Differences in risk factors for incident and recurrent preterm birth: a population-based linkage of 3.5 million births from the CIDACS birth cohort

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth (PTB) is a syndrome resulting from a complex list of underlying causes and factors, and whether these risk factors differ in the context of prior PTB history is less understood. The aim of this study was to explore whether PTB risk factors in a second pregnancy were different in women with versus without previous PTB.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study using data from the birth cohort of the Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS) for the period 2001 to 2015. We used longitudinal transition models with multivariate logistic regression to investigate whether risk factors varied between incident and recurrent PTB.

RESULTS

A total of 3,528,050 live births from 1,764,025 multiparous women were analyzed. We identified different risk factors (P_difference <0.05) between incident and recurrent PTB. The following were associated with an increased chance for PTB incidence, but not recurrent: household overcrowding (OR 1.09), maternal race/ethnicity [(Black/mixed-OR 1.04) and (indigenous-OR 1.34)], young maternal age (14 to 19 years-OR 1.16), and cesarean delivery (OR 1.09). The following were associated with both incident and recurrent PTB, respectively: single marital status (OR 0.85 vs 0.90), reduced number of prenatal visits [(no visit-OR 2.56 vs OR 2.16) and (1 to 3 visits-OR 2.44 vs OR 2.24)], short interbirth interval [(12 to 23 months-OR 1.04 vs OR 1.22) and (<12 months, OR 1.89, 95 vs OR 2.58)], and advanced maternal age (35-49 years-OR 1.42 vs OR 1.45). For most risk factors, the point estimates were higher for incident PTB than recurrent PTB.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk factors for PTB in the second pregnancy differed according to women's first pregnancy PTB status. The findings give the basis for the development of specific prevention strategies for PTB in a subsequent pregnancy.

The effect of primary health care on tuberculosis in a nationwide cohort of 7·3 million Brazilian people: a quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND

Universal health coverage is one of the WHO End TB Strategy priority interventions and could be achieved-particularly in low-income and middle-income countries-through the expansion of primary health care. We evaluated the effects of one of the largest primary health-care programmes in the world, the Brazilian Family Health Strategy (FHS), on tuberculosis morbidity and mortality using a nationwide cohort of 7·3 million individuals over a 10-year study period.

METHODS

We analysed individuals who entered the 100 Million Brazilians Cohort during the period Jan 1, 2004, to Dec 31, 2013, and compared residents in municipalities with no FHS coverage with residents in municipalities with full FHS coverage. We used a cohort design with multivariable Poisson regressions, adjusted for all relevant demographic and socioeconomic variables and weighted with inverse probability of treatment weighting, to estimate the effect of FHS on tuberculosis incidence, mortality, cure, and case fatality. We also performed a range of stratifications and sensitivity analyses.

FINDINGS

FHS exposure was associated with lower tuberculosis incidence (rate ratio [RR] 0·78, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) and mortality (0·72, 0·55-0·94), and was positively associated with tuberculosis cure rates (1·04, 1·00-1·08). FHS was also associated with a decrease in tuberculosis case-fatality rates, although this was not statistically significant (RR 0·84, 95% CI 0·55-1·30). FHS associations were stronger among the poorest individuals for all the tuberculosis indicators.

INTERPRETATION

Community-based primary health care could strongly reduce tuberculosis morbidity and mortality and decrease the unequal distribution of the tuberculosis burden in the most vulnerable populations. During the current marked rise in global poverty due to the COVID-19 pandemic, investments in primary health care could help protect against the expected increases in tuberculosis incidence worldwide and contribute to the attainment of the End TB Strategy goals.

FUNDING

TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), Wellcome Trust, and Brazilian Ministry of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Social inequalities and their impact on children's health: a current and global perspective

OBJECTIVE

To describe the consequences of social inequalities on children's health as a global and persistent problem, demonstrating its historical and structural roots in different societies.

DATA SOURCES

Relevant articles in the PubMed/MEDLINE database, in addition to those found in a manual search and in the bibliographic references of selected studies and consultation to the websites of international organizations to obtain relevant data and documents.

DATA SYNTHESIS

To understand how inequities affect health, it is necessary to know the unequal distribution of their social determinants among population groups. In the case of children, the parental pathway of determinants is central. The non-equitable way in which many families or social groups live, determined by social and economic inequalities, produces unequal health outcomes, particularly for children. This is observed between and within countries. Children from the most vulnerable population groups consistently have worse health conditions. Interventions aimed at children's health must go beyond care and act in an integrated manner on poverty and on social and economic inequalities, aiming to end systematic and unfair differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the considerable advances observed in children's health in recent decades at a global level, the inequalities measured by different indicators show that they persist. This scenario deserves attention from researchers and decision-makers, especially in the context of the global health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has further intensified the situation of vulnerability and social inequalities in health around the world.

