Life expectancies of South African adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

Personalized life expectancy and treatment benefit index of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

The progression of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) within host includes typical stages and the Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is shown to be effective in slowing down this progression. There are great challenges in describing the entire HIV disease progression and evaluating comprehensive effects of ART on life expectancy for HIV infected individuals on ART.

METHODS

We develop a novel summative treatment benefit index (TBI), based on an HIV viral dynamics model and linking the infection and viral production rates to the Weibull function. This index summarizes the integrated effect of ART on the life expectancy (LE) of a patient, and more importantly, can be reconstructed from the individual clinic data.

RESULTS

The proposed model, faithfully mimicking the entire HIV disease progression, enables us to predict life expectancy and trace back the timing of infection. We fit the model to the longitudinal data in a cohort study in China to reconstruct the treatment benefit index, and we describe the dependence of individual life expectancy on key ART treatment specifics including the timing of ART initiation, timing of emergence of drug resistant virus variants and ART adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

We show that combining model predictions with monitored CD4 counts and viral loads can provide critical information about the disease progression, to assist the design of ART regimen for maximizing the treatment benefits.

Life expectancy after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Access to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has decreased mortality in HIV-positive people. We aimed to estimate the expected additional years of life in HIV-positive Thai people after starting cART through the National AIDS Program (NAP), administered by the Thai National Health Security Office (NHSO).

METHODS

The NHSO database collects characteristics of all Thai HIV-infected patients through the National AIDS Program, including linkage with the National Death Registry for vital status. This study included patients aged ≥15 years at cART initiation between 2008 and 2014. The abridged life table method was used to construct life tables stratified by sex and baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count. Life expectancy was defined as the additional years of life from age at starting cART.

RESULTS

201,688 eligible patients were included in analyses, contributing 618,837 person-years of follow-up. Median CD4⁺ T-cell count was 109 cells/mm³ and median age 37 years. The overall life expectancy after cART initiation at age 20 was 25.4 (95% CI, 25.3, 25.6) years and 20.6 (95% CI, 20.5, 20.7) at age 35 years. Life expectancy at baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count ≥350 cells/mm³ was 51.9 (95% CI, 51.0, 52.9) years for age 20 years and 43.2 (95% CI, 42.4, 44.1) years for age 35 years, close to life expectancy in the general Thai population.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing life expectancy with higher baseline CD4⁺ T-cell counts supports the guideline recommendations to start cART irrespective of CD4⁺ T-cell count. These results are beneficial to forecast the treatment cost and develop health policies for people living with HIV in Thailand and Asia.

Randomized Trial of Food Effect on Pharmacokinetic Parameters of ABX464 Administered Orally to Healthy Male Subjects

ABX464 is an antiviral that provides a novel approach to the reduction and control of HIV infection. Investigation of food influence is important in the optimization of treatment. An open-label, food effect, randomized study which included 2 groups of 24 subjects each was carried out to assess the bioavailability and safety of single (group 1) and repeated (group 2) oral doses of ABX464 (50 mg) under fed or fasted conditions. The maximum concentration (Cmax) and the area under the concentration-time curve from time zero to infinity (AUC0-∞) of ABX464 were demonstrated to increase with food after a single dose of ABX464 (219% and 188%, respectively). The apparent terminal elimination half-lives (t1/2s) under fed and fasted conditions were comparable, at about 0.80 h. The median time to maximum concentration (Tmax) was delayed from 1.5 to 2.8 h, and the ratio of the AUC0-∞ obtained under fed conditions to the AUC0-∞ obtained under fasted conditions (Frel) was 2.69. Comparable results were obtained on day 1 and day 10 in group 2. The increases in Cmax and AUC0-∞ of the metabolite ABX464-N-glucuronide (ABX464-NGlc) were, however, much more limited when ABX464 was given with food. The t1/2s were also comparable under the two conditions (around 100 h). Between day 1 and day 10, the Cmax increased by 5% under the fasted condition and by 25% under the fed condition. The most common related treatment-emergent adverse events were headaches, vomiting, and nausea. It was concluded that food has a significant impact on the levels of ABX464 in plasma with a delay in absorption and increased relative bioavailability, with a lesser impact on its biotransformation into ABX464-NGlc. ABX464 was well tolerated under both fasted and fed conditions. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT02731885.).

New insights into HIV epidemic in South Africa: key findings from the National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012

This article presents key findings from the 2012 HIV prevalence, incidence and behaviour survey conducted in South Africa and explores trends in the HIV epidemic. A representative household based survey collected behavioural and biomedical data among people of all ages. Chi-squared test for association and formal trend tests (2002, 2005, 2008 and 2012) were used to test for associations and trends in the HIV epidemic across the four surveys. In 2012 a total of 38 431 respondents were interviewed from 11 079 households; 28 997 (67.5%) of 42 950 eligible individuals provided blood specimens. HIV prevalence was 12.2% [95% CI: 11.4-13.1] in 2012 with prevalence higher among females 14.4% than males 9.9%. Adults aged 25-49 years were most affected, 25.2% [95% CI: 23.2-27.3]. HIV prevalence increased from 10.6% [95%CI: 9.8-11.6] in 2008 to 12.2% [95% CI: 11.4-13.1] in 2012 (p < 0.001). Antiretroviral treatment (ART) exposure doubled from 16.6% in 2008 to 31.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). HIV incidence in 2012 among persons 2 years and older was 1.07% [95% CI: 0.87-1.27], with the highest incidence among Black African females aged 20-34 years at 4.5%. Sexual debut before 15 years was reported by 10.7% of respondents aged 15-24 years, and was significantly higher among male youth than female (16.7% vs. 5.0% respectively, p < 0.001). Reporting of multiple sexual partners in the previous 12 months increased from 11.5% in 2002 to 18.3% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Condom use at last sex dropped from 45.1% in 2008 to 36.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Levels of accurate HIV knowledge about transmission and prevention were low and had decreased between 2008 and 2012 from 31.5% to 26.8%. South Africa is on the right track with scaling up ART. However, there have been worrying increases in most HIV-related risk behaviours. These findings suggest that there is a need to scale up prevention methods that integrate biomedical, behavioural, social and structural prevention interventions to reverse the tide in the fight against HIV.

Cervical Abnormalities in South African Women Living With HIV With High Screening and Referral Rates

PURPOSE

To determine the prevalence of screening, cervical dysplasia, and malignancy on the basis of histologic diagnoses from colposcopy and large loop excision of the transformation zone among women living with HIV (WLWH) who attended an urban antiretroviral treatment (ART) clinic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study to examine a random sample of 462 WLWH during a 5-year period from 2004 to 2009. Women on ART for < 3 months were excluded. Data were abstracted from electronic records and paper charts to assess rates of cervical abnormalities detected on Pap smears as well as time to colposcopy.

RESULTS

During the study period, 432 women (93.5%) had at least one evaluable Papanicolau test. At baseline, 237 women (54.9%) had an abnormal Papanicolau test, and of these patients, 181 (76.3%) had a Papanicolau test that qualified for further colposcopic evaluation. In addition, 115 women (63.5%) received colposcopy within a median of 39 days from referral. This yielded 74 evaluable histologic samples (64.3%), of which 21.6%, 27.0%, 27.0%, and 1.4% had cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, CIN2, CIN3, and invasive cervical cancer, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In a large sample of WLWH who received ART in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where Papanicolau test coverage and rates of referral for colposcopy and large loop excision of the transformation zone were high, > 75% of women with evaluable histologic samples had evidence of cervical dysplasia or malignancy. These findings underscore the importance of routine cervical screening upon entry into HIV care to optimize survival.

