Urban scaling of opioid overdose deaths in the USA: a cross-sectional study in three periods between 2005 and 2017

OBJECTIVES

To describe the association between population size, population growth and opioid overdose deaths-overall and by type of opioid-in US commuting zones (CZs) in three periods between 2005 and 2017.

SETTINGS

741 CZs covering the entirety of the US CZs are aggregations of counties based on commuting patterns that reflect local economies.

PARTICIPANTS

We used mortality data at the county level from 2005 to 2017 from the National Center for Health Statistics.

OUTCOME

Opioid overdose deaths were defined using underlying and contributory causes of death codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10). We used the underlying cause of death to identify all drug poisoning deaths. Contributory cause of death was used to classify opioid overdose deaths according to the three major types of opioid, that is, prescription opioids, heroin and synthetic opioids other than methadone.

RESULTS

Opioid overdose deaths were disproportionally higher in largely populated CZs. A CZ with 1.0% larger population had 1.10%, 1.10%, and 1.16% higher opioid death count in 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2017, respectively. This pattern was largely driven by a high number of deaths involving heroin and synthetic opioids, particularly in 2015-2017. Population growth over time was associated with lower age-adjusted opioid overdose mortality rate: a 1.0% increase in population over time was associated with 1.4% (95% CI: -2.8% to 0.1%), 4.5% (95% CI: -5.8% to -3.2%), and 1.2% (95% CI: -4.2% to 1.8%) lower opioid overdose mortality in 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2017, respectively. The association between positive population growth and lower opioid mortality rates was stronger in larger CZs.

CONCLUSIONS

Opioid overdose mortality in the USA was disproportionately higher in mid-sized and large CZs, particularly those affected by declines in population over time, regardless of the region where they are located.

Racial/ethnic and neighbourhood social vulnerability disparities in COVID-19 testing positivity, hospitalization, and in-hospital mortality in a large hospital system in Pennsylvania: A prospective study of electronic health records

Background

Disparities in COVID-19 mortality by race/ethnicity or neighborhood have been documented using surveillance data. We aimed to describe disparities by race/ethnicity and neighbourhood social vulnerability in COVID-19 positivity, hospitalization, and mortality.

Methods

We obtained data from the electronic health records of all individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 in the University of Pennsylvania Health System (UPHS) or were hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 infection in five UPHS hospitals from March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021. The main predictors were race/ethnicity and neighbourhood-level social vulnerability. The main outcomes were COVID-19 test positivity, hospitalization with COVID-19, and 30-day in-hospital mortality following hospitalization with COVID-19.

Findings

A total of 225,129 unique individuals received COVID-19 testing and 18,995 had a positive test result. A total of 5,794 unique patients were hospitalized with COVID-19 and 511 died in-hospital within 30 days. Racial/ethnic minority groups and residents of higher social vulnerability neighbourhoods had higher test positivity and risk of hospitalization. We did not see in-hospital mortality disparities during the first wave but observed 75% and 68% higher odds of death among Hispanic and Asians compared to Whites during subsequent waves.

Interpretation

We observed significant racial/ethnic and neighbourhood disparities in COVID-19 outcomes, especially test positivity and odds of hospitalization, highlighting the importance of equitably improving access to preventive measures to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infection, including reducing exposure to the virus and ensuring equity in vaccination.

Funding

National Institutes of Health.

The Impact of Keeping Indoor Dining Closed on COVID-19 Rates Among Large US Cities: A Quasi-Experimental Design

BACKGROUND

Indoor dining is one of the potential drivers of COVID-19 transmission. We used the heterogeneity among state government preemption of city indoor dining closures to estimate the impact of keeping indoor dining closed on COVID-19 incidence.

