Severity of the metabolic syndrome as a predictor of type 2 diabetes between childhood and adulthood: the Princeton Lipid Research Cohort Study

Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score in Korean Adults: Analysis of the 2010-2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

BACKGROUND

Continuous metabolic syndrome (MS) severity scores that can track metabolic risk in individuals over time have been developed for Western populations. The present study aimed to develop gender- and age-specific equations for MS severity scores in Korean adults.

METHODS

Using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES) IV (2010-2012) and VI (2013-2015), we performed a confirmatory factor analysis of single MS factor that allowed for differential loadings across groups to generate gender- and age-specific, continuous MS severity scores. Then, we validated this equation in a different dataset of Korean adults.

RESULTS

In confirmatory analysis, waist circumference had the highest factor loading, indicating that waist circumference had the strongest correlation with MS among Korean adults. Lower factor loadings (< 0.4) among Korean adults aged 40-59 years were noted for systolic blood pressure and fasting glucose. MS severity score values were significantly correlated with metabolic parameters, including high-sensitivity C-reactive-protein, glycated hemoglobin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. Furthermore, MS severity scores well predicted traditional MS according to receiver operating characteristic analysis in a validation dataset (KNHANES VII). In a longitudinal cohort dataset, participants diagnosed with Adult Treatment Program III (ATP-III) MS after an initial assessment had progressively higher baseline MS severity scores in relationship to their time until ATP-III MS diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The new MS severity score equations for Korean adults proposed in this study provide a clinically-accessible continuous measure of MS for potential use in identifying adults at higher risk for MS-related diseases and following changes within individuals over time.

Different Contributions of Dyslipidemia and Obesity to the Natural History of Type 2 Diabetes: 3-Year Cohort Study in China

AIM

It is known that different stages of type 2 diabetes represent distinct pathophysiological changes, but how the spectrum of risk factors varies at different stages is not yet clarified. Hence, the aim of this study was to compare the effect of different metabolic variables on the natural history of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A total of 5,213 nondiabetic (normal glucose tolerance (NGT) and prediabetes) Chinese older than 40 years participated this prospective cohort study, and 4,577 completed the 3-year follow-up. Glycemic status was determined by standard oral glucose tolerance test both at enrollment and follow-up visit. Predictors for conversion in glycemic status were studied in a corresponding subcohort using the multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The incidence of prediabetes and diabetes of the cohort was 93.6 and 42.2 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. After a 3-year follow-up, 33.1% of prediabetes patients regressed to NGT. The predictive weight of body mass index (BMI), serum triglyceride, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure in different paths of conversions among diabetes, prediabetes, and NGT differed. Specifically, BMI was the strongest predictor for regression from prediabetes to NGT, while triglyceride was most prominent for onset of diabetes. One SD increase in serum triglyceride was associated with a 1.29- (95% CI 1.10-1.52; P = 0.002) or 1.12- (95% CI 1.01-1.27; P = 0.039) fold higher risk of diabetes for individuals with NGT or prediabetes, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Risk factors for different stages of diabetes differed, suggesting personalized preventive strategies for individuals with different basal glycemic statuses.

Use of a Metabolic Syndrome Severity Z Score to Track Risk During Treatment of Prediabetes: An Analysis of the Diabetes Prevention Program

OBJECTIVE

We assessed whether changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) severity during the treatment of prediabetes are associated with reduced risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed data from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) for 2,476 adults in 1996-1999 with prediabetes randomized to receive treatment with lifestyle modification, metformin, or placebo for 2-3 years and followed through 2014 for T2DM and CVD outcomes. We calculated effect sizes from baseline in a MetS severity z score (MetS-Z) and the individual MetS components, and assessed relationships between 1-year effect size and incident T2DM and CVD using hazard ratios (HRs) and mediation analysis.

RESULTS

Baseline MetS-Z and its components were associated with risk of incident T2DM and CVD. During year 1 of intervention, MetS-Z and its components decreased most with lifestyle modification, followed by treatment with metformin and placebo. Risk of T2DM within 1-5 years was most strongly associated with 1-year changes in MetS-Z and waist circumference (both HRs for a 1 SD increase = 1.80), whereas the risk of CVD was associated with a 1-year change in MetS-Z, glucose, and systolic blood pressure. In mediation analyses, the effect of lifestyle modification on T2DM risk was mediated by 1-year changes in MetS-Z, waist circumference, glucose, and triglycerides, whereas the effect of metformin was mediated by MetS-Z and glucose.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in these risk indicators of MetS severity during intervention in the DPP reflect altered disease risk and may help in tracking earlier responses to treatment and in motivating patients.

Food insecurity is associated with prediabetes and dietary differences in U.S. adults aged 20-39

Food insecurity has been linked with lifestyle and metabolic health differences in varying populations. We sought to assess how food insecurity may have been associated with prediabetes and dietary differences in a relatively young subset of U.S. adults. We examined data from the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003-2014) participants aged 20-39 with complete data regarding food insecurity and metabolic laboratory assessment. We also assessed macronutrient intake and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) usage. All logistic regression models controlled for age, sex, and household income. Among 3684 included participants, food insecurity had 19.12% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 16.16, 22.08) prevalence. Food-insecure participants had prediabetes/diabetes prevalence of 37.36% (95%CI: 30.47, 44.25) and higher odds of having prediabetes/diabetes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.36, 95%CI: 1.00, 1.85). Food-insecure adults has significantly different macronutrient intake: higher carbohydrates (p = 0.02), less protein (p = 0.01), and less total fat (p = 0.04) consumption. Food-insecure adults who used SNAP (compared to food-insecure adults who did not use SNAP) had higher odds of having metabolic syndrome (ATP-III MetS) (aOR = 2.56, 95%CI: 1.27, 5.22). We found that food insecurity was relatively prevalent in this subset of younger U.S. adults. We showed that food-insecure participants had increased prevalence and odds of prediabetes. These associations were also correlated with dietary differences.

