Contributions of diseases and injuries to widening life expectancy inequalities in England from 2001 to 2016: a population-based analysis of vital registration data

Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970-2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data

BACKGROUND

Since 2010, the rate of improvement in life expectancy in the UK has slowed. We aimed to put this trend in the context of changes over the long term and in relation to a group of other high-income countries.

METHODS

We compared sex-specific trends in life expectancy since 1970 and age-specific mortality in England and Wales with median values for 22 high-income countries (in western Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, and the USA). We used annual mortality data (1970-2016) from the Human Mortality Database.

FINDINGS

Until 2011-16, male life expectancy in England and Wales followed the median life expectancy of the comparator group. By contrast, female life expectancy was below the median and is among the lowest of the countries considered. In 2011-16, the rate of improvement in life expectancy slowed sharply for both sexes in England and Wales, and slowed more moderately in the comparator group because of negative trends in all adult age groups. This deceleration resulted in a widening gap between England and Wales and the comparators from 2011 onwards. Since the mid-2000s, for the first time, mortality rates in England and Wales among people aged 25-50 years were appreciably higher than in the comparator group.

INTERPRETATION

Although many countries have seen slower increases in life expectancy since 2011, trends in England and Wales are among the worst. The poor performance of female life expectancy over the long-term is in part driven by the relative timing of the smoking epidemic across countries. The previously overlooked higher mortality among young working-age adults in England and Wales relative to other countries deserves urgent attention.

FUNDING

None.

Temporal trends and demographic risk factors for hospital admissions due to carbon monoxide poisoning in England

Unintentional non-fire related (UNFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological data on UNFR CO poisoning can help monitor changes in the magnitude of this burden, particularly through comparisons of multiple countries, and to identify vulnerable sub-groups of the population which may be more at risk. Here, we collected data on age- and sex- specific number of hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of UNFR CO poisoning in England (2002-2016), aggregated to small areas, alongside area-level characteristics (i.e. deprivation, rurality and ethnicity). We analysed temporal trends using piecewise log-linear models and compared them to analogous data obtained for Canada, France, Spain and the US. We estimated age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants by area-level characteristics using the WHO standard population (2000-2025). We then fitted the Besag York Mollie (BYM) model, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model, to assess the independent effect of each area-level characteristic on the standardized risk of hospitalization. Temporal trends showed significant decreases after 2010. Decreasing trends were also observed across all countries studied, yet France had a 5-fold higher risk. Based on 3399 UNFR CO poisoning hospitalizations, we found an increased risk in areas classified as rural (0.69, 95% CrI: 0.67; 0.80), highly deprived (1.77, 95% CrI: 1.66; 2.10) or with the largest proportion of Asian (1.15, 95% CrI: 1.03; 1.49) or Black population (1.35, 95% CrI: 1.20; 1.80). Our multivariate approach provides strong evidence for the identification of vulnerable populations which can inform prevention policies and targeted interventions.

Temporal trends and demographic risk factors for hospital admissions due to carbon monoxide poisoning in England

Unintentional non-fire related (UNFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological data on UNFR CO poisoning can help monitor changes in the magnitude of this burden, particularly through comparisons of multiple countries, and to identify vulnerable sub-groups of the population which may be more at risk. Here, we collected data on age- and sex- specific number of hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of UNFR CO poisoning in England (2002-2016), aggregated to small areas, alongside area-level characteristics (i.e. deprivation, rurality and ethnicity). We analysed temporal trends using piecewise log-linear models and compared them to analogous data obtained for Canada, France, Spain and the US. We estimated age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants by area-level characteristics using the WHO standard population (2000-2025). We then fitted the Besag York Mollie (BYM) model, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model, to assess the independent effect of each area-level characteristic on the standardized risk of hospitalization. Temporal trends showed significant decreases after 2010. Decreasing trends were also observed across all countries studied, yet France had a 5-fold higher risk. Based on 3399 UNFR CO poisoning hospitalizations, we found an increased risk in areas classified as rural (0.69, 95% CrI: 0.67; 0.80), highly deprived (1.77, 95% CrI: 1.66; 2.10) or with the largest proportion of Asian (1.15, 95% CrI: 1.03; 1.49) or Black population (1.35, 95% CrI: 1.20; 1.80). Our multivariate approach provides strong evidence for the identification of vulnerable populations which can inform prevention policies and targeted interventions.