METHODS

We obtained case rates and city or state reopening dates from March to October 2020 in 11 US cities. We categorized cities as treatment cities that were allowed by the state to reopen but kept indoor dining closed or comparison cities that would have kept indoor dining closed but that were preempted by their state and had to reopen indoor dining. We modeled associations using a difference-in-difference approach and an event study specification. We ran negative binomial regression models, with city-day as the unit of analysis, city population as an offset, and controlling for time-varying nonpharmaceutical interventions, as well as city and time fixed effects in sensitivity analysis and the event study specification.

RESULTS

Keeping indoor dining closed was associated with a 55% (IRR = 0.45; 95% confidence intervals = 0.21, 0.99) decline in the new COVID-19 case rate over 6 weeks compared with cities that reopened indoor dining, and these results were consistent after testing alternative modeling strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Keeping indoor dining closed may be directly or indirectly associated with reductions in COVID-19 spread. Evidence of the relationship between indoor dining and COVID-19 case rates can inform policies to restrict indoor dining as a tailored strategy to reduce COVID-19 incidence. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B902.

Accessibility and availability of alcohol outlets around schools: An ecological study in the city of Madrid, Spain, according to socioeconomic area-level

Neighborhood accessibility and availability of alcohol products has been associated with increased alcohol consumption and harms among adolescents. This availability has been shown to be higher in neighborhoods with lower socio-economic status (SES). The aim of this study was to examine inequalities in alcohol outlet density and proximity around schools by area-level SES in Madrid, Spain. Data on schools, SES, alcohol outlets and population density at census tract level were obtained through public databases from the local government of Madrid. We examined (1) density as the number of alcohol outlets around schools within 3 buffers (i.e. 200 m, 400 m and 800 m) and (2) proximity as the distance from schools to their nearest alcohol outlet. We performed multilevel analyses to examine the associations between alcohol outlet density and proximity and SES, adjusted by population density. Secondary schools (n = 576) located in less deprived areas had lower densities of alcohol outlets at walking distances of 200 and 400 m (50% and 37% lower, respectively p < 0.05). No significant differences were found for the proximity measures. The socioeconomic level of the area in which adolescents go to school is a determinant of their exposure to alcohol, where those who study in high SES areas have lower exposure to alcohol outlets. This study highlights the need to prioritize equity in the design and implementation of policies to limit alcohol accessibility among adolescents, including establishing minimum distances between schools and alcohol outlets or limiting the number of outlets per inhabitant in neighborhoods.

Socioeconomic Disparities in Hypertension by Levels of Green Space Availability: A Cross-Sectional Study in Philadelphia, PA

Green spaces have been proposed as equigenic factors, potentially mitigating health disparities. We used data from the 3887 participants residing in Philadelphia who participated in the Public Health Management Corporation’s Southeastern Pennsylvania Household Health Survey in 2014–2015 to assess whether socioeconomic disparities in hypertension are modified by availability of neighborhood-level green spaces. Socioeconomic status (SES) was measured using individual-level education and neighborhood-level median household income. Green space availability was measured using surrounding percent tree canopy cover, mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and proximity to nearest park. Using logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, we found that adults with higher educational attainment had significantly lower levels of hypertension (OR = 0.63, 0.57, and 0.36 for high school, some college, and college graduates, respectively, as compared to those with less than high school education), and this pattern was similar for median household income (higher prevalence in lower income areas). We found no significant interaction between education and percent tree canopy cover (p = 0.83), meaning that educational disparities in hypertension were similar across all levels of green space availability. These results held when using mean NDVI or distance to nearest park as availability measures, or when considering neighborhood-level median household income as the socioeconomic measure, although the specific patterns and significance of interactions varied by exposure and modifier. While socioeconomic disparities in hypertension are strong for adults residing in Philadelphia, green spaces did not seem to modify them.

Urban landscape and street-design factors associated with road-traffic mortality in Latin America between 2010 and 2016 (SALURBAL): an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Road-traffic injuries are a key cause of death and disability in low-income and middle-income countries, but the effect of city characteristics on road-traffic mortality is unknown in these countries. The aim of this study was to determine associations between city-level built environment factors and road-traffic mortality in large Latin American cities.

