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Romero D, Olivero J, Real R, Guerrero JC. Applying fuzzy logic to assess the biogeographical risk of dengue in South America. Parasit Vectors 2019; 12:428. [PMID: 31488198 PMCID: PMC6727500 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3691-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2019] [Accepted: 08/28/2019] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over the last decade, reports about dengue cases have increase worldwide, which is particularly worrisome in South America due to the historic record of dengue outbreaks from the seventeenth century until the first half of the twentieth century. Dengue is a viral disease that involves insect vectors, namely Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, which implies that, to prevent and combat outbreaks, it is necessary to understand the set of ecological and biogeographical factors affecting both the vector species and the virus. METHODS We contribute with a methodology based on fuzzy logic that is helpful to disentangle the main factors that determine favorable environmental conditions for vectors and diseases. Using favorability functions as fuzzy logic modelling technique and the fuzzy intersection, union and inclusion as fuzzy operators, we were able to specify the territories at biogeographical risk of dengue outbreaks in South America. RESULTS Our results indicate that the distribution of Ae. aegypti mostly encompasses the biogeographical framework of dengue in South America, which suggests that this species is the principal vector responsible for the geographical extent of dengue cases in the continent. Nevertheless, the intersection between the favorability for dengue cases and the union of the favorability for any of the vector species provided a comprehensive map of the biogeographical risk for dengue. CONCLUSIONS Fuzzy logic is an appropriate conceptual and operational tool to tackle the nuances of the vector-illness biogeographical interaction. The application of fuzzy logic may be useful in decision-making by the public health authorities to prevent, control and mitigate vector-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Romero
- Laboratorio de Desarrollo Sustentable y Gestión Ambiental del Territorio (LDSGAT), Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales (IECA), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Iguá 4225, 11400 Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Jesús Olivero
- Departamento de Biología Animal, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Bulevar Louis Pasteur, 31, 29010 Málaga, Spain
| | - Raimundo Real
- Departamento de Biología Animal, Grupo de Biogeografía, Diversidad y Conservación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Bulevar Louis Pasteur, 31, 29010 Málaga, Spain
| | - José Carlos Guerrero
- Laboratorio de Desarrollo Sustentable y Gestión Ambiental del Territorio (LDSGAT), Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales (IECA), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Iguá 4225, 11400 Montevideo, Uruguay
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102
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Jayaraj VJ, Avoi R, Gopalakrishnan N, Raja DB, Umasa Y. Developing a dengue prediction model based on climate in Tawau, Malaysia. Acta Trop 2019; 197:105055. [PMID: 31185224 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2019.105055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2019] [Revised: 06/03/2019] [Accepted: 06/04/2019] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is fast becoming the most urgent health issue in Malaysia, recording close to a 10-fold increase in cases over the last decade. With much uncertainty hovering over the recently introduced tetravalent vaccine and no effective antiviral drugs, vector control remains the most important strategy in combating dengue. This study analyses the relationship between weather predictors including its lagged terms, and dengue incidence in the District of Tawau over a period of 12 years, from 2006 to 2017. A forecasting model purposed to predict future outbreaks in Tawau was then developed using this data. Monthly dengue incidence data, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean relative humidity and mean rainfall over a period of 12 years from 2006 to 2017 in Tawau were retrieved from Tawau District Health Office and the Malaysian Meteorological Department. Cross-correlation analysis between weather predictors, lagged terms of weather predictors and dengue incidences established statistically significant cross-correlation between lagged periods of weather predictors-namely maximum temperature, mean relative humidity and mean rainfall with dengue incidence at time lags of 4-6 months. These variables were then employed into 3 different methods: a multivariate Poisson regression model, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and a SARIMA with external regressors for selection. Three models were selected but the SARIMA with external regressors model utilising maximum temperature at a lag of 6 months (p-value:0.001), minimum temperature at a lag of 4 months (p-value:0.01), mean relative humidity at a lag of 2 months (p-value:0.001), and mean rainfall at a lag of 6 months (p-value:0.001) produced an AIC of 841.94, and a log-likelihood score of -413.97 establishing it as the best fitting model of the methodologies utilised. In validating the models, they were utilised to develop forecasts with the model selected with the highest accuracy of predictions being the SARIMA model predicting 1 month in advance (MAE: 7.032, MSE: 83.977). This study establishes the effect of weather on the intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence as has been previously studied. A prediction model remains a novel method of evidence-based forecasting in Tawau, Sabah. The model developed in this study, demonstrated an ability to forecast potential dengue outbreaks 1 to 4 months in advance. These findings are not dissimilar to what has been previously studied in many different countries- with temperature and humidity consistently being established as powerful predictors of dengue incidence magnitude. When used in prognostication, it can enhance- decision making and allow judicious use of resources in public health setting. Nevertheless, the model remains a work in progress- requiring larger and more diverse data.
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103
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Franklinos LHV, Jones KE, Redding DW, Abubakar I. The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2019; 19:e302-e312. [PMID: 31227327 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(19)30161-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 212] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2018] [Revised: 02/19/2019] [Accepted: 03/21/2019] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
More than 80% of the global population is at risk of a vector-borne disease, with mosquito-borne diseases being the largest contributor to human vector-borne disease burden. Although many global processes, such as land-use and socioeconomic change, are thought to affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics, research to date has strongly focused on the role of climate change. Here, we show, through a review of contemporary modelling studies, that no consensus on how future changes in climatic conditions will impact mosquito-borne diseases exists, possibly due to interacting effects of other global change processes, which are often excluded from analyses. We conclude that research should not focus solely on the role of climate change but instead consider growing evidence for additional factors that modulate disease risk. Furthermore, future research should adopt new technologies, including developments in remote sensing and system dynamics modelling techniques, to enable a better understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lydia H V Franklinos
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK; Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Kate E Jones
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK; Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
| | - David W Redding
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK
| | - Ibrahim Abubakar
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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104
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Robert MA, Christofferson RC, Weber PD, Wearing HJ. Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change. Epidemics 2019; 28:100344. [PMID: 31175008 PMCID: PMC6791375 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.05.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2018] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 05/05/2019] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael A Robert
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Statistics, University of the Sciences, Philadelphia, PA, United States.
| | - Rebecca C Christofferson
- Department of Pathobiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States; Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
| | - Paula D Weber
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States
| | - Helen J Wearing
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States
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105
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Harris M, Caldwell JM, Mordecai EA. Climate drives spatial variation in Zika epidemics in Latin America. Proc Biol Sci 2019; 286:20191578. [PMID: 31455188 PMCID: PMC6732388 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2019.1578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Between 2015 and 2017, Zika virus spread rapidly through populations in the Americas with no prior exposure to the disease. Although climate is a known determinant of many Aedes-transmitted diseases, it is currently unclear whether climate was a major driver of the Zika epidemic and how climate might have differentially impacted outbreak intensity across locations within Latin America. Here, we estimated force of infection for Zika over time and across provinces in Latin America using a time-varying susceptible–infectious–recovered model. Climate factors explained less than 5% of the variation in weekly transmission intensity in a spatio-temporal model of force of infection by province over time, suggesting that week to week transmission within provinces may be too stochastic to predict. By contrast, climate and population factors were highly predictive of spatial variation in the presence and intensity of Zika transmission among provinces, with pseudo-R2 values between 0.33 and 0.60. Temperature, temperature range, rainfall and population size were the most important predictors of where Zika transmission occurred, while rainfall, relative humidity and a nonlinear effect of temperature were the best predictors of Zika intensity and burden. Surprisingly, force of infection was greatest in locations with temperatures near 24°C, much lower than previous estimates from mechanistic models, potentially suggesting that existing vector control programmes and/or prior exposure to other mosquito-borne diseases may have limited transmission in locations most suitable for Aedes aegypti, the main vector of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses in Latin America.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mallory Harris
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, 140 E Green St, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Jamie M Caldwell
- Biology Department, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Erin A Mordecai
- Biology Department, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA, USA
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106
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Sivan A, Shriram AN, Vanamail P, Sugunan AP. Impact of Temperature Variant on Survival of Aedes albopictus Skuse (Diptera: Culicidae): Implications on Thermotolerance and Acclimation. NEOTROPICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2019; 48:561-571. [PMID: 30977000 DOI: 10.1007/s13744-019-00680-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2018] [Accepted: 03/17/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894) is prevalent in the urban/peri-urban Port Blair, posing a public health threat, during past outbreaks of chikungunya (2006) and dengue (2010). Despite its vector potential, information on the biology is scanty. Therefore, impact of temperature on survival of immature stages, under laboratory conditions, was studied on F1 population of Andamans. Ae. albopictus larvae were exposed to static temperatures viz. 37°C, 39°C, 41°C, 43°C and 45°C, and the lethal time to cause 50% (LT50) and 90% mortality (LT90) was computed. To assess adaptive thermotolerance, larvae exposed (37°C and 39°C) were re-exposed to higher temperatures (43°C and 45°C). All larvae survived at 37°C and 39°C for the entire exposure period of 420 min, while variable mortality was observed at 41°C, 43°C and 45°C. Larvae re-exposed to 43°C and 45°C showed an increase in thermotolerance with respect to non-adapted larvae. The results are discussed in the context of survival, development and distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Sivan
- Medical Entomology and Vector Borne Diseases Address: Post, ICMR-Regional Medical Research Centre, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Govt of India, Post Bag No. 13, Dollygunj, Port Blair, Andaman Nicobar Islands, 744 101, India
| | - A N Shriram
- Unit of Vector Biology and Control, ICMR-Vector Control Research Centre, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Govt of India, Medical Complex, Indira Nagar, Puducherry, 605 006, India.
