The Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: Novel Understanding through Mechanistic Eco-evolutionary Models

Effect of Productivity on Community Size Explains the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient of South American Small Mammals

AbstractAlthough many studies have shown that species richness increases from high to low latitudes (the latitudinal diversity gradient), the mechanisms responsible for generating and maintaining higher species richness in the tropics remain intensely debated. Here we investigate how the effects of temperature on speciation rates (kinetic effects) and the effects of productivity on community size (chemical effects) explain the latitudinal diversity gradient of South American small mammals. We implemented Bayesian models that integrate processes from the neutral and metabolic theories, comparing model predictions with empirical richness patterns. The neutral-metabolic model predicted the latitudinal richness gradient in South American small mammals. We found evidence that the effects of productivity on community size are more important for explaining differences in species richness than the effects of temperature on speciation rates. These results suggest that differences in species richness along latitudinal gradients are regulated primarily by the chemical effects of productivity on speciation-extinction dynamics.

Modelling the tempo and mode of lineage dispersal

Lineage dispersal is a basic macroevolutionary process shaping the distribution of biodiversity. Probabilistic approaches in biogeography, epidemiology, and macroecology often model dispersal as a background process to explain extant or infer past distributions. We propose framing questions around the mode, timing, rate, and direction of lineage dispersal itself, from a lineage- or geography-centric perspective. We review available methods for modelling lineage dispersal. Likelihood- and simulation-based approaches to modelling dispersal have made progress in accounting for the variation of lineage dispersal over space, time, and branches of a phylogeny and its interaction with diversification. Methodological improvements, guided by a focus on model adequacy, will lead to more realistic models that can answer fundamental questions about the tempo and mode of lineage dispersal.

Opportunities and challenges of macrogenetic studies

The rapidly emerging field of macrogenetics focuses on analysing publicly accessible genetic datasets from thousands of species to explore large-scale patterns and predictors of intraspecific genetic variation. Facilitated by advances in evolutionary biology, technology, data infrastructure, statistics and open science, macrogenetics addresses core evolutionary hypotheses (such as disentangling environmental and life-history effects on genetic variation) with a global focus. Yet, there are important, often overlooked, limitations to this approach and best practices need to be considered and adopted if macrogenetics is to continue its exciting trajectory and reach its full potential in fields such as biodiversity monitoring and conservation. Here, we review the history of this rapidly growing field, highlight knowledge gaps and future directions, and provide guidelines for further research.

Productivity, niche availability, species richness, and extinction risk: Untangling relationships using individual-based simulations

It has often been suggested that the productivity of an ecosystem affects the number of species that it can support. Despite decades of study, the nature, extent, and underlying mechanisms of this relationship are unclear. One suggested mechanism is the "more individuals" hypothesis (MIH). This proposes that productivity controls the number of individuals in the ecosystem, and that more individuals can be divided into a greater number of species before their population size is sufficiently small for each to be at substantial risk of extinction. Here, we test this hypothesis using REvoSim: an individual-based eco-evolutionary system that simulates the evolution and speciation of populations over geological time, allowing phenomena occurring over timescales that cannot be easily observed in the real world to be evaluated. The individual-based nature of this system allows us to remove assumptions about the nature of speciation and extinction that previous models have had to make. Many of the predictions of the MIH are supported in our simulations: Rare species are more likely to undergo extinction than common species, and species richness scales with productivity. However, we also find support for relationships that contradict the predictions of the strict MIH: species population size scales with productivity, and species extinction risk is better predicted by relative than absolute species population size, apparently due to increased competition when total community abundance is higher. Furthermore, we show that the scaling of species richness with productivity depends upon the ability of species to partition niche space. Consequently, we suggest that the MIH is applicable only to ecosystems in which niche partitioning has not been halted by species saturation. Some hypotheses regarding patterns of biodiversity implicitly or explicitly overlook niche theory in favor of neutral explanations, as has historically been the case with the MIH. Our simulations demonstrate that niche theory exerts a control on the applicability of the MIH and thus needs to be accounted for in macroecology.

gen3sis: A general engine for eco-evolutionary simulations of the processes that shape Earth's biodiversity

