Developmental stasis, sensitivity, and disturbance: Linking concepts to analytic methods using impulsivity and alcohol use

The goals of this article are to (a) describe and contrast conceptual characteristics of periods of developmental sensitivity, disturbance, and stasis, and (b) translate these concepts to testable analytic models with an example dataset. Although the concept of developmental sensitivity is widely known, the concepts of developmental stasis and disturbance have received less attention. We first define the concepts and their principles and then, using repeated measures data on impulsivity and alcohol use from adolescence to young adulthood, propose the dual latent change score (LCS) growth model as one analytic approach for evaluating evidence for key characteristics of these developmental concepts via examination of intraindividual time-varying associations.

Weight calibration in the joint modelling of medical cost and mortality

Joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is a method that recognizes the dependency between the two data types, and combines the two outcomes into a single model, which leads to more precise estimates. These models are applicable when individuals are followed over a period of time, generally to monitor the progression of a disease or a medical condition, and also when longitudinal covariates are available. Medical cost datasets are often also available in longitudinal scenarios, but these datasets usually arise from a complex sampling design rather than simple random sampling and such complex sampling design needs to be accounted for in the statistical analysis. Ignoring the sampling mechanism can lead to misleading conclusions. This article proposes a novel approach to the joint modelling of complex data by combining survey calibration with standard joint modelling. This is achieved by incorporating a new set of equations to calibrate the sampling weights for the survival model in a joint model setting. The proposed method is applied to data on anti-dementia medication costs and mortality in people with diagnosed dementia in New Zealand.

Trajectories of cortical structures associated with stress across adolescence: a bivariate latent change score approach

BACKGROUND

Stress exposure in childhood and adolescence has been linked to reductions in cortical structures and cognitive functioning. However, to date, most of these studies have been cross-sectional, limiting the ability to make long-term inferences, given that most cortical structures continue to develop through adolescence.

METHODS

Here, we used a subset of the IMAGEN population cohort sample (N = 502; assessment ages: 14, 19, and 22 years; mean age: 21.945 years; SD = 0.610) to understand longitudinally the long-term interrelations between stress, cortical development, and cognitive functioning. To these ends, we first used a latent change score model to examine four bivariate relations - assessing individual differences in change in the relations between adolescent stress exposure and volume, surface area, and cortical thickness of cortical structures, as well as cognitive outcomes. Second, we probed for indirect neurocognitive effects linking stress to cortical brain structures and cognitive functions using rich longitudinal mediation modeling.

RESULTS

Latent change score modeling showed that greater baseline adolescence stress at age 14 predicted a small reduction in the right anterior cingulate volume (Std. β = -.327, p = .042, 95% CI [-0.643, -0.012]) and right anterior cingulate surface area (Std. β = -.274, p = .038, 95% CI [-0.533, -0.015]) across ages 14-22. These effects were very modest in nature and became nonsignificant after correcting for multiple comparisons. Our longitudinal analyses found no evidence of indirect effects in the two neurocognitive pathways linking adolescent stress to brain and cognitive outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Findings shed light on the impact of stress on brain reductions, particularly in the prefrontal cortex that have consistently been implicated in the previous cross-sectional studies. However, the magnitude of effects observed in our study is smaller than that has been reported in past cross-sectional work. This suggests that the potential impact of stress during adolescence on brain structures may likely be more modest than previously noted.

Research Review: A guide to computing and implementing polygenic scores in developmental research

The increasing availability of genotype data in longitudinal population- and family-based samples provides opportunities for using polygenic scores (PGS) to study developmental questions in child and adolescent psychology and psychiatry. Here, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of how PGS can be generated and implemented in developmental psycho(patho)logy, with a focus on longitudinal designs. As such, the paper is organized into three parts: First, we provide a formal definition of polygenic scores and related concepts, focusing on assumptions and limitations. Second, we give a general overview of the methods used to compute polygenic scores, ranging from the classic approach to more advanced methods. We include recommendations and reference resources available to researchers aiming to conduct PGS analyses. Finally, we focus on the practical applications of PGS in the analysis of longitudinal data. We describe how PGS have been used to research developmental outcomes, and how they can be applied to longitudinal data to address developmental questions.

