Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for Thirteen Cancer Types

Cancer is an adaptation that selects in animals against energy dissipation

As cancer usually follows reproduction, it is generally assumed that cancer does not select. Graham has however argued that juvenile cancer, which precedes reproduction, could during evolution have implemented a "cancer selection" that resulted in novel traits that suppress this juvenile cancer; an example is protection against UV sunlight-induced cancer, required for the emergence of terrestrial animals from the sea. We modify the cancer selection mechanism to the posited "cancer adaptation" mechanism, in which juvenile mortality is enhanced through the diminished care received by juveniles from their (grand) parents when these suffer from cancer in old age. Moreover, it is posited that the cancer adaptation selects against germline "dissipative genes", genes that result in enhanced free energy dissipation. Cancer's progression is interpreted as a cascade at increasing scale of repeated amplification of energy dissipation, a cascade involving heat shock, the Warburg effect, the cytokine IL-6, tumours, and hypermetabolism. Disturbance of any physiological process must enhance energy dissipation if the animal remains functioning normally, what explains multicausality, why "everything gives you cancer". The hypothesis thus comprises two newly invoked partial processes-diminished (grand) parental care and dissipation amplification-and results in a "selection against enhanced energy dissipation" which gives during evolution the benefit of energy conservation. Due to this benefit, cancer would essentially be an adaptation, and not a genetic disease, as assumed in the "somatic mutation theory". Cancer by somatic mutations is only a side process. The cancer adaptation hypothesis is substantiated by (1) cancer's extancy, (2) the failure of the somatic mutation theory, (3) cancer's initiation by a high temperature, (4) the interpretation of cancer's progression as a thermal process, and (5) the interpretation of tumours as organs that implement thermogenesis. The hypothesis could in principle be verified by monitoring in a population over several generations (1) the presence of dissipative genes, (2) the incidence of cancer, and (3) the beneficial effect of dissipative gene removal by cancer on starvation/famine survival.

Genome-wide association study identifies multiple risk loci for renal cell carcinoma

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified six risk loci for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We conducted a meta-analysis of two new scans of 5,198 cases and 7,331 controls together with four existing scans, totalling 10,784 cases and 20,406 controls of European ancestry. Twenty-four loci were tested in an additional 3,182 cases and 6,301 controls. We confirm the six known RCC risk loci and identify seven new loci at 1p32.3 (rs4381241, P=3.1 × 10-10), 3p22.1 (rs67311347, P=2.5 × 10-8), 3q26.2 (rs10936602, P=8.8 × 10-9), 8p21.3 (rs2241261, P=5.8 × 10-9), 10q24.33-q25.1 (rs11813268, P=3.9 × 10-8), 11q22.3 (rs74911261, P=2.1 × 10-10) and 14q24.2 (rs4903064, P=2.2 × 10-24). Expression quantitative trait analyses suggest plausible candidate genes at these regions that may contribute to RCC susceptibility.

Exome Array Analysis Identifies Variants in SPOCD1 and BTN3A2 That Affect Risk for Gastric Cancer

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several genetic variants have been associated with gastric cancer risk, although these account for only a fraction of cases of gastric cancer. We aimed to identify low-frequency and other genetic variants that determine gastric cancer susceptibility.

METHODS

We performed exome array analysis of DNA in blood samples from 1113 patients with gastric cancer, collected at hospitals from 2006 to 2010 in China, and 1848 individuals without cancer (controls) undergoing physical examinations. Among 71,290 variants analyzed (including 25,784 common variants), 24 variants were selected and replicated in an analysis of DNA in blood samples from 4687 additional cases of gastric cancer and 5780 controls. We compared expression of candidate genes in tumor vs normal gastric tissues using data from TCGA and performed functional annotation analyses. An immortalized human gastric epithelial cell line (GES1) and 7 human gastric cancer lines were used to express transgenes, knock down gene expression (with small interfering RNAs), disrupt genes (using the CRISPR/Cas9 system), or assess expression of reporter constructs. We measured cell proliferation, colony formation, invasion, and migration, and assessed growth of xenograft tumors in nude mice.

