Psychosis prediction: stratification of risk estimation with information-processing and premorbid functioning variables

The Role of Trauma and Stressful Life Events among Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Review

The experience of childhood trauma (CT) and stressful life events (SLEs) is associated with subsequent development of a variety of mental health conditions, including psychotic illness. Recent research identifying adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis allows for prospective evaluation of the impact of trauma and adverse life events on psychosis onset and other outcomes, addressing etiological questions that cannot be answered in studies of fully psychotic or non-clinical populations. This article provides a comprehensive review of the current emerging literature on trauma and adverse life events in the CHR population. Up to 80% of CHR youth endorse a lifetime history of childhood traumatic events and victimization (e.g., bullying). Several studies have shown that the experience of CT predicts psychosis onset among CHR individuals, while the literature on the influence of recent SLEs (e.g., death of a loved one) remains inconclusive. Multiple models have been proposed to explain the link between trauma and psychosis, including the stress-vulnerability and stress-sensitivity hypotheses, with emphases on both cognitive processes and neurobiological mechanisms (e.g., the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis). Despite the preponderance of CHR individuals who endorse either CT or SLEs, no clinical trials have been conducted evaluating interventions for trauma in CHR youth to date. Furthermore, the current process of formal identification and assessment of trauma, SLEs, and their impact on CHR youth is inconsistent in research and clinical practice. Recommendations for improving trauma assessment, treatment, and future research directions in the CHR field are provided.

Functional Capacity Assessed by the Map Task in Individuals at Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis

OBJECTIVES

Recent studies have recognized that signs of functional disability in schizophrenia are evident in early phases of the disorder, and, as a result, can potentially serve as vulnerability markers of future illness. However, functional measures in the psychosis prodrome have focused exclusively on real-world achievements, rather than on the skills required to carry-out a particular real-world function (ie, capacity). Despite growing evidence that diminished capacity is critical to the etiology of the established disorder, virtually no attention has been directed towards assessing functional capacity in the pre-illness stages. In the present study, we introduce the Map task, a measure to assess functional capacity in adolescent and young-adult high-risk populations.

METHODS

The Map task was administered to 609 subjects at Clinical High-Risk (CHR) for psychosis and 242 Healthy Controls (HCs) participating in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2). Subjects were required to efficiently complete a set of specified errands in a fictional town.

RESULTS

CHR participants showed large impairments across major indices of the Map task, relative to the HCs. Most importantly, poor performance on the Map task significantly predicted conversion to psychosis, even after adjusting for age, IQ, clinical state, and other potential confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, the Map task is one of the first laboratory-based measures to assess functional capacity in high-risk populations. Functional capacity deficits prior to the onset of psychosis may reflect a basic mechanism that underlies risk for psychosis. Early intervention targeting this domain may help to offset risk and independently improve long-term outcome.

Trauma and the psychosis spectrum: A review of symptom specificity and explanatory mechanisms

Traumatic life events have been robustly associated with various psychosis outcomes, including increased risk of psychotic disorders, the prodrome of psychosis, and dimensional measures of psychotic symptoms, such as attenuated positive psychotic symptoms. However, trauma exposure has been linked to various mental disorders; therefore, the specificity of trauma exposure to psychosis remains unclear. This review focuses on two understudied areas of the trauma and psychosis literature: 1) the specificity between trauma and psychosis in relation to other disorders that often result post-trauma, and 2) proposed mechanisms that uniquely link trauma to psychosis. We begin by discussing the underlying connection between trauma exposure and the entire psychosis spectrum with a focus on the influence of trauma type and specific psychotic symptoms. We then consider how the principles of multifinality and equifinality can be useful in elucidating the trauma-psychosis relationship versus the trauma-other disorder relationship. Next, we discuss several cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms that might uniquely account for the association between trauma and psychosis, as well as the role of gender. Lastly, we review important methodological issues that complicate the research on trauma and psychosis, ending with clinical implications for the field.

