Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma across a biological gradient of serum hepatitis B virus DNA level

Prevention in Hepatology

The prevention of liver disease has improved significantly in the last few decades, to the point that it can now be considered a true success story. The wide variety of interventions, including comprehensive vaccination strategies, novel medications, lifestyle changes, and even preventive surgeries, have reduced the morbidity and mortality of chronic liver diseases. However, the prevalence of chronic liver diseases is increasing worldwide. Currently, fatty liver disease alone is estimated to be present in as much as 30% of the adult population. Furthermore, there is a trend towards increasing incidences of chronic hepatitis B, and a global lack of success in efforts to eliminate chronic hepatitis C. Thus, improving and efficiently rolling out existing and successful prevention strategies for chronic liver diseases will play an essential role in healthcare throughout the upcoming decades. In this review, we summarize the current options and concepts for preventing chronic liver diseases, highlight their limitations, and provide an outlook on probable future developments to improve awareness, integrated care, and the analysis of big data.

Recent Advances in the Pathogenesis and Clinical Evaluation of Portal Hypertension in Chronic Liver Disease

In chronic liver disease, hepatic stellate cell activation and degeneration of liver sinusoidal endothelial cells lead to structural changes, which are secondary to fibrosis and the presence of regenerative nodules in the sinusoids, and to functional changes, which are related to vasoconstriction. The combination of such changes increases intrahepatic vascular resistance and causes portal hypertension. The subsequent increase in splanchnic and systemic hyperdynamic circulation further increases the portal blood flow, thereby exacerbating portal hypertension. In clinical practice, the hepatic venous pressure gradient is the gold-standard measure of portal hypertension; a value of ≥10 mm Hg is defined as clinically significant portal hypertension, which is severe and is associated with the risk of liver-related events. Hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement is somewhat invasive, so evidence on the utility of risk stratification by elastography and serum biomarkers is needed. The various stages of cirrhosis are associated with different outcomes. In viral hepatitis-related cirrhosis, viral suppression or elimination by nucleos(t)ide analog or direct-acting antivirals results in recompensation of liver function and portal pressure. However, careful follow-up should be continued, because some cases have residual clinically significant portal hypertension even after achieving sustained virologic response. In this study, we reviewed the current and future prospects for portal hypertension.

Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model

OBJECTIVES

Detailed simulation models are needed to assess strategies for prevention and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the world's leading cause of liver disease. We sought to develop and validate a simulation model of chronic HBV that incorporates virological, serological and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We developed a novel Monte Carlo simulation model (the HEPA-B Model) detailing the natural history of chronic HBV. We parameterised the model with epidemiological data from the Western Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. We simulated the evolution of HBV DNA, 'e' antigen (HBeAg) and surface antigen (HBsAg). We projected incidence of HBeAg loss, HBsAg loss, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death over 10-year and lifetime horizons. We stratified outcomes by five HBV DNA categories at the time of HBeAg loss, ranging from HBV DNA<300 copies/mL to >106 copies/mL. We tested goodness of fit using intraclass coefficients (ICC).

RESULTS

Model-projected incidence of HBeAg loss was 5.18% per year over lifetime (ICC, 0.969 (95% CI: 0.728 to 0.990)). For people in HBeAg-negative phases of infection, model-projected HBsAg loss ranged from 0.78% to 3.34% per year depending on HBV DNA level (ICC, 0.889 (95% CI: 0.542 to 0.959)). Model-projected incidence of cirrhosis was 0.29-2.09% per year (ICC, 0.965 (95% CI: 0.942 to 0.979)) and HCC incidence was 0.06-1.65% per year (ICC, 0.977 (95% CI: 0.962 to 0.986)). Over a lifetime simulation of HBV disease, mortality rates were higher for people with older age, higher HBV DNA level and liver-related complications, consistent with observational studies.

CONCLUSIONS

We simulated HBV DNA-stratified clinical outcomes with the novel HEPA-B Model and validated them to observational data. This model can be used to examine strategies of HBV prevention and management.

Fibrotic Burden in Patients With Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis Is Independently Associated With Poorer Kidney Outcomes

BACKGROUND

We investigated whether higher fibrotic burden was independently associated with poorer kidney outcomes in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 1691 patients with radiologically diagnosed HBV-related cirrhosis but without baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) who underwent transient elastography (TE) between March 2012 and August 2018 were selected. The study outcome was the composite of development of incident CKD, defined as the occurrence of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/minute/1.73 m2 or proteinuria (≥1+ on dipstick test) on 2 consecutive measurements during follow-up, 50% decline in eGFR or onset of end-stage kidney disease (initiation of chronic dialysis), or all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The mean age was 53.4 years and 1030 (60.9%) patients were male. During 8379 person-years of follow-up (median 5.2 years), 60 (3.5%) patients experienced study outcomes. When stratified according to TE-defined fibrotic burden, multivariable Cox models revealed that risk of poorer kidney outcomes was 2.77-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.16-6.63; P < .001) higher in patients with liver stiffness range indicating cirrhosis (≥11.7 kPa), compared to those without significant liver fibrosis (<7.9 kPa). These associations remained significant even after adjusting for vigorous confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher fibrotic burden assessed using TE was independently associated with poorer kidney outcomes in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.

Model-based hypothesis tests for the causal mediation of semi-competing risks

Analyzing the causal mediation of semi-competing risks has become important in medical research. Semi-competing risks refers to a scenario wherein an intermediate event may be censored by a primary event but not vice versa. Causal mediation analyses decompose the effect of an exposure on the primary outcome into an indirect (mediation) effect: an effect mediated through a mediator, and a direct effect: an effect not through the mediator. Here we proposed a model-based testing procedure to examine the indirect effect of the exposure on the primary event through the intermediate event. Under the counterfactual outcome framework, we defined a causal mediation effect using counting process. To assess statistical evidence for the mediation effect, we proposed two tests: an intersection-union test (IUT) and a weighted log-rank test (WLR). The test statistic was developed from a semi-parametric estimator of the mediation effect using a Cox proportional hazards model for the primary event and a series of logistic regression models for the intermediate event. We built a connection between the IUT and WLR. Asymptotic properties of the two tests were derived, and the IUT was determined to be a size [Formula: see text] test and statistically more powerful than the WLR. In numerical simulations, both the model-based IUT and WLR can properly adjust for confounding covariates, and the Type I error rates of the proposed methods are well protected, with the IUT being more powerful than the WLR. Our methods demonstrate the strongly significant effects of hepatitis B or C on the risk of liver cancer mediated through liver cirrhosis incidence in a prospective cohort study. The proposed method is also applicable to surrogate endpoint analyses in clinical trials.

A prediction nomogram for hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to develop and validate a new nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving antiviral therapy from real-world data.

METHODS

The nomogram was established based on a real-world retrospective study of 764 patients with HBV from October 2008 to July 2020. A predictive model for the incidence of HCC was developed by multivariable Cox regression, and a nomogram was constructed. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Risk group stratification was performed to assess the predictive capacity of the nomogram. The nomogram was compared to three current commonly used predictive models.