RESULTS

A low-frequency missense variant rs112754928 in the SPOC domain containing 1 gene (SPOCD1; encoding p.Arg71Trp), at 1p35.2, was reproducibly associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer (odds ratio, 0.56; P = 3.48 × 10^-8). SPOCD1 was overexpressed in gastric tumors, and knockout of SPOCD1 reduced gastric cancer cell proliferation, invasive activity, and migration, as well as growth of xenograft tumors in nude mice. We also associated the variant rs1679709 at 6p22.1 with reduced risk for gastric cancer (odds ratio, 0.80; P = 1.17 × 10^-13). The protective allele rs1679709-A correlated with the surrounding haplotype rs2799077-T-rs2799079-C, which reduced the enhancer activity of this site to decrease expression of the butyrophilin subfamily 3 member A2 gene (BTN3A2). BTN3A2 is overexpressed in gastric tumors, and deletion of BTN3A2 inhibited proliferation, migration, and invasion of gastric cancer cells.

CONCLUSIONS

We have associated variants at 1p35.2 and 6p22.1 with gastric cancer risk, indicating a role for SPOCD1 and BTN3A2 in gastric carcinogenesis.

Genome-wide association study identifies four novel loci associated with Alzheimer's endophenotypes and disease modifiers

More than 20 genetic loci have been associated with risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD), but reported genome-wide significant loci do not account for all the estimated heritability and provide little information about underlying biological mechanisms. Genetic studies using intermediate quantitative traits such as biomarkers, or endophenotypes, benefit from increased statistical power to identify variants that may not pass the stringent multiple test correction in case-control studies. Endophenotypes also contain additional information helpful for identifying variants and genes associated with other aspects of disease, such as rate of progression or onset, and provide context to interpret the results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We conducted GWAS of amyloid beta (Aβ42), tau, and phosphorylated tau (ptau181) levels in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from 3146 participants across nine studies to identify novel variants associated with AD. Five genome-wide significant loci (two novel) were associated with ptau181, including loci that have also been associated with AD risk or brain-related phenotypes. Two novel loci associated with Aβ42 near GLIS1 on 1p32.3 (β = -0.059, P = 2.08 × 10-8) and within SERPINB1 on 6p25 (β = -0.025, P = 1.72 × 10-8) were also associated with AD risk (GLIS1: OR = 1.105, P = 3.43 × 10-2), disease progression (GLIS1: β = 0.277, P = 1.92 × 10-2), and age at onset (SERPINB1: β = 0.043, P = 4.62 × 10-3). Bioinformatics indicate that the intronic SERPINB1 variant (rs316341) affects expression of SERPINB1 in various tissues, including the hippocampus, suggesting that SERPINB1 influences AD through an Aβ-associated mechanism. Analyses of known AD risk loci suggest CLU and FERMT2 may influence CSF Aβ42 (P = 0.001 and P = 0.009, respectively) and the INPP5D locus may affect ptau181 levels (P = 0.009); larger studies are necessary to verify these results. Together the findings from this study can be used to inform future AD studies.

Nonrandom occurrence of lymphoid cancer types in 140 families

We studied 140 families with two or more lymphoid cancers, including non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), and multiple myeloma (MM), for deviation from the population age of onset and lymphoid cancer co-occurrence patterns. Median familial NHL, HL, CLL and MM ages of onset are substantially earlier than comparable population data. NHL, HL and CLL (but not MM) also show earlier age of onset in later generations, known as anticipation. The co-occurrence of lymphoid cancers is significantly different from that expected based on population frequencies (p < .0001), and the pattern differs more in families with more affected members (p < .0001), suggesting specific lymphoid cancer combinations have a shared genetic basis. These families provide evidence for inherited factors that increase the risk of multiple lymphoid cancers. This study was approved by the BC Cancer Agency - University of British Columbia Clinical Research Ethics Board.

