The Polygenic Score Catalog as an open database for reproducibility and systematic evaluation

Associations of genetic and infectious risk factors with coronary heart disease

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the most pressing health problems of our time and a major cause of preventable death. CHD results from complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. Using multiplex serological testing for persistent or frequently recurring infections and genome-wide analysis in a prospective population study, we delineate the respective and combined influences of genetic variation, infections, and low-grade inflammation on the risk of incident CHD. Study participants are enrolled in the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus study, a longitudinal, population-based cohort with baseline assessments from 2003 through 2008 and follow-up visits every 5 years. We analyzed a subgroup of 3459 individuals with available genome-wide genotyping data and immunoglobulin G levels for 22 persistent or frequently recurring pathogens. All reported CHD events were evaluated by a panel of specialists. We identified independent associations with incident CHD using univariable and multivariable stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Of the 3459 study participants, 210 (6.07%) had at least one CHD event during the 12 years of follow-up. Multivariable stepwise Cox regression analysis, adjusted for known cardiovascular risk factors, socioeconomic status, and statin intake, revealed that high polygenic risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.10-1.56, p=2.64 × 10^-3) and infection with Fusobacterium nucleatum (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.08-2.45, p=1.99 × 10^-2) were independently associated with incident CHD. In a prospective, population-based cohort, high polygenic risk and infection with F. nucleatum have a small, yet independent impact on CHD risk.

Accurate genome-wide genotyping from archival tissue to explore the contribution of common genetic variants to pre-cancer outcomes

PURPOSE

The contribution of common genetic variants to pre-cancer progression is understudied due to long follow-up time, rarity of poor outcomes and lack of available germline DNA collection. Alternatively, DNA from diagnostic archival tissue is available, but its somatic nature, limited quantity and suboptimal quality would require an accurate cost-effective genome-wide germline genotyping methodology.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Blood and tissue DNA from 10 individuals were used to benchmark the accuracy of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP) genotypes, Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) or HLA haplotypes using low-coverage whole-genome sequencing (lc-WGS) and genotype imputation. Tissue-derived PRS were further evaluated for 36 breast cancer patients (11.7 years median follow-up time) diagnosed with DCIS and used to model the risk of Breast Cancer Subsequent Events (BCSE).

RESULTS

Tissue-derived germline DNA profiling resulted in accurate genotypes at common SNPs (blood correlation r2 > 0.94) and across 22 disease-related polygenic risk scores (PRS, mean correlation r = 0.93). Imputed Class I and II HLA haplotypes were 96.7% and 82.5% concordant with clinical-grade blood HLA haplotypes, respectively. In DCIS patients, tissue-derived PRS was significantly associated with BCSE (HR = 2, 95% CI 1.2-3.8). The top and bottom decile patients had an estimated 28% and 5% chance of BCSE at 10 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Archival tissue DNA germline profiling using lc-WGS and imputation, represents a cost and resource-effective alternative in the retrospective design of long-term disease genetic studies. Initial results in breast cancer suggest that common risk variants contribute to pre-cancer progression.

Addressing the challenges of polygenic scores in human genetic research

The genotyping of millions of human samples has made it possible to evaluate variants across the human genome for their possible association with risks for numerous diseases and other traits by using genome-wide association studies (GWASs). The associations between phenotype and genotype found in GWASs make possible the construction of polygenic scores (PGSs), which aim to predict a trait or disease outcome in an individual on the basis of their genotype (in the disease case, the term polygenic risk score [PRS] is often used). PGSs have shown promise for studying the biology of complex traits and as a tool for evaluating individual disease risks in clinical settings. Although the quantity and quality of data to compute PGSs are increasing, challenges remain in the technical aspects of developing PGSs and in the ethical and social issues that might arise from their use. This ASHG Guidance emphasizes three major themes for researchers working with or interested in the application of PGSs in their own research: (1) developing diverse research cohorts; (2) fostering robustness in the development, application, and interpretation of PGSs; and (3) improving the communication of PGS results and their implications to broad audiences.

Genetically personalised organ-specific metabolic models in health and disease

Understanding how genetic variants influence disease risk and complex traits (variant-to-function) is one of the major challenges in human genetics. Here we present a model-driven framework to leverage human genome-scale metabolic networks to define how genetic variants affect biochemical reaction fluxes across major human tissues, including skeletal muscle, adipose, liver, brain and heart. As proof of concept, we build personalised organ-specific metabolic flux models for 524,615 individuals of the INTERVAL and UK Biobank cohorts and perform a fluxome-wide association study (FWAS) to identify 4312 associations between personalised flux values and the concentration of metabolites in blood. Furthermore, we apply FWAS to identify 92 metabolic fluxes associated with the risk of developing coronary artery disease, many of which are linked to processes previously described to play in role in the disease. Our work demonstrates that genetically personalised metabolic models can elucidate the downstream effects of genetic variants on biochemical reactions involved in common human diseases.

The NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog: knowledgebase and deposition resource

The NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog (www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas) is a FAIR knowledgebase providing detailed, structured, standardised and interoperable genome-wide association study (GWAS) data to >200 000 users per year from academic research, healthcare and industry. The Catalog contains variant-trait associations and supporting metadata for >45 000 published GWAS across >5000 human traits, and >40 000 full P-value summary statistics datasets. Content is curated from publications or acquired via author submission of prepublication summary statistics through a new submission portal and validation tool. GWAS data volume has vastly increased in recent years. We have updated our software to meet this scaling challenge and to enable rapid release of submitted summary statistics. The scope of the repository has expanded to include additional data types of high interest to the community, including sequencing-based GWAS, gene-based analyses and copy number variation analyses. Community outreach has increased the number of shared datasets from under-represented traits, e.g. cancer, and we continue to contribute to awareness of the lack of population diversity in GWAS. Interoperability of the Catalog has been enhanced through links to other resources including the Polygenic Score Catalog and the International Mouse Phenotyping Consortium, refinements to GWAS trait annotation, and the development of a standard format for GWAS data.

Self-reported walking pace, polygenic risk scores and risk of coronary artery disease in UK biobank

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Both polygenic risk scores (PGS) and self-reported walking pace have been shown to predict cardiovascular disease; whether combining both factors produces greater risk differentiation is, however, unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We estimated the 10-year absolute risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), adjusted for traditional risk factors, and the C-index across nine PGS and self-reported walking pace in UK Biobank study participants between Mar/2006-Feb/2021. In 380,693 individuals (54.8% women), over a median (5th, 95th percentile) of 11.9 (8.3, 13.4) years, 2,603 (1.2%) CAD events occurred in women and 8,259 (4.8%) in men. Both walking pace and genetic risk were strongly associated with CAD. The absolute 10-year risk of CAD was highest in slow walkers at high genetic risk (top 20% of PGS): 2.72% (95% CI: 2.30-3.13) in women; 9.60% (8.62-10.57) in men. The risk difference between slow and brisk walkers was greater at higher [1.26% (0.81-1.71) in women; 3.63% (2.58-4.67) in men] than lower [0.76% (0.59-0.93) and 2.37% (1.96-2.78), respectively] genetic risk. Brisk walkers at high genetic risk had equivalent (women) or higher (men) risk than slow walkers at moderate-to-low genetic risk (bottom 80% of PGS). When added to a model containing traditional risk factors, both factors separately improved risk discrimination; combining them resulted in the greatest discrimination: C-index of 0.801 (0.793-0.808) in women; 0.732 (0.728-0.737) in men.