RESULTS

A total of 764 patients with HBV were recruited for this study. Age, family history of HCC, alcohol consumption, and Aspartate aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) were all independent risk predictors of HCC in CHB patients. The constructed nomogram had good discrimination with a C-index of 0.811. The calibration curve and DCA also proved the reliability and accuracy of the nomogram. Three risk groups (low, moderate, and high) with significantly different prognoses were identified (p < 0.001). The model's performance was significantly better than that of other risk models.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram was superior in predicting HCC risk among CHB patients who received antiviral treatment. The model can be utilized in clinical practice to aid decision-making on the strategy of long-term HCC surveillance, especially for moderate- and high-risk patients.

HBV elimination in Africa-Current status and challenges

1_n81kbjgsKaltura.

Risk of HCC decreases in HBV-related patients with cirrhosis acquired recompensation: A retrospective study based on Baveno VII criteria

BACKGROUND

Antiviral therapy improves the clinical outcomes of patients with HBV-related cirrhosis. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the incidence rate of HCC in patients with HBV-related recompensated, compensated, or decompensated cirrhosis based on the latest Baveno VII criteria.

METHODS

In this two-center retrospective study, HBV-related patients with cirrhosis were enrolled and treated with first-line nucleos(t)ide analogues therapy for at least 12 months. Participants were classified into 3 groups: (1) compensated group, (2) decompensated group, or (3) recompensated group according to Baveno VII criteria. Multivariate regression models and propensity score matching were used to identify the predictors of HCC.

RESULTS

Of the 404 patients recruited, during a median follow-up of 44.5 months (interquartile range 26.8, 57.0 months), 233 (57.7%), 100 (24.8%), and 71(17.6%) patients had compensated, recompensated, and decompensated cirrhosis. In total, 38 developed HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC development at 2, 4, and 6 years was 1.3%, 5.4%, and 20.0% in the compensated group, 1.2%, 5.2%, and 24.5% in the recompensated group, and 2.1%, 23.6%, and 41.8% in the decompensated group, respectively. In the multivariate Cox regression model, compared with the recompensated group, the decompensated group had a significant increased risk for the development of HCC (aHR 2.55; 95% CI: 1.240-5.240; p = 0.027), while the compensated group had similar HCC risk for the development of HCC (aHR 1.41; 95% CI: 0.540-3.730; p = 0.835). Propensity score-matching analysis between the recompensated and compensated groups (84 pairs) and propensity score-matching analysis between the recompensated and decompensated groups (62 pairs) showed similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving recompensation reduced the risk of HCC in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis, while the risk remained comparable to that of compensated cirrhosis.

Changing spectrum and mortality disparities of etiology of liver cirrhosis in Beijing, China

Liver cirrhosis remains a major health concern globally, but its epidemiology and etiology evolve with time. However, the changing pattern in etiology and cause of liver-related mortality for patients with cirrhosis are not fully elucidated. Herein, our aim was to characterize the temporal trend of the etiological spectrum and evaluate the impact of etiology on liver-related death among patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC) in Beijing, China. Clinical profiles of patients with CC discharged between January 2008 and December 2015 were retrieved from the Beijing hospital discharge database. The mortalities of different etiologies of cirrhosis were calculated. The risks of readmission and liver-related death associated with etiologies were evaluated by the Cox regression model. A total of 23 978 cirrhotic patients were included. The predominant cause was hepatitis B virus (HBV) (58.93%), followed by alcohol (21.35%), autoimmune (14.85%), miscellaneous etiologies (3.55%), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) (1.32%). From 2008 to 2015, the proportion of HBV-related cirrhosis decreased to 28.11%. Meanwhile, the proportions of autoimmune- and miscellaneous-related cirrhosis increased to 28.54% and 13.11%. The risk of liver-related death ranked the highest in patients with miscellaneous cirrhosis, followed by HBV-related cirrhosis, alcohol-related cirrhosis, autoimmune-related cirrhosis, and HCV-related cirrhosis. The 5-year rates of liver-related death were 22.56%, 18.99%, 18.77%, 16.01%, and 10.76%, respectively. HBV-related cirrhosis caused the highest risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-related death, whereas alcohol- and miscellaneous-related cirrhosis caused higher risks of decompensation (DC)-related death than HBV-related cirrhosis, with hazard ratios of 1.35 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24-1.48) and 1.20 (95% CI: 1.03-1.40), respectively. HBV remained a common cause of liver cirrhosis but gradually decreased. Mortality disparities existed in etiologies, with higher risks of HCC-related death in HBV-related cirrhosis, and DC-related death in alcohol- and miscellaneous-related cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.

Antiviral Therapy Favors a Lower Risk of Liver Cirrhosis in HBeAg-negative Chronic Hepatitis B with Normal Alanine Transaminase and HBV DNA Positivity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Direct evidence on the outcomes of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with normal alanine transaminase after long-term antiviral treatment is lacking.

METHODS

HBeAg-negative patients with normal ALT and positive HBV DNA (≥20 IU/mL) were retrospectively enrolled. The endpoints included virological response (HBV DNA<100 IU/mL), changes in aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and the incidence of liver nodules, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

RESULTS

This cohort (n=194) was divided into three subgroups, untreated (n=67), treatment-continued (n=87), and treatment-discontinued patients (n=40), with a median follow-up of 54 months. The treatment-continued group achieved 100% (95% CI: 94.7-100) virological response, and significantly reduced APRI and FIB-4 scores (both p<0.001). The risk of liver nodules and cirrhosis in that group was reduced by 76% (HR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.11-0.54, p<0.001) and 89% (HR: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.14-0.91, p=0.041) vs. the untreated group and by 77% (HR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.10-0.49, p<0.001) and 95% (HR: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.01-0.44, p=0.006) vs. the treatment-discontinued group. For patients with HBV DNA≥2,000 IU/mL, adherence to treatment lowered the risks of liver cirrhosis by 92% (95% CI: 0.01-0.67) and 93% (95% CI: 0.01-0.53) vs. the untreated and treatment-discontinued patients, respectively. No patient adhering to treatment developed HCC, but one in each of the remaining groups did.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuous nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) treatment has a satisfactory effectiveness and helps to lower the risk of liver cirrhosis in HBeAg-negative CHB patients with normal alanine transaminase, especially in those with HBV DNA≥2,000 IU/mL.

