Future productivity and carbon storage limited by terrestrial nutrient availability

Symbiotic N fixation is sufficient to support net aboveground biomass accumulation in a humid tropical forest

Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation has been shown to support carbon storage in young regenerating tropical forests, but N-fixing trees can also be strong competitors with non-fixing trees, making it unclear which mechanism drives long term patterns in biomass accretion. Many tropical forests have excess N, but factors such as rising atmospheric CO₂ or selective cutting practices might induce additional N demand. Here we combine decades of stem inventory data, in-situ measures of symbiotic N fixation, and simulations of N demand to evaluate demographic and biogeochemical controls on biomass dynamics in legume-rich lowland forests of Trinidad. We document sustained net biomass accumulation and high rates of N fixation in these forests, regardless of the timing of selective timber harvests, including an old growth stand. The biomass accumulation was explained by growth of non-fixing trees, not N-fixing trees, but the total amount of symbiotic N fixation was sufficient to account for most of net above ground N demands, suggesting that N-fixers could contribute to the long-term C sink in these forests via fertilizing non-fixers.

Application of Risk-Based, Adaptive Pathways to Climate Adaptation Planning for Public Conservation Areas in NSW, Australia

Globally, areas of high-quality wildlife habitat of significant environmental value are at risk of permanent damage from climate change. These areas represent social-ecological systems that will require increasing management intervention to maintain their biological and socio-cultural values. Managers of protected areas have begun to recognize the inevitability of ecosystem change and the need to embrace dynamic approaches to intervention. However, significant uncertainty remains about the onset and severity of some impacts, which makes planning difficult. For Indigenous communities, there are intrinsic links between cultural heritage and the conservation of place and biodiversity that need to be better integrated in protected area planning and management. In New South Wales, Australia, management of public conservation reserves and national parks is the responsibility of a State government agency, the National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS). This paper describes the outcomes of a participatory planning process with NPWS staff to, firstly, identify the options available, the available ‘tool kit’, to manage biodiversity and cultural heritage in protected areas; secondly, explore how the selection of management actions from the ‘tool kit’ is associated with the level of climate risk to biodiversity or cultural heritage assets; and thirdly, to understand how the form of individual management actions might adapt to changes in climate risk. Combining these three elements into a series of risk-based, adaptive pathways for conservation of biodiversity and cultural heritage is a novel approach that is currently supporting place-based planning for public conservation areas. Incorporation of the trade-offs and synergies in seeking to effectively manage these discrete but related types of values and the implications for conservation practice are discussed.

Nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change under elevated nitrogen deposition

Biological nitrogen fixation can fuel CO₂ sequestration by forests but can also stimulate soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O), a potent greenhouse gas. Here we use a theoretical model to suggest that symbiotic nitrogen-fixing trees could either mitigate (CO₂ sequestration outweighs soil N₂O emissions) or exacerbate (vice versa) climate change relative to non-fixing trees, depending on their nitrogen fixation strategy (the degree to which they regulate nitrogen fixation to balance nitrogen supply and demand) and on nitrogen deposition. The model posits that nitrogen-fixing trees could exacerbate climate change globally relative to non-fixing trees by the radiative equivalent of 0.77 Pg C yr⁻¹ under nitrogen deposition rates projected for 2030. This value is highly uncertain, but its magnitude suggests that this subject requires further study and that improving the representation of biological nitrogen fixation in climate models could substantially decrease estimates of the extent to which forests will mitigate climate change.

The balance between CO₂ sequestration by forests and soil N₂O emissions is poorly constrained. Here, the authors use a theoretical model to demonstrate that symbiotic N₂-fixing trees can either mitigate climate change or exacerbate it relative to non-fixing trees.

Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests

Forests regulate climate, as carbon, water and nutrient fluxes are modified by physiological processes of vegetation and soil. Forests also provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming projected for the boreal zone may change the provision of these ecosystem services. We demonstrate model based estimates of present and future ecosystem services related to carbon cycling of boreal forests. The services were derived from biophysical variables calculated by two dynamic models. Future changes in the biophysical variables were driven by climate change scenarios obtained as results of a sample of global climate models downscaled for Finland, assuming three future pathways of radiative forcing. We introduce continuous monitoring on phenology to be used in model parametrization through a webcam network with automated image processing features. In our analysis, climate change impacts on key boreal forest ecosystem services are both beneficial and detrimental. Our results indicate an increase in annual forest growth of about 60% and an increase in annual carbon sink of roughly 40% from the reference period (1981-2010) to the end of the century. The vegetation active period was projected to start about 3 weeks earlier and end ten days later by the end of the century compared to currently. We found a risk for increasing drought, and a decrease in the number of soil frost days. Our results show a considerable uncertainty in future provision of boreal forest ecosystem services.

Prediction of CH4 emissions from potential natural wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century

The alpine wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are ecosystems vulnerable to global climate change. It has been recognized that future climate change may have a significant impact on methane (CH₄) emissions from the plateau, while less attention has been paid to predicting temporal and spatial variations in CH₄ emissions from TP natural wetlands. In this study, we used an integrated model framework based on the CH4MOD_wetland, TOPMODEL and TEM models to predict CH₄ emissions from potential natural wetlands on the TP under IPCC AR5 scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The model estimates suggest that the mean area-weighted CH₄ fluxes will increase from 4.45 ± 0.42 g m^-2 yr^-1 in 2006 to 4.79 ± 0.72, 5.99 ± 0.85 and 11.53 ± 1.33 g m^-2 yr^-1 under 3 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios), respectively, by 2100. The dominant drivers stimulating CH₄ emissions are air temperature, precipitation and net primary productivity (NPP). Spatially, CH₄ fluxes and emissions showed a decreasing trend from south to north and from east to west. In response to climate change, a total of 0.42 ± 0.06, 0.54 ± 0.09 and 1.01 ± 0.12 Tg yr^-1 of CH₄ emissions will be emitted from the TP's potential natural wetlands by the end of this century under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Sensitivity of global soil carbon stocks to combined nutrient enrichment

Soil stores approximately twice as much carbon as the atmosphere and fluctuations in the size of the soil carbon pool directly influence climate conditions. We used the Nutrient Network global change experiment to examine how anthropogenic nutrient enrichment might influence grassland soil carbon storage at a global scale. In isolation, enrichment of nitrogen and phosphorous had minimal impacts on soil carbon storage. However, when these nutrients were added in combination with potassium and micronutrients, soil carbon stocks changed considerably, with an average increase of 0.04 KgCm^-2  year^-1 (standard deviation 0.18 KgCm^-2  year^-1 ). These effects did not correlate with changes in primary productivity, suggesting that soil carbon decomposition may have been restricted. Although nutrient enrichment caused soil carbon gains most dry, sandy regions, considerable absolute losses of soil carbon may occur in high-latitude regions that store the majority of the world's soil carbon. These mechanistic insights into the sensitivity of grassland carbon stocks to nutrient enrichment can facilitate biochemical modelling efforts to project carbon cycling under future climate scenarios.

