Akaike's information criterion in generalized estimating equations

Traumatic bereavement, acute dissociation, and posttraumatic stress: 14 years after the MS Estonia disaster

This prospective longitudinal study aimed to examine posttraumatic stress in survivors 14 years after a ferry disaster, and estimate short- and long-term changes in stress associated with traumatic bereavement and acute dissociation. There were 852 people who perished in the disaster, 137 survived. The 51 Swedish survivors were surveyed with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) at 3 months, 1, 3, and 14 years (response rates 82%, 65%, 51%, and 69%). Symptoms decreased from 3 months to 1 year; no change was found thereafter. After 14 years, 27% reported significant symptoms. Traumatic bereavement, but not acute dissociation, was associated with long-term symptom elevation. Chronic posttraumatic stress can persist in a minority of survivors, and traumatic bereavement appears to hinder recovery.

Water use practices limit the effectiveness of a temephos-based Aedes aegypti larval control program in Northern Argentina

BACKGROUND

A five-year citywide control program based on regular application of temephos significantly reduced Aedes aegypti larval indices but failed to maintain them below target levels in Clorinda, northern Argentina. Incomplete surveillance coverage and reduced residuality of temephos were held as the main putative causes limiting effectiveness of control actions.

METHODOLOGY

The duration of temephos residual effects in household-owned water-holding tanks (the most productive container type and main target for control) was estimated prospectively in two trials. Temephos was applied using spoons or inside perforated small zip-lock bags. Water samples from the study tanks (including positive and negative controls) were collected weekly and subjected to larval mortality bioassays. Water turnover was estimated quantitatively by adding sodium chloride to the study tanks and measuring its dilution 48 hs later.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The median duration of residual effects of temephos applied using spoons (2.4 weeks) was significantly lower than with zip-lock bags (3.4 weeks), and widely heterogeneous between tanks. Generalized estimating equations models showed that bioassay larval mortality was strongly affected by water type and type of temephos application depending on water type. Water type and water turnover were highly significantly associated. Tanks filled with piped water had high turnover rates and short-lasting residual effects, whereas tanks filled with rain water showed the opposite pattern. On average, larval infestations reappeared nine weeks post-treatment and seven weeks after estimated loss of residuality.

CONCLUSIONS

Temephos residuality in the field was much shorter and more variable than expected. The main factor limiting temephos residuality was fast water turnover, caused by householders' practice of refilling tanks overnight to counteract the intermittence of the local water supply. Limited field residuality of temephos accounts in part for the inability of the larval control program to further reduce infestation levels with a treatment cycle period of 3 or 4 months.

Age, period, and cohort analysis of regular dental care behavior and edentulism: a marginal approach

Background

To analyze the regular dental care behavior and prevalence of edentulism in adult Danes, reported in sequential cross-sectional oral health surveys by the application of a marginal approach to consider the possible clustering effect of birth cohorts.

Methods

Data from four sequential cross-sectional surveys of non-institutionalized Danes conducted from 1975-2005 comprising 4330 respondents aged 15+ years in 9 birth cohorts were analyzed. The key study variables were seeking dental care on an annual basis (ADC) and edentulism. For the analysis of ADC, survey year, age, gender, socio-economic status (SES) group, denture-wearing, and school dental care (SDC) during childhood were considered. For the analysis of edentulism, only respondents aged 35+ years were included. Survey year, age, gender, SES group, ADC, and SDC during childhood were considered as the independent factors. To take into account the clustering effect of birth cohorts, marginal logistic regressions with an independent correlation structure in generalized estimating equations (GEE) were carried out, with PROC GENMOD in SAS software.

Results

The overall proportion of people seeking ADC increased from 58.8% in 1975 to 86.7% in 2005, while for respondents aged 35 years or older, the overall prevalence of edentulism (35+ years) decreased from 36.4% in 1975 to 5.0% in 2005. Females, respondents in the higher SES group, in more recent survey years, with no denture, and receiving SDC in all grades during childhood were associated with higher probability of seeking ADC regularly (P < 0.05). The interaction of SDC and age (P < 0.0001) was significant. The probabilities of seeking ADC were even higher among subjects with SDC in all grades and aged 45 years or older. Females, older age group, respondents in earlier survey years, not seeking ADC, lower SES group, and not receiving SDC in all grades were associated with higher probability of being edentulous (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

With the use of GEE, the potential clustering effect of birth cohorts in sequential cross-sectional oral health survey data could be appropriately considered. The success of Danish dental health policy was demonstrated by a continued increase of regular dental visiting habits and tooth retention in adults because school dental care was provided to Danes in their childhood.

Electrocardiographic ST-segment depression and exposure to traffic-related aerosols in elderly subjects with coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Air pollutants have not been associated with ambulatory electrocardiographic evidence of ST-segment depression ≥ 1 mm (probable cardiac ischemia). We previously found that markers of primary (combustion-related) organic aerosols and gases were positively associated with circulating biomarkers of inflammation and ambulatory blood pressure in the present cohort panel study of elderly subjects with coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVES

We specifically aimed to evaluate whether exposure markers of primary organic aerosols and ultrafine particles were more strongly associated with ST-segment depression of ≥ 1 mm than were secondary organic aerosols or PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm) mass.

