Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Automated signal quality assessment of mobile phone-recorded heart sound signals

Mobile phones, due to their audio processing capabilities, have the potential to facilitate the diagnosis of heart disease through automated auscultation. However, such a platform is likely to be used by non-experts, and hence, it is essential that such a device is able to automatically differentiate poor quality from diagnostically useful recordings since non-experts are more likely to make poor-quality recordings. This paper investigates the automated signal quality assessment of heart sound recordings performed using both mobile phone-based and commercial medical-grade electronic stethoscopes. The recordings, each 60 s long, were taken from 151 random adult individuals with varying diagnoses referred to a cardiac clinic and were professionally annotated by five experts. A mean voting procedure was used to compute a final quality label for each recording. Nine signal quality indices were defined and calculated for each recording. A logistic regression model for classifying binary quality was then trained and tested. The inter-rater agreement level for the stethoscope and mobile phone recordings was measured using Conger's kappa for multiclass sets and found to be 0.24 and 0.54, respectively. One-third of all the mobile phone-recorded phonocardiogram (PCG) signals were found to be of sufficient quality for analysis. The classifier was able to distinguish good- and poor-quality mobile phone recordings with 82.2% accuracy, and those made with the electronic stethoscope with an accuracy of 86.5%. We conclude that our classification approach provides a mechanism for substantially improving auscultation recordings by non-experts. This work is the first systematic evaluation of a PCG signal quality classification algorithm (using a separate test dataset) and assessment of the quality of PCG recordings captured by non-experts, using both a medical-grade digital stethoscope and a mobile phone.

Symptoms and Signs of Heart Failure at Admission and Discharge and Outcomes in the Sub-Saharan Acute Heart Failure (THESUS-HF) Registry

BACKGROUND

Symptoms and signs of heart failure (HF) are the most common reasons for admission to hospital for acute HF (AHF) and are used routinely throughout admission to assess the severity of disease and response to therapy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The data were collected in The Sub-Saharan Africa Survey on Heart Failure (THESUS-HF) study, a prospective, multicenter, observational survey of AHF from 9 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. A total of 1006 patients, ≥12 years of age, hospitalized for AHF were recruited. Symptoms and signs of HF and changes in dyspnea and well-being, relative to admission, were assessed at entry and on days 1, 2, and 7 (or on discharge if earlier) and included oxygen saturation, degree of edema and rales, body weight, and level of orthopnea. The patient determined dyspnea and general well-being, whereas the physician determined symptoms and signs of HF, as well as improvements in vital sign measurement, throughout the admission. After multivariable adjustment, baseline rales and changes to day 7 or discharge in general well-being predicted death or HF hospitalization through day 60, and baseline orthopnea, edema, rales, oxygen saturation, and changes to day 7 or on discharge in respiratory rate and general well-being were predictive of death through day 180.

CONCLUSIONS

In AHF patients in sub-Saharan Africa, symptoms and signs of HF improve throughout admission, and simple assessments, including edema, rales, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, and asking the patient about general well-being, are valuable tools in patients' clinical assessment.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

METHODS

For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

FINDINGS

Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

INTERPRETATION

Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

Developing the African national health research systems barometer

Background

A functional national health research system (NHRS) is crucial in strengthening a country’s health system to promote, restore and maintain the health status of its population. Progress towards the goal of universal health coverage in the post-2015 sustainable development agenda will be difficult for African countries without strengthening of their NHRS to yield the required evidence for decision-making. This study aims to develop a barometer to facilitate monitoring of the development and performance of NHRSs in the African Region of WHO.

Methods

The African national health research systems barometer algorithm was developed in response to a recommendation of the African Advisory Committee for Health Research and Development of WHO. Survey data collected from all the 47 Member States in the WHO African Region using a questionnaire were entered into an Excel spreadsheet and analysed. The barometer scores for each country were calculated and the performance interpreted according to a set of values ranging from 0% to 100%.

Results

The overall NHRS barometer score for the African Region was 42%, which is below the average of 50%. Among the 47 countries, the average NHRS performance was less than 20% in 10 countries, 20–40% in 11 countries, 41–60% in 16 countries, 61–80% in nine countries, and over 80% in one country. The performance of NHRSs in 30 (64%) countries was below 50%.

