A systematic review of intervention thresholds based on FRAX : A report prepared for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group and the International Osteoporosis Foundation

Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is high following a first fracture and higher still with more than one prior fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the number of prior fractures.

INTRODUCTION

Prior fractures increase subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the number of prior fractures on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX®.

METHODS

The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were determined according to the number of prior osteoporotic fractures over a 20-year interval from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were also computed for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of the number of previous fractures. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures.

RESULTS

Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture and MOF increased with the number of prior fractures but decreased with age in both men and women. Probability ratios were similar in men and women and for hip fracture and MOF. Mean probability ratios according to the number of prior fractures for all scenarios were 0.95, 1.08, 1.21 and 1.35, for 1,2, 3 and 4 or more prior fractures, respectively. Thus, a simple rule of thumb is to downward adjust FRAX-based fracture probabilities by 5% in the presence of a single prior fracture and to uplift probabilities by 10, 20 and 30% with a history of 2, 3 and 4 or more prior fractures, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures.

Comparison of Trabecular Bone Score-Adjusted Fracture Risk Assessment (TBS-FRAX) and FRAX Tools for Identification of High Fracture Risk among Taiwanese Adults Aged 50 to 90 Years with or without Prediabetes and Diabetes

Background and Objectives: The burden of osteoporosis is projected to increase. Identification and prompt intervention for osteoporotic fractures are important. Adjusting the Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX®) tool with trabecular bone score (TBS) could improve risk prediction. However, little is known about whether TBS-adjusted FRAX® would change the proportion of individuals qualified for osteoporosis intervention. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to compare the proportions of Taiwanese adults who qualified for intervention, according to the FRAX® and TBS-adjusted FRAX®, with stratification by sex, age group, and glucose regulation status. Materials and Methods: A medical record review on adults 50−90 years who had undergone a general health examination in a regional hospital in Taiwan was conducted. FRAX® and TBS-adjusted FRAX® were calculated. FRAX® cut-points of ≥ 20% for major osteoporotic fracture and ≥3% for hip fracture were adopted to identify individuals qualified for osteoporosis intervention. Individuals were classified as prediabetes and diabetes if their HbA1c was 5.7−6.4% and >6.4%, respectively. Results: A total of 8098 individuals with a mean age of 61.0 years were included. The proportion of men qualified for intervention for hip fracture was significantly lower according to TBS-adjusted FRAX® (17.2%) compared with FRAX® (20.7%) (p < 0.001), with a similar pattern across all three age groups and in those with prediabetes. In contrast, the proportion of women qualified for intervention for major osteoporotic fracture was significantly higher according to TBS-adjusted FRAX® (4.6%) compared with FRAX® (3.7%) (p < 0.001), particularly among those with prediabetes 60−69 years. Conclusions: TBS-adjusted FRAX® led to small but significant changes in the proportions of individuals qualified for intervention in specific age groups and glucose regulation status.

Improving bone health in prostate cancer patients starting androgen deprivation therapy: does Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) enhance stratification and targeted management?

Androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer can lead to osteoporosis and increased fracture risk. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) questionnaire can be used for risk stratification, and our study has demonstrated that the majority of men (91%) in our cohort commencing ADT for prostate cancer were considered low risk for future osteoporotic fracture.

PURPOSE/INTRODUCTION

Long-term use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in prostate cancer patients results in increased bone turnover and decreased bone mineral density (BMD). Proper assessment of any existing osteoporotic fracture risk is crucial prior to starting treatment. However, this risk assessment is poorly performed in these patients in spite of available validated tools including the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®). The objective of this study was to assess the distribution of osteoporotic fracture risk in a cohort of men commencing ADT for prostate cancer using the FRAX® algorithm.

METHODS

Between July 2020 and May 2022, 200 men filled in the FRAX® questionnaire just before ADT. They were stratified into the high-risk (> 20% probability of a MOF over the next 10 years), intermediate-, and low-risk categories for fragility fractures. We also measured their serum vitamin D and calcium levels.

RESULTS

The average age was 73.5 years (54-89). It took less than 10 min to complete the assessment. Only six patients were at high-risk, were started on bisphosphonates immediately, and referred for a dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scan. Twelve patients in the intermediate-risk category were referred for DEXA scans for bone mineral density measurements. A total of 182 patients (91%), were in the low-risk category and given lifestyle advice only. All had normal calcium levels but 134 (67%) patients, mostly in the low-risk category, had reduced vitamin D levels (< 50 nmol/L).

CONCLUSION

The FRAX® questionnaire is simple and immediately identifies patients who are at risk of fragility fractures. Our study has demonstrated that the majority of men (91%) in our cohort commencing ADT for prostate cancer were considered low risk for future osteoporotic fracture. We were surprised that more than half of our patients had low vitamin D levels.

Definition and management of very high fracture risk in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis: a position statement from the Brazilian Society of Endocrinology and Metabolism (SBEM) and the Brazilian Association of Bone Assessment and Metabolism (ABRASSO)

Several drugs are available for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Over the last decades, most patients requiring pharmacological intervention were offered antiresorptive drugs as first-line therapy, while anabolic agents were considered a last resource for those with therapeutic failure. However, recent randomized trials in patients with severe osteoporosis have shown that anabolic agents reduce fractures to a greater extent than antiresorptive medications. Additionally, evidence indicates that increases in bone mineral density (BMD) are maximized when patients are treated with anabolic agents first, followed by antiresorptive therapy. This evidence is key, considering that greater increases in BMD during osteoporosis treatment are associated with a more pronounced reduction in fracture risk. Thus, international guidelines have recently proposed an individualized approach to osteoporosis treatment based on fracture risk stratification, in which the stratification risk has been refined to include a category of patients at very high risk of fracture who should be managed with anabolic agents as first-line therapy. In this document, the Brazilian Society of Endocrinology and Metabolism and the Brazilian Association of Bone Assessment and Metabolism propose the definition of very high risk of osteoporotic fracture in postmenopausal women, for whom anabolic agents should be considered as first-line therapy. This document also reviews the factors associated with increased fracture risk, trials comparing anabolic versus antiresorptive agents, efficacy of anabolic agents in patients who are treatment naïve versus those previously treated with antiresorptive agents, and safety of anabolic agents.

Osteoporosis treatment in Austria-assessment of FRAX-based intervention thresholds for high and very high fracture risk

The adoption of the management pathway proposed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), UK applied using the Austrian FRAX® tool in a referral population of Austrian women categorises 22-29% of women age 40 years or more eligible for treatment of whom 28-34% are classified at very high risk.

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to provide a reference document for the further development of existing guidelines for the management of osteoporosis in Austria, considering FRAX-based intervention thresholds for high and very high fracture risk.

METHODS

The model development was based on two Austrian hospital referral cohorts. Baseline information was collected to compute the 10-year probability (using the Austrian FRAX model) of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture both with and without the inclusion of femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Assessment thresholds for BMD testing were defined, as well as intervention thresholds. In addition, thresholds that characterise men and women at high and very high fracture risk were established. The management pathway followed that currently recommended by the UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG).

RESULTS

The two cohorts comprised a total of 1306 women and men with a mean age of 66.7 years. Slightly more than 50% were eligible for treatment by virtue of a prior fragility fracture. In those women without a prior fracture, 22% (n = 120) were eligible for treatment based on MOF probabilities. Of these, 28% (n = 33) were found to be at very high risk. When both MOF and hip fracture probabilities were used to characterise risk, 164 women without a prior fracture were eligible for treatment (29%). Of these, 34% (n = 56) were found to be at very high risk. Fewer men without prior fracture were eligible for treatment compared with women.

CONCLUSION

The management pathway as currently outlined is expected to reduce inequalities in patient management. The characterisation of very high risk may aid in the identification of patients suitable for treatment with osteoanabolic agents.

Menopausal hormone therapy reduces the risk of fracture regardless of falls risk or baseline FRAX probability-results from the Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials

In a combined analysis of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years, enrolled in the two Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials, menopausal hormone therapy vs. placebo reduced the risk of fracture regardless of baseline FRAX fracture probability and falls history.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to determine if the anti-fracture efficacy of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) differed by baseline falls history or fracture risk probability as estimated by FRAX, in a combined analysis of the two Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy trials.

METHODS

A total of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years were randomized to receive MHT (n = 12,739) or matching placebo (n = 12,650). At baseline, questionnaires were used to collect information on falls history, within the last 12 months, and clinical risk factors. FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) was calculated without BMD. Incident clinical fractures were verified using medical records. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between treatment and fractures in (1) the whole cohort; (2) those with prior falls; and (3) those without prior falls. The effect of baseline FRAX probability on efficacy was investigated in the whole cohort.