Mortality from Congenital Zika Syndrome - Nationwide Cohort Study in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Prenatal exposure to Zika virus has potential teratogenic effects, with a wide spectrum of clinical presentation referred to as congenital Zika syndrome. Data on survival among children with congenital Zika syndrome are limited.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used linked, routinely collected data in Brazil, from January 2015 through December 2018, to estimate mortality among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome as compared with those without the syndrome. Kaplan-Meier curves and survival models were assessed with adjustment for confounding and with stratification according to gestational age, birth weight, and status of being small for gestational age.

RESULTS

A total of 11,481,215 live-born children were followed to 36 months of age. The mortality rate was 52.6 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 47.6 to 58.0) per 1000 person-years among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome, as compared with 5.6 deaths (95% CI, 5.6 to 5.7) per 1000 person-years among those without the syndrome. The mortality rate ratio among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome, as compared with those without the syndrome, was 11.3 (95% CI, 10.2 to 12.4). Among infants born before 32 weeks of gestation or with a birth weight of less than 1500 g, the risks of death were similar regardless of congenital Zika syndrome status. Among infants born at term, those with congenital Zika syndrome were 14.3 times (95% CI, 12.4 to 16.4) as likely to die as those without the syndrome (mortality rate, 38.4 vs. 2.7 deaths per 1000 person-years). Among infants with a birth weight of 2500 g or greater, those with congenital Zika syndrome were 12.9 times (95% CI, 10.9 to 15.3) as likely to die as those without the syndrome (mortality rate, 32.6 vs. 2.5 deaths per 1000 person-years). The burden of congenital anomalies, diseases of the nervous system, and infectious diseases as recorded causes of deaths was higher among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome than among those without the syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of death was higher among live-born children with congenital Zika syndrome than among those without the syndrome and persisted throughout the first 3 years of life. (Funded by the Ministry of Health of Brazil and others.).

Influence of age on the effectiveness and duration of protection of Vaxzevria and CoronaVac vaccines: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Aging influences COVID-19 severity and response to vaccination, but previous vaccine effectiveness (VE) analyzes lack the power to evaluate its role in subgroups within the elderly age group. Here we analyzed the impact of age on viral vector and inactivated virus vaccines' effectiveness, the main platforms used in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We report a retrospective longitudinal study of 75,919,840 Brazilian vaccinees from January 18 to July 24, 2021, evaluating documented infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), COVID-19-related hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics were used for VE estimation.

FINDINGS

The overall analyzes of full vaccination showed VE against hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death of 91·4% (95%CI:90·1-92·5), 91·1% (95%CI:88·9-92·9) and 92·3% (95%CI:90·5-93·7) for Vaxzevria and 71·2% (95%CI:70·0-72·4), 72·2% (95%CI:70·2-74·0) and 73·7% (95%CI:72·1-75·2) for CoronaVac, respectively. VE for all outcomes is progressively lower with age. In fully-Vaxzevria-vaccinated individuals aged <60 years, VE against death was 96.5% (95%CI:82.1-99.3) versus 68·5% (95%CI:40·0-83·4) in those ≥90 years. Among fully-CoronaVac-vaccinated individuals, VE against death was 84.8% (95%CI:77.1-89.9) in those <60 years compared to 63.5 (95%CI 58.7-67.7) for vaccinees aged 80-89 years and 48·6%; (95%CI:35·0-59·3) for individuals aged ≥90 years. Post-vaccination daily cumulative incidence curves for all outcomes showed increased risk from younger to elder decades of life. There was no increase in the incidence of hospitalisation for individuals <60 years vaccinated during the same period as those aged ≥90 years.

INTERPRETATION

Although both vaccines have been effective in protecting against infection, hospitalization and death; Vaxzevria and CoronaVac demonstrated high effectiveness against severe outcomes for individuals up to 79 years of age. Our results reinforce the idea that booster doses should be carefully considered in elders.

FUNDING

This study was partially supported by a donation from the "Fazer o bem faz bem" program.

