Accuracy of risk scores for patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving entecavir treatment

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Absence of Cirrhosis in United States Veterans is Associated With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can develop in individuals without cirrhosis. We investigated risk factors for development of HCC in the absence of cirrhosis in a U.S.

METHODS

We identified a national cohort of 1500 patients with verified HCC during 2005 to 2010 in the U.S. Veterans Administration (VA) and reviewed their full VA medical records for evidence of cirrhosis and risk factors for HCC. Patients without cirrhosis were assigned to categories of level 1 evidence for no cirrhosis (very high probability) or level 2 evidence for no cirrhosis (high probability), which were based on findings from histologic analyses, laboratory test results, markers of fibrosis from noninvasive tests, and imaging features.

RESULTS

A total of 43 of the 1500 patients with HCC (2.9%) had level 1 evidence for no cirrhosis, and 151 (10.1%) had level 2 evidence for no cirrhosis; the remaining 1203 patients (80.1%) had confirmed cirrhosis. Compared with patients with HCC in presence of cirrhosis, greater proportions of patients with HCC without evidence of cirrhosis had metabolic syndrome, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), or no identifiable risk factors. Patients with HCC without evidence of cirrhosis were less likely to have abused alcohol or have hepatitis C virus infection than patients with cirrhosis. Patients with HCC and NAFLD (unadjusted odds ratio, 5.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.4-8.5) or metabolic syndrome (unadjusted odds ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 3.1-7.8) had more than 5-fold risk of having HCC in the absence of cirrhosis, compared with patients with HCV-related HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 13% of patients with HCC in the VA system do not appear to have cirrhosis. NAFLD and metabolic syndrome are the main risk factors for HCC in the absence of cirrhosis.

Asian-Pacific clinical practice guidelines on the management of hepatitis B: a 2015 update

Worldwide, some 240 million people have chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV), with the highest rates of infection in Africa and Asia. Our understanding of the natural history of HBV infection and the potential for therapy of the resultant disease is continuously improving. New data have become available since the previous APASL guidelines for management of HBV infection were published in 2012. The objective of this manuscript is to update the recommendations for the optimal management of chronic HBV infection. The 2015 guidelines were developed by a panel of Asian experts chosen by the APASL. The clinical practice guidelines are based on evidence from existing publications or, if evidence was unavailable, on the experts' personal experience and opinion after deliberations. Manuscripts and abstracts of important meetings published through January 2015 have been evaluated. This guideline covers the full spectrum of care of patients infected with hepatitis B, including new terminology, natural history, screening, vaccination, counseling, diagnosis, assessment of the stage of liver disease, the indications, timing, choice and duration of single or combination of antiviral drugs, screening for HCC, management in special situations like childhood, pregnancy, coinfections, renal impairment and pre- and post-liver transplant, and policy guidelines. However, areas of uncertainty still exist, and clinicians, patients, and public health authorities must therefore continue to make choices on the basis of the evolving evidence. The final clinical practice guidelines and recommendations are presented here, along with the relevant background information.

Liver cancer screening in high-risk populations

Patients with liver disease have a risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the risk varies between different diseases and is also different according to several other variables, such as age, type of underlying liver disease and severity of disease. Several risk scores have been developed to more adequately quantitate HCC risk in individual patients. Each risk score is applicable to a specific population (chronic hepatitis B or C, patients on the transplant list, cirrhosis in general, and so on). Most publications on risk scores do not provide clear guidance as to what level of measured risk is sufficient to trigger surveillance.

Validation of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in the era of antiviral therapy

Several risk prediction models have been created to predict hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence, with promising results. However, their prognostic performances need to be validated in the era of antiviral therapy. From 2006 to 2011, patients with chronic HBV infection were recruited and those with a history of HCC or hepatic decompensation were excluded. At enrollment, liver stiffness (LS) was measured using transient elastography. We assessed the performances of conventional HCC prediction models (CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC scores) and the modified REACH-B (mREACH-B) score where LS values were incorporated into REACH-B score instead of serum HBV-DNA levels. Of 1,308 subjects analyzed, the median age was 50.0 years (883 men). During the follow-up (median, 75.3 months), HCC developed in 125 (9.6%) patients. mREACH-B score had the highest areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for the prediction of HCC development at 3/5 years (0.828/0.806), compared with LSM-HCC (0.777/0.759), GAG-HCC (0.751/0.757), REACH-B (0.717/0.699), and CU-HCC (0.698/0.700) scores, respectively, with statistical significances (all P values <0.05 vs. mREACH-B). When serum HBV-DNA levels were excluded from the formula for REACH-B score, AUROCs for HCC development at 3/5 years improved paradoxically (from 0.717/0.699 to 0.757/0.732, respectively). In patients with antiviral therapy (n = 848), mREACH-B score had the better prognostic performances for HCC development at 3/5 years, compared to other prediction models. However, in patients without antiviral therapy (n = 460), it had the prognostic performances comparable to those of other prediction models.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic performances of mREACH-B score seemed better compared to conventional models. In the era of antiviral therapy, incorporation of serum HBV-DNA level should be applied cautiously and individual risks should be assessed effectively based on the fibrotic burden.

Infection and Cancer: The Case of Hepatitis B

Infection is a well-described cause of cancer in humans. Being one of the most common infections worldwide, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), particularly in Asian countries. The etiological link between HBV and HCC provides an important opportunity for health care policy makers and clinicians to intervene with HBV infection to prevent cancer development and improve the outcomes of cancer. This review aims to use HBV as an example to illustrate the potential of tackling infection-related conditions to help improve cancer outcomes. This article is divided into four parts: In the first part, an overview is given on the epidemiologic data and risk factors of HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B. In the second part, recent progress on the anti-HBV strategies for preventing HCC is updated. In the third part, approaches to improve the outcomes of established HBV-related HCC are covered. These methods include surveillance strategies to identify asymptomatic HCC among patients with chronic HBV infection, and use of antiviral treatment to avoid HBV reactivation during treatment for HCC and reduce the recurrence of HCC after curative treatment. Finally, the status of the development of targeted drugs specifically for HBV-related HCC is discussed in the section on future development.

Can we use HCC risk scores to individualize surveillance in chronic hepatitis B infection?