RESULTS

Over 4.3 ± 2.1 years (mean ± SD), MHT (vs. placebo) significantly reduced the risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72 [95% CI, 0.65-0.78]), MOF (HR 0.60 [95% CI, 0.53-0.69]), and hip fracture (0.66 [95% CI, 0.45-0.96]). Treatment was effective in reducing the risk of any clinical fracture, MOF, and hip fracture in women regardless of baseline FRAX MOF probability, with no evidence of an interaction between MHT and FRAX (p > 0.30). Similarly, there was no interaction (p > 0.30) between MHT and prior falls.

CONCLUSION

In the combined WHI trials, compared to placebo, MHT reduces fracture risk regardless of FRAX probability and falls history in postmenopausal women.

A Mini Review on Osteoporosis: From Biology to Pharmacological Management of Bone Loss

Osteoporosis refers to excessive bone loss as reflected by the deterioration of bone mass and microarchitecture, which compromises bone strength. It is a complex multifactorial endocrine disease. Its pathogenesis relies on the presence of several endogenous and exogenous risk factors, which skew the physiological bone remodelling to a more catabolic process that results in net bone loss. This review aims to provide an overview of osteoporosis from its biology, epidemiology and clinical aspects (detection and pharmacological management). The review will serve as an updated reference for readers to understand the basics of osteoporosis and take action to prevent and manage this disease.

[Preventive activities in women. PAPPS update 2022]

In the 2022 PAPPS update we present those specific preventive activities for women's health, except those related to cancer prevention (which are included in another document) and those aspects related to differential gender morbidity, a cross-cutting aspect for all working groups. Contraception is an essential preventive activity, considering basic the right to decide both the number of children and the time to have them. We must inform about the possible contraceptive methods, guaranteeing the monitoring of their safety, efficacy and effectiveness (tables are included on changing from one method to another to preserve contraceptive protection). We must inform about emergency contraception and propose it in the event of unprotected intercourse. All this will be done through opportunistic screening without requiring screening for thrombophilia or dyslipidemia, but for arterial hypertension. Pregnancy is an important life experience and the family doctor should not remain oblivious. We must be competent both in the preconception consultation (recommending the intake of folic acid, avoiding exposure to occupational and environmental risks, screening for certain pathologies and assessing the intake of drugs not indicated during pregnancy) and in the monitoring of pregnancy. Whether or not we monitor the pregnancy, we must not disregard its control, taking advantage of this period to promote healthy lifestyles and participating in the intercurrent processes that may occur. Menopause in general and osteoporosis in particular exemplify the strategy of medicalization of vital processes that has been followed from different instances and organizations. In our update we address the prevention and treatment of symptoms secondary to estrogen deprivation. We also propose the prevention of osteoporosis, including carrying out densitometry based on the risk of fracture in the next 10 years, and therefore densitometric screening is not recommended in women under 60 years of age. In risk assessment we recommend the use of the frax tool or better, the calibration of the risk of hip fracture with prevalence data from our setting. We linked the indication for treatment with the Z-Score (bone mineral density compared with women of the same age), as it is a condition associated with aging.

The clinician's guide to prevention and treatment of osteoporosis

Osteoporosis is the most common metabolic bone disease in the USA and the world. It is a subclinical condition until complicated by fracture(s). These fractures place an enormous medical and personal burden on individuals who suffer from them and take a significant economic toll. Any new fracture in an adult aged 50 years or older signifies imminent elevated risk for subsequent fractures, particularly in the year following the initial fracture. What a patient perceives as an unfortunate accident may be seen as a sentinel event indicative of bone fragility and increased future fracture risk even when the result of considerable trauma. Clinical or subclinical vertebral fractures, the most common type of osteoporotic fractures, are associated with a 5-fold increased risk for additional vertebral fractures and a 2- to 3-fold increased risk for fractures at other sites. Untreated osteoporosis can lead to a vicious cycle of recurrent fracture(s), often resulting in disability and premature death. In appropriate patients, treatment with effective antifracture medication prevents fractures and improves outcomes. Primary care providers and medical specialists are critical gatekeepers who can identify fractures and initiate proven osteoporosis interventions. Osteoporosis detection, diagnosis, and treatment should be routine practice in all adult healthcare settings. The Bone Health and Osteoporosis Foundation (BHOF) - formerly the National Osteoporosis Foundation - first published the Clinician's Guide in 1999 to provide accurate information on osteoporosis prevention and treatment. Since that time, significant improvements have been made in diagnostic technologies and treatments for osteoporosis. Despite these advances, a disturbing gap persists in patient care. At-risk patients are often not screened to establish fracture probability and not educated about fracture prevention. Most concerning, the majority of highest risk women and men who have a fracture(s) are not diagnosed and do not receive effective, FDA-approved therapies. Even those prescribed appropriate therapy are unlikely to take the medication as prescribed. The Clinician's Guide offers concise recommendations regarding prevention, risk assessment, diagnosis, and treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women and men aged 50 years and older. It includes indications for bone densitometry as well as fracture risk thresholds for pharmacologic intervention. Current medications build bone and/or decrease bone breakdown and dramatically reduce incident fractures. All antifracture therapeutics treat but do not cure the disease. Skeletal deterioration resumes sooner or later when a medication is discontinued-sooner for nonbisphosphonates and later for bisphosphonates. Even if normal BMD is achieved, osteoporosis and elevated risk for fracture are still present. The diagnosis of osteoporosis persists even if subsequent DXA T-scores are above - 2.5. Ongoing monitoring and strategic interventions will be necessary if fractures are to be avoided. In addition to pharmacotherapy, adequate intake of calcium and vitamin D, avoidance of smoking and excessive alcohol intake, weight-bearing and resistance-training exercise, and fall prevention are included in the fracture prevention armamentarium. Where possible, recommendations in this guide are based on evidence from RCTs; however, relevant published data and guidance from expert clinical experience provides the basis for recommendations in those areas where RCT evidence is currently deficient or not applicable to the many osteoporosis patients not considered for RCT participation due to age and morbidity.

Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors.

METHODS

A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible.

RESULTS

Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed.

CONCLUSIONS

These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266)).

Osteoporosis in 2022: Care gaps to screening and personalised medicine

Osteoporosis care has evolved markedly over the last 50 years, such that there are now an established clinical definition, validated methods of fracture risk assessment, and a range of effective pharmacological agents. However, it is apparent that both in the context of primary and secondary fracture prevention, there is a considerable gap between the population at high fracture risk and those actually receiving appropriate antiosteoporosis treatment. In this narrative review article, we document recent work describing the burden of disease, approaches to management, and service provision across Europe, emerging data on gaps in care, and existing/new ways in which these gaps may be addressed at the level of healthcare systems and policy. We conclude that although the field has come a long way in recent decades, there is still a long way to go, and a concerted, integrated effort is now required from all of us involved in this field to address these urgent issues to ensure the best possible outcomes for our patients.

Computed tomography-based paravertebral muscle density predicts subsequent vertebral fracture risks independently of bone mineral density in postmenopausal women following percutaneous vertebral augmentation

BACKGROUND

The risk of subsequent vertebral fractures (SVF) after the primary vertebral fracture cannot be explained by lower bone mineral density (BMD) alone. Computed tomography (CT) measurements of paravertebral muscle density (PMD) are recognized radiographic markers used to predict physical function, fragile fractures.

AIMS

This study aims to investigate the relationship between PMD and the risk of SVF in cohorts of postmenopausal women, and to determine if combining both PMD and BMD measures derived from CT can improve the accuracy of predicting SVF.

METHODS

This study enrolled 305 postmenopausal women between the ages of 50 and 88 for 3 years of follow-up studies. Trabecular attenuation (Hounsfield units, HU) was measured at L1 level and muscle attenuation of paravertebral muscle at L3 level on preoperative lumbar CT scans to determine the L1 BMD and L3 PMD. Kaplan-Meier analysis was applied to evaluate SVF-free survival. The hazard ratios (HRs) of PMD for SVF events were estimated with the Cox proportional hazards model. The predictive values of L1 BMD and L3 PMD for SVF were quantified using the Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULT

During the 3 years of follow-up studies, 88 patients (28.9%) suffered an SVF. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that an L3 PMD threshold of 32 HU had a sensitivity of 89.8% and a specificity of 62% for the prediction of SVF. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that L3 PMD ≤ 32 HU was significantly associated with lower SVF-free survival (p < 0.001; log-rank test). After adjusting for age, BMI, diabetes, postoperative osteoporosis treatment, handgrip strength, L1 BMD, multivariate analyses also indicated a persistent modest effect of L3 PMD on SVF-free survival. The area under the ROC curve of L3 PMD and L1 BMD, combined to predict the risk of SVF, was 0.790, which was significantly higher than the value for L1 BMD alone (0.735). L3 PMD and L1 BMD significantly improved the accuracy of SVF risk prediction compared with L1 BMD alone, which was confirmed by reclassification improvement measures. The inclusion of handgrip strength and postoperative osteoporosis treatment in the model further improved SVF prediction accuracy, and PMD remained significant in the model.

