201
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Affiliation(s)
- Antoine Flahault
- Centre Virchow-Villermé of Public Health Paris-Berlin, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, 75004 Paris, France; Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
| | - Stefanie Schütte
- Centre Virchow-Villermé of Public Health Paris-Berlin, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, 75004 Paris, France
| | - Jean-François Guégan
- EcoHealth initiative and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR MIVEGEC 5290 IRD-CNRS-Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | | | - Robert Barouki
- INSERM UMR-S 1124, Université Paris Descartes, and Service de Biochimie Métabolomique et Protéomique, Hˆpital Necker Enfants Malades, AP-HP, Paris, France
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202
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Semenza JC. Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:6333-51. [PMID: 26042370 PMCID: PMC4483704 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120606333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2015] [Revised: 05/21/2015] [Accepted: 05/25/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Tomtebodavagen 11A, SE-171 83 Stockholm, Sweden.
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203
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High mean water vapour pressure promotes the transmission of bacillary dysentery. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0124478. [PMID: 25946209 PMCID: PMC4422751 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124478] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2014] [Accepted: 03/09/2015] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Bacillary dysentery is an infectious disease caused by Shigella dysenteriae, which has a seasonal distribution. External environmental factors, including climate, play a significant role in its transmission. This paper identifies climate-related risk factors and their role in bacillary dysentery transmission. Harbin, in northeast China, with a temperate climate, and Quzhou, in southern China, with a subtropical climate, are chosen as the study locations. The least absolute shrinkage and selectionator operator is applied to select relevant climate factors involved in the transmission of bacillary dysentery. Based on the selected relevant climate factors and incidence rates, an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is established successfully as a time series prediction model. The numerical results demonstrate that the mean water vapour pressure over the previous month results in a high relative risk for bacillary dysentery transmission in both cities, and the ARIMA model can successfully perform such a prediction. These results provide better explanations for the relationship between climate factors and bacillary dysentery transmission than those put forth in other studies that use only correlation coefficients or fitting models. The findings in this paper demonstrate that the mean water vapour pressure over the previous month is an important predictor for the transmission of bacillary dysentery.
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204
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Suk JE, Semenza JC. From global to local: vector-borne disease in an interconnected world. Eur J Public Health 2015; 24:531-2. [PMID: 25063828 DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/cku041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan E Suk
- 1 Country Preparedness Support Section, Public Health Capacity and Communication Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, SE-171 83 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jan C Semenza
- 2 Office of the Chief Scientist, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, SE-171 83 Stockholm, Sweden
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205
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Affiliation(s)
- P. Kiely
- Australian Red Cross Blood Service; Melbourne and Perth Australia
| | - C. R. Seed
- Australian Red Cross Blood Service; Melbourne and Perth Australia
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206
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Paz S. Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a global context. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20130561. [PMID: 25688020 PMCID: PMC4342965 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 134] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed virus of the encephalitic flaviviruses, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The transmission cycle exists in rural and urban areas where the virus infects birds, humans, horses and other mammals. Multiple factors impact the transmission and distribution of WNV, related to the dynamics and interactions between pathogen, vector, vertebrate hosts and environment. Hence, among other drivers, weather conditions have direct and indirect influences on vector competence (the ability to acquire, maintain and transmit the virus), on the vector population dynamic and on the virus replication rate within the mosquito, which are mostly weather dependent. The importance of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and winds) as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under conditions of climate change. Indeed, recent changes in climatic conditions, particularly increased ambient temperature and fluctuations in rainfall amounts, contributed to the maintenance (endemization process) of WNV in various locations in southern Europe, western Asia, the eastern Mediterranean, the Canadian Prairies, parts of the USA and Australia. As predictions show that the current trends are expected to continue, for better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should take into consideration the impacts of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shlomit Paz
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Israel
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207
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Guzman Herrador BR, de Blasio BF, MacDonald E, Nichols G, Sudre B, Vold L, Semenza JC, Nygård K. Analytical studies assessing the association between extreme precipitation or temperature and drinking water-related waterborne infections: a review. Environ Health 2015; 14:29. [PMID: 25885050 PMCID: PMC4391583 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-015-0014-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2014] [Accepted: 03/04/2015] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Determining the role of weather in waterborne infections is a priority public health research issue as climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation and temperature events. To document the current knowledge on this topic, we performed a literature review of analytical research studies that have combined epidemiological and meteorological data in order to analyze associations between extreme precipitation or temperature and waterborne disease.A search of the databases Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Web of Science was conducted, using search terms related to waterborne infections and precipitation or temperature. Results were limited to studies published in English between January 2001 and December 2013.Twenty-four articles were included in this review, predominantly from Asia and North-America. Four articles used waterborne outbreaks as study units, while the remaining articles used number of cases of waterborne infections. Results presented in the different articles were heterogeneous. Although most of the studies identified a positive association between increased precipitation or temperature and infection, there were several in which this association was not evidenced. A number of articles also identified an association between decreased precipitation and infections. This highlights the complex relationship between precipitation or temperature driven transmission and waterborne disease. We encourage researchers to conduct studies examining potential effect modifiers, such as the specific type of microorganism, geographical region, season, type of water supply, water source or water treatment, in order to assess how they modulate the relationship between heavy rain events or temperature and waterborne disease. Addressing these gaps is of primary importance in order to identify the areas where action is needed to minimize negative impact of climate change on health in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
- Oslo Centre for Statistics and Epidemiology, Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
| | - Emily MacDonald
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
- European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training (EPIET), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Gordon Nichols
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Gastrointestinal, Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases Department, Public Health England, London, UK.
- Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
- Department of Hygiene & Epidemiology, University of Thessaly, Thessaly, Greece.
| | - Bertrand Sudre
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Line Vold
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
| | - Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Karin Nygård
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
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208
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Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015; 112:3020-5. [PMID: 25713390 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1412887112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.
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209
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210
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211
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Microbial safety considerations of flooding in primary production of leafy greens: A case study. Food Res Int 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.foodres.2014.05.065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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212
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Effect of temperature and relative humidity on the survival of foodborne viruses during food storage. Appl Environ Microbiol 2015; 81:2075-81. [PMID: 25576612 DOI: 10.1128/aem.04093-14] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Millions of people suffer from foodborne diseases throughout the world every year, and the importance of food safety has grown worldwide in recent years. The aim of this study was to investigate the survival of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and viral surrogates of human norovirus (HuNoV) (bacteriophage MS2 and murine norovirus [MNV]) in food over time. HAV, MNV, and MS2 were inoculated onto either the digestive gland of oysters or the surface of fresh peppers, and their survival on these food matrices was measured under various temperature (4°C, 15°C, 25°C, and 40°C) and relative humidity (RH) (50% and 70%) conditions. Inoculated viruses were recovered from food samples and quantified by a plaque assay at predetermined time points over 2 weeks (0, 1, 3, 7, 10, and 14 days). Virus survival was influenced primarily by temperature. On peppers at 40°C and at 50% RH, >4- and 6-log reductions of MNV and HAV, respectively, occurred within 1 day. All three viruses survived better on oysters. In addition, HAV survived better at 70% RH than at 50% RH. The survival data for HAV, MS2, and MNV were fit to three different mathematical models (linear, Weibull, and biphasic models). Among them, the biphasic model was optimum in terms of goodness of fit. The results of this study suggest that major foodborne viruses such as HAV and HuNoV can survive over prolonged periods of time with a limited reduction in numbers. Because a persistence of foodborne virus on contaminated foods was observed, precautionary preventive measures should be performed.
