Risk factors for the transition from suicide ideation to suicide attempt: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

A test of the interpersonal theory of suicide in a large, representative, retrospective and prospective study: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

The interpersonal theory of suicide hypothesizes that perceived burdensomeness, thwarted belongingness, and hopelessness lead to active suicidal thoughts and individuals with active suicidal thoughts and elevated capability for suicide are most likely to attempt suicide. We retrospectively and prospectively tested this theory in a large sample of 7677 U.S. Army soldiers followed post-deployment for up to nine months. The interaction of perceived burdensomeness and hopelessness (OR = 2.59) was significantly associated with lifetime suicidal thoughts; however, the interactions of thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness and of thwarted belongingness and hopelessness were not. Consistent with the theory, capability for suicide prospectively predicted suicide attempts during and following deployment (OR = 1.22); however, among soldiers reporting lifetime suicidal thoughts, capability did not predict attempts, only perceived burdensomeness did (OR = 1.36). Results supported some, but not all, theory hypotheses, suggesting that additional constructs may be needed to better identify the psychological factors that lead soldiers to attempt suicide.

The association between nocturnal panic attacks and suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts

Panic and sleep disturbances are established risk factors for suicide. Nocturnal panic attacks, which occur out of sleep, represent an intersection of these risk factors. Only one study to date has examined this relationship, but measured suicidality as a unitary construct. This represents a significant gap in the literature, considering most individuals who think about suicide do not make a plan and most who make a plan never make an attempt. We sought to expand upon existing research by examining how nocturnal panic relates to suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts separately. We predicted nocturnal panic would be associated with more suicidal ideation, plan, and attempt history than daytime only panic and no panic. Participants recruited from an online community sample were thoroughly screened for nocturnal and daytime panic history and completed questionnaires about past suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts. Nocturnal and daytime panic groups did not differ in past suicidal ideation or plans, but both groups exceeded the non-panic group. The nocturnal panic group reported more suicide attempts than the daytime and non-panic groups and judged themselves as more likely to make an attempt in the future. These results indicate a promising avenue for future research and suicide prevention efforts.

Self-injurious thoughts and behaviors that differentiate soldiers who attempt suicide from those with recent suicide ideation

BACKGROUND

Risk for suicide attempt (SA) versus suicide ideation (SI) is clinically important and difficult to differentiate. We examined whether a history of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs) differentiates soldiers with a recent SA from nonattempting soldiers with current/recent SI.

METHODS

Using a unique case-control design, we administered the same questionnaire (assessing the history of SITBs and psychosocial variables) to representative U.S. Army soldiers recently hospitalized for SA (n = 132) and soldiers from the same Army installations who reported 30-day SI but did not make an attempt (n = 125). Logistic regression analyses examined whether SITBs differentiated attempters and ideators after controlling for previously identified covariates.

RESULTS

In separate models that weighted for systematic nonresponse and controlled for gender, education, posttraumatic stress disorder, and intermittent explosive disorder, SA was positively and significantly associated with the history of suicide plan and/or intention to act (odds ratio [OR] = 12.1 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 3.6-40.4]), difficulty controlling suicidal thoughts during the worst week of ideation (OR = 3.5 [95% CI = 1.1-11.3]), and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) (OR = 4.9 [95% CI = 1.3-18.0]). Area under the curve was 0.87 in a full model that combined these SITBs and covariates. The top ventile based on predicted risk had a sensitivity of 24.7%, specificity of 99.8%, and positive predictive value of 97.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

History of suicide plan/intention, difficult to control ideation, and NSSI differentiate soldiers with recent SA from those with current/recent SI independent of sociodemographic characteristics and mental disorders. Longitudinal research is needed to determine whether these factors are prospectively associated with the short-term transition from SI to SA.

Talking About Suicide: Trends in Christian and Socially Conservative Suicide Decedents

This study examined the relationship between religious affiliation, social policy beliefs, and whether individuals spoke with anyone about suicide prior to suicide death. Two hundred sixty-seven suicide loss survivors reported on characteristics of suicide decedents. Binary logistic regressions found those who identified as socially liberal were more likely to have discussed suicide with the loss survivor or to have told someone else they were thinking about attempting suicide than were those who identified as socially conservative. Follow-up analyses indicated Christian affiliation was only associated with a lower likelihood of having discussed suicide with the loss survivor among older men. Results indicated that specific worldviews may serve as obstacles to suicidal individuals discussing their suicidal thoughts prior to death. As such, the findings indicate that public health approaches to suicide prevention that do not rely on open reporting of suicidal ideation may be vital within such communities.

Routinized categorization of suicide risk into actionable strata: Establishing the validity of an existing suicide risk assessment framework in an outpatient sample

OBJECTIVE

The Suicide Risk Assessment and Management Decision Tree (DT) is a clinician-administered assessment that leads to risk categorizations that correspond with actionable strata. This study investigated the construct validity and test-retest reliability of the DT risk categories across two time points.

METHOD

Outpatients (N = 731) completed a battery of self-report measures. Spearman's correlations were used to examine the relationships between DT suicide risk level and suicidal symptoms, theory-based risk factors, psychiatric correlates, and DT suicide risk level at Timepoint 2. Correlations were analyzed for significant differences to examine the divergent validity of the DT.

RESULTS

Results, overall, were in line with hypotheses, with the exception of depression and thwarted belongingness.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings provide evidence for the reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the DT. This clinician-administered suicide risk assessment may be useful for standardization of the assessment and management of suicide risk in outpatient clinical settings.

