A new paradigm evaluating cost per cure of HCV infection in the UK

Background

New interferon (IFN)-free treatments for hepatitis C are more effective, safer but more expensive than current IFN-based therapies. Comparative data of these, versus current first generation protease inhibitors (PI) with regard to costs and treatment outcomes are needed. We investigated the real-world effectiveness, safety and cost per cure of 1st generation PI-based therapies in the UK.

Methods

Medical records review of patients within the HCV Research UK database. Patients had received treatment with telaprevir or boceprevir and pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR). Data on treatment outcome, healthcare utilisation and adverse events (AEs) requiring intervention were collected and analysed overall and by subgroups. Costs of visits, tests, therapies, adverse events and hospitalisations were estimated at the patient level. Total cost per cure was calculated as total median cost divided by SVR rate.

Results

154 patients from 35 centres were analysed. Overall median total cost per cure was £44,852 (subgroup range,: £35,492 to £107,288). Total treatment costs were accounted for by PI: 68.3 %, PR: 26.3 %, AE management: 5.4 %. Overall SVR was 62.3 % (range 25 % to 86.2 %). 36 % of patients experienced treatment-related AEs requiring intervention, 10 % required treatment-related hospitalisation.

Conclusions

This is the first UK multicentre study of outcomes and costs of PI-based HCV treatments in clinical practice. There was substantial variation in total cost per cure among patient subgroups and high rates of treatment-related discontinuations, AEs and hospitalisations. Real world safety, effectiveness and total cost per cure for the new IFN free combinations should be compared against this baseline.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s41124-016-0002-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Current knowledge and future perspectives on acute hepatitis C infection

Acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are frequently seen worldwide in certain risk groups, with an annual incidence rate varying between 0.08% and 66%. Although this incidence is substantial, a delayed diagnosis during chronic infection is most often made in the absence of clinical symptoms in the acute phase of the infection. Currently used methods to diagnose acute HCV infection are IgG antibody seroconversion and repeated HCV RNA measurements, although no definitive diagnostic test is currently available. Progress in the field of adaptive and innate immune responses has aided both advances in the field of HCV vaccine development and a more basic understanding of viral persistence. The rapid changes in the treatment of chronic HCV infection will affect therapeutic regimens for acute HCV infection in the coming years, leading to shorter treatment courses and pegylated interferon-free modalities. This review gives an overview of the current knowledge and uncertainties, together with some future perspectives on acute hepatitis C epidemiology, virology, immunology, and treatment.

In silico and in vitro interrogation of a widely used HEV RT-qPCR assay for detection of the species Orthohepevirus A

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection is a public health concern worldwide, associated with waterborne outbreaks in developing countries and reported as an emerging zoonotic infection in high-income countries. A recent consensus proposal classified the isolates from human, swine, wild boar, deer, mongoose, rabbit and camel in seven genotypes within the species Orthohepevirus A. In this report a popular HEV RT-qPCR assay was assessed for the detection of the species Orthohepevirus A. In silico analysis of 189 complete genome sequences showed that the assay targets a highly conserved region in the Orthohepevirus A genome. Additionally, plasmid standards were constructed to test the effect of probe- and primer-binding site mutations in the assay performance. The assay proved robust enough to detect strains with mutations in the probe-binding site and in the 3' end primer-binding site regions. A degenerate version of the reverse primer improves the performance of the assay particularly in the detection of HEV-5 and 6. The addition and detection of MS2 RNA in each RT-qPCR reaction monitored for amplification inhibition and did not affect the performance of the assay in the detection of the HEV RNA international standard. Therefore, the RT-qPCR assay can be confidently used for the RNA detection of the seven genotypes within the species Orthohepevirus A.

Reasons for nonuse of antiviral treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection and thrombocytopaenia: a retrospective chart review from five European countries