Validation of a non-invasive method for the early detection of metabolic syndrome: a diagnostic accuracy test in a working population

OBJECTIVES

A non-invasive method for the early detection of metabolic syndrome (NIM-MetS) using only waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and blood pressure (BP) has recently been published, with fixed cut-off values for gender and age. The aim of this study was to validate this method in a large sample of Spanish workers.

DESIGN

A diagnostic test accuracy to assess the validity of the method was performed.

SETTING

Occupational health services.

PARTICIPANTS

The studies were conducted in 2012-2016 on a sample of 60 799 workers from the Balearic Islands (Spain).

INTERVENTIONS

The NCEP-ATP III criteria were used as the gold standard. NIM-MetS has been devised using classification trees (the χ² automatic interaction detection method).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Anthropometric and biochemical variables to diagnose MetS. Sensitivity, specificity, validity index and Youden Index were determined to analyse the accuracy of the diagnostic test (NIM-MetS).

RESULTS

With regard to the validation of the method, sensitivity was 54.7%, specificity 94.9% and the Validity Index 91.2%. The cut-off value for WHtR was 0.54, ranging from 0.51 (lower age group) to 0.56 (higher age group). Variables more closely associated with MetS were WHtR (area under the curve (AUC)=0.85; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.86) and systolic BP (AUC=0.79; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.80)). The final cut-off values for the non-invasive method were WHtR ≥0.56 and BP ≥128/80 mm Hg, which includes four levels of MetS risk (very low, low, moderate and high).

CONCLUSIONS

The analysed method has shown a high validity index (higher than 91%) for the early detection of MetS. It is a non-invasive method that is easy to apply and interpret in any healthcare setting. This method provides a scale of MetS risk which allows more accurate detection and more effective intervention.

Metabolic syndrome severity and lifestyle factors among adolescents

The continued rise of pediatric obesity globally has raised concerns for related sequalae. One marker of risk is the metabolic syndrome, a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors that is associated with future cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. MetS has at its core visceral adipocytes exhibiting dysfunction as a result of excess fat content. MetS in children and adolescents is linked to unhealthy lifestyle practices such as sedentary lifestyles and excess consumption calories. As such, the optimal means of addressing MetS is targeting a decrease in adiposity through lifestyle modification, a decrease in MetS following increases in physical activity and improvements in the quality and content of food intake. Efforts remain needed in increasing motivation to these changes and maintaining adherence to avoid long-term sequelae.

Overweight adolescents' brain response to sweetened beverages mirrors addiction pathways

Many adolescents struggle with overweight/obesity, which exponentially increases in the transition to adulthood. Overweight/obesity places youth at risk for serious health conditions, including type 2 diabetes. In adults, neural substrates implicated in addiction (e.g., orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), striatum, amygdala, and ventral tegmental area) have been found to be relevant to risk for overweight/obesity. In this study, we examined three hypotheses to disentangle the potential overlap between addiction and overweight/obesity processing by examining (1) brain response to high vs. low calorie beverages, (2) the strength of correspondence between biometrics, including body mass index (BMI) and insulin resistance, and brain response and (3) the relationship between a measure of food addiction and brain response using an established fMRI gustatory cue exposure task with a sample of overweight/obese youth (M age = 16.46; M BMI = 33.1). Greater BOLD response was observed across the OFC, inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), nucleus accumbens, right amygdala, and additional frontoparietal and temporal regions in neural processing of high vs. low calorie beverages. Further, BMI scores positively correlated with BOLD activation in the high calorie > low calorie contrast in the right postcentral gyrus and central operculum. Insulin resistance positively correlated with BOLD activation across the bilateral middle/superior temporal gyrus, left OFC, and superior parietal lobe. No relationships were observed between measures of food addiction and brain response. These findings support the activation of parallel addiction-related neural pathways in adolescents' high calorie processing, while also suggesting the importance of refining conceptual and neurocognitive models to fit this developmental period.

Assessing Baseline and Temporal Changes in Cardiometabolic Risk Using Metabolic Syndrome Severity and Common Risk Scores

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2 DM ) is considered a cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) risk equivalent, thereby linking assessment of cardiometabolic risk with that of CVD risk over time. Our goal was to determine how commonly used CVD risk scores and metabolic syndrome (MetS) severity performed in predicting T2 DM with and without ultimate CVD . Methods and Results We assessed data from 8273 participants of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study, using the pooled cohort atherosclerotic CVD risk score, the Framingham Risk Score, and a MetS severity Z score to assess their association with future risk for CVD alone, T2 DM alone, or both over 20 years of follow-up. Baseline levels of all scores were significantly associated with isolated incident T2 DM (odds ratios [ OR s] for each 1- SD increase: atherosclerotic CVD =1.7, Framingham risk score=1.7, MetS Z score=5.1). All 3 baseline scores were also significantly associated with isolated incident CVD (atherosclerotic CVD OR =2.4, Framingham risk score OR =2.3, MetS Z-score OR =1.8), with the 2 CVD scores remaining significant independent of MetS severity. MetS severity was strongly associated with future T2 DM leading to CVD (MetS Z-score OR =7.0, atherosclerotic CVD OR =3.9, Framingham risk score OR =3.5). Furthermore, changes in MetS severity were independently associated with future T2 DM - CVD progression. Conclusions CVD risk scores are associated with risk for future isolated T2 DM in addition to isolated CVD . However, MetS severity (both baseline and changes over time) was more strongly associated with T2 DM , including T2 DM ultimately leading to CVD . Following MetS severity within patients over time may identify those at greatest risk of combined cardiometabolic disease.

