Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study

Introduction

Tuberculosis is one of the ten leading causes of death and the leading infectious cause worldwide. The disease represents a challenge to health systems around the world. In 2018, it is estimated that 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis, and approximately 1.5 million people died due to the disease worldwide, including 251,000 patients coinfected with HIV. In Brazil, the disease caused 4,490 deaths, with rate of 2.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The objective of this study was to analyze the time behavior, spatial, spatial-temporal distribution, and the effects of social vulnerability on the incidence of TB in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017.

Materials and methods

A spatial-temporal ecological study was conducted, including all new cases of tuberculosis registered in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. The following variables were analyzed: incidence rate of tuberculosis, the Social Vulnerability Index, its subindices, its 16 indicators, and an additional 14 variables available on the Atlas of Social Vulnerability. The statistical treatment of the data consisted of the following three stages: a) time trend analysis with a joinpoint regression model; b) spatial analysis and identification of risk areas based on smoothing of the incidence rate by local empirical Bayesian model, application of global and local Moran statistics, and, finally, spatial-temporal scan statistics; and c) analysis of association between the incidence rate and the indicators of social vulnerability.

Results

Brazil reduced the incidence of tuberculosis from 42.8 per 100,000 to 35.2 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2017. Only the state of Minas Gerais showed an increasing trend, whereas nine other states showed a stationary trend. A total of 326 Brazilian municipalities were classified as high priority, and 22 high-risk spatial-temporal clusters were identified. The overall Social Vulnerability Index and the subindices of Human Capital and Income and Work were associated with the incidence of tuberculosis. It was also observed that the incidence rates were greater in municipalities with greater social vulnerability.

Conclusions

This study identified clusters with high risk of TB in Brazil. A significant association was observed between the incidence rate of TB and the indices of social vulnerability.

Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013-19: a mathematical modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Many children who develop tuberculosis are thought to be missed by diagnostic and reporting systems. We aimed to estimate paediatric tuberculosis incidence and underreporting between 2013 and 2019 in countries representing more than 99% of the global tuberculosis burden.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model of paediatric tuberculosis natural history, accounting for key mechanisms and risk factors for infectious exposure (HIV, malnutrition, and BCG non-vaccination), the probability of infection given exposure, and progression to disease among infected individuals. We extracted paediatric population estimates from UN Population Division data, and we used WHO estimates for adult tuberculosis incidence rates. We parameterised this model for 185 countries and calibrated it using data from countries with stronger case detection and reporting systems. Using this model, we estimated trends in paediatric incidence, and the proportion of these cases that are diagnosed and reported (case detection ratio [CDR]) for each country, age group, and year.

FINDINGS

For 2019, we estimated 997 500 (95% credible interval [CrI] 868 700-1 163 100) incident tuberculosis cases among children, with 481 000 cases (398 400-587 400) among those aged 0-4 years and 516 500 cases (442 900-608 000) among those aged 5-14 years. The paediatric CDR was estimated to be lower in children aged 0-4 years (41%, 95% CrI 34-50) than in those aged 5-14 years (63%, 53-75) and varied widely between countries. Estimated CDRs increased substantially over the study period, from 18% (15-20) in 2013 to 53% (45-60) in 2019, with improvements concentrated in the Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asia, and Western Pacific regions. Over the study period, global incidence was estimated to have declined slowly at an average annual rate of 1·52% (1·42-1·66).

INTERPRETATION

Paediatric tuberculosis causes substantial morbidity and mortality, and these data indicate that cases (and, thus, probably associated mortality) are currently substantially underreported. These findings reinforce the need to ensure prompt diagnosis and care for children developing tuberculosis, strengthen reporting systems, and invest in research to develop more accurate and easy-to-use diagnostics for paediatric tuberculosis in high-burden settings.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Peptide-Based Vaccines for Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. As a result of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the global TB mortality rate in 2020 is rising, making TB prevention and control more challenging. Vaccination has been considered the best approach to reduce the TB burden. Unfortunately, BCG, the only TB vaccine currently approved for use, offers some protection against childhood TB but is less effective in adults. Therefore, it is urgent to develop new TB vaccines that are more effective than BCG. Accumulating data indicated that peptides or epitopes play essential roles in bridging innate and adaptive immunity and triggering adaptive immunity. Furthermore, innovations in bioinformatics, immunoinformatics, synthetic technologies, new materials, and transgenic animal models have put wings on the research of peptide-based vaccines for TB. Hence, this review seeks to give an overview of current tools that can be used to design a peptide-based vaccine, the research status of peptide-based vaccines for TB, protein-based bacterial vaccine delivery systems, and animal models for the peptide-based vaccines. These explorations will provide approaches and strategies for developing safer and more effective peptide-based vaccines and contribute to achieving the WHO’s End TB Strategy.