Antiviral therapy has been shown to reduce the risk of disease progression, liver damage and death in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. While interferon labels recommend that patients with platelet counts below 50 × 10(3) /μL not receive interferon-based therapy, it is unknown to what extent thrombocytopaenia influences treatment decisions in practice. This study profiles the reasons for withholding antiviral treatment in HCV patients with thrombocytopaenia in five European countries. Medical records of 466 patients who had HCV infection and thrombocytopaenia (platelet count <100 × 10(3) /μL) in 2006 were retrospectively reviewed for clinical characteristics. Collected data included use of antiviral therapy and reasons for withholding therapy. In total 184 of 466 patients (39.5%) did not receive interferon-based therapy during the study period, with treatment withheld most frequently due to multiple clinical characteristics including hepatic cirrhosis (16.3%), thrombocytopaenia (16.3%) and age >60 years (10.9%). The reasons for lack of treatment varied among countries, with thrombocytopaenia as a reason being more common in Italy (10.9%) and Spain (20.0%), and less common in France, Germany and the UK (3.2-7.1%). Overall, thrombocytopaenia was reported as the only reason for withholding treatment in 4.9% of untreated patients. This study demonstrates that thrombocytopaenia is one of many factors, indicative of the poor clinical state of the patient, that contributes to withholding antiviral treatment. In 4.9% of untreated patients, thrombocytopaenia can be considered as a modifiable factor to enable more HCV patients to receive guideline-recommended therapy and thus improved clinical outcomes.

IFNL3 polymorphisms predict response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C genotype 2/3 infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) near the interferon lambda 3 (IFNL3, previously known as IL28B) region are the strongest baseline predictors of sustained virologic response (SVR) to pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy in hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 infection. Whether IFNL3 SNPs influence treatment response in genotype 2 and 3 (HCV-2/3) infection remains controversial. This study sought to clarify in a large cohort, whether SNPs in the IFNL3 region are associated with treatment response in HCV-2/3 patients.

METHODS

The cohort comprised 1002 HCV-2/3 Caucasians patients treated with pegylated interferon-alpha and ribavirin who underwent genotyping for the SNPs rs12979860 and rs8099917.

RESULTS

Overall, 736 (73.5%) patients achieved SVR (81.9%, 67.9%, and 57.8% for rs12979860 CC, CT, and TT [p = 0.0001]; 78%, 68.7%, and 46.3% for rs8099917 TT, TG, and GG [p = 0.0001]). By logistic regression, both rs12979860 CC and rs8099917 TT were independent predictors of SVR with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.39 (1.19-3.81) p = 0.0001 and OR 1.85 (1.15-2.23) p = 0.0001, respectively. IFNL3 responder genotypes were more frequent in relapsers than null-responders (p = 0.0001 for both SNPs). On-treatment rapid virological response (RVR) was predictive of SVR only in those individuals with IFNL3 non-responder genotypes (rs12979860 CT/TT and rs8099917 TG/GG).

CONCLUSIONS

This adequately powered study in patients with HCV genotypes 2 or 3 infection clearly demonstrates that IFNL3 genotypes are the strongest baseline predictor of SVR, in keeping with the known association for genotype 1 infection. IFNL3 genotyping can aid in therapeutic decision making for these patients.

Recombinant human L-ficolin directly neutralizes hepatitis C virus entry

L-ficolin is a soluble pattern recognition molecule expressed by the liver that contributes to innate immune defense against microorganisms. It is well described that binding of L-ficolin to specific pathogen-associated molecular patterns activates the lectin complement pathway, resulting in opsonization and lysis of pathogens. In this study, we demonstrated that in addition to this indirect effect, L-ficolin has a direct neutralizing effect against hepatitis C virus (HCV) entry. Specific, dose-dependent binding of recombinant L-ficolin to HCV glycoproteins E1 and E2 was observed. This interaction was inhibited by soluble L-ficolin ligands. Interaction of L-ficolin with E1 and E2 potently inhibited entry of retroviral pseudoparticles bearing these glycoproteins. L-ficolin also inhibited entry of cell-cultured HCV in a calcium-dependent manner. Neutralizing concentrations of L-ficolin were found to be circulating in the serum of HCV-infected individuals. This is the first description of direct neutralization of HCV entry by a ficolin and highlights a novel role for L-ficolin as a virus entry inhibitor.

