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Zuzic L, Marzinek JK, Warwicker J, Bond PJ. A Benzene-Mapping Approach for Uncovering Cryptic Pockets in Membrane-Bound Proteins. J Chem Theory Comput 2020; 16:5948-5959. [PMID: 32786908 DOI: 10.1021/acs.jctc.0c00370] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in combination with small organic probes present in the solvent have previously been used as a method to reveal cryptic pockets that may not have been identified in experimental structures. We report such a method implemented within the CHARMM force field using the GROMACS simulation package to effectively explore cryptic pockets on the surfaces of membrane-embedded proteins using benzene as a probe molecule. This method, for which we have made implementation files freely available, relies on modified nonbonded parameters in addition to repulsive potentials between membrane lipids and benzene molecules. The method was tested on part of the outer shell of the dengue virus (DENV), for which research into a safe and effective neutralizing antibody or drug molecule is still ongoing. In particular, the envelope (E) protein, associated with the membrane (M) protein, is a lipid membrane-embedded complex which forms a dimer in the mature viral envelope. Solvent mapping was performed for the full, membrane-embedded EM protein complex and compared with similar calculations performed for the isolated, soluble E protein ectodomain dimer in the solvent. Ectodomain-only simulations with benzene exhibited unfolding effects not observed in the more physiologically relevant membrane-associated systems. A cryptic pocket which has been experimentally shown to bind n-octyl-β-d-glucoside detergent was consistently revealed in all benzene-containing simulations. The addition of benzene also enhanced the flexibility and hydrophobic exposure of cryptic pockets at a key, functional interface in the E protein and revealed a novel, potentially druggable pocket that may be targeted to prevent conformational changes associated with viral entry into the cell.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lorena Zuzic
- Bioinformatics Institute (A*STAR), 30 Biopolis Street, 07-01 Matrix, Singapore 138671, Singapore.,Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Institute of Biotechnology, The University of Manchester, Manchester M1 7DN, United Kingdom
| | - Jan K Marzinek
- Bioinformatics Institute (A*STAR), 30 Biopolis Street, 07-01 Matrix, Singapore 138671, Singapore
| | - Jim Warwicker
- School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, Manchester Institute of Biotechnology, The University of Manchester, Manchester M1 7DN, United Kingdom
| | - Peter J Bond
- Bioinformatics Institute (A*STAR), 30 Biopolis Street, 07-01 Matrix, Singapore 138671, Singapore.,Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 16 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117558, Singapore
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52
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DiSera L, Sjödin H, Rocklöv J, Tozan Y, Súdre B, Zeller H, Muñoz ÁG. The Mosquito, the Virus, the Climate: An Unforeseen Réunion in 2018. GEOHEALTH 2020; 4:e2020GH000253. [PMID: 32864539 PMCID: PMC7443513 DOI: 10.1029/2020gh000253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Revised: 06/29/2020] [Accepted: 07/03/2020] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
The 2018 outbreak of dengue in the French overseas department of Réunion was unprecedented in size and spread across the island. This research focuses on the cause of the outbreak, asserting that climate played a large role in the proliferation of the Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, which transmitted the disease, and led to the dengue outbreak in early 2018. A stage-structured model was run using observed temperature and rainfall data to simulate the life cycle and abundance of the Ae. albopictus mosquito. Further, the model was forced with bias-corrected subseasonal forecasts to determine if the event could have been forecast up to 4 weeks in advance. With unseasonably warm temperatures remaining above 25°C, along with large tropical-cyclone-related rainfall events accumulating 10-15 mm per event, the modeled Ae. albopictus mosquito abundance did not decrease during the second half of 2017, contrary to the normal behavior, likely contributing to the large dengue outbreak in early 2018. Although subseasonal forecasts of rainfall for the December-January period in Réunion are skillful up to 4 weeks in advance, the outbreak could only have been forecast 2 weeks in advance, which along with seasonal forecast information could have provided enough time to enhance preparedness measures. Our research demonstrates the potential of using state-of-the-art subseasonal climate forecasts to produce actionable subseasonal dengue predictions. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first time subseasonal forecasts have been used this way.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laurel DiSera
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth InstituteColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Henrik Sjödin
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical MedicineUmeå UniversityUmeåSweden
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical MedicineUmeå UniversityUmeåSweden
| | - Yesim Tozan
- School of Global Public HealthNew York UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Bertrand Súdre
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and ControlStockholmSweden
| | - Herve Zeller
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and ControlStockholmSweden
| | - Ángel G. Muñoz
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth InstituteColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
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53
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Tozan Y, Sjödin H, Muñoz ÁG, Rocklöv J. Transmission dynamics of dengue and chikungunya in a changing climate: do we understand the eco-evolutionary response? Expert Rev Anti Infect Ther 2020; 18:1187-1193. [PMID: 32741233 DOI: 10.1080/14787210.2020.1794814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION We are witnessing an alarming increase in the burden and range of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases. The transmission dynamics of arboviral diseases is highly sensitive to climate and weather and is further affected by non-climatic factors such as human mobility, urbanization, and disease control. As evidence also suggests, climate-driven changes in species interactions may trigger evolutionary responses in both vectors and pathogens with important consequences for disease transmission patterns. AREAS COVERED Focusing on dengue and chikungunya, we review the current knowledge and challenges in our understanding of disease risk in a rapidly changing climate. We identify the most critical research gaps that limit the predictive skill of arbovirus risk models and the development of early warning systems, and conclude by highlighting the potentially important research directions to stimulate progress in this field. EXPERT OPINION Future studies that aim to predict the risk of arboviral diseases need to consider the interactions between climate modes at different timescales, the effects of the many non-climatic drivers, as well as the potential for climate-driven adaptation and evolution in vectors and pathogens. An important outcome of such studies would be an enhanced ability to promulgate early warning information, initiate adequate response, and enhance preparedness capacity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yesim Tozan
- School of Global Public Health, New York University , New York, NY, USA
| | - Henrik Sjödin
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University , Umeå, Sweden
| | - Ángel G Muñoz
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the Earth Institute at Columbia University , New York, NY, USA
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University , Umeå, Sweden.,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg , Heidelberg, Germany
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54
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Shabbir W, Pilz J, Naeem A. A spatial-temporal study for the spread of dengue depending on climate factors in Pakistan (2006-2017). BMC Public Health 2020; 20:995. [PMID: 32586294 PMCID: PMC7318413 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-08846-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2019] [Accepted: 05/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In Pakistan, dengue fever has become a major concerning factor, given that it is a relatively new disease compared to malaria. The number of people affected by dengue fever has increased at least 10-fold in the last 15 years in specific areas of Pakistan. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse this disease to reduce or prevent the effects of dengue fever in the region. METHODS Geographical information system (GIS) maps are used to identify the intensity of the spread according to the count of affected people in our study area. Generalised linear modelling (GLM) is used to study the significance of factors associated with dengue fever. RESULTS The dengue virus is present throughout the year in specific areas of Pakistan. Karachi and Lahore are most significantly affected with cases in these two most populous cities of Pakistan reported every year. In the study period (2006-2017), 2011 was the most devastating year for Pakistan. Lahore recorded more than 17,000 confirmed cases with 290 deaths in a single year. The GLM analysis shows rainfall, the average maximum temperature, and hospitals to be significant factors in the prevalence of dengue fever. CONCLUSION This study finds that Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are two of the primarily vulnerable provinces for the spread of dengue fever. Punjab has observed sporadic increases in dengue fever cases. In Pakistan, dengue cases increase in the rainfall season, especially during monsoon season. Lack of proper hospitals and clinics are another major factor, and mobile hospitals are needed in remote hotspot regions often affected by dengue fever. Finally, improved sanitation systems in metropoles would facilitate reducing breeding grounds for Aedes Aegypti larvae.
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Affiliation(s)
- Waqas Shabbir
- Institute of Statistics, Alpen Adria University of Klagenfurt, University Street 65-67, Klagenfurt, 9020, Carinthia, Austria.
| | - Juergen Pilz
- Institute of Statistics, Alpen Adria University of Klagenfurt, University Street 65-67, Klagenfurt, 9020, Carinthia, Austria
| | - Amna Naeem
- Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, 45000, Pakistan
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55
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Ravasi D, Parrondo Monton D, Guidi V, Flacio E. Evaluation of the public health risk for autochthonous transmission of mosquito-borne viruses in southern Switzerland. MEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY 2020; 34:244-250. [PMID: 31802522 DOI: 10.1111/mve.12421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2019] [Revised: 09/23/2019] [Accepted: 11/15/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever are becoming more frequent around the world. In Switzerland, autochthonous cases have not been reported so far, although the presence of the vector Aedes albopictus in urban areas of southern Switzerland increases the risk of indigenous transmissions subsequent to imported cases. In 2018, the potential risk of an outbreak of arboviral diseases was assessed in five municipalities of southern Switzerland. The population abundance of Ae. albopictus was evaluated during the mosquito active season by the mean number of Ae. albopictus bites per day per person (estimated using the human landing collection method) and the risk of outbreak in the case of the introduction of chikungunya, dengue or Zika viruses was estimated. In the five localities investigated, no epidemic risk appeared to be present for any of the arboviruses taken into consideration in the initial months (i.e. mid-May to end of July) of Ae. albopictus activity. In the case of the introduction of chikungunya (mutated or not), dengue (serotype 1) or Zika (African lineage) viruses during mid-end August, an epidemic could have occurred in all the municipalities investigated. In mid-end September, the introduction of same arboviruses could have led to an epidemic in three of the five municipalities investigated.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Ravasi
- Laboratory of Applied Microbiology, Department of Environment, Construction and Design, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Bellinzona, Switzerland
| | - D Parrondo Monton
- Laboratory of Applied Microbiology, Department of Environment, Construction and Design, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Bellinzona, Switzerland
| | - V Guidi
- Laboratory of Applied Microbiology, Department of Environment, Construction and Design, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Bellinzona, Switzerland
| | - E Flacio
- Laboratory of Applied Microbiology, Department of Environment, Construction and Design, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Bellinzona, Switzerland
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Caputo B, Manica M. Mosquito surveillance and disease outbreak risk models to inform mosquito-control operations in Europe. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2020; 39:101-108. [PMID: 32403040 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2020.03.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2019] [Revised: 03/09/2020] [Accepted: 03/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Surveillance programs are needed to guide mosquito-control operations to reduce both nuisance and the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Understanding the thresholds for action to reduce both nuisance and the risk of arbovirus transmission is becoming critical. To date, mosquito surveillance is mainly implemented to inform about pathogen transmission risks rather than to reduce mosquito nuisance even though lots of control efforts are aimed at the latter. Passive surveillance, such as digital monitoring (validated by entomological trapping), is a powerful tool to record biting rates in real time. High-quality data are essential to model the risk of arbovirus diseases. For invasive pathogens, efforts are needed to predict the arrival of infected hosts linked to the small-scale vector to host contact ratio, while for endemic pathogens efforts are needed to set up region-wide highly structured surveillance measures to understand seasonal re-activation and pathogen transmission in order to carry out effective control operations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beniamino Caputo
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Rome La Sapienza, Piazzale A. Moro 5, 38010, 00185 Rome, Italy.
