Climatic and environmental patterns associated with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, Four Corners region, United States

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead

Global climate change is inevitable--the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies.

Coupling hydrologic and infectious disease models to explain regional differences in schistosomiasis transmission in southwestern China

Rainfall-runoff models have become essential tools for conceptualizing and predicting the response of hydrologic processes to changing environments, but they have rarely been applied to challenges facing health scientists. Yet with their efficient parameterization and modest data requirements, they hold great promise for epidemiological application. A modeling analysis incorporating simple hydrologic constraints on transmission of the human parasite Schistosoma japonicum in southwestern China was conducted by coupling a lumped parameter rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) with a delay-differential equation schistosomiasis transmission model modified to account for channel flows and on-field egg inactivation. Model predictions of prevalence and infection timing agree with observations in the region, which indicate that hydrological differences between sites can lead to pronounced differences in transmission. Channel flows are shown to be important in determining infection intensity and timing in modeled village populations. In the periodic absence of flow, overall transmission intensity is reduced among all modeled risk groups. However, the influence of hydrologic variability was greater on the cercarial stage of the parasite than the miracidial stage, due to the parasite ova's ability to survive dormant on fields between rain events. The predictive power gained from including hydrological data in epidemiological models can improve risk assessments for environmentally mediated diseases, under both long-term climate change scenarios and near-term weather fluctuations.

Climate change: the public health response

There is scientific consensus that the global climate is changing, with rising surface temperatures, melting ice and snow, rising sea levels, and increasing climate variability. These changes are expected to have substantial impacts on human health. There are known, effective public health responses for many of these impacts, but the scope, timeline, and complexity of climate change are unprecedented. We propose a public health approach to climate change, based on the essential public health services, that extends to both clinical and population health services and emphasizes the coordination of government agencies (federal, state, and local), academia, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations.

Climate change and infectious diseases

The worldwide upturn in the occurrence of both new (emerging) and reemerging or spreading infectious diseases highlights the importance of underlying environmental and social conditions as determinants of the generation, spread, and impact of infectious diseases in human populations. Human ecology is undergoing rapid transition. This encompasses urbanization, rising consumerism, changes in working conditions, population aging, marked increases in mobility, changes in culture and behavior, evolving health-care technologies, and other factors. Global climate change is becoming a further, and major, large-scale influence on the pattern of infectious disease transmission. It is likely to become increasingly important over at least the next halfcentury, as the massive, highinertial, and somewhat unpredictable process of climate change continues. The many ways in which climate change does and will influence infectious diseases are subject to a plethora of modifying influences by other factors and processes: constitutional characteristics of hosts, vectors and pathogens; the prevailing ambient conditions; and coexistent changes in other social, economic, behavioral, and environmental factors. This global anthropogenic process, climate change, along with other unprecedented global environmental changes, is beginning to destabilize and weaken the planet's life-support systems. Infectious diseases, unlike other diseases, depend on the biology and behavior—each often climate-sensitive—of two or more parties. Hence, these diseases will be particularly susceptible to changes as the world's climate and its climate-sensitive geochemical and ecological systems undergo change over the coming decades.

Changes in epidemiology of leptospirosis in 2003--2004, a two El Niño Southern Oscillation period, Guadeloupe archipelago, French West Indies

Our study aimed at analysing the changes in epidemiological features of leptospirosis cases from the hospital of Pointe à Pitre in Guadeloupe in 2003--2004 compared to reliable data in 1994--2001. Leptospirosis incidence increased fourfold during 2002--2004, a period with two El Niño events. Whereas the main risk factors were unchanged (male gender, occupational exposure, contact with cattle or pigs) a major role of rodent exposure emerged (52%, P=0.02, multivariate analysis). Interestingly, mean age of cases shifted to the older population (51.7 years vs. 43 years, P<0.05). Moreover, the Ballum serogroup rose dramatically (36% of incidence) competing with the Icterohaemorragiae serogroup (62%). However, severe forms were less recorded. Our data suggest that the changes in leptospirosis features could be related to exceptional meteorological events and their consequences on rodent populations. We propose the monitoring of rodent population and climatic data as a tool of management of leptospirosis in Guadeloupe.

