Elevated heart rate at 24-36h after admission and in-hospital mortality in acute in non-arrhythmic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Elevated resting heart rate is associated with worse outcomes in chronic heart failure (HF) but little is known about its prognostic impact in acute setting. The main aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between resting heart rate obtained 24-36h after admission for acute non-arrhythmic HF and in-hospital mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We examined the association of heart rate with in-hospital mortality in a cohort of 712 patients admitted for acute HF. None of the patients had significant arrhythmias, required invasive ventilation, or presented with acute coronary syndrome or primary valvular disease. Forty patients (5.6%) died during the hospital stay. Those patients were significantly older (78±9 vs. 72±12years; p=0.0021), had higher heart rate (92±22 vs. 78±18bpm; p<0.0001), NT pro-BNP (p=0.0005), creatinine (p=0.023), were often diabetics (p=0.026) and had lower systolic and diastolic blood pressures (p<0.05). There was a significant graded relationship between the increase in mortality rate and tertile of heart rate (p<0.01). With multivariable analysis, age (p=0.037), heart rate (p<0.0001), diastolic blood pressure (p<0.001), prior ischemic heart disease (p=0.02) and creatinine (p=0.019) emerged as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. After adjusting for predictors of poor prognosis, patients in the highest heart rate tertile had worst outcomes when compared with those in the lowest heart rate group (p=0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher heart rate 24-36h after admission for acute non-arrhythmic HF is associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Early targeting of elevated heart rate might represent a complementary therapeutic challenge.

Validation of the National Early Warning Score in the prehospital setting

BACKGROUND

Early intervention and response to deranged physiological parameters in the critically ill patient improves outcomes. A National Early Warning Score (NEWS) based on physiological observations has been developed for use throughout the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK. Although a good predictor of mortality and deterioration in inpatients, its performance in the prehospital setting is largely untested. This study aimed to assess the validity of the NEWS in unselected prehospital patients.

METHODS

All clinical observations taken by emergency ambulance crews transporting patients to a single hospital were collated along with information relating to hospital outcome over a two month period. The performance of the NEWS in identifying the endpoints of 48h and 30 day mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and a combined endpoint of 48h mortality or ICU admission was analysed.

RESULTS

1684 patients were analysed. All three of the primary endpoints and the combined endpoint were associated with higher NEWS scores (p<0.01 for each). The medium-risk NEWS group was associated with a statistically significant increase in ICU admission (RR=2.466, 95% CI 1.0-6.09), but not in-hospital mortality relative to the low risk group. The high risk NEWS group had significant increases in 48h mortality (RR 35.32 [10.08-123.7]), 30 day mortality (RR 6.7 [3.79-11.88]), and ICU admission (5.43 [2.29-12.89]). Similar results were noted when trauma and non-trauma patients were analysed separately.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated NEWS among unselected prehospital patients is associated with a higher incidence of adverse outcomes. Calculation of prehospital NEWS may facilitate earlier recognition of deteriorating patients, early involvement of senior Emergency Department staff and appropriate critical care.

Frailty and cardiovascular disease: potential role of gait speed in surgical risk stratification in older adults

Frailty is a state of late life decline and vulnerability, typified by physical weakness and decreased physiologic reserve. The epidemiology and pathophysiology of frailty share features with those of cardiovascular disease. Gait speed can be used as a measure of frailty and is a powerful predictor of mortality. Advancing age is a potent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and has been associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Older adults comprise approximately half of cardiac surgery patients, and account for nearly 80% of the major complications and deaths following surgery. The ability of traditional risk models to predict mortality and major morbidity in older patients being considered for cardiac surgery may improve if frailty, as measured by gait speed, is included in their assessment. It is possible that in the future frailty assessment may assist in choosing among therapies (e.g., surgical vs. percutaneous aortic valve replacement for patients with aortic stenosis).

Risk stratification in early pregnancy for women at increased risk of gestational diabetes

AIM

To evaluate the addition of fasting glucose and lipids to a simple, validated risk prediction tool for gestational diabetes (GDM) applied in early pregnancy.

METHODS

Women at risk of developing GDM on a validated risk prediction tool were recruited in early pregnancy into a large randomised controlled trial. Outcome measures included fasting biochemical markers (glucose, lipids) at 12-15 weeks gestation and GDM diagnosis (28 weeks gestation). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify additional predictive biochemical variables for GDM, with corresponding receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves generated. Unadjusted and adjusted models were derived for both the Australasian Diabetes in Pregnancy (ADIPS) and the International Association for Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG) GDM diagnostic criteria.

RESULTS

51 (23%) Women were diagnosed with GDM based on ADIPS criteria, with 60 (30%) diagnosed based on IADPSG criteria. In all four regression models, fasting glucose was the strongest predictor for GDM development with an odds ratio range of 4.7-6.3 (ADIPS) and 8.8-10 (IADPSG). ROC curves revealed an area under the curve of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72-0.86) for ADIPS criteria and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.77-0.90) for IADPSG criteria for adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

In a two-step approach, when applied with a validated risk prediction tool, fasting glucose in early pregnancy was predictive of GDM and incrementally improved risk identification, presenting potential for an early pregnancy, GDM risk screening strategy for streamlining of pregnancy care and opportunity for preventive intervention.

Thoracic aortic calcification is associated with incident stroke in the general population in addition to established risk factors

AIMS

The aorta is a major source of cerebral thromboembolism, but its role in stroke pathogenesis is not well understood due to its poor accessibility for non-invasive imaging. We examined whether thoracic aortic calcification (TAC), a marker of aortic plaque load, is associated with stroke in addition to established risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 3930 subjects from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study (45-75 years; 47.1% men) without previous stroke, coronary heart disease, or myocardial infarction were evaluated for incident stroke events over 109.0 ± 23.3 months. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to examine associations with stroke of TAC in addition to established risk factors (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, LDL, HDL, diabetes, and smoking) and coronary artery calcification (CAC). 101 incident strokes occurred during the follow-up period. Subjects suffering a stroke had significantly higher TAC values at baseline than the remaining subjects (median = 83.1 [Q1;Q3 = 4.7;472.9] vs. 15.7 [0.0;117.1]; P < 0.001). In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, log(TAC + 1) (hazards ratio [HR] = 1.09 [95% confidence interval = 1.00-1.19]; P = 0.044) was associated with stroke in addition to established risk factors. Further analyses revealed that log(DTAC + 1), i.e. calcification of the descending aorta (1.11 [1.02-1.20]; P = 0.016), but not log(ATAC + 1), i.e. calcification of the ascending aorta (1.02 [0.93-1.11]; P = 0.713), was associated with stroke. The HR for log(TAC + 1) decreased to 1.06 (0.97-1.16; P = 0.202), when log(CAC + 1) was also inserted into multivariable analyses.

CONCLUSION

Calcification of the thoracic aorta, more specifically its descending segment, is associated with incident stroke in addition to established risk factors. CAC outperforms aortic calcification as a stroke predictor.