| | - P Vanamail
- Dept of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India
| | - A P Sugunan
- Epidemiology and Community Medicine, ICMR-Regional Medical Research Centre, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Govt of India, Post Bag No. 13, Dollygunj, Port Blair, Andaman Nicobar Islands, 744 101, India
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107
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Obolski U, Perez PN, Villabona‐Arenas CJ, Thézé J, Faria NR, Lourenço J. MVSE: An R-package that estimates a climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index. Methods Ecol Evol 2019; 10:1357-1370. [PMID: 32391139 PMCID: PMC7202302 DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2018] [Accepted: 04/23/2019] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
Viruses, such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya, depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies. While various alternative approaches have been proposed to estimate local transmission potential of such viruses, few open-source, ready to use and freely available software tools exist.We developed the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. MVSE estimates the index P, a novel suitability index based on a climate-driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number of mosquito-borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, the index P can be estimated for specific host and viral species in different regions of the globe.We describe the background theory, empirical support and biological interpretation of the index P. Using real-world examples spanning multiple epidemiological contexts, we further demonstrate MVSE's basic functionality, research and educational potentials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uri Obolski
- School of Public HealthTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
- Porter School of the Environment and Earth SciencesTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
| | - Pablo N. Perez
- Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - Christian J. Villabona‐Arenas
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious DiseasesDepartment of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, LondonSchool of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | - Julien Thézé
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
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108
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Thabet HS, Fawaz EY, Badziklou K, Tag ElDin RA, Kaldas RM, Fahmy NT, Tamekloe TA, Kere-Banla A, Diclaro JW. Preliminary Screening of Mosquito Spatial Distribution in Togo: With Special Focus on the Aedes (Diptera: Culicidae) Species. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2019; 56:1154-1158. [PMID: 30927005 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjz029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The Togolese Republic has a tropical and humid climate which constitutes an ideal environment for mosquitoes to breed and transmit diseases. The Aedes mosquito is known to transmit yellow fever (YF), dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in West Africa. Togo has been suffering from YF virus transmission, despite vaccination efforts. Unfortunately, there is scarcity in the data that reflect mosquito spatial distribution in Togo, specifically possible YF vectors. In the current study, mosquito surveillance efforts targeted areas with confirmed YF cases between July and August 2012. Indoor mosquitoes were collected using knockdown insecticide spraying, whereas Biogents (BG) traps were used to collect outdoor mosquito adults. Mosquito larval surveillance was conducted as well. In total, 17 species were identified. This investigation revealed the presence of medically important vectors in Togo, especially the Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Culicidae) which was collected in the four regions. Screening of all pools of female Aedes mosquitoes for YF, by real-time PCR, showed negative results. This is the first record for Coquillettidia flavocincta (Edwards) (Diptera: Culicidae) species in West Africa. This preliminary work serves as a baseline for further mosquito distribution studies in Togo.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hala S Thabet
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3), U.S. Agency for International Development, Maadi, Cairo, Egypt
- Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Emadeldin Y Fawaz
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3), U.S. Agency for International Development, Maadi, Cairo, Egypt
| | | | - Reham A Tag ElDin
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3), U.S. Agency for International Development, Maadi, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Rania M Kaldas
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3), U.S. Agency for International Development, Maadi, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Nermeen T Fahmy
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3), U.S. Agency for International Development, Maadi, Cairo, Egypt
| | | | | | - Joseph W Diclaro
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3), U.S. Agency for International Development, Maadi, Cairo, Egypt
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109
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Abstract
Dengue fever (DF) is a national health problem in Pakistan. It has become endemic in Lahore after its recent reemergence in 2016. This study investigates the impacts of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on DF transmission in the district of Lahore through statistical approaches. Initially, the climatic variability was explored using a time series analysis on climatic factors from 1970 to 2012. Furthermore, ordinary and multiple linear regression analyses were used to measure the simulating effect of climatic factors on dengue incidence from 2007 to 2012. The time series analysis revealed significant annual and monthly variability in climatic factors, which shaped a dengue-supporting environment. It also showed a positive temporal relationship between climatic factors and DF. Moreover, the regression analyses revealed a substantial monthly relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence. The ordinary linear regression of rainfall versus dengue showed monthly R2 = 34.2%, whereas temperature versus dengue presented R2 = 38.0%. The multiple regression analysis showed a monthly significance of R2 = 44.6%. Consequently, our study shows a substantial synergism between dengue and climatic factors in Lahore. The present study could help in unveiling new ways for health prediction modeling of dengue and might be applicable in other subtropical and temperate climates.
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110
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Masri S, Jia J, Li C, Zhou G, Lee MC, Yan G, Wu J. Use of Twitter data to improve Zika virus surveillance in the United States during the 2016 epidemic. BMC Public Health 2019; 19:761. [PMID: 31200692 PMCID: PMC6570872 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-7103-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2018] [Accepted: 06/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging mosquito-borne arbovirus that can produce serious public health consequences. In 2016, ZIKV caused an epidemic in many countries around the world, including the United States. ZIKV surveillance and vector control is essential to combating future epidemics. However, challenges relating to the timely publication of case reports significantly limit the effectiveness of current surveillance methods. In many countries with poor infrastructure, established systems for case reporting often do not exist. Previous studies investigating the H1N1 pandemic, general influenza and the recent Ebola outbreak have demonstrated that time- and geo-tagged Twitter data, which is immediately available, can be utilized to overcome these limitations. METHODS In this study, we employed a recently developed system called Cloudberry to filter a random sample of Twitter data to investigate the feasibility of using such data for ZIKV epidemic tracking on a national and state (Florida) level. Two auto-regressive models were calibrated using weekly ZIKV case counts and zika tweets in order to estimate weekly ZIKV cases 1 week in advance. RESULTS While models tended to over-predict at low case counts and under-predict at extreme high counts, a comparison of predicted versus observed weekly ZIKV case counts following model calibration demonstrated overall reasonable predictive accuracy, with an R2 of 0.74 for the Florida model and 0.70 for the U.S. MODEL Time-series analysis of predicted and observed ZIKV cases following internal cross-validation exhibited very similar patterns, demonstrating reasonable model performance. Spatially, the distribution of cumulative ZIKV case counts (local- & travel-related) and zika tweets across all 50 U.S. states showed a high correlation (r = 0.73) after adjusting for population. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates the value of utilizing Twitter data for the purposes of disease surveillance. This is of high value to epidemiologist and public health officials charged with protecting the public during future outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shahir Masri
- Program in Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Uniersity of California, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Jianfeng Jia
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Chen Li
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Guofa Zhou
- Program in Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Uniersity of California, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Ming-Chieh Lee
- Program in Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Uniersity of California, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Guiyun Yan
- Program in Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Uniersity of California, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Jun Wu
- Program in Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Uniersity of California, Irvine, California, USA.
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111
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Messina JP, Brady OJ, Golding N, Kraemer MUG, Wint GRW, Ray SE, Pigott DM, Shearer FM, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Davis Weaver N, Gilbert M, Velayudhan R, Jones P, Jaenisch T, Scott TW, Reiner RC, Hay SI. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue. Nat Microbiol 2019; 4:1508-1515. [PMID: 31182801 PMCID: PMC6784886 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 498] [Impact Index Per Article: 99.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2018] [Accepted: 05/01/2019] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk. Statistical mapping techniques provide insights into the current geographical spread of the mosquito-borne dengue virus infection and predict changes in the areas that will be environmentally suitable to the virus for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane P Messina
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. .,School of Interdisciplinary Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nick Golding
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.,Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.,Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - G R William Wint
- Environmental Research Group Oxford, c/o Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sarah E Ray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Freya M Shearer
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kimberly Johnson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lucas Earl
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Laurie B Marczak
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shreya Shirude
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nicole Davis Weaver
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | - Peter Jones
- Waen Associates Ltd, Y Waen, Islaw'r Dref, Dolgellau, Gwynedd, UK
| | - Thomas Jaenisch
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Section Clinical Tropical Medicine, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Thomas W Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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112
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Reiner RC, Stoddard ST, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Astete H, Perkins TA, Sihuincha M, Stancil JD, Smith DL, Kochel TJ, Halsey ES, Kitron U, Morrison AC, Scott TW. Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007255. [PMID: 31145744 PMCID: PMC6542505 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2018] [Accepted: 02/21/2019] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally. Despite the growing threat of arboviruses, there is a dearth of ‘best practices’ for the primary vector control tools used in the field. In the absence of cluster randomized control trials, evidence on the utility (or lack thereof) of vector control interventions must be gleaned from ongoing control programs. Motivated by 12 years of household-level Ae. aegypti abundance surveys and neighborhood-level space-spray campaign data from Iquitos, Peru, we developed a new framework to model mosquito abundance. In spite of significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity, we identified a statistically significant and practically important impact of the local Ministry of Health space-spray campaign, specifically, a reduction of mosquito abundance of 67% when coverage was optimal. Our framework can be directly applied to other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data and our findings can be used to both optimize resources within Iquitos as well as inform future vector-control interventions in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert C. Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Department of Global Health, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, WA, United States of America
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Steven T. Stoddard
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo M. Vazquez-Prokopec
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | | | - T. Alex Perkins
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States of America
| | | | | | - David L. Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Department of Global Health, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, WA, United States of America
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
| | | | | | - Uriel Kitron
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit N0.6, Lima, Peru
- Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States of America
- Department of Entomology, University of California, Davis, CA, United States of America
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Liu-Helmersson J, Rocklöv J, Sewe M, Brännström Å. Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 172:693-699. [PMID: 30884421 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2018] [Revised: 02/15/2019] [Accepted: 02/16/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change allows Aedes aegypti to infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits -- e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever - to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012-13. OBJECTIVE We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control. METHODS We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5). RESULTS In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti. CONCLUSION Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Liu-Helmersson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Heidelberg University Medical School, Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Macquin Sewe
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Åke Brännström
- Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Evolution and Ecology Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
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114
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Climate change and the rising infectiousness of dengue. Emerg Top Life Sci 2019; 3:133-142. [PMID: 33523146 PMCID: PMC7288996 DOI: 10.1042/etls20180123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2019] [Revised: 03/22/2019] [Accepted: 03/28/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
The disease burden of dengue has been steadily rising over the last half-century due to a multitude of factors, including global trade and travel, urbanization, population growth, and climate variability and change, that facilitate conductive conditions for the proliferation of dengue vectors and viruses. This review describes how climate, specifically temperature, affects the vectors’ ability to cause and sustain outbreaks, and how the infectiousness of dengue is influenced by climatic change. The review is focused on the core concepts and frameworks derived in the area of epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases and outlines the sensitivity of vectorial capacity and vector-to-human transmission on climatic conditions. It further reviews studies linking mathematical or statistical models of disease transmission to scenarios of projected climate change and provides recommendations for future research directions.