Estimation of lifetime survival and predictors of mortality among TB with HIV co-infected children after test and treat strategies launched in Northwest, Ethiopia, 2021; a multicentre historical follow-up study

INTRODUCTION

In resource-limited settings, the mortality rate among tuberculosis and human Immunodeficiency virus co-infected children is higher. However, there is no adequate evidence in Ethiopia in general and in the study area in particular. Hence, this study aims to estimate lifetime survival and predictors of mortality among TB with HIV co-infected children after test and treat strategies launched in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals, 2021.

METHODS

Institution-based historical follow-up study was conducted in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals among 227 Tuberculosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus co-infected children from March 1, 2014, to January 12, 2021. The data were entered into Epi info-7 and then exported to STATA version 14 for analysis. The log-rank test was used to estimate the curve difference of the predictor variables. Bivariable cox-proportional hazard models were employed for each predictor variable. Additionally, those variables having a p-value < 0.25 in bivariate analysis were fitted into a multivariable cox-proportional hazards model. P-value < 0.05 was used to declare significance associated with the dependent variable.

RESULTS

From a total of 227 TB and HIV co-infected children, 39 died during the follow-up period. The overall mortality rate was 3.7 (95% CI (confidence interval): 2.9-4.7) per 100 person-years with a total of 1063.2-year observations. Cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) non-users [Adjusted Hazarded Ratio (AHR) = 3.8 (95% CI: 1.64-8.86)], presence of treatment failure [AHR = 3.0 (95% CI: 1.14-78.17)], and Cluster of differentiation 4(CD4) count below threshold [AHR = 2.7 (95% CI: 1.21-6.45)] were significant predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

In this study, the mortality rate among TB and HIV co-infected children was found to be very high. The risk of mortality among TB and HIV co-infected children was associated with treatment failure, CD4 count below the threshold, and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy non-users. Further research should conduct to assess and improve the quality of ART service in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among persons receiving second-line tuberculosis treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: A meta-analysis of 43 cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance remains from among the most feared public health threats that commonly challenges tuberculosis treatment success. Since 2010, there have been rapid evolution and advances to second-line anti-tuberculosis treatments (SLD). However, evidence on impacts of these advances on incidence of mortality are scarce and conflicting. Estimating the number of people died from any cause during the follow-up period of SLD as the incidence proportion of all-cause mortality is the most informative way of appraising the drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment outcome. We thus aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of mortality and its predictors among persons receiving the SLD in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We systematically identified relevant studies published between January, 2010 and March, 2020, by searching PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane library, Google scholar, and Health Technology Assessment. Eligible English-language publications reported on death and/or its predictors among persons receiving SLD, but those publications that reported death among persons treated for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis were excluded. Study features, patients' clinical characteristics, and incidence and/or predictors of mortality were extracted and pooled for effect sizes employing a random-effects model. The pooled incidence of mortality was estimated as percentage rate while risks of the individual predictors were appraised based on their independent associations with the mortality outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 43 studies were reviewed that revealed 31,525 patients and 4,976 deaths. The pooled incidence of mortality was 17% (95% CI: 15%-18%; I2 = 91.40; P = 0.00). The studies used varied models in identifying predictors of mortality. They found diagnoses of clinical conditions (RR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.82-3.05); excessive substance use (RR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.78-3.67); HIV and other comorbidities (RR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.65-2.32); resistance to SLD (RR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.37-2.23); and male sex (RR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.35-2.44) as consistent predictors of the mortality. Few individual studies also reported an increased incidence of mortality among persons initiated with the SLD after a month delay (RR: 1.59; 95% CI: 0.98-2.60) and those persons with history of tuberculosis (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.12-1.32).

CONCLUSIONS

We found about one in six persons who received SLD in sub-Saharan Africa had died in the last decade. This incidence of mortality among the drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in the sub-Saharan Africa mirrors the global average. Nevertheless, it was considerably high among the patients who had comorbidities; who were diagnosed with other clinical conditions; who had resistance to SLD; who were males and substance users. Therefore, modified measures involving shorter SLD regimens fortified with newer or repurposed drugs, differentiated care approaches, and support of substance use rehabilitation programs can help improve the treatment outcome of persons with the drug-resistant tuberculosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020160473; PROSPERO.