Chronic hepatitis B is one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Accurate prediction of HCC risk is important for decisions on antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance. In the last few years, a number of Asian groups have derived and validated several HCC risk scores based on well-known risk factors such as cirrhosis, age, male sex and high viral load. Overall, these scores have high negative predictive values of over 95% in excluding HCC development in 3 to 10 years. The REACH-B score was derived from a community cohort of non-cirrhotic patients and is better applied in the primary care setting. In contrast, the GAG-HCC and CU-HCC scores were derived from hospital cohorts and include cirrhosis as a major integral component. While the latter scores may be more applicable to patients at specialist clinics, the diagnosis of cirrhosis based on routine imaging and clinical parameters can be inaccurate. To this end, recent developments in non-invasive tests of liver fibrosis may further refine the risk prediction. The application of HCC risk scores in patients on antiviral therapy and in other ethnic groups should be evaluated in future studies.

Optimal surveillance program for hepatocellular carcinoma - getting ready, but not yet

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) secondary to chronic viral hepatitis is a major health problem in Asian-Pacific regions due to the endemics of chronic hepatitis B and C virus infection. HCC surveillance has been recommended to patients who are at risk to develop HCC. Unfortunately, a significant proportion of patients still died in long run due to tumor recurrence. The key components of an optimal surveillance program include an accurate tumor biomarker and optimal surveillance interval. Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), despite of being the most widely used biomarker for HCC surveillance, it was criticized as neither sensitive nor specific. Other HCC biomarkers, including lectin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3), des-gamma carboxyprothrombin, are still under investigations. Recent study showed cancer-associated genome-wide hypomethylation and copy number aberrations by plasma DNA bisulfite sequencing to be accurate with both sensitivity and specificity close to 90% in detecting HCC in a case-control study. Concerning the optimal surveillance interval, we believe one size does not fit all patients. Accurate risk prediction to assist prognostication with well-validated HCC risk scores would be useful to decide the need for HCC surveillance. These key components of an optimal HCC surveillance program should be further validated at a surveillance setting.

Entecavir treatment does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: limited role for risk scores in Caucasians

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-scores may predict HCC in Asian entecavir (ETV)-treated patients. We aimed to study risk factors and performance of risk scores during ETV treatment in an ethnically diverse Western population.

METHODS

We studied all HBV monoinfected patients treated with ETV from 11 European referral centres within the VIRGIL Network.

RESULTS

A total of 744 patients were included; 42% Caucasian, 29% Asian, 19% other, 10% unknown. At baseline, 164 patients (22%) had cirrhosis. During a median follow-up of 167 (IQR 82-212) weeks, 14 patients developed HCC of whom nine (64%) had cirrhosis at baseline. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of HCC was 2.1% for non-cirrhotic and 10.9% for cirrhotic patients (p<0.001). HCC incidence was higher in older patients (p<0.001) and patients with lower baseline platelet counts (p=0.02). Twelve patients who developed HCC achieved virologic response (HBV DNA <80 IU/mL) before HCC. At baseline, higher CU-HCC and GAG-HCC, but not REACH-B scores were associated with development of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was low, with sensitivity ranging from 18% to 73%, and c-statistics from 0.71 to 0.85. Performance was further reduced in Caucasians with c-statistics from 0.54 to 0.74. Predicted risk of HCC based on risk-scores declined during ETV therapy (all p<0.001), but predictive performances after 1 year were comparable to those at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative incidence of HCC is low in patients treated with ETV, but ETV does not eliminate the risk of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was limited, particularly in Caucasians, at baseline and during therapy.

Management of hepatitis B virus infection during treatment for hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Although liver resection is considered the most effective treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), treatment outcomes are unsatisfactory because of the high rate of HCC recurrence. Since we reported hepatitis B e-antigen positivity and high serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA concentrations are strong risk factors for HCC recurrence after curative resection of HBV-related HCC in the early 2000s, many investigators have demonstrated the effects of viral status on HCC recurrence and post-treatment outcomes. These findings suggest controlling viral status is important to prevent HCC recurrence and improve survival after curative treatment for HBV-related HCC. Antiviral therapy after curative treatment aims to improve prognosis by preventing HCC recurrence and maintaining liver function. Therapy with interferon and nucleos(t)ide analogs may be useful for preventing HCC recurrence and improving overall survival in patients who have undergone curative resection for HBV-related HCC. In addition, reactivation of viral replication can occur after liver resection for HBV-related HCC. Antiviral therapy can be recommended for patients to prevent HBV reactivation. Nevertheless, further studies are required to establish treatment guidelines for patients with HBV-related HCC.

Impact of long-term tenofovir disoproxil fumarate on incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Efficacy trials have shown that antiviral therapy improves the outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. However, prospective data regarding the effect of antiviral therapy on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially among patients without cirrhosis, are limited. The authors examined the impact of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) on the incidence of HCC using a validated prediction model.

METHODS

The incidence of HCC in patients treated with TDF was obtained in the pivotal TDF registration studies after 384 weeks of follow-up. The predicted risk of HCC in individual patients was calculated using the Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B (REACH-B) model, which estimates HCC incidence for up to 10 years based on age, sex, alanine aminotransferase level, hepatitis B e antigen status, and HBV-DNA. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated comparing the observed and predicted numbers of HCC cases in the study cohort.

RESULTS

Among 634 patients with evaluable baseline biopsies, 152 had cirrhosis (Ishak fibrosis score of 5 or 6) and 482 did not. During the 384 weeks of study, 14 cases of HCC were reported, with 4 occurring within the first year. The incidence of HCC was 0.37% per year in the study as a whole (0.28% among patients without cirrhosis and 0.65% among patients with cirrhosis). Among patients without cirrhosis, the observed incidence of HCC was significantly lower than predicted (SIR, 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.199-0.795). The last HCC case in a patient with cirrhosis occurred around week 192 with an SIR of 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.231-1.144) reported at week 384.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the REACH-B risk calculator, long-term therapy with TDF was associated with a reduced incidence of HCC among patients without cirrhosis who met treatment criteria.

Rates of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B and the role of surveillance: a 10-year follow-up of 673 patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are critical milestones in the natural history of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. There are no prospective data on the risk of these critical milestones in HBV patients in Singapore. The efficacy and justification of HCC surveillance is determined by the rate of HCC development. Our study aims to determine the rates of cirrhosis and HCC in HBV patients in Singapore and hence the appropriateness of HCC surveillance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 673 HBV patients were enrolled between March 2003 and March 2004 and followed up for 10 years with regular surveillance for HCC using α-fetoprotein and abdominal ultrasound.

