Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission

Epidemiologic History and Genetic Diversity Origins of Chikungunya and Dengue Viruses, Paraguay

Paraguay has been severely affected by emergent Zika and chikungunya viruses, and dengue virus is endemic. To learn more about the origins of genetic diversity and epidemiologic history of these viruses in Paraguay, we deployed portable sequencing technologies to strengthen genomic surveillance and determine the evolutionary and epidemic history of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses). Samples stored at the Paraguay National Central Laboratory were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. Among 33 virus genomes generated, we identified 2 genotypes of chikungunya and 2 serotypes of dengue virus that circulated in Paraguay during 2014–2018; the main source of these virus lineages was estimated to be Brazil. The evolutionary history inferred by our analyses precisely matched the available travel history of the patients. The genomic surveillance approach used was valuable for describing the epidemiologic history of arboviruses and can be used to determine the origins and evolution of future arbovirus outbreaks.

Assessing temperature-dependent competition between two invasive mosquito species

Invasive mosquitoes are expanding their ranges into new geographic areas and interacting with resident mosquito species. Understanding how novel interactions can affect mosquito population dynamics is necessary to predict transmission risk at invasion fronts. Mosquito life-history traits are extremely sensitive to temperature, and this can lead to temperature-dependent competition between competing invasive mosquito species. We explored temperature-dependent competition between Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi, two invasive mosquito species whose distributions overlap in India, the Middle East, and North Africa, where An. stephensi is currently expanding into the endemic range of Ae. aegypti. We followed mosquito cohorts raised at different intraspecific and interspecific densities across five temperatures (16-32°C) to measure traits relevant for population growth and to estimate species' per capita growth rates. We then used these growth rates to derive each species' competitive ability at each temperature. We find strong evidence for asymmetric competition at all temperatures, with Ae. aegypti emerging as the dominant competitor. This was primarily because of differences in larval survival and development times across all temperatures that resulted in a higher estimated intrinsic growth rate and competitive tolerance estimate for Ae. aegypti compared to An. stephensi. The spread of An. stephensi into the African continent could lead to urban transmission of malaria, an otherwise rural disease, increasing the human population at risk and complicating malaria elimination efforts. Competition has resulted in habitat segregation of other invasive mosquito species, and our results suggest that it may play a role in determining the distribution of An. stephensi across its invasive range.

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus and ambient temperature: a critical review

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought unprecedented public health, and social and economic challenges. It remains unclear whether seasonal changes in ambient temperature will alter spreading trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic. The probable mechanism on this is still lacking. This review summarizes the most recent research data on the effect of ambient temperature on the COVID-19 epidemic characteristic. The available data suggest that (i) mesophilic traits of viruses are different due to their molecular composition; (ii) increasing ambient temperature decreases the persistence of some viruses in aquatic media; (iii) a 1°C increase in the average monthly minimum ambient temperatures (AMMAT) was related to a 0.72% fewer mammalian individuals that would be infected by coronavirus; (iv) proportion of zoonotic viruses of mammals including humans is probably related to their body temperature difference; (v) seasonal divergence between the northern and southern hemispheres may be a significant driver in determining a waved trajectory in the next 2 years. Further research is needed to understand its effects and mechanisms of global temperature change so that effective strategies can be adopted to curb its natural effects. This paper mainly explores possible scientific hypothesis and evidences that local communities and authorities should consider to find optimal solutions that can limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Ecological Effects on the Dynamics of West Nile Virus and Avian Plasmodium: The Importance of Mosquito Communities and Landscape

Humans and wildlife are at risk from certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and West Nile and yellow fevers. Factors linked to global change, including habitat alteration, land-use intensification, the spread of alien species, and climate change, are operating on a global scale and affect both the incidence and distribution of many vector-borne diseases. Hence, understanding the drivers that regulate the transmission of pathogens in the wild is of great importance for ecological, evolutionary, health, and economic reasons. In this literature review, we discuss the ecological factors potentially affecting the transmission of two mosquito-borne pathogens circulating naturally between birds and mosquitoes, namely, West Nile virus (WNV) and the avian malaria parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Traditionally, the study of pathogen transmission has focused only on vectors or hosts and the interactions between them, while the role of landscape has largely been ignored. However, from an ecological point of view, it is essential not only to study the interaction between each of these organisms but also to understand the environmental scenarios in which these processes take place. We describe here some of the similarities and differences in the transmission of these two pathogens and how research into both systems may facilitate a greater understanding of the dynamics of vector-borne pathogens in the wild.

Spatial and temporal population dynamics of male and female Aedes albopictus at a local scale in Medellín, Colombia

BACKGROUND

Diseases transmitted by invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes are public health issues in the tropics and subtropics. Understanding the ecology of mosquito vectors is essential for the development of effective disease mitigation programs and will allow for accurate predictions of vector occurrence and abundance. Studies that examine mosquito population dynamics are typically focused on female presence or total adult captures without discriminating the temporal and spatial distribution of both sexes.

METHODS

We collected immature and adult mosquitoes bimonthly for 2 years (2018-2019) in the Medellín Botanical Garden. Collection sites differed in proximity to buildings and nearby vegetation, and were classified by their overhead vegetation cover. We used linear mixed models (LMMs) and Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices (SADIE) to assess the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Using our Ae. albopictus captures exclusively, we assessed (1) the spatial and temporal distribution of males and females using SADIE and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), (2) the relationship between climatic variables/vegetation coverage and adult captures using GLMMs and LMMs, and (3) the correlation of male and female size in relation to climatic variables and vegetation coverage using LMMs.

RESULTS

Spatial analysis showed that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were distributed at different locations within the surveilled area. However, Ae. albopictus was the predominant species in the park during the study period. Adult Ae. albopictus captures were positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity, and inversely correlated with temperature and wind speed. Moreover, we observed a spatial misalignment of Ae. albopictus males and females-the majority of males were located in the high vegetation coverage sites, while females were more evenly distributed. We observed significant associations of the size of our adult Ae. albopictus captures with precipitation, temperature, and wind speed for both sexes and found that overhead vegetation cover influenced male size, but observed no effect on female size.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work elucidates the differential dynamics of Ae. albopictus males and females, which is pivotal to develop accurate surveillance and the successful establishment of vector control programs based on the disruption of insect reproduction.

Hatching pattern and coexistence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Culicidae) in a subtropical city, Argentina, after three decades of coexistence

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are mosquito vectors of numerous arboviruses of sanitary importance. Presently in Argentina, neither Ae. aegypti nor Ae. albopictus, have displaced the other species in the places where they coexist, since the introduction of the latter in 1998. In this study, we evaluated whether these species coexist at different scales (ovitrap, microhabitat and habitat) in the city of Eldorado, Misiones province, northeast Argentina. We also analyzed the seasonal variation and climate variables related to the delay in egg hatching of both species. Mosquitoes were collected weekly, from June 2017 to May 2018, using ovitraps placed in urban areas. We conclude that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus coexist in the study area, at the ovitrap, microhabitat and habitat scales. Furthermore, no pronounced pattern of delayed hatching has been observed for either species; however, eggs of Ae. albopictus laid during colder weeks and less rainfall needed a greater number of immersions to hatch, while for Ae. aegypti those laid during weeks with low rainfall and high temperatures showed the longest delay in hatching response.

Differential inhibition of egg hatching in Aedes aegypti populations from localities with different winter conditions

In Argentina, the mosquito Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is distributed from subtropical to temperate climates. Here, we hypothesized that the expansion of Ae. aegypti into colder regions is favoured by high-phenotypic plasticity and an adaptive inhibition of egg hatching at low temperatures. Thus, we investigated the hatching response of eggs of three populations: one from a subtropical region (Resistencia) and two from temperate regions (Buenos Aires City and San Bernardo) of Argentina. Eggs collected in the field were raised in three experimental colonies. F1 eggs were acclimated for 7 days prior to immersion at 7.6 or 22°C (control eggs). Five immersion temperatures were tested: 7.6, 10.3, 11.8, 14.1 and 16°C (range of mean winter temperatures of the three localities). A second immersion at 22°C was performed 2 weeks later to assess the inhibition to hatch under favourable conditions. After the first immersion, we compared the proportions of hatched eggs and dead larvae among treatment levels, whereas after the second immersion we compared the hatching response among the three populations. The factors that most influenced the egg hatching response were the geographical origin of the populations and the immersion temperature, but not the acclimation temperature. The proportions of hatching and larval mortality at low temperatures were higher for Resistencia than for Buenos Aires and San Bernardo, whereas the hatching response at ambient temperature was lower for San Bernardo than for Buenos Aires and Resistencia. The results support the hypothesis that populations from colder regions show an adaptive inhibition of egg hatching.

Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.

Zika and dengue incidence in the Americas declined in 2017–2018, but dengue resurged in 2019 in Brazil. This study uses epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to show that the decline of dengue may be explained by protective immunity from pre-exposure to ZIKV and/or DENV in prior years.

Global patterns of aegyptism without arbovirus

The world's most important mosquito vector of viruses, Aedes aegypti, is found around the world in tropical, subtropical and even some temperate locations. While climate change may limit populations of Ae. aegypti in some regions, increasing temperatures will likely expand its territory thus increasing risk of human exposure to arboviruses in places like Europe, Northern Australia and North America, among many others. Most studies of Ae. aegypti biology and virus transmission focus on locations with high endemicity or severe outbreaks of human amplified urban arboviruses, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, but rarely on areas at the margins of endemicity. The objective in this study is to explore previously published global patterns in the environmental suitability for Ae. aegypti and dengue virus to reveal deviations in the probability of the vector and human disease occurring. We developed a map showing one end of the gradient being higher suitability of Ae. aegypti with low suitability of dengue and the other end of the spectrum being equal and higher environmental suitability for both Ae. aegypti and dengue. The regions of the world with Ae. aegypti environmental suitability and no endemic dengue transmission exhibits a phenomenon we term 'aegyptism without arbovirus'. We then tested what environmental and socioeconomic variables influence this deviation map revealing a significant association with human population density, suggesting that locations with lower human population density were more likely to have a higher probability of aegyptism without arbovirus. Characterizing regions of the world with established populations of Ae. aegypti but little to no autochthonous transmission of human-amplified arboviruses is an important step in understanding and achieving aegyptism without arbovirus.

The genomic signal of local environmental adaptation in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Local adaptation is important when predicting arthropod-borne disease risk because of its impacts on vector population fitness and persistence. However, the extent that vector populations are adapted to the environment generally remains unknown. Despite low population structure and high gene flow in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes across Panama, excepting the province of Bocas del Toro, we identified 128 candidate SNPs, clustered within 17 genes, which show a strong genomic signal of local environmental adaptation. This putatively adaptive variation occurred across fine geographical scales with the composition and frequency of candidate adaptive loci differing between populations in wet tropical environments along the Caribbean coast and dry tropical conditions typical of the Pacific coast. Temperature and vegetation were important predictors of adaptive genomic variation in Ae. aegypti with several potential areas of local adaptation identified. Our study lays the foundations of future work to understand whether environmental adaptation in Ae. aegypti impacts the arboviral disease landscape and whether this could either aid or hinder efforts of population control.

Yellow fever in Asia-a risk analysis

BACKGROUND

There is concern about the risk of yellow fever (YF) establishment in Asia, owing to rising numbers of urban outbreaks in endemic countries and globalisation. Following an outbreak in Angola in 2016, YF cases were introduced into China. Prior to this, YF had never been recorded in Asia, despite climatic suitability and the presence of mosquitoes. An outbreak in Asia could result in widespread fatalities and huge economic impact. Therefore, quantifying the potential risk of YF outbreaks in Asia is a public health priority.

METHODS

Using international flight data and YF incidence estimates from 2016, we quantified the risk of YF introduction via air travel into Asia. In locations with evidence of a competent mosquito population, the potential for autochthonous YF transmission was estimated using a temperature-dependent model of the reproduction number and a branching process model assuming a negative binomial distribution.

RESULTS

In total, 25 cities across Asia were estimated to be at risk of receiving at least one YF viraemic traveller during 2016. At their average temperatures, we estimated the probability of autochthonous transmission to be <50% in all cities, which was primarily due to the limited number of estimated introductions that year.

CONCLUSION

Despite the rise in air travel, we found low support for travel patterns between YF endemic countries and Asia resulting in autochthonous transmission during 2016. This supports the historic absence of YF in Asia and suggests it could be due to a limited number of introductions in previous years. Future increases in travel volumes or YF incidence can increase the number of introductions and the risk of autochthonous transmission. Given the high proportion of asymptomatic or mild infections and the challenges of YF surveillance, our model can be used to estimate the introduction and outbreak risk and can provide useful information to surveillance systems.

Systematic review: the impact of socioeconomic factors on Aedes aegypti mosquito distribution in the mainland United States

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are primary vectors of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika viruses. Ae. aegypti is highly anthropophilic and relies nearly exclusively on human blood meals and habitats for reproduction. Socioeconomic factors may be associated with the spread of Ae. aegypti due to their close relationship with humans. This paper describes and summarizes the published literature on the association between socioeconomic variables and the distribution of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in the mainland United States. A comprehensive search of PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, and EBSCO Academic Search Complete through June 12, 2019 was used to retrieve all articles published in English on the association of socioeconomic factors and the distribution of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Additionally, a hand search of mosquito control association websites was conducted in an attempt to identify relevant grey literature. Articles were screened for eligibility using the process described in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Initially, 3,493 articles were identified through the database searches and previously known literature. After checking for duplicates, 2,145 articles remained. 570 additional records were identified through the grey literature search for a total of 2,715 articles. These articles were screened for eligibility using their titles and abstracts, and 2,677 articles were excluded for not meeting the eligibility criteria. Finally, the full text for each of the remaining articles (n=38) was read to determine eligibility. Through this screening process, 11 articles were identified for inclusion in this review. The findings for these 11 studies revealed inconsistent relationships between the studied socioeconomic factors and the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti. The findings of this review suggest a gap in the literature and understanding of the association between anthropogenic factors and the distribution of Ae. aegypti that could hinder efforts to implement effective public health prevention and control strategies should a disease outbreak occur.