METHODS

We evaluated relations of air pollutants to ambulatory electrocardiographic evidence of cardiac ischemia over 10 days in 38 subjects without ST depression on baseline electrocardiographs. Exposures were measured outdoors in retirement communities in the Los Angeles basin, including daily size-fractionated particle mass and hourly markers of primary and secondary organic aerosols and gases. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate odds of hourly ST-segment depression (≥ 1 mm) from hourly air pollution exposures and to estimate relative rates of daily counts of ST-segment depression from daily average exposures, controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

We found significant positive associations of hourly ST-segment depression with markers of combustion-related aerosols and gases averaged 1-hr through 3-4 days, but not secondary (photochemically aged) organic aerosols or ozone. The odds ratio per interquartile increase in 2-day average primary organic carbon (5.2 µg/m3) was 15.4 (95% confidence interval, 3.5-68.2). Daily counts of ST-segment depression were consistently associated with primary combustion markers and 2-day average quasi-ultrafine particles < 0.25 µm.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that exposure to quasi-ultrafine particles and combustion-related pollutants (predominantly from traffic) increase the risk of myocardial ischemia, coherent with our previous findings for systemic inflammation and blood pressure.

Effects of policies to restrict malt liquor sales on neighborhood crime

We examined the effectiveness of malt liquor sales restrictions adopted in 2005 in three liquor stores in a large Midwestern U.S. city. We hypothesized that the restrictions would be associated with crime reductions in adjacent neighborhoods. Using Poisson regression modeling, we compared crime rates two years prior to, and two years following policy adoption. Findings were mixed; malt liquor restrictions were associated with reductions in disorderly conduct citations, but increases in larceny/theft, beyond citywide trends. Limitations and implications of our study are discussed, and further research suggested. The study was funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Patient age, ethnicity, medical history, and risk factor profile, but not drug insurance coverage, predict successful attainment of glycemic targets: Time 2 Do More Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (T2DM QUERI)

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors in patients with type 2 diabetes and A1C >7.0% associated with attainment of A1C ≤ 7.0%.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used a prospective registry of 5,280 Canadian patients in primary care settings enrolled in a 12-month glycemic pharmacotherapy optimization strategy based on national guidelines.

RESULTS

At close out, median A1C was 7.1% (vs. 7.8% at baseline) with 48% of subjects achieving A1C ≤ 7.0% (P < 0.0001). Older patients of Asian or black origin, those with longer diabetes duration, those with lower baseline A1C, BMI, LDL cholesterol, and blood pressure, and those on angiotensin receptor blockers and a lower number of antihyperglycemic agents, were more likely to achieve A1C ≤ 7.0% at some point during the study (all P < 0.0235). Access to private versus public drug coverage did not impact glycemic target realization.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient demography, cardiometabolic health, and ongoing pharmacotherapy, but not access to private drug insurance coverage, contribute to the care gap in type 2 diabetes.

Healthcare use after screening for lung cancer

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the benefits of lung cancer screening, all effects of screening need to be considered. The aim of this study was to determine whether screening had an effect on healthcare use, specifically whether use increased for those with a false-positive or indeterminate screening result.

METHODS

Recruited were 400 individuals participating in a lung cancer screening study at the University of Pittsburgh. Self-reported outpatient healthcare use information was collected for the 6 months before, 0 to 6 months after, and 6 to 12 months after screening. The screening outcomes were negative, indeterminate, and suspicious. Repeated-measures Poisson regression models were used to examine changes in use over time and how changes over time varied among the screening outcome groups.

RESULTS

Approximately 58% of participants had a negative screening result, 36% had an indeterminate result, and approximately 6% had a suspicious result. The percentage of individuals who had any incidence of each type of outpatient use increased after screening, with the greatest increase noted for those with a suspicious screening result. Adjusted mean use significantly increased for nearly all types of use and for all 3 screening results categories in the 6 months after screening, but mostly declined to prescreening levels in the next 6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Outpatient healthcare use was found to increase after screening for all individuals who were screened for lung cancer, regardless of the screening finding. The cost of the lung-related visits alone was substantial. Therefore, if lung cancer screening prevalence is increased, attendant follow-up healthcare costs are also likely to increase.

Correlation and studies of habitat selection: problem, red herring or opportunity?

With the advent of new technologies, animal locations are being collected at ever finer spatio-temporal scales. We review analytical methods for dealing with correlated data in the context of resource selection, including post hoc variance inflation techniques, 'two-stage' approaches based on models fit to each individual, generalized estimating equations and hierarchical mixed-effects models. These methods are applicable to a wide range of correlated data problems, but can be difficult to apply and remain especially challenging for use-availability sampling designs because the correlation structure for combinations of used and available points are not likely to follow common parametric forms. We also review emerging approaches to studying habitat selection that use fine-scale temporal data to arrive at biologically based definitions of available habitat, while naturally accounting for autocorrelation by modelling animal movement between telemetry locations. Sophisticated analyses that explicitly model correlation rather than consider it a nuisance, like mixed effects and state-space models, offer potentially novel insights into the process of resource selection, but additional work is needed to make them more generally applicable to large datasets based on the use-availability designs. Until then, variance inflation techniques and two-stage approaches should offer pragmatic and flexible approaches to modelling correlated data.

Anemia is associated with metabolic distress and brain tissue hypoxia after subarachnoid hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Anemia is frequently encountered in critically ill patients and adversely affects cerebral oxygen delivery and brain tissue oxygen (PbtO2). The objective of this study is to assess whether there is an association between anemia and metabolic distress or brain tissue hypoxia in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage.