Understanding the origins of biodiversity has been an aspiration since the days of early naturalists. The immense complexity of ecological, evolutionary, and spatial processes, however, has made this goal elusive to this day. Computer models serve progress in many scientific fields, but in the fields of macroecology and macroevolution, eco-evolutionary models are comparatively less developed. We present a general, spatially explicit, eco-evolutionary engine with a modular implementation that enables the modeling of multiple macroecological and macroevolutionary processes and feedbacks across representative spatiotemporally dynamic landscapes. Modeled processes can include species' abiotic tolerances, biotic interactions, dispersal, speciation, and evolution of ecological traits. Commonly observed biodiversity patterns, such as α, β, and γ diversity, species ranges, ecological traits, and phylogenies, emerge as simulations proceed. As an illustration, we examine alternative hypotheses expected to have shaped the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) during the Earth's Cenozoic era. Our exploratory simulations simultaneously produce multiple realistic biodiversity patterns, such as the LDG, current species richness, and range size frequencies, as well as phylogenetic metrics. The model engine is open source and available as an R package, enabling future exploration of various landscapes and biological processes, while outputs can be linked with a variety of empirical biodiversity patterns. This work represents a key toward a numeric, interdisciplinary, and mechanistic understanding of the physical and biological processes that shape Earth's biodiversity.

Imprints of tropical niche conservatism and historical dispersal in the radiation of Tyrannidae (Aves: Passeriformes)

Speciation events occurring within biogeographic regions, and historical dispersal between regions influence diversity patterns observed in present-day assemblages. Such assessment has been often performed based on the phylogenetic structure of local assemblages. We underline some issues with that approach, and show that more reliable evaluation of historical events influencing present-day diversity can be achieved by combining phylogenetic diversity to an estimate of species assemblage age based on ancestral range estimation. We apply the new approach to test two concurrent hypotheses—Tropical Niche Conservatism (TNC) and Out of The Tropics (OTT)—which provide alternative explanations to species richness gradients, as possible explanations to higher species richness in tropical assemblages of Tyrannidae birds in relation to temperate ones across the American continent. Tropical assemblages tended to be older and to show higher phylogenetic diversity than temperate ones, suggesting that recent events of historical dispersal carried out by few lineages likely drove species assembly in younger temperate assemblages. This finding provides support to TNC as the most probable explanation to species richness variation in tyrannid assemblages across the Americas. Combining phylogenetic structure measures with a flexible assemblage age metric calculated from ancestral range estimation allows deeper understanding of current diversity gradients.

From theory to practice in pattern-oriented modelling: identifying and using empirical patterns in predictive models

To robustly predict the effects of disturbance and ecosystem changes on species, it is necessary to produce structurally realistic models with high predictive power and flexibility. To ensure that these models reflect the natural conditions necessary for reliable prediction, models must be informed and tested using relevant empirical observations. Pattern-oriented modelling (POM) offers a systematic framework for employing empirical patterns throughout the modelling process and has been coupled with complex systems modelling, such as in agent-based models (ABMs). However, while the production of ABMs has been rising rapidly, the explicit use of POM has not increased. Challenges with identifying patterns and an absence of specific guidelines on how to implement empirical observations may limit the accessibility of POM and lead to the production of models which lack a systematic consideration of reality. This review serves to provide guidance on how to identify and apply patterns following a POM approach in ABMs (POM-ABMs), specifically addressing: where in the ecological hierarchy can we find patterns; what kinds of patterns are useful; how should simulations and observations be compared; and when in the modelling cycle are patterns used? The guidance and examples provided herein are intended to encourage the application of POM and inspire efficient identification and implementation of patterns for both new and experienced modellers alike. Additionally, by generalising patterns found especially useful for POM-ABM development, these guidelines provide practical help for the identification of data gaps and guide the collection of observations useful for the development and verification of predictive models. Improving the accessibility and explicitness of POM could facilitate the production of robust and structurally realistic models in the ecological community, contributing to the advancement of predictive ecology at large.

