Prognosis for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: development and validation of a personalised prediction model

Phenotypic categorisation of individual subjects with motor neuron disease based on radiological disease burden patterns: A machine-learning approach

Motor neuron disease is an umbrella term encompassing a multitude of clinically heterogeneous phenotypes. The early and accurate categorisation of patients is hugely important, as MND phenotypes are associated with markedly different prognoses, progression rates, care needs and benefit from divergent management strategies. The categorisation of patients shortly after symptom onset is challenging, and often lengthy clinical monitoring is needed to assign patients to the appropriate phenotypic subgroup. In this study, a multi-class machine-learning strategy was implemented to classify 300 patients based on their radiological profile into diagnostic labels along the UMN-LMN spectrum. A comprehensive panel of cortical thickness measures, subcortical grey matter variables, and white matter integrity metrics were evaluated in a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model. Additional exploratory analyses were also carried out using discriminant function analyses (DFA). Excellent classification accuracy was achieved for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the testing cohort (93.7%) using the MLP model, but poor diagnostic accuracy was detected for primary lateral sclerosis (43.8%) and poliomyelitis survivors (60%). Feature importance analyses highlighted the relevance of white matter diffusivity metrics and the evaluation of cerebellar indices, cingulate measures and thalamic radiation variables to discriminate MND phenotypes. Our data suggest that radiological data from single patients may be meaningfully interpreted if large training data sets are available and the provision of diagnostic probability outcomes may be clinically useful in patients with short symptom duration. The computational interpretation of multimodal radiology datasets herald viable diagnostic, prognostic and clinical trial applications.

Sensitivity of brain MRI and neurological examination for detection of upper motor neurone degeneration in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

To investigate sensitivity of brain MRI and neurological examination for detection of upper motor neuron (UMN) degeneration in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

METHODS

We studied 192 patients with ALS and 314 controls longitudinally. All patients visited our centre twice and underwent full neurological examination and brain MRI. At each visit, we assessed UMN degeneration by measuring motor cortex thickness (CT) and pyramidal tract fibre density (FD) corresponding to five body regions (bulbar region and limbs). For each body region, we measured degree of clinical UMN and lower motor neuron (LMN) symptom burden using a validated scoring system.

RESULTS

We found deterioration over time of CT of motor regions (p≤0.0081) and progression of UMN signs of bulbar region and left arm (p≤0.04). FD was discriminative between controls and patients with moderate/severe UMN signs (all regions, p≤0.034), but did not change longitudinally. Higher clinical UMN burden correlated with reduced CT, but not lower FD, for the bulbar region (p=2.2×10^-10) and legs (p≤0.025). In the arms, we found that severe LMN signs may reduce the detectability of UMN signs (p≤0.043). With MRI, UMN degeneration was detectable before UMN signs became clinically evident (CT: p=1.1×10^-10, FD: p=6.3×10^-4). Motor CT, but not FD, deteriorated more than UMN signs during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Motor CT is a more sensitive measure of UMN degeneration than UMN signs. Motor CT and pyramidal tract FD are discriminative between patients and controls. Brain MRI can monitor UMN degeneration before signs become clinically evident. These findings promote MRI as a potential biomarker for UMN progression in clinical trials in ALS.

Lower and upper motor neuron involvement and their impact on disease prognosis in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a fatal neurodegenerative disease characterized by progressive muscle wasting, breathing and swallowing difficulties resulting in patient’s death in two to five years after disease onset. In amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, both upper and lower motor neurons of the corticospinal tracts are involved in the process of neurodegeneration, accounting for great clinical heterogeneity of the disease. Clinical phenotype has great impact on the pattern and rate of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis progression and overall survival prognosis. Creating more homogenous patient groups in order to study the effects of drug agents on specific manifestations of the disease is a challenging issue in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical trials. Since amyotrophic lateral sclerosis has low incidence rates, conduction of multicenter trials requires certain standardized approaches to disease diagnosis and staging. This review focuses on the current approaches in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis classification and staging system based on clinical examination and additional instrumental methods, highlighting the role of upper and lower motor neuron involvement in different phenotypes of the disease. We demonstrate that both clinical and instrumental findings can be useful in evaluating severity of upper motor neuron and lower motor neuron involvement and predicting the following course of the disease. Addressing disease heterogeneity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical trials could lead to study designs that will assess drug efficacy in specific patient groups, based on the disease pathophysiology and spatiotemporal pattern. Although clinical evaluation can be a sufficient screening method for dividing amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients into clinical subgroups, we provide proof that instrumental studies could provide valuable insights in the disease pathology.

Dying with Parkinson's Disease: Healthcare Utilization and Costs in the Last Year of Life

BACKGROUND

The end-of-life period is associated with disproportionately higher health care utilization and cost at the population level but there is little data in Parkinson's disease (PD).

OBJECTIVE

The goals of this study were to 1) compare health care use and associated cost in the last year of life between decedents with and without PD, and 2) identify factors associated with palliative care consultation and death in hospital.

METHODS

Using linked administrative datasets held at ICES, we conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study of all Ontario, Canada decedents from 2015 to 2017. We examined demographic data, rate of utilization across healthcare sectors, and cost of health care services in the last year of life.

RESULTS

We identified 291,276 decedents of whom 12,440 (4.3%) had a diagnosis of PD. Compared to decedents without PD, decedents with PD were more likely to be admitted to long-term care (52% vs. 23%, p < 0.001) and received more home care (69.0 vs. 41.8 days, p < 0.001). Receipt of palliative homecare or physician palliative home consultation were associated with lower odds of dying in hospital (OR: 0.24, 95% CI: 0.19- 0.30, and OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.33- 0.43, respectively). Mean cost of care in the last year of life was greater for decedents with PD ($68,391 vs. $59,244, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Compared to individuals without PD, individuals with PD have higher rates of long-term care, home care and higher health care costs in the last year of life. Palliative care is associated with a lower rate of hospital death.

OUP accepted manuscript

The routine clinical integration of individualized objective markers of disease activity in those diagnosed with the neurodegenerative disorder amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a key requirement for therapeutic development. A large, multicentre, clinic-based, longitudinal cohort was used to systematically appraise the leading candidate biofluid biomarkers in the stratification and potential therapeutic assessment of those with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Incident patients diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (n = 258), other neurological diseases (n = 80) and healthy control participants (n = 101), were recruited and followed at intervals of 3–6 months for up to 30 months. Cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain and chitotriosidase 1 and blood neurofilament light chain, creatine kinase, ferritin, complement C3 and C4 and C-reactive protein were measured. Blood neurofilament light chain, creatine kinase, serum ferritin, C3 and cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain and chitotriosidase 1 were all significantly elevated in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients. First-visit plasma neurofilament light chain level was additionally strongly associated with survival (hazard ratio for one standard deviation increase in log₁₀ plasma neurofilament light chain 2.99, 95% confidence interval 1.65–5.41, P = 0.016) and rate of disability progression, independent of other prognostic factors. A small increase in level was noted within the first 12 months after reported symptom onset (slope 0.031 log₁₀ units per month, 95% confidence interval 0.012–0.049, P = 0.006). Modelling the inclusion of plasma neurofilament light chain as a therapeutic trial outcome measure demonstrated that a significant reduction in sample size and earlier detection of disease-slowing is possible, compared with using the revised Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale. This study provides strong evidence that blood neurofilament light chain levels outperform conventional measures of disease activity at the group level. The application of blood neurofilament light chain has the potential to radically reduce the duration and cost of therapeutic trials. It might also offer a first step towards the goal of more personalized objective disease activity monitoring for those living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

The hypometabolic state: a good predictor of a better prognosis in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition and weight loss are negative prognostic factors for survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). However, energy expenditure at rest (REE) is still not included in clinical practice, and no data are available concerning hypometabolic state in ALS.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate in a referral cohort of patients with ALS the prevalence of hypometabolic state as compared with normometabolic and hypermetabolic states, and to correlate it with clinical phenotype, rate of progression and survival.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective study examining REE measured by indirect calorimetry in patients with ALS referred to Milan, Limoges and Tours referral centres between January 2011 and December 2017. Hypometabolism and hypermetabolism states were defined when REE difference between measured and predictive values was ≤-10% and ≥10%, respectively. We evaluated the relationship between these metabolic alterations and measures of body composition, clinical characteristics and survival.