Sociodemographic Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Mortality Among Persons Diagnosed With Tuberculosis and COVID-19 in Close Succession in California, 2020

IMPORTANCE

Tuberculosis (TB) and COVID-19 are respiratory diseases that disproportionately occur among medically underserved populations; little is known about their epidemiologic intersection.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize persons diagnosed with TB and COVID-19 in California.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional analysis of population-based public health surveillance data assessed the sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiologic characteristics of California residents who were diagnosed with TB (including cases diagnosed and reported between September 3, 2019, and December 31, 2020) and COVID-19 (including confirmed cases based on positive results on polymerase chain reaction tests and probable cases based on positive results on antigen assays reported through February 2, 2021) in close succession compared with those who were diagnosed with TB before the COVID-19 pandemic (between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019) or diagnosed with COVID-19 alone (through February 2, 2021). This analysis included 3 402 713 California residents with COVID-19 alone, 6280 with TB before the pandemic, and 91 with confirmed or probable COVID-19 diagnosed within 120 days of a TB diagnosis (ie, TB/COVID-19).

EXPOSURES

Sociodemographic characteristics, medical risk factors, factors associated with TB severity, and health equity index.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Frequency of reported successive TB and COVID-19 (TB/COVID-19) diagnoses within 120 days, frequency of deaths, and age-adjusted mortality rates.

RESULTS

Among the 91 persons with TB/COVID-19, the median age was 58.0 years (range, 3.0-95.0 years; IQR, 41.0-73.0 years); 52 persons (57.1%) were male; 81 (89.0%) were born outside the US; and 28 (30.8%) were Asian or Pacific Islander, 4 (4.4%) were Black, 55 (60.4%) were Hispanic or Latino, 4 (4.4%) were White. The frequency of reported COVID-19 among those who received a TB diagnosis between September 3, 2019, and December 31, 2020, was 225 of 2210 persons (10.2%), which was similar to that of the general population (3 402 804 of 39 538 223 persons [8.6%]). Compared with persons with TB before the pandemic, those with TB/COVID-19 were more likely to be Hispanic or Latino (2285 of 6279 persons [36.4%; 95% CI, 35.2%-37.6%] vs 55 of 91 persons [60.4%; 95% CI, 49.6%-70.5%], respectively; P < .001), reside in low health equity census tracts (1984 of 6027 persons [32.9%; 95% CI, 31.7%-34.1%] vs 40 of 89 persons [44.9%; 95% CI, 34.4%-55.9%]; P = .003), live in the US longer before receiving a TB diagnosis (median, 19.7 years [IQR, 7.2-32.3 years] vs 23.1 years [IQR, 15.2-31.5 years]; P = .03), and have diabetes (1734 of 6280 persons [27.6%; 95% CI, 26.5%-28.7%] vs 42 of 91 persons [46.2%; 95% CI, 35.6%-56.9%]; P < .001). The frequency of deaths among those with TB/COVID-19 successively diagnosed within 30 days (8 of 34 persons [23.5%; 95% CI, 10.8%-41.2%]) was more than twice that of persons with TB before the pandemic (631 of 5545 persons [11.4%; 95% CI, 10.6%-12.2%]; P = .05) and 20 times that of persons with COVID-19 alone (42 171 of 3 402 713 persons [1.2%; 95% CI, 1.2%-1.3%]; P < .001). Persons with TB/COVID-19 who died were older (median, 81.0 years; IQR, 75.0-85.0 years) than those who survived (median, 54.0 years; IQR, 37.5-68.5 years; P < .001). The age-adjusted mortality rate remained higher among persons with TB/COVID-19 (74.2 deaths per 1000 persons; 95% CI, 26.2-122.1 deaths per 1000 persons) compared with either disease alone (TB before the pandemic: 56.3 deaths per 1000 persons [95% CI, 51.2-61.4 deaths per 1000 persons]; COVID-19 only: 17.1 deaths per 1000 persons [95% CI, 16.9-17.2 deaths per 1000 persons]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional analysis, TB/COVID-19 was disproportionately diagnosed among California residents who were Hispanic or Latino, had diabetes, or were living in low health equity census tracts. These results suggest that tuberculosis and COVID-19 occurring together may be associated with increases in mortality compared with either disease alone, especially among older adults. Addressing health inequities and integrating prevention efforts could avert the occurrence of concurrent COVID-19 and TB and potentially reduce deaths.

