Archival influenza virus genomes from Europe reveal genomic variability during the 1918 pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the deadliest respiratory pandemic of the 20th century and determined the genomic make-up of subsequent human influenza A viruses (IAV). Here, we analyze both the first 1918 IAV genomes from Europe and the first from samples prior to the autumn peak. 1918 IAV genomic diversity is consistent with a combination of local transmission and long-distance dispersal events. Comparison of genomes before and during the pandemic peak shows variation at two sites in the nucleoprotein gene associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible adaptation of 1918 IAV to humans. Finally, local molecular clock modeling suggests a pure pandemic descent of seasonal H1N1 IAV as an alternative to the hypothesis of origination through an intrasubtype reassortment.

For archival pathogens, like pH1N1 Influenza A virus the causative agent of 1918/19 pandemic, only few whole genome sequences exist. Here, Patrono et al. provide one complete and two partial genomes from Germany and find variation in two sites in the nucleoprotein gene in pandemic samples compared to pre-pandemic samples, that are associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible viral adaptation to humans.

The Continued Threat of Influenza A Viruses

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a major cause of respiratory infections worldwide, with the most severe cases occurring in the very young and in elderly individuals [...]

COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model

Forecasting the outcome of outbreaks as early and as accurately as possible is crucial for decision-making and policy implementations. A significant challenge faced by forecasters is that not all outbreaks and epidemics turn into pandemics, making the prediction of their severity difficult. At the same time, the decisions made to enforce lockdowns and other mitigating interventions versus their socioeconomic consequences are not only hard to make, but also highly uncertain. The majority of modeling approaches to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics take an epidemiological approach that considers biological and disease processes. In this paper, we accept the limitations of forecasting to predict the long-term trajectory of an outbreak, and instead, we propose a statistical, time series approach to modelling and predicting the short-term behavior of COVID-19. Our model assumes a multiplicative trend, aiming to capture the continuation of the two variables we predict (global confirmed cases and deaths) as well as their uncertainty. We present the timeline of producing and evaluating 10-day-ahead forecasts over a period of four months. Our simple model offers competitive forecast accuracy and estimates of uncertainty that are useful and practically relevant.

Preventive Measures against Pandemics from the Beginning of Civilization to Nowadays—How Everything Has Remained the Same over the Millennia

As of 27 March 2022, the β-coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected more than 487 million individuals worldwide, causing more than 6.14 million deaths. SARS-CoV-2 spreads through close contact, causing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); thus, emergency lockdowns have been implemented worldwide to avoid its spread. COVID-19 is not the first infectious disease that humankind has had to face during its history. Indeed, humans have recurrently been threatened by several emerging pathogens that killed a substantial fraction of the population. Historical sources document that as early as between the 10th and the 6th centuries BCE, the authorities prescribed physical–social isolation, physical distancing, and quarantine of the infected subjects until the end of the disease, measures that strongly resemble containment measures taken nowadays. In this review, we show a historical and literary overview of different epidemic diseases and how the recommendations in the pre-vaccine era were, and still are, effective in containing the contagion.

Anti-pathogen stainless steel combating COVID-19

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exhibits strong stability on conventional stainless steel (SS) surface, with infectious virus detected even after two days, posing a high risk of virus transmission via surface touching in public areas. In order to mitigate the surface toughing transmission, the present study develops the first SS with excellent anti-pathogen properties against SARS-COV-2. The stabilities of SARS-CoV-2, H1N1 influenza A virus (H1N1), and Escherichia coli (E.coli) on the surfaces of Cu-contained SS, pure Cu, Ag-contained SS, and pure Ag were investigated. It is discovered that pure Ag and Ag-contained SS surfaces do not display apparent inhibitory effects on SARS-CoV-2 and H1N1. In comparison, both pure Cu and Cu-contained SS with a high Cu content exhibit significant antiviral properties. Significantly, the developed anti-pathogen SS with 20 wt% Cu can distinctly reduce 99.75% and 99.99% of viable SARS-CoV-2 on its surface within 3 and 6 h, respectively. In addition, the present anti-pathogen SS also exhibits an excellent inactivation ability for H1N1 influenza A virus (H1N1), and Escherichia coli (E.coli). Interestingly, the Cu ion concentration released from the anti-pathogen SS with 10 wt% and 20 wt% Cu was notably higher than the Ag ion concentration released from Ag and the Ag-contained SS. Lift buttons made of the present anti-pathogen SS are produced using mature powder metallurgy technique, demonstrating its potential applications in public areas and fighting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens via surface touching.

Antigenic characterization of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses

Antigenic characterization of emerging and re-emerging viruses is necessary for the prevention of and response to outbreaks, evaluation of infection mechanisms, understanding of virus evolution, and selection of strains for vaccine development. Primary analytic methods, including enzyme-linked immunosorbent/lectin assays, hemagglutination inhibition, neuraminidase inhibition, micro-neutralization assays, and antigenic cartography, have been widely used in the field of influenza research. These techniques have been improved upon over time for increased analytical capacity, and some have been mobilized for the rapid characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 virus as well as its variants, facilitating the development of highly effective vaccines within 1 year of the initially reported outbreak. While great strides have been made for evaluating the antigenic properties of these viruses, multiple challenges prevent efficient vaccine strain selection and accurate assessment. For influenza, these barriers include the requirement for a large virus quantity to perform the assays, more than what can typically be provided by the clinical samples alone, cell- or egg-adapted mutations that can cause antigenic mismatch between the vaccine strain and circulating viruses, and up to a 6-month duration of vaccine development after vaccine strain selection, which allows viruses to continue evolving with potential for antigenic drift and, thus, antigenic mismatch between the vaccine strain and the emerging epidemic strain. SARS-CoV-2 characterization has faced similar challenges with the additional barrier of the need for facilities with high biosafety levels due to its infectious nature. In this study, we review the primary analytic methods used for antigenic characterization of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and discuss the barriers of these methods and current developments for addressing these challenges.

