Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets

Dietary change in high-income nations alone can lead to substantial double climate dividend

A dietary shift from animal-based foods to plant-based foods in high-income nations could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from direct agricultural production and increase carbon sequestration if resulting spared land was restored to its antecedent natural vegetation. We estimate this double effect by simulating the adoption of the EAT-Lancet planetary health diet by 54 high-income nations representing 68% of global gross domestic product and 17% of population. Our results show that such dietary change could reduce annual agricultural production emissions of high-income nations' diets by 61% while sequestering as much as 98.3 (55.6-143.7) GtCO₂ equivalent, equal to approximately 14 years of current global agricultural emissions until natural vegetation matures. This amount could potentially fulfil high-income nations' future sum of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) obligations under the principle of equal per capita CDR responsibilities. Linking land, food, climate and public health policy will be vital to harnessing the opportunities of a double climate dividend.

Spatial differentiation identification of influencing factors of agricultural carbon productivity at city level in Taihu lake basin, China

Improving carbon productivity is the main way to deal with climate change under China's targets for carbon emissions to peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. This study identified the spatial differentiation of influencing factors of agricultural carbon productivity at the city level in Taihu lake basin, and formed differentiated agricultural management strategies. The results show that: (1) Spatial differentiation of agricultural carbon productivity is obvious at city level. It can be divided into three echelons: the first echelon is Shanghai and Hangzhou (agricultural carbon productivity≥10,000 Yuan/t in 2019 with a growth rate ≥ 600% compared with 1992), the second echelon is Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou (9000 Yuan/t ≤ agricultural carbon productivity<10,000 Yuan/t in 2019 with 381% ≤ growth rate < 600% compared with 1992), and the third echelon is Zhenjiang, Huzhou and Jiaxing (agricultural carbon productivity<9000 Yuan/t in 2019 or a growth rate < 381% compared with 1992). (2) There is a synergetic evolution law between agricultural carbon productivity and agricultural economy, that is, agricultural economic development level is the first factor affecting agricultural carbon productivity, whether in the whole basin or in the city level. (3) There are significant differences in the influencing factors of agricultural carbon productivity at the city level. Finally, according to the spatial differentiation characteristics of influencing factors of agricultural carbon productivity at the city level in Taihu lake basin, we put forward different emphases of agricultural development in different cities.

Short- and long-term warming effects of methane may affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and benefits of low-meat diets

Methane’s short atmospheric life has important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture. Three different agricultural economic models are used to explore how short- and long-term warming effects of methane can affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and dietary transitions. Results show that the choice of a particular metric for methane’s warming potential is key to determine optimal mitigation options, with metrics based on shorter-term impacts leading to greater overall emission reduction. Also, the promotion of low-meat diets is more effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to carbon pricing when mitigation policies are based on metrics that reflect methane’s long-term behaviour. A combination of stringent mitigation measures and dietary changes could achieve substantial emission reduction levels, helping reverse the contribution of agriculture to global warming.

Examining the Environmental Impacts of the Dairy and Baby Food Industries: Are First-Food Systems a Crucial Missing Part of the Healthy and Sustainable Food Systems Agenda Now Underway?

Food systems are increasingly being understood as driving various health and ecological crises and their transformation is recognised as a key opportunity for planetary health. First-food systems represent an underexplored aspect of this transformation. Despite breastfeeding representing the optimal source of infant nutrition, use of commercial milk formula (CMF) is high and growing rapidly. In this review, we examine the impact of CMF use on planetary health, considering in particular its effects on climate change, water use and pollution and the consequences of these effects for human health. Milk is the main ingredient in the production of CMF, making the role of the dairy sector a key area of attention. We find that CMF use has twice the carbon footprint of breastfeeding, while 1 kg of CMF has a blue water footprint of 699 L; CMF has a significant and harmful environmental impact. Facilitation and protection of breastfeeding represents a key part of developing sustainable first-food systems and has huge potential benefits for maternal and child health.

Closing Research Investment Gaps for a Global Food Transformation

Recent calls for a global food transformation have centered on simultaneously improving human and environmental health, recognizing that food and nutrient diversity have declined over time while food systems have exacted a heavy climate and ecological toll. Grain legumes and coarse grain crops provide important human nutrition and environmental benefits, but the production and consumption of many of these crops remains relatively low compared to major commodities, such as maize, wheat, rice, and soy. Outstanding hurdles to scaling up these “minor commodity” crops include (among other things) their relatively lower yields, and lower farmer adoption, based partly on actual or perceived profitability and marketability. We hypothesize that these limitations are attributable in part to unequal funding for these crops' research and development (R&amp;D) both on a national and global scale. In the United States, we show that investment patterns for a snapshot of USDA-funded research grants from 2008 to 2019 consistently favor major commodity crops, which received 3 to 4.5 times more funding and 3 to 5 times as many grants than the minor commodity crop groups. This current USDA funding allocation poses a barrier to food system transformations. Achieving nutritious diets for planetary health requires more public agricultural investment toward minor commodity crops and increased collaboration between public health, nutrition, agriculture, and environmental sectors.

Safety evaluation of transgenic and genome-edited food animals

There is an urgent need to reform the regulation of transgenic and genome-edited food animals. Now is the time to simplify regulatory safety guidelines based on science before it is too late to have these animals in place to meet societal needs in coming decades.