The effect of BCG revaccination on all-cause mortality beyond infancy: 30-year follow-up of a population-based, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Trials of BCG vaccination to prevent or reduce severity of COVID-19 are taking place in adults, some of whom have been previously vaccinated, but evidence of the beneficial, non-specific effects of BCG come largely from data on mortality in infants and young children, and from in-vitro and animal studies, after a first BCG vaccination. We assess all-cause mortality following a large BCG revaccination trial in Malawi.

METHODS

The Karonga Prevention trial was a population-based, double-blind, randomised controlled in Karonga District, northern Malawi, that enrolled participants between January, 1986, and November, 1989. The trial compared BCG (Glaxo-strain) revaccination versus placebo to prevent tuberculosis and leprosy. 46 889 individuals aged 3 months to 75 years were randomly assigned to receive BCG revaccination (n=23 528) or placebo (n=23 361). Here we report mortality since vaccination as recorded during active follow-up in northern areas of the district in 1991-94, and in a demographic surveillance follow-up in the southern area in 2002-18. 7389 individuals who received BCG (n=3746) or placebo (n=3643) lived in the northern follow-up areas, and 5616 individuals who received BCG (n=2798) or placebo (n=2818) lived in the southern area. Year of death or leaving the area were recorded for those not found. We used survival analysis to estimate all-cause mortality.

FINDINGS

Follow-up information was available for 3709 (99·0%) BCG recipients and 3612 (99·1%) placebo recipients in the northern areas, and 2449 (87·5%) BCG recipients and 2413 (85·6%) placebo recipients in the southern area. There was no difference in mortality between the BCG and placebo groups in either area, overall or by age group or sex. In the northern area, there were 129 deaths per 19 694 person-years at risk in the BCG group (6·6 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·5-7·8]) versus 133 deaths per 19 111 person-years at risk in the placebo group (7·0 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·9-8·2]; HR 0·94 [95% CI 0·74-1·20]; p=0·62). In the southern area, there were 241 deaths per 38 399 person-years at risk in the BCG group (6·3 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·5-7·1]) versus 230 deaths per 38 676 person-years at risk in the placebo group (5·9 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·2-6·8]; HR 1·06 [95% CI 0·88-1·27]; p=0·54).

INTERPRETATION

We found little evidence of any beneficial effect of BCG revaccination on all-cause mortality. The high proportion of deaths attributable to non-infectious causes beyond infancy, and the long time interval since BCG for most deaths, might obscure any benefits.

FUNDING

British Leprosy Relief Association (LEPRA); Wellcome Trust.

Institutional mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition, touted as occurring in Ghana, requires research that tracks the changing patterns of diseases in order to capture the trend and improve healthcare delivery. This study examines national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018.

METHODS

Institutional mortality data and cause of death from 2014-2018 were sourced from the Ghana Health Service's District Health Information Management System. The latter collates healthcare service data routinely from government and non-governmental health institutions in Ghana yearly. The institutional mortality rate was estimated using guidelines from the Ghana Health Service. Percent change in mortality was examined for 2014 and 2018. In addition, cause of death data were available for 2017 and 2018. The World Health Organisation's 11th International Classification for Diseases (ICD-11) was used to group the cause of death.

RESULTS

Institutional mortality decreased by 7% nationally over the study period. However, four out of ten regions (Greater Accra, Volta, Upper East, and Upper West) recorded increases in institutional mortality. The Upper East (17%) and Volta regions (13%) recorded the highest increase. Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were the leading cause of death in 2017 (25%) and 2018 (20%). This was followed by certain infectious and parasitic diseases (15% for both years) and respiratory infections (10% in 2017 and 13% in 2018). Among the NCDs, hypertension was the leading cause of death with 2,243 and 2,472 cases in 2017 and 2018. Other (non-ischemic) heart diseases and diabetes were the second and third leading NCDs. Septicaemia, tuberculosis and pneumonia were the predominant infectious diseases. Regional variations existed in the cause of death. NCDs showed more urban-region bias while infectious diseases presented more rural-region bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study examined national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana. Ghana recorded a decrease in institutional mortality throughout the study. NCDs and infections were the leading causes of death, giving a double-burden of diseases. There is a need to enhance efforts towards healthcare and health promotion programmes for NCDs and infectious diseases at facility and community levels as outlined in the 2020 National Health Policy of Ghana.

Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register

In 2011, the South African HIV treatment eligibility criteria were expanded to allow all tuberculosis (TB) patients lifelong ART. The impact of this change on TB mortality in South Africa is not known. We evaluated mortality in all adults (≥ 15 years old) treated for drug-susceptible TB in South Africa between 2009 and 2016. Using a Cox regression model, we quantified risk factors for mortality during TB treatment and present standardised mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by year, age, sex, and HIV status. During the study period, 8.6% (219,618/2,551,058) of adults on TB treatment died. Older age, male sex, previous TB treatment and HIV infection (with or without the use of ART) were associated with increased hazard of mortality. There was a 19% reduction in hazard of mortality amongst all TB patients between 2009 and 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81 95%CI 0.80-0.83). The highest SMR was in 15-24-year-old women, more than double that of men (42.3 in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the SMR for HIV-positive TB patients increased, from 9.0 to 19.6 in women, and 7.0 to 10.6 in men. In South Africa, case fatality during TB treatment is decreasing and further interventions to address specific risk factors for TB mortality are required. Young women (15-24-year-olds) with TB experience a disproportionate burden of mortality and interventions targeting this age-group are needed.

Quantifying the global number of tuberculosis survivors: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

People who survive tuberculosis face clinical and societal consequences after recovery, including increased risks of recurrent tuberculosis, premature death, reduced lung function, and ongoing stigma. To describe the size of this issue, we aimed to estimate the number of individuals who developed first-episode tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019, the number who survived to 2020, and the number who have been treated within the past 5 years or 2 years.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we estimated the number of people who survived treated tuberculosis using country-level WHO data on tuberculosis case notifications, excluding those who died during treatment. We estimated the number of individuals surviving untreated tuberculosis using the difference between WHO country-level incidence estimates and notifications, applying published age-stratified and HIV-stratified case fatality ratios. To estimate survival with time, post-tuberculosis life tables were developed for each country-year by use of UN World Population Prospects 2019 mortality rates and published post-tuberculosis mortality hazard ratios.

FINDINGS

Between 1980 and 2019, we estimate that 363 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 287 million-438 million) developed tuberculosis, of whom 172 million (169 million-174 million) were treated. Individuals who developed tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019 had lived 3480 million life-years (95% UI 3040 million-3920 million) after tuberculosis by 2020, with survivors younger than 15 years at the time of tuberculosis development contributing 12% (95% UI 7-17) of these life-years. We estimate that 155 million tuberculosis survivors (95% UI 138 million-171 million) were alive in 2020, the largest proportion (47% [37-57]) of whom were in the WHO South-East Asia region. Of the tuberculosis survivors who were alive in 2020, we estimate that 18% (95% UI 16-20) were treated in the past 5 years and 8% (7-9) were treated in the past 2 years.

INTERPRETATION

The number of tuberculosis survivors alive in 2020 is more than ten times the estimated annual tuberculosis incidence. Interventions to alleviate respiratory morbidity, screen for and prevent recurrent tuberculosis, and reduce stigma should be immediately prioritised for recently treated tuberculosis survivors.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the National Institute for Health Research, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

Early mortality in tuberculosis patients initially lost to follow up following diagnosis in provincial hospitals and primary health care facilities in Western Cape, South Africa

In South Africa, low tuberculosis (TB) treatment coverage and high TB case fatality remain important challenges. Following TB diagnosis, patients must link with a primary health care (PHC) facility for initiation or continuation of antituberculosis treatment and TB registration. We aimed to evaluate mortality among TB patients who did not link to a TB treatment facility for TB treatment within 30 days of their TB diagnosis, i.e. who were “initial loss to follow-up (ILTFU)” in Cape Town, South Africa. We prospectively included all patients with a routine laboratory or clinical diagnosis of TB made at PHC or hospital level in Khayelitsha and Tygerberg sub-districts in Cape Town, using routine TB data from an integrated provincial health data centre between October 2018 and March 2020. Overall, 74% (10,208/13,736) of TB patients were diagnosed at PHC facilities and ILTFU was 20.0% (2,742/13,736). Of ILTFU patients, 17.1% (468/2,742) died, with 69.7% (326/468) of deaths occurring within 30 days of diagnosis. Most ILTFU deaths (85.5%; 400/468) occurred in patients diagnosed in hospital. Multivariable logistic regression identified increasing age, HIV positive status, and hospital-based TB diagnosis (higher in the absence of TB treatment initiation and being ILTFU) as predictors of mortality. Although hospitals account for a modest proportion of diagnosed TB patients they have high TB-associated mortality. A hospital-based TB diagnosis is a critical opportunity to identify those at high risk of early and overall mortality. Interventions to diagnose TB before hospital admission, improve linkage to TB treatment following diagnosis, and reduce mortality in hospital-diagnosed TB patients should be prioritised.