Phylogenomic and ecological analyses reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of global pines

How coniferous forests evolved in the Northern Hemisphere remains largely unknown. Unlike most groups of organisms that generally follow a latitudinal diversity gradient, most conifer species in the Northern Hemisphere are distributed in mountainous areas at middle latitudes. It is of great interest to know whether the midlatitude region has been an evolutionary cradle or museum for conifers and how evolutionary and ecological factors have driven their spatiotemporal evolution. Here, we investigated the macroevolution of Pinus, the largest conifer genus and characteristic of northern temperate coniferous forests, based on nearly complete species sampling. Using 1,662 genes from transcriptome sequences, we reconstructed a robust species phylogeny and reestimated divergence times of global pines. We found that ∼90% of extant pine species originated in the Miocene in sharp contrast to the ancient origin of Pinus, indicating a Neogene rediversification. Surprisingly, species at middle latitudes are much older than those at other latitudes. This finding, coupled with net diversification rate analysis, indicates that the midlatitude region has provided an evolutionary museum for global pines. Analyses of 31 environmental variables, together with a comparison of evolutionary rates of niche and phenotypic traits with a net diversification rate, found that topography played a primary role in pine diversification, and the aridity index was decisive for the niche rate shift. Moreover, fire has forced diversification and adaptive evolution of Pinus Our study highlights the importance of integrating phylogenomic and ecological approaches to address evolution of biological groups at the global scale.

Evolutionary simulations clarify and reconcile biodiversity-disturbance models

There is significant geographic variation in species richness. However, the nature of the underlying relationships, such as that between species richness and environmental stability, remains unclear. The stability-time hypothesis suggests that environmental instability reduces species richness by suppressing speciation and increasing extinction risk. By contrast, the patch-mosaic hypothesis suggests that small-scale environmental instability can increase species richness by providing a steady supply of non-equilibrium environments. Although these hypotheses are often applied to different time scales, their core mechanisms are in conflict. Reconciling these apparently competing hypotheses is key to understanding how environmental conditions shape the distribution of biodiversity. Here, we use REvoSim, an individual-based, eco-evolutionary system, to model the evolution of sessile organisms in environments with varying magnitudes and scales of environmental instability. We demonstrate that when environments have substantial permanent heterogeneity, a high level of localized environmental instability reduces biodiversity, whereas in environments lacking permanent heterogeneity, high levels of localized instability increase biodiversity. By contrast, broad-scale environmental instability, acting on the same time scale, invariably reduces biodiversity. Our results provide a new view of the biodiversity–disturbance relationship that reconciles contrasting hypotheses within a single model and implies constraints on the environmental conditions under which those hypotheses apply. These constraints can inform attempts to conserve adaptive potential in different environments during the current biodiversity crisis.

Species packing and the latitudinal gradient in beta-diversity

The decline in species richness at higher latitudes is among the most fundamental patterns in ecology. Whether changes in species composition across space (beta-diversity) contribute to this gradient of overall species richness (gamma-diversity) remains hotly debated. Previous studies that failed to resolve the issue suffered from a well-known tendency for small samples in areas with high gamma-diversity to have inflated measures of beta-diversity. Here, we provide a novel analytical test, using beta-diversity metrics that correct the gamma-diversity and sampling biases, to compare beta-diversity and species packing across a latitudinal gradient in tree species richness of 21 large forest plots along a large environmental gradient in East Asia. We demonstrate that after accounting for topography and correcting the gamma-diversity bias, tropical forests still have higher beta-diversity than temperate analogues. This suggests that beta-diversity contributes to the latitudinal species richness gradient as a component of gamma-diversity. Moreover, both niche specialization and niche marginality (a measure of niche spacing along an environmental gradient) also increase towards the equator, after controlling for the effect of topographical heterogeneity. This supports the joint importance of tighter species packing and larger niche space in tropical forests while also demonstrating the importance of local processes in controlling beta-diversity.

Global patterns and a latitudinal gradient of flower disparity: perspectives from the angiosperm order Ericales

Morphological diversity (disparity) is an essential but often neglected aspect of biodiversity. Hence, it seems timely and promising to re-emphasize morphology in modern evolutionary studies. Disparity is a good proxy for the diversity of functions and interactions with the environment of a group of taxa. In addition, geographical and ecological patterns of disparity are crucial to understand organismal evolution and to guide biodiversity conservation efforts. Here, we analyse floral disparity across latitudinal intervals, growth forms, climate types, types of habitats, and regions for a large and representative sample of the angiosperm order Ericales. We find a latitudinal gradient of floral disparity and a decoupling of disparity from species richness. Other factors investigated are intercorrelated, and we find the highest disparity for tropical trees growing in African and South American forests. Explanations for the latitudinal gradient of floral disparity may involve the release of abiotic constraints and the increase of biotic interactions towards tropical latitudes, allowing tropical lineages to explore a broader area of the floral morphospace. Our study confirms the relevance of biodiversity parameters other than species richness and is consistent with the importance of species interactions in the tropics, in particular with respect to angiosperm flowers and their pollinators.