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy: From genetics to diagnostic and therapeutic challenges

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a genetic disease characterized by myocyte loss and fibro-fatty tissue replacement. Diagnosis of ARVC remains a clinical challenge mainly at its early stages and in patients with minimal echocardiographic right ventricular (RV) abnormalities. ARVC shares some common features with other cardiac diseases, such as RV outflow ventricular tachycardia, Brugada syndrome, and myocarditis, due to arrhythmic expressivity and biventricular involvement. The identification of ARVC can be often challenging, because of the heterogeneous clinical presentation, highly variable intra- and inter-family expressivity and incomplete penetrance. This genotype-phenotype "plasticity" is largely unexplained. A familial history of ARVC is present in 30% to 50% of cases, and the disease is considered a genetic cardiomyopathy, usually inherited in an autosomal dominant pattern with variable penetrance and expressivity; in addition, autosomal recessive forms have been reported (Naxos disease and Carvajal syndrome). Diagnosis of ARVC relays on a scoring system, with major or minor criteria on the Revised Task Force Criteria. Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) are increasingly utilized in patients with ARVC who have survived sudden death (SD) (secondary prevention). However, there are few data available to help identifying ARVC patients in whom the prophylactic implantation of an ICD is truly warranted. Prevention of SD is the primary goal of management. Pharmacologic treatment of arrhythmias, catheter ablation of ventricular tachycardia, and ICD are the mainstay of treatment of ARVC.

The association of resistin with cardiovascular disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To describe the relationship between circulating resistin levels and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause death in a multi-ethnic cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 1913 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with measurements of plasma resistin levels. Absolute proportions experiencing new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF), atherosclerotic CVD (myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke), heart failure (HF), and all-cause death were calculated for each quartile of resistin. We used adjusted Cox proportional regression modeling resistin as a continuous variable per standard deviation of log-transformed resistin and secondarily as a categorical variable using resistin quartiles. Results were stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. The mean age of the population was 64.5 ± 10 years with half being female and a median resistin concentration of 15.1 ng/mL (11.9-19.1). Mean follow-up time was 7.2 ± 1.8 years. There was a graded increase in the occurrence of all outcomes across increasing quartiles of resistin. Modeled as a continuous variable, after adjustment for anthropomorphic measures, traditional risk factors, markers of inflammation, and other adipokines, significant associations were noted for HF (HR 1.4, CI 1.0-2.0), hard and all CVD (HR 1.3, 1.1-1.7 and 1.3, 1.1-1.6, respectively), and CHD (HR 1.31, 1.0-1.6), but not for AF or death. Significant interaction terms were noted between resistin and race, with Hispanic race/ethnicity showing the strongest relationship between resistin and outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In an ethnically diverse population without known CVD at baseline, there was a strong, independent association between higher resistin levels and incident CVD, CHD and HF.

Preoperative predictors of malignancy and unfavorable pathology for clinical T1a tumors treated with partial nephrectomy: a multi-institutional analysis

PURPOSE

To determine preoperative predictors associated with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and unfavorable pathology in small renal masses treated with partial nephrectomy (PN).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

PN records from 5 centers were retrospectively queried for patients with a clinically localized single tumor <4 cm on imaging (clinical T1a). Between 2007 and 2013, 1,009 patients met the inclusion criteria. Unfavorable pathology was defined as any grade III or IV RCC or tumors upstaged to pathologic T3a disease. Logistic regression models were used to determine preoperative characteristics associated with RCC and with unfavorable pathology.

RESULTS

A total of 771 (76.4%) patients were found to have RCC and 198 (19.6%) had unfavorable pathology. On multivariate, bootstrap-adjusted logistic regression analysis, factors associated with the presence of malignancy were imaging tumor size ≥ 3 cm (odds ratio [OR] = 1.46; P = 0.040), male sex (OR = 1.88; P<0.0001), and nephrometry score ≥ 8 (OR = 1.64; P = 0.005). These same factors were independently associated with risk of unfavorable pathology: size ≥ 3 cm (OR = 1.46; P = 0.021), male sex (OR = 2.35; P<0.0001), and nephrometry score ≥ 8 (OR = 1.49; P = 0.015). The c statistic was 0.62 for the predicting malignancy and 0.63 for unfavorable pathology.

CONCLUSIONS

In this multi-institutional cohort, male sex, imaging tumor size ≥ 3 cm, and nephrometry score ≥ 8 were predictors of RCC and adverse pathology following PN. These factors may assist in risk stratification and selective renal mass biopsy before decision making. Further studies are necessary to validate these findings.

Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators in the elderly: rationale and specific age-related considerations

Despite the increasingly high rate of implantation of cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) in elderly patients, data supporting their clinical and cost-effectiveness in this age stratum are ambiguous and contradictory. We comprehensively reviewed the state-of-the-art data regarding the applicability, safety, clinical- and cost-effectiveness of the ICD in elderly patients, and analysed which patients in this age stratum are more likely to get a survival benefit from this therapy. Although peri-procedural risk may be slightly higher in the elderly, this procedure is still relatively safe in this age group. In terms of correcting potentially life-threatening arrhythmias, the effectiveness of ICD therapy is comparable in older and younger individuals. However, the assumption of persistent ICD benefit in the elderly population is questionable, as any advantage of the device on arrhythmic death may be largely attenuated by a higher total non-arrhythmic mortality. While septuagenarians and octogenarians have higher annual all-cause mortality rates, ICD therapy may remain effective in highly selected patients at high risk of arrhythmic death and with minimum comorbidities despite advanced age. ICD intervention among the elderly, as a group, may not be cost-effective, but the procedure may reach cost-effectiveness in those expected to live >5-7 years after implantation. Biological age rather than chronological age per se should be the decisive factor in making a decision on ICD selection for survival benefit.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: patient presentation, risk stratification, and early management

The established quality indicators for early management of upper gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage are based on rapid diagnosis, risk stratification, and early management. Effective preendoscopic treatment may improve survivability of critically ill patients and improve resource allocation for all patients. Accurate risk stratification helps determine the need for hospital admission, hemodynamic monitoring, blood transfusion, and endoscopic hemostasis before esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) via indirect measures such as laboratory studies, physiologic data, and comorbidities. Early management before the definitive EGD is essential to improving outcomes for patients with upper GI bleeding.

Resting heart rate and risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in asymptomatic aortic stenosis: the SEAS study

BACKGROUND

An elevated resting heart rate (RHR) may be an early sign of cardiac failure, but its prognostic value during watchful waiting in asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) is largely unknown.

METHODS

RHR was determined by annual ECGs in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study of asymptomatic mild-to-moderate AS patients. Primary endpoint in this substudy was major cardiovascular events (MCEs) and secondary outcomes its individual components. Multivariable Cox-models using serially-measured RHR were used to examine the prognostic impact of RHR per se.