Preferences in Information Processing, Marginalized Identity, and Non-Monogamy: Understanding Factors in Suicide-Related Behavior among Members of the Alternative Sexuality Community

Suicide-related behavior (SRB) is a mental health disparity experienced by the alternative sexuality community. We assessed mental health, relationship orientation, marginalized identities (i.e., sexual orientation minority, gender minority, racial minority, ethnic minority, and lower education), and preferences in information processing (PIP) as factors differentiating lifetime SRB groups. An online cross-sectional survey study was conducted in 2018. Members of the National Coalition for Sexual Freedom (NCSF; n = 334) took part. Bivariate analyses identified the following SRB risk factors: female and transgender/gender non-binary identity, sexual orientation minority identity, lower education, suicide attempt/death exposure, Need for Affect (NFA) Avoidance, depression, and anxiety. Monogamous relationship orientation was a protective factor. Multi-nomial regression revealed the following: (1) monogamous relationship orientation was a protective factor for suicidal ideation and attempt; (2) lower education was a risk factor for suicide attempt; (3) anxiety was a risk factor for suicide attempt; and (4) depression was a risk factor for suicidal ideation. A two-way interaction showed that elevated NFA Approach buffered the negative impacts of depression. Relationship orientation, several marginalized identities (i.e., based on gender, sexual orientation, and educational level), and PIP all contributed uniquely to SRB. Further study is necessary to understand the role of relationship orientation with suicide. Health education and suicide prevention efforts with NCSF should be tailored to account for marginalized identity, mental health, and NFA factors.

The Differences Between Individuals Engaging in Nonsuicidal Self-Injury and Suicide Attempt Are Complex (vs. Complicated or Simple)

BACKGROUND

Why do some people engage in nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) while others attempt suicide? One way to advance knowledge about this question is to shed light on the differences between people who engage in NSSI and people who attempt suicide. These groups could differ in three broad ways. First, these two groups may differ in a simple way, such that one or a small set of factors is both necessary and sufficient to accurately distinguish the two groups. Second, they might differ in a complicated way, meaning that a specific set of a large number of factors is both necessary and sufficient to accurately classify them. Third, they might differ in a complex way, with no necessary factor combinations and potentially no sufficient factor combinations. In this scenario, at the group level, complicated algorithms would either be insufficient (i.e., no complicated algorithm produces good accuracy) or unnecessary (i.e., many complicated algorithms produce good accuracy) to distinguish between groups. This study directly tested these three possibilities in a sample of people with a history of NSSI and/or suicide attempt.

METHOD

A total of 954 participants who have either engaged in NSSI and/or suicide attempt in their lifetime were recruited from online forums. Participants completed a series of measures on factors commonly associated with NSSI and suicide attempt. To test for simple differences, univariate logistic regressions were conducted. One theoretically informed multiple logistic regression model with suicidal desire, capability for suicide, and their interaction term was considered as well. To examine complicated and complex differences, multiple logistic regression and machine learning analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

No simple algorithm (i.e., single factor or small set of factors) accurately distinguished between groups. Complicated algorithms constructed with cross-validation methods produced fair accuracy; complicated algorithms constructed with bootstrap optimism methods produced good accuracy, but multiple different algorithms with this method produced similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings were consistent with complex differences between people who engage in NSSI and suicide attempts. Specific complicated algorithms were either insufficient (cross-validation results) or unnecessary (bootstrap optimism results) to distinguish between these groups with high accuracy.

Victimization, depression, and the suicide cascade in sexual minority youth

Background: Suicidality remains disproportionately prevalent among sexual minority youth, necessitating novel methods of understanding suicide risk in this population. Victimization and depression are especially salient suicide risk factors.Aims: We aimed to test if victimization and depression were associated with suicidality at each step of a suicide cascade: Ideation, planning, and suicide attempts.Method: In sample of sexual minorities from the 2015 and 2017 Youth Risk Behavior Survey, we tested nine measures of victimization and depression associated with three outcomes in succession: Suicidal ideation among the full sample (n = 3357), suicide planning among those with ideation (n = 1475), and suicide attempts among those who planned suicide (n = 1073).Results: Depression was associated with suicidal ideation (aPR = 3.93, 95% CI 3.36-4.60), planning (aPR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.12-1.69), and attempts (aPR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.32-2.41) in successive subsamples. Victimization measures had different associations with suicidality at each successive stage, with the strongest associations observed with suicidal ideation in the general sample and suicide attempts among those who planned suicide.Conclusions: This may have implications for anti-victimization intervention effectiveness at each stage of suicidality. Additional research into this association among transgender and gender non-conforming youth is recommended.

Prospective prediction of suicide attempts in community adolescents and young adults, using regression methods and machine learning

BACKGROUND

The use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to study suicidality has recently been recommended. Our aim was to explore whether ML approaches have the potential to improve the prediction of suicide attempt (SA) risk. Using the epidemiological multiwave prospective-longitudinal Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) data set, we compared four algorithms-logistic regression, lasso, ridge, and random forest-in predicting a future SA in a community sample of adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

The EDSP Study prospectively assessed, over the course of 10 years, adolescents and young adults aged 14-24 years at baseline. Of 3021 subjects, 2797 were eligible for prospective analyses because they participated in at least one of the three follow-up assessments. Sixteen baseline predictors, all selected a priori from the literature, were used to predict follow-up SAs. Model performance was assessed using repeated nested 10-fold cross-validation. As the main measure of predictive performance we used the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

The mean AUCs of the four predictive models, logistic regression, lasso, ridge, and random forest, were 0.828, 0.826, 0.829, and 0.824, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our comparison, each algorithm performed equally well in distinguishing between a future SA case and a non-SA case in community adolescents and young adults. When choosing an algorithm, different considerations, however, such as ease of implementation, might in some instances lead to one algorithm being prioritized over another. Further research and replication studies are required in this regard.