Concordant and discordant familial cancer: Familial risks, proportions and population impact

Relatives of cancer patients are at an increased risk of the same (concordant) cancer but whether they are at a risk for different (discordant) cancers is largely unknown - beyond well characterized hereditary cancer syndromes - but would be of major scientific and clinical interest. We therefore decided to resolve the issue by analyzing familial risks when family members were diagnosed with any discordant cancers. We compared the population impact of concordant to discordant familial cancer. The Swedish Family-Cancer Database (FCD) was used to calculate familial relative risks (RRs) for family members of cancer patients, for the 27 most common cancers. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were estimated for concordant and discordant family histories. Discordant cancers in the family were detected as significant risk factors for the majority of cancers, although the corresponding RRs were modest compared to RRs for concordant cancers. Risks increased with the number of affected family members with the highest RRs for pancreatic (2.31), lung (1.69), kidney (1.98), nervous system (1.79) and thyroid cancers (3.28), when 5 or more family members were diagnosed with discordant cancers. For most cancers, the PAF for discordant family history exceeded that for concordant family history. Our findings suggest that there is an unspecific genetic predisposition to cancer with clinical consequences. We consider it unlikely that shared environmental risk factors could essentially contribute to the risks for diverse discordant cancers, which are likely driven by genetic predisposition. The identification of genes that moderately increase the risk for many cancers will be a challenge.

Estimation of heritability for nine common cancers using data from genome-wide association studies in Chinese population

The familial aggregation indicated the inheritance of cancer risk. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified a number of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Following heritability analyses have shown that SNPs could explain a moderate amount of variance for different cancer phenotypes among Caucasians. However, little information was available in Chinese population. We performed a genome-wide complex trait analysis for common cancers at nine anatomical sites in Chinese population (14,629 cancer cases vs. 17,554 controls) and estimated the heritability of these cancers based on the common SNPs. We found that common SNPs explained certain amount of heritability with significance for all nine cancer sites: gastric cancer (20.26%), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (19.86%), colorectal cancer (16.30%), lung cancer (LC) (15.17%), and epithelial ovarian cancer (13.31%), and a similar heritability around 10% for hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma, prostate cancer, breast cancer and nasopharyngeal carcinoma. We found that nearly or less than 25% change was shown when removing the regions expanding 250 kb or 500 kb upward and downward of the GWAS-reported SNPs. We also found strong linear correlations between variance partitioned by each chromosome and chromosomal length only for LC (R2  = 0.641, p = 0.001) and esophageal squamous cell cancer (R2  = 0.633, p = 0.002), which implied us the complex heterogeneity of cancers. These results indicate polygenic genetic architecture of the nine common cancers in Chinese population. Further efforts should be made to discover the hidden heritability of different cancer types among Chinese.

Winner's Curse Correction and Variable Thresholding Improve Performance of Polygenic Risk Modeling Based on Genome-Wide Association Study Summary-Level Data

Recent heritability analyses have indicated that genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have the potential to improve genetic risk prediction for complex diseases based on polygenic risk score (PRS), a simple modelling technique that can be implemented using summary-level data from the discovery samples. We herein propose modifications to improve the performance of PRS. We introduce threshold-dependent winner's-curse adjustments for marginal association coefficients that are used to weight the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in PRS. Further, as a way to incorporate external functional/annotation knowledge that could identify subsets of SNPs highly enriched for associations, we propose variable thresholds for SNPs selection. We applied our methods to GWAS summary-level data of 14 complex diseases. Across all diseases, a simple winner's curse correction uniformly led to enhancement of performance of the models, whereas incorporation of functional SNPs was beneficial only for selected diseases. Compared to the standard PRS algorithm, the proposed methods in combination led to notable gain in efficiency (25-50% increase in the prediction R2) for 5 of 14 diseases. As an example, for GWAS of type 2 diabetes, winner's curse correction improved prediction R2 from 2.29% based on the standard PRS to 3.10% (P = 0.0017) and incorporating functional annotation data further improved R2 to 3.53% (P = 2×10-5). Our simulation studies illustrate why differential treatment of certain categories of functional SNPs, even when shown to be highly enriched for GWAS-heritability, does not lead to proportionate improvement in genetic risk-prediction because of non-uniform linkage disequilibrium structure.

