Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory

Many species are experiencing sustained environmental change mainly due to human activities. The unusual rate and extent of anthropogenic alterations of the environment may exceed the capacity of developmental, genetic, and demographic mechanisms that populations have evolved to deal with environmental change. To begin to understand the limits to population persistence, we present a simple evolutionary model for the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. We use this model to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables. Two key parameters relating the environment to population biology have not yet received sufficient attention. Phenotypic plasticity, the direct influence of environment on the development of individual phenotypes, is increasingly considered an important component of phenotypic change in the wild and should be incorporated in models of population persistence. Environmental sensitivity of selection, the change in the optimum phenotype with the environment, still crucially needs empirical assessment. We use environmental tolerance curves and other examples of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to illustrate how these mechanistic approaches can be developed for predictive purposes.

Demographic and genetic constraints on evolution

Populations unable to evolve to selectively favored states are constrained. Genetic constraints occur when additive genetic variance in selectively favored directions is absent (absolute constraints) or present but small (quantitative constraints). Quantitative--unlike absolute--constraints are presumed surmountable given time. This ignores that a population might become extinct before reaching the favored state, in which case demography effectively converts a quantitative into an absolute constraint. Here, we derive criteria for predicting when such conversions occur. We model the demography and evolution of populations subject to optimizing selection that experience either a single shift or a constant change in the optimum. In the single-shift case, we consider whether a population can evolve significantly without declining or else declines temporarily while avoiding low sizes consistent with high extinction risk. We analyze when populations in constantly changing environments evolve sufficiently to ensure long-term growth. From these, we derive formulas for critical levels of genetic variability that define demography-caused absolute constraints. The formulas depend on estimable properties of fitness, population size, or environmental change rates. Each extends to selection on multivariate traits. Our criteria define the nearly null space of a population's G matrix, the set of multivariate directions effectively inaccessible to it via adaptive evolution.

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold temperature); and (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-yr periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators.

Variation in the hatching behaviour of Nematodirus battus: polymorphic bet hedging?

Previous work on the transmission dynamics of Nematodirus battus, an important nematode parasite of farmed ruminants in temperate regions, suggests that it operates a bet-hedging strategy. Hatching of cold-sensitised eggs is concentrated in spring, while alternative hatching of non-cold-sensitised eggs in autumn mitigates the risk of poor conditions for hatching in spring or host absence during peak larval availability. Isolates from Scotland showed much less propensity to hatch without chilling than the previously characterised isolate from southern England. Nematodirus battus eggs from a hill farm in Scotland showed intermediate proportions of non-chilled hatching, perhaps related to unpredictability of climate at higher altitudes. Geographic polymorphism in larval behaviour appears to be present in the form of differing chilling requirements for egg hatching. Since bet-hedging through trait diversification is a plausible and demonstrated strategy for coping with environmental unpredictability, it is a likely target for adaptation to climate change. Predictions of disease epidemiology in a changing climate should incorporate parasite adaptation, but further theoretical and empirical characterisations of likely evolutionary responses are needed before this is possible for the most economically important systems.

Hutchinson's duality: the once and future niche

The duality between "niche" and "biotope" proposed by G. Evelyn Hutchinson provides a powerful way to conceptualize and analyze biogeographical distributions in relation to spatial environmental patterns. Both Joseph Grinnell and Charles Elton had attributed niches to environments. Attributing niches, instead, to species, allowed Hutchinson's key innovation: the formal severing of physical place from environment that is expressed by the duality. In biogeography, the physical world (a spatial extension of what Hutchinson called the biotope) is conceived as a map, each point (or cell) of which is characterized by its geographical coordinates and the local values of n environmental attributes at a given time. Exactly the same n environmental attributes define the corresponding niche space, as niche axes, allowing reciprocal projections between the geographic distribution of a species, actual or potential, past or future, and its niche. In biogeographical terms, the realized niche has come to express not only the effects of species interactions (as Hutchinson intended), but also constraints of dispersal limitation and the lack of contemporary environments corresponding to parts of the fundamental niche. Hutchinson's duality has been used to classify and map environments; model potential species distributions under past, present, and future climates; study the distributions of invasive species; discover new species; and simulate increasingly more realistic worlds, leading to spatially explicit, stochastic models that encompass speciation, extinction, range expansion, and evolutionary adaptation to changing environments.