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115
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Stephenson EB, Murphy AK, Jansen CC, Peel AJ, McCallum H. Interpreting mosquito feeding patterns in Australia through an ecological lens: an analysis of blood meal studies. Parasit Vectors 2019; 12:156. [PMID: 30944025 PMCID: PMC6448275 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3405-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2018] [Accepted: 03/20/2019] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Mosquito-borne pathogens contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, infecting millions of people each year. Mosquito feeding is critical to the transmission dynamics of pathogens, and thus it is important to understanding and interpreting mosquito feeding patterns. In this paper we explore mosquito feeding patterns and their implications for disease ecology through a meta-analysis of published blood meal results collected across Australia from more than 12,000 blood meals from 22 species. To assess mosquito-vertebrate associations and identify mosquitoes on a spectrum of generalist or specialist feeders, we analysed blood meal data in two ways; first using a novel odds ratio analysis, and secondly by calculating Shannon’s diversity scores. Results We find that each mosquito species had a unique feeding association with different vertebrates, suggesting species-specific feeding patterns. Broadly, mosquito species could be grouped broadly into those that were primarily ornithophilic and those that fed more often on livestock. Aggregated feeding patterns observed across Australia were not explained by intrinsic variables such as mosquito genetics or larval habitats. We discuss the implications for disease transmission by vector mosquito species classified as generalist-feeders (such as Aedes vigilax and Culex annulirostris), or specialists (such as Aedes aegypti) in light of potential influences on mosquito host choice. Conclusions Overall, we find that whilst existing blood meal studies in Australia are useful for investigating mosquito feeding patterns, standardisation of blood meal study methodologies and analyses, including the incorporation of vertebrate surveys, would improve predictions of the impact of vector-host interactions on disease ecology. Our analysis can also be used as a framework to explore mosquito-vertebrate associations, in which host availability data is unavailable, in other global systems. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3405-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eloise B Stephenson
- Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, 4111, Australia.
| | | | - Cassie C Jansen
- Communicable Diseases Branch, Department of Health, Queensland Government, Herston, QLD, 4006, Australia
| | - Alison J Peel
- Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, 4111, Australia
| | - Hamish McCallum
- Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, 4111, Australia
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Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007213. [PMID: 30921321 PMCID: PMC6438455 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 337] [Impact Index Per Article: 67.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2018] [Accepted: 02/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
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Oidtman RJ, Lai S, Huang Z, Yang J, Siraj AS, Reiner RC, Tatem AJ, Perkins TA, Yu H. Inter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1148. [PMID: 30850598 PMCID: PMC6408462 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09035-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2018] [Accepted: 02/12/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases display wide inter-annual variation in seasonal epidemic size due to their complex dependence on temporally variable environmental conditions and other factors. In 2014, Guangzhou, China experienced its worst dengue epidemic on record, with incidence exceeding the historical average by two orders of magnitude. To disentangle contributions from multiple factors to inter-annual variation in epidemic size, we fitted a semi-mechanistic model to time series data from 2005-2015 and performed a series of factorial simulation experiments in which seasonal epidemics were simulated under all combinations of year-specific patterns of four time-varying factors: imported cases, mosquito density, temperature, and residual variation in local conditions not explicitly represented in the model. Our results indicate that while epidemics in most years were limited by unfavorable conditions with respect to one or more factors, the epidemic in 2014 was made possible by the combination of favorable conditions for all factors considered in our analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel J Oidtman
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, 46556, IN, USA
| | - Shengjie Lai
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 200032, China
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
- Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, SE-11355, Sweden
| | - Zhoujie Huang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Juan Yang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Amir S Siraj
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, 46556, IN, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health and Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, WA, USA
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
- Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, SE-11355, Sweden
| | - T Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, 46556, IN, USA.
| | - Hongjie Yu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, 200032, China.
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118
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Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Nat Microbiol 2019; 4:854-863. [PMID: 30833735 PMCID: PMC6522366 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 536] [Impact Index Per Article: 107.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2018] [Accepted: 01/18/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally. Statistical mapping techniques provide insights into the spread of two key arbovirus vectors in Europe and the United States, and predict the future distributions of both mosquitoes in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change.
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119
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Brady OJ, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Kassebaum NJ, Ray SE, de Araújo VEM, da Nóbrega AA, Frutuoso LCV, Lecca RCR, Stevens A, Zoca de Oliveira B, de Lima JM, Bogoch II, Mayaud P, Jaenisch T, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Hay SI, Reiner RC, Marinho F. The association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil 2015-2017: An observational analysis of over 4 million births. PLoS Med 2019; 16:e1002755. [PMID: 30835728 PMCID: PMC6400331 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2018] [Accepted: 01/28/2019] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS We merged data from multiple national reporting databases in Brazil to estimate exposure to 9 known or hypothesized causes of microcephaly for every pregnancy nationwide since the beginning of the ZIKV outbreak; this generated between 3.6 and 5.4 million cases (depending on analysis) over the time period 1 January 2015-23 May 2017. The association between ZIKV and microcephaly was statistically tested against models with alternative causes or with effect modifiers. We found no evidence for alternative non-ZIKV causes of the 2015-2017 microcephaly outbreak, nor that concurrent exposure to arbovirus infection or vaccination modified risk. We estimate an absolute risk of microcephaly of 40.8 (95% CI 34.2-49.3) per 10,000 births and a relative risk of 16.8 (95% CI 3.2-369.1) given ZIKV infection in the first or second trimester of pregnancy; however, because ZIKV infection rates were highly variable, most pregnant women in Brazil during the ZIKV outbreak will have been subject to lower risk levels. Statistically significant associations of ZIKV with other birth defects were also detected, but at lower relative risks than that of microcephaly (relative risk < 1.5). Our analysis was limited by missing data prior to the establishment of nationwide ZIKV surveillance, and its findings may be affected by unmeasured confounding causes of microcephaly not available in routinely collected surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS This study strengthens the evidence that congenital ZIKV infection, particularly in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy, is associated with microcephaly and less frequently with other birth defects. The finding of no alternative causes for geographic differences in microcephaly rate leads us to hypothesize that the Northeast region was disproportionately affected by this Zika outbreak, with 94% of an estimated 8.5 million total cases occurring in this region, suggesting a need for seroprevalence surveys to determine the underlying reason.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver J. Brady
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- * E-mail: (OJB); (FM)
| | - Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Nicholas J. Kassebaum
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Anesthesiology & Pain Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Sarah E. Ray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | | | - Aglaêr A. da Nóbrega
- Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health of Brazil, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Livia C. V. Frutuoso
- Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health of Brazil, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Roberto C. R. Lecca
- Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health of Brazil, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Antony Stevens
- Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health of Brazil, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - José M. de Lima
- Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health of Brazil, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Isaac I. Bogoch
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of General Internal Medicine, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Philippe Mayaud
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas Jaenisch
- Section of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Ali H. Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Christopher J. L. Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Robert C. Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Fatima Marinho
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health of Brazil, Brasília, Brazil
- * E-mail: (OJB); (FM)
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Abstract
Climate change is already expanding the geographic footprint of arboviral infections. In this article we consider the impact of climate change on three arboviruses with particular consideration of the effect on Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- James Whitehorn
- Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sophie Yacoub
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
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121
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Wang X, Tang S, Wu J, Xiao Y, Cheke RA. A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China. Parasit Vectors 2019; 12:45. [PMID: 30665469 PMCID: PMC6341621 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3295-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2018] [Accepted: 01/07/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background China’s Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models. Methods A multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and human case data, was used to examine the integrative effect of temperature and precipitation variation on the effective reproduction number (ERN) of dengue fever. Results With temperature in the range of 25–30 °C, increasing precipitation leads to an increase in the ERN with an average lag of 10 days. With monthly precipitation fixed, the more regular the pattern of rainfall (i.e. higher numbers of rainy days), the larger is the total number of adult mosquitoes. A rainfall distribution peaking in June and July produces a large ERN, beneficial to transmission. Climate conditions conducive to major outbreaks within a season are a combination of relatively high temperature, high precipitation peaking in June and July, and uninterrupted drizzle or regular rainfall. Conclusions Evaluating a set of weather conditions favourable to a future major dengue outbreak requires near-future prediction of temperature variation, total rainfall and its peaking times. Such information permits seasonal rapid response management decisions due to the lags between the precipitation events and the realisation of the ERN. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3295-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xia Wang
- School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China
| | - Sanyi Tang
- School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute for Health Research, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Yanni Xiao
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China
| | - Robert A Cheke
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich at Medway, Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime, Kent, ME4 4TB, UK. .,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine (St Mary's campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.
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Kamal M, Kenawy MA, Rady MH, Khaled AS, Samy AM. Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0210122. [PMID: 30596764 PMCID: PMC6312308 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0210122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 116] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2018] [Accepted: 12/17/2018] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still require to better understand the current distributions and possible future shifts of their vectors for successful surveillance and control programs. Few studies assessed the influences of climate change on the spatial distributional patterns and abundance of these important vectors, particularly using the most recent climatic scenarios. Here, we updated the current potential distributions of both vectors and assessed their distributional changes under future climate conditions. METHODS We used ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the potential distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus under present-day and future climate conditions. This approach fits ecological niche model from occurrence records of each species and environmental variables. For each species, future projections were based on climatic data from 9 general circulation models (GCMs) for each representative concentration pathway (RCP) in each time period, with a total of 72 combinations in four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. All ENMs were tested using the partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) and a set of 2,048 and 2,003 additional independent records for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Finally, we used background similarity test to assess the similarity between the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. RESULTS The predicted potential distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus coincided with the current and historical known distributions of both species. Aedes aegypti showed a markedly broader distributional potential across tropical and subtropical regions than Ae. albopictus. Interestingly, Ae. albopictus was markedly broader in distributional potential across temperate Europe and the United States. All ecological niche models (ENMs) were statistically robust (P < 0.001). ENMs successfully anticipated 98% (1,999/2,048) and 99% (1,985/2,003) of additional independent records for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively (P < 0.001). ENMs based on future conditions showed similarity between the overall distributional patterns of future-day and present-day conditions; however, there was a northern range expansion in the continental USA to include parts of Southern Canada in case of Ae. albopictus in both 2050 and 2070. Future models also anticipated further expansion of Ae. albopictus to the East to include most of Europe in both time periods. Aedes aegypti was anticipated to expand to the South in East Australia in 2050 and 2070. The predictions showed differences in distributional potential of both species between diverse RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Finally, the background similarity test comparing the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was unable to reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity between both species (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION These updated maps provided details to better guide surveillance and control programs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They have also significant public health importance as a baseline for predicting the emergence of arboviral diseases transmitted by both vectors in new areas across the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahmoud Kamal
- Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, Egypt
- * E-mail: , (MK); (AMS)
| | - Mohamed A. Kenawy
- Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Magda Hassan Rady
- Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Amany Soliman Khaled
- Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, Egypt
- Research and Training Center on Vectors of Diseases, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Abdallah M. Samy
- Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo, Egypt
- * E-mail: , (MK); (AMS)
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Moretti R, Marzo GA, Lampazzi E, Calvitti M. Cytoplasmic incompatibility management to support Incompatible Insect Technique against Aedes albopictus. Parasit Vectors 2018; 11:649. [PMID: 30583743 PMCID: PMC6304776 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-018-3208-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The transinfection of the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia provides a method to produce functionally sterile males to be used to suppress mosquito vectors. ARwP is a wPip Wolbachia infected Aedes albopictus which exhibits a bidirectional incompatibility pattern with wild-types. We coupled a modelistic approach with laboratory experiments to test ARwP as a control tool and evaluate the possible occurrence of population replacement following the release of ARwP females in a wild-type (SANG) population. Repeated male-only releases were simulated and tested in the laboratory in comparison with releases contaminated with 1% ARwP females. Model simulations also investigated how migration affects the outcome of contaminated releases. Finally, the mean level of egg fertility and the long-term evolution of populations constituted by two Wolbachia infection types were studied by testing SANG and ARwP Ae. albopictus and performing more general model simulations. Results The model was parametrized with laboratory data and simulations were compared with results of biological trials. Small populations of ARwP males and females were theoretically and experimentally demonstrated to rapidly become extinct when released in larger SANG populations. Male-only releases at a 5:1 ratio with respect to the wild-type males led to a complete suppression of the SANG population in a few generations. Contaminated releases were efficient as well but led to population replacement in the long term, when the wild-type population approached eradication. Migration significantly contrasted this trend as a 5% population turnover was sufficient to avoid any risk of population replacement. At equal frequencies between ARwP and SANG individuals, the mean egg fertility of the overall population was more than halved and suppression was self-sustaining until one of the two infection types extinguished. Conclusions In the case of bidirectional incompatibility patterns, the repeated release of incompatible males with small percentages of contaminant females could lead to population replacement in confined environments while it could be managed to target high efficiency and sustainability in wild-type suppression when systems are open to migration. This possibility is discussed based on various contexts and taking into consideration the possibility of integration with other control methods such as SIT and the use of larvicides. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3208-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riccardo Moretti
- Biotechnology and Agroindustry Division, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development), Casaccia Research Center, Rome, Italy.
