Assessment of health system performance in Germany: Survey-based insights into the perspective of people with private health insurance

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization (WHO) defined intermediate and overall goals to assess the performance of health systems. As the population perspective becomes more important for improving health systems, the aim of this study was to gain insights into the perspective of people with private health insurance (PHI) in Germany along the predefined WHO goals.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2018 among people with PHI in Germany. The questionnaire included items on all intermediate (access, coverage, quality, and safety) and overall WHO goals (improved health, responsiveness, social and financial risk protection, and improved efficiency). Descriptive analyses were conducted for the total sample and subgroups (gender, age, income, and health status).

RESULTS

In total, 3601 respondents (age 58.5 ± 14.6; 64.7% male) assessed the German health system. For example, 3.3%-7.5% of the respondents with subjective needs reported forgone care in the past 12 months due to waiting time, distance, or financial reasons and 14.4% suspected medical errors in their care. During the last physician visit 94.2% experienced respectful treatment but only 60.6% perceived coordination of care as good. Unnecessary health services were perceived by 24.2%. For many items significant subgroup differences were found, particularly for age groups (18-64 vs. 65+).

CONCLUSION

Conducting a health system performance assessment from the population perspective gained new and unique insights into the perception of people with PHI in Germany. Areas to improve the health system were seen in, for example, coordination of care, financial risk protection, and quality of care, and inequalities between subgroups were identified.

A workplace organisational intervention to improve hospital nurses' and physicians' mental health: study protocol for the Magnet4Europe wait list cluster randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

The increasing burden of mental distress reported by healthcare professionals is a matter of serious concern and there is a growing recognition of the role of the workplace in creating this problem. Magnet hospitals, a model shown to attract and retain staff in US research, creates positive work environments that aim to support the well-being of healthcare professionals.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Magnet4Europe is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with wait list controls, designed to evaluate the effects of organisational redesign, based on the Magnet model, on nurses' and physicians' well-being in general acute care hospitals, using a multicomponent implementation strategy. The study will be conducted in more than 60 general acute care hospitals in Belgium, England, Germany, Ireland, Norway and Sweden. The primary outcome is burnout among nurses and physicians, assessed in longitudinal surveys of nurses and physicians at participating hospitals. Additional data will be collected from them on perceived work environments, patient safety and patient quality of care and will be triangulated with data from medical records, including case mix-adjusted in-hospital mortality. The process of implementation will be evaluated using qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the Ethics Committee Research UZ/KU Leuven, Belgium; additionally, ethics approval is obtained in all other participating countries either through a central or decentral authority. Findings will be disseminated at conferences, through peer-reviewed manuscripts and via social media.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN10196901.

Prehabilitation of elderly frail or pre-frail patients prior to elective surgery (PRAEP-GO): study protocol for a randomized, controlled, outcome assessor-blinded trial

BACKGROUND

Frailty is expressed by a reduction in physical capacity, mobility, muscle strength, and endurance. (Pre-)frailty is present in up to 42% of the older surgical population, with an increased risk for peri- and postoperative complications. Consequently, these patients often suffer from a delayed or limited recovery, loss of autonomy and quality of life, and a decrease in functional and cognitive capacities. Since frailty is modifiable, prehabilitation may improve the physiological reserves of patients and reduce the care dependency 12 months after surgery.

METHODS

Patients ≥ 70 years old scheduled for elective surgery or intervention will be recruited in this multicenter, randomized controlled study, with a target of 1400 participants with an allocation ratio of 1:1. The intervention consists of (1) a shared decision-making process with the patient, relatives, and an interdisciplinary and interprofessional team and (2) a 3-week multimodal, individualized prehabilitation program including exercise therapy, nutritional intervention, mobility or balance training, and psychosocial interventions and medical assessment. The frequency of the supervised prehabilitation is 5 times/week for 3 weeks. The primary endpoint is defined as the level of care dependency 12 months after surgery or intervention.

DISCUSSION

Prehabilitation has been proven to be effective for different populations, including colorectal, transplant, and cardiac surgery patients. In contrast, evidence for prehabilitation in older, frail patients has not been clearly established. To the best of our knowledge, this is currently the largest prehabilitation study on older people with frailty undergoing general elective surgery.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04418271 . Registered on 5 June 2020. Universal Trial Number (UTN): U1111-1253-4820.

Health care patterns and policies in 18 European countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: An observational study

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has developed into an unprecedented global challenge. Differences between countries in testing strategies, hospitalization protocols as well as ensuring and managing ICU capacities can illustrate initial responses to a major health system shock, and steer future preparedness activities.