Leader provided purpose: Military leadership behavior and its association with suicidal ideation

Suicide in U.S. Army Soldiers is of major concern as it is estimated that over 100 Soldiers die by suicide each year. Examining risk and protective factors is essential to develop both an understanding of Soldier suicide as well as inform systemic interventions to reduce suicide. One potential systemic approach is to embed preventive mechanisms within the structure of the military rather than the typical administration of primary intervention through mandatory training. To examine potential mechanisms of leader-based interventions, several leadership behaviors were assessed in a cross-sectional sample of n = 1,096 active duty Soldiers. Soldiers completed self-report measures of interpersonal predictors of suicide, suicidal ideation (SI), leadership behaviors, and unit cohesion. Logistic regression was used to identify leadership behaviors related to SI. Only the leader behavior attempting to foster a sense of purpose predicted SI. Leader provided purpose (LPP) was then entered into indirect effect analyses to evaluate the mechanisms of this relationship. Analyses revealed that LPP predicted SI through unit cohesion, thwarted belongingness, and perceived burdensomeness. Results demonstrate that specific aspects of military leadership such as fostering Soldier purpose may enhance resilience and reduce risk for SI.

Suicidal behaviours and moderator support in online health communities: protocol for a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Suicidal ideation and suicidal behaviours are common yet complex mental health presentations that can pose significant challenges for health professionals. The inability to accurately predict the individuals who may move from experiencing suicidal ideation and associated behaviours, to completing suicide, presents one such challenge. This can make it difficult to provide interventions and support to those most in need. Online health communities are one possible source of support for individuals who experience suicidal ideation and behaviours. These communities are becoming an increasingly popular way of accessing support, often with life-saving consequences. Within online communities, support is offered by various individuals including, in some instances, health professionals from various backgrounds, who work as online health community moderators. Given the growth of online communities and the increasing number of health professionals working as moderators, this scoping review seeks to map the literature that has focused on health professionals working as online community moderators, who interact with members experiencing suicidal ideation and behaviours. Mapping the existing literature offers benefits to both research and practice by identifying gaps in the research and providing a beginning knowledge base of current practice that can inform the training and development of health professionals working as community moderators.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This scoping review will follow the methodological framework of Arksey and O'Malley, later adapted by Levac et al. To ensure appropriate rigour, this protocol uses the 20-item Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses and extension for Scoping Reviews. Literature will be identified using a search strategy developed in consultation with a specialist research librarian at the university where the researchers are employed. Ten multidisciplinary databases will be independently searched by two researchers, and both researchers will screen for inclusion, and undertake the data extraction. The first author will perform a quality assessment of the articles that are selected for inclusion. A second researcher will complete a random audit of 20% of the included articles to assess for quality and suitability in answering the research questions. The first author will complete the analysis and synthesis of the data. A numerical and narrative synthesis of the included studies will be provided.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The scoping review has been deemed as being exempt from ethical review as no data will be collected from human participants. The results of the scoping review may be published in a peer-reviewed journal, thesis, presented at relevant conferences, and shared with relevant knowledge users.

Factors Associated With Suicide Ideation in US Army Soldiers During Deployment in Afghanistan

IMPORTANCE

Understanding suicide ideation (SI) during combat deployment can inform prevention and treatment during and after deployment.

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations of sociodemographic characteristics, lifetime and past-year stressors, and mental disorders with 30-day SI among a representative sample of US Army soldiers deployed in Afghanistan.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this survey study, soldiers deployed to Afghanistan completed self-administered questionnaires in July 2012. The sample was weighted to represent all 87 032 soldiers serving in Afghanistan. Prevalence of lifetime, past-year, and 30-day SI and mental disorders was determined. Logistic regression analyses examined risk factors associated with SI. Data analyses for this study were conducted between August 2018 and August 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Suicide ideation, lifetime and 12-month stressors, and mental disorders were assessed with questionnaires. Administrative records identified sociodemographic characteristics and suicide attempts.

RESULTS

A total of 3957 soldiers (3473 [weighted 87.5%] male; 2135 [weighted 52.6%] aged ≤29 years) completed self-administered questionnaires during their deployment in Afghanistan. Lifetime, past-year, and 30-day SI prevalence estimates were 11.7%, 3.0%, and 1.9%, respectively. Among soldiers with SI, 44.2% had major depressive disorder (MDD) and 19.3% had posttraumatic stress disorder in the past 30-day period. A series of analyses of the 23 grouped variables potentially associated with SI resulted in a final model of sex; race/ethnicity; lifetime noncombat trauma; past 12-month relationship problems, legal problems, and death or illness of a friend or family member; and MDD. In this final multivariable model, white race/ethnicity (odds ratio [OR], 3.1 [95% CI, 1.8-5.1]), lifetime noncombat trauma (OR, 2.1 [95% CI, 1.1-4.0]), and MDD (past 30 days: OR, 31.8 [95% CI, 15.0-67.7]; before past 30 days: OR, 4.9 [95% CI, 2.5-9.6]) were associated with SI. Among the 85 soldiers with past 30-day SI, from survey administration through 12 months after returning from deployment, 6% (5 participants) had a documented suicide attempt vs 0.14% (6 participants) of the 3872 soldiers without SI.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests that major depressive disorder and noncombat trauma are important factors in identifying SI risk during combat deployment.

Identifying Suicide Typologies Among Trauma-Exposed Veterans

Background: Suicide among veterans has increased in recent years, making the identification of those at greatest risk for self-injurious behavior a high research priority. Aims: We investigated whether affective impulsivity and risky behaviors distinguished typologies of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors in a sample of trauma-exposed veterans. Method: A total of 95 trauma-exposed veterans (ages 21-55; 87% men) completed self-report measures of self-injurious thoughts and behaviors, impulsivity, and clinical symptoms. Results: A latent profile analysis produced three classes that differed in suicidal ideation, suicide attempts and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI): A low class that reported little to no self-injurious thoughts or behaviors; a self-injurious thoughts (ST) class that endorsed high levels of ideation but no self-harm behaviors; and a self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (STaB) class that reported ideation, suicide attempts and NSSI. Membership in the STaB class was associated with greater affective impulsivity, disinhibition, and distress/arousal than the other two classes. Limitations: Limitations include an overrepresentation of males in our sample, the cross-sectional nature of the data, and reliance on self-report measures. Conclusion: Findings point to affective impulsivity and risky behaviors as important characteristics of veterans who engage in self-injurious behaviors.

