7
|
Arndt MB, Abate YH, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdulah DM, Abdulkader RS, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abtew YD, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Acuna JM, Adamu K, Adane DE, Addo IY, Adeyinka DA, Adnani QES, Afolabi AA, Afrashteh F, Afzal S, Agodi A, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi A, Ahmed A, Ahmed LAA, Ajami M, Aji B, Akbarialiabad H, Akonde M, Al Hamad H, Al Thaher Y, Al-Aly Z, Alhabib KF, Alhassan RK, Ali BA, Ali SS, Alimohamadi Y, Aljunid SM, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almustanyir S, Alomari MA, Al-Tammemi AB, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amiri S, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Anagaw TFF, Ancuceanu R, Angappan D, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Ariffin H, Aripov T, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arumugam A, Aryastami NK, Asaad M, Asemi Z, Asemu MT, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Astell-Burt T, Athari SS, Atomsa GH, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Aujayeb A, Awoke MA, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, B DB, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Baig AA, Baker JL, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Banach M, Banik PC, Barchitta M, Bärnighausen TW, Barr RD, Barrow A, Barua L, Bashiri A, Baskaran P, Basu S, Bekele A, Belay SA, Belgaumi UI, Bell SL, Belo L, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Beressa G, Bermudez ANC, Beyene HB, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhutta ZA, Bitaraf S, Bodolica V, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Braithwaite D, Butt MH, Butt ZA, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Cao C, Cárdenas R, Carvalho M, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Cembranel F, Cerin E, Chadwick J, Chalek J, Chandrasekar EK, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chauhan K, Chien JH, Chitheer A, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung SC, Claro RM, Columbus A, Cortese S, Cruz-Martins N, Dabo B, Dadras O, Dai X, D'Amico E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darban I, Darmstadt GL, Darwesh AM, Darwish AH, Das JK, Das S, Davletov K, De la Hoz FP, Debele AT, Demeke D, Demissie S, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Desai HD, Desta AA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diress M, Djalalinia S, Doaei S, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Edalati S, Edinur HA, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Elbarazi I, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, Elmeligy OAA, Eshetu HB, Espinosa-Montero J, Esubalew H, Etaee F, Etafa W, Fagbamigbe AF, Fakhradiyev IR, Falzone L, Farinha CSES, Farmer S, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Feigin VL, Feizkhah A, Feng X, Ferrara P, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Fitzgerald R, Flood D, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fowobaje KR, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galehdar N, Gardner WM, Garg P, Gebremeskel TG, Gerema U, Getacher L, Getachew ME, Getawa S, Ghaffari K, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghassemi F, Ghith N, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholami A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghozy S, Gill PS, Gill TK, Glasbey JC, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Goudarzi H, Grivna M, Guadie HA, Gubari MIM, Gudayu TW, Guha A, Gunawardane DA, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Hagins H, Haj-Mirzaian A, Handal AJ, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasani H, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, He J, Heidari-Foroozan M, Herteliu C, Hessami K, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hossain SJ, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hoveidamanesh S, Huang J, Humphrey KM, Hussain S, Hussien FM, Hwang BF, Iacoviello L, Iftikhar PM, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Inbaraj LR, Iravanpour F, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CD, J LM, Jacob L, Jahrami H, Jakovljevic M, Jamshidi E, Janodia MD, Jayanna K, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jebai R, Jema AT, Jeswani BM, Jonas JB, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kamal VK, Kamble BD, Kandel H, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Katoto PDMC, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Kayode GA, Kebede WM, Kebira JY, Keflie TS, Kerr JA, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalid N, Khammarnia M, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khan T, Khan YH, Khanali J, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatatbeh MM, Khateri S, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Khubchandani J, Kifle ZD, Kim GR, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kompani F, Kondlahalli SKMM, Koohestani HR, Korzh O, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus M, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kurmanova A, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Larsson AO, Latief K, Ledda C, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lenzi J, Li MC, Li W, Ligade VS, Lim SS, Lindstedt PA, Lo CH, Lo J, Lodha R, Loreche AM, Lorenzovici L, Lorkowski S, Madadizadeh F, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Mahajan PB, Makris KC, Malakan Rad E, Malik AA, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, Manguerra H, Marjani A, Martini S, Martorell M, Masrie A, Mathews E, Maugeri A, Mazaheri M, Mediratta RP, Mehndiratta MM, Melaku YA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Mentis AFA, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirghafourvand M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirza M, Misra S, Mithra P, Mohammad KA, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mohseni M, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Morrison SD, Mougin V, Mubarik S, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Munblit D, Murillo-Zamora E, Murray CJL, Mustafa G, Nagarajan AJ, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Natto ZS, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen PT, Nguyen QP, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Noor NM, Noubiap JJ, Nri-Ezedi CA, Nurrika D, Nwatah VE, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Oghenetega OB, Ogunsakin RE, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Okello DM, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olana DD, Oliveira GMM, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong SK, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ostojic SM, Otoiu A, Oumer A, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Papadopoulou P, Pardhan S, Pasovic M, Patel J, Pathan AR, Paudel D, Pawar S, Pepito VCF, Pereira G, Pereira M, Perico N, Perna S, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Piracha ZZ, Plakkal N, Pourtaheri N, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan V, Raggi C, Raghav P, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman A, Rahman MM, Rahman MO, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian V, Rahmawaty S, Rai RK, Raimondo I, Rajaa S, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rashid AM, Rashidi MM, Ratan ZA, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Redwan EMMM, Remuzzi G, Rengasamy KRR, Renzaho AMN, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Riad A, Rickard J, Rodriguez A, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohloff P, Roy B, Rwegerera GM, S N C, Saad AMA, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sachdeva Dhingra M, Saddik BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safi SZ, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Sahoo SS, Sajid MR, Salem MR, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanjeev RK, Sankararaman S, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sargazi S, Sarikhani Y, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saya GK, Sayeed A, Scarmeas N, Schlaich MP, Schneider RD, Schutte AE, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Seylani A, Shafie M, Shah PA, Shahbandi A, Shaikh MA, Shama ATT, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shanawaz M, Sharew MM, Shetty PH, Shiri R, Shivarov V, Shorofi SA, Shuval K, Sibhat MM, Silva LMLR, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Skryabina AA, Smith AE, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway JD, Sufiyan MB, Suleman M, Sun J, Sunuwar DR, Szeto MD, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Taheri Soodejani M, Tamuzi JLJL, Tan KK, Tarigan IU, Tariku Z, Tariqujjaman M, Tarkang EE, Tat NY, Taye BT, Taylor HJ, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Thangaraju P, Thapar R, Thiyagarajan A, Thrift AG, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran MTN, Ullah S, Undurraga EA, Unnikrishnan B, Ushula TW, Vahabi SM, Vakilian A, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Veroux M, Vervoort D, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wassie MM, Weerakoon KG, Wei MY, Werdecker A, Wickramasinghe ND, Wolde AA, Wubetie GA, Wulandari RD, Xu R, Xu S, Xu X, Yadav L, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdanpanah F, Yehualashet SS, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yu C, Yuan CW, Zamagni G, Zaman SB, Zanghì A, Zangiabadian M, Zare I, Zastrozhin M, Zigler B, Zoladl M, Zou Z, Kassebaum NJ, Reiner RC. Global, regional, and national progress towards the 2030 global nutrition targets and forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2025; 404:2543-2583. [PMID: 39667386 PMCID: PMC11703702 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)01821-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2023] [Revised: 08/16/2024] [Accepted: 08/29/2024] [Indexed: 12/14/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive report on progress for the period 2012 to 2021. We aimed to evaluate levels, trends, and observed-to-expected progress in prevalence and attributable burden from 2012 to 2021, with prevalence projections to 2050, in 204 countries and territories. METHODS The prevalence and attributable burden of each target indicator were estimated by age group, sex, and year in 204 countries and territories from 2012 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the most comprehensive assessment of causes of death, disability, and risk factors to date. Country-specific relative performance to date was evaluated with a Bayesian meta-regression model that compares prevalence to expected values based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of societal development status. Target progress was forecasted from 2021 up to 2050 by modelling past trends with meta-regression using a combination of key quantities and then extrapolating future projections of those quantities. FINDINGS In 2021, a few countries had already met some of the GNTs: five for exclusive breastfeeding, four for stunting, 96 for child wasting, and three for child overweight, and none met the target for low birthweight or anaemia in females of reproductive age. Since 2012, the annualised rates of change (ARC) in the prevalence of child overweight increased in 201 countries and territories and ARC in the prevalence of anaemia in females of reproductive age decreased considerably in 26 countries. Between 2012 and 2021, SDI was strongly associated with indicator prevalence, apart from exclusive breastfeeding (|r-|=0·46-0·86). Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a decrease in the prevalence of multiple indicators that was more rapid than expected on the basis of SDI (the differences between observed and expected ARCs for child stunting and wasting were -0·5% and -1·3%, respectively). The ARC in the attributable burden of low birthweight, child stunting, and child wasting decreased faster than the ARC of the prevalence for each in most low-income and middle-income countries. In 2030, we project that 94 countries will meet one of the six targets, 21 countries will meet two targets, and 89 countries will not meet any targets. We project that seven countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, 28 for child stunting, and 101 for child wasting, and no countries will meet the targets for low birthweight, child overweight, and anaemia. In 2050, we project that seven additional countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, five for low birthweight, 96 for child stunting, nine for child wasting, and one for child overweight, and no countries are projected to meet the anaemia target. INTERPRETATION Based on current levels and past trends, few GNTs will be met by 2030. Major reductions in attributable burden for exclusive breastfeeding and anthropometric indicators should be recognised as huge scientific and policy successes, but the comparative lack of progress in reducing the prevalence of each, along with stagnant anaemia in women of reproductive age and widespread increases in child overweight, suggests a tenuous status quo. Continued investment in preventive and treatment efforts for acute childhood illness is crucial to prevent backsliding. Parallel development of effective treatments, along with commitment to multisectoral, long-term policies to address the determinants and causes of suboptimal nutrition, are sorely needed to gain ground. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|