Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Social Emotional Learning and the promotion of equal personal relationships among adolescents in Panama: a study protocol

Adolescents in Panama face multiple barriers that affect their health, such as high rates of teenage pregnancy, increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and sexual violence. Equal relationships between women and men are likely to reduce such risks. Here, we suggest that the school-based enhancement of Social and Emotional Learning core competencies—awareness of self and others, positive attitudes and values, responsible decision-making, and social interaction skills—could foster positive changes in behaviors between boys and girls, specifically through a focus on equal roles, equal rights in relationships and nonviolent problem solving. This paper, using the Intervention Mapping Protocol, describes the process of development of, and planning surrounding the implementation and evaluation of the program ‘Me and My new World’, a Social Emotional Learning intervention for middle school students (12–15 years old) in Panama. Program development was based on a needs assessment (Araúz Ledezma et al. (2020) Behavioural and environmental influences on adolescent decision making in personal relationships: a qualitative multi–stakeholder exploration in Panama. Health Education Research, 35, 1–14.) and a literature review of theory- and evidence-based Social and Emotional Learning (SEL)-programs. Intervention outcomes, performance objectives and change objectives of the intervention were identified. The practical applications of different theory-based methods allowed for contextual considerations that could potentially influence the expected behavioral outcomes of the intervention. Teachers were the implementers of the program, and during development, implementation, and evaluation, the roles, opinions, and teaching methods of all stakeholders were recognized. We conclude that Intervention Mapping allows for the analysis of multiple factors influencing the development and implementation of Social Emotional Learning programs promoting equal relationships among adolescents in a developing country, with a special consideration of culture, educational systems, and policies, from a capability development perspective.

Trends and outcomes in primary health care expenditures in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-2017

Introduction

As the world responds to COVID-19 and aims for the Sustainable Development Goals, the potential for primary healthcare (PHC) is substantial, although the trends and effectiveness of PHC expenditure are unknown. We estimate PHC expenditure for each low-income and middle-income country between 2000 and 2017 and test which health outputs and outcomes were associated with PHC expenditure.

Methods

We used three data sources to estimate PHC expenditures: recently published health expenditure estimates for each low-income and middle-income country, which were constructed using 1662 country-reported National Health Accounts; proprietary data from IQVIA to estimate expenditure of prescribed pharmaceuticals for PHC; and household surveys and costing estimates to estimate inpatient vaginal delivery expenditures. We employed regression analyses to measure the association between PHC expenditures and 15 health outcomes and intermediate health outputs.

Results

PHC expenditures in low-income and middle-income countries increased between 2000 and 2017, from $41 per capita (95% uncertainty interval $33–$49) to $90 ($73–$105). Expenditures for low-income countries plateaued since 2014 at $17 per capita ($15–$19). As national income increased, the proportion of health expenditures on PHC generally decrease; however, the fraction of PHC expenditures spent via ambulatory care providers grew. Increases in the fraction of health expenditures on PHC was associated with lower maternal mortality rate (p value≤0.001), improved coverage of antenatal care visits (p value≤0.001), measles vaccination (p value≤0.001) and an increase in the Health Access and Quality index (p value≤0.05). PHC expenditure was not systematically associated with all-age mortality, communicable and non-communicable disease (NCD) burden.

Conclusion

PHC expenditures were associated with maternal and child health but were not associated with reduction in health burden for other key causes of disability, such as NCDs. To combat changing disease burdens, policy-makers and health professionals need to adapt primary healthcare to ensure continued impact on emerging health challenges.

Impact evaluation of immunisation service integration to nutrition programmes and paediatric outpatient departments of primary healthcare centres in Rumbek East and Rumbek Centre counties of South Sudan

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of immunisation service integration to nutrition programmes and under 5-year-old paediatric outpatient departments of primary healthcare centres in Rumbek East and Rumbek Centre counties of South Sudan.

DESIGN

Retrospective intervention study.

SETTING

Three primary healthcare centres in Rumbek East county and three primary healthcare centres in Rumbek Centre county of Lakes state in South Sudan.

PARTICIPANT

We extracted the data for the uptake of pentavalent vaccine (first, second and third dose) given to children aged between 6 weeks and 23 months from immunisation records for January-June 2019 before immunisation service integration and July-December 2019 after immunisation service integration from the District Health Information System 2 website to estimate the immunisation uptake ratios and drop-out rates.

RESULTS

The uptake of the first dose of the pentavalent vaccine improved from 61% to 96% (p<0.001) after immunisation service integration into the nutrition programmes of the primary healthcare centres in Rumbek Centre county. The uptake of the second pentavalent dose improved from 37% to 69% (p<0.001) and for the third pentavalent dose from 36% to 62% (p<0.001), while the drop-out rate reduced from 57% to 40% (p<0.001). While in Rumbek East county, the uptake of the first dose of the pentavalent vaccine improved from 55% to 77% (p<0.001) after immunisation service integration into the under 5-year-old paediatric outpatient departments. The uptake of the second dose improved from 36% to 62% (p<0.001) and for the third dose from 44% to 63% (p<0.001), while the drop-out rate reduced from 40% to 28% (p<0.001). Children were 23% more likely (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.36, p<0.001) to be immunised with the first dose of the pentavalent vaccine on immunisation service integration into the nutrition programmes of primary healthcare centres of Rumbek Centre county in comparison to integration into under 5-year-old outpatient departments of Rumbek East county.

CONCLUSION

Integration of immunisation service delivery to nutrition sites and children's outpatient departments improved the immunisation coverage and decreased drop-out rates in the Rumbek East and Rumbek Centre counties of South Sudan. This evidence of positive impact should encourage the stakeholders of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation to focus on the sustainability and scale-up of this intervention to other counties in South Sudan, as logistically as possible.

Association of Short and Long Interpregnancy Intervals with Adverse Birth Outcomes: Evidence from a Cross-Sectional Study in Northwest China

Purpose

To analyze the effects of a short interpregnancy interval (IPI) (<6 months) and a long IPI (>120 months) on neonatal adverse birth outcomes including low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA), preterm birth (PTB), and birth defects in Shaanxi Province.

Patients and Methods

A stratified multistage random sampling method was used to recruit participants who gave birth between 2010 and 2013 in Shaanxi province. A self-designed questionnaire was used to collect the information of the participants. With the confounding factors controlled, the generalized linear model (GLM) was used to investigate the association between IPI and neonatal birth outcomes. The restricted cubic spline (RCS) function was used to evaluate the dose–response relationship between IPI and birth outcomes.

Results

A total of 13,231 women were included. The prevalence of LBW, SGA, PTB, and birth defects was 3.24%, 12.96%, 2.93%, and 2.12%, respectively. GLM showed that a short IPI (<6 months) was associated with a higher risk of SGA (RR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.04–1.52) and birth defects (RR=2.55, 95% CI: 1.45–4.47), and a long IPI (≥120 months) was associated with a higher risk of LBW (RR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.01–2.34) and PTB (RR=1.73, 95% CI: 1.08–2.76) than an IPI of 18–23 months. The RCS showed that LBW, SGA, and PTB demonstrated a j-shaped relationship with IPI (P for overall association < 0.001 for these three birth outcomes), and birth defects (P for overall association <0.001) had an inversely non-linear relationship with IPI.

Conclusion

Both short and long IPIs are associated with an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes.

Sustainability and Well-being in Geriatrics: proposing a performance-based approach for the implementation of geriatric care activities

The evaluation and measurement of Sustainable Development and Well-being represent a widespread emerging theme in healthcare, especially concerning, among others, the concepts of social equity and universality of health from an intergenerational perspective. To achieve such goals, Geriatrics would play a prominent role, especially considering the growing portion of the senior population in developed countries. This work intends to explore the possibility to connect Sustainable Development Goals and dimensions of Well-being to a set of performance indicators which are representative of geriatric activities in different settings of care. To this purpose, a pattern of indicators from Emilia- Romagna Region (RER) in Italy is considered. Furthermore, a range of Transitional Care interventions is discussed and proposed in order to ameliorate (or keep stable) the performance.