METHODS

We selected cities from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, and Peru; cities included in the analysis had a population of at least 100 000 people. We extracted data for road-traffic deaths that occurred between 2010 and 2016 from country vital registries. Deaths were grouped by 5-year age groups and sex. Road-traffic deaths were identified using ICD-10 codes, with adjustments for ill-defined codes and incomplete registration. City-level measures included population, urban development, street design, public transportation, and social environment. Associations were estimated using multilevel negative binomial models with robust variances.

FINDINGS

366 cities were included in the analysis. There were 328 408 road-traffic deaths in nearly 3·5 billion person-years across all countries, with an average crude rate of 17·1 deaths per 100 000 person-years. Nearly half of the people who died were younger than 35 years. In multivariable models, road-traffic mortality was higher in cities where urban development was more isolated (rate ratio [RR] 1·05 per 1 SD increase, 95% CI 1·02-1·09), but lower in cities with higher population density (0·94, 0·90-0·98), higher gross domestic product per capita (0·96, 0·94-0·98), and higher intersection density (0·92, 0·89-0·95). Cities with mass transit had lower road mortality rates than did those without (0·92, 0·86-0·99).

INTERPRETATION

Urban development policies that reduce isolated and disconnected urban development and that promote walkable street networks and public transport could be important strategies to reduce road-traffic deaths in Latin America and elsewhere.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Following COVID-19 Vaccination: A Case Report and Literature Review

Mass vaccination against coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has effectively controlled the pandemic and has been remarkably effective and safe. Reports of a few adverse events have been reported after post-marketing surveillance. We present a rare case of multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse in a female who presented with fatigue, involuntary eye movements, and numbness; autoimmunity following the COVID-19 vaccine has also been described. She was diagnosed with MS six years back and was in remission. She received her COVID-19 vaccine 18 days ago. Her clinical and radiological features confirmed the MS relapse. Her serology for COVID-19 immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgM was positive, and she was managed with intravenous methylprednisolone and symptomatic management. Our case provides a possible association of vaccine-associated MS relapse; however, more evidence is warranted from future studies.

Exercise facilities and the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes in the city of Madrid

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to study the association between the availability of exercise facilities and the likelihood of obesity and type 2 diabetes in the adult population of Madrid, Spain.

METHODS

We analysed the electronic medical records of all 1,270,512 residents of Madrid aged 40-75 years in 2017. Exercise facility availability was defined as the count of exercise facilities in a 1000 m street network buffer around each residential building entrance. Poisson regression with standard errors clustered at census tract level was used to assess prevalence ratios of exercise facility availability tertiles and obesity and type 2 diabetes. We also examined stratified results by tertiles of area-level socioeconomic status (SES) and sex.

RESULTS

People living in areas with lower availability of exercise facilities had a higher prevalence of obesity (prevalence ratio [PR] 1.22 [95% CI 1.20, 1.25]) and diabetes (PR 1.38 [95% CI 1.34, 1.43]). We observed effect modification by area-level SES (p<0.001), with stronger associations for residents living in low-SES areas and no association for residents living in high-SES areas. Associations with type 2 diabetes were stronger among women compared with men, while associations with obesity were similar by sex.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

People living in areas with low availability of exercise facilities had a higher prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes, and this association was strongest in low-SES areas and for women. Understanding the potential role of exercise facilities in driving inequities in obesity and type 2 diabetes prevalence may inform interventions to reduce health inequities.

[Epidemiologic evidence on the role of hospitality venues in the transmission of COVID-19: A rapid review of the literature]

OBJECTIVE

To review the scientific epidemiologic evidence on the role of hospitality venues in the incidence or mortality from COVID-19.

METHOD

We included studies conducted in any population, describing either the impact of the closure or reopening of hospitality venues, or exposure to these venues, on the incidence or mortality from COVID-19. We used a snowball sampling approach with backward and forward citation search along with co-citations.