RESULTS

Eight hundred forty-seven patients with ALS were recruited. The median age at onset was 63.79 years (IQR 55.00-71.17). The male/female ratio was 1.26 (M/F: 472/375). Ten per cent of patients with ALS were hypometabolic whereas 40% were hypermetabolic. Hypometabolism was significantly associated with later need for gastrostomy, non-invasive ventilation and tracheostomy placement. Furthermore, hypometabolic patients with ALS significantly outlived normometabolic (HR=1.901 (95% CI 1.080 to 3.345), p=0.0259) and hypermetabolic (HR=2.138 (95% CI 1.154 to 3.958), p=0.0157) patients.

CONCLUSION

Hypometabolism in ALS is not uncommon and is associated with slower disease progression and better survival than normometabolic and hypermetabolic subjects. Indirect calorimetry should be performed at least at time of diagnosis because alterations in metabolism are correlated with prognosis.

Genetic architecture of motor neuron diseases

Motor neuron diseases (MNDs) are rare and frequently fatal neurological disorders in which motor neurons within the brainstem and spinal cord regions slowly die. MNDs are primarily caused by genetic mutations, and > 100 different mutant genes in humans have been discovered thus far. Given the fact that many more MND-related genes have yet to be discovered, the growing body of genetic evidence has offered new insights into the diverse cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in the aetiology and pathogenesis of MNDs. This search may aid in the selection of potential candidate genes for future investigation and, eventually, may open the door to novel interventions to slow down disease progression. In this review paper, we have summarized detailed existing research findings of different MNDs, such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), spinal bulbar muscle atrophy (SBMA) and hereditary spastic paraplegia (HSP) in relation to their complex genetic architecture.

Clinical trials in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and perspective

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a progressive and devastating neurodegenerative disease. Despite decades of clinical trials, effective disease-modifying drugs remain scarce. To understand the challenges of trial design and delivery, we performed a systematic review of Phase II, Phase II/III and Phase III amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical drug trials on trial registries and PubMed between 2008 and 2019. We identified 125 trials, investigating 76 drugs and recruiting more than 15 000 people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. About 90% of trials used traditional fixed designs. The limitations in understanding of disease biology, outcome measures, resources and barriers to trial participation in a rapidly progressive, disabling and heterogenous disease hindered timely and definitive evaluation of drugs in two-arm trials. Innovative trial designs, especially adaptive platform trials may offer significant efficiency gains to this end. We propose a flexible and scalable multi-arm, multi-stage trial platform where opportunities to participate in a clinical trial can become the default for people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

The Transcriptional Complex Sp1/KMT2A by Up-Regulating Restrictive Element 1 Silencing Transcription Factor Accelerates Methylmercury-Induced Cell Death in Motor Neuron-Like NSC34 Cells Overexpressing SOD1-G93A

Methylmercury (MeHg) exposure has been related to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) pathogenesis and molecular mechanisms of its neurotoxicity has been associated to an overexpression of the Restrictive Element 1 Silencing Transcription factor (REST). Herein, we evaluated the possibility that MeHg could accelerate neuronal death of the motor neuron-like NSC34 cells transiently overexpressing the human Cu²⁺/Zn²⁺superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) gene mutated at glycine 93 (SOD1-G93A). Indeed, SOD1-G93A cells exposed to 100 nM MeHg for 24 h showed a reduction in cell viability, as compared to cells transfected with empty vector or with unmutated SOD1 construct. Interestingly, cell survival reduction in SOD1-G93A cells was associated with an increase of REST mRNA and protein levels. Furthermore, MeHg increased the expression of the transcriptional factor Sp1 and promoted its binding to REST gene promoter sequence. Notably, Sp1 knockdown reverted MeHg-induced REST increase. Co-immunoprecipitation experiments demonstrated that Sp1 physically interacted with the epigenetic writer Lysine-Methyltransferase-2A (KMT2A). Moreover, knocking-down of KMT2A reduced MeHg-induced REST mRNA and protein increase in SOD1-G93A cells. Finally, we found that MeHg-induced REST up-regulation triggered necropoptotic cell death, monitored by RIPK1 increased protein expression. Interestingly, REST knockdown or treatment with the necroptosis inhibitor Necrostatin-1 (Nec) decelerated MeH-induced cell death in SOD1-G93A cells. Collectively, this study demonstrated that MeHg hastens necroptotic cell death in SOD1-G93A cells via Sp1/KMT2A complex, that by epigenetic mechanisms increases REST gene expression.

Predictors of survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A large meta-analysis

Background

The survival time of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is greatly variable and protective or risk effects of the potential survival predictors are controversial. Thus, we aim to undertake a comprehensive meta-analysis of studies investigating non-genetic prognostic and survival factors in patients with ALS.

Methods

A search of relevant literature from PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library and other citations from 1^st January 1966 to 1^st December 020 was conducted. Random-effects models were conducted to pool the multivariable or adjusted hazard ratios (HR) by Stata MP 16.0. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021256923.

Findings

A total of 5717 reports were identified, with 115 studies meeting pre-designed inclusion criteria involving 55,169 ALS patients. Five dimensions, including demographic, environmental or lifestyle, clinical manifestations, biochemical index, therapeutic factors or comorbidities were investigated. Twenty-five prediction factors, including twenty non-intervenable and five intervenable factors, were associated with ALS survival. Among them, NFL (HR:3.70, 6.80, in serum and CSF, respectively), FTD (HR:2.98), ALSFRS-R change (HR:2.37), respiratory subtype (HR:2.20), executive dysfunction (HR:2.10) and age of onset (HR:1.03) were superior predictors for poor prognosis, but pLMN or pUMN (HR:0.32), baseline ALSFRS-R score (HR:0.95), duration (HR:0.96), diagnostic delay (HR:0.97) were superior predictors for a good prognosis. Our results did not support the involvement of gender, education level, diabetes, hypertension, NIV, gastrostomy, and statins in ALS survival.

Interpretation

Our study provided a comprehensive and quantitative index for assessing the prognosis for ALS patients, and the identified non-intervenable or intervenable factors will facilitate the development of treatment strategies for ALS.

Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Fund of China (Grant No. 81971188), the 1.3.5 project for disciplines of excellence, West China Hospital, Sichuan University (Grant No. 2019HXFH046), and the Science and Technology Bureau Fund of Sichuan Province (No. 2019YFS0216).

Discussing Personalized Prognosis Empowers Patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis to Regain Control over Their Future: A Qualitative Study

The ENCALS survival prediction model offers patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) the opportunity to receive a personalized prognosis of survival at the time of diagnosis. We explored experiences of patients with ALS, caregivers, and physicians with discussing personalized prognosis through interviews with patients and their caregivers, and in a focus group of physicians. Thematic analysis revealed four themes with seven subthemes; these were recognized by the focus group. First, tailored communication: physician’s communication style and information provision mediated emotional impact and increased satisfaction with communication. Second, personal factors: coping style, illness experiences, and information needs affected patient and caregiver coping with the prognosis. Third, emotional impact ranged from happy and reassuring to regret. Fourth, regaining control over the future: participants found it helpful in looking towards the future, and emphasized the importance of quality over quantity of life. Personalized prognosis can be discussed with minimal adverse emotional impact. How it is communicated—i.e., tailored to individual needs—is as important as what is communicated—i.e., a good or poor prognosis. Discussing personalized prognosis may help patients with ALS and their caregivers regain control over the future and facilitate planning of the future (care). For many patients, quality of life matters more than quantity of time remaining.