Methods

Publicly available daily data for 18 European countries were retrieved manually from official sources and documented in an Excel table (March–July 2020). The ratio of tests to cases, the share of hospitalizations out of all cases and the share of ICU admissions out of all hospitalizations were computed using 7-day rolling averages per 100 000 population. Information on country policies was collected from the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor of the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies. Information on health care capacities, expenditure and utilization was extracted from the Eurostat health database.

Results

There was substantial variation across countries for all studied variables. In all countries, the ratio of tests to cases increased over time, albeit to varying degrees, while the shares of hospitalizations and ICU admissions stabilized, reflecting the evolution of testing strategies and the adaptation of COVID-19 health care delivery pathways, respectively. Health care patterns for COVID-19 at the outset of the pandemic did not necessarily follow the usual health service delivery pattern of each health system.

Conclusions

This study enables a general understanding of how the early evolution of the pandemic influenced and was influenced by country responses and clearly demonstrates the immense potential for cross-country learning.

Benefit Assessment and Reimbursement of Digital Health Applications: Concepts for Setting Up a New System for Public Coverage

In Germany, some digital health applications (DiHA) became reimbursable through the statutory health insurance system with the adoption of the Digital Healthcare Act in 2019. Approaches and concepts for the German care context were developed in an iterative process, based on existing concepts from international experience. A DiHA categorization was developed that could be used as a basis to enable the creation of a reimbursed DiHA repository, and to derive evidence requirements for coverage and reimbursement for each DiHA. The results provide an overview of a possible classification of DiHA as well as approaches to assessment and evaluation. The structure of remuneration and pricing in connection with the formation of groups is demonstrated.

A country-level analysis comparing hospital capacity and utilisation during the first COVID-19 wave across Europe

BACKGROUND

The exponential increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic created an extraordinary overload and demand on hospitals, especially intensive care units (ICUs), across Europe. European countries have implemented different measures to address the surge ICU capacity, but little is known about the extent. The aim of this paper is to compare the rates of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in acute and ICU care and the levels of national surge capacity for intensive care beds across 16 European countries and Lombardy region during the first wave of the pandemic (28 February to 31 July).

METHODS

For this country level analysis, we used data on SARS-CoV-2 cases, current and/or cumulative hospitalised COVID-19 patients and current and/or cumulative COVID-19 patients in ICU care. To analyse whether capacities were exceeded, we also retrieved information on the numbers of hospital beds, and on (surge) capacity of ICU beds during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic from the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor (HSRM). Treatment days and mean length of hospital stay were calculated to assess hospital utilisation.

RESULTS

Hospital and ICU capacity varied widely across countries. Our results show that utilisation of acute care bed capacity by patients with COVID-19 did not exceed 38.3% in any studied country. However, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Lombardy would not have been able to treat all patients with COVID-19 requiring intensive care during the first wave without an ICU surge capacity. Indicators of hospital utilisation were not consistently related to the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The mean number of hospital days associated with one SARS-CoV-2 case ranged from 1.3 (Norway) to 11.8 (France).

CONCLUSION

In many countries, the increase in ICU capacity was important to accommodate the high demand for intensive care during the first COVID-19 wave.

Reimbursement decisions for medical services in Austria: an analysis of influencing factors for the hospital individual services catalogue between 2008 and 2020

OBJECTIVES

To (1) describe the (evidence-based) reimbursement process of hospital individual services, (2) evaluate the accordance between evidence-based recommendations and reimbursement decision of individual services and (3) elaborate potential aspects that play a role in the decision-making process in Austria.

METHOD

The reimbursement process is described based on selected relevant sources such as official documents. Evidence-based recommendations and subsequent reimbursement decisions for the annual maintenance of the hospital individual service catalogue in Austria between 2008 and 2020 were analysed using a mixed methods approach, encompassing descriptive statistics and a focus group with Austrian decision makers.

RESULTS

118 evidence-based recommendations were analysed. There were 93 (78.8%) negative and 25 (21.2%) positive evidence-based recommendations. In total, 107 out of 118 evidence-based recommendations (90.1%) did not lead to a deviating reimbursement decision. We identified six aspects that may have played a role in the decision-making process for the annual maintenance of the hospital individual service catalogue, with clinical evidence being the most notable. Further aspects included quality assurance/organisational aspects (i.e., structural quality assurance), costs (if comparable to already existing medical services, not: cost-effectiveness), procedural aspects (e.g., if certain criteria for adoption have not been met formally through the proposals), "other countries" (i.e., taking into account how other countries decided) and situational aspects (such as the COVID-19 pandemic).