CONCLUSION

Self-reported slow walkers at high genetic risk had the greatest risk of CAD, identifying a potentially important population for intervention. Both PGS and walking pace contributed to risk discrimination.

Clinical genomics and precision medicine

Precision Medicine emerges from the genomic paradigm of health and disease. For precise molecular diagnoses of genetic diseases, we must analyze the Whole Exome (WES) or the Whole Genome (WGS). By not needing exon capture, WGS is more powerful to detect single nucleotide variants and copy number variants. In healthy individuals, we can observe monogenic highly penetrant variants, which may be causally responsible for diseases, and also susceptibility variants, associated with common polygenic diseases. But there is the major problem of penetrance. Thus, there is the question of whether it is worthwhile to perform WGS in all healthy individuals as a step towards Precision Medicine. The genetic architecture of disease is consistent with the fact that they are all polygenic. Moreover, ancestry adds another layer of complexity. We are now capable of obtaining Polygenic Risk Scores for all complex diseases using only data from new generation sequencing. Yet, review of available evidence does not at present favor the idea that WGS analyses are sufficiently developed to allow reliable predictions of the risk components for monogenic and polygenic hereditary diseases in healthy individuals. Probably, it is still better for WGS to remain reserved for the diagnosis of pathogenic variants of Mendelian diseases.

ExPRSweb: An online repository with polygenic risk scores for common health-related exposures

Complex traits are influenced by genetic risk factors, lifestyle, and environmental variables, so-called exposures. Some exposures, e.g., smoking or lipid levels, have common genetic modifiers identified in genome-wide association studies. Because measurements are often unfeasible, exposure polygenic risk scores (ExPRSs) offer an alternative to study the influence of exposures on various phenotypes. Here, we collected publicly available summary statistics for 28 exposures and applied four common PRS methods to generate ExPRSs in two large biobanks: the Michigan Genomics Initiative and the UK Biobank. We established ExPRSs for 27 exposures and demonstrated their applicability in phenome-wide association studies and as predictors for common chronic conditions. Especially the addition of multiple ExPRSs showed, for several chronic conditions, an improvement compared to prediction models that only included traditional, disease-focused PRSs. To facilitate follow-up studies, we share all ExPRS constructs and generated results via an online repository called ExPRSweb.

Implementation of individualised polygenic risk score analysis: a test case of a family of four

Background

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been widely applied in research studies, showing how population groups can be stratified into risk categories for many common conditions. As healthcare systems consider applying PRS to keep their populations healthy, little work has been carried out demonstrating their implementation at an individual level.

Case presentation

We performed a systematic curation of PRS sources from established data repositories, selecting 15 phenotypes, comprising an excess of 37 million SNPs related to cancer, cardiovascular, metabolic and autoimmune diseases. We tested selected phenotypes using whole genome sequencing data for a family of four related individuals. Individual risk scores were given percentile values based upon reference distributions among 1000 Genomes Iberians, Europeans, or all samples. Over 96 billion allele effects were calculated in order to obtain the PRS for each of the individuals analysed here.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the need for further standardisation in the way PRS are developed and shared, the importance of individual risk assessment rather than the assumption of inherited averages, and the challenges currently posed when translating PRS into risk metrics.

Research Review: A guide to computing and implementing polygenic scores in developmental research

The increasing availability of genotype data in longitudinal population- and family-based samples provides opportunities for using polygenic scores (PGS) to study developmental questions in child and adolescent psychology and psychiatry. Here, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of how PGS can be generated and implemented in developmental psycho(patho)logy, with a focus on longitudinal designs. As such, the paper is organized into three parts: First, we provide a formal definition of polygenic scores and related concepts, focusing on assumptions and limitations. Second, we give a general overview of the methods used to compute polygenic scores, ranging from the classic approach to more advanced methods. We include recommendations and reference resources available to researchers aiming to conduct PGS analyses. Finally, we focus on the practical applications of PGS in the analysis of longitudinal data. We describe how PGS have been used to research developmental outcomes, and how they can be applied to longitudinal data to address developmental questions.

Concerns about the use of polygenic embryo screening for psychiatric and cognitive traits

Private companies have begun offering services to allow parents undergoing in-vitro fertilisation to screen embryos for genetic risk of complex diseases, including psychiatric disorders. This procedure, called polygenic embryo screening, raises several difficult scientific and ethical issues, as discussed in this Personal View. Polygenic embryo screening depends on the statistical properties of polygenic risk scores, which are complex and not well studied in the context of this proposed clinical application. The clinical, social, and ethical implications of polygenic embryo screening have barely been discussed among relevant stakeholders. To our knowledge, the International Society of Psychiatric Genetics is the first professional biomedical organisation to issue a statement regarding polygenic embryo screening. For the reasons discussed in this Personal View, the Society urges caution and calls for additional research and oversight on the use of polygenic embryo screening.

How dysregulation of the immune system promotes diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk complications

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic metabolic disorder characterized by persistent hyperglycemia due to insulin resistance or failure to produce insulin. Patients with DM develop microvascular complications that include chronic kidney disease and retinopathy, and macrovascular complications that mainly consist in an accelerated and more severe atherosclerosis compared to the general population, increasing the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events, such as stroke or myocardial infarction by 2- to 4-fold. DM is commonly associated with a low-grade chronic inflammation that is a known causal factor in its development and its complications. Moreover, it is now well-established that inflammation and immune cells play a major role in both atherosclerosis genesis and progression, as well as in CV event occurrence. In this review, after a brief presentation of DM physiopathology and its macrovascular complications, we will describe the immune system dysregulation present in patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes and discuss its role in DM cardiovascular complications development. More specifically, we will review the metabolic changes and aberrant activation that occur in the immune cells driving the chronic inflammation through cytokine and chemokine secretion, thus promoting atherosclerosis onset and progression in a DM context. Finally, we will discuss how genetics and recent systemic approaches bring new insights into the mechanisms behind these inflammatory dysregulations and pave the way toward precision medicine.

Validating and automating learning of cardiometabolic polygenic risk scores from direct-to-consumer genetic and phenotypic data: implications for scaling precision health research

Introduction

A major challenge to enabling precision health at a global scale is the bias between those who enroll in state sponsored genomic research and those suffering from chronic disease. More than 30 million people have been genotyped by direct-to-consumer (DTC) companies such as 23andMe, Ancestry DNA, and MyHeritage, providing a potential mechanism for democratizing access to medical interventions and thus catalyzing improvements in patient outcomes as the cost of data acquisition drops. However, much of these data are sequestered in the initial provider network, without the ability for the scientific community to either access or validate. Here, we present a novel geno-pheno platform that integrates heterogeneous data sources and applies learnings to common chronic disease conditions including Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension.