How Selection Over Time Contributes to the Inconsistency of the Association Between Sex/Gender and Cognitive Decline Across Cognitive Aging Cohorts

The association between sex/gender and aging-related cognitive decline remains poorly understood because of inconsistencies in findings. Such heterogeneity could be attributable to the cognitive functions studied and study population characteristics, but also to differential selection by dropout and death between men and women. We aimed to evaluate the impact of selection by dropout and death on the association between sex/gender and cognitive decline. We first compared the statistical methods most frequently used for longitudinal data, targeting either population estimands (marginal models fitted by generalized estimating equations) or subject-specific estimands (mixed/joint models fitted by likelihood maximization) in 8 studies of aging: 6 population-based studies (the Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly (ACTIVE) Study (1996-2009), Personnes Âgées QUID (PAQUID; 1988-2014), the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study (2003-2016), the Three-City Study (Bordeaux only; 1999-2016), the Washington Heights-Inwood Community Aging Project (WHICAP; 1992-2017), and the Whitehall II Study (2007-2016)) and 2 clinic-based studies (the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI; 2004-2017) and a nationwide French cohort study, MEMENTO (2011-2016)). We illustrate differences in the estimands of the association between sex/gender and cognitive decline in selected examples and highlight the critical role of differential selection by dropout and death. Using the same estimand, we then contrast the sex/gender-cognitive decline associations across cohorts and cognitive measures suggesting a residual differential sex/gender association depending on the targeted cognitive measure (memory or animal fluency) and the initial cohort selection. We recommend focusing on subject-specific estimands in the living population for assessing sex/gender differences while handling differential selection over time.

Rising vape pod popularity disrupted declining use of electronic nicotine delivery systems among young adults in Texas, USA from 2014 to 2019

AIMS

To examine the longitudinal trajectory of young Texan (US) adults' electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use from 2014 to 2019, and to determine if there are changes in the trajectory among younger and older young adults post-2017, when vape pods surged in popularity in the United States.

DESIGN

Nine-wave longitudinal study, with 6 months between each of the first eight waves and 1 year between the last two waves. Discontinuous, or piecewise, growth curve models were used to test the hypotheses that (a) the overall current/past 30-day ENDS use trajectory would decline from 2014 to spring 2017 but then increase from fall 2017 to 2019, and (b) the increasing trajectory from 2017 to 2019 would occur only for younger participants, but not older participants. All models included socio-demographic covariates of sex, race/ethnicity, type of college attended at baseline (2- or 4-year) and time-varying age.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 5218 students (aged 18-25 years at baseline; 63.7% female) from 24 colleges in the five counties surrounding Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio, Texas, USA.

MEASUREMENTS

Participants completed on-line surveys regarding past 30-day ENDS use at all nine waves.

FINDINGS

Current ENDS use significantly declined from 2014 to spring 2017 [odds ratio (OR) = 0.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.59-0.68], and then significantly increased from autumn 2017 to 2019 (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01-1.29). Further examination indicated the increase in current ENDS use from autumn 2017 to 2019 occurred only for younger [-1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean age, 22.6 years old], but not older (+1 SD above the mean age, 26.2 years old), participants.

CONCLUSION

The surge in the popularity of vape pods in the United States in late 2017 may have contributed to increasing use of electronic nicotine delivery systems among younger young adults (below 22.6 years) from late 2017 to 2019.

The role of substance use coping in linking depression and alcohol use from late adolescence through early adulthood

Although theoretical models highlight the role of coping motivations in promoting co-development of depression and alcohol use, few longitudinal studies have examined such processes across early adulthood. The current study examined the role of coping in the association between depression and alcohol use across late adolescence and early adulthood. A control sample of adolescents (N = 498) from a longitudinal prevention trial completed the Brief Symptom Inventory, Life Events Coping Inventory, and a self-report survey on alcohol use at ages 17, 22, and 23, as well as the Composite International Diagnostic Interview at age 28-30. Path analyses integrated self-report and diagnostic measures. Although gender differences were observed in mean levels of depression, alcohol use, and the use of substances to cope, we did not find gender differences in structural relations across these domains over time. Substance use coping served as an intervening pathway in the association between alcohol use and depression both at the symptom level from age 17 to 23, and in predicting longer term diagnostic outcomes at ages 28-30. Depressive symptoms in early adulthood were indirectly related to major depressive disorder (MDD) through two independent paths, including the stability of depressive symptoms over time, and through the influence of depression on increasing the tendency to use substances to cope with stress. Our results underscore that coping effects provide unique predictive power across developmental transitions, over and above the stability of depressive symptoms and alcohol use, underscoring coping motives as a promising intervention target that may prevent co-occurring depression and substance use. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Joint Longitudinal Models for Dealing With Missing at Random Data in Trial-Based Economic Evaluations

OBJECTIVES

In trial-based economic evaluation, some individuals are typically associated with missing data at some time point, so that their corresponding aggregated outcomes (eg, quality-adjusted life-years) cannot be evaluated. Restricting the analysis to the complete cases is inefficient and can result in biased estimates, while imputation methods are often implemented under a missing at random (MAR) assumption. We propose the use of joint longitudinal models to extend standard approaches by taking into account the longitudinal structure to improve the estimation of the targeted quantities under MAR.