CONCLUSION

Decreased L3 PMD is an independent risk predictor of SVF. Combined CT-based L1 BMD and L3 PMD can significantly improve the accuracy of predicting the risk of SVF in postmenopausal women who have suffered prior osteoporotic vertebral fractures.

Osteoporosis, fracture and survival: Application of machine learning in breast cancer prediction models

The risk of osteoporosis in breast cancer patients is higher than that in healthy populations. The fracture and death rates increase after patients are diagnosed with osteoporosis. We aimed to develop machine learning-based models to predict the risk of osteoporosis as well as the relative fracture occurrence and prognosis. We selected 749 breast cancer patients from two independent Chinese centers and applied six different methods of machine learning to develop osteoporosis, fracture and survival risk assessment models. The performance of the models was compared with that of current models, such as FRAX, OSTA and TNM, by applying ROC, DCA curve analysis, and the calculation of accuracy and sensitivity in both internal and independent external cohorts. Three models were developed. The XGB model demonstrated the best discriminatory performance among the models. Internal and external validation revealed that the AUCs of the osteoporosis model were 0.86 and 0.87, compared with the FRAX model (0.84 and 0.72)/OSTA model (0.77 and 0.66), respectively. The fracture model had high AUCs in the internal and external cohorts of 0.93 and 0.92, which were higher than those of the FRAX model (0.89 and 0.86). The survival model was also assessed and showed high reliability via internal and external validation (AUC of 0.96 and 0.95), which was better than that of the TNM model (AUCs of 0.87 and 0.87). Our models offer a solid approach to help improve decision making.

Improved fracture risk prediction by adding VFA-identified vertebral fracture data to BMD by DXA and clinical risk factors used in FRAX

Vertebral fracture (VF) is a strong predictor of subsequent fracture. In this study of older women, VF, identified by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) vertebral fracture assessment (VFA), were associated with an increased risk of incident fractures and had a substantial impact on fracture probability, supporting the utility of VFA in clinical practice.

PURPOSE

Clinical and occult VF can be identified using VFA with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent VFA-identified VF improve fracture risk prediction, independently of bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factors used in FRAX.

METHODS

A total of 2852 women, 75-80 years old, from the prospective population-based study SUPERB cohort, were included in this study. At baseline, BMD was measured by DXA, VF diagnosed by VFA, and questionnaires used to collect data on risk factors for fractures. Incident fractures were captured by X-ray records or by diagnosis codes. An extension of Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between VFA-identified VF and the risk of fracture and the 5- and 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) was calculated from the hazard functions for fracture and death.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5.15 years (IQR 4.3-5.9 years), the number of women who died or suffered a MOF, clinical VF, or hip fracture was 229, 422, 160, and 124, respectively. A VFA-identified VF was associated with an increased risk of incident MOF (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46-2.18), clinical VF (HR = 2.88; 95% [CI] 2.11-3.93), and hip fracture (HR = 1.67; 95% [CI] 1.15-2.42), adjusted for age, height, and weight. For women at age 75 years, a VFA-identified VF was associated with 1.2-1.4-fold greater 10-year MOF probability compared with not taking VFA into account, depending on BMD.

CONCLUSION

Identifying an occult VF using VFA has a substantial impact on fracture probability, indicating that VFA is an efficient method to improve fracture prediction in older women.

Association Between Muscle Mass Determined by D3 -Creatine Dilution and Incident Fractures in a Prospective Cohort Study of Older Men

The relation between a novel measure of total skeletal muscle mass (assessed by D₃ -creatine dilution [D₃ Cr]) and incident fracture is unknown. In 1363 men (mean age 84.2 years), we determined D₃ Cr muscle mass; Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic (hip, humerus, vertebral, forearm) fracture; and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) (by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry [DXA]). Incident fractures were centrally adjudicated by review of radiology reports over 4.6 years. Correlations adjusted for weight and height were calculated between femoral neck BMD and D₃ Cr muscle mass. Across quartiles of D₃ Cr muscle mass/weight, proportional hazards models calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for any (n = 180); nonspine (n = 153); major osteoporotic fracture (n = 85); and hip fracture (n = 40) after adjustment for age, femoral neck BMD, recurrent fall history, and FRAX probability. Models were then adjusted to evaluate the mediating influence of physical performance (walking speed, chair stands, and grip strength). D₃ Cr muscle mass was weakly correlated with femoral BMD (r = 0.10, p < 0.001). Compared to men in the highest quartile, those in the lowest quartile of D₃ Cr muscle mass/weight had an increased risk of any clinical fracture (HR 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.8); nonspine fracture (HR 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.0), major osteoporotic fracture (HR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.6), and hip fracture (HR 5.9; 95% CI, 1.6-21.1). Results were attenuated after adjustment for physical performance, but associations remained borderline significant for hip and major osteoporotic fractures (p ≥ 0.05 to 0.10). Low D₃ Cr muscle mass/weight is associated with a markedly high risk of hip and potentially other fractures in older men; this association is partially mediated by physical performance. © 2022 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Study epidemiology of risk fracture in osteoporosis based on frax score, and osta score, with risk of fall using Ontario score in elderly Indonesia

Background:

Osteoporosis is characterized by a low bone mass of bone tissue. If osteoporosis is not treated properly, it will increase the high risk of fracture. The common causes of fracture on osteoporosis condition due to falls. This study aims to find the correlation between the risk of osteoporosis with fall risk (ONTARIO) based on osteoporosis fracture risk (FRAX)

Methods:

This study is an analytic study with a cross-sectional method. We collected the sample using random cluster sampling in the six primary health care in Malang on different times service since August–September 2021. Total patient 139, however only 132 patients were included in this study. After collecting data is complete, we analyze using Chi-square tests.

Results:

The mean age of participants was 63.9 ± 7.14. with the age group was dominated by the range of 60–64. It was found that the result of the FRAX SCORE had a low-risk category for major fracture osteoporosis and risk hip fracture. In contrast, from the OSTA score in this study, more than 68 participants (50.8%) were found medium and high-risk scores. Then, in ONTARIO score of the risk fall assessment, and high score in 57 participants (43.2%). If compared between OSTA and ONTARIO, there was a significant relationship between OSTA score and ONTARIO score (p < 0.000) with high-risk OSTA have a significant relationship with a high risk of falling and vice versa.

Conclusion:

In this study, there was a relationship between the risk of high osteoporosis and the risk of falling.

Is it time to consider population screening for fracture risk in postmenopausal women? A position paper from the International Osteoporosis Foundation Epidemiology/Quality of Life Working Group

The IOF Epidemiology and Quality of Life Working Group has reviewed the potential role of population screening for high hip fracture risk against well-established criteria. The report concludes that such an approach should strongly be considered in many health care systems to reduce the burden of hip fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The burden of long-term osteoporosis management falls on primary care in most healthcare systems. However, a wide and stable treatment gap exists in many such settings; most of which appears to be secondary to a lack of awareness of fracture risk. Screening is a public health measure for the purpose of identifying individuals who are likely to benefit from further investigations and/or treatment to reduce the risk of a disease or its complications. The purpose of this report was to review the evidence for a potential screening programme to identify postmenopausal women at increased risk of hip fracture.

METHODS

The approach took well-established criteria for the development of a screening program, adapted by the UK National Screening Committee, and sought the opinion of 20 members of the International Osteoporosis Foundation's Working Group on Epidemiology and Quality of Life as to whether each criterion was met (yes, partial or no). For each criterion, the evidence base was then reviewed and summarized.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The report concludes that evidence supports the proposal that screening for high fracture risk in primary care should strongly be considered for incorporation into many health care systems to reduce the burden of fractures, particularly hip fractures. The key remaining hurdles to overcome are engagement with primary care healthcare professionals, and the implementation of systems that facilitate and maintain the screening program.

Performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in Individuals with Diabetes: A Registry-Based Cohort Study

Diabetes increases fracture and falls risks. We evaluated the performance of the Garvan fracture risk calculator (FRC) in individuals with versus without diabetes. Using the population-based Manitoba bone mineral density (BMD) registry, we identified individuals aged 50-95 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment from 1 September 2012, onwards with diabetes and self-reported falls in the prior 12 months. Five-year Garvan FRC predictions were generated from clinical risk factors, with and without femoral neck BMD. We identified non-traumatic osteoporotic fractures (OF) and hip fractures (HF) from population-based data to 31 March 2018. Fracture risk stratification was assessed from area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC). Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the effect of diabetes on fractures, adjusted for Garvan FRC predictions. The study population consisted of 2618 women with and 14,064 without diabetes, and 636 and 2201 men with and without the same, respectively. The Garvan FRC provided significant OF and HF risk stratification in women with diabetes, similar to those without diabetes. Analyses of OF in men were limited by smaller numbers; no significant difference was evident by diabetes status. Cox regression showed that OF risk was 23% greater in women with diabetes adjusted for Garvan FRC including BMD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.49), suggesting it slightly underestimated risk; a non-significant increase in diabetes-related HF risk was noted (HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.88-2.15). Garvan FRC shows similar fracture risk stratification in individuals with versus without diabetes, but may underestimate this risk.

Reverse engineering the FRAX algorithm: Clinical insights and systematic analysis of fracture risk

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) is a computational tool developed to predict the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture based on inputs of patient characteristics, bone mineral density (BMD), and a set of seven clinical risk factors. While the FRAX tool is widely available and clinically validated, its underlying algorithm is not public. The relative contribution and necessity of each input parameter to the final FRAX score is unknown. We systematically collected hip fracture risk scores from the online FRAX calculator for osteopenic Caucasian women across 473,088 unique inputs. This dataset was used to dissect the FRAX algorithm and construct a reverse-engineered fracture risk model to assess the relative contribution of each input variable. Within the reverse-engineered model, age and T-Score were the strongest contributors to hip fracture risk, while BMI had marginal contribution. Of the clinical risk factors, parent history of fracture and ongoing glucocorticoid treatment had the largest additive effect on risk score. A generalized linear model largely recapitulated the FRAX tool with an R2 of 0.91. Observed effect sizes were then compared to a true patient population by creating a logistic regression model of the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) cohort, which closely paralleled the effect sizes seen in the reverse-engineered fracture risk model. Analysis identified several clinically relevant observations of interest to FRAX users. The role of major osteoporotic fracture risk prediction in contributing to an indication of treatment need is very narrow, as the hip fracture risk prediction accounted for 98% of treatment indications for the SOF cohort. Removing any risk factor from the model substantially decreased its accuracy and confirmed that more parsimonious models are not ideal for fracture prediction. For women 65 years and older with a previous fracture, 98% of FRAX combinations exceeded the treatment threshold, regardless of T-score or other factors. For women age 70+ with a parent history of fracture, 99% of FRAX combinations exceed the treatment threshold. Based on these analyses, we re-affirm the efficacy of the FRAX as the best tool for fracture risk assessment and provide deep insight into the interplay between risk factors.

Age-dependent assessment thresholds to optimize patient care in a resource-limited setting: an analysis based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model

Age-dependent upper and lower assessment thresholds help categorizing women aged 40 years or more according to their fracture risk, independent of BMD information.

INTRODUCTION

Age-dependent assessment thresholds of the FRAX algorithm help stratifying men and women aged 40 years or more according to their fracture risk. This allows clinicians to decide on those who require interventions without BMD assessment and those who require BMD input for further assessment.

METHODS

Intervention thresholds were defined by 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) considering a woman with a BMI of 25.0 kg/m² having a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The lower assessment thresholds (LAT) were set at 0.8 times the 10-year probabilities of a MOF and HF in a woman with a BMI of 25.0 kg/m², without previous fracture or other clinical risk factors. The upper assessment thresholds (UAT) were set at 1.2 times the intervention thresholds of MOF and HF. Fracture probabilities were estimated for the age range of 40-80 years, without BMD input. These values were applied to a group of women who underwent DXA for clinical reasons in a single center.

RESULTS

The LATs of MOF and HF varied from 0.7 to 8.8% and 0.1 to 3.7%, from 40 to 80 years, respectively. The corresponding values for UATs were 2.5 to 21.6% and 0.3 to 8.4%. ITs of MOF and HF varied from 2.1 to 18% and 0.2 to 7%, respectively. When applied to a group of 315 postmenopausal women who underwent DXA for clinical indications, 22.9% of women were above the UATs (high-risk category) while 8.6% were below the LATs (low-risk category). The proportion of women in the intermediate category who require BMD for further assessment was 68.6% (95% CI 59.7 to 77.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

In nearly one-third of women aged 40 years or more, the decision to treat or not to treat can be achieved without BMD estimation. The remaining two-thirds will require a BMD assessment for further evaluation.

Role of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool and Bone Turnover Markers in Predicting All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

Background

Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) and bone turnover markers (BTMs) predict fractures in the general population. However, the role of FRAX and BTMs in predicting mortality remains uncertain in hemodialysis (HD) patients.

Methods

One hundred and sixty-four HD patients stratified by low or high risk of 10-year fracture probability using FRAX. High risk of fracture was defined as 10-year probability of hip fracture ≥3% or major osteoporotic fracture ≥20%. The association of high risk of fracture and BTMs with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular (CV) mortality were evaluated using multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis.

Results

Eighty-five (51.8%) patients were classified as high risk of fracture based on FRAX among 164 HD patients. During a mean follow-up period of 3.5 ± 1.0 years, there were 39 all-cause deaths and 23 CV deaths. In multivariate-adjusted Cox regression, high risk of fracture based on FRAX was independently associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 2.493, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.026–6.056, p = 0.044) but not with CV mortality (HR: 2.129, 95% CI: 0.677–6.700, p = 0.196). There were no associations between BTMs and mortality risk. Furthermore, lower geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) was significantly associated with increased CV mortality (HR: 0.888, 95% CI: 0.802–0.983, p = 0.022) after adjusting by confounding variables.

Conclusion

High risk of fracture using FRAX was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients undergoing HD. FRAX, rather than BTMs, has an important role of prognostic significance in HD patients.

UK clinical guideline for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis

The National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) has revised the UK guideline for the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women, and men age 50 years and older. Accredited by NICE, this guideline is relevant for all healthcare professionals involved in osteoporosis management.

INTRODUCTION

The UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) first produced a guideline on the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis in 2008, with updates in 2013 and 2017. This paper presents a major update of the guideline, the scope of which is to review the assessment and management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures in postmenopausal women, and men age 50 years and older.

METHODS

Where available, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and randomised controlled trials were used to provide the evidence base. Conclusions and recommendations were systematically graded according to the strength of the available evidence.

RESULTS

Review of the evidence and recommendations are provided for the diagnosis of osteoporosis, fracture-risk assessment and intervention thresholds, management of vertebral fractures, non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments, including duration and monitoring of anti-resorptive therapy, glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis, and models of care for fracture prevention. Recommendations are made for training; service leads and commissioners of healthcare; and for review criteria for audit and quality improvement.

CONCLUSION

The guideline, which has received accreditation from the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE), provides a comprehensive overview of the assessment and management of osteoporosis for all healthcare professionals involved in its management. This position paper has been endorsed by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and by the European Society for the Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases.

Incidence of hip fracture in Saudi Arabia and the development of a FRAX model

A prospective hospital-based survey in representative regions of Saudi Arabia determined the incidence of fractures at the hip. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX® model to facilitate fracture risk assessment in Saudi Arabia.

OBJECTIVE

This paper describes the incidence of hip fracture in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that was used to characterize the current and future burden of hip fracture, to develop a country-specific FRAX® tool for fracture prediction and to compare fracture probabilities with neighbouring countries.

METHODS

During a 2-year (2017/2018) prospective survey in 15 hospitals with a defined catchment population, hip fractures in Saudi citizens were prospectively identified from hospital registers. The number of hip fractures and future burden was determined from national demography. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Saudi Arabia. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from Kuwait and Abu Dhabi.

RESULTS

The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 2,949 and is predicted to increase nearly sevenfold to 20,328 in 2050. Hip fracture rates were comparable with estimates from Abu Dhabi and Kuwait. By contrast, probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture from the age of 70 years were much lower than those seen in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait due to higher mortality estimates for Saudi Arabia.

CONCLUSION

A country-specific FRAX tool for fracture prediction has been developed for Saudi Arabia which is expected to help guide decisions about treatment.