RESULTS

1563 patients were followed for a mean of 4.3years (6751 patient-years of follow-up), 553 (35%) MCEs occurred, 10% (n=151) died, including 75 cardiovascular deaths. In multivariable analysis, baseline RHR was independently associated with MCEs (HR 1.1 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.0-1.3) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.3 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.0-1.7, both p≤0.03). Updating RHR with annual in-study reexaminations, time-varying RHR was highly associated with excess MCEs (HR 1.1 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.1-1.3) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.4 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7, both p≤0.006). The association of RHR with MCEs and cardiovascular mortality was not dependent on atrial fibrillation status (both p≥0.06 for interaction).

CONCLUSIONS

RHR is independently associated with MCEs and cardiovascular death in asymptomatic AS (Clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier NCT00092677).

Incorporating temporal EHR data in predictive models for risk stratification of renal function deterioration

Predictive models built using temporal data in electronic health records (EHRs) can potentially play a major role in improving management of chronic diseases. However, these data present a multitude of technical challenges, including irregular sampling of data and varying length of available patient history. In this paper, we describe and evaluate three different approaches that use machine learning to build predictive models using temporal EHR data of a patient. The first approach is a commonly used non-temporal approach that aggregates values of the predictors in the patient's medical history. The other two approaches exploit the temporal dynamics of the data. The two temporal approaches vary in how they model temporal information and handle missing data. Using data from the EHR of Mount Sinai Medical Center, we learned and evaluated the models in the context of predicting loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), the most common assessment of kidney function. Our results show that incorporating temporal information in patient's medical history can lead to better prediction of loss of kidney function. They also demonstrate that exactly how this information is incorporated is important. In particular, our results demonstrate that the relative importance of different predictors varies over time, and that using multi-task learning to account for this is an appropriate way to robustly capture the temporal dynamics in EHR data. Using a case study, we also demonstrate how the multi-task learning based model can yield predictive models with better performance for identifying patients at high risk of short-term loss of kidney function.

T-wave inversion in patients with acute pulmonary embolism: prognostic value

INTRODUCTION

T-wave inversion (TWI) is a common ECG finding in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

OBJECTIVES

To determine the prevalence of TWI in patients with APE and to describe their relationship to outcomes.

METHODS

Retrospective study of 437 patients with APE. TWI patterns were described in two distributions: inferior (II, III, aVF) and precordial (V1-V6).

RESULTS

TWI was observed in 258 (59%) patients. The mortality rate was significantly higher in the group with TWI in the inferior AND precordial leads compared to the group without TWI (OR: 2.74; p = 0.024) and the group with TWI in the inferior OR precordial leads (OR: 2.43; p = 0.035). As compared those with TWI in <5 leads, patients with TWI in ≥5 leads experienced significantly higher rates of death (17.1% vs. 6.6%, OR: 2.92; p = 0.002) and complications.

CONCLUSIONS

TWI and the quantitative assessment thereof can be useful to risk stratify patients with APE.

Comparative accuracy of different risk scores in assessing cardiovascular risk in Indians: a study in patients with first myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Although a number of risk assessment models are available for estimating 10-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in patients requiring primary prevention of CV disease, the predictive accuracy of the contemporary risk models has not been adequately evaluated in Indians.

METHODS

149 patients [mean age 59.4 ± 10.6 years; 123 (82.6%) males] without prior CV disease and presenting with acute myocardial infarction (MI) were included. The four clinically most relevant risk assessment models [Framingham Risk score (RiskFRS), World Health Organization risk prediction charts (RiskWHO), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (RiskACC/AHA) and the 3rd Joint British Societies' risk calculator (RiskJBS)] were applied to estimate what would have been their predicted 10-year risk of CV events if they had presented just prior to suffering the acute MI.

RESULTS

RiskWHO provided the lowest risk estimates with 86.6% patients estimated to be having <20% 10-year risk. In comparison, RiskFRS and RiskACC/AHA returned higher risk estimates (61.7% and 69.8% with risk <20%, respectively; p values <0.001 for comparison with RiskWHO). However, the RiskJBS identified the highest proportion of the patients as being at high-risk (only 44.1% at <20% risk, p values 0 < 0.01 for comparison with all the other 3 risk scores).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to show that in Indian patients presenting with acute MI, RiskJBS is likely to identify the largest proportion of the patients as at 'high-risk' as compared to RiskWHO, RiskFRS and RiskACC/AHA. However, large-scale prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Active surveillance for prostate cancer: a systematic review of clinicopathologic variables and biomarkers for risk stratification

CONTEXT

Active surveillance (AS) is an important strategy to reduce prostate cancer overtreatment. However, the optimal criteria for eligibility and predictors of progression while on AS are debated.

OBJECTIVE

To review primary data on markers, genetic factors, and risk stratification for patient selection and predictors of progression during AS.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Electronic searches were conducted in PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) from inception to April 2014 for original articles on biomarkers and risk stratification for AS.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Patient factors associated with AS outcomes in some studies include age, race, and family history. Multiple studies provide consistent evidence that a lower percentage of free prostate-specific antigen (PSA), a higher Prostate Health Index (PHI), a higher PSA density (PSAD), and greater biopsy core involvement at baseline predict a greater risk of progression. During follow-up, serial measurements of PHI and PSAD, as well as repeat biopsy results, predict later biopsy progression. While some studies have suggested a univariate relationship between urinary prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) and transmembrane protease, serine 2-v-ets avian erythroblastosis virus E26 oncogene homolog gene fusion (TMPRSS2:ERG) with adverse biopsy features, these markers have not been consistently shown to independently predict AS outcomes. No conclusive data support the use of genetic tests in AS. Limitations of these studies include heterogeneous definitions of progression and limited follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a growing body of literature on patient characteristics, biopsy features, and biomarkers with potential utility in AS. More data are needed on practical applications such as combining these tests into multivariable clinical algorithms and long-term outcomes to further improve AS in the future.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Several PSA-based tests (free PSA, PHI, PSAD) and the extent of cancer on biopsy can help to stratify the risk of progression during active surveillance. Investigation of several other markers is under way.

Opportunities and challenges of proteomics in pediatric patients: circulating biomarkers after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation as a successful example

Biomarkers have the potential to improve diagnosis and prognosis, facilitate-targeted treatment, and reduce health care costs. Thus, there is great hope that biomarkers will be integrated in all clinical decisions in the near future. A decade ago, the biomarker field was launched with great enthusiasm because MS revealed that blood contains a rich library of candidate biomarkers. However, biomarker research has not yet delivered on its promise due to several limitations: (i) improper sample handling and tracking as well as limited sample availability in the pediatric population, (ii) omission of appropriate controls in original study designs, (iii) lability and low abundance of interesting biomarkers in blood, and (iv) the inability to mechanistically tie biomarker presence to disease biology. These limitations as well as successful strategies to overcome them are discussed in this review. Several advances in biomarker discovery and validation have been made in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, the current most effective tumor immunotherapy, and these could serve as examples for other conditions. This review provides fresh optimism that biomarkers clinically relevant in pediatrics are closer to being realized based on: (i) a uniform protocol for low-volume blood collection and preservation, (ii) inclusion of well-controlled independent cohorts, (iii) novel technologies and instrumentation with low analytical sensitivity, and (iv) integrated animal models for exploring potential biomarkers and targeted therapies.