Longitudinal Associations of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Between Childhood and Young Adulthood: The Bogalusa Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Childhood metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with insulin resistance and increased risk for later development of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). In using MetS severity z-scores, our objective was to assess longitudinal associations in MetS severity, fasting insulin levels as a sign of insulin resistance and risk for T2DM, and uric acid levels as a biomarker of oxidative stress leading to CVD.

METHODS

We used linear regression to analyze longitudinal data from 285 white and black participants from the Bogalusa Heart Study evaluated at baseline at ages 5-19 and as young adults after a mean of 12.0 years follow-up. We assessed correlations between childhood MetS severity and young-adult MetS severity, fasting insulin, and uric acid levels, both overall and by sex- and racial subgroups.

RESULTS

Overall, childhood MetS z-scores were positively associated with young-adult MetS z-scores (r = 0.52), insulin (r = 0.34), and uric acid (r = 0.28) (all P < 0.001). These associations were consistent across all sex- and racial subgroups, except for young adult uric acid in white males in which childhood MetS-z was not associated (r = 0.15, P = 0.243). There was a strong cross-sectional association of young-adult MetS z-scores with insulin (r = 0.70) and uric acid (r = 0.57) (both P < 0.001), which was consistent for all sex- and racial subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

These positive longitudinal correlations between childhood MetS z-scores and markers of later insulin resistance and oxidative stress suggest long-term durability of risk for CVD and T2DM. This suggests potential for MetS severity to serve as an indicator to monitor for future risk of T2DM and CVD.

Use of BMI as the marker of adiposity in a metabolic syndrome severity score: Derivation and validation in predicting long-term disease outcomes

BACKGROUND

Estimates of adiposity in evaluating the metabolic syndrome (MetS) have traditionally utilized measures of waist circumference (WC), whereas body mass index (BMI) is more commonly used clinically. Our objective was to determine if a MetS severity Z-score employing BMI as its measure of adiposity (MetS-Z-BMI) would perform similarly to a WC-based score (MetS-Z-WC) in predicting future disease.

METHODS

To formulate the MetS-Z-BMI, we performed confirmatory factor analysis on a sex- and race/ethnicity-specific basis on MetS-related data for 6870 adult participants of the National Health and Nutrition Survey 1999-2010. We then validated this score and compared it to MetS-Z-WC in assessing correlations with future coronary heart disease (CHD) and Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using Cox proportional hazard analysis of 13,094 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and Jackson Heart Study.

RESULTS

Loading factors, which represent the relative contribution of each component to the latent MetS factor, were lower for BMI than for WC in formulating the two respective scores (MetS-Z-BMI and MetS-Z-WC). Nevertheless, MetS-Z-BMI and MetS-Z-WC exhibited similar hazard ratios (HR) toward future disease. For each one standard-deviation-unit increase in MetS-Z-BMI, HR for CHD was 1.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.65, 1.88) and HR for T2DM was 3.39 (CI 3.16, 3.63) (both p < 0.0001). There were no meaningful differences between the MetS-Z-WC and MetS-Z-BMI scores in their associations with future CHD and T2DM.

CONCLUSIONS

A MetS severity Z-score utilizing BMI as its measure of adiposity operated similarly to a WC-based score in predicting future CHD and T2DM, suggesting overall similarity in MetS-based risk as estimated by both measures of adiposity. This indicates potential clinical usefulness of MetS-Z-BMI in assessing and following MetS-related risk over time.

Metabolic Syndrome Severity and Risk of CKD and Worsened GFR: The Jackson Heart Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The metabolic syndrome (MetS), as assessed using dichotomous criteria, is associated with increased risk of future chronic kidney disease (CKD), though this relationship is unclear among African Americans, who have lower risk for MetS but higher risk for CKD.

METHODS

We performed logistic regression using a sex- and race-specific MetS-severity z-score to assess risk of incident CKD among 2,627 African-American participants of the Jackson Heart Study, assessed at baseline and 8 years later. Based on quartile of baseline MetS severity, we further assessed prevalence of being in the lowest quartile of baseline GFR, the lowest quartile of relative GFR at follow-up, microalbuminuria and incident CKD.

RESULTS

Higher MetS-severity was associated with higher prevalence of GFR in the lowest quartile at baseline among males and females. Among African-American females but not males, higher baseline MetS-severity was associated with a higher prevalence of baseline elevations in microabuminuria (p<0.01), steep decline in GFR (p<0.001) and a higher incidence of CKD (p<0.0001). Women in increasing quartiles of baseline MetS-severity exhibited a linear trend toward higher odds of future CKD (p<0.05), with those in the 4th quartile of MetS-severity (compared to the 1st) having an odds ratio of 2.47 (95% confidence interval 1.13, 5.37); no such relationship was seen among men (p value for trend 0.49).

CONCLUSION

MetS-severity exhibited sex-based interactions regarding risk for future GFR deterioration and CKD, with increasing risk in women but not men. These data may have implications for triggering CKD screening among African-American women with higher degrees of MetS-severity.

Geographical variation in the prevalence of obesity, metabolic syndrome, and diabetes among US adults

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes remain significant public health concerns. Targeting of prevention efforts by geographical location has been suggested by the Institute of Medicine to coincide with the presence of area-based risk. The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a stronger risk factor than is obesity for the prediction of future CVD and diabetes, yet its prevalence has not previously been described geographically. Our objective is to determine geographical variation in the prevalence of obesity, MetS, and diabetes among US adults. We assessed the prevalence of obesity, MetS, and diabetes by US census division, and the prevalence of obesity, MetS, and diabetes for each sex and racial/ethnic group by US region among 9826 US non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic adults aged 20–65 years participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2014. We also compared a sex- and race/ethnicity-specific MetS severity score by geographical area. The prevalence of obesity, MetS, and diabetes varied by US census division and region, with overall similarity by geographical area in the prevalence of each of these conditions. The prevalence of MetS was particularly high (≥35%) in the West North Central, West South Central, and East South Central and low (30%) in the Pacific, New England, and Mid-Atlantic divisions. Some of the geographical variation appeared due to differences among non-Hispanic white females, who had a high prevalence of MetS (>32%) in the Midwest and South and a low prevalence of MetS (24%) in the West and Northeast. Geographical differences in MetS imply variation in the risk for future CVD and diabetes, with more elevated risk in the center of the United States. As MetS is a stronger risk factor for prediction of CVD and T2DM than is obesity, these differences are potentially important for prompting public health efforts toward surveillance and prevention in high-risk areas.