Land cover variation and West Nile virus prevalence: patterns, processes, and implications for disease control

Identifying links between environmental variables and infectious disease risk is essential to understanding how human-induced environmental changes will effect the dynamics of human and wildlife diseases. Although land cover change has often been tied to spatial variation in disease occurrence, the underlying factors driving the correlations are often unknown, limiting the applicability of these results for disease prevention and control. In this study, we described associations between land cover composition and West Nile virus (WNV) infection prevalence, and investigated three potential processes accounting for observed patterns: (1) variation in vector density; (2) variation in amplification host abundance; and (3) variation in host community composition. Interestingly, we found that WNV infection rates among Culex mosquitoes declined with increasing wetland cover, but wetland area was not significantly associated with either vector density or amplification host abundance. By contrast, wetland area was strongly correlated with host community composition, and model comparisons suggested that this factor accounted, at least partially, for the observed effect of wetland area on WNV infection risk. Our results suggest that preserving large wetland areas, and by extension, intact wetland bird communities, may represent a valuable ecosystem-based approach for controlling WNV outbreaks.

Hantavirus disease outbreak in Germany: limitations of routine serological diagnostics and clustering of virus sequences of human and rodent origin

In Europe, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome results mainly from infection with Puumala virus (PUUV) or Dobrava virus. For 31 patients from a hantavirus disease outbreak in Lower Bavaria, a district in southeast Germany, serodiagnosis was undertaken by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, immunofluorescence assay, and immunoblot analysis. In a few of these cases, however, PUUV-specific typing of antibodies by these standard assays failed and a virus neutralization assay under biosafety level 3 conditions was required to verify the infection by this virus type. PUUV RNA was amplified by reverse transcription-PCR from acute-phase sera of three patients and was found to be very closely related to virus sequences obtained from bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) trapped in the same area. These findings link the outbreak with a novel PUUV lineage, "Bavaria," circulating in the local rodent population. The Bavaria lineage associated with the outbreak is only distantly related to other PUUV lineages from Germany.

How host population dynamics translate into time-lagged prevalence: an investigation of Sin Nombre virus in deer mice

Human cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome caused by Sin Nombre virus are the endpoint of complex ecological cascade from weather conditions, population dynamics of deer mice, to prevalence of SNV in deer mice. Using population trajectories from the literature and mathematical modeling, we analyze the time lag between deer mouse population peaks and peaks in SNV antibody prevalence in deer mice. Because the virus is not transmitted vertically, rapid population growth can lead initially to reduced prevalence, but the resulting higher population size may later increase contact rates and generate increased prevalence. Incorporating these factors, the predicted time lag ranges from 0 to 18 months, and takes on larger values when host population size varies with a longer period or higher amplitude, when mean prevalence is low and when transmission is frequency-dependent. Population size variation due to variation in birth rates rather than death rates also increases the lag. Predicting future human outbreaks of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome may require taking these effects into account.

Atmospheric movement of microorganisms in clouds of desert dust and implications for human health

Billions of tons of desert dust move through the atmosphere each year. The primary source regions, which include the Sahara and Sahel regions of North Africa and the Gobi and Takla Makan regions of Asia, are capable of dispersing significant quantities of desert dust across the traditionally viewed oceanic barriers. While a considerable amount of research by scientists has addressed atmospheric pathways and aerosol chemistry, very few studies to determine the numbers and types of microorganisms transported within these desert dust clouds and the roles that they may play in human health have been conducted. This review is a summary of the current state of knowledge of desert dust microbiology and the health impact that desert dust and its microbial constituents may have in downwind environments both close to and far from their sources.

Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007

Background

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data.

Results

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness.

Conclusion

The current development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.

El Niño effects on influenza mortality risks in the state of California

Recent El Niño events have emphasized the need to develop modelling techniques to assess climate-related health events. Experts agree that climate changes affect the spread of infectious diseases and that the geographic range of infectious diseases may expand as a result of these changes. Nevertheless, the world health modelling community cannot yet predict, with reasonable accuracy, when or where exactly these effects will occur or how large the threat of these diseases will be to particular populations. This study compared the spatiotemporal patterns of influenza mortality risk in the state of California during El Niño vs normal weather periods. By applying a stochastic methodology to county-specific mortality data, various sources of uncertainty were accounted for, and informative influenza mortality maps and profiles were generated. This methodology enabled the detection of significant effects of climate change on the influenza risk distributions. Geographical maps of risk variation during El Niño differed from those during normal weather, the corresponding covariances exhibited distinct space-time dependence features, and the temporal mean mortality profiles were considerably higher during normal weather than during El Niño. These rather unexpected results of spatiotemporal analysis are worth further investigation that seeks substantive and biologically plausible explanations. The findings of this study can offer a methodological framework to evaluate public health management strategies.