COVID-19 and Inequalities

This paper brings together evidence from various data sources and the most recent studies to describe what we know so far about the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on inequalities across several key domains of life, including employment and ability to earn, family life and health. We show how these new fissures interact with existing inequalities along various key dimensions, including socio-economic status, education, age, gender, ethnicity and geography. We find that the deep underlying inequalities and policy challenges that we already had are crucial in understanding the complex impacts of the pandemic itself and our response to it, and that the crisis does in itself have the potential to exacerbate some of these pre-existing inequalities fairly directly. Moreover, it seems likely that the current crisis will leave legacies that will impact inequalities in the long term. These possibilities are not all disequalising, but many are.

Cancer morbidity trends and regional differences in England-A Bayesian analysis

Reliable modelling of the dynamics of cancer morbidity risk is important, not least due to its significant impact on healthcare and related policies. We identify morbidity trends and regional differences in England for all-cancer and type-specific incidence between 1981 and 2016. We use Bayesian modelling to estimate cancer morbidity incidence at various age, year, gender, and region levels. Our analysis shows increasing trends in most rates and marked regional variations that also appear to intensify through time in most cases. All-cancer rates have increased significantly, with the highest increase in East, North West and North East. The absolute difference between the rates in the highest- and lowest-incidence region, per 100,000 people, has widened from 39 (95% CI 33-45) to 86 (78-94) for females, and from 94 (85-104) to 116 (105-127) for males. Lung cancer incidence for females has shown the highest increase in Yorkshire and the Humber, while for males it has declined in all regions with the highest decrease in London. The gap between the highest- and lowest-incidence region for females has widened from 47 (42-51) to 94 (88-100). Temporal change in in bowel cancer risk is less manifested, with regional heterogeneity also declining. Prostate cancer incidence has increased with the highest increase in London, and the regional gap has expanded from 33 (30-36) to 76 (69-83). For breast cancer incidence the highest increase has occurred in North East, while the regional variation shows a less discernible increase. The analysis reveals that there are important regional differences in the incidence of all-type and type-specific cancers, and that most of these regional differences become more pronounced over time. A significant increase in regional variation has been demonstrated for most types of cancer examined here, except for bowel cancer where differences have narrowed.

Things Fall Apart: the British Health Crisis 2010-2020

BACKGROUND

A very large number of studies have reported a stalling of health improvements in the UK since 2010.

SOURCES OF DATA

Almost all relevant data are produced by the Office for National Statistics and other national statistical agencies.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

There has been a dramatic slowdown in life expectancy and diverging trends in infant mortality in the UK as a whole and England and Wales, respectively.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

Many commentators are loath to describe the falls in life expectancy as actual falls or to ascribe blame to the political situation in the UK.

GROWING POINTS

Health trends in the UK are worrying and raise important questions about government policies.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

These findings point to a need for greater investment in research on the political determinants of health, on the timely detection and interpretation of evidence of worsening health, and on how political and policy processes respond to such findings.

Trends in disease incidence and survival and their effect on mortality in Scotland: nationwide cohort study of linked hospital admission and death records 2001-2016

OBJECTIVES

Identify causes and future trends underpinning Scottish mortality improvements and quantify the relative contributions of disease incidence and survival.

DESIGN

Population-based study.

SETTING

Linked secondary care and mortality records across Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

1 967 130 individuals born between 1905 and 1965 and resident in Scotland from 2001 to 2016.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Hospital admission rates and survival within 5 years postadmission for 28 diseases, stratified by sex and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

'Influenza and pneumonia', 'Symptoms and signs involving circulatory and respiratory systems' and 'Malignant neoplasm of respiratory and intrathoracic organs' were the hospital diagnosis groupings associated with most excess deaths, being both common and linked to high postadmission mortality. Using disease trends, we modelled a mean mortality HR of 0.737 (95% CI 0.730 to 0.745) from one decade of birth to the next, equivalent to a life extension of ~3 years per decade. This improvement was 61% (30%-93%) accounted for by improved disease survival after hospitalisation (principally cancer) with the remainder accounted for by lowered hospitalisation incidence (principally heart disease and cancer). In contrast, deteriorations in infectious disease incidence and survival increased mortality by 9% (~3.3 months per decade). Disease-driven mortality improvements were slightly greater for men than women (due to greater falls in disease incidence), and generally similar across socioeconomic deciles. We project mortality improvements will continue over the next decade but slow by 21% because much progress in disease survival has already been achieved.