The interaction of multiple environmental stressors affects adaptation to a novel habitat in the natterjack toad Bufo calamita

The potential to adapt to novel environmental conditions is a key area of interest for evolutionary biology. However, the role of multiple selection pressures on adaptive responses has rarely been investigated in natural populations. In Sweden, the natterjack toad Bufo calamita inhabits two separate distribution areas, one in southernmost Sweden and one on the west coast. We characterized the larval habitat in terms of pond size and salinity in the two areas, and found that the western populations are more affected by both desiccation risk and pond salinity than the southern populations. In a common garden experiment manipulating salinity and temperature, we found that toads from the west coast populations were locally adapted to shorter pond duration as indicated by their higher development and growth rates. However, despite being subjected to higher salinity stress in nature, west coast toads had a poorer performance in saline treatments. We found that survival in the saline treatments in the west coast populations was positively affected by larger body mass and longer larval period. Furthermore, we found negative genetic correlations between body mass and growth rate and their plastic responses to salinity. These results implicate that the occurrence of multiple environmental stressors needs to be accounted for when assessing the adaptive potential of organisms and suggest that genetic correlations may play a role in constraining adaptation of natural populations.

Climate change alters reproductive isolation and potential gene flow in an annual plant

Climate change will likely cause evolution due not only to selection but also to changes in reproductive isolation within and among populations. We examined the effects of a natural drought on the timing of flowering in two populations of Brassica rapa and the consequences for predicted reproductive isolation and potential gene flow. Seeds were collected before and after a 5-year drought in southern California from two populations varying in soil moisture. Lines derived from these seeds were raised in the greenhouse under wet and drought conditions. We found that the natural drought caused changes in reproductive timing and that the changes were greater for plants from the wet than from the dry site. This differential shift caused the populations to become more phenological similar, which should lead to less reproductive isolation and increased gene flow. We estimated a high level of assortative mating by flowering time, which potentially contributed to the rapid evolution of phenological traits following the drought. Estimates of assortative mating were higher for the wet site population, and assortative mating was reduced following the drought. This study shows that climate change can potentially alter gene flow and reproductive isolation within and among populations, strongly influencing evolution.

Quantitative trait evolution and environmental change

BACKGROUND

Given the recent changes in climate, there is an urgent need to understand the evolutionary ability of populations to respond to these changes.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We performed individual-based simulations with different shapes of the fitness curve, different heritabilities, different levels of density compensation, and different autocorrelation of environmental noise imposed on an environmental trend to study the ability of a population to adapt to changing conditions. The main finding is that when there is a positive autocorrelation of environmental noise, the outcome of the evolutionary process is much more unpredictable compared to when the noise has no autocorrelation. In addition, we found that strong selection resulted in a higher load, and more extinctions, and that this was most pronounced when heritability was low. The level of density-compensation was important in determining the variance in load when there was strong selection, and when genetic variance was lower when the level of density-compensation was low.

CONCLUSIONS

The strong effect of the details of the environmental fluctuations makes predictions concerning the evolutionary future of populations very hard to make. In addition, to be able to make good predictions we need information on heritability, fitness functions and levels of density compensation. The results strongly suggest that patterns of environmental noise must be incorporated in future models of environmental change, such as global warming.

Global warming and sexual plant reproduction

The sexual reproductive phase in plants might be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming. The direct effect of temperature changes on the reproductive process has been documented previously, and recent data from other physiological processes that are affected by rising temperatures seem to reinforce the susceptibility of the reproductive process to a changing climate. But the reproductive phase also provides the plant with an opportunity to adapt to environmental changes. Understanding phenotypic plasticity and gametophyte selection for prevailing temperatures, along with possible epigenetic changes during this process, could provide new insights into plant evolution under a global-warming scenario.

