Targeted client communication via mobile devices for improving sexual and reproductive health

BACKGROUND

The burden of poor sexual and reproductive health (SRH) worldwide is substantial, disproportionately affecting those living in low- and middle-income countries. Targeted client communication (TCC) delivered via mobile devices (MD) (TCCMD) may improve the health behaviours and service use important for sexual and reproductive health.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of TCC via MD on adolescents' knowledge, and on adolescents' and adults' sexual and reproductive health behaviour, health service use, and health and well-being.

SEARCH METHODS

In July/August 2017, we searched five databases including The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE and Embase. We also searched two trial registries. A search update was carried out in July 2019 and potentially relevant studies are awaiting classification.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials of TCC via MD to improve sexual and reproductive health behaviour, health service use, and health and well-being. Eligible comparators were standard care or no intervention, non-digital TCC, and digital non-targeted communication.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane, although data extraction and risk of bias assessments were carried out by one person only and cross-checked by a second. We have presented results separately for adult and adolescent populations, and for each comparison.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 40 trials (27 among adult populations and 13 among adolescent populations) with a total of 26,854 participants. All but one of the trials among adolescent populations were conducted in high-income countries. Trials among adult populations were conducted in a range of high- to low-income countries. Among adolescents, nine interventions were delivered solely through text messages; four interventions tested text messages in combination with another communication channel, such as emails, multimedia messaging, or voice calls; and one intervention used voice calls alone. Among adults, 20 interventions were delivered through text messages; two through a combination of text messages and voice calls; and the rest were delivered through other channels such as voice calls, multimedia messaging, interactive voice response, and instant messaging services. Adolescent populations TCCMD versus standard care TCCMD may increase sexual health knowledge (risk ratio (RR) 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23 to 1.71; low-certainty evidence). TCCMD may modestly increase contraception use (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.35; low-certainty evidence). The effects on condom use, antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, and health service use are uncertain due to very low-certainty evidence. The effects on abortion and STI rates are unknown due to lack of studies. TCCMD versus non-digital TCC (e.g. pamphlets) The effects of TCCMD on behaviour (contraception use, condom use, ART adherence), service use, health and wellbeing (abortion and STI rates) are unknown due to lack of studies for this comparison. TCCMD versus digital non-targeted communication The effects on sexual health knowledge, condom and contraceptive use are uncertain due to very low-certainty evidence. Interventions may increase health service use (attendance for STI/HIV testing, RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.40; low-certainty evidence). The intervention may be beneficial for reducing STI rates (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.33; low-certainty evidence), but the confidence interval encompasses both benefit and harm. The effects on abortion rates and on ART adherence are unknown due to lack of studies. We are uncertain whether TCCMD results in unintended consequences due to lack of evidence. Adult populations TCCMD versus standard care For health behaviours, TCCMD may modestly increase contraception use at 12 months (RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.48) and may reduce repeat abortion (RR 0.68 95% CI 0.28 to 1.66), though the confidence interval encompasses benefit and harm (low-certainty evidence). The effect on condom use is uncertain. No study measured the impact of this intervention on STI rates. TCCMD may modestly increase ART adherence (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.32, low-certainty evidence, and standardised mean difference 0.44, 95% CI -0.14 to 1.02, low-certainty evidence). TCCMD may modestly increase health service utilisation (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.31; low-certainty evidence), but there was substantial heterogeneity (I² = 85%), with mixed results according to type of service utilisation (i.e. attendance for STI testing; HIV treatment; voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC); VMMC post-operative visit; post-abortion care). For health and well-being outcomes, there may be little or no effect on CD4 count (mean difference 13.99, 95% CI -8.65 to 36.63; low-certainty evidence) and a slight reduction in virological failure (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.01; low-certainty evidence). TCCMD versus non-digital TCC No studies reported STI rates, condom use, ART adherence, abortion rates, or contraceptive use as outcomes for this comparison. TCCMD may modestly increase in service attendance overall (RR: 1.12, 95% CI 0.92-1.35, low certainty evidence), however the confidence interval encompasses benefit and harm. TCCMD versus digital non-targeted communication No studies reported STI rates, condom use, ART adherence, abortion rates, or contraceptive use as outcomes for this comparison. TCCMD may increase service utilisation overall (RR: 1.71, 95% CI 0.67-4.38, low certainty evidence), however the confidence interval encompasses benefit and harm and there was considerable heterogeneity (I² = 72%), with mixed results according to type of service utilisation (STI/HIV testing, and VMMC). Few studies reported on unintended consequences. One study reported that a participant withdrew from the intervention as they felt it compromised their undisclosed HIV status.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

TCCMD may improve some outcomes but the evidence is of low certainty. The effect on most outcomes is uncertain/unknown due to very low certainty evidence or lack of evidence. High quality, adequately powered trials and cost effectiveness analyses are required to reliably ascertain the effects and relative benefits of TCC delivered by mobile devices. Given the sensitivity and stigma associated with sexual and reproductive health future studies should measure unintended consequences, such as partner violence or breaches of confidentiality.

NEDOCS: is it really useful for detecting emergency department overcrowding today?

The Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding is an ongoing problem all over the world. The scoring systems are available for the detection of this problem. This study aims to test the applicability of the National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study (NEDOCS) scoring system, one of the scoring systems that evaluate the ED overcrowding.In this prospective observational study, the survey was applied on on-duty doctors, nurses, paramedics, intern doctors, and ward persons working in a University Adult Emergency Department and agreed to participate in the study, between certain hours during the day and the NEDOCS score was calculated simultaneously. The demographic characteristics of the on-duty staff, overcrowding of ED, and the number of the on-duty staff members were recorded in the questionnaires.During the study, 153 measurements were performed, and 3221 questionnaires were filled. The NEDOCS mean score was determined as 101.59 and the most reached result was "extremely busy but not overcrowded" (32%). The ED was rated mostly as "busy" (33.7%) by the on-duty staff. A significant difference was found between ED overcrowding and NEDOCS score. There is a significant difference between ED overcrowding and on-duty emergency nurse and intern doctor count.The NEDOCS score is not suitable for evaluating ED overcrowding. Accurate determination of the ED overcrowding is very important to avoid the negative consequences of the ED overcrowding. Increasing emergency nurse and intern doctor count will decrease ED overcrowding. Also, there is an urgent need to constitute local hospitals and also public health policies to satisfy the increasingly ED's presentations.

Health system collapse 45 days after the detection of COVID-19 in Ceará, Northeast Brazil: a preliminary analysis

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 emerged in late 2019 and quickly became a serious public health problem worldwide. This study aim to describe the epidemiological course of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 and their impact on hospital bed occupancy rates in the first 45 days of the epidemic in the state of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil.

METHODS

The study used an ecological design with data gathered from multiple government and health care sources. Data were analyzed using Epi Info software.

RESULTS

The first cases were confirmed on March 15, 2020. After 45 days, 37,268 cases reported in 85.9% of Ceará's municipalities, with 1,019 deaths. Laboratory test positivity reached 84.8% at the end of April, a period in which more than 700 daily tests were processed. The average age of cases was 67 (<1 - 101) years, most occurred in a hospital environment (91.9%), and 58% required hospitalization in an ICU bed. The average time between the onset of symptoms and death was 18 (1 - 56) days. Patients who died in the hospital had spent an average of six (0 - 40) days hospitalized. Across Ceará, the bed occupancy rate reached 71.3% in the wards and 80.5% in the ICU.

CONCLUSIONS

The first 45 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ceará revealed a large number of cases and deaths, spreading initially among the population with a high socioeconomic status. Despite the efforts by the health services and social isolation measures the health system still collapsed.

Health and social interventions in the context of support and control: The experiences of marginalised people who use drugs in Australia

People who use illicit drugs frequently become targets for welfare intervention, often positioned both as complicit in the reproduction of intergenerational poverty and marginalisation, and as sources of hope for interrupting such patterns. This article draws on empirical research exploring the experiences of highly marginalised people with histories of illicit drug-use to investigate how they negotiate service encounters in the context of the participants' previous experiences with welfare interventions. In doing so, the article seeks to texture the conception of the support and control nexus, drawing out the systemic and service level factors of welfare services which inhibit people who use drugs from benefitting from available support. We conducted 12 in-depth interviews with participants subject to interventions by health, social or legal services between July and September 2018. All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and coded in NVivo. Transcripts were analysed using a grounded theory approach where data were subject to an iterative process of constant comparisons to identify emergent themes and theoretical concepts. The findings suggest that the blending of welfare services and systems of control has unintended and often negative consequences for highly marginalised people. In effect, the drug treatment programme's aims of assisting people to reduce harm and increase stability are significantly undermined by control mechanisms such as mandatory reporting policies. A better understanding of the ways in which welfare service processes alienate marginalised people from seeking support, as well as from benefitting from the support available, might provide a way to address these concerns.

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting the size of an unmitigated epidemic and the potential effect of different control measures has been crucial to support evidence-based policy making during the early stages of the epidemic. This study assesses the potential impact of different control measures for mitigating the burden of COVID-19 in the UK.