Toward a complete estimate of physical and psychosocial morbidity from prolonged obstructed labour: a modelling study based on clinician survey

Introduction

Prolonged obstructed labour often results from lack of access to timely obstetrical care and affects millions of women. Current burden of disease estimates do not include all the physical and psychosocial sequelae from prolonged obstructed labour. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of the full spectrum of maternal and newborn comorbidities, and create a more comprehensive burden of disease model.

Methods

This is a cross-sectional survey of clinicians and epidemiological modelling of the burden of disease. A survey to estimate prevalence of prolonged obstructed labour comorbidities was developed for prevalence estimates of 27 comorbidities across seven categories associated with prolonged obstructed labour. The survey was electronically distributed to clinicians caring for women who have suffered from prolonged obstructed labour in Asia and Africa. Prevalence estimates of the sequelae were used to calculate years lost to disability for reproductive age women (15 to 49 years) in 54 low- and middle-income countries that report any prevalence of obstetric fistula.

Results

Prevalence estimates were obtained from 132 participants. The median prevalence of reported sequelae within each category were: fistula (6.67% to 23.98%), pelvic floor (6.53% to 8.60%), genitourinary (5.74% to 9.57%), musculoskeletal (6.04% to 11.28%), infectious/inflammatory (5.33% to 9.62%), psychological (7.25% to 24.10%), neonatal (13.63% to 66.41%) and social (38.54% to 59.88%). The expanded methodology calculated a burden of morbidity associated with prolonged obstructed labour among women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years old) in 2017 that is 38% more than the previous estimates.

Conclusions

This analysis provides estimates on the prevalence of physical and psychosocial consequences of prolonged obstructed labour. Our study suggests that the burden of disease resulting from prolonged obstructed labour is currently underestimated. Notably, women who suffer from prolonged obstructed labour have a high prevalence of psychosocial sequelae but these are often not included in burden of disease estimates. In addition to preventative and public health measures, high quality surgical and anaesthesia care are urgently needed to prevent prolonged obstructed labour and its sequelae.

Advances and challenges on the path toward the SDGs: subnational inequalities in Mexico, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) have generated momentum for global health, aligning efforts from governments and international organisations toward a set of goals that are expected to reflect improvements in life conditions across the globe. Mexico has huge social inequalities that can affect access to quality care and health outcomes. The objective of this study is to analyse inequalities among Mexico's 32 states on the health-related SDG indicators (HRSDGIs) from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

These analyses rely on the estimation of HRSDGIs as part of the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. We estimated the concentration index for 40+3 HRSDGI stratified by Socio-demographic Index and marginalisation index, and then for indicators where inequalities were identified, we ran decomposition analyses using structural variables such as gross domestic product per capita, poverty and health expenditure.

FINDINGS

Mexico has made progress on most HRSDGIs, but current trends in improvement do not appear to fast enough to meet 2030 targets. Out of 43 HRSDGIs, we identified evidence of inequality between Mexico's states for 30 indicators; of those, 23 HRSDGIs were unequal distributed affecting states with lower development and seven affecting states with higher development. The decomposition analysis indicates that social determinants of health are major drivers of HRSDGI inequalities in Mexico.

INTERPRETATION

Modifying current trends for HRSDGIs will require subnational-level and national-level policy action, of which should be informed by the latest available data and monitoring on the health-related SDGs. The SDGs' overarching objective of leaving no-one behind should be prioritised not only for individuals but also for communities and other subnational levels.

District-level health system strengthening for universal health coverage: evidence from a longitudinal cohort study in rural Madagascar, 2014-2018

Introduction

Despite renewed commitment to universal health coverage and health system strengthening (HSS) to improve access to primary care, there is insufficient evidence to guide their design and implementation. To address this, we conducted an impact evaluation of an ongoing HSS initiative in rural Madagascar, combining data from a longitudinal cohort and primary health centres.

Methods

We carried out a district representative household survey at the start of the HSS intervention in 2014 in over 1500 households in Ifanadiana district, and conducted follow-up surveys at 2 and 4 years. At each time point, we estimated maternal, newborn and child health coverage; economic and geographical inequalities in coverage; and child mortality rates; both in the HSS intervention and control catchments. We used logistic regression models to evaluate changes associated with exposure to the HSS intervention. We also estimated changes in health centre per capita utilisation during 2013 to 2018.

Results

Child mortality rates decreased faster in the HSS than in the control catchment. We observed significant improvements in care seeking for children under 5 years of age (OR 1.23; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.44) and individuals of all ages (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.58), but no significant differences in maternal care coverage. Economic inequalities in most coverage indicators were reduced, while geographical inequalities worsened in nearly half of the indicators.

Conclusion

The results demonstrate improvements in care seeking and economic inequalities linked to the early stages of a HSS intervention in rural Madagascar. Additional improvements in this context of persistent geographical inequalities will require a stronger focus on community health.

Solving the problem of access to cardiovascular medicines: revolving fund pharmacy models in rural western Kenya

Availability of medicines for treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is low in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). Supply chain models to improve the availability of quality CVD medicines in LMIC communities are urgently required. Our team established contextualised revolving fund pharmacies (RFPs) in rural western Kenya, whereby an initial stock of essential medicines was obtained through donations or purchase and then sold at a small mark-up price sufficient to replenish drug stock and ensure sustainability. In response to different contexts and levels of the public health system in Kenya (eg, primary versus tertiary), we developed and implemented three contextualised models of RFPs over the past decade, creating a network of 72 RFPs across western Kenya, that supplied 22 categories of CVD medicines and increased availability of essential CVD medications from <30% to 90% or higher. In one representative year, we were able to successfully supply 5 793 981 units of CVD and diabetes medicines to patients in western Kenya. The estimated programme running cost was US$6.5–25 per patient, serving as a useful benchmark for public governments to invest in medication supply chain systems in LMICs going forward. One important lesson that we have learnt from implementing three different RFP models over the past 10 years has been that each model has its own advantages and disadvantages, and we must continue to stay nimble and modify as needed to determine the optimal supply chain model while ensuring consistent access to essential CVD medications for patients living in these settings.

Combating hepatitis B and C by 2030: achievements, gaps, and options for actions in China

China has the highest number of hepatitis B and C cases globally. Despite remarkable achievements, China faces daunting challenges in achieving international targets for hepatitis elimination. As part of a large-scale project assessing China’s progress in achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals using quantitative, qualitative data and mathematical modelling, this paper summarises the achievements, gaps and challenges, and proposes options for actions for hepatitis B and C control. China has made substantial progress in controlling chronic viral hepatitis. The four most successful strategies have been: (1) hepatitis B virus childhood immunisation; (2) prevention of mother-to-child transmission; (3) full coverage of nucleic acid amplification testing in blood stations and (4) effective financing strategies to support treatment. However, the total number of deaths due to hepatitis B and C is estimated to increase from 434 724 in 2017 to 527 829 in 2030 if there is no implementation of tailored interventions. Many health system barriers, including a fragmented governance system, insufficient funding, inadequate service coverage, unstandardised treatment and flawed information systems, have compromised the effective control of hepatitis B and C in China. We suggest five strategic priority actions to help eliminate hepatitis B and C in China: (1) restructure the viral hepatitis control governance system; (2) optimise health resource allocation and improve funding efficiency; (3) improve access to and the quality of the health benefits package, especially for high-risk groups; (4) strengthen information systems to obtain high-quality hepatitis epidemiological data; (5) increase investment in viral hepatitis research and development.

Global and regional levels and trends of child and adolescent morbidity from 2000 to 2016: an analysis of years lost due to disability (YLDs)

INTRODUCTION

Non-fatal health loss makes a substantial contribution to the total disease burden among children and adolescents. An analysis of these morbidity patterns is essential to plan interventions that improve the health and well-being of children and adolescents. Our objective was to describe current levels and trends in the non-fatal disease burden from 2000 to 2016 among children and adolescents aged 0-19 years.