Plasticity and stress tolerance override local adaptation in the responses of Mediterranean holm oak seedlings to drought and cold

Plant populations of widely distributed species experience a broad range of environmental conditions that can be faced by phenotypic plasticity or ecotypic differentiation and local adaptation. The strategy chosen will determine a population's ability to respond to climate change. To explore this, we grew Quercus ilex (L.) seedlings from acorns collected at six selected populations from climatically contrasting localities and evaluated their response to drought and late season cold events. Maximum photosynthetic rate (A(max)), instantaneous water use efficiency (iWUE), and thermal tolerance to freeze and heat (estimated from chlorophyll fluorescence versus temperature curves) were measured in 5-month-old seedlings in control (no stress), drought (water-stressed), and cold (low suboptimal temperature) conditions. The observed responses were similar for the six populations: drought decreased A(max) and increased iWUE, and cold reduced A(max) and iWUE. All the seedlings maintained photosynthetic activity under adverse conditions (drought and cold), and rapidly increased their iWUE by closing stomata when exposed to drought. Heat and freeze tolerances were similarly high for seedlings from all the populations, and they were significantly increased by drought and cold, respectively; and were positively related to each other. Differences in seedling performance across populations were primarily induced by maternal effects mediated by seed size and to a lesser extent by idiosyncratic physiologic responses to drought and low temperatures. Tolerance to multiple stresses together with the capacity to physiologically acclimate to heat waves and cold snaps may allow Q. ilex to cope with the increasingly stressful conditions imposed by climate change. Lack of evidence of physiologic seedling adaptation to local climate may reflect opposing selection pressures to complex, multidimensional environmental conditions operating within the distribution range of this species.

Ecomorphological predictors of natal dispersal distances in birds

1. Dispersal is one of the key ecological parameters but it is very difficult to quantify directly. As a consequence, empirical studies often ignore dispersal or use indirect measures. 2. Ringing data have previously been used to estimate the natal dispersal distances of 47 British passerine bird species. This provides an excellent opportunity to examine the potential of various indirect measures to predict natal dispersal distances in British birds. 3. We use a phylogenetic comparative framework and single- and multipredictor models including ecomorphological, behavioural or ecological traits to predict natal dispersal distance. 4. A multipredictor model that includes Kipp's distance (a measure of wing tip length), bill depth and tail graduation explains 45% of the interspecific variation in natal dispersal distance. These morphological characters all relate to aerodynamics with stronger flyers dispersing further. 5. However, an index of migration is a strong (but less informative) correlate of dispersal distance and Kipp's distance and bill depth are strong correlates of migration. Thus, we cannot disentangle whether these ecomorphological traits influence dispersal distance directly or whether the relationship between ecomorphology and dispersal is mediated through migratory behaviour. 6. Notwithstanding uncertainties regarding the causal links between dispersal distance and wing morphology, we suggest that two ecomorphological traits, Kipp's distance and bill depth, may provide a useful surrogate.

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity. The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions. Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.

Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau's woods are driven by climate change

Climate change has led to major changes in the phenology (the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) of some species but not others. The extent to which flowering-time response to temperature is shared among closely related species might have important consequences for community-wide patterns of species loss under rapid climate change. Henry David Thoreau initiated a dataset of the Concord, Massachusetts, flora that spans approximately 150 years and provides information on changes in species abundance and flowering time. When these data are analyzed in a phylogenetic context, they indicate that change in abundance is strongly correlated with flowering-time response. Species that do not respond to temperature have decreased greatly in abundance, and include among others anemones and buttercups [Ranunculaceae pro parte (p.p.)], asters and campanulas (Asterales), bluets (Rubiaceae p.p.), bladderworts (Lentibulariaceae), dogwoods (Cornaceae), lilies (Liliales), mints (Lamiaceae p.p.), orchids (Orchidaceae), roses (Rosaceae p.p.), saxifrages (Saxifragales), and violets (Malpighiales). Because flowering-time response traits are shared among closely related species, our findings suggest that climate change has affected and will likely continue to shape the phylogenetically biased pattern of species loss in Thoreau's woods.