Utilization of Artificial Intelligence in Disease Prevention: Diagnosis, Treatment, and Implications for the Healthcare Workforce

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been described as one of the extremely effective and promising scientific tools available to mankind. AI and its associated innovations are becoming more popular in industry and culture, and they are starting to show up in healthcare. Numerous facets of healthcare, as well as regulatory procedures within providers, payers, and pharmaceutical companies, may be transformed by these innovations. As a result, the purpose of this review is to identify the potential machine learning applications in the field of infectious diseases and the general healthcare system. The literature on this topic was extracted from various databases, such as Google, Google Scholar, Pubmed, Scopus, and Web of Science. The articles having important information were selected for this review. The most challenging task for AI in such healthcare sectors is to sustain its adoption in daily clinical practice, regardless of whether the programs are scalable enough to be useful. Based on the summarized data, it has been concluded that AI can assist healthcare staff in expanding their knowledge, allowing them to spend more time providing direct patient care and reducing weariness. Overall, we might conclude that the future of "conventional medicine" is closer than we realize, with patients seeing a computer first and subsequently a doctor.

The beginning and ending of a respiratory viral pandemic-lessons from the Spanish flu

The COVID‐19 pandemic goes into its third year and the world population is longing for an end to the pandemic. Computer simulations of the future development of the pandemic have wide error margins and predictions on the evolution of new viral variants of SARS‐CoV‐2 are uncertain. It is thus tempting to look into the development of historical viral respiratory pandemics for insight into the dynamic of pandemics. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 caused by the influenza virus H1N1 can here serve as a potential model case. Epidemiological observations on the shift of influenza mortality from very young and old subjects to high mortality in young adults delimitate the pandemic phase of the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1920. The identification and sequencing of the Spanish flu agent allowed following the H1N1 influenza virus after the acute pandemic phase. During the 1920s H1N1 influenza virus epidemics with substantial mortality were still observed. As late as 1951, H1N1 strains of high virulence evolved but remained geographically limited. Until 1957, the H1N1 virus evolved by accumulation of mutations (‘antigenic drift’) and some intratypic reassortment. H1N1 viruses were then replaced by the pandemic H2N2 influenza virus from 1957, which was in 1968 replaced by the pandemic H3N2 influenza virus; both viruses were descendants from the Spanish flu agent but showed the exchange of entire gene segments (‘antigenic shift’). In 1977, H1N1 reappeared from an unknown source but caused only mild disease. However, H1N1 achieved again circulation in the human population and is now together with the H3N2 influenza virus an agent of seasonal influenza winter epidemics.

Macroeconomics of the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1920

Data for 48 countries during the Great Influenza Pandemic imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 160 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. Higher flu death rates also decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.

COVID-19 news consumption and distress in young people: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought challenges for the mental health of young people. The volume, negative content and potential for misinformation within COVID-19 related news can be an additional cause of distress. This systematic review aims to synthesise the research findings on the relationship between COVID-19 news and distress in young people.

METHODS

Following the PRISMA guidelines, PubMed, Web of Science, and PsycINFO databases were searched on 24 April 2021 for articles that contained empirical research examining the association between COVID-19 news consumption and mental health in samples of young people with a mean age between 10 and 24 years.

RESULTS

The 13 included studies involved 760,474 participants in predominantly cross-sectional studies, with data collected during COVID-19 lockdowns across seven countries. Increased consumption of COVID-19 news was associated with a decline in mental health (n = 11). The results were more consistent for news obtained on social media with variation for traditional media sources. Misinformation may further explain the relationship.

LIMITATIONS

Heterogeneity across study methodologies, lack of longitudinal research and validated measures of news consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

The reviewed literature supports the association between increased consumption of COVID-19 related news and decreased mental health in young people. This group may benefit from support to mitigate the psychological impacts of COVID-19 news. Future research should utilise longitudinal designs, ecological momentary assessments, and reliable/valid measures of news consumption to explore the negative mental health associated with COVID-19 news in young people.

The starting dates of COVID-19 multiple waves

The severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 spread globally very quickly, causing great concern at the international level due to the severity of the associated respiratory disease, the so-called COVID-19. Considering Rio de Janeiro city (Brazil) as an example, the first diagnosis of this disease occurred in March 2020, but the exact moment when the local spread of the virus started is uncertain as the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system was not widely prepared to detect suspected cases of COVID-19 at that time. Improvements in this surveillance system occurred over the pandemic, but due to the complex nature of the disease transmission process, specifying the exact moment of emergence of new community contagion outbreaks is a complicated task. This work aims to propose a general methodology to determine possible start dates for the multiple community outbreaks of COVID-19, using for this purpose a parametric statistical approach that combines surveillance data, nonlinear regression, and information criteria to obtain a statistical model capable of describing the multiple waves of contagion observed. The dynamics of COVID-19 in the city of Rio de Janeiro is taken as a case study, and the results suggest that the original strain of the virus was already circulating in Rio de Janeiro city as early as late February 2020, probably being massively disseminated in the population during the carnival festivities.