Two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine protection against COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths over time: a retrospective, population-based cohort study in Scotland and Brazil

BACKGROUND

Reports suggest that COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness is decreasing, but whether this reflects waning or new SARS-CoV-2 variants-especially delta (B.1.617.2)-is unclear. We investigated the association between time since two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine and risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland (where delta was dominant), with comparative analyses in Brazil (where delta was uncommon).

METHODS

In this retrospective, population-based cohort study in Brazil and Scotland, we linked national databases from the EAVE II study in Scotland; and the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign, Acute Respiratory Infection Suspected Cases, and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection/Illness datasets in Brazil) for vaccination, laboratory testing, clinical, and mortality data. We defined cohorts of adults (aged ≥18 years) who received two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and compared rates of severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19 hospital admission or death) across fortnightly periods, relative to 2-3 weeks after the second dose. Entry to the Scotland cohort started from May 19, 2021, and entry to the Brazil cohort started from Jan 18, 2021. Follow-up in both cohorts was until Oct 25, 2021. Poisson regression was used to estimate rate ratios (RRs) and vaccine effectiveness, with 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

1 972 454 adults received two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in Scotland and 42 558 839 in Brazil, with longer follow-up in Scotland because two-dose vaccination began earlier in Scotland than in Brazil. In Scotland, RRs for severe COVID-19 increased to 2·01 (95% CI 1·54-2·62) at 10-11 weeks, 3·01 (2·26-3·99) at 14-15 weeks, and 5·43 (4·00-7·38) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. The pattern of results was similar in Brazil, with RRs of 2·29 (2·01-2·61) at 10-11 weeks, 3·10 (2·63-3·64) at 14-15 weeks, and 4·71 (3·83-5·78) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. In Scotland, vaccine effectiveness decreased from 83·7% (95% CI 79·7-87·0) at 2-3 weeks, to 75·9% (72·9-78·6) at 14-15 weeks, and 63·7% (59·6-67·4) at 18-19 weeks after the second dose. In Brazil, vaccine effectiveness decreased from 86·4% (85·4-87·3) at 2-3 weeks, to 59·7% (54·6-64·2) at 14-15 weeks, and 42·2% (32·4-50·6) at 18-19 weeks.

INTERPRETATION

We found waning vaccine protection of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 against COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths in both Scotland and Brazil, this becoming evident within three months of the second vaccine dose. Consideration needs to be given to providing booster vaccine doses for people who have received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Scottish Government, Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK, Fiocruz, Fazer o Bem Faz Bem Programme; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

TRANSLATION

For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Effect of acetaminophen use during pregnancy on adverse pregnancy outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

A high number of women are exposed to acetaminophen during pregnancy worldwide. This drug safety during pregnancy regarding preterm birth, birth weight, and fetal development has not been well described. This study investigated the effect of acetaminophen use during pregnancy on selected adverse pregnancy outcomes.

AREAS COVERED

Databases were searched to identify studies reporting the effects of acetaminophen use during pregnancy on preterm birth, low birth weight, and small for gestational age. The studies' quality was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and the Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies. Relative risk with 95% confidence intervals of each outcome was estimated using a fixed or random-effects model. Six studies were included for final review, four cohort and two case-control studies. We found no increased risk of preterm birth (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.59-1.58), and decreased risks of low birth weight (RR 0.65; 95% CI 0.59-0.72) and small for gestational age (RR 0.69; 95% CI 0.50-0.97). Acetaminophen exposure during the third trimester revealed non-significantly in the outcomes.

EXPERT OPINION

Exposure to acetaminophen during pregnancy appears to not increase the risk of the outcomes analyzed. However, there is a lack of information regarding the exposure dose and frequency of acetaminophen use.

Scaling of mortality in 742 metropolitan areas of the Americas

We explored how mortality scales with city population size using vital registration and population data from 742 cities in 10 Latin American countries and the United States. We found that more populated cities had lower mortality (sublinear scaling), driven by a sublinear pattern in U.S. cities, while Latin American cities had similar mortality across city sizes. Sexually transmitted infections and homicides showed higher rates in larger cities (superlinear scaling). Tuberculosis mortality behaved sublinearly in U.S. and Mexican cities and superlinearly in other Latin American cities. Other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths, and deaths due to noncommunicable diseases were generally sublinear in the United States and linear or superlinear in Latin America. Our findings reveal distinct patterns across the Americas, suggesting no universal relation between city size and mortality, pointing to the importance of understanding the processes that explain heterogeneity in scaling behavior or mortality to further advance urban health policies.