Projections of water, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics under future climate change in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range using a biogeochemical model

Statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from four General Circulation Models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were applied as inputs to a biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to examine potential future dynamics of water, carbon, and nitrogen in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest in the western Cascade Range. Projections show 56% to 77% increases in stomatal conductance throughout the year from 1986-2010 to 2076-2100, and 65% to 104% increases in leaf carbon assimilation between October and June over the same period. However, future dynamics of water and carbon under the RCP scenarios are affected by a 49% to 86% reduction in foliar biomass resulting from severe air temperature and humidity stress to the forest in summer. Important implications of future decreases in foliar biomass include 1) 20% to 71% decreases in annual transpiration which increase soil moisture by 7% to 15% in summer and fall; 2) decreases in photosynthesis by 77% and soil organic matter by 62% under the high radiative forcing scenario; and 3) altered foliar and soil carbon to nitrogen stoichiometry. Potential carbon dioxide fertilization effects on vegetation are projected to 1) amplify decreases in transpiration by 4% to 9% and increases in soil moisture in summer and fall by 1% to 2%; and 2) alleviate decreases in photosynthesis by 4%; while 3) having negligible effects on the dynamics of nitrogen. Our projections suggest that future decrease in transpiration and moderate water holding capacity may mitigate soil moisture stress to the old-growth Douglas-fir forest. Future increases in nitrogen concentration in soil organic matter are projected to alleviate the decrease in net nitrogen mineralization despite a reduction in decomposition of soil organic matter by the end of the century.

Effects of stand age on carbon storage in dragon spruce forest ecosystems in the upper reaches of the Bailongjiang River basin, China

At an ecosystem level, stand age has a significant influence on carbon storage (CS). Dragon spruce (Picea asperata Mast.) situated along the upper reaches of the Bailongjiang River in northwest China were categorized into three age classes (29-32 years, Y₁; 34-39 years, Y₂; 40-46 years, Y₃), and age-related differences in total carbon storage (TCS) of the forest ecosystem were investigated for the first time. Results showed that TCS for the Y₁, Y₂, and the Y₃ age groups were 323.64, 240.66 and 174.60 Mg ha^-1, respectively. The average TCS of the three age groups was 255.65 Mg C ha^-1, with above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, litter, and soil in the top 0.6 m contributing 15.0%, 3.7%, 12.1%, and 69.2%, respectively. CS in soil and TCS of the Y₁ age group both significantly exceeded those of the Y₃ age group (P < 0.05). Contrary to other recent findings, the present study supports the hypothesis that TCS is likely to decrease as stand age increases. This indicates that natural resource managers should rejuvenate forests by routinely thinning older stands, thereby not only achieving vegetation restoration, but also allowing these stands to create a long-term carbon sink for this important eco-region.

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Dynamics of CH₄ Fluxes from Rice Paddies of Cold Region in Heilongjiang Province under Climate Change

Paddy fields have become a major global anthropogenic CH₄ emission source, and climate change affects CH₄ emissions from paddy ecosystems by changing crop growth and the soil environment. It has been recognized that Heilongjiang Province has become an important source of CH₄ emission due to its dramatically increased rice planting area, while less attention has been paid to characterize the effects of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of CH₄ fluxes. In this study, we used the calibrated and validated Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model and DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate historical and future CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of four global climate models (GCMs) in Heilongjiang Province. During 1960–2015, the average CH₄ fluxes and climatic tendencies were 145.56 kg C/ha and 11.88 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively. Spatially, the CH₄ fluxes showed a decreasing trend from west to east, and the climatic tendencies in the northern and western parts were higher. During 2021–2080, the annual average CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to be 213.46 kg C/ha and 252.19 kg C/ha, respectively, and their spatial distributions were similar to the historical distribution. The average climatic tendencies were 13.40 kg C/ha/(10a) and 29.86 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively, which decreased from west to east. The simulation scenario analysis showed that atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature affected CH₄ fluxes by changing soil organic carbon (SOC) content and plant biomass. This study indicated that a paddy ecosystem in a cold region is an important part of China’s greenhouse gas emission inventory in future scenarios.

Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought's impact on plant productivity

The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0-6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO₂.

Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics

Although the existence of a large carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems is well-established, the drivers of this sink remain uncertain. It has been suggested that perturbations to forest demography caused by past land-use change, management, and natural disturbances may be causing a large component of current carbon uptake. Here we use a global compilation of forest age observations, combined with a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit modeling of forest regrowth, to partition the global forest carbon sink between old-growth and regrowth stands over the period 1981-2010. For 2001-2010 we find a carbon sink of 0.85 (0.66-0.96) Pg year^-1 located in intact old-growth forest, primarily in the moist tropics and boreal Siberia, and 1.30 (1.03-1.96) Pg year^-1 located in stands regrowing after past disturbance. Approaching half of the sink in regrowth stands would have occurred from demographic changes alone, in the absence of other environmental changes. These age-constrained results show consistency with those simulated using an ensemble of demographically-enabled terrestrial biosphere models following an independent reconstruction of historical land use and management. We estimate that forests will accumulate an additional 69 (44-131) Pg C in live biomass from changes in demography alone if natural disturbances, wood harvest, and reforestation continue at rates comparable to those during 1981-2010. Our results confirm that it is not possible to understand the current global terrestrial carbon sink without accounting for the sizeable sink due to forest demography. They also imply that a large portion of the current terrestrial carbon sink is strictly transient in nature.