Trends in survival of ALS from a population-based registry

Objective: To assess survival of ALS patients in general and in selected demographic and clinical subgroups comparing two periods (1998-2000 vs. 2008-2010). Methods: Newly diagnosed adults resident of Lombardy, Northern Italy from a population-based registry were included. Data were collected on age at diagnosis, sex, site of onset, diagnostic delay, and El-Escorial diagnostic category. Patients were followed until death or last observation. Survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox's proportional hazards models. Results: In 2008-2010 (267 patients), median survival was 2.4 years and 1-year, 2-year, 3-year and 5-year survival rates were 79%, 56%, 41% and 24%. Longer survival was associated with male sex, younger age, spinal onset, and longer diagnostic delay. Multivariable analysis confirmed higher death in 65-69yr (HR 2.8; 95% CI 1.4-5.6), 70-74yr (HR 3.2; 95% CI 1.6-6.3) and 75 + yr (HR 6.9; 95% CI 3.5-13.8) categories, compared to ≤49yr, in females (HR 1.4; 95% CI 1.02-1.8), compared to males, and in patients diagnosed after 6-12 months (HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4-2.7), compared with longer diagnostic delay. In 1998-2000 (235 patients), median survival was 2.2 years. The 1-year, 2-year, 3-year and 5-year survival rates were 77%, 53%, 38% and 20%. When adjusting for demographic and clinical variables, the HR for death in 2008-2010 versus 1998-2000 was 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.98). A significant increase of survival in 2008-2010 was found only in patients aged 50-59yr and 70-74yr at diagnosis. Conclusions: Survival of ALS has increased over time in the last decades, especially in middle aged and elderly patients. The benefits of comprehensive care in selected age groups might explain our findings.

Delayed Diagnosis and Diagnostic Pathway of ALS Patients in Portugal: Where Can We Improve?

Background: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease with unsatisfactory treatment options. Best management and recruitment into clinical trials requires early diagnosis. However, diagnosis is often delayed. Analysis of the diagnostic pathway and identification of the causes of diagnostic delay are imperative. Methods: We studied a cohort of 580 ALS patients followed up in our ALS clinic in Lisbon. Demographic, disease, and sociocultural factors were collected. Time from first symptom onset to diagnosis, the specialist's assessment, and investigations requested were analyzed. Predictors of diagnostic delay were evaluated by multivariate linear regression, adjusting for potential confounders. Results: The median diagnostic delay from first symptom onset was 10 months. Spinal-onset, slower disease progression, cognitive symptoms at onset, and lower income were associated with increased diagnostic delay. Most patients were first assessed by general practitioners. Patients who were first evaluated by a neurologist were more likely to be correctly diagnosed, decreasing time to diagnosis. Electromyography was decisive in establishing the diagnosis. Conclusions: Late referral from non-neurologists to a neurologist is a potentially modifiable factor contributing to significant diagnostic delay. Educational interventions targeted to non-neurologists physicians, in order to increase awareness of ALS and, consequently, promote early referral to a neurologist at a tertiary center, will be important in reducing diagnostic delay.

Circulating miR-181 is a prognostic biomarker for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentless neurodegenerative disease of the human motor neuron system, where variability in progression rate limits clinical trial efficacy. Therefore, better prognostication will facilitate therapeutic progress. In this study, we investigated the potential of plasma cell-free microRNAs (miRNAs) as ALS prognostication biomarkers in 252 patients with detailed clinical phenotyping. First, we identified, in a longitudinal cohort, miRNAs whose plasma levels remain stable over the course of disease. Next, we showed that high levels of miR-181, a miRNA enriched in neurons, predicts a greater than two-fold risk of death in independent discovery and replication cohorts (126 and 122 patients, respectively). miR-181 performance is similar to neurofilament light chain (NfL), and when combined together, miR-181 + NfL establish a novel RNA-protein biomarker pair with superior prognostication capacity. Therefore, plasma miR-181 alone and a novel miRNA-protein biomarker approach, based on miR-181 + NfL, boost precision of patient stratification. miR-181-based ALS biomarkers encourage additional validation and might enhance the power of clinical trials.

Propagation patterns in motor neuron diseases: Individual and phenotype-associated disease-burden trajectories across the UMN-LMN spectrum of MNDs

Motor neuron diseases encompass a divergent group of conditions with considerable differences in clinical manifestations, survival, and genetic vulnerability. One of the key aspects of clinical heterogeneity is the preferential involvement of upper (UMN) and lower motor neurons (LMN). While longitudinal imaging patters are relatively well characterized in ALS, progressive cortical changes in UMN,- and LMN-predominant conditions are seldom evaluated. Accordingly, the objective of this study is the juxtaposition of longitudinal trajectories in 3 motor neuron phenotypes; a UMN-predominant syndrome (PLS), a mixed UMN-LMN condition (ALS), and a lower motor neuron condition (poliomyelitis survivors). A standardized imaging protocol was implemented in a prospective, multi-timepoint longitudinal study with a uniform follow-up interval of 4 months. Forty-five poliomyelitis survivors, 61 patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and 23 patients with primary lateral sclerosis (PLS) were included. Cortical thickness alterations were evaluated in a dual analysis pipeline, using standard cortical thickness analyses, and a z-score-based individualized approach. Our results indicate that PLS patients exhibit rapidly progressive cortical thinning primarily in motor regions; ALS patients show cortical atrophy in both motor and extra-motor regions, while poliomyelitis survivors exhibit cortical thickness gains in a number of cerebral regions. Our findings suggest that dynamic cortical changes in motor neuron diseases may depend on relative UMN and/or LMN involvement, and increased cortical thickness in LMN-predominant conditions may represent compensatory, adaptive processes.

Ratio of urinary N-terminal titin fragment to urinary creatinine is a novel biomarker for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the validity of urinary N-terminal titin fragment as a biomarker for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

METHODS

We consecutively enrolled patients with ALS (n=70) and healthy controls (HC) (n=43). We assessed the urinary titin N-terminal fragment, urinary neurotrophin receptor p75 extracellular domain, serum neurofilament light chain (NfL), motor functional measurements and prognosis. We used urinary creatinine (Cr) levels to normalise the urinary levels of titin fragment.

RESULTS

Compared with HC, patients with ALS had significantly increased urinary levels of titin N-terminal fragment normalised with Cr (titin/Cr) (ALS, 27.2 pmol/mg/dL; HC, 5.8 pmol/mg/dL; p<0.001), which were correlated with the scores of the Revised Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale (r=-0.422, p<0.001). A Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that the high urinary level of titin/Cr was a survival predictor in patients with ALS. Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors showed that the urinary titin/Cr and serum NfL were independent factors for poor prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that urinary N-terminal titin fragment is a non-invasive measure of muscle damage in ALS, which could be applied in disease monitoring and prediction of disease progression, in combination with serum NfL.

MiNDAUS partnership: a roadmap for the cure and management of motor Neurone disease

An innovative approach to patient management, evidence-based policy development, and clinical drug trials is required to provide personalized care and to improve the likelihood of finding an effective treatment for Motor Neurone Disease (MND). The MiNDAus Partnership builds on and extends existing national collaborations in a targeted approach to improve the standard and coordination of care for people living with MND in Australia, and to enhance the prospects of discovering a cure or treatment. Relationships have been developed between leading clinical and research groups as well as patient-centered organizations, care providers, and philanthropy with a shared vision. MiNDAus has established a corporate structure and meets at least biannually to decide on how best to progress research, drug development, and patient management. The key themes are; (i) empowering patients and their family carers to engage in self-management and ensure personalized service provision, treatment, and policy development, (ii) integration of data collection so as to better inform policy development, (iii) unifying patients and carers with advocacy groups, funding bodies, clinicians and academic institutions so as to inform policy development and research, (iv) coordination of research efforts and development of standardized national infrastructure for conducting innovative clinical MND trials that can be harmonized within Australia and with international trials consortia. Such a collaborative approach is required across stakeholders in order to develop innovative management guidelines, underpinned by necessary and evidence-based policy change recommendations, which, will ensure the best patient care until a cure is discovered.

γ' Fibrinogen as a Predictor of Survival in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an aggressive neurodegenerative disorder related to neuroinflammation that is associated with increased risk of thrombosis. We aimed to evaluate γ' fibrinogen plasma level (an in vivo variant of fibrinogen) as a biomarker in ALS, and to test its role as a predictor of disease progression and survival. Sixty-seven consecutive patients with ALS were followed and the results were compared with those from 82 healthy blood donors. Patients were clinically evaluated at the time of blood sampling and on follow-up (every 3 months for the beginning of the follow-up until death) by applying the revised ALS Functional Rating Scale. Human plasma γ' fibrinogen concentration was quantified using a specific two-site sandwich kit enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We found, for the first time, a positive association between γ' fibrinogen concentration and survival in ALS patients: patients with higher γ' fibrinogen plasma levels survived longer, and this finding was not influenced by confounders such as age, gender, respiratory impairment, or functionality (ALSFRS-R score). Since increased levels have a positive impact on outcome, this novel biomarker should be further investigated in ALS.