[Interdisciplinary and individualized therapy of prostate cancer : International prostate cancer symposium Bonn 2013 - challenges and targets]

Multimodal treatment of prostate cancer is based on specific staging via imaging, clinical parameters, tumor markers and histopathological grading. Risk-adapted therapy encompasses wait and see, active surveillance, surgical intervention, radiotherapy and hormone therapy. Some patients also need a combination of these treatment options. Even though clinical parameters guide the treatment plan, patient wishes and preferences are incorporated. Against this background leading basic research scientists, urologists, radiotherapists, epidemiologists and members of other associated disciplines discussed state of the art treatment concepts, innovative trial designs and translational research projects at the international meeting "Challenges and Chances in Prostate Cancer Research" organized by the German Cancer Aid (Deutsche Krebshilfe).

Right ventricular dysfunction, late gadolinium enhancement, and female gender predict poor outcome in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy

AIMS

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) shows a variable disease course and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. So far, left ventricular function (LVF) is the major determinant for risk stratification. However, since it has shown to be a poor guide to individual outcome, we studied the prognostic value of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) parameters, late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT).

METHODS AND RESULTS

140 patients with DCM underwent late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) CMR. During a median follow-up of 3 years, 22 patients (16%) died and another 51 (36%) were hospitalized due to congestive heart failure (CHF). Female gender and right ventricular ejection fraction (RV-EF) below the median of 38% were independent predictors of all-cause mortality in multivariable analysis. In patients who were hospitalized due to CHF, RV-EF below the median of 38% was the only independent predictor in multivariable analysis. When patients where further stratified according to systolic LV-EF, the prognostic value of RV-EF to predict mortality and cardiac morbidity remained unchanged. Looking at DCM patients who died during follow-up compared to those who were hospitalized due to CHF, the former presented with a higher prevalence of LGE as well as reduced indexed EAT.

CONCLUSION

Female gender, RV-EF and the presence of LGE are of prognostic importance in patients with DCM. Therefore, the present study underlines the role of CMR as an important tool for risk stratification in patients with DCM.

Differentiated thyroid cancer and pregnancy

Thyroid cancer is second most common malignancy diagnosed during pregnancy. Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is more common in reproductive age group due to its association with oestrogen and human chorionic gonadotropin. Evaluation and management of DTC has changed from an aggressive approach, now, to a more conservative approach. Management of DTC must be coordinated among the different specialists which include the surgeon, endocrinologist, radiologist, pathologist and, in pregnant patients, the obstetrician. Generally, DTC can be postponed till delivery, but exceptions include airway compromise, aggressive cytologic features, invasion of surrounding tissue, extracapsular spread and poor prognostic factors.

Risk stratification of HBV infection in Asia-Pacific region

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the major etiology of chronic liver disease worldwide and thus a global health problem, especially in Asia-Pacific region. The long-term outcomes of Asian HBV carriers vary widely; however, a significant proportion of them will finally develop end-stage liver disease. Over the past decade, several host and HBV factors predictive of clinical outcomes in Asian HBV carriers have been identified. The community-based REVEAL-HBV study illustrated the strong association between HBV-DNA level at study entry and risk of HCC over time, and male gender, older age, high serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level, positive HBeAg, higher HBV-DNA level, HBV genotype C infection and core promoter mutation are independently associated with a higher hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. Another hospital-based ERADICATE-B cohort further validated the HCC risk started to increase when HBV-DNA level was higher than 2,000 IU/mL. Of particular note, in patients with low viral load (HBV-DNA level <2,000 IU/mL), HBsAg level ≥1,000 IU/mL was a new independent risk factor for HCC. With the results from REVEAL-HBV study, a risk calculator for predicting HCC in adult non-cirrhotic patients has been developed and validated by independent international cohorts (REACH-B). With the combination of HBV-DNA, HBsAg, and ALT levels, ERADICATE-B study proposed an algorithm to predict disease progression and categorize risk levels of HCC as well as corresponding management in Asian HBV carriers. The introduction of transient elastography may further enhance the predictive power. In conclusion, HBsAg level can complement HBV-DNA level for the risk stratification of disease progression in Asian adult patients with chronic HBV infection.

Risk assessment of ischemic stroke associated pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Cerebral stroke is a disease with a high disability rate and a high fatality rate. This study was undertaken to assess the risk of stroke associated pneumonia (SAP) in patients with ischemic stroke using A2DS2 score.

METHODS

Altogether 1 279 patients with ischemic stroke who were treated in our department from 2009 to 2011 were retrospectively analyzed with A2DS2 score. A2DS2 score was calculated as follows: age ≥75 years=1, atrial fibrillation=1, dysphagia=2, male sex=1; stroke severity: NIHSS score 0-4=0, 5-15=3, ≥16=5. The patients were divided into three groups according to A2DS2 score: 620 in score 0 group, 383 in score 1-9 group, and 276 in score ≥10 group. The three groups were comparatively analyzed. The diagnostic criteria for SAP were as follows: newly emerging lesions or progressively infiltrating lesions on post-stroke chest images combined with more than two of the following clinical symptoms of infection: (1) fever ≥38 °C; (2) newly occurred cough, productive cough or exacerbation of preexisting respiratory tract symptoms with or without chest pain; (3) signs of pulmonary consolidation and/or wet rales; (4) peripheral white blood cell count ≥10×10(9)/L or ≤4×10(9)/L with or without nuclear shift to left, while excluding some diseases with clinical manifestations similar to pneumonia, such as tuberculosis, pulmonary tumors, non-infectious interstitial lung disease, pulmonary edema, pulmonary embolism and atelectasis. The incidence and mortality of SAP as well as the correlation with ischemic stroke site were analyzed in the three groups respectively. Mean± standard deviation was used to represent measurement data with normal distribution and Student's t test was used. The chi-square test was used to calculate the percentage for enumeration data.

RESULTS

The incidence of SAP was significantly higher in the A2DS2 score≥10 group than that in the score 1-9 and score 0 groups (71.7% vs. 22.7%, 71.7% vs. 3.7%, respectively), whereas the mortality in the score≥10 group was significantly higher than that in the score 1-9 and score 0 groups (16.7% vs. 4.96%, 16.7% vs. 0.3%, respectively). The incidences of cerebral infarction in posterior circulation and cross-MCA, ACA distribution areas were significantly higher than those in the SAP group and in the non-SAP group (35.1% vs.10.1%, 11.4% vs. 7.5%, respectively). The incidence of non-fermentative bacteria infection was significantly increased in the score≥10 group.

CONCLUSIONS

A2DS2 score provides a basis for risk stratification of SAP. The prevention of SAP needs to be strengthened in acute ischemic stroke patients with a A2DS2 score≥10.

Neutropenic fever

Fever is a common presenting complaint among adult or pediatric patients in the emergency department setting. Although fever in healthy individuals does not necessarily indicate severe illness, fever in patients with neutropenia may herald a life-threatening infection. Therefore, prompt recognition of patients with neutropenic fever is imperative. Serious bacterial illness is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality for neutropenic patients. Neutropenic fever should trigger the initiation of a rapid work-up and the administration of empiric systemic antibiotic therapy to attenuate or avoid the progression along the spectrum of sepsis, severe sepsis, septic shock syndrome, and death.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation in the elderly: who to refer?