METHODS

We compare the results from methods that handle missingness at an aggregated (case deletion, baseline imputation, and joint aggregated models) and disaggregated (joint longitudinal models) level under MAR. The methods are compared using a simulation study and applied to data from 2 real case studies.

RESULTS

Simulations show that, according to which data affect the missingness process, aggregated methods may lead to biased results, while joint longitudinal models lead to valid inferences under MAR. The analysis of the 2 case studies support these results as both parameter estimates and cost-effectiveness results vary based on the amount of data incorporated into the model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses suggest that methods implemented at the aggregated level are potentially biased under MAR as they ignore the information from the partially observed follow-up data. This limitation can be overcome by extending the analysis to a longitudinal framework using joint models, which can incorporate all the available evidence.

Transactional associations of maternal depressive symptoms with child externalizing behaviors are small after age 3

A large and growing body of research suggests that maternal depressive symptoms and child externalizing behaviors are strongly associated. Theoretical arguments supported by these findings led to the question of whether maternal depressive symptoms are transactionally associated with child externalizing behaviors. Using 5-year nationally representative longitudinal data from Turkey (N = 1,052), we estimated a transactional bivariate autoregressive latent trajectory model addressing this question. This model disaggregated the association of the two processes into two components: (a) the association of the interindividual differences in the trajectories; and (b) the intradyad association of the changes in maternal depressive symptoms with the changes in child externalizing behaviors. Although maternal depressive symptoms were robustly associated with child externalizing behaviors at age 3, the transactional associations of the two processes were small prior to age 5 and absent at ages 5 to 7. Furthermore, maternal harsh parenting did not have a mediating role in the limited transactional association of maternal depressive symptoms with child externalizing behaviors.

Bidirectional effects between parenting sensitivity and child behavior: A cross-lagged analysis across middle childhood and adolescence

Using a longitudinal, cross-lagged design, this study examined the bidirectional relations between mothers' and fathers' sensitivity and children's externalizing (EXT) and internalizing (INT) behavior from middle childhood into adolescence. The subsample comprised families (N = 578) in which the mother and father cohabitated from the study's first time point (child age = 54 months) through Age 15 in the longitudinal NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Study results revealed differential patterns for mother-child and father-child relations in the full sample and separately for males and females. The full cross-lagged models revealed that child EXT behavior predicted maternal sensitivity, but not vice versa, and fathers' sensitivity and child behavior were reciprocally interrelated. There was a significant indirect pathway from early paternal sensitivity to later EXT in males, and from early maternal sensitivity to INT in females. The results point to the important roles that fathers play in child INT and EXT behaviors and important differences between males and females. (PsycINFO Database Record

A Smart-Home System to Unobtrusively and Continuously Assess Loneliness in Older Adults

Loneliness is a common condition in older adults and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, decreased sleep quality, and increased risk of cognitive decline. Assessing loneliness in older adults is challenging due to the negative desirability biases associated with being lonely. Thus, it is necessary to develop more objective techniques to assess loneliness in older adults. In this paper, we describe a system to measure loneliness by assessing in-home behavior using wireless motion and contact sensors, phone monitors, and computer software as well as algorithms developed to assess key behaviors of interest. We then present results showing the accuracy of the system in detecting loneliness in a longitudinal study of 16 older adults who agreed to have the sensor platform installed in their own homes for up to 8 months. We show that loneliness is significantly associated with both time out-of-home (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$ {\beta } = -0.88$ \end{document} and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$p<0.01$ \end{document}) and number of computer sessions (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$ {\beta } = 0.78$ \end{document} and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$p<0.05$ \end{document}). \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$R^{2}$ \end{document} for the model was 0.35. We also show the model’s ability to predict out-of-sample loneliness, demonstrating that the correlation between true loneliness and predicted out-of-sample loneliness is 0.48. When compared with the University of California at Los Angeles loneliness score, the normalized mean absolute error of the predicted loneliness scores was 0.81 and the normalized root mean squared error was 0.91. These results represent first steps toward an unobtrusive, objective method for the prediction of loneliness among older adults, and mark the first time multiple objective behavioral measures that have been related to this key health outcome.

Longitudinal perspectives of child positive impact on families: relationship to disability and culture

This study examined mothers' perceptions of the positive impact of having a child with an intellectual disability. Trajectories of positive impact from 7 time points were developed using latent growth modeling and 2 predictors: culture (Anglo, Latino) and child disability status (intellectual disability, typical development). Data were from 219 mothers of children from age 3 to 9 years. Growth trajectories reflected a general decline in positive impact on Anglo mothers. On average, at age 3, Anglo mothers reported significantly lower initial values on positive impact when their children had an intellectual disability, but Latino mothers did not. Across all time points, Latino mothers had higher scores on the positive impact, regardless of whether they had a child with an intellectual disability or a typically developing child.

What is learned from longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking? A critical assessment

This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation.