Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

Denis LA. Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires

Structure loss is an acute, costly impact of the wildfire crisis in the western conterminous United States ("West"), motivating the need to understand recent trends and causes. We document a 246% rise in West-wide structure loss from wildfires between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020, driven strongly by events in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Increased structure loss was not due to increased area burned alone. Wildfires became significantly more destructive, with a 160% higher structure-loss rate (loss/kha burned) over the past decade. Structure loss was driven primarily by wildfires from unplanned human-related ignitions (e.g. backyard burning, power lines, etc.), which accounted for 76% of all structure loss and resulted in 10 times more structures destroyed per unit area burned compared with lightning-ignited fires. Annual structure loss was well explained by area burned from human-related ignitions, while decadal structure loss was explained by state-level structure abundance in flammable vegetation. Both predictors increased over recent decades and likely interacted with increased fuel aridity to drive structure-loss trends. While states are diverse in patterns and trends, nearly all experienced more burning from human-related ignitions and/or higher structure-loss rates, particularly California, Washington, and Oregon. Our findings highlight how fire regimes-characteristics of fire over space and time-are fundamentally social-ecological phenomena. By resolving the diversity of Western fire regimes, our work informs regionally appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. With millions of structures with high fire risk, reducing human-related ignitions and rethinking how we build are critical for preventing future wildfire disasters.

Spatially extended radiant heat fire model

Recent wildfire prevalence and destruction have led to new initiatives in the search for better land management techniques and prescriptions for controlled burns. With limited data on low-intensity prescribed burns, finding models that can represent fire behavior is of great importance to learning how to control fires with more accuracy while also maintaining the purpose for the burn, be it reducing fuels or managing the ecosystem. Here we use a data set of infrared temperatures collected in the New Jersey Pine Barrens from 2017 through 2020 to develop a model for very fine-scale fire behavior (≈0.05 m^{2}). The model uses distributions from the data set to define five stages in fire behavior in a cellular automata framework. For each cell, the transition between each stage is probabilistically driven based on the radiant temperature values of the cell and its immediate neighbors in a coupled map lattice. With five distinct initial conditions, we performed 100 simulations and used the parameters derived from the data set to develop metrics for model verification. To validate the model, we also expanded it to include variables not in the data set that are important for fire behavior, e.g., fuel moisture levels and spotting ignitions. The model matches several metrics compared to the observational data set and exhibits behavioral characteristics expected from low-intensity wildfire behavior including a long and varied burn time for each cell after initial ignition, and lingering embers in the burn zone.

Roxborough Park Community Wildfire Evacuation Drill: Data Collection and Model Benchmarking

Wildfires are increasing in scale, frequency and longevity, and are affecting new locations as environmental conditions change. This paper presents a dataset collected during a community evacuation drill performed in Roxborough Park, Colorado (USA) in 2019. This is a wildland-urban interface community including approximately 900 homes. Data concerning several aspects of community response were collected through observations and surveys: initial population location, pre-evacuation times, route use, and arrival times at the evacuation assembly point. Data were used as inputs to benchmark two evacuation models that adopt different modelling approaches. The WUI-NITY platform and the Evacuation Management System model were applied across a range of scenarios where assumptions regarding pre-evacuation delays and the routes used were varied according to original data collection methods (and interpretation of the data generated). Results are mostly driven by the assumptions adopted for pre-evacuation time inputs. This is expected in communities with a low number of vehicles present on the road and relatively limited traffic congestion. The analysis enabled the sensitivity of the modelling approaches to different datasets to be explored, given the different modelling approaches adopted. The performance of the models were sensitive to the data employed (derived from either observations or self-reporting) and the evacuation phases addressed in them. This indicates the importance of monitoring the impact of including data in a model rather than simply on the data itself, as data affects models in different ways given the modelling methods employed. The dataset is released in open access and is deemed to be useful for future wildfire evacuation modelling calibration and validation efforts.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10694-023-01371-1.

Wildland-urban interface fire ashes as a major source of incidental nanomaterials

Although metal and metalloid concentrations in wildfire ashes have been documented, the nature and concentrations of incidental nanomaterials (INMs) in wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire ashes have received considerably less attention. In this study, the total metal and metalloid concentrations of 57 vegetation, structural, and vehicle ashes and underlying soils collected at the WUI following the 2020 fire season in northern California - North Complex Fire and LNU Lightning Complex Fire - were determined using inductively coupled plasma-time of flight-mass spectrometry after microwave-assisted acid digestion. The concentrations of Ti, Zn, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sn, Sb, Co, Bi, Cr, Ba, As, Rb, and W are generally higher in structural/vehicle-derived ashes than in vegetation-derived ashes and soils. The concentrations of Ca, Sr, Rb, and Ag increased with increased combustion completeness (e.g., black ash < gray ash < white ash), whereas those of C, N, Zn, Pb, and In decreased with increased combustion completeness. The concentration of anthropogenic Ti - determined by mass balance calculations and shifts in Ti/Nb above the natural background ratios - was highest in vehicle ash (median: 30.8 g kg^-1, range: 4.5-41.0 g kg^-1) followed by structural ash (median: 5.5 g kg^-1, range: of 0-77.4 g kg^-1). Various types of carbonaceous INM (e.g., amorphous carbon, turbostratic-like carbon, and carbon associated with zinc oxides) and metal-bearing INMs (e.g., Ti, Cu, Fe, Zn, Mn, Pb, and Cr) with sizes between few nanometers to few hundreds of nanometers were evidenced in ashes using transmission electron microscopy, including energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Overall, this study demonstrates the abundance of a variety of metals and metalloids in the form of INMs in WUI fire ashes. This study also highlights the need for further research into the formation, transformation, reactivity, fate, and effects of INMs during and following fires at the WUI.