The cost of treatment failure: resource use and costs incurred by hepatitis C virus genotype 1-infected patients who do or do not achieve sustained virological response to therapy

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection places a considerable economic burden on health services. Cost-effectiveness analyses of antiviral treatment for patients with chronic HCV infection are dependent on assumptions about cost reductions following sustained virological response (SVR) to therapy. This study quantified the medium-term difference in health resource usage and costs depending on treatment outcome. Retrospective chart review of patients with HCV genotype 1 infection who had received at least 2 months pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy, with known treatment outcome was conducted. Disease status was categorized as chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis or decompensated liver disease. Health resource use was documented for each patient in each disease state. Unit costs were from the NHS 'Payment by Results' database and the British National Formulary. One hundred and ninety three patients (108 SVR, 85 non-SVR) with mean follow-up of 3.5 (SVR) and 4.9 (non-SVR) years were enrolled. No SVR patient progressed to a more severe liver disease state. Annual transition rates for non-SVR patients were 7.4% (chronic hepatitis to cirrhosis) and 4.9% (cirrhosis to decompensated liver disease). By extrapolation of modelled data over a 5-year post-treatment period, failure of patients with chronic hepatitis to achieve SVR was associated with a 13-fold increase (roughly £2300) in costs, whilst for patients who were retreated, the increase was 56-fold, equating to more than £10 000. Achievement of an SVR has significant effects on health service usage and costs. This work provides real-life data for future cost-effectiveness analyses related to the treatment for chronic HCV infection.

Use of short tandem repeat fingerprinting to validate sample origins in hepatitis C virus molecular epidemiology studies

Sequence analysis is used to define the molecular epidemiology and evolution of the hepatitis C virus. Whilst most studies have shown that individual patients harbour viruses that are derived from a limited number of highly related strains, some recent reports have shown that some patients can be co-infected with very distinct variants whose frequency can fluctuate greatly. Whilst co-infection with highly divergent strains is possible, an alternative explanation is that such data represent contamination or sample mix-up. In this study, we have shown that DNA fingerprinting techniques can accurately assess sample provenance and differentiate between samples that are truly exhibiting mixed infection from those that harbour distinct virus populations due to sample mix-up. We have argued that this approach should be adopted routinely in virus sequence analyses to validate sample provenance.

CCR5-Δ32 genotype does not improve predictive value of IL28B polymorphisms for treatment response in chronic HCV infection

IL28B polymorphisms strongly predict spontaneous and treatment-induced clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. A recent study proposed a 32-base pair deletion in the CC-chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) gene (CCR5-Δ32) interacting with the IL28B polymorphisms to influence spontaneous HCV clearance. The aim of this study was to clarify the role of CCR5-Δ32 in treatment-induced clearance of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). A cross-sectional cohort of 813 Caucasian patients with CHC genotype 1 (365 responders and 448 non-responders) who had received standard of care dual therapy with interferon (IFN)-α and ribavirin (RBV) was genotyped for the CCR5-Δ32 and IL28B polymorphisms to examine their interaction with respect to treatment response. CCR5-Δ32 did not influence treatment-induced recovery to IFN-α/RBV in CHC, and did not improve prediction of sustained virological response in the context of the IL28B polymorphisms in a multivariate model. CCR5-Δ32 homozygotes were significantly more frequent in those with CHC than healthy controls in the European cohorts (2.9% vs 0.4%, P<0.0001), but not in Australians of European ancestry. In conclusion, CCR5-Δ32 does not influence treatment response in the context of IL28B polymorphisms. Although CCR5-Δ32 may affect viral clearance within closely controlled geographical and genetic environments, we found no effect in larger cohorts treated with dual therapy.

Osteopontin is a novel downstream target of SOX9 with diagnostic implications for progression of liver fibrosis in humans

Osteopontin (OPN) is an important component of the extracellular matrix (ECM), which promotes liver fibrosis and has been described as a biomarker for its severity. Previously, we have demonstrated that Sex-determining region Y-box 9 (SOX9) is ectopically expressed during activation of hepatic stellate cells (HSC) when it is responsible for the production of type 1 collagen, which causes scar formation in liver fibrosis. Here, we demonstrate that SOX9 regulates OPN. During normal development and in the mature liver, SOX9 and OPN are coexpressed in the biliary duct. In rodent and human models of fibrosis, both proteins were increased and colocalized to fibrotic regions in vivo and in culture-activated HSCs. SOX9 bound a conserved upstream region of the OPN gene, and abrogation of Sox9 in HSCs significantly decreased OPN production. Hedgehog (Hh) signaling has previously been shown to regulate OPN expression directly by glioblastoma (GLI) 1. Our data indicate that in models of liver fibrosis, Hh signaling more likely acts through SOX9 to modulate OPN. In contrast to Gli2 and Gli3, Gli1 is sparse in HSCs and is not increased upon activation. Furthermore, reduction of GLI2, but not GLI3, decreased the expression of both SOX9 and OPN, whereas overexpressing SOX9 or constitutively active GLI2 could rescue the antagonistic effects of cyclopamine on OPN expression.