Tree-ring isotopes capture interannual vegetation productivity dynamics at the biome scale

Historical and future trends in net primary productivity (NPP) and its sensitivity to global change are largely unknown because of the lack of long-term, high-resolution data. Here we test whether annually resolved tree-ring stable carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotopes can be used as proxies for reconstructing past NPP. Stable isotope chronologies from four sites within three distinct hydroclimatic environments in the eastern United States (US) were compared in time and space against satellite-derived NPP products, including the long-term Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g) NPP (1982–2011), the newest high-resolution Landsat NPP (1986–2015), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 2001–2015) NPP. We show that tree-ring isotopes, in particular δ¹⁸O, correlate strongly with satellite NPP estimates at both local and large geographical scales in the eastern US. These findings represent an important breakthrough for estimating interannual variability and long-term changes in terrestrial productivity at the biome scale.

Historical and future trends in net primary productivity (NPP) and its sensitivity to global change are largely unknown because of the lack of long-term, high-resolution data. Here the authors show that tree-ring isotopes can be used for inferring interannual variability and long-term changes in NPP.

Biogeochemical recuperation of lowland tropical forest during succession

High rates of land conversion and land use change have vastly increased the proportion of secondary forest in the lowland tropics relative to mature forest. As secondary forests recover following abandonment, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) must be present in sufficient quantities to sustain high rates of net primary production and to replenish the nutrients lost during land use prior to secondary forest establishment. Biogeochemical theory and results from individual studies suggest that N can recuperate during secondary forest recovery, especially relative to P. Here, we synthesized 23 metrics of N and P in soil and plants from 45 secondary forest chronosequences located in the wet tropics to empirically explore (1) whether there is a consistent change in nutrients and nutrient cycling processes during secondary succession in the biome; (2) which metrics of N and P in soil and plants recuperate most consistently; (3) if the recuperation of nutrients during succession approaches similar nutrient concentrations and fluxes as those in mature forest in ~100 yr following the initiation of succession; and (4) whether site characteristics, including disturbance history, climate, and soil order are significantly related to nutrient recuperation. During secondary forest succession, nine metrics of N and/or P cycling changed consistently and substantially. In most sites, N concentrations and fluxes in both plants and soil increased during secondary succession, and total P concentrations increased in surface soil. Changes in nutrient concentrations and nutrient cycling processes during secondary succession were similar whether mature forest was included or excluded from the analysis, indicating that nutrient recuperation in secondary forest leads to biogeochemical conditions that are similar to those of mature forest. Further, of the N and P metrics that recuperated, only soil total P and foliar δ¹⁵ N were strongly influenced by site characteristics like climate, soils, or disturbance history. Predictable nutrient recuperation across a diverse and productive ecosystem may support future forest growth and could provide a means to quantify successful restoration of ecosystem function in secondary tropical forest beyond biomass or species composition.

Modelling carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial vegetation

Contents Summary 652 I. Introduction 652 II. Discrepancy in predicting the effects of rising [CO₂ ] on the terrestrial C sink 655 III. Carbon and nutrient storage in plants and its modelling 656 IV. Modelling the source and the sink: a plant perspective 657 V. Plant-scale water and Carbon flux models 660 VI. Challenges for the future 662 Acknowledgements 663 Authors contributions 663 References 663 SUMMARY: The increase in atmospheric CO₂ in the future is one of the most certain projections in environmental sciences. Understanding whether vegetation carbon assimilation, growth, and changes in vegetation carbon stocks are affected by higher atmospheric CO₂ and translating this understanding in mechanistic vegetation models is of utmost importance. This is highlighted by inconsistencies between global-scale studies that attribute terrestrial carbon sinks to CO₂ stimulation of gross and net primary production on the one hand, and forest inventories, tree-scale studies, and plant physiological evidence showing a much less pronounced CO₂ fertilization effect on the other hand. Here, we review how plant carbon sources and sinks are currently described in terrestrial biosphere models. We highlight an uneven representation of complexity between the modelling of photosynthesis and other processes, such as plant respiration, direct carbon sinks, and carbon allocation, largely driven by available observations. Despite a general lack of data on carbon sink dynamics to drive model improvements, ways forward toward a mechanistic representation of plant carbon sinks are discussed, leveraging on results obtained from plant-scale models and on observations geared toward model developments.

Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake

Although the terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 25 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the rate of land carbon uptake remains highly uncertain, leading to uncertainties in climate projections1,2. Understanding the factors that limit or drive land carbon storage is therefore important for improving climate predictions. One potential limiting factor for land carbon uptake is soil moisture, which can reduce gross primary production through ecosystem water stress3,4, cause vegetation mortality5 and further exacerbate climate extremes due to land-atmosphere feedbacks6. Previous work has explored the impact of soil-moisture availability on past carbon-flux variability3,7,8. However, the influence of soil-moisture variability and trends on the long-term carbon sink and the mechanisms responsible for associated carbon losses remain uncertain. Here we use the data output from four Earth system models9 from a series of experiments to analyse the responses of terrestrial net biome productivity to soil-moisture changes, and find that soil-moisture variability and trends induce large CO2 fluxes (about two to three gigatons of carbon per year; comparable with the land carbon sink itself1) throughout the twenty-first century. Subseasonal and interannual soil-moisture variability generate CO2 as a result of the nonlinear response of photosynthesis and net ecosystem exchange to soil-water availability and of the increased temperature and vapour pressure deficit caused by land-atmosphere interactions. Soil-moisture variability reduces the present land carbon sink, and its increase and drying trends in several regions are expected to reduce it further. Our results emphasize that the capacity of continents to act as a future carbon sink critically depends on the nonlinear response of carbon fluxes to soil moisture and on land-atmosphere interactions. This suggests that the increasing trend in carbon uptake rate may not be sustained past the middle of the century and could result in accelerated atmospheric CO2 growth.

Multi 'omics comparison reveals metabolome biochemistry, not microbiome composition or gene expression, corresponds to elevated biogeochemical function in the hyporheic zone

Biogeochemical hotspots are pervasive at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, particularly within groundwater-surface water mixing zones (hyporheic zones), and they are critical to understanding spatiotemporal variation in biogeochemical cycling. Here, we use multi 'omic comparisons of hotspots to low-activity sediments to gain mechanistic insight into hyporheic zone organic matter processing. We hypothesized that microbiome structure and function, as described by metagenomics and metaproteomics, would distinguish hotspots from low-activity sediments by shifting metabolism towards carbohydrate-utilizing pathways and elucidate discrete mechanisms governing organic matter processing in each location. We also expected these differences to be reflected in the metabolome, whereby hotspot carbon (C) pools and metabolite transformations therein would be enriched in sugar-associated compounds. In contrast to expectations, we found pronounced phenotypic plasticity in the hyporheic zone microbiome that was denoted by similar microbiome structure, functional potential, and expression across sediments with dissimilar metabolic rates. Instead, diverse nitrogenous metabolites and biochemical transformations characterized hotspots. Metabolomes also corresponded more strongly to aerobic metabolism than bulk C or N content only (explaining 67% vs. 42% and 37% of variation respectively), and bulk C and N did not improve statistical models based on metabolome composition alone. These results point to organic nitrogen as a significant regulatory factor influencing hyporheic zone organic matter processing. Based on our findings, we propose incorporating knowledge of metabolic pathways associated with different chemical fractions of C pools into ecosystem models will enhance prediction accuracy.