Evaluating strategies to improve HIV care outcomes in Kenya: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

With expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV mortality has decreased, yet life-years are still lost to AIDS. Strengthening of treatment programmes is a priority. We examined the state of an HIV care programme in Kenya and assessed interventions to improve the impact of ART programmes on population health.

METHODS

We created an individual-based mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic and the experiences of care among adults infected with HIV in Kenya. We calibrated the model to a longitudinal dataset from the Academic Model Providing Access To Healthcare (known as AMPATH) programme describing the routes into care, losses from care, and clinical outcomes. We simulated the cost and effect of interventions at different stages of HIV care, including improvements to diagnosis, linkage to care, retention and adherence of ART, immediate ART eligibility, and a universal test-and-treat strategy.

FINDINGS

We estimate that, of people dying from AIDS between 2010 and 2030, most will have initiated treatment (61%), but many will never have been diagnosed (25%) or will have been diagnosed but never started ART (14%). Many interventions targeting a single stage of the health-care cascade were likely to be cost-effective, but any individual intervention averted only a small percentage of deaths because the effect is attenuated by other weaknesses in care. However, a combination of five interventions (including improved linkage, point-of-care CD4 testing, voluntary counselling and testing with point-of-care CD4, and outreach to improve retention in pre-ART care and on-ART) would have a much larger impact, averting 1·10 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and 25% of expected new infections and would probably be cost-effective (US$571 per DALY averted). This strategy would improve health more efficiently than a universal test-and-treat intervention if there were no accompanying improvements to care ($1760 per DALY averted).

INTERPRETATION

When resources are limited, combinations of interventions to improve care should be prioritised over high-cost strategies such as universal test-and-treat strategy, especially if this is not accompanied by improvements to the care cascade. International guidance on ART should reflect alternative routes to programme strengthening and encourage country programmes to evaluate the costs and population-health impact in addition to the clinical benefits of immediate initiation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development, National Institutes of Health.

Initiation of antiretroviral therapy based on the 2015 WHO guidelines

OBJECTIVE

In 2015, the WHO recommended initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in all HIV-positive patients regardless of CD4 cell count. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of immediate versus deferred ART initiation among patients with CD4 cell counts exceeding 500cells/μl in four resource-limited countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, and India).

DESIGN

A 5-year Markov model with annual cycles, including patients at CD4 cell counts more than 500 cells/μl initiating ART or deferring therapy until historic ART initiation criteria of CD4 cell counts more than 350 cells/μl were met.

METHODS

The incidence of opportunistic infections, malignancies, cardiovascular disease, unscheduled hospitalizations, and death, were informed by the START trial results. Risk of HIV transmission was obtained from a systematic review. Disability weights were based on published literature. Cost inputs were inflated to 2014 US dollars and based on local sources. Results were expressed in cost per disability-adjusted life years averted and measured against WHO cost-effectiveness thresholds.

RESULTS

Immediate initiation of ART is associated with a cost per disability-adjusted life years averted of -$317 [95% confidence interval (CI): -$796-$817] in South Africa; -$507 (95% CI: -$765-$837) in Nigeria; -$136 (-$382-$459) in Uganda; and -$78 (-$256-$374) in India. The results are largely driven by the impact of ART on reducing the risk of new HIV transmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

In HIV-positive patients with CD4 counts above 500 cells/μl in the four studied countries, immediate initiation of ART versus deferred therapy until historic eligibility criteria are met is cost-effective and likely even cost-saving over time.

Life expectancy trends in adults on antiretroviral treatment in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported improvements in life expectancies of patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) over time, but it is not clear whether these improvements are explained by changes in baseline clinical characteristics, longer duration on ART or changes in clinical practices.

METHOD

Two parametric survival models were fitted to mortality data from South African ART cohorts that had linked patient records to the national vital registration system. The first model estimated mortality by age, sex, cohort, baseline CD4 cell count, time since ART initiation and period of ART initiation; the second model included only age, sex, cohort and period of follow-up. Life expectancies were calculated from the estimated mortality rates.

RESULTS

The first model estimated little change in mortality over time: women starting ART at age 35 years, at CD4 cell counts of 200 cells/μl or higher, had life expectancies of 32.7 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 31.6-33.6], 32.4 years (95% CI: 31.3-33.4) and 33.0 years (95% CI: 32.0-34.1) in the 2001-2006, 2007-2009 and 2010-2014 periods, respectively. However, the second model estimated a significant improvement in life expectancy; for all women on ART at age 35 years, corresponding life expectancies were 13.0 years (95% CI: 12.1-14.2), 20.4 years (95% CI: 19.5-21.4) and 26.1 years (95% CI: 25.2-26.9), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although life expectancies in South African ART patients have improved over time, these improvements are not observed after controlling for changes in baseline CD4 cell count and ART duration. This suggests that changes in clinical practice and programme scale have had little impact on ART mortality in South Africa.

Who Should We Target? The Impact of Individual and Family Characteristics on the Expressed Need for Community-Based Treatment Support in HIV Patients in South Africa

Reviews of impact evaluations of community-based health workers and peer support groups highlight the considerable variability in the effectiveness of such support in improving antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes. Evidence indicates that community-based support interventions targeting patients known to be at risk will probably display better results than generic interventions aimed at the entire population of people living with HIV. It is however difficult to identify these at-risk populations, rendering knowledge on the characteristics of patients groups who are in need of community-based support a clear research priority. The current study aims to address the knowledge gap by exploring the predictors of the willingness to (1) receive the support from a community-based health worker or (2) to participate in a support group in public sector ART programme of the Free State Province of South Africa. Based on the Individual-Family-Community framework for HIV research, the study employs a comprehensive approach by not only testing classical individual-level but also family-level predictors of the willingness to receive community-based support. In addition to individual-level predictors—such as age, health status and coping styles—our analysis demonstrated the importance of family characteristics. The results indicated that discrepancies in the family’s changeability level were an important predictor of the demand for community-based support services. Conversely, the findings indicated that patients living in a family more flexible than deemed ideal are more likely to require the support of a community health worker. The current study expands theory by indicating the need to acknowledge all social ecological levels in the study of chronic HIV care. The detection of both individual level and family level determinants of the expressed need for community-based support can inform health policy to devise strategies to target scarce resources to those vulnerable patients who report the greatest need for this support. In this way, the study results are a first step in an attempt to move away from generic, broad based community-based interventions towards community support that is tailored to the patient needs at both the individual and family level.

Human Resources for Treating HIV/AIDS: Are the Preventive Effects of Antiretroviral Treatment a Game Changer?

Shortages of human resources for treating HIV/AIDS (HRHA) are a fundamental barrier to reaching universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in developing countries. Previous studies suggest that recruiting HRHA to attain universal ART coverage poses an insurmountable challenge as ART significantly increases survival among HIV-infected individuals. While new evidence about ART's prevention benefits suggests fewer infections may mitigate the challenge, new policies such as treatment-as-prevention (TasP) will exacerbate it. We develop a mathematical model to analytically study the net effects of these countervailing factors. Using South Africa as a case study, we find that contrary to previous results, universal ART coverage is achievable even with current HRHA numbers. However, larger health gains are possible through a surge-capacity policy that aggressively recruits HRHA to reach universal ART coverage quickly. Without such a policy, TasP roll-out can increase health losses by crowding out sicker patients from treatment, unless a surge capacity exclusively for TasP is also created.