CONCLUSION

Morbidity improvements broadly explain observed mortality improvements, with progress on prevention and treatment of heart disease and cancer contributing the most. The male-female health gaps are closing, but those between socioeconomic groups are not. Slowing improvements in morbidity may explain recent stalling in improvements of UK period life expectancies. However, these could be offset if we accelerate improvements in the diseases accounting for most deaths and counteract recent deteriorations in infectious disease.

Dealing with spatial misalignment to model the relationship between deprivation and life expectancy: a model-based geostatistical approach

BACKGROUND : Life expectancy at birth (LEB), one of the main indicators of human longevity, has often been used to characterise the health status of a population. Understanding its relationships with the deprivation is key to develop policies and evaluate interventions that are aimed at reducing health inequalities. However, methodological challenges in the analysis of LEB data arise from the fact that different Government agencies often provide spatially aggregated information on LEB and the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) at different spatial scales. Our objective is to develop a geostatistical framework that, unlike existing methods of inference, allows to carry out spatially continuous prediction while dealing with spatial misalignment of the areal-level data. METHODS : We developed a model-based geostatistical approach for the joint analysis of LEB and IMD, when these are available over different partitions of the study region. We model the spatial correlation in LEB and IMD across the areal units using inter-point distances based on a regular grid covering the whole of the study area. The advantages and strengths of the new methodology are illustrated through an analysis of LEB and IMD data from the Liverpool district council. RESULTS : We found that the effect of IMD on LEB is stronger in males than in females, explaining about 63.35% of the spatial variation in LEB in the former group and 38.92% in the latter. We also estimate that LEB is about 8.5 years lower between the most and least deprived area of Liverpool for men, and 7.1 years for women. Finally, we find that LEB, both in males and females, is at least 80% likely to be above the England wide average only in some areas falling in the electoral wards of Childwall, Woolton and Church. CONCLUSION : The novel model-based geostatistical framework provides a feasible solution to the spatial misalignment problem. More importantly, the proposed methodology has the following advantages over existing methods used model LEB: (1) it can deliver spatially continuous inferences using spatially aggregated data; (2) it can be applied to any form of misalignment with information provided at a range of spatial scales, from areal-level to pixel-level.

Social inequalities in multimorbidity, frailty, disability, and transitions to mortality: a 24-year follow-up of the Whitehall II cohort study

BACKGROUND

Social inequalities in mortality persist in high-income countries with universal health care, and the mechanisms by which these inequalities are generated remain unclear. We aimed to examine whether social inequalities were present before or after the onset of adverse health conditions (multimorbidity, frailty, and disability).

METHODS

Our analysis was based on data from the ongoing Whitehall II cohort study, which enrolled British civil servants aged 35-55 years in 1985-88. Participants were assessed for three indicators of socioeconomic status (education, occupational position, and literacy) at age 50 years. Participants underwent clinical examinations (in 2002-04, 2007-09, 2012-13, and 2015-16) for assessment of frailty (two or more of low physical activity, slow walking speed, poor grip strength, weight loss, and exhaustion) and disability (two or more difficulties in bathing, dressing, going to the toilet, transferring, feeding, and walking). In addition, electronic health records were used to assess the incidence of multimorbidity (two or more of diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, arthritis, cancer, dementia, and Parkinson's disease) and mortality. In analyses adjusted for sociodemographic factors, we used multistate models to examine social inequalities in transitions from healthy state to adverse health conditions and subsequently to mortality.

FINDINGS

Of 10 308 individuals in the Whitehall II study cohort, 6425 had relevant data available at 50 years and to the end of follow-up on Aug 31, 2017, and were included in our analysis. Participants were followed up for a median of 23·6 years (IQR 19·6-28·9). 1694 (26·4%) of 6425 participants developed multimorbidity, 1733 (27·0%) became frail, 692 (10·8%) had a disability, and 611 (9·5%) died. Multimorbidity (hazard ratio [HR] 4·12 [95% CI 3·41-4·98]), frailty (HR 2·38 [95% CI 1·93-2·93]), and disability (HR 1·73 [95% CI 1·34-2·22]) were associated with increased risk of mortality; these associations were not modified by socioeconomic status. In multistate models, occupation was the socioeconomic status indicator that was most strongly associated with inequalities in the transition from healthy state to multimorbidity (HR 1·54 [95% CI 1·37-1·73]), to frailty (HR 2·08 [95% CI 1·85-2·33]), and to disability (HR 1·44 [95% CI 1·18-1·74]). Socioeconomic status indicators did not affect transitions to mortality in those with multimorbidity, frailty, or disability.