Enhanced peak growth of global vegetation and its key mechanisms

The annual peak growth of vegetation is critical in characterizing the capacity of terrestrial ecosystem productivity and shaping the seasonality of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The recent greening of global lands suggests an increasing trend of terrestrial vegetation growth, but whether or not the peak growth has been globally enhanced still remains unclear. Here, we use two global datasets of gross primary productivity (GPP) and a satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize recent changes in annual peak vegetation growth (that is, GPP_max and NDVI_max). We demonstrate that the peak in the growth of global vegetation has been linearly increasing during the past three decades. About 65% of the NDVI_max variation is evenly explained by expanding croplands (21%), rising CO₂ (22%) and intensifying nitrogen deposition (22%). The contribution of expanding croplands to the peak growth trend is substantiated by measurements from eddy-flux towers, sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and a global database of plant traits, all of which demonstrate that croplands have a higher photosynthetic capacity than other vegetation types. The large contribution of CO₂ is also supported by a meta-analysis of 466 manipulative experiments and 15 terrestrial biosphere models. Furthermore, we show that the contribution of GPP_max to the change in annual GPP is less in the tropics than in other regions. These multiple lines of evidence reveal an increasing trend in the peak growth of global vegetation. The findings highlight the important roles of agricultural intensification and atmospheric changes in reshaping the seasonality of global vegetation growth.

Nitrogen-induced new net primary production and carbon sequestration in global forests

Nitrogen (N) deposition and biological N fixation (BNF) are main external N inputs into terrestrial ecosystems. However, few studies have simultaneously quantified the contribution of these two external N inputs to global NPP and consequent C sequestration. Based on literature analysis, we estimated new net primary production (NPP) due to external N inputs from BNF and N deposition and the consequent C sinks in global boreal, temperate and tropical forest biomes via a stoichiometric scaling approach. Nitrogen-induced new NPP is estimated to be 3.48 Pg C yr^-1 in global established forests and contributes to a C sink of 1.83 Pg C yr^-1. More specifically, the aboveground and belowground new NPP are estimated to be 2.36 and 1.12 Pg C yr^-1, while the external N-induced C sinks in wood and soil are estimated to be 1.51 and 0.32 Pg C yr^-1, respectively. BNF contributes to a major proportion of N-induced new NPP (3.07 Pg C yr^-1) in global forest, and accounts for a C sink of 1.58 Pg C yr^-1. Compared with BNF, N deposition only makes a minor contribution to new NPP (0.41 Pg C yr^-1) and C sinks (0.25 Pg C yr^-1) in global forests. At the biome scale, rates of N-induced new NPP and C sink show an increase from boreal forest towards tropical forest, as mainly driven by an increase of BNF. In contrast, N deposition leads to a larger C sink in temperate forest (0.11 Pg C yr^-1) than boreal (0.06 Pg C yr^-1) and tropical forest (0.08 Pg C yr^-1). Our estimate of total C sink due to N-induced new NPP approximately matches an independent assessment of total C sink in global established forests, suggesting that external N inputs by BNF and atmospheric deposition are key drivers of C sinks in global forests.

Favorable effect of mycorrhizae on biomass production efficiency exceeds their carbon cost in a fertilization experiment

Biomass production efficiency (BPE), the ratio of biomass production to photosynthesis, varies greatly among ecosystems and typically increases with increasing nutrient availability. Reduced carbon partitioning to mycorrhizal fungi (i.e., per unit photosynthesis) is the hypothesized underlying mechanism, as mycorrhizal abundance and plant dependence on these symbionts typically decrease with increasing nutrient availability. In a mesocosm experiment with Zea mays, we investigated the effect of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) addition and of mycorrhizal inoculation on BPE. Photosynthesis and respiration were measured at mesocosm scale and at leaf scale. The growth of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) was assessed with ingrowth bags while also making use of the difference in δ¹³ C between C₄ plants and C₃ soil. Mesocosms without AMF, that is, with pasteurized soil, were used to further explore the role of AMF. Plant growth, photosynthesis, and BPE were positively affected by P, but not by N addition. AMF biomass also was slightly higher under P addition, but carbon partitioning to AMF was significantly lower than without P addition. Interestingly, in the absence of AMF, plants that did not receive P died prematurely. Our study confirmed the hypothesis that BPE increases with increasing nutrient availability, and that carbon partitioning to AMF plays a key role in this nutrient effect. The comparison of inoculated vs. pasteurized mesocosms further suggested a lower carbon cost of nutrient uptake via AMF than via other mechanisms under nutrient rich conditions.

Future biomass carbon sequestration capacity of Chinese forests

Chinese forests, characterized by relatively young stand age, represent a significant biomass carbon (C) sink over the past several decades. Nevertheless, it is unclear how forest biomass C sequestration capacity in China will evolve as forest age, climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration change continuously. Here, we present a semi-empirical model that incorporates forest age and climatic factors for each forest type to estimate the effects of forest age and climate change on total forest biomass, under three different scenarios based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We estimate that age-related forest biomass C sequestration to be 6.69 Pg C (∼0.17 Pg C a^-1) from the 2000s to the 2040s. Climate change induces a rather weak increase in total forest biomass C sequestration (0.52-0.60 Pg C by the 2040s). We show that rising CO₂ concentrations could further increase the total forest biomass C sequestration by 1.68-3.12 Pg C in the 2040s across all three scenarios. Overall, the total forest biomass in China would increase by 8.89-10.37 Pg C by the end of 2040s. Our findings highlight the benefits of Chinese afforestation programs, continued climate change and increasing CO₂ concentration in sustaining the forest biomass C sink in the near future, and could therefore be useful for designing more realistic climate change mitigation policies such as continuous forestation programs and careful choice of tree species.