Ecological Barrier Deterioration Driven by Human Activities Poses Fatal Threats to Public Health due to Emerging Infectious Diseases

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and concerns about several other pandemics in the 21st century have attracted extensive global attention. These emerging infectious diseases threaten global public health and raise urgent studies on unraveling the underlying mechanisms of their transmission from animals to humans. Although numerous works have intensively discussed the cross-species and endemic barriers to the occurrence and spread of emerging infectious diseases, both types of barriers play synergistic roles in wildlife habitats. Thus far, there is still a lack of a complete understanding of viral diffusion, migration, and transmission in ecosystems from a macro perspective. In this review, we conceptualize the ecological barrier that represents the combined effects of cross-species and endemic barriers for either the natural or intermediate hosts of viruses. We comprehensively discuss the key influential factors affecting the ecological barrier against viral transmission from virus hosts in their natural habitats into human society, including transmission routes, contact probability, contact frequency, and viral characteristics. Considering the significant impacts of human activities and global industrialization on the strength of the ecological barrier, ecological barrier deterioration driven by human activities is critically analyzed for potential mechanisms. Global climate change can trigger and expand the range of emerging infectious diseases, and human disturbances promote higher contact frequency and greater transmission possibility. In addition, globalization drives more transmission routes and produces new high-risk regions in city areas. This review aims to provide a new concept for and comprehensive evidence of the ecological barrier blocking the transmission and spread of emerging infectious diseases. It also offers new insights into potential strategies to protect the ecological barrier and reduce the wide-ranging risks of emerging infectious diseases to public health.

Broad-Spectrum Activity of Small Molecules Acting against Influenza a Virus: Biological and Computational Studies

Influenza still represents a problematic disease, involving millions of people every year and causing hundreds of thousands of deaths. Only a few drugs are clinically available. The search for an effective weapon is still ongoing. In this scenario, we recently identified new drug-like compounds with antiviral activity toward two A/H1N1 Influenza virus strains, which were demonstrated to interfere with the processes mediated by hemagglutinin (HA). In the present work, the compound’s ability to act against the A/H3N2 viral strain has been evaluated in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Two of the five tested compounds were also active toward the A/H3N2 Influenza virus. To validate the scaffold activity, analogue compounds of two broad-spectrum molecules were selected and purchased for HI testing on both A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 Influenza viruses. Forty-three compounds were tested, and four proved to be active toward all three viral strains. A computational study has been carried out to depict the HA binding process of the most interesting compounds.

Optimization of an Inclusion Body-Based Production of the Influenza Virus Neuraminidase in Escherichia coli

Neuraminidase (NA), as an important protein of influenza virus, represents a promising target for the development of new antiviral agents for the treatment and prevention of influenza A and B. Bacterial host strain Escherichia coli BL21 (DE3)pLysS containing the NA gene of the H1N1 influenza virus produced this overexpressed enzyme in the insoluble fraction of cells in the form of inclusion bodies. The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of independent variables (propagation time, isopropyl β-d-1-thiogalactopyranoside (IPTG) concentration and expression time) on NA accumulation in inclusion bodies and to optimize these conditions by response surface methodology (RSM). The maximum yield of NA (112.97 ± 2.82 U/g) was achieved under optimal conditions, namely, a propagation time of 7.72 h, IPTG concentration of 1.82 mM and gene expression time of 7.35 h. This study demonstrated that bacterially expressed NA was enzymatically active.

Multiple Neuraminidase Containing Influenza Virus-Like Particle Vaccines Protect Mice from Avian and Human Influenza Virus Infection

Avian influenza virus remains a threat for humans, and vaccines preventing both avian and human influenza virus infections are needed. Since virus-like particles (VLPs) expressing single neuraminidase (NA) subtype elicited limited heterosubtypic protection, VLPs expressing multiple NA subtypes would enhance the extent of heterosubtypic immunity. Here, we generated avian influenza VLP vaccines displaying H5 hemagglutinin (HA) antigen with or without avian NA subtypes (N1, N6, N8) in different combinations. BALB/c mice were intramuscularly immunized with the VLPs to evaluate the resulting homologous and heterosubtypic immunity upon challenge infections with the avian and human influenza viruses (A/H5N1, A/H3N2, A/H1N1). VLPs expressing H5 alone conferred homologous protection but not heterosubtypic protection, whereas VLPs co-expressing H5 and NA subtypes elicited both homologous and heterosubtypic protection against human influenza viruses in mice. We observed that VLP induced neuraminidase inhibitory activities (NAI), virus-neutralizing activity, and virus-specific antibody (IgG, IgA) responses were strongly correlated with the number of different NA subtype expressions on the VLPs. VLPs expressing all 3 NA subtypes resulted in the highest protection, indicated by the lowest lung titer, negligible body weight changes, and survival in immunized mice. These results suggest that expressing multiple neuraminidases in avian HA VLPs is a promising approach for developing a universal influenza A vaccine against avian and human influenza virus infections.

Risks and new challenges in the food chain: Viral contamination and decontamination from a global perspective, guidelines, and cleaning

Even during the continuing world pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2), consumers remain exposed to the risk of getting infected by existing, emerging, or re-emerging foodborne and waterborne viruses. SARS-CoV-2 is different in that it is transmitted directly via the airborne route (droplets and aerosols) or indirect contact (surfaces contaminated with SARS-CoV-2). International food and health organizations and national regulatory bodies have provided guidance to protect individuals active in food premises from potential occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2, and have recommended chemicals effective in controlling the virus. Additionally, to exclude transmission of foodborne and waterborne viruses, hygiene practices to remove viral contaminants from surfaces are applied in different stages of the food chain (e.g., food plants, food distribution, storage, retail sector, etc.), while new and enhanced measures effective in the control of all types of viruses are under development. This comprehensive review aims to analyze and compare efficacies of existing cleaning practices currently used in the food industry to remove pathogenic viruses from air, nonfood, and food contact surfaces, as well as from food surfaces. In addition, the classification, modes of transmission, and survival of food and waterborne viruses, as well as SARS-CoV-2 will be presented. The international guidelines and national regulations are summarized in terms of virucidal chemical agents and their applications.