Corticosteroids for COVID-19 Therapy: Potential Implications on Tuberculosis

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization announced the Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic, which originated in China. At the host level, COVID-19, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), affects the respiratory system, with the clinical symptoms ranging from mild to severe or critical illness that often requires hospitalization and oxygen support. There is no specific therapy for COVID-19, as is the case for any common viral disease except drugs to reduce the viral load and alleviate the inflammatory symptoms. Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), also primarily affects the lungs and has clinical signs similar to pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 infection. Active TB is a leading killer among infectious diseases and adds to the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. In immunocompetent individuals, primary Mtb infection can also lead to a non-progressive, asymptomatic latency. However, latent Mtb infection (LTBI) can reactivate symptomatic TB disease upon host immune-suppressing conditions. Importantly, the diagnosis and treatment of TB are hampered and admixed with COVID-19 control measures. The US-Center for Disease Control (US-CDC) recommends using antiviral drugs, Remdesivir or corticosteroid (CST), such as dexamethasone either alone or in-combination with specific recommendations for COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization or oxygen support. However, CSTs can cause immunosuppression, besides their anti-inflammatory properties. The altered host immunity during COVID-19, combined with CST therapy, poses a significant risk for new secondary infections and/or reactivation of existing quiescent infections, such as LTBI. This review highlights CST therapy recommendations for COVID-19, various types and mechanisms of action of CSTs, the deadly combination of two respiratory infectious diseases COVID-19 and TB. It also discusses the importance of screening for LTBI to prevent TB reactivation during corticosteroid therapy for COVID-19.

Treatment outcome of tuberculosis at Dilla Referral Hospital, Gedeo Zone, southern Ethiopia: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the major public health problems in Ethiopia. Determining treatment outcome of TB cases could help to understand the effectiveness of TB control efforts. The objective of this study was to assess TB treatment outcome and associated factors and determine the risk factors of death among TB cases who were on Directly Observed Treatment Short course (DOTS).

METHODOLOGY

We analyzed a retrospective data for TB cases who were on DOTS at Dilla Referral Hospital from July 2011- June 2016. The study population was TB cases with known HIV status and whose treatment outcome was evaluated at the Hospital. Data were entered, cleaned and analyzed using statistical package SPSS for windows, version 20.

RESULT

Out of 899 registered TB cases, 731 included in this analysis. Of these cases, 424 (58.0%) were male and 334 (45.7%) were in the age group of below 25 years. Treatment success rate of TB was 675 (92.3%) and death rate was 18 (2.5%). Treatment outcome showed statistically significant variation by HIV status (P < 0.001). HIV status of the TB cases and pretreatment weight were associated with TB treatment outcome. HIV status of the TB cases was associated with death of the TB cases (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 5.0; CI 95%: 1.8-13.5).

CONCLUSION

TB treatment success rate found in this study was high. Patient's weight and HIV status were associated with treatment outcome. Moreover, HIV status predicted death of TB cases. Cautious treatment follow-up and defaulter tracing mechanisms for TB cases with these risk factors were suggested.

Case fatality and recurrent tuberculosis among patients managed in the private sector: A cohort study in Patna, India

BACKGROUND

A key component of the WHO End TB Strategy is quality of care, for which case fatality is a critical marker. Half of India's nearly 3 million TB patients are treated in the highly unregulated private sector, yet little is known about the outcomes of these patients. Using a retrospective cohort design, we estimated the case fatality ratio (CFR) and rate of recurrent TB among patients managed in the private healthcare sector in Patna, India.

METHODS

World Health Partners' Private Provider Interface Agencies (PPIA) pilot project in Patna has treated 89,906 private sector TB patients since 2013. A random sample of 4,000 patients treated from 2014 to 2016 were surveyed in 2018 for case fatality and recurrent TB. CFR is defined as the proportion of patients who die during the period of interest. Treatment CFRs, post-treatment CFRs and rates of recurrent TB were estimated. Predictors for fatality and recurrence were identified using Cox proportional hazards modelling. Survey non-response was adjusted for using inverse probability selection weighting.