Effects of altered dry season length and plant inputs on soluble soil carbon

Soil moisture controls microbial activity and soil carbon cycling. Because microbial activity decreases as soils dry, decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is thought to decrease with increasing drought length. Yet, microbial biomass and a pool of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC) can increase as soils dry, perhaps implying microbes may continue to break down SOM even if drought stressed. Here, we test the hypothesis that WEOC increases as soils dry because exoenzymes continue to break down litter, while their products accumulate because they cannot diffuse to microbes. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated field plots by cutting off litter inputs and by irrigating and excluding precipitation inputs to extend or shorten the length of the dry season. We expected that the longer the soils would remain dry, the more WEOC would accumulate in the presence of litter, whereas shortening the length of the dry season, or cutting off litter inputs, would reduce WEOC accumulation. Lastly, we incubated grass roots in the laboratory and measured the concentration of reducing sugars and potential hydrolytic enzyme activities, strictly to understand the mechanisms whereby exoenzymes break down litter over the dry season. As expected, extending dry season length increased WEOC concentrations by 30% above the 108 μg C/g measured in untreated plots, whereas keeping soils moist prevented WEOC from accumulating. Contrary to our hypothesis, excluding plant litter inputs actually increased WEOC concentrations by 40% above the 105 μg C/g measured in plots with plants. Reducing sugars did not accumulate in dry senesced roots in our laboratory incubation. Potential rates of reducing sugar production by hydrolytic enzymes ranged from 0.7 to 10 μmol·g^-1 ·h^-1 and far exceeded the rates of reducing sugar accumulation (~0.001 μmol·g^-1 ·h^-1 ). Our observations do not support the hypothesis that exoenzymes continue to break down litter to produce WEOC in dry soils. Instead, we develop the argument that physical processes are more likely to govern short-term WEOC dynamics via slaking of microaggregates that stabilize SOM and through WEOC redistribution when soils wet up, as well as through less understood effects of drought on the soil mineral matrix.

Patterns of plant carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentration in relation to productivity in China's terrestrial ecosystems

Plant nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content regulate productivity and carbon (C) sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. Estimates of the allocation of N and P content in plant tissues and the relationship between nutrient content and photosynthetic capacity are critical to predicting future ecosystem C sequestration under global change. In this study, by investigating the nutrient concentrations of plant leaves, stems, and roots across China's terrestrial biomes, we document large-scale patterns of community-level concentrations of C, N, and P. We also examine the possible correlation between nutrient content and plant production as indicated by vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP). The nationally averaged community concentrations of C, N, and P were 436.8, 14.14, and 1.11 mg·g^-1 for leaves; 448.3, 3.04 and 0.31 mg·g^-1 for stems; and 418.2, 4.85, and 0.47 mg·g^-1 for roots, respectively. The nationally averaged leaf N and P productivity was 249.5 g C GPP·g^-1 N·y^-1 and 3,157.9 g C GPP·g^-1 P·y^-1, respectively. The N and P concentrations in stems and roots were generally more sensitive to the abiotic environment than those in leaves. There were strong power-law relationships between N (or P) content in different tissues for all biomes, which were closely coupled with vegetation GPP. These findings not only provide key parameters to develop empirical models to scale the responses of plants to global change from a single tissue to the whole community but also offer large-scale evidence of biome-dependent regulation of C sequestration by nutrients.

Responses of soil organic carbon turnover to nitrogen deposition are associated with nitrogen input rates: Derived from soil 14C evidences

Elevated atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition has exerted profound influences on ecosystems. Understanding the effects of N deposition on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) is important in the studies of global carbon cycle. Although many studies have examined the effects of N deposition on SOC turnover using N addition experiments, the effects were reported to be different across studies. Thus, we lack a predictive understanding of how SOC turnover respond to atmospheric N deposition. The inconsistent results could be associated with ecosystem types and N addition rates. This study mainly wants to confirm the argument that the response of SOC turnover to N deposition is related with N input rates. We conducted a field experiment with multiple N addition levels (0, 3, 6, 12, and 24 g N m^-2·yr^-1) in Inner Mongolia Grassland, China. To better reveal the responses of SOC turnover to N enrichment, this study measured the soil ¹⁴C contents, because it can indicate SOC turnover directly. Compared with the control treatment (0 g N m^-2·yr^-1), N addition inhibits SOC turnover at the addition rate of 3 g N m^-2·yr^-1, whereas SOC turnover is not affected when N addition rate was 6, 12, and 24 g N m^-2·yr^-1. Our results suggest that N input rates affect the responses of SOC turnover to N enrichment. Thus, this study can confirm the argument mentioned above. Based on this study, it should be considered in the climate prediction model that varied atmospheric N deposition levels across regions may have different impacts on local SOC turnover. In addition, we also carried out a soil incubation to compare between the results obtained in incubation and that in ¹⁴C measurements. Two results are found to be inconsistent with each other. This indicates that soil respiration from incubation experiments could not comprehensively assess the effects of N deposition on SOC turnover.

Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models

Emerging insights into factors responsible for soil organic matter stabilization and decomposition are being applied in a variety of contexts, but new tools are needed to facilitate the understanding, evaluation, and improvement of soil biogeochemical theory and models at regional to global scales. To isolate the effects of model structural uncertainty on the global distribution of soil carbon stocks and turnover times we developed a soil biogeochemical testbed that forces three different soil models with consistent climate and plant productivity inputs. The models tested here include a first-order, microbial implicit approach (CASA-CNP), and two recently developed microbially explicit models that can be run at global scales (MIMICS and CORPSE). When forced with common environmental drivers, the soil models generated similar estimates of initial soil carbon stocks (roughly 1,400 Pg C globally, 0-100 cm), but each model shows a different functional relationship between mean annual temperature and inferred turnover times. Subsequently, the models made divergent projections about the fate of these soil carbon stocks over the 20^th century, with models either gaining or losing over 20 Pg C globally between 1901 and 2010. Single-forcing experiments with changed inputs, temperature, and moisture suggest that uncertainty associated with freeze-thaw processes as well as soil textural effects on soil carbon stabilization were larger than direct temperature uncertainties among models. Finally, the models generated distinct projections about the timing and magnitude of seasonal heterotrophic respiration rates, again reflecting structural uncertainties that were related to environmental sensitivities and assumptions about physicochemical stabilization of soil organic matter. By providing a computationally tractable and numerically consistent framework to evaluate models we aim to better understand uncertainties among models and generate insights about factors regulating the turnover of soil organic matter.