METHODS

We used years lost due to disability (YLD) estimates in WHO's Global Health Estimates to describe the non-fatal disease burden from 2000 to 2016 for the age groups 0-27 days, 28 days-11 months, 1-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years and 15-19 years globally and by modified WHO region. To describe causes of YLDs, we used 18 broad cause groups and 54 specific cause categories.

RESULTS

In 2016, the total number of YLDs globally among those aged 0-19 years was about 130 million, or 51 per 1000 population, ranging from 30 among neonates aged 0-27 days to 67 among older adolescents aged 15-19 years. Global progress since 2000 in reducing the non-fatal disease burden has been limited (53 per 1000 in 2000 for children and adolescents aged 0-19 years). The most important causes of YLDs included iron-deficiency anaemia and skin diseases for both sexes, across age groups and regions. For young children under 5 years of age, congenital anomalies, protein-energy malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases were important causes of YLDs, while childhood behavioural disorders, asthma, anxiety disorders and depressive disorders were important causes for older children and adolescents. We found important variations between sexes and between regions, particularly among adolescents, that need to be addressed context-specifically.

CONCLUSION

The disappointingly slow progress in reducing the global non-fatal disease burden among children and adolescents contrasts starkly with the major reductions in mortality over the first 17 years of this century. More effective action is needed to reduce the non-fatal disease burden among children and adolescents, with interventions tailored for each age group, sex and world region.

Data describing the relationship between world news and sustainable development goals

The data article presents a dataset and a tool for news-based monitoring of sustainable development goals defined by the United Nations. The presented dataset was created by structured queries of the GDELT database based on the categories of the World Bank taxonomy matched to sustainable development goals. The Google BigQuery SQL scripts and the results of the related network analysis are attached to the data to provide a toolset for the strategic management of sustainability issues. The article demonstrates the dataset on the 6th sustainable development goal (Clean Water and Sanitation). The network formed based on how countries appear in the same news can be used to explore the potential international cooperation. The network formed based on how topics of World Bank taxonomy appear in the same news can be used to explore how the problems and solutions of sustainability issues are interlinked.

Outcomes of excessive alcohol drinkers without baseline evidence of chronic liver disease after 15 years follow-up: Heavy burden of cancer and liver disease mortality

Background

Most long-term heavy drinkers do not have clinically evident chronic liver disease (CLD). However, at any time-point, their risk of developing CLD remains unknown. We aimed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of a group of heavy drinkers, without evidence of CLD at baseline.

Methods

A cohort of 123 long-term heavy drinkers without CLD were prospectively recruited in 2002 and retrospectively followed until 2018.

Results

At baseline (2002), median alcohol consumption was 271±203g/day during 21.5±20 years, 65% being abstinent during the previous 1.75±5 months. Patients were followed for 14±3 years. During follow-up, 53% reported any alcohol intake. Alcohol consumption during follow-up associated weakly with either 1- or 6-months previous abstinence at baseline. Until 2018, progression to CLD occurred in 6%, associating with years of alcohol intake during follow-up (OR 1.15 [1.01–1.31]) and baseline alkaline-phosphatase (OR 1.05 [1.01–1.10]). During follow-up, being abstinent for at least 1 year positively associated with CLD-free survival. 27% died (55% of cancer–mostly oropharyngeal cancer, 27% of cardiovascular disease, and 9% of liver disease), with a mean age of 71 years [69–74] (10 years less than the expected in the Portuguese population). Achieving abstinence for at least 1 year positively associated with overall survival, while smoking, and hepatic steatosis at baseline associated negatively.

Conclusion

Long-term heavy drinkers seemed to have a decreased life expectancy compared with the overall Portuguese population. Cancer was the main cause of death. Our results suggest that progression to CLD depends mostly on continued alcohol intake. Alcohol abstinence, even if temporary, seems to decrease the risks of CLD and mortality.

The nature of food promotions over one year in circulars from leading Belgian supermarket chains

Background

To examine the proportion of healthier and less healthy food promotions in circulars of major Belgian supermarket chains.

Methods

Food promotions were collected from all circulars over 1 year from the five largest Belgian supermarket chains. Foods promoted were classified according to the World Health Organization Europe nutrient profile model categories and the level and purpose of processing as per the NOVA classification. In addition, promotional characters (i.e. cartoons, licensed characters, celebrities) and premium offers within the promotions were analysed.

Results

In total, 15,271 food promotions were analyzed. The most frequently promoted foods in circulars were processed meat, poultry and fish (11.8%); fresh and frozen fruit, vegetables and legumes (9.5%); soft drinks and sweetened beverages (9.0%); fresh and frozen meat, poultry, fish and eggs (8.6%); cakes, sweet biscuits and pastries (8.1%); ready-made and convenience foods (8.0%); chocolate and sugar confectionery; energy bars and sweet toppings (7.7%) and cheeses (5.7%). About 52.2% of food promotions across all circulars were for ultra-processed foods, with considerable variation across chains (42.9–61.6%).

Promotional characters and premium offers were found within 5.3 and 19.5% of promotions respectively. For all chains, circular covers were healthier compared to entire circulars, with a lower proportion of ultra-processed foods and a higher proportion of fresh fruit and vegetables promoted.

Conclusions

Food promotions in circulars were most frequently for ultra-processed foods, with considerable variation across chains. Circular covers were healthier than entire circulars. Policies to reduce less healthy food promotions could contribute to improving the healthiness of supermarket food purchases.

Mortality attributable to fine particulate matter in Asia, 2000-2015: a cross-sectional cause-of-death analysis

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the effect that particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 μg (PM2.5) had on mortality in Asian populations in years 2000-2015.

SETTING

Mortality and level of PM2.5 data from the United Nations, Global Burden of Disease and University of Chicago were used.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Age pattern of mortality and the number of life-years lost (LYL) attributable to PM2.5 in years 2000-2015. LYL were further separated into causes of death to quantify the contribution of each cause.

RESULTS

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality increased to represent over 31% of the LYL attributable to PM2.5 between 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 in Asia (females 31% and males 35%). However, great diversity in LYL attributable to PM2.5 by causes-of-death were found across the region, with IHD proportions of LYL ranging from 25% to 63% for males from Eastern and Central Asia, respectively. Similar diversity was observed for mortality attributable to PM2.5 for other causes of death across Asia: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (LYL ranging from 6% to 28%), lung cancer (4% to 20%) and stroke (11% to 22%).

CONCLUSION

PM2.5 is a crucial component in the rising health effects in Asia. The diverse trends in cause-specific mortality attributable to PM2.5 creates a further challenge for health systems in the region. These findings highlight that immediate interventions are needed to mitigate the increasing levels of air pollution and with that reduce its detrimental effect on the health and mortality of Asian populations.

The Impact of Temperature on the Risk of COVID-19: A Multinational Study

The current understanding of ambient temperature and its link to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unclear. The objective of this study was to explore the environmental and climatic risk factors for SARS-CoV-2. For this study, we analyzed the data at the beginning of the outbreak (from 20 January to 31 March 2020) to avoid the influence of preventive or control measures. We obtained the number of cases and deaths due to SARS-CoV-2, international tourism, population age, universal health coverage, regional factors, the SARS-CoV-2 testing rate, and population density of a country. A total of 154 countries were included in this study. There were high incidence rates and mortality risks in the countries that had an average ambient temperature between 0 and 10 °C. The adjusted incidence rate for temperatures between 0 and 10 °C was 2.91 (95% CI 2.87–2.95). We randomly divided the data into a training set (80% of data) for model derivation and a test set (20% of data) for validation. Using a random forest statistical model, the model had high accuracy for predicting the high epidemic status of a country (ROC = 95.5%, 95% CI 87.9–100.0%) in the test set. Population age, temperature, and international tourism were the most important factors affecting the risk of SARS-CoV-2 in a country. An understanding the determinants of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak can help to design better strategies for disease control. This study highlights the need to consider thermal effect in the prevention of emerging infectious diseases.

Increased Private Healthcare for Canada: Is That the Right Solution?