| | - Giuseppe Augusto Marzo
- Technologies and Facilities for Nuclear Fission and Nuclear Material Management, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development), Casaccia Research Center, Rome, Italy
| | - Elena Lampazzi
- Biotechnology and Agroindustry Division, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development), Casaccia Research Center, Rome, Italy
| | - Maurizio Calvitti
- Biotechnology and Agroindustry Division, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development), Casaccia Research Center, Rome, Italy
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124
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Gunawardana SA, Shaw RH. Cross-reactive dengue virus-derived monoclonal antibodies to Zika virus envelope protein: Panacea or Pandora's box? BMC Infect Dis 2018; 18:641. [PMID: 30526531 PMCID: PMC6288897 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-018-3572-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2018] [Accepted: 11/30/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue Virus (DENV) and Zika Virus (ZIKV) are closely related flaviviruses, circulating in overlapping geographical regions. The recent ZIKV epidemic has been linked to an explosion in reports of microcephaly and neurological defects. It is conceivable that our knowledge of DENV might potentiate the development of a ZIKV vaccine due to the close phylogenetic relationship between these flaviviruses and cross-reactive antibodies, principally to the envelope protein (E protein). Alternatively, cross-reactive antibodies that are generated following vaccination or infection, might become damaging during subsequent infections. Main body The aims of this review are to collate and analyse data from a recent series of DENV-derived monoclonal antibody (mAb) panels from different research groups. These panels measured DENV-mAb activity against ZIKV in terms of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and neutralisation. Methodology used across groups was compared and critiqued. Furthermore, the specific antibody targets on E protein were considered and their therapeutic potential evaluated. Shortcomings of hmAb panels suggest ADE may be over-estimated and neutralisation underestimated, as compared to clinical situations. It remains unknown whether preference of enhancement or neutralisation by antibodies to ZIKV E protein is dictated by quantitative aspects of antibody titre or epitope specific variation. Additionally, little is known about how duration between flavivirus reinfections affect secondary antibody response. Conclusion This review concludes that our current knowledge of cross-reactive antibodies to E protein is inadequate to anticipate the outcome of deploying an E protein based vaccine to regions co-infected by DENV and ZIKV.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Robert H Shaw
- Oxford University Hospitals, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, OX3 9DU, UK
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125
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Tennant W, Recker M. Robustness of the reproductive number estimates in vector-borne disease systems. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006999. [PMID: 30557351 PMCID: PMC6312349 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006999] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2018] [Revised: 12/31/2018] [Accepted: 11/14/2018] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The required efforts, feasibility and predicted success of an intervention strategy against an infectious disease are partially determined by its basic reproduction number, R0. In its simplest form R0 can be understood as the product of the infectious period, the number of infectious contacts and the per-contact transmission probability, which in the case of vector-transmitted diseases necessarily extend to the vector stages. As vectors do not usually recover from infection, they remain infectious for life, which places high significance on the vector's life expectancy. Current methods for estimating the R0 for a vector-borne disease are mostly derived from compartmental modelling frameworks assuming constant vector mortality rates. We hypothesised that some of the assumptions underlying these models can lead to unrealistic high vector life expectancies with important repercussions for R0 estimates. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Here we used a stochastic, individual-based model which allowed us to directly measure the number of secondary infections arising from one index case under different assumptions about vector mortality. Our results confirm that formulas based on age-independent mortality rates can overestimate R0 by nearly 100% compared to our own estimate derived from first principles. We further provide a correction factor that can be used with a standard R0 formula and adjusts for the discrepancies due to erroneous vector age distributions. CONCLUSION Vector mortality rates play a crucial role for the success and general epidemiology of vector-transmitted diseases. Many modelling efforts intrinsically assume these to be age-independent, which, as clearly demonstrated here, can lead to severe over-estimation of the disease's reproduction number. Our results thus re-emphasise the importance of obtaining field-relevant and species-dependent vector mortality rates, which in turn would facilitate more realistic intervention impact predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Warren Tennant
- Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, United Kingdom
| | - Mario Recker
- Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, United Kingdom
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126
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Kao YH, Eisenberg MC. Practical unidentifiability of a simple vector-borne disease model: Implications for parameter estimation and intervention assessment. Epidemics 2018; 25:89-100. [PMID: 29903539 PMCID: PMC6264791 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2017] [Revised: 05/18/2018] [Accepted: 05/24/2018] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Mathematical modeling has an extensive history in vector-borne disease epidemiology, and is increasingly used for prediction, intervention design, and understanding mechanisms. Many studies rely on parameter estimation to link models and data, and to tailor predictions and counterfactuals to specific settings. However, few studies have formally evaluated whether vector-borne disease models can properly estimate the parameters of interest given the constraints of a particular dataset. Identifiability analysis allows us to examine whether model parameters can be estimated uniquely-a lack of consideration of such issues can result in misleading or incorrect parameter estimates and model predictions. Here, we evaluate both structural (theoretical) and practical identifiability of a commonly used compartmental model of mosquito-borne disease, using the 2010 dengue epidemic in Taiwan as a case study. We show that while the model is structurally identifiable, it is practically unidentifiable under a range of human and mosquito time series measurement scenarios. In particular, the transmission parameters form a practically identifiable combination and thus cannot be estimated separately, potentially leading to incorrect predictions of the effects of interventions. However, in spite of the unidentifiability of the individual parameters, the basic reproduction number was successfully estimated across the unidentifiable parameter ranges. These identifiability issues can be resolved by directly measuring several additional human and mosquito life-cycle parameters both experimentally and in the field. While we only consider the simplest case for the model, we show that a commonly used model of vector-borne disease is unidentifiable from human and mosquito incidence data, making it difficult or impossible to estimate parameters or assess intervention strategies. This work illustrates the importance of examining identifiability when linking models with data to make predictions and inferences, and particularly highlights the importance of combining laboratory, field, and case data if we are to successfully estimate epidemiological and ecological parameters using models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu-Han Kao
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
| | - Marisa C Eisenberg
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States.
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127
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Betanzos-Reyes ÁF, Rodríguez MH, Romero-Martínez M, Sesma-Medrano E, Rangel-Flores H, Santos-Luna R. Association of dengue fever with Aedes spp. abundance and climatological effects. SALUD PUBLICA DE MEXICO 2018; 60:12-20. [PMID: 29689652 DOI: 10.21149/8141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2016] [Accepted: 03/15/2017] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To analyze the association of dengue fever incidence with Aedes mosquito's abundance, and the effect of climatological and geographical variables, in a region in Morelos State, Mexico. MATERIALS AND METHODS Weekly data during the period 2010 to 2014 was used. Mosquito abundance was determined using ovitraps. Confirmed dengue cases were obtained from the Epidemiological Surveillance System. Climatic variables were obtained from weather monitoringstations. The correlation between climate variables and ovitraps data was estimated using a multivariate regression model. RESULTS A correlation of mosquito abundance with dengue fever incidence, and a yearly pattern with seasonal variations were observed. The daily mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall parameters were associated with mosquito egg abundance. Time lags of three and four weeks between egg counts and dengue fever incidence were observed. CONCLUSION Time lags between egg counts and dengue incidence could be useful for prevention and control interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ángel Francisco Betanzos-Reyes
- Centro de Investigación sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | - Mario Henry Rodríguez
- Centro de Investigación sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | - Martín Romero-Martínez
- Centro de Investigación en Evaluación y Encuestas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Ciudad de México, México
| | - Eduardo Sesma-Medrano
- Coordinación de Enfermedades Transmitidas por Vectores, Secretaría de Salud de Morelos. Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | - Hilda Rangel-Flores
- Centro de Investigación sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | - René Santos-Luna
- Centro de Información para Decisiones en Salud Pública, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
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128
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Effects of the Environmental Temperature on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes: A Review. INSECTS 2018; 9:insects9040158. [PMID: 30404142 PMCID: PMC6316560 DOI: 10.3390/insects9040158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 160] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2018] [Revised: 10/25/2018] [Accepted: 10/31/2018] [Indexed: 01/23/2023]
Abstract
The temperature of the environment is one of the most important abiotic factors affecting the life of insects. As poikilotherms, their body temperature is not constant, and they rely on various strategies to minimize the risk of thermal stress. They have been thus able to colonize a large spectrum of habitats. Mosquitoes, such as Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, vector many pathogens, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. The spread of these diseases has become a major global health concern, and it is predicted that climate change will affect the mosquitoes’ distribution, which will allow these insects to bring new pathogens to naïve populations. We synthesize here the current knowledge on the impact of temperature on the mosquito flight activity and host-seeking behavior (1); ecology and dispersion (2); as well as its potential effect on the pathogens themselves and how climate can affect the transmission of some of these pathogens (3).