The global burden of yellow fever

Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data, we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000–173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000–82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%–77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.

American Mammals Susceptibility to Dengue According to Geographical, Environmental, and Phylogenetic Distances

Many human emergent and re-emergent diseases have a sylvatic cycle. Yet, little effort has been put into discovering and modeling the wild mammal reservoirs of dengue (DENV), particularly in the Americas. Here, we show a species-level susceptibility prediction to dengue of wild mammals in the Americas as a function of the three most important biodiversity dimensions (ecological, geographical, and phylogenetic spaces), using machine learning protocols. Model predictions showed that different species of bats would be highly susceptible to DENV infections, where susceptibility mostly depended on phylogenetic relationships among hosts and their environmental requirement. Mammal species predicted as highly susceptible coincide with sets of species that have been reported infected in field studies, but it also suggests other species that have not been previously considered or that have been captured in low numbers. Also, the environment (i.e., the distance between the species' optima in bioclimatic dimensions) in combination with geographic and phylogenetic distance is highly relevant in predicting susceptibility to DENV in wild mammals. Our results agree with previous modeling efforts indicating that temperature is an important factor determining DENV transmission, and provide novel insights regarding other relevant factors and the importance of considering wild reservoirs. This modeling framework will aid in the identification of potential DENV reservoirs for future surveillance efforts.

Assessing the suitability for Aedes albopictus and dengue transmission risk in China with a delay differential equation model

Dengue is considered non-endemic to mainland China. However, travellers frequently import the virus from overseas and local mosquito species can then spread the disease in the population. As a consequence, mainland China still experiences large dengue outbreaks. Temperature plays a key role in these outbreaks: it affects the development and survival of the vector and the replication rate of the virus. To better understand its implication in the transmission risk of dengue, we developed a delay differential equation model that explicitly simulates temperature-dependent development periods and tested it with collected field data for the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. The model predicts mosquito occurrence locations with a high accuracy (Cohen's κ of 0.78) and realistically replicates mosquito population dynamics. Analysing the infection dynamics during the 2014 dengue outbreak that occurred in Guangzhou showed that the outbreak could have lasted for another four weeks if mosquito control interventions had not been undertaken. Finally, we analyse the dengue transmission risk in mainland China. We find that southern China, including Guangzhou, can have more than seven months of dengue transmission per year while even Beijing, in the temperate north, can have dengue transmission during hot summer months. The results demonstrate the importance of using detailed vector and infection ecology, especially when vector-borne disease transmission risk is modelled over a broad range of climatic zones.

Modelling distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus using climate, host density and interspecies competition

Florida faces the challenge of repeated introduction and autochthonous transmission of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Empirically-based predictive models of the spatial distribution of these species would aid surveillance and vector control efforts. To predict the occurrence and abundance of these species, we fit a mixed-effects zero-inflated negative binomial regression to a mosquito surveillance dataset with records from more than 200,000 trap days, representative of 53% of the land area and ranging from 2004 to 2018 in Florida. We found an asymmetrical competitive interaction between adult populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus for the sampled sites. Wind speed was negatively associated with the occurrence and abundance of both vectors. Our model predictions show high accuracy (72.9% to 94.5%) in validation tests leaving out a random 10% subset of sites and data since 2017, suggesting a potential for predicting the distribution of the two Aedes vectors.

Characterising West Nile virus epidemiology in Israel using a transmission suitability index

Background

Climate is a major factor in the epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV), a pathogen increasingly pervasive worldwide. Cases increased during 2018 in Israel, the United States and Europe.

Aim

We set to retrospectively understand the spatial and temporal determinants of WNV transmission in Israel, as a case study for the possible effects of climate on virus spread.

Methods

We employed a suitability index to WNV, parameterising it with prior knowledge pertaining to a bird reservoir and Culex species, using local time series of temperature and humidity as inputs. The predicted suitability index was compared with confirmed WNV cases in Israel (2016–2018).

Results

The suitability index was highly associated with WNV cases in Israel, with correlation coefficients of 0.91 (p value = 4 × 10^− 5), 0.68 (p = 0.016) and 0.9 (p = 2 × 10^− 4) in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. The fluctuations in the number of WNV cases between the years were explained by higher area under the index curve. A new WNV seasonal mode was identified in the south-east of Israel, along the Great Rift Valley, characterised by two yearly peaks (spring and autumn), distinct from the already known single summer peak in the rest of Israel.

Conclusions

By producing a detailed geotemporal estimate of transmission potential and its determinants in Israel, our study promotes a better understanding of WNV epidemiology and has the potential to inform future public health responses. The proposed approach further provides opportunities for retrospective and prospective mechanistic modelling of WNV epidemiology and its associated climatic drivers.

Mosquito-Borne Viruses and Non-Human Vertebrates in Australia: A Review

Mosquito-borne viruses are well recognized as a global public health burden amongst humans, but the effects on non-human vertebrates is rarely reported. Australia, houses a number of endemic mosquito-borne viruses, such as Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, and Murray Valley encephalitis virus. In this review, we synthesize the current state of mosquito-borne viruses impacting non-human vertebrates in Australia, including diseases that could be introduced due to local mosquito distribution. Given the unique island biogeography of Australia and the endemism of vertebrate species (including macropods and monotremes), Australia is highly susceptible to foreign mosquito species becoming established, and mosquito-borne viruses becoming endemic alongside novel reservoirs. For each virus, we summarize the known geographic distribution, mosquito vectors, vertebrate hosts, clinical signs and treatments, and highlight the importance of including non-human vertebrates in the assessment of future disease outbreaks. The mosquito-borne viruses discussed can impact wildlife, livestock, and companion animals, causing significant changes to Australian ecology and economy. The complex nature of mosquito-borne disease, and challenges in assessing the impacts to non-human vertebrate species, makes this an important topic to periodically review.