RESULTS

The survey response rate was 56.0%. The weighted average follow-up times were 8.7 months in the treatment phase and 26.4 months in the post-treatment phase. Unobserved patients were more likely to have less than one month of treatment adherence (32.0% vs. 13.5%) and were more likely to live in rural Patna (21.9% vs. 15.0%). The adjusted treatment phase CFR was 7.27% (5.97%, 8.49%) and at 24 months post-treatment was 3.32% (2.36%, 4.42%). The adjusted 24 month post-treatment phase recurrent TB rate was 3.56% (2.54%, 4.79%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our cohort study provides critical estimates of TB patient outcomes in the Indian private sector, and accounts for selection bias. Patients in the private sector in Patna experienced a moderate treatment CFR but rates of recurrent TB and post-treatment fatality were low.

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag ('LF-LAM'), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM ('SILVAMP-LAM') showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Concentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing 'current' tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical 'future' tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000-3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000-520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33-86) and 90 (95% CrI 55-145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%-6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%-11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000-870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%-29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000-210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%-44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF ('Xpert') for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.

Trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in children and adolescents <20 years in rural KwaZulu-Natal South Africa, 2000-2014

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, large increases in early adult mortality during the 1990s and early 2000s have reversed since public HIV treatment rollout in 2004. In a rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, we investigate trends in parental mortality and orphanhood from 2000-2014.

METHODS

Using longitudinal demographic surveillance data for a population of approximately 90,000, we calculated annual incidence and prevalence of maternal, paternal and double orphanhood in children and adolescents (<20 years) and, overall and cause-specific mortality of parents by age.

RESULTS

The proportion of children and adolescents (<20 years) for whom one or both parents had died rose from 26% in 2000 to peak at 36% in 2010, followed by a decline to 32% in 2014. The burden of orphanhood remains high especially in the oldest age group: in 2014, 53% of adolescents 15-19 years had experienced the death of one or both parents. In all age groups and years, paternal orphan prevalence was three-five times higher than maternal orphan prevalence. Maternal and paternal orphan incidence peaked in 2005 at 17 and 27 per 1,000 person years respectively (<20 years) before declining by half through 2014. The leading cause of parental death throughout the period, HIV/AIDS and TB cause-specific mortality rates declined substantially in mothers and fathers from 2007 and 2009 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The survival of parents with children and adolescents <20 years has improved in tandem with earlier initiation and higher coverage of HIV treatment. However, comparatively high levels of parental deaths persist in this rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, particularly among fathers. Community-level surveillance to estimate levels of orphanhood remains important for monitoring and evaluation of targeted state welfare support for orphans and their guardians.

Estimating the effect of pretreatment loss to follow up on TB associated mortality at public health facilities in Uganda

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality estimates derived only from cohorts of patients initiated on TB treatment do not consider outcomes of patients with pretreatment loss to follow-up (LFU). We aimed to assess the effect of pretreatment LFU on TB-associated mortality in the six months following TB diagnosis at public health facilities in Uganda.

METHODS

At ten public health facilities, we retrospectively reviewed treatment data for all patients with a positive Xpert®MTB/RIF test result from January to June 2018. Pretreatment LFU was defined as not initiating TB treatment within two weeks of a positive test. We traced patients with pretreatment LFU to ascertain their vital status. We performed Kaplan Meier survival analysis to compare the cumulative incidence of mortality, six months after diagnosis among patients who did and did not experience pretreatment LFU. We also determined the health facility level estimates of TB associated mortality before and after incorporating deaths prior to treatment initiation among patients who experienced pretreatment LFU.

RESULTS

Of 510 patients with positive test, 100 (19.6%) experienced pretreatment LFU. Of these, we ascertained the vital status of 49 patients. In the six months following TB diagnosis, mortality was higher among patients who experienced pretreatment LFU 48.1/1000py vs 22.9/1000py. Hazard ratio [HR] 3.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] (1.61-6.30). After incorporating deaths prior to treatment initation among patients who experienced pretreatment LFU, health facility level estimates of TB associated mortality increased from 8.4% (95% CI 6.1%-11.6%) to 10.2% (95% CI 7.7%-13.4%).