Cross-species transfer of viruses: implications for the use of viral vectors in biomedical research, gene therapy and as live-virus vaccines

All living organisms are continuously exposed to a plethora of viruses. In general, viruses tend to be restricted to the natural host species which they infect. From time to time viruses cross the host-range barrier expanding their host range. However, in very rare cases cross-species transfer is followed by the establishment and persistence of a virus in the new host species, which may result in disease. Recent examples of viruses that have crossed the species barrier from animal reservoirs to humans are hantavirus, haemorrhagic fever viruses, arboviruses, Nipah and Hendra viruses, avian influenza virus (AI), monkeypox virus, and the SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). The opportunities for cross-species transfer of mammalian viruses have increased in recent years due to increased contact between humans and animal reservoirs. However, it is difficult to predict when such events will take place since the viral adaptation that is needed to accomplish this is multifactorial and stochastic. Against this background the intensified use of viruses and their genetically modified variants as viral gene transfer vectors for biomedical research, experimental gene therapy and for live-vector vaccines is a cause for concern. This review addresses a number of potential risk factors and their implications for activities with viral vectors from the perspective of cross-species transfer of viruses in nature, with emphasis on the occurrence of host-range mutants resulting from either cell culture or tropism engineering. The issues are raised with the intention to assist in risk assessments for activities with vector viruses.

Peut-on concrètement définir la notion de barrière d’espèce à la diffusion des pathogènes ?

Les microorganismes pathogènes n’affectent en général qu’un nombre restreint d’espèces, voire une seule. Il existe certes bon nombre d’anthropozoonoses dont l’agent infectieux peut être transmis à l’homme directement (brucellose, rage), ou indirectement par des vecteurs (Maladie de Lyme, Virus West Nile). Cependant, en règle générale, les agents infectieux présents dans le monde animal ne sont pas capables de causer une infection transmissible à l’homme, et à fortiori de donner lieu à une transmission interhumaine. Cet obstacle, somme toute salutaire, se résume sous le nom de « barrière d’espèce », un concept simplificateur recouvrant en réalité une série complexe d’étapes dont le franchissement est nécessaire pour que s’effectue le passage : accès, multiplication, colonisation, invasion au niveau des surfaces, multiplication chez l’hôte, couplés à la résistance aux mécanismes de défenses immunitaires innés et spécifiques. Chacune de ces étapes implique des interactions ligands-récepteurs dont la modification est indispensable à l’adaptation requise pour permettre le franchissement de l’étape considérée. Le passage éventuel de la barrière d’espèce impliquerait donc un changement complet, une reprogrammation du « cahier des charges », nécessaire à la réalisation de l’ensemble des évènements. Ces changements peuvent survenir à l’occasion de mutations, voire chez certains virus d’échanges génétiques par recombinaison ou réassortiment. Sous la pression sélective de la survie dans ce nouvel hôte, ces événements sélectionnés vont finalement amener à l’adaptation au nouvel hôte, en l’occurrence humain. Ce passage effectué, reste pour l’agent infectieux à être efficacement transmis d’homme à homme, sans quoi cet épisode restera sans lendemain et avortera. Cette transmission peut être liée à un ou plusieurs éléments supplémentaires d’adaptation encore mal connus.

[How to define the species barrier to pathogen transmission?]

A given microbial pathogen usually targets a restricted number of animal species. Some pathogens can be transmitted to humans from another animal species, either directly (rabies, brucellosis, etc.) or through a vector (Lyme's disease, West Nile fever, etc.). Few infectious agents with animal reservoirs infect humans, and even fewer are capable of human-human transmission. This is attributed to the "species barrier", a simplistic concept that in fact involves a series of conditions for successful inter-species transmission. These include access to an infectable surface, multiplication on that surface, colonisation, invasion, multiplication inside the new host, and resistance to innate and adaptive immune mechanisms. Each of these steps requires a specific ligand-receptor interaction. The full series of events must be "reprogrammed" for efficient implantation in a new host. These changes occur through mutations or genetic exchanges. Direct human-to-human transmission often requires additional adaptive modifications.

The Role of Ecotones in Emerging Infectious Diseases

Recognition of the significance of the boundary between ecological systems, often referred to as the ecotone, has a long history in the ecological sciences and in zoonotic disease research. More recent research in landscape ecology has produced an expanded view of ecotones and elaboration of their characteristics and functions in ecosystems. Parallel research on emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and the causes of increased rates of pathogen transmission, spread, and adaptation suggests a correspondence between ecotonal processes and the ecological and evolutionary processes responsible for zoonotic and vector-borne emerging infections. A review of the literature suggests that ecotones play a role in a number of the most important EIDs. Yet these are the only diseases for which specific landscape ecological information exists in the literature or disease reports. However, the similar disease ecologies of these with about half of the approximately 130 zoonotic EIDs suggests ecotones, particularly their anthropogenic origination or modification, may be generally associated with ecotones and the global trend of increasing EIDs.