A decision-making model for prediction of a stable disease course in chronic hepatitis B patients

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are regularly monitored for HBV DNA and liver enzymes in order to assess disease progression and the need for antiviral therapy. Identifying patients with a stable course of disease can potentially prolong the intervals between visits, withhold unnecessary tests and save money. Accordingly, we aimed to find predictors for a stable disease course in patients with CHB. 579 patients with CHB, who were followed in a tertiary referral center between January 2004-December 2018, were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with low and steady viral load titer (< 2000 IU/ml) and normal ALT levels (< 40 IU/ml) in 6 consecutive clinic encounters were considered to have a stable course of CHB. A stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis and a decision tree model were used to identify predictors of a stable disease course. Following exclusion of ineligible patients, a total of 220 patients were included in the final analysis. 64/220 patients had a stable disease course. Patients with a stable disease were older (62.99 ± 12.36 Vs. 54.07 ± 13.64, p < 0.001) with a higher percentage of women (53% vs. 38%) and had lower baseline levels of AST, ALT and viral load (VL). In a multivariate analysis, age (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.98), baseline ALT (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.1) and VL (OR 1.05 95% CI 1.02-1.08), were significantly associated with a stable disease. In a decision tree model, patients 46-67 years old, with baseline VL < 149 IU/mL and ALT < 40 IU/mL had the best probability (91%) for a stable disease course over 4.4 ± 2.2 years. We conclude that integrating patients' age with baseline VL and ALT can predict a stable disease course in patients with CHB off treatment.

eALT-F: A New Non-Invasive Staging Method to Identify Medium to High-Risk Patients with HCC from Ultra-High HBV Viral Load Population - China, 2010-2023

Background

The objective of this study was to examine the clinical characteristics of individuals with ultra-high hepatitis B virus (HBV) viral load and develop a novel staging method for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) that can more effectively identify patients with medium to high hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk.

Methods

A total of 2,118 patients with HBV DNA >1×107 IU/mL who visited Peking University People's Hospital between January 2010 and March 2023 were enrolled retrospectively. Clinical data from the first visit were obtained and analyzed. The traditional phases and new 'eALT-F' stages were compared to evaluate the risk of HCC.

Results

In the overall patients, more than one-third of the patients were under 30 years old. Additionally, a small proportion of older people (>60 years) also had ultra-high HBV viral load (4.3%). 9.1% and 6.7% of individuals with ultra-high HBV viral load showed FIB-4>3.25 and aMAP≥50, respectively. In the traditional stages of CHB, which are based on HBeAg and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) [the upper limit of normal (ULN) ALT level at 40 IU/L for both men and women], regardless of phase, a certain proportion of patients were at risk of developing HCC (4.1%, 6.4%, 25.0%, and 20.3%). However, in the new 'eALT-F' stages, which are based on HBeAg, ALT (the ULN of ALT level at 30 IU/L for men and 19 IU/L for women), and/or FIB-4 levels (>1.45), aMAP≥50 was only observed in chronic hepatitis patients with positive or negative HBeAg (6.4% and 22.1%, respectively).

Conclusions

The 'eALT-F' staging method, based on HBeAg, ALT (males: the ULN of ALT was 30 IU/L, females: 19 IU/L) and/or FIB-4 levels, was more effective in identifying medium to high-risk patients with HCC from patients with ultra-high HBV viral load than the traditional staging methods.

Efficacy and safety of tenofovir alafenamide in patients with chronic hepatitis B exhibiting suboptimal response to entecavir

BACKGROUND

Entecavir (ETV) is a potent and safe antiviral agent for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB); however, some patients may exhibit suboptimal response or resistance to ETV. Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is a novel tenofovir prodrug with improved pharmacokinetics and reduced renal and bone toxicity compared with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate.

AIM

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of switching from ETV to TAF in patients with CHB exhibiting suboptimal response to ETV.

METHODS

A total of 60 patients with CHB who had been treated with ETV for at least 12 mo and had persistent or recurrent viremia [Hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA ≥ 20 IU/mL] or partial virologic response (HBV DNA < 20 IU/mL, but detectable) were enrolled in the study. The patients were randomly assigned to either continue ETV (0.5 mg) daily or switch to TAF (25 mg) daily for 48 wk. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients who achieved a virologic response (HBV DNA level < 20 IU/mL) at week 48. Secondary endpoints included changes in serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg), and anti-HBe levels, and renal and bone safety parameters.

RESULTS

At week 48, the proportion of patients who achieved a virologic response was significantly higher in the TAF group than in the ETV group (93.3% vs 66.7%, P = 0.012). The mean reduction in HBV DNA from baseline was also significantly greater in the TAF group than in the ETV group (-3.8 vs -2.4 Log10 IU/mL, P < 0.001). The rates of ALT normalization, HBeAg loss, HBeAg seroconversion, and HBsAg loss were not found to significantly differ between the two groups. None of the patients developed genotypic resistance to ETV or TAF. Both drugs were well tolerated, with no serious adverse events or discontinuations caused by adverse events. No significant changes were observed in the estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum creatinine level, or urine protein-to-creatinine ratio in either group. The TAF group had a significantly lower decrease in bone mineral density at the lumbar spine and hip than the ETV group (-0.8% vs -2.1%, P = 0.004; -0.6% vs -1.8%, P = 0.007, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Switching from ETV to TAF is effective and safe for patients with CHB exhibiting a suboptimal response to ETV and may prevent further viral resistance and reduce renal and bone toxicity.

The role of sex hormones and receptors in HBV infection and development of HBV-related HCC

Gender disparity in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related diseases has been extensively documented. Epidemiological studies consistently reported that males have a higher prevalence of HBV infection and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Further investigations have revealed that sex hormone-related signal transductions play a significant role in gender disparity. Sex hormone axes showed significantly different responses to virus entry and replication. The sex hormones axes change the HBV-specific immune responses and antitumor immunity. Additionally, Sex hormone axes showed different effects on the development of HBV-related disease. But the role of sex hormones remains controversial, and researchers have not reached a consensus on the role of sex hormones and the use of hormone therapies in HCC treatment. In this review, we aim to summarize the experimental findings on sex hormones and provide a comprehensive understanding of their roles in the development of HCC and their implications for hormone-related HCC treatment.

Prognostic factors of nivolumab in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most common cancer globally, and a major unresolved medical issue. According to the guideline recommendations of the European Association for the Study of the Liver in 2018 and the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Guideline, nivolumab is a reasonable option for appropriate advanced stage HCC.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

We searched the PubMed, Embase and CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) databases for all articles within a range of published years from 2010 to 2020 of nivolumab in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and carried out this meta-analysis on all published studies to estimate prognostic factors of nivolumab in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Finally, 6 studies with 627 advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with nivolumab met the inclusion criteria for this study. Our results indicated that α-fetoprotein (AFP), eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child‑Pugh Class, portal vein invasion, protein induced by vitamin K absence‑II (PIVKA‑II), and albumin‑bilirubin (ALBI) score were prognostic factor of nivolumab in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma; however, hepatitis C virus (HBV) infection, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and extrahepatic metastasis were not significant prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis indicated the potential prognostic factor of nivolumab in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. However, ongoing clinical and translational research may provide us a better understanding of the prognostic factor and mechanisms.

