Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.

FINDINGS

We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4-19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30-2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35-2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

INTERPRETATION

Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

METHODS

For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

FINDINGS

Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

INTERPRETATION

Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

Chronic nonbacterial osteomyelitis may be associated with renal disease and bisphosphonates are a good option for the majority of patients

AIM

The aim of this Italian study was to describe the clinical features, treatment options and outcomes of a cohort of patients with chronic nonbacterial osteomyelitis (CNO).

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study. Laboratory data, diagnostic imaging, histological features and clinical course are reported.

RESULTS

We enrolled 47 patients diagnosed with CNO. Bone pain was the leading symptom, and multifocal disease was present in 87% of the patients. The majority of the bone lesions were located in the appendicular skeleton (58%). Extraosseous manifestations were present in 34% of the patients, and renal involvement was detected in four patients. Inflammatory indices were increased in 80%, and bone x-rays were negative in 15% of the patients. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) were the first therapy for all patients, achieving clinical remission in 27%. A good response to NSAIDs was significantly associated with a better prognosis. Bisphosphonates were used in 26 patients, with remission in 73%. Only six patients (13%), all with spine involvement, developed sequelae.

CONCLUSION

We found a possible association between CNO and renal disease. Bisphosphonates were more likely to lead to clinical remission when NSAIDs and corticosteroids had failed. Vertebral localisation was the only risk factor for potential sequelae.

Describing Kawasaki shock syndrome: results from a retrospective study and literature review

Kawasaki shock syndrome (KSS) is a rare manifestation of Kawasaki disease (KD) characterized by systolic hypotension or clinical signs of poor perfusion. The objectives of the study are to describe the main clinical presentation, echocardiographic, and laboratory findings, as well as the treatment options and clinical outcomes of KSS patients when compared with KD patients. This is a retrospective study. All children referred to two pediatric rheumatology units from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2014, were enrolled. Patients were divided into patients with or without KSS. We compared the two groups according to the following variables: sex, age, type of KD (classic, with less frequent manifestations, or incomplete), clinical manifestations, cardiac involvement, laboratory findings, therapy administered, response to treatment, and outcome. Eighty-four patients with KD were enrolled. Of these, five (6 %) met the criteria for KSS. Patients with KSS had higher values of C-reactive protein (p = 0.005), lower hemoglobin levels (p = 0.003); more frequent hyponatremia (p = 0.004), hypoalbuminemia (p = 0.004), and coagulopathy (p = 0.003); and increase in cardiac troponins (p = 0.000). Among the KSS patients, three had a coronary artery involvement, but none developed a permanent aneurysm. Intravenous immunoglobulin resistance was more frequent in the KSS group, although not significantly so (3/5, 60 % vs. 23/79, 30 %, P = NS). None of the five cases was fatal, and all recovered without sequelae. KSS patients are more likely to have higher rates of cardiac involvement. However, most cardiovascular abnormalities resolved promptly with therapy.

Body mass index curves for Italian preterm infants are comparable with American curves for infants born before 34 weeks of gestational age

AIM

Body mass index (BMI)-for-age curves have been developed in the USA, but not compared with other populations. This study created gender-specific intrauterine BMI-for-age curves for Italian preterm infants and compared them with the USA version.

METHODS

Data on 92 262 newborn infants, born at 26-42 weeks of gestational age in the north-eastern Italian region of Friuli Venezia Giulia between 2005 and 2013, were analysed to create gender-specific BMI-for-age curves. Gender-specific and age-specific BMI Z scores for Italian infants were calculated using the parameters of the USA growth curves and the World Health Organization charts.

RESULTS

Gender-specific BMI-for-age at birth curves were developed for premature Italian infants from 26 gestational weeks. The comparison with the USA charts showed no significant difference in BMI percentiles in Italian infants born at ≤33 gestational weeks, but infants born at ≥34 gestational weeks had a significantly higher BMI than the USA population, by 0.2 standard deviations.

CONCLUSION

We developed the first European BMI-for-age at birth curves for premature infants. According to our findings, the Italian curves were comparable to the USA curves for the subgroup of infants born at ≤33 gestational weeks, but not ≥34 gestational weeks.

