Integration of IDPC Clustering Analysis and Interpretable Machine Learning for Survival Risk Prediction of Patients with ESCC

Precise forecasting of survival risk plays a pivotal role in comprehending and predicting the prognosis of patients afflicted with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The existing methods have the problems of insufficient fitting ability and poor interpretability. To address this issue, this work proposes a novel interpretable survival risk prediction method for ESCC patients based on extreme gradient boosting improved by whale optimization algorithm (WOA-XGBoost) and shapley additive explanations (SHAP). Given the imbalanced nature of the data set, the adaptive synthetic sampling (ADASYN) is first used to generate the samples with high survival risk. Then, an improved clustering by fast search and find of density peaks (IDPC) algorithm based on cosine distance and K nearest neighbors is used to cluster the patients. Next, the prediction model for each cluster is obtained by WOA-XGBoost and the constructed model is visualized with SHAP to uncover the factors hidden in the structured model and improve the interpretability of the black-box model. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme is demonstrated by analyzing the data collected from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University. The results of the analysis reveal that the proposed methodology exhibits superior performance, as indicated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.918 and accuracy of 0.881.

Joint Detection of Serum Vitamin D, Body Mass Index, and Tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha for the Diagnosis of Crohn's Disease

OBJECTIVE

Vitamin D (VD) deficiency was reported to contribute to the progression of Crohn's disease (CD) and affect the prognosis of CD patients. This study investigated the role of serum VD, body mass index (BMI), and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) in the diagnosis of Crohn's disease.

METHODS

CD patients (n=76) and healthy subjects (n=76) were enrolled between May 2019 and December 2020. The serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels, BMI, and TNF-α levels, together with other biochemical parameters, were assessed before treatment. The diagnostic efficacy of the single and joint detection of serum 25(OH)D, BMI, and TNF-α was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The levels of 25(OH) D, BMI, and nutritional indicators, including hemoglobin, total protein, albumin, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, were much lower, and the TNF-α levels were much higher in the CD patients than in the healthy subjects (P<0.05 for all). The areas under the ROC curve for the single detection of 25(OH)D, BMI, and TNF-α were 0.887, 0.896, and 0.838, respectively, with the optimal cutoff values being 20.64 ng/mL, 19.77 kg/m², and 6.85 fmol/mL, respectively. The diagnostic efficacy of the joint detection of 25(OH)D, BMI, and TNF-α was the highest, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.988 (95%CI: 0.968-1.000).

CONCLUSION

The joint detection of 25(OH)D, TNF-α, and BMI showed high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy in CD diagnosis; thus, it would be effective for the diagnosis of CD in clinical practice.

Health-related quality of life in patients with newly diagnosed inflammatory bowel disease: an observational prospective cohort study (IBSEN III)

PURPOSE

This unselected, population-based cohort study aimed to determine the level of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) at the time of diagnosis compared with a reference population and identify the demographic factors, psychosocial measures, and disease activity markers associated with HRQoL.

METHODS

Adult patients newly diagnosed with CD or UC were prospectively enrolled. HRQoL was measured using the Short Form 36 (SF-36) and Norwegian Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaires. Clinical significance was assessed using Cohen's d effect size and further compared with a Norwegian reference population. Associations between HRQoL and symptom scores, demographic factors, psychosocial measures, and disease activity markers were analyzed.

RESULTS

Compared with the Norwegian reference population, patients with CD and UC reported significantly lower scores in all SF-36 dimensions, except for physical functioning. Cohen's d effect sizes for men and women in all SF-36 dimensions were at least moderate, except for bodily pain and emotional role for men with UC and physical functioning for both sexes and diagnoses. In the multivariate regression analysis, depression subscale scores ≥ 8 on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, substantial fatigue, and high symptom scores were associated with reduced HRQoL.

CONCLUSION

Patients newly diagnosed with CD and UC reported statistically and clinically significantly lower scores in seven of the eight SF-36 dimensions than the reference population. Symptoms of depression, fatigue, and elevated symptom scores were associated with poorer HRQoL.