Reconciling Regulation with Scientific Autonomy in Dual-Use Research

In debates over the regulation of communication related to dual-use research, the risks that such communication creates must be weighed against against the value of scientific autonomy. The censorship of such communication seems justifiable in certain cases, given the potentially catastrophic applications of some dual-use research. This conclusion however, gives rise to another kind of danger: that regulators will use overly simplistic cost-benefit analysis to rationalize excessive regulation of scientific research. In response to this, we show how institutional design principles and normative frameworks from free speech theory can be used to help extend the argument for regulating dangerous dual-use research beyond overly simplistic cost-benefit reasoning, but without reverting to an implausibly absolutist view of scientific autonomy.

Preliminary Data on Gastrointestinal Deficiencies Incidence and the Prevalence of Anxiety During the COVID-19 Pandemic Among the Medical Workers

ABSTRACT

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly contagious new β-coronavirus that primarily affects the lungs. Because of its unprecedented spread, in a relatively short interval, it is declared a global pandemic. Binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors, SARS-CoV-2 is easily disseminated through air. Apart from the established clinical panel, individuals exposed to prolonged chronic stress also manifest gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms similar to those exhibited by SARS-CoV-2-infected patients.The present study aims to assess the incidence of GI deficiencies and prevalence of anxiety among healthy medical staff by applying the Visual Analog Scale for Irritable Bowel Syndrome (VAS-IBS) and Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAM-A) during this global crisis.We found significant differences on several items of the VAS-IBS: regarding the incidence of diarrhea (p = 0.04), bloating/gases (p = 0.02), and nausea/vomiting (p = 0.01) from the physical spectrum. After stratification based on age of the participants and after we applied Kruskal-Wallis test because of heterogeneity between groups, we noted two situations in which the null hypothesis is rejected: nausea/vomiting in women between 20 and 30 years, and between 30 and 40, and between 40 and 50 years, respectively (p = 0.026/0.029). Anxiety was prevalent among young and middle-class people after the centralization of HAM-A data, where 40.4% of the participants had various forms of anxiety: mild (n = 13; 13.82%), severe (n = 13; 13.82%), and moderate (n = 12; 12.76%).This study demonstrates that VAS-IBS is a reliable tool for assessing the incidence of GI deficiencies, as well as HAM-A for anxiety.

Multi-Target Approaches of Epigallocatechin-3-O-gallate (EGCG) and its Derivatives Against Influenza Viruses

Influenza viruses (INFV), Orthomyxoviridae family, are mainly transmitted among humans, via aerosols or droplets from the respiratory secretions. However, fomites could be a potential transmission pathway. Annually, seasonal INFV infections account for 290-650 thousand deaths worldwide. Currently, there are two classes of approved drugs to treat INFV infections, being neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors and blockers of matrix-2 (M2) ion channel. However, cases of resistance have been observed for both chemical classes, reducing the efficacy of treatment. The emergence of influenza outbreaks and pandemics calls for new antiviral molecules more effective and that could overcome the current resistance to anti-influenza drugs. In this context, polyphenolic compounds are found in various plants and these have displayed different multi-target approaches against diverse pathogens. Among these, green tea (Camellia sinensis) catechins, in special epigallocatechin-3-O-gallate (EGCG), have demonstrated significant activities against the two most relevant human INFV, subtypes A and lineages B. In this sense, EGCG has been found a promising multi-target agent against INFV since can act inhibiting NA, hemagglutination (HA), RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), and viral entry/adsorption. In general, the lack of knowledge about potential multi-target natural products prevents an adequate exploration of them, increasing the time for developing multi-target drugs. Then, this review aimed to compile to most relevant studies showing the anti-INFV effects of EGCG and its derivatives, which could become antiviral drug prototypes in the future.

Generation, characterization, and protective ability of mouse monoclonal antibodies against the HA of A (H1N1) influenza virus

Influenza virus infections pose a continuous threat to human health. Although vaccines function as a preventive and protective tool, they may not be effective due to antigen drift or an inaccurate prediction of epidemic strains. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have attracted wide attention as a promising therapeutic method for influenza virus infections. In this study, three hemagglutinin (HA)-specific mAbs, named 2A1, 2H4, and 2G2, respectively, were derived from mice immunized with the HA protein from A/Michigan/45/2015(H1N1). The isolated mAbs all displayed hemagglutination inhibition activity and the 2G2 mAb exhibited the strongest neutralization effect. Two amino acid mutations (A198E and G173E), recognized in the process of selection of mAb-resistant mutants, were located in antigenic site Sb and Ca1, respectively. In prophylactic experiments, all three mAbs could achieve 100% protection in mice infected with a lethal dose of A/Michigan/45/2015(H1N1). A dose of 1 mg/kg for 2H4 and 2G2 was sufficient to achieve a full protective effect. Therapeutic experiments showed that all three mAbs could protect mice from death if they received the mAb administration at 6 h postinfection, and 2G2 was still protective after 24 h. Our findings indicate that these three mAbs may have potential prevention and treatment value in an H1N1 epidemic, as well as in the study of antigen epitope recognition.

Pandemics Past, Present, and Future: What History Can Teach Us

One of the lessons of the current pandemic is that Americans have lost trust in the public health system in the United States (US) and in the health recommendations of the Federal government. History tells us that each pandemic brings new challenges and new lessons. Looking back at the history of pandemics, and at the present experience, nurses and midwives can craft responses to patient concerns and contribute to future planning that better addresses the needs of maternal-child health practices.