RESULTS

Overall, 62.6% of the patients were men, mean age 56.4 years. In all, 31% were hepatitis B e antigen-positive and 14.9% had cirrhosis at baseline. Seventy-four patients developed cirrhosis and 42 patients developed HCC after 10 years. The overall 10-year incidence of cirrhosis and HCC was 16.2% (1.6%/year) and 7.8% (0.8%/year), respectively. The overall incidence of HCC in cirrhotics was 29.7% (3.0%/year), highest within a year of diagnosis of cirrhosis (7.9%). The rate of cirrhosis was significantly higher in those aged more than 55 years (P=0.001). Sex and hepatitis B e antigen status did not affect the rate of cirrhosis. Factors with significantly higher overall rates of HCC were age 55 years or more (P=0.001), male sex (P=0.001), and baseline α-fetoprotein of 4.1 µg/l or more (P<0.0001). However, age more than 55 years was not significant in the development of HCC in cirrhotics.

CONCLUSION

The rate of cirrhosis in HBV patients in Singapore is about 1.6% per year. The rate of HCC is about 0.8% per year overall and 3.0% per year in cirrhotics, which justifies HCC surveillance.

Risk for hepatocellular carcinoma in the course of chronic hepatitis B virus infection and the protective effect of therapy with nucleos(t)ide analogues

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem worldwide, representing one of the leading causes of death. Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (CHB) is the most important etiologic factor of this tumor, accounting for the development of more than 50% of the cases in the world. Primary prevention of HCC is possible by hepatitis B vaccination conferring protection from HBV infection. However, according to the World Health Organization Hepatitis B Fact sheet N° 204 (update of July 2014) globally there exists a large pool of > 240 million people chronically infected with HBV who are at risk for development of HCC. These individuals represent a target population for secondary prevention both of cirrhosis and of HCC. Since ongoing HBV replication in CHB is linked with the progression of the underlying liver disease to cirrhosis as well as with the development of HCC, effective antiviral treatment in CHB has also been evaluated in terms of secondary prevention of HCC. Currently, most patients with active CHB are subjected to long term treatment with the first line nucleos(t)ide analogues entecavir and tenofovir. These compounds are of high antiviral potency and have a high barrier to HBV resistance compared to lamivudine, adefovir dipivoxil and even telbivudine. Many studies have shown that patients under antiviral treatment, especially those in virological remission, develop less frequently HCC compared to the untreated ones. However, the risk for development of HCC cannot be eliminated. Therefore, surveillance for the development of HCC of patients with chronic hepatitis B must be lifelong or until a time in the future when new treatments will be able to completely eradicate HBV from the liver particularly in the early stages of CHB infection. In this context, the aim of this review is to outline the magnitude of the risk for development of HCC among patients with CHB, in the various phases of the infection and in relation to virus, host and environmental factors as evaluated in the world literature. Moreover, the benefits of antiviral treatment of CHB with nucleos/tide analogs, which have changed the natural history of the disease and have reduced but not eliminated the risk of HCC are also reviewed.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: assessment and modification with current antiviral therapy

In the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), the ultimate goal is preventing hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated liver disease, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently published studies show that in CHB patients treated with the currently recommended first-line nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) entecavir or tenofovir, annual HCC incidences range from 0.01% to 1.4% in non-cirrhotic patients, and from 0.9% to 5.4% in those with cirrhosis. In Asian studies including matched untreated controls, current NA therapy consistently resulted in a significantly lower HCC incidence in patients with cirrhosis, amounting to an overall HCC risk reduction of ∼30%; in non-cirrhotic patients, HCC risk reduction was overall ∼80%, but this was only observed in some studies. For patients of Caucasian origin, no appropriate comparative studies are available to date to evaluate the impact of NA treatment on HCC. Achievement of a virologic response under current NA therapy was associated with a lower HCC risk in Asian, but not Caucasian studies. Studies comparing entecavir or tenofovir with older NAs generally found no difference in HCC risk reduction between agents, except for one study which used no rescue therapy in patients developing lamivudine resistance. Overall, these data indicate that with the current, potent NAs, HCC risk can be reduced but not eliminated, probably due to risk factors that are not amenable to change by antiviral therapy, or events that may have taken place before treatment initiation. Validated pre- and on-therapy HCC risk calculators that inform the best practice for HCC surveillance and facilitate patient counseling would be of great practical value.

Adverse effects of vitamin D deficiency on outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Vitamin D is an immunomodulator that might be involved in the pathogenesis of viral hepatitis. We investigated the effects of vitamin D deficiency on long-term outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study of 426 patients with CHB (65% male; mean age, 41 ± 13 years), who were enrolled from 1997 through 2000. Serum levels of 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D3) were measured on study enrollment (baseline). Patients were followed for 159 ± 46 months until last clinic visit or death; approximately 33% received antiviral therapy during the follow-up period. The primary outcome was a clinical event (hepatocellular carcinoma, complications of cirrhosis, or death).

RESULTS

At baseline, the patients' mean serum level of hepatitis B virus DNA was 5.0 ± 2.1 log10 IU/mL; their mean level of 25(OH)D3 was 24.3 ± 9.4 ng/mL, and 348 patients (82%) had vitamin D deficiency (<32 ng/mL). Serum levels of 25(OH)D3 did not correlate with cirrhosis or viral load. Ninety-seven patients (22.8%) developed clinical events by a mean time of 118 ± 60 months after study enrollment. Patients who developed clinical events had lower baseline serum levels of 25(OH)D3 (23.2 ± 10.4 ng/mL) than patients who did not (28.2 ± 9.3 ng/mL, P < .001). Low baseline serum 25(OH)D3 was an independent factor associated with clinical events after adjustment for sex, age, and cirrhosis. The adjusted hazard ratio of vitamin D deficiency for clinical events was 1.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.43; P = .04). The 15-year cumulative incidence rate of clinical events among patients with vitamin D deficiency was 25.5% (95% CI, 23.1%-27.9%), compared with 11.1% (95% CI, 7.4%-14.8%) in patients with normal serum levels of 25(OH)D3.

CONCLUSIONS

Vitamin D deficiency is common among patients with CHB and is associated with adverse clinical outcomes.