Is suicidality a mental disorder? Applying DSM-5 guidelines for new diagnoses

Suicidality-specific diagnoses have been proposed recently, but suicidologists are only just beginning to evaluate their merits. To advance this discussion, I introduce the term suicidal syndrome to describe the underlying entity, present a rationale for why a formal diagnosis is necessary, define the major features of the syndrome, and show how the syndrome could meet the requirements for new diagnostic candidates used in the development of the DSM-5. Against this backdrop, I examine common objections to a suicidality-specific diagnosis. Finally, I discuss several challenges with the creation of new diagnostic entities as they apply to suicidal syndrome.

Prevalence, Onset, and Course of Suicidal Behavior Among Adolescents and Young Adults in Germany

Importance

Suicidal behavior is a leading cause of death among adolescents and young adults. In light of the ideation-to-action framework, the delineation of frequency and temporal characteristics of such behavior during this developmental period is crucial.

Objectives

To provide lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of suicidal behavior, including ideation, plan, and attempt, in adolescents and young adults of the general population, and to provide information about age at onset, temporal characteristics of suicidal behavior, including duration (number of years between onset and last occurrence) and frequency (number of episodes), and transition patterns across suicidal behaviors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A cross-sectional epidemiological study was conducted in a random community sample of 1180 adolescents and young adults aged 14 to 21 years assessed in 2015 to 2016 in Dresden, Germany. Data analysis was performed from October 2018 to March 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Lifetime and 12-month suicidal behavior (ideation, plan, and attempt) were assessed with a standardized diagnostic interview (Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview) by trained clinical interviewers. The onset, frequency, and duration of suicidal behavior were assessed by questionnaire.

Results

Of the 1180 participants (495 male [weighted percentage, 51.7%]; mean [SD] age, 17.9 [2.3] years), 130 participants (10.7%; 95% CI, 9.0%-12.8%), 65 participants (5.0%; 95% CI, 3.9%-6.5%), and 41 participants (3.4%; 95% CI, 2.4%-4.7%) reported lifetime suicidal ideation, plan, and attempt, respectively. Any lifetime suicidal behavior was reported by 138 participants (11.5%; 95% CI, 9.7%-13.7%). Age-specific cumulative incidence estimates indicated an increase in suicidal behavior during adolescence, starting at age 10 years (<1%), increasing slightly until the age of 12 years (2.2%), and then increasing sharply thereafter until age 20 years (13.5%). There were different patterns among female and male participants for ideation, plan, and attempt, with an overall higher incidence among female participants for ideation (hazard ratio, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.02-2.22; P = .04), for plan (hazard ratio, 3.31; 95% CI, 1.72-6.36; P < .001), and, among those older than 14 years, for attempt (hazard ratio, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.11-8.49; P = .03). Of those with suicidal ideation, 66.0% reported persistent or recurrent ideation over more than 1 year with 75.0% reporting more than 1 episode. Of the participants with lifetime suicidal ideation, 47.0% reported a suicide plan and 23.9% reported a suicide attempt. The transition to suicide plan or attempt occurred mainly in the year of onset of suicidal ideation or plan; of those who transitioned, 74.9% transitioned from ideation to plan, 71.2% transitioned from ideation to attempt, and 85.4% transitioned from plan to attempt in the same year.

Conclusions and Relevance

There is an urgent public health need for timely identification of suicidal behavior in adolescents and young adults to terminate persistent or recurrent suicidal tendencies and to interrupt the ideation-to-action transition.

Patterns of change in suicide ideation signal the recurrence of suicide attempts among high-risk psychiatric outpatients

Suicide ideation is an inherently dynamic construct. Previous research implicates different temporal patterns in suicide ideation among individuals who have made multiple suicide attempts as compared to individuals who have not. Temporal patterns among first-time attempters might therefore distinguish those who eventually make a second suicide attempt. To test this possibility, the present study used a dynamical systems approach to model change patterns in suicide ideation over the course of brief cognitive behavioral therapy for suicide prevention (12 sessions total) among 33 treatment-seeking active duty Soldiers with one prior suicide attempt. Variable-centered models were constructed to determine if change patterns differed between those with and without a follow-up suicide whereas person-centered models were constructed to determine if within-person change patterns were associated with eventual suicide attempts. Severity of suicide ideation was not associated with the occurrence of suicide attempts during follow-up, but person-centered temporal patterns were. Among those who made an attempt during follow-up, suicide ideation demonstrated greater within-person variability across treatment. Results suggest certain change processes in suicide ideation may characterize vulnerability to recurrent suicide attempt among first-time attempters receiving outpatient behavioral treatment. Nonlinear dynamic models may provide advantages for suicide risk assessment and treatment monitoring in clinical settings.

Suicide ideation severity is associated with severe suicide attempts in a military setting

BACKGROUND

There is an ongoing debate on the effectiveness of suicidal behavior prevention measures in the military. The association of three widely used tools with severe suicide attempts was assessed in this setting.

METHODS

Thirty-nine Israeli soldiers (59% males), mean age 19 yrs., who attempted suicide during military service were divided into two groups: severe (n = 14; 35.9%) and moderate suicide attempts, and were assessed using the Scale for Suicide Ideation (SSI), Suicide Intent Scale (SIS) and the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS).

RESULTS

Seven items from the SSI (p = 0.008), two items from SIS and one item from C-SSRS were associated with severe suicide attempts. Kendall's tau-b correlation with bootstrap demonstrated stability of these correlations.