Prevalence and characteristics of metabolic syndrome in adults from the French childhood leukemia survivors' cohort: a comparison with controls from the French population

The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome among adults from the French LEA childhood acute leukemia survivors' cohort was prospectively evaluated considering the type of anti-leukemic treatment received, and compared with that of controls. The metabolic profile of these patients was compared with that of controls. A total of 3203 patients from a French volunteer cohort were age- and sex-matched 3:1 to 1025 leukemia survivors (in both cohorts, mean age: 24.4 years; females: 51%). Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Metabolic syndrome was found in 10.3% of patients (mean follow-up duration: 16.3±0.2 years) and 4.5% of controls, (OR=2.49; P<0.001). Patients transplanted with total body irradiation presented the highest risk (OR=6.26; P<0.001); the other treatment groups also showed a higher risk than controls, including patients treated with chemotherapy only. Odd Ratios were 1.68 (P=0.005) after chemotherapy only, 2.32 (P=0.002) after chemotherapy and cranial irradiation, and 2.18 (P=0.057) in patients transplanted without irradiation. Total body irradiation recipients with metabolic syndrome displayed a unique profile compared with controls: smaller waist circumference (91 vs 99.6 cm; P=0.01), and increased triglyceride levels (3.99 vs 1.5 mmol/L; P<0.001), fasting glucose levels (6.2 vs 5.6 mmol/L; P=0.049), and systolic blood pressure (137.9 vs 132.8 mmHg; P=0.005). By contrast, cranial irradiation recipients with metabolic syndrome had a larger waist circumference (109 vs 99.6 cm; P=0.007) than controls. Regardless of the anti-leukemic treatment, metabolic syndrome risk was higher among childhood leukemia survivors. Its presentation differed depending on the treatment type, thus suggesting a divergent pathophysiology. This study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov identifier: 01756599.

Metabolic syndrome severity is significantly associated with future coronary heart disease in Type 2 diabetes

Background

The severity of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is significantly associated with future coronary heart disease (CHD) among individuals without baseline Type 2 diabetes. However, the validity of assessing MetS severity among individuals with diabetes is unknown.

Objective

To assess for differences in MetS severity by timing of Type 2 diabetes diagnosis and to assess for associations between MetS severity and future CHD among individuals with diabetes.

Methods

We analyzed data from participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, including 1419 with- and 7241 without diabetes, followed during 4 visits and adjudicated CHD diagnoses over a 20-year period. We used Cox-regression techniques to assess hazard ratios (HR) of CHD based on a sex- and race/ethnicity-specific MetS-severity Z-score (standard MetS score) and a similar MetS-severity score formulated without incorporating glucose as a component of MetS (no-glucose MetS score).

Results

For both the standard- and no-glucose MetS-severity scores, scores were highest in the baseline-diabetes group, lowest in the never-diabetes group and intermediate in the incident-diabetes groups. Among participants with diabetes, increasing MetS-severity score at baseline was associated with incident CHD, using both the standard MetS score (HR 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21, 1.39) and the no-glucose score (HR 1.42, CI 1.24, 1.62) (both p < 0.001). For the baseline-diabetes group, this relationship remained significant when Visit 2 Hemoglobin-A_1c was included in the model, both for the standard MetS score (HR 1.21, CI 1.09, 1.34; p < 0.001) and the no-glucose score (HR 1.25, CI 1.04, 1.51; p = 0.02).

Conclusions

MetS severity appears to provide an estimate of metabolic disarray in the setting of diabetes and is predictive of future CHD events beyond HbA1c. Identifying MetS severity among individuals with diabetes may help in identifying those at higher risk, who could then receive further preventative treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12933-017-0647-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing the added predictive ability of a metabolic syndrome severity score in predicting incident cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and Jackson Heart Study

BACKGROUND

The severity of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) predicts future coronary heart disease (CHD) and diabetes independent of the individual MetS components. Our aim was to evaluate whether MetS severity conferred additional discrimination to existing scoring systems for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes risk.

METHODS

We assessed Cox proportional hazard models of CHD- and diabetes risk among 13,141 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and the Jackson Heart Study, using the Framingham Risk Calculator, the American Heart Association's Atherosclerotic CVD calculator, the American Diabetes Association diabetes risk score and an additional diabetes risk score derived from ARIC data. We then added a MetS-severity Z-score to these models and assessed for added risk discrimination by assessing Akaike information criterion, c-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI).

RESULTS

The MetS severity score appears to add to the predictive ability of individual CHD and diabetes risk scores. Using the IDI, MetS improved risk prediction for diabetes but not CHD risk. In all 4 scoring systems, MetS severity had a significant non-event NRI, improving the ability to exclude individuals without events. Assessing interactions between risk scores and MetS severity revealed that MetS severity was more highly associated with disease risk among those in the lowest quintiles of risk score, suggesting that MetS was particularly able to identify risk among individuals judged to be of low risk by existing algorithms.

CONCLUSIONS

Mets severity improved prediction of diabetes more so than CHD. Incorporation of multiple risk predictors into electronic health records may help in better identifying those at high disease risk, who can then be placed earlier on preventative therapy.

Early Onset Obesity and Risk of Metabolic Syndrome Among Chilean Adolescents

INTRODUCTION

Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) indicators have increased globally among the pediatric population. MetS indicators in the young elevate their risk of cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders later in life. This study examined early onset obesity as a risk factor for MetS risk in adolescence.

