Sibling comparison designs: bias from non-shared confounders and measurement error

Childhood and Parental Asthma, Future Risk of Bipolar Disorder and Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Mounting evidence implicates early life and prenatal immune disturbances in the etiology of severe mental illnesses. Asthma is a common illness associated with chronic aberrant immune responses. We aimed to determine if asthma in childhood and parents is associated with bipolar and schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

METHODS

A cohort study including all children born in Sweden 1973-1995 (N > 2 million) assessing associations between childhood hospitalization for asthma, parental asthma during and pre-pregnancy, and subsequent bipolar and schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

RESULTS

Children with hospitalizations for asthma between 11 and 15 years had increased rates of bipolar (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.21-2.47) and schizophrenia spectrum disorders (aHR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.08-2.42). However, there was no association with asthma before aged 11. These results were supported by an analysis of siblings discordant for asthma. We found an association between both maternal and paternal asthma and bipolar disorder (aHR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.27-2.02, and aHR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.08-1.93, respectively), but not between parental asthma and schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

As far as we are aware, this is the first study to find increased risk of bipolar disorder in children of individuals with asthma. Asthma admissions before aged 11 do not appear to be linked to bipolar or schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Taken together, our results do not suggest a straightforward link between asthma and severe mental illness via neurodevelopmental effects of inflammation, but potentially there is shared genetic vulnerability. This finding has implications for understanding the differential pathogenic mechanisms of bipolar and schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

A Nationwide Study in Denmark of the Association Between Treated Infections and the Subsequent Risk of Treated Mental Disorders in Children and Adolescents

IMPORTANCE

Infections have been associated with increased risks for mental disorders, such as schizophrenia and depression. However, the association between all infections requiring treatment and the wide range of mental disorders is unknown to date.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between all treated infections since birth and the subsequent risk of development of any treated mental disorder during childhood and adolescence.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based cohort study using Danish nationwide registers. Participants were all individuals born in Denmark between January 1, 1995, and June 30, 2012 (N = 1 098 930). Dates of analysis were November 2017 to February 2018.

EXPOSURES

All treated infections were identified in a time-varying manner from birth until June 30, 2013, including severe infections requiring hospitalizations and less severe infection treated with anti-infective agents in the primary care sector.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

This study identified all mental disorders diagnosed in a hospital setting and any redeemed prescription for psychotropic medication. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed reporting hazard rate ratios (HRRs), including 95% CIs, adjusted for age, sex, somatic comorbidity, parental education, and parental mental disorders.

RESULTS

A total of 1 098 930 individuals (51.3% male) were followed up for 9 620 807.7 person-years until a mean (SD) age of 9.76 (4.91) years. Infections requiring hospitalizations were associated with subsequent increased risk of having a diagnosis of any mental disorder (n = 42 462) by an HRR of 1.84 (95% CI, 1.69-1.99) and with increased risk of redeeming a prescription for psychotropic medication (n = 56 847) by an HRR of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.37-1.46). Infection treated with anti-infective agents was associated with increased risk of having a diagnosis of any mental disorder (HRR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.29-1.51) and with increased risk of redeeming a prescription for psychotropic medication (HRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.18-1.26). Antibiotic use was associated with particularly increased risk estimates. The risk of mental disorders after infections increased in a dose-response association and with the temporal proximity of the last infection. In particular, schizophrenia spectrum disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorder, personality and behavior disorders, mental retardation, autistic spectrum disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder, and tic disorders were associated with the highest risks after infections.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Although the results cannot prove causality, these findings provide evidence for the involvement of infections and the immune system in the etiology of a wide range of mental disorders in children and adolescents.

The Impact of Unemployment on Antidepressant Purchasing: Adjusting for Unobserved Time-constant Confounding in the g-Formula

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background:

The estimated effect of unemployment on depression may be biased by time-varying, intermediate, and time-constant confounding. One of the few methods that can account for these sources of bias is the parametric g-formula, but until now this method has required that all relevant confounders be measured.

Methods:

We combine the g-formula with methods to adjust for unmeasured time-constant confounding. We use this method to estimate how antidepressant purchasing is affected by a hypothetical intervention that provides employment to the unemployed. The analyses are based on an 11% random sample of the Finnish population who were 30–35 years of age in 1995 (n = 49,753) and followed until 2012. We compare estimates that adjust for measured baseline confounders and time-varying socioeconomic covariates (confounders and mediators) with estimates that also include individual-level fixed-effect intercepts.

Results:

In the empirical data, around 10% of person-years are unemployed. Setting these person-years to employed, the g-formula without individual intercepts found a 5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.5%, 7.4%) reduction in antidepressant purchasing at the population level. However, when also adjusting for individual intercepts, we find no association (−0.1%; 95% CI = −1.8%, 1.5%).

Conclusions:

The results indicate that the relationship between unemployment and antidepressants is confounded by residual time-constant confounding (selection). However, restrictions on the effective sample when using individual intercepts can compromise the validity of the results. Overall our approach highlights the potential importance of adjusting for unobserved time-constant confounding in epidemiologic studies and demonstrates one way that this can be done.

Analysis of Observational Self-matched Data to Examine Acute Triggers of Outcome Events with Abrupt Onset

Several self-matched approaches have been proposed, including case-crossover, case-time control, fixed-effects case-time control, and self-controlled case series. Rather than comparing treatment effects between different individuals, studies use these approaches to evaluate the acute effects of transient exposures, often called “triggers,” by comparing outcome risk among the same individual at different times. This eliminates confounding by between-person characteristics that remain stable over time, allowing for valid analyses even in situations where information on some health behaviors is not available, such as long-term smoking history. However, to attain valid results, differences in the probability of exposure and outcome that change over time must be addressed in the design and analysis of the study. In this article, we describe the setting, assumptions and analytic options for conducting studies using self-matched data. Approaches that involve matching or a group of noncases to address time-varying confounding may have less statistical flexibility but they are powerful tools that overcome the need to assume a particular form of any time trends in potential confounders. If data are available for all of the person–time under study, there is a gain in statistical efficiency and the ability to address time-varying confounding using flexible regression models, under the strong assumption of no mis-specification of the model.

Do Birth Weight and Weight Gain During Infancy and Early Childhood Explain Variation in Mammographic Density in Women in Midlife? Results From Cohort and Sibling Analyses

High birth weight is associated with increased breast cancer risk and, less consistently, with higher mammographic density. In contrast, adolescent body size has been consistently, negatively associated with both MD and breast cancer risk. It is unclear when the direction of these associations changes and whether weight gain in infancy is associated with MD. We evaluated the associations of birth weight and postnatal weight (measured at 4 months, 1 year, and 4 years) by absolute and velocity measures (relative within-cohort percentile changes) with adult mammographic density, assessed using a computer-assisted thresholding program (Cumulus), using linear regression models with generalized estimating equations to account for correlation between siblings in the Early Determinants of Mammographic Density study (1959-2008; n = 700 women with 116 sibling sets; mean age = 44.1 years). Birth weight was positively associated with dense area (per 1-kg increase, β = 3.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.06, 6.66). Weight gains from 0 months to 4 months and 1 year to 4 years were negatively associated with dense area (for 10-unit increase in weight percentile, β = -0.65, 95% CI: -1.23, -0.07, and β = -1.07, 95% CI: -1.98, -0.16, respectively). Findings were similar in the sibling subset. These results support the hypothesis that high birth weight is positively associated with increased breast density and suggest that growth spurts starting in early infancy reduce mammographic dense area in adulthood.

Maternal history of miscarriages and measures of fertility in relation to childhood asthma

BACKGROUND

It remains unclear what underlies the greater risk of asthma reported among children conceived by assisted reproductive technologies (ART).

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to clarify the role of parental subfertility and unmeasured confounding on the association between ART and childhood asthma, and to examine the possibility for common mechanisms underlying parental subfertility and miscarriages influencing asthma pathogenesis.

METHODS

We used data from national Norwegian health registries (n=474 402) and the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) (n=75 797). We used log-linear regression to estimate overall associations, and fixed-effects logistic regression to estimate associations within siblings.

RESULTS

ART offspring had greater asthma risk, the adjusted relative risk (aRR) was 1.20 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.32) in the registry-based cohort, and 1.42 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.76) in MoBa. The sibling analysis yielded similar associations, although the CI included the null value. The elevated asthma risk among ART offspring was attenuated when they were compared with spontaneously conceived offspring with time to conception >12 months, aRR 1.22 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.57). Asthma risk also increased with maternal history of early miscarriages (≤12 weeks), with an aRR of 1.07 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.11) for one, aRR 1.18 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.26) for two and aRR 1.24 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.37) for three or more.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that both parental subfertility and characteristics related to the ART procedure itself might increase offspring asthma risk, although this needs to be confirmed in future studies, and further suggest that common mechanisms underlying parental subfertility and recurrent miscarriages might influence offspring asthma pathogenesis.

A Major Limitation of the Direction of Causation Model: Non-Shared Environmental Confounding

Determining (1) the direction of causation and (2) the size of causal effects between two constructs is a central challenge of the scientific study of humans. In the early 1990s, researchers in behavioral genetics invented what was termed the direction of causation (DoC) model to address exactly these two concerns. The model claims that for any two traits whose mode of inheritance is sufficiently different, the direction of causation can be ascertained using a sufficiently large genetically informative sample. Using a series of simulation studies, we demonstrate a major challenge to the DoC model, namely that it is extremely sensitive to even tiny amounts of non-shared confounding. Even under ideal conditions for the DoC model (a large sample,N= 10,000), a large causal relationship (e.g., a causal correlation of .50) with very different modes of inheritance between the two traits (e.g., a pure AE model for one trait and a pure CE model for another trait) and a modest degree (correlation of .10) of non-shared confounding between the two traits results in the choice of the wrong causal models and estimating the wrong causal effects.

Good practices for the design, analysis, and interpretation of observational studies on birth spacing and perinatal health outcomes

BACKGROUND

Meta-analyses of observational studies have shown that women with a shorter interpregnancy interval (the time from delivery to start of a subsequent pregnancy) are more likely to experience adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as preterm delivery or small for gestational age birth, than women who space their births further apart. However, the studies used to inform these estimates have methodological shortcomings.

METHODS

In this commentary, we summarise the discussions of an expert workgroup describing good practices for the design, analysis, and interpretation of observational studies of interpregnancy interval and adverse perinatal health outcomes.

RESULTS

We argue that inferences drawn from research in this field will be improved by careful attention to elements such as: (a) refining the research question to clarify whether the goal is to estimate a causal effect vs describe patterns of association; (b) using directed acyclic graphs to represent potential causal networks and guide the analytic plan of studies seeking to estimate causal effects; (c) assessing how miscarriages and pregnancy terminations may have influenced interpregnancy interval classifications; (d) specifying how key factors such as previous pregnancy loss, pregnancy intention, and maternal socio-economic position will be considered; and (e) examining if the association between interpregnancy interval and perinatal outcome differs by factors such as maternal age.

CONCLUSION

This commentary outlines the discussions of this recent expert workgroup, and describes several suggested principles for study design and analysis that could mitigate many potential sources of bias.

Invited Commentary: Promise and Pitfalls of the Sibling Comparison Design in Studies of Optimal Birth Spacing

Numerous observational studies have shown that infants born after short interpregnancy intervals (the interval between birth and subsequent conception) are more likely to experience adverse perinatal outcomes than infants born following longer intervals. Yet it remains controversial whether the link between short interpregnancy interval and adverse outcomes is causal or is confounded by factors such as low socioeconomic position, inadequate access to health care, and unintended pregnancy. Sibling comparison studies, which use a woman as her own control by comparing exposure and outcome status of her different pregnancies (i.e., comparing sibling offspring), have gained popularity as a strategy to reduce confounding by these difficult-to-measure factors that are nevertheless relatively stable within women. A variant of this approach, used by Regan et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2019;188(1):9-16) and reported in this issue of the Journal, is a maternally matched design based on a single interpregnancy interval per woman. Using real and simulated data, we highlight underappreciated shortcomings of these designs that could limit the validity of study findings. In particular, we illustrate how the single-interval variant appears to derive estimates from comparisons between different mothers, not within mothers. Future studies of optimal birth spacing using sibling comparison designs should examine in detail the potential consequences of these methodological limitations.

Investigating fetal growth restriction and perinatal risks in appropriate for gestational age infants: using cohort and within-sibling analyses

OBJECTIVE

Fetal growth restriction refers to fetuses that fail to reach their growth potential. Studies within siblings may be useful to disclose fetal growth restriction in appropriate for gestational age (AGA) infants. We analysed associations between birthweight percentiles and perinatal risks in AGA infants, using both population-based and within-sibling analyses.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING AND SAMPLE

Using nation-wide Swedish registries (1987-2012), we identified 2 134 924 singleton AGA births (10th-90th birthweight percentile for gestational age), of whom 1 377 326 were full siblings.

METHODS

Unconditional Poisson regression was used for population analyses, and conditional (matched) Poisson regression for within-sibling analyses. We estimated associations between birthweight percentiles and stillbirth, neonatal mortality, and morbidity, using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Stillbirth and neonatal mortality risks declined with increasing birthweight percentiles, but the declines were larger in within-sibling analyses. Compared with the reference group (40th to <60th percentile), IRRs (95% CIs) of stillbirth for the lowest and highest percentile groups (10th to <25th and 75th-90th percentiles, respectively) were 1.87 (1.72-2.03) to 0.76 (0.68-0.85) in population analysis and 2.60 (2.27-2.98) and 0.43 (0.36-0.50) in within-sibling analysis. Neonatal morbidity risks in term non-malformed infants with low birthweight percentiles were generally only increased in within-sibling analyses.

CONCLUSION

Using birthweight information from siblings may help to define fetal growth restriction in AGA infants.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Size of siblings helps to detect growth-restricted infants with seemingly normal birthweights.

Labor augmentation during birth and later cognitive ability in young adulthood

PURPOSE

Synthetic oxytocin for labor augmentation during birth has been linked to negative neurodevelopment effects in children. We examined whether maternal labor augmentation was associated with lower cognitive ability in young adulthoods.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We identified 330,107 individuals (96.6% were men), with noninduced labor and with a cognitive ability test score, the Børge Priens Prøve (BPP) score, from draft board examinations in 1995-2015 (mean age, 18.8 years). Information on maternal labor augmentation was ascertained from the Danish Medical Birth Register, and we calculated mean differences in the BPP score according to maternal labor augmentation. We repeated our analyses in a sub-sample of siblings to control for unmeasured familial confounding.

RESULTS

Maternal labor augmentation was not associated with any noticeable decline in cognitive ability. However, the difference in the mean BPP score for exposure to maternal labor augmentation varied according to maternal parity, as the mean difference in BPP scores increased with increasing parity, in nulliparous: mean difference=-0.14 (95% CI=-0.23 to -0.04); in maternal parity 4+: mean difference=-1.21 (95% CI=-2.905 to -0.37). The sibling analysis showed little influence of shared familial factors on the association.

CONCLUSION

The mean BPP was slightly lower among labor augmented compared to nonaugmented and with an increasing difference with increasing parity. However, the differences were small and could not be considered of any clinical relevance. Furthermore, the sibling analyses suggested little confounding by familial factors.

An epidemiological, developmental and clinical overview of cannabis use during pregnancy

The objective of the current narrative literature review is to provide an epidemiological, developmental and clinical overview on cannabis use during pregnancy. Cannabis use in pregnancy poses major health concerns for pregnant mothers and their developing children. Although studies on the short- and long-term consequences of prenatal cannabis exposure are increasing, findings have been inconsistent or difficult to interpret due to methodological issues. Thus, consolidating these findings into clinical recommendations based on the mixed studies in the literature remains a challenge. Synthesizing the available observational studies is also difficult, because some of the published studies have substantial methodological weaknesses. Improving observational studies will be an important step toward understanding the extent to which prenatal exposure to cannabis influences neurodevelopment in the offspring. Therefore, further research on prenatal cannabis exposure and the long-term consequences to offspring health in representative samples are needed to guide and improve clinical care for pregnant women and their children. Future research should also investigate the role of policies on prenatal cannabis use.

Increased Risk for Neurodevelopmental Disorders in Children With Orofacial Clefts

OBJECTIVE

Children with orofacial clefts (OFC) may have an increased risk of poor mental health. This study aimed to investigate the risk of psychiatric diagnoses in individuals with OFC, stratified by cleft type.

METHOD

A nationwide register-based cohort of all individuals born with nonsyndromic OFC in Sweden between 1973 and 2012 (n = 7,842) was compared to a matched cohort (n = 78,409) as well as to their unaffected siblings (n = 9,637). The risk of psychiatric diagnoses, suicide attempts, and suicides was examined by crude and adjusted Cox regression models. Effect modification by sex was investigated with interaction terms in the models.

RESULTS

Children with cleft lip (CL) had a significantly higher risk of any psychiatric disorder, intellectual disability, and language disorders; children with cleft lip and palate (CLP) had, in addition, an increased risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Children with cleft palate only (CPO) had risk increases for the same diagnoses as children with CL and CLP, but with higher hazard ratios, and also for psychotic disorders, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and other behavioral or emotional disorders in childhood. Sex stratification indicated higher risk increases among females in CL and CLP but not in CPO. Siblings without OFC were less likely to be diagnosed with any psychiatric disorder, intellectual disability, language disorder, ASD, or ADHD compared to their siblings with OFC.

CONCLUSION

Children with nonsyndromic clefts had a significantly higher risk of neurodevelopmental disorders. This risk is unlikely to be explained by familial influences such as inherited genetic or shared environmental factors.

Association of maternal exposure to terror attacks during pregnancy and the risk of schizophrenia in the offspring: A population-based study

This study tested the hypothesis that maternal exposure to terror attacks during pregnancy is associated with the risk of schizophrenia in the offspring. A population-based study was conducted of Israeli children born between 1975 and 1995 and that were registered in the Ministry of Interior and followed up in the Ministry of Health from birth to 2015 for the risk of schizophrenia (N = 201,048). The association between maternal exposure to terror attacks during pregnancy and the risk of schizophrenia in the offspring was quantified with relative risks (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) fitting Cox regression models unadjusted and adjusted for confounders. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. The RR of schizophrenia in offspring of mothers exposed to terror attacks during pregnancy compared to offspring of mothers not exposed during pregnancy were estimated unadjusted (RR = 2.51, 95% CI, 1.33, 4.74) and adjusted (RR = 2.53, 95% CI, 1.63, 3.91). In the sensitivity analyses adjusted RRs were estimated using a sibling-based study design (2.85, 95% CI: 1.31-6.21) and propensity matching (2.45, 95% CI: 1.58-3.81). Maternal exposure to terror attacks during pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia in the offspring, possibly indicating a critical period of neurodevelopment that is sensitive to the stress of terror attacks and affected by epigenetic modifications.

Association Between Autism Spectrum Disorders With or Without Intellectual Disability and Depression in Young Adulthood

IMPORTANCE

Depression is a frequently occurring mental disorder and may be common in adults with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), but there is a lack of longitudinal population-based studies examining this association. Whether any increased risk of depression in ASD has a shared familial basis and whether it differs by co-occurring intellectual disability is not well known.

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether individuals with ASD are more likely to be diagnosed as having depression in adulthood than the general population and their nonautistic siblings and to investigate whether these risks differ by the presence or absence of intellectual disability.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based cohort study with a nested sibling comparison. The Stockholm Youth Cohort is a total population record linkage study that includes all children and young people (age range, 0-17 years) who were ever resident in Stockholm County, Sweden, between January 2001 and December 2011 (n = 735 096). Data analysis was conducted between January 5 and November 30, 2017, in Stockholm County, Sweden.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Clinical diagnosis of depressive disorders was identified using the Stockholm County Adult Psychiatric Outpatient Register and the Swedish National Patient Register.

RESULTS

Participants were 223 842 individuals followed up to age 27 years by 2011, of whom 4073 had diagnosed ASD (mean [SD] age, 21.5 [2.7] years; 65.9% male; 2927 without intellectual disability and 1146 with intellectual disability) and 219 769 had no ASD (mean [SD] age, 22.1 [2.8] years; 50.9% male). By age 27 years, 19.8% (n = 808) of individuals diagnosed having ASD had a diagnosis of depression compared with 6.0% (n = 13 114) of the general population (adjusted relative risk [RR], 3.64; 95% CI, 3.41-3.88). The risk of a depression diagnosis was higher in ASD without intellectual disability (adjusted RR, 4.28; 95% CI, 4.00-4.58) than in ASD with intellectual disability (adjusted RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.51-2.17). Nonautistic full-siblings (adjusted RR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.23-1.53) and half-siblings (adjusted RR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.23-1.64) of individuals with ASD also had a higher risk of depression than the general population. Compared with their nonautistic full-siblings, individuals with ASD had more than a 2-fold risk of a depression diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.91-3.27) in young adulthood.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

According to this study's results, ASD, particularly ASD without intellectual disability, is associated with depression by young adulthood compared with the general population. It appears that this association is unlikely to be explained by shared familial liability. Future research to identify modifiable pathways between ASD and depression may assist in the development of preventive interventions.

Identifying the contribution of prenatal risk factors to offspring development and psychopathology: What designs to use and a critique of literature on maternal smoking and stress in pregnancy

Identifying prenatal environmental factors that have genuinely causal effects on psychopathology is an important research priority, but it is crucial to select an appropriate research design. In this review we explain why and what sorts of designs are preferable and focus on genetically informed/sensitive designs. In the field of developmental psychopathology, causal inferences about prenatal risks have not always been based on evidence generated from appropriate designs. We focus on reported links between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder or conduct problems. Undertaking a systematic review of findings from genetically informed designs and “triangulating” evidence from studies with different patterns of bias, we conclude that at present findings suggest it is unlikely that there is a substantial causal effect of maternal smoking in pregnancy on either attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder or conduct problems. In contrast, for offspring birth weight (which serves as a positive control) findings strongly support a negative causal effect of maternal smoking in pregnancy. For maternal pregnancy stress, too few studies use genetically sensitive designs to draw firm conclusions, but continuity with postnatal stress seems important. We highlight the importance of moving beyond observational designs, for systematic evaluation of the breadth of available evidence and choosing innovative designs. We conclude that a broader set of prenatal risk factors should be examined, including those relevant in low- and middle-income contexts. Future directions include a greater use of molecular genetically informed designs such as Mendelian randomization to test causal hypotheses about prenatal exposure and offspring outcome.

Prenatal and early-life antibiotic use and risk of childhood asthma: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although associations between antibiotic exposure in infants and asthma development are reported, few studies have examined the effects of prenatal exposure to antibiotics. We evaluated this association considering the antibiotic types using a large-scale claim database in Japan.

METHODS

This retrospective study using health insurance administrative claim data in Japan included children born between January 2005 and September 2014. We constructed 2 cohorts: initial cohort, with information on children's mothers, and sibling cohort, with at least one sibling. Cox proportional hazard regression and sibling-matched cohort analyses were performed to determine the association between exposure to antibiotics in utero or the first year of life and asthma development until age 6.

RESULTS

In the initial cohort, antibiotic exposure during the foetal period was associated with early asthma development (until age 3; HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.08-1.30). However, this association disappeared after 3 years. The association between antibiotic exposure in the first year of life and asthma was stronger in early (HR: 2.43, 95% CI: 2.20-2.69) than later (HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.11-1.36) life. In the sibling cohort, we observed positive associations between foetal exposure and asthma by adjusting for familial factors (HR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.05-1.72), which remained during the first year of life (HR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.27-2.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to antibiotics during the first year of life was associated with childhood asthma even after adjusting for familial factors. However, a weak association was observed between prenatal antibiotic exposure and asthma development.

Association of Gestational Age at Birth With Symptoms of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Children

Importance

Preterm birth is associated with an increased risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); however, it is unclear to what extent this association can be explained by shared genetic and environmental risk factors and whether gestational age at birth is similarly related to inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity and to the same extent in boys and girls.

Objectives

To investigate the association between gestational age at birth and symptoms of ADHD in preschool and school-age children after adjusting for unmeasured genetic and environmental risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this prospective, population-based cohort study, pregnant women were recruited from across Norway from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2008. Results of a conventional cohort design were compared with results from a sibling-comparison design (adjusting for genetic and environmental factors shared within families) using data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2017, through March 16, 2018.

Exposures

Analyses compared children and siblings discordant for gestational age group: early preterm (delivery at gestational weeks 22-33), late preterm (delivery at gestational weeks 34-36), early term (delivery at gestational weeks 37-38), delivery at gestational week 39, reference group (delivery at gestational week 40), delivery at gestational week 41, and late term (delivery after gestational week 41).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Maternally reported symptoms of ADHD in children at 5 years of age and symptoms of inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity at 8 years of age. Covariates included child and pregnancy characteristics associated with the week of delivery and the outcomes.

Results

A total of 113 227 children (55 187 [48.7%] female; 31 708 [28.0%] born at gestational week 40), including 33 081 siblings (16 014 female [48.4%]; 9705 [29.3%] born at gestational week 40), were included in the study. Children born early preterm were rated with more symptoms of ADHD, inattention, and hyperactivity/impulsivity than term-born children. After adjusting for unmeasured genetic and environmental factors, children born early preterm had a mean score that was 0.24 SD (95% CI, 0.14-0.34) higher on ADHD symptom tests, 0.33 SD (95% CI, 0.24-0.42) higher on inattention tests, and 0.23 SD (95% CI, 0.14-0.32) higher on hyperactivity/impulsivity tests compared with children born at gestational week 40. Sex moderated the association of gestational age with preschool ADHD symptoms, and the association appeared to be strongest among girls. Early preterm girls scored a mean of 0.8 SD (95% CI, 0.12-1.46; P = .02) higher compared with their term-born sisters.

Conclusions and Relevance

After accounting for unmeasured genetic and environmental factors, early preterm birth was associated with a higher level of ADHD symptoms in preschool children. Early premature birth was associated with inattentive but not hyperactive symptoms in 8-year-old children. This study demonstrates the importance of differentiating between inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity and stratifying on sex in the study of childhood ADHD.

Breastfeeding and the Developmental Origins of Asthma: Current Evidence, Possible Mechanisms, and Future Research Priorities

Breastfeeding has many established health benefits, but its impact on asthma development is uncertain. Breastfeeding appears to have a positive and dose-dependent impact on respiratory health, particularly during early childhood and in high-risk populations; however, the strength and causality of these associations are unclear. It is challenging to compare results across studies due to methodological differences and biological variation. Resolving these inconsistencies will require well-designed, prospective studies that accurately capture asthma diagnoses and infant feeding exposures (including breastfeeding duration, exclusivity, and method of feeding), account for key confounders, evaluate dose effects, and consider effect modification and reverse causality. Mechanistic studies examining human milk bioactives and their impact on lung health and asthma development are beginning to emerge, and these will be important in establishing the causality and mechanistic basis of the observed associations between breastfeeding and asthma. In this review, we summarize current evidence on this topic, identify possible reasons for disagreement across studies, discuss potential mechanisms for a causal association, and provide recommendations for future research.

Associations between birth characteristics and age-related cognitive impairment and dementia: A registry-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is evidence for long-lasting effects of birth characteristics on cognitive ability in childhood and adulthood. Further, low cognitive ability throughout the lifetime has been linked to age-related cognitive decline and dementia risk. However, little is known about the effects of birth characteristics on cognitive dysfunction late in life. Here we explore potential associations between birth characteristics (weight, head circumference, length, and gestational age), adjusted and not adjusted for gestational age, and cognitive impairment and dementia late in life.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data from twins in the Swedish Twin Registry born 1926-1960 were merged with information from the Swedish birth, patient, and cause of death registries, resulting in a sample of 35,191 individuals. A subsample of 4,000 twins aged 65 years and older also participated in a telephone cognitive screening in 1998-2002. Associations of birth characteristics with registry-based dementia diagnoses and on telephone-assessed cognitive impairment were investigated in the full sample and subsample, respectively. The full sample contained 907 (2.6%) individuals with a dementia diagnosis (an incidence rate of 5.9% per 100,000 person-years), 803 (2.4%) individuals born small for gestational age, and 929 (2.8%) individuals born with a small head for gestational age. The subsample contained 569 (14.2%) individuals with cognitive impairment. Low birth weight for gestational age and being born with a small head for gestational age were significant risk factors for cognitive dysfunction late in life, with an up to 2-fold risk increase (p < 0.001) compared to infants with normal growth and head size, even after controlling for familial factors, childhood socioeconomic status, and education in adulthood. In line with this, each additional 100 g birth weight and each additional millimeter head circumference significantly reduced the risk for dementia (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 0.99, p = 0.004) and cognitive impairment (odds ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.00, p = 0.004), respectively. Within-pair analyses of identical twins, though hampered by small sample size, suggested that the observed associations between birth characteristics and dementia are likely not due to underlying shared genetic or environmental etiology. A limitation of the present study is that registry-based dementia diagnoses likely miss some of the true dementia cases in the population. Further, a more precise measure of cognitive reserve early in life as well as a date of onset for the cognitive impairment measure in the subsample would have been favorable.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that infants of smaller birth size (i.e., low birth weight or small head circumference adjusted and unadjusted for gestational age) have a significantly higher risk of age-related cognitive dysfunction compared to those with normal growth, highlighting the importance of closely monitoring the cognitive development of such infants and evaluating the potential of early life interventions targeted at enhancing cognitive reserve.

Neurocognitive Functioning in Patients with 22q11.2 Deletion Syndrome: A Meta-Analytic Review

The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) is a known risk factor for development of schizophrenia and is characterized by a complex neuropsychological profile. To date, a quantitative meta-analysis examining cognitive functioning in 22q11.2DS has not been conducted. A systematic review of cross-sectional studies comparing neuropsychological performance of individuals with 22q11.2DS with age-matched healthy typically developing and sibling comparison subjects was carried out. Potential moderators were analyzed. Analyses included 43 articles (282 effects) that met inclusion criteria. Very large and heterogeneous effects were seen for global cognition (d = - 1.21) and in specific neuropsychological domains (intellectual functioning, achievement, and executive function; d range = - 0.51 to - 2.43). Moderator analysis revealed a significant role for type of healthy comparison group used (typically developing or siblings), demographics (age, sex) and clinical factors (externalizing behavior). Results revealed significant differences between pediatric and adult samples, with isolated analysis within the pediatric sample yielding large effects in several neuropsychological domains (intellectual functioning, achievement, visual memory; d range = - 0.56 to - 2.50). Large cognitive deficits in intellectual functioning and specific neuropsychological variables in individuals with 22q11.2DS represent a robust finding, but these deficits are influenced by several factors, including type of comparison group utilized, age, sex, and clinical status. These findings highlight the clinical relevance of characterizing cognitive functioning in 22q11.2DS and the importance of considering demographic and clinical moderators in future analyses.

Artistic creativity and risk for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and unipolar depression: a Swedish population-based case-control study and sib-pair analysis

BACKGROUND

Many studies have addressed the question of whether mental disorder is associated with creativity, but high-quality epidemiological evidence has been lacking.AimsTo test for an association between studying a creative subject at high school or university and later mental disorder.

METHOD

In a case-control study using linked population-based registries in Sweden (N = 4 454 763), we tested for associations between tertiary education in an artistic field and hospital admission with schizophrenia (N = 20 333), bipolar disorder (N = 28 293) or unipolar depression (N = 148 365).

RESULTS

Compared with the general population, individuals with an artistic education had increased odds of developing schizophrenia (odds ratio = 1.90, 95% CI = [1.69; 2.12]) bipolar disorder (odds ratio = 1.62 [1.50; 1.75]) and unipolar depression (odds ratio = 1.39 [1.34; 1.44]. The results remained after adjustment for IQ and other potential confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

Students of artistic subjects at university are at increased risk of developing schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and unipolar depression in adulthood.Declaration of interestNone.

Association of Maternal Psychosocial Stress With Increased Risk of Asthma Development in Offspring

Prenatal maternal psychosocial stress might influence the development of childhood asthma. Evaluating paternal psychosocial stress and conducting a sibling comparison could provide further insight into the role of unmeasured confounding. We examined the associations of parental psychosocial stress during and after pregnancy with asthma at age 7 years in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (n = 63,626; children born in 2000-2007). Measures of psychosocial stress included lifetime major depressive symptoms, current anxiety/depression symptoms, use of antidepressants, anxiolytics, and/or hypnotics, life satisfaction, relationship satisfaction, work stress, and social support. Childhood asthma was associated with maternal lifetime major depressive symptoms (adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.30), in addition to symptoms of anxiety/depression during pregnancy (aRR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.29) and 6 months after delivery (aRR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.28). Maternal negative life events during pregnancy (aRR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.13) and 6 months after delivery (aRR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.18) were also associated with asthma. These associations were not replicated when evaluated within sibling groups. There were no associations with paternal psychosocial stress. In conclusion, maternal anxiety/depression and negative life events were associated with offspring asthma, but this might be explained by unmeasured maternal background characteristics that remain stable across deliveries.

Perinatal risk factors in Tourette's and chronic tic disorders: a total population sibling comparison study

Adverse perinatal events may increase the risk of Tourette's and chronic tic disorders (TD/CTD), but previous studies have been unable to control for unmeasured environmental and genetic confounding. We aimed to prospectively investigate potential perinatal risk factors for TD/CTD, taking unmeasured factors shared between full siblings into account. A population-based birth cohort, consisting of all singletons born in Sweden in 1973-2003, was followed until December 2013. A total of 3 026 861 individuals were identified, 5597 of which had a registered TD/CTD diagnosis. We then studied differentially exposed full siblings from 947 942 families; of these, 3563 families included siblings that were discordant for TD/CTD. Perinatal data were collected from the Medical Birth Register and TD/CTD diagnoses were collected from the National Patient Register, using a previously validated algorithm. In the fully adjusted models, impaired fetal growth, preterm birth, breech presentation and cesarean section were associated with a higher risk of TD/CTD, largely independent from shared family confounders and measured covariates. Maternal smoking during pregnancy was associated with risk of TD/CTD in a dose-response manner but the association was no longer statistically significant in the sibling comparison models or after the exclusion of comorbid attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. A dose-response relationship between the number of adverse perinatal events and increased risk for TD/CTD was also observed, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33-1.50) for one event to 2.42 (95% CI: 1.65-3.53) for five or more events. These results pave the way for future gene by environment interaction and epigenetic studies in TD/CTD.

Gender Differences in Employment Among People With Disabilities in China

The gender-specific pattern in employment among people with disabilities in China is unclear. This study examines gender differences among people with disabilities in China’s job market using multilevel models. The findings suggest that there are statistically significant gender differences in employment among people with disabilities. It is more likely for men with disabilities to be employed than for women with disabilities. Other individual- and household-level factors including disability type, severity of disability, and household income are also significantly related to the employment of people with disabilities. Effects of these factors on employment are similar among men and women with disabilities, except that household income and being married show stronger relationships with employment among men with disabilities than women. Policy effort should be made not only to advance the employment opportunities of people with disabilities but also to promote gender equality in employment.

Parental age and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)

Background

Previous studies have suggested that young mothers more often have children with ADHD. We used sibling comparisons to examine the nature of this association and to investigate if this association is explained by early environment or genetic and socioeconomic factors.

Methods

A large population-based cohort including all singletons born in Denmark from 1 January 1991 through 31 December 2005 was followed from birth until 30 April 2011. Data were available for 94% ( N  = 943 785) of the population. Offspring ADHD was identified by an ICD-10 diagnosis of Hyperkinetic Disorder (HKD). We used sibling-matched Cox regression to control for genetic and socioeconomic factors.

Results

In the population cohort we found that children born by parents aged 20 years or younger had more than twice the risk of being diagnosed with ADHD compared with children with parents between 26 and 30 years of age. When comparing full siblings the associations were attenuated, but we found a trend of increased risk of ADHD with decreasing maternal age, which was not seen for paternal age.

Conclusions

Sibling comparisons suggested that the associations between both maternal and paternal age and ADHD are partly explained by common genetic and socioeconomic factors. The trend of increased risk of ADHD with decreasing maternal age, but not with paternal age, may be linked to pregnancy or early-life environmental factors. Even though only a smaller part of the association can be attributed to environmental factors, there is a public health interest to support young parents through their first years of parenthood.

Gestational age at birth and academic performance: population-based cohort study

Background

Numerous studies suggest pre-term birth is associated with cognitive deficit. However, less is known about cognitive outcomes following post-term birth, or the influence of weight variations within term or post-term populations. We examined associations between gestational age (GA) and school performance, by weight-for-GA, focusing on extremely pre- and post-term births.

Method

Record linkage study of Swedish children born 1973-94 ( n =  2 008 102) with a nested sibling comparison ( n =  439 629). We used restricted cubic regression splines to examine associations between GA and the grade achieved on leaving secondary education, comparing siblings to allow stronger causal inference with regard to associations between GA and school performance.

Results

Grade averages of both pre- and post-term children were below those of full-term counterparts and lower for those born small-for-GA. The adjusted grades of extremely pre-term children (at 24 completed weeks), while improving in later study periods, were lower by 0.43 standard deviations (95% confidence interval 0.38-0.49), corresponding with a 21-point reduction (19 to 24) on a 240-point scale. Reductions for extremely post-term children (at 45 completed weeks) were lesser [-0.15 standard deviation (-0.17 to -0.13) or -8 points (-9 to -7)]. Among matched siblings, we observed weaker residual effects of pre-term and post-term GA on school performance.

Conclusions

There may be independent effects of fetal maturation and fetal growth on school performance. Associations among matched siblings, although attenuated, remained consistent with causal effects of pre- and post-term birth on school performance.

Air Toxics in Relation to Autism Diagnosis, Phenotype, and Severity in a U.S. Family-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported associations of perinatal exposure to air toxics, including some metals and volatile organic compounds, with autism spectrum disorder (ASD).

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to further explore associations of perinatal air toxics with ASD and associated quantitative traits in high-risk multiplex families.

METHODS

We included participants of a U.S. family-based study [the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE)] who were born between 1994 and 2007 and had address information. We assessed associations between average annual concentrations at birth for each of 155 air toxics from the U.S. EPA emissions-based National-scale Air Toxics Assessment and a) ASD diagnosis (1,540 cases and 477 controls); b) a continuous measure of autism-related traits, the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS, among 1,272 cases and controls); and c) a measure of autism severity, the Calibrated Severity Score (among 1,380 cases). In addition to the individual's air toxic level, mixed models (clustering on family) included the family mean air toxic level, birth year, and census covariates, with consideration of the false discovery rate.

RESULTS

ASD diagnosis was positively associated with propionaldehyde, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), bromoform, 1,4-dioxane, dibenzofurans, and glycol ethers and was inversely associated with 1,4-dichlorobenzene, 4,4'-methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), benzidine, and ethyl carbamate (urethane). These associations were robust to adjustment in two-pollutant models. Autism severity was associated positively with carbon disulfide and chlorobenzene, and negatively with 1,4-dichlorobenzene. There were no associations with the SRS.

CONCLUSIONS

Some air toxics were associated with ASD risk and severity, including some traffic-related air pollutants and newly-reported associations, but other previously reported associations with metals and volatile organic compounds were not reproducible. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1867.

Associations between childhood ADHD, gender, and adolescent alcohol and marijuana involvement: A causally informative design

BACKGROUND

We report whether the etiology underlying associations of childhood ADHD with adolescent alcohol and marijuana involvement is consistent with causal relationships or shared predispositions, and whether it differs by gender.

METHODS

In three population-based twin samples (N = 3762; 64% monozygotic), including one oversampling females with ADHD, regressions were conducted with childhood inattentive or hyperactive-impulsive symptoms predicting alcohol and marijuana outcomes by age 17. To determine whether ADHD effects were consistent with causality, twin difference analyses divided effects into those shared between twins in the pair and those differing within pairs.

RESULTS

Adolescents with more severe childhood ADHD were more likely to initiate alcohol and marijuana use earlier, escalate to frequent or heavy use, and develop symptoms. While risks were similar across genders, females with more hyperactivity-impulsivity had higher alcohol consumption and progressed further toward daily marijuana use than did males. Monozygotic twins with more severe ADHD than their co-twins did not differ significantly on alcohol or marijuana outcomes, however, suggesting a non-causal relationship. When co-occurring use of other substances and conduct/oppositional defiant disorders were considered, hyperactivity-impulsivity remained significantly associated with both substances, as did inattention with marijuana, but not alcohol.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood ADHD predicts when alcohol and marijuana use are initiated and how quickly use escalates. Shared familial environment and genetics, rather than causal influences, primarily account for these associations. Stronger relationships between hyperactivity-impulsivity and heavy drinking/frequent marijuana use among adolescent females than males, as well as the greater salience of inattention for marijuana, merit further investigation.

Neurodevelopmental problems at 18 months among children exposed to paracetamol in utero: a propensity score matched cohort study

Background

Previous studies showed that children exposed to paracetamol during fetal life might have an increased risk of neurodevelopmental problems. Since paracetamol is one of the most commonly used medications during pregnancy, even small increases in the risk of neurodevelopmental problems may have considerable implications for public health.

Methods

Using data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study, we applied propensity score (PS) matching to examine associations between prenatal paracetamol exposure and neurodevelopmental problems among children at 18 months of age. Paracetamol use was classified into short-term (< 28 days) and long-term (≥ 28 days) of exposure.

Results

Of the 51 200 pregnancies included in our study, 40.5% of mothers ( n  = 20 749) used paracetamol at least once during pregnancy. In the PS-matched analyses, long-term paracetamol exposure during pregnancy was associated with communication problems [odds ratio (OR): 1.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98-1.95) and delayed motor milestone attainment (OR: 1.35, 95% CI 1.07-1.70). We did not observe increased risks after short-term exposure. Sensitivity analyses for several indications showed similar effects as the PS-matched analyses, suggesting no confounding by indication.

Conclusion

Long-term exposure to paracetamol in utero was associated with modestly increased risks of motor milestone delay and impaired communication skills among children at 18 months. Caution is warranted when considering long-term use of paracetamol during pregnancy; however, women with severe pain conditions should not be deprived of appropriate pharmacotherapy.

Age at Menarche and Cardiometabolic Health: A Sibling Analysis in the Scottish Family Health Study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies of age at menarche and cardiometabolic health report conflicting findings, and only a few could account for childhood characteristics. We aimed to estimate the associations of age at menarche with cardiovascular risk factors in unrelated women and within sister groups, under the assumption that within-sibship estimates will be better adjusted for shared genetics and early life environment.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Our study included 7770 women, from 5984 sibships, participating in the GS:SFHS (Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study). We used fixed- and between-effects linear regression to estimate the associations within sister groups and between unrelated individuals, respectively. Within sibships, the mean difference between sisters with early menarche (≤11 years) and sisters with menarche at 12 to 13 years was 1.73 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.41 to 3.86) for systolic blood pressure, 1.26 mm Hg (95% CI, -0.02 to 2.55) for diastolic blood pressure, -0.06 nmol/L (95% CI, -0.11 to -0.02) for high-density lipoprotein, 0.20 nmol/L (95% CI, 0.08-0.32) for non-high-density lipoprotein, -0.34% (95% CI, -1.98 to 1.30) for glucose, 1.60 kg/m² (95% CI, 0.92-2.28) for body mass index, and 2.75 cm (95% CI, 1.06-4.44) for waist circumference. There was weak evidence of associations between later menarche (14-15 or ≥16 years) and lower body mass index, waist circumference, and blood pressure. We found no strong evidence that estimates from within- and between-sibship analyses differed (all P values >0.1). The associations with other cardiovascular risk factors were attenuated after adjustment for adult body mass index.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that confounding by shared familial characteristics is unlikely to be a major driver of the association between early menarche and adverse cardiometabolic health but do not exclude confounding by individual-level characteristics.

Variation in reproductive outcomes of women with histories of bulimia nervosa, anorexia nervosa, or eating disorder not otherwise specified relative to the general population and closest-aged sisters

OBJECTIVE

This study seeks to examine the long-term reproductive consequences of eating disorders (ED), to assess variation in reproductive outcomes by ED type, and to examine reproductive differences between women with previous ED diagnosis and their discordant sisters.

METHOD

Using a sample of women with previous ED diagnosis generated by the Utah Population Database, this study compares the fecundity (parity) and age at first birth of women by ED subtype (bulimia nervosa [BN], anorexia nervosa [AN], and ED not otherwise specified [EDNOS]) (n = 1,579). We also employed general population match case-control, and discordant sibling pair analyses, to estimate the magnitude of association between EDs and reproductive outcomes.

RESULTS

Women previously diagnosed with AN or EDNOS experienced delayed first birth (HRR = 0.33, HRR = 0.34, respectively) and lower parity (IRR = 0.19, IRR = 0.22, respectively) relative to BN (p < .05), the general population (p < .05), and closest-aged sisters (p < .05). Women previously diagnosed with BN experienced more moderate reductions and delays to their reproduction, and had similar reproductive outcomes as their discordant sisters.

DISCUSSION

Clinicians should consider ED type and family fertility histories when addressing the long-term reproductive health needs of women with prior AN, BN, or EDNOS diagnosis. Women previously diagnosed with AN or EDNOS likely experience the greatest reductions and delays in reproduction across their lifespan. Reproductive health screenings may be especially critical for the wellbeing of women with a history of AN or EDNOS.

Re-examining the link between prenatal maternal anxiety and child emotional difficulties, using a sibling design

Background

Prenatal exposure to maternal anxiety has been associated with child emotional difficulties in a number of epidemiological studies. One key concern, however, is that this link is vulnerable to confounding by pleiotropic genes or environmental family factors.

Methods

Data on 82 383 mothers and children from the population-based Mother and Child Cohort Study and data on 21 980 siblings were used in this study. Mothers filled out questionnaires for each unique pregnancy, for infant difficulties at 6 months and for emotional difficulties at 36 months. The link between prenatal maternal anxiety and child difficulties were examined using logistic regression analyses and multiple linear regression analyses for the full study sample and the sibling sample.

Results

In the conventional full-cohort analyses, prenatal exposure to maternal anxiety was associated with child difficulties at both 6 months [odds ratio (OR) = 2.1 (1.94-2.27)] and 36 months [OR = 2.72 (2.47-2.99)]. The findings were essentially the same whether we examined difficulties at 6 months or at 36 months. However, these associations were no longer present once we controlled for potential social and genetic confounders in the sibling comparison analyses, either at 6 months [OR = 1.32 (0.91-1.90)] or at 36 months [OR = 1.28 (0.63-2.60)]. Findings from multiple regression analyses with continuous measures were essentially the same.

Conclusions

Our finding lends little support for there being an independent prenatal effect on child emotional difficulties; rather, our findings suggest that the link between prenatal maternal anxiety and child difficulties could be confounded by pleiotropic genes or environmental family factors.

Extending the Case-Control Design to Longitudinal Data: Stratified Sampling Based on Repeated Binary Outcomes

We detail study design options that generalize case-control sampling when longitudinal outcome data are already collected as part of a primary cohort study, but new exposure data must be retrospectively processed for a secondary analysis. Furthermore, we assume that cost will limit the size of the subsample that can be evaluated. We describe a novel class of stratified outcome-dependent sampling designs for longitudinal binary response data where distinct strata are created for subjects who never, sometimes, and always experienced the event of interest during longitudinal follow-up. Individual designs within this class are differentiated by the stratum-specific sampling probabilities. We show for parameters associated with time-varying exposures, subjects who experience the event/outcome at some but not at all of the follow-up times (i.e., those who exhibit response variation) are highly informative. If the time-varying exposure varies exclusively within individuals (i.e., intraclass correlation coefficient is 0), then sampling all subjects with response variability can yield highly precise parameter estimates even when compared with an analysis of the original cohort. The flexibility of the designs and analysis procedures also permits estimation of parameters that correspond to time-fixed covariates, and we show that with an imputation-based estimation procedure, baseline covariate associations can be estimated with very high precision irrespective of the design. We demonstrate features of the designs and analysis procedures via a plasmode simulation using data from the Lung Health Study.

Maternal Smoking and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Offspring: A Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common neurodevelopmental disorder in childhood. Exploring the risk factors for ADHD is helpful in preventing ADHD.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and the occurrence of ADHD in offspring.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception to May 2017 for studies.

STUDY SELECTION

Cohort or case-control studies in which the association between maternal smoking and ADHD in offspring were investigated were eligible if they included odds ratios (ORs), hazard ratios, or risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

DATA EXTRACTION

Two investigators independently extracted data on definition of exposure and outcome, number of cases and total sample population, and potential confounders adjusted. Any dose-relationship data for smoking and ADHD risk were also extracted.

RESULTS

Fifteen cohort studies and 5 case-control studies with 50 044 cases and 2 998 059 participants were included. Smoking during pregnancy increased the risk of offspring ADHD (OR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.45-1.76). The risk of ADHD was greater for children whose mothers were heavy smokers (OR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.51-2.02) than for those mothers were light smokers (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.40-1.70).

LIMITATIONS

The limitations of our study included different assessment tools of ADHD and a lack of objective biological measures for maternal smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

With our meta-analysis, we provide evidence for an association between maternal smoking and offspring ADHD but do not solve the causality issues concerning potential confounding by other risk factors. More high-quality studies are needed to establish whether the association with smoking is causal.

Increased Risk of Smoking in Female Adolescents Who Had Childhood ADHD

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the effects of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms, both inattention and hyperactivity-impulsivity, on the development of smoking in male and female adolescents.

METHOD

Twin difference methods were used to control for shared genetic and environmental confounders in three population-based, same-sex twin samples (N=3,762; 64% monozygotic). One cohort oversampled female adolescents with ADHD beginning in childhood. Regressions of childhood inattentive and hyperactive-impulsive symptoms were conducted to predict smoking outcomes by age 17. ADHD effects were divided into those shared between twins in the pair and those nonshared, or different within pairs.

RESULTS

Adolescents who had more severe ADHD symptoms as children were more likely to initiate smoking and to start smoking younger. The association of ADHD symptoms with daily smoking, number of cigarettes per day, and nicotine dependence was greater in females than in males. Monozygotic female twins with greater attentional problems than their co-twins had greater nicotine involvement, consistent with possible causal influence. These effects remained when co-occurring externalizing behaviors and stimulant medication were considered. Hyperactivity-impulsivity, while also more strongly related to smoking for female adolescents, appeared primarily noncausal.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking initiation and escalation are affected differentially by ADHD subtype and gender. The association of inattention with smoking in female adolescents may be causal, whereas hyperactivity-impulsivity appears to act indirectly, through shared propensities for both ADHD and smoking.

Gestational age at birth and risk of intellectual disability without a common genetic cause

Preterm birth is linked to intellectual disability and there is evidence to suggest post-term birth may also incur risk. However, these associations have not yet been investigated in the absence of common genetic causes of intellectual disability, where risk associated with late delivery may be preventable. We therefore aimed to examine risk of intellectual disability without a common genetic cause across the entire range of gestation, using a matched-sibling design to account for unmeasured confounding by shared familial factors. We conducted a population-based retrospective study using data from the Stockholm Youth Cohort (n = 499,621) and examined associations in a nested cohort of matched outcome-discordant siblings (n = 8034). Risk of intellectual disability was greatest among those born extremely early (adjusted OR_{24 weeks} = 14.54 [95% CI 11.46-18.44]), lessening with advancing gestational age toward term (aOR_{32 weeks} = 3.59 [3.22-4.01]; aOR_37weeks = 1.50 [1.38-1.63]); aOR_{38 weeks} = 1.26 [1.16-1.37]; aOR₃₉ weeks = 1.10 [1.04-1.17]) and increasing with advancing gestational age post-term (aOR_{42 weeks} = 1.16 [1.08-1.25]; aOR_{43 weeks} = 1.41 [1.21-1.64]; aOR_{44 weeks} = 1.71 [1.34-2.18]; aOR_{45 weeks} = 2.07 [1.47-2.92]). Associations persisted in a cohort of matched siblings suggesting they were robust against confounding by shared familial traits. Risk of intellectual disability was greatest among children showing evidence of fetal growth restriction, especially when birth occurred before or after term. Birth at non-optimal gestational duration may be linked causally with greater risk of intellectual disability. The mechanisms underlying these associations need to be elucidated as they are relevant to clinical practice concerning elective delivery around term and mitigation of risk in post-term children.

Family of origin and educational inequalities in mortality: Results from 1.7 million Swedish siblings

Circumstances in the family of origin have short- and long-term consequences for people's health. Family background also influences educational achievements - achievements that are clearly linked to various health outcomes. Utilizing population register data, we compared Swedish siblings with different levels of education (1,732,119 individuals within 662,095 sibships) born between 1934 and 1959 and followed their death records until the end of 2012 (167,932 deaths). The educational gradient in all-cause mortality was lower within sibships than in the population as a whole, an attenuation that was strongest at younger ages (< 50 years of age) and for those with a working class or farmer background. There was substantial variation across different causes of death with clear reductions in educational inequalities in, e.g., lung cancer and diabetes, when introducing shared family factors, which may indicate that part of the association can be ascribed to circumstances that siblings have in common. In contrast, educational inequalities in suicide and, for women, other mental disorders increased when adjusting for factors shared by siblings. The vast variation in the role of childhood conditions for the education-mortality association may help us to further understand the interplay between family background, education, and mortality. The increase in the education gradient in suicide when siblings are compared may point towards individually oriented explanations ('non-shared environment'), perhaps particularly in mental disorders, while shared family factors primarily seem to play a more important role in diseases in which health behaviors are most significant.

Vanishing twin syndrome among ART singletons and pregnancy outcomes

STUDY QUESTION

Among babies born by ART, do singleton survivors of a vanishing twin have lower birth weight than other singletons?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Vanishing twin syndrome (VTS) was associated with lower birth weight among ART singletons; a sibship analysis indicated that the association was not confounded by maternal characteristics that remain stable between deliveries.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Previous studies indicate that ART singletons with VTS have increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, compared with other ART singletons. The potential contribution of unmeasured maternal background characteristics has been unclear.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION

This was a Norwegian population-based registry study, including 17 368 mothers with 20 410 ART singleton deliveries between January 1984 and December 2013.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The study population included 17 291 ART singletons without VTS, 638 ART singletons with VTS and 2418 ART singletons with uncertain vanishing twin status. We estimated differences in birth weight and gestational age comparing ART singletons with VTS first to all ART singletons without VTS, and subsequently to their ART siblings without VTS, using random- and fixed-effects linear regression, respectively. The corresponding comparisons for the associations with preterm birth and small for gestational age (SGA) were conducted using random-and fixed-effects logistic regression. The sibling analysis of preterm birth included 587 discordant siblings, while the sibling analysis of SGA included 674 discordant siblings.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

ART singletons with VTS had lower birth weight when compared to all ART singletons without VTS, with an adjusted mean difference (95% CI) of -116 g (-165, -67). When we compared ART singletons with VTS to their ART singletons sibling without VTS, the adjusted mean difference was -112 g (-209, -15). ART singletons with VTS also had increased risk of being born SGA, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% CI) of 1.48 (1.07, 2.03) compared to all ART singletons without VTS, and 2.79 (1.12, 6.91) in the sibship analyses. ART singletons with VTS were also more likely to be born preterm, although this difference did not reach statistical significance.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

We did not have information on maternal socio-economic status, but this factor is accounted for in the sibship analyses. We also had no information on whether fresh or frozen embryos were replaced.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The reduction in birth weight and increased risk of SGA in ART singletons with VTS may suggest the presence of harmful intrauterine factors with long-term health impact. While vanishing twins are not routinely observed in naturally conceived pregnancies, loss of a twin is potentially a risk factor for the surviving foetus in any pregnancy. This could be further explored in large samples of naturally conceived pregnancies with the necessary information.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The authors of this study are supported in part by the UK Medical Research Council, US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and the Norwegian Research Council. The authors have no conflicts of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Health-related quality of life in congenital heart disease surgery patients in Pakistan: protocol for a mixed-methods study

INTRODUCTION

Reduced health-related quality of life (HRQOL) has been reported in postoperative patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). However, there is a paucity of data from low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). Differences in sociodemographics and sociocultural contexts may influence HRQOL. This protocol paper describes a study exploring HRQOL in surgical patients with CHD from a tertiary hospital in Pakistan. The study findings will assist development of strategies to improve HRQOL in a resource-constrained context.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This prospective, concurrent triangulation, mixed-methods study aims to compare HRQOL of postsurgery patients with CHD with age-matched healthy siblings and to identify HRQOL predictors. A qualitative component aims to further understand HRQOL data by exploring the experiences related to CHD surgery for patients and parents. Participants include patients with CHD (a minimum of n~95) with at least 1-year postsurgery follow-up and no chromosomal abnormality, their parents and age-matched, healthy siblings. PedsQL 4.0 Generic Core Scales, PedsQL Cognitive Functioning Scale and PedsQL 3.0 Cardiac Module will measure HRQOL. Clinical/surgical data will be retrieved from patients' medical files. Student's t-test will be used to compare the difference in the means of HRQOL between CHD and siblings. Multiple regression will identify HRQOL predictors. A subsample of enrolled patients (n~20) and parents (n~20) from the quantitative arm will be engaged in semistructured qualitative interviews, which will be analysed using directed content analysis. Anticipated challenges include patient recruitment due to irregular follow-up compliance. Translation of data collection tools to the Urdu language and back-translation of interviews increases the study complexity.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been obtained from The Aga Khan University, Pakistan (3737-Ped-ERC-15). Study findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international conferences.

Making fair comparisons in pregnancy medication safety studies: An overview of advanced methods for confounding control

Understanding the safety of medication use during pregnancy relies on observational studies: However, confounding in observational studies poses a threat to the validity of estimates obtained from observational data. Newer methods, such as marginal structural models and propensity calibration, have emerged to deal with complex confounding problems, but these methods have seen limited uptake in the pregnancy medication literature. In this article, we provide an overview of newer advanced methods for confounding control and show how these methods are relevant for pregnancy medication safety studies.

Educational inequality in cardiovascular diseases: a sibling approach

AIMS

Educational inequality in diseases in the circulatory system (here termed cardiovascular disease) is well documented but may be confounded by early life factors. The aim of this observational study was to examine whether the associations between education and all cardiovascular diseases, ischaemic heart disease and stroke, respectively, were explained by family factors shared by siblings.

METHODS

The study population included all individuals born in Denmark between 1950 and 1979 who had at least one full sibling born in the same period. Using Cox regression, data were analysed in conventional cohort and within-sibship analyses in which the association was examined within siblings discordant on education. Assuming that attenuation of associations in the within-sibship as compared with the cohort analyses would indicate confounding from factors shared within families.

RESULTS

A lower educational status was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease and stroke. All associations attenuated in the within-sibship analyses, in particular in the analyses on ischaemic heart disease before age 45 years. For instance, in the cohort analyses, the hazard rate of ischaemic heart disease among women less than 45 years who had a primary school education was 94% (hazard ratio 1.94 (1.78-2.12) higher than among those with a vocational education, while it attenuated to 51% (hazard ratio 1.51 (1.34-1.71)) in the within-sibship analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Confounding from factors shared by siblings explained the associations between education and the cardiovascular disease outcomes but to varying degrees. This should be taken into account when planning interventions aimed at reducing educational inequalities in the development of cardiovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease and stroke.

Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Asthmatic Women: A Population-Based Family Design Study

BACKGROUND

Asthma is associated with several adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes. Familial factors may confound these associations.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the role of measured and unmeasured confounding by conducting a study that compared differentially exposed cousins and siblings from the same families.

METHODS

We retrieved data on adverse pregnancy outcomes, prescribed drugs, and physician-diagnosed asthma from nationwide registers for all women in Sweden with singleton births between 2001 and 2013. Logistic and linear regression estimated the association between maternal asthma and several outcomes in the whole population and within differently exposed pregnant relatives.

RESULTS

In total, 1,075,153 eligible pregnancies were included and 10.1% of the study population had asthma. We identified 475,200 cousin and 341,205 sister pregnancies. Women with asthma had increased risks for preeclampsia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.21), emergency cesarean section (aOR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.22-1.27), and having a child small for gestational age (aOR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.12-1.23). In the conditional regression analyses, after adjustment for familial factors, the associations remained: preeclampsia in cousins (aOR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.25) and siblings (aOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.38), emergency cesarean section in cousins (aOR, 1.28) and siblings (aOR, 1.21), and small for gestational age in cousins (aOR, 1.17) and siblings (aOR, 1.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Factors shared by siblings and cousins do not seem to explain the observed association between maternal asthma and adverse pregnancy outcomes. This implies that targeting the asthma disease will continue to be important in reducing risks for adverse outcomes in pregnancy.

Antenatal nutritional supplementation and autism spectrum disorders in the Stockholm youth cohort: population based cohort study

Objective To determine whether nutritional supplementation during pregnancy is associated with a reduced risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) with and without intellectual disability in offspring.Design Observational prospective cohort study using multivariable logistic regression, sibling controls, and propensity score matching.Setting Stockholm County, Sweden.Participants 273 107 mother-child pairs identified through population registers. The study sample was restricted to children who were aged 4 to 15 years by the end of follow-up on 31 December 2011 and were born between 1996 and 2007.Exposures Multivitamin, iron, and folic acid supplement use was reported at the first antenatal visit.Main outcome measure Diagnosis of ASD with and without intellectual disability in children determined from register data up to 31 December 2011.Results Prevalence of ASD with intellectual disability was 0.26% (158 cases in 61 934) in the maternal multivitamin use group and 0.48% (430 cases in 90 480) in the no nutritional supplementation use group. Maternal multivitamin use with or without additional iron or folic acid, or both was associated with lower odds of ASD with intellectual disability in the child compared with mothers who did not use multivitamins, iron, and folic acid (odds ratio 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.84). Similar estimates were found in propensity score matched (0.68, 0.54 to 0.86) and sibling control (0.77, 0.52 to 1.15) matched analyses, though the confidence interval for the latter association included 1.0 and was therefore not statistically significant. There was no consistent evidence that either iron or folic acid use were inversely associated with ASD prevalence.Conclusions Maternal multivitamin supplementation during pregnancy may be inversely associated with ASD with intellectual disability in offspring. Further scrutiny of maternal nutrition and its role in the cause of autism is recommended.

Maternal Smoking in Pregnancy and Offspring Depression: a cross cohort and negative control study

Previous reports suggest that offspring of mothers who smoke during pregnancy have greater risk of developing depression. However, it is unclear whether this is due to intrauterine effects. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) from the UK (N = 2,869), the Nord-Trøndelag health study (HUNT) from Norway (N = 15,493), the Pelotas 1982 Birth Cohort Study from Brazil (N = 2,626), and the Swedish Sibling Health Cohort (N = 258 sibling pairs), we compared associations of maternal smoking during pregnancy and mother’s partner’s smoking during pregnancy with offspring depression and performed a discordant sibling analysis. In meta-analysis, maternal smoking during pregnancy was associated with higher odds of offspring depression (OR 1.20, 95% CI:1.08,1.34), but mother’s partner’s smoking during pregnancy was not (OR 1.05, 95% CI:0.94,1.17). However, there was only weak statistical evidence that the odds ratios for maternal and mother’s partner’s smoking differed from each other (p = 0.08). There was no clear evidence for an association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring depression in the sibling analysis. Findings do not provide strong support for a causal role of maternal smoking during pregnancy in offspring depression, rather observed associations may reflect residual confounding relating to characteristics of parents who smoke.