CONCLUSION

Greater severity of suicidal ideation was associated with more severe suicide attempts. The combination of male gender, available firearms and current severe suicide ideation is high-risk danger sign in a military setting, even when reported intent to die is low.

Non-suicidal self-injury prevalence, course, and association with suicidal thoughts and behaviors in two large, representative samples of US Army soldiers

BACKGROUND

Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) prospectively predicts suicidal thoughts and behaviors in civilian populations. Despite high rates of suicide among US military members, little is known about the prevalence and course of NSSI, or how NSSI relates to suicidal thoughts and behaviors, in military personnel.

METHODS

We conducted secondary analyses of two representative surveys of active-duty soldiers (N = 21 449) and newly enlisted soldiers (N = 38 507) from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

RESULTS

The lifetime prevalence of NSSI is 6.3% (1.2% 12-month prevalence) in active-duty soldiers and 7.9% (1.3% 12-month prevalence) in new soldiers. Demographic risk factors for lifetime NSSI include female sex, younger age, non-Hispanic white ethnicity, never having married, and lower educational attainment. The association of NSSI with temporally primary internalizing and externalizing disorders varies by service history (new v. active-duty soldiers) and gender (men v. women). In both active-duty and new soldiers, NSSI is associated with increased odds of subsequent onset of suicidal ideation [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.66-1.81] and suicide attempts (adjusted OR = 2.02-2.43), although not with the transition from ideation to attempt (adjusted OR = 0.92-1.36). Soldiers with a history of NSSI are more likely to have made multiple suicide attempts, compared with soldiers without NSSI.

CONCLUSIONS

NSSI is prevalent among US Army soldiers and is associated with significantly increased odds of later suicidal thoughts and behaviors, even after NSSI has resolved. Suicide risk assessments in military populations should screen for history of NSSI.

Prediction Models for Suicide Attempts and Deaths: A Systematic Review and Simulation

IMPORTANCE

Suicide prediction models have the potential to improve the identification of patients at heightened suicide risk by using predictive algorithms on large-scale data sources. Suicide prediction models are being developed for use across enterprise-level health care systems including the US Department of Defense, US Department of Veterans Affairs, and Kaiser Permanente.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of suicide prediction models in predicting suicide and suicide attempts and to simulate the effects of implementing suicide prediction models using population-level estimates of suicide rates.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

A systematic literature search was conducted in MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify research evaluating the predictive accuracy of suicide prediction models in identifying patients at high risk for a suicide attempt or death by suicide. Each database was searched from inception to August 21, 2018. The search strategy included search terms for suicidal behavior, risk prediction, and predictive modeling. Reference lists of included studies were also screened. Two reviewers independently screened and evaluated eligible studies.

FINDINGS

From a total of 7306 abstracts reviewed, 17 cohort studies met the inclusion criteria, representing 64 unique prediction models across 5 countries with more than 14 million participants. The research quality of the included studies was generally high. Global classification accuracy was good (≥0.80 in most models), while the predictive validity associated with a positive result for suicide mortality was extremely low (≤0.01 in most models). Simulations of the results suggest very low positive predictive values across a variety of population assessment characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

To date, suicide prediction models produce accurate overall classification models, but their accuracy of predicting a future event is near 0. Several critical concerns remain unaddressed, precluding their readiness for clinical applications across health systems.

Transition to suicide attempt from recent suicide ideation in U.S. Army soldiers: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

BACKGROUND

Most people with suicide ideation (SI) do not attempt suicide (SA). Understanding the transition from current/recent SI to SA is important for mental health care. Our objective was to identify characteristics that differentiate SA from 30-day SI among representative U.S. Army soldiers.

METHODS

Using a unique case-control design, soldiers recently hospitalized for SA (n = 132) and representative soldiers from the same four communities (n = 10,193) were administered the same questionnaire. We systematically identified variables that differentiated suicide attempters from the total population, then examined whether those same variables differentiated all 30-day ideators (n = 257) from the total population and attempters from nonattempting 30-day ideators.

RESULTS

In univariable analyses, 20 of 23 predictors were associated with SA in the total population (0.05 level). The best multivariable model included eight significant predictors: interpersonal violence, relationship problems, major depressive disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and substance use disorder (all having positive associations), as well as past 12-month combat trauma, intermittent explosive disorder (IED), and any college education (all having negative associations). Six of these differentiated 30-day ideators from the population. Three differentiated attempters from ideators: past 30-day PTSD (OR = 6.7 [95% CI = 1.1-39.4]), past 30-day IED (OR = 0.2 [95% CI = 0.1-0.5]), and any college education (OR = 0.1 [95% CI = 0.0-0.6]). The 5% of ideators with highest predicted risk in this final model included 20.9% of attempters, a four-fold concentration of risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective army research examining transition from SI to SA should consider PTSD, IED, and education. Combat exposure did not differentiate attempters from ideators. Many SA risk factors in the Army population are actually risk factors for SI.

Utilization of and barriers to treatment among suicide decedents: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience Among Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

OBJECTIVE

To examine suicide decedents' use of mental health treatment and perceived barriers to initiating and maintaining treatment.

METHOD

We used a psychological autopsy study conducted as part of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience Among Servicemembers (Army STARRS) that compared suicide decedents (n = 135) to soldiers in two control conditions: those propensity-score-matched on known sociodemographic and Army history variables (n = 137) and those with a history of suicidal thoughts in the past 12 months (n = 118). Informants were next of kin and Army supervisors.

RESULTS

Results revealed that suicide decedents were significantly more likely to be referred to services and to use more intensive treatments (e.g., medication, overnight stay in hospital) than propensity-matched controls. However, decedents also were more likely to perceive significant barriers to treatment-seeking. All differences observed in the current study were between propensity-matched controls and decedents, with no observed differences between suicide ideators and decedents.

