Evaluation of variable selection methods for random forests and omics data sets

Thresholding Gini variable importance with a single-trained random forest: An empirical Bayes approach

Random forests (RFs) are a widely used modelling tool capable of feature selection via a variable importance measure (VIM), however, a threshold is needed to control for false positives. In the absence of a good understanding of the characteristics of VIMs, many current approaches attempt to select features associated to the response by training multiple RFs to generate statistical power via a permutation null, by employing recursive feature elimination, or through a combination of both. However, for high-dimensional datasets these approaches become computationally infeasible. In this paper, we present RFlocalfdr, a statistical approach, built on the empirical Bayes argument of Efron, for thresholding mean decrease in impurity (MDI) importances. It identifies features significantly associated with the response while controlling the false positive rate. Using synthetic data and real-world data in health, we demonstrate that RFlocalfdr has equivalent accuracy to currently published approaches, while being orders of magnitude faster. We show that RFlocalfdr can successfully threshold a dataset of 106 datapoints, establishing its usability for large-scale datasets, like genomics. Furthermore, RFlocalfdr is compatible with any RF implementation that returns a VIM and counts, making it a versatile feature selection tool that reduces false discoveries.

Histone deacetylase-mediated tumor microenvironment characteristics and synergistic immunotherapy in gastric cancer

Background: Studies have shown that the expression of histone deacetylases (HDACs) is significantly related to the tumor microenvironment (TME) in gastric cancer. However, the expression of a single molecule or several molecules does not accurately reflect the TME characteristics or guide immunotherapy in gastric cancer. Methods: We constructed an HDAC score (HDS) based on the expression level of HDACs. The single-cell transcriptome was used to analyze the underlying factors contributing to differences in immune infiltration between patients with a high and low HDS. In vitro and in vivo experiments validated the strategy of transforming cold tumors into hot tumors to guide immunotherapy. Results: According to the expression characteristics of HDACs, we constructed an HDS model to characterize the TME. We found that patients with a high HDS had stronger immunogenicity and could benefit more from immunotherapy than those with a low score. The AUC value of the HDS combined with the combined positive score (CPS)for predicting the efficacy of immunotherapy was as high as 0.96. By single-cell and paired bulk transcriptome sequencing analysis, we found that the infiltration levels of CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells and NK cells were significantly decreased in the low HDS group, which may be induced by MYH11+ fibroblasts, CD234+ endothelial cells and CCL17+ pDCs via the MIF signaling pathway. Inhibition of the MIF signaling pathway was confirmed to potentially enhance immune infiltration. In addition, our analysis revealed that GPX4 inhibitors might be effective for patients with a low HDS. GPX4 knockout significantly inhibited PD-L1 expression and promoted the infiltration and activation of CD8+ T cells. Conclusion: We constructed an HDS model based on the HDAC expression characteristics of gastric cancer. This model was used to evaluate TME characteristics and predict immunotherapy efficacy. Inhibition of the MIF signaling pathway in the TME and GPX4 expression in tumor cells may be an important strategy for cold tumor synergistic immunotherapy for gastric cancer.

A Machine Learning-Based Analytic Pipeline Applied to Clinical and Serum IgG Immunoproteome Data To Predict Chlamydia trachomatis Genital Tract Ascension and Incident Infection in Women

We developed a reusable and open-source machine learning (ML) pipeline that can provide an analytical framework for rigorous biomarker discovery. We implemented the ML pipeline to determine the predictive potential of clinical and immunoproteome antibody data for outcomes associated with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection collected from 222 cis-gender females with high Ct exposure. We compared the predictive performance of 4 ML algorithms (naive Bayes, random forest, extreme gradient boosting with linear booster [xgbLinear], and k-nearest neighbors [KNN]), screened from 215 ML methods, in combination with two different feature selection strategies, Boruta and recursive feature elimination. Recursive feature elimination performed better than Boruta in this study. In prediction of Ct ascending infection, naive Bayes yielded a slightly higher median value of are under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.57 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54 to 0.59) than other methods and provided biological interpretability. For prediction of incident infection among women uninfected at enrollment, KNN performed slightly better than other algorithms, with a median AUROC of 0.61 (95% CI, 0.49 to 0.70). In contrast, xgbLinear and random forest had higher predictive performances, with median AUROC of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.67) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.64), respectively, for women infected at enrollment. Our findings suggest that clinical factors and serum anti-Ct protein IgGs are inadequate biomarkers for ascension or incident Ct infection. Nevertheless, our analysis highlights the utility of a pipeline that searches for biomarkers and evaluates prediction performance and interpretability. IMPORTANCE Biomarker discovery to aid early diagnosis and treatment using machine learning (ML) approaches is a rapidly developing area in host-microbe studies. However, lack of reproducibility and interpretability of ML-driven biomarker analysis hinders selection of robust biomarkers that can be applied in clinical practice. We thus developed a rigorous ML analytical framework and provide recommendations for enhancing reproducibility of biomarkers. We emphasize the importance of robustness in selection of ML methods, evaluation of performance, and interpretability of biomarkers. Our ML pipeline is reusable and open-source and can be used not only to identify host-pathogen interaction biomarkers but also in microbiome studies and ecological and environmental microbiology research.

Prediction of Feed Efficiency and Performance-Based Traits in Fish via Integration of Multiple Omics and Clinical Covariates

Fish aquaculture is a rapidly expanding global industry, set to support growing demands for sources of marine protein. Enhancing feed efficiency (FE) in farmed fish is required to reduce production costs and improve sector sustainability. Recognising that organisms are complex systems whose emerging phenotypes are the product of multiple interacting molecular processes, systems-based approaches are expected to deliver new biological insights into FE and growth performance. Here, we establish 14 diverse layers of multi-omics and clinical covariates to assess their capacities to predict FE and associated performance traits in a fish model (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and uncover the influential variables. Inter-omic relatedness between the different layers revealed several significant concordances, particularly between datasets originating from similar material/tissue and between blood indicators and some of the proteomic (liver), metabolomic (liver), and microbiomic layers. Single- and multi-layer random forest (RF) regression models showed that integration of all data layers provide greater FE prediction power than any single-layer model alone. Although FE was among the most challenging of the traits we attempted to predict, the mean accuracy of 40 different FE models in terms of root-mean square errors normalized to percentage was 30.4%, supporting RF as a feature selection tool and approach for complex trait prediction. Major contributions to the integrated FE models were derived from layers of proteomic and metabolomic data, with substantial influence also provided by the lipid composition layer. A correlation matrix of the top 27 variables in the models highlighted FE trait-associations with faecal bacteria (Serratia spp.), palmitic and nervonic acid moieties in whole body lipids, levels of free glycerol in muscle, and N-acetylglutamic acid content in liver. In summary, we identified subsets of molecular characteristics for the assessment of commercially relevant performance-based metrics in farmed Chinook salmon.

Identifying potential circulating miRNA biomarkers for the diagnosis and prediction of ovarian cancer using machine-learning approach: application of Boruta

Introduction

In gynecologic oncology, ovarian cancer is a great clinical challenge. Because of the lack of typical symptoms and effective biomarkers for noninvasive screening, most patients develop advanced-stage ovarian cancer by the time of diagnosis. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are a type of non-coding RNA molecule that has been linked to human cancers. Specifying diagnostic biomarkers to determine non-cancer and cancer samples is difficult.

Methods

By using Boruta, a novel random forest-based feature selection in the machine-learning techniques, we aimed to identify biomarkers associated with ovarian cancer using cancerous and non-cancer samples from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database: GSE106817. In this study, we used two independent GEO data sets as external validation, including GSE113486 and GSE113740. We utilized five state-of-the-art machine-learning algorithms for classification: logistic regression, random forest, decision trees, artificial neural networks, and XGBoost.

Results

Four models discovered in GSE113486 had an AUC of 100%, three in GSE113740 with AUC of over 94%, and four in GSE113486 with AUC of over 94%. We identified 10 miRNAs to distinguish ovarian cancer cases from normal controls: hsa-miR-1290, hsa-miR-1233-5p, hsa-miR-1914-5p, hsa-miR-1469, hsa-miR-4675, hsa-miR-1228-5p, hsa-miR-3184-5p, hsa-miR-6784-5p, hsa-miR-6800-5p, and hsa-miR-5100. Our findings suggest that miRNAs could be used as possible biomarkers for ovarian cancer screening, for possible intervention.