Management of patients at very high risk of osteoporotic fractures through sequential treatments

Osteoporosis care has evolved markedly over the last 50 years, such that there are now an established clinical definition, validated methods of fracture risk assessment and a range of effective pharmacological agents. Currently, bone-forming (anabolic) agents, in many countries, are used in those patients who have continued to lose bone mineral density (BMD), patients with multiple subsequent fractures or those who have fractured despite treatment with antiresorptive agents. However, head-to-head data suggest that anabolic agents have greater rapidity and efficacy for fracture risk reduction than do antiresorptive therapies. The European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) convened an expert working group to discuss the tools available to identify patients at high risk of fracture, review the evidence for the use of anabolic agents as the initial intervention in patients at highest risk of fracture and consider the sequence of therapy following their use. This position paper sets out the findings of the group and the consequent recommendations. The key conclusion is that the current evidence base supports an "anabolic first" approach in patients found to be at very high risk of fracture, followed by maintenance therapy using an antiresorptive agent, and with the subsequent need for antiosteoporosis therapy addressed over a lifetime horizon.

Epidemiology of hip fracture in Qatar and development of a country specific FRAX model

Hip fracture data were retrieved from electronical medical records for the years 2017-2019 in the State of Qatar and used to create a FRAX® model to facilitate fracture risk assessment. Hip fracture rates were comparable with estimates from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Kuwait but fracture probabilities varied due to differences in mortality.

OBJECTIVE

This paper describes the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in the State of Qatar that was used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool.

METHODS

Hip fracture data were retrieved from electronic medical records for the years 2017-2019 in the State of Qatar. The age and sex specific incidence of hip fracture in Qatari residents and national mortality rates were used to create a FRAX® model. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighboring countries having FRAX models.

RESULTS

Hip fracture rates were comparable with estimates from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait. In contrast, probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture were lower in Qatar than in Kuwait but higher than those in Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia due to differences in mortality.

CONCLUSION

The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Qatari population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Prediction of vertebral fractures in cancer patients undergoing hormone deprivation therapies: reliability of who fracture risk assessment tool (frax) and bone mineral density in real-life clinical practice

•

In females under estrogen-deprivation therapies, risk of vertebral fractures was associated with FRAX score for major fractures, with the best therapeutic threshold of 6.5%.

•

In males under androgen-deprivation therapy, risk of vertebral fractures was high when BMD T-score was lower than −1.0 SD or when subjects were treated with abiraterone.

•

High body mass index was an independent risk factor for vertebral fractures in males exposed to androgen-deprivation therapy.

•

In the setting of hormonal deprivation therapies, FRAX and BMD thresholds were lower than those used in post-menopausal osteoporosis and primary male osteoporosis.

Background and Objective

Prediction of fractures in cancer survivors exposed to hormone-deprivation therapies (HDTs) is a challenge since bone loss is rapid and severe, and determinants of fractures in this setting are still largely unknown. In this study we investigated reliability of the WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) and bone mineral density (BMD) to identify subjects developing vertebral fractures during HDTs.

Design

Five-hundred-twenty-seven consecutive subjects (429 females with breast cancer, 98 males with prostate cancer; median age 61 years), under HDTs for at least 6 months, were evaluated for vertebral fractures by a radiological and morphometric approach, in relationship with FRAX score, body mass index (BMI), BMD, age and duration of HDTs.

Results

Vertebral fractures were found in 140 subjects (26.6%) and spine deformity index was significantly associated with duration of HDTs (rho 0.38; p < 0.001). Only in females, vertebral fractures were significantly associated with FRAX score for major fractures [OR 1.08; P < 0.001]. The best cut-off of FRAX score for major fractures, as calculated by receiving operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 6.35%. In males, however, vertebral fractures were significantly and independently associated with BMI ≥ 25 Kg/m² (OR 17.63; P < 0.001), BMD T-score below −1.0 SD at any skeletal site (OR 7.79; P < 0.001) and gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists (GnRHa) plus abiraterone treatment (OR 11.51; P = 0.001).

Conclusions

FRAX and BMD may be useful for predicting vertebral fractures in subjects undergoing HDTs, but the thresholds seem to be lower than those used in the general population. High BMI is a determinant of vertebral fractures in males under HDT.

Predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator: a registry-based cohort study

The G arvan Fracture Risk Calculator predicts risk of osteoporotic fractures. We evaluated its predictive performance in 16,682 women and 2839 men from Manitoba, Canada, and found significant risk stratification, with a strong gradient across scores. The tool outperformed clinical risk factors and bone mineral density for fracture risk stratification.

INTRODUCTION

The optimal model for fracture risk estimation to guide treatment decision-making remains controversial. Our objective was to evaluate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC) in a large clinical registry from Manitoba, Canada.

METHODS

Using the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) registry, we identified women and men aged 50-95 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment from September 1, 2012, onwards. Five-year Garvan FRC predictions were generated from clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without femoral neck BMD. We identified incident non-traumatic osteoporotic fractures (OFs) and hip fractures (HFs) from population-based healthcare data sources to March 31, 2018. Fracture risk was assessed from area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Cox regression analysis and calibration ratios (5-year observed/predicted) were assessed for risk quintiles. All analyses were sex stratified.

RESULTS

We included 16,682 women (mean age 66.6 + / - SD 8.7 years) and 2839 men (mean age 68.7 + / - SD 10.2 years). During a mean observation time of 2.6 years, incident OFs were identified in 681 women and 140 men and HFs in 199 women and 22 men. AUROC showed significant fracture risk stratification with the Garvan FRC. Tool predictions without BMD were better than from age or decreasing weight, and the tool with BMD performed better than BMD alone. Garvan FRC with BMD performed better than without BMD, especially for HF prediction (AUROC 0.86 in women, 0.82 in men). There was a strong gradient of increasing risk across Garvan FRC quintiles (highest versus lowest, hazard ratios women 5.75 and men 3.43 for any OF; women 101.6 for HF). Calibration differences were noted, with both over- and underestimation in risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Garvan FRC outperformed CRFs and BMD alone for fracture risk stratification, particularly for HF, but may require recalibration for accurate predictions in this population.

Establishment of a preliminary FRAX®-based intervention threshold for rheumatoid arthritis–associated fragility fracture: a 3-year longitudinal, observational, cohort study

Background:

To establish a FRAX®-based prediction model for rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-associated fragility fracture.

Methods:

This study is a longitudinal, real-world, registry cohort study. Patients with RA were registered to start in September 2014. The baseline demographics, bone mineral density (BMD), and risk factors of osteoporosis or fragility fracture were recorded. Subsequent fragility fractures during the 3-year observation period were also recorded. We developed a fixed intervention threshold (FITD) to identify fractures by choosing an optimal cut-off point on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and FRAX®. Several models for intervention thresholds (IT), including fixed intervention threshold (Taiwan) (FITT), age-specific individual intervention threshold (IIT), and hybrid intervention threshold (HIT), were compared to evaluate which IT model will have better discriminative power.

Results:

As of December 2020, a total of 493 RA participants have completed the 3-year observation study. The mean age of the participants was 59.3 ± 8.7, and 116 (23.5%) new fragility fractures were observed during the study period. In terms of pairwise comparisons of area under the curve ( n, 95% confidence interval) in the ROC curve, the FITD (0.669, 0.610–0.727, p < 0.001) with a value of 22% in major osteoporotic fracture and FITT (0.640, 0.582–0.699, p < 0.001) is significantly better than reference, but not for IIT (0.543, 0.485–0.601, p = 0.165) and HIT (0.543, 0.485–0.601, p = 0.165).

Conclusion:

An optimal FIT is established for intervention decisions in RA-associated fragility fractures. This model can offer an easy and simple guide to aid RA caregivers to provide interventions to prevent fragility fractures in patients with RA.

Fracture risk assessment by the FRAX model

The introduction of the FRAX algorithms has facilitated the assessment of fracture risk on the basis of fracture probability. FRAX integrates the influence of several well-validated risk factors for fracture with or without the use of bone mineral density. Since age-specific rates of fracture and death differ across the world, FRAX models are calibrated with regard to the epidemiology of hip fracture (preferably from national sources) and mortality (usually United Nations sources). Models are currently available for 73 nations or territories covering more than 80% of the world population. FRAX has been incorporated into more than 80 guidelines worldwide, although the nature of this application has been heterogeneous. The limitations of FRAX have been extensively reviewed. Arithmetic procedures have been proposed in order to address some of these limitations, which can be applied to conventional FRAX estimates to accommodate knowledge of dose exposure to glucocorticoids, concurrent data on lumbar spine bone mineral density, information on trabecular bone score, hip axis length, falls history, type 2 diabetes, immigration status and recency of prior fracture.