RESULTS

We found 20 articles examining the role of hospitality venues in the epidemiology of COVID-19. Modeling studies showed that interventions reducing social contacts in indoor venues can reduce COVID-19 transmission. Studies using statistical models showed similar results, including that the closure of hospitality venues is amongst the most effective measures in reducing incidence or mortality. Case studies highlighted the role of hospitality venues in generating super-spreading events, along with the importance of airflow and ventilation inside these venues.

CONCLUSIONS

We found consistent results across studies showing that the closure of hospitality venues is amongst the most effective measures to reduce the impact of COVID-19. We also found support for measures limiting capacity and improving ventilation to consider during the re-opening of these venues.

Scaling of mortality in 742 metropolitan areas of the Americas

We explored how mortality scales with city population size using vital registration and population data from 742 cities in 10 Latin American countries and the United States. We found that more populated cities had lower mortality (sublinear scaling), driven by a sublinear pattern in U.S. cities, while Latin American cities had similar mortality across city sizes. Sexually transmitted infections and homicides showed higher rates in larger cities (superlinear scaling). Tuberculosis mortality behaved sublinearly in U.S. and Mexican cities and superlinearly in other Latin American cities. Other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths, and deaths due to noncommunicable diseases were generally sublinear in the United States and linear or superlinear in Latin America. Our findings reveal distinct patterns across the Americas, suggesting no universal relation between city size and mortality, pointing to the importance of understanding the processes that explain heterogeneity in scaling behavior or mortality to further advance urban health policies.

Racial and ethnic inequities in occupational exposure across and between US cities

Research suggests that racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 in the US are largely driven by higher rates of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among Hispanic/Latino and Black populations. Occupational exposures play a large role in structuring risk of exposure, and essential workers are at elevated risk of COVID-19 infection. At a national-level, workers categorized as "essential" and "high-risk" are disproportionately Hispanic/Latino, but we lack analysis examining local-level racial/ethnic disparities in potential occupational exposures. Using the 2015-2019 5-year American Community Survey, we estimated disparities between the proportion of US Born Hispanic/Latino, foreign-born Hispanic/Latino, and non-Hispanic white (NHW) essential or high-risk workers in 27 of the largest metropolitan areas in the country. We found that, on average, 66.3%, 69.9%, and 62.6% of US-born Hispanics, foreign-born Hispanics, and NHW, respectively, are essential workers, while 50.7%, 49.9%, 49.5% are high exposure risk workers, respectively. The median absolute difference in proportions of US born Hispanic/Latino and NHW essential workers was 4.2%, and between foreign-born Hispanic/Latino and NHW essential workers was 7.5%, but these disparities varied widely by city. High likelihood of occupational transmission may help explain disparities in COVID-19 infection and mortality for Hispanic/Latino populations, especially foreign-born, and may also help explain heterogeneity in the magnitude of these disparities, with relevance for other acute infectious respiratory illnesses spread in the workplace.

Interaction Between Alcohol Consumption and PNPLA3 Variant in the Prevalence of Hepatic Steatosis in the US Population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

To our knowledge, the interaction between alcohol consumption and PNPLA3 genotype on hepatic steatosis has not been explored in a representative sample. To examine the interaction between alcohol consumption and PNPLA3 genotype on hepatic steatosis in the US adult population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of 4,674 adult participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, Phase 2 (1991-1994) with data on PNPLA3 genotype, self-reported alcohol consumption, ultrasound-defined hepatic steatosis and socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