Methods

We collected genotyped data from a novel DTC platform where participants upload their genotype data files and were invited to answer general health questionnaires regarding cardiometabolic traits over a period of 6 months. Quality control, imputation, and genome-wide association studies were performed on this dataset, and polygenic risk scores were built in a case–control setting using the BASIL algorithm.

Results

We collected data on N = 4,550 (389 cases / 4,161 controls) who reported being affected or previously affected for T2D and N = 4,528 (1,027 cases / 3,501 controls) for hypertension. We identified 164 out of 272 variants showing identical effect direction to previously reported genome-significant findings in Europeans. Performance metric of the PRS models was AUC = 0.68, which is comparable to previously published PRS models obtained with larger datasets including clinical biomarkers.

Discussion

DTC platforms have the potential of inverting research models of genome sequencing and phenotypic data acquisition. Quality control (QC) mechanisms proved to successfully enable traditional GWAS and PRS analyses. The direct participation of individuals has shown the potential to generate rich datasets enabling the creation of PRS cardiometabolic models. More importantly, federated learning of PRS from reuse of DTC data provides a mechanism for scaling precision health care delivery beyond the small number of countries who can afford to finance these efforts directly.

Conclusions

The genetics of T2D and hypertension have been studied extensively in controlled datasets, and various polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been developed. We developed predictive tools for both phenotypes trained with heterogeneous genotypic and phenotypic data generated outside of the clinical environment and show that our methods can recapitulate prior findings with fidelity. From these observations, we conclude that it is possible to leverage DTC genetic repositories to identify individuals at risk of debilitating diseases based on their unique genetic landscape so that informed, timely clinical interventions can be incorporated.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40246-022-00406-y.

The Polygenic Risk Score Knowledge Base offers a centralized online repository for calculating and contextualizing polygenic risk scores

The process of identifying suitable genome-wide association (GWA) studies and formatting the data to calculate multiple polygenic risk scores on a single genome can be laborious. Here, we present a centralized polygenic risk score calculator currently containing over 250,000 genetic variant associations from the NHGRI-EBI GWAS Catalog for users to easily calculate sample-specific polygenic risk scores with comparable results to other available tools. Polygenic risk scores are calculated either online through the Polygenic Risk Score Knowledge Base (PRSKB; https://prs.byu.edu ) or via a command-line interface. We report study-specific polygenic risk scores across the UK Biobank, 1000 Genomes, and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), contextualize computed scores, and identify potentially confounding genetic risk factors in ADNI. We introduce a streamlined analysis tool and web interface to calculate and contextualize polygenic risk scores across various studies, which we anticipate will facilitate a wider adaptation of polygenic risk scores in future disease research.

Use of Polygenic Risk Scores for Coronary Heart Disease in Ancestrally Diverse Populations

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

A polygenic risk score (PRS) is a measure of genetic liability to a disease and is typically normally distributed in a population. Individuals in the upper tail of this distribution often have relative risk equivalent to that of monogenic form of the disease. The majority of currently available PRSs for coronary heart disease (CHD) have been generated from cohorts of European ancestry (EUR) and vary in their applicability to other ancestry groups. In this report, we review the performance of PRSs for CHD across different ancestries and efforts to reduce variability in performance including novel population and statistical genetics approaches.

RECENT FINDINGS

PRSs for CHD perform robustly in EUR populations but lag in performance in non-EUR groups, particularly individuals of African ancestry. Several large consortia have been established to enable genomic studies in diverse ancestry groups and develop methods to improve PRS performance in multi-ancestry contexts as well as admixed individuals. These include fine-mapping to ascertain causal variants, trans ancestry meta-analyses, and ancestry deconvolution in admixed individuals. PRSs are being used in the clinical setting but enthusiasm has been tempered by the variable performance in non-EUR ancestry groups. Increasing diversity in genomic association studies and continued innovation in methodological approaches are needed to improve PRS performance in non-EUR individuals for equitable implementation of genomic medicine.

Polygenic scores in biomedical research

Public health strategies aimed at disease prevention or early detection and intervention have the potential to advance human health worldwide. However, their success depends on the identification of risk factors that underlie disease burden in the general population. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have implicated thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in common complex diseases or traits. By calculating a weighted sum of the number of trait-associated alleles harboured by an individual, a polygenic score (PGS), also called a polygenic risk score (PRS), can be constructed that reflects an individual’s estimated genetic predisposition for a given phenotype. Here, we ask six experts to give their opinions on the utility of these probabilistic tools, their strengths and limitations, and the remaining barriers that need to be overcome for their equitable use.

Schizophrenia Imaging Signatures and Their Associations With Cognition, Psychopathology, and Genetics in the General Population

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence and significance of schizophrenia-related phenotypes at the population level is debated in the literature. Here, the authors assessed whether two recently reported neuroanatomical signatures of schizophrenia-signature 1, with widespread reduction of gray matter volume, and signature 2, with increased striatal volume-could be replicated in an independent schizophrenia sample, and investigated whether expression of these signatures can be detected at the population level and how they relate to cognition, psychosis spectrum symptoms, and schizophrenia genetic risk.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used an independent schizophrenia-control sample (N=347; ages 16-57 years) for replication of imaging signatures, and then examined two independent population-level data sets: typically developing youths and youths with psychosis spectrum symptoms in the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (N=359; ages 16-23 years) and adults in the UK Biobank study (N=836; ages 44-50 years). The authors quantified signature expression using support-vector machine learning and compared cognition, psychopathology, and polygenic risk between signatures.

RESULTS

Two neuroanatomical signatures of schizophrenia were replicated. Signature 1 but not signature 2 was significantly more common in youths with psychosis spectrum symptoms than in typically developing youths, whereas signature 2 frequency was similar in the two groups. In both youths and adults, signature 1 was associated with worse cognitive performance than signature 2. Compared with adults with neither signature, adults expressing signature 1 had elevated schizophrenia polygenic risk scores, but this was not seen for signature 2.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors successfully replicated two neuroanatomical signatures of schizophrenia and describe their prevalence in population-based samples of youths and adults. They further demonstrated distinct relationships of these signatures with psychosis symptoms, cognition, and genetic risk, potentially reflecting underlying neurobiological vulnerability.