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129
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O'Reilly KM, Lowe R, Edmunds WJ, Mayaud P, Kucharski A, Eggo RM, Funk S, Bhatia D, Khan K, Kraemer MUG, Wilder-Smith A, Rodrigues LC, Brasil P, Massad E, Jaenisch T, Cauchemez S, Brady OJ, Yakob L. Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis. BMC Med 2018; 16:180. [PMID: 30285863 PMCID: PMC6169075 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-018-1158-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2018] [Accepted: 08/21/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries. METHODS Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories. RESULTS There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p < 0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathleen M O'Reilly
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGLOBAL), Barcelona, Spain
| | - W John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Philippe Mayaud
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Adam Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rosalind M Eggo
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sebastian Funk
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Deepit Bhatia
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.,Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Kamran Khan
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.,Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.,Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.,Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Annelies Wilder-Smith
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Medicine and Public Health, Umea University, Umea, Sweden.,Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Laura C Rodrigues
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Patricia Brasil
- Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas/Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Eduardo Massad
- School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Thomas Jaenisch
- Department for Infectious Diseases and Parasitology, Department for Infectious Diseases, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.,Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA3012, Paris, France.,Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Laith Yakob
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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130
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Roberts KE, Hadfield JD, Sharma MD, Longdon B. Changes in temperature alter the potential outcomes of virus host shifts. PLoS Pathog 2018; 14:e1007185. [PMID: 30339695 PMCID: PMC6209381 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1007185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2018] [Revised: 10/31/2018] [Accepted: 10/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Host shifts-where a pathogen jumps between different host species-are an important source of emerging infectious disease. With on-going climate change there is an increasing need to understand the effect changes in temperature may have on emerging infectious disease. We investigated whether species' susceptibilities change with temperature and ask if susceptibility is greatest at different temperatures in different species. We infected 45 species of Drosophilidae with an RNA virus and measured how viral load changes with temperature. We found the host phylogeny explained a large proportion of the variation in viral load at each temperature, with strong phylogenetic correlations between viral loads across temperature. The variance in viral load increased with temperature, while the mean viral load did not. This suggests that as temperature increases the most susceptible species become more susceptible, and the least susceptible less so. We found no significant relationship between a species' susceptibility across temperatures, and proxies for thermal optima (critical thermal maximum and minimum or basal metabolic rate). These results suggest that whilst the rank order of species susceptibilities may remain the same with changes in temperature, some species may become more susceptible to a novel pathogen, and others less so.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine E. Roberts
- Biosciences, College of Life & Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, United Kingdom
| | - Jarrod D. Hadfield
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Manmohan D. Sharma
- Biosciences, College of Life & Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, United Kingdom
| | - Ben Longdon
- Biosciences, College of Life & Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, United Kingdom
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131
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Dickens BL, Sun H, Jit M, Cook AR, Carrasco LR. Determining environmental and anthropogenic factors which explain the global distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. BMJ Glob Health 2018; 3:e000801. [PMID: 30233829 PMCID: PMC6135425 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2018-000801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2018] [Revised: 05/23/2018] [Accepted: 07/13/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Responsible for considerable global human morbidity and mortality, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of several important human diseases, including dengue and yellow fever. Although numerous variables that affect mosquito survival and reproduction have been recorded at the local and regional scales, many remain untested at the global level, potentially confounding mapping efforts to date. Methods We develop a modelling ensemble of boosted regression trees and maximum entropy models using sets of variables previously untested at the global level to examine their performance in predicting the global distribution of these two vectors. The results show that accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperature are consistently the strongest predictors of mosquito presence. Both vectors are similar in their response to accessibility and humidity, but exhibit individual profiles for temperature. Their mapped ranges are therefore similar except at peripheral latitudes, where the range of Ae. albopictus extends further, a finding consistent with ongoing trapping studies. We show that variables previously identified as being relevant, including maximum and mean temperatures, enhanced vegetation index, relative humidity and population density, are comparatively weak performers. Results The variables identified represent three key biological mechanisms. Cold tolerance is a critical biological parameter, controlling both species' distribution northwards, and to a lesser degree for Ae. albopictus which has consequent greater inland suitability in North America, Europe and East Asia. Absolute humidity restricts the distribution of both vectors from drier areas, where moisture availability is very low, and increases their suitability in coastal areas. The latter is exacerbated by accessibility with increased likelihood of vector importation due to greater potential for human and trade movement. Conclusion Accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperatures were the strongest and most robust global predictors of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus presence, which should be considered in control efforts and future distribution projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Borame Lee Dickens
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Haoyang Sun
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, London, UK
| | - Alex R Cook
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Luis Roman Carrasco
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore
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132
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Jiang D, Hao M, Ding F, Fu J, Li M. Mapping the transmission risk of Zika virus using machine learning models. Acta Trop 2018; 185:391-399. [PMID: 29932934 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.06.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2018] [Revised: 06/11/2018] [Accepted: 06/18/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Zika virus, which has been linked to severe congenital abnormalities, is exacerbating global public health problems with its rapid transnational expansion fueled by increased global travel and trade. Suitability mapping of the transmission risk of Zika virus is essential for drafting public health plans and disease control strategies, which are especially important in areas where medical resources are relatively scarce. Predicting the risk of Zika virus outbreak has been studied in recent years, but the published literature rarely includes multiple model comparisons or predictive uncertainty analysis. Here, three relatively popular machine learning models including backward propagation neural network (BPNN), gradient boosting machine (GBM) and random forest (RF) were adopted to map the probability of Zika epidemic outbreak at the global level, pairing high-dimensional multidisciplinary covariate layers with comprehensive location data on recorded Zika virus infection in humans. The results show that the predicted high-risk areas for Zika transmission are concentrated in four regions: Southeastern North America, Eastern South America, Central Africa and Eastern Asia. To evaluate the performance of machine learning models, the 50 modeling processes were conducted based on a training dataset. The BPNN model obtained the highest predictive accuracy with a 10-fold cross-validation area under the curve (AUC) of 0.966 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.965-0.967], followed by the GBM model (10-fold cross-validation AUC = 0.964[0.963-0.965]) and the RF model (10-fold cross-validation AUC = 0.963[0.962-0.964]). Based on training samples, compared with the BPNN-based model, we find that significant differences (p = 0.0258* and p = 0.0001***, respectively) are observed for prediction accuracies achieved by the GBM and RF models. Importantly, the prediction uncertainty introduced by the selection of absence data was quantified and could provide more accurate fundamental and scientific information for further study on disease transmission prediction and risk assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dong Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
| | - Mengmeng Hao
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
| | - Fangyu Ding
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
| | - Jingying Fu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
| | - Meng Li
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
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Misslin R, Vaguet Y, Vaguet A, Daudé É. Estimating air temperature using MODIS surface temperature images for assessing Aedes aegypti thermal niche in Bangkok, Thailand. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2018; 190:537. [PMID: 30132225 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-018-6875-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2017] [Accepted: 07/25/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Dengue, the most widespread urban vector-borne disease, is transmitted to human by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. Its distribution in urban areas is heterogeneous over time and space. In time, it is linked to seasonal variations such as warm and cold seasons, as well as rainy and dry seasons. In space, it is linked to social and environmental conditions, which alternate between rich and deprived neighborhoods, vegetated and densely built areas. These variations in terms of land cover can affect surface and air temperature. As a result of its influence on the mosquito's life cycle, temperature plays a crucial part in dengue epidemics potential. Thus, deciphering the thermal variations effects within cities could lead to the identification of precise thermal comfort zones, favorable to the survival of mosquito populations during inter-epidemic periods. The maps that could be produced as a result would enable health authorities to target specific areas. Most cities are equipped with meteorological stations. However, the network is generally not dense enough to precisely identify thermal comfort zones. Remote sensing can be used as a tool to solve this issue. The methodological objective of this paper is to assess the potential of the TVX (Temperature-Vegetation indeX) approach applied to MODIS thermal images for the purpose of estimating daily minimum and maximum air temperatures in the city of Bangkok, Thailand. The TVX approach has been seldom used over urban areas due to the heterogeneous nature of cities in terms of land cover. However, our study shows that in vegetated cities such as Bangkok, the TVX method provides valuable results which can be used to assess thermal niche of A. aegypti.
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Affiliation(s)
- Renaud Misslin
- CNRS UMR IDEES 6266, Université de Rouen, Rouen, France.
- INRA, LAE, Université de Lorraine, Colmar, France.