In recent years, experience with transcatheter aortic valve implantation has led to improved outcomes in elderly patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) who may not have previously been considered for intervention. These patients are often frail with significant comorbid conditions. As the prevalence of AS increases, there is a need for improved assessment parameters to determine the patients most likely to benefit from this novel procedure. This review discusses the diagnostic criteria for severe AS and the trials available to aid in the decision to refer for aortic valve procedures in the elderly.

Risk stratification in very old adults: how to best gauge risk as the basis of management choices for patients aged over 80

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in older adults, however, in the elderly accurate stratification of CVD risk to guide management decisions is challenging due to the heterogeneity of the population. Conventional assessment of CVD and therapeutic risk is based on extrapolation of guidelines developed from evidence demonstrated in younger individuals and fails to weight the increased burden of complications and multimorbidity. Using a comprehensive geriatric based assessment of older adults with CVD that includes an estimation of complexity of multimorbidity as well as traditional risk assessment provides a patient centered approach that allows for management decisions congruent with patient preferences. This review examines the complexity of risk stratification in adults over 80, assessment methods to augment current tools and the basis of management decisions to optimize patient and family centered goals.

Postoperative pulmonary complications updating

Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are a major contributor to the overall risk of surgery. PPCs affect the length of hospital stay and are associated with a higher in-hospital mortality. PPCs are even the leading cause of death either in cardiothoracic surgery but also in non-cardiothoracic surgery. Thus, reliable PPCs risk stratification tools are the key issue of clinical decision making in the perioperative period. When the risk is clearly identified related to the patient according the ARISCAT score and/or the type of surgery (mainly thoracic and abdominal), low-cost preemptive interventions improve outcomes and new strategies can be developed to prevent this risk. The EuSOS, PERISCOPE and IMPROVE studies demonstrated this care optimization by risk identification first, then risk stratification and new care (multifaceted) strategies implementation allowing a decrease in PPCs mortality by optimizing the clinical path of the patient and the care resources.

Risk stratification for ST segment elevation myocardial infarction in the era of primary percutaneous coronary intervention

Acute coronary syndromes presenting with ST elevation are usually treated with emergency reperfusion/revascularisation therapy. In contrast current evidence and national guidelines recommend risk stratification for non ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) with the decision on revascularisation dependent on perceived clinical risk. Risk stratification for STEMI has no recommendation. Statistical risk scoring techniques in NSTEMI have been demonstrated to improve outcomes however their uptake has been poor perhaps due to questions over their discrimination and concern for application to individuals who may not have been adequately represented in clinical trials. STEMI is perceived to carry sufficient risk to warrant emergency coronary intervention [by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)] even if this results in a delay to reperfusion with immediate thrombolysis. Immediate thrombolysis may be as effective in patients presenting early, or at low risk, but physicians are poor at assessing clinical and procedural risks and currently are not required to consider this. Inadequate data on risk stratification in STEMI inhibits the option of immediate fibrinolysis, which may be cost-effective. Currently the mode of reperfusion for STEMI defaults to emergency angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention ignoring alternative strategies. This review article examines the current risk scores and evidence base for risk stratification for STEMI patients. The requirements for an ideal STEMI risk score are discussed.

Acute isolated dysarthria is associated with a high risk of stroke

Background

Isolated dysarthria is an uncommon presentation of transient ischemic attack (TIA)/minor stroke and has a broad differential diagnosis. There is little information in the literature about how often this presentation is confirmed to be a TIA/stroke, and therefore there is debate about the risk of subsequent vascular events. Given the uncertain prognosis, it is unclear how to best manage patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with isolated dysarthria. The objective of this study was to prospectively identify and follow a cohort of patients presenting to EDs with isolated dysarthria in order to explore their natural history and risk of recurrent cerebrovascular events. Specifically, we sought to determine early outcomes of individuals with this nonspecific and atypical presentation in order to appropriately expedite their management.

Methods

Patients with isolated dysarthria having presented to 8 Canadian EDs between October 2006 and April 2009 were analyzed as part of a prospective multicenter cohort study of patients with acute neurological symptoms as assessed by emergency physicians. The study inclusion criteria were age ≥18 years, a normal level of consciousness, and a symptom onset <1 week prior to presentation without an established nonvascular etiology. The primary outcome was a subsequent stroke within 90 days of the index visit. The secondary outcomes were the rate of TIA, myocardial infarction, and death. Isolated dysarthria was defined as slurring with imprecise articulation but without evidence of language dysfunction. The overall rate of stroke in this cohort was compared with that predicted by the median ABCD2 score for this group.

Results

Between 2006 and 2009, 1,528 patients were enrolled and had a 90-day follow-up. Of these, 43 patients presented with isolated acute-onset dysarthria (2.8%). Recurrent stroke occurred in 6/43 (14.0%) within 90 days of enrollment. The predicted maximal 90-day stroke rate was 9.8% (based on a median ABCD2 score of 5 for the isolated dysarthria cohort). After adjusting for covariates, isolated dysarthria independently predicted stroke within 90 days (aOR: 3.96; 95% CI: 1.3-11.9; p = 0.014).

Conclusions

The isolated dysarthria cohort carried a recurrent stroke risk comparable to that predicted by the median ABCD2 scores. Although isolated dysarthria is a nonspecific and uncommon clinical presentation of TIA, these findings support the need to view it first and foremost as a vascular presentation until proven otherwise and to manage such patients as if they were at high risk of stroke in accordance with established high-risk TIA guidelines.

Early phase of acute pancreatitis: Assessment and management

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening disease with a wide spectrum of severity. The overall mortality of AP is approximately 5%. According to the revised Atlanta classification system, AP can be classified as mild, moderate, or severe. Severe AP often takes a clinical course with two phases, an early and a late phase, which should both be considered separately. In this review article, we first discuss general aspects of AP, including incidence, pathophysiology, etiology, and grading of severity, then focus on the assessment of patients with suspected AP, including diagnosis and risk stratification, followed by the management of AP during the early phase, with special emphasis on fluid therapy, pain management, nutrition, and antibiotic prophylaxis.

European perspective on multiple myeloma treatment strategies in 2014

The treatment of multiple myeloma has undergone significant changes and has resulted in the achievement of molecular remissions, the prolongation of remission duration, and extended survival becoming realistic goals, with a cure being possible in a small but growing number of patients. In addition, nowadays it is possible to categorize patients more precisely into different risk groups, thus allowing the evaluation of therapies in different settings and enabling a better comparison of results across trials. Here, we review the evidence from clinical studies, which forms the basis for our recommendations for the management of patients with myeloma. Treatment approaches depend on "fitness," with chronological age still being an important discriminator for selecting therapy. In younger, fit patients, a short three drug-based induction treatment followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) remains the preferred option. Consolidation and maintenance therapy are attractive strategies not yet approved by the European Medicines Agency, and a decision regarding post-ASCT therapy should only be made after detailed discussion of the pros and cons with the individual patient. Two- and three-drug combinations are recommended for patients not eligible for transplantation. Treatment should be administered for at least nine cycles, although different durations of initial therapy have only rarely been compared so far. Comorbidity and frailty should be thoroughly assessed in elderly patients, and treatment must be adapted to individual needs, carefully selecting appropriate drugs and doses. A substantial number of new drugs and novel drug classes in early clinical development have shown promising activity. Their introduction into clinical practice will most likely further improve treatment results.