Dietary Behaviors and Beliefs in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

INTRODUCTION

Due to a lack of clear dietary guidelines, patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) self-impose dietary restrictions based on their own nutritional experiences. The aim of this study was to investigate dietary perceptions and behavior in IBD patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 82 patients (48 with Crohn's disease and 34 with ulcerative colitis) participated in this prospective, questionnaire-based study. Based on a literature review, the questionnaire was developed to investigate dietary beliefs, behaviors and food exclusions during IBD relapses and remission.

RESULTS

The majority of patients (85.4%) believed that diet can be a trigger factor for IBD relapses, and 32.9% believed that diet initiates the disease. The majority of patients (81.7%) believed that they should eliminate some products from their diets. The most often-pointed-out products were spicy and fatty foods, raw fruits and vegetables, alcohol, leguminous foods, cruciferous vegetables, dairy products and milk. Most patients (75%) modified their diets after diagnosis, and 81.7% imposed food restrictions to prevent IBD relapses.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of patients avoided certain foods during relapses as well as to maintain remission of IBD, basing this on their own beliefs, inconsistently with current scientific knowledge. Patient education should be a key determinant in IBD control.

Drinking water quality and inflammatory bowel disease: a prospective cohort study

Environmental factors, such as drinking water and diets, play an important role in the development of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study aimed to investigate the associations of metal elements and disinfectants in drinking water with the risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and to assess whether diet influences these associations. We conducted a prospective cohort study including 22,824 participants free from IBD from the Yinzhou cohort study in the 2016-2022 period with an average follow-up of 5.24 years. The metal and disinfectant concentrations were measured in local pipeline terminal tap water samples. Cox regression models adjusted for multi-level covariates were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). During an average follow-up period of 5.24 years, 46 cases of IBD were identified. For every 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in the concentration of manganese, mercury, selenium, sulfur tetraoxide (SO₄)_, chlorine, and nitrate nitrogen (NO₃_N) were associated with a higher risk of IBD with the HRs of 1.45 (95% CI: 1.14 to 1.84), 1.51 (95% CI: 1.24-1.82), 1.29 (95% CI: 1.03-1.61), 1.52 (95% CI: 1.26-1.83), 1.26 (95% CI: 1.18-1.34), and 1.66 (95% CI: 1.32-2.09), whereas zinc and fluorine were inversely associated with IBD with the HRs of 0.42 (95% CI: 0.24 to 0.73) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.54-0.84), respectively. Stronger associations were observed in females, higher income groups, low education groups, former drinkers, and participants who never drink tea. Diets have a moderating effect on the associations of metal and nonmetal elements with the risk of IBD. We found significant associations between exposure to metals and disinfectants and IBD. Diets regulated the associations to some extent.

Health Status, Quality of Life, Psychosocial Well-being, and Wearables Data of Patients With Active Ulcerative Colitis Receiving Filgotinib Therapy (FilgoColitis Study): Protocol for a Real-world Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Filgotinib was approved in Germany for treating patients with moderate to severe active ulcerative colitis in November 2021. It represents a preferential Janus kinase 1 inhibitor. The FilgoColitis study began recruiting immediately after approval and aims to assess filgotinib effectiveness under real-world conditions with a particular focus on patient-reported outcomes (PROs). The novelty of the study design is the optional inclusion of 2 innovative wearables, which could provide a new layer of patient-derived data.

OBJECTIVE

The study investigates quality of life (QoL) and psychosocial well-being of patients with active ulcerative colitis during long-term exposure to filgotinib. PROs related to QoL and psychometric profiles (fatigue and depression) are collected alongside with disease activity symptom scores. We aim to evaluate physical activity patterns collected by wearables as an addition to traditional PROs, patient-reported health status, and QoL in different phases of disease activity.

METHODS

This is a prospective, single-arm, multicentric, noninterventional, observational study with a sample size of 250 patients. QoL is assessed with validated questionnaires: the Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (sIBDQ) for the disease-specific QoL, the EQ-5D for the general QoL, and the fatigue questionnaire (Inflammatory Bowel Disease-Fatigue [IBD-F]). Physical activity data are collected from patients using wearables (SENS motion leg sensor [accelerometry] and smartwatch, GARMIN vívosmart 4).