CONCLUSION

Patients with confirmed TB who experience pretreatment LFU have high mortality within the first six months. Efforts should be made to prioritise linkage to treatment for this group of patients. Deaths that occur prior to treatment initation should be included when reporting TB mortality in order to more accurately reflect the health impact of TB.

Tuberculosis and COVID-19 Co-infection: An Updated Review

Coronavirus disease (COVID 19) has involved millions of people all over the world. Tuberculosis (TB) continues to affect millions of people every year with high mortality. There is limited literature on the occurrence of COVID 19 in patients with TB. We reviewed the available data on various clinical details, management, and outcome among patients with COVID-19 and TB. 8 studies reported a total of 80 patients with this coinfection. These patients were reported from ten different countries, with Italy reporting the largest number of cases. Migrant, males constituted a major proportion of cases. Most reported patients were symptomatic. Fever, dry cough, and dyspnea were the most commonly reported symptoms. Bilateral ground glass opacities were more common in COVID 19 infection and cavitary lesions were more common in patients with TB. Most reported TB patients had been found to have mycobacterium tuberculosis from sputum culture in the background of pulmonary TB. Most patients of TB were treated with multidrug regimen antitubercular therapy. In all 8 studies, COVID 19 was treated as per the local protocol. Mortality was reported in more than 10% of patients. Mortality was higher in elderly patients (> 70 years) and amongst patient with multiple medical comorbidities.

Treatment outcomes of Nigerian patients with tuberculosis: A retrospective 25-year review in a regional medical center

Introduction

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global health challenge and leading infectious killer worldwide. The need for continuous evaluation of TB treatment outcomes becomes more imperative in the midst of a global economic meltdown substantially impacting resource-limited-settings.

Methods

This study retrospectively reviewed 25-years of treatment outcomes in 3,384 patients who were managed for TB at a tertiary hospital in Nigeria. Confirmed TB cases were given directly observed therapy of a short-course treatment regimen and monitored for clinical response.

Results

Out of 1,146,560 patients screened, there were 24,330 (2.1%) presumptive and 3,384 (13.9%) confirmed TB cases. The patients’ mean age was 35.8 years (0.33–101 years). There were 1,902 (56.2%) male, 332(9.8%) pediatric, and 2,878 (85%) pulmonary TB cases.

The annual mean measured treatment outcomes were as follows: adherence, 91.4(±5.8) %; successful outcome, 75.3(±8.8) % potentially unsatisfactory outcome, 14.8(±7.2) %; and mortality 10.0(±3.6) %.

Female, extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB), newly diagnosed, and relapsed patients compliant with treatment had successful outcomes. Adulthood and HIV infection were mortality risk factors.

Conclusion

The mean annual successful treatment outcome is 75.3(±8.8) %. Female, pediatric, EPTB, new, and relapsed patients were predisposed to successful treatment outcomes. Lessons learned will guide future program modifications.

Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: Competing risks analysis

Objectives

This study aimed to analyze the factors associated with likely TB deaths, likely TB-related deaths and deaths from other causes. Understanding the factors associated with mortality could help the strategy to End TB, especially the goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% between 2015 and 2035.

Methods

A retrospective, population-based cohort study of the causes of death was performed using a competing risk model in patients receiving treatment for TB. Patients had started TB treatment in Brazil 2008–2013 with any death certificates dated in the same period. We used three categories of deaths, according to ICD-10 codes: i) probable TB deaths; ii) TB-related deaths; iii) deaths from other causes.

Results

In this cohort, 39,997 individuals (14.1%) died, out of a total of 283,508 individuals. Of these, 8,936 were probable TB deaths (22.4%) and 3,365 TB-related deaths (8.4%), illustrating high mortality rates. 27,696 deaths (69.2%) were from other causes. From our analysis, factors strongly associated with probable TB deaths were male gender (sHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.26–1.40), age over 60 years (sHR = 9.29, 95% CI: 8.15–10.60), illiterate schooling (sHR = 2.33, 95% CI: 2.09–2.59), black (sHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.26–1.40) and brown (sHR = 13, 95% CI: 1.07–1.19) color/race, from the Southern region (sHR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10–1.28), clinical mixed forms (sHR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.73–2.11) and alcoholism (sHR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.81–2.00). Also, HIV positive serology was strongly associated with probable TB deaths (sHR = 62.78; 95% CI: 55.01–71.63).

Conclusions

In conclusion, specific strategies for active surveillance and early case detection can reduce mortality among patients with tuberculosis, leading to more timely detection and treatment.