A Home-Based Rehabilitation Intervention for Adults Living With HIV: A Randomized Controlled Trial

A randomized controlled trial was conducted to investigate the effects of a 16-week home-based rehabilitation (HBR) intervention on the quality of life, functional mobility, and functional capacity of adult people living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The intervention was carried out by community health care workers under the supervision of a qualified physical therapist. Participants in the control group received the standard of care as well as written health advice. While participants in the intervention group showed greater improvements across all outcome measures, between-group differences were nonsignificant. HBR for PLWH is a safe means of addressing the functional deficits experienced by PLWH and appears likely to improve quality of life. A task-shifting approach may be a feasible method of meeting the varied needs of PLWH, while at the same time potentially minimizing costs to already overburdened health care systems.

Life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting combination antiretroviral therapy: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Life expectancy is an important indicator informing decision making in policies relating to HIV-infected people. Studies estimating life expectancy after starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) have noted differences between income regions. The objective of our study was to perform a meta-analysis to assess life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting cART, and to quantify differences between low/middle- and high-income countries.

METHODS

Eight cohort studies estimating life expectancy in HIV-positive people initiating cART aged ≥ 14 years using the abridged life table method were identified. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimated outcomes, overall and by income region. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed with the I² statistic. We estimated additional years of life expected after starting cART at ages 20 and 35 years.

RESULTS

Overall life expectancy in high-income countries was an additional 43.3 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 42.5-44.2 years] and 32.2 years (95% CI 30.9-33.5 years) at ages 20 and 35 years, respectively, and 28.3 (95% CI 23.3-33.3) and 25.6 (95% CI 22.1-29.2) additional years, respectively, in low/middle-income countries. In low/middle-income countries, life expectancy after starting cART at age 20 years was an additional 22.9 years (95% CI 18.4-27.5 years) for men and 33.0 years (95% CI 30.4-35.6 years) for women, but was similar in the two sexes in high-income countries. In all income regions, life expectancy after starting cART increased over calendar time.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the life expectancy of HIV-positive people after starting cART has improved over time. Monitoring life expectancy into the future is important to assess how changes to cART guidelines will affect patient long-term outcomes.

HIV-1-Specific Antibody Response and Function after DNA Prime and Recombinant Adenovirus 5 Boost HIV Vaccine in HIV-Infected Subjects

Little is known about the humoral immune response against DNA prime-recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) boost HIV vaccine among HIV-infected patients on long-term suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART). Previous studies emphasized cellular immune responses; however, current research suggests both cellular and humoral responses are likely required for a successful therapeutic vaccine. Thus, we aimed to understand antibody response and function induced by vaccination of ART-treated HIV-1-infected patients with immune recovery. All subjects participated in EraMune 02, an open-label randomized clinical trial of ART intensification followed by a six plasmid DNA prime (envA, envB, envC, gagB, polB, nefB) and rAd5 boost HIV vaccine with matching inserts. Antibody binding levels were determined with a recently developed microarray approach. We also analyzed neutralization efficiency and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC). We found that the DNA prime-rAd5 boost vaccine induced a significant cross-clade HIV-specific antibody response, which correlated with antibody neutralization efficiency. However, despite the increase in antibody binding levels, the vaccine did not significantly stimulate neutralization or ADCC responses. This finding was also reflected by a lack of change in total CD4+ cell associated HIV DNA in those who received the vaccine. Our results have important implications for further therapeutic vaccine design and administration, especially in HIV-1 infected patients, as boosting of preexisting antibody responses are unlikely to lead to clearance of latent proviruses in the HIV reservoir.

'When you visit a man you should prepare yourself': male community care worker approaches to working with men living with HIV in Cape Town, South Africa

Caring is typically constructed as a feminised practice, resulting in women shouldering the burden of care-related work. Health-seeking behaviours are also constructed as feminine and men have poorer health outcomes globally. Employing men as carers may not only improve the health of the men they assist but also be transformative with regards to gendered constructions of caring. Using semi-structured interviews and observational home visits, this study explored the techniques that community care workers employ when working with male clients. The empirical analysis draws on the perspectives of eight care workers and three of their male clients from the Cape Town area. Interviews reveal how care workers and clients perform and negotiate masculinities as they navigate hegemonic masculine norms that require men to act tough, suppress emotions and deny weakness and sickness. Both parties bump up against ideals of what it means to be a man as they strive to provide care and receive support. Community care workers avoid rupturing client performances of hegemonic masculinities which inhibit confession and support. To do this, they use techniques of indirectly broaching sensitive subjects, acting in a friendly way and being clear about the intention of their work.

The Importance of the Family: A Longitudinal Study of the Predictors of Depression in HIV Patients in South Africa

As a chronic illness, HIV/AIDS requires life-long treatment adherence and retention-and thus sufficient attention to the psychosocial dimensions of chronic disease care in order to produce favourable antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes in a sustainable manner. Given the high prevalence of depression in chronic HIV patients, there is a clear need for further research into the determinants of depression in this population. In order to comprehensively study the predictors of depressive symptoms in HIV patients on ART, the socio-ecological theory postulates to not only incorporate the dominant individual-level and the more recent community-level approaches, but also incorporate the intermediate, but crucial family-level approach. The present study aims to extend the current literature by simultaneously investigating the impact of a wide range individual-level, family-level and community-level determinants of depression in a sample of 435 patients enrolled in the Free State Province of South Africa public-sector ART program. Structural equation modeling is used to explore the relationships between both latent and manifest variables at two time points. Besides a number of individual-level correlates-namely education, internalized and external stigma, and avoidant and seeking social support coping styles-of depressive symptoms in HIV patients on ART, the study also revealed the important role of family functioning in predicting depression. While family attachment emerged as the only factor to continuously and negatively impact depression at both time points, the second dimension of family functioning, changeability, was the only factor to produce a negative cross-lagged effect on depression. The immediate and long-term impact of family functioning on depression draws attention to the role of family dynamics in the mental health of people living with HIV/AIDS. In addition to individual-level and community-based factors, future research activities should also incorporate the role of the family context in research into the mental health of HIV patients, as our results demonstrate that the familial context in which a person with HIV on ART resides is inextricably interconnected with his/her health outcomes.

Glucagon like peptide-1 receptor agonists may ameliorate the metabolic adverse effect associated with antiretroviral therapy

The number of people living with HIV and AIDS (PLWHA) reached to almost 40 million, half of which are under antiretroviral treatment (ART). Although the introduction of this therapy significantly improved the life span and quality of PLWHA, metabolic complications of these people remains to be an important issue. These metabolic complications include hyperlipidemia, abnormal fat redistribution and diabetes mellitus, which are defined as lipodystrophy syndrome. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) is a neuropeptide secreted from intestinal L cells and recently developed GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) stimulate insulin secretion, improve weight control and reduce cardiovascular outcomes. This class of drugs may be a valuable medication in the treatment of HIV-associated metabolic adverse effects and extend the life expectancy of patients infected with HIV.