CONCLUSIONS

There is good accordance between evidence-based recommendations and reimbursement decisions regarding hospital individual services in Austria. Beyond clinical evidence, organisational aspects seem to be considered often with regard to quality assurance but costs do not appear to play a major role. The Austrian system has mechanisms in place that can restrict widespread adoption of novel hospital individual services with uncertain clinical benefits. Future studies could investigate how well these mechanisms work and how they compare to other health systems in Europe.

It probably worked: a Bayesian approach to evaluating the introduction of activity-based hospital payment in Israel

Background

In 2013–2014, Israel accelerated adoption of activity-based payments to hospitals. While the effects of such payments on patient length of stay (LoS) have been examined in several countries, there have been few analyses of incentive effects in the Israeli context of capped reimbursements and stretched resources.

Methods

We examined administrative data from the Israel Ministry of Health for 14 procedures from 2005 to 2016 in all not-for-profit hospitals (97% of the acute care beds). Survival analyses using a Weibull distribution allowed us to examine the non-negative and right-skewed data. We opted for a Bayesian approach to estimate relative change in LoS.

Results

LoS declined in 7 of 14 procedures analyzed, notably, in 6 out of 7 urological procedures. In these procedures, reduction in LoS ranged between 11% and 20%. The estimation results for the control variables are mixed and do not indicate a clear pattern of association with LoS.

Conclusions

The decrease in LoS freed resources to treat other patients, which may have resulted in reduced waiting times. It may have been more feasible to reduce LoS for urological procedures since these had relatively long LoS. Policymakers should pay attention to the effects of decreases in LoS on quality of care. Stretched hospital resources, capped reimbursements, retrospective subsidies and underpriced procedures may have limited hospitals' ability to reduce LoS for other procedures where no decrease occurred (e.g., general surgery).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13584-022-00515-y.

Drawing light from the pandemic: Rethinking strategies for health policy and beyond

The COVID-19 pandemic is a catastrophe. It was also preventable. The potential impacts of a novel pathogen were foreseen and for decades scientists and commentators around the world warned of the threat. Most governments and global institutions failed to heed the warnings or to pay enough attention to risks emerging at the interface of human, animal, and environmental health. We were not ready for COVID-19, and people, economies, and governments around the world have suffered as a result. We must learn from these experiences now and implement transformational changes so that we can prevent future crises, and if and when emergencies do emerge, we can respond in more timely, robust and equitable ways, and minimize immediate and longer-term impacts.

In 2020–21 the Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development assessed the challenges posed by COVID-19 in the WHO European region and the lessons from the response. The Commissioners have addressed health in its entirety, analyzing the interactions between health and sustainable development and considering how other policy priorities can contribute to achieving both. The Commission's final report makes a series of policy recommendations that are evidence-informed and above all actionable. Adopting them would achieve seven key objectives and help build truly sustainable health systems and fairer societies.

The detection and prevention of adverse drug events in nursing home and home care patients: Study protocol of a quasi-experimental study

AIM

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention facilitating the early detection of adverse drug events through the means of health professional training and the application of a digital screening tool.

DESIGN

Multi-centred non-randomized controlled trial from August 2018 to March 2020 including 65 nursing homes or home care providers.

METHODS

We aim to estimate the effect of the intervention on the rate of adverse drug events as primary outcome through a quasi-experimental empirical study design. As secondary outcomes, we use hospital admissions and falls. All outcomes will be measured on patient-month level. Once the causal effect of the intervention is estimated, cost-effectiveness will be calculated. For cost-effectiveness, we include all patient costs observed by the German statutory health insurance.

RESULTS

The results of this study will inform about the cost-effectiveness of the optimized drug supply intervention and provide evidence for potential reimbursement within the German statutory health insurance system.

Rabies mortality and morbidity associated with animal bites in Africa: a case for integrated rabies disease surveillance, prevention and control: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this scoping review was to map the current situation and available evidence and gaps on rabies morbidity, mortality, integrated rabies surveillance programmes, and existing prevention and control strategies in Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic scoping review following the Joanna Briggs methodology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for scoping reviews checklist. Medline, Embase, CINAHL (EBSCOHost), Scopus, Web of Science and rabies web conferences were used to search for peer-reviewed publications between January 1946 and May 2020. Two researchers reviewed the studies and extracted data based on author (year) and region, study design and data collection duration, participants/comparators, interventions, control conditions/exposures and outcomes (rabies mortality and morbidity) and key findings/gaps/challenges. The results were reported narratively using Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework.