Infertility and fecundity loss of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti hatched from quiescent eggs is expected to alter invasion dynamics

The endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia shows viral blocking in its mosquito host, leading to its use in arboviral disease control. Releases with Wolbachia strains wMel and wAlbB infecting Aedes aegypti have taken place in several countries. Mosquito egg survival is a key factor influencing population persistence and this trait is also important when eggs are stored prior to releases. We therefore tested the viability of mosquitoes derived from Wolbachia wMel and wAlbB-infected as well as uninfected eggs after long-term storage under diurnal temperature cycles of 11-19°C and 22-30°C. Eggs stored at 11-19°C had higher hatch proportions than those stored at 22-30°C. Adult Wolbachia density declined when they emerged from eggs stored for longer, which was associated with incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) when wMel-infected males were crossed with uninfected females. Females from stored eggs at both temperatures continued to show perfect maternal transmission of Wolbachia, but storage reduced the fecundity of both wMel and wAlbB-infected females relative to uninfected mosquitoes. Furthermore, we found a very strong negative impact of the wAlbB infection on the fertility of females stored at 22-30°C, with almost 80% of females hatching after 11 weeks of storage being infertile. Our findings provide guidance for storing Wolbachia-infected A. aegypti eggs to ensure high fitness adult mosquitoes for release. Importantly, they also highlight the likely impact of egg quiescence on the population dynamics of Wolbachia-infected populations in the field, and the potential for Wolbachia to suppress mosquito populations through cumulative fitness costs across warm and dry periods, with expected effects on dengue transmission.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the main dengue vector populations in Singapore

BACKGROUND

Despite the licensure of the world's first dengue vaccine and the current development of additional vaccine candidates, successful Aedes control remains critical to the reduction of dengue virus transmission. To date, there is still limited literature that attempts to explain the spatio-temporal population dynamics of Aedes mosquitoes within a single city, which hinders the development of more effective citywide vector control strategies. Narrowing this knowledge gap requires consistent and longitudinal measurement of Aedes abundance across the city as well as examination of relationships between variables on a much finer scale.

METHODS

We utilized a high-resolution longitudinal dataset generated from Singapore's islandwide Gravitrap surveillance system over a 2-year period and built a Bayesian hierarchical model to explain the spatio-temporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to a wide range of environmental and anthropogenic variables. We also created a baseline during our model assessment to serve as a benchmark to be compared with the model's out-of-sample prediction/forecast accuracy as measured by the mean absolute error.

RESULTS

For both Aedes species, building age and nearby managed vegetation cover were found to have a significant positive association with the mean mosquito abundance, with the former being the strongest predictor. We also observed substantial evidence of a nonlinear effect of weekly maximum temperature on the Aedes abundance. Our models generally yielded modest but statistically significant reductions in the out-of-sample prediction/forecast error relative to the baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that public residential estates with older buildings and more nearby managed vegetation should be prioritized for vector control inspections and community advocacy to reduce the abundance of Aedes mosquitoes and the risk of dengue transmission.

Delayed mortality effects of cold fronts during the winter season on Aedes aegypti in a temperate region

The expansion of the invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) towards temperate regions in the Americas is causing concern because of its public health implications. As for other insects, the distribution limits of Ae. aegypti have been suggested to be related to minimum temperatures and to be controlled mainly by cold tolerance. The aim of this study was to assess the daily mortality of immature stages of Ae. aegypti under natural winter conditions in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in relation to preceding thermal conditions. The experiment was performed outdoors, and one cohort of larvae was started each week for 16 weeks, and reared up to the emergence of the adults. Three times a week, larvae, pupae and emerged adults were counted, and these data were used to calculate the daily mortality of larvae, pupae and adults and to analyze their relationship with thermal conditions. The results showed that mortality was generally low, with a few peaks of high mortality after cold front events. The mortality of pupae and larvae showed a higher correlation with the cooling degree hours of previous days than with the minimum, maximum or mean temperatures. Pupae and adults showed to be more vulnerable to low temperatures than larvae. A delay in mortality was observed in relation to the low temperature events, with a proportion of individuals dying in a later stage after the end of the cold front. These results suggest that thermal conditions during cold fronts in Buenos Aires are close to the tolerance limit of the local Ae. aegypti population. The wide range of responses of different individuals suggests that low winter temperatures may constitute a selective force, leading the population to a higher tolerance to low temperatures, which might favor the further expansion of this species towards colder regions.

Influence of Temperature on the Life-Cycle Dynamics of Aedes albopictus Population Established at Temperate Latitudes: A Laboratory Experiment

Simple Summary

Mosquitoes represent a potential major public health concern, as they are capable of transmitting several pathogens when biting humans. It is well known that temperature is a crucial factor affecting mosquito biology: for instance, warmer conditions can increase survival and fecundity. Here, we quantify the influence of different temperatures on the bionomics of Aedes albopictus, which is a mosquito species native to Southeast Asia that has been able to spread worldwide during the last forty years. We used specimens collected from northern Italy to assess if temperate individuals are characterized, possibly thanks to an adaptation process, by a different thermal response with respect to subtropical individuals. We found that immature stages are well adapted to colder temperatures, which nonetheless seem to prevent any blood-feeding activity. Adult longevity and fecundity were substantially greater at mild conditions. This thermal adaptation might increase the length of the breeding season and could allow the colonization of areas at higher altitude, resulting in an overall increased risk for potential transmission of Ae. albopictus-borne pathogens.

Abstract

The mosquito species Aedes albopictus has successfully colonized many areas at temperate latitudes, representing a major public health concern. As mosquito bionomics is critically affected by temperature, we experimentally investigated the influence of different constant rearing temperatures (10, 15, 25, and 30 °C) on the survival rates, fecundity, and developmental times of different life stages of Ae. albopictus using a laboratory colony established from specimens collected in northern Italy. We compared our results with previously published data obtained with subtropical populations. We found that temperate Ae. albopictus immature stages are better adapted to colder temperatures: temperate larvae were able to develop even at 10 °C and at 15 °C, larval survivorship was comparable to the one observed at warmer conditions. Nonetheless, at these lower temperatures, we did not observe any blood-feeding activity. Adult longevity and fecundity were substantially greater at 25 °C with respect to the other tested temperatures. Our findings highlight the ability of Ae. albopictus to quickly adapt to colder environments and provide new important insights on the bionomics of this species at temperate latitudes.

The 2014 autochthonous dengue fever outbreak in Tokyo: A case series study and assessment of the causes and preventive measures

Objective

In 2014, an autochthonous dengue fever outbreak occurred around the Yoyogi Park in Japan for the first time in 70 years. Despite no local cases reported since then, the risk of another outbreak remains high. This study reviews the autochthonous dengue fever cases of the outbreak, investigates its causes, and delineates preventive measures against autochthonous dengue epidemics.

Methods

We conducted a case series study of 15 patients who visited our institution during the 2014 outbreak. We collected and evaluated data on the surveillance of vector mosquitoes, weather, pest control, travelers’ origins and destinations, and imported dengue fever cases using reports made by public institutions.

Results

All patients recovered with supportive treatments and none met the diagnostic criteria for severe dengue infection. Twelve patients with positive real-time polymerase chain reactions were confirmed as having dengue virus-1 infections. We found no obvious associations between the number of mosquitoes and the weather, or between the number of imported dengue fever cases and that of travelers. Insect growth regulator (IGR) against vector mosquitoes has been used since 2014 for pest control, but the number of larvae has not declined in the Yoyogi Park, although that of imagoes has been relatively suppressed.