| | - Mattia Manica
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all' Adige, Italy
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57
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Metelmann S, Caminade C, Jones AE, Medlock JM, Baylis M, Morse AP. The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates. J R Soc Interface 2020; 16:20180761. [PMID: 30862279 PMCID: PMC6451397 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2018.0761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is able to transmit various pathogens to humans and animals and it has already caused minor outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in southern Europe. Alarmingly, it is spreading northwards and its eggs have been found in the UK in 2016 and 2017. Climate-driven models can help to analyse whether this originally subtropical species could become established in northern Europe. But so far, these models have not considered the impact of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) experienced by mosquitoes in the field. Here, we describe a dynamical model for the life cycle of Ae. albopictus, taking into account the DTR, rainfall, photoperiod and human population density. We develop a new metric for habitat suitability and drive our model with different climate data sets to analyse the UK's suitability for this species. For now, most of the UK seems to be rather unsuitable, except for some densely populated and high importation risk areas in southeast England. But this picture changes in the next 50 years: future scenarios suggest that Ae. albopictus could become established over almost all of England and Wales, indicating the need for continued mosquito surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Metelmann
- 1 Institute for Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool Liverpool , UK.,3 NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections , Liverpool , UK
| | - C Caminade
- 1 Institute for Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool Liverpool , UK.,3 NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections , Liverpool , UK
| | - A E Jones
- 1 Institute for Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool Liverpool , UK
| | - J M Medlock
- 3 NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections , Liverpool , UK.,4 Medical Entomology Group, Public Health England , London UK
| | - M Baylis
- 1 Institute for Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool Liverpool , UK.,3 NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections , Liverpool , UK
| | - A P Morse
- 2 School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool Liverpool , UK.,3 NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections , Liverpool , UK
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58
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Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2130. [PMID: 32358588 PMCID: PMC7195482 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 112] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2019] [Accepted: 03/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential. Understanding how life cycles of vectors respond to climatic factors is important to predict potential shifts in vector-borne disease risk in the coming decades. Here the authors develop a mechanistic phenological model for the invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti and apply it to project shifts under climate change scenarios.
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59
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Xu Z, Bambrick H, Frentiu FD, Devine G, Yakob L, Williams G, Hu W. Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008118. [PMID: 32119666 PMCID: PMC7067491 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2019] [Revised: 03/12/2020] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. METHODS Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. RESULTS Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. CONCLUSIONS Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Francesca D. Frentiu
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Gregor Devine
- Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Laith Yakob
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gail Williams
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- * E-mail:
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60
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Liu Y, Lillepold K, Semenza JC, Tozan Y, Quam MBM, Rocklöv J. Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 182:109114. [PMID: 31927301 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2019] [Revised: 01/01/2020] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Globally, dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya are important viral mosquito-borne diseases that infect millions of people annually. Their geographic range includes not only tropical areas but also sub-tropical and temperate zones such as Japan and Italy. The relative severity of these arboviral disease outbreaks can vary depending on the setting. In this study we explore variation in the epidemiologic potential of outbreaks amongst these climatic zones and arboviruses in order to elucidate potential reasons behind such differences. METHODOLOGY We reviewed the peer-reviewed literature (PubMed) to obtain basic reproduction number (R0) estimates for dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya from tropical, sub-tropical and temperate regions. We also computed R0 estimates for temperate and sub-tropical climate zones, based on the outbreak curves in the initial outbreak phase. Lastly we compared these estimates across climate zones, defined by latitude. RESULTS Of 2115 studies, we reviewed the full text of 128 studies and included 65 studies in our analysis. Our results suggest that the R0 of an arboviral outbreak depends on climate zone, with lower R0 estimates, on average, in temperate zones (R0 = 2.03) compared to tropical (R0 = 3.44) and sub-tropical zones (R0 = 10.29). The variation in R0 was considerable, ranging from 0.16 to 65. The largest R0 was for dengue (65) and was estimated by the Ross-Macdonald model in the tropical zone, whereas the smallest R0 (0.16) was for Zika virus and was estimated statistically from an outbreak curve in the sub-tropical zone. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate climate zone to be an important determinant of the basic reproduction number, R0, for dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya. The role of other factors as determinants of R0, such as methods, environmental and social conditions, and disease control, should be further investigated. The results suggest that R0 may increase in temperate regions in response to global warming, and highlight the increasing need for strengthening preparedness and control activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Liu
- School of International Business, Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College, Zhangzhou, 363105, China.
| | - Kate Lillepold
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Yesim Tozan
- New York University, College of Global Public Health, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Mikkel B M Quam
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
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61
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Tozan Y, Headley TY, Sewe MO, Schwartz E, Shemesh T, Cramer JP, Eberhardt KA, Ramharter M, Harrison N, Leder K, Angheben A, Hatz C, Neumayr A, Chen LH, De Pijper CA, Grobusch MP, Wilder-Smith A. A Prospective Study on the Impact and Out-of-Pocket Costs of Dengue Illness in International Travelers. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020; 100:1525-1533. [PMID: 30994088 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.18-0780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Although the costs of dengue illness to patients and households have been extensively studied in endemic populations, international travelers have not been the focus of costing studies. As globalization and human travel activities intensify, travelers are increasingly at risk for emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, such as dengue. This exploratory study aims to investigate the impact and out-of-pocket costs of dengue illness among travelers. We conducted a prospective study in adult travelers with laboratory-confirmed dengue and recruited patients at travel medicine clinics in eight different countries from December 2013 to December 2015. Using a structured questionnaire, we collected information on patients and their health-care utilization and out-of-pocket expenditures, as well as income and other financial losses they incurred because of dengue illness. A total of 90 patients participated in the study, most of whom traveled for tourism (74%) and visited countries in Asia (82%). Although 22% reported hospitalization and 32% receiving ambulatory care while traveling, these percentages were higher at 39% and 71%, respectively, after returning home. The out-of-pocket direct and indirect costs of dengue illness were US$421 (SD 744) and US$571 (SD 1,913) per episode, respectively, averaging to a total out-of-pocket cost of US$992 (SD 2,052) per episode. The study findings suggest that international travelers incur important direct and indirect costs because of dengue-related illness. This study is the first to date to investigate the impact and out-of-pocket costs of travel-related dengue illness from the patient's perspective and paves the way for future economic burden studies in this population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yesim Tozan
- New York University College of Global Public Health, New York, New York.,New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Tyler Y Headley
- New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Maquines Odhiambo Sewe
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health Unit, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Eli Schwartz
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Tamar Shemesh
- Sheba Medical Center, Institute of Tropical and Travel Medicine, Ramat-Gan, Israel
| | - Jakob P Cramer
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine and I Department of Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Kirsten A Eberhardt
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine and I Department of Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Michael Ramharter
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine and I Department of Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Nicole Harrison
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Karin Leder
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University and Victorian Infectious Disease Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Andrea Angheben
- Centre for Tropical Diseases, IRCCS Hospital Sacro Cuore-Don Calabria, Verona, Italy
| | - Christoph Hatz
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.,Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Andreas Neumayr
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Lin Hwei Chen
- Mount Auburn Hospital, Cambridge, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Cornelis A De Pijper
- Division of Internal Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Center for Tropical Medicine and Travel Medicine, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Martin P Grobusch
- Division of Internal Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Center for Tropical Medicine and Travel Medicine, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Annelies Wilder-Smith
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.,Heidelberg Global Health Institute, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.,Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health Unit, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
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Ahmed AM, Mohammed AT, Vu TT, Khattab M, Doheim MF, Ashraf Mohamed A, Abdelhamed MM, Shamandy BE, Dawod MT, Alesaei WA, Kassem MA, Mattar OM, Smith C, Hirayama K, Huy NT. Prevalence and burden of dengue infection in Europe: A systematic review and meta‐analysis. Rev Med Virol 2019; 30:e2093. [DOI: 10.1002/rmv.2093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2019] [Revised: 11/11/2019] [Accepted: 11/12/2019] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Thao T. Vu
- School of Health and Biomedical SciencesRMIT University Melbourne Victoria Australia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Wafaa Ali Alesaei
- Faculty of MedicineMisr University for Science and Technology Giza Egypt
| | - Mahmoud Attia Kassem
- Medical Oncology DepartmentThe Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center Columbus Ohio USA
| | | | - Chris Smith
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global HealthNagasaki University Nagasaki Japan
- Department of Clinical ResearchLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK
| | - Kenji Hirayama
- Department of Immunogenetics, Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), School of Tropical Medicine and Global HealthNagasaki University Nagasaki Japan
| | - Nguyen Tien Huy
- Evidence Based Medicine Research GroupTon Duc Thang University Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam
- Faculty of Applied SciencesTon Duc Thang University Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam
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63
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Montes-Grajales D, Puerta-Guardo H, Espinosa DA, Harris E, Caicedo-Torres W, Olivero-Verbel J, Martínez-Romero E. In silico drug repurposing for the identification of potential candidate molecules against arboviruses infection. Antiviral Res 2019; 173:104668. [PMID: 31786251 DOI: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2019.104668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2019] [Accepted: 11/27/2019] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Arboviral diseases caused by dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses represent a major public health problem worldwide, especially in tropical areas where millions of infections occur every year. The aim of this research was to identify candidate molecules for the treatment of these diseases among the drugs currently available in the market, through in silico screening and subsequent in vitro evaluation with cell culture models of DENV and ZIKV infections. Numerous pharmaceutical compounds from antibiotics to chemotherapeutic agents presented high in silico binding affinity for the viral proteins, including ergotamine, antrafenine, natamycin, pranlukast, nilotinib, itraconazole, conivaptan and novobiocin. These five last compounds were tested in vitro, being pranlukast the one that exhibited the best antiviral activity. Further in vitro assays for this compound showed a significant inhibitory effect on DENV and ZIKV infection of human monocytic cells and human hepatocytes (Huh-7 cells) with potential abrogation of virus entry. Finally, intrinsic fluorescence analyses suggest that pranlukast may have some level of interaction with three viral proteins of DENV: envelope, capsid, and NS1. Due to its promising results, suitable accessibility in the market and reduced restrictions compared to other pharmaceuticals; the anti-asthmatic pranlukast is proposed as a drug candidate against DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV, supporting further in vitro and in vivo assessment of the potential of this and other lead compounds that exhibited good affinity scores in silico as therapeutic agents or scaffolds for the development of new drugs against arboviral diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diana Montes-Grajales
- Environmental and Computational Chemistry Group, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Zaragocilla Campus, University of Cartagena, Cartagena, 130015, Colombia.