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213
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Massawe LN, Massawe ES, Makinde OD. Temporal Model for Dengue Disease with Treatment. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2015. [DOI: 10.4236/aid.2015.51003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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214
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Nakagawa J, Ehrenberg JP, Nealon J, Fürst T, Aratchige P, Gonzales G, Chanthavisouk C, Hernandez LM, Fengthong T, Utzinger J, Steinmann P. Towards effective prevention and control of helminth neglected tropical diseases in the Western Pacific Region through multi-disease and multi-sectoral interventions. Acta Trop 2015; 141:407-18. [PMID: 23792012 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.05.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2012] [Revised: 04/22/2013] [Accepted: 05/21/2013] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) cause serious health, social and economic burdens in the countries of the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. Among the NTDs, helminth infections are particularly prominent with regard to the number of infected individuals and health impact. Co-endemicity is common among impoverished and marginalized populations. To achieve effective and sustainable control of helminth NTDs, a deeper understanding of the social-ecological systems governing their endemicity and strategies beyond preventive chemotherapy are required to tackle the multiple causes of infection and re-infection. We discuss the feasibility of implementing multi-disease, multi-sectoral intervention packages for helminth NTDs in the Western Pacific Region. After reviewing the main determinants for helminth NTD endemicity and current control strategies, key control activities that involve or concern other programmes within and beyond the health sector are discussed. A considerable number of activities that have an impact on more than one helminth NTD are identified in a variety of sectors, suggesting an untapped potential for synergies. We also highlight the challenges of multi-sectoral collaboration, particularly of involving non-health sectors. We conclude that multi-sectoral collaboration for helminth NTD control is feasible if the target diseases and sectors are carefully selected. To do so, an incentive analysis covering key stakeholders in the sectors is crucial, and the disease-control strategies need to be well understood. The benefits of multi-disease, multi-sectoral approaches could go beyond immediate health impacts by contributing to sustainable development, raising educational attainment, increasing productivity and reducing health inequities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Nakagawa
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Division of Combating Communicable Diseases, P.O. Box 2932, 1000 Manila, Philippines
| | - John P Ehrenberg
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Division of Combating Communicable Diseases, P.O. Box 2932, 1000 Manila, Philippines
| | - Joshua Nealon
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Division of Combating Communicable Diseases, P.O. Box 2932, 1000 Manila, Philippines
| | - Thomas Fürst
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Padmasiri Aratchige
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Division of Combating Communicable Diseases, P.O. Box 2932, 1000 Manila, Philippines
| | - Glenda Gonzales
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Division of Combating Communicable Diseases, P.O. Box 2932, 1000 Manila, Philippines
| | - Chitsavang Chanthavisouk
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Division of Combating Communicable Diseases, P.O. Box 2932, 1000 Manila, Philippines
| | - Leda M Hernandez
- Infectious Disease Office, National Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Department of Health, Sta. Cruz, 1000 Manila, Philippines
| | - Tayphasavanh Fengthong
- Department of Hygiene and Health Promotion, Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 1232, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
| | - Jürg Utzinger
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Peter Steinmann
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland.
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215
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Roda Gracia J, Schumann B, Seidler A. Climate Variability and the Occurrence of Human Puumala Hantavirus Infections in Europe: A Systematic Review. Zoonoses Public Health 2014; 62:465-78. [PMID: 25557350 DOI: 10.1111/zph.12175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2014] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Hantaviruses are distributed worldwide and are transmitted by rodents. In Europe, the infection usually manifests as a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) known as nephropathia epidemica (NE), which is triggered by the virus species Puumala. Its host is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In the context of climate change, interest in the role of climatic factors for the disease has increased. A systematic review was conducted to investigate the association between climate variability and the occurrence of human Puumala hantavirus infections in Europe. We performed a literature search in the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science. Studies that investigated Puumala virus infection and climatic factors in any European country with a minimum collection period of 2 years were included. The selection of abstracts and the evaluation of included studies were performed by two independent reviewers. A total of 434 titles were identified in the databases, of which nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies were conducted in central Europe (Belgium, France and Germany), while only two came from the north (Sweden) and one from the south (Bosnia). Strong evidence was found for a positive association between temperature and NE incidence in central Europe, while the evidence for northern Europe so far appears insufficient. Results regarding precipitation were contradictory. Overall, the complex relationships between climate and hantavirus infections need further exploration to identify specific health risks and initiate appropriate intervention measures in the context of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Roda Gracia
- Institute and Policlinic of Occupational and Social Medicine (IPAS), TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - B Schumann
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.,Centre for Population Studies, Ageing and Living Conditions Programme, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - A Seidler
- Institute and Policlinic of Occupational and Social Medicine (IPAS), TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany
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216
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Rizzoli A, Silaghi C, Obiegala A, Rudolf I, Hubálek Z, Földvári G, Plantard O, Vayssier-Taussat M, Bonnet S, Spitalská E, Kazimírová M. Ixodes ricinus and Its Transmitted Pathogens in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas in Europe: New Hazards and Relevance for Public Health. Front Public Health 2014; 2:251. [PMID: 25520947 PMCID: PMC4248671 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2014.00251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 285] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2014] [Accepted: 11/09/2014] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Tick-borne diseases represent major public and animal health issues worldwide. Ixodes ricinus, primarily associated with deciduous and mixed forests, is the principal vector of causative agents of viral, bacterial, and protozoan zoonotic diseases in Europe. Recently, abundant tick populations have been observed in European urban green areas, which are of public health relevance due to the exposure of humans and domesticated animals to potentially infected ticks. In urban habitats, small and medium-sized mammals, birds, companion animals (dogs and cats), and larger mammals (roe deer and wild boar) play a role in maintenance of tick populations and as reservoirs of tick-borne pathogens. Presence of ticks infected with tick-borne encephalitis virus and high prevalence of ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., causing Lyme borreliosis, have been reported from urbanized areas in Europe. Emerging pathogens, including bacteria of the order Rickettsiales (Anaplasma phagocytophilum, "Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis," Rickettsia helvetica, and R. monacensis), Borrelia miyamotoi, and protozoans (Babesia divergens, B. venatorum, and B. microti) have also been detected in urban tick populations. Understanding the ecology of ticks and their associations with hosts in a European urbanized environment is crucial to quantify parameters necessary for risk pre-assessment and identification of public health strategies for control and prevention of tick-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annapaola Rizzoli
