Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

The potential of genomics for restoring ecosystems and biodiversity

Billions of hectares of natural ecosystems have been degraded through human actions. The global community has agreed on targets to halt and reverse these declines, and the restoration sector faces the important but arduous task of implementing programmes to meet these objectives. Existing and emerging genomics tools offer the potential to improve the odds of achieving these targets. These tools include population genomics that can improve seed sourcing, meta-omics that can improve assessment and monitoring of restoration outcomes, and genome editing that can generate novel genotypes for restoring challenging environments. We identify barriers to adopting these tools in a restoration context and emphasize that regulatory and ethical frameworks are required to guide their use.

Spatial structure of fungal DNA assemblages revealed with eDNA metabarcoding in a forest river network in western Japan

Growing evidence has revealed high diversity and spatial heterogeneity of fungal communities in local habitats of terrestrial ecosystems. Recently, the analysis of environmental DNA has been undertaken to study the biodiversity of organisms, such as animals and plants, in both aquatic and terrestrial habitats. In the present study, we investigated fungal DNA assemblages and their spatial structure using environmental DNA metabarcoding targeting the internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) region of the rRNA gene cluster in habitats across different branches of rivers in forest landscapes. A total of 1,956 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were detected. Of these, 770 were assigned as Ascomycota, 177 as Basidiomycota, and 38 as Chytridiomycota. The river water was found to contain functionally diverse OTUs of both aquatic and terrestrial fungi, such as plant decomposers and mycorrhizal fungi. These fungal DNA assemblages were more similar within, rather than between, river branches. In addition, the assemblages were more similar between spatially closer branches. This spatial structuring was significantly associated with geographic distances but not with vegetation of the catchment area and the elevation at the sampling points. Our results imply that information on the terrestrial and aquatic fungal compositions of watersheds, and therefore their spatial structure, can be obtained by investigating the fungal DNA assemblages in river water.

Migration distance does not predict blood parasitism in a migratory songbird

Migration can influence host-parasite dynamics in animals by increasing exposure to parasites, by reducing the energy available for immune defense, or by culling of infected individuals. These mechanisms have been demonstrated in several comparative analyses; however, few studies have investigated whether conspecific variation in migration distance may also be related to infection risk. Here, we ask whether autumn migration distance, inferred from stable hydrogen isotope analysis of summer-grown feathers (δ 2Hf) in Europe, correlates with blood parasite prevalence and intensity of infection for willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus) wintering in Zambia. We also investigated whether infection was correlated with individual condition (assessed via corticosterone, scaled mass index, and feather quality). We found that 43% of birds were infected with Haemoproteus palloris (lineage WW1). Using generalized linear models, we found no relationship between migration distance and either Haemoproteus infection prevalence or intensity. There was spatial variation in breeding ground origins of infected versus noninfected birds, with infected birds originating from more northern sites than noninfected birds, but this difference translated into only slightly longer estimated migration distances (~214 km) for infected birds. We found no relationship between body condition indices and Haemoproteus infection prevalence or intensity. Our results do not support any of the proposed mechanisms for migration effects on host-parasite dynamics and cautiously suggest that other factors may be more important for determining individual susceptibility to disease in migratory bird species.

Impacts of soil nitrogen and phosphorus levels on cytotype performance of the circumboreal herb Chamerion angustifolium: implications for polyploid establishment

PREMISE

Although polyploidy commonly occurs in angiosperms, not all polyploidization events lead to successful lineages, and environmental conditions could influence cytotype dynamics and polyploid success. Low soil nitrogen and/or phosphorus concentrations often limit ecosystem primary productivity, and changes in these nutrients might differentially favor some cytotypes over others, thereby influencing polyploid establishment.

METHODS

We grew diploid, established tetraploid, and neotetraploid Chamerion angustifolium (fireweed) in a greenhouse under low and high soil nitrogen and phosphorus conditions and different competition treatments and measured plant performance (height, biomass, flower production, and root bud production) and insect damage responses. By comparing neotetraploids to established tetraploids, we were able to examine traits and responses that might directly arise from polyploidization before they are modified by natural selection and/or genetic drift.

RESULTS

We found that (1) neopolyploids were the least likely to survive and flower and experienced the most herbivore damage, regardless of nutrient conditions; (2) both neo- and established tetraploids had greater biomass and root bud production under nutrient-enriched conditions, whereas diploid biomass and root bud production was not significantly affected by nutrients; and (3) intra-cytotype competition more negatively affected diploids and established tetraploids than it did neotetraploids.

CONCLUSIONS

Following polyploidization, biomass and clonal growth might be more immediately affected by environmental nutrient availabilities than plant survival, flowering, and/or responses to herbivory, which could influence competitive dynamics. Specifically, polyploids might have competitive and colonizing advantages over diploids under nutrient-enriched conditions favoring their establishment, although establishment may also depend upon the density and occurrences of other related cytotypes in a population.