Differences in Environmental Impact between Plant-Based Alternatives to Dairy and Dairy Products: A Systematic Literature Review

A large body of research suggests a more plant-based diet, including a switch to plant-based alternatives to dairy, is needed for lowering human-induced climate change as well as land and water use. With the help of a systematic literature review, we analyzed data from 21 peer-reviewed articles about the differences in emissions and resources used between various plant-based alternatives to dairy and dairy products. Emissions included were greenhouse gases, acidifying, eutrophicating, and ozone-depleting substances, and resource use included water, energy, and land. The results are presented as the quotients of the ratios of plant-based alternatives to dairy and dairy products. The comparison shows that the plant-based dairy alternatives have lower, or much lower, impacts in almost all cases, with two exceptions: water use for almond drinks (several studies) and emissions of ozone-depleting substances for margarine (one study). There is a lack of data concerning impacts other than greenhouse gas emissions for plant-based cheese alternatives; and in general, emissions of greenhouse gases are more highly covered than other impacts. In the quest for a swift transition to a low carbon economy, however, there is already enough evidence to proceed with a dietary change involving switching dairy products to plant-based alternatives.

How necessary and feasible are reductions of methane emissions from livestock to support stringent temperature goals?

Agriculture is the largest single source of global anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions, with ruminants the dominant contributor. Livestock CH4 emissions are projected to grow another 30% by 2050 under current policies, yet few countries have set targets or are implementing policies to reduce emissions in absolute terms. The reason for this limited ambition may be linked not only to the underpinning role of livestock for nutrition and livelihoods in many countries but also diverging perspectives on the importance of mitigating these emissions, given the short atmospheric lifetime of CH4. Here, we show that in mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C, which include cost-effective reductions from all emission sources, the contribution of future livestock CH4 emissions to global warming in 2050 is about one-third of that from future net carbon dioxide emissions. Future livestock CH4 emissions, therefore, significantly constrain the remaining carbon budget and the ability to meet stringent temperature limits. We review options to address livestock CH4 emissions through more efficient production, technological advances and demand-side changes, and their interactions with land-based carbon sequestration. We conclude that bringing livestock into mainstream mitigation policies, while recognizing their unique social, cultural and economic roles, would make an important contribution towards reaching the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and is vital for a limit of 1.5°C. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Decoupling between ammonia emission and crop production in China due to policy interventions

Cropland ammonia (NH₃ ) emission is a critical driver triggering haze pollution. Many agricultural policies were enforced in past four decades to improve nitrogen (N) use efficiency while maintaining crop yield. Inadvertent reductions of NH₃ emissions, which may be induced by such policies, are not well evaluated. Here, we quantify the China's cropland-NH₃ emission change from 1980 to 2050 and its response to policy interventions, using a data-driven model and a survey-based dataset of the fertilization scheme. Cropland-NH₃ emission in China doubled from 1.93 to 4.02 Tg NH₃ -N in period 1980-1996, and then decreased to 3.50 Tg NH₃ -N in 2017. The prevalence of four agricultural policies may avoid ~3.0 Tg NH₃ -N in 2017, mainly located in highly fertilized areas. Optimization of fertilizer management and food consumption could mitigate three-quarters of NH₃ emission in 2050 and lower NH₃ emission intensity (emission divided by crop production) close to the European Union and the United States. Our findings provide an evidence on the decoupling of cropland-NH₃ from crop production in China and suggest the need to achieve cropland-NH₃  mitigation while sustaining crop yields in other developing economies.

Global mapping of crop-specific emission factors highlights hotspots of nitrous oxide mitigation

Mitigating soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions is essential for staying below a 2 °C warming threshold. However, accurate assessments of mitigation potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in direct emission factors (EFs). To assess where and why EFs differ, we created high-resolution maps of crop-specific EFs based on 1,507 georeferenced field observations. Here, using a data-driven approach, we show that EFs vary by two orders of magnitude over space. At global and regional scales, such variation is primarily driven by climatic and edaphic factors rather than the well-recognized management practices. Combining spatially explicit EFs with N surplus information, we conclude that global mitigation potential without compromising crop production is 30% (95% confidence interval, 17-53%) of direct soil emissions of N₂O, equivalent to the entire direct soil emissions of China and the United States combined. Two-thirds (65%) of the mitigation potential could be achieved on one-fifth of the global harvested area, mainly located in humid subtropical climates and across gleysols and acrisols. These findings highlight the value of a targeted policy approach on global hotspots that could deliver large N₂O mitigation as well as environmental and food co-benefits.

Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO₂ and non-CO₂ GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO₂ emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO₂ and non-CO₂ GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO₂ mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO₂ must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO₂ mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO₂ commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO₂ emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO₂ mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO₂ for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

