How has carbon storage changed in the Yili-Tianshan region over the past three decades and into the future? What has driven it to change?

Predicting future land use changes and assessing carbon storage remain challenging. Nowadays, how nature and socioeconomics drive changes in carbon storage is a hot topic in research. In this study, through the projection of land use type and the integration of the PLUS, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), and Geodetector models, we constructed a framework for assessing carbon storage in different land use scenarios. Utilizing this framework, it is possible to project land use change and estimate carbon storage based on different development scenarios. We applied the framework to the Yili Tianshan region and identified the main driving forces for carbon storage change. Further, we estimated the carbon storage in the Yili Tianshan region in 2035 under four scenarios (RE, NE, EP, and CLP). The results showed the following: 1) Between 1990 and 2020, there was an increase in the forest area and water bodies in the Yili-Tianshan region, mainly from bare land. 2) As shown on the time scale, carbon storage increases in the Yili-Tianshan region with a W-shaped fluctuation by converting grasslands and bare land into forests. On a spatial scale, the carbon storage was lower in the center and higher on both sides in the Yili-Tianshan region. 3) In 2035- RE, 2035-ND, and 2035-EP scenarios, the carbon storage was increased by 4.30 Tg, 6.67 Tg, and 12.08 Tg; in the 2035-CLP scenario, it was decreased by 14.63 Tg. The Yili-Tianshan region experienced a notable rise in carbon storage under the 2035-EP scenario compared to the other three scenarios. 4) Soil type played a significant role in the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Yili-Tianshan (q value 0.5958), followed by population density (0.5394). The changes in carbon storage in the Yili-Tianshan region are the result of synergistic effects of multiple factors, in which the soil type∩soil erosion intensity are the most important. This research could provide a reference method for improving regional carbon storage.

Heterogeneous and interactive effects of payments for ecosystem services on household income across giant panda nature reserves

Numerous Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs have been implemented simultaneously around the world but their outcomes in the literature are not consistent and their interactive effects remain understudied. The Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and Grain to Green Program (GTGP) are two largest PES programs in the world, and many studies have evaluated their effects on household income. However, the identified effects often varied across different studies and the factors explaining this variation are poorly understood. This study used linear regression and geographic detector analysis, based on questionnaire survey data from 14 giant panda natural reserves (NRs) in southwestern China, to evaluate the effects of the NFCP and GTGP on household income and the factors which moderate these effects. The results revealed that the effects of two PES programs on household income were spatially heterogeneous and enhanced by each other and livelihood activities, suggesting a synergistic interaction between policies and livelihood activities, particularly tourism. This study also found that livelihoods activities (e.g., labor migration and tourism), household capital (i.e., house area and farmland area) and demographic factors (i.e., number of labor and non-labor members), exhibit spatial heterogeneity in their effects on household income across NRs. These findings underscore the importance of considering local socioeconomic conditions and the interaction between policy and socio-economic conditions in PES program design to achieve desired outcomes, providing insights for policymakers and practitioners worldwide.

Health Impacts of Fine Particulate Matter Shift Due to Urbanization in China

Rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in diverse anthropogenic activities and emissions between urban and non-urban regions, leading to varying levels of exposure to air pollutants and associated health risks. However, endeavors to mitigate air pollution and health benefits have displayed considerable heterogeneity across different regions. Therefore, comprehending the changes in air pollutant concentrations and health impacts within an urbanization context is imperative for promoting environmental equity. This paper uses gross domestic product (GDP)- and population-weighted methods to distinguish anthropogenic emissions from urban and non-urban areas in China and quantified their contributions to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in 2010 and 2019. Anthropogenic emissions from urban and non-urban (outside urban) regions decreased by 26 and 44% from 2010 to 2019, respectively, resulting in 31 and 28% reductions of PM2.5 in China. PM2.5-related premature mortality attributed to non-urban and urban anthropogenic emission decreases by 8%. Non-urban anthropogenic activities are the main contributor to PM2.5 (56% in 2010 and 2019) and its associated premature mortality (59%), which also predominantly affects non-urban premature mortality (37-42% in 2010-2019). Population changes increase the proportion of premature mortality in urban populations (7-19%) from 2010 to 2019. This study emphasizes the shift of affected populations due to urbanization and population changes.

The impact of China's urbanization on ecosystem service value from the perspective of gross ecosystem product: a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is an aggregate measure of the monetary value of final ecosystem services, or the direct benefits that people derive from nature. GEP can provide decision makers with clear and competing evidence of the monetary value of ecosystem services. However, the relationship between GEP and urbanization has not been clarified which is not conducive to the decision-making role of GEP in the process of urban sustainable development. This work focused on the 'Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei' (BTH) urban agglomeration as a case study of the dynamics of ecological production amidst rapid economic and urban development, and coupled a spatial-temporal analysis of regional ecological change based on GIS (Geographic Information System) with economic valuation methods using official statistics and survey data. Results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the GEP increased from 1.55 trillion to 2.36 trillion, the value of provisioning services and cultural services increased from 0.51 to 0.71 trillion to 0.10-0.65 trillion. The value of regulation services showed an upward and downward trend (0.94-1.03-0.98) due to the rapid economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. There were obvious spatial differences in the distribution of the GEP, in which Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Cangzhou GEP accounted for 15%, 14%, 16% and 11%, respectively. During 2000-2020, there is a significant correlation between urbanization index (UI) and GEP in BTH, but the correlation between GEP and UI shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The correlation between UI and EPS and ERS gradually decreases, and the impact of UI on ETS shows a significant positive correlation. In the future, it can be foreseen that urbanization will suppress the increase of GEP.

Exposure of water purification deficit network in response to nitrogen application intensity

Ecosystem services are strongly responsive to changes in land use intensity, especially for the service of water purification, which is highly sensitive to water pollutant emission. Increased nitrogen (N) application to cropland has potential impacts on the supply and demand for water purification through changes in land use intensity. However, there has been a lack of research focusing on the impacts of cropland N application on population exposure to water purification deficit and their cross-regional delivery network. Taking the Dongting Lake (DTL) Basin as an example, this study explored the spatial pattern of N exposure in the DTL Basin from 1990 to 2015 by integrating water purification deficit and population density. Changes in potential N exposure in 2050 were simulated based on population projection data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-5). N delivery pathways in the DTL Basin were clarified by constructing the N delivery network. The results showed that N exposure increased significantly with increasing N application in DTL Basin. The DTL surrounding area and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River Basin had high increases of N exposure (50.2 % and 71.6 %) and high increases in N exposure due to increases in N application per unit (N influence coefficients exceeding 0.5). The lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River Basin with the highest population density had the smallest decrease in N exposure (1.4 %-11.1 %) in the SSP1-5 scenarios. During 1990-2015, the increase of N export to the DTL surrounding area was higher in the lower reach sub-basins of DTL Basin. N application had a stronger impact on N delivery processes in the lower reaches of DTL Basin. Managers should distribute N applications to basins with high N retention and low N export to the DTL surrounding area. This study confirmed the strong response of water purification deficit and its population exposure to N application, and provided decision-making guidelines for water quality enhancement in DTL Basin from a spatial planning perspective.

Spatiotemporal drivers of Nature's contributions to people: A county-level study

Nature's contributions to people (NCP) encompass both the beneficial and detrimental effects of living nature on human quality of life, including regulatory, material, and non-material contributions. Globally, vital NCPs have been deteriorating, accelerated by changes in both natural and anthropogenic drivers over recent decades. Despite the often inevitable trade-offs between NCPs due to their spatially and temporally uneven distributions, few studies have quantitatively assessed the impacts of different drivers on the spatial and temporal changes in multiple NCPs and their interrelationships. Here we evaluate the effects of precipitation, temperature, population, gross domestic product, vegetation restoration, and urban expansion on four key regulatory NCPs-habitat maintenance, climate regulation, water quantity regulation, and soil protection-in Nei Mongol at the county level. We observe increasing trends in climate regulation and soil protection from 2000 to 2019, contrasted with declining trends in habitat maintenance and water quantity regulation. We have identified the dominant positive and negative drivers influencing each NCP across individual counties, finding that natural drivers predominantly overpowered anthropogenic drivers. Furthermore, we discover significant spatial disparities in the trade-off or synergy relationships between NCPs across the counties. Our findings illustrate how the impacts of various drivers on NCPs and their interrelationships can be quantitatively evaluated, offering significant potential for application in various spatial scales. With an understanding of trade-offs and scale effects, these insights are expected to support and inform policymaking at both county and provincial levels.