| | - Yvette Vaguet
- CNRS UMR IDEES 6266, Université de Rouen, Rouen, France
| | - Alain Vaguet
- CNRS UMR IDEES 6266, Université de Rouen, Rouen, France
| | - Éric Daudé
- CNRS UMR IDEES 6266, Université de Rouen, Rouen, France
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Auteri M, La Russa F, Blanda V, Torina A. Insecticide Resistance Associated with kdr Mutations in Aedes albopictus: An Update on Worldwide Evidences. BIOMED RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2018; 2018:3098575. [PMID: 30175124 PMCID: PMC6098900 DOI: 10.1155/2018/3098575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2018] [Accepted: 07/19/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Insecticide resistance is an increasing problem worldwide that limits the efficacy of control methods against several pests of health interest. Among them, Aedes albopictus mosquitoes are efficient vectors of relevant pathogens causing animal and human diseases worldwide, including yellow fever, chikungunya, dengue, and Zika. Different mechanisms are associated in conferring resistance to chemical insecticides. One of the most widespread and analysed mechanisms is the knockdown resistance (kdr) causing resistance to DDT and pyrethroids. The mechanism is associated with mutations in the voltage sensitive sodium channel, which is involved in beginning and propagation of action potentials in nervous cells. The mechanism was originally discovered in the housefly and then it was found in a large number of arthropods. In 2011, a kdr associated mutation was evidenced for the first time in A. albopictus and afterward several evidences were reported in the different areas of the world, including China, USA, Brazil, India, and Mediterranean Countries. This review aims to update and summarize current evidences on kdr in A. albopictus, in order to stimulate further researches to analyse in depth A. albopictus resistance status across the world, especially in countries where the presence of this vector is still an emerging issue. Such information is currently needed given the well-known vector role of A. albopictus in the transmission of severe infectious diseases. Furthermore, the widespread use of chemical insecticides for control strategies against A. albopictus progressively lead to pressure selection inducing the rise of insecticide resistance-related mutations in the species. Such event is especially evident in some countries as China, often related to a history of uncontrolled use of chemical insecticides. Thus, a careful picture on the diffusion of kdr mutations worldwide represents a milestone for the implementation of control plans and the triggering of novel research on alternative strategies for mosquito-borne infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michelangelo Auteri
- Laboratory of Entomology and Control of Environmental Vectors, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sicilia, Via Gino Marinuzzi 3, 90129 Palermo, Italy
| | - Francesco La Russa
- Laboratory of Entomology and Control of Environmental Vectors, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sicilia, Via Gino Marinuzzi 3, 90129 Palermo, Italy
| | - Valeria Blanda
- Laboratory of Entomology and Control of Environmental Vectors, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sicilia, Via Gino Marinuzzi 3, 90129 Palermo, Italy
| | - Alessandra Torina
- Laboratory of Entomology and Control of Environmental Vectors, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Sicilia, Via Gino Marinuzzi 3, 90129 Palermo, Italy
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Moretti R, Yen PS, Houé V, Lampazzi E, Desiderio A, Failloux AB, Calvitti M. Combining Wolbachia-induced sterility and virus protection to fight Aedes albopictus-borne viruses. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006626. [PMID: 30020933 PMCID: PMC6066253 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006626] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2018] [Revised: 07/30/2018] [Accepted: 06/21/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Among the strategies targeting vector control, the exploitation of the endosymbiont Wolbachia to produce sterile males and/or invasive females with reduced vector competence seems to be promising. A new Aedes albopictus transinfection (ARwP-M) was generated by introducing wMel Wolbachia in the ARwP line which had been established previously by replacing wAlbA and wAlbB Wolbachia with the wPip strain. Various infection and fitness parameters were studied by comparing ARwP-M, ARwP and wild-type (SANG population) Ae. albopictus sharing the same genetic background. Moreover, the vector competence of ARwP-M related to chikungunya, dengue and zika viruses was evaluated in comparison with ARwP. ARwP-M showed a 100% rate of maternal inheritance of wMel and wPip Wolbachia. Survival, female fecundity and egg fertility did not show to differ between the three Ae. albopictus lines. Crosses between ARwP-M males and SANG females were fully unfertile regardless of male age while egg hatch in reverse crosses increased from 0 to about 17% with SANG males aging from 3 to 17 days. When competing with SANG males for SANG females, ARwP-M males induced a level of sterility significantly higher than that expected for an equal mating competitiveness (mean Fried index of 1.71 instead of 1). The overall Wolbachia density in ARwP-M females was about 15 fold higher than in ARwP, mostly due to the wMel infection. This feature corresponded to a strongly reduced vector competence for chikungunya and dengue viruses (in both cases, 5 and 0% rates of transmission at 14 and 21 days post infection) with respect to ARwP females. Results regarding Zika virus did not highlight significant differences between ARwP-M and ARwP. However, none of the tested ARwP-M females was capable at transmitting ZIKV. These findings are expected to promote the exploitation of Wolbachia to suppress the wild-type Ae. albopictus populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riccardo Moretti
- Biotechnology and Agroindustry Division, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development), Casaccia Research Center, Rome, Italy
- * E-mail:
| | - Pei-Shi Yen
- Department of Virology, Institut Pasteur, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors Unit, Paris, France
| | - Vincent Houé
- Department of Virology, Institut Pasteur, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors Unit, Paris, France
| | - Elena Lampazzi
- Biotechnology and Agroindustry Division, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development), Casaccia Research Center, Rome, Italy
| | - Angiola Desiderio
- Biotechnology and Agroindustry Division, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development), Casaccia Research Center, Rome, Italy
| | - Anna-Bella Failloux
- Department of Virology, Institut Pasteur, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors Unit, Paris, France
| | - Maurizio Calvitti
- Biotechnology and Agroindustry Division, ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development), Casaccia Research Center, Rome, Italy
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Rossi G, Karki S, Smith RL, Brown WM, Ruiz MO. The spread of mosquito-borne viruses in modern times: A spatio-temporal analysis of dengue and chikungunya. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2018; 26:113-125. [PMID: 30390927 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2018.06.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2017] [Revised: 01/12/2018] [Accepted: 06/08/2018] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Since the 1970s, mosquito-borne pathogens have spread to previously disease-free areas, as well as causing increased illness in endemic areas. In particular, dengue and chikungunya viruses, transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti and secondarily by Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, represent a threat for up to a third of the world population, and are a growing public health concern. In this study, we assess the spatial and temporal factors related to the occurrences of historic dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in 76 nations focused geographically on the Indian Ocean, with outbreak data from 1959 to 2009. First, we describe the historical spatial and temporal patterns of outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in the focal nations. Second, we use a boosted regression tree approach to assess the statistical relationships of nations' concurrent outbreak occurrences and annual occurrences with their spatial proximity to prior infections and climatic and socio-economic characteristics. We demonstrate that higher population density and shorter distances among nations with outbreaks are the dominant factors that characterize both dengue and chikungunya outbreaks. In conclusion, our analysis provides crucial insights, which can be applied to improve nations' surveillance and preparedness for future vector-borne disease epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gianluigi Rossi
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA.
| | - Surendra Karki
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
| | - Rebecca Lee Smith
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
| | - William Marshall Brown
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
| | - Marilyn O'Hara Ruiz
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
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137
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Deka MA, Morshed N. Mapping Disease Transmission Risk of Nipah Virus in South and Southeast Asia. Trop Med Infect Dis 2018; 3:E57. [PMID: 30274453 PMCID: PMC6073609 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed3020057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2018] [Revised: 05/24/2018] [Accepted: 05/25/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Since 1998, Nipah virus (NiV) (genus: Henipavirus; family: Paramyxoviridae), an often-fatal and highly virulent zoonotic pathogen, has caused sporadic outbreak events. Fruit bats from the genus Pteropus are the wildlife reservoirs and have a broad distribution throughout South and Southeast Asia, and East Africa. Understanding the disease biogeography of NiV is critical to comprehending the potential geographic distribution of this dangerous zoonosis. This study implemented the R packages ENMeval and BIOMOD2 as a means of modeling regional disease transmission risk and additionally measured niche similarity between the reservoir Pteropus and the ecological characteristics of outbreak localities with the Schoener's D index and I statistic. Results indicate a relatively high degree of niche overlap between models in geographic and environmental space (D statistic, 0.64; and I statistic, 0.89), and a potential geographic distribution encompassing 19% (2,963,178 km²) of South and Southeast Asia. This study should contribute to current and future efforts to understand the critical ecological contributors and geography of NiV. Furthermore, this study can be used as a geospatial guide to identify areas of high disease transmission risk and to inform national public health surveillance programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark A Deka
- Department of Geography, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA.
| | - Niaz Morshed
- Department of Geography, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA.
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138
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Schmidt CA, Comeau G, Monaghan AJ, Williamson DJ, Ernst KC. Effects of desiccation stress on adult female longevity in Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): results of a systematic review and pooled survival analysis. Parasit Vectors 2018; 11:267. [PMID: 29695282 PMCID: PMC5918765 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-018-2808-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2017] [Accepted: 03/25/2018] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya are affected by the longevity of the adult female mosquito. Environmental conditions influence the survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes, the primary vectors of these viruses. While the association of temperature with Aedes mortality has been relatively well-explored, the role of humidity is less established. The current study’s goals were to compile knowledge of the influence of humidity on adult survival in the important vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, and to quantify this relationship while accounting for the modifying effect of temperature. Methods We performed a systematic literature review to identify studies reporting experimental results informing the relationships among temperature, humidity and adult survival in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Using a novel simulation approach to harmonize disparate survival data, we conducted pooled survival analyses via stratified and mixed effects Cox regression to estimate temperature-dependent associations between humidity and mortality risk for these species across a broad range of temperatures and vapor pressure deficits. Results After screening 1517 articles, 17 studies (one in semi-field and 16 in laboratory settings) met inclusion criteria and collectively reported results for 192 survival experiments. We review and synthesize relevant findings from these studies. Our stratified model estimated a strong temperature-dependent association of humidity with mortality in both species, though associations were not significant for Ae. albopictus in the mixed effects model. Lowest mortality risks were estimated around 27.5 °C and 21.5 °C for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively, and mortality increased non-linearly with decreasing humidity. Aedes aegypti had a survival advantage relative to Ae. albopictus in the stratified model under most conditions, but species differences were not significant in the mixed effects model. Conclusions Humidity is associated with mortality risk in adult female Ae. aegypti in controlled settings. Data are limited at low humidities, temperature extremes, and for Ae. albopictus, and further studies should be conducted to reduce model uncertainty in these contexts. Desiccation is likely an important factor in Aedes population dynamics and viral transmission in arid regions. Models of Aedes-borne virus transmission may be improved by more comprehensively representing humidity effects. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2808-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris A Schmidt
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave, Tucson, AZ, 85724, USA. .,National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA.