Waste-to-nutrition: a review of current and emerging conversion pathways

Residual biomass is acknowledged as a key sustainable feedstock for the transition towards circular and low fossil carbon economies to supply whether energy, chemical, material and food products or services. The latter is receiving increasing attention, in particular in the perspective of decoupling nutrition from arable land demand. In order to provide a comprehensive overview of the technical possibilities to convert residual biomasses into edible ingredients, we reviewed over 950 scientific and industrial records documenting existing and emerging waste-to-nutrition pathways, involving over 150 different feedstocks here grouped under 10 umbrella categories: (i) wood-related residual biomass, (ii) primary crop residues, (iii) manure, (iv) food waste, (v) sludge and wastewater, (vi) green residual biomass, (vii) slaughterhouse by-products, (viii) agrifood co-products, (ix) C₁ gases and (x) others. The review includes a detailed description of these pathways, as well as the processes they involve. As a result, we proposed four generic building blocks to systematize waste-to-nutrition conversion sequence patterns, namely enhancement, cracking, extraction and bioconversion. We further introduce a multidimensional representation of the biomasses suitability as potential as nutritional sources according to (i) their content in anti-nutritional compounds, (ii) their degree of structural complexity and (iii) their concentration of macro- and micronutrients. Finally, we suggest that the different pathways can be grouped into eight large families of approaches: (i) insect biorefinery, (ii) green biorefinery, (iii) lignocellulosic biorefinery, (iv) non-soluble protein recovery, (v) gas-intermediate biorefinery, (vi) liquid substrate alternative, (vii) solid-substrate fermentation and (viii) more-out-of-slaughterhouse by-products. The proposed framework aims to support future research in waste recovery and valorization within food systems, along with stimulating reflections on the improvement of resources' cascading use.

Social Character of Science and Its Connection to Epistemic Reliability

Scientific research is a human endeavour, performed by communities of people. Disproportionate focus on only some of the features related to this obvious fact has been used to discredit the reliability of scientific knowledge and to relativize its value when compared with knowledge stemming from other sources. This epistemic relativism is widespread nowadays and is arguably dangerous for our collective future, as the threat of climate change and its denialism clearly shows. In this work, we argue that even though the social character of science is indeed real, it does not entail epistemic relativism with respect to scientific knowledge, but quite the opposite, as there are several characteristic behaviours of this specific human community that were built to increase the reliability of scientific outputs. Crucially, we believe that present-day scientific education is lacking in the description and analysis of these particularities of the scientific community as a social group and that further investing in this area could greatly improve the possibilities of critical analysis of the often very technical issues that the citizens and future citizens of our modern societies have to confront.

Reconfiguring Food Systems Governance: The UNFSS and the Battle Over Authority and Legitimacy

The UN Food Systems Summit was an ambitious and hotly contested event that brought competing approaches to global food governance into relief. In this article, we unpack the rival visions that circulate around how food systems should be governed, focusing on two issues that we feel are at the heart of these divergences: authority and legitimacy. We illustrate how both corporate-philanthropic and food sovereignty networks are struggling to establish epistemic authority of food systems as well as produce legitimacy through very different approaches to participation and accountability.

South African Consumer Adoption of Plant-Based and Cultivated Meat: A Segmentation Study

The purpose of this study was to assess the likelihood of consumer adoption of plant-based and cultivated meat in South Africa as a pathway to a healthy, sustainable, and equitable food supply. We recruited a large sample of South Africans representative across age (18–61), gender, race, and income to participate in an online survey. Participants responded to a range of measures including adoption indicators, estimated yearly intake, motivators for purchasing, desired product characteristics, preferred species, and sociodemographics. We found a high degree of openness to both products. For plant-based meat, 67% were highly likely to try and 59% were highly likely to purchase. For cultivated meat, 60% were highly likely to try and 53% were highly likely to purchase. The highest acceptance was amongst the younger generations: 60% of born-frees, 62% of millennials, and 53% of Gen X were highly likely to purchase plant-based meat and 55% of born-frees, 55% of millennials, and 46% of Gen X were highly likely to purchase cultivated meat. For the general population, we observed that future meat intake was estimated to be split equally among the three meat categories (conventional, cultivated, and plant-based). We found early adopters (those highly likely to purchase) to be quite similar in attitudinal and sociodemographic characteristics in comparison to the general population. The study findings suggest that both plant-based and cultivated meat could be viable market-based options for improving the food system in South Africa, as consumers across all segments of society, and especially amongst the younger population, indicated broad acceptance.

World scientists' warnings into action, local to global

'We have kicked the can down the road once again - but we are running out of road.' - Rachel Kyte, Dean of Fletcher School at Tufts University.We, in our capacities as scientists, economists, governance and policy specialists, are shifting from warnings to guidance for action before there is no more 'road.' The science is clear and irrefutable; humanity is in advanced ecological overshoot. Our overexploitation of resources exceeds ecosystems' capacity to provide them or to absorb our waste. Society has failed to meet clearly stated goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Civilization faces an epochal crossroads, but with potentially much better, wiser outcomes if we act now.What are the concrete and transformative actions by which we can turn away from the abyss? In this paper we forcefully recommend priority actions and resource allocation to avert the worst of the climate and nature emergencies, two of the most pressing symptoms of overshoot, and lead society into a future of greater wellbeing and wisdom. Humanity has begun the social, economic, political and technological initiatives needed for this transformation. Now, massive upscaling and acceleration of these actions and collaborations are essential before irreversible tipping points are crossed in the coming decade. We still can overcome significant societal, political and economic barriers of our own making.Previously, we identified six core areas for urgent global action - energy, pollutants, nature, food systems, population stabilization and economic goals. Here we identify an indicative, systemic and time-limited framework for priority actions for policy, planning and management at multiple scales from household to global. We broadly follow the 'Reduce-Remove-Repair' approach to rapid action. To guide decision makers, planners, managers, and budgeters, we cite some of the many experiments, mechanisms and resources in order to facilitate rapid global adoption of effective solutions.Our biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioral. To have hope of success, we must accelerate collaborative actions across scales, in different cultures and governance systems, while maintaining adequate social, economic and political stability. Effective and timely actions are still achievable on many, though not all fronts. Such change will mean the difference for billions of children and adults, hundreds of thousands of species, health of many ecosystems, and will determine our common future.