INTERPRETATION

Socioeconomic status affects the risk of multimorbidity, frailty, and disability, but does not affect the risk of mortality after the onset of these adverse health conditions. Therefore, primary prevention is key to reducing social inequalities in mortality. Of the three adverse health conditions, multimorbidity had the strongest association with mortality, making it a central target for improving population health.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council; National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; British Heart Foundation.

Assessing the impact of rising child poverty on the unprecedented rise in infant mortality in England, 2000-2017: time trend analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether there were inequalities in the sustained rise in infant mortality in England in recent years and the contribution of rising child poverty to these trends.

DESIGN

This is an analysis of trends in infant mortality in local authorities grouped into five categories (quintiles) based on their level of income deprivation. Fixed-effects regression models were used to quantify the association between regional changes in child poverty and regional changes in infant mortality.

SETTING

324 English local authorities in 9 English government office regions.

PARTICIPANTS

Live-born children under 1 year of age.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Infant mortality rate, defined as the number of deaths in children under 1 year of age per 100 000 live births in the same year.

RESULTS

The sustained and unprecedented rise in infant mortality in England from 2014 to 2017 was not experienced evenly across the population. In the most deprived local authorities, the previously declining trend in infant mortality reversed and mortality rose, leading to an additional 24 infant deaths per 100 000 live births per year (95% CI 6 to 42), relative to the previous trend. There was no significant change from the pre-existing trend in the most affluent local authorities. As a result, inequalities in infant mortality increased, with the gap between the most and the least deprived local authority areas widening by 52 deaths per 100 000 births (95% CI 36 to 68). Overall from 2014 to 2017, there were a total of 572 excess infant deaths (95% CI 200 to 944) compared with what would have been expected based on historical trends. We estimated that each 1% increase in child poverty was significantly associated with an extra 5.8 infant deaths per 100 000 live births (95% CI 2.4 to 9.2). The findings suggest that about a third of the increases in infant mortality between 2014 and 2017 can be attributed to rising child poverty (172 deaths, 95% CI 74 to 266).

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that the unprecedented rise in infant mortality disproportionately affected the poorest areas of the country, leaving the more affluent areas unaffected. Our analysis also linked the recent increase in infant mortality in England with rising child poverty, suggesting that about a third of the increase in infant mortality from 2014 to 2017 may be attributed to rising child poverty.

The social context of substance use among older adults: Implications for nursing practice

AIM

The purposes of this paper are (a) to critically analyse the social context of substance use among older adults and (b) to offer strategies for nurses and other health care providers to support the health of older adults experiencing problematic substance use.

DESIGN

Discussion paper.

METHODS

This analysis is informed by two theoretical lenses: an intersectional lens in examining the various factors influencing health and health care access; and a social justice lens, focusing on promoting health equity for older populations.

RESULTS

As a result of various social and sociopolitical factors, key issues are likely to arise for older adults experiencing problematic substance use including health and social inequities, stigma, and discrimination, all of which can result in serious negative health outcomes. Health care providers can help mitigate these effects by (a) promoting harm reduction principles; (b) participating in social justice actions; and (c) engaging in contextual assessments of substance use.

Socioeconomic inequality in recent adverse all-cause mortality trends in Scotland

Background

Gains in life expectancies have stalled in Scotland, as in several other countries, since around 2012. The relationship between stalling mortality improvements and socioeconomic inequalities in health is unclear.

Methods

We calculate the difference, as percentage change, in all-cause, all-age, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) between 2006 and 2011 (period 1) and between 2012 and 2017 (period 2), for Scotland overall, by sex, and by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintile. Linear regression is used to summarise the relationship between SIMD quintile and mortality rate change in each period.