METHODS

A cohort of Chilean participants (N = 673) followed from infancy was assessed at age 5 years and in adolescence (mean age, 16.8 y). Adiposity was measured at both time points; blood pressure and fasting blood samples were assessed in adolescence only. Early onset obesity was defined as a World Health Organization z score of 2 standard deviations (SDs) or more for body mass index (BMI) at age 5 years. We used linear regression to examine the association between early onset obesity and adolescent MetS risk z score, adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

Eighteen percent of participants had early onset obesity, and 50% of these remained obese in adolescence. Mean MetS risk z score in adolescence was significantly higher among those with early onset obesity than among those without (1.0; SD, 0.8 vs 0.2; SD, 0.8 [P < .001]). In the multivariable model, early onset obesity independently contributed to a higher MetS risk score in adolescence (β = 0.27, P < .001), controlling for obesity status at adolescence and sex, and explained 39% of the variance in MetS risk.

CONCLUSION

Early onset obesity as young as age 5 years relates to higher MetS risk.

Metabolic risk factors in nondiabetic adolescents with glomerular hyperfiltration

BACKGROUND

In adults, glomerular hyperfiltration is associated with abnormalities related to metabolic syndrome (MetS). We investigated if glomerular hyperfiltration was associated with metabolic abnormalities in US adolescents without diabetes.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a nationally representative sample of US adolescents ages 12-17 years. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was determined using the bedside Schwartz equation; adolescents with hyperfiltration (eGFR >120 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) were compared to those with normal eGFR (90-120 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ). We calculated mean levels of factors related to MetS, insulin resistance and diabetes risk, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, sex, socioeconomic status, and BMI z -score.

RESULTS

Overall, 11.8% of US adolescents had hyperfiltration [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.6-13.0]. Hyperfiltration prevalence varied by race (20.2% in Hispanics versus 9.8% non-Hispanic whites and 7.4% non-Hispanic blacks; P< 0.001). Compared to those with normal eGFR, adolescents with hyperfiltration had higher adjusted mean levels of triglyceride (83 versus 77 mg/dL; P = 0.05), fasting insulin (15.1 versus 12.9; P< 0.001) and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (3.52 versus 3.01; P = 0.001). These differences persisted after adjusting for BMI z- score. Adolescents with hyperfiltration had increased odds for hypertriglyceridemia [odds ratio 1.58 (95% CI 1.11-2.23)]. These relationships varied by racial/ethnic group.

CONCLUSIONS

Glomerular hyperfiltration is associated with hypertriglyceridemia and increased insulin resistance independent of BMI z- score in a nationally representative sample of US adolescents. Hispanic adolescents are more likely to have hyperfiltration than other racial/ethnic groups. These findings could have significance in evaluations of renal function and MetS in adolescents to identify related risks and target interventions.

Independent associations between a metabolic syndrome severity score and future diabetes by sex and race: the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities Study and Jackson Heart Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The study aimed to assess for an association between the degree of severity of the metabolic syndrome and risk of type 2 diabetes beyond that conferred by the individual components of the metabolic syndrome.

METHODS

We assessed HRs for an Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) metabolic syndrome score (ATP-III MetS) and a sex- and race-specific continuous metabolic syndrome severity z score related to incident diabetes over a median of 7.8 years of follow-up among participants of two observational cohorts, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (n = 10,957) and the Jackson Heart Study (n = 2137).

RESULTS

The ATP-III MetS had an HR for incident diabetes of 4.36 (95% CI 3.83, 4.97), which was attenuated in models that included the individual metabolic syndrome components. By contrast, participants in the fourth quartile of metabolic syndrome severity (compared with the first quartile) had an HR of 17.4 (95% CI 12.6, 24.1) for future diabetes; in models that also included the individual metabolic syndrome components, this remained significant, with an HR of 3.69 (95% CI 2.42, 5.64). There was a race × metabolic syndrome interaction in these models such that HR was greater for black participants (5.30) than white participants (2.24). When the change in metabolic syndrome severity score was included in the hazard models, this conferred a further association, with changes in metabolic syndrome severity score of ≥0.5 having a HR of 2.66 compared with changes in metabolic syndrome severity score of ≤0.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Use of a continuous sex- and race-specific metabolic syndrome severity z score provided an additional prediction of risk of diabetes beyond that of the individual metabolic syndrome components, suggesting an added risk conferred by the processes underlying the metabolic syndrome. Increases in this score over time were associated with further risk, supporting the potential clinical utility of following metabolic syndrome severity over time.

Examining trends in prediabetes and its relationship with the metabolic syndrome in US adolescents, 1999-2014

AIMS

We sought to investigate temporal trends in prediabetes prevalence among US adolescents using two definitions and evaluate relationships with obesity and a MetS-severity score.

METHODS

We evaluated data from 5418 non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic adolescents aged 12-19 participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2014 with complete data regarding MetS and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Prediabetes status was defined by American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria: fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL or HbA1c 5.7%-6.4%. MetS severity was assessed with a MetS-severity Z-score.

RESULTS

Prevalence of prediabetes as defined by HbA1c abnormalities significantly increased from 1999-2014, while prevalence of prediabetes as defined by fasting glucose abnormalities showed no significant temporal trend. There were variations in these trends across different racial/ethnic groups. MetS Z-score was overall more strongly correlated with HbA1c, fasting insulin, and the homeostasis model of insulin resistance than was BMI Z-score. These correlations were true in each racial/ethnic group with the exception that in non-Hispanic white adolescents, in whom the MetS Z-score was not significantly correlated with HbA1c measurements.

CONCLUSION

We found conflicting findings of temporal trends of US adolescent prediabetes prevalence based on the ADA's prediabetes criteria. The increasing prevalence of prediabetes by HbA1c assessment is concerning and raises the urgency for increased awareness and appropriate measures of prediabetes status among physicians and patients.