Geographical variation in the response to nitrogen deposition in Arabidopsis lyrata petraea

The adaptive responses to atmospheric nitrogen deposition for different European accessions of Arabidopsis lyrata petraea were analysed using populations along a strong atmospheric N-deposition gradient. Plants were exposed to three N-deposition rates, reflecting the rates at the different locations, in a full factorial design. Differences between accessions in the response to N were found for important phenological and physiological response variables. For example, plants from low-deposition areas had higher nitrogen-use efficiencies (NUE) and C : N ratios than plants from areas high in N deposition when grown at low N-deposition rates. The NUE decreased in all accessions at higher experimental deposition rates. However, plants from high-deposition areas showed a limited capacity to increase their NUE at lower experimental deposition rates. Plants from low-deposition areas had faster growth rates, higher leaf turnover rates and shorter times to flowering, and showed a greater increase in growth rate in response to N deposition than those from high-deposition areas. Indications for adaptation to N deposition were found, and results suggest that adaptation of plants from areas high in N deposition to increased N deposition has resulted in the loss of plasticity.

Divergence with gene flow between Ponto-Caspian refugia in an anadromous cyprinid Rutilus frisii revealed by multiple gene phylogeography

The Black and Caspian Seas have experienced alternating periods of isolation and interconnection over many Milankovitch climate oscillations and most recently became separated when the meltwater overflow from the Caspian Sea ceased at the end of the last glaciation. Climate-induced habitat changes have indisputably had profound impacts on distribution and demography of aquatic species, yet uncertainties remain about the relative roles of isolation and dispersal in the response of species shared between the Black and Caspian Sea basins. We examined these issues using phylogeographical analysis of an anadromous cyprinid fish Rutilus frisii. Bayesian coalescence analyses of sequence variation at two nuclear and one mitochondrial genes suggest that the Black and Caspian Seas supported separate populations of R. frisii during the last glaciation. Parameter estimates from the fitted isolation-with-migration model showed that their separation was not complete, however, and that the two populations continued to exchange genes in both directions. These analyses also suggested that majority of migrations occurred during the Pleistocene, showing that the variation shared between the Black and Caspian Seas is the result of ancient dispersal along the temporary natural connections between the basins, rather than of incomplete lineage sorting or recent human-mediated dispersal. Gene flow between the refugial populations was therefore an important source of genetic variation, and we suggest that it facilitated the evolutionary response of the populations to changing climate.

Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses

Rapid climate change is likely to impose strong selection pressures on traits important for fitness, and therefore, microevolution in response to climate-mediated selection is potentially an important mechanism mitigating negative consequences of climate change. We reviewed the empirical evidence for recent microevolutionary responses to climate change in longitudinal studies emphasizing the following three perspectives emerging from the published data. First, although signatures of climate change are clearly visible in many ecological processes, similar examples of microevolutionary responses in literature are in fact very rare. Second, the quality of evidence for microevolutionary responses to climate change is far from satisfactory as the documented responses are often - if not typically - based on nongenetic data. We reinforce the view that it is as important to make the distinction between genetic (evolutionary) and phenotypic (includes a nongenetic, plastic component) responses clear, as it is to understand the relative roles of plasticity and genetics in adaptation to climate change. Third, in order to illustrate the difficulties and their potential ubiquity in detection of microevolution in response to natural selection, we reviewed the quantitative genetic studies on microevolutionary responses to natural selection in the context of long-term studies of vertebrates. The available evidence points to the overall conclusion that many responses perceived as adaptations to changing environmental conditions could be environmentally induced plastic responses rather than microevolutionary adaptations. Hence, clear-cut evidence indicating a significant role for evolutionary adaptation to ongoing climate warming is conspicuously scarce.

Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds

Background

Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

For six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.

Conclusions/Significance

Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.