Antiviral therapy reduces hepatocellular carcinoma through suppressing hepatitis B virus replication may improve ER stress, mitochondrial and metabolic dysfunctions and decrease p62 in hybridized mice with single HBV transgene and miR-122

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) hijacks autophagy for its replication. Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) treatment suppressed HBV replication and reduced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence. However, the use of NUCs in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with normal or minimally elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels is still debated. Animal models are crucial for studying the unanswered issue and evaluating new therapies. MicroRNA-122 (miR-122), which regulates fatty acid and cholesterol metabolism, is downregulated during hepatitis and HCC progression. The reciprocal inhibition of miR-122 with HBV highlights its role in HCC development as a tumor suppressor. By crossbreeding HBV-transgenic mice with miR-122 knockout mice, we generated a hybrid mouse model with a high incidence of HCC up to 89% and normal ALT levels before HCC. The model exhibited early-onset hepatic steatosis, progressive liver fibrosis, and impaired late-phase autophagy. Metabolomics and microarray analysis identified metabolic signatures, including dysregulation of lipid metabolism, inflammation, genomic instability, the Warburg effect, reduced TCA cycle flux, energy deficiency, and impaired free radical scavenging. Antiviral treatment reduced HCC incidence in hybrid mice by approximately 30-35% compared to untreated mice. This effect was linked to the activation of ER stress-responsive transcription factor ATF4, clearance of autophagosome cargo p62, and suppression of the CHOP-mediated apoptosis pathway. In summary, this study suggests that despite minimal ALT elevation, HBV replication can lead to liver injury. Endoplasmic reticulum stress, reduced miR-122 levels, mitochondrial and metabolic dysfunctions, blocking protective autophagy resulting in p62 accumulation, apoptosis, fibrosis, and HCC. Antiviral may improve the above-mentioned pathogenesis through HBV suppression.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.

Serum protein biomarkers for HCC risk prediction in HIV/HBV co-infected people: a clinical proteomic study using mass spectrometry

Background

HBV coinfection is frequent in people living with HIV (PLWH) and is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While risk prediction methods for HCC in patients with HBV monoinfection have been proposed, suitable biomarkers for early diagnosis of HCC in PLWH remain uncommon.

Methods

Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was used to examine serum protein alterations in HCC and non-HCC patients with HIV and HBV co-infection. Gene Ontology (GO), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), and Disease Ontology (DO) enrichment analysis were performed on the differentially expressed proteins (DEPs). The risk prediction model was created using five-cross-validation and LASSO regression to filter core DEPs.

Results

A total of 124 DEPs were discovered, with 95 proteins up-regulated and 29 proteins down-regulated. Extracellular matrix organization and membrane component were the DEPs that were most abundant in the categories of biological processes (BP) and cellular components (CC). Proteoglycans in cancer were one of the top three DEPs primarily enriched in the KEGG pathway, and 60.0% of DEPs were linked to various neoplasms in terms of DO enrichment. Eleven proteins, including GAPR1, PLTP, CLASP2, IGHV1-69D, IGLV5-45, A2M, VNN1, KLK11, ANPEP, DPP4 and HYI, were chosen as the core DEPs, and a nomogram was created to predict HCC risk.

Conclusion

In HIV/HBV patients with HCC, several differential proteins can be detected in plasma by mass spectrometry, which can be used as screening markers for early diagnosis and risk prediction of HCC. Monitoring protease expression differences can help in the diagnosis and prognosis of HCC.

Patient Biochemistry and Treatment Need in Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection Across Three Continents: Retrospective Cross-Sectional Cohort Studies

INTRODUCTION

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is associated with significant global morbidity and mortality. Low treatment rates are observed in patients living with HBV; the reasons for this are unclear. This study sought to describe patients' demographic, clinical and biochemical characteristics across three continents and their associated treatment need.

METHODS

This retrospective cross-sectional post hoc analysis of real-world data used four large electronic databases from the United States, United Kingdom and China (specifically Hong Kong and Fuzhou). Patients were identified by first evidence of chronic HBV infection in a given year (their index date) and characterized. An algorithm was designed and applied, wherein patients were categorized as treated, untreated but indicated for treatment and untreated and not indicated for treatment based on treatment status and demographic, clinical, biochemical and virological characteristics (age; evidence of fibrosis/cirrhosis; alanine aminotransferase [ALT] levels, HCV/HIV coinfection and HBV virology markers).

RESULTS

In total, 12,614 US patients, 503 UK patients, 34,135 patients from Hong Kong and 21,614 from Fuzhou were included. Adults (99.4%) and males (59.0%) predominated. Overall, 34.5% of patients were treated at index (range 15.9-49.6%), with nucleos(t)ide analogue monotherapy most commonly prescribed. The proportion of untreated-but-indicated patients ranged from 12.9% in Hong Kong to 18.2% in the UK; almost two-thirds of these patients (range 61.3-66.7%) had evidence of fibrosis/cirrhosis. A quarter (25.3%) of untreated-but-indicated patients were aged ≥ 65 years.

CONCLUSION

This large real-world dataset demonstrates that chronic hepatitis B infection remains a global health concern; despite the availability of effective suppressive therapy, a considerable proportion of predominantly adult patients apparently indicated for treatment are currently untreated, including many patients with fibrosis/cirrhosis. Causes of disparity in treatment status warrant further investigation.

Efficacy and Safety of Antiviral Therapy for Immune-tolerant Hepatitis B Viral Infection in Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection burden in children remains a pressing public health concern. Whether antiviral therapy should be administered to children with HBV in the immune-tolerant phase remains controversial. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate antiviral therapy efficacy and safety in children with immune-tolerant hepatitis B (ITHB).

METHODS

A search was conducted in multiple databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, CBM, CNKI and Wanfang Data) to identify clinical trials examining antiviral therapy efficacy and safety in children (1-18 years) with ITHB viral infection from inception to February 2023. Outcomes were calculated separately for controlled and single-arm studies.

RESULTS

Nine trials (442 patients), including 2 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 3 non-RCTs and 4 single-arm studies, were included in this meta-analysis. In the RCTs, antiviral therapy group exhibited greater rates of HBsAg loss [risk ratio (RR) = 6.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.67-22.31, P Z-test = 0.006], HBsAg serologic response (RR = 5.29, 95% CI: 1.47-19.07, P Z-test = 0.011) and HBeAg loss (RR = 3.00, 95% CI: 1.35-6.66, P Z-test = 0.007) compared with the control group at the end of follow-up. In single-arm studies, the pooled incidences of HBsAg loss, HBeAg loss and HBsAg seroconversion were 24% (95% CI: -0.1% to 48%), 24% (95% CI: -0.1% to 48%) and 24% (95% CI: -5% to 52%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Current evidence suggests the effectiveness of antiviral therapy in children with HBV infection in the immune-tolerant stage, with few serious adverse events. Due to the limited quality and number of included studies, more high-quality studies are required to validate our findings.