METHODS

We used a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of intervention scenarios, tracking 66·4 million people aggregated to 186 county-level administrative units in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The four base interventions modelled were school closures, physical distancing, shielding of people aged 70 years or older, and self-isolation of symptomatic cases. We also modelled the combination of these interventions, as well as a programme of intensive interventions with phased lockdown-type restrictions that substantially limited contacts outside of the home for repeated periods. We simulated different triggers for the introduction of interventions, and estimated the impact of varying adherence to interventions across counties. For each scenario, we projected estimated new cases over time, patients requiring inpatient and critical care (ie, admission to the intensive care units [ICU]) treatment, and deaths, and compared the effect of each intervention on the basic reproduction number, R0.

FINDINGS

We projected a median unmitigated burden of 23 million (95% prediction interval 13-30) clinical cases and 350 000 deaths (170 000-480 000) due to COVID-19 in the UK by December, 2021. We found that the four base interventions were each likely to decrease R0, but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding health service capacity. The combined intervention was more effective at reducing R0, but only lockdown periods were sufficient to bring R0 near or below 1; the most stringent lockdown scenario resulted in a projected 120 000 cases (46 000-700 000) and 50 000 deaths (9300-160 000). Intensive interventions with lockdown periods would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent health-care demand exceeding availability.

INTERPRETATION

The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mean that extreme measures are probably required to bring the epidemic under control and to prevent very large numbers of deaths and an excess of demand on hospital beds, especially those in ICUs.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council.

Evaluating the implementation of an early supported discharge (ESD) program for stroke survivors: A mixed methods longitudinal case study

BACKGROUND

Early supported discharge (ESD) models of care for stroke survivors coordinate inpatient and community services, with the aim of reducing length of stay. While there is an established evidence base around the clinical outcomes of ESD), less is known about the implementation of this approach into existing stroke care service. The aim of this case study was to describe staff perceptions of the implementation of an ESD model of care for stroke survivors at a large metropolitan public hospital in Australia.

METHODS

This case study utilised a mixed methods design, which was designed in explicit alignment with the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). Participants included staff that referred patients for ESD, and staff involved in the planning, implementation or delivery of ESD. Survey data was collected at three time points (ESD commencement, 3 months and 6 months), and focus groups were undertaken at the conclusion of the study. All quantitative data was analysed descriptive, while qualitative data was evaluated using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Results from both sources of data identified changes in staff perceptions of ESD implementation over time. While very few changes were statistically significant, they were diverse patterns of change across the CFIR constructs over time. The characteristics of individuals and ESD characteristics attracted consistently positive perceptions, while patient needs and resources was the most prevalent theme within the data. While perceptions of factors related to the inner setting were mixed, there was a steady improvement in perceptions about the process across the later stages of implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

The sophistication of knowledge translation and implementation in modern complex healthcare environments is highlighted by the multiple interactions between the CFIR domains and constructs. While the implementation process described was generally positive and effective, using the CFIR as a framework confirmed that it also entailed some challenges and unanticipated outcomes.

Prediction modelling studies for medical usage rates in mass gatherings: A systematic review

Background

Mass gathering manifestations attended by large crowds are an increasingly common feature of society. In parallel, an increased number of studies have been conducted that developed and/or validated a model to predict medical usage rates at these manifestations.

Aims

To conduct a systematic review to screen, analyse and critically appraise those studies that developed or validated a multivariable statistical model to predict medical usage rates at mass gatherings. To identify those biomedical, psychosocial and environmental predictors that are associated with increased medical usage rates and to summarise the predictive performance of the models.

Method

We searched for relevant prediction modelling studies in six databases. The predictors from multivariable regression models were listed for each medical usage rate outcome (i.e. patient presentation rate (PPR), transfer to hospital rate (TTHR) and the incidence of new injuries). The GRADE methodology (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) was used to assess the certainty of evidence.

Results

We identified 7,036 references and finally included 16 prediction models which were developed (n = 13) or validated (n = 3) in the USA (n = 8), Australia (n = 4), Japan (n = 1), Singapore (n = 1), South Africa (n = 1) and The Netherlands (n = 1), with a combined audience of >48 million people in >1700 mass gatherings. Variables to predict medical usage rates were biomedical (i.e. age, gender, level of competition, training characteristics and type of injury) and environmental predictors (i.e. crowd size, accommodation, weather, free water availability, time of the manifestation and type of the manifestation) (low-certainty evidence). Evidence from 3 studies indicated that using Arbon’s or Zeitz’ model in other contexts significantly over- or underestimated medical usage rates (from 22% overestimation to 81% underestimation).

Conclusions

This systematic review identified multivariable models with biomedical and environmental predictors for medical usage rates at mass gatherings. Since the overall certainty of the evidence is low and the predictive performance is generally poor, proper development and validation of a context-specific model is recommended.

Healthcare seeking for chronic illness among adult slum dwellers in Bangladesh: A descriptive cross-sectional study in two urban settings

Introduction

Accompanying rapid urbanization in Bangladesh are inequities in health and healthcare which are most visibly manifested in slums or low-income settlements. This study examines socioeconomic, demographic and geographic patterns of self-reported chronic illness and healthcare seeking among adult slum dwellers in Bangladesh. Understanding these patterns is critical in designing more equitable urban health systems and in enabling the country’s goal of Universal Health Coverage by 2030.

Methods

This descriptive cross-sectional study compares survey data from slum settlements located in two urban sites in Bangladesh, Tongi and Sylhet. Reported chronic illness symptoms and associated healthcare-seeking strategies are compared, and the catastrophic impact of household healthcare expenditures are assessed.

Results

Significant differences in healthcare-seeking for chronic illness were apparent both within and between slum settlements related to sex, wealth score (PPI), and location. Women were more likely to use private clinics than men. Compared to poorer residents, those from wealthier households sought care to a greater extent in private clinics, while poorer households relied more on drug shops and public hospitals. Chronic symptoms also differed. A greater prevalence of musculoskeletal, respiratory, digestive and neurological symptoms was reported among those with lower PPIs. In both slum sites, reliance on the private healthcare market was widespread, but greater in industrialized Tongi. Tongi also experienced a higher probability of catastrophic expenditure than Sylhet.

Conclusions

Study results point to the value of understanding context-specific health-seeking patterns for chronic illness when designing delivery strategies to address the growing burden of NCDs in slum environments. Slums are complex social and geographic entities and cannot be generalized. Priority attention should be focused on developing chronic care services that meet the needs of the working poor in terms of proximity, opening hours, quality, and cost.

Exploring the Demand-Side Factors Associated with the Use of Implants in Kenya

We explore the demand-side factors associated with the use of implants in Kenya given the notable rapid increase in uptake of the method in the country. Data are from a longitudinal study conducted among married or cohabiting women aged 15-39 years at the time of recruitment in one rural (2,424 women) and one urban (2,812 women) site. Analysis entails descriptive statistics and estimation of multivariate logistic regression models. The results show that the key demand-side factors associated with the use of implants were low discontinuation of the method compared with alternatives and strong motivation on the part of the women for long-term spacing of births. However, implants had no perceived advantages over the main alternative methods in terms of beliefs about possible damage to health or unpleasant side effects or in terms of satisfaction with use. The findings suggest that addressing concerns about safety for long-term use and for health may increase demand for implants in particular and long-acting reversible contraceptives in general in the study settings or in similar contexts, especially among women who desire long-term spacing of births.

A Rapid Assessment Procedure to Develop A Non-Communicable Disease Prevention Pilot Health Communications Project Using E- and M-Health Communications in Pohnpei State, Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State of the Federated States of Micronesia, located in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, has limited health research infrastructure; chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD) such as diabetes, heart disease, and cancer are a concern. Over 73% of Pohnpei's population is overweight or obese. E- and m- (mobile) health interventions are becoming more popular in low and middle income countries. A Rapid Assessment Procedure was conducted for formative research to identify the enabling factors and challenges related to health communication and technology in Pohnpei to address NCD prevention. Thirty-seven local stakeholders were identified through snowball sampling for interviews and group discussions about e-health readiness and NCD priorities, held in local settings. Interviews were audio recorded, with field notes taken. Data were iteratively coded using DEDOOSE. Diabetes emerged as the most serious NCD issue because both the health system and local community are having to deal with the complications and consequences. Stakeholders recommended that prevention should be integrated with diabetes treatment. Local health workers' teaching evidence-based diabetes prevention and other health promotion education were through handheld (mobile devices) was identified. The ability to readily access evidence-based health education materials and modules is compatible with community approaches providing tailored, individual and small group education and social support. This approach may serve as a key component of local NCD prevention communications initiatives integral to prevent diabetes and its complications as remote Small Island Nations face burgeoning NCD epidemics and dramatic shifts in diet and activity.