Methods to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, with an emphasis on quasi-experimental approaches

The evaluation of vaccine effectiveness is conducted with real-world data. They are essential to monitor the performance of vaccination programmes over time, and in the context of the emergence of new variants. Until now, the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines has been assessed based on classic methods, such as cohort and test-negative case-control studies, which may often not allow for adequate control of inherent biases in the assignment of vaccination campaigns. The aim of this review was to discuss the study designs available to evaluate vaccine effectiveness, highlighting quasi-experimental studies, which seek to mimic randomized trials, by introducing an exogenous component to allocate to treatment, in addition to the advantages, limitations, and applicability in the context of Brazilian data. The use of quasi-experimental approaches, such as interrupted time series, difference-in-differences, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and regression discontinuity design, are relevant due to the possibility of providing more accurate estimates of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness. This is especially important in scenarios such as the Brazilian, which characterized by the use of various vaccines, with the respective numbers and intervals between doses, applied to different age groups, and introduced at different times during the pandemic.

Genome-wide association study of asthma, total IgE, and lung function in a cohort of Peruvian children

BACKGROUND

Genetic ancestry plays a role in asthma health disparities.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to evaluate the impact of ancestry on and identify genetic variants associated with asthma, total serum IgE level, and lung function.

METHODS

A total of 436 Peruvian children (aged 9-19 years) with asthma and 291 without asthma were genotyped by using the Illumina Multi-Ethnic Global Array. Genome-wide proportions of indigenous ancestry populations from continental America (NAT) and European ancestry from the Iberian populations in Spain (IBS) were estimated by using ADMIXTURE. We assessed the relationship between ancestry and the phenotypes and performed a genome-wide association study.

RESULTS

The mean ancestry proportions were 84.7% NAT (case patients, 84.2%; controls, 85.4%) and 15.3% IBS (15.8%; 14.6%). With adjustment for asthma, NAT was associated with higher total serum IgE levels (P < .001) and IBS was associated with lower total serum IgE levels (P < .001). NAT was associated with higher FEV1 percent predicted values (P < .001), whereas IBS was associated with lower FEV1 values in the controls but not in the case patients. The HLA-DR/DQ region on chromosome 6 (Chr6) was strongly associated with total serum IgE (rs3135348; P = 3.438 × 10-10) and was independent of an association with the haplotype HLA-DQA1∼HLA-DQB1:04.01∼04.02 (P = 1.55 × 10-05). For lung function, we identified a locus (rs4410198; P = 5.536 × 10-11) mapping to Chr19, near a cluster of zinc finger interacting genes that colocalizes to the long noncoding RNA CTD-2537I9.5. This novel locus was replicated in an independent sample of pediatric case patients with asthma with similar admixture from Brazil (P = .005).

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the role of HLA in atopy, and identifies a novel locus mapping to a long noncoding RNA for lung function that may be specific to children with NAT.

Associations between cesarean delivery and child mortality: A national record linkage longitudinal study of 17.8 million births in Brazil

BACKGROUND

There is an increasing use of cesarean delivery (CD) based on preference rather than on medical indication. However, the extent to which nonmedically indicated CD benefits or harms child survival remains unclear. Our hypothesis was that in groups with a low indication for CD, this procedure would be associated with higher child mortality and in groups with a clear medical indication CD would be associated with improved child survival chances.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a population-based cohort study in Brazil by linking routine data on live births between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2018 and assessing mortality up to 5 years of age. Women with a live birth who contributed records during this period were classified into one of 10 Robson groups based on their pregnancy and delivery characteristics. We used propensity scores to match CD with vaginal deliveries (1:1) and prelabor CD with unscheduled CD (1:1) and estimated associations with child mortality using Cox regressions. A total of 17,838,115 live births were analyzed. After propensity score matching (PSM), we found that live births to women in groups with low expected frequencies of CD (Robson groups 1 to 4) had a higher death rate up to age 5 years if they were born via CD compared with vaginal deliveries (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.28; p < 0.001). The relative rate was greatest in the neonatal period (HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.34 to 1.45; p < 0.001). There was no difference in mortality rate when comparing offspring born by a prelabor CD to those born by unscheduled CD. For the live births to women with a CD in a prior pregnancy (Robson group 5), the relative rates for child mortality were similar for those born by CD compared with vaginal deliveries (HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.10; p = 0.024). In contrast, for live births to women in groups with high expected rates of CD (Robson groups 6 to 10), the child mortality rate was lower for CD than for vaginal deliveries (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.89 to 0.91; p < 0.001), particularly in the neonatal period (HR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.85; p < 0.001). Our results should be interpreted with caution in clinical practice, since relevant clinical data on CD indication were not available.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that in Robson groups with low expected frequencies of CD, this procedure was associated with a 25% increase in child mortality. However, in groups with high expected frequencies of CD, the findings suggest that clinically indicated CD is associated with a reduction in child mortality.