Mapping the landscape of Consumer Food Waste

Since 2015 there has been a surge of academic publications and citations focused on consumer food waste. To introduce a special issue of Appetite focused on the drivers of consumer food waste we perform a transdisciplinary and historical review of the literature through a co-citation network analysis and topic modelling approach. We show that the rapid increase in publications is largely attributable to an urgency caused by the Sustainable Development Goals and climate change. Topic modelling reveals that the dramatic quantitative increase of publications has also produced a variety of evolving themes, and that a metaphorical Cambrian Explosion is occurring after decades of academic inactivity. Network analysis results show that consumer food waste features in thousands of articles and hundreds of journals, but that the citation practices of academics are becoming highly concentrated, as 20% of journals attract over 80% of citations. Finally, by examining the burstiness and transdisciplinary structure of citation networks we show that though the field has historically been dominated by empirical articles, it is now starting to show signs of maturity as a flurry of review papers help to consolidate knowledge.

Quantifying opportunities for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation using big data from smallholder crop and livestock farmers across Bangladesh

Climate change is and will continue to have significant implications for agricultural systems. While adaptation to climate change should be the priority for smallholder production systems, adoption of cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture not only contributes to food security but also reduces the extent of climate change and future adaptation needs. Utilizing management data from 16,413 and 12,548 crop and livestock farmers and associated soil and climatic data, we estimated GHG emissions generated from crop and livestock production using crop and livestock models, respectively. Mitigation measures in crop and livestock production, their mitigation potential and cost/benefit of adoption were then obtained from literature review, stakeholder consultations and expert opinion. We applied the identified mitigation measures to a realistic scale of adoption scenario in the short- (2030) and long-term (2050). Our results were then validated through stakeholders consultations. Here, we present identified mitigation options, their mitigation potentials and cost or benefit of adoption in the form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). Based on our analysis, total GHG emissions from agricultural sector in Bangladesh for the year 2014-15 is 76.79 million tonne (Mt) carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO₂e). Business-as-usual GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in Bangladesh are approximately 86.87 and 100.44 Mt CO₂e year^-1 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Adoption of climate-smart crop and livestock management options to reduce emissions considering a realistic adoption scenario would offer GHG mitigation opportunities of 9.51 and 14.21 Mt CO₂e year^-1 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Of this mitigation potential, 70-75% can be achieved through cost-saving options that could benefit smallholder farmers. Realization of this potential mitigation benefit, however, largely depends on the degree to which supportive policies and measures can encourage farmers' adoption of the identified climate smart agricultural techniques. Therefore, government should focus on facilitating uptake of these options through appropriate policy interventions, incentive mechanisms and strengthening agricultural extension programs.

Reducing Carbon Footprint Inequality of Household Consumption in Rural Areas: Analysis from Five Representative Provinces in China

Household consumption carbon footprint and inequality reductions are vital for a sustainable society, especially for rural areas. This study, focusing on rural China, one of the fastest growing economies with a massive population, explored the carbon footprint and inequality of household consumption using the latest micro household survey data of 2018 linked to environmental extended input--output analysis. The results show that in 2018 in rural China, the average household carbon footprint is 2.46 tons CO₂-eq per capita, which is around one-third of China's average footprint, indicating the large potential for further growth. Housing (45.32%), transportation (20.45%), and food (19.62%) are the dominant contributors to the carbon footprint. Meanwhile, great inequality, with a Gini coefficient of 0.488, among rural households is observed, which is largely due to differences in type of house built or purchased (explaining 24.44% of the variation), heating (18.10%), car purchase (12.44%), and petrol consumption (12.44%). Provinces, average education, and nonfarm income are among the important factors influencing the inequality. In the process of urbanization and rural revitalization, there is a high possibility that the household carbon footprint continues to increase, maintaining high levels of inequality. The current energy transition toward less carbon-intensive fuels in rural China is likely to dampen the growth rates of carbon footprints and potentially decrease inequality. Carbon intensity decrease could significantly reduce carbon footprints, but increase inequality. More comprehensive measures to reduce carbon footprint and inequality are needed, including transitioning to clean energy, poverty alleviation, reduction of income inequality, and better health care coverage.

The Role of Food and Beverage Companies in Transforming Food Systems: Building Resilience at Multiple Scales

Food and beverage companies are increasingly aware of the risks posed by climate change and many are interested in addressing them by building resilience along their supply chains. Financial incentives for environmental, social, and governance criteria further motivate mitigation action by firms. To achieve sustainable outcomes, human and ecological systems must be managed for resilience. The scientific community and food and beverage firms must collaborate in the development of measurable and verifiable indicators that support adaptation and mitigation action along food supply chains. This article identifies 3 areas in which a synergistic progress would set a resilient trajectory toward sustainability: 1) incentives for sustainable intensification, 2) expanded reporting standards, and 3) pre-competitive collaborations. Incremental, clear, and measurable steps can be taken to adapt food supply chains to the pressing challenges imposed by climate change, mitigate further emissions, and bring producers and consumers along in the journey towards planetary health.