CONCLUSION

These data reinforce SOX9, downstream of Hh signaling, as a core factor mediating the expression of ECM components involved in liver fibrosis. Understanding the role and regulation of SOX9 during liver fibrosis will provide insight into its potential modulation as an antifibrotic therapy or as a means of identifying potential ECM targets, similar to OPN, as biomarkers of fibrosis.

IL28B, HLA-C, and KIR variants additively predict response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C virus infection in a European Cohort: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

To date, drug response genes have not proved as useful in clinical practice as was anticipated at the start of the genomic era. An exception is in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 infection with pegylated interferon-alpha and ribavirin (PegIFN/R). Viral clearance is achieved in 40%-50% of patients. Interleukin 28B (IL28B) genotype predicts treatment-induced and spontaneous clearance. To improve the predictive value of this genotype, we studied the combined effect of variants of IL28B with human leukocyte antigen C (HLA-C), and its ligands the killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIR), which have previously been implicated in HCV viral control.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We genotyped chronic hepatitis C (CHC) genotype 1 patients with PegIFN/R treatment-induced clearance (n = 417) and treatment failure (n = 493), and 234 individuals with spontaneous clearance, for HLA-C C1 versus C2, presence of inhibitory and activating KIR genes, and two IL28B SNPs, rs8099917 and rs12979860. All individuals were Europeans or of European descent. IL28B SNP rs8099917 "G" was associated with absence of treatment-induced clearance (odds ratio [OR] 2.19, p = 1.27×10(-8), 1.67-2.88) and absence of spontaneous clearance (OR 3.83, p = 1.71×10(-14), 2.67-5.48) of HCV, as was rs12979860, with slightly lower ORs. The HLA-C C2C2 genotype was also over-represented in patients who failed treatment (OR 1.52, p = 0.024, 1.05-2.20), but was not associated with spontaneous clearance. Prediction of treatment failure improved from 66% with IL28B to 80% using both genes in this cohort (OR 3.78, p = 8.83×10(-6), 2.03-7.04). There was evidence that KIR2DL3 and KIR2DS2 carriage also altered HCV treatment response in combination with HLA-C and IL28B.

CONCLUSIONS

Genotyping for IL28B, HLA-C, and KIR genes improves prediction of HCV treatment response. These findings support a role for natural killer (NK) cell activation in PegIFN/R treatment-induced clearance, partially mediated by IL28B.

Identification of improved IL28B SNPs and haplotypes for prediction of drug response in treatment of hepatitis C using massively parallel sequencing in a cross-sectional European cohort

BACKGROUND

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects nearly 3% of the World's population, causing severe liver disease in many. Standard of care therapy is currently pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin (PegIFN/R), which is effective in less than half of those infected with the most common viral genotype. Two IL28B single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs8099917 and rs12979860, predict response to (PegIFN/R) therapy in treatment of HCV infection. These SNPs were identified in genome wide analyses using Illumina genotyping chips. In people of European ancestry, there are 6 common (more than 1%) haplotypes for IL28B, one tagged by the rs8099917 minor allele, four tagged by rs12979860.

METHODS

We used massively parallel sequencing of the IL28B and IL28A gene regions generated by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from pooled DNA samples from 100 responders and 99 non-responders to therapy, to identify common variants. Variants that had high odds ratios and were validated were then genotyped in a cohort of 905 responders and non-responders. Their predictive power was assessed, alone and in combination with HLA-C.

RESULTS

Only SNPs in the IL28B linkage disequilibrium block predicted drug response. Eighteen SNPs were identified with evidence for association with drug response, and with a high degree of confidence in the sequence call. We found that two SNPs, rs4803221 (homozygote minor allele positive predictive value (PPV) of 77%) and rs7248668 (PPV 78%), predicted failure to respond better than the current best, rs8099917 (PPV 73%) and rs12979860 (PPV 68%) in this cross-sectional cohort. The best SNPs tagged a single common haplotype, haplotype 2. Genotypes predicted lack of response better than alleles. However, combination of IL28B haplotype 2 carrier status with the HLA-C C2C2 genotype, which has previously been reported to improve prediction in combination with IL28B, provides the highest PPV (80%). The haplotypes present alternative putative transcription factor binding and methylation sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Massively parallel sequencing allowed identification and comparison of the best common SNPs for identifying treatment failure in therapy for HCV. SNPs tagging a single haplotype have the highest PPV, especially in combination with HLA-C. The functional basis for the association may be due to altered regulation of the gene. These approaches have utility in improving diagnostic testing and identifying causal haplotypes or SNPs.