Nitrogen limitation of decomposition and decay: How can it occur?

The availability of nitrogen (N) is a critical control on the cycling and storage of soil carbon (C). Yet, there are conflicting conceptual models to explain how N availability influences the decomposition of organic matter by soil microbial communities. Several lines of evidence suggest that N availability limits decomposition; the earliest stages of leaf litter decay are associated with a net import of N from the soil environment, and both observations and models show that high N organic matter decomposes more rapidly. In direct contrast to these findings, experimental additions of inorganic N to soils broadly show a suppression of microbial activity, which is inconsistent with N limitation of decomposition. Resolving this apparent contradiction is critical to representing nutrient dynamics in predictive ecosystem models under a multitude of global change factors that alter soil N availability. Here, we propose a new conceptual framework, the Carbon, Acidity, and Mineral Protection hypothesis, to understand the effects of N availability on soil C cycling and storage and explore the predictions of this framework with a mathematical model. Our model simulations demonstrate that N addition can have opposing effects on separate soil C pools (particulate and mineral-protected carbon) because they are differentially affected by microbial biomass growth. Moreover, changes in N availability are frequently linked to shifts in soil pH or osmotic stress, which can independently affect microbial biomass dynamics and mask N stimulation of microbial activity. Thus, the net effect of N addition on soil C is dependent upon interactions among microbial physiology, soil mineralogy, and soil acidity. We believe that our synthesis provides a broadly applicable conceptual framework to understand and predict the effect of changes in soil N availability on ecosystem C cycling under global change.

Plant responses to fertilization experiments in lowland, species-rich, tropical forests

We present a meta-analysis of plant responses to fertilization experiments conducted in lowland, species-rich, tropical forests. We also update a key result and present the first species-level analyses of tree growth rates for a 15-yr factorial nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) experiment conducted in central Panama. The update concerns community-level tree growth rates, which responded significantly to the addition of N and K together after 10 yr of fertilization but not after 15 yr. Our experimental soils are infertile for the region, and species whose regional distributions are strongly associated with low soil P availability dominate the local tree flora. Under these circumstances, we expect muted responses to fertilization, and we predicted species associated with low-P soils would respond most slowly. The data did not support this prediction, species-level tree growth responses to P addition were unrelated to species-level soil P associations. The meta-analysis demonstrated that nutrient limitation is widespread in lowland tropical forests and evaluated two directional hypotheses concerning plant responses to N addition and to P addition. The meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that tree (or biomass) growth rate responses to fertilization are weaker in old growth forests and stronger in secondary forests, where rapid biomass accumulation provides a nutrient sink. The meta-analysis found no support for the long-standing hypothesis that plant responses are stronger for P addition and weaker for N addition. We do not advocate discarding the latter hypothesis. There are only 14 fertilization experiments from lowland, species-rich, tropical forests, 13 of the 14 experiments added nutrients for five or fewer years, and responses vary widely among experiments. Potential fertilization responses should be muted when the species present are well adapted to nutrient-poor soils, as is the case in our experiment, and when pest pressure increases with fertilization, as it does in our experiment. The statistical power and especially the duration of fertilization experiments conducted in old growth, tropical forests might be insufficient to detect the slow, modest growth responses that are to be expected.

The response of tree growth to nitrogen and phosphorus additions in a tropical montane rainforest

Rapid increase of global nitrogen (N) deposition has greatly altered carbon cycles and functioning of forest ecosystems. Previous studies have focused on changes in carbon dynamics of temperate and subtropical forests through N enrichment experiments; however, the effects of N deposition on tree growth remain inconsistent, especially in tropical forests. Here, we conducted a five-year N addition experiment (0 and 50kgNha^-1yr^-1) in a tropical montane rain forest in Hainan Island, China, to explore the effects of enhanced N deposition on growth of trees. We also set phosphorus (P) treatment (50kgPha^-1yr^-1) and N+P treatment (50kgNha^-1yr^-1+50kgPha^-1yr^-1) to examine potential P limitation driven by N deposition. Our results showed that N addition has not significantly influenced tree growth, while P addition significantly increased the relative growth rate of small (diameter at breast height, DBH≤10cm) and medium (10<DBH≤20cm) trees. The combined N and P addition accelerated the growth of small trees, but did not affect the growth of medium and large (20cm<DBH) trees. These contrasting effects of N and P addition on tree growth indicate that the tropical montane forest is mainly limited by P, which suggests the importance of P in regulating growth of trees in tropical forests.

Short-term facilitation of microbial litter decomposition by ultraviolet radiation

Solar radiation plays an important role in carbon cycling by increasing the decomposition rates of plant litter and soil organic matter (i.e. photodegradation). Previous work suggests that exposure to radiation can facilitate microbial decomposition of litter by altering litter chemistry and consequently litter degradability (i.e. photopriming). However, it remains unclear to what extent photopriming contributes to litter decomposition processes and on what timescale photopriming operates. We conducted laboratory experiments to compare the effects of UV photopriming at two temporal scales (months versus days). In one experiment, we found that four months of UV exposure induced a significant but small (3-4%) mass loss in two of three litter species commonly found in California oak savanna; however, UV exposure did not alter litter degradability as measured by microbial respiration in an incubation experiment. We also found that UV exposure had limited effects on lignin and other cell wall structures, but one month of microbial decomposition (in absence of UV exposure) significantly reduced lignin β-aryl ether inter-unit linkages and acetylated xylans. These results indicate that abiotic photodegradation alone was ineffective at breaking down lignin. In another experiment, litter of a common grass was exposed to either alternating UV radiation and dark conditions or constant darkness for 128days. We found that the alternating UV exposure increased litter CO₂ production in both dark and UV phases over that observed in constant darkness. This led to a 35% greater release of CO₂ from the alternating UV exposure treatment between days 65 and 128 of the experiment. These results demonstrate that alternating UV exposure with dark conditions is key to enabling photopriming on a timescale of days. Overall, we identify short-term photopriming as a novel mechanism behind photodegradation. Our results also challenge the conventional hypothesis that abiotic processes are primarily responsible for degrading lignin during photodegradation.