RESULTS

Electronic search yielded 2775 records, of which 43 studies were included. A total of 543 714 bite victims were censored through the included studies. Most of the victims were less than 15 years of age. The studies included rabies morbidity (21) and mortality (15) fluctuating in space and time across Africa depending on countries' rabies prevention and control practices (16). Others were surveillance (nine studies); surveillance and prevention (five studies); management and control (seven studies); and surveillance, prevention and control (six studies). We found challenges in rabies reporting, existing dog vaccination programmes and post-exposure prophylaxis availability or compliance.

CONCLUSION

This study found challenges for dog rabies control and elimination in Africa and the need for a policy to drive the goal of zero dog-transmitted rabies to humans by 2030.This is an open-access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build on this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated and the use is non-commercial (see http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

[ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Analysis of Time Stamps in Hospital Administrative Data]

BACKGROUND

German hospital administrative data contain demographic, medical, and administrative information on inpatients, as well as time stamps, such as time of admission or when a medical procedure was carried out. Time stamps allow the calculation of important process indicators which may help to assess quality of care. However, regarding the plausibility of time stamps in German hospital administrative data, no information is as yet available. This study investigates time stamps through the example of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and percutaneous coronary intervention aiming to provide first indications on the plausibility of time stamp documentation.

METHODS

Based on complete national German hospital administrative data (DRG statistics) from 2014 to 2017, all inpatient cases with ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the first admitting hospital were identified. Date and time of admission and date and time of percutaneous coronary intervention were analyzed. Time intervals were calculated as difference between time of admission and time of percutaneous coronary intervention and were categorized in groups.

RESULTS

The analysis of time of admission of inpatient cases with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (n=254,719) showed a pattern with highest frequencies between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. on working days. The pattern of time of percutaneous coronary interventions (n=206,079) was similar but revealed frequency peaks at noon and midnight. The share of inpatient cases with implausible time intervals between time of admission and time of percutaneous coronary intervention declined from 9.5% in 2014 to 7.8% in 2017 and showed high variation on the hospital level.

CONCLUSION

Analyzing time stamps in hospital administrative data may provide valuable information on treatment processes while clinical staff may be released from separate documentation tasks. However, the results of this study indicate that the reliability of time stamps is affected by implausible entries and several uncertainties. The quality of time stamp documentation in German hospital administrative data might be improved by setting incentives for correct documentation and by setting out definite specifications of time points, such as time of admission.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Different spreading dynamics throughout Germany during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a time series study based on national surveillance data

Background

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial differences in incidence rates across Germany.

Methods

Assumption-free k-nearest neighbour clustering from the principal component analysis of weekly incidence rates of German counties groups similar spreading behaviour. Different spreading dynamics was analysed by the derivative plots of the temporal evolution of tuples [x(t),x’(t)] of weekly incidence rates and their derivatives. The effectiveness of the different shutdown measures in Germany during the second wave is assessed by the difference of weekly incidences before and after the respective time periods.

Findings

The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions of different extents resulted in four distinct time periods of complex, spatially diverse, and age-related spreading patterns during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Clustering gave three regions of coincident spreading characteristics. October 2020 showed a nationwide exponential growth of weekly incidence rates with a doubling time of 10 days. A partial shutdown during November 2020 decreased the overall infection rates by 20–40% with a plateau-like behaviour in northern and southwestern Germany. The eastern parts exhibited a further near-linear growth by 30–80%. Allover the incidence rates among people above 60 years still increased by 15–35% during partial shutdown measures. Only an extended shutdown led to a substantial decrease in incidence rates. These measures decreased the numbers among all age groups and in all regions by 15–45%. This decline until January 2021 was about -1•25 times the October 2020 growth rates with a strong correlation of -0•96.

Interpretation

Three regional groups with different dynamics and different degrees of effectiveness of the applied measures were identified. The partial shutdown was moderately effective and at most stopped the exponential growth, but the spread remained partly plateau-like and regionally continued to grow in a nearly linear fashion. Only the extended shutdown reversed the linear growth.

Funding

Institutional support and physical resources were provided by the University Witten/ Herdecke and Kliniken der Stadt Köln, German ministry of education and research ‘Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin’ (NUM), egePan Unimed (01KX2021).

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.