Cryptococcal meningitis in a tertiary hospital in Pretoria, mortality and risk factors - A retrospective cohort study

Aim This retrospective cohort study analyzes the impact of possible risk factors on the survival chance of patients with cryptococcal meningitis. These factors include the patient's socio-economic background, age, gender, presenting symptoms, comorbidities, laboratory findings and, in particular, non-adherence versus adherence to therapy. Methods Data were collected from all adult patients admitted to Kalafong Hospital with laboratory confirmed cryptococcal meningitis over a period of 24 months. We analyzed the data by the presentation of descriptive summary statistics, logistic regression was used to assess factors which showed association between outcome of measure and factor. Furthermore, multivariable logistic regression analysis using all the factors that showed significant association in the cross tabulation was applied to determine which factors had an impact on the patients' mortality risk. Results A total of 87 patients were identified. All except one were HIV-positive, of which 55.2% were antiretroviral therapy naïve. A history of previous tuberculosis was given by 25 patients (28.7%) and 49 (56.3%) were on tuberculosis treatment at admission or started during their hospital stay. In-hospital mortality was 31%. Statistical analysis showed that antiretroviral therapy naïve patients had 9.9 (CI 95% 1.2-81.2, p < 0.0032) times greater odds of dying compared to those on antiretroviral therapy, with 17 from 48 patients (35.4%) dying compared with 1 out of 21 patients (4.8%) on treatment. Defaulters had 14.7 (CI 95% 1.6-131.6, p < 0.016) times greater odds of dying, with 9 from 18 patients dying (50%), compared to the non-defaulters. In addition, patients who presented with nausea and vomiting had a 6.3 (95% CI 1.7-23.1, p < 0.005) times greater odds of dying (18/47, 38.3%); this remained significant when adjusted for antiretroviral therapy naïve patients and defaulters. Conclusion Cryptococcal meningitis is still a common opportunistic infection in people living with HIV/AIDS resulting in hospitalization and a high mortality. Defaulting antiretroviral therapy and presentation with nausea and vomiting were associated with a significantly increased mortality risk.

Resourcing resilience: social protection for HIV prevention amongst children and adolescents in Eastern and Southern Africa

Adolescents are the only age group with growing AIDS-related morbidity and mortality in Eastern and Southern Africa, making HIV prevention research among this population an urgent priority. Structural deprivations are key drivers of adolescent HIV infection in this region. Biomedical interventions must be combined with behavioural and social interventions to alleviate the socio-structural determinants of HIV infection. There is growing evidence that social protection has the potential to reduce the risk of HIV infection among children and adolescents. This research combined expert consultations with a rigorous review of academic and policy literature on the effectiveness of social protection for HIV prevention among children and adolescents, including prevention for those already HIV-positive. The study had three goals: (i) assess the evidence on the effectiveness of social protection for HIV prevention, (ii) consider key challenges to implementing social protection programmes that promote HIV prevention, and (iii) identify critical research gaps in social protection and HIV prevention, in Eastern and Southern Africa. Causal pathways of inequality, poverty, gender and HIV risk require flexible and responsive social protection mechanisms. Results confirmed that HIV-inclusive child-and adolescent-sensitive social protection has the potential to interrupt risk pathways to HIV infection and foster resilience. In particular, empirical evidence (literature and expert feedback) detailed the effectiveness of combination social protection particularly cash/in-kind components combined with "care" and "capability" among children and adolescents. Social protection programmes should be dynamic and flexible, and consider age, gender, HIV-related stigma, and context, including cultural norms, which offer opportunities to improve programmatic coverage, reach and uptake. Effective HIV prevention also requires integrated social protection policies, developed through strong national government ownership and leadership. Future research should explore which combinations of social protection work for sub-groups of children and adolescents, particularly those living with HIV.

Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012.

METHODS

We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15-49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey.

FINDINGS

All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5-20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (difference 1·9, 95% CI -0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI -0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15-24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54-2·12 million. However, the differential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73-2·71).

INTERPRETATION

Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. Additional data about service provision for HIV care could help inform more accurate projections.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influences in fertility decisions among HIV-infected individuals in Lilongwe, Malawi: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

The motivation to have a child may be complex with numerous influencing factors, particularly among individuals living with HIV. This study sought to understand factors influencing fertility decision-making for HIV-infected men and women in Lilongwe, Malawi.

METHODS

Thirteen focus groups were conducted among HIV-infected individuals enrolled in antiretroviral treatment services.

RESULTS

Participants identified a hierarchy of influences in fertility decisions including the importance of childbearing, patriarchal influence, family influences and concern regarding HIV transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Addressing fertility conversations beyond the confines of a relationship may be important, as family plays a significant role in fertility choices. Childbearing remains a fundamental desire among many individuals with HIV; however, concerns regarding transmission risk need to be addressed with efforts made to overcome misconception and assist individuals in balancing what may be competing influences.

Incidence and predictors of hypertension in adults with HIV-initiating antiretroviral therapy in south-western Uganda

OBJECTIVE

The successful scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa has led to increasing life expectancy, and thus increased risk of hypertension. We aimed to describe the incidence and predictors of hypertension in HIV patients receiving ART at a publicly funded clinic in rural Uganda.

METHODS

We abstracted data from medical records of adult patients who initiated ART at an HIV clinic in south-western Uganda during 2010-2012. We defined hypertension as at least two consecutive clinical visits, with a SBP at least 140 mmHg and/or SBP of at least 90 mmHg, or prescription for an antihypertensive medication. We calculated the incidence of hypertension and fit multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models to identify predictors of hypertension.

RESULTS

A total of 3389 patients initiated ART without a prior diagnosis of hypertension during the observation period. Over 3990 person-years of follow-up, 445 patients developed hypertension, for a crude incidence of 111.5/1000 (95% confidence interval 101.9-121.7) person-years. Rates were highest among men aged at least 40 years (158.8 per/1000 person-years) and lowest in women aged 30-39 years (80/1000 person-years). Lower CD4 cell count at ART initiation, as well as traditional risk factors including male sex, increasing age, and obesity, were independently associated with hypertension.

CONCLUSION

We observed a high incidence of hypertension in HIV-infected persons on ART in rural Uganda, and increased risk with lower nadir CD4 cell counts. Our findings call for increased attention to screening of and treatment for hypertension, along with continued prioritization of early ART initiation.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Heart Failure in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Successful combination therapy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has transformed this disease from a short-lived infection with high mortality to a chronic disease associated with increasing life expectancy. This is true for high- as well as low- and middle-income countries. As a result of this increased life expectancy, people living with HIV are now at risk of developing other chronic diseases associated with aging. Heart failure has been common among people living with HIV in the eras of pre- and post- availability of antiretroviral therapy; however, our current understanding of the pathogenesis and approaches to management have not been systematically addressed. HIV may cause heart failure through direct (e.g., viral replication, mitochondrial dysfunction, cardiac autoimmunity, autonomic dysfunction) and indirect (e.g., opportunistic infections, antiretroviral therapy, alcohol abuse, micronutrient deficiency, tobacco use) pathways. In low- and middle-income countries, 2 large observational studies have recently reported clinical characteristics and outcomes in these patients. HIV-associated heart failure remains a common cardiac diagnosis in people living with heart failure, yet a unifying set of diagnostic criteria is lacking. Treatment patterns for heart failure fall short of society guidelines. Although there may be promise in cardiac glycosides for treating heart failure in people living with HIV, clinical studies are needed to validate in vitro findings. Owing to the burden of HIV in low- and middle-income countries and the concurrent rise of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, strategic and concerted efforts in this area are likely to impact the care of people living with HIV around the globe.

Population-Based Estimates of Life Expectancy After HIV Diagnosis: United States 2008-2011

INTRODUCTION

Using National HIV surveillance system data, we estimated life expectancy and average years of life lost (AYLL) among persons diagnosed with HIV infection during 2008-2011.