Selecting low-carbon technologies and measures for high agricultural carbon productivity in Taihu Lake Basin, China

In this paper, Delphi method was used to evaluate the low-carbon technologies and measures for high agricultural carbon productivity in Taihu Lake Basin. We established the selecting process and standards and obtained the final list of low-carbon technologies and management measures of high agricultural carbon productivity in Taihu Lake Basin: (1) the initial list of low-carbon technologies and measures of planting industry included 19 items, of which 10 items were included in the final list. The 10 technologies and measures included in the final list were reducing fertilizers, mixed use of organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer, soil testing and formulated fertilization, application of controlled release fertilizer, deep application of fertilizers, cultivation of new variety, extension of conservation tillage, extension of midseason/alternate drainage, paddy-upland rotation (rice-rape/rice-wheat), and reducing pesticides. (2) The initial list of low-carbon technologies and measures of animal husbandry included 11 items, of which 4 items were included in the final list. The 4 technologies and measures included in the final list were reasonable ratio of concentrate to roughage in ration, treatment straw feed by silage/ammoniation/shredding, application of nutritive cube/dietary additives, and promotion of high productivity livestock breeds. (3) Low-carbon agricultural technologies and management measures need to be adapted to local conditions according to different geographical, climatic, and socio-economic development characteristics, and it is necessary to form a regionally differentiated system of low-carbon agricultural technologies and management measures. The final list of low-carbon technologies and management measures of high agricultural carbon productivity can provide decision-making reference for the formulation of agricultural carbon emission reduction technology system and low-carbon agricultural development planning of provinces and cities in Taihu Lake Basin. At the same time, the final list can be considered a priority for the promotion of agricultural low-carbon technologies and measures in China and even in the world.

Perceptions of Vegan Food among Organic Food Consumers Following Different Diets

This article identifies consumer segments for vegan food by analysing perceptions of vegan food among food organic consumers following different diets: vegans, vegetarians, former vegetarians, flexitarians, and omnivores. The analysis is based on responses to a quantitative consumer survey for which 503 participants were recruited from customers at German grocery stores by quota sampling according to diet and region. From the responses to an open-ended question eliciting the participants’ associations with vegan food, the analysis finds that vegans and vegetarians perceive vegan foods primarily as being beneficial for animal welfare, healthy, and environmentally friendly, while those who ate meat perceive vegan food primarily as containing no animal ingredients and as being healthy. The respondents’ varying assessments of the taste, diversity, and environmental benefits of vegan food were found to differ in relation to the various diets they followed, as did their assessments of how long the vegan trend is likely to last. A cluster analysis based on the consumers’ perceptions and attitudes revealed three consumer groups: “vegan fans”, “enjoyment sceptics”, and “originality-sceptics”. Scepticism about the originality of vegan food was found in all diet groups. These findings can help inform more effective targeting of consumer needs for vegan organic food.

Role of the Food Supply Chain Stakeholders in Achieving UN SDGs

This paper gives an overview of main food supply chain stakeholders and their role in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As this supply chain is global, playing a significant role in feeding the world, a deeper analysis of 17 SDGs, their targets and indicators reveals numerous direct and indirect connections with various SDGs. To perform such an overview, the authors investigated the link between the main stakeholders of the chain (farmers, food processors, food traders and consumers) with UN SDGs. In parallel, the authors explored the roles of policymakers, inspection services, certification bodies and academia in supporting these SDGs. In spite of numerous papers, calculations and estimations, discussion and media coverage, the authors believe that only the tip of the iceberg has been revealed. Based on this overview, the authors emphasize SDG 2—Zero Hunger and SDG 12—Responsible Consumption and Production as the most dominant for the food supply chain. In parallel, the achievement of SDG 17—Partnerships for the Goals will enable deeper intertwining of the goals and all stakeholders in the food supply chain continuum. Additional efforts are needed to pave the way for fulfilling the targets of the UN SDGs and exceeding expectations of all stakeholders.

A Multifunctional Solution for Wicked Problems: Value-Chain Wide Facilitation of Legumes Cultivated at Bioregional Scales Is Necessary to Address the Climate-Biodiversity-Nutrition Nexus

Well-managed legume-based food systems are uniquely positioned to curtail the existential challenge posed by climate change through the significant contribution that legumes can make toward limiting Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. This potential is enabled by the specific functional attributes offered only by legumes, which deliver multiple co-benefits through improved ecosystem functions, including reduced farmland biodiversity loss, and better human-health and -nutrition provisioning. These three critical societal challenges are referred to collectively here as the “climate-biodiversity-nutrition nexus.” Despite the unparalleled potential of the provisions offered by legumes, this diverse crop group remains characterized as underutilized throughout Europe, and in many regions world-wide. This commentary highlights that integrated, diverse, legume-based, regenerative agricultural practices should be allied with more-concerted action on ex-farm gate factors at appropriate bioregional scales. Also, that this can be achieved whilst optimizing production, safeguarding food-security, and minimizing additional land-use requirements. To help avoid forfeiting the benefits of legume cultivation for system function, a specific and practical methodological and decision-aid framework is offered. This is based upon the identification and management of sustainable-development indicators for legume-based value chains, to help manage the key facilitative capacities and dependencies. Solving the wicked problems of the climate-biodiversity-nutrition nexus demands complex solutions and multiple benefits and this legume-focus must be allied with more-concerted policy action, including improved facilitation of the catalytic provisions provided by collaborative capacity builders—to ensure that the knowledge networks are established, that there is unhindered information flow, and that new transformative value-chain capacities and business models are established.