- Fondazione Edmund Mach, Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all'Adige , Trento , Italy
| | - Cornelia Silaghi
- Comparative Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität , Munich , Germany ; Vetsuisse-Faculty, Swiss National Centre for Vector Entomology, Institute for Parasitology, University of Zurich , Zürich , Switzerland
| | - Anna Obiegala
- Comparative Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität , Munich , Germany ; Institute of Animal Hygiene and Veterinary Public Health, University of Leipzig , Leipzig , Germany
| | - Ivo Rudolf
- Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v.v.i. , Brno , Czech Republic
| | - Zdeněk Hubálek
- Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v.v.i. , Brno , Czech Republic
| | - Gábor Földvári
- Department of Parasitology and Zoology, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Szent István University , Budapest , Hungary
| | - Olivier Plantard
- INRA, UMR1300 BioEpAR , Nantes , France ; LUNAM Université, Oniris, Ecole nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique, UMR BioEpAR , Nantes , France
| | - Muriel Vayssier-Taussat
- USC BIPAR, INRA, ANSES - French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety , Maisons-Alfort , France
| | - Sarah Bonnet
- USC BIPAR, INRA, ANSES - French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety , Maisons-Alfort , France
| | - Eva Spitalská
- Institute of Virology, Slovak Academy of Sciences , Bratislava , Slovakia
| | - Mária Kazimírová
- Institute of Zoology, Slovak Academy of Sciences , Bratislava , Slovakia
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217
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Monzote L, Piñón A, Setzer WN. Antileishmanial Potential of Tropical Rainforest Plant Extracts. MEDICINES (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2014; 1:32-55. [PMID: 28933376 PMCID: PMC5532977 DOI: 10.3390/medicines1010032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2014] [Revised: 11/11/2014] [Accepted: 11/12/2014] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
A total of 115 different plant extracts from our collection, representing 96 plant species, have been evaluated for in vitro antileishmanial activity against L. amazonensis promastigotes. In addition, the extracts were screened for cytotoxic activity against BALB/c mouse macrophages in order to assess a selectivity index. Crude extracts that showed a selectivity index (CC50 for macrophage / IC50 for promastigotes) ³ 5 or with IC50 < 12.5 μg/mL against promastigotes, a total of 28 extracts, were further screened for anti-amastigote activity. A total of 25 extracts showed promising activity against L. amazonensis promastigotes with low cytotoxic activity. Ten of these extracts showed selectivity indices, (CC50 for macrophages / IC50 for amastigotes) greater than 10 and are considered "hits", worthy candidates for further phytochemical exploration: Conostegia xalapensis methanol bark extract, Endiandra palmerstonii bark extract, Eugenia monteverdensis acetone bark extract, Eugenia sp. "fine leaf" acetone bark extract, Exothea paniculata chloroform bark extract, Mallotus paniculatus ethanol bark extract, Matelea pseudobarbata ethanol extract, Quercus insignis ethanol bark extract, Sassafras albidum dichloromethane bark extract, and Stemmadenia donnell-smithii acetone bark extract.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lianet Monzote
- Parasitology Department, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Pedro Kouri", 10400 Havana, Cuba.
| | - Abel Piñón
- Parasitology Department, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Pedro Kouri", 10400 Havana, Cuba.
| | - William N Setzer
- Department of Chemistry, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899, USA.
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218
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A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Climatic Drivers of Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe. CLIMATE 2014. [DOI: 10.3390/cli2040310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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219
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Christiansen-Jucht C, Parham PE, Saddler A, Koella JC, Basáñez MG. Temperature during larval development and adult maintenance influences the survival of Anopheles gambiae s.s. Parasit Vectors 2014; 7:489. [PMID: 25367091 PMCID: PMC4236470 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-014-0489-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2014] [Accepted: 10/13/2014] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Malaria transmission depends on vector life-history parameters and population dynamics, and particularly on the survival of adult Anopheles mosquitoes. These dynamics are sensitive to climatic and environmental factors, and temperature is a particularly important driver. Data currently exist on the influence of constant and fluctuating adult environmental temperature on adult Anopheles gambiae s.s. survival and on the effect of larval environmental temperature on larval survival, but none on how larval temperature affects adult life-history parameters. METHODS Mosquito larvae and pupae were reared individually at different temperatures (23 ± 1°C, 27 ± 1°C, 31 ± 1°C, and 35 ± 1°C), 75 ± 5% relative humidity. Upon emergence into imagoes, individual adult females were either left at their larval temperature or placed at a different temperature within the range above. Survival was monitored every 24 hours and data were analysed using non-parametric and parametric methods. The Gompertz distribution fitted the survivorship data better than the gamma, Weibull, and exponential distributions overall and was adopted to describe mosquito mortality rates. RESULTS Increasing environmental temperature during the larval stages decreased larval survival (p < 0.001). Increases of 4°C (from 23°C to 27°C, 27°C to 31°C, and 31°C to 35°C), 8°C (27°C to 35°C) and 12°C (23°C to 35°C) statistically significantly increased larval mortality (p < 0.001). Higher environmental temperature during the adult stages significantly lowered adult survival overall (p < 0.001), with increases of 4°C and 8°C significantly influencing survival (p < 0.001). Increasing the larval environment temperature also significantly increased adult mortality overall (p < 0.001): a 4°C increase (23°C to 27°C) did not significantly affect adult survival (p > 0.05), but an 8°C increase did (p < 0.05). The effect of a 4°C increase in larval temperature from 27°C to 31°C depended on the adult environmental temperature. The data also suggest that differences between the temperatures of the larval and adult environments affects adult mosquito survival. CONCLUSIONS Environmental temperature affects Anopheles survival directly during the juvenile and adult stages, and indirectly, since temperature during larval development significantly influences adult survival. These results will help to parameterise more reliable mathematical models investigating the potential impact of temperature and global warming on malaria transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Céline Christiansen-Jucht
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine (St Mary's campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.
| | - Paul E Parham
- Department of Public Health and Policy, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GL, UK. .,Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St. Mary's campus, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.
| | - Adam Saddler
- Division of Biology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, SL5 2PZ, Berkshire, UK.
| | - Jacob C Koella
- Division of Biology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, SL5 2PZ, Berkshire, UK. .,Present address : Faculté des Sciences, Institut de Biologie, Université de Neuchâtel, Rue Emile-Argand 11, CH-2000, Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
| | - María-Gloria Basáñez
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine (St Mary's campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.