Tracing the Distribution of European Lactase Persistence Genotypes Along the Americas

In adulthood, the ability to digest lactose, the main sugar present in milk of mammals, is a phenotype (lactase persistence) observed in historically herder populations, mainly Northern Europeans, Eastern Africans, and Middle Eastern nomads. As the -13910∗T allele in the MCM6 gene is the most well-characterized allele responsible for the lactase persistence phenotype, the -13910C > T (rs4988235) polymorphism is commonly evaluated in lactase persistence studies. Lactase non-persistent adults may develop symptoms of lactose intolerance when consuming dairy products. In the Americas, there is no evidence of the consumption of these products until the arrival of Europeans. However, several American countries' dietary guidelines recommend consuming dairy for adequate human nutrition and health promotion. Considering the extensive use of dairy and the complex ancestry of Pan-American admixed populations, we studied the distribution of -13910C > T lactase persistence genotypes and its flanking haplotypes of European origin in 7,428 individuals from several Pan-American admixed populations. We found that the -13910∗T allele frequency in Pan-American admixed populations is directly correlated with allele frequency of the European sources. Moreover, we did not observe any overrepresentation of European haplotypes in the -13910C > T flanking region, suggesting no selective pressure after admixture in the Americas. Finally, considering the dominant effect of the -13910∗T allele, our results indicate that Pan-American admixed populations are likely to have higher frequency of lactose intolerance, suggesting that general dietary guidelines deserve further evaluation across the continent.

Impact of early life geohelminths on wheeze, asthma and atopy in Ecuadorian children at 8 years

BACKGROUND

Early-life exposures to geohelminths may protect against development of wheeze/asthma and atopy.

OBJECTIVE

To study the effect of maternal geohelminths and infections in children during the first 5 years on atopy, wheeze/asthma and airways reactivity/inflammation at 8 years.

METHODS

Birth cohort of 2404 neonates followed to 8 years in rural Ecuador. Data on wheeze/asthma were collected by questionnaire and atopy by skin prick test (SPT) reactivity to 9 allergens. We measured airways reactivity to bronchodilator, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) and nasal eosinophilia. Stool samples were examined for geohelminths by microscopy.

RESULTS

1933 (80.4%) children were evaluated at 8 years. Geohelminths were detected in 45.8% of mothers and 45.5% of children to 5 years. Frequencies of outcomes at 8 years were as follows: wheeze (6.6%), asthma between 5 and 8 years (7.9%), SPT (14.7%), airways reactivity (10%) and elevated FeNO (10.3%) and nasal eosinophilia (9.2%). Any maternal geohelminth was associated with reduced SPT prevalence (OR 0.72). Childhood Trichuris trichiura infections during the first 5 years were associated with reduced wheeze (OR 0.57) but greater parasite burdens with Ascaris lumbricoides at 5 years were associated with increased wheeze (OR 2.83) and asthma (OR 2.60). Associations between maternal geohelminths and wheeze/asthma were modified by atopy. Parasite-specific effects on wheeze/asthma and airways reactivity and inflammation were observed in non-atopic children.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data provide novel evidence for persistent effects of in utero geohelminth exposures on childhood atopy but highlight the complex nature of the relationship between geohelminths and the airways. Registered as an observational study (ISRCTN41239086).

Using the Robson classification to assess caesarean section rates in Brazil: an observational study of more than 24 million births from 2011 to 2017

BACKGROUND

Applying the Robson classification to all births in Brazil, the objectives of our study were to estimate the rates of caesarean section delivery, assess the extent to which caesarean sections were clinically indicated, and identify variation across socioeconomic groups.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based study using routine records of the Live Births Information System in Brazil from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2017. We calculated the relative size of each Robson group; the caesarean section rate; and the contribution to the overall caesarean section rate. We categorised Brazilian municipalities using the Human Development Index to explore caesarean section rates further. We estimated the time trend in caesarean section rates.