The farmers' dilemma: Meat, means, and morality

Evidence overwhelmingly supports the view that we need to drastically reduce our consumption of animal products for reasons related to the environment and public health, while moral concerns about the treatment of animals in agriculture are becoming ever more common. As governments increasingly recognize the need to change our food production and alternative protein products become more appealing to consumers, agriculture finds itself in a unique period of transition. How do farmers respond to the changing atmosphere? We present secondary analyses of qualitative and quantitative data to highlight some of the uncertainty and ambivalence about meat production felt throughout the farming community. Survey data from France and Germany reveals that in both countries, those who work in the meat industry have significantly higher rates of meat avoidance than those who do not work in the industry. While non-meat-industry workers are more likely to cite concerns for animals or the environment, meat industry workers more often cite concerns about the healthiness or safety of the products. Concurrently, interviews with people who raise animals for a living suggest that moral concerns among farmers are growing but largely remain hidden; talking about them openly was felt as a form of betrayal. We discuss these findings in the context of the ongoing agricultural transition, observe how tension has manifested as polarization among Dutch farmers, and offer some thoughts about the role of farmers in a new world of alternative proteins.

Sustainability Opportunities for Mediterranean Food Products through New Formulations Based on Carob Flour (Ceratonia siliqua L.)

Carob flour is increasingly popular in innovative functional foods. Its main producers are Mediterranean countries, facing health and nutrition challenges, and difficulties in tackling climate change. This study aims at formulating innovative sustainable bakery products of high nutritional value while pleasing the consumer and addressing regional challenges. Hence, carob flour was obtained by grinding sun-dried carob pods, thus reducing the environmental impact, and preserving carob’s high nutraceutical value. Different bread formulations resulted from the blend of wheat flour with carob pulp (5, 10, 20, and 30%) and/or seed powder (5 and 10%), with no added fats, additives, or processing aids. New products were evaluated for their textural, chromatic, nutritional, aromatic, and hedonic properties. Carob is rich in aroma, antioxidants, and prebiotic fibers, and does not contain gluten, so when combined with wheat, the proportion of gluten in bread is reduced. Carob is also rich in minerals (4.16% and 2.00% ash, respectively in seed and pulp), and breadmaking seems to generate lesser furane derivatives than in white bread. In short, carob is typically Mediterranean and is a valuable local resource in the formulation of sustainable foods with high nutritional value, low carbon footprint, safe, healthy, tasty, and affordable, all at once.

Impact of a College Course on the Sustainability of Student Diets in Terms of the Planetary Boundaries for Climate Change and Land, Water, Nitrogen and Phosphorus Use

While it is widely acknowledged that shifts in diet could play a large role in mitigating climate change with important health co-benefits, knowledge on how to accomplish these shifts is lacking. Our previous study showed a statistically significant reduction in the dietary carbon footprint of students who had completed a college course on the connections between food and the environment compared to a control group enrolled in an unrelated course. An extension of the previous study, this research evaluates the sustainability of female and male diets in both the intervention and control groups from baseline to follow up with respect to the following planetary boundaries: greenhouse gases, land use, water use, nitrogen loss, and phosphorus use. In addition, a 50-point modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index was calculated at baseline and follow up for all students. Female students enrolled in the intervention course reported diets with statistically significant reductions in their footprints from baseline to follow up for greenhouse gases (p = 0.011), land use (p = 0.012), and phosphorus (p = 0.045), and the female diets were statistically different from the control groups for those three boundaries. For water use, female diets increased in footprint from baseline to follow up due to an increase in vegetable intake. Males enrolled in the intervention showed similar trends (reductions in footprints for greenhouse gases, land use, and phosphorus use and an increase in blue water use), but differences were not statistically significant, partially due to the smaller number of male respondents. Student dietary footprints are compared to a per capita limit allowable for food according to the planetary boundaries concept. For all of the planetary boundaries except blue water use, the student dietary footprints were well above the per capita boundary for food-related sources.

Don't Have a Cow, Man: Consumer Acceptance of Animal-Free Dairy Products in Five Countries

Concern with the ethical, environmental and health consequences of the livestock industry is pushing the growth of a sector of animal-free alternatives. Advancing research is allowing these products to increasingly deliver experiences on a par with and beyond the products they originally sought to emulate, but widespread consumer adoption has not yet been realised. This research surveyed 5,054 individuals from Brazil, Germany, India, the UK and the USA, examining the nature and extent of acceptance of dairy products derived from precision fermentation, one of the three main pillars of alternative proteins. We find substantial consumer acceptance across countries for these products, animal-free dairy cheese, seeing 78.8% of consumers as probably or definitely likely to try such a product, with 70.5% probably or definitely likely to buy, substantially higher than previous research has found for cultivated meat products. Consumers anticipated animal-free dairy cheese to be significantly more tasty than current vegan cheese products, and just as tasty and safe as basic animal-derived cheese while rating it as significantly more ethical and environmentally friendly. Multiple linear regression revealed that within dietary identifiers, vegetarianism and veganism were strong predictors of willingness to buy but flexitarianism showed the strongest predictive power for willingness to buy. Of all variables, the strongest predictor of willingness to buy was current level of cheese consumption. Further regressions revealed that taste perception was key to driving purchase intent across all countries. The implications of these results for the development of the animal-free dairy sector are discussed.