Molecular ecology of global change

Global environmental change is altering the selection regime for all biota. The key selective factors are altered mean, variance and seasonality of climatic variables and increase in CO(2) concentration itself. We review recent studies that document rapid evolution to global climate change at the phenotypic and genetic level, as a response to shifts in these factors. Among the traits that have changed are photoperiod responses, stress tolerance and traits associated with enhanced dispersal. The genetic basis of two traits with a critical role under climate change, stress tolerance and photoperiod behaviour, is beginning to be understood for model organisms, providing a starting point for candidate gene approaches in targeted nonmodel species. Most studies that have documented evolutionary change are correlative, while selection experiments that manipulate relevant variables are rare. The latter are particularly valuable for prediction because they provide insight into heritable change to simulated future conditions. An important gap is that experimental selection regimes have mostly been testing one variable at a time, while synergistic interactions are likely under global change. The expanding toolbox available to molecular ecologists holds great promise for identifying the genetic basis of many more traits relevant to fitness under global change. Such knowledge, in turn, will significantly advance predictions on global change effects because presence and polymorphism of critical genes can be directly assessed. Moreover, knowledge of the genetic architecture of trait correlations will provide the necessary framework for understanding limits to phenotypic evolution; in particular as lack of critical gene polymorphism or entire pathways, metabolic costs of tolerance and linkage or pleiotropy causing negative trait correlations. Synergism among stressor impacts on organismal function may be causally related to conflict among transcriptomic syndromes specific to stressor types. Because adaptation to changing environment is always contingent upon the spatial distribution of genetic variation, high-resolution estimates of gene flow and hybridization should be used to inform predictions of evolutionary rates.

Key issues in achieving an integrative perspective on stress

An integrative perspective on molecular mechanisms of stress resistance requires understanding of these mechanisms not just in vitro or in the model organism in the research laboratory - but in the healthy or diseased human in society,in the cultivated plant or animal in agricultural production,and in populations and species in natural communities and ecosystems. Such understanding involves careful attention to the context in which the organism normally undergoes stress,and appreciation that biological phenomena occur at diverse levels of organization (from molecule to ecosystem). Surprisingly,three issues fundamental to achieving an integrative perspective are presently unresolved: (i) Is variation in lower-level traits (nucleotide sequences, genes, gene products) seldom, commonly, or always consequential for stress resistance? (ii) Does environmental stress reduce or enhance genetic variation, which is the raw material of evolution? (iii) Is the present distribution of organisms along natural gradients of stress largely the result of organisms living where they can, or is adaptive evolution generally sufficient to overcome stress? Effective collaboration among disciplinary specialists and meta-analysis may be helpful in resolving these issues.

Species Richness and Evolutionary Niche Dynamics: A Spatial Pattern–Oriented Simulation Experiment

Evolutionary processes underlying spatial patterns in species richness remain largely unexplored, and correlative studies lack the theoretical basis to explain these patterns in evolutionary terms. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to evaluate, under a pattern-oriented modeling approach, whether evolutionary niche dynamics (the balance between niche conservatism and niche evolution processes) can provide a parsimonious explanation for patterns in species richness. We model the size, shape, and location of species' geographical ranges in a multivariate heterogeneous environmental landscape by simulating an evolutionary process in which environmental fluctuations create geographic range fragmentation, which, in turn, regulates speciation and extinction. We applied the model to the South American domain, adjusting parameters to maximize the correspondence between observed and predicted patterns in richness of about 3,000 bird species. Predicted spatial patterns, which closely resemble observed ones (r2=0.795), proved sensitive to niche dynamics processes. Our simulations allow evaluation of the roles of both evolutionary and ecological processes in explaining spatial patterns in species richness, revealing the enormous potential of the link between ecology and historical biogeography under integrated theoretical and methodological frameworks.

Ecosystem assembly and terrestrial carbon balance under elevated CO(2)

Research aimed at understanding how the global carbon balance will change with elevated CO(2) has largely ignored the responses of individual species and genotypes. Yet, plant traits strongly influence the biogeochemical cycling of carbon. Here, we illustrate how differences in inter- and intraspecific responses to elevated CO(2) affect not only physiology and growth, but also higher order biotic interactions and lifetime fitness, ultimately leading to new ecosystem assemblages. We assert that the unique combination of inter- and intraspecific traits in these ecosystem assemblages ultimately determine how ecosystems respond to elevated atmospheric CO(2). Thus, the identity of species and genotypes in an ecosystem is a crucial element to consider in forecasts of global carbon balance.