CONCLUSIONS

Many suicide decedents used some form of mental health care at some point in their lives; however, they also were more likely than propensity-matched controls to perceive barriers that may have prevented service use. The lack of differences between suicide ideators and decedents suggests that more information is needed, beyond knowledge of treatment utilization or perceived barriers, to identify and intervene on those at highest risk for suicide. These findings underscore the importance of reducing attitudinal barriers that may deter suicidal soldiers from seeking treatment, and also improving risk detection among those who are attending treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Suicide in Transgender Veterans: Prevalence, Prevention, and Implications of Current Policy

Transgender adults serve in the U.S. military at 2 to 3 times the rate of the general adult population. Unfortunately, transgender veterans die by suicide at twice the rate of their cisgender veteran peers and approximately 5.85 times the rate of the general population. This article reviews the literature regarding the prevalence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors in transgender veterans. Suicide risk and resilience factors are reviewed, and future areas of study are detailed that incorporate findings from the broader suicide-prevention literature and research on transgender mental-health disparities. Individual services and broader prevention considerations are discussed, including the adaptation of evidence-based suicide-specific psychological interventions, national transgender health-training resources, and relevant veteran suicide-prevention initiatives. Finally, U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs policies regarding transgender service and health care are reviewed. State-level policies relevant to transgender veteran suicide such as firearm ownership and nondiscrimination laws are also reviewed, and their implications for suicide prevention are discussed. The aim of this article is to provide a broad review of research findings from multiple fields of study to assist health-care providers, researchers, and policymakers in their efforts to prevent transgender veteran suicide.

The dimensionality of suicidal ideation and its clinical implications

OBJECTIVES

No consensus has been reached regarding the theoretical dimensions underlying the Scale for Suicide Ideation (SSI) and Beck's Scale for Suicide Ideation (BSI), widely used in research and clinical practice. This undermines the understanding and management of suicidal behavior.

METHODS

The factor structure of the SSI and the BSI was investigated in 201 patients visiting the emergency department of the Geneva University Hospital, Switzerland, for suicidal ideation or a suicide attempt.

RESULTS

Exploratory factor analyses (EFAs) identified a unique theoretical dimension. Item removal based on analyses of communalities improved the explained part of variance in both scales. A joint factor analysis provided results very similar to those yielded by initial EFAs.

CONCLUSIONS

The single factor underlying the SSI and the BSI was composed of items encompassing a construct of suicide desire. Nonretained items corresponded to other elements of suicidal behavior (e.g., plans and preparations regarding the upcoming suicide attempt). These scales could not discriminate between suicide ideators and suicide attempters.

Assessment of a Risk Index for Suicide Attempts Among US Army Soldiers With Suicide Ideation: Analysis of Data From the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

IMPORTANCE

The Department of Veterans Affairs recently began requiring annual suicide ideation (SI) screening of all patients and additional structured questions for patients reporting SI. Related changes are under consideration at the Department of Defense. These changes will presumably lead to higher SI detection, which will require hiring additional clinical staff and/or developing a clinical decision support system to focus in-depth suicide risk assessments on patients considered high risk.

OBJECTIVE

To carry out a proof-of-concept study for whether a brief structured question battery from a survey of US Army soldiers can help target in-depth suicide risk assessments by identifying soldiers with self-reported lifetime SI who are at highest risk of subsequent administratively recorded nonfatal suicide attempts (SAs).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cohort study with prospective observational design. Data were collected from May 2011 to February 2013. Participants were followed up through December 2014. Analyses were conducted from March to November 2018. A logistic regression model was used to assess risk for subsequent administratively recorded nonfatal SAs. A total of 3649 Regular Army soldiers in 3 Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) surveys who reported lifetime SI were followed up for 18 to 45 months from baseline to assess administratively reported nonfatal SAs.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Outcome was administratively recorded nonfatal SAs between survey response and December 2014. Predictors were survey variables.

RESULTS

The 3649 survey respondents were 80.5% male and had a median (interquartile range) age of 29 (25-36) years (range, 18-55 years); 69.4% were white non-Hispanic, 14.6% were black, 9.0% were Hispanic, 7.0% were another racial/ethnic group. Sixty-five respondents had administratively recorded nonfatal SAs between survey response and December 2014. One additional respondent died by suicide without making a nonfatal SA but was excluded from analysis based on previous evidence that predictors are different for suicide death and nonfatal SAs. Significant risk factors were SI recency (odds ratio [OR], 7.2; 95% CI, 2.9-18.0) and persistence (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.0-6.8), positive screens for mental disorders (OR, 26.2; 95% CI, 6.1-112.0), and Army career characteristics (OR for junior enlisted rank, 30.0; 95% CI, 3.3-272.5 and OR for senior enlisted rank, 6.7; 95% CI, 0.8-54.9). Cross-validated area under the curve was 0.78. The 10% of respondents with highest estimated risk accounted for 39.2% of subsequent SAs.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Results suggest the feasibility of developing a clinically useful risk index for SA among soldiers with SI using a small number of self-report questions. If implemented, a continuous quality improvement approach should be taken to refine the structured question series.

[Suicidological research in epilepsy: problems of methodology]

The review highlights contemporary views on the problem of suicide in patients with epilepsy. The most relevant theories are presented that describe the emergence of suicidal thoughts and the transition to suicidal attempts. Along with a description of risk factors, protective factors, as well as the possible impact of comorbidity, a description of methodological deficiencies in papers on suicide in patients with epilepsy is given. Recommendations for studies related to suicidal behaviour in patients with epilepsy are discussed.