METHODS

Population-based surveillance data, restricted to persons with diagnosed HIV infection aged 13 years or older, from all 50 states and Washington, D.C. were used to estimate life expectancy after HIV diagnosis using the life table method. Generated estimates were compared with life expectancy in the general population in the same calendar year to calculate AYLL. Life expectancy and AYLL were also estimated for subgroups by age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

The overall life expectancy after HIV diagnosis in the United States increased by 3.43 years from 25.43 (95% CI: 25.37 to 25.49) in 2008 to 28.86 (95% CI: 28.80 to 28.92) in 2011. Improvements were observed irrespective of sex, race/ethnicity, transmission category, and stage of disease at diagnosis, though the extent of improvement varied by different characteristics. Based on the life expectancy in the general population, in 2010, the AYLL were 12.8 years for males and 16.5 years for females. By race/ethnicity, on average, blacks (13.3 years) and whites (13.4 years) had fewer AYLL than Hispanics/Latinos (14.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite improvements in life expectancy among people diagnosed with an HIV infection during 2008-2011, disparities by sex and by race/ethnicity persist. Targeted efforts should continue to further reduce disparities and improve life expectancy after HIV diagnosis.

"When the skies fight": HIV, violence and pathways of precarity in South Africa

Based on multi-sited ethnographic fieldwork in South Africa, this article explores the skies that fight, the proverbial lightning strikes that bring HIV into women's lives and bodies. Departing from earlier studies on ARV programmes in and beyond South Africa, and broadening out to explore the chronic struggle for life in a context of entrenched socio-economic inequality, this article presents findings on women's embodiment of and strategic resistance to structural and interpersonal violence. These linked forms of violence are discussed in light of the concept of precarity. Across two sections, the findings trace the pathways through which precarity entered women's lives, drawing on verbal, visual and written accounts collected through participant observation, participatory photography and film, and journey mapping. In doing so, the ethnography articulates the intersection of structural and interpersonal violence in women's lives. It also reveals the extent to which women exert a 'constrained agency', on the one hand, to resist structural violence and reconfigure their political relationship with the state through health activism; and, on the other hand, to shift the gender dynamics that fuel interpersonal violence through a careful navigation of intimacy and independence.

Cost-effectiveness of Injectable Preexposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Long-acting injectable antiretrovirals such as rilpivirine (RPV) could promote adherence to preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention. However, the cost-effectiveness of injectable PrEP is unclear.

METHODS

We constructed a dynamic model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and analyzed scenarios of RPV PrEP scale-up for combination HIV prevention in comparison with a reference scenario without PrEP. We estimated new HIV infections, life-years and costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), over 10-year and lifetime horizons, assuming a societal perspective.

RESULTS

Compared with no PrEP, unprioritized scale-up of RVP PrEP covering 2.5%-15% of adults prevented up to 9% of new infections over 10 years. HIV prevention doubled (17%) when the same coverage was prioritized to 20- to 29-year-old women, costing $10 880-$19 213 per infection prevented. Prioritization of PrEP to 80% of individuals at highest behavioral risk achieved comparable prevention (4%-8%) at <1% overall coverage, costing $298-$1242 per infection prevented. Over lifetime, PrEP scale-up among 20- to 29-year-old women was very cost-effective (<$1600 per life-year gained), dominating unprioritized PrEP, while risk prioritization was cost-saving. PrEP's 10-year impact decreased by almost 50% with increases in ICERs (up to 4.2-fold) in conservative base-case analysis. Sensitivity analysis identified PrEP's costs, efficacy, and reliability of delivery as the principal drivers of uncertainty in PrEP's cost-effectiveness, and PrEP remained cost-effective under the assumption of universal access to second-line antiretroviral therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with no PrEP, prioritized scale-up of RPV PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal could be very cost-effective or cost-saving, but suboptimal PrEP would erode benefits and increase costs.

Socio-economic differences in HIV/AIDS mortality in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To quantify socio-economic differences in the risk of HIV/AIDS mortality in South Africa for different measures of socio-economic status.

METHODS

Systematic literature search in Web of Knowledge and PubMed. Measures of relative risk (RR) were pooled separately for education, income, assets score and employment status as measures of socio-economic status, using inverse-variance weighted DerSimonian-Laird random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Ten studies were eligible for inclusion comprising over 175 000 participants and 6700 deaths. For income (RR 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-2.09), assets score (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.12-2.36) and employment status (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.21-1.92), persons of low socio-economic status had an over 50% higher risk of dying from HIV/AIDS. The RR of 1.10 for education was not significant (95% CI 0.74-1.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should identify effective strategies to reduce HIV/AIDS mortality and alleviate the consequences of HIV/AIDS deaths, particularly for poorer households.

Clinical and Virologic Outcomes After Changes in First Antiretroviral Regimen at 7 Sites in the Caribbean, Central and South America Network

BACKGROUND

HIV-infected persons in resource-limited settings may experience high rates of antiretroviral therapy (ART) change, particularly because of toxicity or other nonfailure reasons. Few reports address patient outcomes after these modifications.

METHODS

HIV-infected adults from the 7 Caribbean, Central and South America network clinical cohorts who modified >1 drug from the first ART regimen (ART-1) for any reason thereby starting a second regimen (ART-2) were included. We assessed cumulative incidence of, and factors associated with, death, virologic failure (VF), and regimen change after starting ART-2.

RESULTS

Five thousand five hundred sixty-five ART-naive highly active ART initiators started ART-2 after a median of 9.8 months on ART-1; 39% changed to ART-2 because of toxicity and 11% because of failure. Median follow-up after starting ART-2 was 2.9 years; 45% subsequently modified ART-2. Cumulative incidences of death at 1, 3, and 5 years after starting ART-2 were 5.1%, 8.4%, and 10.5%, respectively. In adjusted analyses, death was associated with older age, clinical AIDS, lower CD4 at ART-2 start, earlier calendar year, and starting ART-2 because of toxicity (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.5 vs. failure, 95% confidence interval: 1.0 to 2.1). Cumulative incidences of VF after 1, 3, and 5 years were 9%, 19%, and 25%. In adjusted analyses, VF was associated with younger age, earlier calendar year, lower CD4 at the start of ART-2, and starting ART-2 because of failure (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.1 vs. toxicity, 95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 2.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients modifying the first ART regimen, risks of subsequent modifications, mortality, and virologic failure were high. Access to improved antiretrovirals in the region is needed to improve initial treatment success.

Potential Clinical and Economic Value of Long-Acting Preexposure Prophylaxis for South African Women at High-Risk for HIV Infection

BACKGROUND

For young South African women at risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is one of the few effective prevention options available. Long-acting injectable PrEP, which is in development, may be associated with greater adherence, compared with that for existing standard oral PrEP formulations, but its likely clinical benefits and additional costs are unknown.

METHODS

Using a computer simulation, we compared the following 3 PrEP strategies: no PrEP, standard PrEP (effectiveness, 62%; cost per patient, $150/year), and long-acting PrEP (effectiveness, 75%; cost per patient, $220/year) in South African women at high risk for HIV infection (incidence of HIV infection, 5%/year). We examined the sensitivity of the strategies to changes in key input parameters among several outcome measures, including deaths averted and program cost over a 5-year period; lifetime HIV infection risk, survival rate, and program cost and cost-effectiveness; and budget impact.