In 1991-1994 in the U.S. population, the weighted allele frequency of the G (risk) allele of the rs738409 at PNPLA3 was 25.4%. We confirmed both a J shaped association between alcohol consumption and hepatic steatosis among those with the CC genotype of PNPLA3, and a higher prevalence of hepatic steatosis among those with PNPLA3 gene G variant. We found evidence of an interaction of PNPLA3 G allele presence on the association between moderate alcohol consumption and hepatic steatosis on both the multiplicative (relative prevalence ratio [RPR]=1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-3.65) and additive scales (relative excess risk due to interaction=0.49, 95% CI 0.13-0.85). Compared to never drinkers, moderate alcohol drinking was associated with a 48% decreased risk of hepatic steatosis only among those without PNPLA3 G allele (PR=0.52, 95% CI 0.26-1.05), with no association among those with at least one copy of the PNPLA3 G allele (PR=1.02, 95% CI 0.68-1.54).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that a highly common and strong genetic susceptibility to liver disease is modifiable by the level of alcohol consumption. Keeping alcohol consumption low may offset genetic predisposition to liver disease.

The equigenic effect of greenness on the association between education with life expectancy and mortality in 28 large Latin American cities

BACKGROUND

Recent studies highlight the equigenic potential of greenspaces by showing narrower socioeconomic health inequalities in greener areas. However, results to date have been inconsistent and derived from high-income countries. We examined whether urban greenness modifies the associations between area-level education, as a proxy for socioeconomic status, and life expectancy and cause-specific mortality in Latin American cities.

METHODS

We included 28 large cities, >137 million inhabitants, in nine Latin American countries, comprising 671 sub-city units, for 2012-2016. Socioeconomic status was assessed through a composite index of sub-city level education, and greenness was calculated using the normalized difference vegetation index. We fitted multilevel models with sub-city units nested in cities, with life expectancy or log(mortality) as the outcome.

FINDINGS

We observed a social gradient, with higher levels of education associated with higher life expectancy and lower cause-specific mortality. There was weak evidence supporting the equigenesis hypothesis as greenness differentially modified the association between education and mortality outcomes. We observed an equigenic effect, with doubling magnitudes in the violence-related mortality reduction by education in areas with low greenness compared to medium-high greenness areas among men (16% [95% CI 12%-20%] vs 8% [95% CI 4%-11%] per 1 SD increase in area-level education). However, in contradiction to the equigenesis hypothesis, the magnitude in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality reduction by education was stronger in areas with medium-high greenness compared to areas with low greenness (6% [95% CI 4%-7%] vs 1% [95% CI -1%-3%] and 5% [95% CI 3%-7%] vs 1% [95% CI -1%-3%] per 1 SD increase in area-level education, in women and men, respectively). Similarly, each 1-SD increase in greenness widened the educational inequality in life expectancy by 0.15 years and 0.20 years, in women and men, respectively. The equigenic effect was not observed in violence-related mortality among women and in mortality due to communicable diseases, maternal, neonatal and nutritional conditions (CMNN).

INTERPRETATION

Our results confirm socioeconomic health inequalities in Latin American cities and show that the equigenic properties of greenspace vary by health outcome. Although mixed, our findings suggest that future greening policies should account for local social and economic conditions to ensure that greenspaces provide health benefits for all, and do not further exacerbate existing health inequalities in the region.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust (Grant, 205177/Z/16/Z).

The effect of population mobility on COVID-19 incidence in 314 Latin American cities: a longitudinal ecological study with mobile phone location data

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the effect of changes in mobility at the subcity level on subsequent COVID-19 incidence, which is particularly relevant in Latin America, where substantial barriers prevent COVID-19 vaccine access and non-pharmaceutical interventions are essential to mitigation efforts. We aimed to examine the longitudinal associations between population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level across a large number of Latin American cities.

METHODS

In this longitudinal ecological study, we compiled aggregated mobile phone location data, daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, and features of urban and social environments to analyse population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level among cities with more than 100 000 inhabitants in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico, from March 2 to Aug 29, 2020. Spatially aggregated mobile phone data were provided by the UN Development Programme in Latin America and the Caribbean and Grandata; confirmed COVID-19 cases were from national government reports and population and socioeconomic factors were from the latest national census in each country. We used mixed-effects negative binomial regression for a time-series analysis, to examine longitudinal associations between weekly mobility changes from baseline (prepandemic week of March 2-9, 2020) and subsequent COVID-19 incidence (lagged by 1-6 weeks) at the subcity level, adjusting for urban environmental and socioeconomic factors (time-invariant educational attainment, residential overcrowding, population density [all at the subcity level], and country).