A Road Map for Remote Digital Health Technology for Motor Neuron Disease

Despite recent and potent technological advances, the real-world implementation of remote digital health technology in the care and monitoring of patients with motor neuron disease has not yet been realized. Digital health technology may increase the accessibility to and personalization of care, whereas remote biosensors could optimize the collection of vital clinical parameters, irrespective of patients’ ability to visit the clinic. To facilitate the wide-scale adoption of digital health care technology and to align current initiatives, we outline a road map that will identify clinically relevant digital parameters; mediate the development of benefit-to-burden criteria for innovative technology; and direct the validation, harmonization, and adoption of digital health care technology in real-world settings. We define two key end products of the road map: (1) a set of reliable digital parameters to capture data collected under free-living conditions that reflect patient-centric measures and facilitate clinical decision making and (2) an integrated, open-source system that provides personalized feedback to patients, health care providers, clinical researchers, and caregivers and is linked to a flexible and adaptable platform that integrates patient data in real time. Given the ever-changing care needs of patients and the relentless progression rate of motor neuron disease, the adoption of digital health care technology will significantly benefit the delivery of care and accelerate the development of effective treatments.

Imaging immunological processes from blood to brain in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Neuropathology studies of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and animal models of ALS reveal a strong association between aberrant protein accumulation and motor neurone damage, as well as activated microglia and astrocytes. While the role of neuroinflammation in the pathology of ALS is unclear, imaging studies of the central nervous system (CNS) support the idea that innate immune activation occurs early in disease in both humans and rodent models of ALS. In addition, emerging studies also reveal changes in monocytes, macrophages and lymphocytes in peripheral blood as well as at the neuromuscular junction. To more clearly understand the association of neuroinflammation (innate and adaptive) with disease progression, the use of biomarkers and imaging modalities allow monitoring of immune parameters in the disease process. Such approaches are important for patient stratification, selection and inclusion in clinical trials, as well as to provide readouts of response to therapy. Here, we discuss the different imaging modalities, e.g. magnetic resonance imaging, magnetic resonance spectroscopy and positron emission tomography as well as other approaches, including biomarkers of inflammation in ALS, that aid the understanding of the underlying immune mechanisms associated with motor neurone degeneration in ALS.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is considered a robust prognostic biomarker for predicting patient survival outcomes in many diseases. However, it remains unclear whether it can be used as a biomarker for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). To correlate NLR with disease progression and survival in sporadic ALS, 1030 patients with ALS between January 2012 and December 2018 were included in this study. These patients were assigned into three groups according to their NLR values: Group 1 (NLR < 2, n = 544 [52.8%]), Group 2 (NLR = 2-3, n = 314 [30.5%]), and Group 3 (NLR > 3, n = 172 [16.7%]). All patients were followed up until April 2020. Patients in Group 3 had a significantly older onset age, a lower score on the Revised ALS Functional Rating Scale, and rapidly progressing disease conditions. Furthermore, faster disease progression rates were associated with higher NLR values (odds ratio = 1.211, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.090-1.346, P < 0.001) after adjusting for other risk factors. Compared with Groups 1 and 2, the survival time in Group 3 was significantly shorter (log-rank P = 0.002). The NLR value was considered an independent parameter for the prediction of survival in ALS patients after normalizing for all other potential parameters (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.079, 95% CI: 1.016-1.146, P = 0.014). The effects on ALS survival remained significant when adjusted for treatment (HR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.012-1.141, P_trend = 0.019) or when considering the stratified NLR value (HR = 1.115, 95% CI: 1.009-1.232, P_trend = 0.033). Thus, the NLR may help to predict the rate of disease progression and survival in patients with sporadic ALS. The study was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee of West China Hospital of Sichuan University, China (approval No. 2015 (236)) on December 23, 2015.

Noninvasive Ventilation Use Is Associated with Better Survival in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Rationale: Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is standard of care in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), yet few data exist regarding its benefits.Objectives: We sought to identify whether the use of NIV was associated with survival in ALS.Methods: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of 452 patients with ALS seen between 2006 and 2015. We matched one or more NIV subjects (prescribed NIV) to non-NIV subjects (never prescribed NIV) without replacement. The outcome was time from NIV prescription date (NIV subjects) or matched date (non-NIV subjects) until death. We performed a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with NIV hourly usage as a time-varying covariate and stratified by matched groups.Results: After creating 180 matched groups and adjusting for age, body mass index, ALS Functional Rating Scale Revised dyspnea score, and hourly NIV use, NIV was associated with a 26% reduction in the rate of death compared with non-NIV subjects (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.98; P = 0.04). Among those with limb-onset ALS, NIV subjects had a 37% lower rate of death compared with non-NIV subjects (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.45-0.87; P = 0.006). Among NIV subjects, we found that NIV use for an average of ≥4 h/d was associated with improved survival.Conclusions: NIV use was associated with significantly better survival in ALS after matching and adjusting for confounders. Increasing duration of daily NIV use was associated with longer survival. Randomized clinical trials should be performed to identify ideal thresholds for improving survival and optimizing adherence in ALS.

Probability calibration-based prediction of recurrence rate in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

Background

Although many patients receive good prognoses with standard therapy, 30–50% of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cases may relapse after treatment. Statistical or computational intelligent models are powerful tools for assessing prognoses; however, many cannot generate accurate risk (probability) estimates. Thus, probability calibration-based versions of traditional machine learning algorithms are developed in this paper to predict the risk of relapse in patients with DLBCL.

Methods

Five machine learning algorithms were assessed, namely, naïve Bayes (NB), logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) and feedforward neural network (FFNN), and three methods were used to develop probability calibration-based versions of each of the above algorithms, namely, Platt scaling (Platt), isotonic regression (IsoReg) and shape-restricted polynomial regression (RPR). Performance comparisons were based on the average results of the stratified hold-out test, which was repeated 500 times. We used the AUC to evaluate the discrimination ability (i.e., classification ability) of the model and assessed the model calibration (i.e., risk prediction accuracy) using the H-L goodness-of-fit test, ECE, MCE and BS.

Results

Sex, stage, IPI, KPS, GCB, CD10 and rituximab were significant factors predicting the 3-year recurrence rate of patients with DLBCL. For the 5 uncalibrated algorithms, the LR (ECE = 8.517, MCE = 20.100, BS = 0.188) and FFNN (ECE = 8.238, MCE = 20.150, BS = 0.184) models were well-calibrated. The errors of the initial risk estimate of the NB (ECE = 15.711, MCE = 34.350, BS = 0.212), RF (ECE = 12.740, MCE = 27.200, BS = 0.201) and SVM (ECE = 9.872, MCE = 23.800, BS = 0.194) models were large. With probability calibration, the biased NB, RF and SVM models were well-corrected. The calibration errors of the LR and FFNN models were not further improved regardless of the probability calibration method. Among the 3 calibration methods, RPR achieved the best calibration for both the RF and SVM models. The power of IsoReg was not obvious for the NB, RF or SVM models.

Conclusions

Although these algorithms all have good classification ability, several cannot generate accurate risk estimates. Probability calibration is an effective method of improving the accuracy of these poorly calibrated algorithms. Our risk model of DLBCL demonstrates good discrimination and calibration ability and has the potential to help clinicians make optimal therapeutic decisions to achieve precision medicine.

Tailoring patients' enrollment in ALS clinical trials: the effect of disease duration and vital capacity cutoffs

Objective: To evaluate how Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) patients' mortality rates change, based on different levels of forced vital capacity (FVC) and disease duration, providing a scheme of mortality rates of a real population of ALS patients to improve the design of future RCTs. Methods: One random spirometry for each ALS patient was selected during four time intervals from disease onset: (1) ≤12 months; (2) ≤18 months; (3) ≤24 months; (4) ≤36 months. Date of spirometry corresponded to date of trial entry, while time interval onset-spirometry to disease duration at enrollment. Mortality rates from inclusion were computed at different time intervals. Based on progression rates, patients were stratified in slow, intermediate and fast progressors. Survival from recruitment was calculated depending on FVC, disease duration and progression rate. Results: We included 659 patients in group 1, 888 in group 2, 1019 in group 3 and 1102 in group 4. Mortality rates were higher in each group at reducing the FVC cutoff used for recruitment (p < 0.001). Median survival decreased when lowering FVC and disease duration cutoffs (p < 0.001); a higher median disease progression rate of included patients led to lower median survival from recruitment. The proportion of recruited fast progressors raised when shortening disease duration and lowering FVC cutoff. Conclusions: This is a simple model for setting eligibility criteria, based on mortality rates of patients depending on FVC and disease duration, to select the best population for RCTs, tailored to trials' primary endpoints and duration.

