Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions

Assessing the threat to montane biodiversity from discordant shifts in temperature and precipitation in a changing climate

Mountains are centres of global biodiversity, endemism and threatened species. Elevational gradients present opportunities for species currently living near their upper thermal limits to track cooler temperatures upslope in warming climates, but only if changes in precipitation are sufficiently in step with temperature. We model local population extirpation risk for a range of temperature and precipitation scenarios over the next 100 years for 16 848 vertebrate species populations distributed along 156 elevational gradients. Average population extirpation risks due to warming alone were < 5%, but increased 10-fold, on average, when changes in precipitation were also considered. Under the driest scenarios (minimum predicted precipitation), local extirpation risks increased sharply (50-60%) and were especially worrisome for hydrophilic amphibians and montane Latin America (c. 80%). Realistic assessment of risks urgently requires improved monitoring of precipitation, better regional precipitation models and more research on the effects of changes in precipitation on montane distributions.

Reconciling global mammal prioritization schemes into a strategy

The huge conservation interest that mammals attract and the large datasets that have been collected on them have propelled a diversity of global mammal prioritization schemes, but no comprehensive global mammal conservation strategy. We highlight some of the potential discrepancies between the schemes presented in this theme issue, including: conservation of species or areas, reactive and proactive conservation approaches, conservation knowledge and action, levels of aggregation of indicators of trend and scale issues. We propose that recently collected global mammal data and many of the mammal prioritization schemes now available could be incorporated into a comprehensive global strategy for the conservation of mammals. The task of developing such a strategy should be coordinated by a super-partes, authoritative institution (e.g. the International Union for Conservation of Nature, IUCN). The strategy would facilitate funding agencies, conservation organizations and national institutions to rapidly identify a number of short-term and long-term global conservation priorities, and act complementarily to achieve them.

Implications of Plasmodium parasite infected mosquitoes on an insular avifauna: the case of Socorro Island, México

Avian malaria (Plasmodium spp.) has been implicated in the decline of avian populations in the Hawaiian Islands and it is generally agreed that geographically isolated and immunologically naïve bird populations are particularly vulnerable to the pathogenic effects of invasive malaria parasites. In order to assess the potential disease risk of malaria to the avifauna of Socorro Island, México, we surveyed for Plasmodium isolates from 1,300 resident field-caught mosquitoes. Most of them were identified as Aedes (Ochlerotatus) taeniorhynchus (Wiedemann, 1821), which were abundant in the salt marshes. We also collected Culex quinquefasciatus Say, 1823 close to human dwellings. Mitochondrial ND5 and COII gene sequences of Ae. taeniorhynchus were analyzed and compared to corresponding sequences of mosquitoes of the Galápagos Islands, Latin America, and the North American mainland. Aedes lineages from Socorro Island clustered most closely with a lineage from the continental U.S. Plasmodium spp. DNA was isolated from both species of mosquitoes. From 38 positive pools, we isolated 11 distinct mitochondrial Cytb lineages of Plasmodium spp. Seven of the Plasmodium lineages represent previously documented avian infective strains while four were new lineages. Our results confirm a potential risk for the spread of avian malaria and underscore the need to monitor both the mosquito and avian populations as a necessary conservation measure to protect endangered bird species on Socorro Island.

Areas of endemism of Cactaceae and the effectiveness of the protected area network in the Chihuahuan Desert

We used distribution data of 121 cactus species endemic to the Chihuahuan Desert to test the effectiveness of the region’s protected area network. The analysis of species distribution using a 30′ latitude × 30′ longitude grid facilitated the identification and categorization of areas of endemism. We found a low degree of coincidence between protected areas and the areas of cactus endemism, and only 63.6% of the 121 species occur in protected areas. A complementarity analysis showed that 10 of the protected areas contain the 77 species that occur in protected areas. The four top priority areas protect 65 (84.4%) of these 77 species The 44 unprotected species are mainly micro-endemic and taxonomically distinctive taxa widely scattered in the region. The complementarity analysis applied to these species showed that all of them can be contained in a minimum of 24 grid squares, representing 32.9% of the total area occupied. Their strong spatial dispersion, along with their narrow endemism, is a major conservation challenge. We conclude that the current protected area network is insufficient to protect the rich assemblage of cacti endemic to the Chihuahuan Desert. Conservation efforts in this region should be enhanced by increasing the effectiveness of the already existing protected areas and by the creation of additional protected areas, specifically micro-reserves, to provide refuge for the unprotected species.