COVID-19: The cynosure of rise of Parkinson's disease

Parkinson's disease (PD) is one of the most common age-related disorders globally. The pathophysiological mechanisms and precipitating factors underlying PD manifestations, including genetic and environmental parameters, inflammation/stress and ageing, remain elusive. Speculations about whether the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic could be a pivotal factor in affecting the prevalence and severity of PD or triggering a wave of new-onset parkinsonism in both the near and distant future have recently become very popular, with researchers wondering if there is a changing trend in current parkinsonism cases. Could the current understanding of the Covid-19 pathophysiology provide clues for an impending rise of parkinsonism cases in the future? Are there any lessons to learn from previous pandemics? Our aim was to look into these questions and available current literature in order to investigate if Covid-19 could constitute a cardinal event affecting the parkinsonism landscape.

Advanced Point-of-Care Testing Technologies for Human Acute Respiratory Virus Detection

The ever-growing global threats to human life caused by the human acute respiratory virus (RV) infections have cost billions of lives, created a significant economic burden, and shaped society for centuries. The timely response to emerging RVs could save human lives and reduce the medical care burden. The development of RV detection technologies is essential for potentially preventing RV pandemic and epidemics. However, commonly used detection technologies lack sensitivity, specificity, and speed, thus often failing to provide the rapid turnaround times. To address this problem, new technologies are devised to address the performance inadequacies of the traditional methods. These emerging technologies offer improvements in convenience, speed, flexibility, and portability of point-of-care test (POCT). Herein, recent developments in POCT are comprehensively reviewed for eight typical acute respiratory viruses. This review discusses the challenges and opportunities of various recognition and detection strategies and discusses these according to their detection principles, including nucleic acid amplification, optical POCT, electrochemistry, lateral flow assays, microfluidics, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, and microarrays. The importance of limits of detection, throughput, portability, and specificity when testing clinical samples in resource-limited settings is emphasized. Finally, the evaluation of commercial POCT kits for both essential RV diagnosis and clinical-oriented practices is included.

Assay of Fatty Acids and Their Role in the Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19

Since the emergence of COVID-19, concerted worldwide efforts have taken place to minimize global spread of the contagion. Its widespread effects have also facilitated evolution of new strains, such as the delta and omicron variants, which emerged toward the end of 2020 and 2021, respectively. While these variants appear to be no more deadly than the previous alpha, beta, and gamma strains, and widespread population vaccinations notwithstanding, greater virulence makes the challenge of minimizing spread even greater. One of the peculiarities of this virus is the extreme heath impacts, with the great majority of individuals minimally affected, even sometimes unaware of infection, while for a small minority, it is deadly or produces diverse long-term effects. Apart from vaccination, another approach has been an attempt to identify treatments, for those individuals for whom the virus represents a threat of particularly severe health impact(s). These treatments include anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies, anticoagulant therapies, interleukin inhibitors, and anti-viral agents such as remdesivir. Nutritional factors are also under consideration, and a variety of clinical trials are showing promise for the use of specific fatty acids, or related compounds such as fat-soluble steroid vitamin D, to mitigate the more lethal aspects of COVID-19 by modulating inflammation and by anti-viral effects. Here we explore the potential protective role of fatty acids as a potential prophylactic as well as remedial treatment during viral infections, particularly COVID-19. We present a multiplexed method for the analysis of free and phospholipid bound fatty acids, which may facilitate research into the role of fatty acids as plasma biomarkers and therapeutic agents in minimizing pre- and post-infection health impacts.

Impact of 1918 influenza pandemic on mental asylums in India: An analysis of asylum reports

INTRODUCTION

Not much is known about impact of 1918 Influenza on patients confined inside mental asylums of that period.

AIM AND METHODS

The study aimed to assess impact of Influenza pandemic on mentally ill patients in asylums, based on data extracted from provincial asylum reports (1915-1923) from British India.

RESULTS

The asylum population in most provinces was impacted both in terms of direct mortality (1918) as well as all-cause morbidity and mortality (1918; 1918-1920). Agra and Oudh lost 9.5% of average daily asylum strength directly due to influenza in 1918. All-cause mortality (1918) was highest for mental asylum/s in provinces of Agra and Oudh (16.83%), Punjab (14.83%), and Bombay (14.4%). Isolated outbreaks continued till 1923. Another peculiar finding was markedly reduced sickness and death rates in 1921-1923 compared to 1915-1917, across asylums of all provinces.

CONCLUSION

Findings point to a significant impact of Influenza pandemic in mental asylums across several provinces, and provide historical insights with implications for the current pandemic.

Responses against infectious disease pandemics: a narrative review on COVID-19

Currently, the world is facing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. With this, an emerging infectious disease pandemic in the absence of effective antiviral agents and vaccines for a novel virus is no different from the 1918 influenza pandemic, which became a great disaster for humankind. We also experienced a global lockdown with a stringent implementation of social distancing, which is a first for mankind living in the present day, and has led to enormous economic damage and restrictions on individual freedom. The microorganism that will cause the next pandemic may be a highly fatal avian influenza virus, another coronavirus, or a completely different microorganism. This COVID-19 pandemic is an enormous lesson for humankind and is tantamount to a vaccine in preparation for the next pandemic. Important and urgent undertakings were given to each country in terms of complementing laws and regulations for a stronger and more resilient healthcare system, such as investment in research and development for new rapid diagnostic technologies, vaccines, new therapeutic agents, among others.

COVID-19, the Brain, and the Future: Is Infection by the Novel Coronavirus a Harbinger of Neurodegeneration?