Validation of the Taiwan FRAX® calculator for the prediction of fracture risk

The Taiwan FRAX® calculator was validated to predict incident fractures preliminarily. Cutoffs of FRAX probability for predicting major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture were proposed as 9.5% and 4% in Taiwanese individuals.

PURPOSE

FRAX® is an algorithm used to calculate fracture probabilities based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) and bone mineral density (BMD). The country-specific Taiwan FRAX calculator has not been validated since its establishment in 2010. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the predictive performance of the Taiwan FRAX calculator using longitudinal fracture data.

METHODS

A total of 1975 subjects, aged ≧ 40 years old, from Yunlin and Tianliao cohorts in Taiwan during the period 2009-2010, were identified and completely connected with the 2008-2016 National Health Insurance Research Database.

RESULTS

During the average 6.8 ± 1.1 years of follow-up, 160 incident major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) were identified. The predictive ability assessing based on the observed to expected fractures (O/E) ratio calculated with the FRAX probability adjusted for 6.8 years were 1.19 (95%CI 1.02-1.39) for MOF, and 1.07 (95%CI 0.82-1.39) for hip fractures. In the discriminative statistics, the AUC for prediction of major osteoporotic fractures using FRAX was 0.75 without and 0.77 with BMD (AUC for hip fracture was 0.75 without and 0.77 with BMD). The optimal cutoff value was 9.5% of the FRAX score with BMD for all major osteoporotic fractures, with good sensitivity (76.9%) and specificity (65.3%). For hip fractures, the optimal cutoff point for the FRAX probability with BMD was 4.0%, and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 68.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The Taiwan FRAX® calculator was validated to predict incident fractures preliminarily. Cutoffs are proposed for predicting fracture risk in Taiwanese individuals.

An optimal intervention threshold of FRAX in postmenopausal Thai women

This study was designed to determine a FRAX intervention threshold in postmenopausal Thais, based on a history of hip fracture. The optimal FRAX thresholds for hip fracture were 4.9% (without BMD) and 4% (with BMD), while the thresholds for major osteoporotic fracture were 9.8% (without BMD) and 8.9% (with BMD).

INTRODUCTION

Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) has been widely used as an intervention threshold for initiating osteoporosis treatment. However, there is a lack of data to validate the threshold in Thai population.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted from January 2014 to February 2019. Postmenopausal women in the Northeast of Thailand whom has bone mineral density (BMD) measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in the study period were recruited. Participants who had previously received anti-osteoporotic treatment were not eligible. FRAX score, both with and without BMD, was calculated using a Thai reference. Prevalent hip fracture was identified by reviewing the ICD-10 diagnosis from the hospital database during the study period. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Youden index were used to determine the FRAX threshold in predicting hip fracture, based on the rationale that women with a prevalent hip fracture would be eligible for treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 2872 postmenopausal Thai women were recruited, with 45 sustained a recent hip fracture. In association with hip fracture, the optimal FRAX thresholds for hip fracture without and with BMD were 4.9% and 4%, respectively, with 71.1% sensitivity and 83.3% specificity, and 82.2% sensitivity and 78.6% specificity, while the optimal FRAX thresholds for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) without and with BMD were 9.8% and 8.9%, respectively, with 75.6% sensitivity and 77.0% specificity, and 86.7% sensitivity and 70.9% specificity.

CONCLUSION

An optimal intervention threshold based on FRAX of hip fracture and MOF in postmenopausal Thai women is slightly different from the standard recommendation, which confirmed the marked variations of thresholds across ethnicities. The proposed threshold should be considered as new cutoff for initiating osteoporosis treatment in postmenopausal Thais.

Prevalence of FRAX risk factors and the osteoporosis treatment gap among women ≥ 70 years of age in routine primary care across 8 countries in Europe

We studied whether elderly women at risk for fractures receive primary care treatment to prevent fracture. We found that across Europe, women at risk are often not identified, and less than half of such women receive appropriate treatment. Finally, women diagnosed with osteoporosis are much more likely to receive treatment.

PURPOSE

To examine the relationship between risk factors for fragility fracture (FF) and osteoporosis (OP) treatment gap in elderly women across Europe, and compare the prevalence of risk factors between countries.

METHODS

Demographic and clinical information was collected from women ≥ 70 years visiting primary care physicians in Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the UK. Increased risk of FF was defined by the presence of 1 or more criteria (history of fracture, 10-year fracture probability, or T-score ≤  - 2.5).

RESULTS

There were 3798 women in total. Treatment gap (proportion at increased risk of FF not receiving treatment for OP) varied from 53.1 to 90.8% across countries, and the proportion of patients at increased risk of FF varied from 41.2 to 76.1%. Across countries, less than 50% of patients with increased risk of FF had a diagnosis of OP. Previous fracture was the most common risk factor, with similar prevalence across most countries; other risk factors varied widely. The treatment gap was reduced in patients with an OP diagnosis in all countries, but this reduction varied from 36.5 to 79.4%. The countries with the lowest rates of bone densitometry scans (Poland, France, and Germany; 8.3-12.3%) also had the highest treatment gap (82.2 to 90.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights differences across Europe in clinical risk factors for fracture, rates of densitometry scanning, and the rates of OP diagnosis. More emphasis is needed on risk assessment to improve the identification and treatment of elderly women at risk for fracture.

Consensus recommendations on managing the selected comorbidities including cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and interstitial lung disease in rheumatoid arthritis

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-related comorbidities, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), osteoporosis (OP), and interstitial lung disease (ILD), are sub-optimally managed. RA-related comorbidities affect disease control and lead to impairment in quality of life. We aimed to develop consensus recommendations for managing RA-related comorbidities.

METHODS

The consensus statements were formulated based on emerging evidence during a face-to-face meeting of Taiwan rheumatology experts and modified through three-round Delphi exercises. The quality of evidence and strength of recommendation of each statement were graded after a literature review, followed by voting for agreement. Through a review of English-language literature, we focused on the existing evidence of management of RA-related comorbidities.

RESULTS

Based on experts' consensus, eleven recommendations were developed. CVD risk should be assessed in patients at RA diagnosis, once every 5 years, and at changes in DMARDs therapy. Considering the detrimental effects of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and corticosteroids on CVD risks, we recommend using the lowest possible dose of corticosteroids and prescribing NSAIDs cautiously. The OP/fragility fracture risk assessment includes dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and fracture risk assessment (FRAX) in RA. The FRAX-based approach with intervention threshold is a useful strategy for managing OP. RA-ILD assessment includes risk factors, pulmonary function tests, HRCT imaging and a multidisciplinary decision approach to determine RA-ILD severity. A treat-to-target strategy would limit RA-related comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

These consensus statements emphasize that adequate control of disease activity and the risk factors are needed for managing RA-related comorbidities, and may provide useful recommendations for rheumatologists on managing RA-related comorbidities.

Comparison between real-world practice and application of the FRAX algorithm in the treatment of osteoporosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The most recent guidelines suggest treating patients whose FRAX 10-year fracture risk scores are ≥ 20%. However, this method of evaluation does not take into account parameters that are nonetheless relevant to the therapeutic choice. Our aim was to compare the therapeutic choices for treatment based on a wider assessment (real-world practice) with those based on FRAX scores, taking 20% as the cut-off score.

METHODS

We obtained the medical history, bone mineral density (BMD) values, and the presence of major fragility fractures in a sample of 856 postmenopausal women. The 10-year FRAX risk of major osteoporotic fracture was calculated, and patients were grouped into risk classes ("FRAX < 20%" = low, "FRAX ≥ 20%" = high); we then compared the treated and untreated patients in each class. After an average interval of 2.5 years, changes in lumbar and femoral BMD and appearances of new fragility fractures were recorded.

RESULTS

83% of high-risk patients and 57% of low-risk patients were treated. The therapeutic decision was based mainly on densitometric values and the presence of vertebral fractures. At the 2.5 year follow-up, lumbar spine and femur BMD had decreased in the untreated group; 9.9% of the treated patients developed new vertebral fragility fractures, compared with 5.3% of the untreated patients.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our wider assessment designated as at high fracture risk a group of patients who had not been identified by the FRAX assessment. FRAX could underestimate the risk of fracture in older people, for which the therapeutic choice should consider a broader approach, also based on individual patient's needs.