Population ageing and mortality during 1990-2017: A global decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

As the number of older people globally increases, health systems need to be reformed to meet the growing need for medical resources. A few previous studies reported varying health impacts of population ageing, but they focused only on limited countries and diseases. We comprehensively quantify the impact of population ageing on mortality for 195 countries/territories and 169 causes of death.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), this study derived the total number of deaths and population size for each year from 1990 to 2017. A decomposition method was used to attribute changes in total deaths to population growth, population ageing, and mortality change between 1990 and each subsequent year from 1991 through 2017, for 195 countries/territories and for countries grouped by World Bank economic development level. For countries with increases in deaths related to population ageing, we calculated the ratio of deaths attributed to mortality change to those attributed to population ageing. The proportion of people aged 65 years and older increased globally from 6.1% to 8.8%, and the number of global deaths increased by 9 million, between 1990 and 2017. Compared to 1990, 12 million additional global deaths in 2017 were associated with population ageing, corresponding to 27.9% of total global deaths. Population ageing was associated with increases in deaths in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries but not in low-income countries. The proportions of deaths attributed to population ageing in 195 countries/territories ranged from -43.9% to 117.4% for males and -30.1% to 153.5% for females. The 2 largest contributions of population ageing to disease-specific deaths globally between 1990 and 2017 were for ischemic heart disease (3.2 million) and stroke (2.2 million). Population ageing was related to increases in deaths in 152 countries for males and 159 countries for females, and decreases in deaths in 43 countries for males and 36 countries for females, between 1990 and 2017. The decreases in deaths attributed to mortality change from 1990 to 2017 were more than the increases in deaths related to population ageing for the whole world, as well as in 55.3% (84/152) of countries for males and 47.8% (76/159) of countries for females where population ageing was associated with increased death burden. As the GBD 2017 does not provide variances in the estimated death numbers, we were not able to quantify uncertainty in our attribution estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that population ageing was associated with substantial changes in numbers of deaths between 1990 and 2017, but the attributed proportion of deaths varied widely across country income levels, countries, and causes of death. Specific preventive and therapeutic techniques should be implemented in different countries and territories to address the growing health needs related to population ageing, especially targeting the diseases associated with the largest increase in number of deaths in the elderly.

Evaluation of a National Care Coordination Program to Reduce Utilization Among High-cost, High-need Medicaid Beneficiaries With Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Medical, behavioral, and social determinants of health are each associated with high levels of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate a care coordination program designed to provide combined "whole-person care," integrating medical, behavioral, and social support for high-cost, high-need Medicaid beneficiaries by targeting access barriers and social determinants.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Individual-level interrupted time series with a comparator group, using person-month as the unit of analysis.

SUBJECTS

A total of 42,214 UnitedHealthcare Medicaid beneficiaries (194,834 person-months) age 21 years or above with diabetes, with Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, Medicaid expansion, Supplemental Security Income without Medicare, or dual Medicaid/Medicare.

MEASURES

Our outcome measures were any hospitalizations and any ED visits in a given month. Covariates of interest included an indicator for intervention versus comparator group and indicator and spline variables measuring changes in an outcome's time trend after program enrollment.

RESULTS

Overall, 6 of the 8 examined comparisons were not statistically significant. Among Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries, we observed a larger projected decrease in ED visit risk among the intervention sample versus the comparator sample at 12 months postenrollment (difference-in-difference: -6.6%; 95% confidence interval: -11.2%, -2.1%). Among expansion beneficiaries, we observed a greater decrease in hospitalization risk among the intervention sample versus the comparator sample at 12 months postenrollment (difference-in-difference: -5.8%; 95% confidence interval: -11.4%, -0.2%).

CONCLUSION

A care coordination program designed to reduce utilization among high-cost, high-need Medicaid beneficiaries was associated with fewer ED visits and hospitalizations for patients with diabetes in selected Medicaid programs but not others.

Pediatric televisits and telephone triage: impact on use of a hospital emergency department

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the characteristics of remote telephone consultations (televisits) and triage of pediatric emergencies attended by the 24-hour emergency service of Catalonia (CatSalut Respon), and to describe the impact of televisits on callers' decisions about whether or not to come to the emergency department and their opinion of the call service.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Observational cross-sectional study. During the call, cases were classified according the Spanish and Andorran triage system. Patients who were sent to the hospital underwent triage again, and the 2 assigned triage levels were compared. The families were later called to check data and ask their opinion of the service. Sociodemographic and clinical data related to the cases were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 370 televisits were made. Most cases (300, 81%) were not emergencies. Seventy-five callers (20.3%) were advised to go to an emergency department. Fever (P = .002) and questions about medication (P < .001) were the problems significantly associated with nonurgent cases. Nearly 46% of the cases classified as serious during telephone triage were also considered serious when the child was brought to the emergency department. The rate of agreement between the 2 triage levels was moderate. Over half the parents stated they had intended to go to the hospital before calling the service; 46% changed their mind based on the call.

CONCLUSION

Fever and questions about medication were significantly associated with televisits for nonurgent cases. Nearly half the parents changed their mind about going to the emergency department after a televisit.

Patient-initiated emergency department visits without primary care follow-up: frequency and characteristics

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the volume of patient-initiated visits to the emergency department without follow-up by a primary care physician, and to identify factors related to this practice.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospective, observational study of patients attended in a tertiary care hospital emergency department. We used a cluster/systematic sampling method to select 0.05% of the episodes discharged home every month. The following data were extracted: demographic variables, care times, prior primary care for the same episode, triage level, diagnosis, cost of prescriptions on discharge, instructions for follow-up, and adherence to those instructions. Associations were explored using multivariate logistic regression modelling.

RESULTS

A total of 1277 episodes were analyzed; 48.1% were patient-initiated visits without primary care follow-up. These visits were associated with the following variables: young patients (P = .002) without prior primary care (odds ratio [OR], 1.74; 95% CI, 1.34-2.28); visits between 10 PM and 4 AM (OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.55-3.80); triage level 4-5 (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.04-1.69); ophthalmologic emergency (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.12-2.41); a prescription cost of less than €3 (OR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.87-3.06); and instruction to seek follow-up on discharge (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.37-2.65).

CONCLUSION

Half of patients who independently seek care from the emergency department and are discharged home do not later seek care at their primary care clinic. The emergency physician should insist on the importance of ongoing primary care.

Confidential, accessible point-of-care sexual health services to support the participation of key populations in biobehavioural surveys: Lessons for Papua New Guinea and other settings where reach of key populations is limited

To achieve the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets at a national level, many countries must accelerate service coverage among key populations. To do this, key population programs have adopted methods similar to those used in respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to expand reach. A deeper understanding of factors from RDS surveys that enhance health service engagement can improve key population programs. To understand the in-depth lives of key populations, acceptance of expanded point-of-care biological testing and determine drivers of participation in RDS surveys, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 111 key population participants (12-65 years) were purposefully selected from six biobehavioral surveys (BBS) in three cities in Papua New Guinea. Key populations were female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and transgender women. Four reasons motivated individuals to participate in the BBS: peer referrals; private, confidential, and stigma-free study facilities; "one-stop shop" services that provided multiple tests and with same-day results, sexually transmitted infection treatment, and referrals; and the desire to know ones' health status. Biobehavioral surveys, and programs offering key population services can incorporate the approach we used to facilitate key population engagement in the HIV cascade.

Australian Suicide Prevention using Health-Linked Data (ASHLi): Protocol for a population-based case series study

INTRODUCTION

In Australia, suicide is the leading cause of death for people aged 15-44 years. Health professionals deliver most of our key suicide prevention strategies via health services, but other efficacious population-level strategies include means restriction and public awareness campaigns. Currently, we have no population-level data allowing us to determine which individuals, in what parts of Australia, are likely to use our most promising interventions delivered by health services. The aims of this study are to describe: (1) health service utilisation rates in the year prior to death by suicide, and how this varies by individual case characteristics; (2) prescribed medicines use in the year prior to death by suicide, medicines used in suicide by poisoning and how this varies by individual case characteristics.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a population-based case series study of all suicide cases in Australia identified through the National Coronial Information System (NCIS) from 2013 to 2019. Cases will be linked to administrative claims data detailing health service use and medicines dispensed in the year before death. We will also obtain findings from the coronial enquiry, including toxicology. Descriptive statistics will be produced to characterise health service and prescribed medicine use and how utilisation varies by age, sex, method of death and socioeconomic status. We will explore the geographical variability of health service and medicine use, highlighting regions in Australia associated with more limited access.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This project involves the use of sensitive and confidential data. Data will be linked using a third-party privacy-preserving protocol meaning that investigators will not have access to identifiable information once the data have been linked. Statistical analyses will be carried out in a secure environment. This study has been approved by the following ethics committees: (1) the Justice Department Human Research Ethics Committee (REF: CF/17/23250), (2) the Western Australian Coroners Court (REF: EC 14/18 M0400), (3) the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (REF: EO2017/4/366) and (4) NSW Population & Health Services Research Ethics Committee (REF: 2017/HRE1204). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences and communicated to regulatory authorities, clinicians and policy-makers.

Cancer burden of major cancers in China: A need for sustainable actions

Cancer is still a major health problem in China although numerous efforts have been made for its prevention and control. Findings from this study showed that lung cancer remains the most common type of cancer diagnosed, and was attributed to nearly 30% of all cancer-related deaths. The incidence of the five most common cancers, in China, in 2015, including cancers of the lungs, stomach, colorectum, liver and breast, accounted for almost 60% of all cancers diagnosed. The high cancer burden in China highlights the need for further improvement in health education, professional training and the building up an anti-cancer network for introducing and implementing sustainable actions for cancer control.