Heritability of the Severity of the Metabolic Syndrome in Whites and Blacks in 3 Large Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Although dichotomous criteria for the metabolic syndrome (MetS) appear heritable, it is not known whether MetS severity as assessed by a continuous MetS score is heritable and whether this varies by race.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used SOLAR (Sequential Oligogenic Linkage Analysis Routines) to evaluate heritability of Adult Treatment Panel-III MetS and a sex- and race-specific MetS severity Z score among 3 large familial cohorts: the JHS (Jackson Heart Study, 1404 black participants), TOPS (Take Off Pounds Sensibly, 1947 white participants), and PLRS (Princeton Lipid Research Study, 229 black and 527 white participants). Heritability estimates were larger for Adult Treatment Panel-III MetS among black compared with white cohort members (JHS 0.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28-0.68 and PLRS blacks 0.93 [95% CI, 0.73-1.13] versus TOPS 0.21 [95% CI, -0.18 to 0.60] and PLRS whites 0.27 [95% CI, -0.04 to 0.58]). The difference by race narrowed when assessing heritability of the MetS severity score (JHS 0.52 [95% CI, 0.38, 0.66] and PLRS blacks 0.64 [95% CI, 0.13-1.15] versus TOPS 0.23 [95% CI, 0.15-0.31] and PLRS whites 0.60 [95% CI, 0.33-0.87]). There was a high degree of genetic and phenotypic correlation between MetS severity and the individual components of MetS among all groups, although the genetic correlations failed to reach statistical significance among PLRS blacks. Meta-analyses revealed a combined heritability estimate for Adult Treatment Panel-III MetS of 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11-0.36) and for the MetS severity score of 0.50 (95% CI, -0.05 to 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

MetS severity seems highly heritable among whites and blacks. This continuous MetS severity Z score may provide a more useful means of characterizing phenotypic MetS in genetic studies by minimizing racial differences.

Correlation of metabolic syndrome severity with cardiovascular health markers in adolescents

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in childhood is a significant risk factor for later cardiovascular disease (CVD). Recent data showed temporal decreases in a sex- and race/ethnicity-specific MetS severity z-score among U.S. adolescents. Our goal was to characterize the relationship of this MetS z-score with other CVD risk indicators and assess their temporal trends and lifestyle influences.

METHODS

We analyzed 4837 participants aged 12-20years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey by 2-year waves from 1999 to 2012. We used linear regression to compare MetS z-score and dietary factors with serum levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL), apolipoprotein-B (ApoB), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and uric acid.

RESULTS

MetS severity z-score was positively correlated with LDL, ApoB, hsCRP, and uric acid measurements (p<0.0001 for all). These correlations held true among individual racial/ethnic groups. LDL, ApoB, and hsCRP measurements decreased over time among U.S. adolescents (p=0.002, p<0.0001, and p=0.024, respectively). Saturated fat consumption was positively correlated with LDL (p=0.005) and ApoB (p=0.012) and inversely related to serum uric acid (p=0.001). Total caloric intake was inversely related to LDL (p=0.003) and serum uric acid (p=0.003). Unsaturated fat, carbohydrate, and protein consumption were not related to LDL, ApoB, hsCRP, or serum uric acid.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a positive correlation between MetS severity and all four CVD risk indicators studied. LDL, ApoB, and hsCRP showed favorable temporal trends, which could be related to similar trends in MetS z-score. These data support the importance of considering multiple inter-related factors in clinical CVD risk assessment.

Clinical utility of metabolic syndrome severity scores: considerations for practitioners

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is marked by abnormalities in central obesity, high blood pressure, high triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high fasting glucose and appears to be produced by underlying processes of inflammation, oxidative stress, and adipocyte dysfunction. MetS has traditionally been classified based on dichotomous criteria that deny that MetS-related risk likely exists as a spectrum. Continuous MetS scores provide a way to track MetS-related risk over time. We generated MetS severity scores that are sex- and race/ethnicity-specific, acknowledging that the way MetS is manifested may be different by sex and racial/ethnic subgroup. These scores are correlated with long-term risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Clinical use of scores like these provide a potential opportunity to identify patients at highest risk, motivate patients toward lifestyle change, and follow treatment progress over time.

Active vs. sedentary lifestyle from weaning to adulthood and susceptibility to ozone in rats

The prevalence of a sedentary (SED) life style combined with calorically rich diets has spurred the rise in childhood obesity, which, in turn, translates to adverse health effects in adulthood. Obesity and lack of active (ACT) lifestyle may increase susceptibility to air pollutants. We housed 22-day-old female Long-Evans rats in a cage without (SED) or with a running wheel (ACT). After 10 wk the rats ran 310 ± 16.3 km. Responses of SED and ACT rats to whole-body O₃ (0, 0.25, 0.5, or 1.0 ppm; 5 h/day for 2 days) was assessed. Glucose tolerance testing (GTT) was performed following the first day of O₃ ACT rats had less body fat and an improved glucose GTT. Ventilatory function (plethysmography) of SED and ACT groups was similarly impaired by O₃ Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) was collected after the second O₃ exposure. SED and ACT rats were hyperglycemic following 1.0 ppm O₃ GTT was impaired by O₃ in both groups; however, ACT rats exhibited improved recovery to 0.25 and 1.0 ppm O₃ BALF cell neutrophils and total cells were similarly increased in ACT and SED groups exposed to 1.0 ppm O₃ O₃-induced increase in eosinophils was exacerbated in SED rats. Chronic exercise from postweaning to adulthood improved some of the metabolic and pulmonary responses to O₃ (GTT and eosinophils) but several other parameters were unaffected. The reduction in O₃-induced rise in BALF eosinophils in ACT rats suggests a possible link between a SED lifestyle and incidence of asthma-related symptoms from O₃.