Personalized treatment of hepatitis B

There are seven approved drugs for treatment of hepatitis B. Professional guidelines provide a framework for managing patients but these guidelines should be interpreted in the context of the individual patient's clinical and social circumstances. Personalized management of hepatitis B can be applied based on prediction of the individual patient's risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma to guide the frequency and intensity of monitoring and urgency of treatment. It can also be applied to decisions regarding when to start treatment, which drug to use, and when to stop based on the individual patient's disease characteristics, preference, comorbidities and other mitigating circumstances.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B patients with or without cirrhosis treated with entecavir: HepNet.Greece cohort

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may still develop in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with lamivudine. Whether HCC rates are comparable in patients treated with the current first-line antivirals remains uncertain. We estimated the incidence and evaluated predictors of HCC in a large nationwide prospective cohort (HepNet.Greece) of HBeAg-negative CHB patients treated with entecavir. HBeAg-negative CHB patients from the same cohort who were initially treated with lamivudine were used as controls. We included 321 patients treated with entecavir for a median of 40 months and 818 patients treated initially with lamivudine for a median of 60 months. In the entecavir group, HCC developed in 4 of 321 (1.2%) patients at a median of 1.5 (range: 1.0-4.5) years, while the cumulative HCC incidence was significantly higher in cirrhotics than noncirrhotics (1, 3, 5 years: 0%, 3%, 9% vs 1%, 1%, 1%; P = 0.024) and in older patients (P = 0.026). Entecavir compared with lamivudine group patients had lower HCC incidence (1, 3, 5 years: 0.3%, 1.2%, 2.8% vs 0.7%, 3.8%, 5.6%; P = 0.024). However, in multivariable Cox regression analysis, the HCC risk was independently associated with older age (P < 0.001), male gender (P = 0.011) and cirrhosis (P = 0.025), but not with the initial agent. In conclusion, our large nationwide study indicates that the HCC risk remains increased in entecavir-treated HBeAg-negative CHB patients with cirrhosis, particularly of older age, at least for the first 5 years. The HCC risk does not seem to be significantly reduced with entecavir compared with antiviral therapy starting with lamivudine.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir (TDF), is unclear. We evaluated the incidence and predictors of HCC and the accuracy of existing HCC risk scores in Caucasian CHB patients receiving ETV/TDF.

METHODS

This large, multicentre, retrospective cohort study included 1666 adult Caucasian CHB patients under ETV/TDF for 39 months. CHB without cirrhosis, compensated and decompensated cirrhosis were present in 67%, 39%, and 3% of patients, respectively. The predictability of baseline parameters and three risk scores (GAG-HCC, CU-HCC, and REACH-B), developed in Asian patients, was assessed.

RESULTS

The cumulative probability of HCC was 1.3%, 3.4%, and 8.7% at year-1, year-3, and year-5 after ETV/TDF onset. Older age and lower platelets were strong independent HCC predictors in the total population and in the subgroups of cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients, while liver disease severity was an independent HCC predictor in the total population and in the cirrhotics. GAG-HCC, CU-HCC, and REACH-B risk scores were associated with HCC development only in the univariable but not in the multivariable analyses and offered poor to modest predictability.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC can still develop in Caucasian CHB patients treated with ETV/TDF. Besides the well-known predictors of HCC, such as older age, male gender and more advanced liver disease, lower platelets represent an independent factor of higher HCC risk. The applicability and predictability of HCC risk scores developed in Asian patients are poor or modest in Caucasian CHB patients, for whom different risk scores are required.

Antiviral therapy improves post-hepatectomy survival in patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective-retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The effect of antiviral therapy on the post-hepatectomy long-term survival in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain.

AIM

To evaluate the effect of antiviral therapy on post-hepatectomy survival and recurrence in patients with HBV-related HCC.

METHODS

This was a prospective-retrospective study of a total of 404 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HBV-related HCC in a tertiary academic hospital. Data on patient and tumour characteristics, tumour recurrence, treatment for recurrence and survival were compared between antiviral and no antiviral groups.

RESULTS

Patient's and tumour characteristics were comparable between the two groups, except a higher proportion of patients with cirrhosis in the antiviral group. With a mean follow-up time of 52.4 months, antiviral group had a better 5-year overall survival (66.7% vs. 56.0%, P = 0.001) while there was no significant difference in the 5-year disease-free survival (44.7% vs. 38.1%, P = 0.166). Use of antiviral therapy was associated with better liver function reserve at the time of recurrence and a greater proportion of patients could receive curative treatment for recurrence (38.5% vs. 24.3%, P = 0.041). There was no significant different in the hazard ratios of patients who started antiviral therapy before or after operation (P = 0.054).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of antiviral therapy improves the long-term post-hepatectomy survival in patients with HBV-related HCC. With a better liver function reserve at the time of recurrence, a greater proportion of patients in antiviral group could receive curative treatment for recurrence.

Optimal therapy of chronic hepatitis B: how do I treat my HBeAg-negative patients?

HBeAg negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a frequent, progressive and difficult-to-cure phase of CHB. The end-point of therapy is to persistently suppress viral replication to halt progression of liver disease. Two different treatment strategies are currently available: a short-term course of pegylated interferon alpha (PEG-IFN) or long-term therapy with nucleot(s)ide analogues (NA), i.e. entecavir or tenofovir. Young patients with mild-to-moderate stages of liver disease can benefit from a 48-week course of PEG-IFN, while NA may be preferred in patients with more severe liver disease, in older patients, and in those who do not respond, are unwilling or have contraindications to PEG-IFN. Nucleot(s)ide analogues provide persistent viral suppression and biochemical normalization in almost all patients, together with the regression of fibrosis and the prevention of decompensation, but the effect on hepatocellular carcinoma rates is limited. Thus, NAs have become the most popular treatment strategy worldwide but lifelong administration is associated with high cost, unknown safety and adherence issues and an unknown risk of drug-resistance over time as well as limited rates of HBsAg seroclearance. On the other hand, PEG-IFN treatment may achieve a SVR in nearly a quarter of patients ultimately leading to HBsAg loss in almost 30-50%. Interestingly, response rates to PEG-IFN may further increase with more careful patient selection based on age, ALT and HBV DNA levels at baseline and by applying early on-treatment stopping rules based on HBV DNA and HBsAg kinetics. The combination of NA and PEG-IFN is not currently recommended but numerous studies are ongoing.