Performance of the Use of Genetic Information to Assess the Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the Basque Population

Although the genetic contribution to colorectal cancer (CRC) has been studied in various populations, studies on the applicability of available genetic information in the Basque population are scarce. In total, 835 CRC cases and 940 controls from the Basque population were genotyped and genome-wide association studies were carried out. Mendelian Randomization analyses were used to discover the effect of modifiable risk factors and microbiota on CRC. In total, 25 polygenic risk score models were evaluated to assess their performance in CRC risk calculation. Moreover, 492 inflammatory bowel disease cases were used to assess whether that genetic information would not confuse both conditions. Five suggestive (p < 5 × 10−6) loci were associated with CRC risk, where genes previously associated with CRC were located (e.g., ABCA12, ATIC or ERBB4). Moreover, the analyses of CRC locations detected additional genes consistent with the biology of CRC. The possible contribution of cholesterol, BMI, Firmicutes and Cyanobacteria to CRC risk was detected by Mendelian Randomization. Finally, although polygenic risk score models showed variable performance, the best model performed correctly regardless of the location and did not misclassify inflammatory bowel disease cases. Our results are consistent with CRC biology and genetic risk models and could be applied to assess CRC risk in the Basque population.

Methylation risk scores are associated with a collection of phenotypes within electronic health record systems

Inference of clinical phenotypes is a fundamental task in precision medicine, and has therefore been heavily investigated in recent years in the context of electronic health records (EHR) using a large arsenal of machine learning techniques, as well as in the context of genetics using polygenic risk scores (PRS). In this work, we considered the epigenetic analog of PRS, methylation risk scores (MRS), a linear combination of methylation states. We measured methylation across a large cohort (n = 831) of diverse samples in the UCLA Health biobank, for which both genetic and complete EHR data are available. We constructed MRS for 607 phenotypes spanning diagnoses, clinical lab tests, and medication prescriptions. When added to a baseline set of predictive features, MRS significantly improved the imputation of 139 outcomes, whereas the PRS improved only 22 (median improvement for methylation 10.74%, 141.52%, and 15.46% in medications, labs, and diagnosis codes, respectively, whereas genotypes only improved the labs at a median increase of 18.42%). We added significant MRS to state-of-the-art EHR imputation methods that leverage the entire set of medical records, and found that including MRS as a medical feature in the algorithm significantly improves EHR imputation in 37% of lab tests examined (median R² increase 47.6%). Finally, we replicated several MRS in multiple external studies of methylation (minimum p-value of 2.72 × 10⁻⁷) and replicated 22 of 30 tested MRS internally in two separate cohorts of different ethnicity. Our publicly available results and weights show promise for methylation risk scores as clinical and scientific tools.

Challenges and Opportunities for Developing More Generalizable Polygenic Risk Scores

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate an individual's genetic likelihood of complex traits and diseases by aggregating information across multiple genetic variants identified from genome-wide association studies. PRS can predict a broad spectrum of diseases and have therefore been widely used in research settings. Some work has investigated their potential applications as biomarkers in preventative medicine, but significant work is still needed to definitively establish and communicate absolute risk to patients for genetic and modifiable risk factors across demographic groups. However, the biggest limitation of PRS currently is that they show poor generalizability across diverse ancestries and cohorts. Major efforts are underway through methodological development and data generation initiatives to improve their generalizability. This review aims to comprehensively discuss current progress on the development of PRS, the factors that affect their generalizability, and promising areas for improving their accuracy, portability, and implementation.

Transferability of genetic loci and polygenic scores for cardiometabolic traits in British Pakistani and Bangladeshi individuals

Individuals with South Asian ancestry have a higher risk of heart disease than other groups but have been largely excluded from genetic research. Using data from 22,000 British Pakistani and Bangladeshi individuals with linked electronic health records from the Genes & Health cohort, we conducted genome-wide association studies of coronary artery disease and its key risk factors. Using power-adjusted transferability ratios, we found evidence for transferability for the majority of cardiometabolic loci powered to replicate. The performance of polygenic scores was high for lipids and blood pressure, but lower for BMI and coronary artery disease. Adding a polygenic score for coronary artery disease to clinical risk factors showed significant improvement in reclassification. In Mendelian randomisation using transferable loci as instruments, our findings were consistent with results in European-ancestry individuals. Taken together, trait-specific transferability of trait loci between populations is an important consideration with implications for risk prediction and causal inference.

Role of Polygenic Risk Score in Cancer Precision Medicine of Non-European Populations: A Systematic Review

The development of new screening methods and diagnostic tests for traits, common diseases, and cancer is linked to the advent of precision genomic medicine, in which health care is individually adjusted based on a person’s lifestyle, environmental influences, and genetic variants. Based on genome-wide association study (GWAS) analysis, rapid and continuing progress in the discovery of relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for traits or complex diseases has increased interest in the potential application of genetic risk models for routine health practice. The polygenic risk score (PRS) estimates an individual’s genetic risk of a trait or disease, calculated by employing a weighted sum of allele counts combined with non-genetic variables. However, 98.38% of PRS records held in public databases relate to the European population. Therefore, PRSs for multiethnic populations are urgently needed. We performed a systematic review to discuss the role of polygenic risk scores in advancing precision medicine for different cancer types in multiethnic non-European populations.

Multi-Trait Genetic Analysis Reveals Clinically Interpretable Hypertension Subtypes

Background:

Hypertension comprises a heterogeneous range of phenotypes. We asked whether underlying genetic structure could explain a part of this heterogeneity.

Methods:

Our study sample comprised N=198 148 FinnGen participants (56% women, mean age 58 years) and N=21 168 well-phenotyped FINRISK participants (53% women, mean age 50 years). First, we identified genetic hypertension components with an unsupervised Bayesian non-negative matrix factorization algorithm using public genome-wide association data for 144 genetic hypertension variants and 16 clinical traits. For these components, we computed their (1) cross-sectional associations with clinical traits in FINRISK using linear regression and (2) longitudinal associations with incident adverse outcomes in FinnGen using Cox regression.

Results:

We observed 4 genetic hypertension components corresponding to recognizable clinical phenotypes: obesity (high body mass index), dyslipidemia (low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high triglycerides), hypolipidemia (low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and low total cholesterol), and short stature. In FINRISK, all hypertension components had robust associations with their respective clinical characteristics. In FinnGen, the Obesity component was associated with increased diabetes risk (hazard ratio per 1 SD increase 1.08 [Bonferroni corrected CI, 1.05–1.10]) and the Hypolipidemia component with increased autoimmune disease risk (hazard ratio per 1 SD increase 1.05 [Bonferroni corrected CI, 1.03–1.07]). In addition, all hypertension components were related to both hypertension and cardiovascular disease.

Conclusions:

Our unsupervised analysis demonstrates that the genetic basis of hypertension can be understood as a mixture of 4 broad, clinically interpretable components capturing disease heterogeneity. These components could be used to stratify individuals into specific genetic subtypes and, therefore, to benefit personalized health care and pharmaceutical research.

A Large-Scale Genome-Wide Gene-Gene Interaction Study of Lung Cancer Susceptibility in Europeans With a Trans-Ethnic Validation in Asians

INTRODUCTION

Although genome-wide association studies have been conducted to investigate genetic variation of lung tumorigenesis, little is known about gene-gene (G × G) interactions that may influence the risk of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

Leveraging a total of 445,221 European-descent participants from the International Lung Cancer Consortium OncoArray project, Transdisciplinary Research in Cancer of the Lung and UK Biobank, we performed a large-scale genome-wide G × G interaction study on European NSCLC risk by a series of analyses. First, we used BiForce to evaluate and rank more than 58 billion G × G interactions from 340,958 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Then, the top interactions were further tested by demographically adjusted logistic regression models. Finally, we used the selected interactions to build lung cancer screening models of NSCLC, separately, for never and ever smokers.