The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS): progress toward understanding suicide among soldiers

Responding to an unprecedented increase in the suicide rate among soldiers, in 2008 the US Army and US National Institute of Mental Health funded the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS), a multicomponent epidemiological and neurobiological study of risk and resilience factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors, and their psychopathological correlates among Army personnel. Using a combination of administrative records, representative surveys, computerized neurocognitive tests, and blood samples, Army STARRS and its longitudinal follow-up study (STARRS-LS) are designed to identify potentially actionable findings to inform the Army's suicide prevention efforts. The current report presents a broad overview of Army STARRS and its findings to date on suicide deaths, attempts, and ideation, as well as other important outcomes that may increase suicide risk (e.g., mental disorders, sexual assault victimization). The findings highlight the complexity of environmental and genetic risk and protective factors in different settings and contexts, and the importance of life and career history in understanding suicidal thoughts and behaviors.

Patterns and predictors of persistence of suicide ideation: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

Persistent suicide ideation (SI) is known to be a risk factor for subsequent suicidal behaviors. Reducing SI persistence among people with a history of SI consequently might be a useful target for preventive intervention; however, basic information is lacking about patterns and predictors of SI persistence. We report preliminary retrospective data on annual SI persistence in a representative sample of 3,501 U.S. Army soldiers with lifetime SI from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Reports about age-of-onset and number of years with SI were used to estimate two definitions of persistence: persistence beyond year-of-onset and proportional annual persistence (i.e., percentage of years with SI since year-of-onset). Results revealed that for 47.8% of respondents with lifetime SI, their SI did not persist beyond the year-of-onset. For the 52.2% whose SI did persist beyond the year-of-onset, the median (interquartile range) proportional annual persistence was 33% (17-67%). Significant predictors of increased persistence were different for respondents with preenlistment SI onset (prior histories of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD], bipolar disorder, and panic disorder) and postenlistment SI onset (male, combat support military occupation specialty, prior histories of ADHD, panic disorder, and posttraumatic stress disorder). These predictors of persistence are different from the predictors of SI onset, suggesting that secondary preventive interventions to reduce SI persistence may need to focus on different factors than primary preventive interventions to reduce SI onset. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting suicide attempts among soldiers who deny suicidal ideation in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

Most nonfatal suicide attempts and suicide deaths occur among patients who deny suicidal ideation (SI) during suicide risk screenings. Little is known about risk factors for suicidal behaviors among such patients. We investigated this in a representative sample of U.S. Army soldiers who denied lifetime SI in a survey and were then followed through administrative records for up to 45 months to learn of administratively-recorded suicide attempts (SA). A novel two-stage risk assessment approach was used that combined first-stage prediction from administrative records to find the subsample of SI deniers with highest subsequent SA risk and then used survey reports to estimate a second-stage model identifying the subset of individuals in the high-risk subsample at highest SA risk. 70% of survey respondents denied lifetime SI. Administrative data identified 30% of this 70% who accounted for 81.2% of subsequent administratively-recorded SAs. A relatively small number of self-report survey variables were then used to create a prediction model that identified 10% of the first-stage high-risk sample (i.e., 3% of all soldiers) at highest SA risk (accounting for 45% of SAs in the total sample). We close by discussing potential applications of this approach for identifying future SI deniers at highest SA risk.

Examining characteristics of worry in relation to depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation and attempts

BACKGROUND

Pathological worry is defined as worry that is excessive, pervasive, and uncontrollable. Although pathological worry is related to depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation, less is understood about what specific features of worry confer risk for these mental health conditions. The current study examined associations between four characteristics of worry-frequency, duration, controllability, and content-and self-reported symptoms of depression, anxiety, suicidal ideation, and lifetime suicide attempts.

METHODS

A sample of 548 community participants (53.6% female, 45.4% male, 0.5% transgender male, 0.2% transgender female, and 0.2% gender non-binary), aged 19-98 years (M = 36.54, SD = 12.33), was recruited via Amazon's MTurk and completed a battery of self-report questionnaires online.

RESULTS

Results indicated that controllability of worry was uniquely associated with depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation above and beyond other characteristics of worry, demographic variables, negative affect, and future-oriented repetitive thinking. Lifetime suicide attempts were found non-significant to these mental health outcomes. Frequency of worry was also positively related to depression.

LIMITATIONS

This study utilized a cross-sectional design with exclusive self-report measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, these findings suggest that controllability of one's thoughts may be a key transdiagnostic factor that confers risk for a variety of psychopathology-related concerns. Clinical relevance includes identifying potential risk factors for varying psychopathology. Future research should examine relationships between worry controllability and anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and attempts, within clinical samples and utilizing a variety of methodologies.

Risk-taking behaviors and stressors differentially predict suicidal preparation, non-fatal suicide attempts, and suicide deaths

Negative life events are elevated in suicidal populations. Diathesis-stress and kindling effects models suggest different mechanisms by which negative life events increase suicide risk. Different forms of negative life events - risk-taking behaviors and stressors - may have different effects on non-fatal suicide attempts and suicide. We assessed the effects of risk-taking behaviors and stressors on suicide, history of non-fatal suicide attempts, and active preparation for suicide in a sample of adults who died by suicide or other causes (N = 377). Psychological autopsy procedures using family member interviews and collateral record review were used to complete a risk-taking behaviors composite measure from the Structured Interview for DSM-IV Personality Disorders, the Modified Life Experiences Scale, and the planning subscale of the Suicide Intent Scale. Stressors were significantly associated with death by suicide, even when accounting for demographic and diagnostic characteristics. Risk-taking behaviors were significantly associated with non-fatal suicide attempts, even when accounting for demographic and diagnostic characteristics. Suicide decedents who did not actively prepare for suicide showed significantly higher risk-taking scores than suicide decedents who actively planned for suicide. Our results suggest that risk-taking behaviors and stressors impact suicide risk through separate mechanisms. Risk-taking behaviors may represent a longstanding vulnerability to act impulsively on suicidal thoughts. Stressors may impact risk for fatal suicidal behaviors in mood disordered populations.