Identification of potential suitable areas and conservation priority areas for representative wild animals in the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains

Species geographic distribution and conservation priority areas are important bases for in situ biodiversity conservation and conservation decision-making. In view of the urgency of endangered species protection, eight representative endangered species in the typical forest ecosystem of the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains were studied. Based on 1127 occurrence points and environmental data collected from 2016 to 2021, used BIOMOD2 and Zonation to reconstruct the potential distribution area and identify conservation priority areas of eight species (Tetrao parvirostris, T. tetrix, Gulo gulo, Alces alces, Martes zibellina, Moschus moschiferus, Lynx lynx, Lutra lutra). The results showed potential distribution areas for almost all species concentrated in the northern part of the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) and the central part of the Lesser Khingan Mountains (LKM). The potential distribution areas of each species were as follows: black-billed capercaillie, 102,623 km2; black grouse, 162,678 km2; wolverine, 63,410 km2; moose, 140,287 km2; sable, 112,254 km2; Siberian musk deer, 104,787 km2; lynx, 139,912 km2; and Eurasian otter, 49,386 km2. Conservation priority areas (CPAs) clustered in the north GKM and central LKM and totaled 220,801 km2, and only 16.94% of the CPAs were currently protected by nature reserves. We suggest that the Chinese government accelerate the integration of existing protected areas in the northern GKM and establish a larger GKM National Park based on cost-effective multi-species protection.

Breaking the poverty trap in an ecologically fragile region through ecological engineering: A close-up look at long-term changes in ecosystem services

Ecological vulnerability and poverty are interrelated and must be addressed together. The resolution of this issue will help us to meet the challenges during the process of implementing concrete actions for realizing the 2030 UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) can enhance ecosystem services (ESs) while providing policy support for improving people's livelihoods. However, processes and mechanisms of ERPs on the ecological environment and socioeconomic development in poverty-stricken and ecologically fragile areas have rarely been studied. To address these issues, we conducted a comparative analysis on the changes of land use and land cover (LULC), ecosystem services (ESs), and socioeconomic development in Bijie City, a karst rocky desertification area in southwest China, before and after the implementation of ERPs in 2000, as well as the complex relationship between these factors. ERPs have affected LULCs, ESs, socioeconomics, and poverty reduction significantly since 2000. Specifically, the total ecosystem service value (ESV) in the study area has increased by more than 3 times in the past 30 years, with the ESV of tourism services and carbon storage increasing the most, from CNY 0.001 and 337.07 billion in 1990 to CNY 11.07 and 108.97 billion in 2019, respectively. The correlation between ESs is mainly synergistic, while the tradeoff between carbon storage and water yield is in a fluctuating upward trend. LULC conversion of cropland to green, and cropland to water, wetland and shrubs has positive effects on carbon storage and water yield, respectively. During study period, GDP, urbanization increased by over 70 times, 5 times, respectively, whereas poverty population, poverty incidence, and employment rate of various sectors (i.e., agriculture, forest, animal, and fishery, or AFAF) decreased by 96.4%, 97.7%, and 18.24%, respectively. Our findings emphasized that ERPs can effectively help poor and ecologically fragile areas to get out of the poverty trap and achieve the "win-win" goals of ecological and socio-economic sustainable development. These results have profound environmental management references to China and other developing countries around the world in realizing ecological restoration, poverty reduction, and the SDGs.

Geospatial mapping of carbon estimates for forested areas using the InVEST model and Sentinel-2: A case study in Galicia (NW Spain)

CO2 emissions have increased exponentially in recent years, so measuring and quantifying carbon sequestration is a step towards sustainable forest management and combating climate change. The overall goal of this study is to develop an accurate model for estimating carbon storage and sequestration for forest areas of the Atlantic Biogeographic Region. Specifically, the modelling and field sampling are carried out in the municipality of Baiona (Galicia, NW Spain), which was selected as a representative biome of this region. The methodology consists of carrying out two object-based image analysis (OBIA) classifications in spring and autumn to observe possible stocks of seasonal differences. Two carbon storage and sequestration models are built up (model 1 and model 2): model 1 for forest areas only and model 2 including all other land cover in the study area. Sentinel-2 geospatial data for 2021, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) tools and geographic information systems (GIS) are used. A Kappa index of 0.92 is obtained for both classifications, thus ruling out any notable seasonal differences in the images used. The results from both models indicate that it is land covers associated with forest uses which store the most carbon in the study area, accounting for >50 % more than the other land covers. It is concluded that the methodology and data used are very useful for quantifying ecosystem services, which will help the governance of the region by implementing measures to mitigate some of the effects of climate change and help to create silvicultural models for the sustainable management of the Atlantic Biogeographic Region.

Multilevel ecological compensation policy design based on ecosystem service flow: A case study of carbon sequestration services in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ecological compensation is an effective means to reconcile the imbalance of eco-social development between regions and promote enthusiasm for ecological environmental protection. There is some conformity between the theory of ecosystem service flow and ecological compensation, which provides new technical support for the formulation of ecological compensation policy. This study took the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research area, adopted the breaking point model to obtain the spatial characteristics of carbon sequestration flow, and formulated a multilevel ecological compensation policy with Tibet as the design object. The results showed that most of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a carbon sequestration surplus; the central and eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western Sichuan are successively carbon sequestration supply areas; the Chengdu Plain and Xinjiang were listed as carbon sequestration benefit areas; and the carbon sequestration tended to flow more closely between supply and benefit areas in proximity to each other. Nyingchi, Chamdo, Naqu and Shannan in Tibet need to receive a total ecological compensation of 393.21 million USD, of which 93.71 % is from the national level, 6.02 % is from carbon sequestration benefit areas in other provinces; furthermore, Lhasa and Shigatse in Tibet need to provide the remaining ecological compensation. This study offers innovations for the formulation of ecological compensation policies and provide a new theory for ecological environment management.

Vegetation cover dynamics and its constraint effect on ecosystem services on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under ecological restoration projects

Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) are implemented worldwide to restore degraded ecosystems and promote ecosystem sustainability. In recent years, a series of ERPs have been implemented to enhance vegetation cover in the unique alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, the current assessment of the ecological benefits of ERPs is relatively single, and the scale and extent of future ecological restoration project implementation cannot be determined. We quantified trends in normalized vegetation index (NDVI) since the implementation of ERPs. Changes in four major ecosystem services were assessed before and after ERPs implementation, including wind erosion protection, soil retention, water yield, and net primary productivity (NPP). The relationship between NDVI and ecosystem services was further explored using a constraint line approach to identify NDVI as a threshold reference for ERPs implementation. The results showed that: (1) since the implementation of ERPs, 21.80% of the regional NDVI of the QTP has increased significantly. (2) After the implementation of ERPs, the average total ecosystem services index (TES) increased from 0.269 in 2000 to 0.285 in 2020. The average soil retention and water yield increased but the NPP and sandstorm prevention decreased slightly. (3) NDVI had no significant constraint effect on soil retention and NPP, but there was a significant constraint effect on wind erosion prevention and water yield. (4) The constraint line of NDVI on TES was S-shaped. After the implementation of ERPs, the TES gradually reached a threshold value when NDVI was 0.65-0.75. Our findings identify significant contributions of ERPs and thresholds for the constraining effects of vegetation cover on ecosystem services, which can inform sustainable ERPs for governments.

A meta-analysis reveals increases in soil organic carbon following the restoration and recovery of croplands in Southwest China

In China, the Grain for Green Program (GGP) is an ambitious project to convert croplands into natural vegetation, but exactly how changes in vegetation translate into changes in soil organic carbon remains less clear. Here we conducted a meta-analysis using 734 observations to explore the effects of land recovery on soil organic carbon and nutrients in four provinces in Southwest China. Following GGP, the soil organic carbon content (SOCc) and soil organic carbon stock (SOCs) increased by 33.73% and 22.39%, respectively, compared with the surrounding croplands. Similarly, soil nitrogen increased, while phosphorus decreased. Outcomes were heterogeneous, but depended on variations in soil and environmental characteristics. Both the regional land use and cover change indicated by the landscape type transfer matrix and net primary production from 2000 to 2020 further confirmed that the GGP promoted the forest area and regional mean net primary production. Our findings suggest that the GGP could enhance soil and vegetation carbon sequestration in Southwest China and help to develop a carbon-neutral strategy.