Genomic Landscape of Experimental Bladder Cancer in Rodents and Its Application to Human Bladder Cancer: Gene Amplification and Potential Overexpression of Cyp2a5/CYP2A6 Are Associated with the Invasive Phenotype

Non-muscle invasive (superficial) bladder cancer is a low-grade malignancy with good prognosis, while muscle invasive (invasive) bladder cancer is a high-grade malignancy with poor prognosis. N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl)nitrosamine (BBN) induces superficial bladder cancers with papillary morphology in rats and invasive bladder cancers with infiltrating phenotype in mice. In this study, we analyzed genomic landscapes of rodent BBN-induced bladder cancers using array-based comparative genomic hybridization (array CGH). While no significant copy number alterations were detected in superficial bladder tumors in rats, copy number gains in chromosomal regions 2D-E1, 7qA3, 9F2, and 11C-D were detected in invasive bladder tumors in mice. Amplification of representative genes located on 2D-E1 and 7qA3 chromosomal regions was confirmed by quantitative PCR. Cyp2a22 and Cyp2a5 genes but not Cyp2g1, Cyp2a12, and Rab4b genes on mouse chromosome 7qA3 were amplified in invasive bladder cancers. Although the human ortholog gene of Cyp2a22 has not been confirmed, the mouse Cyp2a5 gene is the ortholog of the human CYP2A6 gene located in chromosomal region 19q13.2, and CYP2A6 was identified by database search as one of the closest human homolog to mouse Cyp2a22. Considering a possibility that this region may be related to mouse 7qA3, we analyzed CYP2A6 copy number and expression in human bladder cancer using cell lines and resected tumor specimens. Although only one of eight cell lines showed more than one copy increase of the CYP2A6 gene, CYP2A6 amplification was detected in six out of 18 primary bladder tumors where it was associated with the invasive phenotype. Immunohistochemical analyses of 118 primary bladder tumors revealed that CYP2A6 protein expression was also higher in invasive tumors, especially in those of the scattered type. Together, these findings indicate that the amplification and overexpression of the CYP2A6 gene are characteristic of human bladder cancers with increased malignancy and that CYP2A6 can be a candidate prognostic biomarker in this type of cancer.

2016 US lymphoid malignancy statistics by World Health Organization subtypes

Collectively, lymphoid neoplasms are the fourth most common cancer and the sixth leading cause of cancer death in the United States. The authors provide contemporary lymphoid neoplasm statistics by subtype based on the 2008 World Health Organization classifications, including the most current US incidence and survival data. Presented for the first time are estimates of the total numbers of US lymphoid neoplasm cases by subtype as well as a detailed evaluation of incidence and survival statistics. In 2016, 136,960 new lymphoid neoplasms are expected. Overall lymphoma incidence rates have declined in recent years, but trends vary by subtype. Precursor lymphoid neoplasm incidence rates increased from 2001 to 2012, particularly for B-cell neoplasms. Among the mature lymphoid neoplasms, the fastest increase was for plasma cell neoplasms. Rates also increased for mantle cell lymphoma (males), marginal zone lymphoma, hairy cell leukemia, and mycosis fungoides. Like incidence, survival for both mature T-cell lymphomas and mature B-cell lymphomas varied by subtype and by race. Patients with peripheral T-cell lymphomas had among the worst 5-year relative survival (36%-56%, depending on race/sex), while those with mycosis fungoides had among the best survival (79%-92%). For B-cell lymphomas, 5-year survival ranged from 83% to 91% for patients with marginal zone lymphoma and from 78% to 92% for those with hairy cell leukemia; but the rates were as low as 47% to 63% for patients with Burkitt lymphoma and 44% to 48% for those with plasma cell neoplasms. In general, black men had the lowest survival across lymphoid malignancy subtypes. These contemporary incidence and survival statistics are useful for developing management strategies for these cancers and can offer clues regarding their etiology. CA Cancer J Clin 2016;66:443-459. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Novel Association of Genetic Markers Affecting CYP2A6 Activity and Lung Cancer Risk