Development of a stage-dependent prognostic model to predict psychosis in ultra-high-risk patients seeking treatment for co-morbid psychiatric disorders

BACKGROUND

Current ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria appear insufficient to predict imminent onset of first-episode psychosis, as a meta-analysis showed that about 20% of patients have a psychotic outcome after 2 years. Therefore, we aimed to develop a stage-dependent predictive model in UHR individuals who were seeking help for co-morbid disorders.

METHOD

Baseline data on symptomatology, and environmental and psychological factors of 185 UHR patients (aged 14-35 years) participating in the Dutch Early Detection and Intervention Evaluation study were analysed with Cox proportional hazard analyses.

RESULTS

At 18 months, the overall transition rate was 17.3%. The final predictor model included five variables: observed blunted affect [hazard ratio (HR) 3.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.56-7.35, p < 0.001], subjective complaints of impaired motor function (HR 5.88, 95% CI 1.21-6.10, p = 0.02), beliefs about social marginalization (HR 2.76, 95% CI 1.14-6.72, p = 0.03), decline in social functioning (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.17, p = 0.03), and distress associated with suspiciousness (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03, p = 0.01). The positive predictive value of the model was 80.0%. The resulting prognostic index stratified the general risk into three risk classes with significantly different survival curves. In the highest risk class, transition to psychosis emerged on average ⩾8 months earlier than in the lowest risk class.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicting a first-episode psychosis in help-seeking UHR patients was improved using a stage-dependent prognostic model including negative psychotic symptoms (observed flattened affect, subjective impaired motor functioning), impaired social functioning and distress associated with suspiciousness. Treatment intensity may be stratified and personalized using the risk stratification.

Early interventions in risk groups for schizophrenia: what are we waiting for?

Intervention strategies in adolescents at ultra high-risk (UHR) for psychosis are promising for reducing conversion to overt illness, but have only limited impact on functional outcome. Recent studies suggest that cognition does not further decline during the UHR stage. As social and cognitive impairments typically develop before the first psychotic episode and even years before the UHR stage, prevention should also start much earlier in the groups at risk for schizophrenia and other psychiatric disorders. Early intervention strategies could aim to improve stress resilience, optimize brain maturation, and prevent or alleviate adverse environmental circumstances. These strategies should urgently be tested for efficacy: the prevalence of ~1% implies that yearly ~22 in every 100,000 people develop overt symptoms of this illness, despite the fact that for many of them—e.g., children with an affected first-degree family member or carriers of specific genetic variants—increased risk was already identifiable early in life. Our current ability to recognize several risk groups at an early age not only provides an opportunity, but also implies a clinical imperative to act. Time is pressing to investigate preventive interventions in high-risk children to mitigate or prevent the development of schizophrenia and related psychiatric disorders.

Progress and Future Directions in Research on the Psychosis Prodrome: A Review for Clinicians

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

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ABSTRACT

The psychosis prodrome, or period of clinical and functional decline leading up to acute psychosis, offers a unique opportunity for identifying mechanisms of psychosis onset and for testing early-intervention strategies. We summarize major findings and emerging directions in prodromal research and provide recommendations for clinicians working with individuals suspected to be at high risk for psychosis. The past two decades of research have led to three major advances. First, tools and criteria have been developed that can reliably identify imminent risk for a psychotic disorder. Second, longitudinal clinical and psychobiological data from large multisite studies are strengthening individual risk assessment and offering insights into potential mechanisms of illness onset. Third, psychosocial and pharmacological interventions are demonstrating promise for delaying or preventing the onset of psychosis in help-seeking, high-risk individuals. The dynamic psychobiological processes implicated in both risk and onset of psychosis, including altered gene expression, cognitive dysfunction, inflammation, gray and white matter brain changes, and vulnerability-stress interactions suggest a wide range of potential treatment targets and strategies. The expansion of resources devoted to early intervention and prodromal research worldwide raises hope for investigating them. Future directions include identifying psychosis-specific risk and resilience factors in children, adolescents, and non-help-seeking community samples, improving study designs to test hypothesized mechanisms of change, and intervening with strategies that, in order to improve functional outcomes, better engage youth, address their environmental contexts, and focus on evidence-based neurodevelopmental targets. Prospective research on putatively prodromal samples has the potential to substantially reshape our understanding of mental illness and our efforts to combat it.