Diagnosis and risk stratification in multiple myeloma

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a tumor of monoclonal plasma cells, which produce a monoclonal antibody and expand predominantly in the bone marrow. Patients present with hypercalcemia, renal impairment, anemia, and/or bone disease. Only patients with symptomatic MM require therapy, whereas asymptomatic patients receive regular follow-up. Survival of patients with MM is very heterogeneous. The variety in outcome is explained by host factors as well as tumor-related characteristics reflecting biology of the MM clone and tumor burden. The identification of cytogenetic abnormalities by fluorescence in situ hybridization is currently the most important and widely available prognostic factor in MM.

Testing calibration of risk models at extremes of disease risk

Risk-prediction models need careful calibration to ensure they produce unbiased estimates of risk for subjects in the underlying population given their risk-factor profiles. As subjects with extreme high or low risk may be the most affected by knowledge of their risk estimates, checking the adequacy of risk models at the extremes of risk is very important for clinical applications. We propose a new approach to test model calibration targeted toward extremes of disease risk distribution where standard goodness-of-fit tests may lack power due to sparseness of data. We construct a test statistic based on model residuals summed over only those individuals who pass high and/or low risk thresholds and then maximize the test statistic over different risk thresholds. We derive an asymptotic distribution for the max-test statistic based on analytic derivation of the variance-covariance function of the underlying Gaussian process. The method is applied to a large case-control study of breast cancer to examine joint effects of common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) discovered through recent genome-wide association studies. The analysis clearly indicates a non-additive effect of the SNPs on the scale of absolute risk, but an excellent fit for the linear-logistic model even at the extremes of risks.

Electrocardiographic methods for diagnosis and risk stratification in the Brugada syndrome

The Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a malignant, genetically-determined, arrhythmic syndrome manifesting as syncope or sudden cardiac death (SCD) in individuals with structurally normal hearts. The diagnosis of the BrS is mainly based on the presence of a spontaneous or Na + channel blocker induced characteristic, electrocardiographic (ECG) pattern (type 1 or coved Brugada ECG pattern) typically seen in leads V1 and V2 recorded from the 4th to 2nd intercostal (i.c.) spaces. This pattern needs to be distinguished from similar ECG changes due to other causes (Brugada ECG phenocopies). This review focuses mainly on the ECG-based methods for diagnosis and arrhythmia risk assessment in the BrS. Presently, the main unresolved clinical problem is the identification of those patients at high risk of SCD who need implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), which is the only therapy with proven efficacy. Current guidelines recommend ICD implantation only in patients with spontaneous type 1 ECG pattern, and either history of aborted cardiac arrest or documented sustained VT (class I), or syncope of arrhythmic origin (class IIa) because they are at high risk of recurrent arrhythmic events (up to 10% or more annually for those with aborted cardiac arrest). The majority of BrS patients are asymptomatic when diagnosed and considered to have low risk (around 0.5% annually) and therefore not indicated for ICD. The majority of SCD victims in the BrS, however, had no symptoms prior to the fatal event and therefore were not protected with an ICD. While some ECG markers such as QRS fragmentation, infero-lateral early repolarisation, and abnormal late potentials on signal-averaged ECG are known to be linked to increased arrhythmic risk, they are not sufficiently sensitive or specific. Potential novel ECG-based strategies for risk stratification are discussed based on computerised methods for depolarisation and repolarisation analysis, a composite approach targeting several major components of ventricular arrhythmogenesis, and the collection of large digital ECG databases in genotyped BrS patients and their relatives.

Combined value of validated clinical and genomic risk stratification tools for predicting prostate cancer mortality in a high-risk prostatectomy cohort

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models that incorporate biomarkers and clinicopathologic variables may be used to improve decision making after radical prostatectomy (RP). We compared two previously validated post-RP classifiers-the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical (CAPRA-S) and the Decipher genomic classifier (GC)-to predict prostate cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in a contemporary cohort of RP patients.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the combined prognostic ability of CAPRA-S and GC to predict CSM.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A cohort of 1010 patients at high risk of recurrence after RP were treated at the Mayo Clinic between 2000 and 2006. High risk was defined by any of the following: preoperative prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/ml, pathologic Gleason score ≥8, or stage pT3b. A case-cohort random sample identified 225 patients (with cases defined as patients who experienced CSM), among whom CAPRA-S and GC could be determined for 185 patients.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The scores were evaluated individually and in combination using concordance index (c-index), decision curve analysis, reclassification, cumulative incidence, and Cox regression for the prediction of CSM.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Among 185 men, 28 experienced CSM. The c-indices for CAPRA-S and GC were 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.84) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87), respectively. GC showed higher net benefit on decision curve analysis, but a score combining CAPRA-S and GC did not improve the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve after optimism-adjusted bootstrapping. In 82 patients stratified to high risk based on CAPRA-S score ≥6, GC scores were likewise high risk for 33 patients, among whom 17 had CSM events. GC reclassified the remaining 49 men as low to intermediate risk; among these men, three CSM events were observed. In multivariable analysis, GC and CAPRA-S as continuous variables were independently prognostic of CSM, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.81 (p<0.001 per 0.1-unit change in score) and 1.36 (p=0.01 per 1-unit change in score). When categorized into risk groups, the multivariable HR for high CAPRA-S scores (≥6) was 2.36 (p=0.04) and was 11.26 (p<0.001) for high GC scores (≥0.6). For patients with both high GC and high CAPRA-S scores, the cumulative incidence of CSM was 45% at 10 yr. The study is limited by its retrospective design.

CONCLUSIONS

Both GC and CAPRA-S were significant independent predictors of CSM. GC was shown to reclassify many men stratified to high risk based on CAPRA-S ≥6 alone. Patients with both high GC and high CAPRA-S risk scores were at markedly elevated post-RP risk for lethal prostate cancer. If validated prospectively, these findings suggest that integration of a genomic-clinical classifier may enable better identification of those post-RP patients who should be considered for more aggressive secondary therapies and clinical trials.

PATIENT SUMMARY

The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical (CAPRA-S) and the Decipher genomic classifier (GC) were significant independent predictors of prostate cancer-specific mortality. These findings suggest that integration of a genomic-clinical classifier may enable better identification of those post-radical prostatectomy patients who should be considered for more aggressive secondary therapies and clinical trials.

Improving long-term prediction of first cardiovascular event: the contribution of family history of coronary heart disease and social status

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to assess whether family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) and education as proxy of social status improve long-term cardiovascular disease risk prediction in a low-incidence European population.