Homeowner firewise behaviors in fire-prone central Oregon: An exploration of the attitudinal, situational, and cultural worldviews impacting pre-fire mitigation actions

As a result of climate change and past management practices, wildfires are becoming larger and occurring more frequently than ever before in the Western U.S. In order to mitigate the effects of this growing threat, fire management agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service have encouraged residents in at-risk communities to protect their homes, property, and communities by adopting Firewise recommendations. Using a survey of wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners in fire-prone Deschutes County, Oregon, this study examines homeowners' participation in Firewise activities. While the majority of survey respondents were concerned about the risk of a fire and damage to their property, engagement in pre-fire mitigation actions varied based on the level of concern, previous experience with wildfire, the presence of land use rules and policies, and close proximity to forests or rangelands. In addition, the application of cultural theory (cultural traits) to understand participation in Firewise activities revealed that respondents who have egalitarian cultural traits participate in more Firewise behaviors than those respondents who have hierarchical, individualistic and fatalist cultural traits. Fatalists participate in significantly fewer Firewise activities when compared to the other cultural traits. Results suggest that encouraging more engagement in Firewise activities requires a multi-faceted strategy employing both voluntary and compulsory actions.

Computational Approach to Link Chemicals in Anthropogenic Smoke Particulate Matter with Toxicity

A weighted chemical coexpression network analysis (WCCNA) was utilized to identify chemicals co-modulated to variable burning of anthropogenic materials and to link chemicals to biological responses (lung toxicity and mutagenicity). Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were co-modulated with increased concentrations in flaming smoke particulate matter (PM) from the burning of plastic-containing materials and showed significant association with increased neutrophil influx, cytokine levels, and mutagenicity. Inorganic elements were co-modulated with increased concentrations in flaming plywood and cardboard smoke PM and showed significant association with increased protein and albumin levels. This study shows the potential for using a computational network analysis to identify and prioritize hazardous chemical components within complex environmental mixtures and provides guidance on key chemical tracers required for intervention research to protect public health from the exposure.

Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States

As global climate change progresses, the United States (US) is expected to experience warmer temperatures as well as more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heat waves, hurricanes, and wildfires. Each year, these events cost dozens of lives and do billions of dollars' worth of damage, but there has been limited research on how they influence human decisions about migration. Are people moving toward or away from areas most at risk from these climate threats? Here, we examine recent (2010–2020) trends in human migration across the US in relation to features of the natural landscape and climate, as well as frequencies of various natural hazards. Controlling for socioeconomic and environmental factors, we found that people have moved away from areas most affected by heat waves and hurricanes, but toward areas most affected by wildfires. This relationship may suggest that, for many, the dangers of wildfires do not yet outweigh the perceived benefits of life in fire-prone areas. We also found that people have been moving toward metropolitan areas with relatively hot summers, a dangerous public health trend if mean and maximum temperatures continue to rise, as projected in most climate scenarios. These results have implications for policymakers and planners as they prepare strategies to mitigate climate change and natural hazards in areas attracting migrants.

Public and manager perceptions about prescribed fire in the Mid-Atlantic, United States

Firescapes of the Mid-Atlantic are understudied compared to other ecosystems in the United States, and little is known about the acceptance of prescribed fire as a forest management tool. Yet, this region harbors high levels of wildland-urban interface (WUI), has a close intermingling of land ownerships, and reflects substantial regional heterogeneity in burning histories and fire hazards. As prescribed fire is increasingly applied in the Mid-Atlantic as a critical tool to meet various land management objectives, research is needed to help managers understand community perceptions of prescribed fire implementation. Through intercept surveys of forest recreationists and online surveys of fire managers, this study investigates perceptions about prescribed fire use in the Mid-Atlantic, in addition to the critical contributing factors of public support toward prescribed fires. Two states, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, were selected as case studies to explore regional differences in social perception due to their contrasts in fire history, policy, management objectives, and social exposure. Our results show moderate social awareness of local prescribed fires, moderate to high familiarity with prescribed burning, high agency trust, and strong community support toward prescribed fires. However, the perceived concerns and benefits differed between managers and forest recreationists and between recreationists from Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The factors influencing the support of prescribed burning practices included forest management beliefs, concern about prescribed fire effects, familiarity with prescribed fires as a forest management tool, and awareness of local prescribed fires. Collectively, these results highlighted needs in public outreach to strengthen education, build broader community awareness, engage critical stakeholder groups such as forest recreationists, and re-align public outreach messages based on community-level concerns and perceived benefits. Additionally, it will be vital for the scientific community to help monitor critical shifts in forest value orientations and fill in significant research gaps regarding prescribed fire benefits.

Impacts of livestock grazing on the probability of burning in wildfires vary by region and vegetation type in California

Wildfire activity has recently increased in California, impacting ecosystems and human well-being. California's rangelands are complex social-ecological systems composed of multiple ecosystems and the people who live and work in them. Livestock grazing has been proposed as a tool for reducing wildfire activity. Here, we explore how grazing affects wildfire at large spatial scales, assessing burn probability on rangelands with different grazing levels. We collected grazing data by surveying 140 large private landowners in three social-ecological regions: California's North Bay, Central Coast, and Central Valley and Foothills. Using pre-regression matching and mixed effects regression, we calculate the burn probability from 2001 to 2017 in points sampled from grazed and ungrazed properties in each region in grasslands, shrub/scrublands, and forests. We find that in the Central Coast and North Bay, annual burn probability decreases as stocking levels increase across all vegetation types, with reductions of 0.008-0.036. In the Central Valley and Foothills, the relationship is complex, with burn probability increasing over some grazing levels and variations in the effect of higher stocking densities. Our results indicate that livestock grazing may reduce annual burn probability in some regions and ecosystems in California, providing the first large-scale assessment of this relationship.

Adverse effects of air pollution-derived fine particulate matter on cardiovascular homeostasis and disease

Air pollution is a rapidly growing major health concern around the world. Atmospheric particulate matter that has a diameter of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) refers to an air pollutant composed of particles and chemical compounds that originate from various sources. While epidemiological studies have established the association between PM2.5 exposure and cardiovascular diseases, the precise cellular and molecular mechanisms by which PM2.5 promotes cardiovascular complications are yet to be fully elucidated. In this review, we summarize the various sources of PM2.5, its components, and the concentrations of ambient PM2.5 in various settings. We discuss the experimental findings to date that evaluate the potential adverse effects of PM2.5 on cardiovascular homeostasis and function, and the possible therapeutic options that may alleviate PM2.5-driven cardiovascular damage.