Do latitudinal and bioclimatic gradients drive parasitism in Odonata?

Prevalence of parasites in wild animals may follow ecogeographic patterns, under the influence of climatic factors and macroecological features. One of the largest scale biological patterns on Earth is the latitudinal diversity gradient; however, latitudinal gradients may also exist regarding the frequency of interspecific interactions such as the prevalence of parasitism in host populations. Dragonflies and damselflies (order Odonata) are hosts of a wide range of ecto- and endoparasites, interactions that can be affected by environmental factors that shape their occurrence and distribution, such as climatic variation, ultraviolet radiation and vegetation structure. Here, we retrieved data from the literature on parasites of Odonata, represented by 90 populations infected by ectoparasites (water mites) and 117 populations infected by endoparasites (intestinal gregarines). To test whether there is a latitudinal and bioclimatic gradient in the prevalence of water mites and gregarines parasitizing Odonata, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic comparative models. We found that prevalence of ectoparasites was partially associated with latitude, showing the opposite pattern from our expectations - prevalence was reduced at lower latitudes. Prevalence of endoparasites was not affected by latitude. While prevalence of water mites was also positively associated with vegetation biomass and climatic stability, we found no evidence of the effect of bioclimatic variables on the prevalence of gregarines. Our study suggests that infection by ectoparasites of dragonflies and damselflies is driven by latitudinal and bioclimatic variables. We add evidence of the role of global-scale biological patterns in shaping biodiversity, suggesting that parasitic organisms may prove reliable sources of information about climate change and its impact on ecological interactions.

Diversity begets diversity in mammal species and human cultures

Across the planet the biogeographic distribution of human cultural diversity tends to correlate positively with biodiversity. In this paper we focus on the biogeographic distribution of mammal species and human cultural diversity. We show that not only are these forms of diversity similarly distributed in space, but they both scale superlinearly with environmental production. We develop theory that explains that as environmental productivity increases the ecological kinetics of diversity increases faster than expected because more complex environments are also more interactive. Using biogeographic databases of the global distributions of mammal species and human cultures we test a series of hypotheses derived from this theory and find support for each. For both mammals and cultures, we show that (1) both forms of diversity increase exponentially with ecological kinetics; (2) the kinetics of diversity is faster than the kinetics of productivity; (3) diversity scales superlinearly with environmental productivity; and (4) the kinetics of diversity is faster in increasingly productive environments. This biogeographic convergence is particularly striking because while the dynamics of biological and cultural evolution may be similar in principle the underlying mechanisms and time scales are very different. However, a common currency underlying all forms of diversity is ecological kinetics; the temperature-dependent fluxes of energy and biotic interactions that sustain all forms of life at all levels of organization. Diversity begets diversity in mammal species and human cultures because ecological kinetics drives superlinear scaling with environmental productivity.

Is Variation in Conspecific Negative Density Dependence Driving Tree Diversity Patterns at Large Scales?

Half a century ago, Janzen and Connell hypothesized that the high tree species diversity in tropical forests is maintained by specialized natural enemies. Along with other mechanisms, these can cause conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) and thus maintain species diversity. Numerous studies have measured proxies of CNDD worldwide, but doubt about its relative importance remains. We find ample evidence for CNDD in local populations, but methodological limitations make it difficult to assess if CNDD scales up to control community diversity and thereby local and global biodiversity patterns. A combination of more robust statistical methods, new study designs, and eco-evolutionary models are needed to provide a more definite evaluation of the importance of CNDD for geographic variation in plant species diversity.