Spatio-temporal characteristics and driving mechanism of land degradation sensitivity in Northwest China

Northwest China has been experiencing severe land degradation for a long time due to various natural and social elements. Evaluating and analyzing the process of occurrence and driving mechanism of land degradation sensitivity in this area is crucial for enhancing the local ecological environment. In this study, 18 social and environmental elements were used to construct a land degradation sensitivity index (LDSI) evaluation system in the area from vegetation, climate, management, soil, and geomorphology five factors. The spatio-temporal characteristics of LDSI in Northwest China from 2000 to 2020 were evaluated on the basis of analyzing the developmental changes of each factor. Correlation analysis and multiscale geographical weighting regression (MGWR) were used to reveal the driving mechanism of land degradation sensitivity. The results indicated a high level of land degradation sensitivity in Northwest China, with >66 % of the area (190.96 × 104 km2) in the critical sensitive class from 2000 to 2020. But the land degradation sensitivity decreased in 18.52 % of the area (53.58 × 104 km2) from 2000 to 2020, the overall trend was weakening. The spatial distribution mainly showed stronger sensitivity in the northwest and weaker sensitivity in the southeast. By exploring the driving mechanism of land degradation sensitivity, it was found that vegetation and climate showed a strong correlation, with a correlation coefficient >0.8. Drought resistance played a strong role in the dynamic process of land degradation. The basic dynamic elements showed some spatial variability in land degradation in different regions. This study is of significance for land degradation prevention and sustainable development in Northwest China.

Exploring watershed ecological risk bundles based on ecosystem services: A case study of Shanxi Province, China

Humans are having an increasingly profound impact on the environment along with the advent of the Anthropocene. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) as a method to quantify ecological problems can provide support for decision-makers, and it is one of key issues to integrate ecosystem services into ERA. In this study, an ERA framework was proposed under the loss-probability paradigm from the perspective of ecosystem services risk bundles. The results showed that initiatives aimed at ecological protection in Shanxi Province had been effective, the number of watersheds with low-risk bundles increased significantly (from 16.09% to 34.49%) and the watersheds basically overlapped with key forestation areas. However, the effects of forestation activities may no longer be as significant as they once were, as the relationship between forestation and water supply was becoming increasingly contradictory. Meanwhile, the conflict between urban expansion and natural ecosystem protection was intensifying, habitat degradation risks were gradually polarized, and the risk bundles dominated by high carbon emission and habitat degradation were increasing significantly (from 15.88% to 33.54%). Strengthening the construction of urban green space and controlling the expansion of human activities may be the next focus of ecological conservation in Shanxi Province. This study enriched the ERA framework with an ecosystem services risk bundle approach.

The feedback of greening on local hydrothermal conditions in Northern China

Northern China has experienced a significant increase in vegetation cover over the past few decades. It lacks a comprehensive understanding of how greening impacts local hydrothermal conditions. To address this issue, in our study, the RegCM-CLM45 model was used to conduct a thorough assessment of the impacts of greening on temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), precipitation, and soil moisture. The findings revealed that the local climatic effects of greening varied across different drought gradients based on the aridity index (AI). In drier regions with AI<0.3, the increased energy induced by greening tended to dissipate as sensible heat, exacerbating both warming and drought conditions. Conversely, in wetter regions with AI>0.3, a greater proportion of energy was lost through evapotranspiration, attenuating warming. Additionally, greening enhanced precipitation and soil moisture in drier regions and moderated their decline in wetter regions. Significantly, our research emphasized the effectiveness of grassland expansion and conservation as prime strategies for ecological restoration, particularly in drylands, where they could effectively alleviate soil drought. Given the diverse responses of different land cover transformations to local hydrothermal conditions in drylands, there is an urgent need to address potential adverse effects arising from inappropriate ecological restoration strategies and to develop an optimal restoration framework for the future.

High resolution spatiotemporal modeling of long term anthropogenic nutrient discharge in China

High-resolution integration of large-scale and long-term anthropogenic nutrient discharge data is crucial for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of pollution and identifying intervention points for pollution mitigation. Here, we establish the MEANS-ST1.0 dataset, which has a high spatiotemporal resolution and encompasses anthropogenic nutrient discharge data collected in China from 1980 to 2020. The dataset includes five components, namely, urban residential, rural residential, industrial, crop farming, and livestock farming, with a spatial resolution of 1 km and a temporal resolution of monthly. The data are available in three formats, namely, GeoTIFF, NetCDF and Excel, catering to GIS users, researchers and policymakers in various application scenarios, such as visualization and modelling. Additionally, rigorous quality control was performed on the dataset, and its reliability was confirmed through cross-scale validation and literature comparisons at the national and regional levels. These data offer valuable insights for further modelling the interactions between humans and the environment and the construction of a digital Earth.

Long-Term Effects of Ecological Restoration Projects on Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Interactions: A Case Study of Hainan Tropical Forest Park in China

Ecological restoration projects aim to comprehensively intervene in damaged or deteriorating ecosystems, restore them, improve the provision of ecosystem services, and achieve harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. Implementing ecological restoration projects leads to continuous changes in land use/land cover. Studying the long-term changes in land use/land cover and their impacts on ecosystem services, as well as the trade-off and synergy between these services, helps evaluate the long-term effectiveness of ecological restoration projects in restoring ecosystems. Therefore, this study analyzes the land use/land cover, and ecosystem services of the Hainan Tropical Forest Park in China to address this. Since 2000, the area has undergone multiple ecological restoration projects, divided roughly into two stages: 2003-2013 and 2013-2021. The InVEST model is used to quantify three essential ecosystem services in mountainous regions (water yield, carbon storage, and soil conservation), and redundancy analysis identifies the primary driving factors influencing their changes. We conducted spatial autocorrelation analysis to examine the interplay among ecosystem services under long-term land use/land cover change. The results indicate a decrease in the total supply of water yield (-5.14%) and carbon storage (-3.21%) in the first phase. However, the second phase shows an improvement in ecosystem services, with an increase in the total supply of water yield (11.45%), carbon storage (27.58%), and soil conservation (21.95%). The redundancy analysis results reveal that land use/land cover are the primary driving factors influencing the changes in ecosystem services. Furthermore, there is a shift in the trade-off and synergy between ecosystem services at different stages, with significant differences in spatial distribution. The findings of this study provide more spatially targeted suggestions for the restoration and management of tropical montane rainforests in the future.

Sand fixation and human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau for ecological conservation and sustainable development

The sand fixation ecosystem services and human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) play a crucial role in local sustainable development and ecosystem health, with significant implications for surrounding regions and the global ecological environment. We employed an improved integrated wind erosion modeling system (IWEMS) model for the QTP to simulate sand fixation quantities under the unique low temperature and low pressure conditions prevalent on the plateau. Using the human footprint index (HFI), the intensity of human activities on the plateau was quantified. Additionally, an econometric model was constructed to analyze the impacts of the natural factors, the HFI, and policy factors on the sand fixation capacity. The results revealed that the average sand fixation quantity was 1368.0 t/km2/a, with a standard deviation of 1725.4 t/km2/a, and the highest value during the study period occurred in 2003. The average value of the HFI for 2020 was 6.69 with a standard deviation of 6.61, and the HFI exhibited a continuous growth trend from 2000 to 2020. Despite this growth, the average human activity intensity remained at a low level, with over 50 % of the area having an index value of <4.84. Overall, a strong negative correlation was observed between the sand fixation ecological capacity and the HFI on the QTP. However, extensive regions exhibited high values or low values for both indicators. The sand fixation capacity on the QTP is influenced by both natural and human factors. In light of these findings, suggestions are made for optimizing protected area design, rational control of human activity scales, and targeted human activity aggregation within certain regions as part of ecological conservation strategies. This study has implications for assessing sand fixation ecological functions in high-altitude regions and enhancing sand fixation capacity within the region, providing valuable practical guidance.