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Vynograd N. Natural foci diseases as a stable biological threat. Arch Immunol Ther Exp (Warsz) 2014; 62:445-7. [PMID: 25326726 PMCID: PMC7079743 DOI: 10.1007/s00005-014-0316-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2014] [Accepted: 10/10/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
The key aspects of the natural foci of especially dangerous diseases as a type of biological threats are presented. Approaches to epidemiological surveillance and control to the spread of the agents of especially dangerous diseases on endemic areas are described for zoonosis that has a medical value. The knowledge of specific design of tools for the implementation of epidemiological surveillance, monitoring and evaluation of natural foci diseases in developing countries is low; accordingly, little is known on the ecology and transmission dynamics for the agents of especially dangerous diseases. Important is to know the effectiveness of serological monitoring of the indigenous population to determine the activity of natural foci of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, tick-borne encephalitis, tularemia, Q-fever, Lyme disease and West Nile disease. The main species of reservoirs and vectors for these agents have been determined in different regions of Ukraine. New tick-borne agents that were unknown for certain regions have been detected. These data indicate the spreading of different pathogens in combination with natural foci.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nataliya Vynograd
- Department of Epidemiology, Lviv National Medical University, L'viv, Ukraine,
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221
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Suk JE, Van Cangh T, Beauté J, Bartels C, Tsolova S, Pharris A, Ciotti M, Semenza JC. The interconnected and cross-border nature of risks posed by infectious diseases. Glob Health Action 2014; 7:25287. [PMID: 25308818 PMCID: PMC4195207 DOI: 10.3402/gha.v7.25287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2014] [Revised: 09/16/2014] [Accepted: 09/16/2014] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Infectious diseases can constitute public health emergencies of international concern when a pathogen arises, acquires new characteristics, or is deliberately released, leading to the potential for loss of human lives as well as societal disruption. A wide range of risk drivers are now known to lead to and/or exacerbate the emergence and spread of infectious disease, including global trade and travel, the overuse of antibiotics, intensive agriculture, climate change, high population densities, and inadequate infrastructures, such as water treatment facilities. Where multiple risk drivers interact, the potential impact of a disease outbreak is amplified. The varying temporal and geographic frequency with which infectious disease events occur adds yet another layer of complexity to the issue. Mitigating the emergence and spread of infectious disease necessitates mapping and prioritising the interdependencies between public health and other sectors. Conversely, during an international public health emergency, significant disruption occurs not only to healthcare systems but also to a potentially wide range of sectors, including trade, tourism, energy, civil protection, transport, agriculture, and so on. At the same time, dealing with a disease outbreak may require a range of critical sectors for support. There is a need to move beyond narrow models of risk to better account for the interdependencies between health and other sectors so as to be able to better mitigate and respond to the risks posed by emerging infectious disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan E Suk
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden; Global Public Health Unit, School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK;
| | - Thomas Van Cangh
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Julien Beauté
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Cornelius Bartels
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Svetla Tsolova
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Anastasia Pharris
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Massimo Ciotti
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
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222
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Parkinson AJ, Evengard B, Semenza JC, Ogden N, Børresen ML, Berner J, Brubaker M, Sjöstedt A, Evander M, Hondula DM, Menne B, Pshenichnaya N, Gounder P, Larose T, Revich B, Hueffer K, Albihn A. Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group. Int J Circumpolar Health 2014; 73:25163. [PMID: 25317383 PMCID: PMC4185088 DOI: 10.3402/ijch.v73.25163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2014] [Revised: 08/06/2014] [Accepted: 08/18/2014] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alan J. Parkinson
- Arctic Investigations Program, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - Birgitta Evengard
- Arctic Research Centre (ARCUM), Umea University, Umeå, Sweden
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Umea University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jan C. Semenza
- Office of the Chief Scientist, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Nicholas Ogden
- Zoonoses Division Centre for Food-borne, Environmental & Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada
| | - Malene L. Børresen
- Department of Epidemiology Research, Staten Serum Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jim Berner
- Division of Community Health Services, Alaska Native Health Consortium, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - Michael Brubaker
- Division of Community Health Services, Alaska Native Health Consortium, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - Anders Sjöstedt
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Bacteriology, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | - Magnus Evander
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Virology, Umeå University, Umea, Sweden
| | - David M. Hondula
- School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Bettina Menne
- Global Change and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome, Italy
| | - Natalia Pshenichnaya
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology, Rostov State Medical University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
| | - Prabhu Gounder
- Arctic Investigations Program, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - Tricia Larose
- Department of Public Health and General Practice, Faculty of Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Boris Revich
- Institute of Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
| | - Karsten Hueffer
- Department of Biology & Wildlife, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
| | - Ann Albihn
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Veterinarian Public Health, University of Agricultural Sciences and National Veterinary Institute, Uppsala, Sweden
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223
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Boeckmann M, Joyner TA. Old health risks in new places? An ecological niche model for I. ricinus tick distribution in Europe under a changing climate. Health Place 2014; 30:70-7. [PMID: 25216209 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2014.08.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2014] [Revised: 06/30/2014] [Accepted: 08/16/2014] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Climate change will likely have impacts on disease vector distribution. Posing a significant health threat in the 21st century, risk of tick-borne diseases may increase with higher annual mean temperatures and changes in precipitation. We modeled the current and future potential distribution of the Ixodes ricinus tick species in Europe. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) was utilized to predict potential distributions of I. ricinus based on current (1990-2010 averages) and future (2040-2060 averages) environmental variables. A ten model best subset was created out of a possible 200 models based on omission and commission criteria. Our results show that under the A2 climate change scenario the potential habitat range for the I. ricinus tick in Europe will expand into higher elevations and latitudes (e.g., Scandinavia, the Baltics, and Belarus), while contracting in other areas (e.g., Alps, Pyrenees, interior Italy, and northwestern Poland). Overall, a potential habitat expansion of 3.8% in all of Europe is possible. Our results may be used to inform climate change adaptation efforts in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melanie Boeckmann
- Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology - BIPS, Department Prevention and Evaluation, Bremen, Germany; Center for Social Policy Research, University of Bremen, Germany.
| | - T Andrew Joyner
- 308 Ross Hall, East Tennessee State University, Department of Geosciences, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA.
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224
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Verschave SH, Vercruysse J, Claerebout E, Rose H, Morgan ER, Charlier J. The parasitic phase of Ostertagia ostertagi: quantification of the main life history traits through systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Parasitol 2014; 44:1091-104. [PMID: 25229178 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpara.2014.08.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2014] [Revised: 08/20/2014] [Accepted: 08/21/2014] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
Predictive models of parasite life cycles increase our understanding of how parasite epidemiology is influenced by global changes and can be used to support decisions for more targeted worm control. Estimates of parasite population dynamics are needed to parameterize such models. The aim of this study was to quantify the main life history traits of Ostertagia ostertagi, economically the most important nematode of cattle in temperate regions. The main parameters determining parasite density during the parasitic phase of O. ostertagi are (i) the larval establishment rate, (ii) hypobiosis rate, (iii) adult mortality and (iv) female fecundity (number of eggs laid per day per female). A systematic review was performed covering studies from 1962 to 2007, in which helminth-naïve calves were artificially infected with O. ostertagi. The database was further extended with results of unpublished trials conducted at the Laboratory for Parasitology of Ghent University, Belgium. Overall inverse variance weighted estimates were computed for each of the traits through random effects models. An average establishment rate (±S.E.) of 0.269±0.022 was calculated based on data of 27 studies (46 experiments). The establishment rate declined when infection dose increased and was lower in younger animals. An average proportion of larvae entering hypobiosis (±S.E.) of 0.041 (±0.009) was calculated based on 27 studies (54 experiments). The proportion of ingested larvae that went into hypobiosis was higher in animals that received concomitant infections with nematode species other than O. ostertagi (mixed infections). An average daily adult mortality (±S.E.) of 0.028 (±0.002) was computed based on data from 28 studies (70 experiments). Adult mortality was positively correlated with infection dose. A daily fecundity (±S.E.) of 284 (±45) eggs per female was found based on nine studies (10 experiments). The average female sex ratio of O. ostertagi based on individual animal data (n=75) from six different studies was estimated to be 0.55. We believe that this systematic review is the first to summarise the available data on the main life history traits of the parasitic phase of O. ostertagi. In conclusion, this meta-analysis provides novel estimates for the parameterization of life cycle-based transmission models, explicitly reports measures of variance around these estimates, gives evidence for density dependence of larval establishment and adult mortality, shows that host age affects larval establishment and, to our knowledge, provides the first evidence for O. ostertagi of a female-biased sex ratio.