Longitudinal study of premorbid adjustment in 22q11.2 deletion (velocardiofacial) syndrome and association with psychosis

Velocardiofacial syndrome, also known as 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS), is associated with an increased risk of major psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia. The emergence of psychotic symptoms in individuals with schizophrenia in the general population is often preceded by a premorbid period of poor or worsening social and/or academic functioning. Our current study evaluated premorbid adjustment (via the Cannon-Spoor Premorbid Adjustment Scale [PAS]) and psychotic symptoms (via the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms and the Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children-Present and Lifetime Version) in youth with 22q11DS (N = 96), unaffected siblings (N = 40), and community controls (N = 50). The PAS scores indicated greater maladjustment during all developmental periods in individuals with 22q11DS compared to the controls. Many participants with 22q11DS had chronically poor (n = 33) or deteriorating (n = 6) PAS scores. In 22q11DS, chronically poor PAS trajectories and poor childhood and early adolescence academic domain and total PAS scores significantly increased the risk of prodromal symptoms or overt psychosis. Taking into account the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) genotype, the best predictor of (prodromal) psychosis was the early adolescence academic domain score, which yielded higher sensitivity and specificity in the subgroup of youth with 22q11DS and the high-activity (valine) allele. PAS scores may help identify individuals at higher risk for psychosis.

The early identification of psychosis: can lessons be learnt from cardiac stress testing?

Psychotic disorders including schizophrenia are amongst the most debilitating psychiatric disorders. There is an urgent need to develop methods to identify individuals at risk with greater precision and as early as possible. At present, a prerequisite for a diagnosis of schizophrenia is the occurrence of a psychotic episode. Therefore, attempting to detect schizophrenia on the basis of psychosis is analogous to diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) after the occurrence of a myocardial infarction (MI). The introduction of cardiac stress testing (CST) has revolutionized the detection of CAD and the prevention and management of angina and MI. In this paper, we attempt to apply lessons learnt from CST to the early detection of psychosis by proposing the development of an analogous psychosis stress test. We discuss in detail the various parameters of a proposed psychosis stress test including the choice of a suitable psychological or psychopharmacological "stressor," target population, outcome measures, safety of the approach, and the necessary evolution of test to become clinically informative. The history of evolution of CST may guide the development of a similar approach for the detection and management of psychotic disorders. The initial development of a test to unmask latent risk for schizophrenia will require the selection of a suitable and safe stimulus and the development of outcome measures as a prelude to testing in populations with a range of risk to determine predictive value. The use of CST in CAD offers the intriguing possibility that a similar approach may be applied to the detection and management of schizophrenia.

Patterns of premorbid functioning in individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis

In schizophrenia, four typical patterns of premorbid functioning have been observed: stable-good, stable-intermediate, poor-deteriorating and deteriorating. However, it is unknown whether similar patterns exist in those who are at clinical high risk (CHR) of psychosis. The aim of this study was to examine patterns of premorbid functioning in a large sample of individuals at CHR of psychosis and its association with symptoms, functioning, and conversion to psychosis. One-hundred sixty people at CHR of psychosis were assessed on premorbid functioning using the Premorbid Adjustment Scale. Poorer premorbid functioning was significantly correlated with worse negative symptom severity and lower social functioning. Cluster analysis was used to identify patterns of premorbid functioning. Results indicated three patterns of premorbid functioning in our CHR sample: stable-intermediate, stable-good, and deteriorating. The deteriorating group had more severe disorganization, worse negative symptoms, and poorer social functioning than the other groups. Participants who made the conversion to psychosis had significantly poorer premorbid functioning during adolescence compared to those who did not convert. These results suggest that those at a clinical high risk for psychosis display similar patterns in premorbid functioning as have been observed in those with a psychotic illness and that poor premorbid functioning may be a predictor of psychosis.

Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a chronic psychiatric disorder with a heterogeneous genetic and neurobiological background that influences early brain development, and is expressed as a combination of psychotic symptoms - such as hallucinations, delusions and disorganization - and motivational and cognitive dysfunctions. The mean lifetime prevalence of the disorder is just below 1%, but large regional differences in prevalence rates are evident owing to disparities in urbanicity and patterns of immigration. Although gross brain pathology is not a characteristic of schizophrenia, the disorder involves subtle pathological changes in specific neural cell populations and in cell-cell communication. Schizophrenia, as a cognitive and behavioural disorder, is ultimately about how the brain processes information. Indeed, neuroimaging studies have shown that information processing is functionally abnormal in patients with first-episode and chronic schizophrenia. Although pharmacological treatments for schizophrenia can relieve psychotic symptoms, such drugs generally do not lead to substantial improvements in social, cognitive and occupational functioning. Psychosocial interventions such as cognitive-behavioural therapy, cognitive remediation and supported education and employment have added treatment value, but are inconsistently applied. Given that schizophrenia starts many years before a diagnosis is typically made, the identification of individuals at risk and those in the early phases of the disorder, and the exploration of preventive approaches are crucial.

Social Cognition in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis: A Meta-Analysis

Objective

Treatment in the ultra-high risk stage for a psychotic episode is critical to the course of symptoms. Markers for the development of psychosis have been studied, to optimize the detection of people at risk of psychosis. One possible marker for the transition to psychosis is social cognition. To estimate effect sizes for social cognition based on a quantitative integration of the published evidence, we conducted a meta-analysis of social cognitive performance in people at ultra high risk (UHR).

Methods

A literature search (1970-July 2015) was performed in PubMed, PsychINFO, Medline, Embase, and ISI Web of Science, using the search terms ‘social cognition’, ‘theory of mind’, ‘emotion recognition’, ‘attributional style’, ‘social knowledge’, ‘social perception’, ‘empathy’, ‘at risk mental state’, ‘clinical high risk’, ‘psychosis prodrome’, and ‘ultra high risk’. The pooled effect size (Cohen’s D) and the effect sizes for each domain of social cognition were calculated. A random effects model with 95% confidence intervals was used.

Results

Seventeen studies were included in the analysis. The overall significant effect was of medium magnitude (d = 0.52, 95% Cl = 0.38–0.65). No moderator effects were found for age, gender and sample size. Sub-analyses demonstrated that individuals in the UHR phase show significant moderate deficits in affect recognition and affect discrimination in faces as well as in voices and in verbal Theory of Mind (TOM). Due to an insufficient amount of studies, we did not calculate an effect size for attributional bias and social perception/ knowledge. A majority of studies did not find a correlation between social cognition deficits and transition to psychosis, which may suggest that social cognition in general is not a useful marker for the development of psychosis. However some studies suggest the possible predictive value of verbal TOM and the recognition of specific emotions in faces for the transition into psychosis. More research is needed on these subjects.

Conclusion

The published literature indicates consistent general impairments in social cognition in people in the UHR phase, but only very specific impairments seem to predict transition to psychosis.

Psychosis Prevention: A Modified Clinical High Risk Perspective From the Recognition and Prevention (RAP) Program

OBJECTIVE

Early intervention and prevention of psychosis remain a major challenge. Prediction would be greatly advanced with improved ability to identify individuals at true risk, which, at present, is moderate at best. The authors tested a modified strategy to improve prediction by selecting a more homogeneous high-risk sample (attenuated positive symptom criteria only, age range of mid-teens to early 20s) than is currently standard, combined with a systematic selection of neurodevelopmental deficits.

METHOD

A sample of 101 treatment-seeking adolescents (mean age, 15.9 years) at clinical high risk for psychosis were followed clinically for up to 5 years (mean follow-up time, 3.0 years, SD=1.6). Adolescents were included only if they exhibited one or more attenuated positive symptoms at moderate to severe, but not psychotic, severity levels. Cox regression was used to derive a risk index.