Conclusion

The 2014 outbreak emerged without particularly favorable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes. We found no obvious associations between the number of travelers or the imported dengue fever cases and the outbreak, but the increasing number of travelers may contribute to another outbreak. Pest control, including IGR, remains essential for infection control.

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We studied 15 patients with autochthonous dengue fever during a local outbreak.

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This outbreak emerged without favorable climate conditions for mosquitoes.

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There were no increased number of travelers or imported dengue cases.

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Pest control using insect growth regulator can be effective for infection control.

A Comprehensive Study of Dengue Epidemics and Persistence of Anti-Dengue Virus Antibodies in District Swat, Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is one of the most common human arbovirus infections worldwide. In Pakistan, dengue initially became endemic in the big cities and then expanded to remote areas of the country. The current study reports the dengue epidemics, anti-DENV antibodies prevalence during the active and post-dengue infection, risk factors, disease symptoms, and spotting dengue infection densities in district Swat of Pakistan.

METHODS

Clinical signs and demographic data of dengue suspected individuals were collected at the time of screening through non-structural protein-1 antigen detection test during 2013-2015. Moreover, selected dengue confirmed individuals were screened for the presence of anti-dengue immunoglobulin (Ig) M and G during the active infection period and post-dengue infection.

RESULTS

A total of 8,770 individuals were infected with dengue in 2013 with 36 (0.41%) case fatalities, 307 in 2014 with no case fatality, and 13 in 2015 with no case fatality. The number of male and female cases were 6,139 and 2,631 in 2013, 183 and 124 in 2014, and only 10 and 3 in 2015, respectively. Among all the localities, Tehsil Babozai, an urban setting, reported the highest number of dengue patients during all the study years, that is, 7,673 (87.49% of the total cases) in 2013, 294 (95.76% of the total cases) in 2014, and 13 (100% cases) in 2015. Among 6 age groups, 21-30 years was found to be highly infected in 2013 (37.13% of all cases) and 2014 (33.55%). Furthermore, 1,231 (21.94% of all cases) had IgM antibodies and 71 (1.26%) had IgG antibodies in 2013, 78 (26% of all cases) had IgM antibodies and 7 (2.33%) had IgG antibodies in 2014, and only 4 (30.76%) patients had IgM and 0 (0%) had IgG antibodies in 2015. Furthermore, urban areas had the highest infection density in district Swat. The majority of the patients in rural areas had a traveling history to the urban areas before their illness.

CONCLUSION

To sum up, male gender, young individuals, and those living in urban areas were at the greater risk of dengue infection.

Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas

Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency of asymptomatic infection and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries to estimate subnational reporting probabilities and infection attack rates (IARs). Zika IAR estimates ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214–0.514) in Ecuador, with significant subnational variability in every country. Totaling infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas had been infected by the end of 2018. These estimates represent the most extensive attempt to determine the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas, offering a baseline for assessing the risk of future Zika epidemics in this region.

During the recent Zika epidemic in the Americas millions of people were likely infected, but the true size of the epidemic is unknown because of gaps in the surveillance system. The infection attack rate (IAR)—defined as the proportion of the population that was infected over the course of the epidemic—has important implications for the longer-term epidemiology of Zika in the region, such as the timing, location, and likelihood of future outbreaks. To estimate the IAR and the total number of people infected, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries and territories where subnational data were publicly available. Datasets included confirmed and suspected Zika cases in pregnant women and in the total population, Zika-associated Guillan-Barré syndrome cases, and cases of congenital Zika syndrome. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors that leveraged the different case report types to simultaneously estimate national and subnational reporting probabilities, the fraction of symptomatic infections, and subnational IARs. In these 15 countries and territories, estimates of Zika IAR ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214–0.514) in Ecuador. Totaling these infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories in the region, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas were infected with ZIKV by the end of 2018.

The Role of Temperature in Shaping Mosquito-Borne Viruses Transmission

Mosquito-borne diseases having the greatest impact on human health are typically prevalent in the tropical belt of the world. However, these diseases are conquering temperate regions, raising the question of the role of temperature on their dynamics and expansion. Temperature is one of the most significant abiotic factors affecting, in many ways, insect vectors and the pathogens they transmit. Here, we debate the veracity of this claim by synthesizing current knowledge on the effects of temperature on arboviruses and their vectors, as well as the outcome of their interactions.

Heterogeneity of dengue transmission in an endemic area of Colombia

Population based serological surveys are the gold-standard to quantify dengue (DENV) transmission. The purpose of this study was to estimate the age-specific seroprevalence and the force of infection of DENV in an endemic area of Colombia. Between July and October 2014, we conducted a household based cross-sectional survey among 1.037 individuals aged 2 to 40 years living in 40 randomly selected locations in urban Piedecuesta, Santander, Colombia. In addition, we also enrolled 246 indviduals living in rural "veredas". Participants were asked to answer a questionnaire that included demographic, socioeconomic and environmental questions and to provide a 5 ml blood sample. Sera were tested using the IgG indirect ELISA (Panbio) kit to determine past DENV infection. The overall DENV seroprevalence was 70% (95% CI = 67%-71%), but was significantly higher in urban (81%, 95% CI = 78%-83%) as compared to rural (21%, 95% CI = 17%-27%) locations. Age was a major predictor of seropositivity, consistent with endemic circulation of the virus. Using catalytic models we estimated that on average, 12% (95%CI = 11%-13%) of susceptible individuals living in the city are infected by DENV each year. Beyond age, the only predictor of seropositivity in urban locations was prior history of dengue diagnosed by a physician (aPR 1.15, 95% CI = 0.98-1.35). Among participants living in rural settings, those that reported traveling outside of their vereda were more likely to be seropositive (aPR 3.60, 95%CI = 1.54-8.42) as well as those who were born outside of Santander department (aPR = 2.77, 95%CI = 1.20-6.37). These results are consistent with long term endemic circulation of DENV in Piedecuesta, with large heterogeneities between urban and rural areas located just a few kilometers apart. Design of DENV control interventions, including vaccination, will need to consider this fine scale spatial heterogeneity.

Using the intrinsic growth rate of the mosquito population improves spatio-temporal dengue risk estimation

Understanding geographic population dynamics of mosquitoes is an essential requirement for estimating the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission and geographically targeted interventions. However, the use of population dynamics measures, such as the intrinsic growth rate, as predictors in spatio-temporal point processes has not been investigated before. In this work we compared the predictive accuracy of four spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox models: (i) With no predictors; (ii) mosquito abundance as predictor; (iii) intrinsic growth rate as predictor; (iv) intrinsic growth rate and mosquito abundance as predictors. This analysis is based on Aedes aegypti mosquito surveillance and human dengue data obtained from the urban area of Caratinga, Brazil. We used a statistical Moran Curve approach to estimate the intrinsic growth rate and a zero inflated Poisson kriging model for estimating mosquito abundance at locations of dengue cases. The incidence of dengue cases was positively associated with mosquito intrinsic growth rate and this model outperformed, in terms of predictive accuracy, the abundance and the null models. The latter includes only the spatio-temporal random effect but no predictors. In the light of these results we suggest that the intrinsic growth rate should be investigated further as a potential tool for predicting the risk of dengue transmission and targeting health interventions for vector-borne diseases.