FINDINGS

We included 1031 subcity areas, representing 314 Latin American cities, in Argentina (107 subcity areas), Brazil (416), Colombia (82), Guatemala (20), and Mexico (406). In the main adjusted model, we observed an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 2·35 (95% CI 2·12-2·60) for COVID-19 incidence per log unit increase in the mobility ratio (vs baseline) during the previous week. Thus, 10% lower weekly mobility was associated with 8·6% (95% CI 7·6-9·6) lower incidence of COVID-19 in the following week. This association gradually weakened as the lag between mobility and COVID-19 incidence increased and was not different from null at a 6-week lag.

INTERPRETATION

Reduced population movement within a subcity area is associated with a subsequent decrease in COVID-19 incidence among residents of that subcity area. Policies that reduce population mobility at the subcity level might be an effective COVID-19 mitigation strategy, although they should be combined with strategies that mitigate any adverse social and economic consequences of reduced mobility for the most vulnerable groups.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Built environment profiles for Latin American urban settings: The SALURBAL study

The built environment of cities is complex and influences social and environmental determinants of health. In this study we, 1) identified city profiles based on the built landscape and street design characteristics of cities in Latin America and 2) evaluated the associations of city profiles with social determinants of health and air pollution. Landscape and street design profiles of 370 cities were identified using finite mixture modeling. For landscape, we measured fragmentation, isolation, and shape. For street design, we measured street connectivity, street length, and directness. We fitted a two-level linear mixed model to assess the association of social and environmental determinants of health with the profiles. We identified four profiles for landscape and four for the street design domain. The most common landscape profile was the "proximate stones" characterized by moderate fragmentation, isolation and patch size, and irregular shape. The most common street design profile was the "semi-hyperbolic grid" characterized by moderate connectivity, street length, and directness. The "semi-hyperbolic grid", "spiderweb" and "hyperbolic grid" profiles were positively associated with higher access to piped water and less overcrowding. The "semi-hyperbolic grid" and "spiderweb" profiles were associated with higher air pollution. The "proximate stones" and "proximate inkblots" profiles were associated with higher congestion. In conclusion, there is substantial heterogeneity in the urban landscape and street design profiles of Latin American cities. While we did not find a specific built environment profile that was consistently associated with lower air pollution and better social conditions, the different configurations of the built environments of cities should be considered when planning healthy and sustainable cities in Latin America.

Indoor Dining and In-Person Learning: A Comparison of 30 US Cities

With limited US federal leadership on closing and re-opening strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, cities and states were left to enact their own policies. This article examines two key sets of policies-in-person learning in public elementary schools and indoor dining-across 30 of the largest US cities in the summer, fall, and winter of 2020. We review indoor dining and in-person elementary education policy decisions between 1 May 2020 and 14 December 2020 across 30 US cities. We review the public health evidence, political power, and jurisdictional challenges that cities faced, and the policy implications of these factors. Overwhelmingly, indoor dining re-opened in cities while in-person elementary schools were kept closed; indoor dining re-opened in all cities in fall 2020, while only 40% of public elementary schools re-opened for in-person instruction. Looking ahead to fully bringing students back for in-person learning, and considering future potential community outbreaks, this retrospective analysis can help inform city and state governments on policy decisions around indoor dining and reopening/closing schools for in-person learning.