Medicare is a publicly funded healthcare system that is a source of national pride in Canada; however, Canadians are increasingly concerned about its performance and sustainability. One proposed solution is private financing (including both private for-profit insurance and private out-of-pocket financing) that would fundamentally change medicare. We investigate international experiences to determine if associations exist between the degree of private spending and two of the core values of medicare – universality and accessibility – as well as the values of equity and quality. We further investigate the impact of private spending on overall health system performance, health outcomes and health expenditure growth rates. Private financing (both private for-profit insurance and private out-of-pocket financing) was found to negatively affect universality, equity, accessibility and quality of care. Increased private financing was not associated with improved health outcomes, nor did it reduce health expenditure growth. Therefore, increased private financing is not the panacea proposed for improving quality or sustainability. The debate over the future of medicare should not be rooted in the source of its funding but rather in the values Canadians deem essential for their healthcare system.

Trends in burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in countries, regions, and worldwide from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease study

Background

Antituberculosis-drug resistance is an important public health issue, and its epidemiological patterns has dramatically changed in recent decades. This study aimed to estimate the trends of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), which can be used to inform health strategies.

Methods

Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the trends of MDR-TB burden at global, regional, and national level from 1990 to 2017 using the linear regression model.

Results

Globally, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of MDR-TB burden including incidence, prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) had pronounced increasing trends from 1990 to 1999, with the EAPCs were 17.63 [95% confidence interval (CI): 10.77–24.92], 17.57 (95% CI 11.51–23.95), 21.21 (95% CI 15.96–26.69), and 21.90 (95% CI 16.55–27.50), respectively. Particularly, the largest increasing trends were seen in areas and countries with low and low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI). However, the trends in incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs of MDR-TB decreased globally from 2000 to 2017, with the respective EAPCs were − 1.37 (95% CI − 1.62 to − 1.12), − 1.32 (95% CI − 1.38 to − 1.26), − 3.30 (95% CI − 3.56 to − 3.04) and − 3.32 (95% CI − 3.59 to − 3.06). Decreasing trends of MDR-TB were observed in most regions and countries, particularly that of death and DALYs in Slovenia were − 18.96 (95% CI − 20.82 to − 17.06) and -19.35 (95% CI − 21.10 to − 17.55), respectively. Whereas the pronounced increasing trends of MDR-TB occurred in Papua New Guinea, Singapore, and Australia.

Conclusions

The ASR of MDR-TB showed pronounced decreasing trends from 2000 to 2017. However, the MDR-TB burden remains a substantial challenge to the TB control globally, and requires effective control strategies and healthcare systems.

Global, regional and national epidemiology and prevalence of child stunting, wasting and underweight in low- and middle-income countries, 2006-2018

In 2016, undernutrition, as manifested in childhood stunting, wasting, and underweight were estimated to cause over 1.0 million deaths, 3.9% of years of life lost, and 3.8% of disability-adjusted life years globally. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using the 2006-2018 cross-sectional nationally representative demographic and health surveys (DHS) data and to explore the sources of regional variations. Anthropometric measurements of children 0-59 months of age from DHS in 62 LMICs worldwide were used. Complete information was available for height-for-age (n = 624,734), weight-for-height (n = 625,230) and weight-for-age (n = 626,130). Random-effects models were fit to estimate the pooled prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight. Sources of heterogeneity in the prevalence estimates were explored through subgroup meta-analyses and meta-regression using generalized linear mixed-effects models. Human development index (a country-specific composite index based on life expectancy, literacy, access to education and per capita gross domestic product) and the United Nations region were explored as potential sources of variation in undernutrition. The overall prevalence was 29.1% (95% CI 26.7%, 31.6%) for stunting, 6.3% (95% CI 4.6%, 8.2%) for wasting, and 13.7% (95% CI 10.9%, 16.9%) for underweight. Subgroup analyses suggested that Western Africa, Southern Asia, and Southeastern Asia had a substantially higher estimated prevalence of undernutrition than global average estimates. In multivariable meta-regression, a combination of human development index and United Nations region (a proxy for geographical variation) explained 54%, 56%, and 66% of the variation in stunting, wasting, and underweight prevalence, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that regional, subregional, and country disparities in undernutrition remain, and the residual gaps to close towards achieving the second sustainable development goal-ending undernutrition by 2030.

Tackling the cancer burden: the economic impact of primary prevention policies

Cancer is a noncommunicable disease (NCD) with increasing incidence and therefore constitutes a major public health issue. To reduce the health and economic burden of cancer, policy-makers across the world have implemented a range of preventative interventions targeting risk factors with a known link to the disease. In this article, we examine the impact of six primary prevention interventions - related to physical inactivity, unhealthy diet or harmful alcohol use - on cancer-related health outcomes and healthcare expenditure. Here, we used the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for NCDs (SPHeP-NCDs) model to quantify outcomes and costs for each intervention for years 2020-2050 across 37 countries. Results from the model indicate that all interventions could lead to a reduction in the number of new cancer cases, in particular those targeting harmful alcohol consumption. Introducing an alcohol tax, for instance, is estimated to reduce related cancer cases by 5619 a year or 174 193 by 2050. A breakdown of results by type of cancer revealed interventions had the largest impact on colorectal cancer with, on average, 41 140 cases avoided per intervention by 2050. In proportional terms, interventions had the greatest impact on new oesophageal and liver cancers. Findings from this article are designed to assist decision-makers efficiently allocate limited resources to meet public health objectives.

The intertwining of world news with Sustainable Development Goals: An effective monitoring tool

This study aims to bring about a novel approach to the analysis of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) based solely on the appearance of news. Our purpose is to provide a monitoring tool that enables world news to be detected in an SDG-oriented manner, by considering multilingual as well as wide geographic coverage. The association of the goals with news basis the World Bank Group Topical Taxonomy, from which the selection of search words approximates the 17 development goals. News is extracted from The GDELT Project (Global Database of Events, Language and Tone) which gathers both printed as well as online news from around the world. 60 851 572 relevant news stories were identified in 2019. The intertwining of world news with SDGs as well as connections between countries are interpreted and highlight that even in the most SDG-sensitive countries, only 2.5% of the news can be attributed to the goals. Most of the news about sustainability appears in Africa as well as East and Southeast Asia, moreover typically the most negative tone of news can be observed in Africa. In the case of climate change (SDG 13), the United States plays a key role in both the share of news and the negative tone. Using the tools of network science, it can be verified that SDGs can be characterized on the basis of world news. This news-centred network analysis of SDGs identifies global partnerships as well as national stages of implementation towards a sustainable socio-environmental ecosystem. In the field of sustainability, it is vital to form the attitudes and environmental awareness of people, which strategic plans cannot address but can be measured well through the news.

Universal interventions for suicide prevention in high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

To examine the effectiveness of universal suicide prevention interventions on reducing suicide mortality in high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries.

METHODS

We implemented a comprehensive search strategy across three electronic databases: MEDLINE (Ovid), PsycINFO (Ovid) and Embase (Ovid). All studies using time-series, retrospective, prospective, pre-post or cross-sectional study designs were included. Studies were required to examine suicide mortality as the outcome of interest. To help organise the results, studies were grouped into six broad categories of universal interventions consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Comprehensive Mental Health Action Plan. A narrative synthesis of results was used to describe the findings.

RESULTS

Of the 15 641 studies identified through the search strategy, 100 studies were eligible in the following categories: law and regulation reforms (n=66), physical barriers (n=13), community-based interventions (n=9), communication strategies (n=4), mental health policies and strategies (n=7), and access to healthcare (n=1). Overall, 100% (13/13) of the included physical barrier interventions resulted in a significant reduction in suicide mortality. Although only 70% (46/66) of the law and regulation reform interventions had a significant impact on reducing suicide, they hold promise due to their extended reach. Universal suicide prevention interventions seem to be more effective at reducing suicide among males than females, identifying a need to stratify results by sex in future studies.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that universal suicide prevention interventions hold promise in effectively reducing suicide mortality in high-income OECD countries.