RESULTS

With the Bonferroni correction, we identified eight statistically significant pairs of SNPs, which predominantly appeared in the 6p21.32 and 5p15.33 regions (e.g., rs521828C6orf10 and rs204999PRRT1, ORinteraction = 1.17, p = 6.57 × 10-13; rs3135369BTNL2 and rs2858859HLA-DQA1, ORinteraction = 1.17, p = 2.43 × 10-13; rs2858859HLA-DQA1 and rs9275572HLA-DQA2, ORinteraction = 1.15, p = 2.84 × 10-13; rs2853668TERT and rs62329694CLPTM1L, ORinteraction = 0.73, p = 2.70 × 10-13). Notably, even with much genetic heterogeneity across ethnicities, three pairs of SNPs in the 6p21.32 region identified from the European-ancestry population remained significant among an Asian population from the Nanjing Medical University Global Screening Array project (rs521828C6orf10 and rs204999PRRT1, ORinteraction = 1.13, p = 0.008; rs3135369BTNL2 and rs2858859HLA-DQA1, ORinteraction = 1.11, p = 5.23 × 10-4; rs3135369BTNL2 and rs9271300HLA-DQA1, ORinteraction = 0.89, p = 0.006). The interaction-empowered polygenetic risk score that integrated classical polygenetic risk score and G × G information score was remarkable in lung cancer risk stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

Important G × G interactions were identified and enriched in the 5p15.33 and 6p21.32 regions, which may enhance lung cancer screening models.

New Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Techniques for Primary Prevention: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Risk factor-based models fail to accurately estimate risk in select populations, in particular younger individuals. A sizable number of people are also classified as being at intermediate risk, for whom the optimal preventive strategy could be more precise. Several personalized risk prediction tools, including coronary artery calcium scoring, polygenic risk scores, and metabolic risk scores may be able to improve risk assessment, pending supportive outcome data from clinical trials. Other tools may well emerge in the near future. A multidimensional approach to risk prediction holds the promise of precise risk prediction. This could allow for targeted prevention minimizing unnecessary costs and risks while maximizing benefits. High-risk individuals could also be identified early in life, creating opportunities to arrest the development of nascent coronary atherosclerosis and prevent future clinical events.

Applications of Machine Learning Models to Predict and Prevent Obesity: A Mini-Review

Research on obesity and related diseases has received attention from government policymakers; interventions targeting nutrient intake, dietary patterns, and physical activity are deployed globally. An urgent issue now is how can we improve the efficiency of obesity research or obesity interventions. Currently, machine learning (ML) methods have been widely applied in obesity-related studies to detect obesity disease biomarkers or discover intervention strategies to optimize weight loss results. In addition, an open source of these algorithms is necessary to check the reproducibility of the research results. Furthermore, appropriate applications of these algorithms could greatly improve the efficiency of similar studies by other researchers. Here, we proposed a mini-review of several open-source ML algorithms, platforms, or related databases that are of particular interest or can be applied in the field of obesity research. We focus our topic on nutrition, environment and social factor, genetics or genomics, and microbiome-adopting ML algorithms.

Aspirin and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer According to Genetic Susceptibility among Older Individuals

Although aspirin has been considered a promising agent for prevention of colorectal cancer, recent data suggest a lack of benefit among older individuals. Whether some individuals with higher risk of colorectal cancer may benefit from aspirin remains unknown. We used a 95-variant colorectal cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) to explore the association between genetic susceptibility to colorectal cancer and aspirin use in a prospective study of 12,609 individuals of European descent ages ≥70 years, enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) double-blinded, placebo-controlled randomized trial (randomized controlled trial; RCT). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of aspirin use on colorectal cancer, as well as the interaction between the PRS and aspirin treatment on colorectal cancer. Over a median of 4.7 years follow-up, 143 participants were diagnosed with incident colorectal cancer. Aspirin assignment was not associated with incidence of colorectal cancer overall [HR = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.68-1.30] or within strata of PRS (P for interaction = 0.97). However, the PRS was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR = 1.28 per SD; 95% CI, 1.09-1.51). Individuals in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had an 85% higher risk compared with individuals in the bottom quintile (HR = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.08-3.15). In a prospective RCT of older individuals, a PRS is associated with incident colorectal cancer risk, but aspirin use was not associated with a reduction of incident colorectal cancer, regardless of baseline genetic risk.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

There is strong evidence to support prophylactic aspirin use for the prevention of colorectal cancer. However recent recommendations suggest the risk of bleeding in older individuals outweighs the benefit. We sought to determine whether some older individuals might still benefit from aspirin based on their genetic susceptibility.

Polygenic risk score as a possible tool for identifying familial monogenic causes of complex diseases

PURPOSE

The study aimed to evaluate whether polygenic risk scores could be helpful in addition to family history for triaging individuals to undergo deep-depth diagnostic sequencing for identifying monogenic causes of complex diseases.

METHODS

Among 44,550 exome-sequenced European ancestry UK Biobank participants, we identified individuals with a clinically reported or computationally predicted monogenic pathogenic variant for breast cancer, bowel cancer, heart disease, diabetes, or Alzheimer disease. We derived polygenic risk scores for these diseases. We tested whether a polygenic risk score could identify rare pathogenic variant heterozygotes among individuals with a parental disease history.

RESULTS

Monogenic causes of complex diseases were more prevalent among individuals with a parental disease history than in the rest of the population. Polygenic risk scores showed moderate discriminative power to identify familial monogenic causes. For instance, we showed that prescreening the patients with a polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes can prioritize individuals to undergo diagnostic sequencing for monogenic diabetes variants and reduce needs for such sequencing by up to 37%.

CONCLUSION

Among individuals with a family history of complex diseases, those with a low polygenic risk score are more likely to have monogenic causes of the disease and could be prioritized to undergo genetic testing.

Exome-wide screening identifies novel rare risk variants for major depression disorder

Despite thousands of common genetic loci of major depression disorders (MDD) have been identified by GWAS to date, a large proportion of genetic variation predisposing to MDD remains unaccounted for. By utilizing the newly released UK Biobank 200,643 exome dataset, we conducted an exome-wide association study to identify rare risk variants contributing to MDD. After quality control, 120,033 participants with MDD polygenic risk scores (PRS) values were included. The individuals with lower 30% quantile of the PRS value were filtered for case and control selecting. Then the cases were set as the individuals with upper 10% quantile of the PHQ depression score and lower 10% quantile were set as controls. Finally, 1612 cases and 1612 controls were included in this study. The variants were annotated by ANNOVRA software. After exclusions, 34,761 qualifying variants, including 148 frameshift variant, 335 non-frameshift variant, 33,758 nonsynonymous, 91 start-loss, 393 stop-gain, 36 stop-loss variants were imported into the SKAT R-package to perform single variants, gene-based burden and robust burden tests with minor allele frequency (MAF) < 0.01. Single variant association testing identified one variant, rs4057749 (P = 5.39 × 10^-9), within OR8B4 gene at an exome-wide significance level. The gene-based burden test of the exonic variants identified genome-wide significant associations in OR8B4 (P_SKAT = 6.23 × 10^-5, P_{SKAT Robust} = 4.49 × 10^-5), TRAPPC11 (P_SKAT = 0.014, P_{SKAT Robust} = 0.015), SBK3 (P_SKAT = 0.020, P_{SKAT Robust} = 0.025) and TNRC6B (P_SKAT = 0.026, P_{SKAT Robust} = 0.036). We identified multiple novel rare risk variants contributing to MDD in the individuals with lower PRS of MDD. The findings can help to broaden the genetic insights of the MDD pathogenesis.