Integrating within-species variation in thermal physiology into climate change ecology

Accurately forecasting the response of global biota to warming is a fundamental challenge for ecology in the Anthropocene. Within-species variation in thermal sensitivity, caused by phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of thermal limits, is often overlooked in assessments of species responses to warming. Despite this, implicit assumptions of thermal niche conservatism or adaptation and plasticity at the species level permeate the literature with potentially important implications for predictions of warming impacts at the population level. Here we review how these attributes interact with the spatial and temporal context of ocean warming to influence the vulnerability of marine organisms. We identify a broad spectrum of thermal sensitivities among marine organisms, particularly in central and cool-edge populations of species distributions. These are characterized by generally low sensitivity in organisms with conserved thermal niches, to high sensitivity for organisms with locally adapted thermal niches. Important differences in thermal sensitivity among marine taxa suggest that warming could adversely affect benthic primary producers sooner than less vulnerable higher trophic groups. Embracing the spatial, temporal and biological context of within-species variation in thermal physiology helps explain observed impacts of ocean warming and can improve forecasts of climate change vulnerability in marine systems.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen’.

Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen

Documenting and explaining global patterns of biodiversity in time and space have fascinated and occupied biologists for centuries. Investigation of the importance of these patterns, and their underpinning mechanisms, has gained renewed vigour and importance, perhaps becoming pre-eminent, as we attempt to predict the biological impacts of global climate change. Understanding the physiological features that determine, or constrain, a species' geographical range and how they respond to a rapidly changing environment is critical. While the ecological patterns are crystallizing, explaining the role of physiology has just begun. The papers in this volume are the primary output from a Satellite Meeting of the Society of Experimental Biology Annual Meeting, held in Florence in July 2018. The involvement of two key environmental factors, temperature and oxygen, was explored through the testing of key hypotheses. The aim of the meeting was to improve our knowledge of large-scale geographical differences in physiology, e.g. metabolism, growth, size and subsequently our understanding of the role and vulnerability of those physiologies to global climate warming. While such an aim is of heuristic interest, in the midst of our current biodiversity crisis, it has an urgency that is difficult to overstate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.

Planetary Epidemiology: Towards First Principles

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To combine evolutionary principles of competition and co-operation with limits to growth models, generating six principles for a new sub-discipline, called "planetary epidemiology." Suggestions are made for how to quantify four principles.

RECENT FINDINGS

Climate change is one of a suite of threats increasingly being re-discovered by health workers as a major threat to civilization. Although "planetary health" is now in vogue, neither it nor its allied sub-disciplines have, as yet, had significant impact on epidemiology. Few if any theorists have sought to develop principles for Earth system human epidemiology, in its ecological, social, and technological milieu. The principles of planetary epidemiology described here can be used to stimulate applied, quantitative work to explore past, contemporary, and future population health, at scales from local to planetary, in order to promote enduring health. It is also proposed that global well-being will decline this century, without radical reform.

Terrestrial ecologists should stop ignoring plastic pollution in the Anthropocene time

The massive production of plastic started in mid 20th century. Today, only 60 years later and despite its obvious benefits, plastic pollution is ubiquitous, influencing all global environments and the planet's biota, including human-well-being. Plastic pollution may interact with other global change drivers, having large-scale, remote and long-lasting effects. Here we highlight that plastic pollution should be considered a main topic for global change research in the 21st century, especially among terrestrial ecologists at understudied continental regions such as South America.

Climatic shifts drove major contractions in avian latitudinal distributions throughout the Cenozoic

Many higher level avian clades are restricted to Earth's lower latitudes, leading to historical biogeographic reconstructions favoring a Gondwanan origin of crown birds and numerous deep subclades. However, several such "tropical-restricted" clades (TRCs) are represented by stem-lineage fossils well outside the ranges of their closest living relatives, often on northern continents. To assess the drivers of these geographic disjunctions, we combined ecological niche modeling, paleoclimate models, and the early Cenozoic fossil record to examine the influence of climatic change on avian geographic distributions over the last ∼56 million years. By modeling the distribution of suitable habitable area through time, we illustrate that most Paleogene fossil-bearing localities would have been suitable for occupancy by extant TRC representatives when their stem-lineage fossils were deposited. Potentially suitable habitat for these TRCs is inferred to have become progressively restricted toward the tropics throughout the Cenozoic, culminating in relatively narrow circumtropical distributions in the present day. Our results are consistent with coarse-scale niche conservatism at the clade level and support a scenario whereby climate change over geological timescales has largely dictated the geographic distributions of many major avian clades. The distinctive modern bias toward high avian diversity at tropical latitudes for most hierarchical taxonomic levels may therefore represent a relatively recent phenomenon, overprinting a complex biogeographic history of dramatic geographic range shifts driven by Earth's changing climate, variable persistence, and intercontinental dispersal. Earth's current climatic trajectory portends a return to a megathermal state, which may dramatically influence the geographic distributions of many range-restricted extant clades.

Move it or lose it: interspecific variation in risk response of pond-breeding anurans

Changes in behavior are often the proximate response of animals to human disturbance, with variability in tolerance levels leading some species to exhibit striking shifts in life history, fitness, and/or survival. Thus, elucidating the effects of disturbance on animal behavior, and how this varies among taxonomically similar species with inherently different behaviors and life histories is of value for management and conservation. We evaluated the risk response of three anuran species-southern leopard frog (Lithobates sphenocephalus), Blanchard's cricket frog (Acris blanchardi), and green tree frog (Hyla cinerea)-to determine how differences in microhabitat use (arboreal vs ground-dwelling) and body size (small vs medium) may play a role in response to a potential threat within a human-altered subtropical forest. Each species responded to risk with both flight and freeze behaviors, however, behaviors were species- and context-specific. As distance to cover increased, southern leopard frogs increased freezing behavior, green tree frogs decreased freezing behavior, and Blanchard's cricket frogs increased flight response. The propensity of green tree frogs to use the canopy of vegetation as refugia, and the small body size of Blanchard's cricket frogs likely led to greater flight response as distance to cover increased, whereas innate reliance on camouflage among southern leopard frogs may place them at greater risk to landscaping, agricultural, and transportation practices in open terrain. As such, arboreal and small-bodied species may inherently be better suited in human altered-landscapes compared to larger, ground-dwelling species. As land-use change continues to modify habitats, understanding how species respond to changes in their environment continues to be of importance, particularly in ecosystems where human-wildlife interactions are expected to increase in frequency.

Impacts of ocean acidification on sea urchin growth across the juvenile to mature adult life-stage transition is mitigated by warming

Understanding how growth trajectories of calcifying invertebrates are affected by changing climate requires acclimation experiments that follow development across life-history transitions. In a long-term acclimation study, the effects of increased acidification and temperature on survival and growth of the tropical sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla from the early juvenile (5 mm test diameter-TD) through the developmental transition to the mature adult (60 mm TD) were investigated. Juveniles were reared in a combination of three temperature and three pH/pCO₂ treatments, including treatments commensurate with global change projections. Elevated temperature and pCO₂/pH both affected growth, but there was no interaction between these factors. The urchins grew more slowly at pH 7.6, but not at pH 7.8. Slow growth may be influenced by the inability to compensate coelomic fluid acid-base balance at pH 7.6. Growth was faster at +3 and +6°C compared to that in ambient temperature. Acidification and warming had strong and interactive effects on reproductive potential. Warming increased the gonad index, but acidification decreased it. At pH 7.6 there were virtually no gonads in any urchins regardless of temperature. The T. gratilla were larger at maturity under combined near-future warming and acidification scenarios (+3°C/pH 7.8). Although the juveniles grew and survived in near-future warming and acidification conditions, chronic exposure to these stressors from an early stage altered allocation to somatic and gonad growth. In the absence of phenotypic adjustment, the interactive effects of warming and acidification on the benthic life phases of sea urchins may compromise reproductive fitness and population maintenance as global climatic change unfolds.

Thermoregulatory traits combine with range shifts to alter the future of montane ant assemblages

Predicting and understanding the biological response to future climate change is a pressing challenge for humanity. In the 21st century, many species will move into higher latitudes and higher elevations as the climate warms. In addition, the relative abundances of species within local assemblages are likely to change. Both effects have implications for how ecosystems function. Few biodiversity forecasts, however, take account of both shifting ranges and changing abundances. We provide a novel analysis predicting the potential changes to assemblage-level relative abundances in the 21st century. We use an established relationship linking ant abundance and their colour and size traits to temperature and UV-B to predict future abundance changes. We also predict future temperature driven range shifts and use these to alter the available species pool for our trait-mediated abundance predictions. We do this across three continents under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Under RCP2.6, predicted changes to ant assemblages by 2100 are moderate. On average, species richness will increase by 26%, while species composition and relative abundance structure will be 26% and 30% different, respectively, compared with modern assemblages. Under RCP8.5, however, highland assemblages face almost a tripling of species richness and compositional and relative abundance changes of 66% and 77%. Critically, we predict that future assemblages could be reorganized in terms of which species are common and which are rare: future highland assemblages will not simply comprise upslope shifts of modern lowland assemblages. These forecasts reveal the potential for radical change to montane ant assemblages by the end of the 21st century if temperature increases continue. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait-environment relationships into future biodiversity predictions. Looking forward, the major challenge is to understand how ecosystem processes will respond to compositional and relative abundance changes.

The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development

Climate changes are a phenomenon that can affect the daily activities of rural communities, with particular emphasis on those directly dependent on the agricultural and forestry sectors. In this way, the present work intends to analyse the impact that climate changes have on forest risk assessment, namely on how the occurrence of rural fires are affecting the management of the forest areas and how the occurrence of these fires has evolved in the near past. Thus, a comparative analysis of the data provided by IPMA (Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere), was carried out for the period from 2001 to 2017 with the climatic normal for the period between 1971 to 2000, for the variables of the average air temperature, and for the precipitation. In this comparative study, the average monthly values were considered and the months in which anomalies occurred were determined. Anomalies were considered in the months in which the average air temperature varied by 1 °C than the value corresponding to the climatic norm, in at least 50% of the national territory. The same procedure was repeated for the variable precipitation, counting as anomaly the occurrence of a variation in precipitation of 50%, also in 50% of the national territory. Then the calculation of the moving averages for cycles of 3, 5 and 7 periods were applied, and the trend lines were projected. Subsequently, the relationship between the results obtained and the occurrence of rural fires as well as the spatial distribution of forest area, species and structure were analyzed. From the results obtained it was possible to confirm the existence of a tendency for the occurrence of climatic anomalies, highlighting the occurrence of an increasing number of months with temperatures higher by at least 1 °C. It was possible to foresee the relation between the occurrence of rural fires and the periods of anomaly and absence of precipitation. From the results obtained it is also possible to infer that, analyzing the tendency for these phenomena to occur, it can be necessary to change the “critical period of rural fires”, since it is verified that what is currently in use does not covers the entire period where anomalies occur and where large-scale rural fires potentially can happen.

Woody vegetation dynamics in the tropical and subtropical Andes from 2001 to 2014: Satellite image interpretation and expert validation

The interactions between climate and land-use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range-restricted species, and high-beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001-2014. For the analyses we created annual land-cover/land-use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250 m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km² , and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 14 year linear trend (positive-forest gain, negative-forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n = 479) lost forests and 63.4% (n = 829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1,000-1,499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1,500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid-elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural-human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real-time land-use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network.

Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean

Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long-term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end-of-the-century changes based on a high-greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long-term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two-step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end-of-the-century (2080-2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management.

A review of quality of life (QOL) assessments and indicators: Towards a "QOL-Climate" assessment framework

Quality of life (QOL), although a complex and amorphous concept, is a term that warrants attention, especially in discussions on issues that touch on the impacts of climate change and variability. Based on the principles of RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Synthesis, we present a systematic review aimed at gaining insights into the conceptualization and methodological construct of previous studies regarding QOL and QOL-related indexes. We find that (i) QOL assessments vary in terms of conceptual foundations, dimensions, indicators, and units of analysis, (ii) social indicators are consistently used across assessments, (iii) most assessments consider indicators that pertain to the livability of the environment, and (iv) QOL can be based on objective indicators and/or subjective well-being, and on a composite index or unaggregated dimensions and indicators. However, we also find that QOL assessments remain poorly connected with climate-related issues, an important research gap. Our proposed "QOL-Climate" assessment framework, designed to capture the social-ecological impacts of climate change and variability, can potentially help fill this gap.

Climatic suitability and spatial distribution for summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming

Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 °C (GW1.5) and 2.0 °C (GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period (1971-2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region (CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards, and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions (the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China's main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward, though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.

How Do Continuous High-Resolution Models of Patchy Seabed Habitats Enhance Classification Schemes?

Predefined classification schemes and fixed geographic scales are often used to simplify and cost-effectively map the spatial complexity of nature. These simplifications can however limit the usefulness of the mapping effort for users who need information across a different range of thematic and spatial resolutions. We demonstrate how substrate and biological information from point samples and photos, combined with continuous multibeam data, can be modeled to predictively map percentage cover conforming with multiple existing classification schemes (i.e., HELCOM HUB; Natura 2000), while also providing high-resolution (5 m) maps of individual substrate and biological components across a 1344 km2 offshore bank in the Baltic Sea. Data for substrate and epibenthic organisms were obtained from high-resolution photo mosaics, sediment grab samples, legacy data and expert annotations. Environmental variables included pixel and object based metrics at multiple scales (0.5 m–2 km), which improved the accuracy of models. We found that using Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to predict continuous models of substrate and biological components provided additional detail for each component without losing accuracy in the classified maps, compared with a thematic model. Results demonstrate the sensitivity of habitat maps to the effects of spatial and thematic resolution and the importance of high-resolution maps to management applications.