Prevalence of enzootic simian viruses among urban performance monkeys in Indonesia

Animal reservoirs are the most important sources of emerging infectious diseases that threaten human populations. Global travel and tourism bring ever-increasing numbers of humans into contact with animals, increasing the likelihood of cross species transmission of infectious agents. Non-human primates come into contact with humans in a variety of contexts and may harbor infectious agents with zoonotic potential. We investigated the prevalence of infection with enzootic simian viruses among 20 urban performance monkeys (Macaca fascicularis) in Jakarta, Indonesia. This report documents for the first time evidence of infection with four simian viruses in urban performance monkeys. Simian foamy virus was detected by PCR in 52.9% of the macaques. Antibodies to simian retrovirus were detected in 10.5% of the macaques. Antibodies to Cercopithecine Herpesvirus 1, were detected in 5.3% of the macaques. Similarly, antibodies to simian T-cell lymphotropic virus were detected in 5.3% of the macaques. No evidence of infection with simian immunodeficiency virus was detected in these macaques. These results suggest that urban performance monkeys are a reservoir for enzootic simian viruses known to be capable of infecting humans.

North Atlantic weather oscillation and human infectious diseases in the Czech Republic, 1951-2003

Longitudinal correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation large-scale weather system (NAO) and the annual incidence rate of 14 viral, bacterial and protozoan national notifiable human diseases in the Czech Republic was examined. In simple correlation, cases of salmonellosis, erysipelas, infectious mononucleosis and toxoplasmosis were positively correlated with the winter NAO index, while hepatitis A and shigellosis were negatively correlated, and the other diseases tested (rubella, mumps, chickenpox, tick-borne encephalitis, Lyme borreliosis, leptospirosis, tularemia and scarlet fever) were uncorrelated with NAO. However, 8 of the 14 diseases also revealed a significant time trend, either increasing (infectious mononucleosis, salmonellosis, erysipelas, toxoplasmosis) or decreasing (hepatitis A, scarlet fever, leptospirosis, shigellosis) during the period. When the effect of NAO on incidence of the diseases was then controlled for calendar year using partial correlation analysis and detrended regression, only toxoplasmosis and infectious mononucleosis were found significantly positively correlated with the NAO when the index was lagged 1 or 2 years, and leptospirosis was correlated negatively with a lag of 2 years. Large-scale weather changes as described by NAO therefore do not seem to be a crucial factor in the fluctuation of annual incidence rate of the majority of tested infectious diseases in the Czech Republic, while other factors, especially social and public health circumstances, are obviously more important.

Emerging infectious diseases: TheBunyaviridae

The Bunyaviridae are a large group of viruses that infect a diversity of arthropod vectors and animal hosts. They have a worldwide distribution and can be the cause of human illness ranging from mild asymptomatic infection to hemorrhagic fever and fatal encephalitis. The growth of the human population, the expansion of agricultural and economic development, climatic changes, and the speed and frequency of global transportation all favor the emergence of bunyaviruses and other arthropod borne viruses. International monitoring of the Bunyaviridae and a greater understanding of their ecology and biology are needed to prepare for future outbreaks.

Outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, Los Santos, Panama, 1999-2000

An outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome occurred in the province of Los Santos, Panama, in late 1999 and early 2000. Eleven cases were identified; 9 were confirmed by serology. Three cases were fatal; however, no confirmed case-patient died. Case-neighborhood serologic surveys resulted in an overall hantavirus antibody prevalence of 13% among household and neighborhood members from the outbreak foci. Epidemiologic investigations did not suggest person-to-person transmission of hantavirus infection. By use of Sin Nombre virus antigen, hantavirus antibodies were detected in Oligoryzomys fulvescens and Zygodontomys brevicauda cherriei. This outbreak resulted in the first documented cases of human hantavirus infections in Central America.

Major factors affecting the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases

The diversity of infectious disease threats currently facing humanity is unprecedented because of the remarkable emergence and reemergence of pathogens worldwide. Because of population mobility, globalization of commerce and the food supply, and the effects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, infections in the developing world must be addressed to prevent infections in industrialized countries. Because pathogens do not recognize national boundaries, the rapidity with which individuals can circumnavigate the globe incubating infections makes the control of communicable diseases an enormous challenge for governments as well as for the public and primary health care systems. A global strategy for dealing with infectious disease threats must be developed and implemented as soon as possible.