Humoral response to neurofilaments and dipeptide repeats in ALS progression

Objective

To appraise the utility as biomarkers of blood antibodies and immune complexes to neurofilaments and dipeptide repeat proteins, the products of translation of the most common genetic mutation in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

Methods

Antibodies and immune complexes against neurofilament light, medium, heavy chains as well as poly‐(GP)‐(GR) dipeptide repeats were measured in blood samples from the ALS Biomarkers (n = 107) and the phenotype–genotype biomarker (n = 129) studies and in 140 healthy controls. Target analyte levels were studied longitudinally in 37 ALS cases. Participants were stratified according to the rate of disease progression estimated before and after baseline and C9orf72 genetic status. Survival and longitudinal analyses were undertaken with reference to matched neurofilament protein expression.

Results

Compared to healthy controls, total neurofilament proteins and antibodies, neurofilament light immune complexes (p < 0.0001), and neurofilament heavy antibodies (p = 0.0061) were significantly elevated in ALS, patients with faster progressing disease (p < 0.0001) and in ALS cases with a C9orf72 mutation (p < 0.0003). Blood neurofilament light protein discriminated better ALS from healthy controls (AUC: 0.92; p < 0.0001) and faster from slower progressing ALS (AUC: 0.86; p < 0.0001) compared to heavy‐chain antibodies and light‐chain immune complexes (AUC: 0.79; p < 0.0001 and AUC: 0.74; p < 0.0001). Lower neurofilament heavy antibodies were associated with longer survival (Log‐rank Chi‐square: 7.39; p = 0.0065). Increasing levels of antibodies and immune complexes between time points were observed in faster progressing ALS.

Conclusions

We report a distinctive humoral response characterized by raising antibodies against neurofilaments and dipeptide repeats in faster progressing and C9orf72 genetic mutation carriers ALS patients. We confirm the significance of plasma neurofilament proteins in the clinical stratification of ALS.

Challenging the Established Order: Innovating Clinical Trials for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Development of effective treatments for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been hampered by disease heterogeneity, a limited understanding of underlying pathophysiology, and methodologic design challenges. We have evaluated 2 major themes in the design of pivotal, phase 3 clinical trials for ALS—(1) patient selection and (2) analytical strategy—and discussed potential solutions with the European Medicines Agency. Several design considerations were assessed using data from 5 placebo-controlled clinical trials (n = 988), 4 population-based cohorts (n = 5,100), and 2,436 placebo-allocated patients from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database. The validity of each proposed design modification was confirmed by means of simulation and illustrated for a hypothetical setting. Compared to classical trial design, the proposed design modifications reduce the sample size by 30.5% and placebo exposure time by 35.4%. By making use of prognostic survival models, one creates a potential to include a larger proportion of the population and maximize generalizability. We propose a flexible design framework that naturally adapts the trial duration when inaccurate assumptions are made at the design stage, such as enrollment or survival rate. In case of futility, the follow-up time is shortened and patient exposure to ineffective treatments or placebo is minimized. For diseases such as ALS, optimizing the use of resources, widening eligibility criteria, and minimizing exposure to futile treatments and placebo is critical to the development of effective treatments. Our proposed design modifications could circumvent important pitfalls and may serve as a blueprint for future clinical trials in this population.

Health-related quality of life in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using EQ-5D-5L

Background

The study aimed to appraise the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measured by the five-level EuroQol-5 dimensions (EQ-5D-5L) in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and to explore the associations between non-motor symptoms (mood changes, cognitive disturbances and sleep disturbances).

Methods

EQ-5D-5L descriptive scores were converted into a single aggregated “health utility” score. A calibrated visual analog scale (EQ-VAS) was used for self-rating of current health status. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to explore the factors associated with HRQoL.

Results

Among the 547 enrolled ALS patients who were assessed using EQ-5D-5L, the highest frequency of reported problems was with usual activities (76.7%), followed by self-care (68.8%) and anxiety/depression (62.0%). The median health utility score was 0.78 and the median EQ-VAS score was 70. Clinical factors corresponding to differences in the EQ-5D-5L health utility score included age of onset, onset region, the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) score, and King’s College stages. Patients with depression, anxiety, and poor sleep had lower health utility scores. Patients with excessive daytime sleepiness and rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder had lower EQ-VAS scores. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that ALSFRS-R scores, depression, and anxiety were associated with health utility scores. After adjusting other parameters, ALSFRS-R score, stages, and depression were significantly associated with EQ-VAS scores (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

This study examined HRQoL in ALS patients using the Chinese version of the EQ-5D-5L scale across different stages of the disease. We found that HRQoL is related to disease severity and to mood disturbances. Management of non-motor symptoms may help improve HRQoL in ALS patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12955-021-01822-9.

A model incorporating ultrasound to predict the probability of fast disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a model to predict amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) disease progression based on clinical and neuromuscular ultrasound (NMUS) parameters.

METHODS

ALS patients were prospectively recruited. Muscle fasciculation (≥2 over 30-seconds, examined in biceps brachii-brachialis (BB), brachioradialis, tibialis anterior and vastus medialis) and nerve cross-sectional area (CSA) (median, ulnar, tibial, fibular nerve) were evaluated through NMUS. Ultrasound parameters were correlated with clinical data, including revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R) progression at one year. A predictive model was constructed to differentiate fast progressors (ALSFRS-R decline ≥ 1/month) from non-fast progressors.

RESULTS

40 ALS patients were recruited. Three parameters emerged as strong predictors of fast progressors: (i) ALSFRS-R slope at time of NMUS (p = 0.041), (ii) BB fasciculation count (p = 0.027) and (iii) proximal to distal median nerve CSA ratio < 1.22 (p = 0.026). A predictive model (scores 0-5) was built with excellent discrimination (area under curve: 0.915). Using a score of ≥ 3, the model demonstrated good sensitivity (81.3%) and specificity (91.0%) in differentiating fast from non-fast progressors.

CONCLUSION

The current model is simple and can predict the probability of fast disease progression.

SIGNIFICANCE

This model has potential as a surrogate biomarker of ALS disease progression.

Nutritional status, swallowing disorders, and respiratory prognosis in adult Duchenne muscular dystrophy patients

Malnutrition and swallowing disorders are common in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) patients. We assessed, in adult DMD with home mechanical ventilation (HMV) and cough assist device, its prevalence and the relationships with respiratory muscle strength and long-term respiratory prognosis. We reviewed the patients (n = 117, age 18-39 years [median 24]), followed in a reference center, from 2006 to 2015, to obtain clinical baseline, nutritional status, vital capacity (VC), maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP), and maximal expiratory pressure (MEP). The median body mass index (BMI) was low (15.6 kg/m²). Included patients had severe restrictive respiratory function with a median VC of 10.5% [7-17] of the predicted value. All patients were on HMV. Prevalence of malnutrition, swallowing disorders, and gastrostomy were respectively 62%, 34%, and 11%. BMI and serum albumin level were significantly associated with MIP, MEP, and VC. The 1-year/5-years cumulative incidences of respiratory events (pulmonary sepsis and acute respiratory distress) were, respectively, 20.7%/44.5%. Using univariate analysis, predictive factors for respiratory events were swallowing disorders (p = .001), transthyretinemia (p = .034), MIP (p = .039), and MEP (p = .03) but not BMI or albuminemia. Using multivariate analysis, only swallowing disorders remained significantly associated with respiratory events (OR = 4.2, IC 95% 1.31-12.2, p = .01). In conclusion, this study highlights the interrelationships between nutritional intake, swallowing function, airway clearance, and respiratory function in adult DMD. A multidisciplinary approach focusing on these previous factors is essential to optimize DMD patient health.