Conclusion

An African NHRS barometer with four functions and 17 sub-functions was developed to identify the gaps in and facilitate monitoring of NHRS development and performance. The NHRS scores for the individual sub-functions can guide policymakers to locate sources of poor performance and to design interventions to address them.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12961-016-0121-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Endemic Cardiovascular Diseases of the Poorest Billion

The poorest billion people are distributed throughout the world, though most are concentrated in rural sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) data can be sparse in low- and middle-income countries beyond urban centers. Despite this urban bias, CVD registries from the poorest countries have long revealed a predominance of nonatherosclerotic stroke, hypertensive heart disease, nonischemic and Chagas cardiomyopathies, rheumatic heart disease, and congenital heart anomalies, among others. Ischemic heart disease has been relatively uncommon. Here, we summarize what is known about the epidemiology of CVDs among the world’s poorest people and evaluate the relevance of global targets for CVD control in this population. We assessed both primary data sources, and the 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study modeled estimates in the world’s 16 poorest countries where 62% of the population are among the poorest billion. We found that ischemic heart disease accounted for only 12% of the combined CVD and congenital heart anomaly disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the poorest countries, compared with 51% of DALYs in high-income countries. We found that as little as 53% of the combined CVD and congenital heart anomaly burden (1629/3049 DALYs per 100 000) was attributed to behavioral or metabolic risk factors in the poorest countries (eg, in Niger, 82% of the population among the poorest billion) compared with 85% of the combined CVD and congenital heart anomaly burden (4439/5199 DALYs) in high-income countries. Further, of the combined CVD and congenital heart anomaly burden, 34% was accrued in people under age 30 years in the poorest countries, while only 3% is accrued under age 30 years in high-income countries. We conclude although the current global targets for noncommunicable disease and CVD control will help diminish premature CVD death in the poorest populations, they are not sufficient. Specifically, the current framework (1) excludes deaths of people <30 years of age and deaths attributable to congenital heart anomalies, and (2) emphasizes interventions to prevent and treat conditions attributed to behavioral and metabolic risks factors. We recommend a complementary strategy for the poorest populations that targets premature death at younger ages, addresses environmental and infectious risks, and introduces broader integrated health system interventions, including cardiac surgery for congenital and rheumatic heart disease.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Heart Failure in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Successful combination therapy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has transformed this disease from a short-lived infection with high mortality to a chronic disease associated with increasing life expectancy. This is true for high- as well as low- and middle-income countries. As a result of this increased life expectancy, people living with HIV are now at risk of developing other chronic diseases associated with aging. Heart failure has been common among people living with HIV in the eras of pre- and post- availability of antiretroviral therapy; however, our current understanding of the pathogenesis and approaches to management have not been systematically addressed. HIV may cause heart failure through direct (e.g., viral replication, mitochondrial dysfunction, cardiac autoimmunity, autonomic dysfunction) and indirect (e.g., opportunistic infections, antiretroviral therapy, alcohol abuse, micronutrient deficiency, tobacco use) pathways. In low- and middle-income countries, 2 large observational studies have recently reported clinical characteristics and outcomes in these patients. HIV-associated heart failure remains a common cardiac diagnosis in people living with heart failure, yet a unifying set of diagnostic criteria is lacking. Treatment patterns for heart failure fall short of society guidelines. Although there may be promise in cardiac glycosides for treating heart failure in people living with HIV, clinical studies are needed to validate in vitro findings. Owing to the burden of HIV in low- and middle-income countries and the concurrent rise of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, strategic and concerted efforts in this area are likely to impact the care of people living with HIV around the globe.