An extinct monkey from Haiti and the origins of the Greater Antillean primates

A new extinct Late Quaternary platyrrhine from Haiti, Insulacebus toussaintiana, is described here from the most complete Caribbean subfossil primate dentition yet recorded, demonstrating the likely coexistence of two primate species on Hispaniola. Like other Caribbean platyrrhines, I. toussaintiana exhibits primitive features resembling early Middle Miocene Patagonian fossils, reflecting an early derivation before the Amazonian community of modern New World anthropoids was configured. This, in combination with the young age of the fossils, provides a unique opportunity to examine a different parallel radiation of platyrrhines that survived into modern times, but is only distantly related to extant mainland forms. Their ecological novelty is indicated by their unique dental proportions, and by their relatively large estimated body weights, possibly an island effect, which places the group in a size class not exploited by mainland South American monkeys. Several features tie the new species to the extinct Jamaican monkey Xenothrix mcgregori, perhaps providing additional evidence for an inter-Antillean clade.

The impact of conservation on the status of the world's vertebrates

Using data for 25,780 species categorized on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, we present an assessment of the status of the world's vertebrates. One-fifth of species are classified as Threatened, and we show that this figure is increasing: On average, 52 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians move one category closer to extinction each year. However, this overall pattern conceals the impact of conservation successes, and we show that the rate of deterioration would have been at least one-fifth again as much in the absence of these. Nonetheless, current conservation efforts remain insufficient to offset the main drivers of biodiversity loss in these groups: agricultural expansion, logging, overexploitation, and invasive alien species.

Representation of global and national conservation priorities by Colombia's Protected Area Network

Background

How do national-level actions overlap with global priorities for conservation? Answering this question is especially important in countries with high and unique biological diversity like Colombia. Global biodiversity schemes provide conservation guidance at a large scale, while national governments gazette land for protection based on a combination of criteria at regional or local scales. Information on how a protected area network represents global and national conservation priorities is crucial for finding gaps in coverage and for future expansion of the system.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We evaluated the agreement of Colombia's protected area network with global conservation priorities, and the extent to which the network reflects the country's biomes, species richness, and common environmental and physical conditions. We used this information to identify priority biomes for conservation. We find the dominant strategy in Colombia has been a proactive one, allocating the highest proportion of protected land on intact, difficult to access and species rich areas like the Amazon. Threatened and unique areas are disproportionately absent from Colombia's protected lands. We highlight six biomes in Colombia as conservation priorities that should be considered in any future expansion of Colombia's protected area network. Two of these biomes have less than 3% of their area protected and more than 70% of their area transformed for human use. One has less than 3% protected and high numbers of threatened vertebrates. Three biomes fall in both categories.

Conclusions

Expansion of Colombia's Protected Area Network should consider the current representativeness of the network. We indicate six priority biomes that can contribute to improving the representation of threatened species and biomes in Colombia.

Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines

In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

The power of bioenergy-related standards to protect biodiversity

The sustainable production of bioenergy is vital to avoiding negative impacts on environmental goods such as climate, soil, water, and especially biodiversity. We propose three key issues that should be addressed in any biodiversity risk-mitigation strategy: conservation of areas of significant biodiversity value; mitigation of negative effects related to indirect land-use change; and promotion of agricultural practices with few negative impacts on biodiversity. Focusing on biodiversity concerns, we compared principles and criteria set to address biodiversity and other environmental and social issues in seven standards (defined here as commodity-based standards or roundtables, or relevant European legislation): five voluntary initiatives related to bioenergy feedstocks, the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (United Kingdom), and the European Renewable Energy Source Directive. Conservation of areas of significant biodiversity value was fairly well covered by these standards. Nevertheless, mitigation of negative impacts related to indirect land-use change was underrepresented. Although the EU directive, with its bonus system for the use of degraded land and a subquota system for noncrop biofuels, offered the most robust standards to mitigate potential negative effects, all of the standards fell short in promoting agricultural practices with low negative impacts on biodiversity. We strongly recommend that each standard be benchmarked against related standards, as we have done here, and that efforts should be made to strengthen the elements that are weak or missing. This would be a significant step toward achieving a bioenergy industry that safeguards Earth's living heritage.