The possible impact of viral infections on the development or pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders remains largely unknown. However, there have been reports associating the influenza virus pandemic and long-term infection with the Japanese encephalitis virus with the development of post-encephalitic Parkinsonism or von Economo encephalitis. In the last one year plus, there has been a worldwide pandemic arising from infection with the novel coronavirus or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2 which causes a severe acute respiratory syndrome that has become associated with central nervous system symptoms or complications. Its possible central nervous system involvement is in line with emerging scientific evidence which shows that the human respiratory coronaviruses can enter the brain, infect neural cells, persist in the brain, and cause activation of myelin-reactive T cells. Currently, there is a dearth of scientific information on the acute or possible long-term impact of infection with SARS-CoV-2 on the development of dementias and/or neurodegenerative diseases. This is not unrelated to the fact that the virus is 'new', and its effects on humans are still being studied. This narrative review examines extant literature for the impact of corona virus infections on the brain; as it considers the possibility that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could increase the risk for the development of neurodegenerative diseases or hasten their progression.

The Development of mRNA Vaccines for Infectious Diseases: Recent Updates

mRNA-based technologies have been of interest for the past few years to be used for therapeutics. Several mRNA vaccines for various diseases have been in preclinical and clinical stages. With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the emergence of mRNA vaccines has transformed modern science. Recently, two major mRNA vaccines have been developed and approved by global health authorities for administration on the general population for protection against SARS-CoV-2. They have been proven to be successful in conferring protection against the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 and its emerging variants. This will draw attention to various mRNA vaccines against infectious diseases that are in the early stages of clinical trials. mRNA vaccines offer several advantages ranging from rapid design, generation, manufacturing, and administration and have strong potential to be used against various diseases in the future. Here, we summarize the mRNA-based vaccines in development against various infectious diseases.

Imagining pandemics now, and then: a century of medical failure

Ever since the devastating 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, policy makers have employed mathematical models to predict the course of epidemics and pandemics in an effort to mitigate their worst impacts. But while Britain has long been a pioneer of predictive epidemiology and disease modellers occupied influential positions on key committees that advised the government on its response to the coronavirus pandemic, as in 1918 Britain mounted one of the least effective responses to Covid-19 of any country in the world. Arguing that this 'failure of expertise' was the result of medical and political complacency and over-reliance on disease models predicated on influenza, this paper uses the lens of medical history to show how medical attitudes to Covid-19 mirrored those of the English medical profession in 1918. Rather than putting our faith in preventive medicine and statistical technologies to predict the course of epidemics and dictate suppressive measures in future, I argue we need to cultivate more profound forms of imaginative engagement with infectious disease outbreaks that take account of the long history of quarantines and the lived experiences of pandemics. A useful starting point would be to recognize that while measures such as the R° may be useful for calculating the reproductive rate of a virus, they can never capture the full risks of pandemics or their social complexity.

Microorganisms as Shapers of Human Civilization, from Pandemics to Even Our Genomes: Villains or Friends? A Historical Approach

Universal history is characterized by continuous evolution, in which civilizations are born and die. This evolution is associated with multiple factors, among which the role of microorganisms is often overlooked. Viruses and bacteria have written or decisively contributed to terrible episodes of history, such as the Black Death in 14th century Europe, the annihilation of pre-Columbian American civilizations, and pandemics such as the 1918 Spanish flu or the current COVID-19 pandemic caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Nevertheless, it is clear that we could not live in a world without these tiny beings. Endogenous retroviruses have been key to our evolution and for the regulation of gene expression, and the gut microbiota helps us digest compounds that we could not otherwise process. In addition, we have used microorganisms to preserve or prepare food for millennia and more recently to obtain drugs such as antibiotics or to develop recombinant DNA technologies. Due to the enormous importance of microorganisms for our survival, they have significantly influenced the population genetics of different human groups. This paper will review the role of microorganisms as "villains" who have been responsible for tremendous mortality throughout history but also as "friends" who help us survive and evolve.

A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission

Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model uses a compartmental approach including dynamic and nonlinear behavior of transmission through three factors: susceptible, infected, and removed (recovered and deceased) individuals. Using the Lambert W Function, we propose a framework to study solutions of the SIR model. This demonstrates the applications of COVID-19 transmission data to model the spread of a real-world disease. Different models of disease including the SIR, SIRmp and SEIRρqr model are compared with respect to their ability to predict disease spread. Physical distancing impacts and personal protection equipment use are discussed with relevance to the COVID-19 spread.

Influenza immune escape under heterogeneous host immune histories

In a pattern called immune imprinting, individuals gain the strongest immune protection against the influenza strains encountered earliest in life. In many recent examples, differences in early infection history can explain birth year-associated differences in susceptibility (cohort effects). Susceptibility shapes strain fitness, but without a clear conceptual model linking host susceptibility to the identity and order of past infections general conclusions on the evolutionary and epidemic implications of cohort effects are not possible. Failure to differentiate between cohort effects caused by differences in the set, rather than the order (path), of past infections is a current source of confusion. We review and refine hypotheses for path-dependent cohort effects, which include imprinting. We highlight strategies to measure their underlying causes and emergent consequences.

Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden

What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors - including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects - contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.