METHODS

The 20-year risk of first coronary or ischemic stroke events was estimated using sex-specific Cox models in 3956 participants of three population-based surveys in northern Italy, aged 35-69 years and free of cardiovascular disease at enrollment. The additional contribution of education and positive family history of CHD was defined as change in discrimination and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) over the model including 7 traditional risk factors.

RESULTS

Kaplan-Meier 20-year risk was 16.8% in men (254 events) and 6.4% in women (102 events). Low education (hazard ratio=1.35, 95%CI 0.98-1.85) and family history of CHD (1.55; 1.19-2.03) were associated with the endpoint in men, but not in women. In men, the addition of education and family history significantly improved discrimination by 1%; NRI was 6% (95%CI: 0.2%-15.2%), raising to 20% (0.5%-44%) in those at intermediate risk. NRI in women at intermediate risk was 7%.

CONCLUSION

In low-incidence populations, family history of CHD and education, easily assessed in clinical practice, should be included in long-term cardiovascular disease risk scores, at least in men.

Adolescents and young adults with a "rare" cancer: getting past semantics to optimal care for patients with germ cell tumors

Because the tumors of adolescence and young adulthood (AYA) are distinct from those that occur earlier and later in life, the most common tumors in this age group are termed “rare.” We offer a collaborative, cross-disciplinary, evidence-based approach, advocated and funded by civil society, to advance the field of germ cell tumor and potentially to apply to other rare AYA tumors.

Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: current status and challenges for the future

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) remains a daunting problem. It is a major public health issue for several reasons: from its prevalence (20% of total mortality in the industrialized world) to the devastating psycho-social impact on society and on the families of victims often still in their prime, and it represents a challenge for medicine, and especially for cardiology. This text summarizes the discussions and opinions of a group of investigators with a long-standing interest in this field. We addressed the occurrence of SCD in individuals apparently healthy, in patients with heart disease and mild or severe cardiac dysfunction, and in those with genetically based arrhythmic diseases. Recognizing the need for more accurate registries of the global and regional distribution of SCD in these different categories, we focused on the assessment of risk for SCD in these four groups, looking at the significance of alterations in cardiac function, of signs of electrical instability identified by ECG abnormalities or by autonomic tests, and of the progressive impact of genetic screening. Special attention was given to the identification of areas of research more or less likely to provide useful information, and thereby more or less suitable for the investment of time and of research funds.

Identifying the presence of clinically significant hepatic involvement in hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia using a simple clinical scoring index

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Though hepatic involvement is common in patients with hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT), symptomatic liver disease is rare but potentially fatal without liver transplantation. Factors associated with clinically significant liver disease in patients with HHT are unknown.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we included consecutive patients from 2001 to 2011 with definite HHT, who underwent systematic protocol screening including contrast-enhanced hepatic CT and/or abdominal ultrasound. Using a multivariable logistic regression model, we developed a simple clinical scoring index to identify the presence of symptomatic liver disease (cardiac failure, portal hypertension, or biliary disease) or 'at-risk' liver disease (asymptomatic patients, with hepatic bruit, abnormal liver biochemistry, or elevated cardiac index).

RESULTS

Of 316 patients with definite HHT, 171 patients (54.1%; age 53.4 ± 15.2 y, 101 females) had hepatic involvement on imaging. Twenty-nine patients had symptomatic liver disease (22 patients with high-output heart failure); 45 patients were 'at-risk' for liver disease. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we derived a score using age, gender, hemoglobin and alkaline phosphatase at presentation which could accurately distinguish patients with clinically significant liver involvement from patients with no or incidental liver lesions (c-statistic=0.80). A score <3 indicated low risk (<5%) and score >6 indicated high risk (>80%) of harboring clinically significant liver disease in HHT.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple scoring system can distinguish patients at low, moderate, and high risk of harboring clinically significant liver disease. With validation, this score may be used to identify patients for individualized screening and enrollment in clinical trials.

Single measurement of serum N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide: the best predictor of long-term mortality in patients with chronic systolic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Although high serum natriuretic peptide (NP) has long been associated with mortality prediction, it was usually tested under acute heart failure (HF) conditions and periods of analysis were short. This may explain the lack of consensus when its routine measurement for mortality prediction is contemplated. Here we evaluated, at the first clinic visit of chronic systolic HF patients, the usefulness of a single serum NP assessment for long-term mortality prediction.

METHODS

In 279 consecutive patients with chronic systolic HF, serum NT-proBNP was routinely measured once during the first clinic visit. We analyzed correlations between recorded mortality and the NT-proBNP finding, along with several known clinical echocardiographic, electrocardiographic and laboratory parameters recorded at that visit.

RESULTS

During average follow-up of 34±21months 59 (21%) patients died. Serum NT-proBNP was the strongest of the tested predictors of mortality [hazard ratio 3.76, 95% Cl (1.20-11.80), p=0.008]. Nearly seven years later, mortality was still higher in patients with higher initial serum NT-proBNP (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to many other traditional prognostic parameters tested at the same time, the single serum NT-proBNP finding was the strongest predictor of long-term mortality. These results may justify its routine use for this purpose.

Update on differentiated thyroid cancer staging

In this review, we demonstrate how initial estimates of the risk of disease-specific mortality and recurrent/persistent disease should be used to guide initial treatment recommendations and early management decisions and to set appropriate patient expectations with regard to likely outcomes after initial therapy of thyroid cancer. The use of ongoing risk stratification to modify these initial risk estimates is also discussed. Novel response to therapy definitions are proposed that can be used for ongoing risk stratification in thyroid cancer patients treated with lobectomy or total thyroidectomy without radioactive iodine remnant ablation.

Fetal MRI lung volumes are predictive of perinatal outcomes in fetuses with congenital lung masses

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate fetal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a modality for predicting perinatal outcomes and lung-related morbidity in fetuses with congenital lung masses (CLM).

METHODS

The records of all patients treated for CLM from 2002 to 2012 were reviewed retrospectively. Fetal MRI-derived lung mass volume ratio (LMVR), observed/expected normal fetal lung volume (O/E-NFLV), and lesion-to-lung volume ratio (LLV) were calculated. Multivariate regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses were applied to determine the predictive accuracy of prenatal imaging.

RESULTS

Of 128 fetuses with CLM, 93% (n=118) survived. MRI data were available for 113 fetuses. In early gestation (<26weeks), MRI measurements of LMVR and LLV correlated with risk of fetal hydrops, mortality, and/or need for fetal intervention. In later gestation (>26weeks), LMVR, LLV, and O/E-NFLV correlated with neonatal respiratory distress, intubation, NICU admission and need for neonatal surgery. On multivariate regression, LMVR was the strongest predictor for development of fetal hydrops (OR: 6.97, 1.58-30.84; p=0.01) and neonatal respiratory distress (OR: 12.38, 3.52-43.61; p≤0.001). An LMVR >2.0 predicted worse perinatal outcome with 83% sensitivity and 99% specificity (AUC=0.94; p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Fetal MRI volumetric measurements of lung masses and residual normal lung are predictive of perinatal outcomes in fetuses with CLM. These data may assist in perinatal risk stratification, counseling, and resource utilization.