The associations between non-suicidal self-injury and first onset suicidal thoughts and behaviors

BACKGROUND

Theoretical and empirical literature suggests that non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is an important correlate of suicide risk. The present study was designed to evaluate: (a) whether NSSI is associated with increased odds of subsequent onsets of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) independent of common mental disorders, (b) whether NSSI is associated with increased risk of transitioning from suicide ideation to attempt, and (c) which NSSI characteristics are associated with STB after NSSI.

METHOD

Using discrete-time survival models, based on retrospective age of onset reports from college students (n = 6,393, 56.8% female), we examined associations of temporally prior NSSI with subsequent STB (i.e., suicide ideation, plan, and attempt) controlling mental disorders (i.e., MDD, Broad Mania, GAD, Panic Disorder, and risk for Alcohol Dependence). NSSI characteristics associated with subsequent STB were examined using logistic regressions.

RESULTS

NSSI was associated with increased odds of subsequent suicide ideation (OR = 2.8), plan (OR = 3.0), and attempt (OR = 5.5) in models that controlled for the distribution of mental disorders. Further analyses revealed that NSSI was associated with increased risk of transitioning to a plan among those with ideation, as well as attempt among those with a plan (ORs = 1.7-2.1). Several NSSI characteristics (e.g., automatic positive reinforcement, earlier onset NSSI) were associated with increased odds of experiencing STB.

LIMITATIONS

Surveys relied on self-report, and thus, there is the potential for recall bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides support for the conceptualization of NSSI as a risk factor for STB. Investigation of the underlying pathways accounting for these time-ordered associations is an important avenue for future research.

Problematic alcohol use and suicidal ideation among firefighters: A multi-study investigation of the explanatory roles of perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness

BACKGROUND

Firefighters are at increased risk for both problematic alcohol use and suicidality. Research has found that problematic alcohol use is related to suicidality among this population; however, limited data exist regarding what might account for this association. The present two-study investigation (1) examined the association between suicidality and problematic alcohol use among two large samples of firefighters and (2) tested whether interpersonal theory of suicide constructs-perceived burdensomeness (PB) and thwarted belongingness (TB)-serve as indirect indicators of this relationship.

METHODS

Participants in Study 1 were 944 U.S. firefighters (12.5% female); participants in Study 2 were 241 U.S. women firefighters. Participants completed the Interpersonal Needs Questionnaire, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, and the Depressive Symptom Inventory-Suicidality Subscale (Study 1) or the Self-Injurious Thoughts and Behaviors Interview-Short Form (Study 2). Bias-corrected bootstrap indirect effects path analyses were utilized.

RESULTS

In Study 1, more problematic alcohol use was significantly associated with more severe career suicidal ideation via PB but not TB. In Study 2, problematic alcohol use was associated with career suicidal ideation via both PB and TB. PB seems to account for the relationship between problematic alcohol use and career suicidal ideation among male and female firefighters.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations include use of a cross-sectional design, use of retrospective measures of suicidal ideation, and our findings derived from subsamples of two existing datasets.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that PB and TB may explain the relationship between problematic alcohol use and suicidal ideation, but that this effect is discrepant based on gender.

Lifetime acute suicidal affective disturbance symptoms account for the link between suicide-specific rumination and lifetime past suicide attempts

BACKGROUND

Suicide-specific rumination, defined as rumination about one's suicidal thoughts, intentions, and plans, and Acute Suicidal Affective Disturbance (ASAD) have each been proposed as relevant and proximal predictors of suicidal behavior. The purpose of the current study was to examine relations between suicide-specific rumination, ASAD, and previous number of lifetime suicide attempts, particularly whether ASAD accounted for the association between suicide-specific rumination and previous lifetime suicide attempts.

METHODS

Undergraduate students with a past history of suicidality (N = 300) completed measures of their suicide-specific rumination, lifetime ASAD symptoms, and lifetime history of suicide attempts on an online questionnaire in exchange for course credit.

RESULTS

ASAD accounted for the association between suicide-specific rumination and lifetime number of past suicide attempts. This effect was particularly driven by suicidal intent aspect of ASAD, as opposed to the ASAD social alienation, self-alienation, and overarousal facets. An alternative model indicated that suicide-specific rumination did not account for the association between ASAD and lifetime past suicide attempts.

LIMITATIONS

This study utilized exclusively self-report measures and a cross-sectional design, thereby precluding inferences of causality.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicated that ASAD may explain the relationship between suicide-specific rumination and lifetime past suicide attempts. Future research using a prospective design is needed to elucidate these patterns and determine causal relationships.

Correlates of suicide ideation and behaviors among transgender people: A systematic review guided by ideation-to-action theory

Transgender people are at high risk for suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths compared to the general population. Several correlates of suicide ideation and attempts have been identified empirically to understand this increased risk. However, few attempts have been made to systematically review this literature. Further, a theory to understand and identify targetable factors for intervention has rarely been applied to this population. In the first systematic review guided by ideation-to-action frameworks of suicide, we systematically reviewed the literature from January 1991 to July 2017 regarding correlates of suicide ideation, attempts, and deaths among transgender people. To be included in the review, articles must have been reported in English, reported on empirical data, included a sample or subsample of transgender people, and reported separately on correlates of suicide ideation, attempts, or deaths. Two independent reviewers searched three major databases, references of included articles, and unpublished literature, which produced 45 articles for review. The review suggested that ideation-to-action frameworks would be worth investigating within this population, with attention to sources of psychological pain, social connectedness, and capacity/capability for suicide unique to this population. Additionally, other aspects of cultural identity were often studied (e.g., race, religion), suggesting the need to understand intersectionality of identities among transgender people and their effects on suicide risk. Finally, the review highlighted important limitations of the literature, namely measurement of suicide ideation and attempts and sampling method, which future work should seek to improve.