Urban scaling of opioid analgesic sales in the United States

Opioid misuse is a public health crisis in the United States. The origin of this crisis is associated with a sharp increase in opioid analgesic prescribing. We used the urban scaling framework to analyze opioid prescribing patterns in US commuting zones (CZs), i.e., groups of counties based on commuting patterns. The urban scaling framework postulates that a set of scaling relations can be used to predict health outcomes and behaviors in cities. We used data from the Drug Enforcement Administration’s Automated Reports and Consolidated Ordering System (ARCOS) to calculate counts of oxycodone/hydrocodone pills distributed to 607 CZs in the continental US from 2006 to 2014. We estimated the scaling coefficient of opioid pill counts by regressing log(pills) on log(population) using a piecewise linear spline with a single knot at 82,363. Our results show that CZs with populations below the knot scaled superlinearly (β = 1.36), i.e., larger CZs had disproportionally larger pill counts compared to smaller CZs. On the other hand, CZs with populations above the knot scaled sublinearly (β = 0.92), i.e., larger CZs had disproportionally smaller pill counts compared to smaller CZs. This dual scaling pattern was consistent across US census regions. For CZs with population below the knot, the superlinear scaling of pills is consistent with the explanation that an increased number of successful matches between prescribers and users will lead to higher prescribing rates. The non-linear scaling behavior observed could be the result of a combination of factors, including stronger health care systems and prescribing regulation in largely populated commuting zones, as well as high availability of other opioids such as heroin in these commuting zones. Future research should explore potential mechanisms for the non-linearity of prescription opioid pills.

Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Guatemala

Objectives. To describe excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guatemala during 2020 by week, age, sex, and place of death. Methods. We used mortality data from 2015 to 2020, gathered through the vital registration system of Guatemala. We calculated weekly mortality rates, overall and stratified by age, sex, and place of death. We fitted a generalized additive model to calculate excess deaths, adjusting for seasonality and secular trends and compared excess deaths to the official COVID-19 mortality count. Results. We found an initial decline of 26% in mortality rates during the first weeks of the pandemic in 2020, compared with 2015 to 2019. These declines were sustained through October 2020 for the population younger than 20 years and for deaths in public spaces and returned to normal from July onward in the population aged 20 to 39 years. We found a peak of 73% excess mortality in mid-July, especially in the population aged 40 years or older. We estimated a total of 8036 excess deaths (95% confidence interval = 7935, 8137) in 2020, 46% higher than the official COVID-19 mortality count. Conclusions. The extent of this health crisis is underestimated when COVID-19 confirmed death counts are used. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10): 1839-1846. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306452).

261Can a physical activity supportive environment reduce socioeconomic inequities in incident coronary heart disease?

Background

This research aims to: (1) explore the contribution of physical activity supportive environments to income inequities in coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence, and (2) investigate whether income inequities in CHD incidence are modified by physical activity supportive environments.

Methods

We used data from the REGARDS study, which recruited US-residents aged 45 or older between 2003 and 2007. Our analyses included participants at risk for incident CHD (n = 20808), followed until December 31st 2014. We categorized household income and treated it as ordinal: (1) $75,000+, (2) $35,000-$74,000, (3) $20,000-$34,000, and (4) &lt;$20,000. We operationalized physical activity supportive environments within a 1-km residential buffer as density of walkable destinations and physical activity facilities, and proportion green land cover. Cox models were estimated the adjusted association of income with incident CHD, and tested effect modification by environment variables.

Results

We found a 17% (95% CI 8% to 25%) increased hazard of CHD per decrease in household income category. After adjusting for physical activity environments, the HR was attenuated by 3% (HR = 1.15), and the income-CHD association was stronger in areas lacking walking destinations (HR = 1.54 vs 1.16).

Conclusions

Physical activity supportive environments, especially those with walking destinations, may moderate associations between household income and CHD.

Key messages

Low-income individuals have greater risk of developing CHD, however, the built environment has a small moderating effect on this association. Income inequities in CHD were also noted to be higher in areas with no walking destinations

Educational inequalities, urbanicity and levels of non-communicable diseases risk factors: evaluating trends in Argentina (2005-2013)

BACKGROUND

We investigated a) whether urbanicity is associated with individual-level non-communicable diseases (NCD) risk factors and whether urbanicity modifies trends over time in risk factors; and (b) whether educational inequalities in NCD risk factors change over time or are modified by province urbanicity.