Understanding ecological restoration potential: The role of water resources and slope gradient limits

Ecological restoration is one of the most feasible ways to mitigate climate change and conserve ecosystems. However, the scope, intensity, effectiveness, and future potential of ecological restoration are restricted by unfavorable environmental conditions, especially limited water resources and complex topography. This paper proposes an assessment framework of ecological restoration potential under the coupled limits of water resources and slope gradient to quantitatively assess ecological restoration potential (ERP) under these two limiting factors. Results indicate that the current vegetation plantation in 20%, 0.19% and 32% areas of China's 31 provinces are larger, equal, and lower than the vegetation threshold permitted by local water resources respectively, which represents about 0.299 billion ha potential for additional restoration area. The ecological restoration potential under the integrated water resources and slope gradient constraints is 0.4 Pg C, less than half (47%) of the potential under the single limit of water resources (0.856 Pg C). However, this potential and China's existing carbon sink capacity related to terrestrial ecosystems is estimated to offset up to 8% of its current carbon dioxide emissions. Ecological restoration programs in areas with slope >5° will require additional economic investment to support Soil and Water Conservation programs, estimated to average about 212 trillion yuan. Succinctly, it is critical to integrate field investigations, process-based assessments and landscape design for sustainable ecological restoration. This work can provide techniques support for quantitative measurement of ecological restoration potential considering multiple limiting factors and guidance for sustainable implementation of ecological restoration programs.

Exploring the supply and demand imbalance of carbon and carbon-related ecosystem services for dual‑carbon goal ecological management in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt

The measurement of carbon and carbon-related ecosystem services (CCESs) has garnered considerable global attention, primarily due to dual‑carbon goals, which are crucial for the rational allocating of ecosystem service (ES) resources and the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sinks. This study developed a novel research framework on CCESs to quantitatively measure carbon storage (CS), food production (FS), habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC), and water yield (WY), and examined the spatiotemporal patterns of the supply-demand and trade-off/synergy processes related to CCESs in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB). The findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the supply-demand of the CCESs generally increased, except for carbon storage and food demand. Overall, the supply level of the CCESs exceeds the demand level, with a median ratio of supply and demand ratio (ESDR) of 1.13. (2) During the study period, the synergy relationship of the CCESs is mainly determined by the supply side of the CS-HQ and CS-SC, while on the demand side, it is determined by the CD- FD. And the ESDR of all C-related ecosystem services showed a significant synergy strengthening with CS in the HREEB. (3) Spatially, "high-low" spatial matching of the ESDR decreased, suggesting a gradual reduction in the spatial mismatch of CCESs. (4) We identified seven ecological functional zones and proposed corresponding strategies for promoting ecological management. Our research emphasized the spatiotemporal patterns of supply and demand imbalance in CCESs and the spatial optimization paths of trade-offs/synergies, providing valuable insights for achieving regional dual‑carbon goals.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and socio-ecological determinants of ecosystem service interplays in Shandong Province's coastal region (2000-2020): Implications for environmental protection and sustainable ecosystem management

The sustainable management of multiple concurrent ecosystem services (ESs) requires a comprehensive understanding of the interconnections between various ESs. In this study, we develop spatial maps for six distinct ESs using a variety of models, and we quantify their trade-offs, synergies, and bundling patterns through spatial mapping and statistical methodologies. We further delve into the antagonistic and synergistic dynamics between different ESs within each Ecosystem Service Bundle (ESB), and employ GeoDetector to pinpoint the key drivers of each ES. Our findings reveal that: (1) The spatial distributions of ESs are heterogeneous, with most ESs exhibiting a downward trend except for GP and SC, which are on the rise. CS shows positive correlations with all other five ES indicators. HQ exhibits positive correlations with SC and RS, whereas negative correlations are observed between HQ-GP and WC-RS. Six ES pairs demonstrate a decline in synergistic relationships, but an increase in trade-off relationships. (2) We distinguish six types of ESBs, each differing in their combination and extent of ES provision. The trade-offs and synergies within these distinct ESBs display both commonalities and differences. In certain ESBs, supply services display synergistic relationships with other ESs. We leverage ES bundles as the foundation for studying spatial planning zoning, revealing a diversity in the interactions between different ES pairs and the driving factors of ES. Therefore, we establish the theoretical basis for formulating spatial planning on the interrelationships and drivers of ES under spatial and temporal changes. We anticipate that our findings will offer valuable scientific insight for the development of future ecological conservation and spatial planning strategies in the region.

Exploring the interrelations and driving factors among typical ecosystem services in the Yangtze river economic Belt, China

Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) and their drivers is crucial for managers to develop significant scientific policies that further sustainable development. We used the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to explore the trends, hotspots, and drivers of water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), and food supply (FS) between 2000 and 2020. Similarly, we analyzed relationships among ESs and drivers of the multiple ecosystem services landscape index (MESLI). We used the self-organizing map method to obtain the types and distribution of the ES bundles, revealing the bundles, trade-offs, and synergies among ESs. The four ESs had an increasing trend, with CS having the highest increase; ES hotspot analysis showed differences among upper, middle, and lower reaches. Constraint lines among ESs and drivers were diverse; the corresponding SC and WY reached thresholds when CS values were 1477.81 and 460.5 t km-2, respectively. When FS values were 67.34 and 86.17 × 104 Yuan·km-2, CS and WY reached their thresholds. All critical drivers of the four ESs were natural factors. The thresholds that the MESLI reached with driver status were 1000 mm (evapotranspiration), 2121 mm (precipitation), 2.42° (slope), 1.46% (soil organic matter), 36.08% (sand), 30.75% (proportion of non-agricultural population), 18.57% (cropland proportion), 1.05 × 104 persons·km-2 (population density), and 84.84% (proportion of non-agricultural industries in total gross domestic product), respectively. FS, water supply, and ecological conservation bundles changed over the 20 years, and trade-offs and synergies among ESs within bundles differed. We revealed the complexity of ESs from multiple perspectives, which will enable the development of ecosystem management and conservation recommendations for the YREB and large-scale economic zones worldwide.

Assessing and decoupling ecosystem services evolution in karst areas: A multi-model approach to support land management decision-making

Incorporating Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) into land use planning provides a fresh perspective for informed land management decisions. ESV, influenced by socio-economic and natural factors, has complex driving mechanisms, particularly in China's southwestern karst regions. Studying mediating variables helps elucidate these mechanisms. Further research into ecosystem services interactions and effective land use policies in karst areas is needed. This study evaluates the ESV of Guizhou Province, located in southern China's karst region, using the benefit transfer approach. Combining the Guizhou Provincial Land Use Planning Outline (2006-2020) with the multi-objective programming (MOP) model optimized by genetic algorithm and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, four future development scenarios were designed. The response of ESV to land use and land cover (LULC) changes at the county scale under four different development scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and in the future was analyzed. A partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used to decouple the driving mechanism affecting ESV. The results show that over the past two decades, with the implementation of various ecological restoration projects, the total ESV has increased. The ESV for natural development scenarios, ecological conservation scenarios, economic development scenarios, and sustainable development scenarios are CNY 238.278 billion, CNY 400.514 billion, CNY 283.201 billion, and CNY 323.615 billion, respectively. The direct impacts of karst surface characteristic factors (KSCF), meteorological factors (MF), socio-economic factors (SEF) and transportation location factors (TLF) on ESV are positive (0.098), negative (-0.098), positive (0.336), and positive (0.109) respectively. The total effect of KSCF on ESV through influencing socio-economic factors and LULC is (-0.738), with SEF playing a complete mediating role. MF indirectly affect ESV by influencing LULC, with LULC playing a complete mediating role in this process. The PLS-SEM model shows that under the dominant position of LULC, the interaction between natural environmental factors and socio-economic factors on ESV is very complex. This study offers valuable insights that can guide managers in this region, as well as in other karst regions globally, in the development of sustainable land use policies.

Measuring ecosystem services supply and demand in rural areas: cases from China's key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization

There is a considerable challenge to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of ending poverty and maintaining ecosystems' function in rural areas, largely due to that the rural people's livelihood relied heavily on fragile ecosystems. China is ambitious to solve this issue by enacting economic stimulus policies such as ecological protection compensation and payment for ecosystem services (ESs). However, these interventions are generally based on stockholders' willingness and lack of scientific basis. Here, we firstly combined InVEST model and social-economic data to evaluate the ecosystem services supply and demand (ESSD), by taking 25 key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization in Sichuan province as the study cases. The coupling coordination degree model was then employed to measure the coordination relationship of ESSD. Finally, the driving factors were analyzed based on correlation analysis and stepwise regression method. The results showed that all ESs, except carbon sequestration, were oversupplied with significant spatial heterogeneity. From 2000 to 2020, the supply of all ESs increased, in which the food production had the most notable increase ratio amounting to 48.20%, while the demand of water retention and air purification decreased substantially. Due to the inconsistency between cultivated land area and population changes, significant spatial heterogeneity existed in the coordination relationship of food production. The counties with the highest and the lowest annual average coordination index were Yanyuan (0.9950) and Rangtang (0.1208), respectively. The rural employees and the agricultural gross output value were the key positive factors influencing the quantity and coordination of ESSD, while ecological compensation and financial expenditure had no significant impact, further indicating that these policies were not linked to the performance of ecosystems' function. Finally, policy implications were raised. This study provides a scientific framework for enacting the interventions towards ecological sustainability and poverty ending from ESSD perspective.