Lineage-based functional types: characterising functional diversity to enhance the representation of ecological behaviour in Land Surface Models

Process-based vegetation models attempt to represent the wide range of trait variation in biomes by grouping ecologically similar species into plant functional types (PFTs). This approach has been successful in representing many aspects of plant physiology and biophysics but struggles to capture biogeographic history and ecological dynamics that determine biome boundaries and plant distributions. Grass-dominated ecosystems are broadly distributed across all vegetated continents and harbour large functional diversity, yet most Land Surface Models (LSMs) summarise grasses into two generic PFTs based primarily on differences between temperate C₃ grasses and (sub)tropical C₄ grasses. Incorporation of species-level trait variation is an active area of research to enhance the ecological realism of PFTs, which form the basis for vegetation processes and dynamics in LSMs. Using reported measurements, we developed grass functional trait values (physiological, structural, biochemical, anatomical, phenological, and disturbance-related) of dominant lineages to improve LSM representations. Our method is fundamentally different from previous efforts, as it uses phylogenetic relatedness to create lineage-based functional types (LFTs), situated between species-level trait data and PFT-level abstractions, thus providing a realistic representation of functional diversity and opening the door to the development of new vegetation models.

Toward Unifying Global Hotspots of Wild and Domesticated Biodiversity

Global biodiversity hotspots are areas containing high levels of species richness, endemism and threat. Similarly, regions of agriculturally relevant diversity have been identified where many domesticated plants and animals originated, and co-occurred with their wild ancestors and relatives. The agro-biodiversity in these regions has, likewise, often been considered threatened. Biodiversity and agro-biodiversity hotspots partly overlap, but their geographic intricacies have rarely been investigated together. Here we review the history of these two concepts and explore their geographic relationship by analysing global distribution and human use data for all plants, and for major crops and associated wild relatives. We highlight a geographic continuum between agro-biodiversity hotspots that contain high richness in species that are intensively used and well known by humanity (i.e., major crops and most viewed species on Wikipedia) and biodiversity hotspots encompassing species that are less heavily used and documented (i.e., crop wild relatives and species lacking information on Wikipedia). Our contribution highlights the key considerations needed for further developing a unifying concept of agro-biodiversity hotspots that encompasses multiple facets of diversity (including genetic and phylogenetic) and the linkage with overall biodiversity. This integration will ultimately enhance our understanding of the geography of human-plant interactions and help guide the preservation of nature and its contributions to people.

Spatial covariance of herbivorous and predatory guilds of forest canopy arthropods along a latitudinal gradient

In arthropod community ecology, species richness studies tend to be prioritised over those investigating patterns of abundance. Consequently, the biotic and abiotic drivers of arboreal arthropod abundance are still relatively poorly known. In this cross-continental study, we employ a theoretical framework in order to examine patterns of covariance among herbivorous and predatory arthropod guilds. Leaf-chewing and leaf-mining herbivores, and predatory ants and spiders, were censused on > 1000 trees in nine 0.1 ha forest plots. After controlling for tree size and season, we found no negative pairwise correlations between guild abundances per plot, suggestive of weak signals of both inter-guild competition and top-down regulation of herbivores by predators. Inter-guild interaction strengths did not vary with mean annual temperature, thus opposing the hypothesis that biotic interactions intensify towards the equator. We find evidence for the bottom-up limitation of arthropod abundances via resources and abiotic factors, rather than for competition and predation.

Flat latitudinal diversity gradient caused by the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is recognized as one of the most pervasive, global patterns of present-day biodiversity. However, the controlling mechanisms have proved difficult to identify because many potential drivers covary in space. The geological record presents a unique opportunity for understanding the mechanisms which drive the LDG by providing a direct window to deep-time biogeographic dynamics. Here we used a comprehensive database containing 52,318 occurrences of marine fossils to show that the shape of the LDG changed greatly during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction from showing a significant tropical peak to a flattened LDG. The flat LDG lasted for the entire Early Triassic (∼5 My) before reverting to a modern-like shape in the Middle Triassic. The environmental extremes that prevailed globally, especially the dramatic warming, likely induced selective extinction in low latitudes and accumulation of diversity in high latitudes through origination and poleward migration, which combined together account for the flat LDG of the Early Triassic.

Segregation structure in Odonata assemblages follows the latitudinal gradient

Latitude is known to deeply affect life with effects generalizable into ecological rules; the increasing species diversity toward tropics is the most paradigmatic. Several hypotheses tested patterns of biotic interactions' intensity along latitude. Negative interactions (i.e. competition and predation) are expected to be among the processes that produce checkerboard distribution of species. However, no relationship between checkerboardness and latitude has been uncovered. We tested Odonata assemblages worldwide for segregation patterns using a faunistic dataset (395 species arranged in 386 natural communities) spanning a wide latitudinal range (87°). We used co-occurrence analyses (C-score index and Standardized Effect Size) as an estimate of checkerboardness then correlated the occurrence of segregation to latitude. Odonata followed the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient at the regional scale (i.e. country scale) within our analyzed assemblages spanning, whereas local richness (i.e. community scale) did not follow the same pattern. Odonata assemblages structured with segregation are more common going from high to low latitudes, and local species richness have no effect on the pattern. We summarized hypotheses on how biotic interactions or ecological and historical processes can influence the spatial patterns in the checkerboards of assemblages and presented promising ways to help to gain a better mechanistic understanding of the drivers of the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient.

A Global-Scale Mid-Domain Effect Cannot Explain the Latitudinal Gradient in Species Richness

The latitudinal gradient in species richness is perhaps the most fundamental pattern of biodiversity, yet a satisfactory explanation for its existence remains elusive. A geometric "mid-domain effect" is often cited as having potential to help explain the latitudinal gradient in species richness, but the logic underpinning this hypothesis is apparently built on two incorrect assumptions: (1) that a given great circle-usually the Equator-can constitute the geometric "mid-domain" of the Earth's surface, and (2) that geophysical or bioclimatic boundaries are of geometric relevance in the context of a global-scale mid-domain effect. This article gives a brief overview of the relevant literature and history of thought on the subject, and describes in clear and simple terms why a global-scale mid-domain effect cannot arise, and thus cannot possibly represent a mechanistic basis for the latitudinal gradient in species richness. Explicit acknowledgement of this fact is of great importance, as it allows us to dispense with a commonly cited hypothesis for the latitudinal gradient in species richness.

Global Trends in Marine Plankton Diversity across Kingdoms of Life

The ocean is home to myriad small planktonic organisms that underpin the functioning of marine ecosystems. However, their spatial patterns of diversity and the underlying drivers remain poorly known, precluding projections of their responses to global changes. Here we investigate the latitudinal gradients and global predictors of plankton diversity across archaea, bacteria, eukaryotes, and major virus clades using both molecular and imaging data from Tara Oceans. We show a decline of diversity for most planktonic groups toward the poles, mainly driven by decreasing ocean temperatures. Projections into the future suggest that severe warming of the surface ocean by the end of the 21^st century could lead to tropicalization of the diversity of most planktonic groups in temperate and polar regions. These changes may have multiple consequences for marine ecosystem functioning and services and are expected to be particularly significant in key areas for carbon sequestration, fisheries, and marine conservation.

Video Abstract

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Most epipelagic planktonic groups exhibit a poleward decline of diversity

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No latitudinal diversity gradient was observed below the photic zone

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Temperature emerges as the best predictor of epipelagic plankton diversity

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Global warming may increase plankton diversity, particularly at high latitudes

Evolutionary history and past climate change shape the distribution of genetic diversity in terrestrial mammals

Knowledge of global patterns of biodiversity, ranging from intraspecific genetic diversity (GD) to taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, is essential for identifying and conserving the processes that shape the distribution of life. Yet, global patterns of GD and its drivers remain elusive. Here we assess existing biodiversity theories to explain and predict the global distribution of GD in terrestrial mammal assemblages. We find a strong positive covariation between GD and interspecific diversity, with evolutionary time, reflected in phylogenetic diversity, being the best predictor of GD. Moreover, we reveal the negative effect of past rapid climate change and the positive effect of inter-annual precipitation variability in shaping GD. Our models, explaining almost half of the variation in GD globally, uncover the importance of deep evolutionary history and past climate stability in accumulating and maintaining intraspecific diversity, and constitute a crucial step towards reducing the Wallacean shortfall for an important dimension of biodiversity.