Combination therapy of interferon and nucleotide/nucleoside analogues for chronic hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B is one of the leading causes of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. At present, seven drugs, including two interferons and five oral nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs), have been approved for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. Interferon works by immunomodulation, but is successful in less than a third of treated patients and is a relatively weak antiviral. NAs directly suppress the hepatitis B virus but have limited durability. Based on current data, combination of NA and interferon results in greater viral suppression but does not translate to off-treatment sustained response. Concomitant or sequential treatment also does not make a difference. Combining telbivudine and interferon also runs the risk of severe peripheral neuropathy. On the other hand, interferon switch or additional therapy in patients well controlled with NAs appears to improve the durability of off-treatment response. This article reviews current data on interferon and NA combination and discusses potential future developments.

No resistance to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate through 96 weeks of treatment in patients with lamivudine-resistant chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A recent study compared the efficacy of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs the combination of emtricitabine and TDF (FTC/TDF) in patients with lamivudine-resistant chronic hepatitis B who were treated for as long as 96 weeks. We report findings from resistance analyses conducted for this study.

METHODS

Two hundred eighty patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and lamivudine resistance (confirmed by INNO-LiPA Multi-DR) were randomly assigned (1:1) to groups treated with TDF or FTC/TDF. The HBV reverse transcriptase domain from the polymerase gene from all patients was sequenced at baseline and from 18 viremic patients at week 96 or early discontinuation.

RESULTS

At screening for the efficacy study, 99% of patients were found to have lamivudine resistance. Prior exposure to entecavir or entecavir resistance was observed in 12% of patients, and 22% of patients had been previously exposed to adefovir; 1.8% were resistant to adefovir. Only 18 patients (6.4%) qualified for sequence analysis, including 1 patient who experienced virologic breakthrough and 17 with persistent viremia. Six of these patients did not have any sequence changes from baseline in HBV reverse transcriptase (33%), and sequence analysis could not be performed for 5 patients (28%). In 2 patients who qualified for phenotypic analysis (1 given TDF and 1 given FTC/TDF), no resistance to TDF was observed. Neither previous treatment exposure nor resistance to entecavir or adefovir affected viral kinetics. However, the mean baseline level of HBV DNA was significantly higher in viremic patients than in patients with viral suppression by week 96 (7.28 log10 IU/mL vs 5.62 log10 IU/mL; P = .0003).

CONCLUSIONS

No resistance to TDF was detected through 96 weeks of treatment in patients with lamivudine-resistant chronic hepatitis B. Prior treatment or resistance to entecavir or adefovir did not affect viral kinetics through 96 weeks. No additional benefit was observed with the addition of emtricitabine vs TDF monotherapy. ClinicalTrial.gov number: NCT00737568.

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma is reduced in patients with chronic hepatitis B on long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy

BACKGROUND

North American data are lacking on the effect of nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) in preventing chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIM

To determine the incidence of HCC in NA-treated patients and compare this risk with that predicted without treatment based on the REACH-B model.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, the incidence of HCC was determined in CHB patients initiated on NA from 1999 to 2012. Pre-treatment data utilised in the REACH-B model were used to predict the annual HCC risk. The standardised incidence ratio (SIR) for HCC was calculated by comparing the observed to expected number of cases, and HCC risk factors determined by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Five hundred and forty nine initiated NA (14% lamivudine, 5% adefovir, 1.5% telbivudine, 39% entecavir, 41% tenofovir). Over a median follow-up of 3.2 years (IQR 1.9-4.6), 11 (3.2%) were diagnosed with HCC. Among 322 with data to calculate the REACH-B model, the median age at treatment initiation was 46 years (IQR 38-55), 65% were male, 32% HBeAg positive and 20% had cirrhosis. The median pre-treatment ALT was 71 U/L (IQR 41-127) and HBV DNA was 6.48 log10 copies/mL (4.95-8.04). The observed annual HCC incidence (0.9%; 95% CI 0.5-1.7) was significantly lower than predicted without treatment by the REACH-B model (SIR 0.46; 95% CI 0.23-0.82); this risk was reduced after 4 years of therapy (SIR 0.49; 95% CI 0.2-1.00).

CONCLUSIONS

In this Canadian study of nucleos(t)ide analogues-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B, the incidence of HCC was lower than expected, suggesting that NA reduce the risk of chronic hepatitis B-related HCC.

Staging chronic hepatitis B into seven categories, defining inactive carriers and assessing treatment impact using a fibrosis biomarker (FibroTest®) and elastography (FibroScan®)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The first aim was to extend the validation of FibroTest® (FT) and transient elastography (TE) as markers of occurrence of cirrhosis without complications (F4.1), oesophageal varices (F4.2), and severe complications (F4.3) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The second aim was to validate a previous definition of an inactive carrier based on normal FT and ActiTest® (normal-FT-AT). The third aim was to assess the long-term dynamics of fibrosis in patients with sustained virological response.

METHODS

The 10-year updated individual data of 1434 patients were pooled from two prospective cohorts.

RESULTS

Of the 1312 patients without a history of complications, varices had occurred after 10 years in 14 patients (F4.2, incidence of 1.7%, 95% CI [0.6-2.8]), and severe complications in 25 (F4.3 3.7% [1.8-5.7]), including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 21 (3.7% [1.5-5.8]). Using Cox-multivariate analysis adjusted for treatment, viral load, HBeAg status and ALT, FT, and TE were predictive of liver complications (n=37; AUROC=0.83 [0.71-0.90]; p<0.0001) and (n=8/844; AUROC=0.82 [0.72-0.89]; p<0.0001) respectively. Normal FT-AT better identified patients with lower fibrosis progression than the ALT-based standard: 3/163 (1.8%) vs. 16/181 (8.8%; p=0.004) in the Paris cohort, and 5/195 (2.6%) vs. 15/228 (6.6%; p=0.05) in the Bordeaux cohort. Of the 582 responders, 23 had complications (incidence 6.2% [3.2-9.1]) including 19 HCC (5.8% [2.6-9.0]) and 10 with varices (2.6% [0.8-4.4]). Of the 138 responders with advanced fibrosis, only 31% (15-47%) had fibrosis regression.

CONCLUSIONS

FibroTest® and TE identified three categories of cirrhosis with increasing morbidity. Normal FibroTest® and ActiTest® were better able to identify inactive hepatitis B carriers than the standard definition. Despite virological response, the overall incidence of cirrhosis increased, with a remaining 5.8% risk of HCC.

External validation of new risk prediction models is infrequent and reveals worse prognostic discrimination

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate how often newly developed risk prediction models undergo external validation and how well they perform in such validations.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We reviewed derivation studies of newly proposed risk models and their subsequent external validations. Study characteristics, outcome(s), and models' discriminatory performance [area under the curve, (AUC)] in derivation and validation studies were extracted. We estimated the probability of having a validation, change in discriminatory performance with more stringent external validation by overlapping or different authors compared to the derivation estimates.