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems through the lens of the size spectrum

Climate change is a complex global issue that is driving countless shifts in the structure and function of marine ecosystems. To better understand these shifts, many processes need to be considered, yet they are often approached from incompatible perspectives. This article reviews one relatively simple, integrated perspective: the abundance-size spectrum. We introduce the topic with a brief review of some of the ways climate change is expected to impact the marine ecosystem according to complex numerical models while acknowledging the limits to understanding posed by complex models. We then review how the size spectrum offers a simple conceptual alternative, given its regular power law size-frequency distribution when viewed on sufficiently broad scales. We further explore how anticipated physical aspects of climate change might manifest themselves through changes in the elevation, slope and regularity of the size spectrum, exposing mechanistic questions about integrated ecosystem structure, as well as how organism physiology and ecological interactions respond to multiple climatic stressors. Despite its application by ecosystem modellers and fisheries scientists, the size spectrum perspective is not widely used as a tool for monitoring ecosystem adaptation to climate change, providing a major opportunity for further research.

Temporal genomic contrasts reveal rapid evolutionary responses in an alpine mammal during recent climate change

Many species have experienced dramatic changes in their abundance and distribution during recent climate change, but it is often unclear whether such ecological responses are accompanied by evolutionary change. We used targeted exon sequencing of 294 museum specimens (160 historic, 134 modern) to generate independent temporal genomic contrasts spanning a century of climate change (1911-2012) for two co-distributed chipmunk species: an endemic alpine specialist (Tamias alpinus) undergoing severe range contraction and a stable mid-elevation species (T. speciosus). Using a novel analytical approach, we reconstructed the demographic histories of these populations and tested for evidence of recent positive directional selection. Only the retracting species showed substantial population genetic fragmentation through time and this was coupled with positive selection and substantial shifts in allele frequencies at a gene, Alox15, involved in regulation of inflammation and response to hypoxia. However, these rapid population and gene-level responses were not detected in an analogous temporal contrast from another area where T. alpinus has also undergone severe range contraction. Collectively, these results highlight that evolutionary responses may be variable and context dependent across populations, even when they show seemingly synchronous ecological shifts. Our results demonstrate that temporal genomic contrasts can be used to detect very recent evolutionary responses within and among contemporary populations, even in the face of complex demographic changes. Given the wealth of specimens archived in natural history museums, comparative analyses of temporal population genomic data have the potential to improve our understanding of recent and ongoing evolutionary responses to rapidly changing environments.

Predatory zooplankton on the move: Themisto amphipods in high-latitude marine pelagic food webs

Hyperiid amphipods are predatory pelagic crustaceans that are particularly prevalent in high-latitude oceans. Many species are likely to have co-evolved with soft-bodied zooplankton groups such as salps and medusae, using them as substrate, for food, shelter or reproduction. Compared to other pelagic groups, such as fish, euphausiids and soft-bodied zooplankton, hyperiid amphipods are poorly studied especially in terms of their distribution and ecology. Hyperiids of the genus Themisto, comprising seven distinct species, are key players in temperate and cold-water pelagic ecosystems where they reach enormous levels of biomass. In these areas, they are important components of marine food webs, and they are major prey for many commercially important fish and squid stocks. In northern parts of the Southern Ocean, Themisto are so prevalent that they are considered to take on the role that Antarctic krill play further south. Nevertheless, although they are around the same size as krill, and may also occur in swarms, their feeding behaviour and mode of reproduction are completely different, hence their respective impacts on ecosystem structure differ. Themisto are major predators of meso- and macrozooplankton in several major oceanic regions covering shelves to open ocean from the polar regions to the subtropics. Based on a combination of published and unpublished occurrence data, we plot out the distributions of the seven species of Themisto. Further, we consider the different predators that rely on Themisto for a large fraction of their diet, demonstrating their major importance for higher trophic levels such as fish, seabirds and mammals. For instance, T. gaudichaudii in the Southern Ocean comprises a major part of the diets of around 80 different species of squid, fish, seabirds and marine mammals, while T. libellula in the Bering Sea and Greenland waters is a main prey item for commercially exploited fish species. We also consider the ongoing and predicted range expansions of Themisto species in light of environmental changes. In northern high latitudes, sub-Arctic Themisto species are replacing truly Arctic, ice-bound, species. In the Southern Ocean, a range expansion of T. gaudichaudii is expected as water masses warm, impacting higher trophic levels and biogeochemical cycles. We identify the many knowlegde gaps that must be filled in order to evaluate, monitor and predict the ecological shifts that will result from the changing patterns of distribution and abundance of this important pelagic group.

Building an integrated infrastructure for exploring biodiversity: field collections and archives of mammals and parasites