Novel technologies for emission reduction complement conservation agriculture to achieve negative emissions from row-crop production

Plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Because agriculture's productivity is based on this process, a combination of technologies to reduce emissions and enhance soil carbon storage can allow this sector to achieve net negative emissions while maintaining high productivity. Unfortunately, current row-crop agricultural practice generates about 5% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and European Union. To reduce these emissions, significant effort has been focused on changing farm management practices to maximize soil carbon. In contrast, the potential to reduce emissions has largely been neglected. Through a combination of innovations in digital agriculture, crop and microbial genetics, and electrification, we estimate that a 71% (1,744 kg CO₂e/ha) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from row crop agriculture is possible within the next 15 y. Importantly, emission reduction can lower the barrier to broad adoption by proceeding through multiple stages with meaningful improvements that gradually facilitate the transition to net negative practices. Emerging voluntary and regulatory ecosystems services markets will incentivize progress along this transition pathway and guide public and private investments toward technology development. In the difficult quest for net negative emissions, all tools, including emission reduction and soil carbon storage, must be developed to allow agriculture to maintain its critical societal function of provisioning society while, at the same time, generating environmental benefits.

Emissions from Animal Agriculture—16.5% Is the New Minimum Figure

Knowledge production within the climate sciences is quickly taken up by multiple stakeholders, reproduced in scientific citation and the broader culture, even when it is no longer accurate. This article accomplishes two goals: firstly, it contributes to the clarification of the quantification of emissions from animal agriculture, and secondly, it considers why the dominant framing of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) on this subject focuses on maximizing production efficiency. Specifically, analysing the FAO’s own work on this topic shows that the often-used FAO estimate that emissions from animal agriculture amount to 14.5% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is now out of date. In returning to the FAO’s own explanation of its data sources and its more recent analysis of emissions from animal agriculture, this article finds that the figure of minimum estimate should be updated to 16.5%. The tendency of the FAO to prioritize a technological approach focused on making animal production more “eco-efficient” is critically examined in light of many other evidence-based calls for reductions in animal consumption. An explanation for this FAO approach is offered in terms of a type of epistemological bias.

On Farmers Markets as Wicked Opportunities

Marketplaces are almost as old as humanity. They result from trade and trade is structured by political, religious, social, and economic needs. Overtime, marketplaces have woven together relational processes representing each of these, in order to host trade, social life, political life, and all manner of economic activities. So, markets are bundles of activities tightly related reciprocally with, and in the context of social institutions. Likewise, marketplaces manifest expectations for how society sees itself and for how societies govern themselves. It is this framing opportunity which I exploit here. In this article I pursue the reconstruction of wicked problems to show how marketplaces are wicked opportunities. Wicked opportunity thinking can be applied to many other aspects of our contemporary life.

Research on the Relationship between Prices of Agricultural Production Factors, Food Consumption Prices, and Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China’s Provincial Panel Data

China is a large agricultural country with a high level of agricultural carbon emissions. Whether market prices can be used in agricultural production as a means of agricultural carbon emissions reduction is of great significance to improve the allocation of agricultural production factors and expand large-scale production. This paper applies an autoregressive distributed lag–pooled mean group(ARDL–PMG) model to evaluate the relationship between agricultural production factor prices, food consumption prices, and agricultural carbon emissions, using Chinese provincial panel data from 1994 to 2018. The results show that agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural production factor prices show environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) characteristics; agricultural carbon emissions and food prices show a U-shaped curve; and agricultural production factors are positively correlated with food price in both directions in the long-term. The results of Granger causality tests show that price is the cause of agricultural carbon emissions; the price of agricultural production factors and the price of food consumption are mutually causal. Such results have implications for price, agriculture, and environmental policies. The analysis implies that the market price can be applied to agricultural carbon reduction, which will help policymakers to implement effective price policies in order to reduce agricultural carbon emissions. One implication is that promoting the marketization of agricultural production factors and reducing price distortions will be conducive to carbon emissions reduction in agriculture, which in turn will increase food consumption prices. Therefore, subsidies are needed at the consumption end, which will eventually achieve further carbon emissions reduction at the production and consumption ends.

Household Food Metabolism: Losses, Waste and Environmental Pressures of Food Consumption at the Regional Level in Spain

Dealing with an increasing population is challenging the global food system not only in productive terms, but also through the associated environmental pressures. A growing diagnostic effort is being made by global and national agencies. Innovative approaches are needed to support effective policy efforts. This study aims to illustrate the potentialities of the household metabolism approach in the diagnosis of the environmental pressures derived from household food consumption, using the Spanish regions and the effects of the 2008 crisis as case studies. The direct information concerning food consumption in physical terms provided by the Spanish household budget survey is used to estimate some relevant environmental pressures (food losses and waste along the food chain, as well as water and carbon footprint) for the Spanish food system at a sub-national level. These data are directly translated into differences in environmental pressures and compared with other dietary profiles. Furthermore, the physical information of environmental pressures is related to household socio-economic status, showing the potentialities of the association with household socio-economic information. Finally, our data illustrate with some examples how the economic crisis has acted as a driver of change in food consumption, promoting a better environmental performance at the cost of poorer diets.

Engineering healthy crops: molecular strategies for enhancing the plant immune system

Crop diseases caused by viruses, bacteria, fungi, oomycetes and nematodes constitute major costs for farmers in terms of control measures and yield losses. Enhancing resistance to these pathogens via genetic modification or genome editing represents an economically and environmentally attractive path forward. Recent advances in our understanding of how plants detect pathogens and activate immune responses is now enabling enhancement of disease resistance traits. In particular, the recent determination of structures of both cell surface and intracellular immune receptors in plants in their activated states is providing new insights into how recognition complexes can be modified to expand recognition specificities to confer resistance to otherwise virulent pathogens. By expanding the repertoire of both cell surface and intracellular recognition systems, and combining them, it is expected that resistance to numerous diseases will be enhanced and will be more durable.