METHODS

We used data from three large national surveys on NCD risk factors (Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo; ENFR2005-2009-2013) conducted in urban areas of Argentina (n = 108,489). We used gender-stratified logistic random-intercept models (individuals nested within provinces) to determine adjusted associations of self-reported individual NCD risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and current smoking) with education and urbanicity.

RESULTS

In both men and women, the prevalence of obesity and diabetes increased over time but smoking decreased. Hypertension prevalence increased over time in men. Higher urbanicity was associated with higher odds of smoking and lower odds of hypertension in women but was not associated with NCD risk factors in men. Obesity increased more over time in more compared to less urbanized provinces (in men) while smoking decreased more over time in less urbanized provinces. All risk factors had a higher prevalence in persons with lower education (stronger in women than in men), except for diabetes in men and smoking in women. Educational inequalities in obesity (in men) and hypertension (in men and women) became stronger over time, while an initial inverse social gradient in smoking for women reverted and became similar to other risk factors over time. In general, the inverse associations of education with the risk factors became stronger with increasing levels of province urbanicity.

CONCLUSION

Increasing prevalence of diabetes and obesity over time and growing inequities by education highlight the need for policies aimed at reducing NCD risk factors among lower socioeconomic populations in urban environments in Argentina.

Mortality amenable to healthcare in Latin American cities: a cross-sectional study examining between-country variation in amenable mortality and the role of urban metrics

Background

This study examined the variation in city-level amenable mortality, i.e. mortality due to conditions that can be mitigated in the presence of timely and effective healthcare, in 363 Latin American cities and measured associations between amenable-mortality rates and urban metrics.

Methods

We used death records from 363 cities with populations of >100 000 people in nine Latin American countries from 2010 to 2016. We calculated sex-specific age-adjusted amenable-mortality rates per 100 000. We fitted multilevel linear models with cities nested within countries and estimated associations between amenable mortality and urban metrics, including population size and growth, fragmentation of urban development and socio-economic status.

Results

Cities in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil had the highest rates of amenable mortality. Overall, >70% of the variability in amenable mortality was due to between-country heterogeneity. But for preventable amenable mortality, those for which the healthcare system can prevent new cases, most of the variability in rates occurred between cities within countries. Population size and fragmentation of urban development were associated with amenable mortality. Higher fragmentation of urban development was associated with lower amenable mortality in small cities and higher amenable mortality in large cities. Population growth and higher city-level socio-economic status were associated with lower amenable mortality.

Conclusions

Most of the variability in amenable mortality in Latin American cities was due to between-county heterogeneity. However, urban metrics such as population size and growth, fragmentation of urban development and city-level socio-economic status may have a role in the distribution of amenable mortality across cities within countries.

Schnake-Mahl and Bilal Respond to "Structural Racism and COVID-19 Mortality in the US"

In their commentary, Zalla et al. argue that the approach taken by Centers for Disease Control (CDC) comparing the proportion of COVID-19 deaths by race/ethnicity to a weighted population distribution ignores how systemic racism structures the composition of places. While the CDC has abandoned their measure, they do so because of the changing geographic distribution of COVID-19, not because the measure underestimates racial disparities. We further Zalla et al.’s argument, advocating for a relational approach to estimating COVID-19 racial inequities that integrates the reciprocal relationship between context and composition through the interaction of places and people over time. To support our argument, we present a series of figures exploring the heterogeneous relationships between places, people, and time, using US county-level publicly available COVID-19 mortality data from February to December 2020 from Johns Hopkins University. Longitudinal and more geographically granular data that allows for disaggregation by person, place, and time will improve our estimation and understanding of inequities in COVID-19.