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Tian D, Cui XM, Ye RZ, Li YY, Wang N, Gao WY, Wang BH, Lin ZT, Zhu WJ, Wang QS, Liu YT, Wei H, Wang YF, Sun Y, Shi XY, Jia N, Jiang JF, Cao WC, Liu ZH. Distribution and diversity of ticks determined by environmental factors in Ningxia, China. One Health 2024; 19:100897. [PMID: 39345728 PMCID: PMC11439557 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2024.100897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2024] [Revised: 08/22/2024] [Accepted: 09/16/2024] [Indexed: 10/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Ticks are important vectors of zoonotic pathogens, and represent an increasing threat for human and animal health. Considering the complex natural environments of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, we expect the diverse tick species in this region. Here, we conduct a field survey on parasitic and host-seeking ticks. A total of 10,419 ticks were collected, which belonged to nine species of four genera. There were significant differences in terms of vegetation index, altitude, and seven climatic factors among the four tick genera -Hyalomma, Dermacentor, Haemaphysalis, and Ixodes, except between Haemaphysalis and Ixodes, where no significant differences were observed in these factors. The ecological niche modelling revealed that the suitable habitats for Hyalomma asiaticum was in the northwest Ningxia, with annual ground surface temperature as the most important factor. The suitable area for Dermacentor nuttalli was in the southwest and eastern regions of Ningxia with elevation as the highest contribution. D. silvarum was best suited to the southern Ningxia also with elevation as the most important factor. The four tick species including Haemaphysalis longicornis, Hae. qinghaiensis, Hae. japonica, and Ixodes persulcatus were best suited to the southernmost Ningxia with annual precipitation as the main factors for Hae. longicornis and elevation for the other three ticks. The results of predicted potential distribution of different tick species provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of ticks and tick-borne diseases in the region. Furthermore, the subsequent impacts of the Greening Program to regain forests and grasslands from former agricultural lands in Ningxia on tick population dynamics deserve further investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Di Tian
- School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia, PR China
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Xiao-Ming Cui
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
- Research Unit of Discovery and Tracing of Natural Focus Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, PR China
| | - Run-Ze Ye
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China
| | - Yu-Yu Li
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China
| | - Ning Wang
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China
| | - Wan-Ying Gao
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China
| | - Bai-Hui Wang
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China
| | - Zhe-Tao Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Wen-Jie Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Qiu-Shi Wang
- School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia, PR China
| | - Ya-Ting Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Hua Wei
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China
| | - Yi-Fei Wang
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China
| | - Yi Sun
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Xiao-Yu Shi
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Na Jia
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Jia-Fu Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
| | - Wu-Chun Cao
- School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia, PR China
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
- Research Unit of Discovery and Tracing of Natural Focus Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, PR China
- Institute of EcoHealth, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, PR China
| | - Zhi-Hong Liu
- School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia, PR China
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, PR China
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Huang H, Zhou Z, Peng D, Chu J. Potential impacts of climate change on cephalopods in a highly productive region (Northwest Pacific): Habitat suitability and management. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 953:175794. [PMID: 39233075 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2024] [Revised: 08/21/2024] [Accepted: 08/23/2024] [Indexed: 09/06/2024]
Abstract
Cephalopods occupy a mid-trophic level in marine ecosystems and are vital both ecologically and as fishery resources. However, under the pressure of climate change and fishing, the sustainability of cephalopod resources requires reasonable management. This study aims to study climate change and fishing impacts on the common economic cephalopod species habitats using species distribution models. We take the northwest Pacific Ocean region as an example, which stands out as a significant region for cephalopod production around the world. Results found that the habitats of cephalopods are moving to higher latitudes or deeper waters (Bohai Sea, mid-bottom Yellow Sea, and the Okinawa Trough waters) under climate change. Additionally, these regions are currently under lower fishing pressure, which suggests that species migration might mitigate the effects of warming and fishing. This study provides the large-scale assessment of the distribution range of cephalopods affected by climate change coping with fishing pressure in the northwest Pacific Ocean. By identifying climate refuges and key fishing grounds, we underscore the importance of this information for managing cephalopod resources in the context of climate adaptation and sustainable fishing practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huimin Huang
- College of Marine Life Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
| | - Zhimin Zhou
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
| | - Daomin Peng
- College of Marine Life Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, Canada.
| | - Jiansong Chu
- College of Marine Life Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China.
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Picanço MM, Guedes RNC, da Silva RS, Galvão C, Souza PGC, Barreto AB, Sant'Ana LCDS, Lopes PHQ, Picanço MC. Unveiling the overlooked: Current and future distribution dynamics of kissing bugs and palm species linked to oral Chagas disease transmission. Acta Trop 2024; 258:107367. [PMID: 39173726 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2024] [Revised: 08/03/2024] [Accepted: 08/20/2024] [Indexed: 08/24/2024]
Abstract
Chagas disease, a neglected global health concern primarily transmitted through the bite and feces of kissing bugs, has garnered increasing attention due to recent outbreaks in northern Brazil, highlighting the role of oral transmission facilitated by the kissing bugs species Rhodnius robustus and Rhodnius pictipes. These vectors are associated with palm trees with large crowns, such as the maripa palm (Attalea maripa) and moriche palm (Mauritia flexuosa). In this study, we employ maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological niche models to analyze the spatial distribution of these vectors and palm species, predicting current and future climate suitability. Our models indicate broader potential habitats than documented occurrences, with high suitability in northern South America, southern Central America, central Africa, and southeast Asia. Projections suggest increased climate suitability by 2040, followed by a reduction by 2080. This study identifies present and future areas suitable for kissing bugs and palm tree species due to climate change, aiding in the design of prevention and management strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mayara M Picanço
- Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, 36570-900, Brazil.
| | - Raul Narciso C Guedes
- Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, 36570-900, Brazil.
| | - Ricardo S da Silva
- Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Diamantina, Minas Gerais, 39100-000, Brazil.
| | - Cleber Galvão
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21.040-360, Brazil.
| | - Philipe Guilherme C Souza
- Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Triângulo Mineiro, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, 38411-104, Brazil.
| | - Alice B Barreto
- Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, 36570-900, Brazil.
| | | | - Pedro Henrique Q Lopes
- Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, 36570-900, Brazil.
| | - Marcelo C Picanço
- Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, 36570-900, Brazil.
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Luo W, Sun C, Yang S, Chen W, Sun Y, Li Z, Liu J, Tao W, Tao J. Contrasting range changes and drivers of four forest foundation species under future climate change in China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 942:173784. [PMID: 38851330 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173784] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2024] [Revised: 06/03/2024] [Accepted: 06/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/10/2024]
Abstract
Forest foundation species, vital for shaping community structure and dynamics through non-trophic level interactions, are key to forest succession and sustainability. Despite their ecological importance, the habitat ranges of these species in China and their responses to future climate change remain unclear. Our study employed the optimal MaxEnt model to assess the range shifts and their essential drivers of four typical forest foundation species from three climatic zones in China under climate scenarios, including Acer tegmentosum, Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (temperate zone), Quercus glandulifera (subtropical zone), and Ficus hispida (tropical zone). The optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC values > 0.90) for the four foundation species, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, we observed that A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum are predominantly inhabited temperate forest areas in northeastern China, Q. glandulifera is primarily concentrated in subtropical forests in southeastern China, and F. hispida is mainly distributed across the tropical forests in southern China. Climate factors, particularly temperature, emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the potential range of forest foundation species. Moreover, precipitation strongly influenced the potential range of A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum, while elevation exhibited a greater impact on the range of Q. glandulifera and F. hispida. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas for A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum tend to expand southward, F. hispida tends to expand northward, while Q. glandulifera exhibited a tendency to contract towards the center. This study advances our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest foundation species in China under climate change, providing critical insights for conservation efforts and sustainable forest management practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weixue Luo
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China; Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
| | - Chengxiang Sun
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Shuo Yang
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Wenke Chen
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yuhong Sun
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Zongfeng Li
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China; Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
| | - Jinchun Liu
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China; Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
| | - Wenjing Tao
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China; Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
| | - Jianping Tao
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China; Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
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Nanini F, Souza PGC, Soliman EP, Zauza EAV, Domingues MM, Santos FA, Wilcken CF, da Silva RS, Corrêa AS. Genetic diversity, population structure and ecological niche modeling of Thyrinteina arnobia (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), a native Eucalyptus pest in Brazil. Sci Rep 2024; 14:20963. [PMID: 39251761 PMCID: PMC11384784 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-71816-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2024] [Accepted: 08/30/2024] [Indexed: 09/11/2024] Open
Abstract
Thyrinteina arnobia (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is a native American species. Despite its historical importance as an insect pest in Eucalyptus plantations, more information is needed regarding the population diversity, demography, and climatic variables associated with its distribution in different regions of Brazil. We used a phylogeographic approach to infer the genetic diversity, genetic structure, and demographic parameters of T. arnobia. We also conducted an ecological niche modeling (ENM) to predict suitable areas for T. arnobia occurrence in Brazil and other countries worldwide. Although T. arnobia populations have low genetic diversity in Brazil, we identified mitochondrial haplogroups predominating in different Brazilian regions and high ФST and ФCT values in AMOVA, suggesting a low frequency of insect movement among these regions. These results indicate that outbreaks of T. arnobia in Eucalyptus areas in different regions of Brazil are associated with local or regional populations, with no significant contribution from long-distance dispersal from different regions or biomes, suggesting that pest management strategies would be implemented on a regional scale. In Brazil, the demographic and spatial expansion signals of T. arnobia seem to be associated with the history of geographical expansion of Eucalyptus plantations, a new sustainable host for this species. ENM indicated that isothermality and annual rainfall are critical climatic factors for the occurrence of T. arnobia in tropical and subtropical areas in the Americas. ENM also suggested that T. arnobia is a potential pest in Eucalyptus areas in all Brazilian territory and in regions from Africa, Asia, and Oceania.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frederico Nanini
- Departamento de Entomologia e Acarologia, ESALQ - Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Philipe G C Souza
- Departamento de Agronomia, Instituto Federal de Ciência e Tecnologia do Triângulo Mineiro (IFTM Campus Uberlândia), Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Fábio A Santos
- Departamento de Proteção Vegetal, UNESP/FCA - Campus de Botucatu, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brasil
| | - Carlos F Wilcken
- Departamento de Proteção Vegetal, UNESP/FCA - Campus de Botucatu, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brasil
| | - Ricardo S da Silva
- Departamento de Agronomia, Universidade Federal do Vale do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Diamantina, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Alberto S Corrêa
- Departamento de Entomologia e Acarologia, ESALQ - Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil.