Influence of metabolic profiles on the safety of drug therapy in routine care in Germany: protocol of the cohort study EMPAR

INTRODUCTION

Pre-emptive testing of pharmacogenetically relevant single-nucleotide polymorphisms can be an effective tool in the prevention of adverse drug reactions and therapy resistance. However, most of the tests are not used as standard in routine care in Germany because of lacking evidence for the clinical and economical benefit and their impact on the usage of healthcare services. We address this issue by investigating the influence of pharmacogenetic profiles on the use of healthcare services over an extended period of several years using routine care data from a statutory health insurance company. The goal is to provide clinical evidence whether pre-emptive pharmacogenetic testing of metabolic profiles in routine care in Germany is beneficial and cost-effective.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The EMPAR (Einfluss metabolischer Profile auf die Arzneimitteltherapiesicherheit in der Routineversorgung) study is a non-interventional cohort study conducted to analyse pharmacogenetic risk factors that are important for drug therapy by means of endpoints relevant for healthcare. The analysis is based on pharmacogenetic profiles and statutory health insurance data. We perform pharmacogenetic, pharmacoepidemiological and pharmacoeconomic analyses using health care utilisation scores and machine learning techniques. Therefore, we aim to include about 10 000 patients (≥18 years) insured by the health insurance provider Techniker Krankenkasse. The study focuses on patients with prescriptions of anticoagulants and prescriptions of cholesterol-lowering drugs. Also, a screening for special pharmacogenetic characteristics will be performed in patients with at least one Y57.9! diagnosis (Complication of medical and surgical care: drug or medicament, unspecified). Outcomes include the utilisation of health insurance services, the incidence of incapacity for work and costs for drugs and treatment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty, University of Bonn (Lfd. Nr. 339/17). The results of this research project will be published in scientific open access journals and at conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

German Clinical Trials Register, DRKS00013909.

Reducing medicine-induced deterioration and adverse reactions (ReMInDAR) trial: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial in residential aged-care facilities assessing frailty as the primary outcome

INTRODUCTION

Many medicines have adverse effects which are difficult to detect and frequently go unrecognised. Pharmacist monitoring of changes in signs and symptoms of these adverse effects, which we describe as medicine-induced deterioration, may reduce the risk of developing frailty. The aim of this trial is to determine the effectiveness of a 12-month pharmacist service compared with usual care in reducing medicine-induced deterioration, frailty and adverse reactions in older people living in aged-care facilities in Australia.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The reducing medicine-induced deterioration and adverse reactions trial is a multicentre, open-label randomised controlled trial. Participants will be recruited from 39 facilities in South Australia and Tasmania. Residents will be included if they are using four or more medicines at the time of recruitment, or taking more than one medicine with anticholinergic or sedative properties. The intervention group will receive a pharmacist assessment which occurs every 8 weeks. The pharmacists will liaise with the participants' general practitioners when medicine-induced deterioration is evident or adverse events are considered serious. The primary outcome is a reduction in medicine-induced deterioration from baseline to 6 and 12 months, as measured by change in frailty index. The secondary outcomes are changes in cognition scores, 24-hour movement behaviour, grip strength, weight, percentage robust, pre-frail and frail classification, rate of adverse medicine events, health-related quality of life and health resource use. The statistical analysis will use mixed-models adjusted for baseline to account for repeated outcome measures. A health economic evaluation will be conducted following trial completion using data collected during the trial.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approvals have been obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committee of University of South Australia (ID:0000036440) and University of Tasmania (ID:H0017022). A copy of the final report will be provided to the Australian Government Department of Health.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Australian and New Zealand Trials Registry ACTRN12618000766213.

Individual and community-level factors associated with unmet need for contraception among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia; a multi-level analysis of 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on the unmet need for contraceptives among married reproductive-age women especially in developing countries like Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to assess individual and community-level factors associated with unmet need for contraception among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia.

METHOD

A secondary analysis was done on the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) dataset which were collected cross-sectional. A total of 9056 women who were fecund, married and/or sexually active were included in the analysis. Multi-level mixed-effect logistic regression analysis was done by STATA version 14.0 to identify individual and community-level factors. Adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was used to show the strength and direction of the association and statistical significance was declared at P value less than 0.05.

RESULT

Factors significantly associated with unmet need were; ages of women between 45 and 49 years [AOR = 2.25, 95% CI: (1.34, 3.79)], greater than or equal to three living children [AOR = 1.87, 95% CI: (1.40, 2.49)], belong to richer household [AOR = 0.73, 95% CI: (0.54, 0.97)], Muslim followers [AOR = 1.37, 95% CI: (1.02, 1.83)], married more than once [AOR = 1.31, 95% CI: (1.06, 1.62)]. From community level variables: belong to the Somali region [AOR = 0.34, 95% CI: (0.19, 0.61)] were significantly associated with unmet need.

CONCLUSION

Both individual and community-level factors were significant determinants of unmet need. From individual-level factors: advanced ages of women, many total numbers of living children, live in the richer wealth quintile, being Muslim follower and married more than once and from community-level variables: belong to the Somali region were significantly associated with unmet need for contraception. The findings suggested that health care providers should mainly focus on women nearly on menopauses, who live in the poorest household and who had many numbers of living children and married more than once to decrease the unmet need for contraceptives.

Regional variations in geographic access to inpatient hospices and Place of death: A Population-based study in England, UK

Background

There is much variation in hospice use with respect to geographic factors such as area-based deprivation, location of patient’s residence and proximity to services location. However, little is known about how the association between geographic access to inpatient hospice and hospice deaths varies by patients’ region of settlement.

Study aim

To examine regional differences in the association between geographic access to inpatient hospice and hospice deaths.

Methods

A regional population-based observational study in England, UK. Records of patients aged ≥ 25 years (n = 123088) who died from non-accidental causes in 2014, were extracted from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death registry. Our cohort comprised of patients who died at home and in inpatient hospice. Decedents were allocated to each of the nine government office regions of England (London, East Midlands, West Midlands, East, Yorkshire and The Humber, South West, South East, North West and North East) through record linkage with their postcode of usual residence. We defined geographic access as a measure of drive times from patients’ residential location to the nearest inpatient hospice. A modified Poisson regression estimated the association between geographic access to hospice, comparing hospice deaths (1) versus home deaths (0). We developed nine regional specific models and adjusted for regional differences in patient’s clinical & socio-demographic characteristics. The strength of the association was estimated with adjusted Proportional Ratios (aPRs).

Findings

The percentage of deaths varied across regions (home: 86.7% in the North East to 73.0% in the South East; hospice: 13.3% in the North East to 27.0% in the South East). We found wide differences in geographic access to inpatient hospices across regions. Median drive times to hospice varied from 4.6 minutes in London to 25.9 minutes in the North East. We found a dose-response association in the East: (aPRs: 0.22–0.78); East Midlands: (aPRs: 0.33–0.63); North East (aPRs: 0.19–0.87); North West (aPRs: 0.69–0.88); South West (aPRs: 0.56–0.89) and West Midlands (aPRs: 0.28–0.92) indicating that decedents who lived further away from hospices locations (≥ 10 minutes) were less likely to die in a hospice.

Conclusion

The clear dose-response associations in six regions underscore the importance of regional specific initiatives to improve and optimise access to hospices. Commissioners and policymakers need to do more to ensure that home death is not due to limited geographic access to inpatient hospice care.

Unmet Health Care Needs for Syrian Refugees in Canada: A Follow-up Study

Unmet health care needs are under explored among refugees. Previously we found unmet health care needs in Syrian refugees may be higher than in the general Canadian population (Oda et al. CMAJ Open 5(2):E354-E358, 2017; Oda et al. J Immigr Minor Health, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10903-018-0780-z). This follow-up study with Syrian refugees who entered Canada between July 2015 and July 2016 aimed to understand if there are changes in unmet health care needs 6 months to a year after baseline collection. The number reporting unmet needs was high (42.6%). Although some refugees had their needs met, unmet health needs persist, and it seems that they are linked with sponsorship pathway and post-migration socio-economic position. While caution should be used generalizing these results, they do suggest that greater coordination between services may be needed as many of the refugees report unmet needs within months of arriving and continue to report needs after being here for a period up to 2 years.

Trauma Care in India: Capacity Assessment Survey From Five Centers

BACKGROUND

India is in the process of strengthening the trauma care system, and assessment of the current situation using standard guidelines has immense use. This study reports the status of trauma care facilities in India, with a broad framework of guidelines for essential trauma care by the World Health Organization.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study is part of a multicentric intervention study to standardize structured trauma care services in five Indian cities. Thirty trauma care facilities (five level I, 10 level II, and 15 level III facilities) were included. Data on the availability of equipment and manpower were collected. Availability of knowledge + skills and equipment + supplies was assessed based on the guidelines for essential trauma care by World Health Organization.

RESULTS

There is almost 100% availability of services and equipment in level I hospitals, but availability varied between 50% and 100% at level II facilities. Very fewer number of services are available at level III facilities. Inadequacy of equipment is reported in level II and III facilities. Only level I facilities have required human resources. Availability of resources in terms of knowledge and equipment of different skills indicated that overall optimal level is observed in level I hospitals. Level II facilities are more deficient in nursing and paramedic staff, and level III facilities reported deficiencies in all categories.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant imbalance between recommended resources and the resources that are available in the trauma care facilities was noted. Hence, the study warrants urgent strengthening of trauma care facilities, particularly of level II and III facilities.