The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa

Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have substantial effects on the transmission of YF and we present the first analysis of the potential impact on disease burden. We extend an existing model of YF transmission to account for rainfall and a temperature suitability index and project transmission intensity across the African endemic region in the context of four climate change scenarios. We use these transmission projections to assess the change in burden in 2050 and 2070. We find disease burden changes heterogeneously across the region. In the least severe scenario, we find a 93.0%[95%CI(92.7, 93.2%)] chance that annual deaths will increase in 2050. This change in epidemiology will complicate future control efforts. Thus, we may need to consider the effect of changing climatic variables on future intervention strategies.

Comparing different spatio-temporal modeling methods in dengue fever data analysis in Colombia during 2012-2015

In this paper, we compare a variety of spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive models to a dengue fever dataset in Colombia, and incorporate an innovative data transformation method in the data analysis. In order to gain a better understanding on the effects of different niche variables in the epidemiological process, we explore Poisson-lognormal and binomial models with different Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling methods in this paper. Our results show that the selected model can well capture the variations of the data. The population density, elevation, daytime and night land surface temperatures are among the contributory variables to identify potential dengue outbreak regions; precipitation and vegetation variables are not significant in the selected spatio-temporal mixed effects model. The generated dengue fever probability maps from the model show a geographic distribution of risk that apparently coincides with the elevation gradient. The results in the paper provide the most benefits for future work in dengue studies.

How climate change affects parasites: the case of trematode parasite Clinostomum complanatum and its fish host Trichogaster fasiatus

This study was undertaken to understand the impact of climate change on the ecology of infection of Clinostomum complanatum, a model trematode parasite. We analysed climate change data and data from infected fish over a period of seven years (2007-2013) from the Aligarh region (India) in this retrospective study. We show that infection of the trematode parasite Clinostomum complanatum (Rudolphi, 1814) in the forage fish Trichogaster facsiatus (Bloch & Schneider, 1801) is dependent on surface air temperature amongst the (ecologically) relevant climate change variables for both the parasite and its host. This study is the first to implicate surface air temperature as an environmental variable that may contribute towards parasitism, particularly for parasites with a piscine host. The biological relevance of changing climate on the ecology of this parasite is discussed.

Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka

The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically driven disease transmission framework for dengue virus using spatially resolved temperature and precipitation data as well as the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. From this framework, we first demonstrate that the distinct climatological patterns encountered across the island play an important role in establishing the typical yearly temporal dynamics of dengue, but alone are unable to account for the epidemic case numbers observed in Sri Lanka during 2017. Using a simplified two-strain SIR model, we demonstrate that the re-introduction of a dengue virus serotype that had been largely absent from the island in previous years may have played an important role in driving the epidemic, and provide a discussion of the possible roles for extreme weather events and human mobility patterns on the outbreak dynamics. Lastly, we provide estimates for the future burden of dengue across Sri Lanka using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 climate projections. Critically, we demonstrate that climatological and serological factors can act synergistically to yield greater projected case numbers than would be expected from the presence of a single driver alone. Altogether, this work provides a holistic framework for teasing apart and analysing the various complex drivers of vector-borne disease outbreak dynamics.

Incidence and epidemiological features of dengue in Sabah, Malaysia

In South East Asia, dengue epidemics have increased in size and geographical distribution in recent years. We examined the spatiotemporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of reported dengue cases in the predominantly rural state of Sabah, in Malaysian Borneo-an area where sylvatic and urban circulation of pathogens are known to intersect. Using a public health data set of routinely notified dengue cases in Sabah between 2010 and 2016, we described demographic and entomological risk factors, both before and after a 2014 change in the clinical case definition for the disease. Annual dengue incidence rates were spatially variable over the 7-year study period from 2010-2016 (state-wide mean annual incidence of 21 cases/100,000 people; range 5-42/100,000), but were highest in rural localities in the western districts of the state (Kuala Penyu, Nabawan, Tenom and Kota Marudu). Eastern districts exhibited lower overall dengue rates, although a high proportion of severe (haemorrhagic) dengue cases (44%) were focused in Sandakan and Tawau. Dengue incidence was highest for those aged between 10 and 29 years (24/100,000), and was slightly higher for males compared to females. Available vector surveillance data indicated that during large outbreaks in 2015 and 2016 the mosquito Aedes albopictus was more prevalent in both urban and rural households (House Index of 64%) than Ae. aegypti (15%). Demographic patterns remained unchanged both before and after the dengue case definition was changed; however, in the years following the change, reported case numbers increased substantially. Overall, these findings suggest that dengue outbreaks in Sabah are increasing in both urban and rural settings. Future studies to better understand the drivers of risk in specific age groups, genders and geographic locations, and to test the potential role of Ae. albopictus in transmission, may help target dengue prevention and control efforts.

Current and Projected Distributions of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Canada and the U.S

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are mosquito vectors of more than 22 arboviruses that infect humans.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to develop regional ecological niche models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the conterminous United States and Canada with current observed and simulated climate and land-use data using boosted regression trees (BRTs).

METHODS

We used BRTs to assess climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in Canada and the United States under current and future projected climates.

RESULTS

Models for both species were mostly influenced by minimum daily temperature and demonstrated high accuracy for predicting their geographic ranges under the current climate. The northward range expansion of suitable niches for both species was projected under future climate models. Much of the United States and parts of southern Canada are projected to be suitable for both species by 2100, with Ae. albopictus projected to expand its range north earlier this century and further north than Ae. aegypti.

DISCUSSION

Our projections suggest that the suitable ecological niche for Aedes will expand with climate change in Canada and the United States, thus increasing the risk of Aedes-transmitted arboviruses. Increased surveillance for these vectors and the pathogens they carry would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5899.

The Asian tiger mosquito in Brazil: Observations on biology and ecological interactions since its first detection in 1986

Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus is a mosquito originating from the Asian continent, which was detected in the Americas in 1985 and Brazil in 1986. Due to its rapid expansion throughout Brazil, this species has already been reported in 26 of the 27 federative units of Brazil. In this review, we evaluate some of the biological, epidemiological and ecological characteristics of Ae. albopictus through critical analysis of their importance in the pathogen transmission dynamics, since its first record in the country. We show that immature forms of this species are frequently found in artificial breeding sites whereas females exhibit anthropophilic behavior despite its eclecticism on blood feeding. In addition, Ae. albopictus shows advantages in interspecific competition with Ae. aegypti for both immature and adult stages. Taking together, these aspects as well as its vector competence indicate that Ae. albopictus could act as a bridge vector between sylvatic and urban pathogen transmission cycles. We conclude by pointing to the need of continuous surveillance of Ae. albopictus in Brazil and raise several questions that still need to be answered.