RESULTS

The overall conversion rate to psychosis was 28.3%. The final predictor model, with a positive predictive validity of 81.8%, consisted of four variables: disorganized communication, suspiciousness, verbal memory deficits, and decline in social functioning during follow-up. Significant effects also suggest narrowing the risk age range to 15-22 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical high risk criteria that emphasize disorganized communication and suspiciousness while also including compromised verbal memory and declining social functioning have the potential to improve predictive accuracy compared with attenuated positive symptoms used alone. On the resulting risk index (a weighted combination of the predictors), low scores were interpreted as signifying minimal risk, with little treatment necessary, high scores as suggesting aggressive intervention, and intermediate scores, although less informative, as supporting psychosocial treatment.

Emotion recognition deficits as predictors of transition in individuals at clinical high risk for schizophrenia: a neurodevelopmental perspective

BACKGROUND

Schizophrenia is characterized by profound and disabling deficits in the ability to recognize emotion in facial expression and tone of voice. Although these deficits are well documented in established schizophrenia using recently validated tasks, their predictive utility in at-risk populations has not been formally evaluated.

METHOD

The Penn Emotion Recognition and Discrimination tasks, and recently developed measures of auditory emotion recognition, were administered to 49 clinical high-risk subjects prospectively followed for 2 years for schizophrenia outcome, and 31 healthy controls, and a developmental cohort of 43 individuals aged 7-26 years. Deficit in emotion recognition in at-risk subjects was compared with deficit in established schizophrenia, and with normal neurocognitive growth curves from childhood to early adulthood.

RESULTS

Deficits in emotion recognition significantly distinguished at-risk patients who transitioned to schizophrenia. By contrast, more general neurocognitive measures, such as attention vigilance or processing speed, were non-predictive. The best classification model for schizophrenia onset included both face emotion processing and negative symptoms, with accuracy of 96%, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.99. In a parallel developmental study, emotion recognition abilities were found to reach maturity prior to traditional age of risk for schizophrenia, suggesting they may serve as objective markers of early developmental insult.

CONCLUSIONS

Profound deficits in emotion recognition exist in at-risk patients prior to schizophrenia onset. They may serve as an index of early developmental insult, and represent an effective target for early identification and remediation. Future studies investigating emotion recognition deficits at both mechanistic and predictive levels are strongly encouraged.

Detection and treatment of at-risk mental state for developing a first psychosis: making up the balance

The at-risk mental state (ARMS) has been substantially researched and used as the basis for new clinical settings and strategies over the past two decades. However, it has also caused controversy and intense debate. In this Review, we assess available evidence and propose future directions. Accumulating research suggests that a blend of clinical staging and profiling, which naturally incorporates ARMS, might be a better guide for treatment of patients in different stages of psychiatric illness than the categorical DSM and ICD systems. Furthermore, clinical staging, with its emphasis on balancing risks and benefits, could help to prevent premature treatment or overtreatment with psychotropic drugs. Meta-analyses and reviews show that treatment of ARMS leads to a significant reduction in transition rate to a first psychosis. The debate about stigma associated with ARMS is based on scarce published work. The few studies that have been done suggest that stigma (including self-stigma) arises largely from negative societal views on psychiatric disorders and, depending on the setting and approach, not from engagement in treatment for ARMS per se. The evidence base suggests that definition of ARMS is an important step in implementation of clinical staging and profiling in psychiatry. However, more research across traditional diagnostic boundaries is needed to refine these clinical phenotypes and link them to biomarkers with the goal of personalised stepwise care. Health-system reform is overdue and a parallel process to support this approach is needed, which is similar to how physical forms of non-communicable disease are treated.

Auditory P300 as a predictor of short-term prognosis in subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate whether P300 could predict the short-term prognosis of subjects at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis who do not convert to psychotic disorder (non-converters).

METHOD

CHR subjects were examined with auditory P300 at baseline, and their clinical state was regularly assessed up to 2 years. 45 CHR non-converters were divided into remitter and non-remitter groups. Repeated-measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to compare baseline P300 between the two groups. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify factors predicting symptomatic or functional improvement in CHR subjects during the follow-up period.

RESULTS

There were no group differences in P300 amplitude or latency between CHR remitters and non-remitters. In the multiple regression analysis, P300 amplitude at Pz (β=0.206, 95% confidence interval [95CI]=0.035 to 0.567, p=0.028) significantly predicted later amelioration of the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS) negative symptoms. Improvement in SOPS general symptoms was significantly predicted by P300 amplitude at Pz (β=0.255, 95CI=0.065 to 0.455, p=0.010) and mood stabilizer use (β=0.199, 95CI=0.081 to 4.154, p=0.042).

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that P300 may be a possible predictor of improvement in negative and general symptoms in CHR non-converters. Our findings support the recommendation that a broader concept of assessment guidelines is needed to forecast clinical outcome and provide appropriate interventions for CHR non-converters.

Forecasting psychosis by event-related potentials-systematic review and specific meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prediction and prevention of psychosis have become major research topics. Clinical approaches warrant objective biological parameters to enhance validity in prediction of psychosis onset. In this regard, event-related potentials (ERPs) have been identified as promising tools for improving psychosis prediction.

METHODS

Herein, the focus is on sensory gating, mismatch negativity (MMN) and P300, thereby discussing which parameters allow for a timely and valid detection of future converters to psychosis. In a first step, we systematically reviewed the studies that resulted from a search of the MEDLINE database. In a second step, we performed a meta-analysis of those investigations reporting transitions that statistically compared ERPs in converting versus nonconverting subjects.

RESULTS

Sensory gating, MMN, and P300 have been demonstrated to be impaired in subjects clinically at risk of developing a psychotic disorder. In the meta-analysis, duration MMN achieved the highest effect size measures.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, MMN studies have produced the most convincing results until now, including independent replication of the predictive validity. However, a synopsis of the literature revealed a relative paucity of ERP studies addressing the psychosis risk state. Considering the high clinical relevance of valid psychosis prediction, future research should question for the most informative paradigms and should allow for meta-analytic evaluation with regard to specificity and sensitivity of the most appropriate parameters.

The utility of P300 as a schizophrenia endophenotype and predictive biomarker: clinical and socio-demographic modulators in COGS-2

Reduced auditory P300 amplitude is a robust schizophrenia deficit exhibiting the qualities of a viable genetic endophenotype. These include heritability, test-retest reliability, and trait-like stability. Recent evidence suggests that P300 may also serve as a predictive biomarker for transition to psychosis during the schizophrenia prodrome. Historically, the utility of the P300 has been limited by its clinical nonspecificity, cross-site measurement variability, and required EEG expertise. The Consortium on the Genetics of Schizophrenia (COGS-2) study provided an opportunity to examine the consistency of the measure across multiple sites with varying degrees of EEG experience, and to identify important modulating factors that contribute to measurement variability. Auditory P300 was acquired from 649 controls and 587 patients at 5 sites. An overall patient deficit was observed with effect size 0.62. Each site independently observed a significant patient deficit, but site differences also existed. In patients, site differences reflected clinical differences in positive symptomatology and functional capacity. In controls, site differences reflected differences in racial stratification, smoking and substance use history. These factors differentially suppressed the P300 response, but only in control subjects. This led to an attenuated patient-control difference among smokers and among African Americans with history of substance use. These findings indicate that the P300 can be adequately assessed quantitatively, across sites, without substantial EEG expertise. Measurements are suitable for both genetic endophenotype analyses and studies of psychosis risk and conversion. However, careful attention must be given to selection of appropriate comparison samples to avoid misleading false negative results.

EPA guidance on the early detection of clinical high risk states of psychoses

The aim of this guidance paper of the European Psychiatric Association is to provide evidence-based recommendations on the early detection of a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis in patients with mental problems. To this aim, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting on conversion rates to psychosis in non-overlapping samples meeting any at least any one of the main CHR criteria: ultra-high risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms criteria. Further, effects of potential moderators (different UHR criteria definitions, single UHR criteria and age) on conversion rates were examined. Conversion rates in the identified 42 samples with altogether more than 4000 CHR patients who had mainly been identified by UHR criteria and/or the basic symptom criterion 'cognitive disturbances' (COGDIS) showed considerable heterogeneity. While UHR criteria and COGDIS were related to similar conversion rates until 2-year follow-up, conversion rates of COGDIS were significantly higher thereafter. Differences in onset and frequency requirements of symptomatic UHR criteria or in their different consideration of functional decline, substance use and co-morbidity did not seem to impact on conversion rates. The 'genetic risk and functional decline' UHR criterion was rarely met and only showed an insignificant pooled sample effect. However, age significantly affected UHR conversion rates with lower rates in children and adolescents. Although more research into potential sources of heterogeneity in conversion rates is needed to facilitate improvement of CHR criteria, six evidence-based recommendations for an early detection of psychosis were developed as a basis for the EPA guidance on early intervention in CHR states.