Metabolism of nicotine by cytochrome P450 2A6 (CYP2A6) is a suspected determinant of smoking dose and, consequently, lung cancer risk. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of CYP2A6 activity, as measured by the urinary ratio of trans-3'-hydroxycotinine and its glucuronide conjugate over cotinine (total 3HCOT/COT), among 2,239 smokers in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) study. We identified 248 CYP2A6 variants associated with CYP2A6 activity (P < 5 × 10-8). CYP2A6 activity was correlated (r = 0.32; P < 0.0001) with total nicotine equivalents (a measure of nicotine uptake). When we examined the effect of these variants on lung cancer risk in the Transdisciplinary Research in Cancer of the Lung (TRICL) consortium GWAS dataset (13,479 cases and 43,218 controls), we found that the vast majority of these individual effects were directionally consistent and associated with an increased lung cancer risk. Two hundred and twenty-six of the 248 variants associated with CYP2A6 activity in the MEC were available in TRICL. Of them, 81% had directionally consistent risk estimates, and six were globally significantly associated with lung cancer. When conditioning on nine known functional variants and two deletions, the top two SNPs (rs56113850 in MEC and rs35755165 in TRICL) remained significantly associated with CYP2A6 activity in MEC and lung cancer in TRICL. The present data support the hypothesis that a greater CYP2A6 activity causes smokers to smoke more extensively and be exposed to higher levels of carcinogens, resulting in an increased risk for lung cancer. Although the variants identified in these studies may be used as risk prediction markers, the exact causal variants remain to be identified. Cancer Res; 76(19); 5768-76. ©2016 AACR.

[Update on molecular classifications and new histological classification of bladder cancer]

OBJECTIVE

Comment the new WHO histological classification of tumors of the urinary system and male genital organs 2016 and expose the state of art about urothelial carcinogenesis and molecular modifications of bladder cancer, with the consequences on the treatments.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

A systematic review of the literature search was performed from the data base PubMed, focused on the following keywords: "bladder cancer", "molecular", "subtypes".

RESULTS

The new WHO histological classification of tumors of the urinary system 2016 confirm the importance of pathology in determining the care of patients, especially the grade, the histological type and the infiltration, while taking into account the difficulties. In 2014, the Cancer Genome Atlas reported genetic modifications of bladder cancer. Recently, several studies explored molecular anomalies of bladder cancer and elaborated molecular classifications, analyzing their predictive value. According to the groups, different molecular subtype had been defined: Urobasal A, Urobasal B, genomically unstable, infiltrated, squamous cell carcinoma-like and p53-like luminal bladder cancers. This latter subgroup seems to be chemoresistant.

CONCLUSIONS

The molecular biology and classifications allow a better understanding of bladder cancer and could complete in near future histological data to improve patient management.

Pedigree based DNA sequencing pipeline for germline genomes of cancer families

BACKGROUND

In the course of our whole-genome sequencing efforts, we have developed a pipeline for analyzing germline genomes from Mendelian types of cancer pedigrees (familial cancer variant prioritization pipeline, FCVPP).