Identification of radiomic biomarkers in a set of four skeletal muscle groups on Dixon MRI of the NAKO MR study

In this work, we propose a processing pipeline for the extraction and identification of meaningful radiomics biomarkers in skeletal muscle tissue as displayed using Dixon-weighted MRI. Diverse and robust radiomics features can be identified that may be of aid in the accurate quantification e.g. varying degrees of sarcopenia in respective muscles of large cohorts. As such, the approach comprises the texture feature extraction from raw data based on well established approaches, such as a nnU-Net neural network and the Pyradiomics toolbox, a subsequent selection according to adequate conditions for the muscle tissue of the general population, and an importance-based ranking to further narrow the amount of meaningful features with respect to auxiliary targets. The performance was investigated with respect to the included auxiliary targets, namely age, body mass index (BMI), and fat fraction (FF). Four skeletal muscles with different fiber architecture were included: the mm. glutaei, m. psoas, as well as the extensors and adductors of the thigh. The selection allowed for a reduction from 1015 available texture features to 65 for age, 53 for BMI, and 36 for FF from the available fat/water contrast images considering all muscles jointly. Further, the dependence of the importance rankings calculated for the auxiliary targets on validation sets (in a cross-validation scheme) was investigated by boxplots. In addition, significant differences between subgroups of respective auxiliary targets as well as between both sexes were shown to be present within the ten lowest ranked features by means of Kruskal-Wallis H-tests and Mann-Whitney U-tests. The prediction performance for the selected features and the ranking scheme were verified on validation sets by a random forest based multi-class classification, with strong area under the curve (AUC) values of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) of 73.03 ± 0.70 % and 73.63 ± 0.70 % for the water and fat images in age, 80.68 ± 0.30 % and 88.03 ± 0.89 % in BMI, as well as 98.36 ± 0.03 % and 98.52 ± 0.09 % in FF.

Radiomics for the Detection of Active Sacroiliitis Using MR Imaging

Detecting active inflammatory sacroiliitis at an early stage is vital for prescribing medications that can modulate disease progression and significantly delay or prevent debilitating forms of axial spondyloarthropathy. Conventional radiography and computed tomography offer limited sensitivity in detecting acute inflammatory findings as these methods primarily identify chronic structural lesions. Conversely, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is the preferred technique for detecting bone marrow edema, although it is a complex process requiring extensive expertise. Additionally, ascertaining the origin of lesions can be challenging, even for experienced medical professionals. Machine learning (ML) has showcased its proficiency in various fields by uncovering patterns that are not easily perceived from multi-dimensional datasets derived from medical imaging. The aim of this study is to develop a radiomic signature to aid clinicians in diagnosing active sacroiliitis. A total of 354 sacroiliac joints were segmented from axial fluid-sensitive MRI images, and their radiomic features were extracted. After selecting the most informative features, a number of ML algorithms were utilized to identify the optimal method for detecting active sacroiliitis, leading to the selection of an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model that accomplished an Area Under the Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.71, thus further showcasing the potential of radiomics in the field.

Exploitation of surrogate variables in random forests for unbiased analysis of mutual impact and importance of features

MOTIVATION

Random forest is a popular machine learning approach for the analysis of high-dimensional data because it is flexible and provides variable importance measures for the selection of relevant features. However, the complex relationships between the features are usually not considered for the selection and thus also neglected for the characterization of the analysed samples.

RESULTS

Here we propose two novel approaches that focus on the mutual impact of features in random forests. Mutual forest impact (MFI) is a relation parameter that evaluates the mutual association of the features to the outcome and, hence, goes beyond the analysis of correlation coefficients. Mutual impurity reduction (MIR) is an importance measure that combines this relation parameter with the importance of the individual features. MIR and MFI are implemented together with testing procedures that generate P-values for the selection of related and important features. Applications to one experimental and various simulated datasets and the comparison to other methods for feature selection and relation analysis show that MFI and MIR are very promising to shed light on the complex relationships between features and outcome. In addition, they are not affected by common biases, e.g. that features with many possible splits or high minor allele frequencies are preferred.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The approaches are implemented in Version 0.3.3 of the R package RFSurrogates that is available at github.com/AGSeifert/RFSurrogates and the data are available at doi.org/10.25592/uhhfdm.12620.

Clinical Risk Scores to Predict Nonsusceptibility to Trimethoprim-Sulfamethoxazole, Fluoroquinolone, Nitrofurantoin, and Third-Generation Cephalosporin Among Adult Outpatient Episodes of Complicated Urinary Tract Infection

Background

Clinical risk scores were developed to estimate the risk of adult outpatients having a complicated urinary tract infection (cUTI) that was nonsusceptible to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX), fluoroquinolone, nitrofurantoin, or third-generation cephalosporin (3-GC) based on variables available on clinical presentation.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study (1 December 2017-31 December 2020) was performed among adult members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California with an outpatient cUTI. Separate risk scores were developed for TMP-SMX, fluoroquinolone, nitrofurantoin, and 3-GC. The models were translated into risk scores to quantify the likelihood of nonsusceptibility based on the presence of final model covariates in a given cUTI outpatient.

Results

A total of 30 450 cUTIs (26 326 patients) met the study criteria. Rates of nonsusceptibility to TMP-SMX, fluoroquinolone, nitrofurantoin, and 3-GC were 37%, 20%, 27%, and 24%, respectively. Receipt of prior antibiotics was the most important predictor across all models. The risk of nonsusceptibility in the TMP-SMX model exceeded 20% in the absence of any risk factors, suggesting that empiric use of TMP-SMX may not be advisable. For fluoroquinolone, nitrofurantoin, and 3-GC, clinical risk scores of 10, 7, and 11 predicted a ≥20% estimated probability of nonsusceptibility in the models that included cumulative number of prior antibiotics at model entry. This finding suggests that caution should be used when considering these agents empirically in patients who have several risk factors present in a given model at presentation.

Conclusions

We developed high-performing parsimonious risk scores to facilitate empiric treatment selection for adult outpatients with cUTIs in the critical period between infection presentation and availability of susceptibility results.

Exploring the Synergistic Potential of Radiomics and Laboratory Biomarkers for Enhanced Identification of Vulnerable COVID-19 Patients

BACKGROUND

Severe courses and high hospitalization rates were ubiquitous during the first pandemic SARS-CoV-2 waves. Thus, we aimed to examine whether integrative diagnostics may aid in identifying vulnerable patients using crucial data and materials obtained from COVID-19 patients hospitalized between 2020 and 2021 (n = 52). Accordingly, we investigated the potential of laboratory biomarkers, specifically the dynamic cell decay marker cell-free DNA and radiomics features extracted from chest CT.

METHODS

Separate forward and backward feature selection was conducted for linear regression with the Intensive-Care-Unit (ICU) period as the initial target. Three-fold cross-validation was performed, and collinear parameters were reduced. The model was adapted to a logistic regression approach and verified in a validation naïve subset to avoid overfitting.

RESULTS

The adapted integrated model classifying patients into "ICU/no ICU demand" comprises six radiomics and seven laboratory biomarkers. The models' accuracy was 0.54 for radiomics, 0.47 for cfDNA, 0.74 for routine laboratory, and 0.87 for the combined model with an AUC of 0.91.

CONCLUSION

The combined model performed superior to the individual models. Thus, integrating radiomics and laboratory data shows synergistic potential to aid clinic decision-making in COVID-19 patients. Under the need for evaluation in larger cohorts, including patients with other SARS-CoV-2 variants, the identified parameters might contribute to the triage of COVID-19 patients.

Bayesian risk prediction model for colorectal cancer mortality through integration of clinicopathologic and genomic data

Routine tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging of colorectal cancer is imperfect in predicting survival due to tumor pathobiological heterogeneity and imprecise assessment of tumor spread. We leveraged Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), a statistical learning technique, to comprehensively analyze patient-specific tumor characteristics for the improvement of prognostic prediction. Of 75 clinicopathologic, immune, microbial, and genomic variables in 815 stage II-III patients within two U.S.-wide prospective cohort studies, the BART risk model identified seven stable survival predictors. Risk stratifications (low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk) based on model-predicted survival were statistically significant (hazard ratios 0.19-0.45, vs. higher risk; P < 0.0001) and could be externally validated using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data (P = 0.0004). BART demonstrated model flexibility, interpretability, and comparable or superior performance to other machine-learning models. Integrated bioinformatic analyses using BART with tumor-specific factors can robustly stratify colorectal cancer patients into prognostic groups and be readily applied to clinical oncology practice.

Characterization of stemness features and construction of a stemness subtype classifier to predict survival and treatment responses in lung squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Cancer stemness has been proven to affect tumorigenesis, metastasis, and drug resistance in various cancers, including lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC). We intended to develop a clinically applicable stemness subtype classifier that could assist physicians in predicting patient prognosis and treatment response.

METHODS

This study collected RNA-seq data from TCGA and GEO databases to calculate transcriptional stemness indices (mRNAsi) using the one-class logistic regression machine learning algorithm. Unsupervised consensus clustering was conducted to identify a stemness-based classification. Immune infiltration analysis (ESTIMATE and ssGSEA algorithms) methods were used to investigate the immune infiltration status of different subtypes. Tumor Immune Dysfunction and Exclusion (TIDE) and Immunophenotype Score (IPS) were used to evaluate the immunotherapy response. The pRRophetic algorithm was used to estimate the efficiency of chemotherapeutic and targeted agents. Two machine learning algorithms (LASSO and RF) and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to construct a novel stemness-related classifier.