RESULTS

The enrollment started in December 2021 and was still open at the date of submission. After 6 months of study initiation, 69 patients were enrolled. The study is expected to be completed in June 2026.

CONCLUSIONS

Real-world data for novel drugs are important to assess effectiveness outside of highly selected populations represented by randomized controlled trials. We examine whether patients' QoL and other PROs can be supplemented with physical activity patterns measured objectively. Use of wearables with newly defined outcomes represents an additional observational tool for monitoring disease activity in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00027327; https://drks.de/search/en/trial/DRKS00027327.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/42574.

Analysis of the efficacy and influencing factors of preoperative P-SOX neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimen for progressive gastric cancer-construction of a clinical prediction model

Preoperative neoadjuvant chemotherapy is one of the most common treatments for patients with advanced gastric cancer that cannot be completely removed by surgery. Nab-paclitaxel is a nano-formulation of paclitaxel that has been shown to be effective in treating stomach cancer. In addition, oxaliplatin + S-1 (SOX) has been a first-line chemotherapy regimen for gastric cancer, and it has the effect of tumor downstaging, improving the R0 resection rate, and reducing the postoperative recurrence rate, but the side effects are significant. During the application of oxaliplatin, obvious gastrointestinal reactions such as nausea and vomiting can be observed. There may also be blood system side effects such as leukopenia and thrombocytopenia, as well as serious adverse reactions such as peripheral neuropathy. Therefore, we reduced the amount of oxaliplatin in SOX and added nab-paclitaxel on the basis of this, in order to increase the efficacy while reducing the side effects of SOX regimen. We selected 192 patients with advanced gastric cancer admitted to the Department of Gastrointestinal Oncology of Qinghai University Hospital from July 2019 to February 2022, and all were treated with nab-paclitaxel plus oxaliplatin + S-1 neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimen, and underwent further surgery after chemotherapy. The tumor regression grade (TRG grade) and response evaluation criteria of solid tumor 1.1 (RECIST1.1) were taken as the dependent variables. According to TRG classification, 120 patients were effective (grade 0, 1, 2 = 62.50%, age: 55.63 ± 9.02 years), 72 patients were ineffective (grade 3 = 37.50%, 55.82 ± 9.21 years), and the effective rate of chemotherapy was 62.50%. According to RECIST1.1, 116 patients were effective (CR + PR = 60.42%, mean age 55.84 ± 9.02 years), 76 patients were ineffective (SD + PD = 39.58%, 55.47 ± 9.19 years), and the effective rate was 60.42%. The factors p < 0.2 in univariate logistic regression analysis were included in multivariate logistic regression analysis, and p < 0.05 was the statistical difference, and statistically significant factors were screened out for modeling and plotted the nomogram. Among them, in the tumor regression grade, the final factors related to effective chemotherapy are the degree of differentiation, cT. stage, tumor diameter, chemotherapy cycle, and the final factors related to effective chemotherapy in the solid tumor response evaluation criteria are the degree of differentiation, cT. stage, tumor diameter. Therefore, we conclude that the regimen of nab-paclitaxel combined with oxaliplatin and S-1 has certain positive significance in the treatment of advanced gastric cancer.

Inflammation-Driven Colorectal Cancer Associated with Colitis: From Pathogenesis to Changing Therapy

Patients affected by inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a two-fold higher risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) than the general population. IBD-related CRC follows a different genetic and molecular pathogenic pathway than sporadic CRC and can be considered a complication of chronic intestinal inflammation. Since inflammation is recognised as an independent risk factor for neoplastic progression, clinicians strive to modulate and control disease, often using potent therapy agents to achieve mucosal healing and decrease the risk of colorectal cancer in IBD patients. Improved therapeutic control of inflammation, combined with endoscopic advances and early detection of pre-cancerous lesions through surveillance programs, explains the lower incidence rate of IBD-related CRC. In addition, current research is increasingly focused on translating emerging and advanced knowledge in microbiome and metagenomics into personalised, early, and non-invasive CRC screening tools that guide organ-sparing therapy in IBD patients. This review aims to summarise the existing literature on IBD-associated CRC, focusing on new insights into the alteration of the intestinal barrier and the interactions with the gut microbiome as the initial promoter. In addition, the role of OMIC techniques for precision medicine and the impact of the available IBD therapeutic armamentarium on the evolution to CRC will be discussed.