Metabolic syndrome severity score: range and associations with cardiovascular risk factors

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score (MSSS) is a new clinical prediction rule (CPR) for diagnostic and therapeutic decisions and employs available components (sex, age, race, systolic blood pressure, waistline circumference, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides and fasting blood glucose). The aim of our work was to perform cross-sectional pilot trial on middle-aged healthy volunteers and patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) for studying feasibility and implementation of MSSS and its associations with cardiovascular risk factors.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We approached 64 eligible participants from Bulgaria. The MSSS values, together with demographic, anthropometric, medical history, laboratory findings, CVD risk factors, QRISK2 score for 10-year cardiovascular risk and predicted heart age, were analysed. Descriptive statistics with tests for comparison (e.g., t-test, χ2) between groups as well as ANOVA and logistic regression were applied.

RESULTS

We analysed data from 56 participants (aged 50.11 ±3.43 years). The MSSS was higher in MetS patients (including 6 T2DM patients) than in controls (n = 29; 51.8%) presented as percentiles (69.97% and 34.41%, respectively) and z-scores (0.60 and -0.45, respectively) (p < 0.05). The logistic regression model of MSSS indicated a positive association with MetS/T2DM cases (correctness > 85%, p < 0.01). For further validation purposes, positive correlations of MSSS with CVD risk factor as diastolic blood pressure (Rho = 0.399; p < 0.003) and QRISK2 score (Rho = 0.524; p < 0.001) or predicted heart age (Rho = 0.368; p < 0.007) were also found.

CONCLUSIONS

The pilot study of MSSS in Bulgaria indicated feasibility and consistency of its implementation among patients with metabolic syndrome and/or T2DM and healthy volunteers.

Inter-relationships between the severity of metabolic syndrome, insulin and adiponectin and their relationship to future type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

The severity of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is related to future incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the relationship between MetS severity and levels of fasting insulin and adiponectin-markers of insulin resistance-is unclear.

METHODS

We used linear and logistic regression to analyze data from 711 participants of the Princeton Lipid Research Cohort with information regarding levels of insulin, adiponectin and MetS severity during 1998-2003 (mean age 39.5 years); 595 participants had MetS severity data from childhood (1973-1976, mean age 12.9 years) and 417 had updated disease status from 2010 to 2014 (mean age 50.9 years).

RESULTS

Childhood MetS Z-scores were positively associated with adult insulin levels (P<0.001) and negatively associated with adiponectin levels (P=0.01). In individual analyses, higher insulin levels and MetS Z-score as adults were related to higher odds of incident diabetes and CVD over the next 11.2 years (all P<0.001), whereas lower adiponectin levels were only related to odds of future T2DM (P<0.0001). In a model including insulin, adiponectin and MetS Z-score, adiponectin was not linked to future disease; both insulin (P=0.027) and MetS Z-score (P=0.002) were related to risk of future T2DM, while only MetS Z-score was related to future CVD (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of MetS exhibits long-term links to levels of insulin and adiponectin, suggesting potential genetic and environmental influences on insulin resistance over time. As a long-term predictor of T2DM and CVD, the severity of MetS exhibited consistent independent correlations. This supports clinical utility in evaluating MetS severity as a predictor of risk for future disease.

Progression of Metabolic Syndrome Severity During the Menopausal Transition

Background

After menopause, women exhibit a higher prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and higher risk of cardiovascular disease. However, the timing of changes in MetS severity over the menopausal transition and whether these changes differ by racial/ethnic group remain unclear.

Methods and Results

We assessed data from 1470 women from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort who experienced transition in menopausal status over 10 years (visits 1–4). We used linear mixed models to evaluate changes by menopausal status (premenopause, perimenopause, and postmenopause) in a MetS severity Z‐score and in the individual MetS components. While there were gradual increases in MetS severity over time across menopause stages, black women in particular exhibited more rapid progression in MetS severity during the premenopausal and perimenopausal periods than during the postmenopausal period. In the postmenopausal period (compared with prior periods), white women exhibited unfavorable decreases in high‐density lipoprotein, while black women exhibited favorable alterations in the rate of change for waist circumference, triglycerides, high‐density lipoprotein, and glucose, contributing to the slowed progression of MetS severity. These changes were all observed after adjusting for hormone replacement treatment.

Conclusions

During menopausal transition, women exhibited rapid increases in MetS severity during the premenopausal and perimenopausal periods, with black women having significant reductions in this increase in severity during the postmenopausal period. These data suggest that the higher prevalence of MetS in postmenopausal women may be caused more by changes during the menopausal transition than by postmenopause. These findings may thus have implications regarding the timing of cardiovascular risk relative to menopause.

Data regarding association between serum osteoprotegerin level, numerous of circulating endothelial-derived and mononuclear-derived progenitor cells in patients with metabolic syndrome

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is defined as cluster of multiple metabolic and cardiovascular (CV) abnormalities included abdominal obesity, high-normal blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and impaired fasting glucose tolerance that exhibits has a growing prevalence worldwide. We investigated whether an elevated level of osteoprotegerin (OPG) predicts imbalance between different phenotypes of circulating endothelial (EPCs) and mononuclear (MPCs) progenitor cells in MetS patients. We have analyzed data regarding dysmetabolic disorder subjects without known CV disease), as well as with known type two diabetes mellitus. All patients have given their informed written consent for participation in the study. This article contains data on the independent predictors of depletion in numerous of circulating EPCs and MPCs in MetS patients. The data are supplemental to our original research article describing detailed associations of elevated OPG level in MetS patients with numerous of EPCs and MPCs beyond traditional CV risk factors.