RESULTS

We observed that patients in the high-mRNAsi group had a better prognosis than those in the low-mRNAsi group. Next, we identified 190 stemness-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs) that could categorize LUSC patients into two stemness subtypes. Patients in the stemness subtype B group with higher mRNAsi scores exhibited better overall survival (OS) than those in the stemness subtype A group. Immunotherapy prediction demonstrated that stemness subtype A has a better response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Furthermore, the drug response prediction indicated that stemness subtype A had a better response to chemotherapy but was more resistant to epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs). Finally, we constructed a nine-gene-based classifier to predict patients' stemness subtype and validated it in independent GEO validation sets. The expression levels of these genes were also validated in clinical tumor specimens.

CONCLUSION

The stemness-related classifier could serve as a potential prognostic and treatment predictor and assist physicians in selecting effective treatment strategies for patients with LUSC in clinical practice.

Prediction of Future Caries in 1-Year-Old Children via the Salivary Microbiome

Dental caries is the most common chronic disease in children that causes negative effects on their health, development, and well-being. Early preventive interventions are key to reduce early childhood caries prevalence. An efficient strategy is to provide risk-based targeted prevention; however, this requires an accurate caries risk predictor, which is still lacking for infants before caries onset. We aimed to develop a caries prediction model based on the salivary microbiome of caries-free 1-y-old children. Using a nested case-control design within a prospective cohort study, we selected 30 children based on their caries status at 1-y follow-up (at 2 y old): 10 children who remained caries-free, 10 who developed noncavitated caries, and 10 who developed cavitated caries. Saliva samples collected at baseline before caries onset were analyzed through 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The results of β diversity analysis showed a significant difference in salivary microbiome composition between children who remained caries-free and those who developed cavitated caries at 2 y old (analysis of similarities, Benjamini-Hochberg corrected, P = 0.042). The relative abundance of Prevotella nanceiensis, Leptotrichia sp. HMT 215, Prevotella melaninogenica, and Campylobacter concisus in children who remained caries-free was significantly higher than in children who developed cavitated caries (Wilcoxon rank sum test, P = 0.024, 0.040, 0.049, and 0.049, respectively). These taxa were also identified as biomarkers for children who remained caries-free (linear discriminant analysis effect size, linear discriminant analysis score = 3.69, 3.74, 3.53, and 3.46). A machine learning model based on these 4 species distinguished between 1-y-old children who did and did not develop cavitated caries at 2 y old, with an accuracy of 80%, sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 80% (area under the curve, 0.8; 95% CI, 44.4 to 97.5). Our findings suggest that these salivary microbial biomarkers could assist in predicting future caries in caries-free 1-y-old children and, upon validation, are promising for development into an adjunctive tool for caries risk prediction for prevention and monitoring.

A secure future? Human urban and agricultural land use benefits a flightless island-endemic rail despite climate change

Identifying environmental characteristics that limit species' distributions is important for contemporary conservation and inferring responses to future environmental change. The Tasmanian native hen is an island endemic flightless rail and a survivor of a prehistoric extirpation event. Little is known about the regional-scale environmental characteristics influencing the distribution of native hens, or how their future distribution might be impacted by environmental shifts (e.g. climate change). Using a combination of local fieldwork and species distribution modelling, we assess environmental factors shaping the contemporary distribution of the native hen, and project future distribution changes under predicted climate change. We find 37% of Tasmania is currently suitable for the native hens, owing to low summer precipitation, low elevation, human-modified vegetation and urban areas. Moreover, in unsuitable regions, urban areas can create 'oases' of habitat, able to support populations with high breeding activity by providing resources and buffering against environmental constraints. Under climate change predictions, native hens were predicted to lose only 5% of their occupied range by 2055. We conclude that the species is resilient to climate change and benefits overall from anthropogenic landscape modifications. As such, this constitutes a rare example of a flightless rail to have adapted to human activity.

Characteristics of peripheral blood cells are independently related to major adverse cardiovascular events after carotid endarterectomy

Background and aims

Patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA) still have a residual risk of 13% of developing a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) within 3 years. Inflammatory processes leading up to MACE are not fully understood. Therefore, we examined blood cell characteristics (BCCs), possibly reflecting inflammatory processes, in relation to MACE to identify BCCs that may contribute to an increased risk.

Methods

We analyzed 75 pretreatment BCCs from the Sapphire analyzer, and clinical data from the Athero-Express biobank in relation to MACE after CEA using Random Survival Forests, and a Generalized Additive Survival Model. To understand biological mechanisms, we related the identified variables to intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH).

Results

Of 783 patients, 97 (12%) developed MACE within 3 years after CEA. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (HR 1.23 [1.02, 1.68], p = 0.022), CV of lymphocyte size (LACV) (HR 0.78 [0.63, 0.99], p = 0.043), neutrophil complexity of the intracellular structure (NIMN) (HR 0.80 [0.64, 0.98], p = 0.033), mean neutrophil size (NAMN) (HR 0.67 [0.55, 0.83], p < 0.001), mean corpuscular volume (MCV) (HR 1.35 [1.09, 1.66], p = 0.005), eGFR (HR 0.65 [0.52, 0.80], p < 0.001); and HDL-cholesterol (HR 0.62 [0.45, 0.85], p = 0.003) were related to MACE. NAMN was related to IPH (OR 0.83 [0.71-0.98], p = 0.02).

Conclusions

This is the first study to present a higher RDW and MCV and lower LACV, NIMN and NAMN as biomarkers reflecting inflammatory processes that may contribute to an increased risk of MACE after CEA.

Prevalence and trend of atrial fibrillation and its associated risk factors among the population from nationwide health check-up centers in China, 2012-2017

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia, which poses huge disease burdens in China. A study was conducted to systematically analyze the recent prevalence trend of AF and age-related disparities in AF risk among the nationwide healthy check-up population.

Method

We conducted a nationwide cross-sectional study involving 3,049,178 individuals ≥35 years from health check-up centers to explore the prevalence and trend of AF by age, sex, and region from 2012 to 2017. Additionally, we analyzed risk factors associated with AF among the overall population and different age groups via the Boruta algorithm, the LASSO regression, and the Logistic regression.

Result

The age-, sex-. and regional-standardized prevalence of AF kept stable between 0.4%-0.45% among national physical examination individuals from 2012 to 2017. However, the prevalence of AF showed an undesirable upward trend in the 35-44-year age group (annual percentage changes (APC): 15.16 [95%CI: 6.42,24.62]). With increasing age, the risk of AF associated with the overweight or obesity gradually exceeds that associated with diabetes and hypertension. In addition to traditional leading risk factors such as age≥65 and coronary heart disease, elevated uric acid and impaired renal function were tightly correlated with AF in the population.

Conclusion

The significant rise in the prevalence of AF in the 35-44 age group reminds us that in addition to the elderly (the high-risk group), younger people seem to be in more urgent need of attention. Age-related disparities in AF risk also exist. This updated information may provide references for the national prevention and control of AF.

Plasma Lipidomics Profiles Highlight the Associations of the Dual Antioxidant/Pro-oxidant Molecules Sphingomyelin and Phosphatidylcholine with Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Patients with Type 1 Diabetes

Here, we report on our study of plasma lipidomics profiles of patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) and explore potential associations. One hundred and seven patients with T1DM were consecutively recruited. Ultrasound imaging of peripheral arteries was performed using a high image resolution B-mode ultrasound system. Untargeted lipidomics analysis was performed using UHPLC coupled to qTOF/MS. The associations were evaluated using machine learning algorithms. SM(32:2) and ether lipid species (PC(O-30:1)/PC(P-30:0)) were significantly and positively associated with subclinical atherosclerosis (SA). This association was further confirmed in patients with overweight/obesity (specifically with SM(40:2)). A negative association between SA and lysophosphatidylcholine species was found among lean subjects. Phosphatidylcholines (PC(40:6) and PC(36:6)) and cholesterol esters (ChoE(20:5)) were associated positively with intima-media thickness both in subjects with and without overweight/obesity. In summary, the plasma antioxidant molecules SM and PC differed according to the presence of SA and/or overweight status in patients with T1DM. This is the first study showing the associations in T1DM, and the findings may be useful in the targeting of a personalized approach aimed at preventing cardiovascular disease in these patients.

Explainable ensemble machine learning model for prediction of 28-day mortality risk in patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury

Background

Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (S-AKI) is a major contributor to mortality in intensive care units (ICU). Early prediction of mortality risk is crucial to enhance prognosis and optimize clinical decisions. This study aims to develop a 28-day mortality risk prediction model for S-AKI utilizing an explainable ensemble machine learning (ML) algorithm.

Methods

This study utilized data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV 2.0) database to gather information on patients with S-AKI. Univariate regression, correlation analysis and Boruta were combined for feature selection. To construct the four ML models, hyperparameters were tuned via random search and five-fold cross-validation. To evaluate the performance of all models, ROC, K-S, and LIFT curves were used. The discrimination of ML models and traditional scoring systems was compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Additionally, the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was utilized to interpret the ML model and identify essential variables. To investigate the relationship between the top nine continuous variables and the risk of 28-day mortality. COX regression-restricted cubic splines were utilized while controlling for age and comorbidities.