Multidisciplinary Consensus on the Prevention and Treatment of Osteoporosis and Fragility Fractures in Patients with Prostate Cancer Receiving Androgen-Deprivation Therapy

Patients with prostate cancer (PCa) on androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) are at high risk of osteoporosis and fragility fractures. We aimed to provide some practical insights into the delivery of optimal bone health care for PCa patients, particularly those on ADT. An interdisciplinary group of experts, including urologists and rheumatologists developed recommendations based on their expertise, current evidence and guidelines. The multidisciplinary group's main recommendations are: fragility fracture risk should be assessed in all PCa patient, especially, in those under ADT. FRAX® tool may be incorporated into clinical practice to identify patients at high risk of fracture. Bone mineral density (BMD) should be measured routinely by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry in all patients scheduled for or on ADT. Thoracic and lumbar spine X-ray may be performed at the initial evaluation of patients with the diagnosis of osteoporosis and in case of suspected clinical vertebral fracture. Basic laboratory tests are recommended to exclude secondary osteoporosis. Treatment with bisphosphonates or denosumab should be considered in patients on ADT with fragility fracture, osteoporosis (BMD T-score ≤-2.5), or high risk of fracture according to FRAX®. Referral to a bone metabolism specialist should be contemplated in some cases. The recommendations provided in this document, tailored for clinicians treating PCa patients, may be of help to identify and treat patients at high risk of fracture.

One leg standing time predicts fracture risk in older women independent of clinical risk factors and BMD

In women of ages 75-80 years, a low one leg standing time (OLST) was associated with an increased risk of incident fractures, independently of bone mineral density and clinical risk factors. OLST contributed substantially to fracture probability, indicating that the test should be considered when evaluating fracture risk in older women.

INTRODUCTION

Physical function and risk of falls are important risk factors for fracture. A few previous studies have suggested that a one leg standing time (OLST) less than 10 s predicts fracture risk, but the impact of OLST, in addition to known clinical risk factors, for fracture probability is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the independent contribution of OLST to fracture probability in older women.

METHODS

The Sahlgrenska University Hospital Prospective Evaluation of Risk of Bone Fractures (SUPERB) is a prospective population-based study of 3028 women 75-80 years old, recruited from the greater Gothenburg area in Sweden. At baseline, information on risk factors was collected using questionnaires, bone mineral density was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and OLST was performed.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 3.6 years (IQR 1.5 years), X-ray-verified incident fractures were identified using health records. OLST was available in 2405 women. OLST less than 10 s was associated with an increased risk for incident hip fracture (Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.02, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [1.49-6.10]), major osteoporotic fracture (HR 95% CI 1.76 [1.34-1.46]), and nonvertebral fracture (HR 95% CI 1.61 [1.26-2.05]) in Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, height, and weight. Depending on BMD, the 4-year fracture probability increased by a factor of 1.3 to 1.5 in a 75-year-old woman with a low OLST (<10 s).

CONCLUSION

A low OLST has a substantial impact on fracture probability and should be considered when evaluating fracture risk in older women.

FRAX-based intervention thresholds for Pakistan

We compared, for women in Pakistan, the utility of intervention thresholds either at a T-score ≤  - 2.5 or based on a FRAX probability equivalent to women of average body mass index (BMI) with a prior fragility fracture. Whereas the FRAX-based intervention threshold identified women at high fracture probability, the T-score threshold was less sensitive, and the associated fracture risk decreased markedly with age.

PURPOSE

The fracture risk assessment algorithm FRAX® has been recently calibrated for Pakistan, but guidance is needed on how to apply fracture probabilities to clinical practice.

METHODS

The age-specific 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women with average BMI to determine fracture probabilities at two potential intervention thresholds. The first comprised the age-specific fracture probabilities associated with a femoral neck T-score of - 2.5. The second approach determined age-specific fracture probabilities that were equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture, without bone mineral density (BMD). The parsimonious use of BMD was additionally explored by the computation of upper and lower assessment thresholds for BMD testing.

RESULTS

When a BMD T-score ≤  - 2.5 was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women aged 50 years were approximately two-fold higher than in women of the same age but with no risk factors and average BMD. The relative increase in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T-score of - 2.5 was actually protective. The 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture by age, equivalent to women with a previous fracture, rose with age from 2.1% at the age of 40 years to 17%, at the age of 90 years, and identified women at increased risk at all ages.

CONCLUSION

Intervention thresholds based on BMD alone do not effectively target women at high fracture risk, particularly in the elderly. In contrast, intervention thresholds based on fracture probabilities equivalent to a 'fracture threshold' target women at high fracture risk.

Hormone replacement therapy - Current recommendations

Menopause is a major life event that can affect women in several ways. Its onset marks the end of the reproductive life cycle, and its impact can be both short and long term. Menopause is often a gradual process, preceded by a transitional period known as perimenopause. The average age of menopause in the UK is 51. The clinical manifestations of menopause result from the eventual exhaustion of oocytes within the ovaries. This leads to a chronic hypo-estrogenic state, which in the short term causes menopausal symptoms and over a long term, has an impact on bone and cardiovascular health. There has been a steep drop in the prescription of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) following the publication of the Women's Health Initiative Study and the Million Women Study. It is currently estimated that approximately a million women in the UK are taking HRT for control of their menopausal symptoms. This review summarises the current recommendations for HRT use in menopausal women. The benefits of HRT in improving the symptoms of menopause are discussed as well as the potential role of HRT in managing long-term sequelae is covered. Evidence pertaining to the potential risks associated with HRT is also be reviewed.

Clinical practice of Best Practice Nursing Care Standards for Older Adults with Fragility Hip Fracture: A propensity score matched analysis

BACKGROUND

Fragility hip fracture (FHF) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. In 2018, Best Practice Nursing Care Standards for Older Adults with Fragility Hip Fracture (NSOF) were released by The International Collaboration of Orthopaedic Nursing (ICON). However, there are only limited clinical data about the application of this standard in clinical practice in China.

AIMS

To determine the clinical practice effect of the NSOF.

METHODS

A retrospective single-centre cohort study was performed from January 2016 to June 2020. Patients were divided into the standardized nursing care group (SN group) and the conventional nursing care group (CN group) depending on whether they were cared for according to the NSOF criteria. The propensity score matched (PSM) analysis was conducted in this study. The perioperative and follow-up outcomes between the two groups were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 204 patients diagnosed with FHF were included in the study. After a 1:1 matching, 56 cases were identified in the SN group as well as the CN group. Patients in the SN group had significantly shorter preoperative wait times for surgery (17.4 ± 4.6 vs. 24.4 ± 7.6 h, p < 0.05) and a higher proportion of individuals performing exercise within 24 h after surgery (94.6% vs. 66.1%, p < 0.05). Notably, patients in the SN group also had a significantly shorter length of stay than those in the CN group (9.4 ± 3.1 vs. 14.2 ± 5.1 days, p < 0.05). At the 6-month follow-up, the incidence of refracture was significantly lower (3.6% vs. 14.3%, p < 0.05), and the timed up and go mobility index was improved in the SN group compared to the CN group (20.3 ± 1.7 vs. 24.6 ± 2.2 s, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that application of the NSOF resulted in a significant improvement in the treatment of older adults patients with FHF.

The application of FRAX in Saudi Arabia

Assessment and treatment pathways based on age-specific intervention thresholds in Saudi Arabi can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk.

PURPOSE

Intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis have historically been based on the measurement of bone mineral density. The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Saudi Arabia based on fracture probabilities derived from FRAX®.

METHODS

The approach to the setting of intervention and assessment thresholds used the methodology adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Saudi Arabia. The methodology was applied to women age 40 years or more drawn from a tertiary referral population for skeletal assessment. Missing data for the calculation of FRAX was simulated using data from the referral and FRAX derivation cohorts.

RESULTS

Intervention thresholds expressed as a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture ranged from 2.0% at the age of 50 years increasing to 7.6% at the age of 70 years. A total of 163 of 1365 women (11.9%) had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. An additional 5 women were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended for 593 women (43.4%) so that FRAX could be recalculated with the inclusion of femoral neck BMD. Of these, 220 individuals would be eligible for treatment after a BMD test and 373 women categorised at low risk after a BMD test.

CONCLUSION

Probability-based assessment of fracture risk using age-specific intervention thresholds was developed for Saudi Arabia to help guide decisions about treatment.

Intervention thresholds to identify postmenopausal women with high fracture risk: A single center study based on the Philippines FRAX model

Objectives

This study is designed to estimate appropriate intervention thresholds for the Philippines Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) model to identify postmenopausal women with high fracture risk.