Cabozantinib inhibits HBV-RNA transcription by decreasing STAT3 binding to the enhancer region of cccDNA

BACKGROUND

Precision medicine and customized therapeutics based on the features of each patient are important for maximizing therapeutic effects. Because most cases of HCC occur in the damaged liver through various etiologies, such as hepatitis virus infection, steatohepatitis, and autoimmune hepatitis, there should be a rationale for the choice of therapeutic options based on these etiologies. Although cabozantinib, an oral multikinase inhibitor, has demonstrated clinical effectiveness in advanced HCC, subgroup analyses showed a lower HR for death in HBV-related HCC. This study aimed to determine the therapeutic effects of cabozantinib in HBV-related HCC.

METHODS

Using HBV infection models and gene knockout cells, we determined the crucial signaling axis responsible for the effects of cabozantinib on HBV. A chromatin immunoprecipitation assay was performed to determine the interaction between the signaling molecules and HBV DNA. Agonists and inhibitors were used for confirmation.

RESULTS

Cabozantinib inhibited HBV replication through the HGF-mesenchymal-epithelial transition factor-signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (MET-STAT3) signaling axis. The importance of STAT3 in viral replication has been confirmed using gene-edited STAT3 knockout cells. The chromatin immunoprecipitation assay revealed that the binding levels of phosphorylated STAT3 to enhancer region 1 of HBV covalently closed circular DNA were significantly increased by HGF stimulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Cabozantinib has favorable therapeutic effects on HBV-related HCC because it inhibits HCC not only directly but also indirectly by means of inhibitory effects on HBV.

Test All for Hepatitis B Virus: Link to Care and Treatment if Quantitative DNA Positive, Vaccinate if Susceptible

Hepatitis B infection affects approximately 262 million people worldwide and is responsible for 900,000 deaths annually. This article reviews the major factors limiting HBV elimination, which includes limited linkage to care and complicated HBV testing and treatment guidelines. The article then provides solutions to these pressing issues.

Chronic Hepatitis B: Treat all Who Are Viremic?

The main aim of antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is to prevent disease progression and reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In general, treatment is recommended for select patient groups viewed as being at higher risk of developing adverse outcomes from CHB. However, patients who do not meet treatment criteria under current international guidelines may still benefit from antiviral therapy to reduce CHB-related complications. Moreover, well-tolerated antiviral drugs that are highly effective at suppressing viral replication are now widely available, and withholding therapy from patients with viremia is increasingly controversial. In this article, we review traditional treatment paradigms and argue the merits of expanding treatment eligibility to patients with CHB who do not meet current treatment criteria.

The glucose metabolic reprogramming in hepatitis B virus infection and hepatitis B virus associated diseases

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is closely related to viral hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. HBV infection can reprogram metabolism processes of the host cells including glucose metabolism. The aberrant glucose metabolism may aid in viral infection and immune escape and may contribute to liver associated pathology. In this review, we discussed the interplay between HBV infection and glucose metabolism, which may provide new insights into HBV infection and pathology, novel intervention targets for HBV-related diseases.

Unified semicompeting risks analysis of hepatitis natural history through mediation modeling

Natural history of hepatitis B or C is comprised of multiple milestones such as liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. To fully characterize its natural course, semicompeting risks represent a common problem where liver cirrhosis and liver cancer are both of interest, but only the former may be censored by the latter. Copula, frailty and multistate models serve as well-established analytics for semicompeting risks. Here, we cast the semicompeting risks in a mediation framework, with liver cirrhosis as a mediator and liver cancer as an outcome. We define the indirect and direct effects as the effects of an exposure on the liver cancer incidence mediated and not mediated through liver cirrhosis, respectively. With the estimands derived as conditional probabilities, we derive respective expressions under the copula, frailty, and multistate models. Next, we propose estimators based on nonparametric maximum likelihood or U-statistics and establish their asymptotic results. Numerical studies demonstrate that the efficiency of copula models leads to potential bias due to model misspecification. Moreover, the robustness of frailty models is accompanied by a loss in efficiency, and multistate models balance the efficiency and robustness. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed methods by a hepatitis study, showing that hepatitis B and C lead to a higher incidence of liver cancer by increasing liver cirrhosis incidence. Thus, mediation modeling provides a unified framework that accommodates various semicompeting risks models.

The Epidemiology, Transmission, Genotypes, Replication, Serologic and Nucleic Acid Testing, Immunotolerance, and Reactivation of Hepatitis B Virus

The epidemiology of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has drastically changed in recent decades due to public health initiatives, including universal infant vaccination programs,urbanization driving global travel, and migration patterns. Despite screening of pregnant women and newborns significantly reducing the rate of perinatal transmission in certain parts of the world, other, perhaps more uncommon, routes (e.g., parenteral) have led to outbreaks in specific areas affected by the opioid epidemic and injection drug use. Although our current understanding of the effect of genetic variants of HBV is lacking, we review current knowledge and patterns of genetic variants with geographical predominance, pathophysiology, and clinical manifestations. Serologic and molecular markers are used to screen, identify phase and activity of infection, and monitor response to antivirals and/or reactivation. This review will provide the most up-to-date summary of the epidemiology, transmission, genotype, replication, and current methods of screening to follow the various phases of HBV, including immunotolerance and reactivation.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Hepatitis: Advanced Diagnosis and Management with a Focus on the Prevention of Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Though the world-wide hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination program has been well completed for almost thirty years in many nations, almost HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs in unvaccinated middle-aged and elderly adults. Apparently, treating 80% of qualified subjects could decrease HBV-related mortality by 65% in a short period. Nevertheless, globally, only 2.2% of CHB patients undergo antiviral therapy. The HBV markers related to HCC occurrence and prevention are as follows: the HCC risk is the highest at a baseline of HBV DNA of 6-7 log copies/mL, and it is the lowest at a baseline of an HBV DNA level of >8 log copies/mL and ≤4 log copies/mL (parabolic, and not linear pattern). The titer of an HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg) reflecting the amount of HBV covalently closed circular DNA (ccc DNA) in the liver is related to HCC occurrence. The seroclearance of HBs antigen (HBsAg) is more crucial than HBV DNA negativity for the prevention of HCC. In terms of the secondary prevention of hepatitis B-related HCC involving antiviral therapies with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs), unsolved issues include the definition of the immune-tolerant phase; the optimal time for starting antiviral therapies with NAs; the limits of increased aminotransferase (ALT) levels as criteria for therapy in CHB patients; the normalization of ALT levels with NAs and the relation to the risk of HCC; and the relation between serum HBV levels and the risk of HCC. Moreover, the first-line therapy with NAs including entecavir (ETV), tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) remains to be clarified. Discussed here, therefore, are the recent findings of HBV markers related to HCC occurrence and prevention, unsolved issues, and the current secondary antiviral therapy for the prevention of HBV-related HCC.

Lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma with tenofovir than entecavir in antiviral treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis B patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis involving 90,897 participants

Entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) are equally recommended as first-line treatments for antiviral treatment-naïve (ART-naïve) chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients by practice guidelines because of their similarly high antiviral efficacy and low resistance rate. However, whether one is superior to the other in terms of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prevention is currently largely controversial. We aimed to identify and synthesize these existing studies regarding the HCC risk of these two highly potent antivirals in treatment-naïve CHB patients. PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library were searched for studies between January 1, 2012 and June 25, 2022. These studies used ETV monotherapy and/or TDF monotherapy to treat ART-naïve CHB patients and reported the incidence of HCC. The extracted data were analyzed using a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models. The HCC incidence difference was expressed as hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). A total of 17 studies with 90,897 ART-naïve CHB patients (ETV = 60,980 vs TDF = 29,917) were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with ETV, TDF was associated with a significant lower cumulative incidence of HCC (HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.56-0.76). No significant heterogeneity or publication bias was found among the included studies (I2 = 48.1%, Begg's p = 0.363 and Egger's p = 0.748). TDF is associated with a lower risk of HCC compared with entecavir in ART-naïve CHB patients. The results suggest that TDF may be a better option for ART-naïve CHB patients with high HCC risks.

Safety considerations for withdrawal of nucleos(t)ide analogues in patients with chronic hepatitis B: First, do no harm

Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) are widely used to treat hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, but they cannot eradicate the virus and treatment duration can be lifelong if the endpoint is set at seroclearance of the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). As an alternative strategy, finite NA therapy without the prerequisite of HBsAg seroclearance has been proposed to allow treatment cessation in patients with sustained undetectable HBV viremia for two to three years. However, reactivation of viral replication almost always follows NA withdrawal. Whereas HBV reactivation might facilitate HBsAg seroclearance in some, it could lead to serious acute flare-ups in a certain proportion of patients. Occurrence and consequences of NA withdrawal flares are complicated with various factors involving the virus, host, and treatment. Accurate risk prediction for severe flares following NA cessation is essential to ensure patient safety. The risks of life-threatening flares in patients who discontinued NA according to the stopping rules of current guidelines or local reimbursement policies have recently been quantitatively estimated in large-scale studies, which also provided empirical evidence to help identify vulnerable patients at risk of devastating outcomes. Moreover, risk predictors were further explored and validated to hopefully aid in patient selection and management. In this narrative review with a focus on patient safety, we summarize and discuss current literature on the incidence of severe flares following NA cessation, risk stratification for candidate selection, rules of posttreatment monitoring, and indications for treatment resumption. We also share our thoughts on the limitations of existing knowledge and suggestions for future research.

Gene variation profile and it's potential correlation with clinical characteristics in HBV-associated HCC patients of Sichuan Han nationality in China

OBJECTIVE

To explore the correlation between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) gene variation profile and clinical characteristics in Han nationality with HBV infection in Sichuan province.

METHODS

The clinical data and HCC tissues were obtained from the enrolled patients. Whole exome sequencing and bioinformatics analysis were performed on formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded samples from HCC. Tumor mutational burden (TMB) was measured by an algorithm developed in-house.

RESULTS

Sixteen high-frequency mutated genes with differential expressions were identified by WES. SMG1 gene variation could be positively correlated with satellite lesions. AMY2B and RGPD4 gene mutation seemed to have a greater chance of vascular invasion. The patients with TATDN1 variation have bigger diameters and greater chances of vascular and microvascular invasion (all P < 0.05). Univariate analysis indicated patients with gene TATDN1 variation had worse prognoses both in disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). In addition, the enrichment analysis showed many pathways, including the cell cycle pathway, viral oncogene pathway, MAPK pathway, PI3K-AKT pathway, etc., may be associated with HCC.

CONCLUSION

This study explores the gene variation profile of HCC patients with HBV infection in Han nationality of Sichuan Province for the first time, which confirmed the existence of some high-frequency mutated genes and the possibility that the gene variations are involved in the tumorigenesis of HCC through multiple signal pathways. Also, patients with TATDN1 wild type showed a trend of better prognosis both in DFS and OS.

Prognostic role of computed tomography analysis using deep learning algorithm in patients with chronic hepatitis B viral infection

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is paramount for effective management. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) analysis using deep learning algorithms in patients with CHB.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 2,169 patients with CHB without hepatic decompensation who underwent contrast-enhanced abdominal CT for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance between January 2005 and June 2016. Liver and spleen volumes and body composition measurements including subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and skeletal muscle indices were acquired from CT images using deep learning-based fully automated organ segmentation algorithms. We assessed the significant predictors of HCC, hepatic decompensation, diabetes mellitus (DM), and overall survival (OS) using Cox proportional hazard analyses.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 103.0 months, HCC (n=134, 6.2%), hepatic decompensation (n=103, 4.7%), DM (n=432, 19.9%), and death (n=120, 5.5%) occurred. According to the multivariate analysis, standardized spleen volume significantly predicted HCC development (hazard ratio [HR]=1.01, P=0.025), along with age, sex, albumin and platelet count. Standardized spleen volume (HR=1.01, P<0.001) and VAT index (HR=0.98, P=0.004) were significantly associated with hepatic decompensation along with age and albumin. Furthermore, VAT index (HR=1.01, P=0.001) and standardized spleen volume (HR=1.01, P=0.001) were significant predictors for DM, along with sex, age, and albumin. SAT index (HR=0.99, P=0.004) was significantly associated with OS, along with age, albumin, and MELD.

CONCLUSION

Deep learning-based automatically measured spleen volume, VAT, and SAT indices may provide various prognostic information in patients with CHB.

Blueprint to hepatitis B elimination in China: A modelling analysis of clinical strategies

Background & Aims

Globally, one-third of individuals infected with HBV live in China. Eliminating HBV in China would therefore be paramount in achieving the World Health Organization's (WHO's) targets of viral hepatitis elimination as a worldwide public health threat.

Methods

We constructed a dynamic HBV transmission model in China, structured by age and sex. We calibrated the model by HBsAg prevalence, acute HBV incidence, and nationally reported HBV-related cancer mortality. We investigated seven intervention scenarios (A-G) based on assumptions in diagnostic, linkage-to-care, and treatment coverages in achieving the WHO's HBV elimination goals.

Results

With the status quo, HBsAg prevalence among children 1-4 years would reduce to 0.09% (95% CI 0.09-0.10%) by 2025; acute HBV incidence would drop to <2/100,000 person-years by 2024, achieving the elimination target of 90% incidence reduction. Nonetheless, China would not achieve a 65% reduction target in HBV-related mortality until 2059 with 9.98 (95% CI 9.27-10.70) million HBV-related deaths occurred by 2100. If China achieves 90% diagnostic and 80% treatment coverages (scenario E), HBV elimination would be achieved 8 years earlier, potentially saving 1.98 (95% CI 1.83-2.12) million lives. With more effective therapies for HBV control in preventing cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, elimination targets could be achieved in 2048 (scenario F) and 2038 (scenario G), additionally saving 3.59 (95% CI 3.37-3.82) and 5.19 (95% CI 4.83-5.55) million lives, respectively.

Conclusions

Eliminating HBV will require interventional strategies to improve diagnostic, linkage-to-care, and treatment coverages. Developing novel therapies will be crucial in further reducing HBV-related mortality and removing HBV as a public health threat.