Results

The study analyzed data from 9,158 patients with S-AKI, dividing them into a 28-day mortality group of 1,940 and a survival group of 7,578. The results showed that XGBoost was the best performing model of the four ML models with AUC of 0.873. All models outperformed APS-III 0.713 and SAPS-II 0.681. The K-S and LIFT curves indicated XGBoost as the most effective predictor for 28-day mortality risk. The model's performance was evaluated using ROCpr curves, calibration curves, accuracy, precision, and F1 scores. SHAP force plots were utilized to interpret and visualize the personalized predictive power of the 28-day mortality risk model. Additionally, COX regression restricted cubic splines revealed an interesting non-linear relationship between the top nine variables and 28-day mortality.

Conclusion

The use of ensemble ML models has shown to be more effective than the LR model and conventional scoring systems in predicting 28-day mortality risk in S-AKI patients. By visualizing the XGBoost model with the best predictive performance, clinicians are able to identify high-risk patients early on and improve prognosis.

Association between the triglyceride glucose index and in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease and coronary artery disease in the intensive care unit

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the association between the triglyceride glucose index (TyG) and the risk of in-hospital and one-year mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease (CAD) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

The data for the study were taken from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV database which contained over 50,000 ICU admissions from 2008 to 2019. The Boruta algorithm was used for feature selection. The study used univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis, Cox regression analysis, and 3-knotted multivariate restricted cubic spline regression to evaluate the association between the TyG index and mortality risk.

RESULTS

After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 639 CKD patients with CAD were included in the study with a median TyG index of 9.1 [8.6,9.5]. The TyG index was nonlinearly associated with in-hospital and one-year mortality risk in populations within the specified range.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that TyG is a predictor of one-year mortality and in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with CAD and CKD and inform the development of new interventions to improve outcomes. In the high-risk group, TyG might be a valuable tool for risk categorization and management. Further research is required to confirm these results and identify the mechanisms behind the link between TyG and mortality in CAD and CKD patients.

A review on longitudinal data analysis with random forest

In longitudinal studies variables are measured repeatedly over time, leading to clustered and correlated observations. If the goal of the study is to develop prediction models, machine learning approaches such as the powerful random forest (RF) are often promising alternatives to standard statistical methods, especially in the context of high-dimensional data. In this paper, we review extensions of the standard RF method for the purpose of longitudinal data analysis. Extension methods are categorized according to the data structures for which they are designed. We consider both univariate and multivariate response longitudinal data and further categorize the repeated measurements according to whether the time effect is relevant. Even though most extensions are proposed for low-dimensional data, some can be applied to high-dimensional data. Information of available software implementations of the reviewed extensions is also given. We conclude with discussions on the limitations of our review and some future research directions.

Interpreting random forest analysis of ecological models to move from prediction to explanation

As modeling tools and approaches become more advanced, ecological models are becoming more complex. Traditional sensitivity analyses can struggle to identify the nonlinearities and interactions emergent from such complexity, especially across broad swaths of parameter space. This limits understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying model behavior. Machine learning approaches are a potential answer to this issue, given their predictive ability when applied to complex large datasets. While perceptions that machine learning is a "black box" linger, we seek to illuminate its interpretive potential in ecological modeling. To do so, we detail our process of applying random forests to complex model dynamics to produce both high predictive accuracy and elucidate the ecological mechanisms driving our predictions. Specifically, we employ an empirically rooted ontogenetically stage-structured consumer-resource simulation model. Using simulation parameters as feature inputs and simulation output as dependent variables in our random forests, we extended feature analyses into a simple graphical analysis from which we reduced model behavior to three core ecological mechanisms. These ecological mechanisms reveal the complex interactions between internal plant demography and trophic allocation driving community dynamics while preserving the predictive accuracy achieved by our random forests.

Microhabitat modeling of the invasive Asian longhorned tick (Haemaphysalis longicornis) in New Jersey, USA

The Asian longhorned tick (Haemaphysalis longicornis) is a vector of multiple arboviral and bacterial pathogens in its native East Asia and expanded distribution in Australasia. This species has both bisexual and parthenogenetic populations that can reach high population densities under favorable conditions. Established populations of parthenogenetic H. longicornis were detected in the eastern United States in 2017 and the possible range of this species at the continental level (North America) based on climatic conditions has been modeled. However, little is known about factors influencing the distribution of H. longicornis at geographic scales relevant to local surveillance and control. To examine the importance of local physiogeographic conditions such as geology, soil characteristics, and land cover on the distribution of H. longicornis we employed ecological niche modeling using three machine learning algorithms - Maxent, Random Forest (RF), and Generalized Boosting Method (GBM) to estimate probability of finding H. longicornis in a particular location in New Jersey (USA), based on environmental predictors. The presence of H. longicornis in New Jersey was positively associated with Piedmont physiogeographic province and two soil types - Alfisols and Inceptisols. Soil hydraulic conductivity was the most important predictor explaining H. longicornis habitat suitability, with more permeable sandy soils with higher hydraulic conductivity being less suitable than clay or loam soils. The models were projected over the state of New Jersey creating a probabilistic map of H. longicornis habitat suitability at a high spatial resolution of 90×90 meters. The model's sensitivity was 87% for locations sampled in 2017-2019 adding to the growing evidence of the importance of soil characteristics to the survival of ticks. For the 2020-2022 dataset the model fit was 57%, suggestive of spillover to less optimal habitats or, alternatively, heterogeneity in soil characteristics at the edges of broad physiographic zones. Further modeling should incorporate abundance and life-stage information as well as detailed characterization of the soil at collection sites. Once critical parameters that drive the survival and abundance of H. longicornis are identified they can be used to guide surveillance and control strategies for this invasive species.

Airtightness evaluation of Canadian dwellings and influencing factors based on measured data and predictive models

The airtightness of buildings has a significant impact on buildings' energy efficiency, maintenance and occupant comfort. The main goal of this study is to provide an evaluation of the air leakage characteristics of dwellings in different regions in Canada. This study evaluated the key influencing factors on airtightness performance based on a large set of measured data (73,450 dwellings located in Canada with 11 measurement parameters for each). Machine learning models based on multivariate regression (MVR) and Random Forest Ensemble (RFE) were developed to predict the air leakage value. The RFE model, which shows better results than MVR, was used to evaluate the effect of the ageing of buildings. Results showed that the maximum increase in air leakage occurs during the first year after construction - approximately 25%, and then 3.7% in the second year, after which the increase rate becomes insignificant and relatively constant - approximately 0.3% per year. The findings from this study can provide significant information for building designs, building performance simulations and strengthening standards and guidelines policies on indoor environmental quality.

Maternal Rumen Bacteriota Shapes the Offspring Rumen Bacteriota, Affecting the Development of Young Ruminants

The maternal rumen microbiota can affect the infantile rumen microbiota and likely offspring growth, and some rumen microbes are heritable and are associated with host traits. However, little is known about the heritable microbes of the maternal rumen microbiota and their role in and effect on the growth of young ruminants. From analyzing the ruminal bacteriota from 128 Hu sheep dams and their 179 offspring lambs, we identified the potential heritable rumen bacteria and developed random forest prediction models to predict birth weight, weaning weight, and preweaning gain of the young ruminants using rumen bacteria as predictors. We showed that the dams tended to shape the bacteriota of the offspring. About 4.0% of the prevalent amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) of rumen bacteria were heritable (h2 > 0.2 and P < 0.05), and together they accounted for 4.8% and 31.5% of the rumen bacteria in relative abundance in the dams and the lambs, respectively. Heritable bacteria classified to Prevotellaceae appeared to play a key role in the rumen niche and contribute to rumen fermentation and the growth performance of lambs. Lamb growth traits could be successfully predicted using some maternal ASVs, and the accuracy of the predictive models was improved when some ASVs from both dams and their offspring were included. IMPORTANCE Using a study design that enabled direct comparison of the rumen microbiota between sheep dams and their lambs, between littermates, and between sheep dams and lambs from other mothers, we identified the heritable subsets of rumen bacteriota in Hu sheep, some of which may play important roles in affecting the growth traits of young lambs. Some maternal rumen bacteria could help predict the growth traits of the young offspring, and they may assist in breeding of and selection for high-performance sheep.

Analysis of Hazelnuts (Corylus avellana L.) Stored for Extended Periods by 1H NMR Spectroscopy Monitoring Storage-Induced Changes in the Polar and Nonpolar Metabolome

Storage is a critical step in the post-harvest processing of hazelnuts, as it can lead to mold, rancidity, and off-flavor. However, there is a lack of analytical methods to detect improper or extended storage. To comprehensively investigate the effects of hazelnut storage, samples were stored under five different conditions for up to 18 months. Subsequently, the polar and nonpolar metabolome were analyzed by ¹H NMR spectroscopy and chemometric approaches for classification as well as variable selection. Increases in hexanoic, octanoic, and nonanoic acid, all products of lipid oxidation and responsible for quality defects, were found across all conditions. Furthermore, the concentration of free long-chain fatty acids increased in samples stored at high temperatures. Harsh short-term storage resulted in an increase in fumaric and lactic acid, glucose, fructose, and choline and a decrease in acetic acid.