The drivers of genetic diversity (GD) are poorly understood at the global scale. Here the authors show, for terrestrial mammals, that within-species GD covaries with phylogenetic diversity and is higher in locations with more stable past climates. They also interpolate GD for data-poor locations such as the tropics.

Long-term research and hierarchical models reveal consistent fitness costs of being the last egg in a clutch

Maintenance of phenotypic heterogeneity in the face of strong selection is an important component of evolutionary ecology, as are the consequences of such heterogeneity. Organisms may experience diminishing returns of increased reproductive allocation as clutch or litter size increases, affecting current and residual reproductive success. Given existing uncertainty regarding trade‐offs between the quantity and quality of offspring, we sought to examine the potential for diminishing returns on increased reproductive allocation in a long‐lived species of goose, with a particular emphasis on the effect of position in the laying sequence on offspring quality.

To better understand the effects of maternal allocation on offspring survival and growth, we estimated the effects of egg size, timing of breeding, inter‐ and intra‐annual variation, and position in the laying sequence on gosling survival and growth rates of black brant Branta bernicla nigricans breeding in western Alaska from 1987 to 2007.

We found that gosling growth rates and survival decreased with position in the laying sequence, regardless of clutch size. Mean egg volume of the clutch a gosling originated from had a positive effect on gosling survival (β = 0.095, 95% CRI: 0.024, 0.165) and gosling growth rates (β = 0.626, 95% CRI: 0.469, 0.738). Gosling survival (β = −0.146, 95% CRI: −0.214, −0.079) and growth rates (β = −1.286, 95% CRI: −1.435, −1.132) were negatively related to hatching date.

These findings indicate substantial heterogeneity in offspring quality associated with their position in the laying sequence. They also potentially suggest a trade‐off mechanism for females whose total reproductive investment is governed by pre‐breeding state.

Angiosperm speciation cools down in the tropics

Recent evidence has questioned whether the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient (LDG), whereby species richness increases towards the Equator, results in higher rates of speciation in the tropics. Allowing for time heterogeneity in speciation rate estimates for over 60,000 angiosperm species, we found that the LDG does not arise from variation in speciation rates because lineages do not speciate faster in the tropics. These results were consistently retrieved using two other methods to test the association between occupancy of tropical habitats and speciation rates. Our speciation rate estimates were robust to the effects of both undescribed species and missing taxa. Overall, our results show that speciation rates follow an opposite pattern to global variation in species richness. Greater ecological opportunity in the temperate zones, stemming from less saturated communities, higher species turnover or greater environmental change, may ultimately explain these results.

Phytoplankton in the Tara Ocean

Photosynthesis evolved in the ocean more than 2 billion years ago and is now performed by a wide range of evolutionarily distinct organisms, including both prokaryotes and eukaryotes. Our appreciation of their abundance, distributions, and contributions to primary production in the ocean has been increasing since they were first discovered in the seventeenth century and has now been enhanced by data emerging from the Tara Oceans project, which performed a comprehensive worldwide sampling of plankton in the upper layers of the ocean between 2009 and 2013. Largely using recent data from Tara Oceans, here we review the geographic distributions of phytoplankton in the global ocean and their diversity, abundance, and standing stock biomass. We also discuss how omics-based information can be incorporated into studies of photosynthesis in the ocean and show the likely importance of mixotrophs and photosymbionts.

Ecological constraints coupled with deep-time habitat dynamics predict the latitudinal diversity gradient in reef fishes

We develop a spatially explicit model of diversification based on palaeohabitat to explore the predictions of four major hypotheses potentially explaining the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), namely, the 'time-area', 'tropical niche conservatism', 'ecological limits' and 'evolutionary speed' hypotheses. We compare simulation outputs to observed diversity gradients in the global reef fish fauna. Our simulations show that these hypotheses are non-mutually exclusive and that their relative influence depends on the time scale considered. Simulations suggest that reef habitat dynamics produced the LDG during deep geological time, while ecological constraints shaped the modern LDG, with a strong influence of the reduction in the latitudinal extent of tropical reefs during the Neogene. Overall, this study illustrates how mechanistic models in ecology and evolution can provide a temporal and spatial understanding of the role of speciation, extinction and dispersal in generating biodiversity patterns.