RESULTS

The variant calling step distinguishes two types of genomic variants: single nucleotide variants (SNVs) and indels, which undergo technical quality control. Mendelian types of variants are assumed to be rare and variants with frequencies higher that 0.1 % are screened out using human 1000 Genomes (Phase 3) and non-TCGA ExAC population data. Segregation in the pedigree allows variants to be present in affected family members and not in old, unaffected ones. The effectiveness of variant segregation depends on the number and relatedness of the family members: if over 5 third-degree (or more distant) relatives are available, the experience has shown that the number of likely variants is reduced from many hundreds to a few tens. These are then subjected to bioinformatics analysis, starting with the combined annotation dependent depletion (CADD) tool, which predicts the likelihood of the variant being deleterious. Different sets of individual tools are used for further evaluation of the deleteriousness of coding variants, 5' and 3' untranslated regions (UTRs), and intergenic variants.

CONLUSIONS

The likelihood of success of the present genomic pipeline in finding novel high- or medium-penetrant genes depends on many steps but first and foremost, the pedigree needs to be reasonably large and the assignments and diagnoses among the members need to be correct.

Familial Associations Between Prostate Cancer and Other Cancers

Prostate cancer (PCa) has a large familial component, but understanding of its genetic basis is fragmentary. Breast cancers may be associated with PCa, but whether this is true for other tumor types is poorly established. We used a novel approach to study familial associations of any type of cancer with PCa. We assessed the relative risk (RR) for all types of tumors as a function of the number of first-degree relatives diagnosed with PCa. We hypothesized that for a familial association to be real, the RR for a given type of cancer should increase with the number of PCa diagnoses. In families with multiple PCa patients, significantly increased risks were observed for female breast cancer (RR 1.37 for families with three men with PCa), kidney cancer (RR 2.32), nervous system tumors (RR 1.77; RR 2.40 when PCa was diagnosed before age 70 yr), and myeloma (RR 2.44; RR 6.29 when PCa was diagnosed before age 70 yr). Some evidence of association was also found for melanoma (RR 1.82) and endocrine tumors (RR 2.18). The consistency and magnitude of the effects suggest that familial PCa is genetically associated with breast, kidney, and nervous system tumors and myeloma. This suggestion has implications for clinical counseling and design of genetic studies.

PATIENT SUMMARY

It is known that prostate cancer runs in families, but it is not known whether other cancers are common in such families. We showed that at least breast, kidney, and nervous system tumors and myeloma occur more often than by chance.

Quality of life effects of androgen deprivation therapy in a prostate cancer cohort in New Zealand: can we minimize effects using a stratification based on the aldo-keto reductase family 1, member C3 rs12529 gene polymorphism?

BACKGROUND

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is an effective palliation treatment in men with advanced prostate cancer (PC). However, ADT has well documented side effects that could alter the patient's health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The current study aims to test whether a genetic stratification could provide better knowledge for optimising ADT options to minimize HRQoL effects.

METHODS

A cohort of 206 PC survivors (75 treated with and 131 without ADT) was recruited with written consent to collect patient characteristics, clinical data and HRQoL data related to PC management. The primary outcomes were the percentage scores under each HRQoL subscale assessed using the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life questionnaires (QLQ-C30 and PR25) and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales developed by the University of Melbourne, Australia. Genotyping of these men was carried out for the aldo-keto reductase family 1, member C3 (AKR1C3) rs12529 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). Analysis of HRQoL scores were carried out against ADT duration and in association with the AKR1C3 rs12529 SNP using the generalised linear model. P-values <0 · 05 were considered significant, and were further tested for restriction with Bonferroni correction.

RESULTS

Increase in hormone treatment-related effects were recorded with long-term ADT compared to no ADT. The C and G allele frequencies of the AKR1C3rs12529 SNP were 53·4 % and 46·6 % respectively. Hormone treatment-related symptoms showed an increase with ADT when associated with the AKR1C3 rs12529 G allele. Meanwhile, decreasing trends on cancer-specific symptoms and increased sexual interest were recorded with no ADT when associated with the AKR1C3 rs12529 G allele and reverse trends with the C allele. As higher incidence of cancer-specific symptoms relate to cancer retention it is possible that associated with the C allele there could be higher incidence of unresolved cancers under no ADT options.