Polygenic and socioeconomic risk for high body mass index: 69 years of follow-up across life

Genetic influences on body mass index (BMI) appear to markedly differ across life, yet existing research is equivocal and limited by a paucity of life course data. We thus used a birth cohort study to investigate differences in association and explained variance in polygenic risk for high BMI across infancy to old age (2-69 years). A secondary aim was to investigate how the association between BMI and a key purported environmental determinant (childhood socioeconomic position) differed across life, and whether this operated independently and/or multiplicatively of genetic influences. Data were from up to 2677 participants in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, with measured BMI at 12 timepoints from 2-69 years. We used multiple polygenic indices from GWAS of adult and childhood BMI, and investigated their associations with BMI at each age. For polygenic liability to higher adult BMI, the trajectories of effect size (β) and explained variance (R2) diverged: explained variance peaked in early adulthood and plateaued thereafter, while absolute effect sizes increased throughout adulthood. For polygenic liability to higher childhood BMI, explained variance was largest in adolescence and early adulthood; effect sizes were marginally smaller in absolute terms from adolescence to adulthood. All polygenic indices were related to higher variation in BMI; quantile regression analyses showed that effect sizes were sizably larger at the upper end of the BMI distribution. Socioeconomic and polygenic risk for higher BMI across life appear to operate additively; we found little evidence of interaction. Our findings highlight the likely independent influences of polygenic and socioeconomic factors on BMI across life. Despite sizable associations, the BMI variance explained by each plateaued or declined across adulthood while BMI variance itself increased. This is suggestive of the increasing importance of chance ('non-shared') environmental influences on BMI across life.

Construction and Application of Polygenic Risk Scores in Autoimmune Diseases

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified hundreds of genetic variants associated with autoimmune diseases and provided unique mechanistic insights and informed novel treatments. These individual genetic variants on their own typically confer a small effect of disease risk with limited predictive power; however, when aggregated (e.g., via polygenic risk score method), they could provide meaningful risk predictions for a myriad of diseases. In this review, we describe the recent advances in GWAS for autoimmune diseases and the practical application of this knowledge to predict an individual’s susceptibility/severity for autoimmune diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) via the polygenic risk score method. We provide an overview of methods for deriving different polygenic risk scores and discuss the strategies to integrate additional information from correlated traits and diverse ancestries. We further advocate for the need to integrate clinical features (e.g., anti-nuclear antibody status) with genetic profiling to better identify patients at high risk of disease susceptibility/severity even before clinical signs or symptoms develop. We conclude by discussing future challenges and opportunities of applying polygenic risk score methods in clinical care.

Capturing additional genetic risk from family history for improved polygenic risk prediction

Family history of complex traits may reflect transmitted rare pathogenic variants, intra-familial shared exposures to environmental and lifestyle factors, as well as a common genetic predisposition. We developed a latent factor model to quantify trait heritability in excess of that captured by a common variant-based polygenic risk score, but inferable from family history. For 941 children in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort, a joint predictor combining a polygenic risk score for height and mid-parental height was able to explain ^~55% of the total variance in sex-adjusted adult height z-scores, close to the estimated heritability. Marginal yet consistent risk prediction improvements were also achieved among ^~400,000 European ancestry participants for 11 complex diseases in the UK Biobank. Our work showcases a paradigm for risk calculation, and supports incorporation of family history into polygenic risk score-based genetic risk prediction models.

Coming of Age: Human Genomics and the Cancer-Immune Set Point

Cancer is largely a disease of the tumor cell genome. As a result, the majority of genetics research in oncology has concentrated on the role of tumor somatic mutations, as well as inherited risk variants, in disease susceptibility and response to targeted treatments. The advent and success of cancer immunotherapies, however, have opened new perspectives for the investigation of the role of inherited genetic variation in codetermining outcome and safety. It is increasingly likely that the entirety of germline genetic variation involved in regulating immune responses accounts for a significant fraction of the observed variability in responses to cancer immunotherapies. Although germline genetic data from patients treated with cancer immunotherapies are still scarce, this line of research benefits from a vast body of knowledge derived from studies into autoimmune and infectious disease phenotypes, thus not requiring a start from a blank slate. Here, we discuss how a thorough investigation of genomic variation relevant for individuals' variability in (auto)immune responses can contribute to the discovery of novel treatment approaches and drug targets, and yield predictive biomarkers to stratify cancer patient populations in precision and personalized medicine settings.

Genetics in chronic kidney disease: conclusions from a Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Controversies Conference

Numerous genes for monogenic kidney diseases with classical patterns of inheritance, as well as genes for complex kidney diseases that manifest in combination with environmental factors, have been discovered. Genetic findings are increasingly used to inform clinical management of nephropathies, and have led to improved diagnostics, disease surveillance, choice of therapy, and family counseling. All of these steps rely on accurate interpretation of genetic data, which can be outpaced by current rates of data collection. In March of 2021, Kidney Diseases: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) held a Controversies Conference on "Genetics in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD)" to review the current state of understanding of monogenic and complex (polygenic) kidney diseases, processes for applying genetic findings in clinical medicine, and use of genomics for defining and stratifying CKD. Given the important contribution of genetic variants to CKD, practitioners with CKD patients are advised to "think genetic," which specifically involves obtaining a family history, collecting detailed information on age of CKD onset, performing clinical examination for extrarenal symptoms, and considering genetic testing. To improve the use of genetics in nephrology, meeting participants advised developing an advanced training or subspecialty track for nephrologists, crafting guidelines for testing and treatment, and educating patients, students, and practitioners. Key areas of future research, including clinical interpretation of genome variation, electronic phenotyping, global representation, kidney-specific molecular data, polygenic scores, translational epidemiology, and open data resources, were also identified.