Humoral SARS-CoV-2 Immune Response in COVID-19 Recovered Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Individuals Related to Post-COVID-Syndrome

BACKGROUND

The duration of anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibody detectability up to 12 months was examined in individuals after either single convalescence or convalescence and vaccination. Moreover, variables that might influence an anti-RBD/S1 antibody decline and the existence of a post-COVID-syndrome (PCS) were addressed.

METHODS

Forty-nine SARS-CoV-2-qRT-PCR-confirmed participants completed a 12-month examination of anti-SARS-CoV-2-antibody levels and PCS-associated long-term sequelae. Overall, 324 samples were collected. Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was isolated and quantified from EDTA-plasma. As cfDNA is released into the bloodstream from dying cells, it might provide information on organ damage in the late recovery of COIVD-19. Therefore, we evaluated cfDNA concentrations as a biomarker for a PCS. In the context of antibody dynamics, a random forest-based logistic regression with antibody decline as the target was performed and internally validated.

RESULTS

The mean percentage dynamic related to the maximum measured value was 96 (±38)% for anti-RBD/S1 antibodies and 30 (±26)% for anti-N antibodies. Anti-RBD/S1 antibodies decreased in 37%, whereas anti-SARS-CoV-2-anti-N antibodies decreased in 86% of the subjects. Clinical anti-RBD/S1 antibody decline prediction models, including vascular and other diseases, were cross-validated (highest AUC 0.74). Long-term follow-up revealed no significant reduction in PCS prevalence but an increase in cognitive impairment, with no indication for cfDNA as a marker for a PCS.

CONCLUSION

Long-term anti-RBD/S1-antibody positivity was confirmed, and clinical parameters associated with declining titers were presented. A fulminant decrease in anti-SARS-CoV-2-anti-N antibodies was observed (mean change to maximum value 30 (±26)%). Anti-RBD/S1 antibody titers of SARS-CoV-2 recovered subjects boosted with a vaccine exceeded the maximum values measured after single infection by 235 ± 382-fold, with no influence on preexisting PCS. PCS long-term prevalence was 38.6%, with an increase in cognitive impairment compromising the quality of life. Quantified cfDNA measured in the early post-COVID-19 phase might not be an effective marker for PCS identification.

Deep Learning of Dual Plasma Fingerprints for High-Performance Infection Classification

Infection classification is the key for choosing the proper treatment plans. Early determination of the causative agents is critical for disease control. Host responses analysis can detect variform and sensitive host inflammatory responses to ascertain the presence and type of the infection. However, traditional host-derived inflammatory indicators are insufficient for clinical infection classification. Fingerprints-based omic analysis has attracted increasing attention globally for analyzing the complex host systemic immune response. A single type of fingerprints is not applicable for infection classification (area under curve (AUC) of 0.550-0.617). Herein, an infection classification platform based on deep learning of dual plasma fingerprints (DPFs-DL) is developed. The DPFs with high reproducibility (coefficient of variation <15%) are obtained at low sample consumption (550 nL native plasma) using inorganic nanoparticle and organic matrix assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry. A classifier (DPFs-DL) for viral versus bacterial infection discrimination (AUC of 0.775) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) diagnosis (AUC of 0.917) is also built. Furthermore, a metabolic biomarker panel of two differentially regulated metabolites, which may serve as potential biomarkers for COVID-19 management (AUC of 0.677-0.883), is constructed. This study will contribute to the development of precision clinical care for infectious diseases.

Differential proteomic patterns of plasma extracellular vesicles show potential to discriminate β-thalassemia subtypes

The observed specificity of β-thalassemia-subtype phenotypes makes new diagnostic strategies that complement current screening methods necessary to determine each subtype and facilitate therapeutic regimens for different patients. Here, we performed quantitative proteomics of plasma-derived extracellular vesicles (EVs) of β-thalassemia major (TM) patients, β-thalassemia intermedia (TI) patients, and healthy controls to explore subgroup characteristics and potential biomarkers. Plasma quantitative proteomics among the same cohorts were analyzed in parallel to compare the biomarker potential of both specimens. EV proteomics showed significantly more abnormalities in immunity and lipid metabolism in TI and TM, respectively. The differential proteomic patterns of EVs were consistent with but more striking than those of plasma. Notably, we also found EV proteins to have a superior performance for discriminating β-thalassemia subtypes. These findings allowed us to propose a diagnostic model consisting of five proteins in EVs with subtyping potential, demonstrating the ability of plasma-derived EVs for the diagnosis of β-thalassemia patients.

Karst vegetation coverage detection using UAV multispectral vegetation indices and machine learning algorithm

BACKGROUND

Karst vegetation is of great significance for ecological restoration in karst areas. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are mainly related to plant yield which is helpful to understand the status of ecological restoration in karst areas. Recently, karst vegetation surveys have gradually shifted from field surveys to remote sensing-based methods. Coupled with the machine learning methods, the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) multispectral remote sensing data can effectively improve the detection accuracy of vegetation and extract the important spectrum features.

RESULTS

In this study, UAV multispectral image data at flight altitudes of 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m were collected to be applied for vegetation detection in a karst area. The resulting ground resolutions of the 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m data are 5.29, 10.58, and 21.16 cm/pixel, respectively. Four machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Deep Learning (DL), were compared to test the performance of vegetation coverage detection. 5 spectral values (Red, Green, Blue, NIR, Red edge) and 16 VIs were selected to perform variable importance analysis on the best detection models. The results show that the best model for each flight altitude has the highest accuracy in detecting its training data (over 90%), and the GBM model constructed based on all data at all flight altitudes yields the best detection performance covering all data, with an overall accuracy of 95.66%. The variables that were significantly correlated and not correlated with the best model were the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and the Modified Anthocyanin Content Index (MACI), respectively. Finally, the best model was used to invert the complete UAV images at different flight altitudes.

CONCLUSIONS

In general, the GBM_all model constructed based on UAV imaging with all flight altitudes was feasible to accurately detect karst vegetation coverage. The prediction models constructed based on data from different flight altitudes had a certain similarity in the distribution of vegetation index importance. Combined with the method of visual interpretation, the karst green vegetation predicted by the best model was in good agreement with the ground truth, and other land types including hay, rock, and soil were well predicted. This study provided a methodological reference for the detection of karst vegetation coverage in eastern China.

The prediction of in-hospital mortality in chronic kidney disease patients with coronary artery disease using machine learning models

OBJECTIVE

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) in the intensive care unit (ICU) have higher in-hospital mortality and poorer prognosis than patients with either single condition. The objective of this study is to develop a novel model that can predict the in-hospital mortality of that kind of patient in the ICU using machine learning methods.

METHODS

Data of CKD patients with CAD were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. Boruta algorithm was conducted for the feature selection process. Eight machine learning algorithms, such as logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), Decision Tree, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree Machine (GBDT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Neural Network (NN), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were conducted to construct the predictive model for in-hospital mortality and performance was evaluated by average precision (AP) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) algorithm was applied to explain the model visually. Moreover, data from the Telehealth Intensive Care Unit Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) were acquired as an external validation set.

RESULTS

3590 and 1657 CKD patients with CAD were acquired from MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD databases, respectively. A total of 78 variables were selected for the machine learning model development process. Comparatively, GBDT had the highest predictive performance according to the results of AUC (0.946) and AP (0.778). The SHAP method reveals the top 20 factors based on the importance ranking. In addition, GBDT had good predictive value and a certain degree of clinical value in the external validation according to the AUC (0.865), AP (0.672), decision curve analysis, and calibration curve.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning algorithms, especially GBDT, can be reliable tools for accurately predicting the in-hospital mortality risk for CKD patients with CAD in the ICU. This contributed to providing optimal resource allocation and reducing in-hospital mortality by tailoring precise management and implementation of early interventions.

Models of ultrasonic radiomics and clinical characters for lymph node metastasis assessment in thyroid cancer: a retrospective study

Background

Preoperative prediction of cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma provided a basis for tumor staging and treatment decision. This study aimed to investigate the utility of machine learning and develop different models to preoperatively predict cervical lymph node metastasis based on ultrasonic radiomic features and clinical characteristics in papillary thyroid carcinoma nodules.

Methods

Data from 400 papillary thyroid carcinoma nodules were included and divided into training and validation group. With the help of machine learning, clinical characteristics and ultrasonic radiomic features were extracted and selected using randomforest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression before classified by five classifiers. Finally, 10 models were built and their area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were measured.

Results

Among the 10 models, RF-RF model revealed the highest area under curve (0.812) and accuracy (0.7542) in validation group. The top 10 variables of it included age, seven textural features, one shape feature and one first-order feature, in which eight were high-dimensional features.

Conclusions

RF-RF model showed the best predictive performance for cervical lymph node metastasis. And the importance features selected by it highlighted the unique role of higher-dimensional statistical methods for radiomics analysis.

Changes in arsenic accumulation and metabolic capacity after environmental management measures in mining area

Due to the public health concern of arsenic, environmental management measures in mining areas had been implemented. To assess the effect of environmental management measures in the mining area comprehensively, arsenic accumulation in the urine, hair, nails, and urinary metabolites of residents in a realgar mining area in Hunan province, China were investigated in 2019, and the changes in arsenic levels in the biomarkers during 2012-2019 were tracked. The importance of confounding factors (age, sex, occupation, residence, clinical history, vegetable source, cooking fuel, smoking, alcohol consumption, BMI) was analyzed using the Boruta algorithm. After the implementation of environmental management measures (including ceasing mining and smelting activities, building landfills, adjusting the planting structure, and soil restoration), urine, hair, and nail arsenic concentration decreased drastically but were still excessive. Arsenic accumulation was highest in older male miners who were long settled in the mining area and consumed homegrown vegetables. The only factor for changes in urinary arsenic levels was the cooking fuel type; residents using wood as cooking fuel experienced sustained arsenic exposure. Occupation and sex were important for determining arsenic changes in the hair and nails. Short-term arsenic accumulation in urine was affected by arsenic exposure, while long-term accumulation in hair and nails by arsenic metabolic capacity. The percentage of urinary arsenic metabolism and arsenic methylation indices of the participants in the mining area were within the normal range (%iAs: 10-30 %, %MMA: 10-20 %, % DMA: 60-80 %); samples indicated worse metabolic capacity than the reference population. The arsenic metabolic capacity of male miners was relatively weak, probably aggravated by alcohol drinking and smoking. Without soil remediation, arsenic exposure will continue. Homegrown vegetables and biomass fuels should be abandoned; reduced cigarette and alcohol consumption is recommended. Urinary arsenic would be more proper for assessing environmental remediation in mining areas.

A Novel Online Nomogram Established with Five Features before Surgical Resection for Predicating Prognosis of Neuroblastoma Children: A Population-Based Study

Background: Neuroblastoma (NB) is the most common childhood cancer, but doctors are unable to predict its overall survival (OS) rate before surgery. We aimed to predict the OS of NB children with some clinical features obtained from biopsy before surgery. Methods: Clinical features of NB children were retrospectively collected from the Therapeutically Applicable Research to Generate Effective Treatments database. The C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curves analysis were used to estimate nomogram models. Results: A total of 488 NB children were evaluated, and the Boruta algorithm was used to detect risk factors. The results showed that artificial neural networks with selected features were able to predict more than 90% of NB children. Five risk factors were used in the construction of the nomogram, including age at diagnosis, MYCN status, ploidy value, histology, and mitosis-karyorrhexis index (MKI). The C-index of the nomogram in training cohort and validation cohort was 0.716 and 0.731. AUC values for 1-, 3-, and 5-years OS predictions were 0.706, 0.755, and 0.762, respectively, and showed good calibrations. Decision curve analysis indicated a better predictability with the nomogram model based on Cox regression compared with one that included all variables and histology only. Also, the Kaplan-Meier curves showed a significantly higher survival probability in the low-risk group (total score <118.34) versus the high-risk group (total score ≥ 118.34) (p < 0.05) using the nomogram model. Conclusions: A web application based on the nomogram model in the present study can be accessed at https://mdzhou.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/, which could help doctors make accurate clinical decisions about NB children.

Design and methodological considerations for biomarker discovery and validation in the Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Program

The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n = 252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n = 479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had a current or former history of smoking and cases were diagnosed up to 3 years following blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1078 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within four LDCT screening studies (n = 425 cases diagnosed up to 5 years following blood draw, 430 benign-nodule controls, and 398 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n = 1696 cases and 2926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within five LDCT screening studies (n = 675 cases, 680 benign-nodule controls, and 648 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.

Predicting pathological highly invasive lung cancer from preoperative [18F]FDG PET/CT with multiple machine learning models

PURPOSE

The efficacy of sublobar resection of primary lung cancer have been proven in recent years. However, sublobar resection for highly invasive lung cancer increases local recurrence. We developed and validated multiple machine learning models predicting pathological invasiveness of lung cancer based on preoperative [¹⁸F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and computed tomography (CT) radiomic features.

METHODS

Overall, 873 patients who underwent lobectomy or segmentectomy for primary lung cancer were enrolled. Radiomics features were extracted from preoperative PET/CT images with the PyRadiomics package. Seven machine learning models and an ensemble of all models (ENS) were evaluated after 100 iterations. In addition, the probability of highly invasive lung cancer was calculated in a nested cross-validation to assess the calibration plot and clinical usefulness and to compare to consolidation tumour ratio (CTR) on CT images, one of the generally used diagnostic criteria.

RESULTS

In the training set, when PET and CT features were combined, all models achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of ≥ 0.880. In the test set, ENS showed the highest mean AUC of 0.880 and smallest standard deviation of 0.0165, and when the cutoff was 0.5, accuracy of 0.804, F1 of 0.851, precision of 0.821, and recall of 0.885. In the nested cross-validation, the AUC of 0.882 (95% CI: 0.860-0.905) showed a high discriminative ability, and the calibration plot indicated consistency with a Brier score of 0.131. A decision curve analysis showed that the ENS was valid with a threshold probability ranging from 3 to 98%. Accuracy showed an improvement of more than 8% over the CTR.

CONCLUSION

The machine learning model based on preoperative [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT images was able to predict pathological highly invasive lung cancer with high discriminative ability and stability. The calibration plot showed good consistency, suggesting its usefulness in quantitative risk assessment.

Identification of biomarkers to stratify response to B-cell-targeted therapies in systemic lupus erythematosus: an exploratory analysis of a randomised controlled trial

Background

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex autoimmune disease associated with widespread immune dysregulation and diverse clinical features. Immune abnormalities might be differentially associated with specific organ involvement or response to targeted therapies. We aimed to identify biomarkers of response to belimumab after rituximab to facilitate a personalised approach to therapy.

Methods

In this exploratory analysis of a randomised controlled trial (BEAT-LUPUS), we investigated immune profiles of patients with SLE recruited to the 52-week clinical trial, which tested the combination of rituximab plus belimumab versus rituximab plus placebo. We used machine learning and conventional statistics to investigate relevant laboratory and clinical biomarkers associated with major clinical response. BEAT LUPUS is registered at ISRCTN, 47873003, and is now complete.

Findings

Between Feb 2, 2017, and March 28, 2019, 52 patients were recruited to BEAT-LUPUS, of whom 44 provided clinical data at week 52 and were included in this analysis. 21 (48%) of 44 participants were in the belimumab group (mean age 39·5 years [SD 12·1]; 17 [81%] were female, four [19%] were male, 13 [62%] were White) and 23 (52%) were in the placebo group (mean age 42·1 years [SD 10·5]; 21 [91%] were female, two [9%] were male, 16 [70%] were White). Ten (48%) of 21 participants who received belimumab after rituximab and eight (35%) of 23 who received placebo after rituximab had a major clinical response at 52 weeks (between-group difference of 13% [95% CI -15 to 38]). We found a predictive association between baseline serum IgA2 anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) antibody concentrations and clinical response to belimumab after rituximab, with a between-group difference in major clinical response of 48% (95% CI 10 to 70) in patients with elevated baseline serum IgA2 anti-dsDNA antibody concentrations. Moreover, among those who had a major clinical response, serum IgA2 anti-dsDNA antibody concentrations significantly decreased from baseline only in the belimumab group. Increased circulating IgA2 (but not total) plasmablast numbers, and T follicular helper cell numbers predicted clinical response and were both reduced only in patients who responded to belimumab after rituximab. Serum IgA2 anti-dsDNA antibody concentrations were also associated with active renal disease, whereas serum IgA1 anti-dsDNA antibody and IFN-α concentrations were associated with mucocutaneous disease activity but did not predict response to B-cell targeted therapy. Patients with a high baseline serum interleukin-6 concentration were less likely to have a major clinical response, irrespective of therapy.

Interpretation

This exploratory study revealed the presence of distinct molecular networks associated with renal and mucocutaneous involvement, and response to B-cell-targeted therapies, which, if confirmed, could guide precision targeting of advanced therapies for this heterogenous disease.

Funding

Versus Arthritis, UCLH Biomedical Research Centre, LUPUS UK, and GSK.

Risk Stratification of COVID-19 Using Routine Laboratory Tests: A Machine Learning Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic placed significant stress on an already overburdened health system. The diagnosis was based on detection of a positive RT-PCR test, which may be delayed when there is peak demand for testing. Rapid risk stratification of high-risk patients allows for the prioritization of resources for patient care. The study aims were to classify patients as severe or not severe based on outcomes using machine learning on routine laboratory tests. Data were extracted for all individuals who had at least one SARS-CoV-2 PCR test conducted via the NHLS between the periods of 1 March 2020 to 7 July 2020. Exclusion criteria: those 18 years, and those with indeterminate PCR tests. Results for 15437 patients (3301 positive and 12,136 negative) were used to fit six machine learning models, namely the logistic regression (LR) (the base model), decision trees (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), convolutional neural network (CNN) and self-normalising neural network (SNN). Model development was carried out by splitting the data into training and testing set of a ratio 70:30, together with a 10-fold cross-validation re-sampling technique. For risk stratification, admission to high care or ICU was the outcome for severe disease. Performance of the models varied: sensitivity was best for RF at 75% and accuracy of 75% for CNN. The area under the curve ranged from 57% for CNN to 75% for RF. RF and SNN were the best-performing models. Machine Learning (ML) can be incorporated into the laboratory information system and offers promise for early identification and risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, particularly in areas of resource-poor settings.

Predicting Length of Stay using machine learning for total joint replacements performed at a rural community hospital

BACKGROUND

Predicting patient's Length of Stay (LOS) before total joint replacement (TJR) surgery is vital for hospitals to optimally manage costs and resources. Many hospitals including in rural areas use publicly available models such as National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) calculator which, unfortunately, performs suboptimally when predicting LOS for TJR procedures.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this research was to develop a Machine Learning (ML) model to predict LOS for TJR procedures performed at a Perioperative Surgical Home implemented rural community hospital for better accuracy and interpretation than the NSQIP calculator.

METHODS

A total of 158 TJR patients were collected and analyzed from a rural community hospital located in Montana. A random forest (RF) model was used to predict patient's LOS. For interpretation, permuted feature importance and partial dependence plot methods were used to identify the important variables and their relationship with the LOS.

RESULTS

The root mean square error for the RF model (0.7) was lower than the NSQIP calculator (1.21). The five most important variables for predicting LOS were BMI, Duke Activity Status-Index, diabetes, patient's household income, and patient's age.

CONCLUSION

This pilot study is the first of its kind to develop an ML model to predict LOS for TJR procedures that were performed at a small-scale rural community hospital. This pilot study contributes an approach for rural hospitals, making them more independent by developing their own predictions instead of relying on public models.

Metabolomics and random forests in patients with complex congenital heart disease

Introduction

It is increasingly common to simultaneously determine a large number of metabolites in order to assess the metabolic state of, or clarify biochemical pathways in, an organism (“metabolomics”). This approach is increasingly used in the investigation of the development of heart failure. Recently, the first reports with respect to a metabolomic approach for the assessment of patients with complex congenital heart disease have been published. Classical statistical analysis of such data is challenging.

Objective

This study aims to present an alternative to classical statistics with respect to identifying relevant metabolites in a classification task and numerically estimating their relative impact.

Methods

Data from two metabolomic studies on 20 patients with complex congenital heart disease and Fontan circulation and 20 controls were reanalysed using random forest (RF) methodology. Results were compared to those of classical statistics.

Results

RF analysis required no elaborate data pre-processing. The ranking of the variables with respect to classification impact (subject diseased, or not) was remarkably similar irrespective of the evaluation method used, leading to identical clinical interpretation.

Conclusion

In metabolomic classification in adult patients with complex congenital heart disease, RF analysis as a one-step method delivers the most adequate results with minimum effort. RF may serve as an adjunct to traditional statistics also in this small but crucial-to-monitor patient group.

Newborn Cry Acoustics in the Assessment of Neonatal Opioid Withdrawal Syndrome Using Machine Learning

IMPORTANCE

The assessment of opioid withdrawal in the neonate, or neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS), is problematic because current assessment methods are based on subjective observer ratings. Crying is a distinctive component of NOWS assessment tools and can be measured objectively using acoustic analysis.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the feasibility of using newborn cry acoustics (acoustics referring to the physical properties of sound) as an objective biobehavioral marker of NOWS.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective controlled cohort study assessed whether acoustic analysis of neonate cries could predict which infants would receive pharmacological treatment for NOWS. A total of 177 full-term neonates exposed and not exposed to opioids were recruited from Women & Infants Hospital of Rhode Island between August 8, 2016, and March 18, 2020. Cry recordings were processed for 118 neonates, and 65 neonates were included in the final analyses. Neonates exposed to opioids were monitored for signs of NOWS using the Finnegan Neonatal Abstinence Scoring Tool administered every 3 hours as part of a 5-day observation period during which audio was recorded continuously to capture crying. Crying of healthy neonates was recorded before hospital discharge during routine handling (eg, diaper changes).

EXPOSURES

The primary exposure was prenatal opioid exposure as determined by maternal receipt of medication-assisted treatment with methadone or buprenorphine.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Neonates were stratified by prenatal opioid exposure and receipt of pharmacological treatment for NOWS before discharge from the hospital. In total, 775 hours of audio were collected and trimmed into 2.5 hours of usable cries, then acoustically analyzed (using 2 separate acoustic analyzers). Cross-validated supervised machine learning methods (combining the Boruta algorithm and a random forest classifier) were used to identify relevant acoustic parameters and predict pharmacological treatment for NOWS.

RESULTS

Final analyses included 65 neonates (mean [SD] gestational age at birth, 36.6 [1.1] weeks; 36 [55.4%] female; 50 [76.9%] White) with usable cry recordings. Of those, 19 neonates received pharmacological treatment for NOWS, 7 neonates were exposed to opioids but did not receive pharmacological treatment for NOWS, and 39 healthy neonates were not exposed to opioids. The mean of the predictions of random forest classifiers predicted receipt of pharmacological treatment for NOWS with high diagnostic accuracy (area under the curve, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.98]; accuracy, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.74-0.92]; sensitivity, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.67-0.99]; specificity, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.69-0.92]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, newborn acoustic cry analysis had potential as an objective measure of opioid withdrawal. These findings suggest that acoustic cry analysis using machine learning could improve the assessment, diagnosis, and management of NOWS and facilitate standardized care for these infants.

Interpretable Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Intraoperative Cerebrospinal Fluid Leakage in Endoscopic Transsphenoidal Pituitary Surgery: A Pilot Study

Purpose  Transsphenoidal surgery (TSS) for pituitary adenomas can be complicated by the occurrence of intraoperative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage (IOL). IOL significantly affects the course of surgery predisposing to the development of postoperative CSF leakage, a major source of morbidity and mortality in the postoperative period. The authors trained and internally validated the Random Forest (RF) prediction model to preoperatively identify patients at high risk for IOL. A locally interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) algorithm is employed to elucidate the main drivers behind each machine learning (ML) model prediction. Methods  The data of 210 patients who underwent TSS were collected; first, risk factors for IOL were identified via conventional statistical methods (multivariable logistic regression). Then, the authors trained, optimized, and audited a RF prediction model. Results  IOL reported in 45 patients (21.5%). The recursive feature selection algorithm identified the following variables as the most significant determinants of IOL: Knosp's grade, sellar Hardy's grade, suprasellar Hardy's grade, tumor diameter (on X, Y, and Z axes), intercarotid distance, and secreting status (nonfunctioning and growth hormone [GH] secreting). Leveraging the predictive values of these variables, the RF prediction model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78; 0.86), significantly outperforming the multivariable logistic regression model (AUC = 0.63). Conclusion  A RF model that reliably identifies patients at risk for IOL was successfully trained and internally validated. ML-based prediction models can predict events that were previously judged nearly unpredictable; their deployment in clinical practice may result in improved patient care and reduced postoperative morbidity and healthcare costs.

Impact of Phenol-Enriched Olive Oils on Serum Metabonome and Its Relationship with Cardiometabolic Parameters: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Cross-Over, Controlled Trial

Phenol-rich foods consumption such as virgin olive oil (VOO) has been shown to have beneficial effects on cardiovascular diseases. The broader biochemical impact of VOO and phenol-enriched OOs remains, however, unclear. A randomized, double-blind, cross-over, controlled trial was performed with thirty-three hypercholesterolemic individuals who ingested for 3-weeks (25 mL/day): (1) an OO enriched with its own olive oil phenolic compounds (PCs) (500 ppm; FOO); (2) an OO enriched with its own olive oil PCs (250 ppm) plus thyme PCs (250 ppm; FOOT); and (3) a VOO with low phenolic content (80 ppm). Serum lipid and glycemic profiles, serum ¹H-NMR spectroscopy-based metabolomics, endothelial function, blood pressure, and cardiovascular risk were measured. We combined OPLS-DA with machine learning modelling to identify metabolites discrimination of the treatment groups. Both phenol-enriched OO interventions decreased the levels of glutamine, creatinine, creatine, dimethylamine, and histidine in comparison to VOO one. In addition, FOOT decreased the plasma levels of glycine and DMSO2 compared to VOO, while FOO decreased the circulating alanine concentrations but increased the plasma levels of acetone and 3-HB compared to VOO. Based on these findings, phenol-enriched OOs were shown to result in a favorable shift in the circulating metabolic phenotype, inducing a reduction in metabolites associated with cardiometabolic diseases.