RESULTS

Compared with no PrEP, standard PrEP and long-acting PrEP cost $580 and $870 more per woman, respectively, and averted 15 and 16 deaths per 1000 women at high risk for infection, respectively, over 5 years. Measured on a lifetime basis, both standard PrEP and long-acting PrEP were cost saving, compared with no PrEP. Compared with standard PrEP, long-acting PrEP was very cost-effective ($150/life-year saved) except under the most pessimistic assumptions. Over 5 years, long-acting PrEP cost $1.6 billion when provided to 50% of eligible women.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently available standard PrEP is a cost-saving intervention whose delivery should be expanded and optimized. Long-acting PrEP will likely be a very cost-effective improvement over standard PrEP but may require novel financing mechanisms that bring short-term fiscal planning efforts into closer alignment with longer-term societal objectives.

Effectiveness of and Financial Returns to Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in South Africa: An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Empirical studies and population-level policy simulations show the importance of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in generalized epidemics. This paper complements available scenario-based studies (projecting costs and outcomes over some policy period, typically spanning decades) by adopting an incremental approach-analyzing the expected consequences of circumcising one male individual with specific characteristics in a specific year. This approach yields more precise estimates of VMMC's cost-effectiveness and identifies the outcomes of current investments in VMMC (e.g., within a fiscal budget period) rather than of investments spread over the entire policy period.

METHODS/FINDINGS

The model has three components. We adapted the ASSA2008 model, a demographic and epidemiological model of the HIV epidemic in South Africa, to analyze the impact of one VMMC on HIV incidence over time and across the population. A costing module tracked the costs of VMMC and the resulting financial savings owing to reduced HIV incidence over time. Then, we used several financial indicators to assess the cost-effectiveness of and financial return on investments in VMMC. One circumcision of a young man up to age 20 prevents on average over 0.2 HIV infections, but this effect declines steeply with age, e.g., to 0.08 by age 30. Net financial savings from one VMMC at age 20 are estimated at US$617 at a discount rate of 5% and are lower for circumcisions both at younger ages (because the savings occur later and are discounted more) and at older ages (because male circumcision becomes less effective). Investments in male circumcision carry a financial rate of return of up to 14.5% (for circumcisions at age 20). The cost of a male circumcision is refinanced fastest, after 13 y, for circumcisions at ages 20 to 25. Principal limitations of the analysis arise from the long time (decades) over which the effects of VMMC unfold-the results are therefore sensitive to the discount rate applied, and more generally to the future course of the epidemic and of HIV/AIDS-related policies pursued by the government.

CONCLUSIONS

VMMC in South Africa is highly effective in reducing both HIV incidence and the financial costs of the HIV response. The return on investment is highest if males are circumcised between ages 20 and 25, but this return on investment declines steeply with age.

Advanced HIV disease at presentation to care in Nairobi, Kenya: late diagnosis or delayed linkage to care?--a cross-sectional study

Background

Presenting to care with advanced HIV is common in sub-Saharan Africa and increases the risk of severe disease and death; however, it remains unclear whether this is a consequence of late diagnosis or a delay in seeking care after diagnosis. The objectives of this cross-sectional study were to determine factors associated with advanced HIV at presentation to care and whether this was due to late diagnosis or delays in accessing care.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2015, adults presenting to care were recruited at two clinics in low-income areas of Nairobi, Kenya. Participants were considered to have advanced HIV if their CD4 count was below 200 cells/μL, or they were in WHO stage 4. Information on previous HIV diagnoses was collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Logistic regression was used to determine the association between clinical and socio-demographic factors and advanced HIV.

Results

Of 753 participants presenting to HIV care, 248 (33 %) had advanced HIV. Almost 60 % (146/248) of those presenting with advanced HIV had been previously diagnosed, most of whom (102/145; 70 %) presented to care within three months of their initial diagnosis. The median time to presentation to HIV care after an initial diagnosis was 22 days (IQR 6-147) for those with advanced HIV, compared to 19 days (IQR 4-119) for those with non-advanced HIV (p = 0.716). Clinic (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.55, 95 % CI 1.09–2.20) and age (AOR 1.72 per unit increase in age category, 95 % CI 1.45–2.03) were associated with presenting with advanced HIV.

Conclusions

Presentation to care with advanced HIV was primarily due to delayed diagnosis, rather than delayed linkage to care after diagnosis. Variation by clinic suggests that outreach and other community-based efforts may drive earlier testing and linkage to care. Our findings highlight the ongoing importance of implementing strategies to encourage earlier HIV diagnosis, particularly among adults 30 years and older.

Changes in self-reported HIV testing during South Africa's 2010/2011 national testing campaign: gains and shortfalls

Objectives

HIV counselling and testing is critical to HIV prevention and treatment efforts. Mass campaigns may be an effective strategy to increase HIV testing in countries with generalized HIV epidemics. We assessed the self-reported uptake of HIV testing among individuals who had never previously tested for HIV, particularly those in high-risk populations, during the period of a national, multisector testing campaign in South Africa (April 2010 and June 2011).

Design

This study was a prospective cohort study.

Methods

We analyzed data from two waves (2010/2011, n=16,893; 2012, n=18,707) of the National Income Dynamics Study, a nationally representative cohort that enabled prospective identification of first-time testers. We quantified the number of adults (15 years and older) testing for the first time nationally. To assess whether the campaign reached previously underserved populations, we examined changes in HIV testing coverage by age, gender, race and province sub-groups. We also estimated multivariable logistic regression models to identify socio-economic and demographic predictors of first-time testing.

Results

Overall, the proportion of adults ever tested for HIV increased from 43.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41.48, 45.96) to 65.2% (95% CI: 63.28, 67.10) over the study period, with approximately 7.6 million (95% CI: 6,387,910; 8,782,986) first-time testers. Among black South Africans, the country's highest HIV prevalence sub-group, HIV testing coverage improved among poorer and healthier individuals, thus reducing gradients in testing by wealth and health. In contrast, HIV testing coverage remained lower for men, younger individuals and the less educated, indicating persistent if not widening disparities by gender, age and education. Large geographic disparities in coverage also remained as of 2012.

Conclusions

Mass provision of HIV testing services can be effective in increasing population coverage of HIV testing. The geographic and socio-economic disparities in programme impacts can help guide best practices for future efforts. These efforts should focus on hard-to-reach populations, including men and less-educated individuals.

Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure.

RESULTS

The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years.

CONCLUSION

The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Early HAART Initiation May Not Reduce Actual Reproduction Number and Prevalence of MSM Infection: Perspectives from Coupled within- and between-Host Modelling Studies of Chinese MSM Populations

Having a thorough understanding of the infectivity of HIV, time of initiating treatment and emergence of drug resistant virus variants is crucial in mitigating HIV infection. There are many challenges to evaluating the long-term effect of the Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) on disease transmission at the population level. We proposed an individual based model by coupling within-host dynamics and between-host dynamics and conduct stochastic simulation in the group of men who have sex with men (MSM). The mean actual reproduction number is estimated to be 3.6320 (95% confidence interval: [3.46, 3.80]) for MSM group without treatment. Stochastic simulations show that given relatively high (low) level of drug efficacy after emergence of drug resistant variants, early initiation of treatment leads to a less (greater) actual reproduction number, lower (higher) prevalence and less (more) incidences, compared to late initiation of treatment. This implies early initiation of HAART may not always lower the actual reproduction number and prevalence of infection, depending on the level of treatment efficacy after emergence of drug resistant virus variants, frequency of high-risk behaviors and etc. This finding strongly suggests early initiation of HAART should be implemented with great care especially in the settings where the effective drugs are limited. Coupling within-host dynamics with between-host dynamics can provide critical information about impact of HAART on disease transmission and thus help to assist treatment strategy design and HIV/AIDS prevention and control.