A Polygenic Score for Type 2 Diabetes Improves Risk Stratification Beyond Current Clinical Screening Factors in an Ancestrally Diverse Sample

A substantial proportion of the adult United States population with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are undiagnosed, calling into question the comprehensiveness of current screening practices, which primarily rely on age, family history, and body mass index (BMI). We hypothesized that a polygenic score (PGS) may serve as a complementary tool to identify high-risk individuals. The T2D polygenic score maintained predictive utility after adjusting for family history and combining genetics with family history led to even more improved disease risk prediction. We observed that the PGS was meaningfully related to age of onset with implications for screening practices: there was a linear and statistically significant relationship between the PGS and T2D onset (-1.3 years per standard deviation of the PGS). Evaluation of U.S. Preventive Task Force and a simplified version of American Diabetes Association screening guidelines showed that addition of a screening criterion for those above the 90th percentile of the PGS provided a small increase the sensitivity of the screening algorithm. Among T2D-negative individuals, the T2D PGS was associated with prediabetes, where each standard deviation increase of the PGS was associated with a 23% increase in the odds of prediabetes diagnosis. Additionally, each standard deviation increase in the PGS corresponded to a 43% increase in the odds of incident T2D at one-year follow-up. Using complications and forms of clinical intervention (i.e., lifestyle modification, metformin treatment, or insulin treatment) as proxies for advanced illness we also found statistically significant associations between the T2D PGS and insulin treatment and diabetic neuropathy. Importantly, we were able to replicate many findings in a Hispanic/Latino cohort from our database, highlighting the value of the T2D PGS as a clinical tool for individuals with ancestry other than European. In this group, the T2D PGS provided additional disease risk information beyond that offered by traditional screening methodologies. The T2D PGS also had predictive value for the age of onset and for prediabetes among T2D-negative Hispanic/Latino participants. These findings strengthen the notion that a T2D PGS could play a role in the clinical setting across multiple ancestries, potentially improving T2D screening practices, risk stratification, and disease management.

Variation in cardiovascular disease risk factors among older adults in the Hunter Community Study cohort; a comparison of diet quality versus polygenic risk score

Background

The interplay between cardiovascular disease (CVD) genetic risk indexed by a polygenic risk score (PRS) and diet quality still requires further investigation amongst older adults or those with established or treated CVD. The present study aimed to evaluate the relative contribution of diet quality, measured using the Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS) and PRS, with respect to explaining variation in plasma lipids CVD outcomes in the Hunter Cohort.

Methods

The study comprised a secondary analysis of cross‐sectional data from the Hunter Cohort study. Single‐nucleotide polymorphisms from previously derived polygenic scores (PGSs) for three lipid classes were obtained: low‐density lipoprotein, high‐density lipoprotein and triglycerides, as well as PRS for coronary artery disease (CAD) from the PGS catalogue. Regression modelling and odds ratios were used to determine associations between PRS, ARFS and CVD risk.

Results

In total, 1703 participants were included: mean ± SD age 66 ± 7.4 years, 51% female, mean ± SD total ARFS 28.1 ± 8 (out of 74). Total diet quality and vegetable subscale were not significantly associated with measured lipids. By contrast, PGS for each lipid demonstrated a markedly strong, statistically significant correlation with its respective measured lipid. There was a significant association between CAD PRS and 5/6 CVD phenotypes (all except atrial fibrillation), with the largest effect size shown with coronary bypass. Adding dietary intake as a covariate did not change this relationship.

Conclusions

Lipid PGS explained more variance in measured lipids than diet quality. However, the poor diet quality observed in the current cohort may have limited the ability to observe any beneficial effects. Future research should investigate whether the diet quality of older adults can be improved and also the effect of these improvements on changes in polygenic risk.

The Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS) had little association with lipid and cardiovascular disease (CVD) endpoints.

Lipid polygenic score (PGS) explained more variance in measured lipids than diet quality.

The lipid PGS was associated with all three lipid parameters and some CVD endpoints, especially high cholesterol.

Coronary artery disease polygenic risk score was associated with CVD endpoints angina, coronary bypass, heart attack, high cholesterol and hypertension and some lipid parameters (high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol).

Polygenic risk for prostate cancer: Decreasing relative risk with age but little impact on absolute risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for a variety of diseases have recently been shown to have relative risks that depend on age, and genetic relative risks decrease with increasing age. A refined understanding of the age dependency of PRSs for a disease is important for personalized risk predictions and risk stratification. To further evaluate how the PRS relative risk for prostate cancer depends on age, we refined analyses for a validated PRS for prostate cancer by using 64,274 prostate cancer cases and 46,432 controls of diverse ancestry (82.8% European, 9.8% African American, 3.8% Latino, 2.8% Asian, and 0.8% Ghanaian). Our strategy applied a novel weighted proportional hazards model to case-control data to fully utilize age to refine how the relative risk decreased with age. We found significantly greater relative risks for younger men (age 30-55 years) compared with older men (70-88 years) for both relative risk per standard deviation of the PRS and dichotomized according to the upper 90^th percentile of the PRS distribution. For the largest European ancestral group that could provide reliable resolution, the log-relative risk decreased approximately linearly from age 50 to age 75. Despite strong evidence of age-dependent genetic relative risk, our results suggest that absolute risk predictions differed little from predictions that assumed a constant relative risk over ages, from short-term to long-term predictions, simplifying implementation of risk discussions into clinical practice.

Integrating polygenic risk scores in the prediction of type 2 diabetes risk and subtypes in British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is highly prevalent in British South Asians, yet they are underrepresented in research. Genes & Health (G&H) is a large, population study of British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis (BPB) comprising genomic and routine health data. We assessed the extent to which genetic risk for T2D is shared between BPB and European populations (EUR). We then investigated whether the integration of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for T2D with an existing risk tool (QDiabetes) could improve prediction of incident disease and the characterisation of disease subtypes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this observational cohort study, we assessed whether common genetic loci associated with T2D in EUR individuals were replicated in 22,490 BPB individuals in G&H. We replicated fewer loci in G&H (n = 76/338, 22%) than would be expected given power if all EUR-ascertained loci were transferable (n = 101, 30%; p = 0.001). Of the 27 transferable loci that were powered to interrogate this, only 9 showed evidence of shared causal variants. We constructed a T2D PRS and combined it with a clinical risk instrument (QDiabetes) in a novel, integrated risk tool (IRT) to assess risk of incident diabetes. To assess model performance, we compared categorical net reclassification index (NRI) versus QDiabetes alone. In 13,648 patients free from T2D followed up for 10 years, NRI was 3.2% for IRT versus QDiabetes (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.0% to 4.4%). IRT performed best in reclassification of individuals aged less than 40 years deemed low risk by QDiabetes alone (NRI 5.6%, 95% CI 3.6% to 7.6%), who tended to be free from comorbidities and slim. After adjustment for QDiabetes score, PRS was independently associated with progression to T2D after gestational diabetes (hazard ratio (HR) per SD of PRS 1.23, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.42, p = 0.028). Using cluster analysis of clinical features at diabetes diagnosis, we replicated previously reported disease subgroups, including Mild Age-Related, Mild Obesity-related, and Insulin-Resistant Diabetes, and showed that PRS distribution differs between subgroups (p = 0.002). Integrating PRS in this cluster analysis revealed a Probable Severe Insulin Deficient Diabetes (pSIDD) subgroup, despite the absence of clinical measures of insulin secretion or resistance. We also observed differences in rates of progression to micro- and macrovascular complications between subgroups after adjustment for confounders. Study limitations include the absence of an external replication cohort and the potential biases arising from missing or incorrect routine health data.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis of the transferability of T2D loci between EUR and BPB indicates the need for larger, multiancestry studies to better characterise the genetic contribution to disease and its varied aetiology. We show that a T2D PRS optimised for this high-risk BPB population has potential clinical application in BPB, improving the identification of T2D risk (especially in the young) on top of an established clinical risk algorithm and aiding identification of subgroups at diagnosis, which may help future efforts to stratify care and treatment of the disease.