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Liu Z, Peng Y, Xu D, Zhuo Z. Meta-Analysis and MaxEnt Model Prediction of the Distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley in China under the Context of Climate Change. INSECTS 2024; 15:675. [PMID: 39336643 PMCID: PMC11432275 DOI: 10.3390/insects15090675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2024] [Revised: 09/01/2024] [Accepted: 09/03/2024] [Indexed: 09/30/2024]
Abstract
Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley is a pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural crops, especially cotton, and is now widely distributed across many regions worldwide. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis on the collected experimental data and found that within the suitable temperature range, the survival rate of P. solenopsis increases with rising temperatures, indicating that climate plays a decisive role in its distribution. Using the MaxEnt model this study predicted that under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the distribution of P. solenopsis will expand and move towards higher latitudes. Climate change is the primary factor influencing changes in pest distribution. We conducted a meta-analysis of P. solenopsis, including seven independent studies covering 221 observation results, and examined the impact of temperature ranging from 18 °C to 39 °C on the developmental cycle of P. solenopsis. As the temperature rises, the development cycle of P. solenopsis gradually decreases. Additionally, by combining the MaxEnt model, we predicted the current and potential future distribution range of P. solenopsis. The results show that under future climate warming, the distribution area of P. solenopsis in China will expand. This research provides a theoretical basis for early monitoring and control of this pest's occurrence and spread. Therefore, the predictive results of this study will provide important information for managers in monitoring P. solenopsis and help them formulate relevant control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiqian Liu
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Yaqin Peng
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Danping Xu
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Zhihang Zhuo
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
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Christiani P, Rana P, Räsänen A, Pitkänen TP, Tolvanen A. Detecting Spatial Patterns of Peatland Greenhouse Gas Sinks and Sources with Geospatial Environmental and Remote Sensing Data. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 74:461-478. [PMID: 38563987 PMCID: PMC11306394 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-024-01965-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2024] [Accepted: 03/16/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Peatlands play a key role in the circulation of the main greenhouse gases (GHG) - methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Therefore, detecting the spatial pattern of GHG sinks and sources in peatlands is pivotal for guiding effective climate change mitigation in the land use sector. While geospatial environmental data, which provide detailed spatial information on ecosystems and land use, offer valuable insights into GHG sinks and sources, the potential of directly using remote sensing data from satellites remains largely unexplored. We predicted the spatial distribution of three major GHGs (CH4, CO2, and N2O) sinks and sources across Finland. Utilizing 143 field measurements, we compared the predictive capacity of three different data sets with MaxEnt machine-learning modeling: (1) geospatial environmental data including climate, topography and habitat variables, (2) remote sensing data (Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2), and (3) a combination of both. The combined dataset yielded the highest accuracy with an average test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.845 and AUC stability of 0.928. A slightly lower accuracy was achieved using only geospatial environmental data (test AUC 0.810, stability AUC 0.924). In contrast, using only remote sensing data resulted in reduced predictive accuracy (test AUC 0.763, stability AUC 0.927). Our results suggest that (1) reliable estimates of GHG sinks and sources cannot be produced with remote sensing data only and (2) integrating multiple data sources is recommended to achieve accurate and realistic predictions of GHG spatial patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Parvez Rana
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Oulu, Finland
| | - Aleksi Räsänen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Oulu, Finland
| | - Timo P Pitkänen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Anne Tolvanen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Oulu, Finland
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He F, Liang L, Wang H, Li A, La M, Wang Y, Zhang X, Zou D. Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Heliyon 2024; 10:e35860. [PMID: 39224369 PMCID: PMC11367033 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35860] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2024] [Revised: 07/23/2024] [Accepted: 08/05/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Amphibian populations are declining globally due to climate change. However, the impacts on the geographic distribution of amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), a global biodiversity hotspot with 112 species of amphibians that is sensitive to global climate change, remains unclear. In this study, MaxEnt and barycentre shift analyses were performed to reveal the impact of climate change on the potential future habitats of amphibians on the QTP using the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate pattern with three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). In contrast to the widespread decline in the amphibian population, the future scenarios projected an increase in most amphibian habitats on the QTP, accompanied by migration to higher elevations or latitudes under three climatic projections (SSP 1-2.6, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5). Average annual precipitation was the most crucial environmental variable impacting the future distribution of amphibians. The findings indicate that amphibians would flourish under climate change on the QTP, which is of great significance for the protection of amphibians and biodiversity on the QTP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fangfang He
- School of Life Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810000, PR China
| | - Lu Liang
- School of Life Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810000, PR China
| | - Huichun Wang
- School of Life Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810000, PR China
| | - Aijing Li
- Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, 810008, PR China
| | - Mencuo La
- School of Life Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810000, PR China
| | - Yao Wang
- School of Life Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810000, PR China
| | - Xiaoting Zhang
- School of Life Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810000, PR China
| | - Denglang Zou
- School of Life Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810000, PR China
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Yang M, Huo Y, Wang L, Wang J, Zuo S, Pang C, Wang Z, Zhang H, Xu K, Ma K. Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of the Plum Fruit Moth Grapholita funebrana Treitscheke Using Ensemble Models. INSECTS 2024; 15:663. [PMID: 39336631 PMCID: PMC11432621 DOI: 10.3390/insects15090663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2024] [Revised: 08/18/2024] [Accepted: 08/22/2024] [Indexed: 09/30/2024]
Abstract
The plum fruit moth, Grapholita funebrana Treitschke, is one of the most significant borer pests, often causing huge economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest is still poorly understood. For this study, we simulated an ensemble species distribution model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of G. funebrana at a global scale. The results show that the suitable habitats for this moth, under current environmental conditions, are mainly distributed in Europe; East Asia, including China and Japan; Central Asia; and some parts of America. In future projections, the suitable habitats are predicted to generally expand northward, while the suitable area will remain unchanged overall. However, the area of highly suitable habitat will decrease to only 17.49% of that found under current conditions. None of the nine factors used were revealed to be predominant predictors in terms of contributing to the model, suggesting that the integrated effects of these variables shape G. funebrana's distribution. In this study, the distribution range that has been predicted, especially for the regions with a highly suitable habitat, poses a high risk of G. funebrana outbreaks, highlighting the urgency of pest management. Moreover, in the United States of America (USA) and Japan (for which G. funebrana distributions were not previously recorded), especially in areas highly suitable for this moth, monitoring and quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the colonization and further dispersal of this pest, as seen with its close relative G. molesta, which has become a cosmopolitan pest species, migrating from its native region (East Asia) to other continents, including the Americas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingsheng Yang
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
- Field Observation and Research Station of Green Agriculture in Dancheng County, Zhoukou 466001, China;
| | - Yiqi Huo
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
| | - Lei Wang
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
| | - Jialu Wang
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
| | - Shichao Zuo
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
| | - Chaoyun Pang
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
| | - Zhengbing Wang
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
- Field Observation and Research Station of Green Agriculture in Dancheng County, Zhoukou 466001, China;
| | - Hongfei Zhang
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
- Field Observation and Research Station of Green Agriculture in Dancheng County, Zhoukou 466001, China;
| | - Kedong Xu
- Field Observation and Research Station of Green Agriculture in Dancheng County, Zhoukou 466001, China;
- Key Laboratory of Plant Genetics and Molecular Breeding, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China
- Key Laboratory of Crop Molecular Breeding and Bioreactor, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China
| | - Keshi Ma
- College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, China; (Y.H.); (L.W.); (J.W.); (S.Z.); (C.P.); (Z.W.); (H.Z.)
- Field Observation and Research Station of Green Agriculture in Dancheng County, Zhoukou 466001, China;
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Sarikaya AG, Uzun A, Turan FD. Effect of climate change on current and future potential distribution of Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) in Türkiye. Sci Rep 2024; 14:17408. [PMID: 39075185 PMCID: PMC11286737 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-68683-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/26/2024] [Indexed: 07/31/2024] Open
Abstract
The demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in Türkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in Türkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Almira Uzun
- Graduate School, Bursa Technical University, Bursa, Türkiye
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11
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Ran W, Chen J, Zhao Y, Zhang N, Luo G, Zhao Z, Song Y. Global climate change-driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e70003. [PMID: 39026963 PMCID: PMC11257772 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.70003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/28/2024] [Indexed: 07/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiwei Ran
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Jiajia Chen
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Yuanqi Zhao
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Ni Zhang
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Guimei Luo
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Zhibing Zhao
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
- School of Food Science and EngineeringGuiyang UniversityGuiyangChina
| | - Yuehua Song
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
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12
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Wan Y, Li L, Zhou J, Ma Y, Zhang Y, Liu Y, Li J, Liu W. Predicting the potential distribution change of the endangered Francois' langur ( Trachypithecus francoisi) across its entire range in China under climate change. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11684. [PMID: 38988350 PMCID: PMC11236436 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Revised: 05/31/2024] [Accepted: 06/20/2024] [Indexed: 07/12/2024] Open
Abstract
The Francois' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) is a rare primate species indicated as endangered and distributed in karst areas in northern Vietnam and southwestern China. However, research limited to specific nature reserves or sites has hampered holistic conservation management. A comprehensive map of the potential distribution for the Francois' langur is essential to advance conservation efforts and ensure coordinated management across regions. Here, we used 82 occurrence records of Francois' langur surveyed in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Chongqing from 2017 to 2020, along with 12 environmental variables, to build the potential habitat model under current and future climate (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090s) using maximum entropy models (MaxEnt). Our results indicated that (1) precipitation- and temperature-associated bioclimatic variables contributed the most to the distribution of Francois' langur. Vegetation, water sources, and anthropogenic variables also affected its distribution; (2) a total of 144,207.44 km2 of potential suitable habitat across the entire range in China was estimated by the current model. Moderate- and high-suitability habitats accounted for only 23.76% (34,265.96 km2) of the predicted suitable habitat and were mainly distributed in southwest Guangxi, east of Chongqing, and the border between Guizhou and Chongqing; (3) the suitable habitats of Francois' langur will contract considerably under future climate change, and the habitat centroid will move in the southeast direction with a shifting distance of approximately 2.84 km/year from current to 2100. The habitat prediction of Francois' langur and the main drivers proposed in this study could provide essential insights for the future conservation of this endangered species. The existing distribution areas should be monitored and protected, but conservation beyond existing habitats should also be a focus of effort, especially in future expansion areas. This would ensure effective and timely protection under climate change and anthropogenic pressures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaqiong Wan
- The State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing China
| | - Luanxin Li
- The State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing China
| | - Jiang Zhou
- School of Karst Science Guizhou Normal University Guiyang China
| | - Yue Ma
- The State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing China
| | - Yanjing Zhang
- The State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing China
| | - Yan Liu
- The State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing China
| | - Jiaqi Li
- The State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing China
| | - Wei Liu
- The State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences Ministry of Ecology and Environment Nanjing China
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Fan W, Luo Y. Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitats and Ecological Niche for Trollius Wildflowers in Ili River Valley, Tacheng, Altay Prefecture. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:1752. [PMID: 38999591 PMCID: PMC11243624 DOI: 10.3390/plants13131752] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2024] [Revised: 06/15/2024] [Accepted: 06/18/2024] [Indexed: 07/14/2024]
Abstract
Xinjiang in China is distinguished by its distinctive regional landscape and high ecological sensitivity. Trollius wildflowers represent a unique and iconic element of the mountain flower landscape in Xinjiang. However, their populations are predominantly distributed in mountainous areas, making them susceptible to climate change. Despite this, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitats and ecological niche differentiation for Trollius wildflowers have rarely been quantified. Consequently, simulations were conducted using the R-optimized MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitat distribution of Trollius wildflowers. This was based on the occurrence data and environmental variables for the four species of Trollius (T. altaicus, T. asiaticus, T. dschungaricus, and T. lilacinus) that exist in the study area. The simulation was conducted over a period of time, beginning with the past glacial period and extending to the present, and then to the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under multiple scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The simulation of suitable habitats enabled the measurement of the ecological niche breadth and differentiation. The results demonstrate that the model predictions are precisely accurate, with AUC values exceeding 0.9. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), isothermality (Bio3), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) are the dominant climate variables, in addition to vegetation, elevation, and soil factors. The proportion of suitable habitats for Trollius wildflowers varies considerably over time, from 0.14% to 70.97%. The majority of habitat loss or gain occurs at the edges of mountains, while stable habitats are concentrated in the core of the mountains. The gravity center of suitable habitats also shifts with spatial transfer, with the shifts mainly occurring in a northeasterly-southwesterly direction. The SSP1-2.6 scenario results in the sustained maintenance of habitats, whereas the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios present challenges to the conservation of habitats. The threshold of ecological niche breadth for Trollius wildflowers is subject to fluctuations, while the ecological niche differentiation also varies. The study aims to examine the evolution of the habitat and ecological niche of Trollius wildflowers in Xinjiang under climate change. The findings will provide theoretical support for delineating the conservation area, clarify the scope of mountain flower tourism development and protection of mountain flower resources, and promote the sustainable development of ecotourism and effective utilization of territorial space in Xinjiang.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenhao Fan
- School of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
| | - Yanyun Luo
- School of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
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14
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Zhang L, Jiang B, Meng Y, Jia Y, Xu Q, Pan Y. The Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hibiscus mutabilis in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Prediction. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:1744. [PMID: 38999584 PMCID: PMC11244350 DOI: 10.3390/plants13131744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2024] [Revised: 06/18/2024] [Accepted: 06/20/2024] [Indexed: 07/14/2024]
Abstract
Our study utilized 374 geographical distribution records of H. mutabilis and 19 bioclimatic factors, employing the MaxEnt model and the Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). The key environmental variables influencing the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis were analyzed through the comprehensive contribution rate, permutation importance, and Pearson correlation coefficient. Based on this analysis, the contemporary and future suitable distribution areas and their extents were predicted. The results indicate that the key limiting factor affecting the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis is the precipitation of the driest month (bio14), with secondary factors being annual precipitation (bio12), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual temperature range (bio7). Under contemporary climate conditions, the total suitable area for H. mutabilis is approximately 2,076,600 km2, primarily concentrated in the tropical and subtropical regions of southeastern China. Under low-to-medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5), the total suitable area of H. mutabilis shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing compared to the current scenario. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), it exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The spatial pattern changes indicate that the retention rate of suitable areas for H. mutabilis ranges from 95.28% to 99.28%, with the distribution centers primarily located in Hunan and Guizhou provinces, showing an overall migration trend towards the west and north. These findings suggest that H. mutabilis possesses a certain level of adaptability to climate change. However, it is crucial to consider regional drought and sudden drought events in practical cultivation and introduction processes. The results of our study provide a scientific basis for the rational cultivation management, conservation, and utilization of germplasm resources of H. mutabilis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lu Zhang
- College of Landscape Architecture, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
| | - Beibei Jiang
- College of Landscape Architecture, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
| | - Yu Meng
- College of Landscape Architecture and Tourism, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China
| | - Yin Jia
- College of Landscape Architecture, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
| | - Qian Xu
- College of Landscape Architecture, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
| | - Yuanzhi Pan
- College of Forestry, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
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15
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Huang Q, Liu H, Li C, Zhu X, Yuan Z, Lai J, Cao M, Huang Z, Yang Y, Zhuo S, Lü Z, Zhang G. Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2024; 15:1360190. [PMID: 38779065 PMCID: PMC11109598 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1360190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
Introduction Arid and semi-arid regions are climate-sensitive areas, which account for about 40% of the world's land surface area. Future environment change will impact the environment of these area, resulting in a sharp expansion of arid and semi-arid regions. Cotoneaster multiflorus is a multi-functional tree species with extreme cold, drought and barren resistance, as well as ornamental and medicinal functions. It was found to be one of the most important tree species for ecological restoration in arid and semi-arid areas. However, bioclimatic factors play an important role in the growth, development and distribution of plants. Therefore, exploring the response pattern and ecological adaptability of C. multiflorus to future climate change is important for the long-term ecological restoration of C. multiflorus in arid and semi-arid areas. Methods In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of C. multiflorus in China under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt 2.0 model, and discussed its adaptability and the major factors affecting its geographical distribution. Results The major factors that explained the geographical distribution of C. multiflorus were Annual precipitation (Bio12), Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). However, C. multiflorus could thrive in environments where Annual precipitation (Bio12) >150 mm, Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) > -42.5°C, and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) > -20°C, showcasing its characteristics of cold and drought tolerance. Under different future climate scenarios, the total suitable area for C. multiflorus ranged from 411.199×104 km² to 470.191×104 km², which was 0.8~6.14 percentage points higher than the current total suitable area. Additionally, it would further shift towards higher latitude. Discussion The MaxEnt 2.0 model predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. multiflorus in the context of future climate change, and identified its ecological adaptability and the main climatic factors affecting its distribution. This study provides an important theoretical basis for natural vegetation restoration in arid and semi-arid areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiuliang Huang
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Haoyang Liu
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Changshun Li
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
- Service Center, Fujian Meteorological Bureau, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Xiaoru Zhu
- Project Department, Norite International Construction Group Co., Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zongsheng Yuan
- Institute of Oceanography, Minjiang University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Jialiang Lai
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Minghui Cao
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Zhenbei Huang
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Yushan Yang
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Shenglan Zhuo
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Zengwei Lü
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Guofang Zhang
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
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Vintsek L, Klichowska E, Nowak A, Nobis M. Insight into the phylogeny and responses of species from the genus Sergia (Campanulaceae) to the climate changes predicted for the Mountains of Central Asia (a world biodiversity hotspot). BMC PLANT BIOLOGY 2024; 24:228. [PMID: 38561665 PMCID: PMC10986085 DOI: 10.1186/s12870-024-04938-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/20/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Together with other elevated areas, the Mountains of Central Asia are significantly threatened by ongoing climate change. The presence of refuges during the glaciations makes the region extremely rich in species, especially endemic ones. However, the limited potential for colonisation of other habitats makes rocky-related species with 'island-like' distribution, particularly vulnerable to climate change. To understand the processes underlying species response to climate warming, we assessed differences in ecological niches and phylogenetic relationship of two geographically disjunctive alpine species belonging to the genus Sergia. The taxa are considered Tertiary relicts, endemic to the Tian Shan and Pamir-Alai Mountains. To illustrate range dynamics and differences in occupied niches of Sergia species, we used Ecological Niche Modelling of current and future distribution. Whereas, to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship within and between Sergia and other related Campanulaceae species from the region we used molecular data (ITS, cpDNA, DArTseq-derived SNPs). RESULTS The results reveal that the genus Sergia is a polyphyletic group, and its representatives differ geographically, ecologically and genetically. Both S. regelii and S. sewerzowii constitute a common clade with Asyneuma group, however, S. sewerzowii is more closely related to Campanula alberti (a species that has never previously been considered closely related to the genus Asyneuma or Sergia) than to S. regelii. Sergia sewerzowii is adapted to lower elevations with higher temperatures, while S. regelii prefers higher elevations with lower temperatures. The future distribution models demonstrate a dramatic loss of S. regelii range with a shift to suitable habitats in higher elevations, while the potential range of S. sewerzowii increases and shifts to the north. CONCLUSIONS This study shows that S. regelii and S. sewerzowii have a long and independent evolution history. Sergia regelii and S. sewerzowii significantly differ in realised niches. These differences are mirrored in the response of the studied endemics to future climate warming. As suitable habitats shrink, rapid changes in distribution can lead to species' range loss, which is also directly related to declines in genetic variability. The outcomes of this paper will help to more precisely assess the impact of climate changes on rocky-related plant species found in this world's biodiversity hotspot.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lizaveta Vintsek
- Institute of Botany, Faculty of Biology, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 3, Kraków, 30-387, Poland.
| | - Ewelina Klichowska
- Institute of Botany, Faculty of Biology, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 3, Kraków, 30-387, Poland
| | - Arkadiusz Nowak
- Polish Academy of Sciences Botanical Garden, Center for Biological Diversity Conservation in Powsin, Prawdziwka 2, Warsaw, 02-973, Poland
- Botanical Garden of the Wrocław University, Sienkiewicza 23, 50-335, Wrocław, Poland
| | - Marcin Nobis
- Institute of Botany, Faculty of Biology, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 3, Kraków, 30-387, Poland.
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Ma Q, Li Y, Li X, Liu J, Keyimu M, Zeng F, Liu Y. Modeling future changes in potential habitats of five alpine vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau by incorporating snow depth and snow phenology. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 918:170399. [PMID: 38296095 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/27/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/13/2024]
Abstract
Although snow cover is a major factor affecting vegetation in alpine regions, it is rarely introduced into ecological niche models in alpine regions. Snow phenology over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was estimated using a daily passive microwave snow depth dataset, and future datasets of snow depth and snow phenology were projected based on their sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, the potential habitats of five alpine vegetation types on the TP were predicted under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) by using a model with incorporated snow variables, and the driving factors of habitat change were analyzed. The results showed that the inclusion of snow variables improved the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model, particularly in alpine meadow habitats. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitats of steppes, meadows, shrubs, deserts, and coniferous forests on the TP will migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes, in which the potential habitats of alpine desert will recede (replaced by alpine steppe), and the potential habitats of other four vegetation types will expand. The random forest importance analysis showed that the recession of potential habitat was mainly driven by the increase in average annual temperature, and the expansion of potential habitat was mainly driven by the increase in precipitation. With the gradual increase in temperature and precipitation in the future, the snow depth and snow cover duration days will decrease, which may further lead to the transition of vegetation types from cold-adapted to warm-adapted on the TP. Our study highlights both that the prediction accuracy of alpine vegetation was improved by incorporating snow variables into the species distribution model, and that a changing climate will likely have a powerful influence on the distribution of alpine vegetation across the TP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qianqian Ma
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Yanyan Li
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Key Laboratory of Agro-Ecological Processes in Subtropical Region, Changsha Research Station for Agricultural and Environmental Monitoring, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha 410125, China.
| | - Xiangyi Li
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
| | - Ji Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China; Hubei Province Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Maierdang Keyimu
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Fanjiang Zeng
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Yalan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, Xinjiang, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Plant Roots Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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Zhang H, Li J, Zou H, Wang Z, Zhu X, Zhang Y, Liu Z. Distribution Pattern of Suitable Areas and Corridor Identification of Endangered Ephedra Species in China. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:890. [PMID: 38592953 PMCID: PMC10975542 DOI: 10.3390/plants13060890] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2024] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/18/2024] [Indexed: 04/11/2024]
Abstract
The suitable habitat of endangered Ephedra species has been severely threatened and affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities; however, their migration trends and restoration strategies are still relatively understudied. In this study, we utilized the MaxEnt model to simulate the suitable habitats of five endangered Ephedra species in China under current and future climate scenarios. Additionally, we identified significant ecological corridors by incorporating the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable area of Ephedra equisetina Bunge, Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey, Ephedra sinica Stapf, and Ephedra monosperma Gmel ex Mey comprised 16% of the area in China, while Ephedra rhytidosperma Pachom comprised only 0.05%. The distribution patterns of these five Ephedra species were primarily influenced by altitude, salinity, temperature, and precipitation. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of E. equisetina, E. intermedia, and E. sinica are projected to expand, while that of E. monosperma is expected to contract. Notably, E. rhytidosperma will lose its suitable area in the future. Our identified ecological corridors showed that the first-level corridors encompassed a wider geographical expanse, incorporating E. equisetina, E. intermedia, E. sinica, and E. monosperma, while that of E. rhytidosperma exhibited a shorter length and covered fewer geographical areas. Overall, our study provides novel insights into identifying priority protected areas and protection strategies targeting endangered Ephedra species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huayong Zhang
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; (J.L.); (H.Z.); (Z.W.)
- Theoretical Ecology and Engineering Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 250100, China;
| | - Jiangpeng Li
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; (J.L.); (H.Z.); (Z.W.)
| | - Hengchao Zou
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; (J.L.); (H.Z.); (Z.W.)
| | - Zhongyu Wang
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; (J.L.); (H.Z.); (Z.W.)
| | - Xinyu Zhu
- Dalian Eco-Environmental Affairs Service Center, No. 58 Lianshan Street, Shahekou District, Dalian 116026, China;
| | - Yihe Zhang
- School of Engineering, RMIT University, P.O. Box 71, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia;
| | - Zhao Liu
- Theoretical Ecology and Engineering Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 250100, China;
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Mirhashemi H, Ahmadi K, Heydari M, Karami O, Valkó O, Khwarahm NR. Climatic variables are more effective on the spatial distribution of oak forests than land use change across their historical range. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2024; 196:289. [PMID: 38381166 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-024-12438-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2023] [Accepted: 02/03/2024] [Indexed: 02/22/2024]
Abstract
The current research is conducted to model the effect of climate change and land use change (LUC) on the geographical distribution of Quercus brantii Lindl. (QB) forests across their historical range. Forecasting was done based on six general circulation models under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 future climate change scenarios for the future years 2050 and 2070. In order to model the species distribution, different modeling methods were used. The results indicated that, in general, climatic variables had a higher influence on the distribution of QB than land use-related attributes. The mean diurnal range (bio2), the precipitation seasonality (bio15), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) were the main predictors in the distribution of QB forests, while land use variables were less important in oak species distribution. The GBM, MaxEnt, and RF had higher accuracy and performance in modeling species distribution. The outputs also showed that in the current climate circumstances, 97,608.81 km2 of the studied area has high desirability for the presence of QB, and by 2070, under the pessimistic scenario, 96.29% of these habitats will be lost under the concomitant effect of LUC and climate change. By using the results of this research, it is possible to predict and identify the effective factors in changing the habitat of this oak species with more certainty. Based on the insights obtained from the results of such studies, the protection and restoration planning of the habitat of this key species, which supports diverse species, will be provided more efficiently.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hengameh Mirhashemi
- Department of Forest Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
| | - Kourosh Ahmadi
- Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mehdi Heydari
- Department of Forest Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.
| | - Omid Karami
- General Department of Natural Resources and Watershed Management of Ilam Province, Ilam, Iran
| | - Orsolya Valkó
- HUN-REN 'Lendület' Seed Ecology Research Group, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Nabaz R Khwarahm
- Department of Biology, College of Education, University of Sulaimani, Kurdistan Region, Sulaimani, 46001, Iraq
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Li Y, Wang Y, Du X, Zhao C, He P, Meng F. Spatial distribution dynamics for Epimedium brevicornum Maxim. from 1970 to 2020. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11010. [PMID: 38390006 PMCID: PMC10881348 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 01/18/2024] [Accepted: 01/24/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024] Open
Abstract
At different time scales, a species will experience diverse distribution changes. For Epimedium brevicornum Maxim, the phenomenon is obvious, but the understanding of the spatial dynamics of E. brevicornum under distinct time scales is poor. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution for E. brevicornum for five time scales, 1970-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2019, with different occurrence data, and the Kuenm package was used to optimize the parameter combination. Then, SDM tools and a Venn diagram were utilized to simulate the changes in highly suitable areas and spatial dynamics, respectively. Comprehensive results show that temperature seasonality (BIO4, 37.54%) has the greatest effect on the distribution of E. brevicornum, followed by minimum temperature (TMIN, 21.42%). The areas of distribution for E. brevicornum are 35.06 × 105 km2, 25.7 × 105 km2, 67.64 × 105 km2, 27.29 × 105 km2, and 9.87× 105 km2, which are mainly concentrated in Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan, respectively. In addition, the largest regions for expansion, stability, and contraction under various time scales are 5.6 × 105 km2, 3.54 × 105 km2, and 3.47 × 105 km2, respectively. These changes indicate that approximately 7.96% of the regions are highly stable, and three critical counties, Wanyuan, Chenggu, and Hechuan, and Xixiang, have become significant areas for migration. Overall, our results indicate that there are different spatial distribution patterns and dynamics for E. brevicornum for different time scales. Given these results, this study also proposes comprehensive strategies for the conservation and management of E. brevicornum, which will further improve the current resource utilization status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunfeng Li
- Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Chengde Medical University Chengde Hebei China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization Beijing Normal University Beijing China
| | - Yan Wang
- Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Chengde Medical University Chengde Hebei China
| | - Xiaojuan Du
- Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Chengde Medical University Chengde Hebei China
| | - Chunying Zhao
- Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Chengde Medical University Chengde Hebei China
| | - Ping He
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization Beijing Normal University Beijing China
| | - Fanyun Meng
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Protection and Utilization Beijing Normal University Beijing China
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Zhao Q, Li H, Chen C, Fan S, Wei J, Cai B, Zhang H. Potential Global Distribution of Paracoccus marginatus, under Climate Change Conditions, Using MaxEnt. INSECTS 2024; 15:98. [PMID: 38392517 PMCID: PMC10888652 DOI: 10.3390/insects15020098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2023] [Revised: 01/21/2024] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024]
Abstract
The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is an invasive pest species found all over the world. It is native to Mexico and Central America, but is now present in more than 50 countries and regions, seriously threatening the economic viability of the agricultural and forestry industry. In the current study, the global potential distribution of P. marginatus was predicted under current and future climatic conditions using MaxEnt. The results of the model assessment indicated that the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic ( ROC-AUC) was 0.949, while the TSS value was 0.820. The results also showed that the three variables with the greatest impact on the model were min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of wettest month (bio13), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), with corresponding contributions of 46.8%, 31.1%, and 13.1%, respectively. The results indicated that the highly suitable areas were mainly located in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, southern North America, Central America, Central Africa, Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia. Under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of suitability will change very little. Moreover, the results showed that the area of suitable areas in 2070s increased under all four climate scenarios compared to the current climate. In contrast, the area of suitable habitat increases from the current to the 2050s under the SSP370 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The current study could provide a reference framework for the future control and management of papaya mealybug and other invasive species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qing Zhao
- College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801, China
| | - Huiping Li
- Technology Center of Taiyuan Customs, No. 1 Xieyuan Road, Jingyuan District, Taiyuan City 030021, China
| | - Chao Chen
- College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801, China
| | - Shiyu Fan
- College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801, China
| | - Jiufeng Wei
- College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801, China
| | - Bo Cai
- Hainan Province Engineering Research Center for Quarantine, Prevention and Control of Exotic Pests, Haikou Customs District, Haikou 570311, China
| | - Hufang Zhang
- College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu 030801, China
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Shahid H, Hyder S, Naeem M, Sehar A, Gondal AS, Rizvi ZF, Iqbal R, Habib Ur Rahman M, Alwahibi MS, Elshikh MS, Ayaz M, Arslan M, de Los Santos-Villalobos S, Montoya-Martínez AC. Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Dickeya zeae causal agent of stalk rot of maize in Sialkot district Pakistan. Sci Rep 2024; 14:2614. [PMID: 38297010 PMCID: PMC10830500 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-52668-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Maize (Zea mays) is an influential crop in its production across the world. However, the invasion of many phytopathogens greatly affects the maize crop yield at various hotspot areas. Of many diseases, bacterial stalk rot of maize caused by Dickeya zeae results in severe yield reduction, thus the need for efficient management is important. Further, to produce epidemiological information for control of disease outbreaks in the hot spot regions of Sialkot District, Punjab Pakistan, extensive field surveys during 2021 showed that out of 266 visited areas, the highest disease incidence ranging from 66.5 to 78.5% while the lowest incidence was ranging from 9 to 20%. The Maxent modeling revealed that among 19 environmental variables, four variables including temperature seasonality (bio-4), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio-8), annual precipitation (bio-12), and precipitation of driest month (bio-14) were significantly contributing to disease distribution in current and coming years. The study outcomes revealed that disease spread will likely increase across four tehsils of Sialkot over the years 2050 and 2070. Our findings will be helpful to policymakers and researchers in devising effective disease management strategies against bacterial stalk rot of maize outbreaks in Sialkot, Pakistan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Humaira Shahid
- Department of Botany, Government College Women University Sialkot, Sialkot, 51310, Pakistan
| | - Sajjad Hyder
- Department of Botany, Government College Women University Sialkot, Sialkot, 51310, Pakistan.
| | - Muhammad Naeem
- Department of Zoology, Riphah International University Faisalabad Campus, Faisalabad, 44000, Pakistan
| | - Anam Sehar
- Department of Student Affairs and Counselling, Lahore Garrison University, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
| | - Amjad Shahzad Gondal
- Department of Plant Pathology, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, 60000, Pakistan
| | - Zarrin Fatima Rizvi
- Department of Botany, Government College Women University Sialkot, Sialkot, 51310, Pakistan
| | - Rashid Iqbal
- Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawapur, 63100, Pakistan.
| | - Muhammed Habib Ur Rahman
- Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany
- Department of Seed Science and Technology, Institute of Plant Breeding and Biotechnology (IPBB), MNS-University of Agriculture, Multan, 66000, Pakistan
| | - Mona S Alwahibi
- Department of Botany and Microbiology, College of Science, King Saud University, 11451, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohamed S Elshikh
- Department of Botany and Microbiology, College of Science, King Saud University, 11451, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Muhammad Ayaz
- Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Institute of Agriculture, Instituto Al. 1, 58344, Akademija, Kėdainiai Dist., Lithuania
- Vytautas Magnus University Agriculture Academy Bioeconomy Research Institute, Studentų Str. 11, 53361, Akademija, Kauno R., Lithuania
| | - Muhammad Arslan
- Institute of Agroecology and Organic Farming Group, University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany.
| | | | - Amelia C Montoya-Martínez
- Departamento de Ciencias Agronomicas y Veterinarias, Instituto Tecnologico de Sonora, 85010, Ciudad Obregon, SO, Mexico
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23
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Liu W, Meng H, Dong B, Fan J, Zhu X, Zhou H. Predicting potential distribution of the Rhinoncus sibiricus under climatic in China using MaxEnt. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0297126. [PMID: 38241257 PMCID: PMC10798473 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/28/2023] [Indexed: 01/21/2024] Open
Abstract
In recent years, buckwheat (Fagopyrum spp.) is being increasingly damaged by the Siberian tortoise beetle (Rhinoncus sibiricus Faust). Adults and nymphs feed on leaf tissues and caulicles, thus damaging its stems and leaves. In this study, we investigated the habits, distribution, and environmental impact of R. sibiricus using MaxEnt, an ecological niche model. Geographic information about the infestation site from previous field surveys and climatic data from 2013 to 2018 were organized and optimized using R. The impact factors were calculated using MaxEnt software. The results indicate that population fluctuations in R. sibiricus are related to changes in temperature, humidity, and their spatial distribution. Under current climatic conditions, R. sibiricus is mainly distributed in northern China, with sporadic distribution in south-western China. The values for a survival probability threshold > 0.3 were: precipitation during the wettest month (bio13), 70.31-137.56 mm; mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), -15.00-0.85°C; mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), 11.88-23.16°C; precipitation during the coldest quarter (biol9), 0-24.39 mm. The main factors contributing > 70% to the models were precipitation during the wettest month and coldest quarter, and mean temperature during the warmest and coldest quarters. Under both future climate models, the center of the fitness zone moves northward. Our results will be useful in guiding administrative decisions and support farmers interested in establishing control and management strategies for R. sibiricus. This study could also serve as a reference for future research on other invasive pests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wanyou Liu
- College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
| | - Huanwen Meng
- College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
| | - Baozhu Dong
- Key Laboratory of Biopesticide Creation and Resource Utilization of Inner Mongolia Higher Education Institution, China
| | - Jinyu Fan
- Bureau of Agriculture and Herding, Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia, China
| | - Xiaoqing Zhu
- Ulangab Institute of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Ulangab, Inner Mongolia, China
| | - Hongyou Zhou
- College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
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24
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Li J, Deng C, Duan G, Wang Z, Zhang Y, Fan G. Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2024; 14:1279019. [PMID: 38264027 PMCID: PMC10803630 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1279019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2024]
Abstract
Introduction Goji berry (Lycium barbarum L.) is a famous edible and medicinal herb worldwide with considerable consumption. The recent cultivation of goji berries in the Daodi region was seriously reduced due to increased production costs and the influence of policy on preventing nongrain use of arable land in China. Consequently, production of Daodi goji berry was insufficient to meet market demands for high-quality medicinal materials. Searching for regions similar to the Daodi region was necessary. Methods The MaxEnt model was used to predicted the current and future potential regions suitable for goji berry in China based on the environmental characteristics of the Daodi region (including Zhongning County of Zhongwei prefecture-level city, and its surroundings), and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region. Results The results showed that when the parameters were FC = LQHP and RM = 2.1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the most critical variables shaping the distribution of Daodi goji berries. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the Daodi goji berry were 45,973.88 km2, accounting for 0.48% of China's land area, which were concentrated in the central and western Ningxia Province (22,589.42 km2), and the central region of Gansu Province (18,787.07 km2) bordering western Ningxia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was higher than that under current climate conditions and reached the maximum under RCP 6.0 (91,256.42 km2) in the 2050s and RCP 8.5 (82,459.17 km2) in the 2070s. The expansion regions were mainly distributed in the northeast of the current suitable ranges, and the distributional centroids were mainly shifted to the northeast. The moderately and highly suitable overlapping habitats were mainly distributed in Baiyin (7,241.75 km2), Zhongwei (6,757.81 km2), and Wuzhong (5, 236.87 km2) prefecture-level cities. Discussion In this stduy, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to predict and analyze the suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. Our results indicate that climate warming is conducive to cultivating Daodi goji berry and will not cause a shift in the Daodi region. The goji berry produced in Baiyin could be used to satisfy the demand for high-quality medicinal materials. This study addresses the insufficient supply and guides the cultivation of Daodi goji berry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianling Li
- Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Qinghai Plateau Tree Genetics and Breeding Laboratory, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Laboratory for Research and Utilization of Qinghai Tibet Plateau Germplasm Resources, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Changrong Deng
- Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Qinghai Plateau Tree Genetics and Breeding Laboratory, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Laboratory for Research and Utilization of Qinghai Tibet Plateau Germplasm Resources, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Guozhen Duan
- Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Qinghai Plateau Tree Genetics and Breeding Laboratory, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Laboratory for Research and Utilization of Qinghai Tibet Plateau Germplasm Resources, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Zhanlin Wang
- Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Qinghai Plateau Tree Genetics and Breeding Laboratory, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Laboratory for Research and Utilization of Qinghai Tibet Plateau Germplasm Resources, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Yede Zhang
- Qinghai Kunlun Goji Industry Technology Innovation Research Co., Ltd., Delingha, China
| | - Guanghui Fan
- Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Qinghai Plateau Tree Genetics and Breeding Laboratory, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China
- Laboratory for Research and Utilization of Qinghai Tibet Plateau Germplasm Resources, Qinghai University, Xining, China
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25
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Fang H, Zhang P, Xu S, Xu T, He B, Wang E, Dong C, Yang Q. The ecological suitability area of Cirsium lineare (Thunb.) Sch.-Bip. under future climate change in China based on MaxEnt modeling. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e10848. [PMID: 38264336 PMCID: PMC10805606 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2023] [Revised: 10/26/2023] [Accepted: 12/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Many kinds of medicinal ingredients occur in Cirsium lineare that have good clinical efficacy, conferring on this species its high medicinal development value. However, with a rapidly changing global climate, it is increasingly imperative to study the factors affecting the habitat distribution and survival of species. We predicted the current and future distribution areas of suitable habitats for C. lineare, analyzed the importance of environmental variables in influencing habitat shifts, and described the alterations to suitable habitats of C. lineare in different periods (modern, 2050s, and 2070s) and scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results show that, under the current climate, the total suitable area of C. lineare is about 2,220,900 km2, of which the highly suitable portion amounts to ca. 292,600 km2. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, and mean daily temperature range are the chief environmental variables affecting the distribution of habitat for C. lineare. In the same period, with rising greenhouse gas emission concentrations, the total suitable area will increase. In general, under future climate change, the suitable habitat for C. lineare will gradually migrate to the west and north, and its total suitable area will also expand. The results of this experiment can be used for the conservation and management of the wild resources of C. lineare. We can choose suitable growth areas to protect the medicinal resources of C. lineare through in situ conservation and artificial breeding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hu‐Qiang Fang
- College of PharmacyAnhui University of Chinese MedicineHefeiChina
| | - Peng‐Fei Zhang
- College of PharmacyAnhui University of Chinese MedicineHefeiChina
- Dexing Research and Training Center of Chinese Medical SciencesDexingChina
| | - Shao‐Wei Xu
- College of PharmacyAnhui University of Chinese MedicineHefeiChina
| | - Teng Xu
- College of PharmacyAnhui University of Chinese MedicineHefeiChina
| | - Bing He
- College of PharmacyAnhui University of Chinese MedicineHefeiChina
| | - En Wang
- College of PharmacyAnhui University of Chinese MedicineHefeiChina
| | - Chang‐Wu Dong
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Traditional Chinese MedicineHefeiChina
| | - Qing‐Shan Yang
- College of PharmacyAnhui University of Chinese MedicineHefeiChina
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Li WB, Teng Y, Zhang MY, Shen Y, Liu JW, Qi JW, Wang XC, Wu RF, Li JH, Garber PA, Li M. Human activity and climate change accelerate the extinction risk to non-human primates in China. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17114. [PMID: 38273577 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2023] [Revised: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 12/10/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Human activity and climate change affect biodiversity and cause species range shifts, contractions, and expansions. Globally, human activities and climate change have emerged as persistent threats to biodiversity, leading to approximately 68% of the ~522 primate species being threatened with extinction. Here, we used habitat suitability models and integrated data on human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), road construction, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the location of protected areas (PAs), and climate change to predict potential changes in the distributional range and richness of 26 China's primate species. Our results indicate that both PAs and NDVI have a positive impact on primate distributions. With increasing anthropogenic pressure, species' ranges were restricted to areas of high vegetation cover and in PAs surrounded by buffer zones of 2.7-4.5 km and a core area of PAs at least 0.1-0.5 km from the closest edge of the PA. Areas with a GDP below the Chinese national average of 100,000 yuan were found to be ecologically vulnerable, and this had a negative impact on primate distributions. Changes in temperature and precipitation were also significant contributors to a reduction in the range of primate species. Under the expected influence of climate change over the next 30-50 years, we found that highly suitable habitat for primates will continue to decrease and species will be restricted to smaller and more peripheral parts of their current range. Areas of high primate diversity are expected to lose from 3 to 7 species. We recommend that immediate action be taken, including expanding China's National Park Program, the Ecological Conservation Redline Program, and the Natural Forest Protection Program, along with a stronger national policy promoting alternative/sustainable livelihoods for people in the local communities adjacent to primate ranges, to offset the detrimental effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change on primate survivorship.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wen-Bo Li
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei, Anhui, China
- International Collaborative Research Center for Huangshan Biodiversity and Tibetan Macaque Behavioral Ecology, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Yang Teng
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Ming-Yi Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Ying Shen
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jia-Wen Liu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Ji-Wei Qi
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Xiao-Chen Wang
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Rui-Feng Wu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jin-Hua Li
- International Collaborative Research Center for Huangshan Biodiversity and Tibetan Macaque Behavioral Ecology, Hefei, Anhui, China
- School of Life Sciences, Hefei Normal University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Paul A Garber
- Department of Anthropology and Program in Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois, USA
- International Centre of Biodiversity and Primate Conservation, Dali University, Dali, Yunnan, China
| | - Ming Li
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Ali S, Makanda TA, Umair M, Ni J. MaxEnt model strategies to studying current and future potential land suitability dynamics of wheat, soybean and rice cultivation under climatic change scenarios in East Asia. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0296182. [PMID: 38127929 PMCID: PMC10735186 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296182] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 12/07/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change and variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crops cultivation. Accurately predicting changes in the potential current and future land suitability distribution dynamics of wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max) and rice (Oryza sativa) crops due to climate change scenarios is critical to adapting and mitigating the impacts of bioclimatic changes, and plays a significant role in securing food security in East Asia region. This study compiled large datasets of wheat, soybean and rice occurrence locations from GBIF and 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim database that affect crops growth. We recognized potential future suitable distribution regions for crops under the one socioeconomic pathway, (SSP585) for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, using the MaxEnt model. The accuracy of the MaxEnt was highly significant with mean AUC values ranging from 0.833 to 0.882 for all models evaluated. The jackknife test revealed that for wheat, Bio4 and Bio12 contributed 17.6% and 12.6%, for soybean Bio10 and Bio12 contributed 15.6% and 49.5%, while for rice Bio12 and Bio14 contributed 12.9% and 36.0% to the MaxEnt model. In addition, cultivation aptitude for wheat, soybean, and rice increased in southeast China, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, while decreasing in Mongolia and northwest China. Climate change is expected to increase the high land suitability for wheat, soybean, and rice in East Asia. Simulation results indicate an average decrease of unsuitable areas of -98.5%, -41.2% and -36.3% for wheat, soybean and rice from 2060 than that of current land suitability. In contrast, the high land suitable for wheat, soybean and rice cultivation is projected to increase by 75.1%, 68.5% and 81.9% from 2060 as compared with current. The findings of this study are of utmost importance in the East Asia region as they present an opportunity for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies required to sustain crops distribution under future climates. Although the risks of wheat, soybean and rice cultivation may be significantly higher in the future because of high temperatures, heat waves, and droughts caused by climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shahzad Ali
- College of Life Science, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China
- Department of Agriculture, Hazara University, Mansehra, Pakistan
| | | | - Muhammad Umair
- College of Life Science, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China
| | - Jian Ni
- College of Life Science, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China
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Colón Carrión N, Macchiavelli Girón S. From the classroom to the farm: a lesson plan that promotes smallholder farmers' education and training about plant pathology in the context of climate change. JOURNAL OF MICROBIOLOGY & BIOLOGY EDUCATION 2023; 24:e00090-23. [PMID: 38108013 PMCID: PMC10720474 DOI: 10.1128/jmbe.00090-23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/01/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change represents one of the biggest threats to agricultural productivity around the world. In the tropics, extreme climate and pest and disease outbreaks represent one of the biggest climate change threats to smallholder farmers. Understanding smallholder farmers' educational needs and increasing access to information and awareness of climate change through education and training are key first steps to enhance the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers. In a primary effort to increase accessible training and education to these communities, we developed a plant pathology lesson plan. The lesson plan introduces basic concepts in plant pathology and disease management using diverse educational activities focused on experiential and collaborative learning. This lesson plan may have implications in enhancing farmers' adaptive capacity and increasing accessible education to underrepresented farming communities around the world.
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Guiquan S, Jiali F, Shuai G, Wenya H, Xiangkun K, Sheng Z, Yueling Z, Xuelian J. Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Rhamnus utilis Decne in China. BMC PLANT BIOLOGY 2023; 23:592. [PMID: 38008724 PMCID: PMC10680213 DOI: 10.1186/s12870-023-04574-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rhamnus utilis Decne (Rhamnaceae) is an ecologically and economically important tree species. The growing market demands and recent anthropogenic impacts to R. utilis forests has negatively impacted its populations severely. However, little is known about the potential distribution of this species and environmental factors that affect habitat suitability for this species. By using 219 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated for R. utilis using Maxent modeling; the important environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed. RESULTS January water vapor pressure, normalized difference vegetation index, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter represented the critical factors explaining the environmental requirements of R. utilis. The potential habitat of R. utilis included most provinces from central to southeast China. Under the climate change scenario SSP 245, Maxent predicted a cumulative loss of ca. 0.73 × 105 km2 in suitable habitat for R. utilis during 2041-2060 while an increase of ca. 0.65 × 105 km2 occurred during 2081-2100. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher elevations. CONCLUSIONS The findings of our study provide a foundation for targeted conservation efforts and inform future research on R. utilis. By considering the identified environmental factors and anticipating the potential impacts of climate change, conservation strategies can be developed to preserve and restore suitable habitats for R. utilis. Protecting this species is not only crucial for maintaining biodiversity but also for sustaining the economic benefits associated with its ecological services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Song Guiquan
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Feng Jiali
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Gong Shuai
- Sinochem Agriculture Holdings Co. Ltd, Beijing, 1000323, China
| | - Hao Wenya
- Sinochem Agriculture Holdings Co. Ltd, Beijing, 1000323, China
| | - Kong Xiangkun
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Zhao Sheng
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Zhao Yueling
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China
| | - Jiang Xuelian
- Weifang Municipal Key Laboratory of Agricultural Planting Quantization and Application, Weifang University, Weifang, Shandong, 261061, China.
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Bulut S, Aytaş İ. Modeling potential distribution and above-ground biomass of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:1471. [PMID: 37964125 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-12101-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023]
Abstract
Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) holds a substantial position as a tree species designated for biomass energy within European forests, covering a significant part of Türkiye's forests. We used the machine learning technique, namely, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), to estimate the suitable areas for Scots pine and to investigate its potential future distribution under various climate change scenarios in Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye. The distribution data of Scots pine was utilized, and a set of 20 variables was chosen from spectral, topographic, and bioclimatic datasets to train the MaxEnt model. A map depicting the potential distribution of Scots pine in the area was generated, and alterations in its spatial distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios were predicted. The results showed that the most effective factors for the distribution of Scots pine in the region were normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Red band of the imagery, and Bio19 variables, and the contribution percentages were 45.6%, 18.5%, and 18.1%, respectively. Current conditions have indicated that 81.11% of the region is not suitable for Scots pine. Highly suitable areas for Scots pine constituted 0.88% of the total area in the east and southeast parts of the region. Considering the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it has been determined that there may be a partial increase in highly suitable areas. The above-ground biomass (AGB) data generated based on potential distribution areas were predicted between 0.04 and 168.76 t ha-1, and the areas with dense biomass over 120 t ha-1 were identified in the west, north, and northeast parts of the region. While actual AGB of Scots pine was 6.92 MT, its potential AGB was estimated 125.93 MT in total area. The difference may well be attributed to the wide potential distribution of Scots pine stands in the area apart from the current forest lands. Nevertheless, this research contributes to the holistic management of forests and provides substantial values for formulating well-suited silvicultural interventions, developing sustainable forest management strategies, and furthering research aimed at estimating biomass reserves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sinan Bulut
- Department of Forestry Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, Çankırı Karatekin University, Çankırı, Türkiye.
| | - İbrahim Aytaş
- Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Forestry, Çankırı Karatekin University, Çankırı, Türkiye
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Evcin Ö. Can highway tunnel constructıon change the habitat selection of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus Linnaeus, 1758)? ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:1410. [PMID: 37922036 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-12003-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Accepted: 10/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/05/2023]
Abstract
One of the main things wildlife does for survival is movement. Wild animals need movement to meet their needs, such as reproduction, breeding, foraging, and dispersal. Although wildlife species use roads for various purposes, they also use them when moving from one habitat to another. In recent years, especially when it comes to habitat fragmentation brought about by urbanization, wild animals frequently use highways. Highways have a wide range of effects on factors such as biodiversity, wildlife, and ecology. Roads can cause habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, and habitat degradation; alter the composition of vegetation; act as barriers to the flow of genes and movement; increase human access to pristine areas; and even increase the risk of extinction for many threatened species. Species belonging to the family Cervidae also include the species most affected by road networks. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus Linnaeus, 1758) is the smallest of the 3 Cervid species living in Turkey. Roe deer are often injured or die in road accidents, and they are one of the most important species affected by the adverse effects of roads in Turkey. For this reason, it was investigated whether the road tunnel construction affected the distribution of roe deer in the region. In the study, the general distribution of roe deer in the Ilgaz Mountain, and the factors affecting their possible distribution were determined by ecological niche modeling. Data were taken between before (2012-2015) and after the highway tunnel built (2020-2022) in Ilgaz Mountain, which connects the Western Black Sea and Central Anatolia and is located in the middle of Kastamonu and Çankırı provinces. As a result of the modeling, it was found that before the construction of the tunnel, the most influential factor in the distribution of the deer was road density. After the tunnel construction, roads ceased to be the main factor affecting the distribution of the species. This study showed that roe deer are disturbed by the density of vehicles on the road passing through the middle of their habitat. With the decrease in the number of vehicles, they are more willing to cross the road and tend to use the areas close to the road as they are less disturbed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Özkan Evcin
- Dept. of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, Kastamonu University, 37150, Kuzeykent, Kastamonu, Turkey.
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Huang D, An Q, Huang S, Tan G, Quan H, Chen Y, Zhou J, Liao H. Biomod2 modeling for predicting the potential ecological distribution of three Fritillaria species under climate change. Sci Rep 2023; 13:18801. [PMID: 37914761 PMCID: PMC10620159 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-45887-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 11/03/2023] Open
Abstract
The Fritillaria species ranked as a well-known traditional medicine in China and has become rare due to excessive harvesting. To find reasonable strategy for conservation and cultivation, identification of new ecological distribution of Fritillaria species together with prediction of those responses to climate change are necessary. In terms of current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the suitable habitats for Fritillaria delavayi, Fritillaria taipaiensis, and Fritillaria wabuensis were predicted. In comparison with Maxent and GARP, Biomod2 obtained the best AUC, KAPPA and TSS values of larger than 0.926 and was chosen to construct model. Temperature seasonality was indicated to put the greatest influence on Fritillaria taipaiensis and Fritillaria wabuensis, while isothermality was of most importance for Fritillaria delavayi. The current suitable areas for three Fritillaria species were distributed in south-west China, accounting for approximately 17.72%, 23.06% and 20.60% of China's total area, respectively. During 2021-2100 period, the suitable habitats of F. delavayi and F. wabuensis reached the maximum under SSP585 scenario, while that of F. taipaiensis reached the maximum under SSP126 scenario. The high niche overlap among three Fritillaria species showed correlation with the chemical composition (P ≤ 0.05), while no correlation was observed between niche overlap and DNA barcodes, indicating that spatial distribution had a major influence on chemical composition in the Fritillaria species. Finally, the acquisition of species-specific habitats would contribute to decrease in habitat competition, and future conservation and cultivation of Fritillaria species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deya Huang
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China
| | - Qiuju An
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China
| | - Sipei Huang
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China
| | - Guodong Tan
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China
| | - Huige Quan
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China
| | - Yineng Chen
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China
| | - Jiayu Zhou
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China.
| | - Hai Liao
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China.
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Luo W, Han S, Yu T, Wang P, Ma Y, Wan M, Liu J, Li Z, Tao J. Assessing the suitability and dynamics of three medicinal Sambucus species in China under current and future climate scenarios. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2023; 14:1194444. [PMID: 37929169 PMCID: PMC10620941 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1194444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
Climate change exerts profound influences on the ecological environments on a global scale, leading to habitat destruction and altering distribution patterns for numerous plant species. Traditional Chinese medicinal plants, such as those belonging to the Sambucus genus, have been extensively utilized for several centuries to treat fractures, rheumatism, and inflammation. However, our understanding of their geographic distribution and climatic adaptation within China still needs to be improved. In this study, we screened the optimal predictive model (random forest model) to predict the potential suitable distribution of three Sambucus species (Sambucus adnata, Sambucus javanica, and Sambucus williamsii) across China under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, we identified key climate factors that influence their potential distributions. Our findings revealed that S. adnata and S. javanica are predominantly shaped by temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range, respectively, whereas S. williamsii is significantly affected by the precipitation of the wettest month. Currently, S. williamsii is primarily distributed in north and central south China (covering 9.57 × 105 km2), S. javanica is prevalent in the south and east regions (covering 6.41×105 km2), and S. adnata predominantly thrives in the southwest China (covering 1.99×105 km2). Under future climate change scenarios, it is anticipated that S. adnata may migrate to higher latitudes while S. javanica may shift to lower latitudes. However, potentially suitable areas for S. williamsii may contract under certain scenarios for the years 2050 and 2090, with an expansion trend under the SSP585 scenario for the year 2090. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic variables in influencing the potential geographic distribution of Sambucus species. These findings provide valuable theoretical insights for the preservation, cultivation, and utilization of Sambucus medicinal plant resources in the context of ongoing climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weixue Luo
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Shunxin Han
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Ting Yu
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Peng Wang
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Yuxuan Ma
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Maji Wan
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Jinchun Liu
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Zongfeng Li
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Jianping Tao
- Key Laboratory of Eco-environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), Chongqing Key Laboratory of Plant Ecology and Resources Research in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, School of Life Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
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Han Q, Liu Y, Jiang H, Chen X, Feng H. Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Wild Radish in East Asia. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:3187. [PMID: 37765351 PMCID: PMC10534784 DOI: 10.3390/plants12183187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Revised: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Climate change can exert a considerable influence on the geographic distribution of many taxa, including coastal plants and populations of some plant species closely related to those used as agricultural crops. East Asian wild radish, Raphanus raphanistrum subsp. sativus, is an annual coastal plant that is a wild relative of the cultivated radish (R. sativus). It has served as source of genetic material that has been helpful to develop and improve the quality and yield of radish crops. To assess the impact of climate change on wild radish in East Asia, we analyzed its distribution at different periods using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results indicated that the precipitation of the driest month (bio14) and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were the two most dominant environmental factors that affected the geographical distribution of wild radish in East Asia. The total potential area suitable for wild radish is 102.5574 × 104 km2, mainly located along the seacoasts of southern China, Korea, and the Japanese archipelago. Compared with its current distribution regions, the potentially suitable areas for wild radish in the 2070s will further increase and expand northwards in Japan, especially on the sand beach habitats of Hokkaido. This research reveals the spatiotemporal changes for the coastal plant wild radish under global warming and simultaneously provides a vital scientific basis for effective utilization and germplasm innovation for radish cultivars to achieve sustainable agriculture development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qingxiang Han
- College of Life Sciences, Zaozhuang University, Zaozhuang 277160, China;
- Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China;
| | - Ye Liu
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430078, China;
| | - Hongsheng Jiang
- Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, China;
| | - Xietian Chen
- Wuhan Britain-China School, Wuhan 430030, China;
| | - Huizhe Feng
- College of Life Sciences, Zaozhuang University, Zaozhuang 277160, China;
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Zheng Y, Yuan C, Matsushita N, Lian C, Geng Q. Analysis of the distribution pattern of the ectomycorrhizal fungus Cenococcum geophilum under climate change using the optimized MaxEnt model. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10565. [PMID: 37753310 PMCID: PMC10518754 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2023] [Revised: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Cenococcum geophilum (C. geophilum) is a widely distributed ectomycorrhizal fungus that plays a crucial role in forest ecosystems worldwide. However, the specific ecological factors influencing its global distribution and how climate change will affect its range are still relatively unknown. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model optimized with the kuenm package to simulate changes in the distribution pattern of C. geophilum from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future based on 164 global distribution records and 17 environmental variables and investigated the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. We employed the optimal parameter combination of RM = 4 and FC = QPH, resulting in a highly accurate predictive model. Our study clearly shows that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual precipitation are the key environmental factors influencing the suitable habitats of C. geophilum. Currently, appropriate habitats of C. geophilum are mainly distributed in eastern Asia, west-central Europe, the western seaboard and eastern regions of North America, and southeastern Australia, covering a total area of approximately 36,578,300 km2 globally. During the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene, C. geophilum had a much smaller distribution area, being mainly concentrated in the Qinling-Huaihe Line region of China and eastern Peninsular Malaysia. As global warming continues, the future suitable habitat for C. geophilum is projected to shift northward, leading to an expected expansion of the suitable area from 9.21% to 21.02%. This study provides a theoretical foundation for global conservation efforts and biogeographic understanding of C. geophilum, offering new insights into its distribution patterns and evolutionary trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yexu Zheng
- College of ForestryShandong Agricultural UniversityTai'anChina
- College of Grassland Science and TechnologyChina Agricultural UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Chao Yuan
- College of ForestryFujian Agriculture and Forestry UniversityFuzhouChina
| | - Norihisa Matsushita
- Graduate School of Agricultural and Life SciencesThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Chunlan Lian
- Asian Research Center for Bioresource and Environmental Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life SciencesThe University of TokyoNishitokyo‐shiTokyoJapan
| | - Qifang Geng
- College of ForestryShandong Agricultural UniversityTai'anChina
- Asian Research Center for Bioresource and Environmental Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life SciencesThe University of TokyoNishitokyo‐shiTokyoJapan
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Wei X, Xu D, Zhuo Z. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Leafhopper, Cicadella viridis in China through the MaxEnt Model. INSECTS 2023; 14:586. [PMID: 37504592 PMCID: PMC10380802 DOI: 10.3390/insects14070586] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2023] [Revised: 06/15/2023] [Accepted: 06/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
Cicadella viridis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is an omnivorous leafhopper that feeds on plant sap. It significantly reduces the yield of agricultural and forestry crops while feeding or ovipositing on the host plant. In recent years, the rapid expansion of C. viridis has posed a serious threat to agricultural and forestry crops. To study the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of the leafhopper, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software, combined with 253 geographic distribution records of the pest and 24 environmental variables, were used, for the first time, to predict the potential distribution of C. viridis in China under conditions of climatic change. The results showed that the currently suitable areas for C. viridis are 29.06-43° N, 65.25-85.15° E, and 93.45-128.85° E, with an estimated area of 11,231,423.79 km2, i.e., 11.66% of China. The Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, and the Shandong Peninsula are the main suitable areas. The potential distribution of the leafhopper for the high and medium suitability areas decreased under each climate scenario (except RCP8.5 in the 2090s). Several key variables that have the most significant effect on the distribution of C. viridis were identified, including the mean annual temperature (Bio1), the standard deviation of temperature seasonality (Bio4), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19). Our research provides important guidance for developing effective monitoring and pest control methods for C. viridis, given the predicted challenges of altered pest dynamics related to future climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinju Wei
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Danping Xu
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
| | - Zhihang Zhuo
- College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
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Wang Y, Shi J, Wu Y, Zhang W, Yang X, Lv H, Xia S, Zhao S, Tian J, Cui P, Xu J. Selection of Flagship Species and Their Use as Umbrellas in Bird Conservation: A Case Study in Lishui, Zhejiang Province, China. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:1825. [PMID: 37889725 PMCID: PMC10251992 DOI: 10.3390/ani13111825] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 05/27/2023] [Accepted: 05/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The concept of flagship species is widely used in conservation biology. Flagship birds play a key role in raising conservation funds, increasing awareness of biodiversity conservation, and maintaining ecosystem services. This study selected flagship bird species in Lishui, Zhejiang Province, China, and assessed their conservation effectiveness and ability to serve as umbrella species. A regional bird survey program from 2019-2022 recorded 361 bird species in Lishui. This study constructed a framework of flagship species selection based on social, ecological, economic, and cultural criteria. The analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight method (AHP-EM) was used to rank the score of 361 bird species, and the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the suitable distribution areas of these species. Finally, 10 species, which covered the distribution sites of all 361 bird species, were selected as the flagship species of Lishui. The distribution areas covered all the nature reserves and the priority areas of biodiversity of Lishui, in which these 10 species can also serve as umbrella species to protect local biodiversity. The methodology and ideas in this study could provide insights into the application of conservation concepts at the local level, as well as suggest possible recommendations for local governments to select flagship species for conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yifei Wang
- School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, 35 East Qinghua Road Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China;
| | - Jie Shi
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Biodiversity Conservation and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China; (J.S.); (Y.W.); (W.Z.); (X.Y.); (S.Z.); (J.T.)
| | - Yi Wu
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Biodiversity Conservation and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China; (J.S.); (Y.W.); (W.Z.); (X.Y.); (S.Z.); (J.T.)
| | - Wenwen Zhang
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Biodiversity Conservation and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China; (J.S.); (Y.W.); (W.Z.); (X.Y.); (S.Z.); (J.T.)
| | - Xiao Yang
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Biodiversity Conservation and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China; (J.S.); (Y.W.); (W.Z.); (X.Y.); (S.Z.); (J.T.)
| | - Huanxin Lv
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; (H.L.); (S.X.)
| | - Shaoxia Xia
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; (H.L.); (S.X.)
| | - Shengjun Zhao
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Biodiversity Conservation and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China; (J.S.); (Y.W.); (W.Z.); (X.Y.); (S.Z.); (J.T.)
| | - Jing Tian
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Biodiversity Conservation and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China; (J.S.); (Y.W.); (W.Z.); (X.Y.); (S.Z.); (J.T.)
| | - Peng Cui
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Biodiversity and Biosafety, Research Center for Biodiversity Conservation and Biosafety, Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China; (J.S.); (Y.W.); (W.Z.); (X.Y.); (S.Z.); (J.T.)
| | - Jiliang Xu
- School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, 35 East Qinghua Road Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China;
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Barnes PW, Robson TM, Zepp RG, Bornman JF, Jansen MAK, Ossola R, Wang QW, Robinson SA, Foereid B, Klekociuk AR, Martinez-Abaigar J, Hou WC, Mackenzie R, Paul ND. Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system. Photochem Photobiol Sci 2023; 22:1049-1091. [PMID: 36723799 PMCID: PMC9889965 DOI: 10.1007/s43630-023-00376-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.
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Affiliation(s)
- P W Barnes
- Biological Sciences and Environment Program, Loyola University New Orleans, New Orleans, USA.
| | - T M Robson
- Organismal & Evolutionary Biology (OEB), Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Viikki Plant Sciences Centre (ViPS), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
- National School of Forestry, University of Cumbria, Ambleside, UK.
| | - R G Zepp
- ORD/CEMM, US Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA, USA
| | - J F Bornman
- Food Futures Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia
| | | | - R Ossola
- Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - Q-W Wang
- Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shenyang, China
| | - S A Robinson
- Global Challenges Program & School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
| | - B Foereid
- Environment and Natural Resources, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway
| | - A R Klekociuk
- Antarctic Climate Program, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia
| | - J Martinez-Abaigar
- Faculty of Science and Technology, University of La Rioja, Logroño (La Rioja), Spain
| | - W-C Hou
- Department of Environmental Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan
| | - R Mackenzie
- Cape Horn International Center (CHIC), Puerto Williams, Chile
- Millennium Institute Biodiversity of Antarctic and Subantarctic Ecosystems (BASE), Santiago, Chile
| | - N D Paul
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
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Wang W, Zhao F, Wang Y, Huang X, Ye J. Seasonal differences in the spatial patterns of wildfire drivers and susceptibility in the southwest mountains of China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 869:161782. [PMID: 36702273 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161782] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires directly affect global ecosystem stability and severely threaten human life. The mountainous areas of Southwest China experience frequent wildfires. Mapping the susceptibility patterns and analyzing the drivers of wildfires are crucial for effective wildfire management, especially considering that the inclusion of seasonal dimensions will produce more dynamic results. Using Yunnan Province of China as a case study area, a method was attempted to distinguish dependable wildfires by season, while possible wildfire drivers were obtained and refined within seasons. The patterns of wildfire susceptibility in different seasons were modeled based on the Maxent and random forest models. Then, the spatial relationships between wildfire and potential drivers were analyzed integrating with GeoDetector to evaluate the variable importance of drivers and the marginal effect of drivers. The results showed that the two models effectively depicted each season's wildfire susceptibility. The susceptible wildfire areas in spring and winter are located throughout Yunnan Province, with anthropogenic factors being the most significant drivers. During the summer and autumn, wildfire risk areas are relatively concentrated, showing a trend of dominant drought-driven and humid conditions. The differences in wildfire drivers across seasons reflect the lagged effect of climate factors on wildfires, leading to significant discrepancies in the marginal effects of how seasonal drivers affect wildfires. The findings improve our understanding of the effects of the interseasonal variability of environmental variables on wildfires and promote the development of specific seasonal wildfire management strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenquan Wang
- School of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
| | - Fengjun Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
| | - Yanxia Wang
- School of Geography and Ecotourism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
| | - Xiaoyuan Huang
- School of Geography and Ecotourism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China
| | - Jiangxia Ye
- School of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China.
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40
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Chen W, Miao K, Guo K, Qian W, Sun W, Wang H, Chang Q, Hu C. Potential Geographic Range of the Endangered Reed Parrotbill Paradoxornis heudei under Climate Change. BIOLOGY 2023; 12:biology12040560. [PMID: 37106760 PMCID: PMC10135867 DOI: 10.3390/biology12040560] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2023] [Revised: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/03/2023] [Indexed: 04/08/2023]
Abstract
The phenomenon of global climate change can impact the geographic range and biodiversity, thereby heightening the vulnerability of rare species to extinction. The reed parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei David, 1872) is endemic to central and eastern China, it is mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain and the Northeast Plain. In this study, eight of ten algorithms of the species distribution model (SDM) were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. heudei under current and future climate scenarios and to analyze the possible related climate factors. After checking the collected data, 97 occurrence records of P. heudei were used. The relative contribution rate shows that among the selected climatic variables, temperature annual range (bio7), annual precipitation (bio12), and isothermality (bio3) were the principal climatic factors to limit the habitat suitability of P. heudei. The suitable habitat for P. heudei is primarily concentrated in the central–eastern and northeast plains of China, particularly in the eastern coastal region, spanning a mere area of 57,841 km2. The habitat suitability of P. heudei under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios was predicted to be different under future climatic conditions, but all of them had a larger range than the current one. The species distribution range could expand by more than 100% on average compared with the current range under the four scenarios in 2050, while it could contract by approximately 30% on average relative to the 2050 range in 2070 under different climate change scenarios. In the future, northeastern China may serve as a potential suitable habitat for P. heudei. The changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of P. heudei’s range are of utmost importance in identifying high-priority conservation regions and devising effective management strategies for its preservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wan Chen
- College of Environment and Ecology, Jiangsu Open University (The City Vocational College of Jiangsu), Nanjing 210036, China
| | - Keer Miao
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
| | - Kun Guo
- Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory for Water Environment and Marine Biological Resources Protection, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China
| | - Weiya Qian
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
| | - Wan Sun
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
| | - Hao Wang
- Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China
| | - Qing Chang
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
| | - Chaochao Hu
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
- Analytical and Testing Center, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
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41
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Liu T, Jiang Z, Wang W, Wang G, Song X, Xu A, Li C. Changes in habitat suitability and population size of the endangered Przewalski's gazelle. Glob Ecol Conserv 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/08/2023] Open
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42
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Su J, Liu W, Hu F, Miao P, Xing L, Hua Y. The Distribution Pattern and Species Richness of Scorpionflies (Mecoptera: Panorpidae). INSECTS 2023; 14:332. [PMID: 37103147 PMCID: PMC10146745 DOI: 10.3390/insects14040332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2023] [Revised: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
The uneven distribution of species diversity on earth, with mountainous regions housing half of the high species diversity areas, makes mountain ecosystems vital to biodiversity conservation. The Panorpidae are ecological indicators, ideal for studying the impact of climate change on potential insect distribution. This study examines the impact of environmental factors on the distribution of the Panorpidae and analyzes how their distribution has changed over three historical periods, the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Current. The MaxEnt model is used to predict the potential distribution area of Panorpidae based on global distribution data. The results show that precipitation and elevation are the primary factors affecting species richness, and the suitable areas for Panorpidae are distributed in southeastern North America, Europe, and southeastern Asia. Throughout the three historical periods, there was an initial increase followed by a decrease in the area of suitable habitats. During the LGM period, there was a maximum range of suitable habitats for cool-adapted insects, such as scorpionflies. Under the scenarios of global warming, the suitable habitats for Panorpidae would shrink, posing a challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. The study provides insights into the potential geographic range of Panorpidae and helps understand the impact of climate change on their distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Su
- College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
| | - Wanjing Liu
- College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
| | - Fangcheng Hu
- College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
| | - Panpan Miao
- College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
| | - Lianxi Xing
- College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
- Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Animal Conservation, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
- Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China (Northwest University), Ministry of Education, Xi’an 710069, China
| | - Yuan Hua
- College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
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43
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Zhang HT, Wang WT. Prediction of the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Species Meconopsis punicea Maxim under Future Climate Change Based on Four Species Distribution Models. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:1376. [PMID: 36987063 PMCID: PMC10056925 DOI: 10.3390/plants12061376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Revised: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change increases the extinction risk of species, and studying the impact of climate change on endangered species is of great significance to biodiversity conservation. In this study, the endangered plant Meconopsis punicea Maxim (M. punicea) was selected as the research object. Four species distribution models (SDMs): the generalized linear model, the generalized boosted regression tree model, random forest and flexible discriminant analysis were applied to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climates scenarios. Among them, two emission scenarios of sharing socio-economic pathways (SSPs; i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and two global circulation models (GCMs) were considered for future climate conditions. Our results showed that temperature seasonality, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the potential distribution of M. punicea. The prediction of the four SDMs consistently indicated that the current potential distribution area of M. punicea is concentrated between 29.02° N-39.06° N and 91.40° E-105.89° E. Under future climate change, the potential distribution of M. punicea will expand from the southeast to the northwest, and the expansion area under SSP5-8.5 would be wider than that under SSP2-4.5. In addition, there were significant differences in the potential distribution of M. punicea predicted by different SDMs, with slight differences caused by GCMs and emission scenarios. Our study suggests using agreement results from different SDMs as the basis for developing conservation strategies to improve reliability.