Depressive symptoms are associated with worsened severity of the metabolic syndrome in African American women independent of lifestyle factors: A consideration of mechanistic links from the Jackson heart study

BACKGROUND

Depression and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) are both risk factors for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Prior studies in predominantly White populations demonstrated that individuals with depressive symptoms at baseline are more likely to develop future MetS. We tested the hypothesis that depressive symptoms would contribute to a more pronounced increase in MetS severity among African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS).

METHODS

We used repeated-measures modeling among 1743 JHS participants during Visits 1-3 over 8 years of follow-up to evaluate relations between depressive symptom score (Center for Epidemiologic Survey-Depression (CES-D)) at baseline and a sex- and race/ethnicity-specific MetS severity Z-score at each visit.

RESULTS

20.3% of participants had a CES-D score ≥16, consistent with clinically-relevant depressive symptoms. Higher depressive-symptom scores were associated with higher MetS severity in women but not men (p=0.005 vs. p=0.490). There was no difference by depressive symptom score with rate of change in MetS severity over time. Both depressive-symptom score and MetS severity Z-score were associated with lower levels of physical activity and higher levels of C-reactive protein; however, addition of these to the regression model did not attenuate the association between depressive symptoms and MetS severity.

CONCLUSION

African American women but not men in the JHS exhibit relationships between baseline depressive symptoms and MetS severity over an 8-year period. These data may have implications for targeting of MetS-associated lifestyle changes among individuals with depressive symptoms.

Citrus Flavonoids as Regulators of Lipoprotein Metabolism and Atherosclerosis

Citrus flavonoids are polyphenolic compounds with significant biological properties. This review summarizes recent advances in understanding the ability of citrus flavonoids to modulate lipid metabolism, other metabolic parameters related to the metabolic syndrome, and atherosclerosis. Citrus flavonoids, including naringenin, hesperitin, nobiletin, and tangeretin, have emerged as potential therapeutics for the treatment of metabolic dysregulation. Epidemiological studies reveal an association between the intake of citrus flavonoid-containing foods and a decreased incidence of cardiovascular disease. Studies in cell culture and animal models, as well as a limited number of clinical studies, reveal the lipid-lowering, insulin-sensitizing, antihypertensive, and anti-inflammatory properties of citrus flavonoids. In animal models, supplementation of rodent diets with citrus flavonoids prevents hepatic steatosis, dyslipidemia, and insulin resistance primarily through inhibition of hepatic fatty acid synthesis and increased fatty acid oxidation. Citrus flavonoids blunt the inflammatory response in metabolically important tissues including liver, adipose, kidney, and the aorta. The mechanisms underlying flavonoid-induced metabolic regulation have not been completely established, although several potential targets have been identified. In mouse models, citrus flavonoids show marked suppression of atherogenesis through improved metabolic parameters as well as through direct impact on the vessel wall. Recent studies support a role for citrus flavonoids in the treatment of dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, hepatic steatosis, obesity, and atherosclerosis. Larger human studies examining dose, bioavailability, efficacy, and safety are required to promote the development of these promising therapeutic agents.

Trends in Metabolic Syndrome Severity and Lifestyle Factors Among Adolescents

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Childhood metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a risk factor for adverse outcomes later in life. Our goal was to identify temporal trends among US adolescents in the severity of MetS, its individual components, and factors related to diet and physical activity.

METHODS

We analyzed 5117 participants aged 12 to 19 from NHANES. We used regression analysis of individual waves of data, 1999 to 2012. MetS severity was calculated using a gender- and race/ethnicity-specific MetS severity z score.

RESULTS

There was a linear trend of decreasing MetS severity in US adolescents from 1999 to 2012 (P = .030). This occurred despite a trend of increasing BMI z score (P = .005); instead, the decrease in MetS severity appeared to be due to trends in increasing high-density lipoprotein (HDL; P < .0001) and decreasing triglyceride (P = .0001) levels. In considering lifestyle factors, there was no change in physical activity over the time period. Regarding dietary patterns, total calorie consumption and carbohydrate consumption were positively associated with triglyceride levels and negatively associated with HDL levels, whereas unsaturated fat consumption exhibited the opposite associations. Consistent with these associations, there was a trend of decreasing total calorie consumption (P < .0001), decreasing carbohydrate consumption (P < .0001), and increasing unsaturated fat consumption (P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

The healthier trend of declining MetS severity in adolescents appeared to be due to favorable increases in HDL and decreases in fasting triglyceride measurements. These were in turn associated with favorable changes in dietary patterns among US adolescents. Future studies should investigate the causality of dietary differences on changes in MetS severity in adolescents.

The severity of the metabolic syndrome increases over time within individuals, independent of baseline metabolic syndrome status and medication use: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The severity of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is linked to future cardiovascular disease. However, it is unclear whether MetS severity increases among individuals followed over time.

METHODS

We assessed changes in a sex- and race/ethnicity-specific MetS severity Z-score over a 10-year period (visits 1-4) among 9291 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study cohort. We compared sex- and racial/ethnic subgroups for the rate of change in the MetS severity score and MetS prevalence as assessed using traditional ATP-III MetS criteria. We further examined effects of use of medications for hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia.

RESULTS

Over the 10 years of follow-up, MetS severity Z-scores increased in 76% of participants from an overall mean of 0.08 ± 0.77 at baseline to 0.48 ± 0.96 at visit 4 with the greatest progression in scores observed among African-American women. Baseline MetS severity scores predicted the time until ATP-III MetS diagnosis, with a model-predicted 77.5% of individuals with a visit 1 MetS severity score of 0.75 progressing to ATP-III MetS within 10 years. The rate of increase in MetS severity score was higher among those younger at baseline but was independent of baseline MetS status or the use of medications to treat blood pressure, lipids and diabetes.

CONCLUSION

The severity of metabolic derangements as measured using this MetS severity score increases over time within individuals and predicts diagnosis of ATP-III MetS. These data may have implications for tracking MetS related risk within individuals over time.