The antimicrobial and immunomodulatory effects of Ionophores for the treatment of human infection

Ionophores are a diverse class of synthetic and naturally occurring ion transporter compounds which demonstrate both direct and in-direct antimicrobial properties against a broad panel of bacterial, fungal, viral and parasitic pathogens. In addition, ionophores can regulate the host-immune response during communicable and non-communicable disease states. Although the clinical use of ionophores such as Amphotericin B, Bedaquiline and Ivermectin highlight the utility of ionophores in modern medicine, for many other ionophore compounds issues surrounding toxicity, bioavailability or lack of in vivo efficacy studies have hindered clinical development. The antimicrobial and immunomodulating properties of a range of compounds with characteristics of ionophores remain largely unexplored. As such, ionophores remain a latent therapeutic avenue to address both the global burden of antimicrobial resistance, and the unmet clinical need for new antimicrobial therapies. This review will provide an overview of the broad-spectrum antimicrobial and immunomodulatory properties of ionophores, and their potential uses in clinical medicine for combatting infection.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in India bucks the trend: Trained innate immunity?

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 pandemic caught the world unawares by its sudden onset in early 2020. Memories of the 1918 Spanish Flu were rekindled raising extreme fear for the virus, but in essence, it was the host and not the virus, which was deciding the outcome of the infection. Age, gender, and preexisting conditions played critical roles in shaping COVID-19 outcome. People of lower socioeconomic strata were disproportionately affected in industrialized countries such as the United States. India, a developing country with more than 1.3 billion population, a large proportion of it being underprivileged and with substandard public health provider infrastructure, feared for the worst outcome given the sheer size and density of its population. Six months into the pandemic, a comparison of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality data between India, the United States, and several European countries, reveal interesting trends. While most developed countries show curves expected for a fast-spreading respiratory virus, India seems to have a slower trajectory. As a consequence, India may have gained on two fronts: the spread of the infection is unusually prolonged, thus leading to a curve that is "naturally flattened"; concomitantly the mortality rate, which is a reflection of the severity of the disease has been relatively low. I hypothesize that trained innate immunity, a new concept in immunology, may be the phenomenon behind this. Biocultural, socioecological, and socioeconomic determinants seem to be influencing the outcome of COVID-19 in different regions/countries of the world.

Transmission risks of respiratory infectious diseases in various confined spaces: A meta-analysis for future pandemics

BACKGROUND

If the different transmission risks of respiratory infectious diseases according to the type of confined space and associated factors could be discovered, this kind of information will be an important basis for devising future quarantine policies. However, no comprehensive systematic review or meta-analysis for this topic exists.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to analyze different transmission risks of respiratory infectious diseases according to the type of confined space. This information will be an important basis for devising future quarantine policies.

METHODS

A medical librarian searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (until December 01, 2020).

RESULTS

A total of 147 articles were included. The risk of transmission in all types of confined spaces was approximately 3 times higher than in open space (combined RR, 2.95 (95% CI 2.62-3.33)). Among them, school or workplace showed the highest transmission risk (combined RR, 3.94 (95% CI 3.16-4.90)). Notably, in the sub-analysis for SARS-CoV-2, residential space and airplane were the riskiest space (combined RR, 8.30 (95% CI 3.30-20.90) and 7.30 (95% CI 1.15-46.20), respectively).

DISCUSSION

Based on the equation of the total number of contacts, the order of transmission according to the type of confined space was calculated. The calculated order was similar to the observed order in this study. The transmission risks in confined spaces can be lowered by reducing each component of the aforementioned equation. However, as seen in the data for SARS-CoV-2, the closure of one type of confined space could increase the population density in another confined space. The authority of infection control should consider this paradox. Appropriate quarantine measures targeted for specific types of confined spaces with a higher risk of transmission, school or workplace for general pathogens, and residential space/airplane for SARS-CoV-2 can reduce the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases.

COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from more than a century of pandemics and current vaccine development for pandemic control

Pandemic dynamics and health care responses are markedly different during the COVID-19 pandemic than in earlier outbreaks. Compared with established infectious disease such as influenza, we currently know relatively little about the origin, reservoir, cross-species transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Health care services, drug availability, laboratory testing, research capacity and global governance are more advanced than during 20th century pandemics, although COVID-19 has highlighted significant gaps. The risk of zoonotic transmission and an associated new pandemic is rising substantially. COVID-19 vaccine development has been done at unprecedented speed, with the usual sequential steps done in parallel. The pandemic has illustrated the feasibility of this approach and the benefits of a globally coordinated response and infrastructure. Some of the COVID-19 vaccines recently developed or currently in development might offer flexibility or sufficiently broad protection to swiftly respond to antigenic drift or emergence of new coronaviruses. Yet many challenges remain, including the large-scale production of sufficient quantity of vaccines, delivery of vaccines to all countries and ensuring vaccination of relevant age groups. This wide vaccine technology approach will be best employed in tandem with active surveillance for emerging variants or new pathogens using antigen mapping, metagenomics and next generation sequencing.

Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19

Since COVID-19 broke out, there has been renewed interest in understanding the economic and social dynamics of historical and more recent epidemics and pandemics, from the plagues of Antiquity to modern-day outbreaks like Ebola. These events can have significant impacts on the interplay between poverty and social cohesion, i.e. how different groups in society interact and cooperate to survive and prosper. To that effect, this paper provides a theory-driven overview of how social responses to past epidemics and pandemics were determined by the epidemiological and non-epidemiological characteristics of these outbreaks, with a particular focus on the conditions giving rise to scapegoating and persecution of minority groups, including migrants. We discuss existing theories as well as historical and quantitative studies, and highlight the cases where epidemics and pandemics may lead to milder or more severe forms of scapegoating. Finally, we conclude with a summary of priorities for future research on epidemics, pandemics and social conflict and discuss the possible effects and policy implications of COVID-19.

Plausibility of a third wave of COVID-19 in India: A mathematical modelling based analysis

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

In the context of India's ongoing resurgence of COVID-19 (second wave since mid-February 2021, following the subsiding of the first wave in September 2020), there has been increasing speculation on the possibility of a future third wave of infection, posing a burden on the healthcare system. Using simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, this study examined the conditions under which a serious third wave could occur.