Randomized trials of housing interventions to prevent malaria and Aedes-transmitted diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant public health problem in tropical regions. Housing improvements such as screening of doors and windows may be effective in reducing disease transmission, but the impact remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether housing interventions were effective in reducing mosquito densities in homes and the impact on the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched 16 online databases, including NIH PubMed, CINAHL Complete, LILACS, Ovid MEDLINE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomized trials published from database inception to June 30, 2020. The primary outcome was the incidence of any mosquito-borne diseases. Secondary outcomes encompassed entomological indicators of the disease transmission. I2 values were used to explore heterogeneity between studies. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to assess the primary and secondary outcomes, with sub-group analyses for type of interventions on home environment, study settings (rural, urban, or mixed), and overall house type (traditional or modern housing).

RESULTS

The literature search yielded 4,869 articles. After screening, 18 studies were included in the qualitative review, of which nine were included in the meta-analysis. The studies enrolled 7,200 households in Africa and South America, reporting on malaria or dengue only. The type of home environmental interventions included modification to ceilings and ribbons to close eaves, screening doors and windows with nets, insecticide-treated wall linings in homes, nettings over gables and eaves openings, mosquito trapping systems, metal-roofed houses with mosquito screening, gable windows and closed eaves, and prototype houses using southeast Asian designs. Pooled analysis depicted a lower risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the housing intervention group (OR = 0.68; 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.95; P = 0.03). Subgroup analysis depicted housing intervention reduced the risk of malaria in all settings (OR = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.39 to 1.01; P = 0.05). In urban environment, housing intervention was found to decrease the risk of both malaria and dengue infections (OR = 0.52; 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.99; P = 0.05).Meta-analysis of pooled odds ratio showed a significant benefit of improved housing in reducing indoor vector densities of both Aedes and Anopheles (OR = 0.35; 95% CI = 0.23 to 0.54; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Housing intervention could reduce transmission of malaria and dengue among people living in the homes. Future research should evaluate the protective effect of specific house features and housing improvements associated with urban development.

The development of nations conditions the disease space

Using the economic complexity methodology on data for disease prevalence in 195 countries during the period of 1990-2016, we propose two new metrics for quantifying the disease space of countries. With these metrics, we analyze the geography of diseases and empirically investigate the effect of economic development on the health complexity of countries. We show that a higher income per capita increases the complexity of countries' diseases. We also show that complex diseases tend to be non-ubiquitous diseases that are prevalent in disease-diversified (complex) countries, while non-complex diseases tend to be non-ubiquitous diseases that are prevalent in non-diversified (non-complex) countries. Furthermore, we build a disease-level index that links a disease to the average level of GDP per capita of the countries in which the disease is prevalent. With this index, we highlight the link between economic development and the complexity of diseases and illustrate how increases in income per capita are associated with more complex diseases.

Bibliometrics Analysis of the Research Status and Trends of the Association Between Depression and Insulin From 2010 to 2020

Depression is one of the common mental illnesses. Because it is an important complication of diabetes, its association with changes in insulin levels and insulin resistance, the causative factors of diabetes, has attracted widespread attention. However, the association between insulin and depression has not been systematically studied through bibliometric and visual analysis. This study is based on 3131 publications of Web of Science to identify the current research status and research trends in this field. The results show that since 2010, the number of publications has been growing rapidly. Cooperative network analysis shows that the United States, the University of Toronto and Roger S Mcintyre are the most influential countries, research institutes and scholars, respectively. Insulin resistance, obesity, and metabolic syndrome are hot topics in this field. Analysis of keywords and references reveals that "sex hormones," is new research area that constantly emerging. As far as we know, this study is the first one to visualize the association between depression and insulin and predict potential future research trends through bibliometric and visual analysis.

Time Trends and Predictions of Suicide Mortality for People Aged 70 Years and Over From 1990 to 2030 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: High suicide rate in the elderly is an important global public health problem but has not received the attention it deserves. This study aimed to examine time trends of suicide mortality for people aged 70 years and over by sex, age, and location from 1990 to 2017, and to provide predictions up to 2030. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017, we presented elderly suicide mortality changes and compared the patterns for the elderly with that for all ages. We estimated associations between socio-demographic index (SDI) and suicide mortality rates using a restricted cubic spline smoother, and predicted suicide mortality rates up to 2030. Results: In 2017, 118,813 people aged 70 years and over died from suicide, indicating a mortality rate of 27.5 per 100,000, with the highest rates in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and for countries and territories, the highest were in South Korea, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique, and Senegal. Between 1990 and 2017, suicide mortality rate for the elderly aged 70 years and over decreased globally (percentage change -29.1%), and the largest decreases occurred in East Asia, Southern Latin America, and Western Europe. Nationally, the largest decrease was found in Chile, followed by Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, and Philippines. For most countries, the elderly mortality rate was higher than the age-standardized rate, with the largest percentage differences in China and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The elderly suicide mortality rate decreased as SDI increased, except for a slight rebound at mid to high SDI. According to projections, 10 out of 195 countries were expected to meet the SDGs indicator of a third reduction by 2030. Conclusions: Variability in suicide mortality rates for the elderly aged 70 years and over by sex, age, region, country, and SDI can guide preventive policies, but causes of the variability need further study. Comprehensive strategies should be adopted to reduce suicide rates and close the gap to the 2030 SDGs.

The Current Situation and Future Trend of Leukemia Mortality by Sex and Area in China

Leukemia is one of the most common cancers. We conducted this study to comprehensively analyze the temporal trends of leukemia mortality during 2003–2017 and project the trends until 2030. We extracted national-level data on annual leukemia mortality from China Health Statistics Yearbooks (2003–2017). We applied the Joinpoint regression model to assess leukemia mortality trends in urban and rural China by sex during 2003–2017. We also produced sex-specific leukemia mortality using the adjusted Global Burden Disease (GBD) 2016 projection model. In urban areas, age-standardized leukemia mortality decreased significantly among females during 2003–2017 (APC = −0.9%; 95% CI: −1.7, −0.1%). In rural areas, significant decreases of age-standardized leukemia mortality were both found among males (APC = −1.7%; 95% CI: −2.9, −0.5%) and females (APC = −1.6%; 95% CI: −2.6, −0.7%) from 2008 to 2017. Rural-urban and sex disparities of leukemia mortality will continue to exist until the year 2030. According to projection, the leukemia mortality rates of males and rural populations are higher than that of females and urban populations. In 2030, leukemia mortality is projected to decrease to 3.03/100,000 and 3.33/100,000 among the males in urban and rural areas, respectively. In females, leukemia mortality will decrease to 1.87/100,000 and 2.26/100,000 among urban and rural areas, respectively. Our study suggests that more precautionary measures to reduce leukemia mortality are need, and more attention should be paid to rural residents and males in primary prevention of leukemia in China.

Why do some countries do better or worse in life expectancy relative to income? An analysis of Brazil, Ethiopia, and the United States of America

BACKGROUND

While in general a country's life expectancy increases with national income, some countries "punch above their weight", while some "punch below their weight" - achieving higher or lower life expectancy than would be predicted by their per capita income. Discovering which conditions or policies contribute to this outcome is critical to improving population health globally.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-method study which included: analysis of life expectancy relative to income for all countries; an expert opinion study; and scoping reviews of literature and data to examine factors that may impact on life expectancy relative to income in three countries: Ethiopia, Brazil, and the United States. Punching above or below weight status was calculated using life expectancy at birth and gross domestic product per capita for 2014-2018. The scoping reviews covered the political context and history, social determinants of health, civil society, and political participation in each country.

RESULTS

Possible drivers identified for Ethiopia's extra 3 years life expectancy included community-based health strategies, improving access to safe water, female education and gender empowerment, and the rise of civil society organisations. Brazil punched above its weight by 2 years. Possible drivers identified included socio-political and economic improvements, reduced inequality, female education, health care coverage, civil society, and political participation. The United States' neoliberal economics and limited social security, market-based healthcare, limited public health regulation, weak social safety net, significant increases in income inequality and lower levels of political participation may have contributed to the country punching 2.9 years below weight.