Patient-initiated appointment systems for adults with chronic conditions in secondary care

BACKGROUND

Missed hospital outpatient appointments is a commonly reported problem in healthcare services around the world; for example, they cost the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK millions of pounds every year and can cause operation and scheduling difficulties worldwide. In 2002, the World Health Organization (WHO) published a report highlighting the need for a model of care that more readily meets the needs of people with chronic conditions. Patient-initiated appointment systems may be able to meet this need at the same time as improving the efficiency of hospital appointments.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of patient-initiated appointment systems compared with consultant-led appointment systems for people with chronic or recurrent conditions managed in secondary care.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, and six other databases. We contacted authors of identified studies and conducted backwards and forwards citation searching. We searched for current/ongoing research in two trial registers. Searches were run on 13 March 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised trials, published and unpublished in any language that compared the use of patient-initiated appointment systems to consultant-led appointment systems for adults with chronic or recurrent conditions managed in secondary care if they reported one or more of the following outcomes: physical measures of health status or disease activity (including harms), quality of life, service utilisation or cost, adverse effects, patient or clinician satisfaction, or failures of the 'system'.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened all references at title/abstract stage and full-text stage using prespecified inclusion criteria. We resolved disagreements though discussion. Two review authors independently completed data extraction for all included studies. We discussed and resolved discrepancies with a third review author. Where needed, we contacted authors of included papers to provide more information. Two review authors independently assessed the risk of bias using the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care 'Risk of bias' tool, resolving any discrepancies with a third review author. Two review authors independently assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

The 17 included randomised trials (3854 participants; mean age 41 to 76 years; follow-up 12 to 72 months) covered six broad health conditions: cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease. The certainty of the evidence using GRADE ratings was mainly low to very low. The results suggest that patient-initiated clinics may make little or no difference to anxiety (odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 1.12; 5 studies, 1019 participants; low-certainty evidence) or depression (OR 0.79 95% CI 0.51 to 1.23; 6 studies, 1835 participants; low-certainty evidence) compared to the consultant-led appointment system. The results also suggest that patient-initiated clinics may make little or no difference to quality of life (standardised mean difference (SMD) 0.12, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.25; 7 studies, 1486 participants; low-certainty evidence) compared to the consultant-led appointment system. Results for service utilisation (contacts) suggest there may be little or no difference in service utilisation in terms of contacts between the patient-initiated and consultant-led appointment groups; however, the effect is not certain as the rate ratio ranged from 0.68 to 3.83 across the studies (median rate ratio 1.11, interquartile (IQR) 0.93 to 1.37; 15 studies, 3348 participants; low-certainty evidence). It is uncertain if service utilisation (costs) are reduced in the patient-initiated compared to the consultant-led appointment groups (8 studies, 2235 participants; very low-certainty evidence). The results suggest that adverse events such as relapses in some conditions (inflammatory bowel disease and cancer) may have little or no reduction in the patient-initiated appointment group in comparison with the consultant-led appointment group (MD -0.20, 95% CI -0.54 to 0.14; 3 studies, 888 participants; low-certainty evidence). The results are unclear about any differences the intervention may make to patient satisfaction (SMD 0.05, 95% CI -0.41 to 0.52; 2 studies, 375 participants) because the certainty of the evidence is low, as each study used different questions to collect their data at different time points and across different health conditions. Some areas of risk of bias across all the included studies was consistently high (i.e. for blinding of participants and personnel and blinding of outcome assessment, other areas were largely of low risk of bias or were affected by poor reporting making the assessment unclear).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Patient-initiated appointment systems may have little or no effect on patient anxiety, depression and quality of life compared to consultant-led appointment systems. Other aspects of disease status and experience also appear to show little or no difference between patient-initiated and consultant-led appointment systems. Patient-initiated appointment systems may have little or no effect on service utilisation in terms of service contact and there is uncertainty about costs compared to consultant-led appointment systems. Patient-initiated appointment systems may have little or no effect on adverse events such as relapse or patient satisfaction compared to consultant-led appointment systems.

Time protective effect of contact with a general practitioner and its association with diabetes-related hospitalisations: a cohort study using the 45 and Up Study data in Australia

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the relationship between the proportion of time under the potentially protective effect of a general practitioner (GP) captured using the Cover Index and diabetes-related hospitalisation and length of stay (LOS).

DESIGN

An observational cohort study over two 3-year time periods (2009/2010-2011/2012 as the baseline and 2012/2013-2014/2015 as the follow-up).

SETTING

Linked self-report and administrative health service data at individual level from the 45 and Up Study in New South Wales, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 21 965 individuals aged 45 years and older identified with diabetes before July 2009 were included in this study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Diabetes-related hospitalisation, unplanned diabetes-related hospitalisation and LOS of diabetes-related hospitalisation and unplanned diabetes-related hospitalisation.

METHODS

The average annual GP cover index over a 3-year period was calculated using information obtained from Australian Medicare and hospitalisation. The effect of exposure to different levels of the cover on the main outcomes was estimated using negative binomial models weighted for inverse probability of treatment weight to control for observed covariate imbalance at the baseline period.

RESULTS

Perfect GP cover was observed among 53% of people with diabetes in the study cohort. Compared with perfect level of GP cover, having lower levels of GP cover including high (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.8, 95% CI 2.6 to 3.0), medium (IRR 3.2, 95% CI 2.7 to 3.8) and low (IRR 3.1, 95% CI 2.0 to 4.9) were significantly associated with higher number of diabetes-related hospitalisation. Similar association was observed between the different levels of GP cover and other outcomes including LOS for diabetes-related hospitalisation, unplanned diabetes-related hospitalisation and LOS for unplanned diabetes-related hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS

Measuring longitudinal continuity in terms of time under cover of GP care may offer opportunities to optimise the performance of primary healthcare and reduce secondary care costs in the management of diabetes.

Trends in sexual activity and demand for and use of modern contraceptive methods in 74 countries: a retrospective analysis of nationally representative surveys

BACKGROUND

A quarter of a century ago, two global events-the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, and the Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing-placed gender equality and reproductive health and rights at the centre of the development agenda. Progress towards these goals has been slower than hoped. We used survey data and national-level indicators of social determinants from 74 countries to examine change in satisfaction of contraceptive need from a contextual perspective.

METHODS

We searched for individual-level data from repeated nationally representative surveys that included information on sexual and reproductive health, and created a single dataset by harmonising data from each survey to a standard data specification. We described the relative timings of sexual initiation, first union (cohabitation or marriage), and first birth and used logistic regression to show the change in prevalence of sexual activity, demand for contraception, and modern contraceptive use. We used linear regression to examine country-level associations between the gender development index and the expected length of time in education for women and the three outcomes: sexual activity, demand for contraception, and modern contraceptive use. We used principal component analysis to describe countries using a combination of social-structural and behavioural indicators and assessed how well the components explained country-level variation in the proportion of women using contraception with fractional logistic regression.

FINDINGS

In 34 of the 74 countries examined, proportions of all women who were sexually active, not wanting to conceive, and not using a modern contraceptive method decreased over time. Proportions of women who had been sexually active in the past year changed over time in 43 countries, with increases in 30 countries; demand for contraception increased in 42 countries, and use of a modern method of contraception increased in 37 countries. Increases over time in met need for contraception were correlated with increases in gender equality and with women's time in education. Regression analysis on the principal components showed that country-level variation in met contraceptive need was largely explained by a single component that combined behavioural and social-contextual variables.

INTERPRETATION

Progress towards satisfying demand for contraception should take account of the changing context in which it is practised. To remove the remaining barriers, policy responses-and therefore research priorities-could require a stronger focus on social-structural determinants and broader aspects of sexual health.

FUNDING

UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

Individualized Family-Centered Developmental Care: An Essential Model to Address the Unique Needs of Infants With Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

Infants born with critical congenital heart disease (cCHD) who require surgical intervention in the newborn period are often hospitalized in a cardiac intensive care unit (CICU). Cardiac surgery and the CICU environment are traumatic to infants and their families. Infants are exposed to overwhelming stress, which can result in increased pain, physiologic instability, behavioral disorganization, disrupted attachment, and altered brain development. Individualized Family-centered Developmental Care (IFDC) is a model that can address the unique needs and developmental challenges of infants with cCHD.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this article is to (1) clearly describe the uniqueness of the infant with cCHD, including the medical, neurological, and parental challenges, and (2) propose methods to apply IFDC to support recovery of infants with cCHD in the CICU.

CONCLUSIONS

The experiences in the CICU shape the developing brain and alter recovery and healing, thus adversely impacting development. Individualized Family-centered Developmental Care is a promising model of care that nurses can integrate into the CICU to promote neuroprotection and development. Nurses can effectively integrate IFDC into the CICU by understanding the unique characteristics of infants with cCHD and applying IFDC interventions that include both maturity and recovery perspectives.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

The incorporation of IFDC interventions is essential for the infant with cCHD and should be a standard of care. Applying IFDC with a recovery perspective in all aspects of caregiving will provide opportunities for individualization of care and parent engagement, allowing infants in the CICU to recover from surgery while supporting both short- and long-term neurodevelopment.