Semi-field life-table studies of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Guangzhou, China

Background

Aedes albopictus is a major vector for several tropical infectious diseases. Characterization of Ae. albopictus development under natural conditions is crucial for monitoring vector population expansion, dengue virus transmission, and disease outbreak preparedness.

Methods

This study employed mosquito traits as a proxy to understanding life-table traits in mosquitoes using a semi–field study. Ae. albopictus larval and adult life-table experiments were conducted using microcosms under semi-field conditions in Guangzhou. Stage-specific development times and survivorship rates were determined and compared under semi-field conditions in different seasons from early summer (June) to winter (January), to determine the lower temperature limit for larval development and adult survivorship and reproductivity.

Results

The average egg- hatching rate was 60.1%, with the highest recorded in October (77.1%; mid-autumn). The larval development time was on average 13.2 days (range, 8.5–24.1 days), with the shortest time observed in September(8.7 days; early autumn) and longest in November (22.8 days). The pupation rates of Ae. albopictus larvae were on average 88.9% (range, 81.6–93.4%); they were stable from June to September but decreased from October to November. The adult emergence rates were on average 82.5% (range, 76.8–87.9%) and decreased from July to November. The median survival time of Ae. albopictus adults was on average 7.4 (range, 4.5–9.8), with the shortest time recorded in September. The average lifetime egg mass under semi-field conditions was 37.84 eggs/female. The larvae could develop into adults at temperatures as low as 12.3°C, and the adults could survive for 30.0 days at 16.3°C and still produce eggs. Overall, correlation analysis found that mean temperature and relative humidity were variables significantly affecting larval development and adult survivorship.

Conclusion

Ae. albopictus larvae could develop and emerge and the adults could survive and produce eggs in early winter in Guangzhou. The major impact of changes in ambient temperature, relative humidity, and light intensity was on the egg hatching rates, adult survival time, and egg mass production, rather than on pupation or adult emergence rates.

Epidemiological scenario of dengue in the state of Manipur during the last 3 years

Background

The study of disease transmission of dengue fever (DF) is perplexing in the Indian subcontinent as all the four serotypes are circling. Also, there is no efficient epidemiological examination done on dengue cases in Manipur, a north-eastern territory of India.

Method

We utilized the dengue information extricated from the lab register of Viral Research and Diagnostic Laboratory (VRDL) from 2016 to 2018. All presumed outpatient and inpatients dengue cases from open and private health-care facilities are incorporated into the VRDL database whose informed consent were gotten.

Results

A sum of 1689 instances of associated patients with dengue infection was tried for dengue ELISA test and 272 (16.10%) samples were seen as seropositive. The month-wise conveyance of dengue cases is very intriguing as the three years of study demonstrates a variation design in perception. In all the three years dengue seropositive cases were seen higher in the male populace. Be that as it may, there is no noteworthy incentive to the inspiration of dengue seropositive towards male than female.

Conclusion

Our examination exhibits a comparative epidemiological investigation on seroprevelance of dengue in the province of Manipur for three years. This is an endeavour to show epidemiological dengue seroprevelance in the territory of Manipur which in future would be a reference from general wellbeing worries for making up essential move intend to shorten the spread of dengue.

Development and calibration of a model for the potential establishment and impact of Aedes albopictus in Europe

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the most invasive disease vectors worldwide. The species is a competent vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika viruses and other severe parasites and pathogens threatening human health. The capacity of this mosquito to colonize and establish in new areas (including temperate regions) is enhanced by its ability of producing diapausing eggs that survive relatively cold winters. The main drivers of population dynamics for this mosquito are water and air temperature and photoperiod. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model that predicts the potential distribution, abundance and activity of Asian tiger mosquito in Europe. The model includes a comprehensive description of: i) the individual life-history strategies, including diapause, ii) the influence of weather-driven individual physiological responses on population dynamics and iii) the density-dependent regulation of larval mortality rate. The model is calibrated using field data from several locations along an altitudinal gradient in the Italian Alps, which enabled accurate prediction of cold temperature effects on population abundance, including identification of conditions that prevent overwintering of the species. Model predictions are consistent with the most updated information on species' presence and absence. Predicted population abundance shows a clear south-north decreasing gradient. A similar yet less evident pattern in the activity of the species is also predicted. The model represents a valuable tool for the development of strategies aimed at the management of Ae. albopictus and for the implementation of effective control measures against vector-borne diseases in Europe.

Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses

Climate change is leading to increases in global temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns, both of which are contributing to the expansion of mosquito-borne arboviruses and the populations of the mosquitos that vector them. Herein, we review recent evidence of emergence and expansion of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitos that has been driven in part by environmental changes. We present as a case study of recent work from Córdoba, Argentina, where dengue has been actively emerging in the past decade. We review recent empirical and modeling studies that aim to understand the impact of climate on future expansion of arboviruses, and we highlight gaps in empirical studies linking climate to arbovirus transmission at regional levels.

The Global Expansion of Dengue: How Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes Enabled the First Pandemic Arbovirus

Dengue is an emerging viral disease principally transmitted by the Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti mosquito. It is one of the fastest-growing global infectious diseases, with 100-400 million new infections a year, and is now entrenched in a growing number of tropical megacities. Behind this rapid rise is the simple adaptation of Ae. aegypti to a new entomological niche carved out by human habitation. This review describes the expansion of dengue and explores how key changes in the ecology of Ae. aegypti allowed it to become a successful invasive species and highly efficient disease vector. We argue that characterizing geographic heterogeneity in mosquito bionomics will be a key research priority that will enable us to better understand future dengue risk and design control strategies to reverse its global spread.

Neglected Urban Villages in Current Vector Surveillance System: Evidences in Guangzhou, China

Numerous urban villages (UVs) with substandard living conditions that cause people to live there with vulnerability to health impacts, including vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever (DF), are major environmental and public health concerns in highly urbanized regions, especially in developing countries. It is necessary to explore the relationship between UVs and vector for effectively dealing with these problems. In this study, land-use types, including UVs, normal construction land (NCL), unused land (UL), vegetation, and water, were retrieved from the high-resolution remotely sensed imagery in the central area of Guangzhou in 2017. The vector density from May to October in 2017, including Aedes. albopictus (Ae. albopictus)’s Breteau index (BI), standard space index (SSI), and adult density index (ADI) were obtained from the vector surveillance system implemented by the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Furthermore, the spatial and temporal patterns of vector monitoring sites and vector density were analyzed on a fine scale, and then the Geodetector tool was further employed to explore the relationships between vector density and land-use types. The monitoring sites were mainly located in NCL (55.70%–56.44%) and UV (13.14%–13.92%). Among the total monitoring sites of BI (79), SSI (312), and ADI (326), the random sites accounted for about 88.61%, 97.12%, and 98.47%, respectively. The density of Ae. albopictus was temporally related to rainfall and temperature and was obviously differentiated among different land-use types. Meanwhile, the grids with higher density, which were mostly concentrated in the Pearl River fork zone that collects a large number of UVs, showed that the density of Ae. albopictus was spatially associated with the UVs. Next, the results of the Geodetector illustrated that UVs posed great impact on the density of Ae. albopictus across the central region of Guangzhou. We suggest that the number of monitoring sites in the UVs should be appropriately increased to strengthen the current vector surveillance system in Guangzhou. This study will provide targeted guidance for local authorities, making more effective control and prevention measures on the DF epidemics.