Beyond Particulate Matter Mass: Heightened Levels of Lead and Other Pollutants Associated with Destructive Fire Events in California

As the climate warms, wildfire activity is increasing, posing a risk to human health. Studies have reported on particulate matter (PM) in wildfire smoke, yet the chemicals associated with PM have received considerably less attention. Here, we analyzed 13 years (2006-2018) of PM_2.5 chemical composition data from monitors in California on smoke-impacted days. Select chemicals (e.g., aluminum and sulfate) were statistically elevated on smoke-impacted days in over half of the years studied. Other chemicals, mostly trace metals harmful to human health (e.g., copper and lead), were elevated during particular fires only. For instance, in 2018, lead was more than 40 times higher on smoke days on average at the Point Reyes monitoring station, due mostly to the Camp Fire, burning approximately 200 km away. There was an association between these metals and the combustion of anthropogenic material (e.g., the burning of houses and vehicles). Although still currently rare, these infrastructure fires are likely becoming more common and can mobilize trace metals in smoke far downwind, at levels generally unseen except in the most polluted areas of the country. We hope a better understanding of the chemicals in wildfire smoke will assist in the communication and reduction of public health risks.

Assessing the impact of wildfires on property values in wildland-urban intermix and interface in Colorado: A hedonic approach

In this article, we investigate the impact of wildfire on property values in wildland-urban intermix (WUIM) and wildland-urban interface (WUIF) in Colorado. We construct fire indices accounting for the nonlinear impact of wildfires, and evaluate the effects of different fire attributes-proximity, frequency, and scale-on property values in a hedonic price framework using housing transactions data and wildfire data in Colorado from 2000 to 2016. We find a substantial difference in the impact of wildfires on property values between WUIM and WUIF. Specifically, larger fires depreciate property values in WUIM, but increase property values in WUIF. In addition, we find that small fires lead to a negative impact on property values in both WUIM and WUIF, which is comparable with larger fires. Our findings provide policymakers novel information in making more efficient wildfire management plans.

Priming close social contact protective behaviors enhances protective social norms perceptions, protection views, and self-protective behaviors during disasters

Many people do not make choices that minimize risk in the face of health and environmental threats. Using pre-registered analyses, we tested whether a risk communication that primed perceptions about health-protective preparation and behavior of close social contacts promoted protection views and protective behaviors. From December 10-24, 2020, we fielded a 2 (threat vignette: wildfire or COVID-19) x 3 (social contact prime: control, inaction, or action) experiment to a representative sample of 1,108 California residents facing increased COVID-19 cases/deaths, who had recently experienced the most destructive wildfire season in California history. Outcome variables were protection views and protective behavior (i.e., information seeking). Across threat conditions, stronger social norms, efficacy, and worry predicted greater protection views and some protective behaviors. Priming social-contact action resulted in greater COVID-19 information-seeking compared to the control. In the wildfire smoke condition, priming social contact action and inaction increased perceived protective behavior social norms compared to the control; social norms partially mediated the relationships of priming with protection views and protective behaviors; and having existing mask supplies enhanced the relationship between priming inaction and greater protection views compared to priming action or the control. Findings highlight the importance of social influence for health protection views and protective behaviors. Communications enhancing social norms that are sensitive to resource contexts may help promote protective behaviors.

Restoration and fuel hazard reduction result in equivalent reductions in crown fire behavior in dry conifer forests

Over the past several decades, the management of historically frequent-fire forests in the western United States has received significant attention due to the linked ecological and social risks posed by the increased occurrence of large, contiguous patches of high-severity fire. As a result, efforts are underway to simultaneously reduce potential fire and fuel hazards and restore characteristics indicative of historical forest structures and ecological processes that enhance the diversity and quality of wildlife habitat across landscapes. Despite widespread agreement on the need for action, there is a perceived tension among scientists concerning silvicultural treatments that modify stands to optimally reduce potential fire behavior (fuel hazard reduction) versus those that aim to emulate historical forest structures and create structurally complex stands (restoration). In this work, we evaluated thinning treatments in the Black Hills National Forest that exemplify the extremes of a treatment continuum that ranges from fuel hazard reduction to restoration. The goal of this work was to understand how the differing three-dimensional stand structures created by these treatment approaches altered potential fire behavior. Our results indicate that restoration treatments created higher levels of vertical and horizontal structural complexity than the fuel hazard reduction treatments but resulted in similar reductions to potential crown fire behavior. There were some trade-offs identified as the restoration treatments created larger openings, which generated faster mean rates of fire spread; however, these increased spread rates did not translate to higher levels of canopy consumption. Overall, our results suggest that treatments can create vertical and horizontal complexity desired for restoration and wildlife habitat management while reducing fire hazard and that they can be used in concert with traditional fuel hazard reduction treatments to reduce landscape scale fire risk. We also provide some suggestions to land managers seeking to design and implement prescriptions that emulate historical structures and enhance forest complexity.

Up in smoke: California's greenhouse gas reductions could be wiped out by 2020 wildfires

In this short communication, we estimate that California's wildfire carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions from 2020 are approximately two times higher than California's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions since 2003. Without considering future vegetation regrowth, CO₂e emissions from the 2020 wildfires could be the second most important source in the state above either industry or electrical power generation. Regrowth may partly of fully occur over a long period, but due to exigencies of the climate crisis most of the regrowth will not occur quickly enough to avert greater than 1.5 degrees of warming. Global monetized damages caused by CO₂e from in 2020 wildfire emissions amount to some $7.1 billion USD. Our analysis suggests that significant societal benefits could accrue from larger investments in improved forest management and stricter controls on new development in fire-prone areas at the wildland-urban interface.

Future land-use competition constrains natural climate solutions

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are an essential complement to climate mitigation and have been increasingly incorporated into international mitigation strategies. Yet, with the ongoing population growth, allocating natural areas for NCS may compete with other socioeconomic priorities, especially urban development and food security. Here, we projected the impacts of land-use competition incurred by cropland and urban expansion on the climate mitigation potential of NCS. We mapped the areas available for implementing 9 key NCS strategies and estimated their climate change mitigation potential. Then, we overlaid these areas with future cropland and urban expansion maps projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2020-2100) and calculated the resulting mitigation potential loss of each selected NCS strategy. Our results estimate a substantial reduction, 0.3-2.8 GtCO₂ yr^-1 or 4-39 %, in NCS mitigation potential, of which cropland expansion for fulfilling future food demand is the primary cause. This impact is particularly severe in the tropics where NCS hold the most abundant mitigation potential. Our findings highlight immediate actions prioritized to tropical areas are important to best realize NCS and are key to developing realistic and sustainable climate policies.

Fire-driven vegetation type conversion in Southern California

One consequence of global change causing widespread concern is the possibility of ecosystem conversions from one type to another. A classic example of this is vegetation type conversion (VTC) from native woody shrublands to invasive annual grasslands in the biodiversity hotspot of Southern California. Although the significance of this problem is well recognized, understanding where, how much, and why this change is occurring remains elusive owing to differences in results from studies conducted using different methods, spatial extents, and scales. Disagreement has arisen particularly over the relative importance of short-interval fires in driving these changes. Chronosequence approaches that use space for time to estimate changes have produced different results than studies of changes at a site over time. Here we calculated the percentage woody and herbaceous cover across Southern California using air photos from ~1950 to 2019. We assessed the extent of woody cover change and the relative importance of fire history, topography, soil moisture, and distance to human infrastructure in explaining change across a hierarchy of spatial extents and regions. We found substantial net decline in woody cover and expansion of herbaceous vegetation across all regions, but the most dramatic changes occurred in the northern interior and southern coastal areas. Variables related to frequent, short-interval fire were consistently top ranked as the explanation for shrub to grassland type conversion, but low soil moisture and topographic complexity were also strong correlates. Despite the consistent importance of fire, there was substantial geographical variation in the relative importance of drivers, and these differences resulted in different mapped predictions of VTC. This geographical variation is important to recognize for management decision-making and, in addition to differences in methodological design, may also partly explain differences in previous study results. The overwhelming importance of short-interval fire has management implications. It suggests that actions should be directed away from imposing fires to preventing fires. Prevention can be controlled through management actions that limit ignitions, fire spread, and the damage sustained in areas that do burn. This study also demonstrates significant potential for changing fire regimes to drive large-scale, abrupt ecological change.

Wildfire, Smoke Exposure, Human Health, and Environmental Justice Need to be Integrated into Forest Restoration and Management

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Increasing wildfire size and severity across the western United States has created an environmental and social crisis that must be approached from a transdisciplinary perspective. Climate change and more than a century of fire exclusion and wildfire suppression have led to contemporary wildfires with more severe environmental impacts and human smoke exposure. Wildfires increase smoke exposure for broad swaths of the US population, though outdoor workers and socially disadvantaged groups with limited adaptive capacity can be disproportionally exposed. Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with a range of health impacts in children and adults, including exacerbation of existing respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, worse birth outcomes, and cardiovascular events. Seasonally dry forests in Washington, Oregon, and California can benefit from ecological restoration as a way to adapt forests to climate change and reduce smoke impacts on affected communities.

RECENT FINDINGS

Each wildfire season, large smoke events, and their adverse impacts on human health receive considerable attention from both the public and policymakers. The severity of recent wildfire seasons has state and federal governments outlining budgets and prioritizing policies to combat the worsening crisis. This surging attention provides an opportunity to outline the actions needed now to advance research and practice on conservation, economic, environmental justice, and public health interests, as well as the trade-offs that must be considered. Scientists, planners, foresters and fire managers, fire safety, air quality, and public health practitioners must collaboratively work together. This article is the result of a series of transdisciplinary conversations to find common ground and subsequently provide a holistic view of how forest and fire management intersect with human health through the impacts of smoke and articulate the need for an integrated approach to both planning and practice.

As California burns: the psychology of wildfire- and wildfire smoke-related migration intentions

Climate change impacts and rapid development in the wildland-urban interface are increasing population exposure and vulnerability to the harmful effects of wildfire and wildfire smoke. The direct and indirect effects of these hazards may impact future mobility decisions among populations at risk. To better understand how perceptions and personal experience inform wildfire- and smoke-associated migration intentions, we surveyed a representative sample of 1108 California residents following the 2020 wildfire season. We assessed the associations between threat appraisal, coping appraisal, personal experience, migration intentions, the impact of wildfire and smoke on migration intentions and place satisfaction, and the potential likelihood of future migration. Results indicate that roughly a third of our sample intended to move in the next 5 years, nearly a quarter of whom reported that wildfire and smoke impacted their migration decision at least a moderate amount. Prior negative outcomes (e.g., evacuating, losing property) were associated with intentions to migrate. Perceived susceptibility and prior negative outcomes were associated with a greater impact of wildfire and smoke on migration intentions. For those intending to remain in place, prior negative outcomes were associated with a greater impact of wildfire and smoke on place satisfaction, which was in turn associated with a greater reported likelihood of future migration. Our findings suggest that perceptions of and experiences with wildfire and smoke may impact individual mobility decisions. These insights may be leveraged to inform risk communications and outreach campaigns to encourage wildfire and smoke risk mitigation behaviors and to improve climate migration modeling.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-022-00409-w.

Housing starts and the associated wood products carbon storage by county by Shared Socioeconomic Pathway in the United States

Harvested wood products found in the built environment are an important carbon sink, helping to mitigate climate change, and their trends in use are determined by economic and demographic factors, which vary spatially. Spatially detailed projections of construction and stored carbon are needed for industry and public decision making, including for appreciating trends in values at risk from catastrophic disturbances. We specify econometric models of single-family and multifamily housing starts by U.S. Census Region, design a method for their spatial downscaling to the county level, and project their quantities and carbon content according to the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Starts are projected to decline across all scenarios and potentially drop to below housing replacement levels under SSP3 by mid-century. Wood products carbon stored nationally in structures in use and in landfills is projected to grow across all scenarios but with significant spatial heterogeneity related to disparate trends in construction across counties, ranging from strong growth in the urban counties of the coastal South and West to stagnation in rural counties of the Great Plains and the northern Rockies. The estimated average annual carbon stored in wood products used in and discarded from US residential housing units between 2015–2070 ranged from 51 million t CO₂e in SSP3 to 85 million t CO₂e in SSP5, representing 47% to 78% of total carbon uptake relative to uptake by all wood products in the United States in 2019.