Burden and Trends of IBD in 5 Asian Countries From 1990 to 2019: A Comparison With the United States and the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

IBD is becoming a global health challenge, with substantial variations in incidence and death rates between Eastern and Western countries.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the burden and trends of IBD in 5 Asian countries, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

DESIGN

This was a cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Data were obtained from Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

PATIENTS

Patients with IBD were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence, death, and age-standardized rates of IBD were measured.

RESULTS

The age-standardized incidence and rates of death from IBD gradually decreased worldwide from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate in the United States decreased from 1990 to 2000 and then increased gradually from 2000 to 2019; the age-standardized incidence rates in the United Kingdom, Mongolia, and China increased gradually from 1990 to 2019, whereas in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, it decreased from 1990 to 1995 and increased gradually from 1995 to 2019. The age-standardized death rate in the Republic of Korea exhibited a rising trend until 1995, fell significantly up to 2015, and then stabilized from 2015 to 2019. The age-standardized death rate in the United States showed a rising trend until 2007, and then decreased gradually from 2007 to 2019, whereas the rate in the United Kingdom showed a rising trend until 2010 and decreased from 2010 to 2019. The age-standardized death rates in China, Mongolia, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Japan decreased gradually from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized incidence and death rates in the United States and United Kingdom in recent decades were higher than those in the 5 Asian countries. The peak age-standardized incidence rates in the 7 countries were among people of 20 to 60 years of age. The age-standardized death rates in all 7 countries exhibited rising trends with increasing age, with older individuals, particularly those aged ≥70 years, accounting for the most deaths.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations of this study include data from different countries with different quality and accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

There have been large variations in the burdens and trends of IBD between 5 Asian countries, the United States, and the United Kingdom during the past 3 decades. These findings may help policymakers to make better public decisions and allocate appropriate resources. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B996 .

CARGA Y TENDENCIAS DE LA ENFERMEDAD INFLAMATORIA INTESTINAL EN CINCO PASES ASITICOS DESDE HASTA UNA COMPARACIN CON LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y EL REINO UNIDO

ANTECEDENTES:La enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal se está convirtiendo en un desafío en la salud mundial, con variaciones sustanciales en las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad entre los países orientales y occidentales.OBJETIVO:Investigar la carga y las tendencias de la enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal en cinco países asiáticos, EE. UU. y el Reino Unido.DISEÑO:Estudio transversal.ESCENARIO:Estudio de carga global de morbilidad 2019.PACIENTES:Enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:Incidencia, muerte y tasas estandarizadas por edad de enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal.RESULTADOS:Las tasas de incidencia y muerte estandarizadas por edad de la enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal disminuyeron gradualmente en todo el mundo desde 1990 hasta 2019. La tasa de incidencia estandarizada por edad en los EE. UU. disminuyó de 1990 a 2000 y luego aumentó gradualmente de 2000 a 2019, las tasas en el Reino Unido, Mongolia y China aumentaron gradualmente de 1990 a 2019, mientras que la tasa en la República Popular Democrática de Corea disminuyó de 1990 a 1995 y aumentó gradualmente de 1990 a 2019. La tasa de mortalidad estandarizada por edad en la República de Corea exhibió un tendencia ascendente hasta 1995, cayó significativamente hasta 2015 y luego se estabilizó de 2015 a 2019. La tasa de mortalidad estandarizada por edad en los EE. UU. mostró una tendencia ascendente hasta 2007 y luego disminuyó gradualmente de 2007 a 2019, mientras que la tasa en el Reino Unido mostró una tendencia ascendente hasta 2010 y disminuyó de 2010 a 2019. Las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad en China, Mongolia, la República Popular Democrática de Corea y Japón disminuyeron gradualmente de 1990 a 2019. La tasa de incidencia estandarizada por edad y mortalidad en los EE. UU. y el Reino Unido en la última década fueron más altas que las de los cinco países asiáticos. Las tasas máximas de incidencia estandarizadas por edad en los siete países se dieron entre personas de 20 a 60 años. Las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad en los siete países exhibieron tendencias crecientes con el aumento de la edad, y las personas mayores, en particular las de ≥70 años, representaron la mayoría de las muertes.LIMITACIONES:Datos de diferentes países con diferente calidad y precisión.CONCLUSIONES:Ha habido grandes variaciones en las cargas y tendencias de la enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal entre cinco países asiáticos, EE. UU. y el Reino Unido durante las últimas tres décadas. Estos hallazgos pueden ayudar a los formuladores de políticas a tomar mejores decisiones públicas y asignar los recursos apropiados. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B996 . (Traducción- Dr. Francisco M. Abarca-Rendon ).

