 1,264 Veterans was used to compare performance of models with clinical judgment. Predictor variables included sociodemographic characteristics, health and behavioral health diagnoses, homeless/housing history, and VA service utilization history. Performance of models and clinical judgment were assessed using an array of metrics including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value. The logistic regression and random forest models had similar, modest performance in predicting negative and positive exits. These models were substantially more sensitive, yet far less specific in predicting exits than clinician ratings. Study findings highlight the challenges and tradeoffs in using actuarial models or case manager predictions to target interventions to Veterans at risk of exiting HUD-VASH. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).
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Aldridge RW, Pineo H, Fragaszy E, Eyre MT, Kovar J, Nguyen V, Beale S, Byrne T, Aryee A, Smith C, Devakumar D, Taylor J, Katikireddi SV, Fong WLE, Geismar C, Patel P, Shrotri M, Braithwaite I, Patni N, Navaratnam AM, Johnson AM, Hayward A. Household overcrowding and risk of SARS-CoV-2: analysis of the Virus Watch prospective community cohort study in England and Wales. Wellcome Open Res 2021; 6:347. [PMID: 38807847 PMCID: PMC11130583 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17308.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 05/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Background: Household overcrowding is associated with increased risk of infectious diseases across contexts and countries. Limited data exist linking household overcrowding and risk of COVID-19. We used data collected from the Virus Watch cohort to examine the association between overcrowded households and SARS-CoV-2. Methods: The Virus Watch study is a household community cohort of acute respiratory infections in England and Wales. We calculated overcrowding using the measure of persons per room for each household. We considered two primary outcomes: PCR-confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests and laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models that accounted for household structure to estimate the association between household overcrowding and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results:26,367 participants were included in our analyses. The proportion of participants with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result was highest in the overcrowded group (9.0%; 99/1,100) and lowest in the under-occupied group (4.2%; 980/23,196). In a mixed-effects logistic regression model, we found strong evidence of an increased odds of a positive PCR SARS-CoV-2 antigen result (odds ratio 2.45; 95% CI:1.43-4.19; p-value=0.001) and increased odds of a positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody result in individuals living in overcrowded houses (3.32; 95% CI:1.54-7.15; p-value<0.001) compared with people living in under-occupied houses. Conclusion:Public health interventions to prevent and stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 should consider the risk of infection for people living in overcrowded households and pay greater attention to reducing household transmission.
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