METHODS

Retrospective study was conducted in a neurological intensive care unit in a university hospital. Patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage that underwent multimodality monitoring with intracranial pressure, PbtO2 and microdialysis were analyzed. The relationships between hemoglobin (Hb) concentrations and brain tissue hypoxia (PbtO2 < or = 15 mmHg) and metabolic distress (lactate/pyruvate ratio > or =40) were analyzed with general linear models of logistic function for dichotomized outcomes utilizing generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

A total of 359 matched neuromonitoring hours and Hb measurements were analyzed from 34 consecutive patients. The median hemoglobin was 9.7 g/dl (interquartile range 8.8-10.5). After adjusting for significant covariates, reduced hemoglobin concentration was associated with a progressively increased risk of brain tissue hypoxia (adjusted OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4]; P = 0.01 for every unit decrease). Also after adjusting for significant covariates, hemoglobin concentrations below 9 g/dl and between 9.1 and 10 g/dl were associated with an increased risk of metabolic distress as compared to concentrations between 10.1 and 11 g/dl (adjusted OR 3.7 [1.5-9.4]; P = 0.004 for Hb < or = 9 g/dl and adjusted OR 1.9 [1.1-3.3]; P = 0.03 for Hb 9.1-10 g/dl).

CONCLUSIONS

Anemia is associated with a progressively increased risk of cerebral metabolic distress and brain tissue hypoxia after subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Arsenic in drinking water and stroke hospitalizations in Michigan

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Mechanistic and human studies suggest a role for arsenic in ischemic stroke; however, risks from chronic, low-level exposures are uncertain and US studies are lacking. The objective was to investigate the association between low-level arsenic exposure in drinking water and ischemic stroke hospital admissions in Michigan.

METHODS

Ischemic stroke hospital admissions among those aged ≥ 45 years were identified (1994 to 2006). Population-weighted average arsenic concentrations were estimated for each Michigan county (n = 83) and for zip codes in Genesee County (n=27) where there is greater variation in arsenic concentrations. US Census data provided age- and sex-specific population counts and other county- and zip code-level variables (race, income), which were adjusted for in multilevel negative binomial regression models of arsenic and stroke admissions. Hospital admissions for duodenal ulcer and hernia, not hypothesized to be associated with arsenic, were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Adjusted county-level analyses suggested a relationship between arsenic and ischemic stroke hospital admissions, although similar associations were observed for duodenal ulcer and hernia. In zip code-level analysis, arsenic was associated with an increased risk of stroke admission (relative risk, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.05 per μg/L increase in arsenic) after adjustment for confounders, and null or negative associations were found between arsenic and nonvascular outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this study suggest that exposure to even low levels of arsenic in drinking water may be associated with a higher risk of incident stroke. Given the ecological nature of the analysis, further epidemiological study with individual-level data on arsenic exposure and incident stroke is warranted.

Prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in the older population: KORA S4/F4 cohort study

BACKGROUND

The aim was to derive Type 2 diabetes prediction models for the older population and to check to what degree addition of 2-h glucose measurements (oral glucose tolerance test) and biomarkers improves the predictive power of risk scores which are based on non-biochemical as well as conventional clinical parameters.

METHODS

Oral glucose tolerance tests were carried out in a population-based sample of 1353 subjects, aged 55-74 years (62% response) in Augsburg (Southern Germany) from 1999 to 2001. The cohort was reinvestigated in 2006-2008. Of those individuals without diabetes at baseline, 887 (74%) participated in the follow-up. Ninety-three (10.5%) validated diabetes cases occurred during the follow-up. In logistic regression analyses for model 1, variables were selected from personal characteristics and additional variables were selected from routinely measurable blood parameters (model 2) and from 2-h glucose, adiponectin, insulin and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (model 3).

RESULTS

Age, sex, BMI, parental diabetes, smoking and hypertension were selected for model 1. Model 2 additionally included fasting glucose, HbA(1c) and uric acid. The same variables plus 2-h glucose were selected for model 3. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve significantly increased from 0.763 (model 1) to 0.844 (model 2) and 0.886 (model 3) (P<0.01). Biomarkers such as adiponectin and insulin did not improve the predictive abilities of models 2 and 3. Cross-validation and bootstrap-corrected model performance indicated high internal validity.

CONCLUSIONS

This longitudinal study in an older population provides models to predict the future risk of Type 2 diabetes. The OGTT, but not biomarkers, improved discrimination of incident diabetes.

Enthesopathies as occupational stress markers: evidence from the upper limb

Enthesopathies--that is, "musculo-skeletal stress markers"--are frequently used to reconstruct past lifestyles and activity patterns. Relatively little attention has been paid in physical anthropology to methodological gaps implicit in this approach: almost all methods previously employed neglect current medical insights into enthesopathies and the distinction between healthy and pathological aspects has been arbitrary. This study presents a new visual method of studying fibrocartilaginous enthesopathies of the upper limb (modified from Villotte: Bull Mém Soc Anthropol Paris n.s. 18 (2006) 65-85), and application of this method to 367 males who died between the 18th and 20th centuries, from four European identified skeletal collections: the Christ Church Spitalfields Collection, the identified skeletal collection of the anthropological museum of the University of Coimbra, and the Sassari and Bologna collections of the museum of Anthropology, University of Bologna. The analysis, using generalized estimating equations to model repeated binary outcome variables, has established a strong link between enthesopathies and physical activity: men with occupations involving heavy manual tasks have significantly (P-value < 0.001) more lesions of the upper limbs than nonmanual and light manual workers. Probability of the presence of an enthesopathy also increases with age and is higher for the right side compared with the left. Our study failed to distinguish significant differences between the collections when adjusted for the other effects. It appears that enthesopathies can be used to reconstruct past lifestyles of populations if physical anthropologists: 1) pay attention to the choice of entheses in their studies and 2) use appropriate methods.