Impact and Implications

This study explores the key developments and optimal intervention strategies needed to achieve WHO hepatitis B elimination targets by 2030 in China. It highlights that China can realise the HBV elimination targets in the incidence by 2025, and by upscaling diagnostic, linkage-to-care, and treatment coverages, up to 2 million lives could potentially be saved from HBV-related deaths.

Concept of HBV and HCV as a risk factor and prevention of viral hepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents one of the most common cancers worldwide, and it is a very important reason for cancer-related death. Infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) is considered the major leading cause of HCC. The pathophysiology of HB and HC viral-related HCC includes chronic inflammation, deorganization of cell signaling pathways, and oxidative stress. Contrary to HCV, HBV is oncogenic by itself, due to its integration into the DNA of cell. Six months of ultrasound monitoring is recommended for high-risk patients. Using antiviral drugs to manage viral hepatitis decreases the risk of evolution and reoccurrence of HCC. Also, effective preventive measures are very important in decreasing the risk of HCC. The prevention involves primary prevention which is based on HBV vaccination, treatment of acute infection, and eliminating the route of transmission, while secondary prevention is based on using antiviral drugs against HBV and HCV infection to prevent the progress of disease into carcinoma. However, tertiary prevention involves treating the carcinoma to prevent the reoccurrence of the cancer.

Association between daily aspirin therapy and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma according to metabolic risk factor burden in non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Several studies have demonstrated chemopreventive effects of aspirin against hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

AIMS

To investigate the associations of aspirin use with risks of HCC, liver-related mortality, and major bleeding according to metabolic risk factor burden among non-cirrhotic patients with CHB METHODS: Using the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, we identified 282,611 non-cirrhotic adults with CHB. Data on obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, and hypercholesterolemia were collected. Subjects were stratified into lower and higher metabolic risk groups (≤2 and ≥3 risk factors, respectively). Propensity score-matched cohorts of aspirin users and non-users were generated. Risks of HCC, liver-related death and major bleeding were analyzed.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up of 7.4 years, positive associations between metabolic risk factor burden and outcomes were verified (all ptrend  < 0.001). In the lower metabolic risk group (13,104 pairs), the association between aspirin use and HCC risk was not significant after multivariable adjustment (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR]: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.84-1.03); however, aspirin use was associated with elevated major bleeding risk (aSHR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.08-1.39). In the higher metabolic risk group (2984 pairs), aspirin use was associated with reduced risks of HCC (aSHR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.57-0.91) and liver-related mortality (aSHR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.50-0.96) without an increase in risk of major bleeding (aSHR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.79-1.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Aspirin therapy was associated with reduced risks of HCC and liver-related death without excess risk of major bleeding, in non-cirrhotic patients with CHB who had a higher metabolic risk factor burden.

Tenofovir alafenamide and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Antiviral therapy may attenuate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to explore how tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) affect HCC risk in patients with CHB.

METHODS

The REACH-B, aMAP, and mPAGE-B models were utilized to assess HCC risk in patients with CHB from two global randomized-controlled trials evaluating the impact of TAF vs. TDF treatment. Standard incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using data from the REACH-B model as a ratio of observed HCC cases in the TAF- or TDF-treated patients vs. predicted HCC cases for untreated historical controls. Proportions of treated patients shifting aMAP and mPAGE-B risk categories between baseline and Week 240 were calculated.

RESULTS

Of the 1,632 patients (TAF, n = 1,093; TDF, n = 539) followed for up to 300 weeks, 22 HCC cases developed. Those receiving TAF had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals receiving TDF: 0.32 (p <0.001) vs. 0.56 (p = 0.06). In the general study population, individuals without cirrhosis at baseline had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals with cirrhosis at baseline: 0.37 (p <0.001) vs. 0.58 (p = 0.15). Of the patients at low risk of HCC at baseline, the majority (97%) remained low risk by mPAGE-B and aMAP scoring at Week 240. Among those at medium or high risk at baseline, substantial portions shifted to a lower risk category by Week 240 (mPAGE-B: 22% and 42%; aMAP: 39% and 63%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This evaluation provides evidence that treatment with TAF or TDF can reduce HCC risk in patients with CHB, particularly in patients without cirrhosis.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Despite the substantial impact of HCC on long-term outcomes of patients with CHB, the differential risk of HCC development among those receiving treatment with TAF vs. TDF has not been well elucidated. Using three validated risk prediction models, we found that TAF is at least as effective as TDF in reducing HCC risk in patients with CHB. While TDF is well-studied in the context of HCC risk reduction, our novel findings underscore the effectiveness of TAF as a treatment option for patients with CHB.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBERS

NCT01940341; NCT02836249; NCT01940471; NCT02836236.

Associations of Head and Neck Cancer with Hepatitis B Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Infection

This case-control study investigates the associations between head and neck cancer (HNC), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We included 5603 patients who had received a diagnosis of HNC as cases and 16,809 propensity score matching controls. We employed multivariate logistic regression models to evaluate the association of HNC with HBV and HCV infection after taking sociodemographic characteristics and diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, HPV infection, tobacco use disorder, and alcohol abuse/alcohol dependence syndrome into considerations. Results show that 7.9% of the total sample had been previously diagnosed with HBV infection, with 9.0% prevalence among cases and 7.6% among controls (p < 0.001). The chi-squared test suggests a significant difference in the prevalence of HCV infection between cases and controls (3.3% vs. 2.7%, p = 0.019). The covariate-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of HBV infection in patients with HNC relative to controls was 1.219 (95% CI = 1.093~1.359). Additionally, the adjusted OR of HCV infection in patients with HNC was 1.221 (95% CI = 1.023~1.457) compared to controls. Furthermore, patients with oropharyngeal cancer were more likely to have HCV infection than controls (adjusted OR = 2.142, 95% CI = 1.171~3.918). Our study provides evidence that suggests a potential association between HBV and HCV infections and the risk of HNC.

FIB‑4 index and serum α‑fetoprotein are useful predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis B patients with nucleos(t)ide analogs therapy

Current antiviral therapies cannot achieve eradication of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and can reduce but not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HBV infection. The present study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development by analyzing nucleoside analogue (NA)-treated patients as a retrospective cohort using fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4 index) as a non-invasive fibrosis marker. A total of 260 patients with HBV receiving NAs without a history of HCC between January 2001 and January 2021 were included in the present study. The incidence of HCC in patients with HBV during NA therapy and the factors contributing to HCC occurrence were identified using clinical characteristics and blood test results. Among the 260 patients, 40 patients (15.4%) developed HCC. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age [hazard ratio (HR), 1.03; P=0.045], male sex (HR, 3.14; P<0.01) and FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment <1.95 (HR, 4.35; P<0.01) correlated with the incidence of HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment >1.95 was significantly higher compared with that in patients with FIB-4 index ≤1.95 (P<0.01). Multivariate analysis in patients in which serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level at 6 months after NA treatment was measured showed that FIB-4 index >1.95 (HR, 8.27; P=0.014) and serum AFP level >4 ng/ml (HR, 4.26; P=0.033) contributed to HCC occurrence. FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment and serum AFP levels at 6 months after NA treatment were predictors for the development of HCC in patients with HBV during NA treatment. Further study of hepatocarcinogenesis during NA with a longer follow-up period and larger numbers of participants is required.