Epidemiological, Clinical, Patient-Reported and Economic Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (Ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease) in Spain: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

This study describes the epidemiological, clinical, patient-reported and economic burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), in Spain.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed of observational studies reporting the epidemiological, clinical, patient-reported and economic burden of IBD in the Spanish population, from 2011 to 2021. Original articles and conference abstracts published in English or Spanish were eligible.

RESULTS

A total of 45 publications were included in the review. The incidence of IBD in adults ranged from 9.6 to 44.3 per 100,000 inhabitants (4.6 to 18.5 for CD and 3.4 to 26.5 for UC). The incidence increased between 1.5- and twofold from 2000 to 2016 (regionally). Up to 6.0% (CD) and 3.0% (UC) IBD-associated mortality was reported. Disease onset predominantly occurs between 30 and 40 years (more delayed for UC than CD). Most frequently reported gastrointestinal manifestations are rectal bleeding in UC and weight loss in CD. Extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) have been described in up to 47.4% of patients with CD and 48.1% of patients with UC. Psychiatric comorbidities were frequently reported in both CD and UC (depression up to 20% and anxiety up to 11%). Reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL) compared to the general population was reported. Significant symptomatology was associated with high levels of anxiety, depression, stress and lower HRQoL. Main healthcare resources reported were emergency department visits (24.0%), hospitalization (14.7%), surgery (up to 11%) and use of biologics (up to 60%), especially in CD. Direct and indirect annual costs per patient with UC were €1754.1 and €399.3, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Patients with CD and UC present a high disease burden which negatively impacts their HRQoL, leading to elevated use of resources.

Constructing a prediction model of inflammatory bowel disease recurrence based on factors affecting the quality of life

Aim

This study aimed to determine the factors affecting the quality of life of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and to construct a disease recurrence prediction model based on these influencing factors.

Methods

A prospective, single-center study in China was conducted between October 2020 and March 2021. The quality of life of patients was assessed using the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ). Multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to analyze the factors influencing the quality of life of patients with IBD. The chi-square test and the point-biserial correlation analysis were performed to identify factors associated with clinical recurrence. A binary logistic regression model was constructed to predict the recurrence. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the prediction model. Patients with IBD from April 2021 to June 2021 were randomly included for model verification to evaluate the disease recurrence prediction model.

Results

The average IBDQ score of patients with IBD was 172.2 ± 35.0 (decreased by 23.2%). The scores of all dimensions of the IBDQ were decreased, especially emotional function and systemic symptoms. Disease activity, age, extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs), and annual household income were important factors influencing the IBDQ scores of patients with ulcerative colitis, and these accounted for ~57.0% of the factors affecting the quality of life. Disease activity, EIMs, and occupational stress were important factors influencing the IBDQ scores of patients with Crohn's disease, and they accounted for approximately 75.1% of the factors affecting the quality of life. Annual household income, occupational stress, and IBDQ scores were independent risk factors for recurrence. The area under the curve of the recurrence prediction model was 81.1%. The sensitivity and specificity were 81.7 and 71.7%, respectively. The Youden index of the model was 0.534. The established recurrence prediction model has good discriminant validity in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

The quality of life of patients with IBD was generally poor. The use of factors affecting the quality of life to predict disease recurrence has high predictive value and can support the management of IBD by selecting patients at a higher risk for relapse.