Lipidomic traits of plasma and cerebrospinal fluid in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis correlate with disease progression

Since amyotrophic lateral sclerosis cases exhibit significant heterogeneity, we aim to investigate the association of lipid composition of plasma and CSF with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis diagnosis, its progression and clinical characteristics. Lipidome analyses would help to stratify patients on a molecular basis. For this reason, we have analysed the lipid composition of paired plasma and CSF samples from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis cases and age-matched non-amyotrophic lateral sclerosis individuals (controls) by comprehensive liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. The concentrations of neurofilament light chain-an index of neuronal damage-were also quantified in CSF samples and plasma. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis versus control comparison, in a moderate stringency mode, showed that plasma from cases contains more differential lipids (n = 122 for raw P < 0.05; n = 27 for P < 0.01) than CSF (n = 17 for raw P < 0.05; n = 4 for P < 0.01), with almost no overlapping differential species, mainly characterized by an increased content of triacylglyceride species in plasma and decreased in CSF. Of note, false discovery rate correction indicated that one of the CSF lipids (monoacylglycerol 18:0) had high statistic robustness (false discovery rate-P < 0.01). Plasma lipidomes also varied significantly with the main involvement at onset (bulbar, spinal or respiratory). Notably, faster progression cases showed particular lipidome fingerprints, featured by decreased triacylclycerides and specific phospholipids in plasma, with 11 lipids with false discovery rate-P < 0.1 (n = 56 lipids in plasma for raw P < 0.01). Lipid species associated with progression rate clustered in a relatively low number of metabolic pathways, mainly triacylglyceride metabolism and glycerophospholipid and sphingolipid biosynthesis. A specific triacylglyceride (68:12), correlated with neurofilament content (r = 0.8, P < 0.008). Thus, the present findings suggest that systemic hypermetabolism-potentially sustained by increased triacylglyceride content-and CNS alterations of specific lipid pathways could be associated as modifiers of disease progression. Furthermore, these results confirm biochemical lipid heterogeneity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis with different presentations and progression, suggesting the use of specific lipid species as potential disease classifiers.

Trends in the clinical features of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A 14-year Chinese cohort study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The aim was to determine the transitional patterns in the clinical characteristics, treatments and comorbidities in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients over the past 14 years using data from a large clinical cohort in mainland China.

METHODS

Sporadic ALS patients who visited the Peking University Third Hospital from January 2005 to December 2018 were included in this study. The 14 years were divided into three periods, and changes in the baseline characteristics of the participants were analyzed at 5-year intervals.

RESULTS

In total, 3410 patients with sporadic ALS were recruited: 2181 were men and 1229 were women. The proportion of patients with bulbar-onset ALS increased from 13.0% in 2005-2009 to 19.5% in 2015-2018 (p < 0.001). The mean (standard deviation) age at onset increased from 49.5 (11.4) years in 2005-2009 to 53.0 (11.0) years in 2015-2018 (p < 0.001). ALS patients with diabetes or hypertension showed a delay in ALS onset, and the delay was even more apparent when the patients had both comorbidities. The proportion of riluzole users in 2015-2018 was approximately 2.5-fold of that in 2005-2009 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of a lack of clinical data on ALS in mainland China, this study evaluated a large cohort of patients diagnosed over a 14-year period. The age at onset and percentage of patients who used riluzole both increased over the study period. Additionally, it was found that patients with comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension had a delayed age of ALS onset.

Cardiac troponin T is elevated and increases longitudinally in ALS patients

Objective: To test whether high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) could act as a diagnostic or prognostic biomarker in ALS, comparing hs-cTnT to neurofilament light (NfL). Methods: We performed a case-control study, including 150 ALS patients, 28 ALS mimics, and 108 healthy controls, and a follow-up study of the ALS patients, during 2014-2020 in Stockholm, Sweden. We compared concentrations of hs-cTnT in plasma and NfL in the cerebrospinal fluid between cases and controls. To evaluate the diagnostic performance, we calculated the area under the curve (AUC). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox models to assess associations between hs-cTnT and NfL at ALS diagnosis and risk of death. The longitudinal analysis measured changes of hs-cTnT and NfL since ALS diagnosis. Results: We noted higher levels of hs-cTnT in ALS patients (median: 16.5 ng/L) than in ALS mimics (11 ng/L) and healthy controls (6 ng/L). Both hs-cTnT and NfL could distinguish ALS patients from ALS mimics, with higher AUC noted for NfL (AUC 0.88; 95%CI 0.79-0.97). Disease progression correlated weakly with hs-cTnT (Pearson's r = 0.18, p = 0.04) and moderately with NfL (Pearson's r = 0.41, p < 0.001). Shorter survival was associated with higher levels of NfL at diagnosis (HR 1.08, 95%CI 1.04-1.11), but not hs-cTnT. hs-cTnT increased (12.61 ng/L per year, 95%CI 7.14-18.06) whereas NfL decreased longitudinally since ALS diagnosis. Conclusions: NfL is a stronger diagnostic and prognostic biomarker than hs-cTnT for ALS. However, hs-cTnT might constitute a disease progression biomarker as it increases longitudinally. The underlying causes for this increase need to be investigated.

A qualitative meta-synthesis of evidence (meta-ethnography) exploring the personal experiences of gastrostomy tube in neurodegenerative diseases: a case of motor neurone disease

PURPOSE

The lived experiences of a gastrostomy tube (GT) in adults with neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) are not well understood. The aim of this qualitative meta-synthesis was to review and synthesise the available evidence to inform clinical practice and identify research gaps.

METHODS

Meta-ethnographic synthesis of qualitative studies was conducted with systematic searching of eight databases from inception to March 2021. Qualitative studies reporting personal experiences of GTs in adults with NDDs were identified. New theories were developed during translation of concepts from each study and combined as a "line-of-argument" synthesis. Patient and public involvement was incorporated as two of the authors are living with an NDD and a GT.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Of 2863 unique records identified, only nine fulfilled the review criteria. All studies recruited participants with motor neurone disease (MND); no other NDDs were represented. Two main themes emerged: decision making and living with GT. Decision making was the predominant theme and data regarding living with GT were sparse. There is limited research on the lived experience of a GT in adults with NDDs. The lived experience of GT in MND is complex and individualised. Future research is indicated to inform clinical practice.Implications for rehabilitationEvidence related to the lived experiences of gastrostomy tube (GT) in neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) is lacking especially in relation to the time after GT insertion.Decision making in relation to GT is a complex and individualised psychological process for some people, while others perceive no decisional conflict.Support from healthcare professionals is crucial during the decision-making time and should not cease after GT insertion.Support from healthcare professionals can help resolve any clinical complications and also incorporate GT into everyday routines.Healthcare professionals should be aware that their views on the benefits and problems related to GT may differ to those of individuals with a NDD.

Milano-Torino Staging and Long-Term Survival in Chinese Patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

(1) Background: The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate the association between disease progression according to the Milano–Torino staging (MITOS) system and long-term survival in Chinese patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We also examined factors affecting MITOS progression. (2) Methods: Patients were enrolled and underwent follow-up at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months, and their demographic and clinical data, including the Milano–Torino stage, Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale—Revised (ALSFRS-R) score and neuropsychiatric data, were evaluated. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting survival outcomes based on MITOS progression and ALSFRS-R score decline from baseline to 6 months were compared. The associations between MITOS progression from baseline to 6 months and survival outcome at 12, 18 and 24 months were examined, and factors associated with disease progression were evaluated with subgroup analyses. (3) Results: Among the 100 patients included, 74% were in stage 0 at baseline, and approximately 95% progressed to a higher stage of the MITOS system at 24 months. MITOS progression from baseline to 6 months and ALSFRS-R decline showed comparable value for predicting survival at 12, 18, and 24 months. MITOS progression from baseline to 6 months is strongly associated with death outcomes. Older age at onset and increased depression and anxiety scores may be related to disease progression. (4) Conclusions: MITOS progression during the early disease course could serve as a prognostic marker of long-term survival and may have utility in clinical trials. Age at onset and diagnosis and neuropsychiatric factors might be associated with disease progression.

Prediction of survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a nationwide, Danish cohort study

Introduction

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive motor neuron disease with great heterogeneity. Biological prognostic markers are needed for the patients to plan future supportive treatment, palliative treatment, and end-of-life decisions. In addition, prognostic markers are greatly needed for the randomization in clinical trials.

Objective

This study aimed to test the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) progression rate (ΔFS) as a prognostic marker of survival in a Danish ALS cohort.