Museum specimens play an increasingly important role in predicting the outcomes and revealing the consequences of anthropogenically driven disruption of the biosphere. As ecological communities respond to ongoing environmental change, host-parasite interactions are also altered. This shifting landscape of host-parasite associations creates opportunities for colonization of different hosts and emergence of new pathogens, with implications for wildlife conservation and management, public health, and other societal concerns. Integrated archives that document and preserve mammal specimens along with their communities of associated parasites and ancillary data provide a powerful resource for investigating, anticipating, and mitigating the epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary impacts of environmental perturbation. Mammalogists who collect and archive mammal specimens have a unique opportunity to expand the scope and impact of their field work by collecting the parasites that are associated with their study organisms. We encourage mammalogists to embrace an integrated and holistic sampling paradigm and advocate for this to become standard practice for museum-based collecting. To this end, we provide a detailed, field-tested protocol to give mammalogists the tools to collect and preserve host and parasite materials that are of high quality and suitable for a range of potential downstream analyses (e.g., genetic, morphological). Finally, we also encourage increased global cooperation across taxonomic disciplines to build an integrated series of baselines and snapshots of the changing biosphere. Los especímenes de museo desempeñan un papel cada vez más importante tanto en la descripción de los resultados de la alteración antropogénica de la biosfera como en la predicción de sus consecuencias. Dado que las comunidades ecológicas responden al cambio ambiental, también se alteran las interacciones hospedador-parásito. Este panorama cambiante de asociaciones hospedador-parásito crea oportunidades para la colonización de diferentes hospedadores y para la aparición de nuevos patógenos, con implicancias en la conservación y manejo de la vida silvestre, la salud pública y otras preocupaciones de importancia para la sociedad. Archivos integrados que documentan y preservan especímenes de mamíferos junto con sus comunidades de parásitos y datos asociados, proporcionan un fuerte recurso para investigar, anticipar y mitigar los impactos epidemiológicos, ecológicos y evolutivos de las perturbaciones ambientales. Los mastozoólogos que recolectan y archivan muestras de mamíferos, tienen una oportunidad única de ampliar el alcance e impacto de su trabajo de campo mediante la recolección de los parásitos que están asociados con los organismos que estudian. Alentamos a los mastozoólogos a adoptar un paradigma de muestreo integrado y holístico y abogamos para que esto se convierta en una práctica estándarizada de la obtención de muestras para museos. Con este objetivo, proporcionamos un protocolo detallado y probado en el campo para brindar a los mastozoólogos las herramientas para recolectar y preservar materiales de parásitos y hospedadores de alta calidad y adecuados para una gran variedad de análisis subsecuentes (e.g., genéticos, morfológicos, etc.). Finalmente, también abogamos por una mayor cooperación global entre las diversas disciplinas taxonómicas para construir una serie integrada de líneas de base y registros actuales de nuestra cambiante biosfera.

Climate Change, Bioclimatic Models and the Risk to Lichen Diversity

This paper provides an overview of bioclimatic models applied to lichen species, supporting their potential use in this context as indicators of climate change risk. First, it provides a brief summary of climate change risk, pointing to the relevance of lichens as a topic area. Second, it reviews the past use of lichen bioclimatic models, applied for a range of purposes with respect to baseline climate, and the application of data sources, statistical methods, model extents and resolution and choice of predictor variables. Third, it explores additional challenges to the use of lichen bioclimatic models, including: 1. The assumption of climatically controlled lichen distributions, 2. The projection to climate change scenarios, and 3. The issue of nonanalogue climates and model transferability. Fourth, the paper provides a reminder that bioclimatic models estimate change in the extent or range of a species suitable climate space, and that an outcome will be determined by vulnerability responses, including potential for migration, adaptation, and acclimation, within the context of landscape habitat quality. The degree of exposure to climate change, estimated using bioclimatic models, can help to inform an understanding of whether vulnerability responses are sufficient for species resilience. Fifth, the paper draws conclusions based on its overview, highlighting the relevance of bioclimatic models to conservation, support received from observational data, and pointing the way towards mechanistic approaches that align with field-scale climate change experiments.

Interactions Between Biotic and Abiotic Factors Affect Survival in Overwintering Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae)

Drosophila suzukii Matsumura is an invasive species affecting berry crops and cherries throughout North America, South America, and Europe. Previous research suggests that in temperate climates, the overwintering success of D. suzukii is likely dependent on access to food, shelter, and adequate cold hardening. We performed a multi-state study under field conditions for two winters to determine whether D. suzukii sex, phenotype (summer-morphotype, winter-morphotype), and life stage (adults, pupae) affected survival over time while recording naturally-occurring spatial and temporal variation in temperature. Access to food was provided and the flies were buried under leaf litter. Baited traps were deployed to determine whether local populations of D. suzukii were active throughout the winter season. The duration of exposure, mean daily temperature, and cumulative time below freezing significantly affected survival. Below freezing, D. suzukii survival was significantly reduced, particularly in northern locations. In contrast, we observed sustained survival up to 10 wk in southern locations among adults and pupae. Biotic factors also significantly affected survival outcomes: female survival was greater than male survival, winter-morphotype survival was greater than summer-morphotype survival, and adult survival was greater than pupal survival. In the north, wild D. suzukii were captured only in early winter, while in the south they were found throughout the winter. These data suggest that although adult D. suzukii may overwinter in sheltered microclimates, this ability may be limited in regions where the ground temperature, or site of overwintering, falls below freezing for extended durations.