Controversy over radioiodine ablation in thyroid cancer: who benefits?

Recent studies have proposed that overdiagnosis is probably the principal cause of the increased incidence of thyroid cancer. The controversy around radioiodine ablation is complicated by the ever increasing numbers of small, low-risk thyroid cancers being diagnosed. This article examines the history and evolving epidemiology of the disease and treatment.

Risk factors for retained surgical items: a meta-analysis and proposed risk stratification system

BACKGROUND

Retained surgical items (RSI) are designated as completely preventable "never events". Despite numerous case reports, clinical series, and expert opinions few studies provide quantitative insight into RSI risk factors and their relative contributions to the overall RSI risk profile. Existing case-control studies lack the ability to reliably detect clinically important differences within the long list of proposed risks. This meta-analysis examines the best available data for RSI risk factors, seeking to provide a clinically relevant risk stratification system.

METHODS

Nineteen candidate studies were considered for this meta-analysis. Three retrospective, case-control studies of RSI-related risk factors contained suitable group comparisons between patients with and without RSI, thus qualifying for further analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis 2.0 (BioStat, Inc, Englewood, NJ) software was used to analyze the following "common factor" variables compiled from the above studies: body-mass index, emergency procedure, estimated operative blood loss >500 mL, incorrect surgical count, lack of surgical count, >1 subprocedure, >1 surgical team, nursing staff shift change, operation "afterhours" (i.e., between 5 PM and 7 AM), operative time, trainee presence, and unexpected intraoperative factors. We further stratified resulting RSI risk factors into low, intermediate, and high risk.

RESULTS

Despite the fact that only between three and six risk factors were associated with increased RSI risk across the three studies, our analysis of pooled data demonstrates that seven risk factors are significantly associated with increased RSI risk. Variables found to elevate the RSI risk include intraoperative blood loss >500 mL (odds ratio [OR] 1.6); duration of operation (OR 1.7); >1 subprocedure (OR 2.1); lack of surgical counts (OR 2.5); >1 surgical team (OR 3.0); unexpected intraoperative factors (OR 3.4); and incorrect surgical count (OR 6.1). Changes in nursing staff, emergency surgery, body-mass index, and operation "afterhours" were not significantly associated with increased RSI risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the "common risk factors" reported by all three case-control studies, seven synergistically show elevated RSI risk across the pooled data. Based on these results, we propose a risk stratification scheme and issue a call to arms for large, prospective, and multicenter studies evaluating effects of specific changes at the institutional level (i.e., universal surgical counts, radiographic verification of the absence of RSI, and radiofrequency labeling of surgical instruments and sponges) on the risk of RSI. Overall, our findings provide a meaningful foundation for future patient safety initiatives and clinical studies of RSI occurrence and prevention.

Image-based left ventricular shape analysis for sudden cardiac death risk stratification

BACKGROUND

Low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), the main criterion used in the current clinical practice to stratify sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk, has low sensitivity and specificity.

OBJECTIVE

To uncover indices of left ventricular (LV) shape that differ between patients with a high risk of SCD and those with a low risk.

METHODS

By using clinical cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and computational anatomy tools, a novel computational framework to compare 3-dimensional LV endocardial surface curvedness, wall thickness, and relative wall thickness between patient groups was implemented. The framework was applied to cardiac magnetic resonance data of 61 patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy who were selected for prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treatment on the basis of reduced LVEF. The patients were classified by outcome: group 0 had no events; group 1, arrhythmic events; and group 2, heart failure events. Segmental differences in LV shape were assessed.

RESULTS

Global LV volumes and mass were similar among groups. Compared with patients with no events, patients in groups 1 and 2 had lower mean shape metrics in all coronary artery regions, with statistical significance in 9 comparisons, reflecting wall thinning and stretching/flattening.

CONCLUSION

In patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy and low LVEF, there exist quantifiable differences in 3-dimensional endocardial surface curvedness, LV wall thickness, and LV relative wall thickness between those with no clinical events and those with arrhythmic or heart failure outcomes, reflecting adverse LV remodeling. This retrospective study is a proof of concept to demonstrate that regional LV remodeling indices have the potential to improve the personalized risk assessment for SCD.

Invasive treatment of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome: cardiac catheterization/revascularization for all?

Patients admitted to hospital with symptoms and signs of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes have different risk profiles and are in need of an individualized approach that takes into consideration not only age and sex but also comorbidities such as diabetes, renal failure, hypertension, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, earlier revascularization, etc. According to evidence-based medicine and as documented in current guidelines, there is currently evidence for early catheterization and, if feasible, revascularization in high-risk patients, especially in men. Nevertheless, because of a lack of definitive evidence, there is uncertainty about treating women in the same way. Because women are usually older and have more comorbidities, they are frailer and revascularization should be indicated with greater caution. There is no evidence that catheterization as such is worse for women than for men; however, for both men and women with low risk, a less invasive approach, such as coronary computed tomography angiography, could be considered as a first diagnostic tool.

Syncope risk stratification in the ED

Syncope may be the final common presentation of a number of clinical conditions spanning benign (i.e. neurally-mediated syncope) to life-threatening diseases (i.e. cardiac syncope). Hospitalization rate after a syncopal episode is high. An effective risk stratification is crucial to identify patients at risk of poor prognosis in the short term period to avoid unnecessary hospital admissions. The decision to admit or discharge a syncope patient from the ED is often based on the physician's clinical judgment. In recent years, several prognostic tools (i.e. clinical prediction rules and risk scores) have been developed to provide emergency physicians with accurate guidelines for hospital admission. At present, there are no compelling evidence that prognostic tools perform better than physician's clinical judgment in assessing the short-term outcome of syncope. However, the risk factors characterizing clinical prediction rules and risk scores may be profitably used by emergency doctors in their decision making, specifically whenever a syncope patient has to be discharged from ED or admitted to hospital. Patients with syncope of undetermined etiology, who are characterized by an intermediate-high risk profile after the initial evaluation, should be monitored in the ED. Indeed, data suggest that the 48h following syncope are at the highest risk for major adverse events. A new tool for syncope management is represented by the Syncope Unit in the ED or in an outpatient setting. Syncope Unit may reduce hospitalization and length of hospital stay. However, further studies are needed to clarify whether syncope patients' prognosis can be also improved.

Adjuvant therapy for endometrial cancer

Endometrial cancer is a common gynecologic malignancy typically diagnosed at early stage and cured with surgery alone. Adjuvant therapy is tailored according to the risk of recurrence, estimated based on the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and other histological factors. The objective of this manuscript is to review the evidence guiding adjuvant therapy for early stage and locally advanced uterine cancer. For patients with early stage disease, minimizing toxicity, while preserving outstanding cure rates remains the major goal. For patients with locally advanced endometrial cancer optimal combined regimens are being defined. Risk stratification based on molecular traits is under development and may aid refine the current risk prediction model and permit personalized approaches for women with endometrial cancer.