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Aidoo OF, Souza PGC, Silva RS, Júnior PAS, Picanço MC, Heve WK, Duker RQ, Ablormeti FK, Sétamou M, Borgemeister C. Modeling climate change impacts on potential global distribution of Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 864:160962. [PMID: 36565865 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2022] [Revised: 12/08/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The Asian citrus psyllid (ACP), Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae), is an efficient vector of "Candidatus Liberibacter" species, the causative agents implicated in citrus greening or huanglongbing (HLB). HLB is the most devastating citrus disease and has killed millions of citrus trees worldwide. Classical biological control using Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) against ACP has been successful in some regions. Climatic conditions are critical in determining suitable areas for the geographical distribution of T. radiata. However, paucity of information on climate change impacts on the global spread of T. radiata restricts international efforts to manage ACP with T. radiata. We investigated the potential global distribution of T. radiata using 317 native and non-native occurrence records and 20 environmental data sets (with correlation coefficients (|r| > 0.7)). Using the Maximum Entropy model, these data were analyzed for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two time periods (2030s and 2050s). We showed that habitat suitability for T. radiata occurred in all continents except Antarctica. However, the highly suitable areas for T. radiata were found in parts of the Americas, Asia, Africa and Oceania. The climate suitable areas would increase until the 2050s. The predictions showed that mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important environmental variables that influenced the distribution of T. radiata. The model reliably predicted habitat suitability for T. radiata, which can be adapted in classical biological control programs to effectively manage ACP in an environmentally friendly manner.
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Affiliation(s)
- Owusu F Aidoo
- Department of Biological, Physical and Mathematical Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
| | - Philipe G C Souza
- Department of Agronomy, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM), Diamantina, MG 39100-000, Brazil
| | - Ricardo S Silva
- Department of Agronomy, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM), Diamantina, MG 39100-000, Brazil.
| | - Paulo A S Júnior
- Department of Entomology, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Av. P. H. Rolfs, s/n, Viçosa, MG 36570-900, Brazil
| | - Marcelo C Picanço
- Department of Entomology, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Av. P. H. Rolfs, s/n, Viçosa, MG 36570-900, Brazil
| | - William K Heve
- Department of Biological, Physical and Mathematical Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
| | - Rahmat Q Duker
- Department of Biological, Physical and Mathematical Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, PMB, Somanya, E/R, Ghana
| | - Fred K Ablormeti
- Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), P. O. Box 245, Sekondi, W/R, Ghana
| | - Mamoudou Sétamou
- Citrus Center, Texas A & M University-Kingsville, 312 N. International Blvd., Weslaco, TX 78599, USA
| | - Christian Borgemeister
- Centre for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany
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McNichol BH, Russo SE. Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:1248. [PMID: 36986935 PMCID: PMC10056461 DOI: 10.3390/plants12061248] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 02/18/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bailey H. McNichol
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 1101 T Street, 402 Manter Hall, Lincoln, NE 68588-0118, USA;
| | - Sabrina E. Russo
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 1101 T Street, 402 Manter Hall, Lincoln, NE 68588-0118, USA;
- Center for Plant Science Innovation, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 1901 Vine Street, N300 Beadle Center, Lincoln, NE 68588-0118, USA
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46
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Tong Y, Jiang H, Xu N, Wang Z, Xiong Y, Yin J, Huang J, Chen Y, Jiang Q, Zhou Y. Global Distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Impact Factors. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4701. [PMID: 36981610 PMCID: PMC10048298 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20064701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Revised: 03/04/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and has a wide global distribution. However, the current and future geographic distribution maps of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in global are still incomplete. Our study aims to predict the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in current and future conditions to provide a guideline for the formation and implementation of vector control strategies all over the world. We collected and screened the information on the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus by searching the literature and online databases and used ten algorithms to investigate its global distribution and impact factors. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus had been detected in 41 countries from 5 continents. The final ensemble model (TSS = 0.864 and AUC = 0.982) indicated that human footprint was the most important factor for the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The tropics and subtropics, including southeastern Asia, Central Africa, southeastern North America and eastern South America, showed high habitat suitability for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is predicted to have a wider distribution in all the continents, especially in Western Europe and South America in the future under two extreme emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6). Targeted strategies for the control and prevention of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus should be further strengthened.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yixin Tong
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Honglin Jiang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Ning Xu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Zhengzhong Wang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Ying Xiong
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Jiangfan Yin
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Junhui Huang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yue Chen
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, ON K1G 5Z3, Canada
| | - Qingwu Jiang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yibiao Zhou
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
- Center for Tropical Disease Research, Fudan University, Building 8, 130 Dong’an Road, Shanghai 200032, China
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Zhao K, Li X, Yang J, Huang Z, Li C, Yao L, Tan Z, Wu X, Huang S, Yuan Y, Hong Z, Cai Q, Chen Z, Zhang L. Effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and potential distribution areas of 35 Millettia Species in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:18535-18545. [PMID: 36215005 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-23515-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has an extremely important impact on the geographic distribution of plants. The genus Millettia is an important plant resource in China and is widely used in medicine and ornamental industries. Due to the continuous changes of climate and the development and utilization of plant resources of the genus Millettia, it is of great significance to systematically investigate the geographic distribution of plants of the Millettia and their potential distribution under climate change. DIVA-GIS software was used to analyze 3492 plant specimens of 35 species of genus Millettia in the herbarium, and the ecological geographic distribution and richness of Millettia were analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the current and potential distribution in the future. The results show that the genus Millettia is distributed in 30 provinces in China, among which Yunnan and Guangdong provinces are the most distributed. Our model determines that precipitation in the driest month and annual temperature range are the most important bioclimatic variables. Future climate changes will increase the suitable habitat area of M. congestiflora by 16.75%, but other cliff beans Suitable habitats for vines will decrease significantly: M. cinereal by 47.66%, M. oosperma by 39.16%, M. pulchra by 36.04%, M. oraria by - 29.32%, M. nitida by 22.88%, M. dielsiana by 22.72%, M. sericosema by 19.53%, M. championii by 7.77%, M. pachycarpa by 7.72%, M. speciose by 2.05%, M. reticulata by 1.32%. Therefore, targeted measures should be taken to protect and develop these precious plant resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Zhao
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Xuetong Li
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Jingru Yang
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Zebin Huang
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Chunlian Li
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Lewen Yao
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Zekai Tan
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Xianyi Wu
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Shiyuan Huang
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Yanghe Yuan
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Zhengyi Hong
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Qiuyang Cai
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Zhuoyu Chen
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Lanyue Zhang
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Resources Biorefinery, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
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Projected Effects of Climate Change on Species Range of Pantala flavescens, a Wandering Glider Dragonfly. BIOLOGY 2023; 12:biology12020226. [PMID: 36829503 PMCID: PMC9953429 DOI: 10.3390/biology12020226] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Dragonflies are sensitive to climate change due to their special habitat in aquatic and terrestrial environments, especially Pantala flavescens, which have extraordinary migratory abilities in response to climate change on spatio-temporal scales. At present, there are major gaps in the documentation of insects and the effects of climatic changes on the habitat and species it supports. In this study, we model the global distribution of a wandering glider dragonfly, P. flavescens, and detected the important environmental factors shaping its range, as well as habitat shifts under historical and future warming scenarios. The results showed a global map of species ranges of P. flavescens currently, including southern North America, most of South America, south-central Africa, most of Europe, South, East and Southeast Asia, and northern Oceania, in total, ca. 6581.667 × 104 km2. BIO5 (the max temperature of warmest month) and BIO13 (the precipitation of wettest month) greatly explained its species ranges. The historic refugia were identified around the Great Lakes in the north-central United States. Future warming will increase the total area of suitable habitat and shift the type of suitable habitat compared to the current distribution. The habitat suitability of P. flavescens decreased with elevation, global warming forced it to expand to higher elevations, and the habitat suitability of P. flavescens around the equator increased with global warming. Overall, our study provides a global dynamic pattern of suitable habitats for P. flavescens from the perspective of climate change, and provides a useful reference for biodiversity research and biological conservation.
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Wang J, Tabeta S. MaxEnt modeling to show patterns of coastal habitats of reef-associated fish in the South and East China Seas. Front Ecol Evol 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2023.1027614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Reef-associated fish are a crucial source of protein for coastal residents and play an important role in the economy and ecology of marine ecosystems. However, human activities and climate change have led to the degradation of their habitats in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS). This study models the potential habitats of reef-associated fish in the SCS and ECS between 1993 and 2019 using high-spatial-resolution environmental factors and fish presence data, estimates the importance of environmental factors on habitat distribution and identifies seasonal variation and distribution shifts over recent decades, the results show moderate and highly suitable areas for reef-associated fish in the region total 360,000 km2. Sea body temperature, chlorophyll-α concentration, and seawater salinity are crucial for determining the distribution of reef-associated fish. Moreover, reef-associated fish are also sensitive to seawater temperature in winter. Suitable areas for reef-associated fish near coastlines have decreased due to environmental changes within the region. The findings of this study offer valuable resource for developing fishery management and conservation strategies for this important functional group.
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50
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Predicting habitat suitability of Litsea glutinosa: a declining tree species, under the current and future climate change scenarios in India. LANDSCAPE AND ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING 2023. [DOI: 10.1007/s11355-023-00537-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
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