RESULTS

The rate of caesarean sections was higher in older and more educated women. Prelabour caesarean sections accounted for more than 54 % of all caesarean deliveries. Women with a previous caesarean section (Group 5) made up the largest group (21.7 %). Groups 6-9, for whom caesarean sections would be indicated in most cases, all had caesarean section rates above 82 %, as did Group 5. The caesarean section rates were higher in municipalities with a higher HDI. The general Brazilian caesarean section rate remained stable during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Brazil is a country with one of the world's highest caesarean section rates. This nationwide population-based study provides the evidence needed to inform efforts to improve the provision of clinically indicated caesarean sections. Our results showed that caesarean section rates were lower among lower socioeconomic groups even when clinically indicated, suggesting sub-optimal access to surgical care.

Risk of mortality for small newborns in Brazil, 2011-2018: A national birth cohort study of 17.6 million records from routine register-based linked data

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth (<37 weeks), low birth weight (LBW,<2500g), and small for gestational age (SGA,<10th centile of birth weight for gestational age and sex) are markers of newborn vulnerability with a high risk of mortality. We estimated the prevalence of phenotypes combining these three markers and quantified the mortality risk associated with them.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study using routine register-based linked data on all births and deaths in Brazil from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2018. We estimated the prevalence of preterm, LBW, and SGA individually and for phenotypes combining these characteristics. The mortality risk associated with each phenotype: early neonatal, late neonatal, neonatal, post-neonatal, infant, 1-4 years, and under five years was quantified using mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models.

FINDINGS

17,646,115 live births were included. Prevalence of preterm birth, LBW and SGA were 9.4%, 9.6% and 9.2%, respectively. Neonatal mortality risk was 16-fold (HR=15.9; 95% CI:15.7-16.1) higher for preterm compared to term, 3 times higher (HR=3.4; (95% CI:3.3-3.4) for SGA compared to adequate for gestational age (AGA), and >25 times higher for LBW (HR=25.8; (95% CI:25.5-26.1) compared to normal birth weight (NBW). 18% of all live births were included in one of the small vulnerable newborn phenotypes. Of those 8.2% were term-SGA (4.7%NBW, 3.5%LBW), 0.6% were term-AGA-LBW, 8.3% preterm-AGA (3.8%NBW, 4.5%LBW) and 1.0% preterm-SGA-LBW. Compared to term-AGA-NBW, the highest mortality risk was for preterm-LBW phenotypes (HR=36.2(95%CI 35.6-36.8) preterm-AGA-LBW, HR=62.0(95%CI 60.8-63.2) preterm-SGA-LBW). The increased mortality risk associated with vulnerable newborn phenotypes was highest in the first month of life, with attenuated but continued high risk in the post-neonatal period and 1-4 years of age.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings support the value of using more detailed phenotypes to identify those at highest risk. More granular data can inform care at the individual level, advance research, especially for prevention, and accelerate progress towards global targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Combined association of obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases with severe COVID-19 outcomes: a nationwide cross-sectional study of 21 773 Brazilian adult and elderly inpatients

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the combined association of obesity, diabetes mellitus (DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) with severe COVID-19 outcomes in adult and elderly inpatients.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study based on registry data from Brazil's influenza surveillance system.

SETTING

Public and private hospitals across Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

Eligible population included 21 942 inpatients aged ≥20 years with positive reverse transcription-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 until 9 June 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Severe COVID-19 outcomes were non-invasive and invasive mechanical ventilation use, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. Multivariate analyses were conducted separately for adults (20-59 years) and elders (≥60 years) to test the combined association of obesity (without and with DM and/or CVD) and degrees of obesity with each outcome.

RESULTS

A sample of 8848 adults and 12 925 elders were included. Among adults, obesity with DM and/or CVD showed higher prevalence of invasive (prevalence ratio 3.76, 95% CI 2.82 to 5.01) and non-invasive mechanical ventilation use (2.06, 1.58 to 2.69), ICU admission (1.60, 1.40 to 1.83) and death (1.79, 1.45 to 2.21) compared with the group without obesity, DM and CVD. In elders, obesity alone (without DM and CVD) had the highest prevalence of ICU admission (1.40, 1.07 to 1.82) and death (1.67, 1.00 to 2.80). In both age groups, obesity alone and combined with DM and/or CVD showed higher prevalence in all outcomes than DM and/or CVD. A dose-response association was observed between obesity and death in adults: class I 1.32 (1.05 to 1.66), class II 1.41 (1.06 to 1.87) and class III 1.77 (1.35 to 2.33).

CONCLUSIONS

The combined association of obesity, diabetes and/or CVD with severe COVID-19 outcomes may be stronger in adults than in elders. Obesity alone and combined with DM and/or CVD had more impact on the risk of COVID-19 severity than DM and/or CVD in both age groups. The study also supports an independent relationship of obesity with severe outcomes, including a dose-response association between degrees of obesity and death in adults.

Patterns of allergic sensitization and factors associated with emergence of sensitization in the rural tropics early in the life course: findings of an Ecuadorian birth cohort

Introduction

There are limited data on emergence of allergic sensitization (or atopy) during childhood in tropical regions.

Methods

We followed a birth cohort of 2404 newborns to 8 years in tropical Ecuador and collected: risk factor data by maternal questionnaires periodically from birth; atopy was measured by skin prick test reactivity (SPT) to aeroallergens in parents, and aeroallergens and food allergens in children at 2, 3, 5, and 8 years; and stool samples for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) from children periodically to 8 years and from parents and household members at the time of recruitment of cohort children. Data on risk factors were measured either at birth or repeatedly (time-varying) from birth to 8 years. Longitudinal repeated-measures analyses were done using generalized estimating equations to estimate an the age-dependent risk of positive SPT (SPT+) to any allergen or mite during early childhood to school age.

Results

SPT+ to any allergen was present in 29.0% of fathers and 24.8% of mothers, and in cohort children increased with age, initially to mite but later to cockroach, reaching 14.8% to any allergen (10.7% mite and 5.3% cockroach) at 8 years. Maternal SPT+, particularly presence of polysensitization (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.49-2.77) significantly increased the risk of SPT+ during childhood, while household overcrowding at birth decreased the risk (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72-0.98). For mite sensitization, maternal polysensitization increased (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.40-3.27) but rural residence (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50-0.94) and birth order (3^rd -4^th vs. 1^st - 2^nd: OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52-0.98) decreased the risk. Time-varying exposures to agricultural activities (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60-0.98) and STH parasites (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.64-0.91) during childhood decreased while anthelmintics increased the childhood risk (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.05-2.05) of mite sensitization.

Conclusion

Our data showed the emergence of allergic sensitization, primarily to mite and cockroach allergens, during childhood in tropical Ecuador. A role for both antenatal and postnatal factors acting as potential determinants of SPT+ emergence was observed.

Mortality amenable to healthcare in Latin American cities: a cross-sectional study examining between-country variation in amenable mortality and the role of urban metrics

Background

This study examined the variation in city-level amenable mortality, i.e. mortality due to conditions that can be mitigated in the presence of timely and effective healthcare, in 363 Latin American cities and measured associations between amenable-mortality rates and urban metrics.

Methods

We used death records from 363 cities with populations of >100 000 people in nine Latin American countries from 2010 to 2016. We calculated sex-specific age-adjusted amenable-mortality rates per 100 000. We fitted multilevel linear models with cities nested within countries and estimated associations between amenable mortality and urban metrics, including population size and growth, fragmentation of urban development and socio-economic status.

Results

Cities in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil had the highest rates of amenable mortality. Overall, >70% of the variability in amenable mortality was due to between-country heterogeneity. But for preventable amenable mortality, those for which the healthcare system can prevent new cases, most of the variability in rates occurred between cities within countries. Population size and fragmentation of urban development were associated with amenable mortality. Higher fragmentation of urban development was associated with lower amenable mortality in small cities and higher amenable mortality in large cities. Population growth and higher city-level socio-economic status were associated with lower amenable mortality.

Conclusions

Most of the variability in amenable mortality in Latin American cities was due to between-county heterogeneity. However, urban metrics such as population size and growth, fragmentation of urban development and city-level socio-economic status may have a role in the distribution of amenable mortality across cities within countries.

Correlation Between SARS-Cov-2 Vaccination, COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality: Tracking the Effect of Vaccination on Population Protection in Real Time

Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has struck the world since the ending of 2019. Tools for pandemic control were scarce, limited only to social distance and face mask usage. Today, upto 12 vaccines were approved and the rapid development raises questions about the vaccine efficiency. We accessed the public database provided by each country and the number of death, active cases, and tests in order to evaluate how the vaccine is influencing the COVID-19 pandemic. We observed distinct profiles across the countries and it was related to the vaccination start date and we are proposing a new way to manage the vaccination.

Factors associated with small- and large-for-gestational-age in socioeconomically vulnerable individuals in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort

BACKGROUND

Evidence points to diverse risk factors associated with small- (SGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) births. A more comprehensive understanding of these factors is imperative, especially in vulnerable populations.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the occurrence of and sociodemographic factors associated with SGA and LGA births in poor and extremely poor populations of Brazil.