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Affiliation(s)
- S H Verschave
- Department of Virology, Parasitology and Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, 9820 Merelbeke, Belgium.
| | - J Vercruysse
- Department of Virology, Parasitology and Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, 9820 Merelbeke, Belgium
| | - E Claerebout
- Department of Virology, Parasitology and Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, 9820 Merelbeke, Belgium
| | - H Rose
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Woodland Road, Bristol BS8 1UG, United Kingdom; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Cantocks Close, Bristol BS8 1TS, United Kingdom
| | - E R Morgan
- Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Cantocks Close, Bristol BS8 1TS, United Kingdom; School of Veterinary Sciences, University of Bristol, Langford House, Langford, Bristol BS40 5DU, United Kingdom
| | - J Charlier
- Department of Virology, Parasitology and Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, Salisburylaan 133, 9820 Merelbeke, Belgium
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225
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Schaffner F, Mathis A. Dengue and dengue vectors in the WHO European region: past, present, and scenarios for the future. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2014; 14:1271-80. [PMID: 25172160 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(14)70834-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 157] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
After 55 years of absence, dengue has re-emerged in the WHO European region both as locally transmitted sporadic cases and as an outbreak in Madeira, driven by the introduction of people infected with the virus and the invasion of the vector mosquito species Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Models predict a further spread of A albopictus, particularly under climate change conditions. Dengue transmission models suggest a low risk in Europe, but these models too rarely include transmission by A albopictus (the main established vector). Further information gaps exist with regard to the Caucasus and central Asian countries of the WHO European region. Many European countries have implemented surveillance and control measures for invasive mosquitoes, but only a few include surveillance for dengue. As long as no dengue-specific prophylaxis or therapeutics are available, integrated vector management is the most sustainable control option. The rapid elimination of newly introduced A aegypti populations should be targeted in the European region, particularly in southern Europe and the Caucasus, where the species was present for decades until the 1950s.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francis Schaffner
- Institute of Parasitology, Swiss National Centre for Vector Entomology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Alexander Mathis
- Institute of Parasitology, Swiss National Centre for Vector Entomology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
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226
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Bouzid M, Colón-González FJ, Lung T, Lake IR, Hunter PR. Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever. BMC Public Health 2014; 14:781. [PMID: 25149418 PMCID: PMC4143568 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-781] [Citation(s) in RCA: 95] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2014] [Accepted: 07/24/2014] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. METHODS We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. RESULTS The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. CONCLUSIONS This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maha Bouzid
- />Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Felipe J Colón-González
- />School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
- />The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics Section, Trieste, Italy
| | - Tobias Lung
- />Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
- />European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Iain R Lake
- />School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Paul R Hunter
- />Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
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227
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Climate change and human health. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2014; 11:7347-53. [PMID: 25046633 PMCID: PMC4113880 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110707347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2014] [Accepted: 07/09/2014] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
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228
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Yu W, Mengersen K, Dale P, Mackenzie JS, Toloo G(S, Wang X, Tong S. Epidemiologic patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2014; 91:109-118. [PMID: 24799374 PMCID: PMC4080548 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2013] [Accepted: 01/08/2014] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease that has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity, and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiologic patterns of RRV disease in Queensland, Australia, during January 2001-December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatio-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex, and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 persons, with a male:female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland, and the southeast areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on high-risk regions, particularly during summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiwei Yu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation; Disciplines of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; Environmental Futures Centre, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia; Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia; School of Chemistry and Molecular Biosciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Regional warming and emerging vector-borne zoonotic dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and projection by 2030. BIOMED RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2014; 2014:858936. [PMID: 25045709 PMCID: PMC4090463 DOI: 10.1155/2014/858936] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2014] [Accepted: 05/23/2014] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
We analyze through a climatic model the influence of regional warming on the geographical spreading and potential risk of infection of human dirofilariosis in Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and estimate the situation by 2030. The model correctly predicts the spatiotemporal location of 97.10% of 2154 clinical cases reported in the area during the studied period, identified by a retrospective review of the literature. There exists also a significant correlation between annual predicted Dirofilaria generations and calculated morbidity. The model states the progressive increase of 14.8% in the potential transmission area, up to latitude 64°N, and 14.7% in population exposure. By 2030 an increase of 18.5% in transmission area and 10.8% in population exposure is expected. These findings strongly suggest the influence of global warming in both geographical spreading and increase in the number of Dirofilaria generations. The results should alert about the epidemiological behavior of dirofilariosis and other mosquito-borne diseases in these and other countries with similar climatic characteristics.
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231
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Kendrovski V, Spasenovska M, Menne B. The public health impacts of climate change in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2014; 11:5975-88. [PMID: 24905243 PMCID: PMC4078559 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110605975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2014] [Revised: 04/30/2014] [Accepted: 04/30/2014] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Projected climatic changes for the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia for the period 2025-2100 will be most intense in the warmest period of the year with more frequent and more intense heat-waves, droughts and flood events compared with the period 1961-1990. The country has examined their vulnerabilities to climate change and many public health impacts have been projected. A variety of qualitative and quantitative methodologies were used in the assessment: literature reviews, interviews, focus groups, time series and regression analysis, damage and adaptation cost estimation, and scenario-based assessment. Policies and interventions to minimize the risks and development of long-term adaptation strategies have been explored. The generation of a robust evidence base and the development of stakeholder engagement have been used to support the development of an adaptation strategy and to promote adaptive capacity by improving the resilience of public health systems to climate change. Climate change adaptation has been established as a priority within existing national policy instruments. The lessons learnt from the process are applicable to countries considering how best to improve adaptive capacity and resilience of health systems to climate variability and its associated impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vladimir Kendrovski
- WHO Regional Office for Europe, WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, Bonn 53113, Germany.
| | - Margarita Spasenovska
- WHO Regional Office for Europe, WHO Country Office, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Drezdenska 22, Skopje 1000, Macedonia.
| | - Bettina Menne
- WHO Regional Office for Europe, WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, Bonn 53113, Germany.