Ecoregion prioritization suggests an armoury not a silver bullet for conservation planning

In the face of accelerating species extinctions, map-based prioritization systems are increasingly useful to decide where to pursue conservation action most effectively. However, a number of seemingly inconsistent schemes have emerged, mostly focussing on endemism. Here we use global vertebrate distributions in terrestrial ecoregions to evaluate how continuous and categorical ranking schemes target and accumulate endangered taxa within the IUCN Red List, Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE), and EDGE of Existence programme. We employed total, endemic and threatened species richness and an estimator for richness-adjusted endemism as metrics in continuous prioritization, and WWF's Global200 and Conservation International's (CI) Hotspots in categorical prioritization. Our results demonstrate that all metrics target endangerment more efficiently than by chance, but each selects unique sets of top-ranking ecoregions, which overlap only partially, and include different sets of threatened species. Using the top 100 ecoregions as defined by continuous prioritization metrics, we develop an inclusive map for global vertebrate conservation that incorporates important areas for endemism, richness, and threat. Finally, we assess human footprint and protection levels within these areas to reveal that endemism sites are more impacted but have more protection, in contrast to high richness and threat ones. Given such contrasts, major efforts to protect global biodiversity must involve complementary conservation approaches in areas of unique species as well as those with highest diversity and threat.

Evaluating the success of conservation actions in safeguarding tropical forest biodiversity

We reviewed the evidence on the extent and efficacy of conservation of tropical forest biodiversity for each of the classes of conservation action defined by the new International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classification. Protected areas are the most tested conservation approach, and a number of studies show they are generally effective in slowing deforestation. There is some documentation of the extent of sustainable timber management in tropical forest, but little information on other landscape-conservation tactics. The extent and effectiveness of ex situ species conservation is quite well known. Forty-one tropical-forest species now survive only in captivity. Other single-species conservation actions are not as well documented. The potential of policy mechanisms, such as international conventions and provision of funds, to slow extinctions in tropical forests is considerable, but the effects of policy are difficult to measure. Finally, interventions to promote tropical conservation by supporting education and livelihoods, providing incentives, and furthering capacity building are all thought to be important, but their extent and effectiveness remain poorly known. For birds, the best studied taxon, the sum of such conservation actions has averted one-fifth of the extinctions that would otherwise have occurred over the last century. Clearly, tropical forest conservation works, but more is needed, as is critical assessment of what works in what circumstances, if mass extinction is to be averted.

Plants on the IUCN Red List: setting priorities to inform conservation

The continuing decline of plant diversity will have a greater impact on human society than any other type of biodiversity loss. It is imperative, therefore, that efforts are increased to assess the conservation status of plants for the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the de facto baseline reference for many conservation decisions. As discussed here, a review of plants on the current Red List suggests that priorities for future Red Listing should serve multiple purposes: to inform national conservation policy, to contribute to global conservation analyses, to encompass the phylogenetic diversity of plants and to address the dependence of human societies on plants. Future progress in plant Red Listing requires greater participation by the world's herbaria and increased support for expert networks.

Botanic gardens science for conservation and global change

The contributions of botanic gardens to conservation biology and global-change research need to be understood within the context of the traditional strengths of such gardens in herbarium collections, living collections and interactions with the public. Here, I propose that research in conservation planning, modelling species responses to climate change, conservation of threatened species and experimental tests of global change build on the core strengths of botanic gardens. However, there are limits to what can be achieved through traditional gardens-based programs, and some botanic gardens have adapted their research to include studies of threatening processes and to monitor and verify global-change impacts. There is an opportunity for botanic gardens to use their living collections more effectively in global-change research and for them to have a role in linking biodiversity conservation with benefits derived from ecosystem services.

Conservation challenges for the Austral and Neotropical America section

The Austral and Neotropical America (ANA) section of the Society for Conservation Biology includes a vast territory with some of the largest relatively pristine ecosystems in the world. With more than 573 million people, the economic growth of the region still depends strongly on natural resource exploitation and still has high rates of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. A survey among the ANA section membership, with more than 700 members, including most of the section's prominent ecologists and conservationists, indicates that lack of capacity building for conservation, corruption, and threats such as deforestation and illegal trade of species, are among the most urgent problems that need to be addressed to improve conservation in the region. There are, however, strong universities and ecology groups taking the lead in environmental research and conservation, a most important issue to enhance the ability of the region to solve conservation and development conflicts.