Prevalence and determinants of modern contraceptive utilization among women in the reproductive age group in Edaga-hamus Town, Eastern zone, Tigray region, Ethiopia, June 2017

Introduction

All individuals and couples have a basic human right to decide freely and responsibly the number, spacing, and timing of their child. However, In Ethiopia, the prevalence of contraceptive utilization remains low and it varies in different regions. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine prevalence and determinant factors affecting the utilization of modern contraception in the reproductive age group (15–49 years) in Edaga-Hamus Town.

Methodology

A community based Cross-Sectional study was carried out on April 23 to May 10, 2017. A systemic random sampling method was used to select study participants. Information was collected using a structured, pre-tested questionnaire. The data were entered into EPI-info version 7.1 and imported to SPSS version 20. Summary statistics and logistic regression analysis were performed using SPSS version 20. Those variables having a P-value of less than 0.2 in the bivariable analysis were fitted in multivariable analysis. AOR with 95% CI and P-value<0.05 were used during multivariable analysis to identify the factors associated with the utilization of modern in reproductive.

Result

In this study the overall prevalence of modern contraceptive utilization was 58.5%. Age (AOR = 0.406,95%,Cl: (0.000,0.398)), Educational status (AOR = 0.901,95% Cl (0.340,4.107)), Feeling of husband towards Modern contraceptive (AOR = 0.186, 95% CI (0.056,0.617) had protective effect of utilization of modern contraceptive. But Number of children 1–3 and 4–5 wanted(AOR = 10.802,95%(4.027,28.975)), AOR = 2.624,95% CI (1.437,4.791), was a risk for utilization of modern contraceptive.

Conclusion and recommendation

The prevalence of Modern contraceptive utilization was still to be low (far below the national target). Therefore, providing educational opportunities, creating awareness about contraception and effective counseling would increase modern contraceptive methods utilization.

Burden of eye disease and demand for care in the Bangladesh Rohingya displaced population and host community: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is a growing awareness that addressing chronic as well as acute health conditions may contribute importantly to the well-being of displaced populations, but eye care service has generally not been prioritized in crisis situations. We describe a replicable model of eye care provision as delivered by Orbis International and local partners to the Rohingya and host population in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, and characterize the burden of vision impairment and demand for sight-restoring services in this setting.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Orbis International and local secondary facility Cox's Bazar Baitush Sharaf Hospital (CBBSH) provide eye care support to the Rohingya population and the host community of all ages in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, with fixed vision screening locations established in Camps 4 and 11 of the Kutupalong refugee settlement. Structured outreach targets these camps and four surrounding local subdistricts, with referrals made as needed for refraction (glasses measurement) and cataract surgery to CBBSH. Between February 2018 and March 2019, 48,105 displaced Rohingya (70.3%, among whom 71.6% were children and 46.5% women) and 20,357 local residents (29.7%, 88.5% children, 54.4% women) underwent vision screening. Displaced Rohingya sought services from a total of 12 surrounding camps, within which coverage was 17.3%, including 43.3% (27,027/62,424) of children aged 5-11 years and 60.0% (5,315/8,857) of adults ≥ 60 years old. The prevalence of blindness (presenting acuity < 3/60) among Rohingya patients exceeded that among local residents by 3- to 6-fold in each 10-year age group between 18 and 59 years (P < 0.001 comparing vision between the two groups in this age range), and the prevalence of cataract requiring surgery was also higher in Rohingya patients (18-29 years: 4.67% versus 1.80%, P = 0.0019; 30-39: 7.61% versus 2.39%, P < 0.001; and 40-49 years: 7.91% versus 3.77%, P = 0.0014). A limitation of the study is lack of data on population prevalence of eye disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of untreated eye disease is very high among the Rohingya, particularly those in their peak working years who could contribute most to the resiliency of their community. Demand for eye care service is also great among children and adults in this population with many competing healthcare priorities. Research is needed, building on strong evidence of benefit in settled populations, to explore the specific impact of vision care on the well-being of displaced populations.

Exploring changing needs following minor stroke

Medical advances have led to many of the severe consequences of stroke being averted. Consequently, more people are being discharged from hospital following treatment for what is classed as minor stroke. The needs of people with minor stroke have received little research attention. The aim of the current study was to conduct an exploratory prospective needs analysis to document the unmet health, rehabilitation and psychosocial needs of a recently hospitalised minor stroke cohort approximately 2 weeks (T1) and 2 months (T2) post-hospital discharge. An exploratory cohort design was used to explore the unmet health, service and social needs of 20 patients with minor stroke. Participants completed questionnaires (Survey of Unmet Needs and Service Use, Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory-4, Exeter Identity Transition Scales, RAND 36-Item Health Survey 1.0) at T1 and T2. Nine participants reported unmet needs at T1 and seven participants reported unmet needs at T2. Between T1 and T2, there was a significant improvement in perceived role limitations due to physical health. Participation in society was significantly better at T2. In conclusion, patients with minor stroke report health, service and social needs that are unmet by existing services. This patient cohort urgently requires co-ordinated services to detect and manage these unmet needs.

Valuing whole complex lives: Young adults' experiences of recovery-related principles in mental healthcare in the United States

One in five young adults (aged 18-25 years) in the United States experiences a past year mental disorder, commonly including depression or anxiety. Yet, 1.5 million each year do not receive needed mental health services and are unlikely, in general, to seek formal mental healthcare. We aimed to inform the development of a novel programme for young adult mental health by first eliciting their positive and negative prior experiences with mental health providers. Four focus groups with 19 young adults (aged 19-26 years) recruited from the community and with moderate to severe depression and/or anxiety were conducted in 2018 in a western US state. Participants' prior experiences with services/providers were elicited along six pre-defined recovery-related concepts: feeling listened to and validated, inclusivity, full information and consent, hope and optimism, connectedness, and change. Focus groups were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and uploaded into NVivo version 12 software. Two independent coders used deductive thematic analysis to identify patterned responses. Feeling listened to and validated appeared as a cornerstone of other recovery concepts. Participants discussed past negative experiences with psychiatrists and regret for being put on medications in their teenage years without information or options. Hope and optimism were low because of a general focus by professionals to address immediate symptom-based issues, rather than on improving their overall lives. Service providers' focus on medication-taking, and other one-size-fits-all tools, was interpreted as lacking a sincere desire to help. Young adults were particularly sensitive to inauthentic interactions and superficial strategies, which left them craving care that incorporated their whole lives, acknowledged biopsychosocial interconnections and prioritised improving their lives over 'feeling better' in a given moment. Mental health providers should consider developing programmes that shift focus away from an exclusively medical understanding of distress and towards holistic, educational or relational approaches that value body, mind, self-exploration and authentic connection.

Reasons for unmet needs for health care: the role of social capital and social support in some western EU countries

This paper focuses on the demand side factors that determine access to health care and analyses the issues of unmet needs for health care and the reasons thereof in western EU countries. A probit model is estimated from a sample of the whole population, accounting for the possibility of individual selection in unmet needs for health care (UN) (selection equation). Expanded probit models (including the inverse Mills ratio) are then used on the reasons for unmet needs (RUN) with social capital and social support as determinants and using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions dataset from 2006. In the RUN equations, the findings show that females, large households, people with low income and financial constraints, the unemployed and those in poor health have a higher probability of declaring unmet needs due to economic costs. Additionally, people in tertiary education, those with high income and the employed have a higher probability of not visiting a doctor when needed due to time constraints. Furthermore, the frequency of contact with friends and the ability to ask for help are correlated with a lower probability of unmet needs due to economic costs, while the frequency of contact with relatives is correlated with a lower probability of unmet needs due to time constraints and distance. However, the ability to ask for help is also correlated with a higher probability of not having medical care due to time constraints and the wait-and-see approach.

Value of Information Analytical Methods: Report 2 of the ISPOR Value of Information Analysis Emerging Good Practices Task Force

The allocation of healthcare resources among competing priorities requires an assessment of the expected costs and health effects of investing resources in the activities and of the opportunity cost of the expenditure. To date, much effort has been devoted to assessing the expected costs and health effects, but there remains an important need to also reflect the consequences of uncertainty in resource allocation decisions and the value of further research to reduce uncertainty. Decision making with uncertainty may turn out to be suboptimal, resulting in health loss. Consequently, there may be value in reducing uncertainty, through the collection of new evidence, to better inform resource decisions. This value can be quantified using value of information (VOI) analysis. This report from the ISPOR VOI Task Force describes methods for computing 4 VOI measures: the expected value of perfect information, expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI), expected value of sample information (EVSI), and expected net benefit of sampling (ENBS). Several methods exist for computing EVPPI and EVSI, and this report provides guidance on selecting the most appropriate method based on the features of the decision problem. The report provides a number of recommendations for good practice when planning, undertaking, or reviewing VOI analyses. The software needed to compute VOI is discussed, and areas for future research are highlighted.

Caregiving tasks and unmet supportive care needs of family caregivers: A U.S. population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the type of care provided by a nationally-representative sample of informal caregivers, the frequency of unmet supportive care needs, and examine characteristics associated with unmet needs.

METHODS

Using data from the Health Information National Trends Survey, we identified caregivers of an adult care recipient. Descriptive statistics examined support provided by caregivers for activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and caregiver perceptions of their needs in five areas: medical/nursing tasks, accessing services, respite care, support groups, and counseling for caregivers. Bivariate statistics examined sociodemographic and caregiver characteristics associated with each need.