| | - Henry Puerta-Guardo
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720-3370, USA
| | - Diego A Espinosa
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720-3370, USA
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720-3370, USA
| | - William Caicedo-Torres
- Grupo de Investigación de Tecnologías Aplicadas y Sistemas de Información, School of Engineering, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, Cartagena, 130010, Colombia
| | - Jesus Olivero-Verbel
- Environmental and Computational Chemistry Group, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Zaragocilla Campus, University of Cartagena, Cartagena, 130015, Colombia
| | - Esperanza Martínez-Romero
- Centro de Ciencias Genómicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Cuernavaca-Morelos 565-A, Mexico
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64
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Lwande OW, Obanda V, Lindström A, Ahlm C, Evander M, Näslund J, Bucht G. Globe-Trotting Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus: Risk Factors for Arbovirus Pandemics. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2019; 20:71-81. [PMID: 31556813 PMCID: PMC7041325 DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2019.2486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Two species of Aedes (Ae.) mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) are primary vectors for emerging arboviruses that are a significant threat to public health and economic burden worldwide. Distribution of these vectors and the associated arboviruses, such as dengue virus, chikungunya virus, yellow fever virus, and Zika virus, was for a long time restricted by geographical, ecological, and biological factors. Presently, arbovirus emergence and dispersion are more rapid and geographically widespread, largely due to expansion of the range for these two mosquitoes that have exploited the global transportation network, land perturbation, and failure to contain the mosquito population coupled with enhanced vector competence. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may also sustain transmission between humans without having to depend on their natural reservoir forest cycles due to arthropod adaptation to urbanization. Currently, there is no single strategy that is adequate to control these vectors, especially when managing arbovirus outbreaks. Objective: This review aimed at presenting the characteristics and abilities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, which can drive a global public health risk, and suggests strategies for prevention and control. Methods: This review presents the geographic range, reproduction and ecology, vector competence, genetic evolution, and biological and chemical control of these two mosquito species and how they have changed and developed over time combined with factors that may drive pandemics and mitigation measures. Conclusion: We suggest that more efforts should be geared toward the development of a concerted multidisciplinary approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivia Wesula Lwande
- Virology Section, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.,Consortium for Epidemiology and Ecology (CEER-Africa), Nairobi, Kenya.,Arctic Research Centre at Umeå University, Sweden University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Vincent Obanda
- Consortium for Epidemiology and Ecology (CEER-Africa), Nairobi, Kenya.,Veterinary Services Department, Kenya Wildlife Service, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Clas Ahlm
- Arctic Research Centre at Umeå University, Sweden University, Umeå, Sweden.,Infection and Immunology Section, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Magnus Evander
- Virology Section, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.,Arctic Research Centre at Umeå University, Sweden University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jonas Näslund
- Swedish Defence Research Agency, CBRN, Defence and Security, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Göran Bucht
- Swedish Defence Research Agency, CBRN, Defence and Security, Umeå, Sweden
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65
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Succo T, Noël H, Nikolay B, Maquart M, Cochet A, Leparc-Goffart I, Catelinois O, Salje H, Pelat C, de Crouy-Chanel P, de Valk H, Cauchemez S, Rousseau C. Dengue serosurvey after a 2-month long outbreak in Nîmes, France, 2015: was there more than met the eye? ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2019; 23. [PMID: 29897042 PMCID: PMC6152166 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2018.23.23.1700482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Clusters of dengue cases have recently become more frequent in areas of southern France colonised by the vector mosquito Aedes albopictus. In July 2015, a 2-month outbreak of dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) was reported in Nîmes. Aim: We conducted a serosurvey in the affected area at the end of the vector activity period to determine the true extent of dengue transmission. Methods: We collected capillary blood from consenting household members, and information on their medical and travel histories, and exposure to mosquito bites. Recent infections were identified using IgM and IgG anti-DENV ELISA, followed, when positive, by plaque reduction neutralisation tests on serum against DENV 1–4 and West Nile virus. The prevalence estimator was calibrated on reference demographic data. We quantified the spatial clustering of dengue cases within the affected community and inferred the transmission tree. Results: The study participation rate was 39% (564/1,431). Three of 564 participants tested positive for DENV-1 infection (after marginal calibration, 0.41%; 95% confidence interval: 0.00–0.84). The spatial analysis showed that cases were clustered at the household level. Most participants perceived the presence of mosquitos as abundant (83%) and reported frequent mosquito bites (57%). We incidentally identified six past West Nile virus infections (0.9%; 95% CI: 0.2–1.6). Conclusion: This serosurvey confirms the potential for arboviral diseases to cause outbreaks − albeit limited for now − in France and Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tiphanie Succo
- These authors contributed equally to the study and writing of the article.,The French Public Health Agency (Santé publique France), Regional unit (Cire) Occitanie, Saint-Maurice, France
| | - Harold Noël
- The French Public Health Agency (Santé publique France), Saint-Maurice, France.,These authors contributed equally to the study and writing of the article
| | - Birgit Nikolay
- Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.,Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA3012, Paris, France.,Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Marianne Maquart
- Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées, National Reference Center for arboviruses, Marseille, France
| | - Amandine Cochet
- The French Public Health Agency (Santé publique France), Regional unit (Cire) Occitanie, Saint-Maurice, France
| | - Isabelle Leparc-Goffart
- Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées, National Reference Center for arboviruses, Marseille, France
| | - Olivier Catelinois
- These authors contributed equally to the study and writing of the article
| | - Henrik Salje
- Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.,Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA3012, Paris, France.,Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Camille Pelat
- The French Public Health Agency (Santé publique France), Saint-Maurice, France
| | | | - Henriette de Valk
- The French Public Health Agency (Santé publique France), Saint-Maurice, France
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.,Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA3012, Paris, France.,Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Cyril Rousseau
- The French Public Health Agency (Santé publique France), Regional unit (Cire) Occitanie, Saint-Maurice, France
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66
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Khan MD, Thi Vu HH, Lai QT, Ahn JW. Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E2799. [PMID: 31390751 PMCID: PMC6696070 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16152799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2019] [Revised: 07/31/2019] [Accepted: 08/01/2019] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohd Danish Khan
- Resources Recycling Department, University of Science and Technology, (UST), 217, Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34113, Korea
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Hong Ha Thi Vu
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Quang Tuan Lai
- Resources Recycling Department, University of Science and Technology, (UST), 217, Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34113, Korea
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Ji Whan Ahn
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea.
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67
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Ammar SE, Mclntyre M, Swan T, Kasper J, Derraik JGB, Baker MG, Hales S. Intercepted Mosquitoes at New Zealand's Ports of Entry, 2001 to 2018: Current Status and Future Concerns. Trop Med Infect Dis 2019; 4:E101. [PMID: 31284464 PMCID: PMC6789606 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed4030101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2019] [Revised: 07/02/2019] [Accepted: 07/02/2019] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Mosquito vectors are extending their range via international travel and trade. Climate change makes New Zealand an increasingly suitable environment for less tropically adapted exotic mosquito vectors to become established. This shift will add a multiplier effect to existing risks of both the establishment of new species and of resident exotic species extending into new areas. We describe trends in the border interceptions of exotic mosquitoes and evaluate the role of imported goods as a pathway for these introductions. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, the two most commonly intercepted species, were only intercepted in Auckland. Used tyres and machinery were the main mode of entry for both species. The majority of Ae. albopictus were transported as larvae by sea, while most Ae. aegypti were transported as adults by air. Continuing introductions of these mosquitoes, mainly arriving via Japan or Australia, increase the risk of the local transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in New Zealand in general and in the Auckland region in particular. These findings reinforce the need for a high performing and adequately resourced national biosecurity system, particularly port surveillance and inspection. Recommended biosecurity improvements are described.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sherif E Ammar
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand.
| | - Mary Mclntyre
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
| | - Tom Swan
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Queensland 4814, Australia
| | - Julia Kasper
- Museum of New Zealand, Te Papa Tongarewa, Wellington 6011, New Zealand
| | - José G B Derraik
- Liggins Institute, University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - Michael G Baker
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
| | - Simon Hales
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington 6021, New Zealand
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68
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Putra PS, Susanto H, Nuraini N. Turing Patterns of Non-linear S-I Model on Random and Real-Structure Networks with Diarrhea Data. Sci Rep 2019; 9:8892. [PMID: 31221999 PMCID: PMC6586790 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-45069-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2019] [Accepted: 05/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Most developed models for solving problems in epidemiology use deterministic approach. To cover the lack of spatial sense in the method, one uses statistical modeling, reaction-diffusion in continuous medium, or multi-patch model to depict epidemic activities in several connected locations. Here, we show that an epidemic model that is set as an organized system on networks can yield Turing patterns and other interesting behaviors that are sensitive to the initial conditions. The formed patterns can be used to determine the epidemic arrival time, its first peak occurrence and the peak duration. These epidemic quantities are beneficial to identify contribution of a disease source node to the others. Using a real structure network, the system also exhibits a comparable disease spread pattern of Diarrhea in Jakarta.