Declines in common, widespread butterflies in a landscape under intense human use

Analyses of species' population losses typically show a dichotomy between strongly affected, rare, and localized species and apparently unaffected, common, and widespread species. We analyzed 16 years (1992-2007) of butterfly transect count data from The Netherlands in a reevaluation of the trends of common, widespread species. Fifty-five percent (11 of 20 species) of these species suffered severe declines in distribution and abundance. Overall, cumulative butterfly abundance declined by around 30%. Some of the species in decline used to be omnipresent in gardens and parks, and 2 of the species were previously considered agricultural pests. Based on their declines over the last 16 years, 2 of the 20 species (Lasiommata megera and Gonepteryx rhamni) reached endangered status in The Netherlands under the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) population-decline criterion, and 2 species (Inachis io and Thymelicus lineola) met vulnerable criterion. Butterflies in farmland, urban, and particularly woodland areas showed the largest decline in species abundance. The abundance of species associated with vegetation types found mainly in nature reserves (dunes, heathland, and, to a lesser extent, seminatural grassland) increased or remained stable. The decline of widespread species requires additional conservation strategies in the wider landscape.

A global assessment of endemism and species richness across island and mainland regions

Endemism and species richness are highly relevant to the global prioritization of conservation efforts in which oceanic islands have remained relatively neglected. When compared to mainland areas, oceanic islands in general are known for their high percentage of endemic species but only moderate levels of species richness, prompting the question of their relative conservation value. Here we quantify geographic patterns of endemism-scaled richness ("endemism richness") of vascular plants across 90 terrestrial biogeographic regions, including islands, worldwide and evaluate their congruence with terrestrial vertebrates. Endemism richness of plants and vertebrates is strongly related, and values on islands exceed those of mainland regions by a factor of 9.5 and 8.1 for plants and vertebrates, respectively. Comparisons of different measures of past and future human impact and land cover change further reveal marked differences between mainland and island regions. While island and mainland regions suffered equally from past habitat loss, we find the human impact index, a measure of current threat, to be significantly higher on islands. Projected land-cover changes for the year 2100 indicate that land-use-driven changes on islands might strongly increase in the future. Given their conservation risks, smaller land areas, and high levels of endemism richness, islands may offer particularly high returns for species conservation efforts and therefore warrant a high priority in global biodiversity conservation in this century.

Discoveries of new mammal species and their implications for conservation and ecosystem services

In light of recent discoveries of many new species of poorly-studied organisms, we examine the biodiversity of mammals, a well known "charismatic" group. Many assume that nearly all mammal species are known to scientists. We demonstrate that this assumption is incorrect. Since 1993, 408 new mammalian species have been described, approximately 10% of the previously known fauna. Some 60% of these are "cryptic" species, but 40% are large and distinctive. A substantial number persist only in areas undergoing rapid habitat destruction. Our findings suggest global animal and plant species diversity is badly underestimated even in well studied taxa. This implies even greater threats to ecosystem services and human well-being than previously assumed, and an increased need to explore, understand, and conserve Earth's living resources.

Extinction risk escalates in the tropics

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature [1]. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the “tropical biodiversity crisis”, has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists [2], [3], these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves [4]–[7]. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher [8] or lower [9] in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change) are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction) and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction.

The Ecological Performance of Protected Areas

Protected areas are a cornerstone of local, regional, and global strategies for the conservation of biodiversity. However, the ecological performance of these areas, both in terms of the representation and the maintenance of key biodiversity features, remains poorly understood. A large and rapidly expanding literature bears on these issues, but it is highly fragmented, principally comprises particular case studies, and employs a diverse array of approaches. Here we provide a synthetic review of this work, discriminating between issues of performance of inventory and condition at the scale of individual protected areas, portfolios, and networks of protected areas. We emphasize the insights that follow and the links between the different issues, as well as highlight the major problems that remain unresolved.

Extinction vulnerability of tropical montane endemism from warming and upslope displacement: a preliminary appraisal for the highest massif in Madagascar

One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics, because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits, these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However, there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here, we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif), which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar, and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates, these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17–74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period, we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements, based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species, representing five families of reptiles and amphibians, we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19–51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29–114 m; mean upper elevation limit −8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial, but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 °C ‘dangerous’ warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution, but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently, we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages, which should also include, when possible, the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change.