CONCLUSIONS

The review highlighted potential structural determinants driving differential performance in population health outcomes cross-nationally. These included greater equity, a more inclusive welfare system, high political participation, strong civil society and access to employment, housing, safe water, a clean environment, and education. We recommend research comparing more countries, and also to examine the processes driving within-country inequities.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Primary healthcare expansion and mortality in Brazil's urban poor: A cohort analysis of 1.2 million adults

BACKGROUND

Expanding delivery of primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low- and middle-income countries. This remains a key challenge in Brazil despite expansion of the country's internationally recognized Family Health Strategy (FHS) over the past two decades. This study evaluates the impact of an ambitious program to rapidly expand FHS coverage in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, since 2008.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A cohort of 1,241,351 low-income adults (observed January 2010-December 2016; total person-years 6,498,607) with linked FHS utilization and mortality records was analyzed using flexible parametric survival models. Time-to-death from all-causes and selected causes were estimated for FHS users and nonusers. Models employed inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA). The cohort was 61% female (751,895) and had a mean age of 36 years (standard deviation 16.4). Only 18,721 individuals (1.5%) had higher education, whereas 102,899 (8%) had no formal education. Two thirds of individuals (827,250; 67%) were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família). A total of 34,091 deaths were analyzed, of which 8,765 (26%) were due to cardiovascular disease; 5,777 (17%) were due to neoplasms; 5,683 (17%) were due to external causes; 3,152 (9%) were due to respiratory diseases; and 3,115 (9%) were due to infectious and parasitic diseases. One third of the cohort (467,155; 37.6%) used FHS services. In IPTW-RA survival analysis, an average FHS user had a 44% lower hazard of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.56, 95% CI 0.54-0.59, p < 0.001) and a 5-year risk reduction of 8.3 per 1,000 (95% CI 7.8-8.9, p < 0.001) compared with a non-FHS user. There were greater reductions in the risk of death for FHS users who were black (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.46-0.54, p < 0.001) or pardo (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60, p < 0.001) compared with white (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.63, p < 0.001); had lower educational attainment (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.46-0.55, p < 0.001) for those with no education compared to no significant association for those with higher education (p = 0.758); or were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família) (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.49-0.54, p < 0.001) compared with nonrecipients (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.60-0.67, p < 0.001). Key limitations in this study are potential unobserved confounding through selection into the program and linkage errors, although analytical approaches have minimized the potential for bias.

CONCLUSIONS

FHS utilization in urban poor populations in Brazil was associated with a lower risk of death, with greater reductions among more deprived race/ethnic and socioeconomic groups. Increased investment in primary healthcare is likely to improve health and reduce health inequalities in urban poor populations globally.

Investigating the effects of comprehensive smoke-free legislation on neonatal and infant mortality in Thailand using the synthetic control method

BACKGROUND

Almost all of the evidence on the benefits of smoke-free legislation on child health comes from evaluations in high-income countries. We investigated the effects of Thailand's 2010 comprehensive smoke-free legislation on neonatal and infant mortality.

METHODS

To overcome some of the methodological issues inherent to traditional quasi-experimental methods, we applied the novel synthetic control approach. Using 2001-2017 country-level panel data from the World Bank and Penn World datasets, we estimated the effects of smoke-free legislation as the difference between the outcome trends in Thailand versus those in a synthetic control country. The synthetic control country was composed of 'control' middle-income countries without comprehensive smoke-free legislation to recreate trends in Thailand in the 2001-2009 pre-legislation outcomes and covariates. We compared the legislation effects to 'placebo effects' obtained for each control country by fictitiously assuming that comprehensive smoke-free legislation was introduced there in 2010, similar to Thailand.

FINDINGS

Neonatal and infant mortality decreased by 2.9% and 2.8%/year respectively following smoke-free legislation, with an estimated 7463 infant deaths (including 4623 neonatal deaths) having been averted over eight years. The results were robust to different specifications of the control countries. Comparison with placebo effects indicated that the findings were unlikely to be attributable to factors other than the smoke-free legislation.

INTERPRETATION

Expanding comprehensive smoke-free policies to middle-income countries can support national efforts to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for reducing preventable early-life deaths.

FUNDING

Netherlands Lung Foundation, HDRUK, Asthma UK center for Applied Research and NIHR Global Respiratory Health Unit (RESPIRE).

Monitoring the progress of health-related sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Brazilian states using the Global Burden of Disease indicators

BACKGROUND

Measuring the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) has been the key to verifying the evolution of health indicators worldwide. We analyse subnational GBD data for Brazil in order to monitor the performance of the Brazilian states in the last 28 years on their progress towards meeting the health-related SDGs.

METHODS

As part of the GBD study, we assessed the 41 health-related indicators from the SDGs in Brazil at the subnational level for all the 26 Brazilian states and the Federal District from 1990 to 2017. The GBD group has rescaled all worldwide indicators from 0 to 100, assuming that for each one of them, the worst value among all countries and overtime is 0, and the best is 100. They also estimate the overall health-related SDG index as a function of all previously estimated health indicators and the SDI index (Socio-Demographic Index) as a function of per capita income, average schooling in the population aged 15 years or over, and total fertility rate under the age of 25 (TFU25).

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2017, most subnational health-related SDGs, the SDG and SDI indexes improved considerable in most Brazilian states. The observed differences in SDG indicators within Brazilian states, including HIV incidence and health worker density, increased over time. In 2017, health-related indicators that achieved good results globally included the prevalence of child wasting, NTD, household air pollution, conflict mortality, skilled birth attendance, use of modern contraceptive methods, vaccine coverage, and health worker density, but poor results were observed for child overweight and homicide rates. The high rates of overweight, alcohol consumption, and smoking prevalence found in the historically richest regions (i.e., the South and Southeast), contrast with the high rates of tuberculosis, maternal, neonatal, and under-5 mortality and WASH-related mortality found in the poorer regions (i.e., the North and Northeast).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of Brazil's health-related SDG indicators have substantially improved over the past 28 years. However, inequalities in health among the Brazilian states and regions remain noticeable negatively affecting the Brazilian population, which can contribute to Brazil not achieving the SDG 2030 targets.

Public health effect and its economics loss of PM2.5 pollution from coal consumption in China

China's energy structure is based on coal resource and it accounts for main proportion in the primary energy consumption. Coal consumption produces PM_2.5 pollution, which seriously affects public health. Considering that there are few studies on the effect PM_2.5 pollution produced by coal consumption, this paper uses the Poisson Regression model to estimate the impacts on public health and the economic loss of PM_2.5 pollution produced by coal consumption using the data in 2015. Based on these results, the paper also predicts the impacts on public health effect and its economic loss caused by PM_2.5 pollution from coal consumption under the baseline scenario and total coal consumption control scenario in 2020 and 2030. Finally, based on the research conclusions, suggestions are proposed to reduce the public health economic loss from PM_2.5 pollution caused by coal consumption.

Education and training in public health: is there progress in the European region?

BACKGROUND

The Association of Schools of Public Health in the European Region (ASPHER) is confronted with challenges to improve education for public health professionals. In this article, we attempt to answer the question: Did ASPHER members improve their organization and programmes to enable their graduates to acquire the competences to tackle the diverse areas of public health defined in the Ten Essential Public Health Operations (EPHOs)?

METHODS

ASPHER run two surveys among its membership: In 2011, 66 Schools and Departments of Public Health (SDPHs) took part (82.5%), while in 2015-16, 78 SDPHs (81.3%). The performance of graduates was estimated using a Likert scale.

RESULTS

In 2015-16, the SDPHs delivered 169 academic programmes (2.2 on average per SDPH). Among the SDPHs participating in both surveys, significant differences could not be determined, neither for the organization (except increasingly using social media) nor for teaching areas. The performance of graduates did not show significant differences except for the deterioration of EPHO-8 ('assuring sustainable organizational structures and financing'). However, the qualitative data revealed progressive dynamics regarding innovations in the organizational set-up, digitalization, teaching/training, introduction of new modules and research.

CONCLUSIONS

The results generated do not allow us to state that the innovative elements introduced after the first survey in 2011 have had a clear impact reflected in the second survey carried out in 2015-16, but perhaps this is due to the need for a broader follow-up in order to objectify the potential consequences derived from the boost generated by the changes introduced.