Results

Between 2006 and 2011, the overall ASMR fell by 10.6% (138/100 000), by 10.1% in women, and 11.8% in men, but between 2012 and 2017 the overall ASMR fell by only 2.6% (30/100 000), by 3.5% in women, and by 2.0% in men. Within the most deprived quintile, the overall ASMR fell by 8.6% (143/100 000) from 2006 to 2011 (7.2% in women; 9.8% in men), but rose by 1.5% (21/100 000) from 2012 to 2017 (0.7% in women; 2.1% in men). The socioeconomic gradient in ASMR improvement more than quadrupled, from 0.4% per quintile in period 1, to 1.7% per quintile in period 2.

Conclusion

From 2012 to 2017, socioeconomic gradients in mortality improvement in Scotland were markedly steeper than over the preceding 6 years. As a result, there has not only been a slowdown in overall reductions in mortality, but a widening of socioeconomic mortality inequalities.

Impact of Universal Credit in North East England: a qualitative study of claimants and support staff

OBJECTIVES

To understand the impact of the roll-out of Universal Credit (UC) from the perspectives of claimants and staff supporting them in North East England.

DESIGN

Qualitative study comprising interviews and focus groups.

SETTING

Gateshead and Newcastle, two localities in North East England characterised by high levels of socioeconomic deprivation, where the roll-out of UC started in 2017 as a new way to deliver welfare benefits for the UK working age population.

PARTICIPANTS

33 UC claimants with complex needs, disabilities and health conditions and 37 staff from local government, housing, voluntary and community sector organisations.

RESULTS

Participants' accounts of the UC claims process and the consequences of managing on UC are reported; UC negatively impacts on material wellbeing, physical and mental health, social and family lives. UC claimants described the digital claims process as complicated, disorientating, impersonal, hostile and demeaning. Claimants reported being pushed into debt, rent arrears, housing insecurity, fuel and food poverty through UC. System failures, indifference and delays in receipt of UC entitlements exacerbated the difficulties of managing on a low income. The threat of punitive sanctions for failing to meet the enhanced conditionality requirements under UC added to claimant's vulnerabilities and distress. Staff reported concerns for claimants and additional pressures on health services, local government and voluntary and community sector organisations as a result of UC.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings add considerable detail to emerging evidence of the deleterious effects of UC on vulnerable claimants' health and wellbeing. Our evidence suggests that UC is undermining vulnerable claimants' mental health, increasing the risk of poverty, hardship, destitution and suicidality. Major, evidence-informed revisions are required to improve the design and implementation of UC to prevent further adverse effects before large numbers of people move on to UC, as planned by the UK government.

Preventable Mortality in Regions of Slovakia-Quantification of Regional Disparities and Investigation of the Impact of Environmental Factors

Environmental health is among the priority areas of public health, and the current professional communities are intensively engaged with it. The main objective of the study is to quantify regional disparities of preventable mortality in Slovakia and to study the extent of the influence of selected environmental factors on changes in the development of its values. A cross-sectional linear regression model is used to quantify effects of environmental factors on the preventable mortality. Also, cluster analysis is used to identify regions with similar levels of air pollution. Environmental factors were selected based on the study of the World Health Organization. From the point of view of the influence of environmental factors on preventable mortality in the case of men, statistically significant connection to sewerage, SO₂ production, and production of particulate matter was demonstrated. In the case of women, equally important factors showed connection to sewerage and SO₂. The results of this study point to significant regional disparities in preventable mortality and a different degree of impact of environmental factors. Preventable mortality is above the Slovak average in most of the least-developed districts. Even in this group, there are significant differences.

Are There Changes in Inequalities in Injuries? A Review of Evidence in the WHO European Region

Decreases in injury rates globally and in Europe in the past decades, although encouraging, may mask previously reported social inequalities between and within countries that persist or even increase. European research on this issue has not been systematically reviewed, which is the aim of this article. Between and within-country studies from the WHO European Region that investigate changes in social inequalities in injuries over time or in recent decades were sought in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Of the 27 studies retained, seven were cross-country and 20 were country-specific. Twelve reported changes in inequalities over time and the remaining 15 shed light on other aspects of inequalities. A substantial downward trend in injuries is reported for all causes and cause-specific ones—alongside persisting inequalities between countries and, in a majority of studies, within countries. Studies investigate diverse questions in different population groups. Depending on the social measure and injury outcome considered, many report inequalities in injuries albeit to a varying degree. Despite the downward trends in risk levels, relative social inequalities in injuries remain a persisting public health issue in the European Region.

The NHS long term plan

Rightly ambitious, but can the NHS deliver?