| | - Genevieve Comeau
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture & Life Sciences, University of Arizona, P.O. Box 210036, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Andrew J Monaghan
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA
| | - Daniel J Williamson
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture & Life Sciences, University of Arizona, P.O. Box 210036, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Kacey C Ernst
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave, Tucson, AZ, 85724, USA.,Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture & Life Sciences, University of Arizona, P.O. Box 210036, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
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Hamlet A, Jean K, Perea W, Yactayo S, Biey J, Van Kerkhove M, Ferguson N, Garske T. The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006284. [PMID: 29543798 PMCID: PMC5854243 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2017] [Accepted: 01/30/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF). Mosquito life cycle and viral replication in the mosquito are heavily dependent on climate, particularly temperature and rainfall. We aimed to assess whether seasonal variations in climatic factors are associated with the seasonality of YF reports. Methodology/Principal findings We constructed a temperature suitability index for YFV transmission, capturing the temperature dependence of mosquito behaviour and viral replication within the mosquito. We then fitted a series of multilevel logistic regression models to a dataset of YF reports across Africa, considering location and seasonality of occurrence for seasonal models, against the temperature suitability index, rainfall and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as covariates alongside further demographic indicators. Model fit was assessed by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and models were ranked by Akaike’s Information Criterion which was used to weight model outputs to create combined model predictions. The seasonal model accurately captured both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in YF transmission (AUC = 0.81), and did not perform significantly worse than the annual model which only captured the geographic distribution. The interaction between temperature suitability and rainfall accounted for much of the occurrence of YF, which offers a statistical explanation for the spatio-temporal variability in transmission. Conclusions/Significance The description of seasonality offers an explanation for heterogeneities in the West-East YF burden across Africa. Annual climatic variables may indicate a transmission suitability not always reflected in seasonal interactions. This finding, in conjunction with forecasted data, could highlight areas of increased transmission and provide insights into the occurrence of large outbreaks, such as those seen in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Brazil. In this article, we describe the development of a model to quantify the seasonal dynamics of yellow fever virus (YFV) transmission across Africa. YFV is a flavivirus transmitted, within Africa, primarily by Aedes spp where it causes an estimated 78,000 deaths a year despite the presence of a safe and effective vaccine. The importance of sufficient vaccination, made difficult by a global shortage, has been highlighted by recent large scale, devastating, outbreaks in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Brazil. Here we describe a novel way of parameterising the effect of temperature on YFV transmission and implement statistical models to predict both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in transmissions, while demonstrating their robustness in comparison to models simply predicting geographic distribution. We believe this quantification of seasonality could lead to more precise applications of vaccination campaigns and vector-control programmes. In turn this would help maximise their impact, especially vital with limited resources, and could contribute to lessening the risk of large scale outbreaks. Not only this, but the methods described here could be applied to other Aedes-borne diseases and as such provide a useful tool in understanding, and combatting, several other important diseases such as dengue and zika.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arran Hamlet
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Kévin Jean
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Laboratoire MESuRS, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France
| | - William Perea
- WHO, Infectious Hazard Management, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Joseph Biey
- WHO-AFRO, IST/WA, Ouagadougou, Burkina, Faso
| | - Maria Van Kerkhove
- WHO, Infectious Hazard Management, Geneva, Switzerland
- Centre for Global Health, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Neil Ferguson
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Tini Garske
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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140
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Lo D, Park B. Modeling the spread of the Zika virus using topological data analysis. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0192120. [PMID: 29438377 PMCID: PMC5810985 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2017] [Accepted: 01/18/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV), a disease spread primarily through the Aedes aegypti mosquito, was identified in Brazil in 2015 and was declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO). Epidemiologists often use common state-level attributes such as population density and temperature to determine the spread of disease. By applying techniques from topological data analysis, we believe that epidemiologists will be able to better predict how ZIKV will spread. We use the Vietoris-Rips filtration on high-density mosquito locations in Brazil to create simplicial complexes, from which we extract homology group generators. Previously epidemiologists have not relied on topological data analysis to model disease spread. Evaluating our model on ZIKV case data in the states of Brazil demonstrates the value of these techniques for the improved assessment of vector-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek Lo
- Department of Statistics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
- Department of Computer Science, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Briton Park
- Department of Statistics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
- Department of Mathematics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
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141
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Shearer FM, Longbottom J, Browne AJ, Pigott DM, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, Marinho F, Yactayo S, de Araújo VEM, da Nóbrega AA, Fullman N, Ray SE, Mosser JF, Stanaway JD, Lim SS, Reiner RC, Moyes CL, Hay SI, Golding N. Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis. LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2018; 6:e270-e278. [PMID: 29398634 PMCID: PMC5809716 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30024-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
Background Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. Methods We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide. Findings Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur. Interpretation Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Freya M Shearer
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Joshua Longbottom
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Annie J Browne
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David M Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Fatima Marinho
- University of State of Rio de Janeiro, Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Sergio Yactayo
- World Health Organization, Infectious Hazard Management, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Aglaêr A da Nóbrega
- Secretariat of Health Surveillance of the Ministry of Health of Brazil, Brazil
| | - Nancy Fullman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sarah E Ray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jonathan F Mosser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Seattle Children's Hospital/University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jeffrey D Stanaway
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Catherine L Moyes
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon I Hay
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Nick Golding
- Quantitative & Applied Ecology Group, School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
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142
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Ding F, Fu J, Jiang D, Hao M, Lin G. Mapping the spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Acta Trop 2018; 178:155-162. [PMID: 29191515 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.11.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2017] [Revised: 10/31/2017] [Accepted: 11/26/2017] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne infectious diseases, such as Rift Valley fever, Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika, have caused mass human death with the transnational expansion fueled by economic globalization. Simulating the distribution of the disease vectors is of great importance in formulating public health planning and disease control strategies. In the present study, we simulated the global distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus at a 5×5km spatial resolution with high-dimensional multidisciplinary datasets and machine learning methods Three relatively popular and robust machine learning models, including support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine (GBM) and random forest (RF), were used. During the fine-tuning process based on training datasets of A. aegypti and A. albopictus, RF models achieved the highest performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.973 and 0.974, respectively, followed by GBM (AUC of 0.971 and 0.972, respectively) and SVM (AUC of 0.963 and 0.964, respectively) models. The simulation difference between RF and GBM models was not statistically significant (p>0.05) based on the validation datasets, whereas statistically significant differences (p<0.05) were observed for RF and GBM simulations compared with SVM simulations. From the simulated maps derived from RF models, we observed that the distribution of A. albopictus was wider than that of A. aegypti along a latitudinal gradient. The discriminatory power of each factor in simulating the global distribution of the two species was also analyzed. Our results provided fundamental information for further study on disease transmission simulation and risk assessment.
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143
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Yañez-Arenas C, Rioja-Nieto R, Martín GA, Dzul-Manzanilla F, Chiappa-Carrara X, Buenfil-Ávila A, Manrique-Saide P, Correa-Morales F, Díaz-Quiñónez JA, Pérez-Rentería C, Ordoñez-Álvarez J, Vazquez-Prokopec G, Huerta H. Characterizing environmental suitability of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Mexico based on regional and global niche models. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2018; 55:69-77. [PMID: 29186544 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjx185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), is an invasive species and a vector of numerous human pathogens, including chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. This mosquito had been reported from 36 geographic locations in Mexico by 2005, increasing to 101 locations by 2010 and 501 locations (spanning 16 states) by 2016. Here we modeled the occupied niche for Ae. albopictus in Mexico to characterize the environmental conditions related to its presence, and to generate updated environmental suitability maps. The predictors with the greatest contribution to characterizing the occupied niche for Ae. albopictus were NDVI and annual mean temperature. We also estimated the environmental suitability for Ae. albopictus in regions of the country where it has not been documented yet, by means of: 1) transferring its occupied niche model to these regions and 2) modeling its fundamental niche using global data. Our models will help vector control and public health institutions to identify areas where Ae. albopictus has not yet been recorded but where it may be present. We emphasize that most of Mexico has environmental conditions that potentially allow the survival of Ae. albopictus, which underscores the need for systematic mosquito monitoring in all states of the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Yañez-Arenas
- Grupo de Análisis en Ecología Geográfica Aplicada, Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Carretera Sierra Papacal Chuburná Puerto Km. 5, Sierra Papacal, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Rodolfo Rioja-Nieto
- Laboratorio de Análisis Espacial de Zonas Costeras, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Carretera Sierra Papacal Chuburná Puerto Km. 5, Sierra Papacal, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Gerardo A Martín
- Wildlife Health Research Group, James Cook University, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences. James Cook Drive, Australia
| | - Felipe Dzul-Manzanilla
- Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE), Secretaria de Salud, Benjamín Franklin No. 132, Col. Escandón, Delegación Miguel Hidalgo, CDMX, Mexico
| | - Xavier Chiappa-Carrara
- Grupo de Análisis en Ecología Geográfica Aplicada, Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Carretera Sierra Papacal Chuburná Puerto Km. 5, Sierra Papacal, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Aura Buenfil-Ávila
- Grupo de Análisis en Ecología Geográfica Aplicada, Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Carretera Sierra Papacal Chuburná Puerto Km. 5, Sierra Papacal, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Pablo Manrique-Saide
- Unidad Colaborativa de Bioensayos Entomológicos, Departamento de Zoología, Campus de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Km. 15.5 Carr. Mérida-Xmatkuil s.n., Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Fabián Correa-Morales
- Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE), Secretaria de Salud, Benjamín Franklin No. 132, Col. Escandón, Delegación Miguel Hidalgo, CDMX, Mexico
| | - José Alberto Díaz-Quiñónez
- Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos 'Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez' (InDRE), Secretaria de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda No. 177, Col. Unidad Lomas de Plateros, Delegación Álvaro Obregón, CDMX, Mexico
- Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Avenida Universidad 3000, C.P. 04510 Ciudad de México, CDMX, Mexico
| | - Crescencio Pérez-Rentería
- Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos 'Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez' (InDRE), Secretaria de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda No. 177, Col. Unidad Lomas de Plateros, Delegación Álvaro Obregón, CDMX, Mexico
| | - José Ordoñez-Álvarez
- Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos 'Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez' (InDRE), Secretaria de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda No. 177, Col. Unidad Lomas de Plateros, Delegación Álvaro Obregón, CDMX, Mexico
| | | | - Herón Huerta
- Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos 'Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez' (InDRE), Secretaria de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda No. 177, Col. Unidad Lomas de Plateros, Delegación Álvaro Obregón, CDMX, Mexico
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144
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Lana RM, Morais MM, de Lima TFM, Carneiro TGDS, Stolerman LM, dos Santos JPC, Cortés JJC, Eiras ÁE, Codeço CT. Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0190673. [PMID: 29304070 PMCID: PMC5755894 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2017] [Accepted: 12/19/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to December 2011 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. K was the only free parameter estimated by the model. At the city level, the model with temperature as a driver captured the seasonal pattern of mosquito abundance. At the local level, we observed a spatial heterogeneity in the estimated carrying capacity between neighborhoods, weakly associated with environmental variables related to poor infrastructure. Model goodness-of-fit was influenced by the number of sticky traps, and suggests a minimum of 16 traps at the neighborhood level for surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raquel Martins Lana
- Programa de Computação Científica, (PROCC), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- * E-mail:
| | - Maíra Moreira Morais
- Centro Universitário de Belo Horizonte (UniBH), Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Tiago França Melo de Lima