Methods

Age dependent intervention thresholds were calculated for a woman of body mass index 25 kg/m² aged 50-80 years with a previous fragility fracture without other clinical risk factors. Fixed thresholds were developed using a database of 1546 postmenopausal women who underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry for clinical reasons. Major and hip fracture risks were estimated using clinical risk factors with and without bone mineral density (BMD) input. Women were categorized to high risk and low risk groups according to the age dependent thresholds. The best cut-points were determined considering the optimum sensitivity and specificity using receiver operating characteristic analysis.

Results

The age dependent intervention thresholds of major fracture risk ranged from 2.8 to 6.9% while hip fracture risk ranged from 0.4 to 3.0% between 50 and 80 years of age. Major fracture threshold of 3.75% and hip fracture threshold of 1.25% were the best fixed thresholds observed and non-inclusion BMD in the fracture risk estimations did not change the values. As a hybrid method, 3% major fracture and 1% hip fracture risks for those < 70 years old and age-dependent thresholds for those aged 70 years and above can be recommended.

Conclusions

The intervention thresholds estimated in the current study can be applied to identify Filipino postmenopausal women with a high fracture risk. Clinicians should decide on the type of thresholds most appropriate.

Prevalence of osteoporosis in elderly women in Hong Kong

Objectives

To determine the prevalence of osteoporosis and the proportion who needed treatment after screening women aged 65 years or older; their treatment acceptance and continuation.

Methods

This is an observational study conducted between May 2017 and April 2020.

Participants underwent clinical assessment and bone mineral density measurement of lumbar spine, total hip, and femoral neck by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Those with osteoporosis at any site or osteopenia with 10-year major fracture risk ≥ 20% or hip fracture risk ≥ 3% by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool® were offered drug treatment.

Results

Among 1800 participants, 15.9% were normal, 33.2% were low-risk osteopenic, 27.2% were high-risk osteopenic, and 23.7% were osteoporotic. Their mean age was 69.4 years and 6.3% had low-energy fractures after menopause. After stepwise logistic regression analysis, only prior low-energy fractures after menopause and low body mass index (BMI) remained significantly correlated with osteoporosis. Those who needed treatment were significantly older, menopaused at age 45 years or earlier, had a parent with hip fracture, had low-energy fractures after menopause, and low BMI. Drug was offered to 916 women but 67.6% refused because they worried about side effects, interaction with existing drugs, and were reluctant to take more drugs. Treatment acceptance was significantly higher among osteoporotic patients. Treatment continuation at 6th and 12th months was also significantly higher in osteoporotic patients.

Conclusions

Osteoporosis screening in elderly women identified a significant proportion who needed treatment. Encouraging them to initiate drug, especially high-risk osteopenic patients, remained a challenge.

Trabecular bone patterns as a fracture risk predictor: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the assessment of trabecular bone patterns in dental radiographs, for fracture risk prediction, compared with the current diagnostic methods.

METHODS

The PRISMA guidelines were followed. According to predefined inclusion criteria (PICO), literature searches were focussed on published studies with analyses of trabecular bone patterns on intraoral and/or in panoramic radiographs, compared with Dual X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) and/or Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), with the outcomes; fracture and/or sensitivity and specificity for osteoporosis prediction. The included studies were quality-assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool and the certainties of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

The literature searches identified 2913 articles, whereas three were found to meet the inclusion criteria. Two longitudinal cohort studies evaluated the use of trabecular bone patterns to predict bone fractures. In one of the studies, the relative risk of fracture was significantly higher for women with sparse bone pattern, identified by visual assessment of dental radiographs, and in the other study by digital software assessment. Visual assessment in the second study did not show significant results. The cross-sectional study of digital analyses of trabecular bone patterns in relation to osteoporosis reported a sensitivity of 0.70 and a specificity of 0.69.

CONCLUSION

Based on low certainty of evidence, trabecular bone evaluation on dental radiographs may predict fractures in adults without a prior diagnosis of osteoporosis, and based on very low certainty of evidence, it is uncertain whether digital image analyses of trabecular bone can predict osteoporosis.

Diagnosis and Management of Osteoporosis During COVID-19: Systematic Review and Practical Guidance

It is acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound disruption to the delivery of healthcare services globally. This has affected the management of many long-term conditions including osteoporosis as resources are diverted to cover urgent care. Osteoporosis is a public health concern worldwide and treatment is required for the prevention of further bone loss, deterioration of skeletal micro-architecture, and fragility fractures. This review provides information on how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis. We also provide clinical recommendations on the adaptation of care pathways based on experience from five referral centres to ensure that patients with osteoporosis are still treated and to reduce the risk of fractures both for the individual patient and on a societal basis. We address the use of the FRAX tool for risk stratification and initiation of osteoporosis treatment and discuss the potential adaptations to treatment pathways in view of limitations on the availability of DXA. We focus on the issues surrounding initiation and maintenance of treatment for patients on parenteral therapies such as zoledronate, denosumab, teriparatide, and romosozumab during the pandemic. The design of these innovative care pathways for the management of patients with osteoporosis may also provide a platform for future improvement to osteoporosis services when routine clinical care resumes.

Multiple vertebral fractures after suspension of denosumab. A series of 56 cases

BACKGROUND

Denosumab is a monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. The withdrawal of denosumab produces an abrupt loss of bone mineral density and may cause multiple vertebral fractures (MVF).

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to study the clinical, biochemical, and densitometric characteristics in a large series of postmenopausal women who suffered MVF after denosumab withdrawal. Likewise, we try to identify those factors related to the presence of a greater number of vertebral fractures (VF).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Fifty-six patients (54 women) who suffered MVF after receiving denosumab at least for three consecutive years and abruptly suspended it. A clinical examination was carried out. Biochemical bone remodelling markers (BBRM) and bone densitometry at the lumbar spine and proximal femur were measured. VF were diagnosed by magnetic resonance imaging MRI, X-ray, or both at dorsal and lumbar spine.

RESULTS

Fifty-six patients presented a total of 192 VF. 41 patients (73.2%) had not previously suffered VF. After discontinuation of the drug, a statistically significant increase in the BBRM was observed. In the multivariate analysis, only the time that denosumab was previously received was associated with the presence of a greater number of VF (P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS

We present the series with the largest number of patients collected to date. 56 patients accumulated 192 new VF. After the suspension of denosumab and the production of MVF, there was an increase in the serum values of the BBRM. The time of denosumab use was the only parameter associated with a greater number of fractures.

Impact of population-based or targeted BMD interventions on fracture incidence

In a simulated population of older women, we demonstrate that an upward shift in the population distribution of BMD by approximately 0.3SD may decrease the risk of incident fractures to the same extent as an intervention targeted to those with T-score less than -2.5.

INTRODUCTION

To investigate the impact of population level or targeted alterations to BMD on the incidence of fractures.

METHODS

We used a simulated cohort of 49,242 women with age and body mass index distribution from the UK, and prevalence of other clinical risk factors based on European FRAX® cohorts. Using FRAX probabilities of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF: hip, clinical vertebral, distal forearm, proximal humerus) and hip fracture, calculated with femoral neck BMD, we determined the expected number of fractures over 10 years, stratified by 10-year age band from 50 years. We then investigated the effect of (i) uplifting all individuals with T-score below -2.5 to be exactly -2.5 (high-risk strategy) and (ii) shifting the entire BMD distribution upwards (population strategy).

RESULTS

Overall, the high-risk strategy prevented 573 MOF including 465 hip fractures. Moving the BMD T-score distribution upward by 0.27SD gave an equivalent reduction in numbers of MOF; for hip fractures prevented, this was 0.35SD. A global upward 0.25SD BMD shift prevented 524 MOF including 354 hip fractures, with corresponding figures for an increase of 0.5SD being 973 MOF prevented and 640 hip fractures prevented. The ratio of hip fracture to MOF prevented differed by the two approaches, such that for the high-risk strategy, the ratio was 0.81, and for the population strategy was 0.68 (0.25SD BMD uplift) and 0.66 (0.5SD BMD uplift). The numbers of fractures prevented by the high-risk strategy increased with age. In contrast, the age-related increase in numbers of fractures prevented with the population strategy rose with age, but peaked in the 70-79-year age band and declined thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

Both strategies reduced the numbers of expected incident fractures, with contrasting relative impacts by age and fracture site. Whilst the current analysis used UK/European anthropometric/risk factor distributions, further analyses calibrated to the distributions in other settings globally may be readily undertaken. Overall, these findings support the investigation of both population level interventions and those targeted at high fracture risk groups.