Exploring relationships between perceived suppression capabilities and resident performance of wildfire mitigations

Increased wildfire activity has led to renewed interest in enhancing local capacity to reduce wildfire risk in residential areas. Local fire departments (LFDs) are often the first responders to rural wildfires. However, LFDs may also struggle to address service demands in the growing wildland urban interface, including increasing numbers of wildfire incidents and changes in area socio-demographics (e.g., aging populations) or culture (e.g., decreasing volunteerism, new residents). We used a mixed-mode survey (n = 770) to explore rural perceptions of various fire service organizations (FSOs), including LFDs, in wildfire-prone areas of northeastern Washington State, USA. We also explore relationships between perceptions of LFD capabilities or capacity (e.g., personnel, LFD ability to respond to private property during a wildfire event) and resident performance of eleven wildfire risk mitigation activities that contribute to home defense (e.g., development of a water supply, installing sprinklers). We found that study participants have relatively high levels of trust in LFD's to respond to a wildfire event on their properties. This trust is also slightly higher than the amount of trust placed in other FSOs (e.g., state, federal, private contractors). Respondents also largely understand that LFDs do not have sufficient capacity or capability to respond when wildfire events impact multiple private properties in their area. Trust in LFDs was significantly and negatively correlated with resident installation of fire-resistant siding, installation of sprinklers on their home, and placing firewood or lumber more than 30 feet (∼9 m) from their dwelling. Similarly, respondents' perceptions of LFD capacity and capabilities was significantly and negatively correlated with purchasing a generator and stacking firewood more than 30 feet (∼9 m) from their home. Our results suggest that perceptions of FSOs have the potential associations with resident performance of select wildfire mitigation actions (e.g., firewood placement, installation of non-flammable siding). However, they also were not significantly related to many other mitigations suggested for residents to complete as part of broader wildfire management strategies (e.g., driveway clearance, water supply establishment, safe zone creation).

Wildfire Smoke Exposure is Associated with Adverse Respiratory Events Under General Anesthesia in At-Risk Pediatric Patients

BACKGROUND

Increasing wildfire activity worldwide has led to exposure to poor air quality and numerous detrimental health impacts. This study hypothesized an association between exposure to poor air quality from wildfire smoke and adverse respiratory events under general anesthesia in pediatric patients.

METHODS

This was a single-center retrospective double-cohort study examining two significant wildfire events in Northern California. Pediatric patients presenting for elective surgery during periods of unhealthy air quality were compared to those during periods of healthy air quality. The primary exposure, unhealthy air, was determined using local air quality sensors. The primary outcome was the occurrence of an adverse respiratory event under anesthesia. Secondary analysis included association with other known risk factors for adverse respiratory events.

RESULTS

625 patients were included in the analysis. The overall risk of a respiratory complication was 42.4% (265/625). In children without history of reactive airway disease, the risk of adverse respiratory events did not change during unhealthy air periods (102/253, 40.3%) as compared with healthy air periods (95/226, 42.0%) (relative risk 0.96 (0.77 to 1.19), p = 0.703). In children with history of reactive airway disease, the risk of adverse respiratory events increased from 36.8% (25/68) during healthy air periods to 55.1% (43/78) during periods with unhealthy air (1.50 (1.04 to 2.17), p = 0.032). The effect of air quality on adverse respiratory events was significantly modified by reactive airways disease status (1.56 (1.02 to 2.40), p = 0.041).

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric patients with underlying risk factors for respiratory complications under general anesthesia had a greater incidence of adverse respiratory events during periods of unhealthy air quality caused by wildfire smoke. In this vulnerable patient population, postponing elective anesthetics should be considered when air quality is poor.

Systems in Flames: Dynamic Coproduction of Social-Ecological Processes

Ecologists who study human-dominated places have adopted a social-ecological systems framework to recognize the coproduced links between ecological and social processes. However, many social scientists are wary of the way ecologists use the systems concept to represent such links. This wariness is sometimes due to a misunderstanding of the contemporary use of the systems concept in ecology. We aim to overcome this misunderstanding by discussing the contemporary systems concept using refinements from biophysical ecology. These refinements allow the systems concept to be used as a bridge rather than a barrier to social-ecological interaction. We then use recent examples of extraordinary fire to illustrate the usefulness and flexibility of the concept for understanding the dynamism of fire as a social-ecological interaction. The systems idea is a useful interdisciplinary abstraction that can be contextualized to account for societally important problems and dynamics.

A burning issue: Reviewing the socio-demographic and environmental justice aspects of the wildfire literature

Larger and more severe wildfires are becoming more frequent and impacting different communities and human settlements. Much of the scientific literature and media on wildfires has focused on area of ecosystems burned and numbers of structures destroyed. Equally unprecedented, but often less reported, are the increasing socioeconomic impacts different people and communities face from wildfires. Such information seems to indicate an emerging need to account for wildfire effects on peri-urban or wildland urban interface (WUI) areas, newer socio-demographic groups, and disadvantaged communities. To address this, we reviewed the socio-demographic dimensions of the wildfire literature using an environmental justice (EJ) lens. Specifically using a literature review of wildfires, human communities, social vulnerability, and homeowner mitigation, we conducted bibliometric and statistical analyses of 299 publications. The majority of publications were from the United States, followed by Canada and Australia, and most dealt with homeowner mitigation of risk, defensible space, and fuel treatments in WUI areas. Most publications studied the direct effects of wildfire related damage. Secondary impacts such as smoke, rural and urban communities, and the role of poverty and language were less studied. Based on a proposed wildfire-relevant EJ definition, the first EJ publication was in 2004, but the term was first used as a keyword in 2018. Studies in WUI communities statistically decreased the likelihood that a publication was EJ relevant. There was a significant relationship between EJ designation and inclusion of race/ethnicity and poverty variables in the study. Complexity across the various definitions of EJ suggest that it should not be used as a quantitative or binary metric; but as a lens to better understand socio-ecological impacts to diverse communities. We present a wildfire-relevant definition to potentially guide policy formulation and account for social and environmental justice issues.