Methods

The ALSFRS-R score at test date in association with duration of symptoms, from the onset of symptoms until test date, (defined as ΔFS’) was calculated for 90 Danish patients diagnosed with either probable or definite sporadic ALS. Median survival time was then estimated from the onset of symptoms until primary endpoint (either death or tracheostomy). ΔFS’ was subjected to survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards modelling, log-rank test, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

Results and conclusions

Both ΔFS’ and age was found to be strong predictors of survival of the Danish ALS cohort. Both variables are easily obtained at the time of diagnosis and could be used by clinicians and ALS patients to plan future supportive and palliative treatment. Furthermore, ΔFS’, is a simple, prognostic marker that predicts survival in the early phase of disease as well as at later stages of the disease.

The Impact of Lifetime Alcohol and Cigarette Smoking Loads on Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Progression: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background—Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating and untreatable motor neuron disease; smoking and alcohol drinking may impact its progression rate. Objective—To ascertain the influence of smoking and alcohol consumption on ALS progression rates. Methods—Cross-sectional multicenter study, including 241 consecutive patients (145 males); mean age at onset was 59.9 ± 11.8 years. Cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption data were collected at recruitment through a validated questionnaire. Patients were categorized into three groups according to ΔFS (derived from the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised and disease duration from onset): slow (n = 81), intermediate (80), and fast progressors (80). Results—Current smokers accounted for 44 (18.3%) of the participants, former smokers accounted for 10 (4.1%), and non-smokers accounted for 187 (77.6%). The age of ALS onset was lower in current smokers than non-smokers, and the ΔFS was slightly, although not significantly, higher for smokers of >14 cigarettes/day. Current alcohol drinkers accounted for 147 (61.0%) of the participants, former drinkers accounted for 5 (2.1%), and non-drinkers accounted for 89 (36.9%). The log(ΔFS) was weakly correlated only with the duration of alcohol consumption (p = 0.028), but not with the mean number of drinks/day or the drink-years. Conclusions: This cross-sectional multicenter study suggested a possible minor role for smoking in worsening disease progression. A possible interaction with alcohol drinking was suggested.

Patterns of grey and white matter changes differ between bulbar and limb onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that is characterized by a high heterogeneity in patients' disease course. Patients with bulbar onset of symptoms (b-ALS) have a poorer prognosis than patients with limb onset (l-ALS). However, neuroimaging correlates of the assumed biological difference between b-ALS and l-ALS may have been obfuscated by patients' diversity in the disease course. We conducted Voxel-Based-Morphometry (VBM) and Tract-Based-Spatial-Statistics (TBSS) in a group of 76 ALS patients without clinically relevant cognitive deficits. The subgroups of 26 b-ALS and 52 l-ALS patients did not differ in terms of disease Phase or disease aggressiveness according to the D50 progression model. VBM analyses showed widespread ALS-related changes in grey and white matter, that were more pronounced for b-ALS. TBSS analyses revealed that b-ALS was predominantly characterized by frontal fractional anisotropy decreases. This demonstrates a higher degree of neurodegenerative burden for the group of b-ALS patients in comparison to l-ALS. Correspondingly, higher bulbar symptom burden was associated with right-temporal and inferior-frontal grey matter density decreases as well as fractional anisotropy decreases in inter-hemispheric and long association tracts. Contrasts between patients in Phase I and Phase II further revealed that b-ALS was characterized by an early cortical pathology and showed a spread only outside primary motor regions to frontal and temporal areas. In contrast, l-ALS showed ongoing structural integrity loss within primary motor-regions until Phase II. We therefore provide a strong rationale to treat both onset types of disease separately in ALS studies.

Altered perivascular fibroblast activity precedes ALS disease onset

Apart from well-defined factors in neuronal cells¹, only a few reports consider that the variability of sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) progression can depend on less-defined contributions from glia^2,3 and blood vessels⁴. In this study we use an expression-weighted cell-type enrichment method to infer cell activity in spinal cord samples from patients with sporadic ALS and mouse models of this disease. Here we report that patients with sporadic ALS present cell activity patterns consistent with two mouse models in which enrichments of vascular cell genes preceded microglial response. Notably, during the presymptomatic stage, perivascular fibroblast cells showed the strongest gene enrichments, and their marker proteins SPP1 and COL6A1 accumulated in enlarged perivascular spaces in patients with sporadic ALS. Moreover, in plasma of 574 patients with ALS from four independent cohorts, increased levels of SPP1 at disease diagnosis repeatedly predicted shorter survival with stronger effect than the established risk factors of bulbar onset or neurofilament levels in cerebrospinal fluid. We propose that the activity of the recently discovered perivascular fibroblast can predict survival of patients with ALS and provide a new conceptual framework to re-evaluate definitions of ALS etiology.

Comparison of the ability of the King's and MiToS staging systems to predict disease progression and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Background: Assessing clinical progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) remains a challenge. We evaluated the validity and predictive capabilities of the King's and Milano-Torino Staging (MiToS) systems in a cohort of patients with ALS to demonstrate their benefit in clinical practice.Methodology: A cohort study was performed by including ALS incident cases in a referral center from 2007 to 2016. The staging systems were determined at time of diagnosis and follow-up. The standardized median times to reach each stage were computed. A multi-state model in the framework of the Cox model evaluated the predictive value of measurements. The survival C-statistic was reported as a measure of prediction ability.Results: Overall, 298 incident cases were included. The King's and MiToS systems described a progressive increase in the risk of dying with each elapsed stage. However, a lower resolution for late disease description for the King's system was observed, and late stages overlapped for the MiToS system. Slight variations in the staging systems appeared to improve performance based on validity and prediction abilities: (i) in the King's (C-statistic = 0.783), by adding a new stage involving the need for both gastrostomy and NIV: (ii) in the MiToS (C-statistic = 0.792), by merging stage 3 and stage 4 into a single stage 3.Conclusion: Both King's and MiToS are valid systems but have certain limitations. Variations in the staging systems may provide a more suitable framework for describing progression and survival. Further research is needed to evaluate the variations in the staging systems.

Intuitive Staging Correlates With King's Clinical Stage

Background: Clinical stage in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) can be assigned using King's staging with a simple protocol based on the number of CNS regions involved and the presence of significant nutritional or respiratory failure. It is important that the assigned clinical stage matches expectations, and generally corresponds with how a health care professional would intuitively stage the patient. We therefore investigated the relationship between King's clinical ALS stage and ALS stage as intuitively assigned by health care professionals. Methods: We wrote 17 case vignettes describing people with ALS at different disease stages from very early limited disease involvement through to severe, multi-domain disease. During two workshops, we asked health care professionals to intuitively stage the vignettes and compared the answers with the actual King's clinical ALS stage. Results: There was a good correlation between King's clinical ALS stage and intuitively assigned stage, with a Spearman's Rank correlation coefficient of 0.64 (p < 0.001). There was no difference in the intuitive stages assigned by practitioners of different types or at different levels of experience. Conclusions: Across a spectrum of ALS scenarios, King's clinical ALS stage corresponds to intuitive ALS stage as assigned by a range of health care professionals.

Chinese validation of the Rasch-Built Overall Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Disability Scale

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The Rasch-Built Overall Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Disability Scale (ROADS) was developed using Rasch methodology. This scale has been demonstrated as a reliable outcome measure of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) trials. To date, there are no similar interval-weighted scales to assess disability in ALS patients. The current study aimed to validate a Chinese version of the ROADS via Rasch methodology.

METHODS

The Chinese version of the ROADS was obtained through a standardized forward-backward translation and cultural adaptation. ALS patients were recruited from the Department of Neurology of Peking University Third Hospital in Beijing, China to complete the ROADS and the revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R). Overall, 254 participants with ALS finished the Chinese scale. Rasch analysis was performed on the ROADS for validation and the ALSFRS-R for comparison.

RESULTS

The Chinese version of the ROADS was modified according to the statistical results. A final 28-question scale was constructed that fulfilled all the requirements of the Rasch model with proper validity and reliability. Furthermore, the ROADS showed improved item targeting compared to the ALSFRS-R. Conversely, the ALSFRS-R did not fit the Rasch model expectations due to misfit values and disordered thresholds for all 12 items.