A review of the major threats and challenges to global bat conservation

Bats are an ecologically and taxonomically diverse group accounting for roughly a fifth of mammalian diversity worldwide. Many of the threats bats face (e.g., habitat loss, bushmeat hunting, and climate change) reflect the conservation challenges of our era. However, compared to other mammals and birds, we know significantly less about the population status of most bat species, which makes prioritizing and planning conservation actions challenging. Over a third of bat species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) are considered threatened or data deficient, and well over half of the species have unknown or decreasing population trends. That equals 988 species, or 80% of bats assessed by IUCN, needing conservation or research attention. Delivering conservation to bat species will require sustained efforts to assess population status and trends and address data deficiencies. Successful bat conservation must integrate research and conservation to identify stressors and their solutions and to test the efficacy of actions to stabilize or increase populations. Global and regional networks that connect researchers, conservation practitioners, and local stakeholders to share knowledge, build capacity, and prioritize and coordinate research and conservation efforts, are vital to ensuring sustainable bat populations worldwide.

Range-expansion effects on the belowground plant microbiome

Plant range expansion is occurring at a rapid pace, largely in response to human-induced climate warming. Although the movement of plants along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is well-documented, effects on belowground microbial communities remain largely unknown. Furthermore, for range expansion, not all plant species are equal: in a new range, the relatedness between range-expanding plant species and native flora can influence plant-microorganism interactions. Here we use a latitudinal gradient spanning 3,000 km across Europe to examine bacterial and fungal communities in the rhizosphere and surrounding soils of range-expanding plant species. We selected range-expanding plants with and without congeneric native species in the new range and, as a control, the congeneric native species, totalling 382 plant individuals collected across Europe. In general, the status of a plant as a range-expanding plant was a weak predictor of the composition of bacterial and fungal communities. However, microbial communities of range-expanding plant species became more similar to each other further from their original range. Range-expanding plants that were unrelated to the native community also experienced a decrease in the ratio of plant pathogens to symbionts, giving weak support to the enemy release hypothesis. Even at a continental scale, the effects of plant range expansion on the belowground microbiome are detectable, although changes to specific taxa remain difficult to decipher.

Geographical adaptation prevails over species-specific determinism in trees' vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear-edge forests

Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short-term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species' limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short- and long-term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species' vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species-specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species-specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine-scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.

Microclimate and demography interact to shape stable population dynamics across the range of an alpine plant

Heterogeneous terrain in montane systems results in a decoupling of climatic gradients. Population dynamics across species' ranges in these heterogeneous landscapes are shaped by relationships between demographic rates and these interwoven climate gradients. Linking demography and climate variables across species' ranges refines our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of species' current and future ranges. We explored the importance of multiple microclimatic gradients in shaping individual demographic rates and population growth rates in 16 populations across the elevational distribution of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis). Using integral projection modeling, we ask how each rate varies across three microclimate gradients: accumulated degree-days, growing-season soil moisture, and days of snow cover. Range-wide variation in demographic rates was best explained by the combined influence of multiple microclimatic variables. Different pairs of demographic rates exhibited both similar and inverse responses to the same microclimatic gradient, and the microclimatic effects often varied with plant size. These responses resulted in range-wide projected population persistence, with no declining populations at either elevational range edge or at the extremes of the microclimate gradients. The complex relationships between topography, microclimate and demography suggest that populations across a species' range may have unique demographic pathways to stable population dynamics.

Climate-driven reduction of genetic variation in plant phenology alters soil communities and nutrient pools

We examined the hypothesis that climate-driven evolution of plant traits will influence associated soil microbiomes and ecosystem function across the landscape. Using a foundation tree species, Populus angustifolia, observational and common garden approaches, and a base population genetic collection that spans 17 river systems in the western United States, from AZ to MT, we show that (a) as mean annual temperature (MAT) increases, genetic and phenotypic variation for bud break phenology decline; (b) soil microbiomes, soil nitrogen (N), and soil carbon (C) vary in response to MAT and conditioning by trees; and (c) with losses of genetic variation due to warming, population-level regulation of community and ecosystem functions strengthen. These results demonstrate a relationship between the potential evolutionary response of populations and subsequent shifts in ecosystem function along a large temperature gradient.

Moderate warming over the past 25 years has already reorganized stream invertebrate communities

Climate warming often results in species range shifts, biodiversity loss and accumulated climatic debts of biota (i.e. slower changes in biota than in temperature). Here, we analyzed the changes in community composition and temperature signature of stream invertebrate communities over 25 years (1990-2014), based on a large set of samples (n = 3782) over large elevation, latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in central Europe. Although warming was moderate (average 0.5 °C), we found a strong reorganization of stream invertebrate communities. Total abundance (+35.9%) and richness (+39.2%) significantly increased. The share of abundance (TA) and taxonomic richness (TR) of warm-dwelling taxa (TA: +73.2%; TR: +60.2%) and medium-temperature-dwelling taxa (TA: +0.4%; TR: +5.8%) increased too, while cold-dwelling taxa declined (TA: -61.5%; TR: -47.3%). The community temperature index, representing the temperature signature of stream invertebrate communities, increased at a similar pace to physical temperature, indicating a thermophilization of the communities and, for the first time, no climatic debt. The strongest changes occurred along the altitudinal gradient, suggesting that stream invertebrates use the spatial configuration of river networks to track their temperature niche uphill. Yet, this may soon come to an end due to the summit trap effect. Our results indicate an ongoing process of replacement of cold-adapted species by thermophilic species at only 0.5 °C warming, which is particularly alarming in the light of the more drastic climate warming projected for coming decades.

Understanding interactions between plasticity, adaptation and range shifts in response to marine environmental change

Climate change is leading to shifts in species geographical distributions, but populations are also probably adapting to environmental change at different rates across their range. Owing to a lack of natural and empirical data on the influence of phenotypic adaptation on range shifts of marine species, we provide a general conceptual model for understanding population responses to climate change that incorporates plasticity and adaptation to environmental change in marine ecosystems. We use this conceptual model to help inform where within the geographical range each mechanism will probably operate most strongly and explore the supporting evidence in species. We then expand the discussion from a single-species perspective to community-level responses and use the conceptual model to visualize and guide research into the important yet poorly understood processes of plasticity and adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Extreme temperature impairs growth and productivity in a common tropical marine copepod

Shallow, tropical marine ecosystems provide essential ecosystem goods and services, but it is unknown how these ecosystems will respond to the increased exposure to the temperature extremes that are likely to become more common as climate change progresses. To address this issue, we tracked the fitness and productivity of a key zooplankton species, the copepod Pseudodiaptomus annandalei, acclimated at two temperatures (30 and 34 °C) over three generations. 30 °C is the mean temperature in the shallow water of the coastal regions in Southeast Asia, while 34 °C simulated a temperature extreme that occurs frequently during the summer period. For each generation, we measured the size at maturity and reproductive success of individuals. In all three generations, we found strong negative effects of warming on all measured fitness-related parameters, including prolonged development time, reduced size at maturity, smaller clutch sizes, lower hatching success, and reduced naupliar production. Our results suggest that P. annandalei are already exposed to temperatures that exceed their upper thermal optimum. Increased exposure to extreme temperatures may reduce the abundance of these tropical marine copepods, and thus reduce the availability of resources to higher trophic levels.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

Density differences between water masses preclude laminar flow in two-current choice flumes

Two-current choice flumes are used to measure preference and avoidance behaviour in response to chemical cues in aquatic animals. If used correctly, they produce two parallel, non-overlapping, laminar water currents in which the animal can move freely and choose between the two currents. As climate change is affecting water temperature, and altered precipitation patterns are changing water salinity, two-current choice flumes are increasingly being used to test the choice between water currents of different temperatures and salinities. This inevitably means that water currents of different densities are being used simultaneously in the flume. Here, we investigated the tolerance range for density differences due to temperature and salinity in five common flume designs. Through dye tests and stepwise modifications of temperatures and salinities we determined the limits for laminar and non-overlapping flows. We also developed an automated method for quantifying the overlap precisely and objectively. The tolerance for density differences between the water currents where laminar and non-overlapping flows were maintained was surprisingly low, withstanding  ± 0.5 °C temperature differences, and ± 0.1 PSU salinity differences, i.e. a maximum density difference of 0.28 gL^-1. Above these very narrow limits we found a range where the flumes showed partly overlapping, stratified water currents that preclude easy determination of cue preference. We conclude that two-current choice flumes are not suitable for testing the behavioural choices of aquatic animals using water currents of anything other than minor differences in temperature and/or salinity.

Dissecting cause from consequence: a systematic approach to thermal limits

Thermal limits mark the boundaries of ectotherm performance, and are increasingly appreciated as strong correlates and possible determinants of animal distribution patterns. The mechanisms setting the thermal limits of ectothermic animals are under active study and rigorous debate as we try to reconcile new observations in the lab and field with the knowledge gained from a long history of research on thermal adaptation. Here, I provide a perspective on our divided understanding of the mechanisms setting thermal limits of ectothermic animals. I focus primarily on the fundamental differences between high and low temperatures, and how animal form and environment can place different constraints on different taxa. Together, complexity and variation in animal form drive complexity in the interactions within and among levels of biological organization, creating a formidable barrier to determining mechanistic cause and effect at thermal limits. Progress in our understanding of thermal limits will require extensive collaboration and systematic approaches that embrace this complexity and allow us to separate the causes of failure from the physiological consequences that can quickly follow. I argue that by building integrative models that explain causal links among multiple organ systems, we can more quickly arrive at a holistic understanding of the varied challenges facing animals at extreme temperatures.