Social and environmental risk factors in the emergence of infectious diseases

Fifty years ago, the age-old scourge of infectious disease was receding in the developed world in response to improved public health measures, while the advent of antibiotics, better vaccines, insecticides and improved surveillance held the promise of eradicating residual problems. By the late twentieth century, however, an increase in the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases was evident in many parts of the world. This upturn looms as the fourth major transition in human-microbe relationships since the advent of agriculture around 10,000 years ago. About 30 new diseases have been identified, including Legionnaires' disease, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), hepatitis C, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)/variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), Nipah virus, several viral hemorrhagic fevers and, most recently, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza. The emergence of these diseases, and resurgence of old ones like tuberculosis and cholera, reflects various changes in human ecology: rural-to-urban migration resulting in high-density peri-urban slums; increasing long-distance mobility and trade; the social disruption of war and conflict; changes in personal behavior; and, increasingly, human-induced global changes, including widespread forest clearance and climate change. Political ignorance, denial and obduracy (as with HIV/AIDS) further compound the risks. The use and misuse of medical technology also pose risks, such as drug-resistant microbes and contaminated equipment or biological medicines. A better understanding of the evolving social dynamics of emerging infectious diseases ought to help us to anticipate and hopefully ameliorate current and future risks.

Effects of internal fluctuations on the spreading of Hantavirus

We study the spread of Hantavirus over a host population of deer mice using a population dynamics model. We show that taking into account the internal fluctuations in the mouse population due to its discrete character strongly alters the behavior of the system. In addition to the familiar transition present in the deterministic model, the inclusion of internal fluctuations leads to the emergence of an additional deterministically hidden transition. We determine parameter values that lead to maximal propagation of the disease and discuss some implications for disease prevention policies.

Environmental and social influences on emerging infectious diseases: past, present and future

During the processes of human population dispersal around the world over the past 50 000-100 000 years, along with associated cultural evolution and inter-population contact and conflict, there have been several major transitions in the relationships of Homo sapiens with the natural world, animate and inanimate. Each of these transitions has resulted in the emergence of new or unfamiliar infectious diseases. The three great historical transitions since the initial advent of agriculture and livestock herding, from ca. 10 000 years ago, occurred when: (i) early agrarian-based settlements enabled sylvatic enzootic microbes to make contact with Homo sapiens; (ii) early Eurasian civilizations (such as the Greek and Roman empires, China and south Asia) came into military and commercial contact, ca. 3000-2000 years ago, swapping their dominant infections; and (iii) European expansionism, over the past five centuries, caused the transoceanic spread of often lethal infectious diseases. This latter transition is best known in relation to the conquest of the Americas by Spanish conquistadores, when the inadvertent spread of measles, smallpox and influenza devastated the Amerindian populations.Today, we are living through the fourth of these great transitional periods. The contemporary spread and increased lability of various infectious diseases, new and old, reflect the combined and increasingly widespread impacts of demographic, environmental, behavioural, technological and other rapid changes in human ecology. Modern clinical medicine has, via blood transfusion, organ transplantation, and the use of hypodermic syringes, created new opportunities for microbes. These have contributed to the rising iatrogenic problems of hepatitis C, HIV/AIDS and several other viral infections. Meanwhile, the injudicious use of antibiotics has been a rare instance of human action actually increasing 'biodiversity'. Another aspect of this fourth transition is that modern hyper-hygienic living restricts microbial exposure in early life. This, in the 1950s, may have contributed to an epidemic of more serious, disabling, poliomyelitis, affecting older children than those affected in earlier, more endemic decades. As with previous human-microbe transitions, a new equilibrial state may lie ahead. However, it certainly will not entail a world free of infectious diseases. Any mature, sustainable, human ecology must come to terms with both the need for, and the needs of, the microbial species that help to make up the interdependent system of life on Earth. Humans and microbes are not "at war"; rather, both parties are engaged in amoral, self-interested, coevolutionary struggle. We need to understand better, and therefore anticipate, the dynamics of that process.

Global climate change and the emergence/re-emergence of infectious diseases

Variation in the incidence of vector-borne diseases is associated with extreme weather events and annual changes in weather conditions. Moreover, it is assumed that global warming might lead to an increase of infectious disease outbreaks. While a number of reports link disease outbreaks to single weather events, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other large-scale climate fluctuations, no report unequivocally associates vector-borne diseases with increased temperature and the environmental changes expected to accompany it. The complexity of not yet fully understood pathogen transmission dynamics with numerous variables might be an explanation of the problems in assessing the risk factors.

Outbreaks of Hantavirus induced by seasonality

Using a model for rodent population dynamics, we study outbreaks of Hantavirus infection induced by the alternation of seasons. Neither season by itself satisfies the environmental requirements for propagation of the disease. This result can be explained in terms of the seasonal interruption of the relaxation process of the mouse population toward equilibrium, and may shed light on the reported connection between climate variations and outbreaks of the disease.