Nutrient limitation of terrestrial free-living nitrogen fixation

Nitrogen (N) fixation by free-living bacteria is a primary N input pathway in many ecosystems and sustains global plant productivity. Uncertainty exists over the importance of N, phosphorus (P) and molybdenum (Mo) availability in controlling free-living N fixation rates. Here, we investigate the geographic occurrence and variability of nutrient constraints to free-living N fixation in the terrestrial biosphere. We compiled data from studies measuring free-living N fixation in response to N, P and Mo fertilizers. We used meta-analysis to quantitatively determine the extent to which N, P and Mo stimulate or suppress N fixation, and if environmental variables influence the degree of nutrient limitation of N fixation. Across our compiled dataset, free-living N fixation is suppressed by N fertilization and stimulated by Mo fertilization. Additionally, free-living N fixation is stimulated by P additions in tropical forests. These findings suggest that nutrient limitation is an intrinsic property of the biochemical demands of N fixation, constraining free-living N fixation in the terrestrial biosphere. These findings have implications for understanding the causes and consequences of N limitation in coupled nutrient cycles, as well as modeling and forecasting nutrient controls over carbon-climate feedbacks.

Networking our science to characterize the state, vulnerabilities, and management opportunities of soil organic matter

Soil organic matter (SOM) supports the Earth's ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retains the largest pool of actively cycling carbon. Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of SOM and SOC and their management for sustained production and climate regulation.

High fire-derived nitrogen deposition on central African forests

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is an important determinant of N availability for natural ecosystems worldwide. Increased anthropogenic N deposition shifts the stoichiometric equilibrium of ecosystems, with direct and indirect impacts on ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycles. Current simulation data suggest that remote tropical forests still receive low atmospheric N deposition due to a lack of proximate industry, low rates of fossil fuel combustion, and absence of intensive agriculture. We present field-based N deposition data for forests of the central Congo Basin, and use ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize the organic N fraction. Additionally, we use satellite data and modeling for atmospheric N source apportionment. Our results indicate that these forests receive 18.2 kg N hectare-1 years-1 as wet deposition, with dry deposition via canopy interception adding considerably to this flux. We also show that roughly half of the N deposition is organic, which is often ignored in N deposition measurements and simulations. The source of atmospheric N is predominantly derived from intensive seasonal burning of biomass on the continent. This high N deposition has important implications for the ecology of the Congo Basin and for global biogeochemical cycles more broadly.

Spatiotemporal pattern of gross primary productivity and its covariation with climate in China over the last thirty years

The uncertainties of China's gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates by global data-oriented products and ecosystem models justify a development of high-resolution data-oriented GPP dataset over China. We applied a machine learning algorithm developing a new GPP dataset for China with 0.1° spatial resolution and monthly temporal frequency based on eddy flux measurements from 40 sites in China and surrounding countries, most of which have not been explored in previous global GPP datasets. According to our estimates, mean annual GPP over China is 6.62 ± 0.23 PgC/year during 1982-2015 with a clear gradient from southeast to northwest. The trend of GPP estimated by this study (0.020 ± 0.002 PgC/year² from 1982 to 2015) is almost two times of that estimated by the previous global dataset. The GPP increment is widely spread with 60% area showing significant increasing trend (p < .05), except for Inner Mongolia. Most ecosystem models overestimated the GPP magnitudes but underestimated the temporal trend of GPP. The monsoon affected eastern China, in particular the area surrounding Qinling Mountain, seems having larger contribution to interannual variability (IAV) of China's GPP than the semiarid northwestern China and Tibetan Plateau. At country scale, temperature is the dominant climatic driver for IAV of GPP. The area where IAV of GPP dominated by temperature is about 42%, while precipitation and solar radiation dominate 31% and 27% respectively over semiarid area and cold-wet area. Such spatial pattern was generally consistent with global GPP dataset, except over the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern forests, but not captured by most ecosystem models, highlighting future research needs to improve the modeling of ecosystem response to climate variations.

Global-scale patterns of nutrient density and partitioning in forests in relation to climate

Knowledge of nutrient storage and partitioning in forests is imperative for ecosystem models and ecological theory. Whether the nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, and Mg) stored in forest biomass and their partitioning patterns vary systematically across climatic gradients remains unknown. Here, we explored the global-scale patterns of nutrient density and partitioning using a newly compiled dataset including 372 forest stands. We found that temperature and precipitation were key factors driving the nutrients stored in living biomass of forests at global scale. The N, K, and Mg stored in living biomass tended to be greater in increasingly warm climates. The mean biomass N density was 577.0, 530.4, 513.2, and 336.7 kg/ha for tropical, subtropical, temperate, and boreal forests, respectively. Around 76% of the variation in biomass N density could be accounted by the empirical model combining biomass density, phylogeny (i.e., angiosperm, gymnosperm), and the interaction of mean annual temperature and precipitation. Climate, stand age, and biomass density significantly affected nutrients partitioning at forest community level. The fractional distribution of nutrients to roots decreased significantly with temperature, suggesting that forests in cold climates allocate greater nutrients to roots. Gymnosperm forests tended to allocate more nutrients to leaves as compared with angiosperm forests, whereas the angiosperm forests distributed more nutrients in stems. The nutrient-based Root:Shoot ratios (R:S), averaged 0.30 for R:S_N , 0.36 for R:S_P , 0.32 for R:S_K , 0.27 for R:S_Ca , and 0.35 for R:S_Mg , respectively. The scaling exponents of the relationships describing root nutrients as a function of shoot nutrients were more than 1.0, suggesting that as nutrient allocated to shoot increases, nutrient allocated to roots increases faster than linearly with nutrient in shoot. Soil type significantly affected the total N, P, K, Ca, and Mg stored in living biomass of forests, and the Acrisols group displayed the lowest P, K, Ca, and Mg.