Putting beta-diversity on the map: broad-scale congruence and coincidence in the extremes

Beta-diversity, the change in species composition between places, is a critical but poorly understood component of biological diversity. Patterns of beta-diversity provide information central to many ecological and evolutionary questions, as well as to conservation planning. Yet beta-diversity is rarely studied across large extents, and the degree of similarity of patterns among taxa at such scales remains untested. To our knowledge, this is the first broad-scale analysis of cross-taxon congruence in beta-diversity, and introduces a new method to map beta-diversity continuously across regions. Congruence between amphibian, bird, and mammal beta-diversity in the Western Hemisphere varies with both geographic location and spatial extent. We demonstrate that areas of high beta-diversity for the three taxa largely coincide, but areas of low beta-diversity exhibit little overlap. These findings suggest that similar processes lead to high levels of differentiation in amphibian, bird, and mammal assemblages, while the ecological and biogeographic factors influencing homogeneity in vertebrate assemblages vary. Knowledge of beta-diversity congruence can help formulate hypotheses about the mechanisms governing regional diversity patterns and should inform conservation, especially as threat from global climate change increases.

Beta-diversity—how species composition varies from place to place—is a fundamental attribute of biodiversity. However, despite its recognized importance, beta-diversity is rarely studied across large spatial scales. Here we use a new method to compare amphibian, bird, and mammal beta-diversity across large regions within the Western Hemisphere. We show that although the areas of low beta-diversity are different for the three groups, areas of high beta-diversity largely coincide. Moreover, we find that the degree to which the groups exhibit similar patterns of beta-diversity depends on the geographic location and extent at which it is measured. Beta-diversity is high where species are most susceptible to climate change, such as in areas with complex topography or high environmental variation. Identifying where areas of high beta-diversity coincide for different species groups is essential to the design of effective protected area networks.

A new method to compare amphibian, bird, and mammal beta-diversity within the Western Hemisphere reveals that areas of high beta-diversity coincide, with implications for understanding regional diversity patterns and for conservation.

Contribution of the Natura 2000 network to biodiversity conservation in Italy

The Natura 2000 network is the most important conservation effort being implemented in Europe. Nevertheless, no comprehensive and systematic region-or nationwide evaluation of the effectiveness of the network has been conducted. We used habitat suitability models and extent of occurrence of 468 species of vertebrates to evaluate the contribution of the Natura 2000 network to biodiversity conservation in Italy. We also estimated the population size of 101 species inside the Natura 2000 network to assess its capacity to maintain or improve the population status of listed species. In general the Italian Natura 2000 did not seem to integrate existing protected areas well. The Natura 2000 network increased from 11% to 20% the area devoted to conservation in Italy and the coverage provided to areas with high biodiversity. Nevertheless, some areas with high numbers of species were devoid of conservation areas, and more than 50% of the highly irreplaceable areas were not considered in the system. Moreover, the Natura 2000 network cannot maintain 44-80% (depending on the taxa considered) of the species in a "favorable conservation status" under World Conservation Union Red List criteria. The Natura 2000 network is probably stronger than the results of our analyses suggest. The system is based on a site-specific expert-based strategy and is driven by direct and detailed knowledge of local diversity. Nevertheless, if Natura 2000 is taken to represent the final point of all the EU conservation policies, it will inevitably fail. Its role in conservation could be enhanced by integrating the Natura 2000 system into a more general strategy that considers natural processes and the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying these processes.

Identifying the early genetic consequences of habitat degradation in a highly threatened tropical conifer, Araucaria nemorosa Laubenfels

The early genetic effects of habitat degradation were investigated in the critically endangered conifer Araucaria nemorosa. This species occurs in New Caledonia, a global biodiversity hotspot where the world's greatest concentration of endemic conifer species coincides with an extremely high level of habitat destruction due to fire and mining. Using seven microsatellite loci, estimates were made of genetic marker variation, inbreeding coefficients and population differentiation of adult and seedling cohorts of A. nemorosa. These were contrasted with equivalent estimates, made over similar spatial scales and with the same marker loci, in the locally common and more widespread sister species Araucaria columnaris. There were no significant differences in population genetic parameters between adult populations of the two species, despite their different abundances. However, in A. nemorosa, the juvenile cohort showed a loss of rare alleles and elevated levels of inbreeding when compared to the adult cohort. These genetic differences between the cohorts were not observed in the locally common A. columnaris. This suggests that recent environmental degradation is influencing the genetic structure of A. nemorosa populations. Although this is not detectable among predisturbance adult populations, an early warning of these impacts is evident in more recently established seedling cohorts. The conservation implications of these results are discussed.