The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species

Genetic footprints of a rapid and large-scale range expansion: the case of cyclic common vole in Spain

In the Anthropocene, many species are rapidly shifting their ranges in response to human-driven habitat modifications. Studying patterns and genetic signatures of range shifts helps to understand how species cope with environmental disturbances and predict future shifts in the face of global environmental change. We investigated the genetic signature of a contemporary wide-range expansion observed in the Iberian common vole Microtus arvalis asturianus shortly after a colonization event. We used mtDNA and microsatellite data to investigate patterns of genetic diversity, structure, demography, and gene flow across 57 localities covering the historical range of the species and the newly colonized area. The results showed a genetic footprint more compatible with a true range expansion (i.e. the colonization of previously unoccupied areas), than with a model of "colonization from within" (i.e. local expansions from small, unnoticed populations). Genetic diversity measures indicated that the source population was likely located at the NE of the historical range, with a declining gradient of genetic diversity towards the more recently invaded areas. At the expansion front, we observed the greatest gene flow and smallest pairwise differences between nearby localities. Both natural landscape features (rivers) and recent anthropogenic barriers (roads, railways) explained a large proportion of genetic variance among populations and had a significant impact on the colonization pathways used by voles.

Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes

No environment is constant over time, and environmental fluctuations impact the outcome of evolutionary dynamics. Survival of a population not adapted to some environmental conditions is threatened unless, for example, a mutation rescues it, an eco-evolutionary process termed evolutionary rescue. We here investigate evolutionary rescue in an environment that fluctuates between a favourable state, in which the population grows, and a harsh state, in which the population declines. We develop a stochastic model that includes both population dynamics and genetics. We derive analytical predictions for the mean extinction time of a non-adapted population given that it is not rescued, the probability of rescue by a mutation, and the mean appearance time of a rescue mutant, which we validate using numerical simulations. We find that stochastic environmental fluctuations, resulting in quasi-periodic environmental changes, accelerate extinction and hinder evolutionary rescue compared with deterministic environmental fluctuations, resulting in periodic environmental changes. We demonstrate that high equilibrium population sizes and per capita growth rates maximize the chances of evolutionary rescue. We show that an imperfectly harsh environment, which does not fully prevent births but makes the death rate to birth rate ratio much greater than unity, has almost the same rescue probability as a perfectly harsh environment, which fully prevents births. Finally, we put our results in the context of antimicrobial resistance and conservation biology.

Population-Based Evidence of Climate Change Adaptation in an Endangered Plant Endemic to a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate change is expected to impact both the population structure and geographic distribution of plants. Species distribution models are widely used to assess range shifts and the vulnerability of plants to climate change. Despite the abundance of modeling studies, little is known about how existing populations respond to climate change. We investigated the demographic structure and vulnerability to climate change in Anemone moorei, a sub-shrub with a highly restricted distribution in a biodiversity hotspot. We improved the distribution knowledge through intensive field work. We conducted a census of stem length as a proxy for age for all known populations. We used ensemble forecasting to project distributions considering 10 future climate scenarios and developed a novel climate change vulnerability index for the species' distribution. We found that the mean stem length decreases and the proportion of young plants increases, while the size of fruiting plants decreases as A. moorei faces greater climate change vulnerability. We interpret these results as evidence for the onset of recent adaptation to climate change, consisting of reduced adult longevity and an earlier onset of reproduction. As a result of these changes, the proportion of juveniles in the population increases.

Biodiversity protection against anthropogenic climate change: Conservation prioritization of Castanea sativa in the South Caucasus based on genetic and ecological metrics

The climate drives species distribution and genetic diversity; the latter defines the adaptability of populations and species. The ongoing climate crisis induces tree decline in many regions, compromising the mitigation potential of forests. Scientific-based strategies for prioritizing forest tree populations are critical to managing the impact of climate change. Identifying future climate refugia, which are locations naturally buffering the negative impact of climate change, may facilitate local conservation. In this work, we conducted the populations' prioritization for Castanea sativa (sweet chestnut), a Neogene relict growing in the Caucasus global biodiversity hotspot. We generated genetic and ecological metrics for 21 sites in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which cover the natural range of sweet chestnut across the region. We demonstrated that climate primarily drives the pattern of genetic diversity in C. sativa, proved with a significant isolation-by-environment model. In future, climate change may significantly reorganize the species' genetic diversity, inducing even some genetic loss, especially in the very distinct eastern fringe of the species range in Azerbaijan. Based on our combined approach, we mapped populations suitable for ex situ and in situ conservation, accounting for genetic variability and the location of future climate refugia.

Genome Scan of Rice Landrace Populations Collected Across Time Revealed Climate Changes' Selective Footprints in the Genes Network Regulating Flowering Time

Analyses of the genetic bases of plant adaptation to climate changes, using genome-scan approaches, are often conducted on natural populations, under hypothesis of out-crossing reproductive regime. We report here on a study based on diachronic sampling (1980 and 2011) of the autogamous crop species, Oryza sativa and Oryza glaberrima, in the tropical forest and the Sudanian savannah of West Africa. First, using historical meteorological data we confirmed changes in temperatures (+ 1 °C on average) and rainfall regime (less predictable and reduced amount) in the target areas. Second, phenotyping the populations for phenology, we observed significantly earlier heading time in the 2010 samples. Third, implementing two genome-scan methods (one of which specially developed for selfing species) on genotyping by sequencing genotypic data of the two populations, we detected 31 independent selection footprints. Gene ontology analysis detected significant enrichment of these selection footprints in genes involved in reproductive processes. Some of them bore known heading time QTLs and genes, including OsGI, Hd1 and OsphyB. This rapid adaptive evolution, originated from subtle changes in the standing variation in genetic network regulating heading time, did not translate into predominance of multilocus genotypes, as it is often the case in selfing plants, and into notable selective sweeps. The high adaptive potential observed results from the multiline genetic structure of the rice landraces, and the rather large and imbricated genetic diversity of the rice meta-population at the farm, the village and the region levels, that hosted the adaptive variants in multiple genetic backgrounds before the advent of the environmental selective pressure. Our results illustrate the evolution of in situ diversity through processes of human and natural selection, and provide a model for rice breeding and cultivars deployment strategies aiming resilience to climate changes. It also calls for further development of population genetic models for adaptation of plant populations to environmental changes. To our best knowledge, this is the first study dealing with climate-changes' selective footprint in crops.