RESULTS

Among 316 caregivers, 30.9% reported at least one unmet supportive care need. Caregivers most often provided support for 0-2 ADLs and 5-7 IADLs. Younger age and longer duration of time caregiving were associated with unmet supportive care needs for medical/nursing training (p = 0.02 and 0.04, respectively). Caregivers providing assistance with more ADLs reported needs for respite care support (p=0.03).

CONCLUSION

Subgroups of caregivers that may be most vulnerable with greater unmet supportive care needs are those that are younger, have provided care for longer, and those assisting with more ADLs. Future research should explore these factors to inform intervention development.

Mental health selection: common mental disorder and migration between multiple states of deprivation in a UK cohort

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether the direction of movement along the social gradient was associated with changes in mental health status.

DESIGN

Longitudinal record-linkage study using a multistate model.

SETTING

Caerphilly, Wales, UK between 2001 and 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

The analytical sample included 10 892 (60.8% female) individuals aged 18-74 years.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Deprivation change at lower super output area level using the 2008 Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation. Mental health was assessed in 2001 and 2008 using the Mental Health Inventory subscale of the short-form 36 V.2.

RESULTS

Mental health selection was shown whereby individuals with common mental health disorders were less likely to move to areas of lower deprivation but more likely to move to areas of greater deprivation.

CONCLUSION

Poor mental health seems to drive health selection in a similar way to poor physical health. Therefore, funding targeted at areas of higher deprivation should consider the demand to be potentially higher as individuals with poor mental health may migrate into that area.

Estimating progress towards meeting women's contraceptive needs in 185 countries: A Bayesian hierarchical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Expanding access to contraception and ensuring that need for family planning is satisfied are essential for achieving universal access to reproductive healthcare services, as called for in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Monitoring progress towards these outcomes is well established for women of reproductive age (15-49 years) who are married or in a union (MWRA). For those who are not, limited data and variability in data sources and indicator definitions make monitoring challenging. To our knowledge, this study is the first to provide data and harmonised estimates that enable monitoring for all women of reproductive age (15-49 years) (WRA), including unmarried women (UWRA). We seek to quantify the gaps that remain in meeting family-planning needs among all WRA.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a systematic analysis, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of family-planning indicators among WRA from 1,247 nationally representative surveys. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model with country-specific time trends to estimate these indicators, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), for 185 countries. We produced estimates from 1990 to 2019 and projections from 2019 to 2030 of contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning among MWRA, UWRA, and all WRA, taking into account the changing proportions that were married or in a union. The model accounted for differences in the prevalence of sexual activity among UWRA across countries. Among 1.9 billion WRA in 2019, 1.11 billion (95% UI 1.07-1.16) have need for family planning; of those, 842 million (95% UI 800-893) use modern contraception, and 270 million (95% UI 246-301) have unmet need for modern methods. Globally, UWRA represented 15.7% (95% UI 13.4%-19.4%) of all modern contraceptive users and 16.0% (95% UI 12.9%-22.1%) of women with unmet need for modern methods in 2019. The proportion of the need for family planning satisfied by modern methods, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) indicator 3.7.1, was 75.7% (95% UI 73.2%-78.0%) globally, yet less than half of the need for family planning was met in Middle and Western Africa. Projections to 2030 indicate an increase in the number of women with need for family planning to 1.19 billion (95% UI 1.13-1.26) and in the number of women using modern contraception to 918 million (95% UI 840-1,001). The main limitations of the study are as follows: (i) the uncertainty surrounding estimates for countries with little or no data is large; and (ii) although some adjustments were made, underreporting of contraceptive use and needs is likely, especially among UWRA.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that large gaps remain in meeting family-planning needs. The projected increase in the number of women with need for family planning will create challenges to expand family-planning services fast enough to fulfil the growing need. Monitoring of family-planning indicators for all women, not just MWRA, is essential for accurately monitoring progress towards universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services-including family planning-by 2030 in the SDG era with its emphasis on 'leaving no one behind.'

Workforce predictive risk modelling: development of a model to identify general practices at risk of a supply-demand imbalance

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model identifying general practices at risk of workforce supply-demand imbalance.

DESIGN

This is a secondary analysis of routine data on general practice workforce, patient experience and registered populations (2012 to 2016), combined with a census of general practitioners' (GPs') career intentions (2016).

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

A hybrid approach was used to develop a model to predict workforce supply-demand imbalance based on practice factors using historical data (2012-2016) on all general practices in England (with over 1000 registered patients n=6398). The model was applied to current data (2016) to explore future risk for practices in South West England (n=368).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome was a practice being in a state of workforce supply-demand imbalance operationally defined as being in the lowest third nationally of access scores according to the General Practice Patient Survey and the highest third nationally according to list size per full-time equivalent GP (weighted to the demographic distribution of registered patients and adjusted for deprivation).

RESULTS

Based on historical data, the predictive model had fair to good discriminatory ability to predict which practices faced supply-demand imbalance (area under receiver operating characteristic curve=0.755). Predictions using current data suggested that, on average, practices at highest risk of future supply-demand imbalance are currently characterised by having larger patient lists, employing more nurses, serving more deprived and younger populations, and having considerably worse patient experience ratings when compared with other practices. Incorporating findings from a survey of GP's career intentions made little difference to predictions of future supply-demand risk status when compared with expected future workforce projections based only on routinely available data on GPs' gender and age.

CONCLUSIONS

It is possible to make reasonable predictions of an individual general practice's future risk of undersupply of GP workforce with respect to its patient population. However, the predictions are inherently limited by the data available.

Emergency healthcare needs in the Lavender Hill suburb of Cape Town, South Africa: a cross-sectional, community-based household survey

OBJECTIVE

Emergency care is a key component of healthcare systems, but little is known about its real impact on communities. This study evaluated access, utilisation and barriers to healthcare, and specifically emergency care, in the low socioeconomic Cape Town suburb of Lavender Hill.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional, community-based household survey.

SETTING

Lavender Hill suburb in the Cape Flats of Cape Town, South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Two-stage cluster sampling was used to identify approximately 13 households in each of 46 clusters, for a total of 608 households. A senior householder responded on behalf of each household surveyed.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Access to, utilisation of and unmet needs related to healthcare at large and emergency care.

RESULTS

In August 2018, 608 households were surveyed, encompassing 2754 individuals, with a response rate of 96.4%. Almost a quarter of respondents (n=663, 24.1%) used the healthcare system within the last year. Female gender, advancing age, lower levels of education, recipients of disability grants, smaller household sizes and living in formal dwellings were factors associated with increased risk of unmet healthcare and emergency care needs. Only a small proportion of respondents (n=39, 1.4%) reported having unmet emergency healthcare needs, with wait times at facilities (n=9, 23.1%), emergency medical service delays (n=7, 17.9%) and personal safety (n=6, 15.4%) being prominent. There was a high prevalence of chronic medical conditions (hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidaemias) and recent deaths predominantly from trauma and malignancy.

CONCLUSION

The emergency healthcare needs of the community appear to be well catered for, although community expectations may not be high and many barriers exist, particularly in accessing emergency care-be it via ambulance services or at healthcare facilities-and caring for chronic diseases in the ageing population. The Lavender Hill community could benefit from programmes addressing chronic disease management and emergency care delivery within the community.

Universal coverage but unmet need: National and regional estimates of attrition across the diabetes care continuum in Thailand

Background

Diabetes is a growing challenge in Thailand. Data to assess health system response to diabetes is scarce. We assessed what factors influence diabetes care cascade retention, under universal health coverage.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the 2014 Thai National Health Examination Survey. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥126mg/dL or on treatment. National and regional care cascades were constructed across screening, diagnosis, treatment, and control. Unmet need was defined as the total loss across cascade levels. Logistic regression was used to examine the demographic and healthcare factors associated with cascade attrition.

Findings

We included 15,663 individuals. Among Thai adults aged 20+ with diabetes, 67.0% (95% CI 60.9% to 73.1%) were screened, 34.0% (95% CI 30.6% to 37.2%) were diagnosed, 33.3% (95% CI 29.9% to 36.7%) were treated, and 26.0% (95% CI 22.9% to 29.1%) were controlled. Total unmet need was 74.0% (95% CI 70.9% to 77.1%), with regional variation ranging from 58.4% (95% CI 45.0% to 71.8%) in South to 78.0% (95% CI 73.0% to 83.0%) in Northeast. Multivariable models indicated older age (OR 1.76), males (OR 0.65), and a higher density of medical staff (OR 2.40) and health centers (OR 1.58) were significantly associated with being diagnosed among people with diabetes. Older age (OR 1.80) and higher geographical density of medical staff (OR 1.82) and health centers (OR 1.56) were significantly associated with being controlled.

Conclusions

Substantial attrition in the diabetes care continuum was observed at diabetes screening and diagnosis, related to both individual and health system factors. Even with universal health insurance, Thailand still needs effective behavioral and structural interventions, especially in primary health care settings, to address unmet need in diabetes care for its population.