Benefits, potential and risks of China's grassland ecosystem conservation and restoration

Severe threats from ongoing degradation undermine the grasslands to support ecosystem services, biodiversity, and human well-being. Unfortunately, grasslands are often underappreciated and ignored in sustainable development agendas. Despite a series of projects for Grassland Ecosystem Conservation and Restoration (GECR) been implemented in China, the effects and cost-effectiveness of these efforts remain uncertain and untested. Therefore, we developed an integrated assessment framework to evaluate the benefits of GECR, considering ecological value accounting and input-output efficiency estimation. Additionally, we projected potential and risk areas for GECR in the future. The results showed that in 2020, the annual ecological value of China's grassland ecosystem was CNY 246 trillion. The investment in GECR exceeded CNY 7 billion, leading to an ecological benefit of CNY 3478 billion, with an input-output ratio of 1:446. Over the past 20 years, GECR positively impacted nearly 90 % of China's grassland. Furthermore, grasslands in southern provinces with favorable hydrothermal conditions exhibited significantly higher GECR efficiency, boasting an input-output ratio of >1:2000. The arid and semi-arid northern grasslands and the alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau, despite being the main regions for animal husbandry development and GECR, exhibited comparatively lower efficiency and input-output ratio in GECR. Moreover, the central and northwest parts of Tibet showed higher potential and lower risk, indicating their greatest likelihood of benefiting from GECR in the future. Meanwhile, Hulunbeier and Inner Mongolia deserve more special attention to reverse degradation and mitigate climate change due to their lower potential and higher risks. Our study provides an important basis for prioritizing and implementing effective and sustainable GECR treatment methods.

Exploring spatial-temporal driving factors for changes in multiple ecosystem services and their relationships in West Liao River Basin, China

Ecosystem services (ES) are the direct and indirect benefits people obtain from ecosystems, serving as a bridge linking ecological systems and social-economic systems. The quantitative assessment of the dynamic changes in ES and their relationships and the identification of the driving forces behind them have recently become a research hotspot. However, several research gaps remain challenging, such as the lack of an analytical framework for selecting relevant driving factors and the need for an innovative approach that integrally estimates the impacts of driving factors on the changes in ES and the relationships between ES. In this study, we modify the social-ecological system framework as the analytical basis and suggest a series of principles for selecting relevant driving factors, we then adopt the path analysis model to simultaneously and consistently quantify the contributions of driving factors to ES changes and their relationships. Using the West Liao River Basin (WLRB) as a case study, the results show the spatial-temporal variations in three ES and six driving factors from 2000 to 2020, divided into four periods. The estimation of path analysis model confirm two hypotheses that different driving factors exerted differential effects on changes in multiple ES in four periods for the whole WLRB and in three sub-basins for the period 2015-2020. In addition, the path analysis exhibits the quantitative relationships between food production, water yield, and soil conservation, which vary temporally and spatially in different periods and different sub-basins. The identification of driving factors is helpful for supporting policy-making to construct a coupled self-adjusted social-ecological for the benefit of the public.

Sustainable poverty alleviation through forests: Pathways and strategies

Forests are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems across the world. They can play both a direct and indirect role in global poverty alleviation through their social, economic and environmental functions. However, the potential of forests in poverty alleviation is underestimated to a great extent. Sustainability, the most essential advantage and characteristic of forests for poverty alleviation, has not been fully recognized. To that end, we propose the concept of sustainable poverty alleviation through forests (SPAF). This concept shifts the vision of poverty alleviation through forests from a narrow focus on subsistence and livelihood to a sustainable poverty alleviation that promotes all dimensions of human development. There is abundant evidence that forests can at least contribute to sustainable poverty alleviation through a synergy of seven pathways: subsistence materials, health, income, employment, women's empowerment, climate change mitigation and biodiversity, which are highly consistent with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. SPAF also faces enormous implementation challenges, so a sustainable global strategy is urgently needed to provide direction for worldwide poverty alleviation at the crossroads of nature and humanity.

An integrated approach to assess spatial and temporal changes in the contribution of the ecosystem to sustainable development goals over 20 years in China

Ecosystems are an important basis for promoting sustainable development goals (SDGs) through the provision of stable ecosystem services (ESs). In the past 20 years, China has implemented a series of forestry ecological development projects, resulting in the improvement of the ecological environment. In this context, changes in ESs in China may affect the contribution of ecosystems to the SDGs, but there is a lack of research in this area. Studies have shown that ESs can support multiple SDGs, and quantifying the contribution of ecosystems to SDGs is currently a research focus. However, few studies have quantified the extent of the contribution of different ESs to the SDGs, although these differences are generally assumed. To narrow this knowledge gap, we construct an assessment approach that integrates the extent of the contribution of different ESs to the SDGs and assesses the temporal and spatial dynamics of the contribution of ESs to the SDGs in China from 2000 to 2020. Our analysis results indicate that during the study period, fractional vegetation cover improved in China. In general, water provision, soil conservation, and food provision services improved, while carbon storage and biodiversity maintenance services declined. The contribution capacity of provincial ecosystems to the SDGs increased, except in Tibet, between 2000 and 2020. Overall, the contributions to the SDGs had obvious spatial differences. The research results can support policy formulation and research on ES management and SDGs.

Decoupling the response of vegetation dynamics to asymmetric warming over the Qinghai-Tibet plateau from 2001 to 2020

Global land surface air temperature data show that in the past 50 years, the rate of nighttime warming has been much faster than that of daytime, with the minimum daily temperature (Tmin) increasing about 40% faster than the maximum daily temperature (Tmax), resulting in a decreased diurnal temperature difference. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is known as the "roof of the world", where temperatures have risen twice as fast as the global average warming rate in the last few decades. The factors affecting vegetation growth on the QTP are complex and still not fully understood to some extent. Previous studies paid less attention to the explanations of the complicated interactions and pathways between elements that influence vegetation growth, such as climate (especially asymmetric warming) and topography. In this study, we characterized the spatial and temporal trends of vegetation coverage and investigated the response of vegetation dynamics to asymmetric warming and topography in the QTP during 2001-2020 using trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) analysis. We found that from 2001 to 2020, the entire QTP demonstrated a greening trend in the growing season (April to October) at a rate of 0.0006/a (p < 0.05). The spatial distribution pattern of partial correlation between NDVI and Tmax differed from that of NDVI and Tmin. PLS-SEM results indicated that asymmetric warming (both Tmax and Tmin) had a consistent effect on vegetation development by directly promoting greening in the QTP, with NDVI values being more sensitive to Tmin, while topographic factors, especially elevation, mainly played an indirect role in influencing vegetation growth by affecting climate change. This study offers new insights into how vegetation responds to asymmetric warming and references for local ecological preservation.

Gross ecosystem product (GEP): Quantifying nature for environmental and economic policy innovation

The large-scale loss of ecosystem assets around the world, and the resultant reduction in the provision of nature's benefits to people, underscores the urgent need for better metrics of ecological performance as well as their integration into decision-making. Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is a measure of the aggregate monetary value of final ecosystem-related goods and services in a specific area and for a given accounting period. GEP accounting captures the use of many ecosystem services in production processes across the economy, which are then valued in terms of their benefits to society. GEP has five key elements that make it transparent, trackable, and readily understandable: (1) a focus on nature's contributions to people; (2) the measurement of ecosystem assets as stocks and ecosystem services as flows; (3) the quantification of ecosystem service use; (4) an understanding of ecosystem service supply chains through value realization; and (5) the disaggregation of benefits across groups. Correspondingly, a series of innovative policies based on GEP have been designed and implemented in China. The theoretical and practical lessons provided by these experiences can support continued policy innovation for green and inclusive development around the world.

Relocating built-up land for biodiversity conservation in an uncertain future

Land use changes associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation exert profoundly detrimental impacts on biodiversity conservation. Urban development is one of the prevailing anthropogenic disturbances to wildlife habitat, because these developments are often considered permanent and irreversible. As a result, the potential benefits of built-up land relocation for biodiversity conservation have remained largely unexplored in environmental management practices. Here, we analyze recent built-up land relocation in Shanghai and explore how such restoration programs can affect future land change trajectories with regards to biodiversity conservation. Results show that 187.78 km2 built-up land in Shanghai was restored to natural habitat between 2017 and 2020. Further simulation analysis highlights that relocating built-up land can substantially promote conserve biodiversity. In particular, there would be less habitat loss, better natural habitat quality and more species habitat-suitable range under the scenarios with built-up land relocation. Species extinction assessment suggest that amphibians, mammals, and reptiles will all have an increasingly high extinction risk without built-up land relocation. However, there will even be a marginal decrease in extinction risk over time for mammals and reptiles if the relocation of built-up land is permitted, but still a moderate increase in extinction risk for amphibians. This study highlights the importance of incorporating rigorous conservation planning prior to development activities, thereby underpinning a sustainable approach to environmental management.

Natural capital investments in China undermined by reclamation for cropland

Globally, rising food demand has caused widespread biodiversity and ecosystem services loss, prompting growing efforts in ecological protection and restoration. However, these efforts have been significantly undercut by further reclamation for cropland. Focusing on China, the world's largest grain producer, we found that at the national level from 2000 to 2015, reclamation for cropland undermined gains in wildlife habitat and the ecosystem services of water retention, sandstorm prevention, carbon sequestration and soil retention by 113.8%, 63.4%, 52.5%, 29.0% and 10.2%, respectively. To achieve global sustainability goals, conflicts between inefficient reclamation for cropland and natural capital investment need to be alleviated.

Emergy-based sustainability evaluation model of hydropower megaproject incorporating the social-economic-ecological losses

The sustainable development of the hydropower megaproject (HM) is one of the critical components of sustainable water resources management. Hence, an accurate assessment of the impacts of social-economic-ecological losses (SEEL) on the sustainability of the HM system is of utmost importance. This study proposes an emergy-based sustainability evaluation model incorporating the social-economic-ecological losses (ESM-SEEL), which integrated the inputs and outputs during HM's construction and operation into an emergy calculation account. The Three Gorges Project (TGP) on the Yangtze River is selected as a case study to comprehensively evaluate the HM's sustainability from 1993 to 2020. Subsequently, the emergy-based indicators of TGP are compared with several hydropower projects in China and worldwide to analyze the multi-impacts of hydropower development. The results showed that the river chemical potential (2.35 E+24sej) and the emergy losses (L) (1.39 E+24sej) are the primary emergy inflow sections (U) of the TGP system, accounting for 51.1% and 30.4% of the U, respectively. The flood control function of the TGP produced tremendous socio-economic benefits (1.24 E+24sej), accounting for 37.8% of the total emergy yield. The resettlement and compensation, water pollution during operation, fish biodiversity loss, and sediment deposition are the main L of the TGP, accounting for 77.8%, 8.4%, 5.6%, and 2.6%, respectively. Based on the enhanced emergy-based indicators, the assessment reveals that the sustainability level of the TGP falls in the middle range compared to other hydropower projects. Thus, along with maximizing the benefits of the HM system, it is necessary to minimize the SEEL of the HM system, which is a critical approach to promote the coordinated development of the hydropower and ecological environment in the Yangtze River basin. This study helps to understand the complex relationship between human and water systems and provides a novel framework that can be used as an evaluation index and insights for hydropower sustainability assessment.

Coupling strength of human-natural systems mediates the response of ecosystem services to land use change

Addressing the dynamics of human-natural systems (HNS) driven by land use change (LC) is a key challenge for the sustainable development of ecosystem services (ES). However, how changes to the HNS coupling relationships affect ES is rarely reported. We used network analysis methods to construct an HNS correlation network in the Loess Plateau based on the correlation between the main components of HNS, such as ES, human factors, landscape pattern, vegetation cover, climate change and geomorphic characteristics, and quantitatively described the HNS coupling relationships through key network attributes. We analyzed the variation in HNS network attributes and their relationships with ES along an LC intensity gradient. The results show that carbon storage and soil conservation in the Loess Plateau increased by 0.56% and 0.26%, respectively, during the study period, while the habitat quality and water yield decreased by 0.11% and 0.18%, respectively. An increase in LC intensity reduces connectivity and density in the HNS network, which results in looser connections among HNS components. Importantly, we found that HNS network attributes explained 85% of ES variation across different LC intensity gradients and that connectivity and density had the strongest explanatory power. This means that LC mainly affects ES dynamics by changing the coupling strength of HNS. Our research offers a new perspective for linking LC-HNS-ES, which will help guide practitioners toward establishing and maintaining the sustainability of human well-being amidst changing HNS.

Sustainable poverty reduction models for the coordinated development of the social economy and environment in China

Sustainable development in impoverished areas is still a global challenge owing to trade-offs between development and conservation. There are large poverty-stricken areas (PSAs) in China, which overlap highly with ecologically sensitive areas. China has made great efforts to alleviate poverty over the years. The coordinated relationship between the social economy and the environment in PSAs, however, remains under-recognized. This study developed a county-level index system encompassing the socioeconomic and environmental sectors of China's PSAs. The integrated indexes of the two sectors were developed to reveal the spatial-temporal socioeconomic and environmental patterns and coupling coordination degree (CCD) levels were calculated to assess the coordinated relationships between them. The CCD indicated the increasingly coordinated development of socioeconomic and environmental conditions in China's PSAs from 2000 to 2020. Meanwhile, although the socioeconomic index achieved considerable growth with a growth rate of 58.4%, the environmental index was mildly improved with a growth rate of 19.6%, instead of a reduction. PSAs still have a large gap in socioeconomic development compared to non-poor areas; however, PSAs perform better in environmental index. Overall, the increased coordinated development between the social economy and the environment from 2000 to 2020 can be attributed to China's long-term, large-scale, and targeted interventions in poverty reduction and environmental conservation. Further, benefiting from the geodiversity of China, we identified four poverty reduction models which include advantageously, sustained, periodic, and limited effective models, on the basis of CCD change patterns. The four models can provide valuable experience for the rest of the world in tackling similar trade-offs of poverty reduction and environmental challenges.

Typical heavy metals accumulation, transport and allocation in a deglaciated forest chronosequence, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Understanding heavy metals (HMs) accumulation and transportation is the foundation to assess the ecological risks caused by the pollution of HMs in terrestrial ecosystems. There are large knowledge gaps regarding impacts of vegetation succession on shaping the HMs accumulation, transportation and allocation in the remote alpine regions. Herein, we comprehensively investigated the distribution and source contribution of mercury (Hg), cadmium (Cd) and chromium (Cr) along with vegetation succession in a deglaciated forest chronosequence of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results showed that Hg and Cd were highly enriched in organic soils, while Cr concentrations and pool sizes decreased significantly with the vegetation succession. Atmospheric Hg deposition contributed to the dominant Hg sources in topsoil (74 - 87%), whereas moraine weathering was the main source of Cr (73 - 76%). Both moraine (18 - 48%) and atmospheric deposition inputs (52 - 82%) affected Cd accumulation in topsoil. Over the last century, the accumulation rate of Hg and Cd showed the distinctly decreasing trends due to the vegetation leading to the elevated atmospheric depositions at the earlier deglacial sites. The negative accumulation rate of Cr along with the vegetation succession reflected the formation of organic soil diluting the geogenic inputs of Cr.

Coupling and coordinated development of low-carbon economy and green finance: an empirical study of the Yangtze River Delta region in China

The introduction of China's double carbon target has led to a new stage in the development of China's low-carbon economy, while the development of China's green finance is also facing new challenges. Based on the determining of the relationship between low-carbon economy and green finance, this study selected the Yangtze River Delta city cluster of China, an exemplary region for the development of low-carbon economy and green finance, constructed a multi-level comprehensive index system covering two systems of low-carbon economy and green finance and conducted a coupled and coordinated relationship analysis based on the panel data of green finance and low-carbon economy-related indicators from 2016 to 2020. The empirical results showed that the interaction between the low-carbon economy system and the green finance system in the Yangtze River Delta region gradually weakened during 2016-2020, and the mechanism of interaction between the two systems has not been fully developed and utilized. Overall, the development of green finance in all four provinces and cities has not gained sufficient momentum, which is a constraint to the coupled and coordinated development of low-carbon economy and green finance in the four provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta. Zhejiang Province and Jiangsu Province performed better in terms of the scale of green finance and the use of diversified instruments, while Shanghai City performed better in terms of low-carbon economy, whereas Anhui Province needs to improve in both low-carbon economy and green finance.

Four challenges to an effective national nature assessment

Comprehensive biodiversity assessments play an essential role in strengthening global and national conservation strategies. The recently announced first U.S. National Nature Assessment (NNA) provides an unparalleled opportunity to comprehensively review status and trends of biodiversity at all levels. This broad context can help in the coordination of actions to conserve individual species and ecosystems. The scientific assessments that informed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at the 2022 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) conference of parties provide models for synthesizing information on trends at multiple levels of biodiversity, including decline in abundance and distribution of species, loss of populations and genetic diversity, and degradation and loss of ecosystems and their services. The assessments then relate these trends to data on drivers of biodiversity loss and pathways to their mitigation. The U.S. NNA can augment such global analyses and avoid the pitfalls encountered by previous U.S. efforts by ensuring policy-relevant design, data accessibility, and inclusivity in process and product and by incorporating spatial data relevant to national and subnational audiences. Although the United States is not formally a CBD party, an effective NNA should take full advantage of the global context by including indicators adopted at the 2022 meeting and incorporating an independent review mechanism that supports periodic stocktaking and ratcheting up of ambition in response to identified shortfalls in stemming biodiversity loss. The challenges to design of an effective U.S. assessment are relevant globally as nations develop assessments and reporting to support the new global biodiversity framework's targets. By considering and incorporating the diverse ways in which society values and benefits from nature, such assessments can help bridge the gap between research and conservation practice and communicate the extent of the biodiversity crisis to the public, fostering broad-based support for transformative change in humanity's relationship to the natural world.

Large mammals and trees in eastern monsoonal China: anthropogenic losses since the Late Pleistocene and restoration prospects in the Anthropocene

Massive human-induced declines of large-sized animals and trees (megabiota) from the Late Pleistocene to the Anthropocene have resulted in downsized ecosystems across the globe, in which components and functions have been greatly simplified. In response, active restoration projects of extant large-sized species or functional substitutes are needed at large scales to promote ecological processes that are important for ecosystem self-regulation and biodiversity maintenance. Despite the desired global scope of such projects, they have received little attention in East Asia. Here, we synthesise the biogeographical and ecological knowledge of megabiota in ancient and modern China, with relevant data mostly located in eastern monsoonal China (EMC), aiming to assess its potential for restoring functionally intact ecosystems modulated by megabiota. We found that during the Late Pleistocene, 12 mammalian megafaunal (carnivores ≥15 kg and herbivores ≥500 kg) species disappeared from EMC: one carnivore Crocuta ultima (East Asian spotted hyena) and 11 herbivores including six megaherbivores (≥1000 kg). The relative importance of climate change and humans in driving these losses remains debated, despite accumulating evidence in favour of the latter. Later massive depletion of megafauna and large-sized (45-500 kg) herbivores has been closely associated with agricultural expansion and societal development, especially during the late Holocene. While forests rich in large timber trees (33 taxa in written records) were common in the region 2000-3000 years ago, millennial-long logging has resulted in considerable range contractions and at least 39 threatened species. The wide distribution of C. ultima, which likely favoured open or semi-open habitats (like extant spotted hyenas), suggests the existence of mosaic open and closed vegetation in the Late Pleistocene across EMC, in line with a few pollen-based vegetation reconstructions and potentially, or at least partially, reflecting herbivory by herbivorous megafauna. The widespread loss of megaherbivores may have strongly compromised seed dispersal for both megafruit (fleshy fruits with widths ≥40 mm) and non-megafruit plant species in EMC, especially in terms of extra-long-distance (>10 km) dispersal, which is critical for plant species that rely on effective biotic agents to track rapid climate change. The former occurrence of large mammals and trees have translated into rich material and non-material heritages passed down across generations. Several reintroduction projects have been implemented or are under consideration, with the case of Elaphurus davidianus a notable success in recovering wild populations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, although trophic interactions with native carnivorous megafauna have not yet been restored. Lessons of dealing with human-wildlife conflicts are key to public support for maintaining landscapes shared with megafauna and large herbivores in the human-dominated Anthropocene. Meanwhile, potential human-wildlife conflicts, e.g. public health risks, need to be scientifically informed and effectively reduced. The Chinese government's strong commitment to improved policies of ecological protection and restoration (e.g. ecological redlines and national parks) provides a solid foundation for a scaling-up contribution to the global scope needed for solving the crisis of biotic downsizing and ecosystem degradation.

Large-scale sediment and phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir based on a new reservoir operation method

Change of hydrodynamic conditions is a key factor inducing sedimentation, water eutrophication and algal blooms in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). How to mitigate sedimentation and phosphorus (P) retention by improving hydrodynamic conditions in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) is an urgent issue in the study of sediment and water environment. In this study, a Hydrodynamic-Sediment-Water quality model for the whole TGRA is proposed considering sediment and P inputs from numerous tributaries, and a new reservoir operation method namely the tide-type operation method (TTOM) is used to investigate the large-scale sediment and P transport in the TGR based on the model. Results indicate that the TTOM can reduce sedimentation and total phosphorus (TP) retention in the TGR. Compared with the actual operation method (AOM), sediment outflow and sediment export ratio (Eratio) of the TGR increased about 17.13% and 1%-3% in 2015-2017, and sedimentation decreased about 3% under the TTOM. TP retention flux and retention rate (RE) decreased about 13.77% and 2%-4%. The flow velocity (V) and sediment carrying capacity (S*) increased about 40% in the local reach. Larger daily water level fluctuation at dam site is more conducive to reducing sedimentation and TP retention in the TGR. Sediment inputs from the Yangtze River, Jialing River, Wu River and other tributaries account for 59.27%, 11.21%, 3.81% and 25.70% of the total sediment inflow during 2015-2017, and TP inputs were 65.96%, 10.01%, 17.40% and 6.63%. In the paper, an innovative method is proposed to reduce sedimentation and P retention in the TGR under the given hydrodynamic conditions and related quantitative contribution driven by the proposed method is analyzed. The work is favorable for expanding the understanding of the hydrodynamic and nutrition flux changes in the TGR, and provides a new perspective for water environment protection and reasonable operation of large reservoirs.

Do adaptive policy adjustments deliver ecosystem-agriculture-economy co-benefits in land degradation neutrality efforts? Evidence from southeast coast of China

Ecosystem restoration projects (ERPs) facilitate land degradation neutrality (LDN). However, the response dynamics and interactions of sectors within ecosystem-agriculture-economy nexus (EAEN) have not been sufficiently explored, which constrains the coordinated efficacy of LDN efforts. To bridge the knowledge gaps, the present study selected a land restoration hotspot in southeastern China as a case to investigate the simultaneous responses of the EAEN sectors to ERPs from a novel social-ecological system (SES)-based LDN perspective. Various biophysical models and Manne-Kendall trend test as well as multi-source spatially explicit data and socioeconomic statistics were applied to quantify the co-evolution of natural and socioeconomic indicators. ERPs converting cropland to woodland and grassland promoted vegetation restoration, reduced soil erosion, and enhanced carbon sequestration. However, cropland loss initially resulted in a decline in grain productivity. Policy adjustments and improvements in ecosystem restoration efforts and agricultural production conditions improved food security and increased agricultural production capacity. Effective policymaking and favorable resident engagement accelerated the transformation from a grain-production-based agriculture to diversified industries and, by extension, economic output, income, and population. The success of socioeconomic development under the SES framework for LDN demonstrated that this strategy could achieve the desired environmental, agricultural, and economic targets. EAEN under the SES conceptual framework provides an inclusive, comprehensive LDN perspective and improves ERP efficacy. The findings of the present work might be applicable to other land restoration areas challenged by the complex interactions among multidimensional factors. Comparably successful implementation of these ERPs could be realized if individual environmental and socioeconomic conditions are thoroughly considered during the formulation of coordinated development policies.