El Niño and health

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate event that originates in the Pacific Ocean but has wide-ranging consequences for weather around the world, and is especially associated with droughts and floods. The irregular occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events has implications for public health. On a global scale, the human effect of natural disasters increases during El Niño. The effect of ENSO on cholera risk in Bangladesh, and malaria epidemics in parts of South Asia and South America has been well established. The strongest evidence for an association between ENSO and disease is provided by time-series analysis with data series that include more than one event. Evidence for ENSO's effect on other mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases is weaker than that for malaria and cholera. Health planners are used to dealing with spatial risk concepts but have little experience with temporal risk management. ENSO and seasonal climate forecasts might offer the opportunity to target scarce resources for epidemic control and disaster preparedness.

Síndrome pulmonar e cardiovascular por hantavírus

A síndrome pulmonar e cardiovascular por hantavírus é uma doença de conhecimento relativamente recente e freqüentemente fatal, apresentando-se como síndrome do desconforto respiratório agudo. No Brasil, desde o primeiro surto, relatado em novembro/dezembro de 1993, em Juquitiba, 226 casos já foram registrados pela Fundação Nacional da Saúde. A doença afeta indivíduos previamente hígidos, apresentando-se com pródromo febril e sintomas semelhantes aos de um resfriado comum, podendo rapidamente evoluir para edema pulmonar, insuficiência respiratória aguda e choque. A hemoconcentração e a plaquetopenia são comuns da síndrome pulmonar e cardiovascular por hantavírus, e o quadro radiológico típico é de um infiltrado intersticial bilateral difuso, que progride rapidamente para consolidações alveolares, paralelamente à piora do quadro clínico. A mortalidade inicial era em torno de 75% e declinou para aproximadamente 35%, nos últimos anos. Os pacientes que sobrevivem geralmente recuperam-se completamente, cerca de uma semana após o estabelecimento do quadro respiratório. O agente causal, não reconhecido até há pouco, foi identificado como um hantavírus, cujo reservatório natural são animais roedores da família Muridae, subfamília Sigmodontinae. O tratamento específico antiviral ainda não é bem estabelecido, estando em estudo a eficácia de ribavirina. Cuidados de terapia intensiva como ventilação mecânica e monitoramento hemodinâmico invasivo são necessários nas formas mais graves da doença. Essas medidas, se instituídas precocemente, podem melhorar o prognóstico e a sobrevida dos pacientes com síndrome pulmonar e cardiovascular por hantavírus.

Hantavirus transmission: potential role of ectoparasites

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome is an often-fatal disease thought to be transmitted exclusively by rodents. We report the first evidence of hantavirus-specific RNA (Bayou) from two trombiculid mites (chiggers) and an ixodid tick parasitizing wild-caught rodents at a field site in Texas and also from a trombiculid mite in the free-living predatory stage of the chigger life cycle collected from the same site.

Factors contributing to the occurrence of emerging infectious diseases

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have been receiving increasing attention for more than two decades. Such attention has resulted from observations of increasing resistance of microorganisms to the usual antibiotics, the identification of formerly unknown disease agents and the diseases they cause, and the realization that the concept of globalization includes global exposure to disease agents formerly confined to small, endemic, or remote areas. Sadly, in the fall of 2001, the potential for using microbial agents as instruments of terror and destruction became obvious with the incidents of anthrax spread in the United States, mainly through the mail, although chemical and biological agents had already been used in this way in the past century. The relationship between infectious diseases and social, political, and economic change from the earliest times to the present has been well documented. Emerging infectious diseases and their basic causes present a threat to the stability of nations and indeed the world. Reasons for the emergence/reemergence of infectious diseases are complex and interrelated. The global village provides global economic and social opportunities but also opportunities for disease emergence and transmission. Although characteristics of microorganisms such as genetic adaptive changes are important in the emergence of infectious diseases, factors under human control play a large role. Behavioral and lifestyle choices are also a major influence on the emergence and spread of many EIDs and require attention. Factors contributing to the appearance of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases are discussed.

Satellite imagery characterizes local animal reservoir populations of Sin Nombre virus in the southwestern United States

The relationship between the risk of hantaviral pulmonary syndrome (HPS), as estimated from satellite imagery, and local rodent populations was examined. HPS risk, predicted before rodent sampling, was highly associated with the abundance of Peromyscus maniculatus, the reservoir of Sin Nombre virus (SNV). P. maniculatus were common in high-risk sites, and populations in high-risk areas were skewed toward adult males, the subclass most frequently infected with SNV. In the year after an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), captures of P. maniculatus increased only in high-risk areas. During 1998, few sites had infected mice, but by 1999, 1820 of the high-risk sites contained infected mice and the crude prevalence was 30.8%. Only 118 of the low-risk sites contained infected rodents, and the prevalence of infection was lower (8.3%). Satellite imagery identified environmental features associated with SNV transmission within its reservoir population, but at least 2 years of high-risk conditions were needed for SNV to reach high prevalence. Areas with persistently high-risk environmental conditions may serve as refugia for the survival of SNV in local mouse populations.