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232
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Wu J, Wang DD, Li XL, de Vlas SJ, Yu YQ, Zhu J, Zhang Y, Wang B, Yan L, Fang LQ, Liu YW, Cao WC. Increasing incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome could be associated with livestock husbandry in Changchun, northeastern China. BMC Infect Dis 2014; 14:301. [PMID: 24894341 PMCID: PMC4050097 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-14-301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2013] [Accepted: 05/29/2014] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Since the end of the 1990s, the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) has been increasing dramatically in Changchun, northeastern China. However, it is unknown which, and how, underlying risk factors have been involved in the reemergence of the disease. METHODS Data on HFRS cases at the county scale were collected from 1998 to 2012. Data on livestock husbandry including the numbers of large animals (cattle, horses, donkeys and mules), sheep, and deer, and on climatic and land cover variables were also collected. Epidemiological features, including the spatial, temporal and human patterns of disease were characterized. The potential factors related to spatial heterogeneity and temporal trends were analyzed using standard and time-series Poisson regression analysis, respectively. RESULTS Annual incidence varied among the 10 counties. Shuangyang County in southeastern Changchun had the highest number of cases (1,525 cases; 35.9% of all cases), but its population only accounted for 5.6% of the total population. Based on seasonal pattern in HFRS incidence, two epidemic phases were identified. One was a single epidemic peak at the end of each year from 1988 to 1997 and the other consisted of dual epidemic peaks at both the end and the beginning of each year from 1998 to the end of the study period. HFRS incidence was higher in males compared to females, and most of the HFRS cases occurred in peasant populations. The results of the Poisson regression analysis indicated that the spatial distribution and the increasing incidence of HFRS were significantly associated with livestock husbandry and climate factors, particularly with deer cultivation. CONCLUSIONS Our results indicate that the re-emergence of HFRS in Changchun has been accompanied by changing seasonal patterns over the past 25 years. Integrated measures focusing on areas related to local livestock husbandry could be helpful for the prevention and control of HFRS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Jilin University, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
- Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
| | - Dan-Dan Wang
- School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, People’s Republic of China
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogens and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xin-Lou Li
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogens and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Sake J de Vlas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ya-Qin Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Jilin University, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jian Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Jilin University, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ying Zhang
- Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
| | - Bo Wang
- Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
| | - Li Yan
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Jilin University, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
- Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
| | - Li-Qun Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogens and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ya-Wen Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Jilin University, Changchun, People’s Republic of China
| | - Wu-Chun Cao
- School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, People’s Republic of China
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogens and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
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233
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Ebi KL, Rocklöv J. Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses. Glob Health Action 2014; 7:24154. [PMID: 24861341 PMCID: PMC4033322 DOI: 10.3402/gha.v7.24154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2014] [Revised: 04/28/2014] [Accepted: 04/29/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome ('horses for courses'). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristie L Ebi
- Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden;
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
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Correlating Remote Sensing Data with the Abundance of Pupae of the Dengue Virus Mosquito Vector, Aedes aegypti, in Central Mexico. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2014. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi3020732] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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235
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Petrić D, Bellini R, Scholte EJ, Rakotoarivony LM, Schaffner F. Monitoring population and environmental parameters of invasive mosquito species in Europe. Parasit Vectors 2014; 7:187. [PMID: 24739334 PMCID: PMC4005621 DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-7-187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2013] [Accepted: 04/11/2014] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
To enable a better understanding of the overwhelming alterations in the invasive mosquito species (IMS), methodical insight into the population and environmental factors that govern the IMS and pathogen adaptations are essential. There are numerous ways of estimating mosquito populations, and usually these describe developmental and life-history parameters. The key population parameters that should be considered during the surveillance of invasive mosquito species are: (1) population size and dynamics during the season, (2) longevity, (3) biting behaviour, and (4) dispersal capacity. Knowledge of these parameters coupled with vector competence may help to determine the vectorial capacity of IMS and basic disease reproduction number (R0) to support mosquito borne disease (MBD) risk assessment. Similarly, environmental factors include availability and type of larval breeding containers, climate change, environmental change, human population density, increased human travel and goods transport, changes in living, agricultural and farming habits (e.g. land use), and reduction of resources in the life cycle of mosquitoes by interventions (e.g. source reduction of aquatic habitats). Human population distributions, urbanisation, and human population movement are the key behavioural factors in most IMS-transmitted diseases. Anthropogenic issues are related to the global spread of MBD such as the introduction, reintroduction, circulation of IMS and increased exposure to humans from infected mosquito bites. This review addresses the population and environmental factors underlying the growing changes in IMS populations in Europe and confers the parameters selected by criteria of their applicability. In addition, overview of the commonly used and newly developed tools for their monitoring is provided.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dušan Petrić
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Laboratory for Medical Entomology, Trg D. Obradovića 8, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Romeo Bellini
- Centro Agricoltura Ambiente "G. Nicoli", Via Argini Nord 3351, 40014 Crevalcore, Italy
| | - Ernst-Jan Scholte
- National Centre for Monitoring of Vectors, Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA), Geertjesweg 15, P.O. Box 9102, 6700, HC, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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236
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European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2014; 11:3894-936. [PMID: 24722542 PMCID: PMC4025019 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110403894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2013] [Revised: 03/25/2014] [Accepted: 03/28/2014] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.
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237
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Xu L, Stige LC, Kausrud KL, Ben Ari T, Wang S, Fang X, Schmid BV, Liu Q, Stenseth NC, Zhang Z. Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague. Proc Biol Sci 2014; 281:20133159. [PMID: 24523275 PMCID: PMC4027397 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.3159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2013] [Accepted: 01/21/2014] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Leif Chr. Stige
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Kyrre Linné Kausrud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Tamara Ben Ari
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Shuchun Wang
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic ofChina
| | - Xiye Fang
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic ofChina
| | - Boris V. Schmid
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic ofChina
| | - Nils Chr. Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo 0316, Norway
| | - Zhibin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China
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238
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Semenza JC, Zeller H. Integrated surveillance for prevention and control of emerging vector-borne diseases in Europe. Euro Surveill 2014; 19. [DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.13.20757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- J C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - H Zeller
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
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239
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Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus: methodological challenges and research needs. Epidemiol Infect 2014; 142:2013-23. [PMID: 24612684 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268814000399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.
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240
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Brestovac B, Halicki LA, Harris RP, Sampson I, Speers DJ, Mamotte C, Williams D. Primary acute dengue and the deletion in chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5Δ32). Microbes Infect 2014; 16:518-21. [PMID: 24607451 DOI: 10.1016/j.micinf.2014.02.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2013] [Revised: 02/07/2014] [Accepted: 02/21/2014] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Abstract
Dengue virus is a significant arboviral pathogen that is continuing to spread due to human travel and invasion of the mosquito vectors into new regions. Chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) has a truncated 32 base pair deletion form (CCR5Δ32), which has been associated with resistance to HIV but increased severity in some flaviviral diseases. If CCR5Δ32 is associated with dengue, European carriers of this mutation may be at increased risk. In a Western Australian population with the same frequency of CCR5Δ32 (0.08) as that found in southern Europe there was no significant difference in CCR5Δ32 allele frequency between returned travellers with and without dengue (p = 0.82, OR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.35-2.1).