A conditional approach for inference in multivariate age-period-cohort models

Age-period-cohort (APC) models are used to analyse data from disease registers given by age and time. When data are stratified by one further variable, for example geographical location, multivariate APC (MAPC) models can be applied to identify and estimate heterogeneous time trends across the different strata. In such models, outcomes share a set of parameters, typically the age effects, while the remaining parameters may differ across strata. In this article, we propose a conditional approach for inference to directly model relative time trends. We show that in certain situations the conditional approach can handle unmeasured confounding so that relative risks might be estimated with higher precision. Furthermore, we propose an extension for data with more stratification levels. Maximum likelihood estimation is performed using software for multinomial logistic regression. The usage of smoothing splines is suggested to stabilise estimates of relative time trends, if necessary. We apply the methodology to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality data in England & Wales, stratified by three different areas and gender.

Factors associated with whole carcass condemnation rates in provincially-inspected abattoirs in Ontario 2001-2007: implications for food animal syndromic surveillance

BACKGROUND

Ontario provincial abattoirs have the potential to be important sources of syndromic surveillance data for emerging diseases of concern to animal health, public health and food safety. The objectives of this study were to: (1) describe provincially inspected abattoirs processing cattle in Ontario in terms of the number of abattoirs, the number of weeks abattoirs process cattle, geographical distribution, types of whole carcass condemnations reported, and the distance animals are shipped for slaughter; and (2) identify various seasonal, secular, disease and non-disease factors that might bias the results of quantitative methods, such as cluster detection methods, used for food animal syndromic surveillance.

RESULTS

Data were collected from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and the Ontario Cattlemen's Association regarding whole carcass condemnation rates for cattle animal classes, abattoir compliance ratings, and the monthly sales-yard price for various cattle classes from 2001-2007. To analyze the association between condemnation rates and potential explanatory variables including abattoir characteristics, season, year and commodity price, as well as animal class, negative binomial regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to account for autocorrelation among observations from the same abattoir. Results of the fitted model found animal class, year, season, price, and audit rating are associated with condemnation rates in Ontario abattoirs. In addition, a subset of data was used to estimate the average distance cattle are shipped to Ontario provincial abattoirs. The median distance from the farm to the abattoir was approximately 82 km, and 75% of cattle were shipped less than 100 km.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that secular and seasonal trends, as well as some non-disease factors will need to be corrected for when applying quantitative methods for syndromic surveillance involving these data. This study also demonstrated that animals shipped to Ontario provincial abattoirs come from relatively local farms, which is important when considering the use of spatial surveillance methods for these data.

Microclimate and human factors in the divergent ecology of Aedes aegypti along the Arizona, U.S./Sonora, MX border

This study examined the association of human and environmental factors with the presence of Aedes aegypti, the vector for dengue fever and yellow fever viruses, in a desert region in the southwest United States and northwest Mexico. Sixty-eight sites were longitudinally surveyed along the United States-Mexico border in Tucson, AZ, Nogales, AZ, and Nogales, Sonora during a 3-year period. Aedes aegypti presence or absence at each site was measured three times per year using standard oviposition traps. Maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity were measured hourly at each site. Field inventories were conducted to measure human housing factors potentially affecting mosquito presence, such as the use of air-conditioning and evaporative coolers, outdoor vegetation cover, and access to piped water. The results showed that Ae. aegypti presence was highly variable across space and time. Aedes aegypti presence was positively associated with highly vegetated areas. Other significant variables included microclimatic differences and access to piped water. This study demonstrates the importance of microclimate and human factors in predicting Ae. aegypti distribution in an arid environment.

The Pennsylvania certified safety committee program: an evaluation of participation and effects on work injury rates

BACKGROUND

Since 1994, Pennsylvania, like several other states, has provided a 5% discount on workers' compensation insurance premiums for firms with a certified joint labor management safety committee. This study explored the factors affecting program participation and evaluated the effect of this program on work injuries.

METHODS

Using Pennsylvania unemployment insurance data (1996-2006), workers' compensation data (1998-2005), and the safety committee audit data (1999-2007), we conducted propensity score matching and regression analysis on the program's impact on injury rates.

RESULTS

Larger firms, firms with higher injury rates, firms in high risk industries, and firms without labor unions were more likely to join the safety committee program and less likely to drop out of the program. The injury rates of participants did not decline more than the rates for non-participants; however, rates at participant firms with good compliance dropped more than the rates at participant firms with poor compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Firm size and prior injury rates are key predictors of program participation. Firms that complied with the requirement to train their safety committee members did experience reductions in injuries, but non-compliance with that and other requirements was so widespread that no overall impact of the program could be detected.

A Portuguese value set for the SF-6D

OBJECTIVES

The SF-6D is a preference-based measure of health derived from the SF-36 that can be used for cost-effectiveness analysis using cost-per-quality adjusted life-year analysis. This study seeks to estimate a system weight for the SF-6D for Portugal and to compare the results with the UK system weights.