RESULTS

We evaluated 127 new prediction models. Of those, for 32 models (25%), at least an external validation study was identified; in 22 models (17%), the validation had been done by entirely different authors. The probability of having an external validation by different authors within 5 years was 16%. AUC estimates significantly decreased during external validation vs. the derivation study [median AUC change: -0.05 (P < 0.001) overall; -0.04 (P = 0.009) for validation by overlapping authors; -0.05 (P < 0.001) for validation by different authors]. On external validation, AUC decreased by at least 0.03 in 19 models and never increased by at least 0.03 (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

External independent validation of predictive models in different studies is uncommon. Predictive performance may worsen substantially on external validation.

Role of antiviral treatment for HCC prevention

Chemoprevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is listed as a yet highly debated long-term benefit of a successful treatment of patients with chronic viral hepatitis. In the hepatitis B virus (HBV) arena, the retrospective scrutiny of both interferon and nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUC) studies failed to provide robust evidence for HCC chemoprevention, due to a number of confoundings in the studies that were originally designed to assess the antiviral activity of interferon therapy. However, the reanalysis of outcomes following patients stratification for risk factors of HCC, provided a clue to find an association between NUC therapy and a reduced risk of liver cancer in non cirrhotic patients, only. In the hepatitis C scenario, a meta analysis of 30 observational studies of patients treated with interferon demonstrated a more than 70% reduction of HCC risk occurring independently of severity of underlying liver fibrosis which was less pronounced in aged patients and those with more advanced liver fibrosis. While the reasons for the residual risk of HCC in virological responders remain largely unexplained, international societies recommend surveillance for HCC of both HBV and HCV responders to antiviral therapy.

Prediction of fibrosis progression in chronic viral hepatitis

Prediction of liver fibrosis progression has a key role in the management of chronic viral hepatitis, as it will be translated into the future risk of cirrhosis and its various complications including hepatocellular carcinoma. Both hepatitis B and C viruses mainly lead to fibrogenesis induced by chronic inflammation and a continuous wound healing response. At the same time direct and indirect profibrogenic responses are also elicited by the viral infection. There are a handful of well-established risk factors for fibrosis progression including older age, male gender, alcohol use, high viral load and co-infection with other viruses. Metabolic syndrome is an evolving risk factor of fibrosis progression. The new notion of regression of advanced fibrosis or even cirrhosis is now strongly supported various clinical studies. Even liver biopsy retains its important role in the assessment of fibrosis progression, various non-invasive assessments have been adopted widely because of their non-invasiveness, which facilitates serial applications in large cohorts of subjects. Transient elastography is one of the most validated tools which has both diagnostic and prognostic role. As there is no single perfect test for liver fibrosis assessment, algorithms combining the most validated noninvasive methods should be considered as initial screening tools.

Long-term changes of liver stiffness values assessed using transient elastography in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving entecavir

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver stiffness (LS) measurement using transient elastography allows for accurate evaluation of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver disease. We aimed to investigate the influence of antiviral treatment using entecavir (ETV) on LS values in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

121 patients with CHB who completed a 3-year ETV treatment were recruited. LS values were measured before starting ETV (baseline) and after the completion of the 3-year treatment. A significant decline in the LS value was defined as a ≥30% drop from the baseline.

RESULTS

The median baseline LS value of the patients was 14.3 kPa. However, it decreased significantly to 7.3 kPa after 3-year ETV treatment (P < 0.001). A higher baseline LS value was the single independent predictor of a significant decline in LS value on multivariate analysis (P<0.001; hazard ratio [HR], 1.155; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.073-1.243). Using an optimal cutoff baseline LS value of 11.5 kPa (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.781; 95% CI, 0.698-0.863, P < 0.001; sensitivity 75.6%; specificity, 62.8%), patients with baseline LS values of ≥11.5 kPa had a greater probability of experiencing a significant decline in the LS value than those with baseline LS values of <11.5 kPa (P < 0.001; HR, 5.240; 95% CI, 2.340-11.732).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CHB, LS values were decreased significantly after a 3-year ETV treatment. A higher baseline LS value was the single independent predictor of a significant decline in the LS value.

Current developments in nucleoside/nucleotide analogues for hepatitis B

There had been remarkable development in nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) and evolution in treatment strategies in last 15 years. Currently, there are five NAs available for chronic hepatitis B treatment, namely lamivudine, telbivudine and entecavir (nucleoside analogues), adefovir dipivoxil and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (nucleotide analogues). The advantages of relatively infrequent side effects and easy administration per oral make NAs popular treatment options. The major drawback of earlier generation NAs is the risk of emergence of drug resistance. Current international guidelines recommend the use of more potent agents with high genetic barriers to resistance including entecavir and tenofovir as first line chronic hepatitis B treatment. However, there is no consensus regarding the subsequent treatment regimens in patients with suboptimal responses to NAs. De novo combination therapy of two NAs, response-guided therapy and roadmap concept in NAs with subsequent switch or add-on therapy can also potentially improve treatment efficacy and avoid resistance.

Non-invasive prediction of development of hepatocellular carcinoma using transient elastography in patients with chronic liver disease

Prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease is determined by the extent and progression of liver fibrosis, which may ultimately lead to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Liver biopsy (LB) is regarded as the gold standard to estimate the extent of liver fibrosis. However, because LB has several limitations, the foremost being its invasiveness, several non-invasive methods for assessing liver fibrosis have been proposed. Of these, transient elastography (TE) provides an accurate representation of the extent of liver fibrosis. Furthermore, recent studies have focused on the usefulness of TE for assessing the risk of HCC development and HCC recurrence after curative treatment, and developed novel models to calculate the risk of HCC development based on TE findings. These issues are discussed in this expert review.