An immunological perspective on rheumatic heart disease pathogenesis: more questions than answers

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and the related rheumatic heart disease (RHD) are autoimmune diseases thought to be triggered by group A streptococcal (GAS) pharyngitis. RHD is a leading cause of mortality in the developing world. The strong epidemiological association between GAS throat infection and ARF is highly suggestive of causation, but does not exclude other infections as contributory. There is good evidence of both humoral and cellular autoreactivity and GAS/self cross-reactivity in established RHD. RHD pathogenesis could feasibly be triggered and driven by humoral and/or cellular molecular cross-reactivity between GAS and host cardiac tissues (molecular mimicry). However, good evidence of humoral pathogenicity is lacking and the specific triggering event for RHD remains unknown. It is likely that the critical immunological events leading to ARF/RHD occur at the point of contact between GAS and the immune system in the throat, strongly implicating the mucosal immune system in RHD pathogenesis. Additionally, there is circumstantial evidence that continued live GAS may play a role in ARF/RHD pathogenesis. We suggest that future avenues for study should include the exclusion of GAS components directly contributing to RHD pathogenesis; large genome-wide association studies of patients with RHD looking for candidate genes involved in RHD pathogenesis; genome-wide association studies of GAS from patients with ARF taken at diagnosis to look for characteristics of rheumatogenic strains; and performing case/control studies of GAS pharyngitis/ARF/patients with RHD, and controls to identify microbiological, immunological and environmental differences to elucidate RHD pathogenesis.

The Heart of 25 by 25: Achieving the Goal of Reducing Global and Regional Premature Deaths From Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke: A Modeling Study From the American Heart Association and World Heart Federation

In 2011, the United Nations set key targets to reach by 2025 to reduce the risk of premature noncommunicable disease death by 25% by 2025. With cardiovascular disease being the largest contributor to global mortality, accounting for nearly half of the 36 million annual noncommunicable disease deaths, achieving the 2025 goal requires that cardiovascular disease and its risk factors be aggressively addressed. The Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce, comprising the World Heart Federation, American Heart Association, American College of Cardiology Foundation, European Heart Network, and European Society of Cardiology, with expanded representation from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, along with global cardiovascular disease experts, disseminates information and approaches to reach the United Nations 2025 targets. The writing committee, which reflects Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce membership, engaged the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, to develop region-specific estimates of premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025 based on various scenarios. Results show that >5 million premature CVD deaths among men and 2.8 million among women are projected worldwide by 2025, which can be reduced to 3.5 million and 2.2 million, respectively, if risk factor targets for blood pressure, tobacco use, diabetes mellitus, and obesity are achieved. However, global risk factor targets have various effects, depending on region. For most regions, United Nations targets for reducing systolic blood pressure and tobacco use have more substantial effects on future scenarios compared with maintaining current levels of body mass index and fasting plasma glucose. However, preventing increases in body mass index has the largest effect in some high-income countries. An approach achieving reductions in multiple risk factors has the largest impact for almost all regions. Achieving these goals can be accomplished only if countries set priorities, implement cost-effective population wide strategies, and collaborate in public-private partnerships across multiple sectors.

Rationale and design of the African group A streptococcal infection registry: the AFROStrep study

INTRODUCTION

Group A β-haemolytic Streptococcus (GAS), a Gram-positive bacterium, also known as Streptococcus pyogenes, causes pyoderma, pharyngitis and invasive disease. Repeated GAS infections may lead to autoimmune diseases such as acute post-streptococcal glomerulonephritis, acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD). Invasive GAS (iGAS) disease is an important cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. The burden of GAS infections is, however, unknown in Africa because of lack of surveillance systems.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The African group A streptococcal infection registry (the AFROStrep study) is a collaborative multicentre study of clinical, microbiological, epidemiological and molecular characteristics for GAS infection in Africa. The AFROStrep registry comprises two components: (1) active surveillance of GAS pharyngitis cases from sentinel primary care centres (non-iGAS) and (2) passive surveillance of iGAS disease from microbiology laboratories. Isolates will also be subjected to DNA isolation to allow for characterisation by molecular methods and cryopreservation for long-term storage. The AFROStrep study seeks to collect comprehensive data on GAS isolates in Africa. The biorepository will serve as a platform for vaccine development in Africa.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval for the AFROStrep registry has been obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committee at the University of Cape Town (HREC/REF: R006/2015). Each recruiting site will seek ethics approval from their local ethics' committee. All participants will be required to provide consent for inclusion into the registry as well as for the storage of isolates and molecular investigations to be conducted thereon. Strict confidentiality will be applied throughout. Findings and updates will be disseminated to collaborators, researchers, health planners and colleagues through peer-reviewed journal articles, conference publications and proceedings.