Viral hemorrhagic fevers including hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the Americas

The term viral hemorrhagic fever refers to an acute systemic illness with a propensity for bleeding and shock. The viral hemorrhagic fevers endemic in the Americas include yellow fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, the South American hemorrhagic fevers, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. Because these diseases are primarily zoonotic, the distribution of any given virus is generally restricted by the distribution of its natural reservoir or arthropod vector. A high index of suspicion, detailed investigation of the travel and exposure history of the patient, and a basic understanding of the incubation periods and distributions of the various reservoirs of hemorrhagic fever viruses are imperative, as are prompt notification and laboratory confirmation. Clinical management is largely supportive, with a special emphasis on safe nursing practices to prevent nosocomial transmission.

The meaning of microbial exposure, infection, colonisation, and disease in clinical practice

The basic lexicon of infectious diseases includes the terms exposure, infection, colonisation, and disease, which are used to describe the clinical states in which the presence of a microbe in a host is suspected or discovered. Therefore, the lexicon is used to articulate an implied association between a host and a microbe. However, since it is often difficult to use the available clinical and diagnostic tools to discriminate the different ways in which microbes can exist in a host, the lexicon is often used in an ambiguous and imprecise manner. Another factor contributing to imprecise use of the lexicon is that microbial factors are often held responsible for disease pathogenesis. This relegates the part that the host plays in microbial pathogenesis to an exception, which leads to the need for qualification and modification of the terminology of infectious diseases. Recently, we proposed the "damage-response framework" to incorporate the contributions of both the host and the microbe in microbial pathogenesis in a synthesis whereby host damage was used as the common denominator to describe the outcome of the host-microbe relation. In this article, we illustrate how the application of the damage-response framework to clinical infectious diseases can clarify and make more precise the terminology used to convey the outcome of microbial infection in clinical practice.

Radiographic findings in 20 patients with Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome correlated with clinical outcome

OBJECTIVE

Hantavirus is a rare rodent-borne pathogen responsible for the Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. The objective of this study was to review the clinical and radiographic findings of patients presenting with Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in northern Alberta, Canada.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 20 patients who presented with Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome from 1989 to 1999.

RESULTS

Two patterns of presentation were identified. One group (13/20 patients) presented with fulminant clinical and radiographic findings and required intensive care support. Six (46%) of the 13 died within a few days of presentation. Some presented in respiratory failure with bilateral parenchymal infiltrates or a rapid progression from mild bilateral interstitial changes to bilateral interstitial and alveolar infiltrates with pleural effusions. The radiographic findings paralleled these clinical symptoms. The second group (7/20) consisted of patients whose clinical course was more limited, as were their corresponding radiographic findings. These patients had a limited hospital stay, and only minimal changes were identified on radiographs. None of the second group of patients died.

CONCLUSION

Clearly, in our study, the patients with Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome presented as two groups: those with the fulminant form of the illness and those with the limited type. Of the patients we studied, the group with the fulminant form presented with severe clinical symptoms and radiographic signs of pulmonary disease and had a 46% mortality rate. The group with the limited form presented with mild clinical symptoms and minimal radiographic changes and had no mortalities.

Climate change and emerging infectious diseases

The ranges of infectious diseases and vectors are changing in altitude, along with shifts in plant communities and the retreat of alpine glaciers. Additionally, extreme weather events create conditions conducive to clusters of insect-, rodent- and water-borne diseases. Accelerating climate change carries profound threats for public health and society.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Anajatuba, Maranhão, Brazil

The authors report a confirmed case of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the rural area of the municipality of Anajatuba, state of Maranhão. Two other suspected cases from the same region are also described. The confirmed case involved a previously healthy young woman who died with signs and symptoms of acute respiratory insufficiency 5 days after presenting fever, myalgia and a dry cough. The patient was a student who was helping her parents with work in the fields; it was a habit of the family to store rice inside the house. The suspected cases involved two first-degree relatives working as field hands who died of acute respiratory insufficiency 24 and 48 hours, respectively, after presenting fever, myalgia and a dry cough. Both stored rice and corn inside their home. People living in the region reported massive infestations with rats in the woods and fields.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases

Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved.

Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases

Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

[Hantavirus pulmonary and cardiovascular syndrome: epidemiology, clinical presentation, laboratory diagnosis and treatment]

The Hantavirus pulmonary and cardiovascular syndrome (HPCVS) is an emerging disease in Brazil. In this study, eight confirmed cases of HPCVS were studied. All the patients presented fever and dyspnea as well as thrombocytopenia and hypoxemia. Tachycardia, malaise, hypotension and lung rales occurred in 75 to 87.5% of the cases. Hemoconcentration, blood cell count increased and immature neutrophils, and high levels of creatinine were observed in 75 to 87.5%. Intravenous liquid infusion, the use of drugs for increasing systemic vascular resistance and inotropism, and mechanic ventilation were used for the patients. Mechanical ventilation and volume administration should be started precociously, preferable in intensive care units employing recommended universal and respiratory precautions. Careful volume administration should be limited if signs of pulmonary edema develop. Mortality (50%) is high and probably related to the severity of the disease as well as to a delayed attending of the patients for intensive management. It is important to report hantaviruses and HPCVS to the Brazilian medical community considering that many cases could be undiagnosed.

Factors contributing to the emergence of Escherichia coli O157 in Africa

In 1992, a large outbreak of bloody diarrhea caused by Escherichia coli O157 infections occurred in southern Africa. In Swaziland, 40,912 physician visits for diarrhea in persons ages >5 years were reported during October through November 1992. This was a sevenfold increase over the same period during 1990-91. The attack rate was 42% among 778 residents we surveyed. Female gender and consuming beef and untreated water were significant risks for illness. E. coli O157:NM was recovered from seven affected foci in Swaziland and South Africa; 27 of 31 patient and environmental isolates had indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis patterns. Compared with previous years, a fivefold increase in cattle deaths occurred in October 1992. The first heavy rains fell that same month (36 mm), following 3 months of drought. Drought, carriage of E. coli O157 by cattle, and heavy rains with contamination of surface water appear to be important factors contributing to this outbreak.

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in northern Alberta, Canada: clinical and laboratory findings for 19 cases

We reviewed the clinical and laboratory findings for 19 cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) identified either serologically or by immunohistochemical testing of archival tissue at our tertiary care center. Fever (95%), cough (89%), and dyspnea (89%) were the most common presenting symptoms. The most prevalent presenting signs were respiratory abnormalities (95%) and tachycardia (84%). Common laboratory findings included thrombocytopenia (95%) and leukocytosis (79%). Elevated aspartate aminotransferase and lactate dehydrogenase levels were found in all patients tested. Intubation was required in 58% of the patients, and inotropic support was required in 53%. Our study confirms that serological responses appear early during clinical illness, making the enzyme immunoassay a useful tool for the diagnosis of acute HPS. The mortality (26%) and severity of disease that we observed among patients with HPS appear to be less than those reported elsewhere.

Pulsed resources and community dynamics of consumers in terrestrial ecosystems

Many terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by intermittent production of abundant resources for consumers, such as mast seeding and pulses of primary production following unusually heavy rains. Recent research is revealing patterns in the ways that consumer communities respond to these pulsed resources. Studies of the ramifying effects of pulsed resources on consumer communities integrate 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches to community dynamics, and illustrate how the strength of species interactions can change dramatically through time.

The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the U.S. National Assessment

We examined the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human health as part of a congressionally mandated study of climate change in the United States. Our author team, comprising experts from academia, government, and the private sector, was selected by the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program, and this report stems from our first 18 months of work. For this assessment we used a set of assumptions and/or projections of future climates developed for all participants in the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. We identified five categories of health outcomes that are most likely to be affected by climate change because they are associated with weather and/or climate variables: temperature-related morbidity and mortality; health effects of extreme weather events (storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and precipitation extremes); air-pollution-related health effects; water- and foodborne diseases; and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. We concluded that the levels of uncertainty preclude any definitive statement on the direction of potential future change for each of these health outcomes, although we developed some hypotheses. Although we mainly addressed adverse health outcomes, we identified some positive health outcomes, notably reduced cold-weather mortality, which has not been extensively examined. We found that at present most of the U.S. population is protected against adverse health outcomes associated with weather and/or climate, although certain demographic and geographic populations are at increased risk. We concluded that vigilance in the maintenance and improvement of public health systems and their responsiveness to changing climate conditions and to identified vulnerable subpopulations should help to protect the U.S. population from any adverse health outcomes of projected climate change.

Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife--threats to biodiversity and human health

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) of free-living wild animals can be classified into three major groups on the basis of key epizootiological criteria: (i) EIDs associated with "spill-over" from domestic animals to wildlife populations living in proximity; (ii) EIDs related directly to human intervention, via host or parasite translocations; and (iii) EIDs with no overt human or domestic animal involvement. These phenomena have two major biological implications: first, many wildlife species are reservoirs of pathogens that threaten domestic animal and human health; second, wildlife EIDs pose a substantial threat to the conservation of global biodiversity.

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.