Incidence and Estimated Prevalence of Endometriosis and Adenomyosis in Northeast Italy: A Data Linkage Study

Despite being quite frequent and having serious implications in terms of symptomatology and fertility, data on incidence and prevalence of endometriosis and adenomyosis following gold standard definitions are dramatically lacking. The average time from onset of symptoms to diagnosis in industrialized countries still ranges from five to ten years. Using the regional centralized data linkage system, we calculated incidence and prevalence of endometriosis and adenomyosis in the female population of Friuli Venezia Giulia region, Italy, for the years 2011-2013. Cases were defined as new diagnoses from hospital discharge records, following procedures allowing direct visualization for endometriosis and hysterectomy for adenomyosis, with or without histological confirmation. Diagnoses were considered "new" after verifying women had not been diagnosed in the previous ten years. Incidence of endometriosis and adenomyosis in women aged 15-50 years is 0.14%. Prevalence, estimated from incidence, is 2.00%. Adenomyosis, representing 28% of all diagnoses, becomes increasingly prevalent after the age of 50 years. Our results shows how the study of both endometriosis and adenomyosis should not be limited to women of premenopausal age. Further efforts are needed to sensitize women and health professional, and to find new data linkage possibilities to identify undiagnosed cases.

Abnormal expression of leiomyoma cytoskeletal proteins involved in cell migration

Uterine leiomyomas are monoclonal tumors. Several factors are involved in the neoplastic transformation of the myometrium. In our study we focused on dysregulated cytoskeletal proteins in the leiomyoma as compared to the myometrium. Paired tissue samples of ten leiomyomas and adjacent myometria were obtained and analyzed by two‑dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE). Mass spectrometry was used for protein identification, and western blotting for 2-DE data validation. The values of ten cytoskeletal proteins were found to be significantly different: eight proteins were upregulated in the leiomyoma and two proteins were downregulated. Three of the upregulated proteins (myosin regulatory light polypeptide 9, four and a half LIM domains protein 1 and LIM and SH3 domain protein 1) are involved in cell migration, while downregulated protein transgelin is involved in replicative senescence. Myosin regulatory light polypeptide 9 (MYL9) was further validated by western blotting because it is considered to be a cell migration marker in several cancers and could play a key role in leiomyoma development. Our data demonstrate significant alterations in the expression of cytoskeletal proteins involved in leiomyoma growth. A better understanding of the involvement of cytoskeletal proteins in leiomyoma pathogenesis may contribute to the identification of new therapeutic targets and the development of new pharmacological approaches.

Early diagnosis and Early Start Denver Model intervention in autism spectrum disorders delivered in an Italian Public Health System service

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis combined with an early intervention program, such as the Early Start Denver Model (ESDM), can positively influence the early natural history of autism spectrum disorders. This study evaluated the effectiveness of an early ESDM-inspired intervention, in a small group of toddlers, delivered at low intensity by the Italian Public Health System.

METHODS

Twenty-one toddlers at risk for autism spectrum disorders, aged 20-36 months, received 3 hours/wk of one-to-one ESDM-inspired intervention by trained therapists, combined with parents' and teachers' active engagement in ecological implementation of treatment. The mean duration of treatment was 15 months. Cognitive and communication skills, as well as severity of autism symptoms, were assessed by using standardized measures at pre-intervention (Time 0 [T0]; mean age =27 months) and post-intervention (Time 1 [T1]; mean age =42 months).

RESULTS

Children made statistically significant improvements in the language and cognitive domains, as demonstrated by a series of nonparametric Wilcoxon tests for paired data. Regarding severity of autism symptoms, younger age at diagnosis was positively associated with greater improvement at post-assessment.

CONCLUSION

Our results are consistent with the literature that underlines the importance of early diagnosis and early intervention, since prompt diagnosis can reduce the severity of autism symptoms and improve cognitive and language skills in younger children. Particularly in toddlers, it seems that an intervention model based on the ESDM principles, involving the active engagement of parents and nursery school teachers, may be effective even when the individual treatment is delivered at low intensity. Furthermore, our study supports the adaptation and the positive impact of the ESDM entirely sustained by the Italian Public Health System.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.

METHODS

We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.

FINDINGS

Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries.