Phylogeography within the Peromyscus maniculatus species group: Understanding past distribution of genetic diversity and areas of refugia in western North America

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity have been recognized on every continent, ocean, and across different taxonomic groups. Here, we study the range dynamics and demography of a cosmopolitan species: the deer mouse, Peromyscus maniculatus. We generated a multilocus SNP dataset using the ddRADseq protocol for 218 individuals across the geographic range within three western North American lineages of this species group. We evaluated population structure using several methods and explored the correlation between geographic and genetic distances. We modeled the demographic history using a site frequency spectrum approach and used a machine learning algorithm to infer current and past (Last Glacial Maximum; LGM) environmental suitability. Lastly, we explored the origin of population expansion for the identified lineages. The genome-wide SNP dataset was able to identify-three regionally distinct groups- 1) P. m. gambelii (southern California); 2) P. keeni (Pacific Northwest); 3) P. m. sonoriensis (a broad population spanning the Pacific Northwest through central California and across the Rocky Mountains into the Great Plains). Demographic analysis indicated the splits between the three populations occurred within the last 500 thousand years, with one very recent (late Holocene) split. Ecological niche models for each of these lineages predicted suitable environment present throughout their known ranges for current conditions, and a severe reduction of northern habitat in the past. The deer mouse has responded to past climate changes by expanding its range during interglacial periods and contracting its range during glacial periods leading to strong population differentiation. But lower magnitude climate change or other processes within the Holocene interglacial period led to population differentiation as well, which is likely still ongoing today given the substantial anthropogenic climate change and other landscape transformations caused by humans during the Anthropocene. By understanding the historical processes that led to the contemporary geographic distribution of biodiversity, we can determine the relative importance of different factors that shape biodiversity, now and into the future.

Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review

Understanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface-to-volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long-term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta-analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.

Genetic diversity analysis and fingerprint construction of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) clonal seed orchard

Korean pine is a native tree species in Northeast China. In order to meet the needs of germplasm resource evaluation and molecular marker-assisted breeding of Korean pine, we collected Korean pine clones from 7 populations in Northeast China, analyzed the genetic diversity and genetic structure by SSR molecular marker technology and clustered them to revealed the inter- and intrapopulation differentiation characteristics of each clone. The fingerprint profiles of 161 Korean pine clones were also constructed. 77 alleles were detected for 11 markers, and 18 genotypes were identified on average for each marker. The PIC of the different markers ranged from 0.155-0.855, and the combination of PI and PIsibs for the 11 markers was 3.1 × 10-8 and 1.14 × 10-3, respectively. MANOVA showed that genetic variation existed mainly within populations, accounting for 98% of the total variation. The level of genetic differentiation among populations was low, with an average Nm between populations of 11.036. Genetic diversity is lower in the Lushuihe population and higher in the Tieli population. The 161 Korean pine clones were divided into 4 or 7 populations, and the 7 populations were not clearly distinguished from each other, with only the Lushuihe population showing partial differentiation. There is no significant correlation between the genetic distance of Korean pine populations and the geographical distance of their superior tree sources. This result can provide recommendations for future Korean pine breeding programs. The combination of 11 markers could completely distinguish 161 clones and establish the fingerprint. Genetic diversity of Korean pine clones from the 7 populations was abundant, and the genetic distances of individuals and populations were evenly dispersed. The fingerprint map can be used for the identification of Korean pine clones.

Genomic vulnerability to climate change in Quercus acutissima, a dominant tree species in East Asian deciduous forests

Understanding the evolutionary processes that shape the landscape of genetic variation and influence the response of species to future climate change is critical for biodiversity conservation. Here, we sampled 27 populations across the distribution range of a dominant forest tree, Quercus acutissima, in East Asia, and applied genome-wide analyses to track the evolutionary history and predict the fate of populations under future climate. We found two genetic groups (East and West) in Q. acutissima that diverged during Pliocene. We also found a heterogeneous landscape of genomic variation in this species, which may have been shaped by population demography and linked selections. Using genotype-environment association analyses, we identified climate-associated SNPs in a diverse set of genes and functional categories, indicating a model of polygenic adaptation in Q. acutissima. We further estimated three genetic offset metrics to quantify genomic vulnerability of this species to climate change due to the complex interplay between local adaptation and migration. We found that marginal populations are under higher risk of local extinction because of future climate change, and may not be able to track suitable habitats to maintain the gene-environment relationships observed under the current climate. We also detected higher reverse genetic offsets in northern China, indicating that genetic variation currently present in the whole range of Q. acutissima may not adapt to future climate conditions in this area. Overall, this study illustrates how evolutionary processes have shaped the landscape of genomic variation, and provides a comprehensive genome-wide view of climate maladaptation in Q. acutissima.

Is species richness mediated by functional and genetic divergence? A global analysis in birds

Unravelling why species richness shows such dramatic spatial variation is an ongoing challenge. Common to many theories is that increasing species richness (e.g. with latitude) requires a compensatory trade-off on an axis of species' ecology. Spatial variation in species richness may also affect genetic diversity if large numbers of coexisting, related species result in smaller population sizes.Here, we test whether increasing species richness results in differential occupation of morphospace by the constituent species, or decreases species' genetic diversity. We test for two potential mechanisms of morphological accommodation: denser packing in ecomorphological space, and expansion of the space. We then test whether species differ in their nucleotide diversity depending on allopatry or sympatry with relatives, indicative of potential genetic consequences of coexistence that would reduce genetic diversity in sympatry. We ask these questions in a spatially explicit framework, using a global database of avian functional trait measurements in combination with >120,000 sequences downloaded from GenBank.We find that higher species richness within families is not systematically correlated with either packing in morphological space or overdispersion but, at the Class level, we find a general positive relationship between packing and species richness, but that points sampled in the tropics have comparatively greater packing than temperate ones relative to their species richness. We find limited evidence that geographical co-occurrence with closely related species or tropical distributions decreases nucleotide diversity of nuclear genes; however, this requires further analysis.Our results suggest that avian families can accumulate species regionally with minimal tradeoffs or cost, implying that external biotic factors do not limit species richness. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Predicting the effects of rare genetic variants on oncogenic signaling pathways: A computational analysis of HRAS protein function

The HRAS gene plays a crucial role in regulating essential cellular processes for life, and this gene's misregulation is linked to the development of various types of cancers. Nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) within the coding region of HRAS can cause detrimental mutations that disrupt wild-type protein function. In the current investigation, we have employed in-silico methodologies to anticipate the consequences of infrequent genetic variations on the functional properties of the HRAS protein. We have discovered a total of 50 nsSNPs, of which 23 were located in the exon region of the HRAS gene and denoting that they were expected to cause harm or be deleterious. Out of these 23, 10 nsSNPs ([G60V], [G60D], [R123P], [D38H], [I46T], [G115R], [R123G], [P11OL], [A59L], and [G13R]) were identified as having the most delterious effect based on results of SIFT analysis and PolyPhen2 scores ranging from 0.53 to 69. The DDG values -3.21 kcal/mol to 0.87 kcal/mol represent the free energy change associated with protein stability upon mutation. Interestingly, we identified that the three mutations (Y4C, T58I, and Y12E) were found to improve the structural stability of the protein. We performed molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate the structural and dynamic effects of HRAS mutations. Our results showed that the stable model of HRAS had a significantly lower energy value of -18756 kj/mol compared to the initial model of -108915 kj/mol. The RMSD value for the wild-type complex was 4.40 Å, and the binding energies for the G60V, G60D, and D38H mutants were -107.09 kcal/mol, -109.42 kcal/mol, and -107.18 kcal/mol, respectively as compared to wild-type HRAS protein had -105.85 kcal/mol. The result of our investigation presents convincing corroboration for the potential functional significance of nsSNPs in augmenting HRAS expression and adding to the activation of malignant oncogenic signalling pathways.