CONCLUSIONS

If these findings can be reproduced in larger homogeneous cohorts, a genetic stratification based on the AKR1C3 rs12529 SNP, can minimize ADT-related HRQoL effects in PC patients. Our data additionally show that with this stratification it could also be possible to identify men needing ADT for better oncological advantage.

Genetic basis of PD-L1 overexpression in diffuse large B-cell lymphomas

Translocations between PD-L1 and the IGH locus represent a genetic mechanism of PD-L1 overexpression in DLBCL. Genetic alterations in the PD-L1/PDL-2 locus are mainly associated with the non-GCB subtype of DLBCL.

Developing and evaluating polygenic risk prediction models for stratified disease prevention

Knowledge of genetics and its implications for human health is rapidly evolving in accordance with recent events, such as discoveries of large numbers of disease susceptibility loci from genome-wide association studies, the US Supreme Court ruling of the non-patentability of human genes, and the development of a regulatory framework for commercial genetic tests. In anticipation of the increasing relevance of genetic testing for the assessment of disease risks, this Review provides a summary of the methodologies used for building, evaluating and applying risk prediction models that include information from genetic testing and environmental risk factors. Potential applications of models for primary and secondary disease prevention are illustrated through several case studies, and future challenges and opportunities are discussed.

Familial Risk and Heritability of Cancer Among Twins in Nordic Countries

IMPORTANCE

Estimates of familial cancer risk from population-based studies are essential components of cancer risk prediction.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate familial risk and heritability of cancer types in a large twin cohort.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective study of 80,309 monozygotic and 123,382 same-sex dizygotic twin individuals (N = 203,691) within the population-based registers of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Twins were followed up a median of 32 years between 1943 and 2010. There were 50,990 individuals who died of any cause, and 3804 who emigrated and were lost to follow-up.

EXPOSURES

Shared environmental and heritable risk factors among pairs of twins.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was incident cancer. Time-to-event analyses were used to estimate familial risk (risk of cancer in an individual given a twin's development of cancer) and heritability (proportion of variance in cancer risk due to interindividual genetic differences) with follow-up via cancer registries. Statistical models adjusted for age and follow-up time, and accounted for censoring and competing risk of death.

RESULTS

A total of 27,156 incident cancers were diagnosed in 23,980 individuals, translating to a cumulative incidence of 32%. Cancer was diagnosed in both twins among 1383 monozygotic (2766 individuals) and 1933 dizygotic (2866 individuals) pairs. Of these, 38% of monozygotic and 26% of dizygotic pairs were diagnosed with the same cancer type. There was an excess cancer risk in twins whose co-twin was diagnosed with cancer, with estimated cumulative risks that were an absolute 5% (95% CI, 4%-6%) higher in dizygotic (37%; 95% CI, 36%-38%) and an absolute 14% (95% CI, 12%-16%) higher in monozygotic twins (46%; 95% CI, 44%-48%) whose twin also developed cancer compared with the cumulative risk in the overall cohort (32%). For most cancer types, there were significant familial risks and the cumulative risks were higher in monozygotic than dizygotic twins. Heritability of cancer overall was 33% (95% CI, 30%-37%). Significant heritability was observed for the cancer types of skin melanoma (58%; 95% CI, 43%-73%), prostate (57%; 95% CI, 51%-63%), nonmelanoma skin (43%; 95% CI, 26%-59%), ovary (39%; 95% CI, 23%-55%), kidney (38%; 95% CI, 21%-55%), breast (31%; 95% CI, 11%-51%), and corpus uteri (27%; 95% CI, 11%-43%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this long-term follow-up study among Nordic twins, there was significant excess familial risk for cancer overall and for specific types of cancer, including prostate, melanoma, breast, ovary, and uterus. This information about hereditary risks of cancers may be helpful in patient education and cancer risk counseling.