METHODS

A sample of 55 health states defined by the SF-6D has been valued by a representative random sample of the Portuguese population, stratified by sex and age (n = 140), using the Standard Gamble (SG). Several models are estimated at both the individual and aggregate levels for predicting health-state valuations. Models with main effects, with interaction effects and with the constant forced to unity are presented. Random effects (RE) models are estimated using generalized least squares (GLS) regressions. Generalized estimation equations (GEE) are used to estimate RE models with the constant forced to unity. Estimations at the individual level were performed using 630 health-state valuations. Alternative functional forms are considered to account for the skewed distribution of health-state valuations.

RESULTS

The models are analyzed in terms of their coefficients, overall fit, and the ability for predicting the SG-values. The RE models estimated using GLS and through GEE produce significant coefficients, which are robust across model specification. However, there are concerns regarding some inconsistent estimates, and so parsimonious consistent models were estimated. There is evidence of under prediction in some states assigned to poor health. The results are consistent with the UK results.

CONCLUSION

The models estimated provide preference-based quality of life weights for the Portuguese population when health status data have been collected using the SF-36. Although the sample was randomly drowned findings should be treated with caution, given the small sample size, even knowing that they have been estimated at the individual level.

Risk of malaria transmission from fish ponds in the Peruvian Amazon

BACKGROUND

The contribution made by fish ponds (pisciculture) to malaria transmission in the Peruvian Amazon remains to be confirmed. Recent entomological evidence indicates that Anopheles darlingi, the main malaria vector in the region, is frequently found in fish ponds along the Iquitos-Nauta road (Loreto, Peru). The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of fish pond density on malaria occurrence.

METHODS

A retrospective 30-month cohort study was conducted in eight communities along the Iquitos-Nauta road. Malaria incidence was ascertained from malaria registries of the local health post, which consist of data from both active and passive surveillance (247 cases). Fish pond density was measured using an interpreted satellite image and information on potential confounders was collected through interviewer-administered questionnaires.

RESULTS

A total of 1018 individuals from 234 eligible households (90% of the 259 total number of households in the study area) provided complete information on exposures and outcome. Fish pond density was found to be a significant predictor of malaria occurrence (aOR=1.23; 95% CI: 1.09-1.38).

CONCLUSION

The association between fish pond density and malaria suggests that fish ponds contribute to malaria transmission in the region. These results have important implications for the prevention and control of malaria and the development of pisciculture as an important economic activity in Amazonia and beyond.

Contextual and family factors associated with negative assessment of children's health

BACKGROUND

The health and well-being of children are intimately linked to their families' physical, emotional and social circumstances. Evaluation of children's health has most often been based on parental responses. This work investigates whether proxy health, family context and household factors are associated with child's poor health reported by parental figures.

METHODS

Data of 32,688 children of three age-strata (0-5; 6-11; 12-17 years) were obtained from a representative survey in Brazil in 2003. The analyses used generalized estimation equations to examine the association between having a bad health evaluation and the following factors grouped as: children/adolescents characteristics, history of child's health care use, proxy characteristics and family and household factors.

RESULTS

Over 60% of the questionnaires were answered by the child's mother, with no significant difference among age groups. The proportion of children who had their health rated as bad decreased with age and was greater among males in all age groups (9.7%; 7.5%; 6.7% vs. 6.8%; 6.6%; 6.3%). The final model shows that household income per capita is inversely related to child's bad health in all age groups. Additionally, parent/proxy bad self-rated health is strongly and directly associated with child's bad health and is not explained by measures of the child's health or by the proxy's lack of education or a family's low income. The number of medical visits by the child in past year is also inversely associated with bad health.

CONCLUSION

Results reinforce the importance of the household context to child's health and the association between parental figures and child health.

Transformation of abandoned farm fields into coniferous plantations: Is there enough vegetation structure left to maintain winter habitat of snowshoe hares?

Natural forests will likely be unable to sustainably fulfill society needs for wood fibers and intensively managed plantations could be an alternative source of timber in the future. Abandoned farm fields are often targeted for conversion, as they are already disturbed sites; however, they also represent high-quality habitat for species such as snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus Erxleben 1777), a keystone mammal in the boreal forest. We evaluated the effect of converting abandoned farm fields (n = 22) to conifer plantations (n = 19) on habitat use by snowshoe hares, using pellet counts and snow-tracking surveys. Both survey techniques yielded similar results: winter habitat use by hares is mostly affected by vegetation cover rather than habitat type. In the short term, plantations do not offer less protective cover than the one found in abandoned farm fields. However, upon reaching a certain height (≥7 m), plantations are mechanically pruned and lose their protective quality. Promoting silvicultural techniques that maintain lateral cover beyond a critical threshold (70%) could preserve the quality of hare habitat for an extended proportion of rotation time of the plantation.

Recent cadmium exposure among male partners may affect oocyte fertilization during in vitro fertilization (IVF)

Purpose

We recently reported evidence suggesting associations between urine cadmium concentrations, reflecting long-term exposure, measured in 25 female patients (relative risk = 1.41, P = 0.412) and 15 of their male partners (relative risk = 0.19, P = 0.097) and oocyte fertilization in vitro. Blood cadmium concentrations reflect more recent exposure.

Methods

We here incorporate those measures into our prior data set and employ multivariable log-binomial regression models to generate hypotheses concerning the relative effects of long-term and recent cadmium exposure on oocyte fertilization in vitro.

Results

No association is indicated for blood cadmium from women and oocyte fertilization, adjusted for urine cadmium and creatinine, blood lead and mercury, age, race/ethnicity and cigarette smoking (relative risk = 0.88, P = 0.828). However, we suggest an inverse adjusted association between blood cadmium from men and oocyte fertilization (relative risk = 0.66, P = 0.143).

Conclusions

These results suggest that consideration of long-term and recent exposures are both important for assessing the effect of partner cadmium levels on oocyte fertilization in vitro.

Pediatricians' attitudes and practices on ADHD before and after the development of ADHD pediatric practice guidelines

PURPOSE

The study aims to assess the changes in attitudes and practices about ADHD reported by AAP fellows between 1999 and 2005 during which AAP ADHD guidelines, training, and quality improvement initiatives occurred.

METHOD

The study assesses AAP-initiated surveys that were conducted between 1999 and 2005 and involving a random sample of 1,000 and 1,603 pediatricians, respectively.

RESULTS

The findings reveal that significant, although modest, increases occurred in pediatric practitioners' self-reported adherence to the guidelines. About 81% of respondents reported routine use of formal diagnostic criteria (up from 67%), and 67% of the respondents routinely use ADHD teacher rating scales (compared to 49% in the 1999 survey). Findings further reveal that treatment with stimulant medications was used extensively by pediatricians from both surveys; more pediatricians in the 2005 survey reported use of a second stimulant if the first did not work, and still more reported almost always providing parent training, although the estimated number remained only about a quarter of the total; and greater familiarity with the initiatives predicted better reported adherence to the guidelines.

CONCLUSION

The reported behaviors of practitioners have moved in the direction of greater adherence with the recommended AAP ADHD guidelines, and there was a positive response to, and a greater use of, the materials developed to enhance practice. The authors infer that practice changes may be due to many factors, including AAP guidelines and associated implementation efforts. Changing physician practices needs to be sustained through a continuing process that requires multiple, varying, sustained efforts directed at physicians, other providers, and families.

Mercury exposure, serum antinuclear/antinucleolar antibodies, and serum cytokine levels in mining populations in Amazonian Brazil: a cross-sectional study

Mercury is an immunotoxic substance that has been shown to induce autoimmune disease in rodent models, characterized by lymphoproliferation, overproduction of immunoglobulin (IgG and IgE), and high circulating levels of auto-antibodies directed at antigens located in the nucleus (antinuclear auto-antibodies, or ANA) or the nucleolus (antinucleolar auto-antibodies, or ANoA). We have reported elevated levels of ANA and ANoA in human populations exposed to mercury in artisanal gold mining, though other confounding variables that may also modulate ANA/ANoA levels were not well controlled. The goal of this study is to specifically test whether occupational and environmental conditions (other than mercury exposure) that are associated with artisanal gold mining affect the prevalence of markers of autoimmune dysfunction. We measured ANA, ANoA, and cytokine concentrations in serum and compared results from mercury-exposed artisanal gold miners to those from diamond and emerald miners working under similar conditions and with similar socio-economic status and risks of infectious disease. Mercury-exposed gold miners had higher prevalence of detectable ANA and ANoA and higher titers of ANA and ANoA as compared to diamond and emerald miners with no occupational mercury exposure. Also, mercury-exposed gold miners with detectable ANA or ANoA in serum had significantly higher concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1beta, TNF-alpha, and IFN-gamma in serum as compared to the diamond and emerald miners. This study provides further evidence that mercury exposure may lead to autoimmune dysfunction and systemic inflammation in affected populations.

A longitudinal study of vibration white finger, cold response of digital arteries, and measures of daily vibration exposure

PURPOSE

To investigate prospectively the relation between vibration-induced vascular disorders and measures of daily exposure to hand-transmitted vibration (HTV).

METHODS

Two hundred and forty-nine HTV workers and 138 control men of the same companies participated in a 3-year follow-up study. The diagnosis of vibration induced white finger (VWF) in the HTV workers and that of Raynaud's phenomenon in the controls was based on the medical history, the administration of color charts and the results of a cold test with measurement of finger systolic blood pressures. Vibration magnitudes from the tools were measured as r.m.s acceleration, frequency weighted according to international standard ISO 5349-1, and also unweighted over the frequency range 6.3-1,250 Hz. Daily vibration exposure was expressed in terms of daily exposure duration and frequency-weighted or unweighted r.m.s. acceleration normalized to a reference period of 8 h (Aw(8) or Auw(8), respectively).

RESULTS

The incidence of VWF varied from 5 to 6% in the HTV workers versus 0-1.5% for Raynaud's phenomenon in the controls. After adjusting for potential confounders, Auw(8) gave better predictions of the incidence of VWF and the cold response of the digital arteries over time than Aw(8) or daily exposure duration. These findings were observed in the entire sample of HTV workers, in those with no VWF at the initial investigation, and in those with normal cold test results at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this longitudinal study suggest that a measure of daily vibration exposure calculated from unweighted r.m.s. acceleration over the frequency range 6.3-1,250 Hz performs better for the prediction of vascular disorders in users of vibratory tools than a measure derived from r.m.s. acceleration frequency weighted according to ISO 5349-1. This study provides epidemiological evidence that more weight should be given to intermediate and high-frequency vibration for evaluating the severity of hand-transmitted vibration.

Characterization of intensive care unit acquired hyponatremia and hypernatremia following cardiac surgery

PURPOSE

Although intensive care unit (ICU) acquired sodium disturbances are common in critically ill patients, few studies have examined sodium disturbances in patients following cardiac surgery. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology of ICU-acquired hyponatremia and hypernatremia in patients following cardiac surgery.

METHODS

We identified 6,727 adults (> or =18 yr) who were admitted consecutively to a regional cardiovascular intensive care unit (CVICU) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2006 and were documented as having normal serum sodium levels (133 to 145 mmol.L(-1)) during the first day of ICU admission. ICU-acquired hyponatremia and hypernatremia were defined as a change in serum sodium concentration to <133 mmol.L(-1) or >145 mmol.L(-1), respectively, following ICU day one.

RESULTS

A first episode of ICU-acquired hyponatremia and hypernatremia developed in 785 (12%) and 242 (4%) patients, respectively, (95% confidence interval [CI] 11-12% and 95% CI 3-4%, respectively), with a respective incidence density of 4.2 and 1.3 patients per 100 days of ICU admission (95% CI 4.0-4.5 and 95% CI 1.2-1.5). The incidence of ICU-acquired sodium disturbances varied according to the patients' demographic and clinical variables for both hyponatremia (age, diabetes, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE II] score, mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay, serum glucose level, and serum potassium level) and hypernatremia (APACHE II score, mechanical ventilation, length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission, length of ICU stay, serum glucose level, and serum potassium level). Compared with patients with normal serum sodium levels, hospital mortality was increased in patients with ICU-acquired hyponatremia (1.6% vs 10%, respectively; P < 0.001) and ICU-acquired hypernatremia (1.6% vs 14%, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

ICU-acquired hyponatremia and hypernatremia are common complications in critically ill patients following cardiac surgery. They are associated with patient demographic and clinical characteristics and an increased risk of hospital mortality.

Paraveterinary service use in Nepal's Himalaya

The involvement of paraveterinarians in animal-health delivery can reduce costs and allow expanded service delivery. Our objectives were to describe use of public paraveterinary services offered by junior technicians (JT) in two regions of Nepal, to identify factors associated with JT service use, and to characterize factors that limit JT service use. We used a survey of livestock owners in the Khumbu and Lower Mustang regions of Nepal's Himalaya to examine JT service use. Of 118 questionnaires completed between May 30, 1997 and July 8, 1997, 81 were analyzed for use of JT services to treat livestock: bovids, equids, and small ruminants. Five factors were associated with owners' use of JT services: living <30 min walk from a JT post (OR=12.2); having a positive opinion about JT services (OR=23.6); animals not having disease events that either impaired mobility or affected production or reproduction (OR=5.6), animals died related to a reported disease event (OR=3.2), and the owners' sex (with women being more likely to report use of JT services than men; OR=5.3).

The effect of social networks and social support on mental health services use, following a life event, among the Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area cohort

The study examined the association between life events and mental health services use, accounting for social networks and social support. Main and stress-buffering effects were estimated using longitudinal data from the Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area cohort (1,920 participants in 1993-1996, of whom 1,071 were re-interviewed in 2004-2005). Following a life event, the odds of using general medical services were increased by almost 50% when there was increased social support from spouse/partner (referral function). The odds of using mental health services within general health setup were reduced by 60% when there was increased support from relatives (stress-reduction function). Increased social support from friends and relatives was associated with a 40-60% decreased odds of using specialty psychiatric services after experiencing different life events (stress-reduction function). Overall, social support rather than social networks were more strongly associated with increased mental health service use following a life event. The implications for service delivery and program development are discussed.

Altruistic defence behaviours in aphids

BACKGROUND

Altruistic anti-predatory behaviours pose an evolutionary problem because they are costly to the actor and beneficial to the recipients. Altruistic behaviours can evolve through indirect fitness benefits when directed toward kin. The altruistic nature of anti-predatory behaviours is often difficult to establish because the actor can obtain direct fitness benefits, or the behaviour could result from selfish coercion by others, especially in eusocial animals. Non-eusocial parthenogenetically reproducing aphids form colonies of clone-mates, which are ideal to test the altruistic nature of anti-predatory defence behaviours. Many aphids release cornicle secretions when attacked by natural enemies such as parasitoids. These secretions contain an alarm pheromone that alerts neighbours (clone-mates) of danger, thereby providing indirect fitness benefits to the actor. However, contact with cornicle secretions also hampers an attacker and could provide direct fitness to the actor.

RESULTS

We tested the hypothesis that cornicle secretions are altruistic by assessing direct and indirect fitness consequences of smearing cornicle secretions onto an attacker, and by manipulating the number of clone-mates that could benefit from the behaviour. We observed parasitoids, Aphidius rhopalosiphi, foraging singly in patches of the cereal aphid Sitobion avenae of varied patch size (2, 6, and 12 aphids). Aphids that smeared parasitoids did not benefit from a reduced probability of parasitism, or increase the parasitoids' handling time. Smeared parasitoids, however, spent proportionately more time grooming and less time foraging, which resulted in a decreased host-encounter and oviposition rate within the host patch. In addition, individual smearing rate increased with the number of clone-mates in the colony.

CONCLUSIONS

Cornicle secretions of aphids were altruistic against parasitoids, as they provided no direct fitness benefits to secretion-releasing individuals, only indirect fitness benefits through neighbouring clone-mates. Moreover, the use of cornicle secretions was consistent with their altruistic nature, because the occurrence of this behaviour increased with the size of indirect fitness benefits, the number of clone-mates that can benefit. This study provides evidence for a case of kin-directed altruistic defence outside eusocial animals.

Dose-response analyses using restricted cubic spline functions in public health research

Taking into account a continuous exposure in regression models by using categorization, when non-linear dose-response associations are expected, have been widely criticized. As one alternative, restricted cubic spline (RCS) functions are powerful tools (i) to characterize a dose-response association between a continuous exposure and an outcome, (ii) to visually and/or statistically check the assumption of linearity of the association, and (iii) to minimize residual confounding when adjusting for a continuous exposure. Because their implementation with SAS® software is limited, we developed and present here an SAS macro that (i) creates an RCS function of continuous exposures, (ii) displays graphs showing the dose-response association with 95 per cent confidence interval between one main continuous exposure and an outcome when performing linear, logistic, or Cox models, as well as linear and logistic-generalized estimating equations, and (iii) provides statistical tests for overall and non-linear associations. We illustrate the SAS macro using the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data to investigate adjusted dose-response associations (with different models) between calcium intake and bone mineral density (linear regression), folate intake and hyperhomocysteinemia (logistic regression), and serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and cardiovascular mortality (Cox model).

Latent transition models with latent class predictors: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder subtypes and high school marijuana use

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder which is most often diagnosed in childhood with symptoms often persisting into adulthood. Elevated rates of substance use disorders have been evidenced among those with ADHD, but recent research focusing on the relationship between subtypes of ADHD and specific drugs is inconsistent. We propose a latent transition model (LTM) to guide our understanding of how drug use progresses, in particular marijuana use, while accounting for the measurement error that is often found in self-reported substance use data. We extend the LTM to include a latent class predictor to represent empirically derived ADHD subtypes that do not rely on meeting specific diagnostic criteria. We begin by fitting two separate latent class analysis (LCA) models by using second-order estimating equations: a longitudinal LCA model to define stages of marijuana use, and a cross-sectional LCA model to define ADHD subtypes. The LTM model parameters describing the probability of transitioning between the LCA-defined stages of marijuana use and the influence of the LCA-defined ADHD subtypes on these transition rates are then estimated by using a set of first-order estimating equations given the LCA parameter estimates. A robust estimate of the LTM parameter variance that accounts for the variation due to the estimation of the two sets of LCA parameters is proposed. Solving three sets of estimating equations enables us to determine the underlying latent class structures independently of the model for the transition rates and simplifying assumptions about the correlation structure at each stage reduces the computational complexity.

A conditional model of evidence-based decision making

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Efforts to describe how individual treatment decisions are informed by systematic knowledge have been hindered by a standard that gauges the quality of clinical decisions by their adherence to guidelines and evidence-based practices. This paper tests a new contextual standard that gauges the incorporation of knowledge into practice and develops a model of evidence-based decision making. Previous work found that the forecasted outcome of a treatment guideline exerts a highly significant influence on how it is used in making decisions. This study proposed that forecasted outcomes affect the recognition of a treatment scenario, and this recognition triggers distinct contextual decision strategies.

METHODS

Twenty-one volunteers from a psychiatric residency programme responded to 64 case vignettes, 16 in each of the four treatment scenarios. The vignettes represented a fully balanced within-subjects design that included guideline switching criteria and patient-specific factors. For each vignette, participants indicated whether they endorsed the guideline's recommendation.

RESULTS

Clinicians used consistent contextual decision strategies in responding to clearly positive or negative forecasts. When forecasts were more ambiguous or risky, their strategies became complex and relatively inconsistent.

CONCLUSION

The results support a three-step model of evidence-based decision making, in which clinicians recognize a decision scenario, apply a simple contextual strategy, then if necessary engage a more complex strategy to resolve discrepancies between general guidelines and specific cases. The paper concludes by noting study limitations and discussing implications of the model for future research in clinical and shared decision making, training and guideline development.

Changes in weather and the effects on pediatric asthma exacerbations

BACKGROUND

Pediatric asthma exacerbations may correlate with changes in weather, yet this relationship is not well defined.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effects of fluctuations in climatic factors (temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure) on pediatric asthma exacerbations.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed at 1 large urban hospital during a 2-year period (January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2005). Children presenting to the emergency department (ED) for an asthma exacerbation were included. Data on climactic factors, pollutants, and aeroallergens were collected daily. The relationship of daily (intraday) or between-day (interday) changes in climactic factors and asthma ED visits was evaluated using time series analysis, controlling for seasonality, air pollution, and aeroallergen exposure. The effects of climactic factors were evaluated on the day of admission (T=0) and up to 5 days before admission (T-5 through T-1).

RESULTS

There were 25,401 asthma ED visits. A 10% intraday increase in humidity on day T-1 or day T-2 was associated with approximately 1 additional ED visit for asthma (P < .001 and P = .01, respectively). Interday changes in humidity from day T - 3 to T-2 were also associated with more ED visits (P < .001). Interday changes in temperature from T-1 to T = 0 increased ED visits, with a 10 degrees F increase being associated with 1.8 additional visits (P = .006). No association was found with changes in barometric pressure.

CONCLUSION

Fluctuations in humidity and temperature, but not barometric pressure, appear to influence ED visits for pediatric asthma. The additional ED visits occur 1 to 2 days after the fluctuation.