Defining diet quality: a synthesis of dietary quality metrics and their validity for the double burden of malnutrition

Achieving most of the UN Sustainable Development Goals requires a strong focus on addressing the double burden of malnutrition, which includes both diet-related maternal and child health (MCH) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Although, the most optimal dietary metric for assessing malnutrition remains unclear. Our aim was to review available global dietary quality metrics (hereafter referred to as dietary metrics) and evidence for their validity to assess MCH and NCD outcomes, both separately and together. A systematic search of PubMed was done to identify meta-analyses or narrative reviews evaluating validity of diet metrics in relation to nutrient adequacy or health outcomes. We identified seven dietary metrics aiming to address MCH and 12 for NCDs, no dietary metrics addressed both together. Four NCD dietary metrics (Mediterranean Diet Score, Alternative Healthy Eating Index, Healthy Eating Index, and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) had convincing evidence of protective associations with specific NCD outcomes, mainly mortality, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and total cancer. The remaining NCD dietary metrics and all MCH dietary metrics were not convincingly validated against MCH or NCD health outcomes. None of the dietary metrics had been validated against both MCH and NCD outcomes. These findings highlight major gaps in assessing and addressing diet to achieve global targets and effective policy action.

Assessment of Progress towards Achieving Sustainable Development Goals of the “Agenda 2030” by Using the CoCoSo and the Shannon Entropy Methods: The Case of the EU Countries

The United Nations Member States adopted the “Agenda 2030” which contains 17 sustainable development goals (SDG) that involve a certain number of targets and indicators. Although the indicators are helpful in defining the position of the current country relative to the goals’ achievement, it is very complex to determine its position relative to other countries, because this requires an extensive analysis. Therefore, in this paper, the application of the multiple-criteria decision-making approach (MCDM) in defining the position of the EU (Europe Union) countries relative to the SDGs is proposed. The MCDM model is based on the Combined Compromise Solution (CoCoSo) and the Shannon Entropy methods. The final results highlight Sweden as the country that best implemented the set SD goals and has the best outputs relative to them, while Romania is in last place. The main reason for these kinds of results could be that the countries on the bottom of the list are relatively new EU members and have not been made to properly implement SDGs yet. The conclusion is that the obtained results are fully objective and rational, and that the applied model is applicable for performing this kind of analysis.

Developing Feasible, Locally Appropriate Socioeconomic Support for TB-Affected Households in Nepal

Tuberculosis (TB), the leading single infectious diseases killer globally, is driven by poverty. Conversely, having TB worsens impoverishment. During TB illness, lost income and out-of-pocket costs can become “catastrophic”, leading patients to abandon treatment, develop drug-resistance, and die. WHO’s 2015 End TB Strategy recommends eliminating catastrophic costs and providing socioeconomic support for TB-affected people. However, there is negligible evidence to guide the design and implementation of such socioeconomic support, especially in low-income, TB-endemic countries. A national, multi-sectoral workshop was held in Kathmandu, Nepal, on the 11th and 12th September 2019, to develop a shortlist of feasible, locally appropriate socioeconomic support interventions for TB-affected households in Nepal, a low-income country with significant TB burden. The workshop brought together key stakeholders in Nepal including from the Ministry of Health and Population, Department of Health Services, Provincial Health Directorate, Health Offices, National TB Program (NTP); and TB/Leprosy Officers, healthcare workers, community health volunteers, TB-affected people, and external development partners (EDP). During the workshop, participants reviewed current Nepal NTP data and strategy, discussed the preliminary results of a mixed-methods study of the socioeconomic determinants and consequences of TB in Nepal, described existing and potential socioeconomic interventions for TB-affected households in Nepal, and selected the most promising interventions for future randomized controlled trial evaluations in Nepal. This report describes the activities, outcomes, and recommendations from the workshop.

Geographical accessibility in assessing bypassing behaviour for inpatient neonatal care, Bungoma County-Kenya

BACKGROUND

Neonatal mortality rate in Kenya continues to be unacceptably high. In reducing newborn deaths, inequality in access to care and quality care have been identified as current barriers. Contributing to these barriers are the bypassing behaviour and geographical access which leads to delay in seeking newborn care. This study (i) measured geographical accessibility of inpatient newborn care, and (ii), characterized bypassing behaviour using the geographical accessibility of the inpatient newborn care seekers.

METHODS

Geographical accessibility to the inpatient newborn units was modelled based on travel time to the units across Bungoma County. Data was then collected from 8 inpatient newborn units and 395 mothers whose newborns were admitted in the units were interviewed. Their spatial residence locations were geo-referenced and were used against the modelled travel time to define bypassing behaviour.

RESULTS

Approximately 90% of the sick newborn population have access to nearest newborn units (< 2 h). However, 36% of the mothers bypassed their nearest inpatient newborn facility, with lack of diagnostic services (28%) and distrust of health personnel (37%) being the major determinants for bypassing. Approximately 75% of the care seekers preferred to use the higher tier facilities for both maternal and neonatal care in comparison to sub-county facilities which mostly were bypassed and remained underutilised.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that though majority of the population have access to care, sub-county inpatient newborn facilities have high risk of being bypassed. There is need to improve quality of care in maternal care, to reduce bypassing behaviour and improving neonatal outcome.

Mapping of variations in child stunting, wasting and underweight within the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2000-2017

BACKGROUND

To inform actions at the district level under the National Nutrition Mission (NNM), we assessed the prevalence trends of child growth failure (CGF) indicators for all districts in India and inequality between districts within the states.

METHODS

We assessed the trends of CGF indicators (stunting, wasting and underweight) from 2000 to 2017 across the districts of India, aggregated from 5 × 5 km grid estimates, using all accessible data from various surveys with subnational geographical information. The states were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels calculated as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study based on per capita income, mean education and fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using coefficient of variation (CV). We projected the prevalence of CGF indicators for the districts up to 2030 based on the trends from 2000 to 2017 to compare with the NNM 2022 targets for stunting and underweight, and the WHO/UNICEF 2030 targets for stunting and wasting. We assessed Pearson correlation coefficient between two major national surveys for district-level estimates of CGF indicators in the states.

FINDINGS

The prevalence of stunting ranged 3.8-fold from 16.4% (95% UI 15.2-17.8) to 62.8% (95% UI 61.5-64.0) among the 723 districts of India in 2017, wasting ranged 5.4-fold from 5.5% (95% UI 5.1-6.1) to 30.0% (95% UI 28.2-31.8), and underweight ranged 4.6-fold from 11.0% (95% UI 10.5-11.9) to 51.0% (95% UI 49.9-52.1). 36.1% of the districts in India had stunting prevalence 40% or more, with 67.0% districts in the low SDI states group and only 1.1% districts in the high SDI states with this level of stunting. The prevalence of stunting declined significantly from 2010 to 2017 in 98.5% of the districts with a maximum decline of 41.2% (95% UI 40.3-42.5), wasting in 61.3% with a maximum decline of 44.0% (95% UI 42.3-46.7), and underweight in 95.0% with a maximum decline of 53.9% (95% UI 52.8-55.4). The CV varied 7.4-fold for stunting, 12.2-fold for wasting, and 8.6-fold for underweight between the states in 2017; the CV increased for stunting in 28 out of 31 states, for wasting in 16 states, and for underweight in 20 states from 2000 to 2017. In order to reach the NNM 2022 targets for stunting and underweight individually, 82.6% and 98.5% of the districts in India would need a rate of improvement higher than they had up to 2017, respectively. To achieve the WHO/UNICEF 2030 target for wasting, all districts in India would need a rate of improvement higher than they had up to 2017. The correlation between the two national surveys for district-level estimates was poor, with Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.7 only in Odisha and four small north-eastern states out of the 27 states covered by these surveys.

INTERPRETATION

CGF indicators have improved in India, but there are substantial variations between the districts in their magnitude and rate of decline, and the inequality between districts has increased in a large proportion of the states. The poor correlation between the national surveys for CGF estimates highlights the need to standardise collection of anthropometric data in India. The district-level trends in this report provide a useful reference for targeting the efforts under NNM to reduce CGF across India and meet the Indian and global targets.

Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages". While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated.

FINDINGS

Since the development and implementation of the SDGs in 2015, global health spending has increased, reaching $7·9 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 7·8-8·0) in 2017 and is expected to increase to $11·0 trillion (10·7-11·2) by 2030. In 2017, in low-income and middle-income countries spending on HIV/AIDS was $20·2 billion (17·0-25·0) and on tuberculosis it was $10·9 billion (10·3-11·8), and in malaria-endemic countries spending on malaria was $5·1 billion (4·9-5·4). Development assistance for health was $40·6 billion in 2019 and HIV/AIDS has been the health focus area to receive the highest contribution since 2004. In 2019, $374 million of DAH was provided for pandemic preparedness, less than 1% of DAH. Although spending has increased across HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria since 2015, spending has not increased in all countries, and outcomes in terms of prevalence, incidence, and per-capita spending have been mixed. The proportion of health spending from pooled sources is expected to increase from 81·6% (81·6-81·7) in 2015 to 83·1% (82·8-83·3) in 2030.

INTERPRETATION

Health spending on SDG3 priority areas has increased, but not in all countries, and progress towards meeting the SDG3 targets has been mixed and has varied by country and by target. The evidence on the scale-up of spending and improvements in health outcomes suggest a nuanced relationship, such that increases in spending do not always results in improvements in outcomes. Although countries will probably need more resources to achieve SDG3, other constraints in the broader health system such as inefficient allocation of resources across interventions and populations, weak governance systems, human resource shortages, and drug shortages, will also need to be addressed.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Burden of Pediatric Musculoskeletal Diseases Worldwide

Global burden of disease (GBD) refers to the economic and human costs resulting from poor health. The disability-adjusted life year is a measure of life lost from premature death and life not lived at 100% health. Surgery has long been neglected in the distribution of resources for global health. Because of years of life lived with a disability and the large proportion of children in a population, pediatric musculoskeletal conditions early in life can contribute to the GBD. Fortunately, the World Health Organization has recently promoted essential surgical services through its Emergency and Essential Surgical Care Project and Global Initiative.

Immigrants' mental health service use compared to that of native Finns: a register study

PURPOSE

Many aspects related to migration might predispose immigrants to mental health problems. Yet immigrants have been shown to underuse mental health services. The aim of this study was to compare the intensity of psychiatric care, as an indicator of treatment adequacy, between natives and immigrants living in Finland.

METHODS

We used nationwide register data that included all the immigrants living in Finland at the end of 2010 (n = 185,605) and their matched controls. Only those who had used mental health services were included in the analyses (n = 14,285). We used multinomial logistic regression to predict the categorized treatment intensity by immigrant status, region and country of origin, length of residence, and other background variables.

RESULTS

Immigrants used mental health services less than Finnish controls and with lower intensity. The length of residence in Finland increased the probability of higher treatment intensity. Immigrants from Eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Northern Africa were at the highest risk of receiving low-intensity treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Some immigrant groups seem to persistently receive less psychiatric treatment than Finnish-born controls. Identification of these groups is important and future research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind these patterns.

Nutrition Transition and Cancer

Urbanization, population aging, and climatic changes have mostly contributed to nutrition transition and, consequently, to effects of food habits on the epidemic of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), especially cancer. Climatic changes are negatively affecting crop production, particularly biodiversity, leading to reduced food choices and, consequently, nutritional value and the protection conferred from consumption of a variety of nutrients essential in a healthy diet. This brief review analyzes the possible link between rapid demographic changes, climatic and environmental crises, and the current food system as possible factors contributing to the role of nutrition transition in the onset of cancer.

Ongoing and planned activities to improve the management of patients with Type 1 diabetes across Africa; implications for the future

BACKGROUND

Currently about 19 million people in Africa are known to be living with diabetes, mainly Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) (95%), estimated to grow to 47 million people by 2045. However, there are concerns with early diagnosis of patients with Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) as often patients present late with complications. There are also challenges with access and affordability of insulin, monitoring equipment and test strips with typically high patient co-payments, which can be catastrophic for families. These challenges negatively impact on the quality of care of patients with T1DM increasing morbidity and mortality. There are also issues of patient education and psychosocial support adversely affecting patients' quality of life. These challenges need to be debated and potential future activities discussed to improve the future care of patients with T1DM across Africa.

METHODOLOGY

Documentation of the current situation across Africa for patients with T1DM including the epidemiology, economics, and available treatments within public healthcare systems as well as ongoing activities to improve their future care. Subsequently, provide guidance to all key stakeholder groups going forward utilizing input from senior-level government, academic and other professionals from across Africa.

RESULTS

Whilst prevalence rates for T1DM are considerably lower than T2DM, there are concerns with late diagnosis as well as the routine provision of insulin and monitoring equipment across Africa. High patient co-payments exacerbate the situation. However, there are ongoing developments to address the multiple challenges including the instigation of universal health care and partnerships with non-governmental organizations, patient organizations, and pharmaceutical companies. Their impact though remains to be seen. In the meantime, a range of activities has been documented for all key stakeholder groups to improve future care.

CONCLUSION

There are concerns with the management of patients with T1DM across Africa. A number of activities has been suggested to address this and will be monitored.

The Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in Ethiopia, 2000-2016: Analysis of Evidence from Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 and Global Health Estimates 2016

BACKGROUND

The continuing rise in the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is a key global health agendum due to the fact that NCDs cause more deaths than all other causes combined together. Although measuring the burden of NCD is very important to improve the existing health care systems and to monitor the progress of the program, a comprehensive estimate is lacking in Ethiopia. Hence, we aimed to systematically analyze the existing evidence to bring a solution.

METHODS

The research used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2016) and Global Health Estimates 2016 that originally collected the information through vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveys, reports, and modeling.

RESULTS

In 2016, NCD caused an estimated 274998.8 (95% CI: 211290.2-362882.1) deaths among all ages and both genders with a crude death rate of 268.5/100000 and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of 554.7/100000 population. It contributed to 39.3% of the total death, 53% of ASDR, and 34% of DALYs. The number of deaths and DALYs from NCD has increased by 38% and 31.5%, respectively, whereas CDR and ASDR from NCD have declined by 10.3% and 12.5%, respectively. Cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasms, digestive diseases, respiratory diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neurological conditions were the leading level 2 causes of ASDR due to NCD, while ischemic heart disease, stroke, other circulatory diseases, cirrhosis of the liver, and COPD were the top 5 causes of ASDR from NCD at level 3 causes. Conclusion and Recommendation. The burden of NCD was remarkably increased between 2000 and 2016. It carries the highest burden of ASDR. Cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms were the two most common causes of mortality and DALYs. Therefore, the existing disease prevention strategies should be strengthened by incorporating strategies addressing noncommunicable diseases.

Child Nutrition Trends Over the Past Two Decades and Challenges for Achieving Nutrition SDGs and National Targets in China

Background: The objectives of the current study were to identify the trends in child nutrition, the gaps in achieving child nutrition-related goals, and implications for program and policy options for the Chinese government. Methods: Eight child nutrition-related indicators from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and China’s national nutrition plans, and two datasets, Global Burden of Disease 2016 and Chinese National Nutrition and Health Surveillance, were used in our analysis. Results: Over the past 26 years, the prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight for children under 5 years was reduced by 58.7%, 53.4%, and 69.2%, respectively. Overweight for children aged 1–4 years increased 88.9% and obesity increased 2.14 times. Exclusive breastfeeding of newborns (7–28 days) was stable, at about 30%. We estimated child wasting would be 3.0% lower than the target of 5.0% based on predictive values for meeting the SDGs in 2025. The number of stunted children under five years would be reduced by 39.7%, while overweight would increase 2.2% throughout China. Conclusion: These results highlight the urgent need for targeted policies and interventions to reduce child stunting and overweight and increase exclusive breastfeeding to improve child health and meet the SDG targets and China’s national goals.