Combination treatment of pegylated interferon and tenofovir versus tenofovir for people with chronic hepatitis B

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (intervention). The objectives are as follows:

To evaluate the benefits and harms of pegylated interferon combined with tenofovir versus tenofovir monotherapy in adults with chronic hepatitis B.

TRB CDR3 chemical complementarity with HBV epitopes correlates with increased hepatocellular carcinoma, disease-free survival

The liver is a site of immune privilege, compared with the bladder and skin, for example. To study this attenuation of the immune response in the cancer setting, we compared quantities and features of adaptive immune receptor (IR) recombination reads obtained from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and six other cancers. Of these cancers, HCC had the lowest numbers of IR recombination reads and was the only cancer with a greater number immunoglobulin rather than T-cell receptor recombination reads. To better understand the role of adaptive IRs obtained from the tumor microenvironment in shaping the outcome of HCC cases, we quantified the chemical complementarity between HCC tumor TRB and IGH complementarity determining region-3 (CDR3) amino acid (AA) sequences, and known hepatitis B virus (HBV) epitopes. High chemical complementarity between HCC-resident CDR3s and three HBV epitopes correlated with increased survival probabilities, for two sources of CDR3s representing different CDR3 recovery algorithms. These results suggest the potential of CDR3 AA sequences as biomarkers for HCC patient stratification and as guides for future development of therapeutics.

Rapid Decline Rather Than Absolute Level of HBsAg Predicts Its Seroclearance in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients From Taiwanese Communities

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance leads to favorable outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B. HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL with HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL in 1 year have been reportedly predictive of HBsAg loss. This study aimed to use the REVEAL-hepatitis B virus cohort to validate and simplify this prediction rule and verify whether the simplified algorithm can be used among various clinical subgroups.

METHOD

We analyzed 707 patients with untreated chronic hepatitis B who had 3 or more HBsAg measurements within 5 years before HBsAg seroclearance or last visit, greater than 1 year apart from one another. Rapid HBsAg decline was defined as HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL in 1 year or >1 log 10 IU/mL in 2 years. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values were compared to assess the predictability of HBsAg seroclearance.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 41 of the 707 patients cleared serum HBsAg. HBsAg levels at all measurements were lower ( P < 0.0001) and HBsAg decline was greater ( P < 0.0001) in patients with seroclearance compared with non-seroclearance patients. The predictive accuracy of predicting 1-year HBsAg loss using only the rapid decline algorithm (sensitivity = 0.4412, specificity = 0.9792, positive predictive value = 0.5172, negative predictive value = 0.972) was the same as the model combining rapid HBsAg decline and HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL. The simplified algorithm including only the rapid decline performed similarly among various levels of HBsAg, hepatitis B virus DNA, and alanine aminotransferase and was independent of inactive carrier state.

DISCUSSION

HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL/yr was a practical predictor of HBsAg seroclearance within 1 year in our community-based untreated cohort.

A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT).

METHODS

Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.

Clinical Distribution Characteristics and Identification for Significant Liver Inflammation of Patients in Chronic Hepatitis B with Indeterminate Phase

Aim

In clinical practice, a considerable proportion of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who do not conform to any immune status are considered to be in the "indeterminate phase". In this study, we aim to study the clinical distribution characteristics and identification of significant liver inflammation in patients in indeterminate phase.

Methods

This study retrospectively analyze clinical data of 1226 patients with CHB at two medical centers in Zhejiang province. According to American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) 2018 hepatitis B guidance, CHB can be divided into four phases: immune-tolerant phase, HBeAg-positive immune active phase, inactive phase, and HBeAg-negative immune active phase. Liver inflammation grade was evaluated using the Scheuer scoring system, and significant liver inflammation was defined as G ≥ 2.

Results

The distribution of different immune status was as follows: 259 (21.1%) patients in immune-tolerant phase, 365 (29.8%) patients in HBeAg-positive immune active phase, 128 (10.4%) patients in inactive phase, and 33 (2.7%) patients in HBeAg-negative immune active phase. However, 441 (36.0%) patients did not meet any of the above immune phases, which were defined as indeterminate phase. Significant liver inflammation (54.1%) was common in CHB patients with indeterminate phase. Prothrombin time (PT), platelet count (PLT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and hepatitis B virus (HBV)-DNA were associated with significant inflammation.

Conclusions

The results of this study showed that about 36.0% of patients were divided into indeterminate phase. The proportion of patients with significant inflammation in indeterminate phase and liver inflammation becomes more severe with aggravation of fibrosis stage. PT, PLT, ALT, and HBV-DNA may have a significant correlation with severe inflammation and prognosis of CHB.

Establishment of a multi-parameter prediction model for the functional cure of HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B patients treated with pegylated interferonα and decision process based on response-guided therapy strategy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

This study aimed to establish multivariate prediction models according to a response-guided therapy (RGT) based strategy at baseline and week 12 and 24 of follow-up to predict the functional cure for HBeAg-negative patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) treated with pegylated interferonα (PEG-IFNα).

METHODS

A total of 242 HBeAg-negative patients with CHB were treated with PEG-IFNα for 52 weeks and followed up for 24 weeks. Responses at the end of follow-up (EOF) were defined as hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss, and patients were defined as either responders or non-responders.

RESULTS

The three most meaningful predictors were an age ≤ 40 years, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels ≤ 40 U/L, and HBsAg levels ≤ 100 IU/mL at baseline; ALT levels ≥ 80 U/L, anti-HBc levels ≤ 8.42 S/CO, and HBsAg levels ≤ 50 IU/mL at week 12; and ALT levels ≥ 40 U/L, anti-HBc levels ≤ 8.46 S/CO, and HBsAg levels ≤ 0.2 IU/mL at week 24. The response rates of patients with a score of 0-1 and 4-5 at baseline, week 12, and 24 were 13.5%, 7.8%, and 11.7%; and 63.6%, 68.1%, and 98.1%, respectively. At week 12, the cumulative scores were 0-2, 3-4, 5-7, and 8-10 (response rates 5.0%, 18.9%, 41.3%, and 71.4%, respectively). At week 24, the cumulative scores were 0-3, 4-6, 7-10, and 11-15 (response rates: 1.3%, 12.3%, 37.0%, and 92.5%, respectively). At baseline, patients with scores of 0-1 were slightly recommended; at week 12, patients with 0-1 or 0-2 cumulative scores were recommended to stop treatment. At week 24, patients with a score of 0-1 or a cumulative score of 0-6 were recommended to stop treatment.

CONCLUSION

We established a multi-parameter prediction model for the functional cure of HBeAg-negative patients with CHB treated with PEG-IFNα.