Fatigue Is Associated with Anxiety and Lower Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Remission

Background and Objectives: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are chronic conditions with an unpredictable course and a remitting–relapsing evolution. Fatigue is a frequent complaint in patients with IBD, affecting approximately half of the newly diagnosed patients with IBD. The aim of this study was to analyze fatigue in patients with IBD in remission. Materials and Methods: One hundred nineteen consecutive outpatients diagnosed with IBD for over 3 months that were in corticosteroid-free clinical and biochemical remission at the time of assessment were included in this cross-sectional study. Out of them, 72 (60.5%) were male; the median age was 39 years (IQR 30–47). Seventy-seven patients (64.7%) were diagnosed with Crohn’s disease and forty-two (35.3%) with ulcerative colitis, with a median disease duration of 6 years (IQR 2–10). Fatigue, health-related quality of life (HR-QoL), anxiety and depression were evaluated using the following self-administered questionnaires: FACIT Fatigue, IBDQ 32 and HADS. Results: The mean FACIT-Fatigue score was 41.6 (SD ± 8.62), and 38.7% of patients were revealed as experiencing fatigue when a cut-off value of 40 points was used. The mean IBDQ 32 score was 189.4 (SD ± 24.1). Symptoms of anxiety and depression were detected in 37% and 21% of the patients, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, fatigue was significantly associated with lower HR-QoL (OR 2.21, 95% CI: 1.42–3.44, p < 0.001), symptoms of anxiety (OR 5.04, 95% CI: 1.20–21.22, p = 0.008), female sex (OR 3.32, 95% CI: 1.02–10.76, p = 0.04) and longer disease duration (OR 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01–1.27, p = 0.04). Conclusions: Fatigue is highly prevalent even in patients with inactive IBD and is correlated with lower HR-QoL and anxiety, as well as with clinical factors such as longer disease duration and female sex.

Clinical outcome of ulcerative colitis with severe onset in children: a multicenter prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

As best practices for treating children with severe-onset ulcerative colitis remain controversial in the era of biologic agents, we prospectively investigated treatments and outcomes in a multicenter cohort.

METHODS

Using a Web-based data registry maintained in Japan between October 2012 and March 2020, we compared management and treatment outcomes in an S1 group defined by a Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index of 65 or more points at diagnosis with those in an S0 group defined by an index value below 65.

RESULTS

Three hundred one children with ulcerative colitis treated at 21 institutions were included, with follow-up for 3.6 ± 1.9 years. Among them, 75 (25.0%) were in S1; their age at diagnosis was 12.3 ± 2.9 years, and 93% had pancolitis. Colectomy free rates in S1 were 89% after 1 year, 79% after 2, and 74% after 5, significantly lower than for S0 (P = 0.0003). Calcineurin inhibitors and biologic agents, respectively, were given to 53% and 56% of S1 patients, significantly more than for S0 patients (P < 0.0001). Among S1 patients treated with calcineurin inhibitors when steroids failed, 23% required neither biologic agents nor colectomy, similarly to the S0 group (P = 0.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Children with severe ulcerative colitis are likely to require powerful agents such as calcineurin inhibitors and biologic agents; sometimes colectomy ultimately proves necessary. Need for biologic agents in steroid-resistant patients might be reduced to an extent by interposing a therapeutic trial of CI rather than turning to biologic agents or colectomy immediately.

The cost of inflammatory bowel disease in high-income settings: a Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission

The cost of caring for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) continues to increase worldwide. The cause is not only a steady increase in the prevalence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in both developed and newly industrialised countries, but also the chronic nature of the diseases, the need for long-term, often expensive treatments, the use of more intensive disease monitoring strategies, and the effect of the diseases on economic productivity. This Commission draws together a wide range of expertise to discuss the current costs of IBD care, the drivers of increasing costs, and how to deliver affordable care for IBD in the future. The key conclusions are that (1) increases in health-care costs must be evaluated against improved disease management and reductions in indirect costs, and (2) that overarching systems for data interoperability, registries, and big data approaches must be established for continuous assessment of effectiveness, costs, and the cost-effectiveness of care. International collaborations should be sought out to evaluate novel models of care (eg, value-based health care, including integrated health care, and participatory health-care models), as well as to improve the education and training of clinicians, patients, and policy makers.