Population genetics of the African snakehead fish Parachanna obscura along West Africa's water networks: Implications for sustainable management and conservation

An essential factor for aquatic conservation is genetic diversity or population divergence, which in natural populations reflects the interplay between geographical isolation with restricted gene flow and local evolution of populations. The long geological history of Africa may induce stronger among-population divergence and lower within-population divergence in fish populations of African watersheds. As an example, we studied population structure of the African snakehead fish Parachanna obscura. Our study aimed: (1) to develop a set of highly polymorphic microsatellite markers suitable for the analysis of genetic diversity among P. obscura and (2) to study the genetic diversity and structure of P. obscura populations from the West Africa region and mostly from Côte d'Ivoire, with respect to the effects of climate region and geographical distance on the genetic differentiation. A total of 259 specimens from 15 locations of P. obscura were collected over the West Africa region reflecting a high variability of pairwise geographical distances and variability of hydrological connectivity of the area. We developed a set of 21 polymorphic microsatellite markers for studying population genetics of the fish. The results showed relatively low intragenetic diversity for all the 15 locations, certainly attributable to confinement of fish in segregated catchments, resulting in limited gene flow. We also found evidence for local adaptation processes, suggested by five out of 21 microsatellite loci being under putative selection, according to BAYESCAN analysis. In turn, there was strong genetic differentiation (F ST > 0.5) among fish from most locations, reflecting the allopatric development in watersheds without hydraulic connectivity. Neighbor-joining dendrogram, Principal Coordinate Analysis, and analysis of ancestral groups by STRUCTURE suggested that the 15 locations can be divided into three clusters, mainly matching the dominant climate zones and the segregation of the watersheds in the region. The distinct genetic structure of the fish from the 15 locations obtained in this study suggests that conservation and sustainable management actions of this fish resource should avoid genetic mixing of potentially locally adapted populations.

Rapid evolution of a coastal marsh ecosystem engineer in response to global change

There is increasing evidence that global change can alter ecosystems by eliciting rapid evolution of foundational plants capable of shaping vital attributes and processes. Here we describe results of a field-scale exposure experiment and multilocus assays illustrating that elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) and nitrogen (N) enrichment can result in rapid shifts in genetic and genotypic variation in Phragmites australis, an ecologically dominant plant that acts as an ecosystem engineer in coastal marshes worldwide. Compared to control treatments, genotypic diversity declined over three years of exposure, especially to N enrichment. The magnitude of loss also increased over time under conditions of N enrichment. Comparisons of genotype frequencies revealed that proportional abundances shifted with exposure to eCO₂ and N in a manner consistent with expected responses to selection. Comparisons also revealed evidence of tradeoffs that constrained exposure responses, where any particular genotype responded favorably to one factor rather than to different factors or to combinations of factors. These findings challenge the prevailing view that plant-mediated ecosystem outcomes of global change are governed primarily by differences in species responses to shifting environmental pressures and highlight the value of accounting for organismal evolution in predictive models to improve forecasts of ecosystem responses to global change.

Ecological niche models reveal divergent habitat use of Pallas's cat in the Eurasian cold steppes

Identifying the association between the patterns of niche occupation and phylogenetic relationships among sister clades and assisting conservation planning implications are of the most important applications of species distribution models (SDMs). However, most studies have been carried out regardless of within taxon genetic differentiation and the potential of local adaptation occurring within the species level. The Pallas's cat (Otocolobus manul) is a less-studied species with unknown biogeography and phylogenetic structure across a widespread yet isolated range from the Caucasus to eastern China. In the current study, by considering a previously proposed genetic structure and based on a cluster analysis on climatic variables, we supposed three clades for this species, including O. m. manul, O. m. ferrugineus, and O. m. nigripectus. We developed SDM for each clade separately and compared it with a general distribution model of the species to determine whether the hypothesized taxonomic resolution affects the predicted ecological niche of the within-species structures. We assessed the effect of climate change on the future distribution of the species to detect the most sensitive clades to global warming scenarios. Our results showed that for all clades' models, the AUC and TSS were greater than the general model. Access to the preferred prey of the Pallas's cat, that is, pika, had a significant effect on the distribution of O. m. manul and O. m. ferrugineus, whereas the most influential variable affecting O. m. nigripectus habitat suitability was terrain slope. Based on our future projections, we found that future climate change likely threatens the clades O. m. ferrugineus and O. m. nigripectus more than O. m. manul, findings that were hidden in the general model. Our results highlight the proficiency of SDMs in recognizing within-taxon habitat use of widespread species and the necessity of this procedure for implementing effective conservation planning of these species.

Range shift and loss of genetic diversity under climate change in the red-backed fairywren (Malurus melanocephalus), an Australian endemic bird species

Climatic variability is the most important force influencing the distribution dynamics of common and widespread species, with significant effects on their current biogeographical patterns. In this study, phylogeography was integrated with ecological niche modelling to understand the range dynamics of an Australian bird species, the red-backed fairywren (Malurus melanocephalus), under various climate change scenarios. Specifically, an ecological niche modelling approach with Bayesian-based phylogeographical analysis was used to develop robust inferences regarding the demographic history of the species. The predictions of the model were mostly consistent with the present distribution of the species. However, under the Last Interglacial bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a significantly narrower distribution than today, indicating the existence of allopatric refugia. Predictions for the Last Glacial Maximum indicated that the species had a wider distribution, extending northwards. Additionally, predictions for the future (2050 and 2070) indicated that the species will probably have a narrower distribution than at present, which will be shifted eastwards. The extended Bayesian skyline plot analysis, which provides a robust analysis of fluctuations in the effective population size throughout the evolutionary history of a species, produced results highly consistent with the ecological niche modelling predictions for the red-backed fairywren. This is the first study to investigate the Late Quaternary history of an endemic avian taxon from Australia using ecological niche modelling and Bayesian-based demographic analysis.