Recent developments in the effort to cure HIV infection: going beyond N = 1

Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) can suppress plasma HIV to undetectable levels, allowing HIV-infected individuals who are treated early a nearly normal life span. Despite the clear ability of ART to prevent morbidity and mortality, it is not curative. Even in individuals who have full suppression of viral replication on ART, there are resting memory CD4+ T cells that harbor stably integrated HIV genomes, which are capable of producing infectious virus upon T cell activation. This latent viral reservoir is considered the primary obstacle to the development of an HIV cure, and recent efforts in multiple areas of HIV research have been brought to bear on the development of strategies to eradicate or develop a functional cure for HIV. Reviews in this series detail progress in our understanding of the molecular and cellular mechanisms of viral latency, efforts to accurately assess the size and composition of the latent reservoir, the characterization and development of HIV-targeted broadly neutralizing antibodies and cytolytic T lymphocytes, and animal models for the study HIV latency and therapeutic strategies.

Brief Report: Does Most Mortality in Patients on ART Occur in Care or After Lost to Follow-Up? Evidence From the Themba Lethu Clinic, South Africa

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

In resource-limited settings, early mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approximately 10%; yet, it is unclear how much of that mortality occurs in care or after lost to follow-up. We assessed mortality rates and predictors of death among 12,222 nonpregnant ART-naive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and May 2012 in South Africa, stratified by person-years in care and lost. We found 14.6% of patients died and being lost accounted for a minority of deaths across multiple definitions of loss (population attributable-risk percent ranged from 10.4% to 42.5%). Although mortality rates in patients lost were much higher than in care, most ART-related mortality occurred on treatment.

Treatment Failure, Drug Resistance, and CD4 T-Cell Count Decline Among Postpartum Women on Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

BACKGROUND

We assessed HIV RNA suppression, resistance, and CD4 T-cell count 12 months postpartum among pregnant women retained in care in an observational cohort study.

METHODS

We prospectively followed two groups of HIV-infected pregnant women--with or without tuberculosis--recruited from prenatal clinics in South Africa. Women who received antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy and reported being on therapy 12 months postpartum were included. Serum samples from women with HIV viremia 12 months postpartum were tested for drug resistance.

RESULTS

Of 103 women in the study, median age and CD4 T-cell count at enrollment were 29 years [interquartile range (IQR): 26-32] and 317 cells per cubic millimeter (IQR: 218-385), respectively; 43 (42%) had tuberculosis at baseline. During pregnancy, 87% of the women achieved an HIV RNA <400 copies per milliliter compared with 71% at 12 months postpartum (P < 0.001). Factors independently associated with an HIV RNA <400 copies per milliliter at 12 months were age ≥ 30 years, detectable plasma efavirenz concentration, and HIV RNA <400 copies per milliliter while pregnant; there was a trend toward both a detectable viral load and peripartum depression. HIV drug resistance results were available from 25 women, and 12 (48%) had major drug resistance mutations. CD4 T-cell count declined a median of 13 cells per cubic millimeter (IQR: -66 to 140) from delivery to 12 months in women with viremia at 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Success with maintaining virologic control declined postpartum among HIV-infected women who remained in care and on antiretroviral therapy, and CD4 T-cell count decline and drug resistance were common.

Caution When Diagnosing Your Mouse With Schizophrenia: The Use and Misuse of Model Animals for Understanding Psychiatric Disorders

Animal models are widely used in biomedical research, but their applicability to psychiatric disorders is less clear. There are several reasons for this, including 1) emergent features of psychiatric illness that are not captured by the sum of individual symptoms, 2) a lack of equivalency between model animal behavior and human psychiatric symptoms, and 3) the possibility that model organisms do not have (and may not be capable of having) the same illnesses as humans. Here, we discuss the effective use, and inherent limitations, of model animals for psychiatric research. As disrupted-in-schizophrenia 1 (DISC1) is a genetic risk factor across a spectrum of psychiatric disorders, we focus on the results of studies using mice with various mutations of DISC1. The data from a broad range of studies show remarkable consistency with the effects of DISC1 mutation on developmental/anatomical endophenotypes. However, when one expands the phenotype to include behavioral correlates of human psychiatric diseases, much of this consistency ends. Despite these challenges, model animals remain valuable for understanding the basic brain processes that underlie psychiatric diseases. We argue that model animals have great potential to help us understand the core neurobiological dysfunction underlying psychiatric disorders and that marrying genetics and brain circuits with behavior is a good way forward.

Dysregulated Immune Activation in Second-Line HAART HIV+ Patients Is Similar to That of Untreated Patients

Background

Successful highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has changed the outcome of AIDS patients worldwide because the complete suppression of viremia improves health and prolongs life expectancy of HIV-1+ patients. However, little attention has been given to the immunological profile of patients under distinct HAART regimens. This work aimed to investigate the differences in the immunological pattern of HIV-1+ patients under the first- or second-line HAART in Brazil.

Methods

CD4+ T cell counts, Viral load, and plasma concentration of sCD14, sCD163, MCP-1, RANTES, IP-10, IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α, IL-12, IFN-α, IFN-γ, IL-4, IL-5, and IL-10 were assessed for immunological characterization of the following clinical groups: Non-infected individuals (NI; n = 66), HIV-1+ untreated (HIV; n = 46), HIV-1+ treated with first-line HAART (HAART 1; n = 15); and HIV-1+ treated with second-line HAART (HAART 2; n = 15).

Results

We found that the immunological biosignature pattern of HAART 1 is similar to that of NI individuals, especially in patients presenting slow progression of the disease, while patients under HAART 2 remain in a moderate inflammatory state, which is similar to that of untreated HIV patients pattern. Network correlations revealed that differences in IP-10, TNF-α, IL-6, IFN-α, and IL-10 interactions were primordial in HIV disease and treatment. Heat map and decision tree analysis identified that IP-10>TNF-α>IFN-α were the best respective HAART segregation biomarkers.

Conclusion

HIV patients in different HAART regimens develop distinct immunological biosignature, introducing a novel perspective into disease outcome and potential new therapies that consider HAART patients as a heterogeneous group.

CD4 count-based failure criteria combined with viral load monitoring may trigger worse switch decisions than viral load monitoring alone

OBJECTIVE

CD4 count decline often triggers antiretroviral regimen switches in resource-limited settings, even when viral load testing is available. We therefore compared CD4 failure and CD4 trends in patients with viraemia with or without antiretroviral resistance.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study investigating the association of HIV drug resistance with CD4 failure or CD4 trends in patients on first-line antiretroviral regimens during viraemia. Patients with viraemia (HIV RNA >1000 copies/ml) from two HIV treatment programmes in South Africa (n = 350) were included. We investigated the association of M184V and NNRTI resistance with WHO immunological failure criteria and CD4 count trends, using chi-square tests and linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Fewer patients with the M184V mutation reached immunologic failure criteria than those without: 51 of 151(34%) vs. 90 of 199 (45%) (P = 0.03). Similarly, 79 of 220 (36%) patients, who had major NNRTI resistance, had immunological failure, whereas 62 of 130 (48%) without (chi-square P = 0.03) did. The CD4 count decline among patients with the M184V mutation was 2.5 cells/mm(3) /year, whereas in those without M184V it was 14 cells/mm(3) /year (P = 0.1), but the difference in CD4 count decline with and without NNRTI resistance was marginal.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that CD4 count monitoring may lead to inappropriate delayed therapy switches for patients with HIV drug resistance. Conversely, patients with viraemia but no drug resistance are more likely to have a CD4 count decline and thus may be more likely to be switched to a second-line regimen.