Aerial Imagery-Based Building Footprint Detection with an Integrated Deep Learning Framework: Applications for Fine Scale Wildland–Urban Interface Mapping

Human encroachment into wildlands has resulted in a rapid increase in wildland–urban interface (WUI) expansion, exposing more buildings and population to wildfire risks. More frequent mapping of structures and WUIs at a finer spatial resolution is needed for WUI characterization and hazard assessment. However, most approaches rely on high-resolution commercial satellite data with a particular focus on urban areas. We developed a deep learning framework tailored for building footprint detection in the transitional wildland–urban areas. We leveraged meter scale aerial imageries publicly available from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) every 2 years. Our approach integrated Mobile-UNet and generative adversarial network. The deep learning models trained over three counties in California performed well in detecting building footprints across diverse landscapes, with an F1 score of 0.62, 0.67, and 0.75 in the interface WUI, intermix WUI, and rural regions, respectively. The bi-annual mapping captured both housing expansion and wildfire-caused building damages. The 30 m WUI maps generated from these finer footprints showed more granularity than the existing census tract-based maps and captured the transition of WUI dynamics well. More frequent updates of building footprint and improved WUI mapping will improve our understanding of WUI dynamics and provide guidance for adaptive strategies on community planning and wildfire hazard reduction.

Constructing ecological indices for urban environments using species distribution models

In an increasingly urbanized world, there is a need to study urban areas as their own class of ecosystems as well as assess the impacts of anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. However, collecting a sufficient number of species observations to estimate patterns of biodiversity in a city can be costly. Here we investigated the use of community science-based data on species occurrences, combined with species distribution models (SDMs), built using MaxEnt and remotely-sensed measures of the environment, to predict the distribution of a number of species across the urban environment of Los Angeles. By selecting species with the most accurate SDMs, and then summarizing these by class, we were able to produce two species richness models (SRMs) to predict biodiversity patterns for species in the class Aves and Magnoliopsida and how they respond to a variety of natural and anthropogenic environmental gradients.

We found that species considered native to Los Angeles tend to have significantly more accurate SDMs than their non-native counterparts. For all species considered in this study we found environmental variables describing anthropogenic activities, such as housing density and alterations to land cover, tend to be more influential than natural factors, such as terrain and proximity to freshwater, in shaping SDMs. Using a random forest model we found our SRMs could account for approximately 54% and 62% of the predicted variation in species richness for species in the classes Aves and Magnoliopsida respectively. Using community science-based species occurrences, SRMs can be used to model patterns of urban biodiversity and assess the roles of environmental factors in shaping them.

Polycyclic Aromatic Compounds in Rivers Dominated by Petrogenic Sources after a Boreal Megafire

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) threaten the health of aquatic ecosystems. In northeastern Alberta, Canada, decades of oil sands mining and upgrading activities have increased PAC delivery into freshwaters. This PAC pollution adds to natural inputs from river erosion of bitumen-bearing McMurray Formation outcrops and wildfire inputs. Quantifying these petrogenic and pyrogenic PAC inputs, which is key for understanding industrial impacts, remains a challenge. To distinguish petrogenic from pyrogenic inputs, we characterized river water PACs before and after the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, one of the largest natural disasters in Canadian history. Samples of wildfire ash and outcropping bitumen allow us to distinguish between these important PAC sources. River PAC concentrations ranged over multiple orders of magnitude (10s-10 000s ng/L). Petrogenic PACs dominated most of the postfire period with only short-term episodes of pyrogenic signatures in burned watersheds due to the wash-in of ash from the watershed. Wildfire PAC inputs during these events resulted in exceptional increases in concentrations that met or exceeded high (petrogenic) background concentrations, driven by the natural erosion of outcropping bitumen. Our dataset offers the first quantification of these two important PAC sources in this industrialized region and provides new insight into the impacts of increasing wildfire frequency and severity across the Boreal Forest.

The wildland-urban interface in the United States based on 125 million building locations

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the focus of many important land management issues, such as wildfire, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and human-wildlife conflicts. Wildfire is an especially critical issue, because housing growth in the WUI increases wildfire ignitions and the number of homes at risk. Identifying the WUI is important for assessing and mitigating impacts of development on wildlands and for protecting homes from natural hazards, but data on housing development for large areas are often coarse. We created new WUI maps for the conterminous United States based on 125 million individual building locations, offering higher spatial precision compared to existing maps based on U.S. census housing data. Building point locations were based on a building footprint data set from Microsoft. We classified WUI across the conterminous United States at 30-m resolution using a circular neighborhood mapping algorithm with a variable radius to determine thresholds of housing density and vegetation cover. We used our maps to (1) determine the total area of the WUI and number of buildings included, (2) assess the sensitivity of WUI area included and spatial pattern of WUI maps to choice of neighborhood size, (3) assess regional differences between building-based WUI maps and census-based WUI maps, and (4) determine how building location accuracy affected WUI map accuracy. Our building-based WUI maps identified 5.6%-18.8% of the conterminous United States as being in the WUI, with larger neighborhoods increasing WUI area but excluding isolated building clusters. Building-based maps identified more WUI area relative to census-based maps for all but the smallest neighborhoods, particularly in the north-central states, and large differences were attributable to high numbers of non-housing structures in rural areas. Overall WUI classification accuracy was 98.0%. For wildfire risk mapping and for general purposes, WUI maps based on the 500-m neighborhood represent the original Federal Register definition of the WUI; these maps include clusters of buildings in and adjacent to wildlands and exclude remote, isolated buildings. Our approach for mapping the WUI offers flexibility and high spatial detail and can be widely applied to take advantage of the growing availability of high-resolution building footprint data sets and classification methods.

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

Evaluation of Cairpol and Aeroqual Air Sensors in Biomass Burning Plumes

Cairpol and Aeroqual air quality sensors measuring CO, CO₂, NO₂, and other species were tested in fresh biomass burning plumes in field and laboratory environments. We evaluated sensors by comparing 1-minute sensor measurements to collocated reference instrument measurements. Sensors were evaluated based on the coefficient of determination (r ²) between the sensor and reference measurements, by the accuracy, collocated precision, root mean square error (RMSE), and other metrics. In general, CO and CO₂ sensors performed well (in terms of accuracy and r ² values) compared to NO₂ sensors. Cairpol CO and NO₂ sensors had better sensor-versus-sensor agreement (e.g., collocated precision) than Aeroqual CO and NO₂ sensors of the same species. Tests of other sensors (e.g., NH₃, H₂S, VOC, NMHC) provided more inconsistent results and need further study. Aeroqual NO₂ sensors had an apparent O₃ interference that was not observed in the Cairpol NO₂ sensors. Although the sensor accuracy lags that of reference-level monitors, with location-specific calibrations they have the potential to provide useful data about community air quality and personal exposure to smoke impacts.

Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake

SignificanceFire is an increasing climate-driven threat to humans. While human demography can strongly modulate fire ignition rates or fire suppression, changes in CO₂ released by fires feed back to climate. We show that human demography could reduce future fire activity, which would in turn attenuate global warming via an enhanced land carbon sink. This mitigation is strongest in a low-CO₂-emission world, corresponding to ∼5 to 10 y of global CO₂ emissions at today's levels by 2100. We highlight the strong role of human demography in global fire reduction and the potential for climate change mitigation by enhanced land carbon sequestration. We also note possible trade-offs, including loss of biodiversity in fire-dependent ecosystems and increases in severe fire events.

Contrasting the efficiency of landscape versus community protection fuel treatment strategies to reduce wildfire exposure and risk

We examined the financial efficiency and effectiveness of landscape versus community protection fuel treatments to reduce structure exposure and loss to wildfire on a large fire-prone area of central Idaho (USA). The study area contained 63,707 structures distributed in 20 rural communities and resorts, encompassing 13,804 km². We used simulation modeling to estimate expected structure loss based on burn probability and characteristics of the home ignition zone. We then designed three fuel management strategies that targeted treatments to: 1) the surrounding areas predicted to be the source of exposure to communities from large fires, 2) the home ignition zone, and 3) a combination of the landscape and home ignition zone. We evaluated each treatment scenario in terms of exposure and expected structure loss compared to a no-treatment scenario. The potential revenue from wood products was estimated for each scenario to assess the cost-efficiency. We found that the combined landscape and home ignition zone treatment scenario which treated 5.7% of the study area resulted in the highest overall reduction in predicted exposure (47.5%, 100 structures yr^-1) and predicted loss (69.1%, 57 structures yr^-1). Home ignition zone treatments provided the best predicted economic and per area treated performance where exposure and loss were reduced by one structure by treating 89 and 111 ha per year, respectively, with an annual cost of $33,645 and $73,672. Revenue from thinning was the highest for landscape fuel treatments and covered 16% of the required investment. This work highlighted economic and risk tradeoffs associated with alternative fuel treatment strategies to protect developed areas from large wildland fires.

A Burning Concern: Family Forest Owner Wildfire Concerns Across Regions, Scales, and Owner Characteristics

While there is a large literature on how individual homeowners perceive location-specific wildfire hazard, there is only one study specific to U.S. family forest owners. Using respondents from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service's National Woodland Owner Survey of family forest ownerships in the United States, we investigate the relationship between landowners' wildfire concerns and biophysical wildfire hazard across the contiguous United States. As a measure of long-term conditions for high intensity wildfire, we use the USDA Forest Service's Wildfire Hazard Potential Index as our key variable of interest. We test six ways of aggregating Wildfire Hazard Potential using 1-, 10-, and 100-mile (1.6, 16, and 160 km) radii buffers with linear and logistic specifications for hazard potential. Results show the log of Wildfire Hazard Potential is the best fit for modeling wildfire hazard concerns. Respondents in the western United States have a higher baseline level of concern but are not necessarily more sensitive to the hazard spectrum compared to respondents in the north. Respondents in the southern United States have a lower sensitivity to the hazard spectrum compared to respondents in the north and west. Using predicted probabilities at the means, we also compute regional prevalence ratios to compare the impact of biophysical wildfire hazard to the relative impact of other important variables. Various property and owner characteristics not related to biophysical hazard potential, such as emotion, receiving information about wildfire, and the presence of a house on the property are determinants of wildfire concern in some, but not all regions of the United States.

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches for Managing Fire in a Changing Climate

As the effects of climate change accumulate and intensify, resource managers juggle existing goals and new mandates to operationalize adaptation. Fire managers contend with the direct effects of climate change on resources in addition to climate-induced disruptions to fire regimes and subsequent ecosystem effects. In systems stressed by warming and drying, increased fire activity amplifies the pace of change and scale of severe disturbance events, heightening the urgency for management action. Fire managers are asked to integrate information on climate impacts with their professional expertise to determine how to achieve management objectives in a changing climate with altered fire regimes. This is a difficult task, and managers need support as they incorporate climate adaptation into planning and operations. We present a list of adaptation strategies and approaches specific to fire and climate based on co-produced knowledge from a science–management partnership and pilot-tested in a two-day workshop with natural resource managers and regional stakeholders. This “menu” is a flexible and useful tool for fire managers who need to connect the dots between fire ecology, climate science, adaptation intent, and management implementation. It was created and tested as part of an adaptation framework used widely across the United States and should be applicable and useful in many fire-prone forest ecosystems.

Mapping the wildland-urban interface in California using remote sensing data

Due to the mixed distribution of buildings and vegetation, wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas are characterized by complex fuel distributions and geographical environments. The behavior of wildfires occurring in the WUI often leads to severe hazards and significant damage to man-made structures. Therefore, WUI areas warrant more attention during the wildfire season. Due to the ever-changing dynamic nature of California’s population and housing, the update frequency and resolution of WUI maps that are currently used can no longer meet the needs and challenges of wildfire management and resource allocation for suppression and mitigation efforts. Recent developments in remote sensing technology and data analysis algorithms pose new opportunities for improving WUI mapping methods. WUI areas in California were directly mapped using building footprints extracted from remote sensing data by Microsoft along with the fuel vegetation cover from the LANDFIRE dataset in this study. To accommodate the new type of datasets, we developed a threshold criteria for mapping WUI based on statistical analysis, as opposed to using more ad-hoc criteria as used in previous mapping approaches. This method removes the reliance on census data in WUI mapping, and does not require the calculation of housing density. Moreover, this approach designates the adjacent areas of each building with large and dense parcels of vegetation as WUI, which can not only refine the scope and resolution of the WUI areas to individual buildings, but also avoids zoning issues and uncertainties in housing density calculation. Besides, the new method has the capability of updating the WUI map in real-time according to the operational needs. Therefore, this method is suitable for local governments to map local WUI areas, as well as formulating detailed wildfire emergency plans, evacuation routes, and management measures.