Qualitative and quantitative aspects of information processing in first psychosis: latent class analyses in patients, at-risk subjects, and controls

We aimed to determine profiles of information processing deficits in the pathway to first psychosis. Sixty-one subjects at ultrahigh risk (UHR) for psychosis were assessed, of whom 18 converted to a first episode of psychosis (FEP) within the follow-up period. Additionally, 47 FEP and 30 control subjects were included. Using 10 neurophysiological parameters associated with information processing, latent class analyses yielded three classes at baseline. Class membership was related to group status. Within the UHR sample, two classes were found. Transition to psychosis was nominally associated with class membership. Neurophysiological profiles were unstable over time, but associations between specific neurophysiological components at baseline and follow-up were found. We conclude that certain constellations of neurophysiological variables aid in the differentiation between controls and patients in the prodrome and after first psychosis.

The 4th Schizophrenia International Research Society Conference, 5-9 April 2014, Florence, Italy: a summary of topics and trends

The 4th Schizophrenia International Research Society Conference was held in Florence, Italy, April 5-9, 2014 and this year had as its emphasis, "Fostering Collaboration in Schizophrenia Research". Student travel awardees served as rapporteurs for each oral session, summarized the important contributions of each session and then each report was integrated into a final summary of data discussed at the entire conference by topic. It is hoped that by combining data from different presentations, patterns of interest will emerge and thus lead to new progress for the future. In addition, the following report provides an overview of the conference for those who were present, but could not participate in all sessions, and those who did not have the opportunity to attend, but who would be interested in an update on current investigations ongoing in the field of schizophrenia research.

A stratified model for psychosis prediction in clinical practice

OBJECTIVE

Impaired cognition is an important dimension in psychosis and its at-risk states. Research on the value of impaired cognition for psychosis prediction in at-risk samples, however, mainly relies on study-specific sample means of neurocognitive tests, which unlike widely available general test norms are difficult to translate into clinical practice. The aim of this study was to explore the combined predictive value of at-risk criteria and neurocognitive deficits according to test norms with a risk stratification approach.

METHOD

Potential predictors of psychosis (neurocognitive deficits and at-risk criteria) over 24 months were investigated in 97 at-risk patients.

RESULTS

The final prediction model included (1) at-risk criteria (attenuated psychotic symptoms plus subjective cognitive disturbances) and (2) a processing speed deficit (digit symbol test). The model was stratified into 4 risk classes with hazard rates between 0.0 (both predictors absent) and 1.29 (both predictors present).

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of a processing speed deficit and at-risk criteria provides an optimized stratified risk assessment. Based on neurocognitive test norms, the validity of our proposed 3 risk classes could easily be examined in independent at-risk samples and, pending positive validation results, our approach could easily be applied in clinical practice in the future.

[Prediction of psychoses]

BACKGROUND

The worldwide established early detection and prevention centers for psychosis follow the modern program of predictive, preventive and personalized medicine.

OBJECTIVES

If primary prevention is to succeed, the individual risk of the disease has to be estimated correctly and the psychosis onset has to be accurately predicted. Accordingly, this article presents the current possibilities for prediction.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An overview on the recent prediction analyses in clinical high risk for psychosis research is provided.

RESULTS

The previously identified high-risk criteria achieve a considerable predictive power, which can be further enhanced by their combined use as well as other strategies of risk enrichment and risk stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical prediction already allows risk-adapted prevention measures and is currently being enhanced even further by additional biological brain diagnostics.