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Affiliation(s)
- Prama Setia Putra
- Industrial and Financial Mathematics Research Group, Department of Mathematics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Ganesha 10, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia.
| | - Hadi Susanto
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, United Kingdom
| | - Nuning Nuraini
- Industrial and Financial Mathematics Research Group, Department of Mathematics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Ganesha 10, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia
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69
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Lillepold K, Rocklöv J, Liu-Helmersson J, Sewe M, Semenza JC. More arboviral disease outbreaks in continental Europe due to the warming climate? J Travel Med 2019; 26:5372542. [PMID: 30850834 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taz017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2019] [Accepted: 03/07/2019] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kate Lillepold
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm Sweden
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jing Liu-Helmersson
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.,Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Maquins Sewe
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm Sweden
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70
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Do we know how mosquito disease vectors will respond to climate change? Emerg Top Life Sci 2019; 3:115-132. [DOI: 10.1042/etls20180125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2019] [Revised: 04/03/2019] [Accepted: 04/05/2019] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases are on the rise globally. Besides invasion processes and the increasing connectivity between distant regions through the trade of goods and human mobility, climate change is seen as an important driver for changing the likelihood of occurrence of vectors and diseases, respectively. Ectothermic insects respond directly to thermal conditions and thus we can expect them to follow climatic trends. However, a variety of species and different stages in their life cycles need to be considered. Here, we review the current literature in this field and disentangle the state of knowledge and the challenges and open questions for future research. The integration of diurnal temperature ranges in prospective experimental studies will strongly improve the knowledge of mosquitoes’ ecology and mosquito-borne disease transmission for temperate regions in particular. In addition, invasive mosquitoes are known to rapidly adapt to the climatic conditions, but the underlying processes are not yet fully understood.
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71
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Climate change and the rising infectiousness of dengue. Emerg Top Life Sci 2019; 3:133-142. [PMID: 33523146 PMCID: PMC7288996 DOI: 10.1042/etls20180123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2019] [Revised: 03/22/2019] [Accepted: 03/28/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
The disease burden of dengue has been steadily rising over the last half-century due to a multitude of factors, including global trade and travel, urbanization, population growth, and climate variability and change, that facilitate conductive conditions for the proliferation of dengue vectors and viruses. This review describes how climate, specifically temperature, affects the vectors’ ability to cause and sustain outbreaks, and how the infectiousness of dengue is influenced by climatic change. The review is focused on the core concepts and frameworks derived in the area of epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases and outlines the sensitivity of vectorial capacity and vector-to-human transmission on climatic conditions. It further reviews studies linking mathematical or statistical models of disease transmission to scenarios of projected climate change and provides recommendations for future research directions.
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72
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Dengue Vector Control through Community Empowerment: Lessons Learned from a Community-Based Study in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16061013. [PMID: 30897770 PMCID: PMC6466136 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16061013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2019] [Revised: 03/16/2019] [Accepted: 03/17/2019] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
Effort to control dengue transmission requires community participation to ensure its sustainability. We carried out a knowledge attitude and practice (KAP) survey of dengue prevention to inform the design of a vector control intervention. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in June–August 2014 among 521 households in two villages of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Demographic characteristics and KAP questions were asked using a self-managed questionnaire. Knowledge, attitudes and practice scores were summarized for the population according to sex, age, occupation and education. The average knowledge score was rather poor—3.7 out of 8—although both attitude and practice scores were good: 25.5 out of 32 and 9.2 out of 11 respectively. The best knowledge within the different groups were found among women, the age group 30–44 years, people with a university degree and government employees. Best practice scores were found among retired people and housewives. There were several significant gaps in knowledge with respect to basic dengue symptoms, preventive practices and biting and breeding habits of the Aedes mosquito. In contrast, people’s practices were considered good, although many respondents failed to recognize outdoor containers as mosquito breeding sites. Accordingly, we developed a vector control card to support people’s container cleaning practices. The card was assessed for eight consecutive weeks in 2015, with pre-post larvae positive houses and containers as primary outcome measures. The use of control cards reached a low engagement of the community. Despite ongoing campaigns aiming to engage the community in dengue prevention, knowledge levels were meagre and adherence to taught routines poor in many societal groups. To increase motivation levels, bottom-up strategies are needed to involve all community members in dengue control, not only those that already comply with best practices.
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73
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Jánová E. Emerging and threatening vector-borne zoonoses in the world and in Europe: a brief update. Pathog Glob Health 2019; 113:49-57. [PMID: 30916639 PMCID: PMC6493274 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2019.1598127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Climatic changes, landscape management, massive human, animal and commodity transportation represent important factors which are contributing to the spread of zoonotic diseases. The environmental and socioeconomic factors affecting the incidence of vector-borne zoonoses and possibilities for the reduction of disease impacts are discussed in the article. The most important zoonoses with expanding area of incidence and/or increasing occurrence are summarized, with special emphasis on the European region. While some diseases and their respective pathogens are indigenous to Europe (e.g. Lyme disease), others have been introduced to Europe from tropical areas (e.g. chikungunya or dengue fever). These emerging diseases may represent a serious threat in near future and better understanding of their spreading mechanisms, pathogenesis and consequent treatment is very important.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva Jánová
- Department of Animal Genetics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Veterinary and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
- Ceitec VFU, University of Veterinary and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
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74
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Abstract
Climate change is already expanding the geographic footprint of arboviral infections. In this article we consider the impact of climate change on three arboviruses with particular consideration of the effect on Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- James Whitehorn
- Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sophie Yacoub
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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75
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Watson-Brown P, Viennet E, Mincham G, Williams CR, Jansen CC, Montgomery BL, Flower RLP, Faddy HM. Epidemic potential of Zika virus in Australia: implications for blood transfusion safety. Transfusion 2019; 59:648-658. [PMID: 30618208 DOI: 10.1111/trf.15095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2018] [Revised: 09/10/2018] [Accepted: 10/18/2018] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Zika virus (ZIKV) is transfusion-transmissible. In Australia the primary vector, Aedes aegypti, is established in the north-east, such that local transmission is possible following importation of an index case, which has the potential to impact on blood transfusion safety and public health. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) to model the epidemic potential of ZIKV in Australian locations, compared this with the ecologically similar dengue viruses (DENV), and examined possible implications for blood transfusion safety. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Varying estimates of vector control efficiency and extrinsic incubation period, "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios of monthly R 0 for ZIKV and DENV were modeled from 1996 to 2015 in 11 areas. We visualized the geographical distribution of blood donors in relation to areas with epidemic potential for ZIKV. RESULTS Epidemic potential (R 0 > 1) existed for ZIKV and DENV throughout the study period in a number of locations in northern Australia (Cairns, Darwin, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, Townsville, and Brisbane) during the warmer months of the year. R 0 for DENV was greater than ZIKV and was broadly consistent with annual estimates in Cairns. Increased vector control efficiency markedly reduced the epidemic potential and shortened the season of local transmission. Australian locations that provide the greatest number of blood donors did not have epidemic potential for ZIKV. CONCLUSION We estimate that areas of north-eastern Australia could sustain local transmission of ZIKV. This early contribution to understanding the epidemic potential of ZIKV may assist in the assessment and management of threats to blood transfusion safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Watson-Brown
- Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.,School of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Herston, Queensland, Australia
| | - Elvina Viennet
- Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gina Mincham
- School of Pharmacy and Medical Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Craig R Williams
- School of Pharmacy and Medical Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Cassie C Jansen
- Communicable Diseases Branch, Department of Health, Queensland Health, Herston, Queensland, Australia
| | - Brian L Montgomery
- Metro South Public Health Unit, Queensland Health, Coopers Plain, Queensland, Australia
| | - Robert L P Flower
- Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
| | - Helen M Faddy
- Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.,School of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Herston, Queensland, Australia
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Caminade C, McIntyre KM, Jones AE. Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2019; 1436:157-173. [PMID: 30120891 PMCID: PMC6378404 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 239] [Impact Index Per Article: 47.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2018] [Revised: 07/12/2018] [Accepted: 07/17/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cyril Caminade
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global HealthUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic InfectionsLiverpoolUK
| | - K. Marie McIntyre
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global HealthUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic InfectionsLiverpoolUK
| | - Anne E. Jones
- Department of Mathematical SciencesUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
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Alaniz AJ, Carvajal MA, Bacigalupo A, Cattan PE. Global spatial assessment of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus: a scenario of Zika virus exposure. Epidemiol Infect 2018; 147:e52. [PMID: 30474578 PMCID: PMC6518585 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268818003102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2018] [Revised: 09/12/2018] [Accepted: 10/27/2018] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) is an arbovirus transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Recent scientific evidence on Culex quinquefasciatus has suggested its potential as a vector for ZIKV, which may change the current risk zones. We aimed to quantify the world population potentially exposed to ZIKV in a spatially explicit way, considering the primary vector (A. aegypti) and the potential vector (C. quinquefasciatus). Our model combined species distribution modelling of mosquito species with spatially explicit human population data to estimate ZIKV exposure risk. We estimated the potential global distribution of C. quinquefasciatus and estimated its potential interaction zones with A. aegypti. Then we evaluated the risk zones for ZIKV considering both vectors. Finally, we quantified and compared the people under risk associated with each vector by risk level, country and continent. We found that C. quinquefasciatus had a more temperate distribution until 42° in both hemispheres, while the risk involving A. aegypti is concentrated mainly in tropical latitudes until 35° in both hemispheres. Globally, 4.2 billion people are under risk associated with ZIKV. Around 2.6 billon people are under very high risk associated with C. quinquefasciatus and 1 billion people associated with A. aegypti. Several countries could be exposed to ZIKV, which emphasises the need to clarify the competence of C. quinquefasciatus as a potential vector as soon as possible. The models presented here represent a tool for risk management, public health planning, mosquito control and preventive actions, especially to focus efforts on the most affected areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto J. Alaniz
- Centro de Estudios en Ecología Espacial y Medio Ambiente – Ecogeografía, Santiago, Chile
- Laboratorio de Ecología, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Mario A. Carvajal
- Centro de Estudios en Ecología Espacial y Medio Ambiente – Ecogeografía, Santiago, Chile
| | - Antonella Bacigalupo
- Laboratorio de Ecología, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Pedro E. Cattan
- Laboratorio de Ecología, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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78
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Wilder-Smith A. Risk of Dengue in Travelers: Implications for Dengue Vaccination. Curr Infect Dis Rep 2018; 20:50. [DOI: 10.1007/s11908-018-0656-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
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79
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Bangert M, Latheef AT, Dev Pant S, Nishan Ahmed I, Saleem S, Nazla Rafeeq F, Abdulla M, Shamah F, Jamsheed Mohamed A, Fitzpatrick C, Velayudhan R, Shepard DS. Economic analysis of dengue prevention and case management in the Maldives. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006796. [PMID: 30260952 PMCID: PMC6177194 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2018] [Revised: 10/09/2018] [Accepted: 08/27/2018] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
As tourism is the mainstay of the Maldives' economy, this country recognizes the importance of controlling mosquito-borne diseases in an environmentally responsible manner. This study sought to estimate the economic costs of dengue in this Small Island Developing State of 417,492 residents. The authors reviewed relevant available documents on dengue epidemiology and conducted site visits and interviews with public health offices, health centers, referral hospitals, health insurers, and drug distribution organizations. An average of 1,543 symptomatic dengue cases was reported annually from 2011 through 2016. Intensive waste and water management on a resort island cost $1.60 per occupied room night. Local vector control programs on inhabited islands cost $35.93 for waste collection and $7.89 for household visits by community health workers per person per year. Ambulatory care for a dengue episode cost $49.87 at a health center, while inpatient episodes averaged $127.74 at a health center, $1,164.78 at a regional hospital, and $1,655.50 at a tertiary referral hospital. Overall, the cost of dengue illness in the Maldives in 2015 was $2,495,747 (0.06% of gross national income, GNI, or $6.10 per resident) plus $1,338,141 (0.03% of GNI or $3.27 per resident) for dengue surveillance. With tourism generating annual income of $898 and tax revenues of $119 per resident, results of an international analysis suggest that the risk of dengue lowers the country's gross annual income by $110 per resident (95% confidence interval $50 to $160) and its annual tax receipts by $14 per resident (95% confidence interval $7 to $22). Many innovative vector control efforts are affordable and could decrease future costs of dengue illness in the Maldives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Bangert
- Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Shushil Dev Pant
- World Health Organization Country Office, Malé, Republic of Maldives
| | | | - Sana Saleem
- Health Protection Agency, Ministry of Health, Malé, Republic of Maldives
| | | | - Moomina Abdulla
- Policy Planning and International Health, Ministry of Health, Malé, Republic of Maldives
| | - Fathimath Shamah
- Policy Planning and International Health, Ministry of Health, Malé, Republic of Maldives
| | - Ahmed Jamsheed Mohamed
- Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization Regional Office for South East Asia, New Delhi, India
| | - Christopher Fitzpatrick
- Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Raman Velayudhan
- Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Donald S. Shepard
- Schneider Institutes for Health Policy, Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Fontaine A, Lequime S, Moltini-Conclois I, Jiolle D, Leparc-Goffart I, Reiner RC, Lambrechts L. Epidemiological significance of dengue virus genetic variation in mosquito infection dynamics. PLoS Pathog 2018; 14:e1007187. [PMID: 30005085 PMCID: PMC6059494 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1007187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2018] [Revised: 07/25/2018] [Accepted: 06/28/2018] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
The kinetics of arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) transmission by their vectors have long been recognized as a powerful determinant of arbovirus epidemiology. The time interval between virus acquisition and transmission by the vector, termed extrinsic incubation period (EIP), combines with vector mortality rate and vector competence to determine the proportion of infected vectors that eventually become infectious. However, the dynamic nature of this process, and the amount of natural variation in transmission kinetics among arbovirus strains, are poorly documented empirically and are rarely considered in epidemiological models. Here, we combine newly generated empirical measurements in vivo and outbreak simulations in silico to assess the epidemiological significance of genetic variation in dengue virus (DENV) transmission kinetics by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. We found significant variation in the dynamics of systemic mosquito infection, a proxy for EIP, among eight field-derived DENV isolates representing the worldwide diversity of recently circulating type 1 strains. Using a stochastic agent-based model to compute time-dependent individual transmission probabilities, we predict that the observed variation in systemic mosquito infection kinetics may drive significant differences in the probability of dengue outbreak and the number of human infections. Our results demonstrate that infection dynamics in mosquitoes vary among wild-type DENV isolates and that this variation potentially affects the risk and magnitude of dengue outbreaks. Our quantitative assessment of DENV genetic variation in transmission kinetics contributes to improve our understanding of heterogeneities in arbovirus epidemiological dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Albin Fontaine
- Insect-Virus Interactions Group, Department of Genomes and Genetics, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- Unité de Parasitologie et Entomologie, Département des Maladies Infectieuses, Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées, Marseille, France
- Génomique Evolutive, Modélisation et Santé, Unité Mixte de Recherche 2000, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France
- Aix Marseille Université, IRD, AP-HM, SSA, UMR Vecteurs–Infections Tropicales et Méditerranéennes (VITROME), IHU—Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - Sebastian Lequime
- Insect-Virus Interactions Group, Department of Genomes and Genetics, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- Génomique Evolutive, Modélisation et Santé, Unité Mixte de Recherche 2000, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France
- KU Leuven Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Isabelle Moltini-Conclois
- Insect-Virus Interactions Group, Department of Genomes and Genetics, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- Génomique Evolutive, Modélisation et Santé, Unité Mixte de Recherche 2000, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France
| | - Davy Jiolle
- Insect-Virus Interactions Group, Department of Genomes and Genetics, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- Génomique Evolutive, Modélisation et Santé, Unité Mixte de Recherche 2000, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France
| | - Isabelle Leparc-Goffart
- Centre National de Référence des Arbovirus, Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées, Marseille, France
| | - Robert Charles Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Louis Lambrechts
- Insect-Virus Interactions Group, Department of Genomes and Genetics, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
- Génomique Evolutive, Modélisation et Santé, Unité Mixte de Recherche 2000, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France
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Lee H, Kim JE, Lee S, Lee CH. Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0199205. [PMID: 29953493 PMCID: PMC6023222 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0199205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2018] [Accepted: 06/04/2018] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We assess the potential risks of dengue outbreaks by means of the vector capacity and intensity under various RCP scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of the temperature-dependent parameters is performed to explore the effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics. Our results demonstrate that a higher temperature significantly enhances the potential threat of domestic dengue outbreaks in Korea. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of countermeasures on the cumulative incidence of humans and vectors. The current main control measures (comprising only travel restrictions) for infected humans in Korea are not as effective as combined control measures (travel restrictions and vector control), dramatically reducing the possibilities of dengue outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyojung Lee
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Jung Eun Kim
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
| | - Sunmi Lee
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea
| | - Chang Hyeong Lee
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
- * E-mail:
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Pichler V, Bellini R, Veronesi R, Arnoldi D, Rizzoli A, Lia RP, Otranto D, Montarsi F, Carlin S, Ballardini M, Antognini E, Salvemini M, Brianti E, Gaglio G, Manica M, Cobre P, Serini P, Velo E, Vontas J, Kioulos I, Pinto J, Della Torre A, Caputo B. First evidence of resistance to pyrethroid insecticides in Italian Aedes albopictus populations 26 years after invasion. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2018; 74:1319-1327. [PMID: 29278457 DOI: 10.1002/ps.4840] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2017] [Revised: 12/18/2017] [Accepted: 12/20/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aedes albopictus has spread during the last few decades all over the world. This has increased significantly the risk of exotic arbovirus transmission (e.g. chikungunya, dengue, and Zika) also in temperate areas, as demonstrated by the Chikungunya 2007 and 2017 outbreaks in northeastern and central Italy. Insecticides are an important tool for limiting the circulation of these mosquito-borne viruses. The aim of the present study was to address the gap in current knowledge of pyrethroid insecticide resistance of European Ae. albopictus populations, focusing on populations from Italy, Albania and Greece. RESULTS Bioassays for resistance to permethrin (0.75%), α-cypermethrin (0.05%) or deltamethrin (0.05%) were performed according to World Health Organization (WHO) protocols and showed reduced susceptibility (<90% mortality) of some Italian populations to permethrin and α-cypermethrin, but not to deltamethrin. CONCLUSION This study reports the first evidence of resistance to pyrethroids in adult Italian Ae. albopictus populations. Results refer to the season preceding the Chikungunya 2017 outbreak in central Italy and highlight the need to increase efforts to monitor the spread of insecticide resistance and the need to develop strategies to limit the spread of insecticide resistance, particularly in areas where extensive treatments have been carried out to contain disease outbreaks. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Verena Pichler
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Romeo Bellini
- Department of Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Centro Agricoltura Ambiente "G. Nicoli", Crevalcore, Italy
| | - Rodolfo Veronesi
- Department of Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Centro Agricoltura Ambiente "G. Nicoli", Crevalcore, Italy
| | | | | | | | - Domenico Otranto
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Bari, Valenzano, Italy
| | | | - Sara Carlin
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Legnaro, Italy
| | - Marco Ballardini
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale del Piemonte, Liguria e Valle d'Aosta, Torino, Italy
| | - Elisa Antognini
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale Umbria e Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | - Marco Salvemini
- Department of Biology, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy
| | - Emanuele Brianti
- Dipartimento di Scienze Veterinarie, Polo Universitario dell'Annunziata, Messina, Italy
| | - Gabriella Gaglio
- Dipartimento di Scienze Veterinarie, Polo Universitario dell'Annunziata, Messina, Italy
| | - Mattia Manica
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Pietro Cobre
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Paola Serini
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | | | - John Vontas
- Agricultural University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- Institute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology, Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas, Heraklion, Greece
| | | | - Joao Pinto
- Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Alessandra Della Torre
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Beniamino Caputo
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
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Viral immunogenicity determines epidemiological fitness in a cohort of DENV-1 infection in Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006525. [PMID: 29813061 PMCID: PMC5993327 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2017] [Revised: 06/08/2018] [Accepted: 05/14/2018] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) circulation depends on serotype, genotype and lineage replacement and turnover. In São José do Rio Preto, Brazil, we observed that the L6 lineage of DENV-1 (genotype V) remained the dominant circulating lineage even after the introduction of the L1 lineage. We investigated viral fitness and immunogenicity of the L1 and L6 lineages and which factors interfered with the dynamics of DENV epidemics. The results showed a more efficient replicative fitness of L1 over L6 in mosquitoes and in human and non-human primate cell lines. Infections by the L6 lineage were associated with reduced antigenicity, weak B and T cell stimulation and weak host immune system interactions, which were associated with higher viremia. Our data, therefore, demonstrate that reduced viral immunogenicity and consequent greater viremia determined the increased epidemiological fitness of DENV-1 L6 lineage in São José do Rio Preto.
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84
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Li C, Lu Y, Liu J, Wu X. Climate change and dengue fever transmission in China: Evidences and challenges. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 622-623:493-501. [PMID: 29220773 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2017] [Revised: 11/28/2017] [Accepted: 11/28/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Dengue Fever (DF) has become one of the most serious infectious diseases in China. Dengue virus and its vector (Aedes mosquito) are known to be sensitive to climate condition. Climate impacts DF through affecting three essential bioecological aspects: DF virus, vector (mosquito) and DF transmission environment. Weather-based DF model, mosquito model and climate model are the three pillars to help the prediction of DF distribution. Through a systematic review of literature between 1980 and 2017, this paper summarizes empirical evidences in China on the impact of climate change on DF; it further reviews the related DF incidence models and their findings on how changes in weather factors may impact DF occurrences in China. Compared with some well-known research projects in the western countries, there is a lack of knowledge in China regarding how the spatiotemporal distribution of DF will respond to climate change. However, being able to predict DF distribution is key to China's efforts to prevent and control DF transmission. We conclude this paper by recommending four focused areas for China: promoting more advanced research on the relationship between extreme weather events and DF, developing regional-specific models for the high risk regions of DF in south China, encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration between climate studies and health services, and enhancing public health education and management at national, regional and local levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenlu Li
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yongmei Lu
- Department of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX 78666-4684, USA.
| | - Jianing Liu
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Xiaoxu Wu
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
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85
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Petersen E, Petrosillo N, Koopmans M. Emerging infections-an increasingly important topic: review by the Emerging Infections Task Force. Clin Microbiol Infect 2018; 24:369-375. [PMID: 29155018 PMCID: PMC7129920 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmi.2017.10.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2017] [Revised: 10/20/2017] [Accepted: 10/30/2017] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This paper review trends in emerging infections and the need for increased clinical and laboratory surveillance. METHODS Factors that contributed to the emergence of recent outbreaks have been reviewed. Known, major outbreaks over the past two decades were reviewed. RESULTS We identified at least four major drivers of emergent infections: (i) increasing density of the human population; (ii) stress from farmland expansion on the environment; (iii) globalization of the food market and manufacturing; (iv) environmental contamination. The factors creating new opportunities for emerging infections include: (i) population growth; (ii) spread in health care facilities; (iii) an ageing population; (iv) international travel; (v) changing and expanding vector habitats. CONCLUSIONS Emerging infections are unpredictable. In this review we argue that to discover new trends in infectious diseases, the clinicians have to look for the unusual and unexpected and ensure proper diagnostics and that syndromic surveillance must be supported by highly specialized laboratory services. Mathematical modeling has not been able to predict outbreaks More emphasis on the biology of evolution is needed. EID rarely stands out as unusual, and the continuous pressure on health care budgets forces clinicians and laboratories to prioritize their diagnostic work-up to common and treatable conditions. The European Society for Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, ESCMID, has established an Emerging Infections Task Force, EITaF, to strengthen the activities of the society on emerging infections and ensure that emerging infections is included in differential diagnostic considerations in everyday clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Petersen
- Institute for Clinical Medicine, University of Aarhus, Denmark and Department of Infectious Diseases, The Royal Hospital, Muscat, Oman.
| | - N Petrosillo
- Clinical and Research Department, National Institute for Infectious Diseases 'Lazzaro Spallanzani', IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - M Koopmans
- Viroscience Department, Erasmus University of Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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86
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Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe. Sci Rep 2018; 8:4629. [PMID: 29545610 PMCID: PMC5854675 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2017] [Accepted: 02/20/2018] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
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87
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Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is an emergent worldwide public health problem. Historically, 84 countries have reported vector-borne ZIKV transmission, 61 of which report on-going transmission. It is a Flavivirus transmitted through arthropods belonging to the Aedes genus. Since 2015, ZIKV infections have increased dramatically; with 1.3 million people infected during 2015 in Brazil alone. This paper's objective is to highlight the conjectural epidemiological points of the virus' dissemination. The digital archives Pubmed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane were searched for papers that assessed aspects of ZIKV transmission and epidemiology. The first isolation occurred in Uganda in 1947. Since then, important outbreaks were documented globally. Consequently, an emergent public health problem arose from a rapidly increasing incidence and its association with the development of neurological diseases such as microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Key factors in the successful containment of outbreaks include surveillance of mosquitos in the neighbourhood, an early mosquito control treatment, an assertive information campaign, and the involvement of the local population and healthcare workers. As such, while ZIKV seems to be spreading globally in a similar manner to other arboviruses, such as Dengue and Chikungunya viruses, it can also be rapidly contained due to the pre-existing availability of necessary resources and regulatory tools as control measures. This review aims to provide a description of those characteristics of ZIKV infection that may be useful in the construction of effective outbreak control strategies.
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Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15020187. [PMID: 29360797 PMCID: PMC5857046 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15020187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2017] [Revised: 01/12/2018] [Accepted: 01/17/2018] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal.
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Pinto AA, Zilberman D. Prospective Study About the Influence of Human Mobility in Dengue Transmission in the State of Rio de Janeiro. SPRINGER PROCEEDINGS IN MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS 2018. [PMCID: PMC7123889 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-74086-7_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Dengue is a human arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes and it is currently a major public health problem in which around 2–5 billion people are at risk of infection each year. Climate changes and human mobility contribute to increase the number of cases and to spread the disease all around the world. In this work, the influence of human mobility is evaluated by analyzing a sequence of correlations of dengue incidence between cities in southeastern Brazil. The methodology initially identifies the cities were the epidemy begins, considered as focus for that epidemic year. The strength of the linear association between all pairs of cities were calculated identifying the cities which have high correlations with the focus-cities. The correlations are also calculated between all pairs considering a time lag of 1, 2 or 3 weeks ahead for all cities except the focus ones. Centred differences of the notification number are used to detect the outbreaks. The tests were made with DATASUS-SINAN data of the state of Rio de Janeiro, from January 2008 to December 2013. Preliminary results indicate that the spread of dengue from one city to another can be characterized by the development of the sequence of shifted correlations. The proposal may be useful to consider control strategies against disease transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto A. Pinto
- LIAAD—INESC TEC, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - David Zilberman
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California USA
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Wilder-Smith A, Tissera H, AbuBakar S, Kittayapong P, Logan J, Neumayr A, Rocklöv J, Byass P, Louis VR, Tozan Y, Massad E, Preet R. Novel tools for the surveillance and control of dengue: findings by the DengueTools research consortium. Glob Health Action 2018; 11:1549930. [PMID: 30560735 PMCID: PMC6282436 DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2018.1549930] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2018] [Accepted: 11/10/2018] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue fever persists as a major global disease burden, and may increase as a consequence of climate change. Along with other measures, research actions to improve diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models are highly relevant. The European Commission funded the DengueTools consortium to lead a major initiative in these areas, and this review synthesises the outputs and findings of this work conducted from 2011 to 2016. Research areas: DengueTools organised its work into three research areas, namely [1] Early warning and surveillance systems; [2] Strategies to prevent dengue in children; and [3] Predictive models for the global spread of dengue. Research area 1 focused on case-studies undertaken in Sri Lanka, including developing laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, evaluating economic impact, identifying drivers of transmission intensity, evaluating outbreak prediction capacity and developing diagnostic capacity. Research area 2 addressed preventing dengue transmission in school children, with case-studies undertaken in Thailand. Insecticide-treated school uniforms represented an intriguing potential approach, with some encouraging results, but which were overshadowed by a lack of persistence of insecticide on the uniforms with repeated washing. Research area 3 evaluated potential global spread of dengue, particularly into dengue-naïve areas such as Europe. The role of international travel, changing boundaries of vectors, developing models of vectorial capacity under different climate change scenarios and strategies for vector control in outbreaks was all evaluated. CONCLUDING REMARKS DengueTools was able to make significant advances in methods for understanding and controlling dengue transmission in a range of settings. These will have implications for public health agendas to counteract dengue, including vaccination programmes. OUTLOOK Towards the end of the DengueTools project, Zika virus emerged as an unexpected epidemic in the central and southern America. Given the similarities between the dengue and Zika viruses, with vectors in common, some of the DengueTools thinking translated readily into the Zika situation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annelies Wilder-Smith
- Unit of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Hasitha Tissera
- Epidemiological Unit, Ministry of Health, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | - Sazaly AbuBakar
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Arbovirus Reference and Research (Dengue/Severe Dengue), Tropical Infectious Diseases Research and Education Centre (TIDREC) University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Pattamaporn Kittayapong
- Center of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Salaya, Nakhon Pathom, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - James Logan
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Andreas Neumayr
- Department of Medical Services, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Unit of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Peter Byass
- Unit of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Valérie R. Louis
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Yesim Tozan
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg, Germany
- NYU College of Global Public Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Eduardo Massad
- School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Raman Preet
- Unit of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
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Hamid PH, Prastowo J, Ghiffari A, Taubert A, Hermosilla C. Aedes aegypti resistance development to commonly used insecticides in Jakarta, Indonesia. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0189680. [PMID: 29253003 PMCID: PMC5734763 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0189680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2017] [Accepted: 11/30/2017] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of various relevant arthropod-borne viral infectious diseases worldwide. The mosquito control is still mainly performed by using insecticides but their effectiveness is increasingly questioned nowadays. We here conducted a study on Ae. aegypti resistance development towards several commonly used insecticides in the capital city of Jakarta, Indonesia. In order to achieve this goal, Ae. aegypti eggs from Jakarta were collected with ovitraps and hatched in the insectary of the Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia. The F0 generations were used for WHO resistance tests and knockdown resistance (kdr) assays. Presented results clearly showed that there was resistance development of Ae. aegypti populations to the here tested pyrethroid insecticides (i. e. permethrin). Observed mortalities were less than 90% with highest resistance against 0.75% permethrin concentrations. Furthermore, a significant association of V1016G gene mutations with resistance phenotypes to 0.75% permethrin was observed. Nevertheless, the F1534C mutation did not show a significant correlation to resistance development. In conclusion, our results show that populations of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes within the city of Jakarta have developed resistance against several routinely used pyrethroid insecticides in local performed control programs. Thus, the regular verification/assessment of resistance development status will hopefully help in the future to assist local public health authorities in their mosquito control programs by recommending and managing the rotation of different routinely used insecticides with diverse effector mechanisms in order to delay Ae. aegypti resistance development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Penny Humaidah Hamid
- Department of Parasitology, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Karangmalang, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
- * E-mail:
| | - Joko Prastowo
- Department of Parasitology, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Karangmalang, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Ahmad Ghiffari
- Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Muhammadiyah, Palembang, Indonesia
| | - Anja Taubert
- Institute of Parasitology, Biomedical Research Centre Seltersberg, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
| | - Carlos Hermosilla
- Institute of Parasitology, Biomedical Research Centre Seltersberg, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany
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92
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Li C, Wang X, Wu X, Liu J, Ji D, Du J. Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2017; 605-606:867-873. [PMID: 28683431 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2017] [Revised: 06/22/2017] [Accepted: 06/22/2017] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998-2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenlu Li
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Xiaofeng Wang
- Center for Disease Surveillance and Information Services, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Xiaoxu Wu
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
| | - Jianing Liu
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Duoying Ji
- College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Juan Du
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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Wilder-Smith A, Preet R, Renhorn KE, Ximenes RA, Rodrigues LC, Solomon T, Neyts J, Lambrechts L, Willison HJ, Peeling R, Falconar AK, Precioso AR, Logan J, Lang T, Endtz HP, Massad E, Massad E. ZikaPLAN: Zika Preparedness Latin American Network. Glob Health Action 2017; 10:1398485. [PMID: 29235414 PMCID: PMC7011980 DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2017.1398485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands has underlined the need for a coordinated research network across the whole region that can respond rapidly to address the current knowledge gaps in Zika and enhance research preparedness beyond Zika. The European Union under its Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme awarded three research consortia to respond to this need. Here we present the ZikaPLAN (Zika Preparedness Latin American Network) consortium. ZikaPLAN combines the strengths of 25 partners in Latin America, North America, Africa, Asia, and various centers in Europe. We will conduct clinical studies to estimate the risk and further define the full spectrum and risk factors of congenital Zika virus syndrome (including neurodevelopmental milestones in the first 3 years of life), delineate neurological complications associated with ZIKV due to direct neuroinvasion and immune-mediated responses in older children and adults, and strengthen surveillance for birth defects and Guillain-Barré Syndrome. Laboratory-based research to unravel neurotropism and investigate the role of sexual transmission, determinants of severe disease, and viral fitness will underpin the clinical studies. Social messaging and engagement with affected communities, as well as development of wearable repellent technologies against Aedes mosquitoes will enhance the impact. Burden of disease studies, data-driven vector control, and vaccine modeling as well as risk assessments on geographic spread of ZIKV will form the foundation for evidence-informed policies. While addressing the research gaps around ZIKV, we will engage in capacity building in laboratory and clinical research, collaborate with existing and new networks to share knowledge, and work with international organizations to tackle regulatory and other bottlenecks and refine research priorities. In this way, we can leverage the ZIKV response toward building a long-term emerging infectious diseases response capacity in the region to address future challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. Wilder-Smith
- Unit of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå Sweden,CONTACT Annelies Wilder-Smith Unit of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - R. Preet
- Unit of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå Sweden
| | - K. E. Renhorn
- Unit of Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå Sweden
| | - R. A. Ximenes
- Instituto de Apoio a Fundacao, Universidade de Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil
| | - L. C. Rodrigues
- Instituto de Apoio a Fundacao, Universidade de Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil,London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - T. Solomon
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - J. Neyts
- Rega Institute for Medical Research, Department of Microbiology & Immunology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - L. Lambrechts
- Institut Pasteur, Insect-Virus Interactions Group, Department of Genomes and Genetics, CNRS Unité de Recherche Associée 3012, Paris Cedex 15, France
| | - H. J. Willison
- Institute of Infection, Immunity & Inflammation, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - R. Peeling
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - A. K. Falconar
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK,Departmento del Medicina, Fundacion Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia
| | | | - J. Logan
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - T. Lang
- The Global Health Network, Masters and Scholars of the University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - H. P. Endtz
- Fondation Mérieux, Lyon, France,Department of Medical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - E. Massad
- Fundacao de Apoio a Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - E Massad
- m Fundacao de Apoio a Universidade de Sao Paulo , Sao Paulo , Brazil
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94
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Massad E, Amaku M, Coutinho FAB, Struchiner CJ, Lopez LF, Wilder-Smith A, Burattini MN. Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks. Infect Dis Model 2017; 2:441-454. [PMID: 30137722 PMCID: PMC6002028 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.12.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2017] [Revised: 11/06/2017] [Accepted: 12/06/2017] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly. Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes' densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes' density. The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Massad
- School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
- College of Life and Natural Sciences, The University of Derby, UK
- Corresponding author. School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil.
| | - Marcos Amaku
- School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Annelies Wilder-Smith
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Germany
- Department Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, SE-901 85 Umeå, Sweden
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
| | - Marcelo Nascimento Burattini
- School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
- Hospital São Paulo, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
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95
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Abstract
Climate is one of several causes of disease emergence. Although half or more of infectious diseases are affected by climate it appears to be a relatively infrequent cause of human disease emergence. Climate mostly affects diseases caused by pathogens that spend part of their lifecycle outside of the host, exposed to the environment. The most important routes of transmission of climate sensitive diseases are by arthropod (insect and tick) vectors, in water and in food. Given the sensitivity of many diseases to climate, it is very likely that at least some will respond to future climate change. In the case of vector-borne diseases this response will include spread to new areas. Several vector-borne diseases have emerged in Europe in recent years; these include vivax malaria, West Nile fever, dengue fever, Chikungunya fever, leishmaniasis, Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. The vectors of these diseases are mosquitoes, sand flies and ticks. The UK has endemic mosquito species capable of transmitting malaria and probably other pathogens, and ticks that transmit Lyme disease. The UK is also threatened by invasive mosquito species known to be able to transmit West Nile, dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and sand flies that spread leishmaniasis. Warmer temperatures in the future will increase the suitability of the UK's climate for these invasive species, and increase the risk that they may spread disease. While much attention is on invasive species, it is important to recognize the threat presented by native species too. Proposed actions to reduce the future impact of emerging vector-borne diseases in the UK include insect control activity at points of entry of vehicles and certain goods, wider surveillance for mosquitoes and sand flies, research into the threat posed by native species, increased awareness of the medical profession of the threat posed by specific diseases, regular risk assessments, and increased preparedness for the occurrence of a disease emergency.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Baylis
- Liverpool University Climate and Infectious Diseases of Animals group, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
- Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
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96
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Tozan Y, Ratanawong P, Sewe MO, Wilder-Smith A, Kittayapong P. Household costs of hospitalized dengue illness in semi-rural Thailand. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005961. [PMID: 28937986 PMCID: PMC5627959 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2017] [Revised: 10/04/2017] [Accepted: 09/13/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue-related illness is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries, imposing a major economic burden on households, health systems, and governments. This study aims to assess the economic impact of hospitalized dengue cases on households in Chachoengsao province in eastern Thailand. Methods We conducted a prospective cost-of-illness study of hospitalized pediatric and adult dengue patients at three public hospitals. We examined all hospitalized dengue cases regardless of disease severity. Patients or their legal guardians were interviewed using a standard questionnaire to determine household-level medical and non-medical expenditures and income losses during the illness episode. Results Between March and September 2015, we recruited a total of 224 hospitalized patients (<5 years, 4%; 5–14 years, 20%, 15–24 years, 36%, 25–34 years, 15%; 35–44 years, 10%; 45+ years, 12%), who were clinically diagnosed with dengue. The total cost of a hospitalized dengue case was higher for adult patients than pediatric patients, and was US$153.6 and US$166.3 for pediatric DF and DHF patients, respectively, and US$171.2 and US$226.1 for adult DF and DHF patients, respectively. The financial burden on households increased with the severity of dengue illness. Conclusions Although 74% of the households reported that the patient received free medical care, hospitalized dengue illness cost approximately 19–23% of the monthly household income. These results indicated that dengue imposed a substantial financial burden on households in Thailand where a great majority of the population was covered by the Universal Coverage Scheme for health care. Dengue, an arbovirus infection with an explosive epidemic potential, is a major public health problem in Thailand and other developing countries in subtropical and tropical regions. Dengue illness often leads to school and work absenteeism, medical and non-medical expenditures, and foregone income. A growing literature shows that these illness related costs pose a severe economic burden on households, health care systems, and governments. We conducted a prospective cost-of-illness study to assess the costs and impact of hospitalized pediatric and adult dengue cases on households in a highly endemic area in eastern Thailand. We found that the total cost of a hospitalized dengue case accounted for about 19–23% the monthly household income. Although direct medical costs were covered for a majority of hospitalized dengue patients by the Thai Universal Coverage Scheme for health care, direct non-medical and indirect costs were of great economic significance to households. These hidden costs of dengue illness are likely to increase given the shift in the mean age of dengue cases in Thailand and other endemic countries in the region. High household costs of dengue illness justify efforts to improve the coverage of preventive and control measures against dengue in endemic areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yesim Tozan
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg, Germany
- College of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY, United States of America
- Center of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases and Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- * E-mail: (YT); (PT)
| | - Pitcha Ratanawong
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg, Germany
- Center of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases and Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Maquines Odhiambo Sewe
- Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Annelies Wilder-Smith
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg, Germany
- Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Pattamaporn Kittayapong
- Division of Social Science, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- * E-mail: (YT); (PT)
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97
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An integrated approach for the assessment of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus global spatial distribution, and determination of the zones susceptible to the development of Zika virus. Acta Trop 2017; 168:80-90. [PMID: 28111132 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.01.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2016] [Revised: 12/23/2016] [Accepted: 01/16/2017] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
The Zika virus, one of the new epidemic diseases, is reported to have affected millions of people in the past year. The suitable climate conditions of the areas where Zika virus has been reported, especially in areas with a high population density, are the main cause of the current outbreak and spread of the disease. Indeed, the suitable climatic conditions of certain territories constitute perfect breading nest for the propagation and outbreak of worldwide diseases. The main objective of this research is to analyze the global distribution and predicted areas of both mosquitoes Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus which are the main vectors of Zika virus. Physical (SRTM) and climatic variables (WorldClim) were used to obtain the susceptibility maps based on the optimum conditions for the development of these mosquitoes. The susceptibility model was developed using a Species Distribution Model - correlative model, namely the Maximum Entropy, that used as input the spatial references of both vectors (Dryad Digital Repository). The results show the most important classes of each independent variable used in assessing the presence of each species of mosquitoes and the areas susceptible to the presence of these vector species. It turns out that Ae. aegypti has greater global dispersion than the Ae. albopictus specie, although two common regions stand out as the most prone to the presence of both mosquito species (tropical and subtropical zones). The crossing of these areas of greater susceptibility with areas of greater population density (e.g. India, China, Se of USA and Brazil) shows some agreement, and these areas stand out due to the presence of several records of Zika virus (HealthMap Project). In this sense, through the intersection of susceptibility and human exposure the areas with increased risk of development and spread of Zika virus are pinpointed, suggesting that there may be a new outbreak of this virus in these places, if preventive measures are not adopted.
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98
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Viennet E, Mincham G, Frentiu FD, Jansen CC, Montgomery BL, Harley D, Flower RLP, Williams CR, Faddy HM. Epidemic Potential for Local Transmission of Zika Virus in 2015 and 2016 in Queensland, Australia. PLOS CURRENTS 2016; 8. [PMID: 28123859 PMCID: PMC5222544 DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.73d82b08998c6d729c41ef6cdcc80176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Zika virus could be transmitted in the state of Queensland, Australia, in parts of the state where the mosquito vectors are established. METHODS We assessed the epidemic potential of Zika in Queensland from January 2015 to August 2016, and estimate the epidemic potential from September to December 2016, by calculating the temperature-dependent relative vectorial capacity (rVc), based on empirical and estimated parameters. RESULTS Through 2015, we estimated a rVc of 0.119, 0.152, 0.170, and 0.175, respectively in the major cities of Brisbane, Rockhampton, Cairns, and Townsville. From January to August 2016, the epidemic potential trend was similar to 2015, however the highest epidemic potential was in Cairns. During September to November 2016, the epidemic potential is consistently the highest in Cairns, followed by Townsville, Rockhampton and Brisbane. Then, from November to December 2016, Townsville has the highest estimated epidemic potential. DISCUSSION We demonstrate using a vectorial capacity model that ZIKV could have been locally transmitted in Queensland, Australia during 2015 and 2016. ZIKV remains a threat to Australia for the upcoming summer, during the Brazilian Carnival season, when the abundance of vectors is relatively high. Understanding the epidemic potential of local ZIKV transmission will allow better management of threats to blood safety and assessment of public health risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elvina Viennet
- Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gina Mincham
- Centre for Population Health Research, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Francesca D Frentiu
- Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation & School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
| | - Cassie C Jansen
- Metro North Public Health Unit, Metro North Hospital and Health Service, Windsor, Queensland, Australia
| | - Brian L Montgomery
- Metro South Public Health Unit, Metro South Hospital and Health Service, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - David Harley
- Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Robert L P Flower
- Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
| | - Craig R Williams
- Centre for Population Health Research, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Helen M Faddy
- Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
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Ebi KL, Nealon J. Dengue in a changing climate. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2016; 151:115-123. [PMID: 27475051 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.07.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 178] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2016] [Revised: 06/10/2016] [Accepted: 07/18/2016] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is the world's most important arboviral disease in terms of number of people affected. Over the past 50 years, incidence increased 30-fold: there were approximately 390 million infections in 2010. Globalization, trade, travel, demographic trends, and warming temperatures are associated with the recent spread of the primary vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and of dengue. Overall, models project that new geographic areas along the fringe of current geographic ranges for Aedes will become environmentally suitable for the mosquito's lifecycle, and for dengue transmission. Many endemic countries where dengue is likely to spread further have underdeveloped health systems, increasing the substantial challenges of disease prevention and control. Control focuses on management of Aedes, although these efforts have typically had limited effectiveness in preventing outbreaks. New prevention and control efforts are needed to counter the potential consequences of climate change on the geographic range and incidence of dengue, including novel methods of vector control and dengue vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristie L Ebi
- Departments of Global Health and Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, WA 98015, USA.
| | - Joshua Nealon
- Sanofi Pasteur Asia Pacific Epidemiology, 189767, Singapore.
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Infectivity of Immature Neurons to Zika Virus: A Link to Congenital Zika Syndrome. EBioMedicine 2016; 10:65-70. [PMID: 27364784 PMCID: PMC5006602 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.06.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2016] [Revised: 06/18/2016] [Accepted: 06/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Epidemiological data strongly suggest that microcephaly cases in Brazil are associated with the ongoing epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV). In order to further solidify the possible link, we investigated the infectivity of ZIKV using various neuroblastoma (NB) cell lines. METHODS Six undifferentiated, two terminally differentiated and two retinoic acid (RA) -induced, partially differentiated cell lines were exposed to ZIKV strain PRVABC59, which is genetically similar to the French Polynesia strain, with 97-100% genetic homology to the current ZIKV strain found in Brazil. All infections were confirmed by real-time PCR (RT-qPCR), immunofluorescence assay (IFA) probing with anti-flavivirus E antibody, and evaluation of cytopathic effects. FINDINGS ZIKV infected all six undifferentiated NB cell lines. In five out of six NB cell lines, between 90 and 70% cells were positive by IFA whereas for one cell line, CCL-127, ~80% of cells were positive for ZIKV as determined by IFA but showed persistent infection. Two differentiated cell lines, JFEN and T-268, were highly resistant to ZIKV with <1% of the cells being susceptible, as determined by IFA and confirmed by qRT-PCR. Two retinoic acid (RA)-induced NB partially differentiated cell lines showed no difference in permissiveness as compared to their undifferentiated mother cell lines. INTERPRETATION These findings strengthen the reported association between high incidences of microcephaly and ZIKV infection in newborns in Brazil. Our results suggest that the undifferentiated neurons are highly permissive to ZIKV infection, as one would expect during the early stages of neurogenesis in fetal brains; whereas differentiated neurons, representative of adult brain neurons, are relatively resistant to the virus, which explains the rare occurrence of neurological complications in adults infected with ZIKV. Our studies confirm the neurotropism of the ZIKV strain closely related to the current epidemic in Latin America.
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