Acute rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is the result of an autoimmune response to pharyngitis caused by infection with group A Streptococcus. The long-term damage to cardiac valves caused by ARF, which can result from a single severe episode or from multiple recurrent episodes of the illness, is known as rheumatic heart disease (RHD) and is a notable cause of morbidity and mortality in resource-poor settings around the world. Although our understanding of disease pathogenesis has advanced in recent years, this has not led to dramatic improvements in diagnostic approaches, which are still reliant on clinical features using the Jones Criteria, or treatment practices. Indeed, penicillin has been the mainstay of treatment for decades and there is no other treatment that has been proven to alter the likelihood or the severity of RHD after an episode of ARF. Recent advances - including the use of echocardiographic diagnosis in those with ARF and in screening for early detection of RHD, progress in developing group A streptococcal vaccines and an increased focus on the lived experience of those with RHD and the need to improve quality of life - give cause for optimism that progress will be made in coming years against this neglected disease that affects populations around the world, but is a particular issue for those living in poverty.

Seven key actions to eradicate rheumatic heart disease in Africa: the Addis Ababa communiqué

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain major causes of heart failure, stroke and death among African women and children, despite being preventable and imminently treatable. From 21 to 22 February 2015, the Social Cluster of the Africa Union Commission (AUC) hosted a consultation with RHD experts convened by the Pan-African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to develop a ‘roadmap’ of key actions that need to be taken by governments to eliminate ARF and eradicate RHD in Africa.

Seven priority areas for action were adopted: (1) create prospective disease registers at sentinel sites in affected countries to measure disease burden and track progress towards the reduction of mortality by 25% by the year 2025, (2) ensure an adequate supply of high-quality benzathine penicillin for the primary and secondary prevention of ARF/RHD, (3) improve access to reproductive health services for women with RHD and other non-communicable diseases (NCD), (4) decentralise technical expertise and technology for diagnosing and managing ARF and RHD (including ultrasound of the heart), (5) establish national and regional centres of excellence for essential cardiac surgery for the treatment of affected patients and training of cardiovascular practitioners of the future, (6) initiate national multi-sectoral RHD programmes within NCD control programmes of affected countries, and (7) foster international partnerships with multinational organsations for resource mobilisation, monitoring and evaluation of the programme to end RHD in Africa.

This Addis Ababa communiqué has since been endorsed by African Union heads of state, and plans are underway to implement the roadmap in order to end ARF and RHD in Africa in our lifetime.

The efficacy and safety of complete pericardial drainage by means of intrapericardial fibrinolysis for the prevention of complications of pericardial effusion: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Intrapericardial fibrinolysis has been proposed as a means of preventing complications of pericardial effusion such as cardiac tamponade, persistent and recurrent pericardial effusion, and pericardial constriction. There is a need to understand the efficacy and safety of this procedure because it shows promise.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We aim to assess the effects of intrapericardial fibrinolysis in the treatment of pericardial effusion. We will search PubMed, the Cochrane Library, African Journals online, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Trip database, Clinical trials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for studies that evaluate the efficacy and/or safety of complete pericardial fluid drainage by intrapericardial fibrinolysis irrespective of study design, geographical location, language, age of participants, aetiology of pericarditis or types of fibrinolytics. Two authors will do the search independently, screen the search outputs for potentially eligible studies and assess whether the studies meet the inclusion criteria. Discrepancies between the two authors will be resolved through discussion and arbitration by a third author. Data from the selected studies shall be extracted using a standardised data collection form which will be piloted before use. The methodological quality of studies will be assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's tools for assessing risk of bias for experimental studies and non-randomised studies, respectively. The primary meta-analysis will use random effects models due to expected interstudy heterogeneity. Dichotomous data will be analysed using relative risk and continuous with data mean differences, both with 95% CIs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approval by an ethics committee is not required for this study as it is a protocol for a systematic review of published studies. The results will be disseminated through a conference presentation and peer-reviewed publication.

REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO, CRD42014015238.

The Effects of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitors (ACE-I) on Human N-Acetyl-Seryl-Aspartyl-Lysyl-Proline (Ac-SDKP) Levels: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Tuberculous pericardial effusion is a pro-fibrotic condition that is complicated by constrictive pericarditis in 4% to 8% of cases. N-acetyl-seryl-aspartyl-lysyl-proline (Ac-SDKP) is a ubiquitous tetrapeptide with anti-fibrotic properties that is low in tuberculous pericardial effusion, thus providing a potential mechanism for the heightened fibrotic state. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-I), which increase Ac-SDKP levels with anti-fibrotic effects in animal models, are candidate drugs for preventing constrictive pericarditis if they can be shown to have similar effects on Ac-SDKP and fibrosis in human tissues.

Objective

To systematically review the effects of ACE-Is on Ac-SDKP levels in human tissues.

Methods

We searched five electronic databases (1996 to 2014) and conference abstracts with no language restrictions. Two reviewers independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed methodological quality. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO.

Results

Four studies with a total of 206 participants met the inclusion criteria. Three studies (106 participants) assessed the change in plasma levels of Ac-SDKP following ACE-I administration in healthy humans. The administration of an ACE-I was associated with an increase in Ac-SDKP levels (mean difference (MD) 5.07 pmol/ml (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.64 pmol/ml to 9.51 pmol/ml)). Two studies with 100 participants further assessed the change in Ac-SDKP level in humans with renal failure using ACE-I. The administration of an ACE-I was associated with a significant increase in Ac-SDKP levels (MD 8.94 pmol/ml; 95% CI 2.55 to 15.33; I² = 44%).

Conclusion

ACE-I increased Ac-SDKP levels in human plasma. These findings provide the rationale for testing the impact of ACE-I on Ac-SDKP levels and fibrosis in tuberculous pericarditis.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS

We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

FINDINGS

Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

INTERPRETATION

Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tuberculous Pericarditis is Multibacillary and Bacterial Burden Drives High Mortality

BACKGROUND

Tuberculous pericarditis is considered to be a paucibacillary process; the large pericardial fluid accumulation is attributed to an inflammatory response to tuberculoproteins. Mortality rates are high. We investigated the role of clinical and microbial factors predictive of tuberculous pericarditis mortality using the artificial intelligence algorithm termed classification and regression tree (CART) analysis.

METHODS

Patients were prospectively enrolled and followed in the Investigation of the Management of Pericarditis (IMPI) registry. Clinical and laboratory data of 70 patients with confirmed tuberculous pericarditis, including time-to-positive (TTP) cultures from pericardial fluid, were extracted and analyzed for mortality outcomes using CART. TTP was translated to log10 colony forming units (CFUs) per mL, and compared to that obtained from sputum in some of our patients.

FINDINGS

Seventy patients with proven tuberculous pericarditis were enrolled. The median patient age was 35 (range: 20-71) years. The median, follow up was for 11.97 (range: 0·03-74.73) months. The median TTP for pericardial fluid cultures was 22 (range: 4-58) days or 3.91(range: 0·5-8·96) log10CFU/mL, which overlapped with the range of 3.24-7.42 log10CFU/mL encountered in sputum, a multi-bacillary disease. The overall mortality rate was 1.43 per 100 person-months. CART identified follow-up duration of 5·23 months on directly observed therapy, a CD4 + count of ≤ 199.5/mL, and TTP ≤ 14 days (bacillary load ≥ 5.53 log10 CFU/mL) as predictive of mortality. TTP interacted with follow-up duration in a non-linear fashion.

INTERPRETATION

Patients with culture confirmed tuberculous pericarditis have a high bacillary burden, and this bacterial burden drives mortality. Thus proven tuberculosis pericarditis is not a paucibacillary disease. Moreover, the severe immunosuppression suggests limited inflammation. There is a need for the design of a highly bactericidal regimen for this condition.