METHODS

The study population consisted of women of reproductive age (14-49 y), whose last child was born between 2012 and 2015. INTERGROWTH 21st consortium criteria were used to classify weight for gestational age according to sex. Multinomial logistic regression modeling was performed to investigate associations of interest.

RESULTS

Of 5,521,517 live births analyzed, SGA and LGA corresponded to 7.8% and 17.1%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed greater odds of SGA in children born to women who self-reported as black (OR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.19, 1.22), mixed-race (parda) (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.09), or indigenous (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.15), were unmarried (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.08), illiterate (OR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.42, 1.52), did not receive prenatal care (OR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.53, 1.60), or were aged 14-20 y (OR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.22) or 35-49 y (OR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.13). Considering LGA children, higher odds were found in infants born to women living in households with ≥3 inadequate housing conditions (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.12), in indigenous women (OR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.19, 1.25), those who had 1-3 y of schooling (OR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.19), 1-3 prenatal visits (OR: 1.16; CI 95%: 1.14, 1.17), or were older (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.25, 1.27).

CONCLUSIONS

In poorer Brazilian populations, socioeconomic, racial, and maternal characteristics are consistently associated with the occurrence of SGA births, but remain less clearly linked to the occurrence of LGA births.

A genome-wide association study of severe asthma exacerbations in Latino children and adolescents

Severe asthma exacerbations are a major cause of school absences and healthcare costs in children, particularly those in high-risk racial/ethnic groups.To identify susceptibility genes for severe asthma exacerbations in Latino children and adolescents, we conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 4010 Latino youth with asthma in four independent cohorts, including 1693 Puerto Ricans, 1019 Costa Ricans, 640 Mexicans, 256 Brazilians and 402 members of other Latino subgroups. We then conducted methylation quantitative trait locus, expression quantitative trait locus and expression quantitative trait methylation analyses to assess whether the top single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the meta-analysis is linked to DNA methylation and gene expression in nasal (airway) epithelium in separate cohorts of Puerto Rican and Dutch children and adolescents.In the meta-analysis of GWAS, an SNP in FLJ22447 (rs2253681) was significantly associated with 1.55 increased odds of severe asthma exacerbation (95% CI 1.34-1.79, p=6.3×10-9). This SNP was significantly associated with DNA methylation of a CpG site (cg25024579) at the FLJ22447 locus, which was in turn associated with increased expression of KCNJ2-AS1 in nasal airway epithelium from Puerto Rican children and adolescents (β=0.10, p=2.18×10-7).SNP rs2253681 was significantly associated with both DNA methylation of a cis-CpG in FLJ22447 and severe asthma exacerbations in Latino youth. This may be partly explained by changes in airway epithelial expression of a gene recently implicated in atopic asthma in Puerto Rican children and adolescents (KCNJ2-AS1).

Evaluating the health effect of a Social Housing programme, Minha Casa Minha Vida, using the 100 million Brazilian Cohort: a natural experiment study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Social housing programmes have been shown to influence health, but their effects on cardiovascular mortality and incidence of infectious diseases, such as leprosy and tuberculosis, are unknown. We will use individual administrative data to evaluate the effect of the Brazilian housing programme Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and incidence of leprosy and tuberculosis.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will link the baseline of the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (2001-2015), which includes information on socioeconomic and demographic variables, to the MCMV (2009-2015), CVD mortality (2007-2015), leprosy (2007-2015) and tuberculosis (2007-2015) registries. We will define our exposed population as individuals who signed the contract to receive a house from MCMV, and our non-exposed group will be comparable individuals within the cohort who have not signed a contract for a house at that time. We will estimate the effect of MCMV on health outcomes using different propensity score approaches to control for observed confounders. Follow-up time of individuals will begin at the date of exposure ascertainment and will end at the time a specific outcome occurs, date of death or end of follow-up (31 December 2015). In addition, we will conduct stratified analyses by the follow-up time, age group, race/ethnicity, gender and socioeconomic position.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the ethic committees from Instituto Gonçalo Muniz-Oswaldo Cruz Foundation and University of Glasgow Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences College. Data analysis will be carried out using an anonymised dataset, accessed by researchers in a secure computational environment according to the Centre for Integration of Data and Health Knowledge procedures. Study findings will be published in high quality peer-reviewed research journals and will also be disseminated to policy makers through stakeholder events and policy briefs.