Climate change will redefine taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity of Odonata in space and time

Climate change is rearranging the mosaic of biodiversity worldwide. These broad-scale species re-distributions affect the structure and composition of communities with a ripple effect on multiple biodiversity facets. Using European Odonata, we asked: i) how climate change will redefine taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity at European scales; ii) which traits will mediate species' response to global change; iii) whether this response will be phylogenetically conserved. Using stacked species distribution models, we forecast widespread latitudinal and altitudinal rearrangements in Odonata community composition determining broad turnovers in traits and evolutionary lineages. According to our phylogenetic regression models, only body size and flight period can be partly correlated with observed range shifts. In considering all primary facets of biodiversity, our results support the design of inclusive conservation strategies able to account for the diversity of species, the ecosystem services they provide, and the phylogenetic heritage they carry in a target ecosystem.

Stacked distribution models predict climate-driven loss of variation in leaf phenology at continental scales

Climate change is having profound effects on species distributions and is likely altering the distribution of genetic variation across landscapes. Maintaining population genetic diversity is essential for the survival of species facing rapid environmental change, and variation loss will further ecological and evolutionary change. We used trait values of spring foliar leaf-out phenology of 400 genotypes from three geographically isolated populations of Populus angustifolia grown under common conditions, in concert with stacked species distribution modeling, to ask: (a) How will climate change alter phenological variation across the P. angustifolia species-range, and within populations; and (b) will the distribution of phenological variation among and within populations converge (become more similar) in future climatic conditions? Models predicted a net loss of phenological variation in future climate scenarios on 20-25% of the landscape across the species' range, with the trailing edge population losing variation on as much as 47% of the landscape. Our models also predicted that population's phenological trait distributions will become more similar over time. This stacked distribution model approach allows for the identification of areas expected to experience the greatest loss of genetically based functional trait variation and areas that may be priorities to conserve as future genetic climate refugia.

Phylogenetic biome conservatism as a key concept for an integrative understanding of evolutionary history: Galliformes and Falconiformes as study cases

Biomes are climatically and biotically distinctive macroecological units that formed over geological time scales. Their features consolidate them as ‘evolutionary scenarios’, with their own diversification dynamics. Under the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism, we assessed, for the first time, the evolution of biome occupation in birds. We aimed to analyse patterns of adaptation to different climatic regimes and the determinant factors for colonization of emerging biomes by clades from different ancestral biomes. In this work, we reconstructed the biome occupation history of two clades of birds (Galliformes and Falconiformes) under an integrative perspective through a comprehensive review of ecological, phylogenetic, palaeontological and biogeographical evidence. Our findings for both groups are consistent with a scenario of phylogenetic biome conservatism and highlight the importance of changes in climate during the Miocene in the adaptation and evolution of climatic niches. In particular, our results indicate high biome conservatism associated with biomes situated in some of the extremes of the global climate gradient (evergreen tropical rainforest, steppe and tundra) for both bird taxa. Finally, the historical dynamics of tropical seasonal biomes, such as tropical deciduous woodlands and savannas, appear to have played a preponderant role during the diversification processes of these bird lineages.

Ontogeny-dependent effects of elevated CO2 and watering frequency on interaction between Aristolochia contorta and its herbivores

Effects of environmental change on plants can differ due to sequential changes in their life-history strategies (i.e., ontogenetic variations). The fitness of herbivorous insects by physiological changes of the host plant could be affected depending on their diet breadth. However, little is known regarding the combinational effects of plant ontogeny and climate change on plant-herbivore interactions. This study examined the plant ontogeny-dependent effects of climate change on the interaction between a host plant (Aristolochia contorta), its specialist herbivore (Sericinus montela), and a generalist herbivore (Spodoptera exigua). Plants were grown under a factorial design of two distinct CO₂ concentrations (ambient, 400 ppm; elevated, 560 ppm) and two watering frequencies (control, once a week; increased, twice a week). Plant ontogeny ameliorated the effects of climate change by altering its defensive traits, where nutrient-related factors were cumulatively affected by climate change. Herbivore performance was assessed at three different plant ontogenetic stages (1st-year juvenile, 1st-year senescence, and 2nd-year juvenile). Elevated CO₂ levels reduced the growth and survival of the specialist herbivore, whereas increased watering frequency partially alleviated this reduced performance. Generalist herbivore performance slightly increased under elevated CO₂ levels with progressing ontogenetic stages. The effects of climate change, both elevated CO₂ and increased watering frequency were weaker in 2nd-year juveniles than in 1st-year juveniles. Elevated CO₂ levels detrimentally affected the nutritional quality of A. contorta leaves. The effects of climate change on both specialist and generalist herbivore performance differed as plant ontogenetic stage proceeded. Increased growth rates and survival of the generalist herbivore at the latter ontogenetic stage might negatively affect the population dynamics of a specialist herbivore. This study suggests that biases are possible when the plant-herbivore interaction under a changing environment is predicted from a singular plant ontogenetic stage.

Patterns of genetic diversity and structure of a threatened palm species (Euterpe edulis Arecaceae) from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The detection of distribution patterns of genetic diversity of plant and animal species has contributed to the understanding of biodiversity and evolutionary history of the Atlantic Forest. We used microsatellite markers to access the genetic diversity and structure of 26 populations and 527 adult individuals of Euterpe edulis, a native palm which is an important food resource for fauna and is intensively exploited due to economic reasons. We found high genetic diversity and inbreeding in all populations analyzed. We report highest rates of inbreeding for this species, which could reflect the anthropic impacts of selective cutting, fragmentation, and change in foraging behavior from pollinators and less availability and mobility of large dispersers. We detected by STRUCTURE, two genetic groups, Northern and Southern, which divide the Brazilian Atlantic Forest geographically. These groups have low genetic admixtures, but we found a region of lineage hybridization in the contact zone with low recent gene flow. Distribution pattern of this species corroborates results from previous studies reporting the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have shaped the structuring of the species through movements of forests' expansion and contraction. The STRUCTURE analysis of each group revealed the presence of genetic subgroups with low rates of recurrent gene flow. Southern subgroups have higher rates of admixtures than the Northern subgroups, revealing greater historical connectivity of forests in this region.

Influence of Pleistocene climate fluctuations on the demographic history and distribution of the critically endangered Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla)

Background

Pleistocene climate fluctuations have strongly modified species genetic diversity and distributions. The Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) has been recognized as a critically endangered animal due to heavy poaching and trafficking. However, the effect of Pleistocene climate fluctuations on the genetic diversity and spatial distribution of the Chinese pangolin remains largely unknown. Here, we combined whole genome sequencing data, analysis of complete mitochondrial genomes, and a large amount of occurrence data from field surveys to infer the ancestral demographic history and predict the past spatial dynamics of the Chinese pangolin in Guangdong Province, China.