The Willingness for Downward Referral and Its Influencing Factors: A Cross-Sectional Study among Older Adults in Shandong, China

Objectives: The aim of this study was to understand the willingness for downward referral among older adults who were hospitalized in the year before the survey and to explore its influencing factors. Methods: The sample was randomly selected by the multi-stage sampling method. A structural questionnaire was used to collect data from participants age 60 and above in Shandong, China, during August 2017. Data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA, chi-square test, and multinomial logistic regression. Results: Of 1198 participants who were hospitalized in the year before the survey, 28.7% self-initiated downward referral, and 33.9% were willing to accept downward referral after a doctor’s advice. Multinomial logistic regression results showed that self-rated health, treatment effect in primary medical institutions, preference for outpatient service, choice of inpatient service, general understanding of essential medicines, the cost of essential medicines after zero-markup policy, and satisfaction with essential medicines’ reimbursement policy significantly correlated with older adults’ willingness for downward referral. Conclusions: The proportion of older adults who self-initiated downward referral was less than one-third. Doctors’ advice plays an important role in willingness for downward referral. More attention should be paid to improving the treatment effect of primary medical institutions, increasing the benefits of zero-markup policy, and ensuring a high reimbursement for the downward referral to work alongside doctors’ advice.

Workforce Issues in Pediatric Ophthalmology

The fate of pediatric ophthalmology may be in jeopardy. For the past 20 years, there has been declining interest in the field compared to other subspecialties in ophthalmology, as fellowship positions and jobs remain unfilled. Of those fellows who do match in pediatric ophthalmology and strabismus, many are international medical graduates who often return to their native countries to practice, further diminishing the supply of pediatric ophthalmologists in the United States. In previous surveys, resident graduates have expressed disinterest in the field, reluctance to work with children, inadequate reimbursements, and insufficient interactions with faculty as reasons not to pursue this subspecialty. Millions of people throughout the United States do not have access to pediatric ophthalmologists, highlighting the issue of unequal distribution. As more pediatric ophthalmologists retire, there is concern that there will not be enough providers to meet the demands of this subspecialty. Although many of these factors deterring residents from entering this field have been resolved, the major issue of financial reimbursements has not been adequately addressed. [J Pediatr Ophthalmol Strabismus. 2020;57(1):9-11.].

Homeless persons' experiences of health- and social care: A systematic integrative review

Homelessness is associated with high risks of morbidity and premature death. Many interventions aimed to improve physical and mental health exist, but do not reach the population of persons experiencing homelessness. Despite the widely reported unmet healthcare needs, more information about the barriers and facilitators that affect access to care for persons experiencing homelessness is needed. A systematic integrative review was performed to explore experiences and needs of health- and social care for persons experiencing homelessness. The following databases were searched: AMED, ASSIA, Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, Cochrane library, Nursing and Allied Database, PsycInfo, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science Core Collection. Twenty-two studies met the inclusion criteria of empirical studies with adult persons experiencing homelessness, English language, and published 2008-2018. Fifty percent of the studies were of qualitative and quantitative design, respectively. Most studies (73%) were conducted in the United States (n=11) and Canada (n=5). The analysis resulted in three themes Unmet basic human needs, Interpersonal dimensions of access to care, and Structural and organizational aspects to meet needs. The findings highlight that persons in homelessness often must prioritize provision for basic human needs, such as finding shelter and food, over getting health- and social care. Bureaucracy and rigid opening hours, as well as discrimination and stigma, hinder these persons' access to health- and social care.

[Impacts of Cannabis Legalisation on Mental Health: A Literature Review]

Objectives To review the known impacts of recreational cannabis legalization on mental health and substance use, in the context of recent changes in the status of cannabis laws in Canada. Methods PubMed database was systematically searched using various terms regarding mental health and cannabis legalization. Two independent investigators then assessed a total of 272 titles and abstracts and 11 articles were ultimately found eligible for review. Results Most studies measuring the impact of legalization on cannabis use showed an increase in cannabis use after the legalization. Moreover, no study demonstrated a reduction of cannabis use after legalization of recreational cannabis. All three studies regarding health care contacts demonstrated an increase in the number of cannabis-related emergency department visits after cannabis legalization. Two studies revealed reduction of perceived risks associated with cannabis after legalization, while another study offered opposite results. To interpret these observational results accurately, we also need to consider the long-term trends that prevailed before the changes in cannabis laws. Conclusions The quantity of evidence on the impacts of recreational cannabis legalization on mental health and substance use is limited. Further research is needed to strengthen these results and explore the effects of cannabis legalization on other mental health issues such as psychosis.

Measuring and addressing the childhood tuberculosis reporting gaps in Pakistan: The first ever national inventory study among children

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis in children may be difficult to diagnose and is often not reported to routine surveillance systems. Understanding and addressing the tuberculosis (TB) case detection and reporting gaps strengthens national routine TB surveillance systems.

OBJECTIVE

The present study aimed to measure the percentage of childhood TB cases that are diagnosed but not reported to the national surveillance system in Pakistan.

DESIGN

The study design was cross sectional. The study was nationwide in 12 selected districts across Pakistan, each representing a cluster. Health facilities that diagnose and treat childhood TB from all sectors were mapped and invited to participate. Lists of child TB cases were created for the study period (April-June 2016) from all study facilities and compared against the list of child TB cases notified to the national TB surveillance system for the same districts and the same period.

RESULTS

All public and private health facilities were mapped across 12 sampled districts in Pakistan and those providing health services to child TB cases were included in the study. From all private health facilities, 7,125 children were found with presumptive TB during the study period. Of them, 5,258 were diagnosed with tuberculosis: 11% were bacteriologically-confirmed and 89% clinically-diagnosed; only 4% were notified to National TB Control Program. An additional 1,267 children with TB were also registered in the National TB Control Program. Underreporting was measured to be 78%.

CONCLUSION

This is the first nationwide childhood TB inventory study globally and confirmed that childhood TB underreporting is very high in Pakistan. TB surveillance in the country must be strengthened to address this, with particular attention to guiding and supporting general practitioners and pediatricians to notify their TB cases.

Estimating Need, Demand and Supply in Primary Health Care Services: A Local Application in Argentina

INTRODUCTION To provide equal access, health care provision should be distributed across geodemographic space based on need. In Argentina, the social security, publicly funded health care and private health care subsectors are responsible for delivering health services. In the public subsector, which is responsible for providing primary and secondary care mainly to the uninsured population, supply of services is not always associated with need. The lack of coordination between levels and subsectors makes it difficult to transform need into demand. OBJECTIVE Design a methodology to systematically estimate need, demand and supply of primary health care services based on secondary data sources in order to assess potential mismatches in any geographical area. METHODS An ecological analysis was conducted based on outpatient visits in primary care in Bahía Blanca, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. A mathematical approach was proposed to systematize data collection by census tract regarding estimated need (number of outpatient visits needed, by specialty, according to age- and sex-specific care protocols and the area's demographics), demand (actual outpatient visits by specialty in each primary health care center), and supply (visit capacity or available appointment slots, taking into account number of personnel hours worked, by specialty). RESULTS Demand for outpatient visits exceeded need (299,731) by 24% while available visit capacity (993,903) could have covered more than twice the number demanded (370,881). Analysis of the three variables grouped by area found that supply correlated more closely with demand (ρ = 0.90) than with need (ρ = 0.68), while spatial analysis showed that supply distribution responded to need. Areas with greater need had a health facility relatively close by, although supply was often located in areas of lower need, and some areas struggle with relatively high need and insufficient supply. CONCLUSIONS Results suggest the need for some reconfiguration of primary health care in the study area. The proposed mechanism for estimating relationship among supply, demand and need is a useful tool to support decision-making. KEYWORDS Health services needs and demand, access to health care; health care accessibility, health care quality, access, and evaluation, health care inequalities, primary health care, Argentina.

Utilisation of health services fails to meet the needs of pregnancy-related illnesses in rural southern Ethiopia: A prospective cohort study

Although maternal survival has improved in the last decades, evidence on illnesses and the use of health services during pregnancy remains scarce. Therefore, we aimed to assess the incidence and risk factors for illnesses among pregnant women and measure the use of health services. A prospective cohort study was conducted in three kebeles in rural southern Ethiopia among 794 pregnant women from May 2017 to July 2018. Each woman was followed every two weeks at home. Poisson and survival regression models were used for analysis. The incidence rate of episodes of illnesses was 93 per 100 pregnant-woman-weeks (95%CI: 90.6, 94.2), with an average of eight episodes of illnesses per woman. Anaemia accounted for 22% (177 of 794 women), and hypertension 3% (21 women of 794 women). However, utilization of health services for any illness episodes was only 8% (95%CI: 7.6%, 8.9%). The main reasons for not using health services were that the women thought the illness would heal by itself, women thought the illness was not serious, women could not afford to visit the health institutions, or women lacked confidence in the health institutions. The risk factors for illnesses are having many previous pregnancies in life time (ARR = 1.42; 95%CI = 1.02, 1.96), having history of stillbirth (ARR = 1.30; 95%CI = 1.03, 1.64), having history of abortion (AHR = 1.06; 95%CI = 1.02, 1.11), and walking more than 60 minutes to access the nearest hospital (AHR = 1.08; 95%CI = 1.03, 1.14). The risk factors for low use of health services are also having history of abortion (AHR = 2.50; 95%CI = 1.00, 6.01) and walking more than 60 minutes to access the nearest hospital (AHR = 1.91; 95%CI = 1.00, 3.63). Rural Ethiopian pregnant women experience a high burden of illness during pregnancy. Unfortunately, very few of these women utilize health services.