Accelerated increase in plant species richness on mountain summits is linked to warming

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non-native species on community responses to climate change

Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm-associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non-native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm-associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool-associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non-native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community-level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non-natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate-driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.

Patterns and drivers of species richness and turnover of neo-endemic and palaeo-endemic vascular plants in a Mediterranean hotspot: the case of Crete, Greece

Background

Exploring species richness and turnover patterns and their drivers can provide new insights into underlying mechanisms shaping community assembly, with significant implications for biodiversity conservation. Here, we explored diversity patterns of non-endemic, neo-endemic and palaeo-endemic vascular plants in Crete, Greece, a Mediterranean hotspot of plant richness and endemism. We evaluated the relationship between α-diversity and environmental (bioclimatic variables, topography), and anthropogenic variables by Generalized Additive Models, after accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Then, we quantified turnover using the novel concept of zeta diversity (the number of shared species by multiple sites), a framework which allows to explore the full spectrum of compositional turnover, the contribution of rare and widespread species to observed patterns and the underlying processes shaping them. Finally, we explored the abiotic and biotic effects, i.e. how well one category of species (non-endemics, palaeo-endemics, neo-endemics) predicts the patterns of the other categories, on zeta diversity by multi-site Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling.

Results

We found a strong correlation between neo-endemic and palaeo-endemic α-diversity, with climate, topography, and human impact driving species richness. Zeta diversity analysis revealed a sharper decrease of shared palaeo-endemic species, followed by neo-endemics, and then by non-endemics with the number of sites considered to estimate compositional turnover. Perhaps, the narrow distributions of palaeo-endemics as relict species and often habitat specialists, thus persisting locally, and of neo-endemics that may have not reached yet their potential geographical range, resulted in the observed zeta diversity decline pattern. Deterministic processes controlled species turnover of rare non-endemic and neo-endemic species, while deterministic and stochastic processes contributed similarly to palaeo-endemic turnover. However, stochasticity dominates in the case of widespread species in all occasions. The environmental and anthropogenic variables were poor predictors of compositional turnover, especially of widespread species. However, the non-endemic species composition was correlated to rare palaeo-endemics and neo-endemics, highlighting the importance of biotic effects in driving turnover patterns.

Conclusions

It seems that centers of neo-endemism of vascular plants coincide with centers of palaeo-endemism in Crete, but species richness and species turnover are shaped by different drivers.

Climatic Drivers of Greening Trends in the Alps

Since the 1980s, vegetated lands have experienced widespread greening at the global scale. Numerous studies have focused on spatial patterns and mechanisms of this phenomenon, especially in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Greening trends in the European Alps have received less attention, although this region has experienced strong climate and land-use changes during recent decades. We studied the rates and spatial patterns of greening in an inner-alpine region of the Western Alps. We used MODIS-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at 8-day temporal and 250 m spatial resolution, for the period 2000–2018, and removed areas with disturbances in order to consider the trends of undisturbed vegetation. The objectives of this study were to (i) quantify trends of greening in a representative area of the Western Alps; and (ii) examine mechanisms and causes of spatial patterns of greening across different plant types. We show that 63% of vegetated areas experienced significant trends during the 2000–2018 period, of which only 8% were negative. We identify (i) a climatic control on spring and autumn phenology with contrasting effects depending on plant type and elevation, and (ii) land-use change dynamics, such as shrub encroachment on abandoned pastures and colonization of new surfaces at high elevation. Below 1500 m, warming temperatures promote incremental greening in the transition from spring to summer, but not in fall, suggesting either photoperiod or water limitation. In the alpine and sub-alpine belts (>1800 m asl), snow prevents vegetation development until late spring, despite favorable temperatures. Instead, at high elevation greening acts both in summer and autumn. However, photoperiod limitation likely prevents forested ecosystems from fully exploiting warmer autumn conditions. We furthermore illustrate two emblematic cases of prominent greening: recent colonization of previously glaciated/non vegetated areas, as well as shrub/tree encroachment due to the abandonment of agricultural practices. Our results demonstrate the interplay of climate and land-use change in controlling greening dynamics in the Western Alps.

Białowieża Forest—A Relic of the High Naturalness of European Forests

In Europe only some small isolated patches of forests with a high degree of naturalness still exist. These are forests, whose structure, composition and function has been shaped by natural dynamics without substantial anthropogenic influence over the long period. In this respect, Białowieża Forest is a unique location in Europe, with continuous forest cover for close to 12,000 years. The palynological, archaeological and historical data document only a weak anthropogenic fingerprint compared to other European lowland forests in Holocene history. Due to long-lasting protection, a large portion of the forest is still composed of stands originating from the pre-silvicultural period. Moreover, the stands of Białowieża Forest converted by silvicultural activities during the 20th century have the potential to recover owing to patches of stands with high naturalness, scattered throughout the forest. As conflict over management of the forest has recurred regularly for close to century, there is a need to summarize our knowledge on the forest history and natural assets, to help making scientifically informed decisions over its future. Expansion of a non-intervention approach to the Polish part of the forest is suggested to increase the stability of the entire ecosystem and enhance the chances for its successful adaptation to changing environmental conditions. This will increase the importance of Białowieża Forest as an open-door laboratory for biology, ecology, and forestry.

A Conceptual Framework for Range-Expanding Species that Track Human-Induced Environmental Change

For many species, human-induced environmental changes are important indirect drivers of range expansion into new regions. We argue that it is important to distinguish the range dynamics of such species from those that occur without, or with less clear, involvement of human-induced environmental changes. We elucidate the salient features of the rapid increase in the number of species whose range dynamics are human induced, and review the relationships and differences to both natural range expansion and biological invasions. We discuss the consequences for science, policy and management in an era of rapid global change and highlight four key challenges relating to basic gaps in knowledge, and the transfer of scientific understanding to biodiversity management and policy. We conclude that range-expanding species responding to human-induced environmental change will become an essential feature for biodiversity management and science in the Anthropocene. Finally, we propose the term neonative for these taxa.