- Departamento de Computação e Sistemas (DECSI), Instituto de Ciências Exatas e Aplicadas (ICEA), Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP), João Monlevade, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | | | - Lucas Martins Stolerman
- Programa de Computação Científica, (PROCC), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Jefferson Pereira Caldas dos Santos
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sérgio Arouca (ENSP), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Álvaro Eduardo Eiras
- Laboratório de Ecologia Química de Insetos Vetores (Labeq), Departamento de Parasitologia Instituto de Ciências Biológicas (ICB), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Cláudia Torres Codeço
- Programa de Computação Científica, (PROCC), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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145
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Kraemer MUG, Bisanzio D, Reiner RC, Zakar R, Hawkins JB, Freifeld CC, Smith DL, Hay SI, Brownstein JS, Perkins TA. Inferences about spatiotemporal variation in dengue virus transmission are sensitive to assumptions about human mobility: a case study using geolocated tweets from Lahore, Pakistan. EPJ DATA SCIENCE 2018; 7:16. [PMID: 30854281 PMCID: PMC6404370 DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0144-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Accepted: 05/31/2018] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Billions of users of mobile phones, social media platforms, and other technologies generate an increasingly large volume of data that has the potential to be leveraged towards solving public health challenges. These and other big data resources tend to be most successful in epidemiological applications when utilized within an appropriate conceptual framework. Here, we demonstrate the importance of assumptions about host mobility in a framework for dynamic modeling of infectious disease spread among districts within a large urban area. Our analysis focused on spatial and temporal variation in the transmission of dengue virus (DENV) during a series of large seasonal epidemics in Lahore, Pakistan during 2011-2014. Similar to many directly transmitted diseases, DENV transmission occurs primarily where people spend time during daytime hours, given that DENV is transmitted by a day-biting mosquito. We inferred spatiotemporal variation in DENV transmission under five different assumptions about mobility patterns among ten districts of Lahore: no movement among districts, movement following patterns of geo-located tweets, movement proportional to district population size, and movement following the commonly used gravity and radiation models. Overall, we found that inferences about spatiotemporal variation in DENV transmission were highly sensitive to this range of assumptions about intra-urban human mobility patterns, although the three assumptions that allowed for a modest degree of intra-urban mobility all performed similarly in key respects. Differing inferences about transmission patterns based on our analysis are significant from an epidemiological perspective, as they have different implications for where control efforts should be targeted and whether conditions for transmission became more or less favorable over time. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL The online version of this article (10.1140/epjds/s13688-018-0144-x) contains supplementary material.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moritz U. G. Kraemer
- Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - D. Bisanzio
- RTI International, Washington, USA
- Center for Tropical Diseases, Sacro Cuore-Don Calabria Hospital, Negrar, Italy
| | - R. C. Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - R. Zakar
- Department of Public Health, University of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - J. B. Hawkins
- Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - C. C. Freifeld
- Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
- College of Computer and Information Science, Northeastern University, Boston, USA
| | - D. L. Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
- Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, USA
| | - S. I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - J. S. Brownstein
- Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
- Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, USA
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146
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Kotsakiozi P, Richardson JB, Pichler V, Favia G, Martins AJ, Urbanelli S, Armbruster PA, Caccone A. Population genomics of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus: insights into the recent worldwide invasion. Ecol Evol 2017; 7:10143-10157. [PMID: 29238544 PMCID: PMC5723592 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3514] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2017] [Revised: 08/28/2017] [Accepted: 08/30/2017] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Aedes albopictus, the "Asian tiger mosquito," is an aggressive biting mosquito native to Asia that has colonized all continents except Antarctica during the last ~30-40 years. The species is of great public health concern as it can transmit at least 26 arboviruses, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. In this study, using double-digest Restriction site-Associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing, we developed a panel of ~58,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on 20 worldwide Ae. albopictus populations representing both the invasive and the native range. We used this genomic-based approach to study the genetic structure and the differentiation of Ae. albopictus populations and to understand origin(s) and dynamics of the recent invasions. Our analyses indicated the existence of two major genetically differentiated population clusters, each one including both native and invasive populations. The detection of additional genetic structure within each major cluster supports that these SNPs can detect differentiation at a global and local scale, while the similar levels of genomic diversity between native and invasive range populations support the scenario of multiple invasions or colonization by a large number of propagules. Finally, our results revealed the possible source(s) of the recent invasion in Americas, Europe, and Africa, a finding with important implications for vector-control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Verena Pichler
- Department of Public Health and Infectious DiseaseSapienza University of RomeRomeItaly
| | - Guido Favia
- School of Bioscience and Veterinary MedicineUniversity of CamerinoCamerinoItaly
| | - Ademir J. Martins
- Laboratório de Fisiologia e Controle de Artrópodes VetoresIOC‐FIOCRUZRio de JaneiroBrazil
| | - Sandra Urbanelli
- Department of Environmental BiologySapienza University of RomeRomeItaly
| | | | - Adalgisa Caccone
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyYale UniversityNew HavenCTUSA
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147
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Leta S, Beyene TJ, De Clercq EM, Amenu K, Kraemer MUG, Revie CW. Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Int J Infect Dis 2017; 67:25-35. [PMID: 29196275 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2017.11.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 240] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2017] [Revised: 11/21/2017] [Accepted: 11/23/2017] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector. METHODS Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps. RESULTS Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively. CONCLUSIONS With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of reports that include multiple arboviral diseases highlights the expanding range of their common transmission vectors. The shared features of these arboviral diseases should motivate efforts to combine interventions against these diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samson Leta
- Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine, PO Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia.
| | - Tariku Jibat Beyene
- Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine, PO Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia
| | - Eva M De Clercq
- Research Fellow FNRS, George Lemaître Institute for Earth and Climate Research, Université Catholique de Louvain, Place Louis Pasteur 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Kebede Amenu
- Addis Ababa University, College of Veterinary Medicine, PO Box 34, Bishoftu, Ethiopia
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States; Computational Epidemiology Lab, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Crawford W Revie
- University of Prince Edward Island, Department of Health Management, Charlottetown, Canada
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148
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The importance of human population characteristics in modeling Aedes aegypti distributions and assessing risk of mosquito-borne infectious diseases. Trop Med Health 2017; 45:38. [PMID: 29167627 PMCID: PMC5688614 DOI: 10.1186/s41182-017-0078-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2017] [Accepted: 10/30/2017] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The mosquito Aedes aegypti has long been a vector for human illness in the Southeastern United States. In the past, it has been responsible for outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, and yellow fever and, very recently, the Zika virus that has been introduced to the region. Multiple studies have modeled the geographic distribution of Ae. aegypti as a function of climate factors; however, this ignores the importance of humans to the anthropophilic biter. Furthermore, Ae. aegypti thrives in areas where humans have created standing water sites, such as water storage containers and trash. As models are developed to examine the potential impact of climate change, it becomes increasingly important to include the most comprehensive set of predictors possible. Results This study uses Maxent, a species distribution model, to evaluate the effects of adding poverty and population density to climate-only models. Performance was evaluated through model fit statistics, such as AUC, omission, and commission, as well as individual variable contributions and response curves. Models which included both population density and poverty exhibited better predictive power and produced more precise distribution maps. Furthermore, the two human population characteristics accounted for much of the model contribution-more so than climate variables. Conclusions Modeling mosquito distributions without accounting for their dependence on local human populations may miss factors that are very important to niche realization and subsequent risk of infection for humans. Further research is needed to determine if additional human characteristics should be evaluated for model inclusion.
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149
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Faria NR, da Costa AC, Lourenço J, Loureiro P, Lopes ME, Ribeiro R, Alencar CS, Kraemer MUG, Villabona-Arenas CJ, Wu CH, Thézé J, Khan K, Brent SE, Romano C, Delwart E, Custer B, Busch MP, Pybus OG, Sabino EC. Genomic and epidemiological characterisation of a dengue virus outbreak among blood donors in Brazil. Sci Rep 2017; 7:15216. [PMID: 29123142 PMCID: PMC5680240 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-15152-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2017] [Accepted: 10/20/2017] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Outbreaks caused by Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya viruses can spread rapidly in immunologically naïve populations. By analysing 92 newly generated viral genome sequences from blood donors and recipients, we assess the dynamics of dengue virus serotype 4 during the 2012 outbreak in Rio de Janeiro. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the outbreak was caused by genotype II, although two isolates of genotype I were also detected for the first time in Rio de Janeiro. Evolutionary analysis and modelling estimates are congruent, indicating a reproduction number above 1 between January and June, and at least two thirds of infections being unnoticed. Modelling analysis suggests that viral transmission started in early January, which is consistent with multiple introductions, most likely from the northern states of Brazil, and with an increase in within-country air travel to Rio de Janeiro. The combination of genetic and epidemiological data from blood donor banks may be useful to anticipate epidemic spread of arboviruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nuno R Faria
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
| | - Antonio Charlys da Costa
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. .,LIM46, Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
| | - José Lourenço
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Paula Loureiro
- Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Fundação Hemope, Recife, Brazil
| | | | - Roberto Ribeiro
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.,LIM46, Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Chieh-Hsi Wu
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Julien Thézé
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Kamran Khan
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Shannon E Brent
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Camila Romano
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Eric Delwart
- Blood Systems Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA.,University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Brian Custer
- Blood Systems Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA.,University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Michael P Busch
- Blood Systems Research Institute, San Francisco, California, USA.,University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Oliver G Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Ester C Sabino
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. .,LIM46, Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
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150
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Ginsberg HS, Bargar TA, Hladik ML, Lubelczyk C. Management of Arthropod Pathogen Vectors in North America: Minimizing Adverse Effects on Pollinators. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2017; 54:1463-1475. [PMID: 28968680 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjx146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Tick and mosquito management is important to public health protection. At the same time, growing concerns about declines of pollinator species raise the question of whether vector control practices might affect pollinator populations. We report the results of a task force of the North American Pollinator Protection Campaign (NAPPC) that examined potential effects of vector management practices on pollinators, and how these programs could be adjusted to minimize negative effects on pollinating species. The main types of vector control practices that might affect pollinators are landscape manipulation, biocontrol, and pesticide applications. Some current practices already minimize effects of vector control on pollinators (e.g., short-lived pesticides and application-targeting technologies). Nontarget effects can be further diminished by taking pollinator protection into account in the planning stages of vector management programs. Effects of vector control on pollinator species often depend on specific local conditions (e.g., proximity of locations with abundant vectors to concentrations of floral resources), so planning is most effective when it includes collaborations of local vector management professionals with local experts on pollinators. Interventions can then be designed to avoid pollinators (e.g., targeting applications to avoid blooming times and pollinator nesting habitats), while still optimizing public health protection. Research on efficient targeting of interventions, and on effects on pollinators of emerging technologies, will help mitigate potential deleterious effects on pollinators in future management programs. In particular, models that can predict effects of integrated pest management on vector-borne pathogen transmission, along with effects on pollinator populations, would be useful for collaborative decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Howard S Ginsberg
- USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, University of Rhode Island, RI Field Station, Woodward Hall - PSE, Kingston, RI 02881
| | - Timothy A Bargar
- USGS Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, 7920 NW 71st St., Gainesville, FL 32653
| | - Michelle L Hladik
- USGS California Water Science Center, 6000 J St., Placer Hall, Sacramento, CA 95819
| | - Charles Lubelczyk
- Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-Borne Disease Laboratory, 81 Research Dr., Scarborough, ME 04074
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