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian Brestovac
- School of Biomedical Sciences, CHIRI Biosciences Research Precinct, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Western Australia 6845, Australia.
| | - Larissa A Halicki
- School of Biomedical Sciences, CHIRI Biosciences Research Precinct, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Western Australia 6845, Australia
| | - Ryan P Harris
- School of Biomedical Sciences, CHIRI Biosciences Research Precinct, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Western Australia 6845, Australia
| | - Ian Sampson
- Department of Microbiology, Pathwest Laboratory Medicine WA, Queen Elizabeth II Medical Centre, Nedlands, Western Australia 6009, Australia
| | - David J Speers
- Department of Microbiology, Pathwest Laboratory Medicine WA, Queen Elizabeth II Medical Centre, Nedlands, Western Australia 6009, Australia; School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia
| | - Cyril Mamotte
- School of Biomedical Sciences, CHIRI Biosciences Research Precinct, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Western Australia 6845, Australia
| | - David Williams
- School of Biomedical Sciences, CHIRI Biosciences Research Precinct, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Western Australia 6845, Australia; Department of Microbiology, Pathwest Laboratory Medicine WA, Queen Elizabeth II Medical Centre, Nedlands, Western Australia 6009, Australia
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241
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Scientific Opinion on the risk posed by pathogens in food of non‐animal origin. Part 2 (Salmonella and Norovirus in leafy greens eaten raw as salads). EFSA J 2014. [DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2014.3600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
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242
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Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2014; 11:2218-35. [PMID: 24566049 PMCID: PMC3945594 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110202218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2013] [Revised: 01/26/2014] [Accepted: 02/10/2014] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.
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243
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Piroplasmosis in wildlife: Babesia and Theileria affecting free-ranging ungulates and carnivores in the Italian Alps. Parasit Vectors 2014; 7:70. [PMID: 24533742 PMCID: PMC3929754 DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-7-70] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2013] [Accepted: 01/29/2014] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Piroplasmosis are among the most relevant diseases of domestic animals. Babesia is emerging as cause of tick-borne zoonosis worldwide and free-living animals are reservoir hosts of several zoonotic Babesia species. We investigated the epidemiology of Babesia spp. and Theileria spp. in wild ungulates and carnivores from Northern Italy to determine which of these apicomplexan species circulate in wildlife and their prevalence of infection. METHODS PCR amplification of the V4 hyper-variable region of the 18S rDNA of Babesia sp./Theileria sp was carried out on spleen samples of 1036 wild animals: Roe deer Capreolus capreolus (n = 462), Red deer Cervus elaphus (n = 52), Alpine Chamois Rupicapra rupicapra (n = 36), Fallow deer Dama dama (n = 17), Wild boar Sus scrofa (n = 257), Red fox Vulpes vulpes (n = 205) and Wolf Canis lupus (n = 7). Selected positive samples were sequenced to determine the species of amplified Babesia/Theileria DNA. RESULTS Babesia/Theileria DNA was found with a mean prevalence of 9.94% (IC95% 8.27-11.91). The only piroplasms found in carnivores was Theileria annae, which was detected in two foxes (0.98%; IC95% 0.27-3.49). Red deer showed the highest prevalence of infection (44.23%; IC95% 31.6-57.66), followed by Alpine chamois (22.22%; IC95% 11.71-38.08), Roe deer (12.55%; IC95% 9.84-15.89), and Wild boar (4.67%; IC95% 2.69-7.98). Genetic analysis identified Babesia capreoli as the most prevalent piroplasmid found in Alpine chamois, Roe deer and Red deer, followed by Babesia bigemina (found in Roe deer, Red deer and Wild boar), and the zoonotic Babesia venatorum (formerly Babesia sp. EU1) isolated from 2 Roe deer. Piroplasmids of the genus Theileria were identified in Wild boar and Red deer. CONCLUSIONS The present study offers novel insights into the role of wildlife in Babesia/Theileria epidemiology, as well as relevant information on genetic variability of piroplasmids infecting wild ungulates and carnivores.
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244
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Calderaro A, Gorrini C, Piccolo G, Montecchini S, Buttrini M, Rossi S, Piergianni M, Arcangeletti MC, De Conto F, Chezzi C, Medici MC. Identification of Borrelia species after creation of an in-house MALDI-TOF MS database. PLoS One 2014; 9:e88895. [PMID: 24533160 PMCID: PMC3923052 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0088895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2013] [Accepted: 01/13/2014] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Lyme borreliosis (LB) is a multisystemic disease caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (sl) complex transmitted to humans by Ixodes ticks. B. burgdorferi sl complex, currently comprising at least 19 genospecies, includes the main pathogenic species responsible for human disease in Europe: B. burgdorferi sensu stricto (ss), B. afzelii, and B. garinii. In this study, for the first time, MALDI-TOF MS was applied to Borrelia spp., supplementing the existing database, limited to the species B. burgdorferi ss, B.spielmanii and B. garinii, with the species B. afzelii, in order to enable the identification of all the species potentially implicated in LB in Europe. Moreover, we supplemented the database also with B. hermsii, which is the primary cause of tick-borne relapsing fever in western North America, B. japonica, circulating in Asia, and another reference strain of B. burgdorferi ss (B31 strain). The dendrogram obtained by analyzing the protein profiles of the different Borrelia species reflected Borrelia taxonomy, showing that all the species included in the Borrelia sl complex clustered in a unique branch, while Borrelia hermsii clustered separately. In conclusion, in this study MALDI-TOF MS proved a useful tool suitable for identification of Borrelia spp. both for diagnostic purpose and epidemiological surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adriana Calderaro
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
- * E-mail:
| | - Chiara Gorrini
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Giovanna Piccolo
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Sara Montecchini
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Mirko Buttrini
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Sabina Rossi
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Maddalena Piergianni
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Maria Cristina Arcangeletti
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Flora De Conto
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Carlo Chezzi
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Maria Cristina Medici
- Unit of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
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245
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van Els C, Mjaaland S, Næss L, Sarkadi J, Gonczol E, Smith Korsholm K, Hansen J, de Jonge J, Kersten G, Warner J, Semper A, Kruiswijk C, Oftung F. Fast vaccine design and development based on correlates of protection (COPs). Hum Vaccin Immunother 2014; 10:1935-48. [PMID: 25424803 PMCID: PMC4186026 DOI: 10.4161/hv.28639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2013] [Revised: 03/14/2014] [Accepted: 03/24/2014] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
New and reemerging infectious diseases call for innovative and efficient control strategies of which fast vaccine design and development represent an important element. In emergency situations, when time is limited, identification and use of correlates of protection (COPs) may play a key role as a strategic tool for accelerated vaccine design, testing, and licensure. We propose that general rules for COP-based vaccine design can be extracted from the existing knowledge of protective immune responses against a large spectrum of relevant viral and bacterial pathogens. Herein, we focus on the applicability of this approach by reviewing the established and up-coming COPs for influenza in the context of traditional and a wide array of new vaccine concepts. The lessons learnt from this field may be applied more generally to COP-based accelerated vaccine design for emerging infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cécile van Els
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment; Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | | | - Lisbeth Næss
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health; Oslo, Norway
| | - Julia Sarkadi
- National Center for Epidemiology (NCE); Budapest, Hungary
| | - Eva Gonczol
- National Center for Epidemiology (NCE); Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Jon Hansen
- Statens Serum Institut; Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jørgen de Jonge
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment; Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Gideon Kersten
- Institute for Translational Vaccinology; Bilthoven, the Netherlands