Biomimetics provides lessons from nature for contemporary ways to improve human health

Homo sapiens is currently living in serious disharmony with the rest of the natural world. For our species to survive, and for our well-being, we must gather knowledge from multiple perspectives and actively engage in studies of planetary health. The enormous diversity of species, one of the most striking aspects of life on our planet, provides a source of solutions that have been developed through evolution by natural selection by animals living in extreme environments. The food system is central to finding solutions; our current global eating patterns have a negative impact on human health, driven climate change and loss of biodiversity. We propose that the use of solutions derived from nature, an approach termed biomimetics, could mitigate the effects of a changing climate on planetary health as well as human health. For example, activation of the transcription factor Nrf2 may play a role in protecting animals living in extreme environments, or animals exposed to heat stress, pollution and pesticides. In order to meet these challenges, we call for the creation of novel interdisciplinary planetary health research teams.

US and UK Consumer Adoption of Cultivated Meat: A Segmentation Study

Despite growing evidence of the environmental and public health threats posed by today's intensive animal production, consumers in the west remain largely attached to meat. Cultivated meat offers a way to grow meat directly from cells, circumventing these issues as well as the use of animals altogether. The aim of this study was to assess the overall consumer markets and a range of preferences around cultivated meat in the US and the UK relating to nomenclature, genetic modification, health enhancements, and other features. To this end, we recruited large representative samples to participate in an online survey about cultivated meat, and subsequently analyzed segments (a) in the early majority population (guided by the Diffusion of Innovations Model), (b) by generation, and (c) in the general population. Our findings showed a high level of openness (80%) in both the US and UK populations, with 40% somewhat or moderately likely to try and 40% highly likely to try. Younger generations had the greatest openness: 88% of Gen Z, 85% of Millennials, 77% of Gen X, and 72% of Baby Boomers were at least somewhat open to trying cultivated meat. All segments envisioned cultivated meat to be nearly half of their total meat intake. Findings show that consumers prefer the terms 'cultured' and 'cultivated' over 'cell-based' and 'cell-cultured' for use in a social context and on packages, even though they perceive these terms as less descriptive. The most important on-package label was one indicating government assurances, and participants preferred non-GM products over GM products. We also found that US consumers prefer nutritionally superior meat over nutritionally equivalent meat. We discuss implications for product development, messaging, and understanding the likely adoption path of this food innovation.

Lifetime climate impacts of diet transitions: a novel climate change accounting perspective

Dietary transitions, such as eliminating meat consumption, have been proposed as one way to reduce the climate impact of the global and regional food systems. However, it should be ensured that replacement diets are indeed nutritious and that climate benefits are accurately accounted for. This study uses New Zealand food consumption as a case study for exploring the cumulative climate impact of adopting the national dietary guidelines and the substitution of meat from hypothetical diets. The new GWP* metric is used as it was designed to better reflect the climate impacts of the release of methane than the de facto standard 100-year Global Warming Potential metric (GWP100). A transition at age 25 to the hypothetical dietary guideline diet reduces cumulative warming associated with diet by 7 to 9% at the 100th year compared with consuming the average New Zealand diet. The reduction in diet-related cumulative warming from the transition to a hypothetical meat-substituted diet varied between 12 and 15%. This is equivalent to reducing an average individual's lifetime warming contribution by 2 to 4%. General improvements are achieved for nutrient intakes by adopting the dietary guidelines compared with the average New Zealand diet; however, the substitution of meat items results in characteristic nutrient differences, and these differences must be considered alongside changes in emission profiles.

Reducing climate impacts of beef production: A synthesis of life cycle assessments across management systems and global regions

The global demand for beef is rapidly increasing (FAO, 2019), raising concern about climate change impacts (Clark et al., 2020; Leip et al., 2015; Springmann et al., 2018). Beef and dairy contribute over 70% of livestock greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), which collectively contribute ~6.3 Gt CO₂ -eq/year (Gerber et al., 2013; Herrero et al., 2016) and account for 14%-18% of human GHG emissions (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Gerber et al., 2013). The utility of beef GHG mitigation strategies, such as land-based carbon (C) sequestration and increased production efficiency, are actively debated (Garnett et al., 2017). We compiled 292 local comparisons of "improved" versus "conventional" beef production systems across global regions, assessing net GHG emission data from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies. Our results indicate that net beef GHG emissions could be reduced substantially via changes in management. Overall, a 46 % reduction in net GHG emissions per unit of beef was achieved at sites using carbon (C) sequestration management strategies on grazed lands, and an 8% reduction in net GHGs was achieved at sites using growth efficiency strategies. However, net-zero emissions were only achieved in 2% of studies. Among regions, studies from Brazil had the greatest improvement, with management strategies for C sequestration and efficiency reducing beef GHG emissions by 57%. In the United States, C sequestration strategies reduced beef GHG emissions by over 100% (net-zero emissions) in a few grazing systems, whereas efficiency strategies were not successful at reducing GHGs, possibly because of high baseline efficiency in the region. This meta-analysis offers insight into pathways to substantially reduce beef production's global GHG emissions. Nonetheless, even if these improved land-based and efficiency management strategies could be fully applied globally, the trajectory of growth in beef demand will likely more than offset GHG emissions reductions and lead to further warming unless there is also reduced beef consumption.