Extinction debts and colonization credits of non-forest plants in the European Alps

Mountain plant species shift their elevational ranges in response to climate change. However, to what degree these shifts lag behind current climate change, and to what extent delayed extinctions and colonizations contribute to these shifts, are under debate. Here, we calculate extinction debt and colonization credit of 135 species from the European Alps by comparing species distribution models with 1576 re-surveyed plots. We find extinction debt in 60% and colonization credit in 38% of the species, and at least one of the two in 93%. This suggests that the realized niche of very few of the 135 species fully tracks climate change. As expected, extinction debts occur below and colonization credits occur above the optimum elevation of species. Colonization credits are more frequent in warmth-demanding species from lower elevations with lower dispersal capability, and extinction debts are more frequent in cold-adapted species from the highest elevations. Local extinctions hence appear to be already pending for those species which have the least opportunity to escape climate warming.

Humboldt’s enigma: What causes global patterns of mountain biodiversity?

Mountains contribute disproportionately to the terrestrial biodiversity of Earth, especially in the tropics, where they host hotspots of extraordinary and puzzling richness. With about 25% of all land area, mountain regions are home to more than 85% of the world’s species of amphibians, birds, and mammals, many entirely restricted to mountains. Biodiversity varies markedly among these regions. Together with the extreme species richness of some tropical mountains, this variation has proven challenging to explain under traditional climatic hypotheses. However, the complex climatic characteristics of rugged mountain regions differ fundamentally from those of lowland regions, likely playing a key role in generating and maintaining diversity. With ongoing global changes in climate and land use, the role of mountains as refugia for biodiversity may well come under threat.

Comparing the impacts of climate change on the responses and linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems

Aquatic and terrestrial organisms are being exposed to a number of anthropogenically-induced environmental stresses as a consequence of climate change. In addition, climate change is altering various linkages that exist between ecosystems on land and in water. Here we compare and contrast how climate change is altering aquatic and terrestrial environments and address some of the ways that the organisms in these ecosystems, especially the primary producers, are being affected by climate change factors, including changes in temperature, moisture, atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar UV radiation. Whereas there are some responses to climate change in common between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (e.g., changes in species composition and shifting geographic ranges and distributions), there are also responses that fundamentally differ between these two (e.g., responses to UV radiation). Climate change is also disrupting land-water connections in ways that influence biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions in ways that can modify how aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are affected by climate change and can influence climate change. The effects of climate change on these ecosystems are having wide-ranging effects on ecosystem biodiversity, structure and function and the abilities of these systems to provide essential services.

Life history traits predict colonization and extinction lags of desert plant species since the Last Glacial Maximum

Variation in life-history strategies can affect metapopulation dynamics and consequently the composition and diversity of communities. However, data sets that allow for the full range of species turnover from colonization to extinction over relevant time periods are limited. The late Quaternary record provides unique opportunities to explore the traits that may have influenced interspecific variation in responses to past climate warming, in particular the rate at which species colonized newly suitable habitat or went locally extinct from degrading habitat. We controlled for differences in species climate niches in order to predict expected colonization and extinction sequences recorded in packrat middens from 15 localities in the Mohave, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan deserts of North America. After accounting for temperature niche differences, we tested the hypotheses that dispersal syndrome (none, wind, vertebrate), growth form (herb, shrub, tree) and seed mass mediated variation in postglacial colonization lags among species, whereas clonality (clonal, non-clonal), growth form, and seed mass affected extinction lags. Growth form and dispersal syndrome interactively affected colonization lags, where herbaceous species lacking long-distance dispersal mechanisms exhibited lags that exceeded those of woody, wind or vertebrate-dispersed species by an average of 2,000-5,000 yr. Growth form and seed mass interactively affected extinction lags, with very small-seeded shrubs persisting for 4,000-8,000 yr longer than other functional groups. Taller, vertebrate-dispersed plants have been shown in other studies to disperse farther than shorter plants without specialized dispersal mechanisms. We found that variation along this axis of dispersal syndromes resulted in dramatic differences in colonization rates in response to past climate change. Very small seeded shrubs may have a unique combination of long vegetative and seed bank lifetimes that may allow them to persist for long periods despite declines in habitat condition. This study indicates that readily measurable traits may help predict which species will be more or less sensitive to future climate change, and inform interventions that can stabilize and promote at-risk populations.

Latitudinal variation in soil nematode communities under climate warming-related range-expanding and native plants

Current climate change has led to latitudinal and altitudinal range expansions of numerous species. During such range expansions, plant species are expected to experience changes in interactions with other organisms, especially with belowground biota that have a limited dispersal capacity. Nematodes form a key component of the belowground food web as they include bacterivores, fungivores, omnivores and root herbivores. However, their community composition under climate change-driven intracontinental range-expanding plants has been studied almost exclusively under controlled conditions, whereas little is known about actual patterns in the field. Here, we use novel molecular sequencing techniques combined with morphological quantification in order to examine nematode communities in the rhizospheres of four range-expanding and four congeneric native species along a 2,000 km latitudinal transect from South-Eastern to North-Western Europe. We tested the hypotheses that latitudinal shifts in nematode community composition are stronger in range-expanding plant species than in congeneric natives and that in their new range, range-expanding plant species accumulate fewest root-feeding nematodes. Our results show latitudinal variation in nematode community composition of both range expanders and native plant species, while operational taxonomic unit richness remained the same across ranges. Therefore, range-expanding plant species face different nematode communities at higher latitudes, but this is also the case for widespread native plant species. Only one of the four range-expanding plant species showed a stronger shift in nematode community composition than its congeneric native and accumulated fewer root-feeding nematodes in its new range. We conclude that variation in nematode community composition with increasing latitude occurs for both range-expanding and native plant species and that some range-expanding plant species may become released from root-feeding nematodes in the new range.

Short-term climate-induced change in French plant communities

Latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in response to climate change have been reported for numerous animal species, especially those with high dispersal capacities. In plants, the impact of climate change on species distribution or community composition has been documented mainly over long periods (decades) and in specific habitats, often forests. Here, we broaden the results of such long-term, focused studies by examining climate-driven changes in plant community composition over a large area (France) encompassing multiple habitat types and over a short period (2009-2017). To this end, we measured mean community thermal preference, calculated as the community-weighted mean of the Ellenberg temperature indicator value, using data from a standardized participatory monitoring scheme. We report a rapid increase in the mean thermal preference of plant communities at national and regional scales, which we relate to climate change. This reshuffling of plant community composition corresponds to a relative increase in the abundance of warm- versus cold-adapted species. However, support for this trend was weaker when considering only the common species, including common annuals. Our results thus suggest for the first time that the response of plant communities to climate change involves subtle changes affecting all species rare and common, which can nonetheless be detected over short time periods. Whether such changes are sufficient to cope with the current climate warming remains to be ascertained.

Global patterns of intraspecific leaf trait responses to elevation

Elevational gradients are often used to quantify how traits of plant species respond to abiotic and biotic environmental variations. Yet, such analyses are frequently restricted spatially and applied along single slopes or mountain ranges. Since we know little on the response of intraspecific leaf traits to elevation across the globe, we here perform a global meta-analysis of leaf traits in 109 plant species located in 4 continents and reported in 71 studies published between 1983 and 2018. We quantified the intraspecific change in seven morpho-ecophysiological leaf traits along global elevational gradients: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf area (LA), nitrogen concentration per unit of area (Narea), nitrogen concentration per unit mass (Nmass), phosphorous concentration per unit mass (Pmass) and carbon isotope composition (δ¹³ C). We found LMA, Narea, Nmass and δ¹³ C to significantly increase and SLA to decrease with increasing elevation. Conversely, LA and Pmass showed no significant pattern with elevation worldwide. We found significantly larger increase in Narea, Nmass, Pmass and δ¹³ C with elevation in warmer regions. Larger responses to increasing elevation were apparent for SLA of herbaceous compared to woody species, but not for the other traits. Finally, we also detected evidences of covariation across morphological and physiological traits within the same elevational gradient. In sum, we demonstrate that there are common cross-species patterns of intraspecific leaf trait variation across elevational gradients worldwide. Irrespective of whether such variation is genetically determined via local adaptation or attributed to phenotypic plasticity, the leaf trait patterns quantified here suggest that plant species are adapted to live on a range of temperature conditions. Since the distribution of mountain biota is predominantly shifting upslope in response to changes in environmental conditions, our results are important to further our understanding of how plants species of mountain ecosystems adapt to global environmental change.

Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change

Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its 'typical' species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.

Thermoregulatory traits combine with range shifts to alter the future of montane ant assemblages

Predicting and understanding the biological response to future climate change is a pressing challenge for humanity. In the 21st century, many species will move into higher latitudes and higher elevations as the climate warms. In addition, the relative abundances of species within local assemblages are likely to change. Both effects have implications for how ecosystems function. Few biodiversity forecasts, however, take account of both shifting ranges and changing abundances. We provide a novel analysis predicting the potential changes to assemblage-level relative abundances in the 21st century. We use an established relationship linking ant abundance and their colour and size traits to temperature and UV-B to predict future abundance changes. We also predict future temperature driven range shifts and use these to alter the available species pool for our trait-mediated abundance predictions. We do this across three continents under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Under RCP2.6, predicted changes to ant assemblages by 2100 are moderate. On average, species richness will increase by 26%, while species composition and relative abundance structure will be 26% and 30% different, respectively, compared with modern assemblages. Under RCP8.5, however, highland assemblages face almost a tripling of species richness and compositional and relative abundance changes of 66% and 77%. Critically, we predict that future assemblages could be reorganized in terms of which species are common and which are rare: future highland assemblages will not simply comprise upslope shifts of modern lowland assemblages. These forecasts reveal the potential for radical change to montane ant assemblages by the end of the 21st century if temperature increases continue. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait-environment relationships into future biodiversity predictions. Looking forward, the major challenge is to understand how ecosystem processes will respond to compositional and relative abundance changes.

Humboldt's Tableau Physique revisited

Alexander von Humboldt's Tableau Physique (1807) has been one of the most influential diagrams in the history of environmental sciences. In particular, detailed observations of the altitudinal distribution of plant species in the equatorial Andes, depicted on a cross-section of Mt. Chimborazo, allowed Humboldt to establish the concept of vegetation belt, thereby laying the foundations of biogeography. Surprisingly, Humboldt's original data have never been critically revisited, probably due to the difficulty of gathering and interpreting dispersed archives. By unearthing and analyzing overlooked historical documents, we show that the top section of the Tableau Physique, above the tree line, is an intuitive construct based on unverified and therefore partly false field data that Humboldt constantly tried to revise in subsequent publications. This finding has implications for the documentation of climate change effects in the tropical Andes. We found that Humboldt's primary plant data above tree line were mostly collected on Mt. Antisana, not Chimborazo, which allows a comparison with current records. Our resurvey at Mt. Antisana revealed a 215- to 266-m altitudinal shift over 215 y. This estimate is about twice lower than previous estimates for the region but is consistent with the 10- to 12-m/decade upslope range shift observed worldwide. Our results show the cautious approach needed to interpret historical data and to use them as a resource for documenting environmental changes. They also profoundly renew our understanding of Humboldt's scientific thinking, methods, and modern relevance.

Species' Range Dynamics Affect the Evolution of Spatial Variation in Plasticity under Environmental Change

While clines in environmental tolerance and phenotypic plasticity along a single species' range have been reported repeatedly and are of special interest in the context of adaptation to environmental changes, we know little about their evolution. Recent empirical findings in ectotherms suggest that processes underlying dynamic species' ranges can give rise to spatial differences in environmental tolerance and phenotypic plasticity within species. We used individual-based simulations to investigate how plasticity and tolerance evolve in the course of three scenarios of species' range shifts and range expansions on environmental gradients. We found that regions of a species' range that experienced a longer history or larger extent of environmental change generally exhibited increased plasticity or tolerance. Such regions may be at the trailing edge when a species is tracking its ecological niche in space (e.g., in a climate change scenario) or at the front edge when a species expands into a new habitat (e.g., in an expansion/invasion scenario). Elevated tolerance and plasticity in the distribution center was detected when asymmetric environmental change (e.g., polar amplification) led to a range expansion. However, tolerance and plasticity clines were transient and slowly flattened out after range dynamics because of genetic assimilation.

The Soil Microbiome of GLORIA Mountain Summits in the Swiss Alps

While vegetation has intensively been surveyed on mountain summits, limited knowledge exists about the diversity and community structure of soil biota. Here, we study how climatic variables, vegetation, parent material, soil properties, and slope aspect affect the soil microbiome on 10 GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine environments) mountain summits ranging from the lower alpine to the nival zone in Switzerland. At these summits we sampled soils from all four aspects and examined how the bacterial and fungal communities vary by using Illumina MiSeq sequencing. We found that mountain summit soils contain highly diverse microbial communities with a total of 10,406 bacterial and 6,291 fungal taxa. Bacterial α-diversity increased with increasing soil pH and decreased with increasing elevation, whereas fungal α-diversity did not change significantly. Soil pH was the strongest predictor for microbial β-diversity. Bacterial and fungal community structures exhibited a significant positive relationship with plant communities, indicating that summits with a more distinct plant composition also revealed more distinct microbial communities. The influence of elevation was stronger than aspect on the soil microbiome. Several microbial taxa responded to elevation and soil pH. Chloroflexi and Mucoromycota were significantly more abundant on summits at higher elevations, whereas the relative abundance of Basidiomycota and Agaricomycetes decreased with elevation. Most bacterial OTUs belonging to the phylum Acidobacteria were indicators for siliceous parent material and several OTUs belonging to the phylum Planctomycetes were associated with calcareous soils. The trends for fungi were less clear. Indicator OTUs belonging to the genera Mortierella and Naganishia showed a mixed response to parent material, demonstrating their ubiquitous and opportunistic behaviour in soils. Overall, fungal communities responded weakly to abiotic and biotic factors. In contrast, bacterial communities were strongly influenced by environmental changes suggesting they will be strongly affected by future climate change and associated temperature increase and an upward migration of vegetation. Our results provide the first insights into the soil microbiome of mountain summits in the European Alps that are shaped as a result of highly variable local environmental conditions and may help to predict responses of the soil biota to global climate change.

Thirty years of ecological research at the Gran Sasso d’Italia LTER site: climate change in action

Since 1986, vegetation monitoring of alpine plant communities has been performed at the Gran Sasso d’Italia LTER site (https://deims.org/c0738b00-854c-418f-8d4f-69b03486e9fd) in the Central Apennines, through phytosociological relevés and abundance and coverage estimation of the vascular flora at fine scale. The monitoring activities for abiotic parameters regard air and soil temperatures, rainfall, snowfall and snow cover persistence.

A comparative analysis of changes in species composition, life forms, life strategies and morpho-functional types allowed recognition of dynamical processes (fluctuation and degeneration) and an increase in stress- and drought-tolerant and ruderal species, probably linked to a general process of climate change.

A trend of variation forced by increasing drought was recorded in high-mountain plant communities, normally within a dynamic fluctuation process. There has been a 50–80% change in species composition with respect to the total number of species observed over the years. Whereas the total number of species has increased in all communities, in high-mountain mesic grassland 20% of sensitive species have completely disappeared. Early signs of a degeneration process were already discernible after seven years: such signs are more evident in snow-dependent communities, with a quantitative increase in more thermophilic and drought-tolerant species and a parallel decrease in more mesic, cryophilic and competitive species. In particular, the following phenomena have been recorded in high-mountain mesic grassland, in agreement with predicted or observed phenomena in other Alpine or Arctic areas: (a) coverage increase (or appearance) of ruderal and stress- and drought-tolerant species; (b) coverage decrease (or disappearance) of cryophilic, mesic and competitive species.

These short-term changes could lead, in the medium- or long-term, to a disgregation process affecting the high elevation plant communities of the Apennines (including the local extinction of most of the cold-adapted species), due to their very low resilience. The phenomena described may be linked to the observed climate change which occurred during the last century (in particular in the last 50 years) in the Apennines, consisting mainly, in the mountains, of a strong reduction in the duration of snow-cover and an increase in mean and minimum annual temperatures.

Four decades of plant community change along a continental gradient of warming

Many studies of individual sites have revealed biotic changes consistent with climate warming (e.g., upward elevational distribution shifts), but our understanding of the tremendous variation among studies in the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal. In this study, we resurveyed forest vegetation plots 40 years after the initial surveys in three protected areas along a west-to-east gradient of increasingly steep recent warming trends in eastern Canada (Québec). Consistent with the hypothesis that climate warming has been an important driver of vegetation change, we found an increasing magnitude of changes in species richness and composition from west to east among the three parks. For the two mountainous parks, we found no significant changes in elevational species' distributions in the easternmost park (raw mean = +11.4 m at Forillon Park) where warming has been minimal, and significant upward distribution shifts in the centrally located park (+38.9 m at Mont-Mégantic), where the recent warming trend has been marked. Community Temperature Indices (CTI), reflecting the average affinities of locally co-occurring species to temperature conditions across their geographic ranges ("Species Temperature Indices"), did not change over time as predicted. However, close examination of the underpinnings of CTI values suggested a high sensitivity to uncertainty in individual species' temperature indices, and so a potentially limited responsiveness to warming. Overall, by testing a priori predictions concerning variation among parks in the direction and magnitude of vegetation changes, we have provided stronger evidence for a link between climate warming and biotic responses than otherwise possible and provided a potential explanation for large variation among studies in warming-related biotic changes.

Different effects of alpine woody plant expansion on domestic and wild ungulates

Changes in land-use and climate affect the distribution and diversity of plant and animal species at different spatiotemporal scales. The extent to which species-specific phenotypic plasticity and biotic interactions mediate organismal adaptation to changing environments, however, remains poorly understood. Woody plant expansion is threatening the extent of alpine grasslands worldwide, and evaluating and predicting its effects on herbivores is of crucial importance. Here, we explore the impact of shrubification on the feeding efficiency of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra p. pyrenaica), as well as on the three most abundant coexisting domestic ungulate species: cattle, sheep and horses. We use observational diet composition from May to October and model different scenarios of vegetation availability where shrubland and woodland proliferate at the expense of grassland. We then predicted if the four ungulate species could efficiently utilize their food landscapes with their current dietary specificities measuring their niche breath in each scenario. We observed that the wild counterpart, due to a higher trophic plasticity, is less disturbed by shrubification compared to livestock, which rely primarily on herbaceous plants and will be affected 3.6 times more. Our results suggest that mixed feeders, such as chamois, could benefit from fallow landscapes, and that mountain farmers are at a growing economic risk worldwide due to changing land-use practices and climate conditions.

Rapid changes in eastern Himalayan alpine flora with climate change

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

With biodiversity and rates of climate change among the highest, the eastern Himalaya are critical for understanding the interaction of these two variables. However, there is a dearth of longitudinal data sets that address the effects of climate change on the exceptional alpine biodiversity of the Himalaya.

METHODS

We established permanent alpine vegetation monitoring plots in three mountain chains of the Hengduan Mountains, the easternmost Himalaya, which have warmed 0.03-0.05°C yr^-1 since 1985. Recently, we resampled plots (176 1-m² quadrat plots and 88 sections of 11 summits in three Hengduan mountain chains) to measure changes in vegetation after 7 years.

KEY RESULTS

Over 7 years, Tibetan alpine vegetation increased in number of species (+8 species/summit; +2.3 species/m² ), in frequency (+47.8 plants/m² ), and in diversity (+1.6 effective species/m² ). Stepwise regressions indicated that warmer temperatures, southerly aspects, and higher elevations were associated with greater increases in these vegetation metrics. Unexpectedly, Himalayan endemic species increased (+1.4 species/m² ; +8.5 plants/m² ), especially on higher-elevation summits. In contrast, the increase in relative abundance of non-alpine species was greater at lower-elevation summits. Plants used by local Tibetans also increased (+1.3 species/m² ; +32 plants/m² ).

CONCLUSIONS

As in other alpine areas, biodiversity is increasing with climate change in the Himalaya. Unlike other areas, endemic species are proliferating at the highest summits and are indicators of change.

Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains region

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis, a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in mean elevation of 302.3 m between the pre-1970s (1922-1969) and the post-1970s (1970-2016). The model predictions suggest that the future suitable climate space will continue to shift upwards in elevation (as well as northwards and westwards) by 2070. While for most of the analyzed species, the area of suitable climate space is predicted to expand under the optimistic emission scenario, the area contracts, or, at best, shows little change under the pessimistic scenario. Species such as M. punicea, which already occupy high latitudes, are consistently predicted to experience a contraction of suitable climate space across all the models by 2070 and may consequently deserve particular attention by conservation strategies. Collectively, our results suggest that the alpine high-latitude species analyzed here have already been significantly impacted by climate change and that these trends may continue over the coming decades.

Climate-land-use interactions shape tropical mountain biodiversity and ecosystem functions

Agriculture and the exploitation of natural resources have transformed tropical mountain ecosystems across the world, and the consequences of these transformations for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are largely unknown^1-3. Conclusions that are derived from studies in non-mountainous areas are not suitable for predicting the effects of land-use changes on tropical mountains because the climatic environment rapidly changes with elevation, which may mitigate or amplify the effects of land use^4,5. It is of key importance to understand how the interplay of climate and land use constrains biodiversity and ecosystem functions to determine the consequences of global change for mountain ecosystems. Here we show that the interacting effects of climate and land use reshape elevational trends in biodiversity and ecosystem functions on Africa's largest mountain, Mount Kilimanjaro (Tanzania). We find that increasing land-use intensity causes larger losses of plant and animal species richness in the arid lowlands than in humid submontane and montane zones. Increases in land-use intensity are associated with significant changes in the composition of plant, animal and microorganism communities; stronger modifications of plant and animal communities occur in arid and humid ecosystems, respectively. Temperature, precipitation and land use jointly modulate soil properties, nutrient turnover, greenhouse gas emissions, plant biomass and productivity, as well as animal interactions. Our data suggest that the response of ecosystem functions to land-use intensity depends strongly on climate; more-severe changes in ecosystem functioning occur in the arid lowlands and the cold montane zone. Interactions between climate and land use explained-on average-54% of the variation in species richness, species composition and ecosystem functions, whereas only 30% of variation was related to single drivers. Our study reveals that climate can modulate the effects of land use on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and points to a lowered resistance of ecosystems in climatically challenging environments to ongoing land-use changes in tropical mountainous regions.

Moderate warming over the past 25 years has already reorganized stream invertebrate communities

Climate warming often results in species range shifts, biodiversity loss and accumulated climatic debts of biota (i.e. slower changes in biota than in temperature). Here, we analyzed the changes in community composition and temperature signature of stream invertebrate communities over 25 years (1990-2014), based on a large set of samples (n = 3782) over large elevation, latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in central Europe. Although warming was moderate (average 0.5 °C), we found a strong reorganization of stream invertebrate communities. Total abundance (+35.9%) and richness (+39.2%) significantly increased. The share of abundance (TA) and taxonomic richness (TR) of warm-dwelling taxa (TA: +73.2%; TR: +60.2%) and medium-temperature-dwelling taxa (TA: +0.4%; TR: +5.8%) increased too, while cold-dwelling taxa declined (TA: -61.5%; TR: -47.3%). The community temperature index, representing the temperature signature of stream invertebrate communities, increased at a similar pace to physical temperature, indicating a thermophilization of the communities and, for the first time, no climatic debt. The strongest changes occurred along the altitudinal gradient, suggesting that stream invertebrates use the spatial configuration of river networks to track their temperature niche uphill. Yet, this may soon come to an end due to the summit trap effect. Our results indicate an ongoing process of replacement of cold-adapted species by thermophilic species at only 0.5 °C warming, which is particularly alarming in the light of the more drastic climate warming projected for coming decades.

Antarctic Studies Show Lichens to be Excellent Biomonitors of Climate Change

Lichens have been used as biomonitors for multiple purposes. They are well-known as air pollution indicators around urban and industrial centers. More recently, several attempts have been made to use lichens as monitors of climate change especially in alpine and polar regions. In this paper, we review the value of saxicolous lichens for monitoring environmental changes in Antarctic regions. The pristine Antarctica offers a unique opportunity to study the effects of climate change along a latitudinal gradient that extends between 62° and 87° S. Both lichen species diversity and thallus growth rate seem to show significant correlations to mean annual temperature for gradients across the continent as well as to short time climate oscillation in the Antarctic Peninsula. Competition interactions appear to be small so that individual thalli develop in balance with environmental conditions and, as a result, can indicate the trends in productivity for discrete time intervals over long periods of time.

A minimalist model of extinction and range dynamics of virtual mountain species driven by warming temperatures

A longstanding question in ecology concerns the prediction of the fate of mountain species under climate change, where climatic and geomorphic factors but also endogenous species characteristics are jointly expected to control species distributions. A significant step forward would single out reliably landscape effects, given their constraining role and relative ease of theoretical manipulation. Here, we address population dynamics in ecosystems where the substrates for ecological interactions are mountain landscapes subject to climate warming. We use a minimalist model of metapopulation dynamics based on virtual species (i.e. a suitable assemblage of focus species) where dispersal processes interact with the spatial structure of the landscape. Climate warming is subsumed by an upward shift of species habitat altering the metapopulation capacity of the landscape and hence species viability. We find that the landscape structure is a powerful determinant of species survival, owing to the specific role of the predictably evolving connectivity of the various habitats. Range shifts and lags in tracking suitable habitat experienced by virtual species under warming conditions are singled out in different landscapes. The range of parameters is identified for which these virtual species (characterized by comparable viability thus restricting their possible fitnesses and niche widths) prove unable to cope with environmental change. The statistics of the proportion of species bound to survive is identified for each landscape, providing the temporal evolution of species range shifts and the related expected occupation patterns. A baseline dynamic model for predicting species fates in evolving habitats is thus provided.

Potential invasive plant expansion in global ecoregions under climate change

Climate change is increasing the risk of invasive plant expansion worldwide. However, few studies have specified the relationship between invasive plant expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change. To address this gap, we provide risk maps highlighting the response of invasive plant species (IPS), with a focus on terrestrial and freshwater ecoregions to climate change, and further explore the climatic features of ecosystems with a high potential for invasive plant expansion under climate change. We use species distribution modelling to predict the suitable habitats of IPS with records at the global scale. Hotspots with a potential risk of IPS (such as aquatic plants, trees, and herbs) expanding in global ecoregions were distributed in Northern Europe, the UK, South America, North America, southwest China, and New Zealand. Temperature changes were related to the potential of IPS expansion in global ecoregions under climate change. Coastal and high latitude ecoregions, such as temperate forests, alpine vegetation, and coastal rivers, were severely infiltrated by IPS under climate change. Monitoring strategies should be defined for climate change for IPS, particularly for aquatic plants, trees, and herbs in the biomes of regions with coastal or high latitudes. The role of climate change on the potential for IPS expansion should be taken into consideration for biological conservation and risk evaluation of IPS at ecoregional scales.

Plant traits inform predictions of tundra responses to global change

Contents Summary 1742 I. Introduction 1742 II. The global context of tundra trait variation 1743 III. The current state of knowledge on trait change in the tundra biome 1744 IV. The links between traits and ecosystem functions 1744 V. Future priorities for tundra trait research 1746 VI. Conclusions 1746 References 1747 SUMMARY: In the rapidly warming tundra biome, plant traits provide an essential link between ongoing vegetation change and feedbacks to key ecosystem functions. However, only recently have comprehensive trait data been compiled for tundra species and sites, allowing us to assess key elements of functional responses to global change. In this review, we summarize trait-based research in tundra ecosystems, with a focus on three components: plant trait variation and how it compares with global patterns; shifts in community-level traits in response to environmental change; and the use of traits to understand and predict ecosystem function. Quantifying patterns and trends in plant traits will allow us to better project the consequences of environmental change for the ecology and functioning of tundra ecosystems.

Vegetation distribution along mountain environmental gradient predicts shifts in plant community response to climate change in alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

Plants are particularly sensitive to climate change in alpine ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau. The various mountain micro-climates provide a natural gradient for space-for-time substitution research that plant responses to climate change. In this study, we surveyed the plant community in term of species composition, diversity and biomass across 189 sites on a hill of the Tibetan Plateau and analysed the individual and integrated effects of soil temperature and moisture on the plant community. The results showed that, at the quadrat scale, there were decrease in richness of 1.08 species for every 1 °C increase in soil temperature and 3.56 species for every 10% decrease in soil moisture. The integrated effects of increasing soil temperature and decreasing moisture are expected to lead to a rapid decrease in species richness. Biomass had no significant correlation with soil temperature but significantly decreased with soil moisture decreasing (p < 0.01). Biomass would decrease when soil moisture was below 20%, no matter how the change of soil temperature. We also found that gramineae and perennial forbs were sensitive to climate change. With soil temperature increased, the proportion of gramineae increased, whereas the proportion of perennial forbs decreased. The integrated effects of soil temperature increasing and moisture decreasing caused a shift from sedge-controlled to gramineae-controlled communities in alpine meadow. This study not only enhances our understanding of mountain plant community dynamics under climate change, but also predicts the shift of vegetation response to climate change on high-elevation alpine meadow.

Species turnover reveals hidden effects of decreasing nitrogen deposition in mountain hay meadows

Nitrogen (N) deposition is a major threat to biodiversity in many habitats. The recent introduction of cleaner technologies in Switzerland has led to a reduction in the emissions of nitrogen oxides, with a consequent decrease in N deposition. We examined different drivers of plant community change, that is, N deposition, climate warming, and land-use change, in Swiss mountain hay meadows, using data from the Swiss biodiversity monitoring program. We compared indicator values of species that disappeared from or colonized a site (species turnover) with the indicator values of randomly chosen species from the same site. While oligotrophic plant species were more likely to colonize, compared to random expectation, we found only weak shifts in plant community composition. In particular, the average nutrient value of plant communities remained stable over time (2003-2017). We found the largest deviations from random expectation in the nutrient values of colonizing species, suggesting that N deposition or other factors that change the nutrient content of soils were important drivers of the species composition change over the last 15 years in Swiss mountain hay meadows. In addition, we observed an overall replacement of species with lower indicator values for temperature with species with higher values. Apparently, the community effects of the replacement of eutrophic species with oligotrophic species was outweighed by climate warming. Our results add to the increasing evidence that plant communities in changing environments may be relatively stable regarding average species richness or average indicator values, but that this apparent stability is often accompanied by a marked turnover of species.

Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems

Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change: terrestrial ecosystems.

On the Causes of Rapid Diversification in the Páramos: Isolation by Ecology and Genomic Divergence in Espeletia

How diversity arises and what is the relative role of allopatric and ecological divergence are among the most persistent questions in evolution and ecology. Here, we assessed whether ecological divergence has enhanced the diversification of the Neotropical alpine plant complex Espeletia, also known as frailejones. This genus has one of the highest diversification rates ever reported and is distributed in the world's fastest evolving biodiversity hotspot, the Páramo (Neotropical alpine grasslands at elevations of c. 2800-4700 m). Our goal was to determine whether ecology plays a role in divergence within the Espeletia complex by quantifying genome-wide patterns of ecological divergence. We characterized 162 samples of the three most common and contrasting ecotypes (distinct morphotypes occupying particular habitats) co-occurring in six localities in the northern Andes using Genotyping by Sequencing. Contrasting ecotypes were caulescent cloud forest populations, caulescent populations from wind-sheltered and well-irrigated depressions and acaulescent populations from wind-exposed drier slopes. We found high polymorphism with a total of 1,273 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that defined the relationships among nine genetic clusters. We quantified allelic associations of these markers with localities and habitats using 18 different general and mixed-effects statistical models that accounted for phylogenetic distance. Despite that these models always yielded more SNPs associated with the localities, markers associated with the habitat types were recovered too. We found strong evidence for isolation-by-distance (IBD) across populations despite rampant gene flow, as expected for plant groups with limited seed dispersal. Contrasts between populations of different habitat types showed that an isolation-by-environment (IBE) trend emerged and masked the IBD signal. Maximum likelihood estimation of the number of migrants per generation (Nem) among ecotypes confirmed the IBE pattern. This result illustrates the importance of mountains' environmental variation at a local scale in generating rapid morphological radiations and maintaining multiple adaptations in a fast-evolving ecosystem like the Páramo.

Vegetation trends over eleven years on mountain summits in NW Argentina

As global climate change leads to warmer and dryer conditions in the central Andes, alpine plant communities are forced to upward displacements following their climatic niche. Species range shifts are predicted to have major impacts on alpine communities by reshuffling species composition and abundances. Using a standardized protocol, we surveyed alpine plant communities in permanent plots on four high Andean summits in NW Argentina, which range from 4,040 to 4,740 m a.s.l. After a baseline survey in 2006-2008, we resurvey the same plots in 2012, and again in 2017. We found a significant decrease in plant cover, species richness, and diversity across the elevation gradient in the three censuses and a strong decrease in soil temperature along the elevation gradient. We found a high plant community turnover (37%-49%) among censuses, differentiating according to summits and aspects; major changes of community turnover were observed in the lowest summit (49%) and on the northern (47%) and western (46%) aspects. Temporal patterns in community changes were represented by increases in plant cover in the highest summit, in species richness in the lower summit, and in diversity (Shannon index) in the four summits, over time, together with increase in small herbs and non-tussock grasses. We suggest that the observed trend in plant community dynamics responds to short-term temperature and precipitation variability, which is influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and due to time lags in plant community response, it may take much longer than one decade for the observed trends to become stables and statistically significant. Our study provides an important foundation for documenting more profound changes in these subtropical alpine plant communities as global climate change continues.

Relationship between Spatiotemporal Variations of Climate, Snow Cover and Plant Phenology over the Alps—An Earth Observation-Based Analysis

Alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change, and therefore it is of significant interest to understand the relationships between phenology and its seasonal drivers in mountain areas. However, no alpine-wide assessment on the relationship between land surface phenology (LSP) patterns and its climatic drivers including snow exists. Here, an assessment of the influence of snow cover variations on vegetation phenology is presented, which is based on a 17-year time-series of MODIS data. From this data snow cover duration (SCD) and phenology metrics based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have been extracted at 250 m resolution for the entire European Alps. The combined influence of additional climate drivers on phenology are shown on a regional scale for the Italian province of South Tyrol using reanalyzed climate data. The relationship between vegetation and snow metrics strongly depended on altitude. Temporal trends towards an earlier onset of vegetation growth, increasing monthly mean NDVI in spring and late summer, as well as shorter SCD were observed, but they were mostly non-significant and the magnitude of these tendencies differed by altitude. Significant negative correlations between monthly mean NDVI and SCD were observed for 15–55% of all vegetated pixels, especially from December to April and in altitudes from 1000–2000 m. On the regional scale of South Tyrol, the seasonality of NDVI and SCD achieved the highest share of correlating pixels above 1500 m, while at lower elevations mean temperature correlated best. Examining the combined effect of climate variables, for average altitude and exposition, SCD had the highest effect on NDVI, followed by mean temperature and radiation. The presented analysis allows to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of earth-observation based snow and vegetation metrics over the Alps, as well as to understand the relative importance of snow as phenological driver with respect to other climate variables.

Transplants, Open Top Chambers (OTCs) and Gradient Studies Ask Different Questions in Climate Change Effects Studies

Long-term monitoring, space-for-time substitutions along gradients, and in situ temperature manipulations are common approaches to understand effects of climate change on alpine and arctic plant communities. Although general patterns emerge from studies using different approaches, there are also some inconsistencies. To provide better estimates of plant community responses to future warming across a range of environments, there have been repeated calls for integrating different approaches within single studies. Thus, to examine how different methods in climate change effect studies may ask different questions, we combined three climate warming approaches in a single study in the Hengduan Mountains of southwestern China. We monitored plant communities along an elevation gradient using the space-for-time approach, and conducted warming experiments using open top chambers (OTCs) and plant community transplantation toward warmer climates along the same gradient. Plant species richness and abundances were monitored over 5 years addressing two questions: (1) how do plant communities respond to the different climate warming approaches? (2) how can the combined approaches improve predictions of plant community responses to climate change? The general trend across all three approaches was decreased species richness with climate warming at low elevations. This suggests increased competition from immigrating lowland species, and/or from the species already growing inside the plots, as indicated by increased biomass, vegetation height or proportion of graminoids. At the coldest sites, species richness decreased in OTCs and along the gradient, but increased in the transplants, suggesting that plant communities in colder climates are more open to invasion from lowland species, with slow species loss. This was only detected in the transplants, showing that different approaches, may yield different results. Whereas OTCs may constrain immigration of new species, transplanted communities are rapidly exposed to new neighbors that can easily colonize the small plots. Thus, different approaches ask slightly different questions, in particular regarding indirect climate change effects, such as biotic interactions. To better understand both direct and indirect effects of climate change on plant communities, we need to combine approaches in future studies, and if novel interactions are of particular interest, transplants may be a better approach than OTCs.

Mismatch in elevational shifts between satellite observed vegetation greenness and temperature isolines during 2000-2016 on the Tibetan Plateau

Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau tends to induce an uphill shift of temperature isolines. Observations and process-based models have both shown that climate warming has resulted in an increase in vegetation greenness on the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades. However, it is unclear whether the uphill shift of temperature isolines has caused greenness isolines to shift upward and whether the two shifts match each other. Our analysis of satellite observed vegetation greenness during the growing season (May-Sep) and gridded climate data for 2000-2016 documented a substantial mismatch between the elevational shifts of greenness and temperature isolines. This mismatch is probably associated with a lagging response of greenness to temperature change and with the elevational gradient of greenness. The lagging response of greenness may be associated with water limitation, resources availability, and acclimation. This lag may weaken carbon sequestration by Tibetan ecosystems, given that greenness is closely related to primary carbon uptake and ecosystem respiration increases exponentially with temperature. We also found that differences in terrain slope angle accounted for large spatial variations in the elevational gradient of greenness and thus the velocity of elevational shifts of greenness isolines and the sensitivity of elevational shifts of greenness isolines to temperature, highlighting the role of terrain effects on the elevational shifts of greenness isolines. The mismatches and the terrain effect found in this study suggest that there is potentially large micro-topographical difference in response and acclimation/adaptation of greenness to temperature changes in plants. More widespread in situ measurements and fine-resolution remote sensing observations and fine-gridded climate data are required to attribute the mismatch to specific environmental drivers and ecological processes such as vertical changes in community structure, plant physiology, and distribution of species.

Climate change leads to accelerated transformation of high-elevation vegetation in the central Alps

High mountain ecosystems and their biota are governed by low-temperature conditions and thus can be used as indicators for climate warming impacts on natural ecosystems, provided that long-term data exist. We used data from the largest alpine to nival permanent plot site in the Alps, established in the frame of the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments (GLORIA) on Schrankogel in the Tyrolean Alps, Austria, in 1994, and resurveyed in 2004 and 2014. Vascular plant species richness per plot increased over the entire period, albeit to a lesser extent in the second decade, because disappearance events increased markedly in the latter period. Although presence/absence data could only marginally explain range shift dynamics, changes in species cover and plant community composition indicate an accelerating transformation towards a more warmth-demanding and more drought-adapted vegetation, which is strongest at the lowest, least rugged subsite. Divergent responses of vertical distribution groups of species suggest that direct warming effects, rather than competitive displacement, are the primary causes of the observed patterns. The continued decrease in cryophilic species could imply that trailing edge dynamics proceed more rapidly than successful colonisation, which would favour a period of accelerated species declines.

Unchanged risk of frost exposure for subalpine and alpine plants after snowmelt in Switzerland despite climate warming

The length of the snow-free season is a key factor regulating plant phenology and shaping plant community composition in cold regions. While global warming has significantly advanced the time of snowmelt and the growth period at all elevations in the Swiss Alps, it remains unclear if it has altered the likelihood of frost risk for alpine plants. Here, we analyzed the influence of the snowmelt timing on the risk of frost exposure for subalpine and alpine plants shortly after snowmelt, i.e., during their most vulnerable period to frost at the beginning of their growth period. Furthermore, we tested whether recent climate warming has changed the risk of exposure of plants to frost after snowmelt. We analyzed snow and air temperature data in the Swiss Alps using six weather stations covering the period 1970-2016 and 77 weather stations covering the period 1998-2016, spanning elevations from 1418 to 2950 m asl. When analyzed across all years within each station, our results showed strong negative relationships between the time of snowmelt and the frequency and intensity of frost during the most vulnerable period to frost for subalpine and alpine plants, indicating a higher frost risk damage for plants during years with earlier snowmelt. However, over the last 46 years, the time of snowmelt and the last spring frost date have advanced at similar rates, so that the frequency and intensity of frost during the vulnerable period for plants remained unchanged.

Snowmelt Timing Regulates Community Composition, Phenology, and Physiological Performance of Alpine Plants

The spatial patterning of alpine plant communities is strongly influenced by the variation in physical factors such as temperature and moisture, which are strongly affected by snow depth and snowmelt patterns. Earlier snowmelt timing and greater soil-moisture limitations may favor wide-ranging species adapted to a broader set of ecohydrological conditions than alpine-restricted species. We asked how plant community composition, phenology, plant water relations, and photosynthetic gas exchange of alpine-restricted and wide-ranging species differ in their responses to a ca. 40-day snowmelt gradient in the Colorado Rocky Mountains (Lewisia pygmaea, Sibbaldia procumbens, and Hymenoxys grandiflora were alpine-restricted and Artemisia scopulorum, Carex rupestris, and Geum rossii were wide-ranging species). As hypothesized, species richness and foliar cover increased with earlier snowmelt, due to a greater abundance of wide-ranging species present in earlier melting plots. Flowering initiation occurred earlier with earlier snowmelt for 12 out of 19 species analyzed, while flowering duration was shortened with later snowmelt for six species (all but one were wide-ranging species). We observed >50% declines in net photosynthesis from July to September as soil moisture and plant water potentials declined. Early-season stomatal conductance was higher in wide-ranging species, indicating a more competitive strategy for water acquisition when soil moisture is high. Even so, there were no associated differences in photosynthesis or transpiration, suggesting no strong differences between these groups in physiology. Our findings reveal that plant species with different ranges (alpine-restricted vs. wide-ranging) could have differential phenological and physiological responses to snowmelt timing and associated soil moisture dry-down, and that alpine-restricted species' performance is more sensitive to snowmelt. As a result, alpine-restricted species may serve as better indicator species than their wide-ranging heterospecifics. Overall, alpine community composition and peak % cover are strongly structured by spatio-temporal patterns in snowmelt timing. Thus, near-term, community-wide changes (or variation) in phenology and physiology in response to shifts in snowmelt timing or rates of soil dry down are likely to be contingent on the legacy of past climate on community structure.