An impressive capacity for cold tolerance plasticity protects against ionoregulatory collapse in the disease vector Aedes aegypti

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is largely confined to tropical and subtropical regions, but its range has recently been spreading to colder climates. As insect biogeography is tied to environmental temperature, understanding the limits of A. aegypti thermal tolerance and their capacity for phenotypic plasticity is important in predicting the spread of this species. In this study, we report on the chill coma onset (CCO) and recovery time (CCRT), as well as low-temperature survival phenotypes of larvae and adults of A. aegypti that developed or were acclimated to 15°C (cold) or 25°C (warm). Cold acclimation did not affect CCO temperatures of larvae but substantially reduced CCO in adults. Temperature and the duration of exposure both affected CCRT, and cold acclimation strongly mitigated these effects and increased rates of survival following prolonged chilling. Female adults were far less likely to take a blood meal when cold acclimated, and exposing females to blood (without feeding) attenuated some of the beneficial effects of cold acclimation on CCRT. Lastly, larvae suffered from haemolymph hyperkalaemia when chilled, but cold acclimation attenuated the imbalance. Our results demonstrate that A. aegypti larvae and adults have the capacity to acclimate to low temperatures, and do so at least in part by better maintaining ion balance in the cold. This ability for cold acclimation may facilitate the spread of this species to higher latitudes, particularly in an era of climate change.

A Simple Model to Predict the Potential Abundance of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes One Month in Advance

The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in the United States. Surveillance for adult Ae. aegypti is limited, hindering understanding of the mosquito's seasonal patterns and predictions of areas at elevated risk for autochthonous virus transmission. We developed a simple, intuitive empirical model that uses readily available temperature and humidity variables to predict environmental suitability for low, medium, or high potential abundance of adult Ae. aegypti in a given city 1 month in advance. Potential abundance was correctly predicted in 73% of months in arid Phoenix, AZ (over a 10-year period), and 63% of months in humid Miami, FL (over a 2-year period). The monthly model predictions can be updated daily, weekly, or monthly and thus may be applied to forecast suitable conditions for Ae. aegypti to inform vector-control activities and guide household-level actions to reduce mosquito habitat and human exposure.

Considerations for the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for dengue

Dengue circulates endemically in many tropical and subtropical regions. In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set out goals to reduce dengue mortality and morbidity by 50% and 25%, respectively, between 2010 and 2020. These goals will not be met. This is, in part, due to existing interventions being insufficiently effective to prevent spread. Further, complex and variable patterns of disease presentation coupled with imperfect surveillance systems mean that even tracking changes in burden is rarely possible. As part of the Sustainable Development Goals, WHO will propose new dengue-specific goals for 2030. The 2030 goals provide an opportunity for focused action on tackling dengue burden but should be carefully developed to be ambitious but also technically feasible. Here we discuss the potential for clearly defined case fatality rates and the rollout of new and effective intervention technologies to form the foundation of these future goals. Further, we highlight how the complexity of dengue epidemiology limits the feasibility of goals that instead target dengue outbreaks.

Integrating environmental and neighborhood factors in MaxEnt modeling to predict species distributions: A case study of Aedes albopictus in southeastern Pennsylvania

Aedes albopictus is a viable vector for several infectious diseases such as Zika, West Nile, Dengue viruses and others. Originating from Asia, this invasive species is rapidly expanding into North American temperate areas and urbanized places causing major concerns for public health. Previous analyses show that warm temperatures and high humidity during the mosquito season are ideal conditions for A. albopictus development, while its distribution is correlated with population density. To better understand A. albopictus expansion into urban places it is important to consider the role of both environmental and neighborhood factors. The present study aims to assess the relative importance of both environmental variables and neighborhood factors in the prediction of A. albopictus’ presence in Southeast Pennsylvania using MaxEnt (version 3.4.1) machine-learning algorithm. Three models are developed that include: (1) exclusively environmental variables, (2) exclusively neighborhood factors, and (3) a combination of environmental variables and neighborhood factors. Outcomes from the three models are compared in terms of variable importance, accuracy, and the spatial distribution of predicted A. albopictus’ presence. All three models predicted the presence of A. albopictus in urban centers, however, each to a different spatial extent. The combined model resulted in the highest accuracy (74.7%) compared to the model with only environmental variables (73.5%) and to the model with only neighborhood factors (72.1%) separately. Although the combined model does not essentially increase the accuracy in the prediction, the spatial patterns of mosquito distribution are different when compared to environmental or neighborhood factors alone. Environmental variables help to explain conditions associated with mosquitoes in suburban/rural areas, while neighborhood factors summarize the local conditions that can also impact mosquito habitats in predominantly urban places. Overall, the present study shows that MaxEnt is suitable for integrating neighborhood factors associated with mosquito presence that can complement and improve species distribution modeling.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use.

METHODS

Here, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia.

RESULTS

We estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8-17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175-754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue's burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2-99.9%) of cases over a long-term average.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments.

Applying fuzzy logic to assess the biogeographical risk of dengue in South America

BACKGROUND

Over the last decade, reports about dengue cases have increase worldwide, which is particularly worrisome in South America due to the historic record of dengue outbreaks from the seventeenth century until the first half of the twentieth century. Dengue is a viral disease that involves insect vectors, namely Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, which implies that, to prevent and combat outbreaks, it is necessary to understand the set of ecological and biogeographical factors affecting both the vector species and the virus.

METHODS

We contribute with a methodology based on fuzzy logic that is helpful to disentangle the main factors that determine favorable environmental conditions for vectors and diseases. Using favorability functions as fuzzy logic modelling technique and the fuzzy intersection, union and inclusion as fuzzy operators, we were able to specify the territories at biogeographical risk of dengue outbreaks in South America.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that the distribution of Ae. aegypti mostly encompasses the biogeographical framework of dengue in South America, which suggests that this species is the principal vector responsible for the geographical extent of dengue cases in the continent. Nevertheless, the intersection between the favorability for dengue cases and the union of the favorability for any of the vector species provided a comprehensive map of the biogeographical risk for dengue.

CONCLUSIONS

Fuzzy logic is an appropriate conceptual and operational tool to tackle the nuances of the vector-illness biogeographical interaction. The application of fuzzy logic may be useful in decision-making by the public health authorities to prevent, control and mitigate vector-borne diseases.