INTERPRETATION

Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

To Extinguish the Fire from Outside the Cell or to Shutdown the Gas Valve Inside? Novel Trends in Anti-Inflammatory Therapies

Cytokines are the most important soluble mediators of inflammation. Rare pediatric diseases provided exemplar conditions to study the anti-inflammatory efficacy of new generation therapies (biologics/biopharmaceuticals) selectively targeting single cytokines. Monoclonal antibodies and recombinant proteins have revolutionized anti-inflammatory therapies in the last two decades, allowing the specific targeting of single cytokines. They are very effective in extinguishing inflammation from outside the cell, even with the risk of an excessive and prolonged immunosuppression. Small molecules can enter the cell and shutdown the valve of inflammation by directly targeting signal proteins involved in cytokine release or in response to cytokines. They are orally-administrable drugs whose dosage can be easily adjusted to obtain the desired anti-inflammatory effect. This could make these drugs more suitable for a wide range of diseases as stroke, gout, or neurological impairment, where inflammatory activation plays a pivotal role as trigger. Autoinflammatory diseases, which have previously put anti-cytokine proteins in the limelight, can again provide a valuable model to measure the real potential of small inhibitors as anti-inflammatory agents.

An IBCLC in the Maternity Ward of a Mother and Child Hospital: A Pre- and Post-Intervention Study

Published evidence on the impact of the integration of International Board Certified Lactation Consultants (IBCLCs) for breastfeeding promotion is growing, but still relatively limited. Our study aims at evaluating the effects of adding an IBCLC for breastfeeding support in a mother and child hospital environment. We conducted a prospective study in the maternity ward of our maternal and child health Institute, recruiting 402 mothers of healthy term newborns soon after birth. The 18-month intervention of the IBCLC (Phase II) was preceded (Phase I) by data collection on breastfeeding rates and factors related to breastfeeding, both at hospital discharge and two weeks later. Data collection was replicated just before the end of the intervention (Phase III). In Phase III, a significantly higher percentage of mothers: (a) received help to breastfeed, and also received correct information on breastfeeding and community support, (b) started breastfeeding within two hours from delivery, (c) reported a good experience with the hospital staff. Moreover, the frequency of sore and/or cracked nipples was significantly lower in Phase III. However, no difference was found in exclusive breastfeeding rates at hospital discharge or at two weeks after birth.

The Global Burden of Cancer 2013

IMPORTANCE

Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs.

FINDINGS

In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.

Potential role of circulating microRNAs as early markers of preeclampsia

OBJECTIVE

To identify microRNAs (miRNAs) differentially expressed at early stages of gestation (12-14 weeks) in the serum of pregnant women, who later developed severe preeclampsia (sPE) in the third trimester of pregnancy (n = 24) compared to women with normal pregnancy (n = 24).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Sera from 12-14-week-gestation whole blood were subjected to microarray analysis with TaqMan Low Density Array chips (human microRNA panel V3.0), and to quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

By using the TaqMan Low Density Array chip technology, 19 mature miRNAs appeared differentially expressed in the group of women who later developed sPE as compared to normal women. The expression of four miRNAs (miR-1233, miR-520, miR-210, miR-144) was validated by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis. MiR-1233 was the most overexpressed in the serum of women who later developed sPE.

CONCLUSION

Circulating miRNAs deserve further investigation in order to explore their potential role in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia. In particular, miR-1233 might represent a potential marker of early sPE.

Pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease exhibit increased serum levels of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines, but decreased circulating levels of macrophage inhibitory protein-1β, interleukin-2 and interleukin-17

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic and progressive inflammatory condition of the gastrointestinal tract. Although the causative events that lead to the onset of IBD are yet to be fully elucidated, deregulation of immune and inflammatory mechanisms are hypothesized to significantly contribute to this disorder. Since the onset of IBD is often during infancy, in the present study, the serum values of a large panel of cytokines and chemokines in pediatric patients (<18 years; n=26) were compared with age-matched controls (n=37). While elevations in the serum level of several proinflammatory and immune regulating cytokines were confirmed, such as interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-5, IL-7, interferon (IFN)-γ-inducible protein-10, IL-16, cutaneous T-cell-attracting chemokine, leukemia inhibitory factor, monokine induced by γ-IFN, IFN-α2 and IFN-γ, notably decreased levels of IL-2, IL-17 and macrophage inhibitory protein-1β were also observed. Therefore, while a number of proinflammatory cytokines exhibit increased levels in IBD patients, pediatric IBD patients may also exhibit certain aspects of a reduced immunological response.

Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis analysis of the leiomyoma interstitial fluid reveals altered protein expression with a possible involvement in pathogenesis

Uterine leiomyoma is the most common smooth benign neoplasm. In the present study, we analyzed the global interstitial fluid (IF) profile of leiomyoma vs. normal myometrium to identify protein dysregulation involved in leiomyoma pathogenesis. Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry were used to generate and compare the global interstitial fluid profiles of the leiomyoma and of the normal tissue. Two proteins were validated by immunohistochemistry. By comparing the interstitial fluid profile of the leiomyoma with that of the normal myometrium, the levels of seven proteins were found to be significantly different: four structural organization proteins (desmin, prelamin-A/C, transgelin and α-actinin-1), an inflammatory response (α1-antitrypsin), a response to oxidative stress (peroxiredoxin-2), and a folding protein (heat shock 70 kDa protein 1A/1B). Desmin, α1-antitrypsin and peroxiredoxin-2 were upregulated in the leiomyoma, whereas heat shock 70 kDa protein 1A/1B, α-actinin-1, prelamin-A/C and transgelin were downregulated. Desmin and α1-antitrypsin were further validated by immunohistochemistry. By identifying proteins with altered expression levels compared to the myometrium from several pathways of the leiomyoma pathogenesis, we found the leiomyoma interstitial fluid to have a characteristic proteomic profile. A better appreciation of the pathophysiology of the disease can be useful in the development of conservative treatments that serve as viable alternatives to hysterectomy.

Risk-adjusted operative delivery rates and maternal-neonatal outcomes as measures of quality assessment in obstetric care: a multicenter prospective study

BACKGROUND

Although the evaluation of caesarean delivery rates has been suggested as one of the most important indicators of quality in obstetrics, it has been criticized because of its controversial ability to capture maternal and neonatal outcomes. In an "ideal" process of labor and delivery auditing, both caesarean (CD) and assisted vaginal delivery (AVD) rates should be considered because both of them may be associated with an increased risk of complications. The aim of our study was to evaluate maternal and neonatal outcomes according to the outlier status for case-mix adjusted CD and AVD rates in the same obstetric population.

METHODS

Standardized data on 15,189 deliveries from 11 centers were prospectively collected. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate the risk-adjusted probability of a woman in each center having an AVD or a CD. Centers were classified as "above", "below", or "within" the expected rates by considering the observed-to-expected rates and the 95% confidence interval around the ratio. Adjusted maternal and neonatal outcomes were compared among the three groupings.

RESULTS

Centers classified as "above" or "below" the expected CD rates had, in both cases, higher adjusted incidence of composite maternal (2.97%, 4.69%, 3.90% for "within", "above" and "below", respectively; p = 0.000) and neonatal complications (3.85%, 9.66%, 6.29% for "within", "above" and "below", respectively; p = 0.000) than centers "within" CD expected rates. Centers with AVD rates above and below the expected showed poorer and better composite maternal (3.96%, 4.61%, 2.97% for "within", "above" and "below", respectively; p = 0.000) and neonatal (6.52%, 9.77%, 3.52% for "within", "above" and "below", respectively; p = 0.000) outcomes respectively than centers with "within" AVD rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Both risk-adjusted CD and AVD delivery rates should be considered to assess the level of obstetric care. In this context, both higher and lower-than-expected rates of CD and "above" AVD rates are significantly associated with increased risk of complications, whereas the "below" status for AVD showed a "protective" effect on maternal and neonatal outcomes.

Levels of circulating TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand in celiac disease

It has previously been demonstrated that the circulating levels of TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) are significantly lower in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) than in normal age- and gender-matched controls. Since celiac disease (CD) is often associated with T1D, a retrospective study was performed to analyze the sera of a cohort of pediatric subjects: i) patients with CD at onset (n=100); ii) patients with potential CD (n=45); iii) patients with CD associated with other auto-immune diseases (n=17); and iv) patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (n=15). Among the patients with CD, 49 were also analyzed after six months on a gluten-free diet, while data were also available for 13 patients after one year on a gluten-free diet. No significant differences were found in the circulating levels of TRAIL between the patients with CD and the patients with either eosinophilic esophagitis or potential CD. Patients with CD associated with other auto-immune diseases showed significantly lower levels of TRAIL when compared with patients with CD alone. The gluten-free diet did not significantly modify the levels of circulating TRAIL at 6 or 12 months. Thus, although T1D and CD share common immunological features, the circulating levels of TRAIL show a significant difference between the two pathologies, and do not appear to be modulated in CD.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS

To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.

METHODS

We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.

FINDINGS

We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.

INTERPRETATION

Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.