Mammals adjust diel activity across gradients of urbanization

Time is a fundamental component of ecological processes. How animal behavior changes over time has been explored through well-known ecological theories like niche partitioning and predator-prey dynamics. Yet, changes in animal behavior within the shorter 24-hour light-dark cycle have largely gone unstudied. Understanding if an animal can adjust their temporal activity to mitigate or adapt to environmental change has become a recent topic of discussion and is important for effective wildlife management and conservation. While spatial habitat is a fundamental consideration in wildlife management and conservation, temporal habitat is often ignored. We formulated a temporal resource selection model to quantify the diel behavior of eight mammal species across ten U.S. cities. We found high variability in diel activity patterns within and among species and species-specific correlations between diel activity and human population density, impervious land cover, available greenspace, vegetation cover, and mean daily temperature. We also found that some species may modulate temporal behaviors to manage both natural and anthropogenic risks. Our results highlight the complexity with which temporal activity patterns interact with local environmental characteristics, and suggest that urban mammals may use time along the 24-hour cycle to reduce risk, adapt, and therefore persist, and in some cases thrive, in human-dominated ecosystems.

A cyclical wildfire pattern as the outcome of a coupled human natural system

Over the past decades, wildfire has imposed a considerable cost on natural resources and human lives. In many regions, annual wildfire trends show puzzling oscillatory patterns with increasing amplitudes for burned areas over time. This paper aims to examine the potential causes of such patterns by developing and examining a dynamic simulation model that represents interconnected social and natural dynamics in a coupled system. We develop a generic dynamic model and, based on simulation results, postulate that the interconnection between human and natural subsystems is a source of the observed cyclical patterns in wildfires in which risk perception regulates activities that can result in more fire and development of vulnerable properties. Our simulation-based policy analysis points to a non-linear characteristic of the system, which rises due to the interconnections between the human side and the natural side of the system. This has a major policy implication: in contrast to studies that look for the most effective policy to contain wildfires, we show that a long-term solution is not a single action but is a combination of multiple actions that simultaneously target both human and natural sides of the system.

A Computationally Efficient Method for Updating Fuel Inputs for Wildfire Behavior Models Using Sentinel Imagery and Random Forest Classification

Disturbance events can happen at a temporal scale much faster than wildland fire fuel data updates. When used as input for wildland fire behavior models, outdated fuel datasets can contribute to misleading forecasts, which have implications for operational firefighting, mitigation, and wildland fire research. Remote sensing and machine learning methods can provide a solution for on-demand fuel estimation. Here, we show a proof of concept using C-band synthetic aperture radar and multispectral imagery, land cover classes, and tree mortality surveys to train a random forest classifier to estimate wildland fire fuel data in the East Troublesome Fire (Colorado) domain. The algorithm classified over 80% of the test dataset correctly, and the resulting wildland fire fuel data was used to simulate the East Troublesome Fire using the coupled atmosphere—wildland fire behavior model, WRF-Fire. The simulation using the modified fuel inputs, where 43% of original fuels are replaced with fuels representing dead trees, improved the burn area forecast by 38%. This study demonstrates the need for up-to-date fuel maps available in real time to provide accurate prediction of wildland fire spread, and outlines the methodology based on high-resolution satellite observations and machine learning that can accomplish this task.

Rapid Growth of Large Forest Fires Drives the Exponential Response of Annual Forest-Fire Area to Aridity in the Western United States

Annual forest area burned (AFAB) in the western United States (US) has increased as a positive exponential function of rising aridity in recent decades. This non-linear response has important implications for AFAB in a changing climate, yet the cause of the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship has not been given rigorous attention. We investigated the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship in western US forests using a new 1984-2019 database of fire events and 2001-2020 satellite-based records of daily fire growth. While forest-fire frequency and duration grow linearly with aridity, the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship results from the exponential growth rates of individual fires. Larger fires generally have more potential for growth due to more extensive firelines. Thus, forces that promote fire growth, such as aridification, have more potent effects on larger fires. As aridity increases linearly, the potential for growth of large fires accelerates, leading to exponential increases in AFAB.

A quantitative wildfire risk assessment using a modular approach of geostatistical clustering and regionally distinct valuations of assets—A case study in Oregon

The intensity and scale of wildfires has increased throughout the Pacific Northwest in recent decades, especially within the last decade, destroying vast amounts of valuable resources and assets. This trend is predicted to remain or even magnify due climate change, growing population, increased housing density. Furthermore, the associated stress of prolonged droughts and change in land cover/land use puts more population at risk. We present results of a multi-phase Extension Fire Program Initiative combining fire model results based on worst-case meteorological conditions recorded at 50 weather stations across Oregon with spatially distinct valuations of resources and assets based on regional ecological and socio-economic conditions. Our study focuses on six different Fire Service Areas covering the state of Oregon. We used a geostatistical approach to find weather stations that provide worst-case meteorological input data on record for representative sub-domains. The results provide regionally distinct assessments of potential value loss by wildfire and show that, depending on the region, 12% to 52% of the highest relative risk areas are on private land. This underscores the need to unite strategies and efforts on the landscape scale by including different landowners, managers, and stakeholders of public land and private land efficiently address wildfire damage protection and mitigation. Our risk assessments closely agreed with risks identified during landscape-scale ground projects.

MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention

Countries unaccustomed to wildfires are currently experiencing wildfire as a new climate-change reality. Understanding how fire ignition and propagation are correlated with temperature, orography, humidity, wind, and the mixture and age of individual plants must be considered when designing prevention strategies. While wildfire prevention focuses on fire ignition avoidance, firefighting success depends on early ignition detection, meaning that, in either case, ignition plays a major role. The current case study considered three Portuguese municipalities that annually observe frequent fire ignitions (Tomar, Ourém, and Ferreira do Zêzere) as the testing ground for the Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk (MDIR) strategy, thus evaluating the efficiency of MDIR and the efficacy of the variables used. This methodology uses geographic information systems technology sustained by open-source satellite imagery, along with the Habitat Risk Assessment model from the InVEST software package, as drivers for the MDIR application. The MDIR approach grants frequent update capabilities and fully open-sourced high ignition risk area identification, producing monthly ignition risk maps. The advantage of using this method is the ease of adaptation to any current monitoring strategy, awarding further efficiency and efficacy in reducing ignitions. The approach delivered adequate results in estimating ignitions for the three Portuguese municipalities, achieving, for several months, prediction accuracy percentages of over 70%. For the studied area, MDIR clearly identifies areas of high ignition risk and delivers an average of 62% success in predicting ignitions, thus showing potential for analyzing the impact of policy implementation and monitoring through the strategy design.