- Leiden Academic Center for Drug Research; University of Leiden; The Netherlands
| | | | | | - Corine Kruiswijk
- Institute for Translational Vaccinology; Bilthoven, the Netherlands
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246
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Rizzoli A, Silaghi C, Obiegala A, Rudolf I, Hubálek Z, Földvári G, Plantard O, Vayssier-Taussat M, Bonnet S, Spitalská E, Kazimírová M. Ixodes ricinus and Its Transmitted Pathogens in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas in Europe: New Hazards and Relevance for Public Health. Front Public Health 2014. [PMID: 25520947 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2014.00251.pmid:25520947;pmcid:pmc4248671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Tick-borne diseases represent major public and animal health issues worldwide. Ixodes ricinus, primarily associated with deciduous and mixed forests, is the principal vector of causative agents of viral, bacterial, and protozoan zoonotic diseases in Europe. Recently, abundant tick populations have been observed in European urban green areas, which are of public health relevance due to the exposure of humans and domesticated animals to potentially infected ticks. In urban habitats, small and medium-sized mammals, birds, companion animals (dogs and cats), and larger mammals (roe deer and wild boar) play a role in maintenance of tick populations and as reservoirs of tick-borne pathogens. Presence of ticks infected with tick-borne encephalitis virus and high prevalence of ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., causing Lyme borreliosis, have been reported from urbanized areas in Europe. Emerging pathogens, including bacteria of the order Rickettsiales (Anaplasma phagocytophilum, "Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis," Rickettsia helvetica, and R. monacensis), Borrelia miyamotoi, and protozoans (Babesia divergens, B. venatorum, and B. microti) have also been detected in urban tick populations. Understanding the ecology of ticks and their associations with hosts in a European urbanized environment is crucial to quantify parameters necessary for risk pre-assessment and identification of public health strategies for control and prevention of tick-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annapaola Rizzoli
- Fondazione Edmund Mach, Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all'Adige , Trento , Italy
| | - Cornelia Silaghi
- Comparative Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität , Munich , Germany ; Vetsuisse-Faculty, Swiss National Centre for Vector Entomology, Institute for Parasitology, University of Zurich , Zürich , Switzerland
| | - Anna Obiegala
- Comparative Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität , Munich , Germany ; Institute of Animal Hygiene and Veterinary Public Health, University of Leipzig , Leipzig , Germany
| | - Ivo Rudolf
- Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v.v.i. , Brno , Czech Republic
| | - Zdeněk Hubálek
- Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v.v.i. , Brno , Czech Republic
| | - Gábor Földvári
- Department of Parasitology and Zoology, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Szent István University , Budapest , Hungary
| | - Olivier Plantard
- INRA, UMR1300 BioEpAR , Nantes , France ; LUNAM Université, Oniris, Ecole nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique, UMR BioEpAR , Nantes , France
| | - Muriel Vayssier-Taussat
- USC BIPAR, INRA, ANSES - French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety , Maisons-Alfort , France
| | - Sarah Bonnet
- USC BIPAR, INRA, ANSES - French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety , Maisons-Alfort , France
| | - Eva Spitalská
- Institute of Virology, Slovak Academy of Sciences , Bratislava , Slovakia
| | - Mária Kazimírová
- Institute of Zoology, Slovak Academy of Sciences , Bratislava , Slovakia
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Dommar CJ, Lowe R, Robinson M, Rodó X. An agent-based model driven by tropical rainfall to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak. Acta Trop 2014; 129:61-73. [PMID: 23958228 PMCID: PMC7117343 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.08.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2012] [Revised: 07/30/2013] [Accepted: 08/06/2013] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
An agent-based model is used to describe the spatio-temporal spread of chikungunya. A chikungunya epidemic with symptomatic and asymptomatic classes is described. Restricting the movement of symptomatic individuals cannot halt disease spread. Probability of symptomatic people moving has minimal impact on disease incidence. Identification of asymptomatic people would help control a chikungunya epidemic.
Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new, previously unaffected, regions. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. We develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals is found to be an insufficient mechanism to halt the spread of the disease, which can be readily carried to neighbouring nodes via sub-clinical individuals. Furthermore, the impact of topology structure vs. precipitation levels is assessed and precipitation is found to be the dominant factor driving spatio-temporal transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos J. Dommar
- Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain
- Corresponding author. Tel.: +34 93 567 99 77; fax: +34 93 309 76 00.
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain
| | | | - Xavier Rodó
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalunya, Spain
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248
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Climate change and public health policy: translating the science. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2013; 11:13-29. [PMID: 24452252 PMCID: PMC3924434 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110100013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2013] [Revised: 11/25/2013] [Accepted: 11/27/2013] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.
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249
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Panic M, Ford JD. A review of national-level adaptation planning with regards to the risks posed by climate change on infectious diseases in 14 OECD nations. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2013; 10:7083-109. [PMID: 24351735 PMCID: PMC3881155 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10127083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2013] [Revised: 11/27/2013] [Accepted: 11/27/2013] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is likely to have significant implications for human health, particularly through alterations of the incidence, prevalence, and distribution of infectious diseases. In the context of these risks, governments in high income nations have begun developing strategies to reduce potential climate change impacts and increase health system resilience (i.e., adaptation). In this paper, we review and evaluate national-level adaptation planning in relation to infectious disease risks in 14 OECD countries with respect to "best practices" for adaptation identified in peer-reviewed literature. We find a number of limitations to current planning, including negligible consideration of the needs of vulnerable population groups, limited emphasis on local risks, and inadequate attention to implementation logistics, such as available funding and timelines for evaluation. The nature of planning documents varies widely between nations, four of which currently lack adaptation plans. In those countries where planning documents were available, adaptations were mainstreamed into existing public health programs, and prioritized a sectoral, rather than multidisciplinary, approach. The findings are consistent with other scholarship examining adaptation planning indicating an ad hoc and fragmented process, and support the need for enhanced attention to adaptation to infectious disease risks in public health policy at a national level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mirna Panic
- Institut national de santé publique du Québec, 190 boulevard Crémazie Est, Montréal, Québec, H2P1E2, Canada
| | - James D. Ford
- Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Ouest, Montréal, H3A2K6, Canada; E-Mail:
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250
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Moors E, Singh T, Siderius C, Balakrishnan S, Mishra A. Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2013; 468-469 Suppl:S139-S151. [PMID: 23972324 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2013] [Revised: 06/29/2013] [Accepted: 07/04/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eddy Moors
- Earth System Science, Climate Change and Adaptive Land & Water Management, Alterra Wageningen UR, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
| | - Tanya Singh
- Earth System Science, Climate Change and Adaptive Land & Water Management, Alterra Wageningen UR, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Christian Siderius
- Earth System Science, Climate Change and Adaptive Land & Water Management, Alterra Wageningen UR, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Sneha Balakrishnan
- Centre for Global Environment Research, Earth Science and Climate Change Division, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India
| | - Arabinda Mishra
- Centre for Global Environment Research, Earth Science and Climate Change Division, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India
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