Development of a clinical polygenic risk score assay and reporting workflow

Implementation of polygenic risk scores (PRS) may improve disease prevention and management but poses several challenges: the construction of clinically valid assays, interpretation for individual patients, and the development of clinical workflows and resources to support their use in patient care. For the ongoing Veterans Affairs Genomic Medicine at Veterans Affairs (GenoVA) Study we developed a clinical genotype array-based assay for six published PRS. We used data from 36,423 Mass General Brigham Biobank participants and adjustment for population structure to replicate known PRS-disease associations and published PRS thresholds for a disease odds ratio (OR) of 2 (ranging from 1.75 (95% CI: 1.57-1.95) for type 2 diabetes to 2.38 (95% CI: 2.07-2.73) for breast cancer). After confirming the high performance and robustness of the pipeline for use as a clinical assay for individual patients, we analyzed the first 227 prospective samples from the GenoVA Study and found that the frequency of PRS corresponding to published OR > 2 ranged from 13/227 (5.7%) for colorectal cancer to 23/150 (15.3%) for prostate cancer. In addition to the PRS laboratory report, we developed physician- and patient-oriented informational materials to support decision-making about PRS results. Our work illustrates the generalizable development of a clinical PRS assay for multiple conditions and the technical, reporting and clinical workflow challenges for implementing PRS information in the clinic.

Independent evaluation of melanoma polygenic risk scores in UK and Australian prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) may improve melanoma risk stratification. However, there has been limited independent validation of PRS-based risk prediction, particularly assessment of calibration (comparing predicted to observed risks).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate PRS-based melanoma risk prediction in prospective UK and Australian cohorts with European ancestry.

METHODS

We analysed invasive melanoma incidence in the UK Biobank (UKB; n = 395 647, 1651 cases) and a case-cohort nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS, Australia; n = 4765, 303 cases). Three PRSs were evaluated: 68 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 54 loci from a 2020 meta-analysis (PRS68), 50 SNPs significant in the 2020 meta-analysis excluding UKB (PRS50) and 45 SNPs at 21 loci known in 2018 (PRS45). Ten-year melanoma risks were calculated from population-level cancer registry data by age group and sex, with and without PRS adjustment.

RESULTS

Predicted absolute melanoma risks based on age and sex alone underestimated melanoma incidence in the UKB [ratio of expected/observed cases: E/O = 0·65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·62-0·68] and MCCS (E/O = 0·63, 95% CI 0·56-0·72). For UKB, calibration was improved by PRS adjustment, with PRS50-adjusted risks E/O = 0·91, 95% CI 0·87-0·95. The discriminative ability for PRS68- and PRS50-adjusted absolute risks was higher than for risks based on age and sex alone (Δ area under the curve 0·07-0·10, P < 0·0001), and higher than for PRS45-adjusted risks (Δ area under the curve 0·02-0·04, P < 0·001).

CONCLUSIONS

A PRS derived from a larger, more diverse meta-analysis improves risk prediction compared with an earlier PRS, and might help tailor melanoma prevention and early detection strategies to different risk levels. Recalibration of absolute risks may be necessary for application to specific populations.

Prostate cancer polygenic risk score and prediction of lethal prostate cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for prostate cancer incidence have been proposed to optimize prostate cancer screening. Prediction of lethal prostate cancer is key to any stratified screening program to avoid excessive overdiagnosis. Herein, PRS for incident prostate cancer was evaluated in two population-based cohorts of unscreened middle-aged men linked to cancer and death registries: the Västerbotten Intervention Project (VIP) and the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (MDC). SNP genotypes were measured by genome-wide SNP genotyping by array followed by imputation or genotyping of selected SNPs using mass spectrometry. The ability of PRS to predict lethal prostate cancer was compared to PSA and a commercialized pre-specified model based on four kallikrein markers. The PRS was associated with incident prostate cancer, replicating previously reported relative risks, and was also associated with prostate cancer death. However, unlike PSA, the PRS did not show stronger association with lethal disease: the hazard ratio for prostate cancer incidence vs. prostate cancer metastasis and death was 1.69 vs. 1.65 in VIP and 1.25 vs. 1.25 in MDC. PSA was a much stronger predictor of prostate cancer metastasis or death with an area-under-the-curve of 0.78 versus 0.63 for the PRS. Importantly, addition of PRS to PSA did not contribute additional risk stratification for lethal prostate cancer. We have shown that a PRS that predicts prostate cancer incidence does not have utility above and beyond that of PSA measured at baseline when applied to the clinically relevant endpoint of prostate cancer death. These findings have implications for public health policies for delivery of prostate cancer screening. Focusing polygenic risk scores on clinically significant endpoints such as prostate cancer metastasis or death would likely improve clinical utility.

A Family and a Genome-Wide Polygenic Risk Score Are Independently Associated With Stroke in a Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Positive family history and genetic risk scores have been shown to independently capture those individuals with high risk for stroke. The aim of our study was to evaluate the amount of shared information between family history and genetic risk and to investigate their combined effect on the association with prevalent and incident stroke cases.

METHODS

We obtained a family risk score (FamRS), weighted for disease onset and family size as well as genome-wide polygenic risk score (PGS) including over 3.2 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the population-based prospective KORA F3 (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) study (n=3071) from Southern Germany. FamRS and PGS were evaluated separately and combined. The measures were once treated as continuous variables but also divided in the highest 20%, 10%, 5%, and 1% percentiles. Odds ratios via logistic regression and hazard ratios via Cox regression were estimated. A stroke event was defined as a hospitalization for stroke that was self-reported in a standardized interview by certified and supervised personnel.

RESULTS

The FamRS outperformed other simplified family measures such as affected parents or number of affected family members. FamRS and PGS were not correlated, and no individuals were observed with both very high FamRS and very high PGS (top 1% percentile). In a combined model, both FamRS and PGS were independently from each other associated with risk of stroke, also independent of other traditional risk factors (p [FamRS]=0.02, p [PGS]=0.005). Individuals in the top 1% of either FamRS or PGS were found to have >5-fold risk for stroke (odds ratios, 5.82 [95% CI, 2.08-14]; P=0.0002). The results for incident stroke events showed the same trend but were not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that a family risk score and PGS capture different information concerning individual stroke risk. Combining the risk measures FamRS and PGS increases predictive power, as demonstrated in a population-based study.