High Perceived Stress is Associated With Increased Risk of Ulcerative Colitis Clinical Flares

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Although perceived stress (PS) has been associated with symptomatic flares in inflammatory bowel disease, clinical and physiological measures associated with perceived stress and flare are not known. The aim of this study was to identify physiological factors associated with perceived stress in ulcerative colitis (UC) subjects, and their relationship with flare.

METHODS

Patients with UC in clinical remission (Simple Colitis Clinical Activity Index [SCCAI] score <5) underwent clinical and behavioral assessments, morning salivary cortisol measurements, autonomic nervous system activity testing (heart rate variability, electrodermal activity) at baseline with patient-reported SCCAI every 2 weeks over 1 to 2 years and fecal calprotectin at time of flare. Clinical flares (SCCAI ≥5) and biochemical flares (SCCAI ≥5 with fecal calprotectin ≥250 μg/g) were evaluated.

RESULTS

One hundred ten patients with UC were enrolled, with mean follow-up of 65.6 weeks. Patients with UC with higher and lower PS were determined. Although the high PS group had 3.6 times higher odds of a clinical flare than the low PS group, no significant differences in biochemical flares were observed between the low and high PS groups. The high vs low PS group differed in tonic sympathetic arousal as indexed by significantly greater baseline electrodermal activity (4.3 vs 3.4 microsiemens; P = .026) in the high PS group, but not in terms of heart rate variability and morning cortisol levels. Increased fecal calprotectin was associated with cardioautonomic measures, suggesting lower parasympathetic activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased PS assessed at baseline is associated with tonic sympathetic arousal and greater odds of clinical flares in patients with UC.

Clinical characteristics and quality of life in patients with inflammatory bowel disease-associated anemia in Southeast China

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Clinical characteristics of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with anemia have not been fully elucidated. This study aimed to investigate the frequency of, risk factors for, and management of anemia in IBD patients and to evaluate the quality of life (QOL) in IBD patients with anemia.

METHODS

We included two patient cohorts. In cohort 1, clinical data from 697 IBD patients were retrospectively collected. In cohort 2, the Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36) and Fatigue Scale-14 (FS-14) questionnaires for IBD patients were completed to evaluate the QOL.

RESULTS

Anemia was present in 35.6% of IBD patients [38.2% of Crohn's disease (CD) patients vs. 29.3% of ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, P = 0.025]. Elevated platelet (PLT) count (CD: OR, 1.004; 95% CI, 1.001-1.007; P = 0.007; UC: OR, 1.010; 95% CI, 1.004-1.016; P = 0.001), elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (CD: OR, 1.024; 95% CI, 1.012-1.036; P < 0.001; UC: OR, 1.025; 95% CI, 1.001-1.051; P = 0.044), and lower albumin levels (CD: OR, 0.801; 95% CI, 0.749-0.857; P < 0.001; UC: OR, 0.789; 95% CI, 0.720-0.864; P < 0.001) were associated with anemia. Among the IBD patients with anemia, only 25.8% received treatment for anemia. IBD patients with anemia had significantly lower SF-36 scores (P = 0.011) and higher FS-14 scores (P = 0.026) than those without anemia.

CONCLUSION

Anemia is common in IBD patients. Elevated PLT count and ESR are risk factors for anemia in IBD patients. Anemia may negatively impact IBD patients' QOL, but few anemia patients receive treatment for anemia.

Disease burden in primary sclerosing cholangitis in the Netherlands: A long-term follow-up study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a progressive, cholestatic liver disease which greatly impacts the lives of individuals. Burden of disease due to shortened life expectancy and impaired quality of life is ill-described. The aim of this study was to assess long-term disease burden in a large population-based registry with regard to survival, clinical course, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), medical consumption and work productivity loss.

METHODS

All PSC patients living in a geographically defined area covering ~50% of the Netherlands were included, together with patients from the three liver transplant centres. Survival was estimated by competing risk analysis. Proportional shortfall of QALYs during disease course was measured relative to a matched reference cohort using validated questionnaires. Work productivity loss and medical consumption were evaluated over time.