Investigating a Method for a Horizontal Comprehensive Eco-Compensation Standard of Interregional Ecological Regulating Services

Horizontal eco-compensation lacks effective solutions for implementing comprehensive multifactor compensation and determining the compensation standard. To meet those needs, a method named entropy flat surface was proposed and put into practice. However, some scientific problems were found. More specifically, the measurement method of the ecological value was controversial, and the value diffusion model did not reflect the change in the value gradient caused by spatial distance, while the value diffusion had an unclear scope. Therefore, this work optimized and studied the entropy curved-surface method in the case of E'zhou City. The main goal was to build a value-surface model of ecological regulating services based on maximum entropy production. As far as a tangible normal distribution surface is concerned, the model was more consistent with the ecosystem's energy flow characteristics. The external output of value could be precisely expressed by the dynamic and stable expansion state of the surface model. Therefore, the eco-compensation relations and results were clear. Theoretically, the E'Cheng and Huarong Districts should pay a total of 114 million CNY to the Liangzi Lake District. Our work provided a new perspective, in terms of finding a rule of the ecological regulating service values of the macro morphological structure, simulating the transmission and diffusion of multiple values in interregional areas, solving the calculation problem of the horizontal ecological comprehensive compensation standard, and clarifying the relations of compensation.

Spatial heterogeneity analysis of matching degree between endangered plant diversity and ecosystem services in Xishuangbanna

Biodiversity and ecosystem services (ESs) are closely linked. Human activities have caused critical damage to the habitat and ecosystem function of organisms, leading to decline in global biodiversity and ecosystem services. To ensure sustainable development of local ecological environments, it is critical to analyze the spatial matching degree of biodiversity and ESs and identify ecologically vulnerable areas. Taking Xishuangbanna, southern China, as an example, we constructed a pixel-scale matching degree index to analyze the spatial matching degree of endangered plant diversity (EPD) and four ESs and classified the matching degree into low-low, low-high, high-low, and high-high four types. The results revealed a mismatch relationship of EPD and ESs in more than 70% of areas. Under the influence of altitude and land use/land cover (LULC) type, the matching degree of EPD and ESs showed obvious spatial heterogeneity. In low-altitude areas in the south of Xishuangbanna, EPD and ESs mainly showed mismatch, while high-altitude areas in the west had a better match. Natural forest was the main land cover in which EPD and ESs showed high-high match and its areal proportion was much larger than that of rubber plantation, tea plantation, and cropland. Our findings also stress the need to concentrate conservation efforts on areas exhibiting a low-low match relationship, indicative of potential ecological vulnerability. The pixel-scale spatial matching degree analysis framework developed in this study for EPD and ESs provides high-resolution maps with 30 m × 30 m pixel size, which can support the implementation of ecological protection measures and policy formulation, and has a wide range of applicability. This study provides valuable insights for the sustainable management of biodiversity and ESs, contributing to the strengthening of local ecological environment protection.

The impact of ecological restoration on ecosystem services change modulated by drought and rising CO2

Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) are an indispensable component of natural climate solutions and have proven to be very important for reversing environmental degradation in vulnerable regions and enhancing ecosystem services. However, the level of enhancement would be inevitably influenced by global drought and rising CO2 , which remain less investigated. In this study, we took the Beijing-Tianjin sand source region (which has experienced long-term ERPs), China, as an example and combined the process-based Biome-BGCMuSo model to set multiple scenarios to address this issue. We found ERP-induced carbon sequestration (CS), water retention (WR), soil retention (SR), and sandstorm prevention (SP) increased by 22.21%, 2.87%, 2.35%, and 28.77%, respectively. Moreover, the ecosystem services promotion from afforestation was greater than that from grassland planting. Approximately 91.41%, 98.13%, and 64.51% of the increased CS, SR, and SP were contributed by afforestation. However, afforestation also caused the WR to decline. Although rising CO2 amplified ecosystem services contributed by ERPs, it was almost totally offset by drought. The contribution of ERPs to CS, WR, SR, and SP was reduced by 5.74%, 32.62%, 11.74%, and 14.86%, respectively, under combined drought and rising CO2 . Our results confirmed the importance of ERPs in strengthening ecosystem services provision. Furthermore, we provide a quantitative way to understand the influence rate of drought and rising CO2 on ERP-induced ecosystem service dynamics. In addition, the considerable negative climate change impact implied that restoration strategies should be optimized to improve ecosystem resilience to better combat negative climate change impacts.

Food-water-land-ecosystem nexus in typical Chinese dryland under different future scenarios

Healthy coupling of the food-water-land-ecosystem (FWLE) nexus is the basis for achieving sustainable development (SD), and FWLE in drylands is frontier scientific issues in the study of coupled human land systems. To comprehensively safeguard the future food, water, and ecological security of drylands, this study examined the implications for FWLE linkages in a typical Chinese dryland from the perspective of future land-use change. First, four different land-use scenarios were proposed using a land-use simulation model with a gray multi-objective algorithm, including an SD scenario. Then, the variation of three ecosystem services was explored: water yield, food production, and habitat quality. Finally, redundancy analysis was used to derive the future drivers of FWLE and explore their causes. The following results were obtained. In the future in Xinjiang, under the business as usual scenario, urbanization will continue, forest area will decrease, and water production will decline by 371 million m³. In contrast, in the SD scenario, this negative impact will be substantially offset, water scarcity will be alleviated, and food production will increase by 1.05 million tons. In terms of drivers, the anthropogenic drivers will moderate the future urbanization of Xinjiang to some extent, with natural drivers dominating the sustainable development scenario by 2030 and a potential 22 % increase in the drivers of precipitation. This study shows how spatial optimization can help protect the sustainability of the FWLE nexus in drylands and simultaneously provides clear policy recommendations for regional development.

Priority areas and benefits of ecosystem restoration in Beijing

Ecological restoration can significantly improve ecosystem services and human well-being and provide a basis for regional coordinated development and ecological security. To guide restoration efforts, information on the potential benefits of restoration was required to efficiently target investments. Although the number of studies focusing on ecosystem restoration has increased in recent decades, priority areas that integrate ecological and economic benefits have yet to be identified. We developed and applied a prioritization approach to identify potential priority sites in Beijing. We used the historical environmental data on Beijing to identify areas of degradation and to assess the feasibility of restoration. Ecosystem service and quality degradation, low ecosystem quality, and soil erosion were integrated into one index to indicate the restoration importance. Potential restoration benefits were mapped using the monetary value of six ecosystem services. Based on the importance and benefits of restoration, three scenarios were developed to identify priority restoration areas. In Beijing, restoring 30% of the degraded area (1531 km2) in priority areas by 2050 could increase the annual ecological benefit by more than 5 billion yuan, or approximately 787 million USD, and could decrease the ecological degradation index by 50%. By integrating explicit spatial information on restoration importance and restoration benefits, this methodology provides a feasible way to identify restoration priority areas and assess restoration benefits.

Integrative analysis of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and ecological vulnerability can facilitate improved spatial representation of nature reserves

Understanding how to identify priority conservation areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for nature reserve (NR) optimization and regional planning. This study reports a regional assessment in Qinghai Province of China, quantifying the biodiversity and the provision of four ESs (carbon sequestration-net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, soil retention, and sandstorm prevention). The representativeness-vulnerability framework was employed to identify priority conservation areas for biodiversity and ESs, and the conservation gaps of existing NRs. The results show that the biodiversity, ES supply, and vulnerability of biodiversity and ESs to human activities present spatial heterogeneity. Except for sandstorm prevention, the high-value areas of ESs are generally in eastern or southern Qinghai. NPP, water yield, soil retention, and biodiversity are positively correlated (p < 0.01). The ten NRs in Qinghai only protected 5.59 %, 5.01 %, 4.29 %, 0.65 %, and 4.49 % of the priority conservation area for biodiversity, NPP, water yield, sandstorm prevention, and soil retention, respectively. Overall, a total of 170,932 km² of theoretically comprehensive priority conservation areas for both biodiversity and ESs have been identified, which were mostly distributed in eastern, southern, and southeastern Qinghai. The existing NRs has notable conservation gaps (161,956 km² accounting for 94.75 % of the targeted conservation areas) for both biodiversity and ESs. This study illuminates a strategy for strengthening both biodiversity and ESs through NR optimization, which is also applicable to other regions.