Global forest carbon uptake due to nitrogen and phosphorus deposition from 1850 to 2100

Spatial patterns and temporal trends of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) deposition are important for quantifying their impact on forest carbon (C) uptake. In a first step, we modeled historical and future change in the global distributions of the atmospheric deposition of N and P from the dry and wet deposition of aerosols and gases containing N and P. Future projections were compared between two scenarios with contrasting aerosol emissions. Modeled fields of N and P deposition and P concentration were evaluated using globally distributed in situ measurements. N deposition peaked around 1990 in European forests and around 2010 in East Asian forests, and both increased sevenfold relative to 1850. P deposition peaked around 2010 in South Asian forests and increased 3.5-fold relative to 1850. In a second step, we estimated the change in C storage in forests due to the fertilization by deposited N and P (∆C_{ν dep} ), based on the retention of deposited nutrients, their allocation within plants, and C:N and C:P stoichiometry. ∆C_{ν dep} for 1997-2013 was estimated to be 0.27 ± 0.13 Pg C year^-1 from N and 0.054 ± 0.10 Pg C year^-1 from P, contributing 9% and 2% of the terrestrial C sink, respectively. Sensitivity tests show that uncertainty of ∆C_{ν dep} was larger from P than from N, mainly due to uncertainty in the fraction of deposited P that is fixed by soil. ∆C_Pdep was exceeded by ∆C_Ndep over 1960-2007 in a large area of East Asian and West European forests due to a faster growth in N deposition than P. Our results suggest a significant contribution of anthropogenic P deposition to C storage, and additional sources of N are needed to support C storage by P in some Asian tropical forests where the deposition rate increased even faster for P than for N.

Effects of fire frequency on litter decomposition as mediated by changes to litter chemistry and soil environmental conditions

Litter quality and soil environmental conditions are well-studied drivers influencing decomposition rates, but the role played by disturbance legacy, such as fire history, in mediating these drivers is not well understood. Fire history may impact decomposition directly, through changes in soil conditions that impact microbial function, or indirectly, through shifts in plant community composition and litter chemistry. Here, we compared early-stage decomposition rates across longleaf pine forest blocks managed with varying fire frequencies (annual burns, triennial burns, fire-suppression). Using a reciprocal transplant design, we examined how litter chemistry and soil characteristics independently and jointly influenced litter decomposition. We found that both litter chemistry and soil environmental conditions influenced decomposition rates, but only the former was affected by historical fire frequency. Litter from annually burned sites had higher nitrogen content than litter from triennially burned and fire suppression sites, but this was correlated with only a modest increase in decomposition rates. Soil environmental conditions had a larger impact on decomposition than litter chemistry. Across the landscape, decomposition differed more along soil moisture gradients than across fire management regimes. These findings suggest that fire frequency has a limited effect on litter decomposition in this ecosystem, and encourage extending current decomposition frameworks into disturbed systems. However, litter from different species lost different masses due to fire, suggesting that fire may impact decomposition through the preferential combustion of some litter types. Overall, our findings also emphasize the important role of spatial variability in soil environmental conditions, which may be tied to fire frequency across large spatial scales, in driving decomposition rates in this system.

Different spatial patterns of nitrogen and phosphorus resorption efficiencies in China's forests

Nutrient resorption is an important internal-strategy for plant to retain nutrients. However, the spatial patterns of nitrogen and phosphorus resorption efficiencies (NRE, PRE) in national scales are still unexplored. In this study, we first estimated the magnitudes of NRE and PRE, and explored their spatial patterns across China's forests based on the dataset from a nation-wide field campaign from 2011 to 2015. Mean NRE was estimated to be 35.64% and higher than mean PRE (43.72%). The main effects of forest type and the interactions between climatic zone and land use were significant for both NRE and PRE. In addition, NRE and PRE exhibited different patterns along climatic gradients and nutrient status. Our results can shed light on the nutrient strategies of China's forests under future environmental changes and the results could be used in global biogeochemical models.

Soil parent material-A major driver of plant nutrient limitations in terrestrial ecosystems

Because the capability of terrestrial ecosystems to fix carbon is constrained by nutrient availability, understanding how nutrients limit plant growth is a key contemporary question. However, what drives nutrient limitations at global scale remains to be clarified. Using global data on plant growth, plant nutritive status, and soil fertility, we investigated to which extent soil parent materials explain nutrient limitations. We found that N limitation was not linked to soil parent materials, but was best explained by climate: ecosystems under harsh (i.e., cold and or dry) climates were more N-limited than ecosystems under more favourable climates. Contrary to N limitation, P limitation was not driven by climate, but by soil parent materials. The influence of soil parent materials was the result of the tight link between actual P pools of soils and physical-chemical properties (acidity, P richness) of soil parent materials. Some other ground-related factors (i.e., soil weathering stage, landform) had a noticeable influence on P limitation, but their role appeared to be relatively smaller than that of geology. The relative importance of N limitation versus P limitation was explained by a combination of climate and soil parent material: at global scale, N limitation became prominent with increasing climatic constraints, but this global trend was modulated at lower scales by the effect of parent materials on P limitation, particularly under climates favourable to biological activity. As compared with soil parent materials, atmospheric deposition had only a weak influence on the global distribution of actual nutrient limitation. Our work advances our understanding of the distribution of nutrient limitation at global scale. In particular, it stresses the need to take soil parent materials into account when investigating plant growth response to environment changes.

Centennial-scale reductions in nitrogen availability in temperate forests of the United States

Forests cover 30% of the terrestrial Earth surface and are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Humans have doubled the amount of global reactive nitrogen (N), increasing deposition of N onto forests worldwide. However, other global changes-especially climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations-are increasing demand for N, the element limiting primary productivity in temperate forests, which could be reducing N availability. To determine the long-term, integrated effects of global changes on forest N cycling, we measured stable N isotopes in wood, a proxy for N supply relative to demand, on large spatial and temporal scales across the continental U.S.A. Here, we show that forest N availability has generally declined across much of the U.S. since at least 1850 C.E. with cool, wet forests demonstrating the greatest declines. Across sites, recent trajectories of N availability were independent of recent atmospheric N deposition rates, implying a minor role for modern N deposition on the trajectory of N status of North American forests. Our results demonstrate that current trends of global changes are likely to be consistent with forest oligotrophication into the foreseeable future, further constraining forest C fixation and potentially storage.

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw-induced collapse-scar bog ('wetland') expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape-scale net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE_LAND ), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE_LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature- and light-limited NEE_LAND of a boreal forest-wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE_LAND (-20 g C m^-2 ) and wetland NEE (-24 g C m^-2 ) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE_LAND . In contrast, we find non-negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE_LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light-limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year-round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO₂ uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO₂ uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m^-2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m^-2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO₂ uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO₂ uptake of boreal forest-wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO₂ sources under continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. We conclude that NEE_LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative land uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.

Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between -31 and 193 Tg P and between -89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648-1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924-2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.