Magnetic Resonance Elastography as Surrogate Marker of Interstitial Fibrosis in Kidney Transplantation: A Prospective Study

Background

Fibrosis progression is a major prognosis factor in kidney transplantation. Its assessment requires an allograft biopsy, which remains an invasive procedure at risk of complications.

Methods

We assessed renal stiffness by magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) as a surrogate marker of fibrosis in a prospective cohort of kidney transplant recipients compared with the histologic gold standard. Interstitial fibrosis was evaluated by three methods: the semi-quantitative Banff ci score, a visual quantitative evaluation by a pathologist, and a computer-assisted quantitative evaluation. MRE-derived stiffness was assessed at the superior, median, and inferior poles of the allograft.

Results

We initially enrolled 73 patients, but only 55 had measurements of their allograft stiffness by MRE before an allograft biopsy. There was no significant correlation between MRE-derived stiffness at the biopsy site and the ci score (ρ=-0.25, P=0.06) or with the two quantitative assessments (pathologist: ρ=-0.25, P=0.07; computer assisted: ρ=-0.21, P=0.12). We observed negative correlations between the stiffness of both the biopsy site and the whole allograft, with either the glomerulosclerosis percentage (ρ=-0.32, P=0.02 and ρ=-0.31, P=0.02, respectively) and the overall nephron fibrosis percentage, defined as the mean of the percentages of glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis (ρ=-0.30, P=0.02 and ρ=-0.28, P=0.04, respectively). At patient level, mean MRE-derived stiffness was similar across the three poles of the allograft (±0.25 kPa). However, a high variability of mean stiffness was found between patients, suggesting a strong influence of confounding factors. Finally, no significant correlation was found between mean MRE-derived stiffness and the slope of eGFR (P=0.08).

Conclusions

MRE-derived stiffness does not directly reflect the extent of fibrosis in kidney transplantation.

Older Adults' concerns regarding Hurricane-Induced evacuations during COVID-19: Questionnaire findings

The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically affected our day-to-day life in the last few years. This problem becomes even more challenging when older adults are considered due to their less powerful immune system and vulnerability to infectious diseases, especially in Florida where 4.5 million people aged 65 and over reside. With its long coastline, large and rapidly growing of older adult population, and geographic diversity, Florida is also uniquely vulnerable to hurricanes, which significantly increases the associated risks of COVID-19 even further. This study investigates older adults' evacuation-related concerns during COVID-19 using statistical analysis of a questionnaire conducted among 389 older adult Florida residents. The questionnaire includes questions concerning demographic information and older adults' attitudes toward hurricane-induced evacuations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ordered Probit regression models were developed to investigate the impacts of demographic parameters on older adults' tendencies toward evacuating as well as their preferences to stay at home or shelter during the pandemic. The model results reveal that male participants felt safer to evacuate compared to females. Also, any decrease in the level of income was associated with an increase in the need for help for evacuation by 18%. Findings indicated that the participants who found the evacuation safe normally also had a positive attitude toward staying in their vehicle, hotel, or even shelters if maintaining social distance was possible. Emergency management policies can utilize these findings to enhance hurricane preparations for dealing with the additional health risks posed by the pandemic for older adults, a situation that could be exacerbated by the upcoming hurricane season in Florida.

Ultrasound-based radiomics XGBoost model to assess the risk of central cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: Individual application of SHAP

Objectives

A radiomics-based explainable eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was developed to predict central cervical lymph node metastasis (CCLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), including positive and negative effects.

Methods

A total of 587 PTC patients admitted at Binzhou Medical University Hospital from 2017 to 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were randomized into the training and test cohorts with an 8:2 ratio. Radiomics features were extracted from ultrasound images of the primary PTC lesions. The minimum redundancy maximum relevance algorithm and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used to select CCLNM positively-related features and radiomics scores were constructed. Clinical features, ultrasound features, and radiomics score were screened out by the Boruta algorithm, and the XGBoost model was constructed from these characteristics. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used for individualized and visualized interpretation. SHAP addressed the cognitive opacity of machine learning models.

Results

Eleven radiomics features were used to calculate the radiomics score. Five critical elements were used to build the XGBoost model: capsular invasion, radiomics score, diameter, age, and calcification. The area under the curve was 91.53% and 90.88% in the training and test cohorts, respectively. SHAP plots showed the influence of each parameter on the XGBoost model, including positive (i.e., capsular invasion, radiomics score, diameter, and calcification) and negative (i.e., age) impacts. The XGBoost model outperformed the radiologist, increasing the AUC by 44%.

Conclusions

The radiomics-based XGBoost model predicted CCLNM in PTC patients. Visual interpretation using SHAP made the model an effective tool for preoperative guidance of clinical procedures, including positive and negative impacts.

Identification of key predictors of hospital mortality in critically ill patients with embolic stroke using machine learning

Embolic stroke (ES) is characterized by high morbidity and mortality. Its mortality predictors remain unclear. The present study aimed to use machine learning (ML) to identify the key predictors of mortality for ES patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Data were extracted from two large ICU databases: Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV for training and internal validation, and eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) for external validation. We developed predictive models of ES mortality based on 15 ML algorithms. We relied on the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to address class imbalance. Our main performance metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC). We adopted recursive feature elimination (RFE) for feature selection. We assessed model performance using three disease-severity scoring systems as benchmarks. Of the 1566 and 207 ES patients enrolled in the two databases, there were 173 (15.70%), 73 (15.57%), and 36 (17.39%) hospital mortality in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohort, respectively. The random forest (RF) model had the largest AUROC (0.806) in the internal validation phase and was chosen as the best model. The AUROC of the RF compact (RF-COM) model containing the top six features identified by RFE was 0.795. In the external validation phase, the AUROC of the RF model was 0.838, and the RF-COM model was 0.830, outperforming other models. Our findings suggest that the RF model was the best model and the top six predictors of ES hospital mortality were Glasgow Coma Scale, white blood cell, blood urea nitrogen, bicarbonate, age, and mechanical ventilation.

Cuproptosis status affects treatment options about immunotherapy and targeted therapy for patients with kidney renal clear cell carcinoma

The development of immunotherapy has changed the treatment landscape of advanced kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), offering patients more treatment options. Cuproptosis, a novel cell death mode dependent on copper ions and mitochondrial respiration has not yet been studied in KIRC. We assembled a comprehensive cohort of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)-KIRC and GSE29609, performed cluster analysis for typing twice using seven cuproptosis-promoting genes (CPGs) as a starting point, and assessed the differences in biological and clinicopathological characteristics between different subtypes. Furthermore, we explored the tumor immune infiltration landscape in KIRC using ESTIMATE and single-sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA) and the potential molecular mechanisms of cuproptosis in KIRC using enrichment analysis. We constructed a cuproptosis score (CUS) using the Boruta algorithm combined with principal component analysis. We evaluated the impact of CUS on prognosis, targeted therapy, and immunotherapy in patients with KIRC using survival analysis, the predictions from the Cancer Immunome Atlas database, and targeted drug susceptibility analysis. We found that patients with high CUS levels show poor prognosis and efficacy against all four immune checkpoint inhibitors, and their immunosuppression may depend on TGFB1. However, the high-CUS group showed higher sensitivity to sunitinib, axitinib, and elesclomol. Sunitinib monotherapy may reverse the poor prognosis and result in higher progression free survival. Then, we identified two potential CPGs and verified their differential expression between the KIRC and the normal samples. Finally, we explored the effect of the key gene FDX1 on the proliferation of KIRC cells and confirmed the presence of cuproptosis in KIRC cells. We developed a targeted therapy and immunotherapy strategy for advanced KIRC based on CUS. Our findings provide new insights into the relationship among cuproptosis, metabolism, and immunity in KIRC.

Prediction poverty levels of needy college students using RF-PCA model

Nowadays, poverty-stricken college students have become a special group among college students and occupied a higher proportion in it. How to accurately identify poverty levels of college students and provide funding is a new problem for universities. In this study, a novel model, which incorporated Random Forest with Principle Components Analysis (RF-PCA), is proposed to predict poverty levels of college students. To establish this model, we collect some useful information is to construct the datasets which include 4 classes of poverty levels and 21 features of poverty-stricken college students. Furthermore, the feature dimension reduction consists of two steps: the first step is to select the top 16 features with the ranking of feature, according to the Gini importance and Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) values of features based on Random Forest (RF) model; the second step is to extract 11 dimensions by means of Principle Components Analysis (PCA). Subsequently, confusion metrics and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are utilized to evaluate the promising performance of the proposed model. Especially the accuracy of the model achieves 78.61% . Finally, compared with seven states of the art classification algorithms, the proposed model achieves a higher prediction accuracy, which indicates that the results provide great potential to identify the poverty levels of college students.