HIV-Related Medical Admissions to a South African District Hospital Remain Frequent Despite Effective Antiretroviral Therapy Scale-Up

The public sector scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa commenced in 2004. We aimed to describe the hospital-level disease burden and factors contributing to morbidity and mortality among hospitalized HIV-positive patients in the era of widespread ART availability. Between June 2012 and October 2013, unselected patients admitted to medical wards at a public sector district hospital in Cape Town were enrolled in this cross-sectional study with prospective follow-up. HIV testing was systematically offered and HIV-infected patients were systematically screened for TB. The spectrum of admission diagnoses among HIV-positive patients was documented, vital status at 90 and 180 days ascertained and factors independently associated with death determined. Among 1018 medical admissions, HIV status was ascertained in 99.5%: 60.1% (n = 609) were HIV-positive and 96.1% (n = 585) were enrolled. Of these, 84.4% were aware of their HIV-positive status before admission. ART status was naive in 35.7%, current in 45.0%, and interrupted in 19.3%. The most frequent primary clinical diagnoses were newly diagnosed TB (n = 196, 33.5%), other bacterial infection (n = 100, 17.1%), and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining illnesses other than TB (n = 64, 10.9%). By 90 days follow-up, 175 (29.9%) required readmission and 78 (13.3%) died. Commonest causes of death were TB (37.2%) and other AIDS-defining illnesses (24.4%). Independent predictors of mortality were AIDS-defining illnesses other than TB, low hemoglobin, and impaired renal function. HIV still accounts for nearly two-thirds of medical admissions in this South African hospital and is associated with high mortality. Strategies to improve linkage to care, ART adherence/retention and TB prevention are key to reducing HIV-related hospitalizations in this setting.

Sexual behaviour of people living with HIV attending a tertiary care government hospital in Kathmandu, Nepal: a cross sectional study

Background

Clinical improvements that follow antiretroviral therapy (ART) may lead to increase or resumption of high risk activities that could unintentionally result in HIV transmission. The objective was to investigate whether treatment status is a significant predictor of sexual risk behaviour (unprotected sex).

Methods

A cross sectional study was conducted among 160 people living with HIV (PLHIV) (89 ART experienced and 71 ART naïve) attending Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital in Kathmandu, Nepal. A structured questionnaire was used for data collection. Logistic regression with stepwise modeling was used to obtain adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95 % CI.

Results

In this study, 92 % of sexually active respondents reported sex with a regular partner. ART experienced PLHIV were significantly more likely to report consistent condom use with their regular partners compared to ART naïve PLHIV (83 vs. 53 %; P = 0.006) during the past six months. In multivariate analysis, sex (OR = 4.59, 95 % CI: 1.15–18.39), treatment status (OR = 4.76, 95 % CI: 1.29–17.52) and alcohol consumption during last sex with regular partners (OR = 14.75, 95 % CI: 2.75–79.29) were significantly associated with unprotected sex.

Conclusion

ART naïve PLHIV were five times more likely to exhibit sexual risk behaviour (have unprotected sex) than ART experienced PLHIV. Thus the study provided no evidence to suggest that ART experienced PLHIV exhibit greater sexual risk behaviour compared to ART naïve PLHIV. Prevention programmes need to emphasize on counselling to PLHIV and their regular partners with focused interventions such as couple counselling and education programmes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13104-015-1559-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Missing Men: HIV Treatment Scale-Up and Life Expectancy in Sub-Saharan Africa

In a Perspective accompanying Bor and colleagues, Alexander Tsai and Mark Siedner discuss the gender gap in ART uptake and HIV mortality in Africa.

Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Women have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed--at the population level--whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually. Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82-1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60-0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Mass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female-male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.

Life expectancy among HIV-positive patients in Rwanda: a retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Rwanda has achieved substantial progress in scaling up of antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to assess the effect of increased access to antiretroviral therapy on life expectancy among HIV-positive patients in two distinct periods of lower and higher antiretroviral therapy coverage (1997-2007 and 2008-11).

METHODS

In a retrospective observational cohort study, we collected clinical and demographic data for all HIV-positive patients enrolled in care at 110 health facilities across all five provinces of Rwanda. We included patients aged 15 years or older with a known enrolment date between 1997 and 2014. We constructed abridged life tables from age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy stratified by sex, CD4 cell count, and WHO disease stage at enrolment in care and initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

FINDINGS

We included 72,061 patients in this study, contributing 213,983 person-years of follow-up. The crude mortality rate was 33·4 deaths per 1000 person-years (95% CI 32·7-34·2). Life expectancy for the overall cohort was 25·6 additional years (95% CI 25·1-26·1) at 20 years of age and 23·3 additional years (95% CI 22·9-23·7) at 35 years of age. Life expectancy at 20 years of age in the period of 1997-2007 was 20·4 additional years (95% CI 19·5-21·3); for the period of 2008-11, life expectancy had increased to 25·6 additional years (95% CI 24·8-26·4). Individuals enrolling in care with CD4 cell counts of 500 cells per μL or more, and with WHO disease stage I, had the highest life expectancies.

INTERPRETATION

This study adds to the growing body of evidence showing the benefit to HIV-positive patients of early enrolment in care and initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Temporal trends in TB notification rates during ART scale-up in Cape Town: an ecological analysis

INTRODUCTION

Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces individual tuberculosis (TB) risk by two-thirds, the population-level impact remains uncertain. Cape Town reports high TB notification rates associated with endemic HIV. We examined population trends in TB notification rates during a 10-year period of expanding ART.

METHODS

Annual Cape Town TB notifications were used as numerators and mid-year Cape Town populations as denominators. HIV-stratified population was calculated using overall HIV prevalence estimates from the Actuarial Society of South Africa AIDS and Demographic model. ART provision numbers from Western Cape government reports were used to calculate overall ART coverage. We calculated rates per 100,000 population over time, overall and stratified by HIV status. Rates per 100,000 total population were also calculated by ART use at treatment initiation. Absolute numbers of notifications were compared by age and sub-district. Changes over time were described related to ART provision in the city as a whole (ART coverage) and by sub-district (numbers on ART).

RESULTS

From 2003 to 2013, Cape Town's population grew from 3.1 to 3.7 million inhabitants, and estimated HIV prevalence increased from 3.6 to 5.2%. ART coverage increased from 0 to 63% in 2013. TB notification rates declined by 16% (95% confidence interval (CI), 14-17%) from a 2008 peak (851/100,000) to a 2013 nadir (713/100,000). Decreases were higher among the HIV-positive (21% (95% CI, 19-23%)) than the HIV-negative (9% (95% CI, 7-11%)) population. The number of HIV-positive TB notifications decreased mainly among 0- to 4- and 20- to 34-year-olds. Total population rates on ART at TB treatment initiation increased over time but levelled off in 2013. Overall median CD4 counts increased from 146 cells/µl (interquartile range (IQR), 66, 264) to 178 cells/µl (IQR 75, 330; p<0.001). Sub-district antenatal HIV seroprevalence differed (10-33%) as did numbers on ART (9-29 thousand). Across sub-districts, infant HIV-positive TB decreased consistently whereas adult decreases varied.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-positive TB notification rates declined during a period of rapid scale-up of ART. Nevertheless, both HIV-positive and HIV-negative TB notification rates remained very high. Decreases among HIV positives were likely blunted by TB remaining a major entry to the ART programme and occurring after delayed ART initiation.