Hepatitis C patient-derived glycoproteins exhibit marked differences in susceptibility to serum neutralizing antibodies: genetic subtype defines antigenic but not neutralization serotype

Neutralizing antibodies have a role in controlling hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. A successful vaccine will need to elicit potently neutralizing antibodies that are capable of preventing the infection of genetically diverse viral isolates. However, the specificity of the neutralizing antibody response in natural HCV infection still is poorly understood. To address this, we examined the reactivity of polyclonal antibodies isolated from chronic HCV infection to the diverse patient-isolated HCV envelope glycoproteins E1 and E2 (E1E2), and we also examined the potential to neutralize the entry of pseudoparticles bearing these diverse E1E2 proteins. The genetic type of the infection was found to determine the pattern of the antibody recognition of these E1E2 proteins, with the greatest reactivity to homologous E1E2 proteins. This relationship was strongest when the component of the antibody response directed only to linear epitopes was analyzed. In contrast, the neutralization serotype did not correlate with genotype. Instead, serum-derived antibodies displayed a range of neutralization breadth and potency, while different E1E2 glycoproteins displayed different sensitivities to neutralization, such that these could be divided broadly into neutralization-sensitive and -resistant phenotypes. An important additional observation was that entry mediated by some E1E2 proteins was enhanced in the presence of some of the polyclonal antibody fractions isolated during chronic infection. These data highlight the need to use diverse E1E2 isolates, which represent extremes of neutralization sensitivity, when screening antibodies for therapeutic potential and for testing antibodies generated following immunization as part of vaccine development.

Autoantibodies in chronic hepatitis C virus infection and their association with disease profile

Autoantibodies are commonly detected in chronic hepatitis C (HCV) but their significance remains uncertain. We assessed the prevalence of anti-nuclear (ANA) and anti-smooth muscle (ASM) antibodies within a cohort of 963 treatment-naïve HCV patients. We also assessed for differences between autoantibody-positive and autoantibody-negative patients in demographics, markers of disease activity and response to anti-viral treatment. One hundred and seventy-two patients (17.9%) had at least one autoantibody, of which were 104 (10.8%) ASM, 54 (5.6%) ANA and 14 (1.5%) positive for both. Autoantibody-positive patients were older (43 vs 39 years, P = 0.001) caused by an age-related increase in ANA (but not ASM). There were no differences in gender, alcohol intake, ethnicity or viral genotype. The presence of autoantibodies, and specifically ASM, was associated with an increase in interface hepatitis score amongst men (1.1 vs 0.8, P = 0.005) but no difference in other necroinflammatory measures, liver function tests or immunoglobulins (Ig). There was no difference in initial fibrosis stage or rate of fibrosis progression. Autoantibodies did not affect response to anti-viral treatment. We conclude that autoantibodies are frequent in HCV infection. Anti-nuclear antibodies increase with age, whereas ASM antibodies are associated with interface hepatitis in men. Neither autoantibody carries increased risk of fibrosis progression or failure of therapy.

Diagnosis of acute hepatitis C virus infection and estimated incidence in low- and high-risk English populations

The diagnosis of acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is not straightforward; few people exhibit clinical symptoms and genome/antigen detection techniques do not indicate when infection had occurred. Here, a strategy to detect HCV RNA in the absence of antibody ('window-period') for diagnosis of acute infection is assessed. The sentinel surveillance of hepatitis testing study was used to retrospectively identify anti-HCV negative samples from high-risk individuals (2002-2003), for testing singly for HCV RNA. Additional samples were identified prospectively (2005) and tested in pools for HCV RNA. Positive samples were genotyped. Incidence and costs of adopting the pooling strategy were estimated. In the retrospective study, 8/390 (2.1%) samples were confirmed HCV RNA positive, anti-HCV negative. Prospectively, 3237 samples were tested in 325 pools. Five positive pools identified four confirmed HCV RNA positive patients (one false positive). Estimated incidence was 12.9 per 100 person-years in injecting drug users (IDUs) (retrospective study) and 3.7 per 100 person-years among drug/alcohol services and prison attendees (prospective study). Estimated costs were pound 850 per positive sample, in areas of higher risk. The yield from a window-period strategy depends upon the population tested. Pooled HCV RNA testing of anti-HCV negative samples from the current IDUs is realistic and relatively inexpensive to identify recently infected individuals.