Late HDV RNA relapse after peginterferon alpha-based therapy of chronic hepatitis delta

Interferon alpha is the only treatment option for hepatitis delta virus (HDV). Trials investigating the efficacy of pegylated interferon alpha (PEG-IFNa) showed HDV RNA negativity rates of 25-30% 24 weeks after therapy. However, the clinical and virological long-term outcome of HDV-infected patients treated with PEG-IFNa is unknown. We performed a retrospective-prospective follow-up of 77 patients treated for 48 weeks with either PEG-alfa-2a and adefovir (ADV) or either drug alone in the Hep-Net-International-Delta-Hepatitis-Intervention-Study 1 (HIDIT-1) trial. Long-term follow-up data were available for 58 out of 77 patients (75%) with a median time of follow-up of 4.5 (0.5-5.5) years and a median 3 visits per patient. Patients treated with ADV alone received retreatment with PEG-IFNa (48% versus 19%; P = 0.02) more often. Hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) became negative in six PEG-IFNa-treated patients until the end of long-term follow-up (10%). Sixteen patients tested HDV RNA-negative 6 months after PEG-IFNa treatment who were entered in the long-term follow-up study. Out of these, nine individuals tested HDV RNA-positive at least once during further long-term follow-up, with seven patients being HDV RNA-positive at the most recent visit. Clinical endpoints (liver-related death, liver transplantation, hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma) were observed in three PEG-IFNa-treated (8%) and three ADV-treated (14%) patients during posttreatment long-term follow-up with an overall annual event rate of 2.5% (4.9% in cirrhosis). Sequencing confirmed the reappearance of pretreatment virus strains in all cases.

CONCLUSION

Late HDV RNA relapses may occur after PEG-IFNa therapy of hepatitis delta and thus the term sustained virological response should be avoided in HDV infection. The annual posttreatment rate of clinical events in hepatitis delta patients eligible for PEG-IFNa therapy is about 2.5% and 4.9% in patients with cirrhosis.

Mortality, liver transplantation, and hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir vs lamivudine

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about whether the antiviral agent entecavir is more effective than a less potent drug, lamivudine, in reducing the risk of death and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 5374 consecutive adult patients with chronic hepatitis B, treated with entecavir (n = 2000) or lamivudine (n = 3374), at a tertiary referral hospital in Seoul, Korea, from November 1, 1999, through December 31, 2011. Data were collected from patients for up to 6 years and analyzed by a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for the entire cohort and for propensity score-matched cohorts.

RESULTS

During the study period, 302 patients (5.6%) died, 169 (3.1%) received a liver transplant, and 525 (9.8%) developed HCC. Multivariable analyses showed that compared with lamivudine, entecavir therapy was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38-0.64), but a similar risk of HCC (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.87-1.34). In the 1792 overall propensity-matched pairs, entecavir again was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or transplantation (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.37-0.64) and a similar risk of HCC (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.80-1.27). Entecavir also reduced the risk of death or transplantation, compared with lamivudine, in 860 pairs of patients with cirrhosis (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.31-0.57) but there were no differences in risk for HCC (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.78-1.28). However, entecavir and lamivudine did not have significantly different effects on clinical outcome in 878 pairs of patients without cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In a retrospective study of 5374 patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection, entecavir therapy was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or transplantation than lamivudine. However, the drugs did not have different effects on HCC risk.

Risk calculators for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients affected with chronic hepatitis B in Asia

Risk calculators are widely used in many clinical fields, and integrate several important risk factors through the conversion of a risk function into a single measure of risk. Several studies have been carried out to create risk calculators for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Most of them were hospital-based, with limited sample sizes and insufficient external validation. These study groups collaborated to establish the REACH-B risk score, which incorporated five clinical variables to predict HCC risk. This risk score was then validated in international clinical cohorts. Evidence suggests that quantitative serum HBsAg level provides additional predictability of HCC, especially in patients with low levels of hepatitis B virus DNA. This novel marker was incorporated into a risk calculator and was internally validated. This tool will hopefully be externally validated in the near future. Risk calculators can be used to support clinical practice, and to establish preventive measures; several “off-label” extension usages have also been implemented. Albeit beneficial, several precautions and discussions should be noted in using the risk calculators. The future development of risk calculators for CHB patients can be extended by applying them to additional CHB-related outcomes, and by incorporating emerging risk parameters.

Coincidental metabolic syndrome increases the risk of liver fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis B--a prospective cohort study with paired transient elastography examinations

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome is a known risk factor of cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

AIM

To investigate the effects of coincidental metabolic syndrome on liver fibrosis progression in treatment-naïve CHB patients.

METHODS

A total of 1466 CHB patients underwent liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography in 2006-2008; 663 patients remained treatment-naïve and had second LSM in 2010-2012. Liver fibrosis progression was defined as an increase in LSM ≥30% at the second assessment. The impact of coincidental metabolic syndrome and its factors on liver fibrosis progression were evaluated after adjustment for viral load and hepatitis activity.

RESULTS

At baseline, the mean age was 43 ± 12 years, 55% were males, serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was 44 ± 40 IU/L, HBV DNA was 4.0 ± 2.0 log IU/mL and LSM was 6.3 ± 3.6 kPa. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed in 80 (12%) and 142 (21%) patients at baseline and follow-up visit, respectively; 84 (13%) and 22 (3%) patients had coincidental and resolved metabolic syndrome respectively. After an interval of 44 ± 7 months, 107 (16%) patients developed liver fibrosis progression. Coincidental metabolic syndrome [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-3.5, P = 0.015], central obesity (aOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.0-4.1, P = 0.05) and low level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.7, P = 0.04) were associated with liver fibrosis progression independent of change in viral load and ALT level. The effects of coincidental metabolic syndrome were most apparent in the immune-tolerant phase.

CONCLUSION

Coincidental metabolic syndrome increases the risk of liver fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis B infection, independent of viral load and hepatitis activity.

On-treatment alpha-fetoprotein is a specific tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving entecavir

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most widely used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance, which is criticized as neither sensitive nor specific in active hepatitis and liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to determine the performance of AFP as a tumor marker for HCC in entecavir-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This was a retrospective-prospective cohort study of 1,531 entecavir-treated patients under regular HCC surveillance with AFP and ultrasonography. Mean age was 52 ± 12 years; 1,099 (72%) patients were male and 332 (21.7%) had clinical evidence of cirrhosis. At a mean follow-up of 51 ± 13 months, 57 (2.9%) patients developed HCC (median size: 3.3 cm). AFP fluctuated with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and peaked at the time of starting entecavir, then gradually decreased after. AFP started to increase 6 months before the diagnosis of HCC. The receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of AFP was highest at the time of HCC diagnosis (0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.73-0.98) and remained satisfactory at 3 (0.82; 95% CI: 0.73-0.91) and 6 months (0.79; 95% CI: 0.69-0.89) before the diagnosis. Using the conventional AFP cut-off (20 μg/L) at month 0, the sensitivity and specificity to diagnose HCC were 38.6% and 98.9%, respectively. Adopting the lower cut-off value (6 μg/L) of AFP level at month 0, sensitivity was increased to 80.7%, whereas specificity was decreased to 80.4%.

CONCLUSION

On-treatment AFP is a specific tumor marker for HCC in CHB patients receiving entecavir therapy. Adopting a lower cut-off value of AFP level at 6 μg/L would significantly increase the sensitivity for HCC detection.

Liver stiffness-based optimization of hepatocellular carcinoma risk score in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

CU-HCC score is accurate to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. However, diagnosis of cirrhosis may be incorrect based on ultrasonography, leading to some errors in HCC prediction. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of LSM-HCC score, refined from CU-HCC score with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography to predict HCC.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study of 1555 consecutive CHB patients referred for transient elastography examination; 1035 and 520 patients randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts, respectively. Clinical cirrhosis of CU-HCC score was substituted by LSM and analyzed with multivariable Cox regression analysis with other parameters.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 69 months, 38 patients (3.7%) in the training cohort and 17 patients (3.4%) in the validation cohort developed HCC. A new LSM-HCC score composed of LSM, age, serum albumin and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels were derived, which ranges from 0 to 30. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of LSM-HCC score were higher than those of CU-HCC score (0.83-0.89 vs. 0.75-0.81). By applying the cutoff value of 11, the score excluded future HCC with high negative predictive value (99.4%-100%) at 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

LSM-HCC score constructed from LSM, age, serum albumin and HBV DNA level is accurate to predict HCC in CHB patients.

Impact of HBV therapy on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent, long term complication of chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) with an annual incidence ranging from 2 to 5%, often independent from the histological stage of underlying liver disease and serological status. Nevertheless, HCC is more often seen in older patients in whom HBV has been asserting its pro-oncogenic properties through both indirect and direct mechanisms. In Europe, HBV-related HCC is associated with cirrhosis in most patients, whereas this is not true in Asia and Africa where the tumour is also common among carriers with mild hepatic fibrosis, probably because of the coexistence of environmental co-carcinogens (aflatoxin) and long standing infection that is often acquired perinatally. Since hepatitis B-related carcinogenesis develops independently of the onset of cirrhosis, antiviral treatments such as nucleo(t)side analogues (NAs) that may result in the regression of fibrosis, prevent clinical decompensation and variceal bleeding, often fail to prevent HCC. Studies enrolling patients treated with lamivudine or rescued with adefovir, i.e. regimens characterized by limited potency and a low to moderate genetic barrier, have clearly been shown to help prevent HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis but not in those with cirrhosis, and in general not in patients that cannot achieve a sustained virological response. More potent anti-HBV drugs, such as entecavir and tenofovir, have been shown to improve the prevention of HCC in responders with cirrhosis, although HCC may still occur even in low risk patients. To attenuate HCC related outcomes, HBV replication must permanently be suppressed and HCC surveillance by abdominal ultrasound should be maintained even in responder patients.

Non-invasive algorithm of enhanced liver fibrosis and liver stiffness measurement with transient elastography for advanced liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF; ADVIA Centaur, Siemens Healthcare Diagnostics, Tarrytown, NY, USA) in assessing liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is to be determined.

AIM

To derive and validate a combined ELF-liver stiffness measurement (LSM) algorithm to predict advanced fibrosis in CHB patients.

METHODS

Using the data of a previously reported cohort of 238 CHB patients, an ALT-based LSM algorithm for liver fibrosis was used as a training cohort to evaluate the performance of ELF against liver histology. The best combined ELF-LSM algorithm was then validated in new cohort of 85 CHB patients not previously reported.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, LSM has better performance of diagnosing advanced (≥F3) fibrosis (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC] 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI 0.76-0.91] than ELF (AUROC 0.69, 95% CI 0.63-0.75). The optimal cut-off values of ELF were 8.4 to exclude advanced fibrosis, and 10.8 to confirm advanced fibrosis. In the training cohort, an ELF ≤ 8.4 had a sensitivity of 95% to exclude advanced fibrosis; an ELF > 10.8 had a specificity of 92% to confirm advanced fibrosis. In the combined algorithm, low ELF or low LSM could be used to exclude advanced fibrosis as both of them had high sensitivity (≥90%). To confirm advanced fibrosis, agreement between high ELF and high LSM could improve the negative predictive value specificity (from 65% and 74% to 80%).

CONCLUSIONS

An Enhanced Liver Fibrosis - liver stiffness measurement algorithm could improve the accuracy of prediction of either ELF or LSM alone. Liver biopsy could be correctly avoided in approximately 60% of patients.

Prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic viral hepatitis B and C infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, with the majority of cases associated with persistent infection from hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV). Natural history studies have identified risk factors associated with HCC development among chronic HBV and HCV infection. High-risk infected individuals can now be identified by the usage of risk predictive scores. Vaccination plays a central role in the prevention of HBV-related HCC. Treatment of chronic HBV infection, especially by nucleoside analogue therapy, could also reduce the risk of HBV-related HCC. Concerning HCV infection, besides the advocation of universal precautions to reduce the rate of infection, pegylated interferon and ribavirin could also reduce the risk of HCV-related HCC among those achieving a sustained virologic response. Recently there has been mounting evidence on the role of chemopreventive agents in reducing HBV- and HCV-related HCC. The continued advances in the understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of HCC would hold promise in preventing this highly lethal cancer.

Risk prediction of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of antiviral therapy

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem in Asian-Pacific regions. Antiviral therapy reduces, but does not eliminate the risk of HCC. It would be a heavy financial burden in most low and middle economic countries if all CHB patients received antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance. Thus, there is a need for accurate risk prediction to assist prognostication, decisions on the need for antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance. A few well-established risk factors for HCC, namely advanced age, male gender, high viral load, cirrhosis etc., are the core components of three HCC risk scores: CU-HCC, GAG-HCC and REACH-B scores. These 3 scores were confirmed to be accurate in predicting HCC up to 10 years in treatment-naïve patients. Their validity and applicability have recently been demonstrated in a large cohort of entecavir treatment patients. A decrease in risk scores after antiviral therapy translates to a lower risk of HCC. These findings support the application of HCC risk scores in all CHB patients. Different levels of care and different intensities of HCC surveillance should be offered according to the risk profile of patients. Patients at risk of HCC should undergo regular HCC surveillance, even when they are receiving antiviral treatment.