RESULTS

A total of 1208 patients were included with a median follow-up of 11.2 year. Median liver transplant-free survival was 21.0 years. Proportional shortfall of QALYs increased to 48% >25 years after diagnosis. Patients had on average 12.4 hospital contact days among which 3.17 admission days per year, annual medical costs were €12 169 and mean work productivity loss was 25%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data quantify for the first time disease burden in terms of QALYs lost, clinical events, medical consumption, costs as well as work productivity loss, and show that all these are substantial and increase over time.

Has the Incidence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Peaked? Evidence From the Population-Based NorDIBD Cohort 1978-2020

INTRODUCTION

While the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising globally, it has been suggested to stabilize in westernized countries, but this has not yet been shown in exhaustive and large cohorts. We generated an IBD cohort in North Denmark (NorDIBD) of 6,158 patients with IBD diagnosed from 1978 to 2020, based on all recorded and verified IBD diagnoses in the region. While describing the establishment of this cohort, we aimed to present the accurate incidence and prevalence of IBD over 4 decades.

METHODS

The NorDIBD cohort covered all pediatric and adult patients with an IBD diagnosis dated between January 1, 1978, and December 31, 2020, and living in North Denmark, hence forming an unselected population-based patient cohort. IBD incidence rates between 1978 and 2020 and IBD point prevalences between 2003 and 2020 were calculated.

RESULTS

We observed a 4-fold increase in the incidence of IBD from 11.5 per 100,000 persons (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.4-14.6) in the year 1978 to 51.3/100,000 (95% CI 45.5-57.1) in the year 2014, whereas in 2020, this rate stabilized. The overall prevalence of IBD more than doubled from 2003 to 2020, from 424 (95% CI 407-443) in 2003 to 872 (95% CI 849-896) IBD cases per 100,000 persons in 2020.

DISCUSSION

Our population-based NorDIBD cohort suggests stabilizing of the incidence of IBD in Denmark, whereas the prevalence continues to rise. Because the data represent a 10% sample of the entire Danish IBD population, we believe that data can be extrapolated to the IBD population in general and used for healthcare planning.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: Time to diagnosis and the impact of delayed diagnosis on clinical outcomes in inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND

The impact of diagnostic delay on the clinical course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) remains uncertain.

AIM

To perform a systematic review of time to diagnosis and the impact of delayed diagnosis on clinical outcomes in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC).

METHODS

We searched EMBASE and Medline from inception to 30th November 2022 for studies reporting diagnostic interval, from symptom onset to IBD diagnosis. We calculated the median, interquartile range (IQR) and pooled weighted median, of median diagnostic intervals of eligible studies. We defined delayed diagnosis as individuals above the 75th centile of longest time to diagnosis in each study. Using random effects meta-analysis, we pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for studies reporting clinical outcomes, according to delayed diagnosis.

RESULTS

One hundred and one studies representing 112,194 patients with IBD (CD = 59,359; UC = 52,835) met inclusion criteria. The median of median times to diagnosis was 8.0 (IQR: 5.0-15.2) and 3.7 months (IQR: 2.0-6.7) in CD and UC, respectively. In high-income countries, this was 6.2 (IQR: 5.0-12.3) and 3.2 months (IQR: 2.2-5.3), compared with 11.7 (IQR: 8.3-18.0) and 7.8 months (IQR: 5.2-21.8) in low-middle-income, countries, for CD and UC respectively. The pooled weighted median was 7.0 (95% CI: 3.0-26.4) and 4.6 (95% CI: 1.0-96.0) months, for CD and UC respectively. Eleven studies, representing 6164 patients (CD = 4858; UC = 1306), were included in the meta-analysis that examined the impact of diagnostic delay on clinical outcomes. In CD, delayed diagnosis was associated with higher odds of stricturing (OR = 1.88; CI: 1.35-2.62), penetrating disease (OR = 1.64; CI: 1.21-2.20) and intestinal surgery (OR = 2.24; CI: 1.57-3.19). In UC, delayed diagnosis was associated with higher odds of colectomy (OR = 4.13; CI: 1.04-16.40).

CONCLUSION

Delayed diagnosis is associated with disease progression in CD, and intestinal surgery in both CD and UC. Strategies are needed to achieve earlier diagnosis of IBD.