Acute hepatitis C virus infection

Around 25% of people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are able to clear the infection spontaneously, while the majority become chronically infected, with a subsequent risk for the individual patient of progressive inflammatory liver disease, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related death (Figure 1). Much is known about the epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis and management of chronic HCV infection. In comparison, knowledge about acute HCV infection is patchy. In this article, we will highlight concerns relating to acute HCV infection and suggest that public health bodies responsible for managing the HCV epidemic should redirect at least some of their resources to dealing with these issues.

Association of antibodies to hepatitis C virus glycoproteins 1 and 2 (anti-E1E2) with HCV disease

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes acute and chronic liver diseases in humans. Its two envelope glycoproteins, E1 and E2, provide a target for host immune recognition. HCV genotypes are classified into six genetic groups. To study the role of anti-HCV E1 and E2 (anti-E1E2) in HCV disease, the correlation between antibody level and viral load, genotype, disease severity and response to treatment was investigated. The levels of antibodies to HCV glycoproteins E1 and E2 antibodies were evaluated in 230 sera of patients with chronic hepatitis C by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The antigens used were recombinant HCV glycoproteins derived from genotype 1 (H77c) and genotype 3 (UKN3A1.28). Seroreactivity was greater when sera were tested against antigen derived from their homologous genotype than against heterologous antigen. Reactivity against UKN3A1.28 in sera from patients infected with genotype 3 was significantly higher than corresponding reactivity between patients infected with genotype 1 and H77c. The seroreactivity was inversely proportional to the viral load and to the degree of liver fibrosis. The pre-treatment level of anti-E1E2 was higher in sustained responders to combination therapy. These results demonstrate that seroreactivity against E1E2 depends upon the genotypic origin of the E1E2 antigens and the infecting genotype, and suggest a possible protective effect of anti-E1E2 against disease progression.

Response rates to combination therapy for chronic HCV infection in a clinical setting and derivation of probability tables for individual patient management

Evidence for efficacy of established treatment guidelines for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease is based on multinational randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Strategies for managing HCV, however, require an assessment of the effectiveness of intervention in routine clinical practice. We report the outcomes of combination therapy in a large cohort of HCV-infected individuals in the UK. A total of 347 (113 genotype 1, 234 genotype non-1) patients were treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin according to current guidelines. Forty-two (37.2%) of those with genotype 1 infection and 164 (70.1%) with genotype non-1 infection achieved sustained viral response (SVR). Thirty-nine (11%) patients withdrew from treatment. In addition to viral genotype, factors predictive of a response to therapy were age at start of treatment and disease stage on pretreatment liver biopsy. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that the effects of age [odds ratio 0.5; 95% confidence interval (0.31-0.82) per 10-year increment (P = 0.006)] were confined to genotype 1 disease. In order to further inform the management of the individual patient, a multivariate logistic model was used to predict the probability of SVR for subgroups defined by disease stage, genotype and age at commencement of therapy. This model revealed striking differences in predicted response rates between subgroups and provided a strong rationale for early treatment, particularly for those with genotype 1 disease. Our study demonstrates that results comparable with those of RCTs can be achieved in clinical practice, and suggests that prediction of response rates based on probability modelling will provide a valuable adjunct to individual patient management.

Determination of the human antibody response to the epitope defined by the hepatitis C virus-neutralizing monoclonal antibody AP33

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of liver disease worldwide and there is a pressing need for the development of a preventative vaccine as well as new treatments. It was recently demonstrated that the mouse monoclonal antibody (mAb) AP33 potently neutralizes infectivity of HCV pseudoparticles (HCVpp) carrying E1E2 envelopes representative of all of the major genotypes of HCV. This study determined the prevalence of human serum antibodies reactive to the region of HCV E2 recognized by AP33. Antibodies recognizing this region were present in less than 2.5 % of sera obtained from individuals with chronic HCV infection. A similar prevalence was found in a smaller cohort of individuals who had experienced an acute infection, suggesting that AP33-like antibodies do not play a major role in natural clearance of HCV infection. Sera exhibited different patterns of reactivity to a panel of peptides representing circulating variants, highlighting the presence of distinct epitopes in this region. Only two sera contained antibodies that could recognize a specific AP33-reactive peptide mimotope. AP33-like antibodies made a measurable contribution to the ability of these sera to inhibit E2-CD81 interaction, but not to the overall neutralization of cell entry. Together, these data show that antibodies to the AP33 epitope are not commonly generated during natural infection and that generation of such antibodies via vaccination may require modified immunogens to focus the generation of specific antibodies. Importantly, individuals harbouring AP33-like antibodies are an important potential source of human mAbs for future therapeutic development.