METHODS

Using a deterministic, compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, four potential mechanisms for a third wave were examined: (i) waning immunity restores previously exposed individuals to a susceptible state, (ii) emergence of a new viral variant that is capable of escaping immunity to previously circulating strains, (iii) emergence of a new viral variant that is more transmissible than the previously circulating strains, and (iv) release of current lockdowns affording fresh opportunities for transmission.

RESULTS

Immune-mediated mechanisms (waning immunity, or viral evolution for immune escape) are unlikely to drive a severe third wave if acting on their own, unless such mechanisms lead to a complete loss of protection among those previously exposed. Likewise, a new, more transmissible variant would have to exceed a high threshold (R0>4.5) to cause a third wave on its own. However, plausible mechanisms for a third wave include: (i) a new variant that is more transmissible and at the same time capable of escaping prior immunity, and (ii) lockdowns that are highly effective in limiting transmission and subsequently released. In both cases, any third wave seems unlikely to be as severe as the second wave. Rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave. Model projections are, however, subject to several uncertainties, and it remains important to scale up vaccination coverage to mitigate against any eventuality. Preparedness planning for any potential future wave will benefit by drawing upon the projected numbers based on the present modelling exercise.

CRISPR Tackles Emerging Viral Pathogens

Understanding the dynamic relationship between viral pathogens and cellular host factors is critical to furthering our knowledge of viral replication, disease mechanisms and development of anti-viral therapeutics. CRISPR genome editing technology has enhanced this understanding, by allowing identification of pro-viral and anti-viral cellular host factors for a wide range of viruses, most recently the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2. This review will discuss how CRISPR knockout and CRISPR activation genome-wide screening methods are a robust tool to investigate the viral life cycle and how other class 2 CRISPR systems are being repurposed for diagnostics.

Molecular archeology of human viruses

The evolution of human-virus associations is usually reconstructed from contemporary patterns of genomic diversity. An intriguing, though still rarely implemented, alternative is to search for the genetic material of viruses in archeological and medical archive specimens to document evolution as it happened. In this chapter, we present lessons from ancient DNA research and incorporate insights from virology to explore the potential range of applications and likely limitations of archeovirological approaches. We also highlight the numerous questions archeovirology will hopefully allow us to tackle in the near future, and the main expected roadblocks to these avenues of research.

Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900-2018

I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the U.S. for 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality. I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed, which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the events of high frequency (i.e., years of low mortality). I also discuss the implications of my estimates for risk management and pandemic planning.

The future of COVID-19: A vaccine review

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted individuals, families, and communities for well over a year, and has brought light to how a broad range of social, economic, and historically relevant factors take massive tolls on the health and well-being of underserved communities around the world. This literature review aims to bring light to the current landscape of vaccines, disparities that exist in COVID-19 response, the historical relevance of the ongoing pandemic, and what needs to be accomplished for a more prepared response to potential future pandemics. It will be shown that as the world continues become more interconnected, amplification of international cooperation and well-funded response organizations are imperative to provide more equitable care in future health crises. The synthesis of current research will be helpful to researchers analyzing historical trends in the COVID-19 pandemic and individuals interested in better understanding and advocating for underserved communities across the globe.

Viral detection and identification in 20 min by rapid single-particle fluorescence in-situ hybridization of viral RNA

The increasing risk from viral outbreaks such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates the need for rapid, affordable and sensitive methods for virus detection, identification and quantification; however, existing methods for detecting virus particles in biological samples usually depend on multistep protocols that take considerable time to yield a result. Here, we introduce a rapid fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) protocol capable of detecting influenza virus, avian infectious bronchitis virus and SARS-CoV-2 specifically and quantitatively in approximately 20 min, in virus cultures, combined nasal and throat swabs with added virus and likely patient samples without previous purification. This fast and facile workflow can be adapted both as a lab technique and a future diagnostic tool in enveloped viruses with an accessible genome.

Pandemics Initially Spread Among People of Higher (Not Lower) Social Status: Evidence From COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu

According to a staple in the social sciences, pandemics particularly spread among people of lower social status. Challenging this staple, we hypothesize that it holds true in later phases of pandemics only. In the initial phases, by contrast, people of higher social status should be at the center of the spread. We tested our phase-sensitive hypothesis in two studies. In Study 1, we analyzed region-level COVID-19 infection data from 3,132 U.S. regions, 299 English regions, and 400 German regions. In Study 2, we analyzed historical data from 1,159,920 U.S. residents who witnessed the 1918/1919 Spanish Flu pandemic. For both pandemics, we found that the virus initially spread more rapidly among people of higher social status. In later phases, that effect reversed; people of lower social status were most exposed. Our results provide novel insights into the center of the spread during the critical initial phases of pandemics.

Review of Influenza Virus Vaccines: The Qualitative Nature of Immune Responses to Infection and Vaccination Is a Critical Consideration

Influenza viruses have affected the world for over a century, causing multiple pandemics. Throughout the years, many prophylactic vaccines have been developed for influenza; however, these viruses are still a global issue and take many lives. In this paper, we review influenza viruses, associated immunological mechanisms, current influenza vaccine platforms, and influenza infection, in the context of immunocompromised populations. This review focuses on the qualitative nature of immune responses against influenza viruses, with an emphasis on trained immunity and an assessment of the characteristics of the host–pathogen that compromise the effectiveness of immunization. We also highlight innovative immunological concepts that are important considerations for the development of the next generation of vaccines against influenza viruses.