Results

Our results indicated that there were two subpopulations, which showed similar trends of population size change in response to past climatic changes. We estimated a peak effective population size (Ne) during the last interglacial (LIG), followed by a marked decrease (~ 0.5 to fivefold change) until the last glacial maximum (LGM) and a rebound to a small peak population size during the Mid-Holocene (MH). The estimated time of the separation event between two subpopulations was approximately 3,000–2,500 years ago (ka). We estimated that the distribution of suitable areas shrank by 14.4% from the LIG to LGM, followed by an expansion of 31.4% from the LGM to MH and has been stable since then. In addition, we identified an elevational shift and suitable area decreased significantly during the LGM, but that the geographic extent of suitable areas in the western region increased from the LIG to present. The eastern region of Guangdong Province had the highest habitat suitability across all the climate scenarios.

Conclusions

Our results suggested that Pleistocene climate fluctuations played an important role in shaping patterns of genetic diversity and spatial distribution, and that human stressors likely contributed to the recent divergence of two Chinese pangolin subpopulations sampled here. We argue that a key protected area should be established in the eastern region of Guangdong Province. As such, this study provides a more thorough understanding of the impacts of Pleistocene climate fluctuations impacts on a mammalian species in southern China and suggests more robust management and conservation plans for this Critically Endangered species of special interest.

Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus

Predicting species-level effects of climatic changes requires unraveling the factors affecting the spatial genetic composition. However, disentangling the relative contribution of historical and contemporary drivers is challenging. By applying landscape genetics and species distribution modeling, we investigated processes that shaped the neutral genetic structure of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis), aiming to assess the potential risks involved due to possible future distribution changes in the species. Using nuclear microsatellites, we analyze 32 natural populations from the Georgia and Azerbaijan (South Caucasus). We found that the species colonization history is the most important driver of the genetic pattern. The detected west-east gradient of genetic differentiation corresponds strictly to the Colchis and Hyrcanian glacial refugia. A significant signal of associations to environmental variables suggests that the distinct genetic composition of the Azerbaijan and Hyrcanian stands might also be structured by the local climate. Oriental beech retains an overall high diversity; however, in the context of projected habitat loss, its genetic resources might be greatly impoverished. The most affected are the Azerbaijan and Hyrcanian populations, for which the detected genetic impoverishment may enhance their vulnerability to environmental change. Given the adaptive potential of range-edge populations, the loss of these populations may ultimately affect the specie's adaptation, and thus the stability and resilience of forest ecosystems in the Caucasus ecoregion. Our study is the first approximation of the potential risks involved, inducing far-reaching conclusions about the need of maintaining the genetic resources of Oriental beech for a species' capacity to cope with environmental change.

Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change

Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.

Assessing genomic and ecological differentiation among subspecies of the Rough-footed Mud Turtle, Kinosternon hirtipes

Combining genetic and ecological measures of differentiation can provide compelling evidence for ecological and genetic divergence among lineages. The Rough-footed Mud Turtle, Kinosternon hirtipes, is distributed from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas to the highlands of Central Mexico and contains six described subspecies, five of which are extant. We use ddRAD sequencing and species distribution models to assess levels of ecological and genetic differentiation among these subspecies. We also predict changes in climatically suitable habitat under different climate change scenarios and assess levels of genetic diversity and inbreeding within each lineage. Our results show that there is strong genetic and ecological differentiation among multiple lineages within K. hirtipes, and that this differentiation appears to be the result of vicariance associated with the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. We propose changes to subspecies designations to more accurately reflect the evolutionary relationships among populations and assess threats to each subspecies.

Genetic variability and the ecology of geographic range: A test of the central-marginal hypothesis in Australian scincid lizards

For many species, both local abundance and regional occupancy are highest near the centre of their geographic distributions. One hypothesis for this pattern is that niche suitability declines with increasing distance from a species geographic centre, such that populations near range margins are characterized by reduced density and increased patchiness. In these smaller edge populations, genetic drift is more powerful, leading to the loss of genetic diversity. This simple verbal model has been formalized as the central-marginal hypothesis, which predicts that core populations should have greater genetic diversity than edge populations. Here, we tested the central-marginal hypothesis using a genomic data set of 25 species-level taxa of Australian scincid lizards in the genera Ctenotus and Lerista. A majority of taxa in our data set showed range-wide patterns of genetic variation consistent with central-marginal hypothesis, and eight of 25 taxa showed significantly greater genetic diversity in the centre of their range. We then explored biological, historical, and methodological factors that might predict which taxa support the central-marginal hypothesis. We found that taxa with the strongest evidence for range expansion were the least likely to follow predictions of the central-marginal hypothesis. The majority of these taxa had range expansions that originated at the range edge, which led to a gradient of decreasing genetic diversity from the range edge to the core, contrary to the central-marginal hypothesis.

Consequences of introgression and gene flow on the genetic structure and diversity of Lima bean (Phaseolus lunatus L.) in its Mesoamerican diversity area

We evaluated the role of gene flow and wild-crop introgression on the structure and genetic diversity of Lima bean (Phaseolus lunatus) in the Yucatan Peninsula, an important Mesoamerican diversity area for this crop, using a genotyping-by-sequencing approach (15,168 SNP markers) and two scales. At the local scale, STRUCTURE and NGSEP analyses showed predominantly crop-to-wild introgression, but also evidence of a bidirectional gene flow in the two wild-weedy-crop complexes studied (Itzinté and Dzitnup). The ABBA-BABA tests showed a higher introgression in Itzinté (the older complex) than in Dzitnup (the younger one); at the allelic level, the wild-crop introgression in Itzinté was similar in both directions, in Dzitnup it was higher from crop-to-wild; and at the chromosomal level, introgression in Itzinté was from wild-to-crop, whereas in Dzitnup it occured in the opposite direction. Also, we found H _E values slightly higher in the domesticated accessions than in the wild ones, in both complexes (Itzinté: wild = 0.31, domesticated = 0.34; Dzinup: wild = 0.27, domesticated = 0.36), but %P and π estimators were higher in the wild accessions than in the domesticated ones. At a regional scale, STRUCTURE and MIGRATE showed a low gene flow, predominantly from crop-to-wild; and STRUCTURE, Neighbor-Joining and PCoA analyses indicated the existence of two wild groups and one domesticated group, with a marked genetic structure based in the existence of domesticated MI and wild MII gene pools. Also, at the regional scale, we found a higher genetic diversity in the wild accessions than in the domesticated ones, in all estimators used (e.g., H _E = 0.27 and H _E = 0.17, respectively). Our results indicate that gene flow and introgression are playing an important role at the local scale, but its consequences on the structure and genetic diversity of the Lima bean are not clearly reflected at the regional scale, where diversity patterns between wild and domesticated populations could be reflecting historical events.

The untapped potential of macrofossils in ancient plant DNA research

The rapid development of ancient DNA analysis in the last decades has induced a paradigm shift in ecology and evolution. Driven by a combination of breakthroughs in DNA isolation techniques, high-throughput sequencing, and bioinformatics, ancient genome-scale data for a rapidly growing variety of taxa are now available, allowing researchers to directly observe demographic and evolutionary processes over time. However, the vast majority of paleogenomic studies still focus on human or animal remains. In this article, we make the case for a vast untapped resource of ancient plant material that is ideally suited for paleogenomic analyses: plant remains, such as needles, leaves, wood, seeds, or fruits, that are deposited in natural archives, such as lake sediments, permafrost, or even ice caves. Such plant remains are commonly found in large numbers and in stratigraphic sequence through time and have so far been used primarily to reconstruct past local species presences and abundances. However, they are also unique repositories of genetic information with the potential to revolutionize the fields of ecology and evolution by directly studying microevolutionary processes over time. Here, we give an overview of the current state-of-the-art, address important challenges, and highlight new research avenues to inspire future research.

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs. Predicting the future vulnerability of reef-building corals, the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems, is crucial for cost-effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we combine regional population genetic connectivity and seascape analyses to explore patterns of genetic offset (the mismatch of gene-environmental associations under future climate conditions) in Acropora digitifera across 12 degrees of latitude in Western Australia. Our data revealed a pattern of restricted gene flow and limited genetic connectivity among geographically distant reef systems. Environmental association analyses identified a suite of loci strongly associated with the regional temperature variation. These loci helped forecast future genetic offset in gradient forest and generalised dissimilarity models. These analyses predicted pronounced differences in the response of different reef systems in Western Australia to rising temperatures. Under the most optimistic future warming scenario (RCP 2.6), we predicted a general pattern of increasing genetic offset with latitude. Under the extreme climate scenario (RCP 8.5 in 2090-2100), coral populations at the Ningaloo World Heritage Area were predicted to experience a higher mismatch between current allele frequencies and those required to cope with local environmental change, compared to populations in the inshore Kimberley region. The study suggests complex and spatially heterogeneous patterns of climate-change vulnerability in coral populations across Western Australia, reinforcing the notion that regionally tailored conservation efforts will be most effective at managing coral reef resilience into the future.

Climate change will disproportionally affect the most genetically diverse lineages of a widespread African tree species

Global climate change is proceeding at an alarming rate with major ecological and genetic consequences for biodiversity, particularly in drylands. The response of species to climate change may differ between intraspecific genetic groups, with major implications for conservation. We used molecular data from 10 nuclear and two chloroplast genomes to identify phylogeographic groups within 746 individuals from 29 populations of Senegalia senegal, a savannah tree species in sub-Saharan Africa. Three phylogroups are identified corresponding to Sudano-Sahelian, Zambezian and Southern African biogeographic regions in West, East and Southern Africa. Genetic diversity was highest in Southern and Zambesian and lowest in the Sudano-Sahelian phylogroups. Using species distribution modeling, we infer highly divergent future distributions of the phylogroups under three climate change scenarios. Climate change will lead to severe reductions of distribution area of the genetically diverse Zambezian (- 41-- 54%) and Southern (- 63-- 82%) phylogroups, but to an increase for the genetically depauperate Sudano-Sahelian (+ 7- + 26%) phylogroups. This study improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on the future distribution of this species. This knowledge is particularly useful for biodiversity management as the conservation of genetic resources needs to be considered in complementary strategies of in-situ conservation and assisted migration.

Phenotypic differentiation and diversifying selection in populations of Eruca sativa along an aridity gradient

BACKGROUND

The aridity gradient in the eastern Mediterranean offers an opportunity to investigate intra-specific genetic differentiation and local adaptation in plant populations. Here we used genetic (FST) and quantitative trait (PST) differentiation to assess local adaptation among three natural populations of Eruca sativa (Brassicaceae) distributed along a climatic range representing desert, semi-arid and Mediterranean habitats.

RESULTS

Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis revealed high genetic diversity in each population, but low genetic differentiation between populations and relatively high gene flow. Further phenotypic evaluation in a common garden experiment (conduced in a Mediterranean habitat) showed clear differences in phenological traits among populations (day of flowering and duration of the reproductive stage), shoot and root biomass, as well as fitness-related traits (total number of fruits and total seed weight). FST-PST comparison showed that PST values of the phenological traits, as well as below- and above-ground biomass and fitness-related traits, were higher than the FST values.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our results support the identification of genotypic and phenotypic differentiation among populations of E. sativa. Furthermore, the FST-PST comparison supports the hypothesis that these were subjected to past diversifying selection. Thus, the results clearly demonstrate adaptive divergence among populations along an aridity gradient, emphasize the ecological value of early flowering time in arid habitats, and contribute to our understanding of the possible impact of climate change on evolutionary processes in plant populations.

Neutral and Selective Processes Shape MHC Diversity in Roe Deer in Slovenia

Simple Summary

Disease prevention and appropriate wildlife management are among the major challenges in wildlife conservation. In the present study, we made a first assessment of the variability of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes in roe deer in Slovenia and evaluated local population adaptation by comparing MHC variability with neutral microsatellites. We discovered three new MHC DRB exon 2 alleles in addition to seven previously described in the literature. Moreover, we found evidence of historical positive selection, as selection analysis indicated that approx. 10% of the encoded amino acids were subjected to episodic positive selection. This study provides the basis for further research on immunogenetic variation in roe deer and highlights opportunities to incorporate genetic data into science-based population management.

Abstract

Disease control and containment in free-ranging populations is one of the greatest challenges in wildlife management. Despite the importance of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genes for immune response, an assessment of the diversity and occurrence of these genes is still rare in European roe deer, the most abundant and widespread large mammal in Europe. Therefore, we examined immunogenetic variation in roe deer in Slovenia to identify species adaptation by comparing the genetic diversity of the MHC genes with the data on neutral microsatellites. We found ten MHC DRB alleles, three of which are novel. Evidence for historical positive selection on the MHC was found using the maximum likelihood codon method. Patterns of MHC allelic distribution were not congruent with neutral population genetic findings. The lack of population genetic differentiation in MHC genes compared to existing structure in neutral markers suggests that MHC polymorphism was influenced primarily by balancing selection and, to a lesser extent, by neutral processes such as genetic drift, with no clear evidence of local adaptation. Selection analyses indicated that approx. 10% of amino acids encoded under episodic positive selection. This study represents one of the first steps towards establishing an immunogenetic map of roe deer populations across Europe, aiming to better support science-based management of this important game species.

Environmental Niche Dynamics of Blue Grama (Bouteloua gracilis) Ecotypes in Northern Mexico: Genetic Structure and Implications for Restoration Management

Understanding the genetic structure adopted by natural populations and its relation to environmental adaptation is critical for the success of restoration programs. We evaluated the genetic structure and temporal environmental niche dynamics of blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis) in 48 populations. The genetic evaluation was performed through amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) molecular markers. The maximum entropy method was used to model the past, present, and future environmental niches of the three clusters derived from the genetic analysis. The environmental niches of the three genetic clusters showed dynamic overlaps and isolations during the last interglacial and glacial maximum. The paleoclimatic events, which occurred during those periods, may have reinforced genetic exchange among populations and affected their genetic structure. Genetic clusters also presented different environmental niches in the present. Thus, they can be considered as three distinct ecotypes and restoration programs must be carried out using local germplasm from each environmental niche to increase their chance of success. Based on the environmental niches of the genetic clusters, changes are expected in the near and mid-century future. Therefore, climate change must be considered for species conservation management and future restoration programs.

The relevance of genetic structure in ecotype designation and conservation management

The concept of ecotypes is complex, partly because of its interdisciplinary nature, but the idea is intrinsically valuable for evolutionary biology and applied conservation. The complex nature of ecotypes has spurred some confusion and inconsistencies in the literature, thereby limiting broader theoretical development and practical application. We provide suggestions for how incorporating genetic analyses can ease confusion and help define ecotypes. We approach this by systematically reviewing 112 publications across taxa that simultaneously mention the terms ecotype, conservation and management, to examine the current use of the term in the context of conservation and management. We found that most ecotype studies involve fish, mammals and plants with a focus on habitat use, which at 60% was the most common criterion used for categorization of ecotypes. Only 53% of the studies incorporated genetic analyses, and major discrepancies in available genomic resources among taxa could have contributed to confusion about the role of genetic structure in delineating ecotypes. Our results show that the rapid advances in genetic methods, also for nonmodel organisms, can help clarify the spatiotemporal distribution of adaptive and neutral genetic variation and their relevance to ecotype designations. Genetic analyses can offer empirical support for the ecotype concept and provide a timely measure of evolutionary potential, especially in changing environmental conditions. Genetic variation that is often difficult to detect, including polygenic traits influenced by small contributions from several genes, can be vital for adaptation to rapidly changing environments. Emerging ecotypes may signal speciation in progress, and findings from genome-enabled organisms can help clarify important selective factors driving ecotype development and persistence, and thereby improve preservation of interspecific genetic diversity. Incorporation of genetic analyses in ecotype studies will help connect evolutionary biology and applied conservation, including that of problematic groups such as natural hybrid organisms and urban or anthropogenic ecotypes.

The Centre–Periphery Model, a Possible Explanation for the Distribution of Some Pinus spp. in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico

Genetic diversity is key to survival of species. In evolutionary ecology, the general centre–periphery theory suggests that populations of species located at the margins of their distribution areas display less genetic diversity and greater genetic differentiation than populations from central areas. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic diversity and differentiation in six of the main pine species of the Sierra Madre Occidental (northern Mexico). The species considered were Pinus arizonica, P. cembroides, P. durangensis, Pinus engelmannii, P. herrerae and P. leiophylla, which occur at the margins and centre of the geographic distribution. We sampled needles from 2799 individuals belonging to 80 populations of the six species. We analysed amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) to estimate diversity and rarity indexes, applied Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA), and used the Kruskal–Wallis test to detect genetic differences. Finally, we calculated Spearman’s correlation for association between variables. The general centre–periphery model only explained the traits in P. herrerae. The elevation gradient was an important factor that influenced genetic diversity. However, for elevation as partitioning criterion, most populations showed a central distribution. This information may be useful for establishing seed collections of priority individuals for maintenance in germplasm banks and their subsequent sustainable use.

Cytotype and genotype predict mortality and recruitment in Colorado quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides)

Species responses to climate change depend on environment, genetics, and interactions among these factors. Intraspecific cytotype (ploidy level) variation is a common type of genetic variation in many species. However, the importance of intraspecific cytotype variation in determining demography across environments is poorly known. We studied quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides), which occurs in diploid and triploid cytotypes. This widespread tree species is experiencing contractions in its western range, which could potentially be linked to cytotype-dependent drought tolerance. We found that interactions between cytotype and environment drive mortality and recruitment across 503 plots in Colorado. Triploids were more vulnerable to mortality relative to diploids and had reduced recruitment on more drought-prone and disturbed plots relative to diploids. Furthermore, there was substantial genotype-dependent variation in demography. Thus, cytotype and genotype variation are associated with decline in this foundation species. Future assessment of demographic responses to climate change will benefit from knowledge of how genetic and environmental mosaics interact to determine species' ecophysiology and demography.

Larger body size leads to greater female beluga whale ovarian reproductive activity at the southern periphery of their range

Identification of phenotypic characteristics in reproductively successful individuals provides important insights into the evolutionary processes that cause range shifts due to environmental change. Female beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the Baffin Bay region (BB) of the Canadian Arctic in the core area of the species' geographic range have larger body size than their conspecifics at the southern range periphery in Hudson Bay (HB). We investigated the mechanism for this north and south divergence as it relates to ovarian reproductive activity (ORA = total corpora) that combines morphometric data with ovarian corpora counted from female reproductive tracts. Our study aim was to assess the relative influence of age and body size of female beluga whale on ORA in the two populations. Female beluga whale ORA increased more quickly with age (63% partial variation explained) in BB than in HB (41%). In contrast, body length in HB female beluga whales accounted for considerably more of the total variation (12% vs. 1%) in ORA compared to BB whales. We speculate that female HB beluga whale ORA was more strongly linked with body length due to higher population density resulting in food competition that favors the energetic advantages of larger body size during seasonal food limitations. Understanding the evolutionary mechanism of how ORA varies across a species' range will assist conservation efforts in anticipating and mitigating future challenges associated with a warming planet.

A genomic and morphometric analysis of alpine bumblebees: Ongoing reductions in tongue length but no clear genetic component

Over the last six decades, populations of the bumblebees Bombus sylvicola and Bombus balteatus in Colorado have experienced decreases in tongue length, a trait important for plant-pollinator mutualisms. It has been hypothesized that this observation reflects selection resulting from shifts in floral composition under climate change. Here we used morphometrics and population genomics to determine whether morphological change is ongoing, investigate the genetic basis of morphological variation, and analyse population structure in these populations. We generated a genome assembly of B. balteatus. We then analysed whole-genome sequencing data and morphometric measurements of 580 samples of both species from seven high-altitude localities. Out of 281 samples originally identified as B. sylvicola, 67 formed a separate genetic cluster comprising a newly-discovered cryptic species ("incognitus"). However, an absence of genetic structure within species suggests that gene flow is common between mountains. We found a significant decrease in tongue length between bees collected between 2012-2014 and in 2017, indicating that morphological shifts are ongoing. We did not discover any genetic associations with tongue length, but a SNP related to production of a proteolytic digestive enzyme was implicated in body size variation. We identified evidence of covariance between kinship and both tongue length and body size, which is suggestive of a genetic component of these traits, although it is possible that shared environmental effects between colonies are responsible. Our results provide evidence for ongoing modification of a morphological trait important for pollination and indicate that this trait probably has a complex genetic and environmental basis.

Genetic diversity of Salixlapponum populations in Central Europe

Salixlapponum is a cold-tolerant relict species in Europe that occurs in several sites, probably reflecting previous migration routes of S.lapponum during the Pleistocene. However, only a few data are available on the genetic structures of populations of S.lapponum. In this study, we use PCR-ISSR markers to investigate genetic variation in 19 European populations of S.lapponum L. AMOVA analysis shows that most of the variation (55.8%) occurs within populations; variability among groups accounts for 19.7%. An AMOVA analysis based on four groups determined by STRUCTURE analysis shows similar results: variability of 54.1% within the population and variability of 18.9% between the four population groups, based on geographic regions. Within individual geographic groups, which are characterised by the studied populations, the lowest variability (as well as the highest homogeneity) was found in populations located in Belarus. The obtained results are consistent with our expectations that the European Lowland could be a significant geographic barrier for gene flow over large geographic distances for S.lapponum. Both the Scandinavian and Belarusian populations, as well as those coming from NE Poland, are characterised by significant genetic distinctiveness. However, some populations from NE Poland and the Sudetes show similarities with populations from other geographic regions, indicating existing genetic relationships between them. Moreover, the results suggest a fairly clear division of the population into 4 emerging geographic regions, although separated by a geographical barrier: the Polish lowland, which forms part of the larger geographic unit known as the European Lowland.

Why Are Species’ Traits Weak Predictors of Range Shifts?

We examine the evidence linking species’ traits to contemporary range shifts and find they are poor predictors of range shifts that have occurred over decades to a century. We then discuss reasons for the poor performance of traits for describing interspecific variation in range shifts from two perspectives: ( a) factors associated with species’ traits that degrade range-shift signals stemming from the measures used for species’ traits, traits that are typically not analyzed, and the influence of phylogeny on range-shift potential and ( b) issues in quantifying range shifts and relating them to species’ traits due to imperfect detection of species, differences in the responses of altitudinal and latitudinal ranges, and emphasis on testing linear relationships between traits and range shifts instead of nonlinear responses. Improving trait-based approaches requires a recognition that traits within individuals interact in unexpected ways and that different combinations of traits may be functionally equivalent.

Climate differently influences the genomic patterns of two sympatric marine fish species

Climate influences population genetic variation in marine species. Capturing these impacts remains challenging for marine fishes which disperse over large geographical scales spanning steep environmental gradients. It requires the extensive spatial sampling of individuals or populations, representative of seascape heterogeneity, combined with a set of highly informative molecular markers capable of revealing climatic-associated genetic variations. We explored how space, dispersal and environment shape the genomic patterns of two sympatric fish species in the Mediterranean Sea, which ranks among the oceanic basins most affected by climate change and human pressure. We hypothesized that the population structure and climate-associated genomic signatures of selection would be stronger in the less mobile species, as restricted gene flow tends to facilitate the fixation of locally adapted alleles. To test our hypothesis, we genotyped two species with contrasting dispersal abilities: the white seabream Diplodus sargus and the striped red mullet Mullus surmuletus. We collected 823 individuals and used genotyping by sequencing (GBS) to detect 8,206 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for the seabream and 2,794 for the mullet. For each species, we identified highly differentiated genomic regions (i.e. outliers) and disentangled the relative contribution of space, dispersal and environmental variables (climate, marine primary productivity) on the outliers' genetic structure to test the prevalence of gene flow and local adaptation. We observed contrasting patterns of gene flow and adaptive genetic variation between the two species. The seabream showed a distinct Alboran sea population and panmixia across the Mediterranean Sea. The mullet revealed additional differentiation within the Mediterranean Sea that was significantly correlated to summer and winter temperatures, as well as marine primary productivity. Functional annotation of the climate-associated outlier SNPs then identified candidate genes involved in heat tolerance that could be examined to further predict species' responses to climate change. Our results illustrate the key steps of a comparative seascape genomics study aiming to unravel the evolutionary processes at play in marine species, to better anticipate their response to climate change. Defining population adaptation capacities and environmental niches can then serve to incorporate evolutionary processes into species conservation planning.

Sea ice reduction drives genetic differentiation among Barents Sea polar bears

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is predicted to reduce both genetic diversity and gene flow in ice-dependent species, with potentially negative consequences for their long-term viability. Here, we tested for the population-genetic impacts of reduced sea ice cover on the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sampled across two decades (1995-2016) from the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway, an area that is affected by rapid sea ice loss in the Arctic Barents Sea. We analysed genetic variation at 22 microsatellite loci for 626 polar bears from four sampling areas within the archipelago. Our results revealed a 3-10% loss of genetic diversity across the study period, accompanied by a near 200% increase in genetic differentiation across regions. These effects may best be explained by a decrease in gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation owing to the loss of sea ice coverage, resulting in increased inbreeding of local polar bears within the focal sampling areas in the Svalbard Archipelago. This study illustrates the importance of genetic monitoring for developing adaptive management strategies for polar bears and other ice-dependent species.

Temperature dependence of spontaneous mutation rates

Mutation is the source of genetic variation and the fundament of evolution. Temperature has long been suggested to have a direct impact on realized spontaneous mutation rates. If mutation rates vary in response to environmental conditions, such as the variation of the ambient temperature through space and time, they should no longer be described as species-specific constants. By combining mutation accumulation with whole-genome sequencing in a multicellular organism, we provide empirical support to reject the null hypothesis of a constant, temperature-independent mutation rate. Instead, mutation rates depended on temperature in a U-shaped manner with increasing rates toward both temperature extremes. This relation has important implications for mutation-dependent processes in molecular evolution, processes shaping the evolution of mutation rates, and even the evolution of biodiversity as such.