POLEWARD SHIFTS IN WINTER RANGES OF NORTH AMERICAN BIRDS

Climate change is thought to promote the poleward movement of geographic ranges; however, the spatial dynamics, mechanisms, and regional anthropogenic drivers associated with these trends have not been fully explored. We estimated changes in latitude of northern range boundaries, center of occurrence, and center of abundance for 254 species of winter avifauna in North America from 1975 to 2004. After accounting for the effect of range size and the location of the northern boundary, positive latitudinal trends were evident for the northern boundary (1.48 km/yr), center of occurrence (0.45 km/yr), and center of abundance (1.03 km/yr). The northern boundary, when examined across individual species, had the most variable trends (SD = 7.46 km/yr) relative to the center of occurrence (SD = 2.36 km/yr) and center of abundance (SD = 5.57 km/yr). Trends did not differ based on migratory status, but there was evidence that trends differed for species with ranges centered in the southern vs. northern portion of the study area. Species occurred more sporadically over time at northern range boundaries, and northern boundaries were associated with a concentration of colonization and extirpation events, with a greater prevalence of colonization events likely promoting poleward trends. Regional anthropogenic drivers explained approximately 8% of the trend for the northern boundary, 14% for the center of occurrence, and 18% for the center of abundance; however, these effects were localized in the northern portion of species' ranges and were associated with distributional changes within ranges, primarily abundance, producing patterns that mimicked poleward movements. We conclude that poleward distributional shifts represent the interaction between climate change and regional factors whose outcome is determined by the scale of the analysis and the biotic and abiotic features in the region, and how anthropogenic activities have impacted these features.

Genetic composition of resident populations influences establishment success of immigrant species

We conducted an outdoor container experiment to test the hypothesis that the genetic composition of resident populations influences the establishment success of immigrant species. We manipulated the genetic compositions (source populations) of populations of the water flea Daphnia magna, a strong competitor in pond and shallow lake zooplankton communities, and monitored the establishment success of immigrant cladoceran species of a regional species pool. We show that establishment success is affected by the source population of the resident D. magna as well as by the presence/absence of macrophytes and the presence/absence of fish in the containers. Our results provide evidence that the genetic composition of resident populations can impact community assembly and metacommunity dynamics, and that community genetics can influence ecosystem functioning.

Natural selection and climate change: temperature-linked spatial and temporal trends in gene frequency in Fagus sylvatica

Rapid increases in global temperature are likely to impose strong directional selection on many plant populations, which must therefore adapt if they are to survive. Within populations, microgeographic genetic differentiation of individuals with respect to climate suggests that some populations may adapt to changing temperatures in the short-term through rapid changes in gene frequency. We used a genome scan to identify temperature-related adaptive differentiation of individuals of the tree species Fagus sylvatica. By combining molecular marker and dendrochronological data we assessed spatial and temporal variation in gene frequency at the locus identified as being under selection. We show that gene frequency at this locus varies predictably with temperature. The probability of the presence of the dominant marker allele shows a declining trend over the latter half of the 20th century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Our results show that F. sylvatica populations may show some capacity for an in situ adaptive response to climate change. However as reported ongoing distributional changes demonstrate, this response is not enough to allow all populations of this species to persist in all of their current locations.

PREDICTING BIODIVERSITY CHANGE: OUTSIDE THE CLIMATE ENVELOPE, BEYOND THE SPECIES–AREA CURVE

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.

Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules

Patterns of ecotypic variation constitute some of the few 'rules' known to modern biology. Here, we examine several well-known ecogeographical rules, especially those pertaining to body size in contemporary, historical and fossil taxa. We review the evidence showing that rules of geographical variation in response to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological changes through time in response to climate change. These rules hold at various time scales, ranging from contemporary to geological time scales. Patterns of body size variation in response to climate change at the individual species level may also be detected at the community level. The patterns underlying ecotypic variation are complex and highly context-dependent, reducing the 'predictive-power' of ecogeographical rules. This is especially true when considering the increasing impact of human activities on the environment. Nonetheless, ecogeographical rules may help interpret the likely influences of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems. Global climate change has already influenced the body size of several contemporary species, and will likely have an even greater impact on animal communities in the future. For this reason, we highlight and emphasise the importance of museum specimens and the continued need for documenting the earth's biological diversity.

Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.