CONCLUSIONS

The Chinese adaptation of the ROADS is a linearly weighted scale that specifically captures overall disability in ALS patients. This scale indicates a wider range of item difficulties and better responsiveness than the ALSFRS-R. The ROADS could be used as a valuable tool for use in ALS trials and in the clinic in Chinese settings.

Prognostic models for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Increasing prognostic models for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) have been developed. However, no comprehensive evaluation of these models has been done. The purpose of this study was to map the prognostic models for ALS to assess their potential contribution and suggest future improvements on modeling strategy.

METHODS

Databases including Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane library were searched from inception to 20 February 2021. All studies developing and/or validating prognostic models for ALS were selected. Information regarding modelling method and methodological quality was extracted.

RESULTS

A total of 28 studies describing the development of 34 models and the external validation of 19 models were included. The outcomes concerned were ALS progression (n = 12; 35%), change in weight (n = 1; 3%), respiratory insufficiency (n = 2; 6%), and survival (n = 19; 56%). Among the models predicting ALS progression or survival, the most frequently used predictors were age, ALS Functional Rating Scale/ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised, site of onset, and disease duration. The modelling method adopted most was machine learning (n = 16; 47%). Most of the models (n = 25; 74%) were not presented. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in 12 (35%) and 2 (6%) models, respectively. Only one model by Westeneng et al. (Lancet Neurol 17:423-433, 2018) was assessed with overall low risk of bias and it performed well in both discrimination and calibration, suggesting a relatively reliable model for practice.

CONCLUSIONS

This study systematically reviewed the prognostic models for ALS. Their usefulness is questionable due to several methodological pitfalls and the lack of external validation done by fully independent researchers. Future research should pay more attention to the addition of novel promising predictors, external validation, and head-to-head comparisons of existing models.

Early weight instability is associated with cognitive decline and poor survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to measure the monthly rate of weight loss during 6 months prior to a diagnosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and to explore the effect on prognosis.

METHODS

We enrolled 522 patients free from eating difficulties and with short diagnostic delay between June 2014 to June 2019. The calculating formula for the monthly rate of weight loss=[(weight at baseline-weight at diagnosis)/(weight at baseline*100 %)]/time interval. We employed logistic regression analysis to reveal any association between weight loss and cognitive dysfunction. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Weight loss was observed in 272 patients (52.1 %). Patients with severe weight loss had an older age of onset, a lower ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised score, a faster disease progression rate, and higher frequencies of executive dysfunction and cognitive decline. The monthly rate of weight loss was associated with executive dysfunction and cognitive decline after adjusting for the emotional state. The stratified monthly rate of weight loss was strongly and independently related to ALS survival after adjusting for confounding factors (HR = 1.473, P trend<0.001). Each upper ladder of the rate of weight loss was correlated with worse survival and a 47.3 % (95 % CI: 25.0-73.6 %) increased risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight loss is very common in patients with ALS and is associated with poor survival. It is also associated with executive dysfunction and cognitive decline. An important mechanism of weight loss in the early stage of this disease may be hypermetabolism.

Incidence, Prevalence, and Geographical Clustering of Motor Neuron Disease in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

To assess time trends in motor neuron disease (MND) incidence, prevalence, and mortality and to investigate geographic clustering of MND cases in the Netherlands from 1998 to 2017, we analyzed data from the Netherlands Personal Records database, the Netherlands MND Center, and the Netherlands Patient Association of Neuromuscular Diseases.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, Poisson regression was used to assess time trends in MND risk. We calculated age- and sex-standardized, observed, and expected cases for 1,694 areas. Bayesian smoothed risk mapping was used to investigate geographic MND risk.

RESULTS

We identified 7,992 MND cases, reflecting an incidence of 2.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.62-2.67) per 100,000 person-years and a prevalence of 9.5 (95% CI 9.1-10.0) per 100,000 persons. Highest age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates occurred at a later age in men than in women (p < 0.001). Unadjusted mortality rates increased by 53.2% from 2.57 per 100,000 person-years in 1998 to 3.86 per 100,000 person-years in 2017. After adjustment for age and sex, an increase in MND mortality rate of 14.1% (95% CI 5.7%-23.2%, p < 0.001) remained. MND relative risk ranged from 0.78 to 1.43 between geographic areas; multiple urban and rural high-risk areas were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a significant national increase in MND mortality from 1998 through 2017, explained only partly by an aging Dutch population, and a geographic variability in MND risk, suggesting a role for environmental or demographic risk factors.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) prediction model derived from plasma and CSF biomarkers

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a degenerative disorder of motor neurons which leads to complete loss of movement in patients. The only FDA approved drug Riluzole provides only symptomatic relief to patients. Early Diagnosis of the disease warrants the importance of diagnostic and prognostic models for predicting disease and disease progression respectively. In the present study we represent the predictive statistical model for ALS using plasma and CSF biomarkers. Forward stepwise (Binary likelihood) Logistic regression model is developed for prediction of ALS. The model has been shown to have excellent validity (94%) with good sensitivity (98%) and specificity (93%). The area under the ROC curve is 99.3%. Along with age and BMI, VEGF (Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor), VEGFR2 (Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor 2) and TDP43 (TAR DNA Binding Protein 43) in CSF and VEGFR2 and OPTN (Optineurin) in plasma are good predictors of ALS.

Disease aggressiveness signatures of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in white matter tracts revealed by the D50 disease progression model

Numerous neuroimaging studies in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) have reported links between structural changes and clinical data; however phenotypic and disease course heterogeneity have occluded robust associations. The present study used the novel D50 model, which distinguishes between disease accumulation and aggressiveness, to probe correlations with measures of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). DTI scans of 145 ALS patients and 69 controls were analyzed using tract-based-spatial-statistics of fractional anisotropy (FA), mean- (MD), radial (RD), and axial diffusivity (AD) maps. Intergroup contrasts were calculated between patients and controls, and between ALS subgroups: based on (a) the individual disease covered (Phase I vs. II) or b) patients' disease aggressiveness (D50 value). Regression analyses were used to probe correlations with model-derived parameters. Case-control comparisons revealed widespread ALS-related white matter pathology with decreased FA and increased MD/RD. These affected pathways showed also correlations with the accumulated disease for increased MD/RD, driven by the subgroup of Phase I patients. No significant differences were noted between patients in Phase I and II for any of the contrasts. Patients with high disease aggressiveness (D50 < 30 months) displayed increased AD/MD in bifrontal and biparietal pathways, which was corroborated by significant voxel-wise regressions with D50. Application of the D50 model revealed associations between DTI measures and ALS pathology in Phase I, representing individual disease accumulation early in disease. Patients' overall disease aggressiveness correlated robustly with the extent of DTI changes. We recommend the D50 model for studies developing/validating neuroimaging or other biomarkers for ALS.

Chitotriosidase as biomarker for early stage amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a multicenter study

Objective: Levels of chitotriosidase (CHIT1) are increased in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients reflecting microglial activation. Here, we determine the diagnostic and prognostic potential of CHIT1 for early symptomatic ALS. Methods: Overall, 275 patients from 8 European neurological centers were examined. We included ALS with <6 and >6 months from symptom onset, other motoneuron diseases (oMND), ALS mimics (DCon) and non-neurodegenerative controls (Con). CSF CHIT1 levels were analyzed for diagnostic power and association with progression and survival in comparison to the benchmark neurofilament. The 24-bp duplication polymorphism of CHIT1 was analyzed in a subset of patients (N = 65). Results: Homozygous CHIT1 duplication mutation carriers (9%) invariably had undetectable CSF CHIT1 levels, while heterozygous carriers had similar levels as patients with wildtype CHIT1 (p = 0.414). In both early and late symptomatic ALS CHIT1 levels was increased, did not correlate with patients' progression rates, and was higher in patients diagnosed with higher diagnostic certainty. Neurofilament levels correlated with CHIT1 levels and prevailed over CHIT1 regarding diagnostic performance. Both CHIT1 and neurofilaments were identified as independent predictors of survival in late but not early symptomatic ALS. Evidence is provided that CHIT1 predicts progression in El Escorial diagnostic category in the group of ALS cases with a short duration. Conclusions: CSF CHIT1 level may have additional value in the prognostication of ALS patients with a short history of symptoms classified in diagnostic categories of lower clinical certainty. To fully interpret apparently low CHIT1 levels knowledge of CHIT1 genotype is needed.