Excess mortality rates in a cohort of patients infected with the hepatitis C virus: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE

We analysed the Trent Hepatitis C cohort to determine standardised mortality ratios in patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), and to identify risk factors and associations with all-cause and liver-related mortality.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Patients with HCV infection attending secondary care within the Trent region of England.

PATIENTS

2285 patients with hepatitis C, followed for 1 year or more.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The death rate in the cohort was compared to that seen in an age- and sex-matched English population. We performed Cox regression analyses to identify factors predictive of all-cause mortality and deaths from liver disease.

RESULTS

Standardised mortality ratios in the cohort were three times higher than those expected in the general population of England. The excess deaths were due to liver-related causes and those associated with a drug-using lifestyle. Significant independent predictors of all-cause mortality were age, sex, treatment (protective) and liver biopsy fibrosis. Age, treatment, liver biopsy fibrosis and mean alcohol consumption were predictors of liver-related mortality. HCV was mentioned on 23% of death certificates overall, and on 52% of those of patients dying from a liver-related cause.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that the death rate in patients infected with hepatitis C is three times higher than expected. Severity of disease is associated with a worse prognosis, whilst treatment improves outcome, particularly in those who respond. Use of death certificate data on HCV infection for planning purposes will result in considerable under-estimation of the HCV-related disease burden.

The natural history of hepatitis C with severe hepatic fibrosis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To examine the morbidity and mortality of patients with severe fibrosis secondary to HCV infection, within a population unbiased by tertiary referral.

METHODS

One hundred and fifty HCV infected patients were identified from the Trent HCV study with a liver biopsy taken before 2002 demonstrating severe fibrosis (Ishak stage > or =4). Follow-up data were extracted from the database and hospital records.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 51 months. Of the 131 patients with no prior history of decompensation, 33 (25%) died (n=25) or were transplanted (n=8), after a median interval of 42 months. The probability of survival without liver transplantation was 97%, 88%, and 78% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Hepatocellular carcinoma and/or decompensation was diagnosed in 33 (25%), after a median interval of 41 months. In multivariate analysis, combination antiviral therapy was associated with improved survival. Prognosis was not affected by the Ishak stage at index biopsy. There was a worse prognosis for the 19 patients with previous decompensation; 17 (89%) having either died (n=15) or been transplanted (n=2).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that severe liver fibrosis (Ishak stage > or = 4) secondary to hepatitis C is associated with a poor prognosis, that may be improved following combination antiviral treatment.

Severe fibrosis in hepatitis C virus-infected patients is associated with increased activity of the mannan-binding lectin (MBL)/MBL-associated serine protease 1 (MASP-1) complex

Mannan-binding lectin (MBL) binds microorganisms via interactions with glycans on the target surface. Bound MBL subsequently activates MBL-associated serine protease proenzymes (MASPs). A role for MBL in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection had been indicated by previous studies examining MBL levels and polymorphisms in relation to disease progression and response to treatment. We undertook this study to investigate a possible relationship between disease progression and functional MBL/MASP-1 complex activity. A functional assay for MBL/MASP-1 complex activity was employed to examine serum samples from patients with chronic HCV infection, non-HCV liver disease and healthy controls. Intrapatient consistency of MBL/MASP-1 complex activity levels was assessed in sequential samples from a subgroup of patients. Median values of MBL/MASP-1 complex activity were higher in sera from patients with liver disease compared with healthy controls. MBL/MASP-1 complex activity levels correlate with severity of fibrosis after adjusting for confounding factors (P = 0.003). MBL/MASP-1 complex activity was associated more significantly with fibrosis than was MBL concentration. The potential role of MBL/MASP-1 complex activity in disease progression is worthy of further study to investigate possible mechanistic links.